1AC
Plan: The United States federal government should offer political incentives to members of the Syrian government willing to facilitate a democratic transition.
Contention one: The fall of Assad
Crackdowns continue daily but the people won't give up
Oweis 9/5/11 (Khaled Yacoub Oweis, Reuters, "Syrian forces renew raids near Turkey, kill youth" http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE7841H020110905)
"It's clear now after ... an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam.
Assad will inevitably fall -- it's a question of quick vs. drawn out transition -- absent U.S. Support the result is civil war
Kessler and Doran 8/16
Oren Kessler and Michael S. Doran, is a visiting professor at the Robert F. Wagner Graduate School for Public Service at New York University, Ph.D. in History, Princeton University, An expert on the international politics of the Middle East. “'Iran, not peace process, should drive US policy on Syria'”. Jerusalem Post. 8/16/2011. http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=234031
“The result is ... and to go soon.”
Contention two: Change hurts.
The status quo is a bloody stalemate that gets worse by the day. The regime can’t survive but it won’t give up.
Nakhoul 11
Samia, The Daily Star, “Syria faces slide into sectarian mayhem,” http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Analysis/2011/Jul-26/Syria-faces-slide-into-sectarian-mayhem.ashx#axzz1TFDsP7Vc 7/26
Toppling the system,... no sense of leadership.”
This has resulted in killings and torture that are some of the worst human rights violations ever documented by the Human Rights Watch.
Human Rights Watch 11 (Syria: Crimes Against Humanity. Killings, Torture in a Locked-Down City Under Siege, HRW report, June 1, 2011http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2011/06/01/syria-crimes-against-humanity-daraa)
Systematic killings and torture ... seeking medical care.
Human rights violations leads to Genocide
Kakar 95 (Mohammed, professor at Kabul University, Afghanistan:
The Soviet Invasion and the Afghan Response, 1979-1982 retrieved from UC press, http://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpressebooks/view?docId=ft7b69p12h&chunk.id=d0e5195&toc.depth=1&toc.id=ch05&brand=eschol&query=human+rights)TT
For genocide to ... its model of society.[
GENOCIDE MAKES LIFE AND DEATH MEANINGLESS
Card 3
Claudia, philosophy professor at University of Wisconsin, Winter 2003 (“Genocide and Social Death,” Hypatia, vol. 18, issue 1, ProjectMuse)
Specific to genocide is ... however, is controversial.
genocide is evil from inception—you have to vote for the policy most likely to prevent it
the new republic 2k6 (the editors, who are all imminently qualified, we'll show you the qualifications on a separate piece of paper if you want 'em, "A Plea for action in Darfur" accessed 1-1-07 online at http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20060515&s=editorial051506)sevz
The notion of force ... not at all obvious.
Scenario one is sectarian conflict:
A. Terrorism
The regime’s crackdown functions by simulating sectarian conflict—this will snowball regionally and set the stage for violent state collapse, reinvigorating extremist Wahhabi Islam
Yassin-Kassab 11
Robin, Foreign Policy, “The Fall of the House of Assad,” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/06/10/the_fall_of_the_house_of_assad 6/10
The catalyst in Syria ... in the region.
Wahhabi teaching is the core of militant Islam—its resurgence makes the war on terrorism unwinnable and ensures it will go nuclear.
Alexiev 3
Alex, Senior Fellow, Center for Security Policy, “Terrorism: Growing Wahhabi Influences in the United States,” http://archive.frontpagemag.com/readArticle.aspx?ARTID=17403 7/3
Early on in the ... on terror anytime soon.
B. Middle East Stability
Reform slow at best now – government delays. Quick reform is key to avoiding sectarian violence that escalates to destabilize the entire Middle East
DayPress News August 17
(“Only Democracy could Save Syria,” DayPress News, 2011, http://www.dp-news.com/en/detail.aspx?articleid=93536)
The safeguards of real ... reform-minded elements.
MIDDLE EAST WAR GOES NUCLEAR
Steinbach 2 (John, DC Iraq Coalition, “Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction: a Threat to Peace”, Center for Research on Globalization, 3-3, http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2002/03/00_steinbach_israeli-wmd.htm)
As Israeli society ...a world conflagration." (44)
Scenario Two is Turkey
Prolonged collapse causes a refugee crisis that forces Turkey to intervene in Syria
Nasr 11
Vali, international politics professor at Tufts University’s Fletcher School, “Unrest in Syria Tests Turkey’s Role as Regional Power,” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-13/unrest-in-syria-tests-turkey-s-role-as-regional-power-vali-nasr.html 7/13
Syria’s troubles have ... reform in Syria.
World war 3
The Watchtowers 11
“Iran declares it will attack Turkey if they intervene in Syria,” 6/15 http://www.thewatchtowers.com/iran-declares-it-will-attack-turkey-if-they-intervene-in-syria/
In recent weeks ... Iraq and Afghanistan.”
Contention three: Government in waiting
Using intelligence assets to fracture Alawite solidarity sends a clear signal of support for the resistance that provides a realistic chance for a peaceful and democratic transition.
Weiss and Stuart 11
Michael, Director of Communications and Public Relations A widely published journalist, Weiss has expertise in the Israel-Palestine conflict and human rights in the Middle East and Hannah, Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, The Henry Jackson Society, The Henry Jackson Society: Project for Democratic Geopolitics is a cross-partisan, British-based think-tank, http://www.henryjacksonsociety.org/cms/harriercollectionitems/The+Syrian+opposition.pdf 6/23
The Syrian opposition is ... that this transpires.
U.S. action now is critical to stop Syria from devolving into a civil war, if the U.S. waits until it is too late it will be forced to intervene militarily.
Abrams 8/2
Elliott Abrams, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, handled Middle East affairs at the National Security Council from 2001 to 2009. “Preventing Civil War in Syria”. August 2, 2011. The Wall Street Journal. http://www.cfr.org/syria/preventing-civil-war-syria/p25576
Syria remains rocked ... the Alawite community.
Only the US has the intelligence assets to do so—every other alternative results in crackdowns and a virulently anti-western transition.
Monajad 11
Ausama, leading Syrian dissident and publisher of the daily Syrian Revolution News Roundup, “In Syria, an opening for the West to bring about Assad’s downfall,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/in-syria-an-opening-for-the-west-to-bring-about-assads-downfall/2011/06/24/AGz4hcmH_story.html 6/26
World governments seem ... not their oppressor.
Control of security forces keeps Assad in power—exploiting fissures is key to ending the crackdown
Shadid and Myers 11
Anthony, Steven Lee. “Support for Assad Government Shows Signs of Weakening,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/11/world/middleeast/11syria.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha2 9/10
Through much of his ...with foreign colleagues.
The opposition isn’t sectarian and is better than the regime
Weiss 11
Michael, communications director for the Henry Jackson Society, “The Syrian Opposition: Who are they?” The New Republic http://www.tnr.com/article/world/91253/syrian-opposition-assad-kucinich 7/5
The first sign of .. with the opposition.
Democratic transition in Syria spills over.
Gerecht 11
Reuel Marc, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a contributing editor to The Weekly Standard, “The Syrian Challenge,” The Weekly Standard, July 18, 2011, Vol. 16, No. 41, http://www.weeklystandard.com/print/articles/syrian-challenge_576473.html
As much—even...politics to idealism?
The alternative to democracy is extinction.
Shattuck 94, former US Assistant Secretary of State
John, 9-12-1994, Federal News Service, nexis
On the disintegration ... of Eastern Europe.
