Case - Terrorism
1. Yemen as a failed state poses little threat to US- AQAP in Yemen has 2 separate factions and the western oriented one is unlikely to gain much from anything currently occurring in the region.
James Spencer June 2011(Retired Infantryman and strategic analyst on political, security and trade issues in the middle east and northern Africa specializing in Yemen)“A False Dawn for Yemen's Militants” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67883/james-spencer/a-false-dawn-for-yemens-militants?page=show#
But this catalogue of putative successes
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only fuels support for violence in Yemen.
2. WMD use by Al Quaeda unlikely in near future- weaponization and scientific knowledge present barrier to successful use. They have no i/l to terrorists getting nuclear weapons, default to us.
Peter Bergen ( fellow at the New America Foundation and New York University’s Center on Law and Security) “Reevaluating Al-Qa`ida’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Capabilities” 2010 http://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/CTCSentinel-Vol3Iss92.pdf
Nevertheless, governments must be cognizant
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principal effect will be panic and a limited number of casualties.
Case – Solvency
1. Massive corruption guts solvency-Saleh acts to maintain his own power at all costs
BPC 2010 ( The Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) is a non-profit organization that was established in 2007 by former Senate Majority Leaders Howard Baker, Tom Daschle, Bob Dole and George Mitchell) “FRAGILITY AND EXTREMISM IN YEMEN” http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Yemen%20Fragility%20and%20Extremism.pdf
Given Yemen’s tribal society and scarce
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“is the glue that keeps things in place
Ed Burke ( Middle East researcher at FRIDE, the Foundation for International Relations and External Dialogue, in Madrid) “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Yemen” May 2010
There are significant local factors
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in democracy assistance if the government has no political will to continue reforms.
3. US democracy assistance fails- regimes maintain an “endless transition”
Shadi Hamid( Director of Research, Brookings Doha CenterPrior to joining Brookings, he was Director of Research at the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED) and a Hewlett Fellow at Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law) APRIL 26, 2011 “The Struggle for Middle East Democracy” http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx
In the early 1990s, the United States began
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and never came, Arabs were bound to grow impatient.
Case - Stability
1. Tribal law and reliance on military wages serves as a backstop preventing complete collapse of Yemen into chaos.
Dr. Steve C. Caton August 11, 2010 (Professor of Contemporary Arab Studies in the Department of Anthropology at Harvard University) “Yemen: not on the verge of collapse” http://www.pomeps.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMEPS_BriefBooklet3_Yemen_WEB-Rev.pdf
The power of the tribes in Yemen
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arrive at more nuanced and more accurate understandings of them.
Case – Inherency
US already developing governance in Yemen and taking measures to improve relations
Ed Burke ( Middle East researcher at FRIDE, the Foundation for International Relations and External Dialogue, in Madrid) “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Yemen” May 2010
However, given the threat of a resurgent al-Qaeda
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also continue to provide core support to NDI activities in Yemen.
Case – Prolif
Roberts ’96 (Brad, Ed. Washington Quarterly and Research Fellow – CSIS, “Weapons Proliferation and World Order: After the Cold War”, p. 191-192)
This way of thinking about the
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or the racism of white societies.
Alt cause - Israel’s nuclear weapons guarantee proliferation will continue in the middle east
The guardian 2010 (Israel's nuclear weapons: Time to come clean
Israel must abandon its obfuscations on nuclear weapons to move towards a true nuclear settlement in the Middle East Tuesday 25 May 2010 http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/25/israel-nuclear-weapons-editorial)
Both America and Israel believe that Israel
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security is a collective as well as an individual matter.
Alt Cause -Can’t stop prolif – nuclear power key
Ferguson 2007 (Charles, Scientific Consultant, Fellow for Science and Technology, Council on Foreign Relations, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, “Proliferation Risks of Nuclear Power Programs,” http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_94.html) PM
The biggest barrier to preventing
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vigilant about controlling the risks of proliferation.