First is the Status Quo-- Most of increases in money is going to NGOs in the squo

Hyde, Maggie, AP reporter, Almasry Alyoum, Report: US Seeks to Give Less Money to Egypt’s Military

21 July 2011, http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/479297

The report …..and human rights.

And this aid is required to be Branded by the USAID

Mark Ward, Foreign Service with USAID for 24 years. USAID Assistance in Pakistan, IMPACT blog. October 9, 2010 http://blog.usaid.gov/2010/10/usaid-assistance-in-pakistan/

Day in ….. assistance is coming from.

This causes NGOs to face violence and feel unsafe in the squo

Joe Sterling, CNN. NGOs in Egypt adjust to turmoil, CNN. February 10, 2011 http://articles.cnn.com/2011-02-10/world/egypt.protests.ngos_1_ngos-egypt-share-egyptians?_s=PM:WORLD

Other international ….. time, Fitzcharles said.

NGOs will stop taking funds if the branding requirements put their workers at risk

Tom Paulson. USAID Branding: Pressure still on to end the dangerous desire for self-promotion, Humanosphere. October 21, 2010 http://humanosphere.kplu.org/2010/10/usaid-branding-pressure-still-on-to-end-the-dangerous-desire-for-self-promotion/

It may be …..labels on everything.

And even the NGOs that stay are being kicked out Egypt in the status quo

Gamal Essam El-Din, US Aid to Egypt's Civil Society: A Need, a Blessing and a Curse, Ahram Online, Friday 5 Aug 2011, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContentP/1/17749/Egypt/US-aid-to-Egypts-civil-society-a-need,-a-blessing-.aspx

Several political activists …..money transfers of NGOs

Thus the Plan—United States Agency for International Development should provide waivers from the branding requirements for aid being used in the country of Egypt by Non-Governmental Organizations.

Second is Solvency – the USAID is the actor who would issue the waiver from branding requirements to ensure safety of NGO workers.

Mark Ward, Foreign Service with USAID for 24 years. USAID Assistance in Pakistan, IMPACT blog. October 9, 2010 http://blog.usaid.gov/2010/10/usaid-assistance-in-pakistan/

At the same time, ……limited periods of time.

Advantage 1- Egyptian Democracy --  First, Transition now is key – Egypt is on the brink of backsliding into authoritarianism

Keeler 11 (Chris, journalist specializing in Middle Eastern politics, July 27, “Imposing Security Services By Any Other Name,” http://notesfromamedinah.com/2011/07/27/imposing-security-services-by-any-other-name/) JJN

Almost six months …… for the country.

Second, NGOs empirically are the best for transition to democracy

Cohen and Kupcu 9 (Michael A. and Maria F. “Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Promotion: A Comprehensive Plan for Reform,” April, New America Foundation, http://www.newamerica.net/files/nafmigration/Revitalizing_US_Democracy_Promotion.pdf)

Beyond the five ….. a democratizing society.

Scenario 1- Terrorism --Egyptian democratic success is key to stopping Al Qaeda

Miami Herald 11 (Feb 11, http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/02/11/2062742/egypts-revolution-will-remake.html) MV

WASHINGTON — Egypt's revolution, a ……the rest of the world."

Terrorism causes extinction – draws in Russia and China

Ayson 10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

A terrorist nuclear …… chances of nuclear restraint.

Scenario 2- Middle Eastern Peace -- Democracy key to peace in the Middle East

Kirkup 11 (James Kirkup, Democracy is route to peace in Middle East, says David Cameron, The Telegraph, Feb 21, 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/8339054/Democracy-is-route-to-peace-in-Middle-East-says-David-Cameron.html)

Freedom and democracy …… healthy political parties.

The Middle East is on the brink of a nuclear war

Blake 11 (Heidi Blake, WikiLeaks: tension in the Middle East and Asia has 'direct potential' to lead to nuclear war, The Telegraph, Feb 2, 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8298427/WikiLeaks-tension-in-the-Middle-East-and-Asia-has-direct-potential-to-lead-to-nuclear-war.html)

Tension in the …… through the skin.

Middle East war goes Global

London 10 (Herbert I. London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, Hudson New York, 6/28/10, http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east)

The coming storm ……the tent collapses.

Scenario 3- Failure to democratize Egypt crushes US hegemony in the Middle East

HRF 10 (Human Rights First, November 24, 2010 “Background Report on Egyptian Civil Society Election Monitoring in Upcoming Elections” http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/2010/11/24/background-report-on-egyptian-civil-society-election-monitoring-in-upcoming-elections/ MM)

The U.S. government’s ….. and democracy everywhere.

Heg stops global nuclear war

Zalmay Khalilzad, RAND policy analyst, Spring 1995, The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 2, “Losing the Moment?”

Under the third ….. balance of power system.

Advantage 2- Muslim Brotherhood -- Muslim Brotherhood will dominate Egyptian elections now—Superior organization

Al-Anani 11 (Khalil Al-Anani, May 29, 2010, Scholar at Middle East Institute at Durham University and expert on Islamist Politics, “A Brotherhood Government?,” http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/456025)

The only way to ….. an Islamic one.

US assistance is able to make other political parties viable in the election

Hanley March 13, 2011 Charles J. Hanley is a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist “US training quietly nurtured young Arab democrats” http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2011/Mar/13/us_training_quietly_nurtured_young_arab_democrats.html MM

National Endowment money, …… civic involvement.

