1AC

Plan: The United States federal government should provide judicial training for Yemeni domestic police forces under the command of General Ali Mohsin.

Inherency

The US is stepping up cooperation with Yemeni security forces, but now is a key time to determine the direction of aid

Wall Street Journal 3/6/12 (Margaret Coker, Hakim Almasmari, and Julian E. Barnes, “U.S., Yemen Restart Training,” )

U.S. and Yemeni officials have

AND

to return this month to continue those talks.

The Yemeni police force is in disarray and unable to deal with threats// – corruption is high, torture is rampant, and there are no effective training programs.

Global Security 7/28/11 (“Yemen Intelligence Agencies,” )

The law prohibits torture; however, according

AND

central locus of consequential police corruption in Yemen.

Advantage One- Terror

AQAP is increasing its foothold in Yemen and has the motives and capabilities to attack the United States.

Zimmerman 2/17/12 (Katherine, Gulf of Aden Team Lead for the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, “Recipe for Failure: American Strategy toward Yemen and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula,” American Enterprise Institute, )

The threat to Americans from al Qaeda in

AND

if they secure an expanded sanctuary in Yemen.

AQAP will attack the United States and is a comparatively more dangerous than other branches.

Boucek ’11 (Dr. Christopher, Associate, Middle East Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Written Testimony Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs Washington, D.C. July 19, ]

Since its creation in January 2009, the

AND

explosives concealed as cargo packages mailed from Yemen.

AQAP will soon have nuclear capabilities.

Fissile Materials Working Group ’11 (The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, “After bin Laden: Nuclear terrorism still a top threat,” 5/13, )

Osama bin Laden's death may represent a significant

AND

priority must be securing this potential source material.

An AQAP strike would cause extinction.

Alexander ’10 (Yonah, Director of the International Center for Terrorism Studies at the Potomac Institute for Policy Sciences, “Maghreb & Sahel Terrorism: Addressing the Rising Threat from al-Qaeda & other Terrorists in North & West/Central Africa,” January, )

Current and future perpetrators include the following:

AND

which they could forever alter our planet’s existence.

Single attack causes extinction.

Toon et al ‘07 (Owen B. Toon, chair of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU-Boulder, et al., April 19, climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf)

To an increasing extent, people are congregating

AND

well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

High risk of nuclear terrorism –most qualified experts agree.

US Russia Joint Threat Assessment May ‘11

(http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard

AND

%2027%20May%202011.pdf)

 ABOUT THE U.S.-RUSSIA

AND

-profit organization “Counter-Terrorism Center.”

The expert community distinguishes pathways terrorists might take

AND

scale the first act of nuclear terrorism occurs.

Detonation would collapse government structures and ensure irrationality –

George Michael ‘11, Associate Professor of Nuclear Counterproliferation & Deterrence Theory at the U.S. Air Force Counterproliferation Center, Spring/Summer (http://www.securityaffairs.org/issues/2011/20/michael.php)

And even if a single nuclear device were

AND

that easy to put Humpty Dumpty together again.

Independently, AQAP would strike with CBW’s.

Baldor ‘11 (Lolita, Associated Press, “U.S. Plans to Train Yemeni Counter-Terrorism Unit” Monday, February 14, )

Senior U.S. intelligence officials told

AND

, and urge others to do the same.

The success of an attack is highly probable – even a small attack will spread quickly.

Russell ’06 (Lindsey, Contributing Writer, Associated Content, “Is Bioterrorism Inevitable?” 10/27, )

Professor Robert S. Root-Bernstein in

AND

air conditioning/heating units from bioterrorist threats.

This ensures a US nuclear response.

Conley ‘03 (Lt Col Harry W. is chief of the Systems Analysis Branch, Directorate of Requirements, Headquarters Air Combat Command (ACC), Langley AFB, Virginia. Air & Space Power Journal – Spring, )

The number of American casualties suffered due to

AND

a possibility, whatever promises had been made.”

Global nuclear war.

Ayson ’10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University at Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, via InformaWorld)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non

AND

conclusions might it then draw about their culpability?

AQAP threatens regional stability – the impact is global nuclear war.

Riedel ’11 (Bruce, Senior Fellow in the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution, “Where al Qaeda is Winning,” 6/27, )

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is a

AND

grim for everyone but al Qaeda in Yemen.

Terrorism studies are epistemologically and methodologically valid---our authors are self-reflexive

Boyle and Horgan 8 – Michael J. Boyle, School of International Relations, University of St. Andrews, and John Horgan, International Center for the Study of Terrorism, Department of Psychology, Pennsylvania State University, April 2008, “A Case Against Critical Terrorism Studies,” Critical Studies On Terrorism, Vol. 1, No. 1, p. 51-64

Jackson (2007c) calls for the development

AND

produce such scathing indictments of its own work.

