Adv 1 – 5th Fleet
Plan – The United States federal government should increase funding for youth conferences, media groups, and civil society organizations aimed toward political reform in Bahrain initially looking at issues of torture and unfair trials.
Advantage 1 – The Fifth Fleet
Lack of the US enforcing human rights in Bahrain is causing a massive increase of anti-American sentiments among the population threatening our base there
Justin Gengler, Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at the University in Michigan and former Fulbright Fellow to Bahrain, Foreign Policy “”, July 15, 2011,
The rise of this … days of the crisis.
Current instability radicalizes opposition, causes Iran rise and 5th Fleet kick out – action to support democracy is key
Ali al-Ahmed, Director & Joshua Jacobs, Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs “The Crisis in Bahrain” Policy Brief May 2011
The US cannot … for the United States.
Scenario 1- Iran Containment
Bahrain’s base is key to contain Iran because of its location
Ali al-Ahmed, Director & Joshua Jacobs, Gulf Policy Analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs “The Crisis in Bahrain” Policy Brief May 2011
The principle reason …region by taking a sterner stance.
Containment solves Iran Prolif; it shows resolve which changes Iran’s calculations
James M. Lindsay is Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations. Ray Takeyh is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations Foreign Affairs Mar/Apr 2010, Vol. 89, Issue 2 “After Iran Gets the Bomb” EBSCO
Containment could buy … national aspirations.
Most likely scenario for global nuclear war
Kam ‘7 (Ephraim Kam, A Nuclear Iran, Deputy Head, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, http://www.tau.ac.il/jcss/memoranda/memo88.pdf)
The serious consequences … reducing the risk do not yet exist.
Scenario 2- Hegemony
Because of its strategic location the Fifth Fleet is uniquely key to projecting U.S. military power, allowing for a withdraw undermines this goal
Michael Koplovsky, Deputy Chief of Mission @ U.S. Embassy Lusaka, Career Foreign Service Office, October 23, 2006, Precipitating the Inevitable: the Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain, http://govwin.com/knowledge/ precipitating-inevitable-surprisingly-benign-impact/18387
Former Joint Chiefs of … contributes to economic development.
Hegemony solves multiple scenarios for nuclear conflict between nationalist regional hegemons – a multipolar or offshore balancing role is a fantasy
Robert Kagan, 2007 senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [“End of Dreams, Return of History”, 7/19, web)
This is a good thing, and it …involvement will provide an easier path.
Adv 2 – Arab Spring
The failed National Dialogue and recent riots are destabilizing Bahrain proving a revolt is coming without reform
Jane Kinninmont, Senior Research Fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, Foreign Policy, “”, July 18, 2011
Bahrain's National Dialogue … little ground for optimism in the coming months.
Scenario 1- Unions
Bahrain’s unions are being dismantled but are key because they are progressive
Jane Slaughter, Labor Notes, “Union Leaders Arrested in Bahrain Crackdown”, May 27. 2011,
Labor Notes: What was the Bahrain … federation were fired.
Change that happens in Bahrain spills over the rest of the Middle East and World
Arabic Knowledge@Wharton, Public Policy and Management, “Reform, Not Repression: Lessons from the Deadly Unrest in Libya and Bahrain”, Feb. 23, 2011,
"Domestic Bahraini problems …can contain those disputes."
That’s key to the global peace movement: Labor emerged as the leader of the global peace movement during the Iraq War
MARSHALL, chair of the Labor Commission of the Communist Party USA, Political Affairs, “Our Best Defense: Labor and the Anti-war movement”, Jan. 22, 2004,
In response to … working people to improve also.
Scenario 2- Saudi-Arabia Iran Instability
Lack of reforms leads to empowerment of hardline extremists resulting in sectarian violence – spills over to the rest of the middle east
Diwan ’11 (Kristin Smith, Assistant Professor, American University School of International Service, “The Failed Revolution,” March 31//mm)
This outcome is bad for … legitimized such transnational appeals.
Instability in Bahrain will draw in Iran and Saudi Arabia – causes broader regional conflict
[Kenneth Katzman, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, “Bahrain: Reform, Security, and U.S. Policy”, July 7, 2011, online, CMR]
Well before intervening in … on Bahrain’s foreign policy.
Saudi-Arabia/Iran war goes Global
London 10 (Herbert I. London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, Hudson New York, 6/28/10, http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east)
The coming storm in … falls, the tent collapses.
Solvency
The status quo approach of quiet diplomacy is failing – the plan by engaging the youth, media, pushing the government for reform, and holding conferences with civil society groups reverses Anti-Americanism AND creates momentum for reform instead of revolt
Project on Middle East Democracy 11 (6/29, , “Tensions in the Persian Gulf – Roundtable Discussion, Participants included: On Wednesday, the Project on Middle East Democracy hosted a panel discussion on recent developments in Bahrain and the impact on political dynamics in the Gulf region. Stephen McInerney, Executive Director, POMED, moderated the discussion. Panelists included Joe Stork, Deputy Director of Middle East and North Africa Division, Human Rights Watch; Hans Hogrefe, Chief Policy Officer and Washington Director, Physicians for Human Rights; Leslie Campbell, Senior Associate and Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa, National Democratic Institute; and Ambassador Martin Indyk, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution.)
Stork reiterated the necessity that the U.S. “… impact” on U.S. foreign policy in the region.
Non-violent youth movements no longer have control – engaging the youth is critical to stop radicalized violent groups from having boots on the ground
International Crisis Group 11 “POPULAR PROTESTS IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (III): THE BAHRAIN REVOLT” , Middle East/North Africa Report N°105 – 6 April 2011
In addition to the … taken the lead.