Muslim Brotherhood will start a war with Israel

Spencer 11 (Robert Spencer, director of Jihad Watch, May 31, 2011, “Egypt Rushes Towards Sharia and War,” http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=43807)

How hopelessly at …… a friend of Israel.”

Escalatory nuclear war

Eldar 3 (Dan Eldar, adjunct research fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv University, former senior analyst at the Israeli prime minister's office, “Egypt and Israel: A Reversible Peace,” The Middle East Quarterly, Fall 2003, pp. 57-65)

In addition, there ……for the entire region.

Muslim Brotherhood coming to power in Egypt will lead to a break in the Israeli/Egyptian Peace Treaty and Egyptian Nuclear Proliferation

Russel in 2010
 Richard, (Dr. Richard L. Russell is Professor of National Security Affairs in the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic
 Studies at the National Defense University and Adjunct Professor of Security Studies in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University.)  JFQ / issue 58, 3d quarter 2010 Off and Running The Middle East Nuclear Arms Race http://www.ndu.edu/press/lib/images/jfq-58/JFQ58_94-99_Russell.pdf

Egypt might make ….. of Egypt’s regime

Unchecked, proliferation causes nuclear war and extinction.

Victor A. Utgoff 2002, Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analysis, Survival, “Proliferation, Missile Defence and American Ambitions” 2002 p. 87-90

In sum, widespread …… whole nations.

Muslim Brotherhood will also shut down the Suez Canal causing massive oil shocks

Hilliker 11 (Joel Hilliker, February 2, 2011, “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Close the Suez Canal?,” The Trumpet, http://www.thetrumpet.com/?q=7928.6537.0.0)

Almost immediately ……forces to invade.

Suez closure causes US intervention and escalatory nuclear war

Nazemroaya 11 (Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), February, 13, 2011, “THE DIVISION OF EGYPT: THREATS OF US, ISRAELI, AND NATO MILITARY INTERVENTION?” http://www.setyoufreenews.com/2011/02/division-of-egypt-threats-of-us-israeli.html)

Recall the 1956 Invasion …… overseas and domestic militarization.

Even brief closure of the Suez Canal collapses the world economy

Brockmeyer 11 (Peter Brockmeyer, studied in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and the Economics Department at the London School of Economics, February 1, 2011, PolicyMic, “The Suez Canal: What Happens If Egypt Shuts It Down?,” http://www.policymic.com/beta/business-economy/suez-canal-what-happens-if-egypt-shuts-it-down)

In the midst of the …… route will impair supplies, too.

Oil shocks empirically collapse growth—Kill consumption and spike inflation

Roubini & Setser 4 (Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Business, Brad Setser, Research Associate, Global Economic Governance Programme, University College, Oxford, August 2004, online)

Oil prices shocks …… a good example.

Extinction

Bearden 2000 (Lt. Col Thomas E. Bearden, PhD, MS, BSCo-inventor - the 2002 Motionless Electromagnetic Generator - a replicated overunity EM generator Listed in Marquis' Who'sWho in America, 2004)

Just prior to the ……. of it, resulting.

AT:Elections fail to produce effective democratic governments – Even if it is successful it can work fast enough to effect the upcoming election

The Business Insider, June 13, 2011 Monday 11:16 AM EST

HEADLINE: The Conservative Revolutionary: Why America Can't Rely On Revolutions To Fix Its Foreign Policy

BYLINE: Walter Russell Mead

We do not agree ….. a fools game.

Egyptian Illiteracy prevents effectiveness of Election assistance

Daily News Egypt, June 13, 2011 Monday

HEADLINE: Why is the Egyptian public so misinformed about Israel?

Four major factors …… analyses about Israel.

Egypt Democratic Transition will be successful in the squo – US influence only undermines transition security
 Democracy Digest June 14, 2011
 “Egyptian officials attack democracy assistance, as NGOs challenge ‘troubling’ transition”

<http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/06/egyptian-officials-attack-democracy-assistance-as-ngos-challenge-troubling-transition/>

Senior government ….. ourselves,” another said

US democracy assistance undermines Egyptian Democratic Assistance.

Democracy Digest June 14, 2011

“Egyptian officials attack democracy assistance, as NGOs challenge ‘troubling’ transition”

<http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/06/egyptian-officials-attack-democracy-assistance-as-ngos-challenge-troubling-transition/>

The Egyptian authorities ….. still there,” said a U.S. official.

Status Quo military control in Egypt is best.  US involvement will just destroy any chance of successful democracies.

Atran in 2011
 scott, Scott Atran, an anthropologist at France's National Center for Scientific Research, the University of Michigan, New York Times, Feb. 3

A military in control …… power in the end.''

Egypt is unique – Studies indicate Egypt is the one place where US democracy assistance has no significant impact.  Several factors make Egypt unique

Mcginty July 12, 2011

“U.S. Democracy Promotion in Egypt: a Critique of USAID”

<http://arabspringresearch.wordpress.com/2011/07/12/introduction/>

Democracy promotion ……. Egyptian citizens.

Egypt is wary of US intentions, no trust = no successful assistance

Kathy Lally and Mary Beth Sheridan  March 5, 2011
 “U.S. offers aid for Egyptian democracy, but quietly” 
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/04/AR2011030402248.html>

Now that the old ……that oppressed them.

