Inherency
Assad will not start a regime-led transition to democracy and the regime won’t disintegrate on its own—action now is key
Michael S. Doran and Salman Shaikh 2011 June 22 Michael S. Doran is senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution. Salman Shaikh is director of the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy. Getting Serious in Syria http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1001
The Syrian status quo, whatever is left
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cling to power to the bitter end.
Currently the Obama administration refuses to support Syrian opposition groups based on misconceptions that Assad is reforming
Puder, Joesph, 8/17/11, Front Page Magazine writer, “Snubbing the Real Syrian Democratic Movement”
Yahoo News reported on August 2, 2011
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it with $111 million for fiscal 2012.
Regime collapse will be slow and violent; fast U.S. action to get Assad to step down now is key.
Michael S. Doran and Salman Shaikh 2011 June 22 Michael S. Doran is senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution. Salman Shaikh is director of the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy. Getting Serious in Syria http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1001
Consequently, we should expect the regime to
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Assad to go, and to go soon.
Plantext
The United States federal government should provide all necessary democracy assistance that is requested by the Syrian National Council of opposition groups.
Heg
US failure to take the lead now is causing bureaucratic disconnect and international lack of clarity
Rogin, Josh, 8/16/11, Foreign Policy Magazine, “Why has Obama not called for Hassad to go yet?”
Turkey's last ditch attempt at dialogue with the
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bigger mistake than not saying Assad must go."
Failure to support regime change in Syria is causing international backlash, killing US Soft Power – action now is key
Schake, Kori, 8/19/11, “The kind of world Secretary Clinton wants to see”, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/19/the_kind_of_world_secretary_clinton_wants_to_see
America's Secretary of State gave a stunning interview
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power and the Obama administration's approach are working?
And other international agents agree the US is the ONLY actor who can put pressure on the regime
Kessler 8/18/11, Oren, Jpost journalist, “Turkey: Syrian situation may become Libya-style civil war”, http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=234226
Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan compared the
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not Asia, not the UN Security Council.
Plan is key to US credibility
Ali Younes 8-1-11 writer and political analyst based in Washington DC. http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2011/08/01/160292.html
Throughout the crises in Syria the US administration
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standing up to the bloody dictator of Damascus.
This is key to maintaining soft power – the US has to create action against Syria in order to foster cooperation against bad government in the ME – this is turn restores credibility
Schake, Kori, 8/19/11, “The kind of world Secretary Clinton wants to see”, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/19/the_kind_of_world_secretary_clinton_wants_to_see
America's Secretary of State gave a stunning interview
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power and the Obama administration's approach are working?
Mid East cred is the litmus test for the future of US leadership.
Phillips, '10 (Writer and analyst of Middle Eastern Affairs, 5-31, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/31/us-hegemony-middle-east-ending)
While the Bush era saw the US hegemonic
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hegemony in the Middle East could be ending.
American power stops conflict in every region, keeps trade moving, stops terrorists, and prolif – hegemony is inevitable the question is whether or not other nations let America use it effectively
Kagan 11 contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, Robert, “The Price of Power”, 1-24, Vol. 16, No. 18, http://www.weeklystandard.com/print/articles/price-power_533696.html,
Today the international situation is also one of
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system that American power has built and defended.
Syrian Stability
Opposition groups fragmented now – creating communication through different types of opposition groups is key to stop the refugee crisis and sectarian violence
Allen 9/2/11, Michael, Editor of Democracy Digest, “Can Syria’s Opposition Unite?”, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/09/can-syrias-opposition-unite/
Many Syrian-based activists are wary of
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Syria and Iraq, it is already happening.”
Assad has been weakened internationally – he’ll lashout in order to keep power
Robbins, James, 8/18/11, BBC News Diplomatic correspondent, “Syria unrest: Why the world has waited so long”, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14579756
The US and its allies still rule out
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is the Assad family which represents present danger.