Advantage Two: Intervention

Proper police training represents the key ingredient for a transition to counter-insurgency.

Grono ’11 (Nick, Deputy President of Crisis Group, , 1/24)

1. Good policing is critical to counter

AND

is the time there will be real security”.

Plan would prove the success of this model of assistance – spills over

Bergenas ’11 (Johan, Research Associate at the Stimson Center, “Bridging the Security-Development Divide,” The Will and the Wallet, World Politics Review, 3/7, )

Take for instance efforts to improve legal,

AND

in the Middle East but throughout the world.

Yemen is the litmus-test of future counter-terrorism strategy – the time is right for a strategy shift

Cilluffo and Watts ‘11 [Frank J. Cilluffo is the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University and Clinton Watts is a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute. He is a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI., Homeland Security Policy Institute, “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity”, June 24, 2011, http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm]

Debates over the legality of pursuing AQAP in

AND

now to prevent an inevitable attack from AQAP.

US intervention in regional conflicts is inevitable – it’s just a question of whether or not it includes this brand of counterinsurgency.

Curry ‘08 (Tom, MSNBC national affairs writer, 7/12/08, )

Retired Army officer Andrew Krepinevich, the head

AND

.S. security or economic well being.”

We control impact uniqueness – localized conflicts will be the wars of the future, not high-intensity exchanges.

Marston ’04 (Daniel, Ph.D., Research Fellow, focusing on how armies learn and reform, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National U; former Senior Lecturer, War Studies, Royal Military Academy-Sandhurst; lecturer on COIN to military units in Australia, UK, Canada, and US, “Force Structure for High- and Low-Intensity Warfare: The Anglo-American Experience and Lessons for the Future,” ) 

While the exact scope of future war is

AND

, and the second Intifada in Israel.16

These are the most probable nuclear conflicts.

Richards '07 (Phd & J Addams & Partners, Inc, )

Beginning with Mao Tse-Tung, and

AND

the scenes of horror and brutality that ensue.

Future conflicts will be between states and non-state actors – great power wars are over.

Anne-Marie Slaughter is the Bert G Kerstetter ‘66 University Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, August, ’11 (http://www.princeton.edu/~slaughtr/Commentary/RUSI.pdf)

9/11 was the defining event of

AND

match for twenty-first-century problems.

Solvency

US judicial training of Yemeni police is the greatest step it can take to thwart terrorism //– represents a reversal of status quo counter-terrorism policy.

Knoetgen ’11 (Peter, Captain in the US Naval Reserve, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil,” Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, 5/16, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil)

Like most terror organisations, AQAP exists in

AND

experts providing cultural, regional and international expertise.

Providing counter-insurgency training to the First Armoured Division is key to strategy shift, overcoming anti-American sentiment, and maintaining Saudi relations

Hill 3/22/12 (Ginny, “Reforming Yemen’s Military,” Foreign Policy, )

But neither Hadi nor al-Ashwal has

AND

stamped Hadi's elevation from vice president to president.

Strategy shift in Yemen is needed to solve now – threat of an AQAP attack grows systemically

Zimmerman 2/17/12 (Katherine, Gulf of Aden Team Lead for the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, “Recipe for Failure: American Strategy toward Yemen and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula,” American Enterprise Institute, )

It is far from clear that American strategy

AND

there be a Yemen strategy that deserves success.

US law enforcement training is essential to information exchange- this is the only way to prevent terrorism

Millar and Rosland ‘7 [Alistair Millar is the director of the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation and Eric Rosand is a senior fellow at the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation in New York and a non-resident fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, “Building Global Alliances in the Fight against Terrorism”, November 2007, http://www.globalct.org/images/content/pdf/reports/better_world.pdf]

In the international effort to combat terrorism,

AND

could have devastating ripples into the United States. 

This is particularly true in Yemen – current US efforts will only succeed with information exchange

Barfi ’10 [Barak Barfi is an independent analyst who has worked with ABC News affiliates in the Middle East, “How attacking AQAP influenced its strategy”, 2010, http://www.nato.int/docu/review/2010/Yemen/Yemen_AQAP/EN/]

AQAP’s ability to survive the American-Yemeni

AND

competent military allies and reliable local intelligence assets.

The plan would be a shift to a more comprehensive approach – that’s critical to successful international cooperation

Boyle and Scmid ‘09 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009

One of the greatest challenges currently facing the

AND

have bedevilled counter-terrorism cooperation thus far.

This shift is critical to larger multilateral cooperation – there is a unique spillover effect

Boyle and Scmid ‘09 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009

The war on terror has failed to become

AND

more difficult than it would have otherwise been.

2AC

A2 T - Direct Assistance

1. We meet – the specific type of training we give is democratic by teaching Yemeni police about due process, proper investigative techniques, and peaceful riot control.

