Iowa » NDT Aff - Iowa Aufderheide & Kann

NDT Aff - Iowa Aufderheide & Kann

Last modified by Administrator on 2012/10/17 22:29
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  • Round 1

    • Tournament: NDT | Round: 1 | Opponent: Boston College MC | Judge: Brovero, Garrett, Garrett

    • 1AC

      Plan: The United States federal government should provide judicial training for Yemeni domestic police forces under the command of General Ali Mohsin.

       

      Inherency

      The US is stepping up cooperation with Yemeni security forces, but now is a key time to determine the direction of aid

      Wall Street Journal 3/6/12 (Margaret Coker, Hakim Almasmari, and Julian E. Barnes, “U.S., Yemen Restart Training,” )

      U.S. and Yemeni officials have

      AND

      to return this month to continue those talks.

      The Yemeni police force is in disarray and unable to deal with threats// – corruption is high, torture is rampant, and there are no effective training programs.

      Global Security 7/28/11 (“Yemen Intelligence Agencies,” )

      The law prohibits torture; however, according

      AND

      central locus of consequential police corruption in Yemen.

       

      Advantage One- Terror

      AQAP is increasing its foothold in Yemen and has the motives and capabilities to attack the United States.

      Zimmerman 2/17/12 (Katherine, Gulf of Aden Team Lead for the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, “Recipe for Failure: American Strategy toward Yemen and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula,” American Enterprise Institute, )

      The threat to Americans from al Qaeda in

      AND

      if they secure an expanded sanctuary in Yemen.

      AQAP will attack the United States and is a comparatively more dangerous than other branches.

      Boucek ’11 (Dr. Christopher, Associate, Middle East Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Written Testimony Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs Washington, D.C. July 19, ]

      Since its creation in January 2009, the

      AND

      explosives concealed as cargo packages mailed from Yemen.

      AQAP will soon have nuclear capabilities.

      Fissile Materials Working Group ’11 (The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, “After bin Laden: Nuclear terrorism still a top threat,” 5/13, )

      Osama bin Laden's death may represent a significant

      AND

      priority must be securing this potential source material.

      An AQAP strike would cause extinction.

      Alexander ’10 (Yonah, Director of the International Center for Terrorism Studies at the Potomac Institute for Policy Sciences, “Maghreb & Sahel Terrorism: Addressing the Rising Threat from al-Qaeda & other Terrorists in North & West/Central Africa,” January, )

      Current and future perpetrators include the following:

      AND

      which they could forever alter our planet’s existence.

      Single attack causes extinction.

      Toon et al ‘07 (Owen B. Toon, chair of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU-Boulder, et al., April 19, climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf)

      To an increasing extent, people are congregating

      AND

      well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

      High risk of nuclear terrorism –most qualified experts agree.

      US Russia Joint Threat Assessment May ‘11

      (http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard

      AND

      %2027%20May%202011.pdf)

       ABOUT THE U.S.-RUSSIA

      AND

      -profit organization “Counter-Terrorism Center.”

      The expert community distinguishes pathways terrorists might take

      AND

      scale the first act of nuclear terrorism occurs.

      Detonation would collapse government structures and ensure irrationality –

      George Michael ‘11, Associate Professor of Nuclear Counterproliferation & Deterrence Theory at the U.S. Air Force Counterproliferation Center, Spring/Summer (http://www.securityaffairs.org/issues/2011/20/michael.php)

      And even if a single nuclear device were

      AND

      that easy to put Humpty Dumpty together again.

      Independently, AQAP would strike with CBW’s.

      Baldor ‘11 (Lolita, Associated Press, “U.S. Plans to Train Yemeni Counter-Terrorism Unit” Monday, February 14, )

      Senior U.S. intelligence officials told

      AND

      , and urge others to do the same.

      The success of an attack is highly probable – even a small attack will spread quickly.