Turkey is expanding its influence in the middle east as a way to counter and distance itself from US Hegemony.  Turkey is embracing its role as an Islamic, democratic government to shape middle Eastern Policy

McNamara, Cohen and Phillips in 2010
 “Countering Turkey’s Strategic Drift” Heritage Foundation, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/07/countering-turkey-s-strategic-drift

By distancing ……of the Middle East.

Alessandri in 2011
 Emiliano, “Turkey and the United States” http://www2.lse.ac.uk/IDEAS/publications/reports/pdf/SR007/us.pdf

One thing is certain……..Armenian Diaspora.

Turkish hegemony in the region fosters peace and stability due to its unique relationship with all actors in the middle east.

Brouwer in 2011

Rick, MA International Relations/International Organization (University of Groningen)

“Turkey’s Position in the Middle East: Regional Hegemon or Peripheral Bystander? http://scripties.let.eldoc.ub.rug.nl/FILES/root/Master/DoorstroomMasters/InternationaleBetrek/2011/BrouwerR.M./MA-1454269-R.Brouwer.pdf

What is the level ……. regional hegemony

Turkish involvement creates successful democratic transitions.  Turkish Regional involvement better then the US 

Brouwer in 2011

Rick, MA International Relations/International Organization (University of Groningen)

“Turkey’s Position in the Middle East: Regional Hegemon or Peripheral Bystander? http://scripties.let.eldoc.ub.rug.nl/FILES/root/Master/DoorstroomMasters/InternationaleBetrek/2011/BrouwerR.M./MA-1454269-R.Brouwer.pdf

Part of the Turkish ……. this method.

AT: All disads are non-uniq.  US giving asst now

White house has not expanded Dem. Asst allocations for the Middle East.  Tight budgets make allocation expansion impossible.  

Warren P. Strobel, “Like new Middle East, Obama doctrine is a work in progress”, March 4, 2011, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/03/04/v-print/109865/like-new-middle-east-obama-doctrine.html, CMR WASHINGTON — Sens. John McCain …….. the senior official said.  

Obama has made pledges but has not increased funding allocations which means our disad is  unique.

Baram 11 (Marcus, writer for the huffington post, Obama Administration Cut Funding To Promote Democracy In Egypt, Disappointing Human Rights Activists, Huffington Post, January 28, 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/28/obama-cut-egypt-funding_n_815731.html, MCL)

President Obama's …….. job on civil society

Attempts to exclude the muslim brotherhood from the democratic process will strengthen the less moderate faction of the brotherhood and destroy any successful democratic transition.

Foreign Affairs, Feb. 3, 2011
 CARRIE ROSEFSKY WICKHAM is Associate Professor of Political Science at Emory University “The Muslim Brotherhood After Mubarak” CARRIE ROSEFSKY http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67348/carrie-rosefsky-wickham/the-muslim-brotherhood-after-mubarak

The Brotherhood ……. can succeed without it.

Reports of Ties between the Muslim Brotherhood and Terrorists are false

Atran in 2011
 scott, Scott Atran, an anthropologist at France's National Center for Scientific Research, the University of Michigan, New York Times, Feb. 3

People in the West ….. ''the street'' knew the truth.

There is no risk the new Egyptian Government will break the peace treaty with Israel and start a war

Bahgat in 2011
Dr. Gawdat Bahgat is a professor of political science at the United States’ National Defense University.”The Egyptian Military: What Lies Ahead” The Al Jazzeera Network, http://www.aljazeera.net/mritems/streams/2011/2/24/1_1044101_1_51.pdf

The question …… and obligations’

A Rush to democracy in Egypt will just lead to a military coup after elections

No Risk of a Muslim Brotherhood takeover of Egypt

Atran in 2011
 scott, Scott Atran, an anthropologist at France's National Center for Scientific Research, the University of Michigan, New York Times, Feb. 3

But there is little …… last find hope at home.

No Risk of an Extremist muslim brotherhood taking over in Egypt – The brotherhood has renounced violence and pledged to work towards a coalition democratic government

Bahgat in 2011
 Dr. Gawdat Bahgat is a professor of political science at the United States’ National Defense University.”The Egyptian Military: What Lies Ahead” The Al Jazzeera Network, http://www.aljazeera.net/mritems/streams/2011/2/24/1_1044101_1_51.pdf

For most of the ……. to work together. 

The Muslim Brotherhood is not radical.  They are more moderate now due to interactions with liberal seculars.

Foreign Affairs, Feb. 3, 2011
 CARRIE ROSEFSKY WICKHAM is Associate Professor of Political Science at Emory University “The Muslim Brotherhood After Mubarak” CARRIE ROSEFSKY http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67348/carrie-rosefsky-wickham/the-muslim-brotherhood-after-mubarak

Although the Brotherhood …….in the past

US dominance end inevitable- GDP decline

Haass 5-6-2008 President of the Council on Foreign Relations

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20080501faessay87304-p40/richard-n-haass/the-age-of-nonpolarity.html

In this world, the United States …….of the United States.

Collapse of hegemony is imminent and inevitable.

Khanna 8 (Parag, America Strategy Program sr. fellow, 1/27, p. 1, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/magazine/27world-t.html?_r=1&oref=slogin)

It is 2016, and the …….. do to resist its growth.