2. Counter-Interpretation – Democracy assistance is rule of law and three other things.

Azpuru ’11 (Dinorah, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Wichita State University, “The Promotion of Democracy: Actors and Methods,” Achieving Democracy: Democratization in Theory and Practice)

Figure 14.2 shows, by sector

AND

least amount of aid was channeled to elections.

4. We meet the counter-interpretation – police training strengthens democratic rule of law.

Grono ’11 (Nick, Deputy President of Crisis Group, , 1/24)

A well-trained police force is also

AND

and better governance are all out of reach.

5. Their interpretation is overlimiting – only allows for targeting countries that are already initiating elections or transitions which rules out half the topic.

6. Our interpretation is most predictable – preserves all cases with democratic intent while limiting out general cases of military or security aid.

7. They kill aff ground – only advantage ground allowed is democracy since that’s the only way of determining “democratic purpose.”

8. Generics check – arguments like the World Bank counterplan and cap k check any limits or ground arguments, the neg will always be prepared to debate.

9. Reasonability—

(a) Good is good enough—our interpretation provides predictable limits and fair ground, satisfying the purpose of T as a voter.

Case

Yemeni based AQAP will strike Saudi oil facilities

Murphy ’10 (AQAP’s Growing Security Threat to Saudi Arabia Jun 03, 2010 Caryle Murphy Caryle Murphy is an independent journalist based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. A former reporter for the Washington Post, she was awarded the 1990 Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting. She is the author of Passion For Islam.

AQAP is now a major security threat to

AND

they are threatening…This is their danger.”

Attack on Saudi oil causes a global oil shock

Sokolski ‘5 (Sokolski, Executive Director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, 2005 (Henry, Testimony before the House International Relations Committee, 2/16, http://www.internationalrelations.house.gov/archives/109/sok021605.pdf)

Iran also has a history of supporting terrorist

AND

to European states, Russia, and China.

Saudi oil shock causes extinction

Henderson ‘7 (Climate Change, Peak Oil And Nuclear War By Bill Henderson 24 February, 2007 Countercurrents.org

A steep spike in the price of oil

AND

serious talk of pre-emptive nuclear attack.

A2 Trade off DA

Aid and Pressure to reform military to Yemen now

Yemen News Agency 3/28 Feltman calls for restructuring military institution in Yemen

 [28/March/2012]

AND

sabanews.net/en/news264464.htm

SANA'A, March 28 (Saba) -

AND

to Yemen in 2012 to $ 55 million.

 ( ) No link – plan comes out of the already budgeted regional response fund.

McInerney, '11 (Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)

Transitions in the Middle East are a top

AND

Syria, Libya, Yemen, or elsewhere.

( ) No Link – Plan’s a trade off –

A. Millions are already appropriated for Yemen now but not spent.

Malta Independent, 9/1/11 (http://www.independent.com.mt/news.asp?newsitemid=131301)

The Pentagon had planned to spend at least

AND

and an increasingly threatening al-Qaeda affiliate.

B. FY2011 budget bill gives discretion to Obama to make cuts – they’d take existing appropriations to fund the plan.

McInerney, July '11 (Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)

To begin with, there are three major

AND

begin the FY12 appropriations process on July 27.

( ) No Indo Pak War –

A. Tensions decreasing.

Krepon, ’10 [Michael, cofounder of the Stimson center, the Diplomat scholar at the university of Virginia, Joint Forces Quarterly, Lexis]

The first such dominant trend is that Pakistan

AND

conducive to improved bilateral relationships on the subcontinent.

B. Deterrence solves war.

Waltz ‘2k (Kenneth, poli sci prof at Columbia University, research associate of the Institute of War and Peace Studies, Winter/Spring, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 1, No. 1, “Interview: Is Kenneth Waltz Still M.A.D. about Nukes?” Interviewed by Jeremy Goldberg and Parag Khanna, http://www.ciaonet.org/olj/gjia/gjia_winspr00f.html)

Stability in the subcontinent now exists; it

AND

and it’s that fear of retaliation that deters.

Politics

GOP split blocks now.

New York Times 3/29/12 “Business Bets on the G.O.P. May Be Backfiring“ http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/29/business/with-bank-teetering-a-bet-on-the-gop-backfires.html

Big business groups like the Chamber of Commerce

AND

the conservative political action committee Club for Growth.

Not key to the economy

Kelsey Snell 3/22/12 The National JournalMarch 22, 2012Export-Import Bank on the Firing Line Lexis

But opponents (deficit hawks, laissez-

AND

Electric would keep selling components across the globe.

Tax debate moving up now – will tank capital

Politico 3/29 GOP may accelerate major tax votes - John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman - POLITICO.com

The tax debate cometh — and sooner than

AND

GOP allies in corporate America and the affluent.

 ( ) No spillover.