      Russell ’06 (Lindsey, Contributing Writer, Associated Content, “Is Bioterrorism Inevitable?” 10/27, )

      Professor Robert S. Root-Bernstein in

      AND

      air conditioning/heating units from bioterrorist threats.

      This ensures a US nuclear response.

      Conley ‘03 (Lt Col Harry W. is chief of the Systems Analysis Branch, Directorate of Requirements, Headquarters Air Combat Command (ACC), Langley AFB, Virginia. Air & Space Power Journal – Spring, )

       

      The number of American casualties suffered due to

      AND

      a possibility, whatever promises had been made.”

      Global nuclear war.

      Ayson ’10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University at Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, via InformaWorld)

      But these two nuclear worlds—a non

      AND

      conclusions might it then draw about their culpability?

      AQAP threatens regional stability – the impact is global nuclear war.

      Riedel ’11 (Bruce, Senior Fellow in the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution, “Where al Qaeda is Winning,” 6/27, )

      Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is a

      AND

      grim for everyone but al Qaeda in Yemen.

      Terrorism studies are epistemologically and methodologically valid---our authors are self-reflexive

      Boyle and Horgan 8 – Michael J. Boyle, School of International Relations, University of St. Andrews, and John Horgan, International Center for the Study of Terrorism, Department of Psychology, Pennsylvania State University, April 2008, “A Case Against Critical Terrorism Studies,” Critical Studies On Terrorism, Vol. 1, No. 1, p. 51-64

      Jackson (2007c) calls for the development

      AND

      produce such scathing indictments of its own work.

       

      Advantage Two: Intervention

      Proper police training represents the key ingredient for a transition to counter-insurgency.

      Grono ’11 (Nick, Deputy President of Crisis Group, , 1/24)

      1. Good policing is critical to counter

      AND

      is the time there will be real security”.

      Plan would prove the success of this model of assistance – spills over

      Bergenas ’11 (Johan, Research Associate at the Stimson Center, “Bridging the Security-Development Divide,” The Will and the Wallet, World Politics Review, 3/7, )

      Take for instance efforts to improve legal,

      AND

      in the Middle East but throughout the world.

      Yemen is the litmus-test of future counter-terrorism strategy – the time is right for a strategy shift

      Cilluffo and Watts ‘11 [Frank J. Cilluffo is the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University and Clinton Watts is a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute. He is a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI., Homeland Security Policy Institute, “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity”, June 24, 2011, http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm]

      Debates over the legality of pursuing AQAP in

      AND

      now to prevent an inevitable attack from AQAP.

       

      US intervention in regional conflicts is inevitable – it’s just a question of whether or not it includes this brand of counterinsurgency.

      Curry ‘08 (Tom, MSNBC national affairs writer, 7/12/08, )

      Retired Army officer Andrew Krepinevich, the head

      AND

      .S. security or economic well being.”

      We control impact uniqueness – localized conflicts will be the wars of the future, not high-intensity exchanges.

      Marston ’04 (Daniel, Ph.D., Research Fellow, focusing on how armies learn and reform, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National U; former Senior Lecturer, War Studies, Royal Military Academy-Sandhurst; lecturer on COIN to military units in Australia, UK, Canada, and US, “Force Structure for High- and Low-Intensity Warfare: The Anglo-American Experience and Lessons for the Future,” ) 

      While the exact scope of future war is

      AND

      , and the second Intifada in Israel.16

      These are the most probable nuclear conflicts.

      Richards '07 (Phd & J Addams & Partners, Inc, )

      Beginning with Mao Tse-Tung, and

      AND

      the scenes of horror and brutality that ensue.

      Future conflicts will be between states and non-state actors – great power wars are over.

      Anne-Marie Slaughter is the Bert G Kerstetter ‘66 University Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, August, ’11 (http://www.princeton.edu/~slaughtr/Commentary/RUSI.pdf)

      9/11 was the defining event of

      AND

      match for twenty-first-century problems.

