The democratic potential of Tunisia’s Jasmine revolution could be lost due to inertia or a restoration of the old regime – elections are the central internal link to democratic success and democracy assistance can be used to create a credible, free framework for citizen participation.
Allen 11
Michael Allen, editor of Democracy Digest, 2011 (January 24, New authority will safeguard Tunisia’s democratic revolution (so will the army), http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/01/new-council-will-safeguard-tunisias-democratic-revolution-and-so-will-the-army/)
"News of the council" AND "democratic learning, he argues."
PLAN: The United States federal government should substantially increase democracy assistance to Tunisia by offering elections assistance and support for the October 23 elections.
Our advantage is Tunisian Stability –
Tunisian leaders would welcome American assistance and see it as necessary to create an equal playing field – success would create a model for the rest of the Arab world
Allen 11
Michael Allen, editor of Democracy Digest, 2011 (January 27, Tunisia: home-grown revolution needs foreign support, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/01/home-grown-revolution-needs-foreign-support-say-tunisians/)
"There are promising signs" AND "democracy abroad,” he contends."
It is too early to tell if Tunisia will successfully transition to a democracy now – all of the progress is still reversible at this stage and the entire region is in turmoil – democratic reform ensures stability
Muasher 11
Marwan Muasher, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment , 2011 (January 30, Three Lessons Arab Leaders Can't Ignore, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/01/30/three-lessons-arab-leaders-can-t-ignore/4ff)
"The Arab world is abuzz" AND "destined for more crises."
The July elections were pushed back to October due to technical reasons – credible elections are in doubt and the current stalemate cannot sustain itself, risking reverting the country back to authoritarianism
Ottaway 11
Marina Ottaway, senior associate, Middle East program @ CEIP, 2011 (August 10, Transitional Failure in Egypt and Tunisia, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/08/10/transitional-failure-in-egypt-and-tunisia/4ma4)
"Egypt and Tunisia have entered" AND "prompt an authoritarian response."
While there are positive factors for the transition, there is a dangerous wait until the elections with groups trying to derail the process – successful elections will ensure that Tunisia leaves its revolutionary stage for a period of reform
Ottaway 11
Marina Ottaway, senior associate, Middle East program @ CEIP, 2011 (July 13, Tunisia: The Revolution is Over, Can Reform Continue?, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/07/13/tunisia-revolution-is-over-can-reform-continue/3ljo#)
"Most factors that will affect" AND "addressing the country’s problems."
A free, fair electoral system and election are essential to democratic success in Tunisia – the alternative is authoritarian involution, regional instability, and terrorism
Paciello 11
Maria Cristina Paciello, researcher at the International Affairs Institute and lecturer in economic and political geography of development at the University of Rome, 2011 (May, Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition, MEDPRO Technical Report No. 3, www.ceps.eu/ceps/download/5632)
"If political parties and" AND intentions are not yet clear."
Middle East instability risks extinction
Russell 9
James A. Russell, Senior Lecturer, National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, 2009 (Spring,
“Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” IFRI, Proliferation Papers, #26, http://www.ifri.org/downloads/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf)
"Strategic stability in the region" AND "risk for the entire world."
Scenario 1 – Regional Democracy
Democracy assistance to Tunisia has been promised by the Obama administration, but no specifics have been released – a successful transition would ensure a successful beacon of democracy for three reasons
Arieff 11
Alexis Arieff, analyst in African Affairs @ CRS, 2011 (March 4, Political Transition in Tunisia, www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RS21666.pdf)
"Ben Ali’s departure" AND "requests by the executive branch."
If Tunisia doesn’t succeed in building democracy, no other country can – the US needs to provide assistance to prevent a security vacuum in the region
Carpenter 11
J. Scott Carpenter, Keston family fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2011 (February 24, Help Tunisia First, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/24/help_tunisia_first?page=full)
"Tunisians took back their country" AND "decades of faulty policy."
Middle East democracy would promote economic reform and reduce the likelihood of war and adventurism
Takeyh 11
Ray Takeyh, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, 2011 (February 4, What Democracy Could Bring, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/05/opinion/05iht-edtakeyh05.html)
"What is unfolding in Arab streets" AND "arresting impetuous impulses."
Scenario 2 - AQIM
Instability in Tunisia and the region has disrupted our flow of intelligence and risks exploitation by terrorist groups, particularly al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AP 11
Associated Press, 2011 (May 20, Arab uprising disturbing flow of anti-terror intel, http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/20/arab-uprising-disturbing-flow-of-anti-terror-intel.html)
"Extremist groups such as" AND "the EU’s police agency."
AQIM is growing and looking to Tunisian instability as a way to leverage support – democratic transition is the best way to decrease extremism through North Africa
Villarosa 11
Shari Villarosa, Deputy Coordinator Regional Affairs, House Committee on Homeland Security, Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations, and Management, 2011 (June 7, DENYING TERRORISTS SAFE HAVENS: EFFORTS TO COUNTER THREATS FROM PAKISTAN, YEMEN, AND SOMALIA, http://www.uspolicy.be/headline/denying-terrorists-safe-havens-efforts-counter-threats-pakistan-yemen-and-somalia)
"Before I talk about Somalia" AND "and marginalizing AQIM."
Addressing terrorism in the Maghreb depends upon US support for the region, particularly soft elements – if we fail we remain hostages and targets of terrorism for the next century
Potomac Institute for Policy Studies 11
Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, 2011 (January, 2011 Report Update The Consequences of Terrorism—An Update on al-Qaeda and other Terrorist Threats in the Sahel & Maghreb, http://www.potomacinstitute.org/attachments/863_2011%20REPORT%20UPDATE%20Maghreb%20%20Sahel%20Terrorism.pdf)
"In sum, a coherent and firm" AND "the 21st century."
Terrorist attack risks extinction
Alexander 3
(Yonah Alexander, Prof and Director of Inter-University for Terrorism Studies, 2003 (August 27, Terrorism Myths and Realities, Washington Times, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2003/aug/27/20030827-084256-8999r/?page=all)
"Last week's brutal suicide" AND "global security concerns."