Matthew Dickinson, ’9 Professor of political science at Middlebury College. He taught previously at Harvard University, where he also received his Ph.D., working under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, 5/29, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power”

Despite the much publicized and celebrated instances of

AND

the decision to present Sotomayor as his nominee.

( ) Winners win.

Green 10 – professor of political science at Hofstra University (David Michael Green, 6/11/10, " The Do-Nothing 44th President ", http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Do-Nothing-44th-Presid-by-David-Michael-Gree-100611-648.html)

Moreover, there is a continuously evolving and

AND

Thomas, this is precisely what they did.

Counterinsurgency assistance to Yemen is unanimously bipartisan

Scahill ’11 (Jeremy, The Nation, “The Dangerous US Game in Yemen,” 3/30, )

It was the Bush administration that declared the

AND

going to go on for a long time.”

Terrorism outweighs their links – biggest issue for Congress.

NewsMax, ’10 (http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/US-Obama-Terror-Politics/2010/01/21/id/347631)

Terrorism is creeping back to the forefront of

AND

issues, but it was already a priority."

 ( ) Congress and specifically McCain love the plan.

Al-Azaki 10 (Mohammed, reporter for THE YEMEN POST, "CLOSELY OBSERVING COUNTRY’S SITUATION, US ADMINISTRATION ADVISED TO GIVE HAND TO YEMEN" 4-10-2010. ) JCP

A US Congress delegation chaired by former Republican

AND

– including operations by NATO inside Yemeni lands.

McCain key – overcomes links.

Adams, CQ Weekly, 8 (Rebecca, 11/8/08 (“CQ Weekly Vantage Point: Farewell or a Future? McCain Still Has Role as Bipartisan Dealmaker,” LN)

A likelier scenario, observers say, is

AND

last years in the Senate reinforcing that image.”

Empirically denied – recession.

Barnett, senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC, 8/25/200’9, http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules--security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx

When the global financial crisis struck roughly a

AND

-World War II international liberal trade order.

Heg not solve war –

A. No threats require primacy and other factors ensure security.

Friedman and Preble 10 (Benjamin Friedman is a research fellow in defense and homeland security studies at the Cato Institute, Christopher Preble is director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, Budgetary Savings from Military Restraint, September 22, 2010 Cato Policy Analysis No. 667 September 23, 2010 http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/PA667.pdf

The United States confuses what it wants from

AND

is a game not worth the candle.56

A2: Saudi

Production rules keep Russia out

Inozemtsev 09, Director, Centre for Post-Industrial Studies, Moscow

Vladislov, RFP Roundtable Summaruy, 10 March, "The ‘Resource Curse’ and Russia’s Economic Crisis"

http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Russia%20and%20Eurasia/100309inozemtsev.pdf

Is there any prospect of Russia joining OPEC?

OPEC requires its members to adhere to rules governing production. Russia will not join OPEC because it does not want to be subject to these rules. The leadership doesn’t want to obey any rules at all – it wants to be setting them.

Economic needs prevent OPEC membership

MercoPress 08

September 19, http://en.mercopress

AND

level-delegation-to-opec-meeting

Analyst believe Russia will not join OPEC but

AND

investment in the industry and growing budget demands.

Saudis already doubt our security guarantees.

John Hannah, 1/9/12 former national security advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. LA Times The U.S.: MIA in the Mideast http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-hannah-mideast-20120109,0,4362289.story

The signposts are there for anyone who cares

AND

which had stood for more than 60 years.

The plan solves US-Saudi relations – terrorism is the one definitive area of cooperation and it definitely outweighs your link.

Boucek 9/12/11 (Christopher, Associate in the Carnegie Endowment Middle East Program, “Terrorism out of Saudi Arabia,” )

Saudi Arabia’s influence and interest in combating terrorists

AND

both countries recognize the importance of the relationship.

No Central Asian War –

A. SCO checks conflict.

Maksutov in ‘6 (Ruslan, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, “The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: A Central Asian Perspective”, August, http://www.sipri.org/contents/worldsec/Ruslan.SCO.pdf/download)

As a starting point, it is fair

AND

threats that now loom so large by comparison.

B. Central Asia won’t escalate.

Collins and Wohlforth ‘4  (Kathleen A, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame and William C, Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, “central Asia: Defying great game expectations” Strategic Asia March)

The popular great game lens for analyzing Central

AND

reinforce regional and domestic stability in Central Asia.

1AR

Politics

Only 8% risk of their link.

Matthew N Beckmann and Vimal Kumar 11, Associate Professor of Political Science at UC Irvine, econ prof at the Indian Institute of Tech, “Opportunism in Polarization”, Presidential Studies Quarterly; Sep 2011; 41, 3

The final important piece in our theoretical model

AND

not matter, but can in close cases.

The best quantitative research proves capital isn’t key.