       

      Solvency

      US judicial training of Yemeni police is the greatest step it can take to thwart terrorism //– represents a reversal of status quo counter-terrorism policy.

      Knoetgen ’11 (Peter, Captain in the US Naval Reserve, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil,” Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, 5/16, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil)

      Like most terror organisations, AQAP exists in

      AND

      experts providing cultural, regional and international expertise.

      Providing counter-insurgency training to the First Armoured Division is key to strategy shift, overcoming anti-American sentiment, and maintaining Saudi relations

      Hill 3/22/12 (Ginny, “Reforming Yemen’s Military,” Foreign Policy, )

      But neither Hadi nor al-Ashwal has

      AND

      stamped Hadi's elevation from vice president to president.

      Strategy shift in Yemen is needed to solve now – threat of an AQAP attack grows systemically

      Zimmerman 2/17/12 (Katherine, Gulf of Aden Team Lead for the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, “Recipe for Failure: American Strategy toward Yemen and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula,” American Enterprise Institute, )

      It is far from clear that American strategy

      AND

      there be a Yemen strategy that deserves success.

      US law enforcement training is essential to information exchange- this is the only way to prevent terrorism

       

      Millar and Rosland ‘7 [Alistair Millar is the director of the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation and Eric Rosand is a senior fellow at the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation in New York and a non-resident fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, “Building Global Alliances in the Fight against Terrorism”, November 2007, http://www.globalct.org/images/content/pdf/reports/better_world.pdf]

      In the international effort to combat terrorism,

      AND

      could have devastating ripples into the United States. 

      This is particularly true in Yemen – current US efforts will only succeed with information exchange

      Barfi ’10 [Barak Barfi is an independent analyst who has worked with ABC News affiliates in the Middle East, “How attacking AQAP influenced its strategy”, 2010, http://www.nato.int/docu/review/2010/Yemen/Yemen_AQAP/EN/]

      AQAP’s ability to survive the American-Yemeni

      AND

      competent military allies and reliable local intelligence assets.

      The plan would be a shift to a more comprehensive approach – that’s critical to successful international cooperation

      Boyle and Scmid ‘09 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009

      One of the greatest challenges currently facing the

      AND

      have bedevilled counter-terrorism cooperation thus far.

      This shift is critical to larger multilateral cooperation – there is a unique spillover effect

      Boyle and Scmid ‘09 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009

      The war on terror has failed to become

      AND

      more difficult than it would have otherwise been.

       

      2AC

       

      A2 T - Direct Assistance

      1. We meet – the specific type of training we give is democratic by teaching Yemeni police about due process, proper investigative techniques, and peaceful riot control.

      2. Counter-Interpretation – Democracy assistance is rule of law and three other things.

      Azpuru ’11 (Dinorah, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Wichita State University, “The Promotion of Democracy: Actors and Methods,” Achieving Democracy: Democratization in Theory and Practice)

      Figure 14.2 shows, by sector

      AND

      least amount of aid was channeled to elections.

      4. We meet the counter-interpretation – police training strengthens democratic rule of law.

      Grono ’11 (Nick, Deputy President of Crisis Group, , 1/24)

      A well-trained police force is also

      AND

      and better governance are all out of reach.

      5. Their interpretation is overlimiting – only allows for targeting countries that are already initiating elections or transitions which rules out half the topic.

      6. Our interpretation is most predictable – preserves all cases with democratic intent while limiting out general cases of military or security aid.

      7. They kill aff ground – only advantage ground allowed is democracy since that’s the only way of determining “democratic purpose.”

      8. Generics check – arguments like the World Bank counterplan and cap k check any limits or ground arguments, the neg will always be prepared to debate.

      9. Reasonability—

      (a) Good is good enough—our interpretation provides predictable limits and fair ground, satisfying the purpose of T as a voter.

