Advantage 1 - Sharks
Since the protests began in 2011, shark populations are rapidly crashing. The risk of ecological destruction is on the brink of spiraling out of control.
Kresh, January 1, 2012 [http://www.greenprophet.com/2012/01/egypts-red-sea-sharks-face-extinction/]
Since last year’s political uprising...Ali, HEPCA’s managing director.
Red Sea sharks are a true keystone species, essential for all biodiversity in the region.
HEPCA, 2011 [http://www.hepca.com/conservation/success-stories/save-red-sea-sharks]
As long living animals with...a single shark at Brothers Islands.
Loss of the red sea sharks risks a trophic cascade, collapsing the entire Red Sea ecosystem, multiple species will be wiped out.
Viney, December 15, 2011 [http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/551641]
Additionally, removing sharks ...eventually impact coral reefs.
The Red Sea is one of the most important biological hotspots on the planet.
Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency, 2011 [http://www.eeaa.gov.eg/English/main/protect_bio.asp]
Egypt is bounded on its north ... the preservation of both especially important.
The coral reefs of Egypt are more important than the Amazon.
Erickson October 11th, 2011. [http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/509569]
The death of these ...reefs is extremely valuable.”
Loss of Ocean biodiversity risks extinction of all Life.
Craig, 2003 [Associate Professor of Law, Indiana University School of Law, Indianapolis, IN.; Taking Steps Toward Marine Wilderness Protection? Fishing and Coral Reef Marine Reserves in Florida and Hawaii; 34 McGeorge L. Rev. 155]
The world's oceans contain...relatively intact to future generations.
Probability is much higher than nukes
Norse 93 [Chief Scientist at the Center for Marine Conservation, 19 93Ed. Global Marine Biological Diversity, p. xvii-xix]
As the 20th century ends...path to the same fate.
Species can’t recover
Ramangkura, 3, [Varamon Ramangkura LL.M., 2003, Georgetown University Law Center; J.S.M., 2002, Stanford Law School; Barrister at Law, 2001, the Thai Bar Association; LL.B., 2000, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand, Georgetown International Environmental Law Review Summer 2003, “Thai shrimp, sea turtles, mangrove forests and the WTO: Innovative environmental protection under the international trade regime” http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3970/is_200307/ai_n9295331/?tag=content;col1
Unlike the damage caused ...for biological diversity.148
Their defense doesn’t apply – based on old studies
Science Daily 11 ["Biodiversity Critical for Maintaining Multiple 'Ecosystem Services'" Cites McGill University, August 19, www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110819155422.htm]
"Most previous studies ...good precautionary approach."
Advantage 2 - Warming
The U.S. environmental leadership is declining now
Hunter et al 12,[ by Center for Progressive Reform Member Scholars Mary Jane Angelo, Professor of Law and Director of the Environmental and Land Use Law Program at the University of Florida Levin College of Law, Rebecca Bratspies, Professor of Law at CUNY School of Law, David Hunter, Professor of Law and Director of the International Legal Studies Program and the Program on International and Comparative Environmental Law at the American University Washington College of Law, John H. Knox, Professor of Law at Wake Forest University School of Law, Noah Sachs, Associate Professor of Law and Director of the Robert R. Merhige, Jr., Center for Environmental Studies at the University of Richmond School of Law, and Sandra Zellmer, Alumni Professor of Natural Resources Law at the University of Nebraska College of Law http://www.progressivereform.org/articles/International_Environmental_Treaties_1201.pdf]
For more than ...and trade in toxic substances.
International environmental action restores leadership
Steinberg & VanDeveer, 10, Paul F. Steinberg is an associate professor of political science and environmental policy at Harvey Mudd College. Stacy D. VanDeveer is an associate professor and scholar of environmental policymaking at the University of New Hampshire, “Opinion: It Takes a Nation to Save a Planet”, 11-30-10, http://www.aolnews.com/2010/11/30/opinion-it-takes-a-nation-to-save-a-planet/
The race to save the Earth ..home and abroad is long overdue.
Leadership allows for multilateral action towards warming
Ivanova and Esty 8 Maria Ivanova, Assistant Professor of Government and Environmental Policy at The College of William and Mary and the Director of the Global Environmental Governance Project at the Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy, and Daniel C. Esty, Hillhouse Professor of Environmental Law and Policy at Yale University and Director of the Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy and the Center for Business & Environment at Yale Summer-Fall 2008, “Reclaiming U.S. Leadership in Global Environmental Governance ” Vol 28 No. 2. http://www.umb.edu/editor_uploads/images/centers_institutes/center_governance_sustain/Ivanova-Esty-SAISReview-2008.pdf
What has confused analysts...of a regulatory character.” 14
US necessary for international climate solutions -- no other country solves.