Walter and Mondale, 2010 [Lawrence R. Jacobs isWalter F. and Joan Mondale Professor and Chair of Politics and Governance, University of Minnesota (ljacobs@umn.edu). Desmond S. King is AndrewW. Mellon Professor of American Government and Professorial Fellow, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, “ Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency”,   Perspectives on Politics, September 2010, Vol 8./No 3]

But personality is not a solid foundation for

AND

. Presidential sales pitches go only so far.

Prefer– Journalists overstate the importance of political capital.

Dickinson 9 professor of political science at Middlebury College (Matthew, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,”  May 26, 2009 Presidential Power http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/]

What is of more interest to me,

AND

power that cannot be measured through legislative boxscores.

1AC

Instability

Advantage One: Instability

The NTC is unable to manage the transition now.

Barfi 3/15/12 (Barak, research fellow at the New America Foundation, “Libya's frustrating transition,”

Although Libyans are now celebrating the first anniversary

AND

characterized the Gadhafi era will not be tolerated.

Their failure to decentralize causes renewed civil war.

Gulf New 3/9/12 Libya's national government has to deliver http://gulfnews.com/opinions/editorials/libya-39-s-national-government-has-to-deliver-1.991899

The oil-rich eastern region of Libya

AND

start to take Libya back to civil war.

Now is the critical juncture for Libya – centralization causes rapid civil war.

Ahmed & Martin 3/26/12 Understanding the Sanusi of Cyrenaica: How to avoid a civil war in Libya Professor Akbar Ahmed is Ibn Khaldun Chair of Islamic Studies at American University in Washington DC and the former Pakistani High Commissioner to the United Kingdom. Frankie Martin is an Ibn Khaldun Chair Research Fellow at American University's School of International Service http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/03/201232681712769133.html

Today, liberated Libya is at a critical

AND

none is richer than the Sanusi of Cyrenaica.

That spills over over regionally.

JASON PACK | MARCH 18, 2011 Libya Is Too Big to Fail International intervention is the right move -- and not just for humanitarian reasons.

Today we face a familiar dilemma. Libya

AND

simply too big to be allowed to fail.

Libyan state failure causes global draw in.

Heyman & Kudashkina 3/11/12 Libya: A Failed State? An Interview with Charles Heyman, Chief Analyst With armedforces.co.uk. http://02varvara.wordpress.com/2012/03/11/libya-a-failed-state-an-interview-with-charles-heyman-chief-analyst-with-armedforces-co-uk/

Charles Heyman The country does appear to be

AND

northern Europeans, and for NATO as well.

And independently, Libyan civil war escalates to global nuclear war.

Blank 2012 IMPLICATIONS OF THE ARAB SPRING IN EURASIA Stephen Blank (01/11/2012 issue of the CACI Analyst) http://cacianalyst.org/?q=node/5693

On November 17, 2011, General Makarov

AND

must be faced in analytical and policy considerations.

This supercharges every global Al-Qaeda movement

Mejia 3/5/12 (Paula, Good Fences Make Good Neighbors  A contributing writer for The Majalla based in Tunisia. As a freelance journalist and consultant for the African Development Bank, her work has focused on the economic and social challenges in Africa, with a special focus on Egypt, Tunisia and Libya. She is a graduate of the London School of Economics, L'Institut D'Etudes Politiques de Paris and the University of Chicago.

)

Libya’s neighbors are beginning to feel the consequences

AND

stabilize the region as a whole will be.

AQIM etc becomes super-terror—causes extinction

Yonah Alexander, 2010 Director Maghreb & Sahel Terrorism: Addressing the Rising Threat from al-Qaeda & other Terrorists in North & West/Central Africa International Center for Terrorism Studies at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies http://www.potomacinstitute.org/attachments/524_Maghreb%20Terrorism%20report.pdf

Perpetrators and Motivations Current and future perpetrators include

AND

which they could forever alter our planet’s existence.

Libya is a unique risk for nuclear terror—

Audrey Williams, March 2012 Stanley Foundation Policy and Outreach Intern Beyond Boundaries: WMD Nonproliferation in Africa

By and large, the African continent lags

AND

makes terrorist seizure of said material increasingly liable.

High risk of nuclear terrorism –most qualified experts agree.

US Russia Joint Threat Assessment May ‘11

(http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard

AND

%2027%20May%202011.pdf)

 ABOUT THE U.S.-RUSSIA

AND

-profit organization “Counter-Terrorism Center.”

The expert community distinguishes pathways terrorists might take

AND

scale the first act of nuclear terrorism occurs.

Detonation would collapse government structures and ensure irrationality –

George Michael ‘11, Associate Professor of Nuclear Counterproliferation & Deterrence Theory at the U.S. Air Force Counterproliferation Center, Spring/Summer (http://www.securityaffairs.org/issues/2011/20/michael.php)

And even if a single nuclear device were

AND

be that easy to put Humpty Dumpty together again

Single nuclear attack causes extinction.