       

      Case

      Yemeni based AQAP will strike Saudi oil facilities

      Murphy ’10 (AQAP’s Growing Security Threat to Saudi Arabia Jun 03, 2010 Caryle Murphy Caryle Murphy is an independent journalist based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. A former reporter for the Washington Post, she was awarded the 1990 Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting. She is the author of Passion For Islam.

      AQAP is now a major security threat to

      AND

      they are threatening…This is their danger.”

      Attack on Saudi oil causes a global oil shock

      Sokolski ‘5 (Sokolski, Executive Director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, 2005 (Henry, Testimony before the House International Relations Committee, 2/16, http://www.internationalrelations.house.gov/archives/109/sok021605.pdf)

      Iran also has a history of supporting terrorist

      AND

      to European states, Russia, and China.

      Saudi oil shock causes extinction

      Henderson ‘7 (Climate Change, Peak Oil And Nuclear War By Bill Henderson 24 February, 2007 Countercurrents.org

      A steep spike in the price of oil

      AND

      serious talk of pre-emptive nuclear attack.

       

      A2 Trade off DA

      Aid and Pressure to reform military to Yemen now

      Yemen News Agency 3/28 Feltman calls for restructuring military institution in Yemen

       [28/March/2012]

      AND

      sabanews.net/en/news264464.htm

      SANA'A, March 28 (Saba) -

      AND

      to Yemen in 2012 to $ 55 million.

       

       ( ) No link – plan comes out of the already budgeted regional response fund.

      McInerney, '11 (Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)

      Transitions in the Middle East are a top

      AND

      Syria, Libya, Yemen, or elsewhere.

      ( ) No Link – Plan’s a trade off –

      A. Millions are already appropriated for Yemen now but not spent.

      Malta Independent, 9/1/11 (http://www.independent.com.mt/news.asp?newsitemid=131301)

      The Pentagon had planned to spend at least

      AND

      and an increasingly threatening al-Qaeda affiliate.

      B. FY2011 budget bill gives discretion to Obama to make cuts – they’d take existing appropriations to fund the plan.

      McInerney, July '11 (Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)

      To begin with, there are three major

      AND

      begin the FY12 appropriations process on July 27.

      ( ) No Indo Pak War –

      A. Tensions decreasing.

      Krepon, ’10 [Michael, cofounder of the Stimson center, the Diplomat scholar at the university of Virginia, Joint Forces Quarterly, Lexis]

      The first such dominant trend is that Pakistan

      AND

      conducive to improved bilateral relationships on the subcontinent.

      B. Deterrence solves war.

      Waltz ‘2k (Kenneth, poli sci prof at Columbia University, research associate of the Institute of War and Peace Studies, Winter/Spring, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 1, No. 1, “Interview: Is Kenneth Waltz Still M.A.D. about Nukes?” Interviewed by Jeremy Goldberg and Parag Khanna, http://www.ciaonet.org/olj/gjia/gjia_winspr00f.html)

      Stability in the subcontinent now exists; it

      AND

      and it’s that fear of retaliation that deters.

       

      Politics

       

      GOP split blocks now.

      New York Times 3/29/12 “Business Bets on the G.O.P. May Be Backfiring“ http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/29/business/with-bank-teetering-a-bet-on-the-gop-backfires.html

      Big business groups like the Chamber of Commerce

      AND

      the conservative political action committee Club for Growth.

      Not key to the economy

      Kelsey Snell 3/22/12 The National JournalMarch 22, 2012Export-Import Bank on the Firing Line Lexis

      But opponents (deficit hawks, laissez-

      AND

      Electric would keep selling components across the globe.

      Tax debate moving up now – will tank capital

      Politico 3/29 GOP may accelerate major tax votes - John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman - POLITICO.com

      The tax debate cometh — and sooner than

      AND

      GOP allies in corporate America and the affluent.

       ( ) No spillover.

      Matthew Dickinson, ’9 Professor of political science at Middlebury College. He taught previously at Harvard University, where he also received his Ph.D., working under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, 5/29, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power”

      Despite the much publicized and celebrated instances of

      AND

      the decision to present Sotomayor as his nominee.