No impact to Heg Decline – Offshore balancing solves

CHRISTOPHER LAYNE. America’s Middle East grand strategy after Iraq: the moment for offshore balancing has arrived, Review of International Studies. 2009 http://journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FRIS%2FRIS35_01%2FS0260210509008304a.pdf&code=8f03534ab51907f83e3ad43a422129d3

Offshore balancing is …….Wilsonianism too often fails

Offshore balancing prevents counterbalancing which empirically happens every time- this time will be no different a failure to recognize this will cause never ending preventative wars

CHRISTOPHER LAYNE. America’s Middle East grand strategy after Iraq: the moment for offshore balancing has arrived, Review of International Studies. 2009 http://journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FRIS%2FRIS35_01%2FS0260210509008304a.pdf&code=8f03534ab51907f83e3ad43a422129d3

Although there are some ……. the next decade or two

Offshore Balancing empirically leads to stability in the Middle East, if war breaks out it deescalates quickly—prefer our evidence its comparative

John J. Mearsheimer. Pull Those Boots Off The Ground, Newsweek. December 31, 2008. http://www.newsweek.com/id/177380

So what would it look like? ……… Hussein's military machine.

Hegemony increases the risk of nuclear terrorism which will lead to extinction.

Dietrich Fischer, Academic Director of The European University Center for Peace Studies, July 10, 2005 (“The Real Threat is Nuclear Terrorism”, http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2005/07/10_fischer_real-threat-nuclear-terrorism.htm)

As long as the big …….adapt to new conditions.

US hegemony destroys the economy

Eland 02 (Ivan, Director of defense policy studies Cato Institute, Policy Analysis No. 459- The Empire Strikes Out: The New Imperialism and Its Fatal Flaws, November 26, http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa459.pdf)

Most of all, the strategy of ……..against American military might.

Economic Collapse causes extinction

Lt Col. Beardon, PhD, 2000 http://www.cheniere.org/correspondence/042500%20-%20modified.htm Lt. Col Thomas E. Bearden (retd.) PhD, MS (nuclear engineering), BS (mathematics - minor electronic engineering) Co-inventor - the 2002 Motionless Electromagnetic Generator - a replicated overunity EM generator Listed in Marquis' Who'sWho in America, 2004  The Tom Bearden Website        From: Tom Bearden To:  (Correspondent) Subj: Zero-Point Energy Date: Original Tue, 25 Apr 2000 12:36:29 -0500  Modified and somewhat updated Dec. 29, 2000.

Just prior to the ……. modified version of it, resulting.

The affirmatives support for democratic transition is also support for expansion of global capitalism.  United States model of democracy relies on creating private ownership and corporate power.  This democracy can only sustain itself it creates or maintains economic inequality and social exclusion 

Markakis in 2010
 Dionysius, “US Democracy Promotion in the Middle East” SGIR 7th Pan European Conference on International Relations

Stockholm, Sweden 2010 Panel 13-4: Democracy Promotion vs. Empowerment. http://stockholm.sgir.eu/uploads/Markakis,%20D.,%20SGIR%20Paper.pdf

The institutional …….existence predicated on it.

Capitalism  causes extinction - McGarr, 2000  

(Paul, socialist historian, political activist, and author, “Why Green is Red: Marxism and the Threat to the Environment,” International Socialism Journal, Autumn 2000, http://pubs.socialistreviewindex.org.uk/isj88/mcgarr.htm)

Unlike previous societies ……. in ways particular to capitalism too. 

Our alternative-vote neg—reject all instances

James Herod author of several books on capitalism and social activist since 1968 Getting Free 2004 http://site.www.umb.edu/faculty/salzman_g/Strate/GetFre/06.htm

It is time to try to describe……..self-determine the shape of their social world. 

Iran’s regional influence is rising- using the Arab Spring as a launching point for power

Caroline Glick, senior fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs at the Center for Security Policy and the deputy managing editor of The Jerusalem Post, I ran wins no matter how the ‘Arab Spring’ turns out
 5 March, 2011,  http://bigpeace.com/cglick/2011/03/05/iran-wins-no-matter-how-the-arab-spring-turns-out/

True, Iran’s veiled ……. to appease Iran’s allies.

US will use democracy assistance in the Middle East to contain Iran

Ambassador MK Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service Iran Times International (Washington, DC)  May 6, 2011 “Egypt shakes up Middle Eastern order” lexis

The thesis was ……..Middle East peace process.

Iran containment strategies ensure Iran prolif

Kaveh L Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of After Khomeini: New Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy August 3 2007 Asia Times “Iran feels the chill in US cold war tactics” http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IH03Ak03.html

Assigning Iran the ……. destabilize Iran.

Most likely scenario for global nuclear war

Kam 2007 (Ephraim Kam, A Nuclear Iran, Deputy Head, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, http://www.tau.ac.il/jcss/memoranda/memo88.pdf)

The serious consequences ……. the risk do not yet exist.

A. Interpretation – Substantially increase Democracy Assistance means increasing both the amount allocated for democracy assistance and the actual amount distributed.

Increase means to make greater in size

Merriam-Webster 2005(http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/increase, dictionary, November 13 2005, DA 6/21/11, OST)

“to become progressively greater (as in size, amount, number, or intensity)”

Democracy Assistance is both the amount allocated through appropriations and the actual amount distributed

Government Accountability Office ‘09

[September, ―DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE U.S. Agencies Take Steps to Coordinate International Programs but Lack Information on Some U.S.-funded Activities,‖ http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB950.pdf]

USAID, State DRL, and NED fund democracy assistance programs in countries throughout the world. USAID‘s and State DRL‘s foreign assistance programs are funded under the Foreign Operations appropriation and tracked by State as part of GJD funding, while NED‘s core budget is funded under the State Operations appropriation and is not tracked as part of GJD foreign assistance funding.