Toon et al ‘07 (Owen B. Toon, chair of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU-Boulder, et al., April 19, climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf)

To an increasing extent, people are congregating

AND

well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

This ensures a US nuclear response.

Conley ‘03 (Lt Col Harry W. is chief of the Systems Analysis Branch, Directorate of Requirements, Headquarters Air Combat Command (ACC), Langley AFB, Virginia. Air & Space Power Journal – Spring, )

The number of American casualties suffered due to

AND

a possibility, whatever promises had been made.”

Global nuclear war.

Ayson ’10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University at Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, via InformaWorld)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non

AND

conclusions might it then draw about their culpability?

Terrorism studies are epistemologically and methodologically valid---our authors are self-reflexive

Boyle and Horgan 8 – Michael J. Boyle, School of International Relations, University of St. Andrews, and John Horgan, International Center for the Study of Terrorism, Department of Psychology, Pennsylvania State University, April 2008, “A Case Against Critical Terrorism Studies,” Critical Studies On Terrorism, Vol. 1, No. 1, p. 51-64

Jackson (2007c) calls for the development

AND

produce such scathing indictments of its own work.

Oil

Advantage Two: Oil

Oil crisis imminent—the NTC will botch recovery

Hill & Majeed 11/7/11 (David Hill is a partner and Kanwal Majeed a trainee solicitor in Burlingtons Legal LLP’s oil and gas team * OPINION: Oil and politics – Libya’s risky business Petroleum Economist )

But with the former dictator deposed, the

AND

entities and ensure fuel supplies to the rebels.

Power consolidation and centralization makes recovery impossible

Besada and Martin ‘11 (Hany and Phillip, 11/9, Wednesday Natural resource governance in Libya Korea Times)

The stability of Libya's post-Gadhafi political

AND

governing coalition emerges from Libya's chaotic political scene.

That causes failure of oil industry

Derek Brower, 10/3/11 Rivalries threaten Libya's new rulers Petroleum Economist  

Meanwhile, despite the rapid growth in oil

AND

increasingly difficult for potential investors and other outsiders.

Libya crisis causes global shocks

UPI 1/24/12 (Libya boosts oil output but dangers lurk http://www.libya-businessnews.com/2012/01/25/libya-boosts-oil-output-but-dangers-lurk/)

Two major oil companies in Libya say they

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1 million bpd, months earlier than expected.

Those are comparatively the largest threat to the economy

Roubini 3/17/12 (Nouriel, Chairman of Roubini Global Economics and professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business. The Fear Premium http://www.slate.com/articles/business/project_syndicate/2012/03/the_iran_israel_conflict_could_cause_another_global_recession_here_s_how_.html)

Today’s fragile global economy faces many risks:

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emerging markets alike faced a recessionary tipping point.

Decline will be global

Warner 1/5/12 Jeremy Warner, assistant editor of The Daily Telegraph, is one of Britain's leading business and economics commentators. A serial winner of awards, he has also been honoured for an "outstanding contribution in defence of freedom of the media" by the Society of Editors for his refusal to reveal sources to Government inspectors

 To almost universal surprise, much of

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activity. Oil's capacity to shock goes undiminished.

Extinction

Kemp ‘10 (Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center, served in the White House under Ronald Reagan, special assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs on the National Security Council Staff, Former Director, Middle East Arms Control Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010, The East Moves West: India, China, and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, p. 233-4)

The second scenario, called Mayhem and Chaos

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for two-thirds of the planet’s population.

There’ll be short term shocks—no fill-in supply for Libyan oil

Stankovska & Lavender Nov. 2011 Elena Stankovska Assistant Knowledge Manager Linda Lavender Team Leader, Mediterranean Basin Civil-Military Fusion Centre Libyan Oil—Before and After Moammar Gaddafi

As Libyan oil became scarce on global oil

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oil and gasoline prices for Americans as well.

Solvency

US empirically best at influencing power-sharing and decentralization

Vandewalle ‘11 (Dirk, Dartmouth College, “The Reconstruction of Libya Local and International Constraints and Opportunities,” Testimony before the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, 6 April, 2011, http://foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Vandewalle%20Testimony.pdf)

In the struggle over Libya, as the

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more would prove immensely helpful in this regard.

US is pushing NTC centralization now – the plan averts this

Pack and Barfi February 2012 (Jason and Barak, In War’s Wake The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya Policy Focus #118 | Washington Institute for Near East Policy Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, Currently a doctoral student at Cambridge University, he holds a master’s degree in imperial history from St. Antony’s College. Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. A former visiting fellow with the Brookings Institution, he spent six months in Libya during the revolution)

Provide experts to interface with the Libyan government

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, establishing connections between them and the center.