      ( ) Winners win.

      Green 10 – professor of political science at Hofstra University (David Michael Green, 6/11/10, " The Do-Nothing 44th President ", http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Do-Nothing-44th-Presid-by-David-Michael-Gree-100611-648.html)

      Moreover, there is a continuously evolving and

      AND

      Thomas, this is precisely what they did.

      Counterinsurgency assistance to Yemen is unanimously bipartisan

      Scahill ’11 (Jeremy, The Nation, “The Dangerous US Game in Yemen,” 3/30, )

      It was the Bush administration that declared the

      AND

      going to go on for a long time.”

      Terrorism outweighs their links – biggest issue for Congress.

      NewsMax, ’10 (http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/US-Obama-Terror-Politics/2010/01/21/id/347631)

      Terrorism is creeping back to the forefront of

      AND

      issues, but it was already a priority."

       ( ) Congress and specifically McCain love the plan.

      Al-Azaki 10 (Mohammed, reporter for THE YEMEN POST, "CLOSELY OBSERVING COUNTRY’S SITUATION, US ADMINISTRATION ADVISED TO GIVE HAND TO YEMEN" 4-10-2010. ) JCP

      A US Congress delegation chaired by former Republican

      AND

      – including operations by NATO inside Yemeni lands.

      McCain key – overcomes links.

      Adams, CQ Weekly, 8 (Rebecca, 11/8/08 (“CQ Weekly Vantage Point: Farewell or a Future? McCain Still Has Role as Bipartisan Dealmaker,” LN)

      A likelier scenario, observers say, is

      AND

      last years in the Senate reinforcing that image.”

      Empirically denied – recession.

      Barnett, senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC, 8/25/200’9, http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules--security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx

      When the global financial crisis struck roughly a

      AND

      -World War II international liberal trade order.

      Heg not solve war –

      A. No threats require primacy and other factors ensure security.

      Friedman and Preble 10 (Benjamin Friedman is a research fellow in defense and homeland security studies at the Cato Institute, Christopher Preble is director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, Budgetary Savings from Military Restraint, September 22, 2010 Cato Policy Analysis No. 667 September 23, 2010 http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/PA667.pdf

      The United States confuses what it wants from

      AND

      is a game not worth the candle.56

       

      A2: Saudi

      Production rules keep Russia out

      Inozemtsev 09, Director, Centre for Post-Industrial Studies, Moscow

      Vladislov, RFP Roundtable Summaruy, 10 March, "The ‘Resource Curse’ and Russia’s Economic Crisis"

      http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Russia%20and%20Eurasia/100309inozemtsev.pdf

      Is there any prospect of Russia joining OPEC?

      OPEC requires its members to adhere to rules governing production. Russia will not join OPEC because it does not want to be subject to these rules. The leadership doesn’t want to obey any rules at all – it wants to be setting them.

      Economic needs prevent OPEC membership

      MercoPress 08

      September 19, http://en.mercopress

      AND

      level-delegation-to-opec-meeting

      Analyst believe Russia will not join OPEC but

      AND

      investment in the industry and growing budget demands.

      Saudis already doubt our security guarantees.

      John Hannah, 1/9/12 former national security advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. LA Times The U.S.: MIA in the Mideast http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-hannah-mideast-20120109,0,4362289.story

      The signposts are there for anyone who cares

      AND

      which had stood for more than 60 years.

      The plan solves US-Saudi relations – terrorism is the one definitive area of cooperation and it definitely outweighs your link.

      Boucek 9/12/11 (Christopher, Associate in the Carnegie Endowment Middle East Program, “Terrorism out of Saudi Arabia,” )

      Saudi Arabia’s influence and interest in combating terrorists

      AND

      both countries recognize the importance of the relationship.