B.  The affirmative does not increase the amount that is allocated AND the amount that is distributed. .  To be topical you must increase both

C.  Reason to Prefer   

1) Requiring both allocation and distribution is the only way to ensure uniqueness for budget and perception based disadvantages

2) Increasing allocation and not disbtribution allows for “say no” arguments and then claim advantages off of the mere allocation but not anything at all happening within topic countries.

3) Prevents Bidirectionality by claiming they increase the amount that is allocated but that is rejected and makes the US look weak with a Heg bad or a destroy democratic credibility advantages.

4) Ensures Predictable ground for both budget disads and arguments that the distribution of the assistance is bad. 

D. Voting Issue for fairness, education and ground

Text:  The United States federal Government should increase the distribution of democracy assistance by…(Insert plan mandates) but not increase the amount of resources allocated to the appropriate agencies in order to fulfill the mandates of the plan.

Observation I:  The counterplan competes – Topicality proves the affirmative must increase allocation and distribution.  The increase in allocation links to our tradeoff disad.  The counterplan is a PIC out of the increase of allocation and by providingthe same distribution solves the counterplan solves the aff without linking to the Net-benefit

Observation II:  The Net-benefit

Increase in Allocation of Resources empirically trades off with assistance to Africa

Iran Daily, May 5 2011
 “Arab Spring Can Hurt Africa” http://www.iran-daily.com/1390/3/9/MainPaper/3969/Page/5/MainPaper_3969_5.pdf

Non-governmental …… big mistake,” he added

This assistance is key to combating aids and malaria in sub-Saharan Africa

Arieff in 2011
Alexis Arieff, (Coordinator Analyst in African Affairs) U.S. Foreign Assistance to Sub-Saharan:  Africa: The FY2012 Request http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41840.pdf

Significant aid ….. initiated during the Bush Administration. (See “Africa and the President’s Global Foreign Assistance Initiatives.”)

Next, 12, 000 African children will die a day. The U.S. has moral obligation “like no other” to aid African child survival.  This outweighs the unlikely, improbable IAC impacts that will be solved by the counterplan

Carolyn Bartholomew in 2006, executive director of the Basic Education Coalitio, and David Oot, chairman of the U.S. Coalition for Child Survival (www.child-survival.org) and director of health for Save the Children, 6/16/06, “Special to the Washington Times,” p. ln

Think about 1960, and …… This is a moral imperative like no other.

Their alternative requires a shift in the way states think and view the world

Mearsheimer ‘95

John J., professor of political science at the University of Chicago.  “The False Promise of International Institutions.”  International Security, Vol. 19, No. 3., Winter 94/95.

For critical theorists, …… to the broader international community.

Realism best explains the international system – states live in an anarchic world, and there is little that can be done to change that—all states operate this way. Proves they don’t solve any of their Aff. The Arab Spring will still unfold politically the same way post Aff as in the SQ

Mearsheimer ‘95

John J., professor of political science at the University of Chicago.  “The False Promise of International Institutions.”  International Security, Vol. 19, No. 3., Winter 94/95.

Realism, paints a ….. to break out in this world.

Academia won’t accomplish a change to how IR operates – Means no solvency for the Aff

John Mearsheimer, professor of Political Science at U of Chicago. "Realism, the Real World, and the Academy", Realism and Institutionalism in International Studies. 2002 http://mearsheimer.uchicago.edu/pdfs/A0029.pdf

Realism, with its emphasis ……, especially in the United States.

Abandoning realism risks a transition to fascism - either they don’t shift away from realism which means that they don’t solve any of their aff or they do which means they lead to fascism

Mearsheimer ‘95

John J., professor of political science at the University of Chicago.  “The False Promise of International Institutions.”  International Security, Vol. 19, No. 3., Winter 94/95.

Nevertheless, critical theorists …….the new hegemonic discourse.

The impact is ontological violence – Turns the Aff

Francis Fukuyama, Professor of International Political Economy at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, John Hopkins University. The End of History and the Last Man. -1992 p. 2

The totalitarian state, by contrast, …… approved by the state.”3

A departure from realism leads to great power war.

John Mearsheimer, Professor at University of Chicago, 2001

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, Page 32

The possible consequences of …… during the Cold War.

Realism ensures the quest for hegemony

John J. Mearsheimer, Ph.D University of Chicago. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, 2001 p. 1-2

Alas, the claim that security competition ……perpetual great-power competition.

Heg stops global nuclear war

Zalmay Khalilzad, RAND policy analyst, Spring 1995, The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 2, “Losing the Moment?”

Under the third option, …….. a multipolar balance of power system.

REALISM ENCOURAGES CONSERVATIVE ACTION–THIS PREVENTS IMPERIAL VIOLENCE AND INTEGRATES ETHICAL CONCERNS – realism Solves all of the Aff

RYNNING 2005 (Sten, Associate Professor of International Politics at the University of Southern Denmark, “Return of the Jedi: Realism and the Study of the European Union,” USD Political Science Publications 9/2005, June 23, )

Contemporary Classical Realists ……. build a “dynamic ideology.”