Plan: The United States federal government should support capacity-building initiatives between the National Transition Council and local institutions in Libya.

Decentralization solves Libyan escalation

Kaplan 3/13/2012 (Seth

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-benghazis-demand-for-autonomy/)

Last week, 3,000 militia and

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rejection of Banghazi’s demands needs to be reconsidered.

Decentralization compromise is critical to account for local tensions and minority rights

International Relations and Security Network (ISN) 3/21/12 The ISN, a project of the Center for Security Studies (ETH), is one of the world’s leading open access information services for international relations and security professionals “Libya’s Struggle with Federalism” http://isnblog.ethz.ch/government/libya%E2%80%99s-struggle-with-federalism

Opponents and supporters of federalism clashed with knives

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and based around a consensus among Libya’s people.

Libya says yes

Libyan Prime Minister Abdel-Rahim Elkeib 3/9/12 LIBYAN PRIME MINISTER ABDEL-RAHIM ELKEIB FRIDAY, MARCH 9, 2012 WASHINGTON, D.C. WELCOME/MODERATOR: Marwan Muasher Vice President for Studies

In terms of decentralizing the government operations,

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is going to cause problems. [xxxxx]

I mean, it's totally unfair for someone

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U.S. will also do that.

Capacity building is critical to decentralization

HARRY BLAIR 2000 Ph.D., Duke

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edited by Peter Burnell. P. 228)

USAID Programming in Democratic Decentralization The principal stated

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and advocacy roles, which means free media.

A2 T – Substantial = %

1. We meet – we substantially increase assistance to Libya by the required percentage.

2. Counter-interpretation – substantially means materially or essentially.

Words and Phrases ’02 (Words and Phrases Permanent Edition, “Substantial,” Volume 40A, p. 448-486 October 2002, Thomson West)

M.D.Tenn. 1941.

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Co., 39 F.Supp. 992.

3. Additionally, substantially must be evaluated within the context of the plan.

Words and Phrases ’02 (Words and Phrases Permanent Edition, “Substantial,” Volume 40A, p. 448-486 October 2002, Thomson West)

Cust & Pat.Ap. 1946.

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term to be interpreted in accordance with context.

Kindell & Reilly, '97

(EO CPE Lobbyist, ftp://66.77.65.232/pub/irs-tege/eotopicp97.pdf)

Most cases have either tended to avoid any attempt at percentage measurement of activities or, at least, have stated that a percentage test is not conclusive. Thus, in Christian Echoes National Ministry, Inc. v. United States, 470 F.2d 849 (10th Cir. 1972), cert. denied, 414 U.S. 864 (1974), the Tenth Circuit rejected the use of a percentage test to determine whether activities were substantial, stating that [a] percentage test to determine whether activities were substantial obscures the complexity of balancing the organization’s activities in relation to its objectives and circumstances.”

A2 T – DA

1. We meet – the form of governance assistance we give is democratic by decentralizing the government and creating a more effective power-sharing scheme.

2. Counter-Interpretation – Democracy assistance is governance and three other things.

Azpuru ’11 (Dinorah, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Wichita State University, “The Promotion of Democracy: Actors and Methods,” Achieving Democracy: Democratization in Theory and Practice)

Figure 14.2 shows, by sector

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least amount of aid was channeled to elections.

Case

No Russian Economy Impact —

A. No impact—no change in foreign policy

Blackwill ‘9 – former associate dean of the Kennedy School of Government and Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Planning (Robert, RAND, “The Geopolitical Consequences of the World Economic Recession—A Caution”, http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP275.pdf, WEA)

Now on to Russia. Again, five

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in any serious way by the economic crisis.

Coercion

( ) No link – plan comes out of the already budgeted regional response fund.

McInerney, '11 (Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)

Transitions in the Middle East are a top

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Syria, Libya, Yemen, or elsewhere.

( ) No Link – Plan’s a trade off –

B. FY2011 budget bill gives discretion to Obama to make cuts – they’d take existing appropriations to fund the plan.

McInerney, July '11 (Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)

To begin with, there are three major

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begin the FY12 appropriations process on July 27.

Extinction is a side constraint - ethics demands you evaluate our impact first.

Seeley, ’86 (Central Comm. for Conscientious Objectors, Handbook of Non-Violence, p. 269-70)

In moral reasoning prediction of consequences is nearly

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nuclear war utterly impermissible under any sane moral code

A2 Conditions CP

Conditioning aid on strategic considerations hurts our signal of commitment

Kathy Lally, Deputy Foreign Editor – Baltimore Sun Mary Beth and Sheridan, Correspondent – Wash Post, 3/6/11 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/05/AR2011030503569.html)

"Aid should not be used to support

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associated with policies rather than with popular needs."

3. Perm – Do Both

Conditions make democracy assistance fail.