Assad regime is pushing sectarian conflicts as a way of control – this spillovers throughout the Middle East and causes Syrian and regional instabiliy
Nasr, 8/27/11, Vali, NY Times journalist, “If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly”, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1
Syria today stands at the edge of such
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pressure the Assad government not to inflame sectarian tensions
U.S. support for democratization in Syria is necessary to prevent suppression of the uprising or all out civil war
John Hannah 5-11-11 Obama and Syria: Courting Disaster http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/05/11/obama_and_syria_courting_disaster
Instead, the administration needs quickly to move
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very raison d'etre is ensuring the regime's survival.
Syrian instability generates Israel-Syria war that the whole region gets drawn into, Iran proxy war the use of CBW weapons, and Israeli strikes
Ceren, Omri, 8/1/11, Commentary Magazine, “Just How Bad Could a Syrian
Collapse Get?
But the continued stability of the Syrian regime
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productive that strategy may turn out to be.
Israel strikes causes economic collapse, great power draw in, and extinction
Reuveny ‘10 (Rafael Reuveny is a professor in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University. “Israel and Iran: a unilateral strike could trigger World War III” The Nation McClatchy-Tribune Information Services August 6, 2010)
A unilateral Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities
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Israeli strike could ultimately spark World War III.
Solvency
And the U.S. is uniquely key – Obama’s background makes him in a position of power to promote democracy to the Arab Spring that other agents can’t access – letting them decide what democracy assistance they want is the only thing that solves
Gerecht 9/1/11, a former CIA officer, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the author of “The Wave: Man, God, and the Ballot Box in the Middle East.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-american liberator/2011/09/01/gIQA3e5HvJ_story.html
Libya was not a robust showing of liberal
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It may do the same for Barack Obama.
National council unification spurs the business communities to regime change – they are specifically key to bringing down the regime due to geographical location, high income, and larger number against pro Assad business supporters
Slim, 8/5/11, Randa, “Where’s Syria’s business community”, Foreign Policy Magazine, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/05/wheres_syrias_business_community
The decision by the U.S.
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of economic system they want to see established.
The international community is key to help sustain basic governance and economic recovery – now’s key based on military support – solves religious violence
Democracy Digest, 8/30/11, “Libya’s Lessons for Syrian Opposition?”, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/08/libyan-lessons-for-syria%E2%80%99s-opposition/
With Syrian army defections reportedly on the rise
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basic governance, and reviving the economy.” .
And international community should set up a political alternative that protects minorities – key to Assad collapse
Al Toraifi 8/12/11, Adel, Al Arabiya, “Adel Al Toraifi: Syria on the road of chaos”, http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2011/08/12/161931.html
If the international community is concerned about Syria
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[Baathist] party and sectarian [elements].
Unifying and creating good governance and stability key – any other action will fail
Harling, 8/30/11, Peter, Foreign Policy Magazine, “How not to prolong the Syrian agony”, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/30/how_not_to_prolong_the_syrian_agony
The second mistake to be avoided is for
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the protest movement's coattails but in complementing it.
Unified approach solves the transition- presents an alternative to the regime through lack of discrimination based on sectarian violence
Hassan, 8/28/11, Hassan, The National, “Syria's opposition has failed to offer a viable alternative”, http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/syrias-opposition-has-failed-to-offer-a-viable-alternative?pageCount=2
The regime has also been careful not to
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Mr Al Assad will simply prolong his regime.
And successful coalition garners international support – gets regional leaders on board to embrace new government
Souaiaia 8/29/11, Ahmed, teaches a variety of courses in College of Law, International Programs, and Religious Studies at the University of Iowa, “Syria’s opposition groups establish a national transition council”, http://www.examiner.com/international-affairs-in-national/syria-s-opposition-groups-establish-a-national-transition-council
If the protesters embrace one of the new
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too, will certainly meet the same fate.
Alternative government is the biggest threat to Assad – he will fall with a unified opposition – Libya proves
National Council 8/24/11, Syria opposition must learn from Libya's council, http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/editorial/syria-opposition-must-learn-from-libyas-council
The one lesson that Syrians must learn from
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. Only then will his regime surely crumble.
And a national council will be able to provide a smooth transition – no terrorist coup or transition war – 80% of the opposition are on board
EuroNews, 8/24/11, “Syrian opposition established National Council”, http://www.euronews.net/2011/08/24/syrian-opposition-established-national-council/
Syrian opposition is very close to have its
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the end in process of establishing a leadership.”
