Swing 1AC
Plan- United States federal government should provide expertise and materials to foster democratic groups, initiatives and institutions that are already working towards a more democratic society in Bahrain.
Advantage 1- The fifth Fleet
First, the removal of the fifth fleet from Bahrain is inevitable regardless of the result of the protests
Bahraini government support for the US is decreasing they want the fifth fleet to leave
Justin Gengler is a Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at the University in Michigan and former Fulbright Fellow to Bahrain. The other side of radicalization in Bahrain, The Middle East Channel. July 15, 2011 http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/15/the_other_side_of_radicalization_in_bahrain
In a July 6 interview ….
….. the early days of the crisis.
And, the Hardliners are in charge in Bahrain the response to protests prove
Toby C. Jones - Toby C. Jones is assistant professor of history at Rutgers University.Time to Disband the Bahrain-Based U.S. Fifth Fleet, The Atlantic. June 10, 2011. http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-based-us-fifth-fleet/240243/?single_page=true
Whatever opening ….
….. defeat the forces of democracy.
And even if the protestors win out—the US has permanently ruined relations with the protestors
Elliott Abrams is a senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Formerly deputy national security adviser on Middle East affairs in the George W. Bush administration, Abrams was also an assistant secretary of state for UN affairs, human rights, and Latin America in the Reagan administration. U.S. Hypocrisy on Bahrain, The Atlantic. September 19, 2011 http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/09/us-hypocrisy-on-bahrain/245283/
In Bahrain, ….
…..direct their own destinies.
This will cause the US to try to relocate its naval base in the region
The Trench, is a manifestation of Octopus Mountain, an organization designed to counter the suppression of foreign policy debate in the American media. Political science has decayed and must be revived. The Trench analyzes asymmetric and fourth generation warfare (4GW), counterinsurgency (COIN), propaganda, and human nature to predict future events. The Trench offers a refuge for realists, and a foreign policy arena for those craving a deeper discourse on geopolitics. Winds of Change Rocking Bahrain’s Fifth Fleet, The Trench. July 22, 2011 http://hadalzone.blogspot.com/2011/07/winds-of-change-rocking-bahrains-fifth.html
Two sites under ….
……logistically and geopolitically.
The aff ensures that the US can’t find a home for its naval forces
Shmuel Bar is director of studies at the Institute for Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel. America’s Fading Middle East Influence, Hoover Institution. April 1, 2011 http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/73161
The Arab revolts …
…..been dramatically degraded.
This causes the US to shift to offshore balancing
Michael Koplovsky, FS-01, Foreign Service. PRECIPITATING THE INEVITABLE: THE SURPRINGLY BENIGN
IMPACT OF LOSING BASING RIGHTS IN BAHRAIN, Naval War College. 23 October 2006 http://dodreports.com/pdf/ada463412.pdf
Large, permanent, forward ….
…..and operational presence.26
But don’t worry, regional instability wouldn’t occur offshore balancing would prevent Middle East Conflict
CHRISTOPHER LAYNE. America’s Middle East grand strategy after Iraq: the moment for offshore balancing has arrived, Review of International Studies. 2009 http://journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FRIS%2FRIS35_01%2FS0260210509008304a.pdf&code=8f03534ab51907f83e3ad43a422129d3
Advocates of …
….. sea-based cruise missiles.18
Scenario 1- Terrorism
The shift to offshore balancing is critical to prevent terrorist attacks
Michael Koplovsky, FS-01, Foreign Service. PRECIPITATING THE INEVITABLE: THE SURPRINGLY BENIGN
IMPACT OF LOSING BASING RIGHTS IN BAHRAIN, Naval War College. 23 October 2006 http://dodreports.com/pdf/ada463412.pdf
Forward operating ….
….. U.S. facilities in Bahrain.
Fifth Fleet presence will encourage attack from Iran on fleet, leading to full-scale US-Iran war
Salla 07
PhD in Government from the University of Queensland, internationally recognized scholar in international politics, conflict resolution, US foreign policy, and exopolitics, held academic appointment in the School of International Service & the Center for Global Peace, Michael, http://americasherojourney.com/Article-New-Pearl-Harbour.htm,
the Bush administation has …..
……Gulf to the Arabian sea.
This war goes nuclear – draws in Russia and China
Abid Ullah Jan 2006 “Why American will Reap in Iran What It Doesn’t Expect”, Posted February 20, http://mathaba.net/0_index.shtml?x=528456>
Many analysts believe that an attack ….
……"World War 3" can convey.
Scenario 2- Australian Rebasing
The US just opened a naval base in Australia to house marines—this makes your impact turns non unique and makes this the most likely location for the 5th fleet to be moved to
JACKIE CALMES. A U.S. Marine Base for Australia Irritates China, New York Times. November 16, 2011 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/17/world/asia/obama-and-gillard-expand-us-australia-military-ties.html?pagewanted=all
CANBERRA, Australia — President Obama announced ….
…… China militarily and economically.
Current naval strategy is unsustainable---naval power will collapse everywhere unless resources can be rebalanced to more strategically important missions in Asia
Holmes & Yoshihara 11 – James Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara, both associate professors of strategy at the US Naval War College, January 4, 2011, “US Navy’s Indian Ocean Folly?,” The Diplomat, online:
But assume Washington ….
…… Gulf and Indian Ocean.