Steven Finkel, professor at  the University of Pittsburgh and Hertie School of Governance, ‘8

Our analysis also found that democracy assistance is

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may be high enough to compromise its impact.

A2 India CP

6. Only the US dodges this

Daniel Solomon 8/21/2011 Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service National Director of STAND, a student political constituency organization focused on genocide and mass atrocities prevention and civilian protection policy sub-saharan africa and the intelligence community’s strategic threat assessment http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1466&op=yes

I disagree with the concept that the Libyans

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the U.S. should seize it.

5. Means Libya says no to the CP

The Economist 1/16/12 Business in Libya Don't rip us off

Yet more-entrenched obstacles to foreign investment

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guns are not what Libya needs or wants.

Politics

No pass – GOP blocks

Inside U.S. Trade - 03/30/2012 McDermott Blames Republicans For Holding Trade Bills Hostage This Year http://insidetrade.com/Inside-US-Trade/Inside-U.S.-Trade-03/30/2012/mcdermott-blames-republicans-for-holding-trade-bills-hostage-this-year/menu-id-172.html

Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA

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he would benefit from it," he said.

No pass – takes 4 months

Inside U.S. Trade - 03/16/2012 Baucus Eyes Russia MFN Vote After Duma Ratifies WTO Accession

He signaled that it was still early in

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out the right way to deal with it."

A pro-Russia MFN lobbyist said it

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a potential Senate floor vote, he said.

No compromise on Magnitsky now.

Josh Rogin 3/29 Lugar’s endorsement pushes Magnitsky Act forward Foreign Policy http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/03/29/lugar_s_endorsement_pushes_magnitsky_act_forward

According to several congressional aides, that request

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"We want to see where Magnitsky goes."

Tax debate moving up now – will tank capital

Politico 3/29 GOP may accelerate major tax votes - John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman - POLITICO.com

The tax debate cometh — and sooner than

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GOP allies in corporate America and the affluent.

Winners win

Marshall and Prins 11, Bryan W., poli sci at Miami University, Ohio, Brandon C., poli sci at the University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3 (September) 2011

Presidents rely heavily on Congress in converting their

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managing political capital at home (Fordham 2002).

I

Presidential leadership’s irrelevant

Jacobs and King 10, University of Minnesota, Nuffield College, (Lawrence and Desmond, “Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency,”  Perspectives on Politics (2010), 8: 793-802) 

 But personality is not a solid foundation

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. Presidential sales pitches go only so far.

GOP loves the plan and it doesn’t spend money

FoxNews 10-21, “Republicans Push for U.S. Role in Rebuilding Libya”, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/10/21/republicans-push-for-us-role-in-rebuilding-libya/

With Muammar Qaddafi finally out of the picture

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need a lot of help in that direction.”

Decentralization assistance is bipartisan – creates cooperation despite polarization.

USAID 2009 DEMOCRATIC DECENTRALIZATION PROGRAMMING HANDBOOK Edwin Connerley, Ph.D. Senior Advisor-Decentralization and Local Governance USAID/Office of Democracy and Governance

One of the more curious aspects of decentralization

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cut across traditional partisan lines and ideological cleavages.

Alt cause -- Can’t overwhelm the litany of issues.

-NATO Expansion       -Contest for Eurasia     -Georgia                       -Caucuses

Bhadrakumar, ‘9 (Was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service7/11/ p. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/KG11Ag01.html

Three, does the reset itself, therefore

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conflict in the Caucasus, and so on.

Politics

Only 8% risk of their link.

Matthew N Beckmann and Vimal Kumar 11, Associate Professor of Political Science at UC Irvine, econ prof at the Indian Institute of Tech, “Opportunism in Polarization”, Presidential Studies Quarterly; Sep 2011; 41, 3

The final important piece in our theoretical model

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not matter, but can in close cases.

The best quantitative research proves capital isn’t key.

Walter and Mondale, 2010 [Lawrence R. Jacobs isWalter F. and Joan Mondale Professor and Chair of Politics and Governance, University of Minnesota (ljacobs@umn.edu). Desmond S. King is AndrewW. Mellon Professor of American Government and Professorial Fellow, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, “ Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency”,   Perspectives on Politics, September 2010, Vol 8./No 3]

But personality is not a solid foundation for

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. Presidential sales pitches go only so far.

Prefer– Journalists overstate the importance of political capital.

Dickinson 9 professor of political science at Middlebury College (Matthew, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,”  May 26, 2009 Presidential Power http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/]

What is of more interest to me,

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power that cannot be measured through legislative boxscores.

Obama doesn’t use political capital like what your internals assume.

Pages, 10/14/11 (Columnist – Tribune, http://www.newstimes.com/opinion/article/Obama-s-lonely-presidency-2219189.php)

News media depict presidencies as long-running

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as lawmakers face reelection races of their own.