Egypt Aff

Observation I – Your disads are non-unique but our Aff is inherent

The SCAF is executing smear campaigns against political parties and CSOs as a prelude to an attempt to rig the election – monitoring is key to check.

Hassan and Shenker in 11
 Amro and Jack; journalist who writes regularly for The Guardian from Egypt. His work has covered India and Nepal, Central Asia, the Balkans, the US and Gaza, and has been published in a wide range of magazines and newspapers across the globe - including The Times, The Independent, The New Statesman and Monocle; Egyptian human rights groups accuse junta of smear campaign; http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/24/egypt-human-rights-military

A list of 39 …..

…… will be crucial."

Without successful monitoring SCAF could rig the election to allow the Muslim Brotherhood to hold a majority

Halawa in 11 (Omar, Contributer Almasry Alyoum, “As Egypt rejects international election monitors, rights advocates fear fraud” http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/479258)

A spokesperson …..

…… the monitoring process.

The US is already dumping aid in Egypt – it’s perceived and we’ve been criticized for it. US commitment to this track is key, it just needs to be funneled through the NDI

O’Keefe in 11
 Quinn; Senior Associate, Human Rights Defenders; U.S. Should Be Proud of Doing the Right Thing to Support Independent Civil Society in Egypt; Human Rights First; http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/2011/08/16/u-s-should-be-proud-of-doing-the-right-thing-to-support-independent-civil-society-in-egypt/

The U.S. government ……

…… intentions of backing down.

Thus the plan:

The United States Federal Government should fully fund the National Democratic Institute for its programs on technical assistance in political organization and election monitoring in Egypt.

Observation II – Solvency

The US is uniquely suited to provide training, experience, and funds to organizations like the NDI to work in elections monitoring, civil society, and political party training – action now during Egyptian transition is key – no additional funding required.

Masloski in 11, Andrew (Director of Educational Outreach at America Abroad Media). “The Price of Democracy in Egypt.” Foreign Policy. 2/9 http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/09/the_price_of_democracy_in_egypt

While Congress has …..

…… that the U.S. has to offer.

US success in Egypt is key to solve anti-Americanism in the region and re-establish regional credibility.

Hamid in 11
 Shadi; Director of Research @ Brookings Doha Center; The Struggle for Middle East Democracy; Cairo Review of Global Affairs; http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx

The revolutions are ….

….. This has not happened.

*Perception is key in the coming months- the US must show support for democratic regimes to boost its image in the region and ensure that the Egypt-Israel peace treaty stays in place

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) - 09/08/11,  Whither the Arab Spring, The Hill, http://thehill.com/opinion/op-ed/180407-whither-the-arab-spring

The coming months …..

…… the coming months

Even If Brotherhood influence is inevitable – the plan creates a counterweight to prevent a political monopoly

Trager, September/October 11
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1704

Washington should …..

…… fought so valiantly.

US direct grants to independent NGOs solve Egyptian confidence in the transition

Schenker 7/25/11
http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459
  David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, from where this monograph, of which this is part 6, is adapted. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; in that capacity he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. 

As Egypt approaches …..

…… to a democratic system.

Advantage 1- Egyptian Democracy --  First, Transition now is key – Egypt is on the brink of backsliding into authoritarianism

Keeler 11 (Chris, journalist specializing in Middle Eastern politics, July 27, “Imposing Security Services By Any Other Name,” http://notesfromamedinah.com/2011/07/27/imposing-security-services-by-any-other-name/) JJN

Almost six months …..

…… revolutionary step for the country.

Second, NGOs empirically are the best for transition to democracy

Cohen and Kupcu 9 (Michael A. and Maria F. “Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Promotion: A Comprehensive Plan for Reform,” April, New America Foundation, http://www.newamerica.net/files/nafmigration/Revitalizing_US_Democracy_Promotion.pdf)

Beyond the five principles …..

…… of a democratizing society.

Scenario 1- Terrorism --Egyptian democratic success is key to stopping Al Qaeda

Miami Herald 11 (Feb 11, http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/02/11/2062742/egypts-revolution-will-remake.html) MV

WASHINGTON — Egypt's revolution, a secular popular revolt ……

…… and for the rest of the world."

Terrorism causes extinction – draws in Russia and China

Ayson 10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

A terrorist nuclear attack, ……

…… chances of nuclear restraint.

Scenario 2- Middle Eastern Peace -- Democracy key to peace in the Middle East

Kirkup 11 (James Kirkup, Democracy is route to peace in Middle East, says David Cameron, The Telegraph, Feb 21, 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/8339054/Democracy-is-route-to-peace-in-Middle-East-says-David-Cameron.html)

Freedom and …..

…… and healthy political parties.

The Middle East is on the brink of a nuclear war

Blake 11 (Heidi Blake, WikiLeaks: tension in the Middle East and Asia has 'direct potential' to lead to nuclear war, The Telegraph, Feb 2, 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8298427/WikiLeaks-tension-in-the-Middle-East-and-Asia-has-direct-potential-to-lead-to-nuclear-war.html)

Tension in the Middle ….

…… absorbed through the skin.

Middle East war goes Global

London 10 (Herbert I. London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, Hudson New York, 6/28/10, http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east)

The coming storm in the …..

……, falls, the tent collapses.