Middle East naval power trades off with presence in the South China Seas
Robert D. Kaplan 11 is senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, national correspondent for the Atlantic, and a member of the U.S. Defense Department's Defense Policy Board, September/October 2011, “The South China Sea Is the Future of Conflict,” online: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/15/the_south_china_sea_is_the_future_of_conflict?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full
Just as German soil ….
….. actually looks like.
China’s increasing naval supremacy in the Seas now --- only scenario for conflict escalation---kills U.S. supremacy in Asia
Dr Graham Ong-Webb 11 - 3-15 2011, a Managing Editor with IHS Jane's & PhD from the Department of War Studies, King's College London, “How Far Will China's Navy Reach?”, http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/ISN-Insights/Detail?lng=en&id=127560&contextid734=127560&contextid735=127476&tabid=127476
Often discussed in …..
…… planning and procurement.
US hegemony is key to deterring Asian nuclear conflicts
Alagappa, 2003 – Director East-West Center Washington (Asian Security Order, Page 19-20)
Though its alliance ….
…..several Asian countries.
Asian instability causes nuclear war
Paul Kennedy, professor of history at Yale University, January 10, 2000, The Daily Yomiuri (Tokyo), p. Lexis
Over the past two or three decades, ….
……capital in the region.
Advantage 2- US Saudi Relations
First, US Saudi Relations are on the brink now—they are angered with our initial support of the protestors in Bahrain, but the relations are improving because of our current silence on the issue
Ottaway 11 (Marina, Senior Associate Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment, “Bahrain: Between the United States and Saudi Arabia,” April 4, 2011, )
But U.S. concerns in ….
….. take precedence right now.
Scenario 1- Arms Sales
US Selling bunker busters to Saudi Arabia is seen as a threat of war to Iran
Robert Dreyfuss, freelance investigative journalist whose work appeared in The Nation, Rolling Stone, Mother Jones, The American Prospect. Panetta: No War With Iran, The Nation. November 11, 2011 http://www.thenation.com/blog/164559/panetta-no-war-iran
A worrying, and destabilizing ….
….. pulls out of Iraq.
Bunker Busters will cause Middle Eastern arms race
Presstv, US to sell UAE 1,000s of bunker busters. Nov 12, 2011 http://www.presstv.ir/detail/209678.html
The Wall Street …
….. democracy in the region.
Conventional arms race causes war
Simon Tisdall. Obama's hi-tech weapons plan for Gulf sees US reverting to type, the gaurdian. January 31, 2010. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/31/us-advanced-weapons-gulf-plan
Pouring billions of ….
……weapons programmes of their own.
Middle East instability causes global crisis and nuclear war
John Steinbach, nuclear specialist, Secretary of the Hiroshima-Nagasaki Peace Committee of the National Capitol Area, 2002, Centre for Research on Globalisation, “Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction: a Threat to Peace,” http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/STE203A.html
Meanwhile, the existence ….
….. a world conflagration.” (44
Scenario 2- Syrian War
US is gearing up for war against Syria – Arab Spring is its justification
Thierry Meyssan is French intellectual, founder and chairman of Voltaire Network and the Axis for Peace Conference. His columns specializing in international relations feature in daily newspapers and weekly magazines in Arabic, Spanish and Russian. Lies and Truth About Syria, intifada-palestine.com. November 28, 2011 http://www.intifada-palestine.com/2011/11/lies-and-truth-about-syria/
1. One would think ….
….. nuclear military plant.
US Saudi Relations ensures the attack against Syria, this draws in Russia
Robert Tilford, Charlotte City Buzz Examiner, Former soldier US Army, infantry. MOS: 11B1P *Graduate of the US Army Infantry School at Ft. Benning, Georgia. *Graduate US Army Airborne School, Ft. Benning, Georgia. *Studied Ethics at Phoenix College. Religion at Grand Canyon University, Phoenix, Arizona Author: "Digital Espionage are you at risk" and "Social Networking sites and the military". Is the United States secretly preparing for war with Syria?, Examiner.com. November 24, 2011
"Today the United ….
…..Russian military affairs expert.
US Russia War is on the brink now
Samuel Segev, Winnipeg Free Press Middle East correspondent. Cold War returns to Mideast, Winnipeg Free Press. December 6, 2011. http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/westview/cold-war-returns-to-mideast-135086728.html
Instead, attention is focusing ….
….. to the Mediterranean.
Attacking Syria would cause terrorism, regional escalation and would ultimately fail
Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. Middle East negotiator, is a scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and author of the forthcoming book “Can America Have Another Great President?”. Do Not Attack Syria, New York Times. November 18, 2011 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/19/opinion/do-not-attack-syria.html?_r=1
The Assad regime is ….
…… being prepared to support it.
Causes Chemical Weapon Use from Syria
Leonard Spector, Deputy Director of the Monterey Institute of International Studies. Assad's Chemical Romance, Foreign Policy, August 23, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/23/assads_chemical_romance
The continued unrest ….
….. uprising within an hour.
Syrian use of chemical weapons ensures Israeli nuclear response
Hal Lindsey, the best-selling non-fiction writer alive today. Among his 20 books is a newly updated version of "The Everlasting Hatred: The Roots of Jihad." World Daily Net. July 14, 2007 http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=56663
Syria recently test-fired …
….. nuking the Middle East.
US-Russian nuclear war ensures planetary extinction
Caldicott 2002 (Helen- Founder of Physicians for Social Responsibility, The new nuclear danger, p. 7-12)
If launched from ….
….. significant after the September 11 attack.