Eckersley, 2010
[Robyn, school of Social and Political Sciences, University of Melbourne, “Climate Leadership and U.S. Exceptionalism.” http://apsa2010.com.au/full-papers/pdf/APSA2010_0253.pdf]
While climate leadership is ...other developed state. Environmental leadership solves warming
Shepard 10, Don Shepard, Natural Resources/Water Resources University Laboratory Teacher & Former Financial Representative and Army National Guard Accountant, “U.S. Environmental Policy and Leadership”, http://www.brighthub.com/environment/science-environmental/articles/39623.aspx
Will Obama Meet New Standards? ...from our lawmakers.
It is undeniable, global warming is occurring now and is anthropogenic. The data is on our side, CO2 emissions outweigh the alt causes.
Stefan Rahmstorf, 2008, Professor of Physics @ Potsdam University, Member of the German Advisory Council on Climate Change, ‘8
(Global Warming: Looking Beyond Kyoto, ed. Ernesto Zedillo, Prof. IR @ Yale, p. 42-49)
It is time to turn to...reality with which we need to deal.
Warming is real, anthropogenic, and causes extinction.
Deibel ‘7 (Terry L. Deibel, professor of IR at National War College, 2007, Foreign Affairs Strategy, Conclusion: American Foreign
Finally, there is one...of life on this planet
Warming will cause disease spread.
Steffen ’04 [Will, Apr 1, “Abrupt Changes: The Achilles’ Heels of the Earth System,” Accessed via Ebscohost (Environment vol. 46 #3)]
Warmer and wetter conditions ...
Disease spread causes extinction.
Steinbrunner ’97 [John, Senior Fellow at Brookings, Foreign Policy, “Biological Weapons: A Plague Upon all Houses”]
Although human pathogens ...have to lean the other way.
Solvency
We have empirical solvency
HEPCA, 2011 [http://www.hepca.com/conservation/success-stories/save-red-sea-sharks]
As a result of this campaign,...representatives and activists.
But the program ended in 2009
USAID, 2011 [http://egypt.usaid.gov/en/programs/Pages/environmentandnaturalresources.aspx]
Early USAID efforts to...of low density development.
Re-establishing the Red Sea Rangers is key.
Aufmuth and Smith, 2006 [Professors of Geoscience and Satellite Technology, University of Florida; https://darchive.mblwhoilibrary.org/bitstream/handle/1912/1481/proc05113.pdf?sequence=1] There are approximately 40 Red Sea Rangers.
The Ranger’s assignments... and remote sensing for mapping.
Egypt will say yes. HEPCA is already fully registered with the Egyptian Government and worked to protect the Red Sea ecosystem through civil society initiatives.
HEPCA 2011 [http://www.hepca.com/about/mission]
In 1995 HEPCA was registered ...and monitoring strategies.
HEPCA must have USAID support to implement its civil society projects.
HEPCA, 2011. [http://www.hepca.com/about/]
As a non-profit organization...and many others.
Observation 4: No disads
Aid to Egypt is guaranteed and has been increased – Camp David Accords
The Jerusalem Post 2/12 [February 12th. Brotherhood lawmaker: US aid to Cairo ‘assured.’ Accessed February 18, 2012]
US aid to Egypt is...an infringement on the country’s sovereignty.
No risk of global nuclear war – Great Powers won’t fight and rogue states aren’t a threat
Charles Peña a senior fellow with the Coalition for a Realistic Foreign Policy, 2006 [February 16, More Defense Spending, Less Security http://www.antiwar.com/pena/?articleid=8546
Unsound fiscal practices aside...less than 5.5 percent of U.S. GDP.
Multiple factors prevent a great power war – deterrence, cost, democracy, security agreements.
Mandelbaum, Professor of American Foreign Policy at Johns Hopkins University, 1999
Michael, Christian A. Herter Professor of American Foreign Policy, The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; Director, Project on East-West Relations, Council on Foreign Relations “Is Major War Obsolete?”
Why is this so? Most simply...against an attack on a king.”
Default to the irreversible
MARTIN ’82 [writer for Journal of Peace Research, http://www.bmartin.cc/pubs/82jpr.html]
Most of the continuing large...the way to achieve this.
Plan: United States federal government should substantially increase its democracy assistance for Egypt by increasing funding, training and technical assistance to the Egyptian Environmental (EEAA) Affairs Agency and the Hurghada Environmental Protection and Conservation Association (HEPCA) for rule of law enforcement, civil society promotion and good governance of the Wadi El Gemal National Park