Scenario 3- Failure to democratize Egypt crushes US hegemony in the Middle East

HRF 10 (Human Rights First, November 24, 2010 “Background Report on Egyptian Civil Society Election Monitoring in Upcoming Elections” http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/2010/11/24/background-report-on-egyptian-civil-society-election-monitoring-in-upcoming-elections/ MM)

The U.S. government’s …..

……. and democracy everywhere.

Heg stops global nuclear war

Zalmay Khalilzad, RAND policy analyst, Spring 1995, The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 2, “Losing the Moment?”

Under the third option….

...... multipolar balance of power system.

Advantage 2- Muslim Brotherhood -- Muslim Brotherhood will dominate Egyptian elections now—Superior organization

Al-Anani 11 (Khalil Al-Anani, May 29, 2010, Scholar at Middle East Institute at Durham University and expert on Islamist Politics, “A Brotherhood Government?,” http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/456025)

The only way to avoid ……

\....... government will be an Islamic one.

US assistance is able to make other political parties viable in the election

Hanley March 13, 2011 Charles J. Hanley is a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist “US training quietly nurtured young Arab democrats” http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2011/Mar/13/us_training_quietly_nurtured_young_arab_democrats.html MM

National Endowment …..

……. otherwise deepen civic involvement.

Muslim Brotherhood will start a war with Israel

Spencer 11 (Robert Spencer, director of Jihad Watch, May 31, 2011, “Egypt Rushes Towards Sharia and War,” http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=43807)

How hopelessly at …..

……. is “never going to be a friend of Israel.”

Escalatory nuclear war

Eldar 3 (Dan Eldar, adjunct research fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv University, former senior analyst at the Israeli prime minister's office, “Egypt and Israel: A Reversible Peace,” The Middle East Quarterly, Fall 2003, pp. 57-65)

In addition, there is …..

\....... dire consequences for the entire region.

Muslim Brotherhood coming to power in Egypt will lead to a break in the Israeli/Egyptian Peace Treaty and Egyptian Nuclear Proliferation

Russel in 2010
 Richard, (Dr. Richard L. Russell is Professor of National Security Affairs in the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic
 Studies at the National Defense University and Adjunct Professor of Security Studies in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University.)  JFQ / issue 58, 3d quarter 2010 Off and Running The Middle East Nuclear Arms Race http://www.ndu.edu/press/lib/images/jfq-58/JFQ58_94-99_Russell.pdf

Egypt might make …..

…….. challenge the survival of Egypt’s regime

Unchecked, proliferation causes nuclear war and extinction.

Victor A. Utgoff 2002, Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analysis, Survival, “Proliferation, Missile Defence and American Ambitions” 2002 p. 87-90

In sum, widespread proliferation …..

……. even whole nations.

Muslim Brotherhood will also shut down the Suez Canal causing massive oil shocks

Hilliker 11 (Joel Hilliker, February 2, 2011, “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Close the Suez Canal?,” The Trumpet, http://www.thetrumpet.com/?q=7928.6537.0.0)

Almost immediately ……

…… by combining forces to invade.

Suez closure causes US intervention and escalatory nuclear war

Nazemroaya 11 (Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), February, 13, 2011, “THE DIVISION OF EGYPT: THREATS OF US, ISRAELI, AND NATO MILITARY INTERVENTION?” http://www.setyoufreenews.com/2011/02/division-of-egypt-threats-of-us-israeli.html)

Recall the 1956 ……

……. overseas and domestic militarization.

Even brief closure of the Suez Canal collapses the world economy

Brockmeyer 11 (Peter Brockmeyer, studied in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and the Economics Department at the London School of Economics, February 1, 2011, PolicyMic, “The Suez Canal: What Happens If Egypt Shuts It Down?,” http://www.policymic.com/beta/business-economy/suez-canal-what-happens-if-egypt-shuts-it-down)

In the midst of the unrest, …..

…… to travel the longer route will impair supplies, too.

Oil shocks empirically collapse growth—Kill consumption and spike inflation

Roubini & Setser 4 (Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Business, Brad Setser, Research Associate, Global Economic Governance Programme, University College, Oxford, August 2004, online)

Oil prices shocks have a …..

……. Iraq is a good example.

Extinction

Bearden 2000 (Lt. Col Thomas E. Bearden, PhD, MS, BSCo-inventor - the 2002 Motionless Electromagnetic Generator - a replicated overunity EM generator Listed in Marquis' Who'sWho in America, 2004)

Just prior to the terrible ……

…….modified version of it, resulting.

Aff: Johnson County VS

Round # 5  Tournament: Shirley

vs: New York University AG

Judge: Halli Tripe

Plan Text: USFG should increase democracy assistance to Brahrain

1ac Advantages

Off-shore balancing

Ongoing violence

2ac Offense

Suggar addon

1ar Strategy

Multi-actor fiat bad

Roleplaying good

Cp can’t solve

2ar Strategy

CP DA

Multi-actor fiat bad

Aff: Johnson County SV

Round # 4 Tournament: Shirley

vs: Cal BP

Judge: Travis Cram

Plan Text: Provide expertise + Materials to foster democracy groups in Bahrain

1ac Advantages:

Offshore balancing

Ongoing violence

2ac Offense

A2 Saudi DA – Offshore balancing prevents escalation

PTX (payroll) – Econ downturn causes war

1ar Strategy

2ar Strategy

Econ downturn solves war

Regular 1AC

Plan- United States federal government should provide expertise and materials to foster democratic groups, initiatives and institutions that are already working towards a more democratic society in Bahrain.

Advantage 1- Offshore Balancing

First, the removal of the fifth fleet from Bahrain is inevitable regardless of the result of the protests

Bahraini government support for the US is decreasing they want the fifth fleet to leave

Justin Gengler is a Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at the University in Michigan and former Fulbright Fellow to Bahrain. The other side of radicalization in Bahrain, The Middle East Channel. July 15, 2011 http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/15/the_other_side_of_radicalization_in_bahrain

In a July 6 interview ….

…. days of the crisis.

And, the Hardliners are in charge in Bahrain the response to protests prove

Toby C. Jones - Toby C. Jones is assistant professor of history at Rutgers University.Time to Disband the Bahrain-Based U.S. Fifth Fleet, The Atlantic. June 10, 2011. http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-based-us-fifth-fleet/240243/?single_page=true

Whatever opening ….

….. defeat the forces of democracy.

And even if the protestors win out—the US has permanently ruined relations with the protestors

Elliott Abrams is a senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Formerly deputy national security adviser on Middle East affairs in the George W. Bush administration, Abrams was also an assistant secretary of state for UN affairs, human rights, and Latin America in the Reagan administration. U.S. Hypocrisy on Bahrain, The Atlantic. September 19, 2011 http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/09/us-hypocrisy-on-bahrain/245283/

In Bahrain, American ….

….. direct their own destinies.

This will cause the US to try to relocate its naval base in the region

The Trench, is a manifestation of Octopus Mountain, an organization designed to counter the suppression of foreign policy debate in the American media. Political science has decayed and must be revived. The Trench analyzes asymmetric and fourth generation warfare (4GW), counterinsurgency (COIN), propaganda, and human nature to predict future events. The Trench offers a refuge for realists, and a foreign policy arena for those craving a deeper discourse on geopolitics. Winds of Change Rocking Bahrain’s Fifth Fleet, The Trench. July 22, 2011 http://hadalzone.blogspot.com/2011/07/winds-of-change-rocking-bahrains-fifth.html

Two sites under ….

…… logistically and geopolitically.

The aff ensures that the US can’t find a home for its naval forces

Shmuel Bar is director of studies at the Institute for Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel. America’s Fading Middle East Influence, Hoover Institution. April 1, 2011 http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/73161

The Arab revolts ….

….. been dramatically degraded.

This causes the US to shift to offshore balancing

Michael Koplovsky, FS-01, Foreign Service. PRECIPITATING THE INEVITABLE: THE SURPRINGLY BENIGN

IMPACT OF LOSING BASING RIGHTS IN BAHRAIN, Naval War College. 23 October 2006 http://dodreports.com/pdf/ada463412.pdf

Large, permanent, forward U.S. ….

……and operational presence.26

The shift to offshore balancing is critical to prevent terrorist attacks

Michael Koplovsky, FS-01, Foreign Service. PRECIPITATING THE INEVITABLE: THE SURPRINGLY BENIGN

IMPACT OF LOSING BASING RIGHTS IN BAHRAIN, Naval War College. 23 October 2006 http://dodreports.com/pdf/ada463412.pdf

Forward operating bases ….

…… U.S. facilities in Bahrain.

Terrorism causes extinction even if it is unsuccessful

Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, political analyst, August 26 – September 1, 2004, Al-Ahram Weekly On-Line, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm

We have reached …

…..planet, we will all be losers.

But don’t worry, regional instability wouldn’t occur offshore balancing would prevent Middle East Conflict

CHRISTOPHER LAYNE. America’s Middle East grand strategy after Iraq: the moment for offshore balancing has arrived, Review of International Studies. 2009 http://journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FRIS%2FRIS35_01%2FS0260210509008304a.pdf&code=8f03534ab51907f83e3ad43a422129d3

Advocates of both primacy, ….

….. sea-based cruise missiles.18

Offshore balancing would prevent Iranian Prolif

John J. Mearsheimer. Pull Those Boots Off The Ground, Newsweek. December 31, 2008. http://www.newsweek.com/id/177380

Third, offshore balancing ….

…… divide-and-conquer.

Most likely scenario for global nuclear war

Kam 2007 (Ephraim Kam, A Nuclear Iran, Deputy Head, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, http://www.tau.ac.il/jcss/memoranda/memo88.pdf)

The serious consequences …

…. do not yet exist.

Advantage 2- Is the ongoing violence

United States staying silent and not supporting the protestors in Bahrain is what will cause violence against peoples and allows atrocities

Human Rights First, United States Government Urged to Break the Silence on Bahrain Abuses. September 23, 2011 http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/2011/09/23/united-states-government-urged-to-break-the-silence-on-bahrain-abuses/

Washington, DC –The United States ….

…. side of history in Bahrain.

The United States is morally obligated to support the protestors

Bahrain Freedom Movement, Bahrain: Escalation Of Revolution

As People Insist On Regime Change. September 13, 2011 http://www.countercurrents.org/bfm130911.htm

The international pressure …

…..countries, especially US.

Embracement of civil and political rights is an important tool to prevent environmental destruction and nuclear war

Louis Sohn, emeritus professor of int’l law at Harvard, professor of international law at the University of Georgia, Fall 1982, American University Law Review, 32 Am. U.L. Rev. 1, p. 62-4

Whatever the merits …

….. to begin a third.