      No Central Asian War –

      A. SCO checks conflict.

      Maksutov in ‘6 (Ruslan, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, “The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: A Central Asian Perspective”, August, http://www.sipri.org/contents/worldsec/Ruslan.SCO.pdf/download)

      As a starting point, it is fair

      AND

      threats that now loom so large by comparison.

      B. Central Asia won’t escalate.

      Collins and Wohlforth ‘4  (Kathleen A, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame and William C, Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, “central Asia: Defying great game expectations” Strategic Asia March)

      The popular great game lens for analyzing Central

      AND

      reinforce regional and domestic stability in Central Asia.

       

      1AR

       

      Politics

       

      Only 8% risk of their link.

      Matthew N Beckmann and Vimal Kumar 11, Associate Professor of Political Science at UC Irvine, econ prof at the Indian Institute of Tech, “Opportunism in Polarization”, Presidential Studies Quarterly; Sep 2011; 41, 3

      The final important piece in our theoretical model

      AND

      not matter, but can in close cases.

      The best quantitative research proves capital isn’t key.

      Walter and Mondale, 2010 [Lawrence R. Jacobs isWalter F. and Joan Mondale Professor and Chair of Politics and Governance, University of Minnesota (ljacobs@umn.edu). Desmond S. King is AndrewW. Mellon Professor of American Government and Professorial Fellow, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, “ Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency”,   Perspectives on Politics, September 2010, Vol 8./No 3]

      But personality is not a solid foundation for

      AND

      . Presidential sales pitches go only so far.

      Prefer– Journalists overstate the importance of political capital.

      Dickinson 9 professor of political science at Middlebury College (Matthew, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,”  May 26, 2009 Presidential Power http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/]

      What is of more interest to me,

      AND

      power that cannot be measured through legislative boxscores.

       




03/30/12
  • 1AC Libya Round 5 v UMW MM

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • 1AC

      Instability

       

      Advantage One: Instability

      The NTC is unable to manage the transition now.

      Barfi 3/15/12 (Barak, research fellow at the New America Foundation, “Libya's frustrating transition,”

       

      Although Libyans are now celebrating the first anniversary

      AND

      characterized the Gadhafi era will not be tolerated.

      Their failure to decentralize causes renewed civil war.

      Gulf New 3/9/12 Libya's national government has to deliver http://gulfnews.com/opinions/editorials/libya-39-s-national-government-has-to-deliver-1.991899

       

      The oil-rich eastern region of Libya

      AND

      start to take Libya back to civil war.

       

      Now is the critical juncture for Libya – centralization causes rapid civil war.

      Ahmed & Martin 3/26/12 Understanding the Sanusi of Cyrenaica: How to avoid a civil war in Libya Professor Akbar Ahmed is Ibn Khaldun Chair of Islamic Studies at American University in Washington DC and the former Pakistani High Commissioner to the United Kingdom. Frankie Martin is an Ibn Khaldun Chair Research Fellow at American University's School of International Service http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/03/201232681712769133.html

       

      Today, liberated Libya is at a critical

      AND

      none is richer than the Sanusi of Cyrenaica.

       

      That spills over over regionally.

      JASON PACK | MARCH 18, 2011 Libya Is Too Big to Fail International intervention is the right move -- and not just for humanitarian reasons.

       

      Today we face a familiar dilemma. Libya

      AND

      simply too big to be allowed to fail.

       

       

       

      Libyan state failure causes global draw in.

      Heyman & Kudashkina 3/11/12 Libya: A Failed State? An Interview with Charles Heyman, Chief Analyst With armedforces.co.uk. http://02varvara.wordpress.com/2012/03/11/libya-a-failed-state-an-interview-with-charles-heyman-chief-analyst-with-armedforces-co-uk/

       

      Charles Heyman The country does appear to be

      AND

      northern Europeans, and for NATO as well.

       

      And independently, Libyan civil war escalates to global nuclear war.

      Blank 2012 IMPLICATIONS OF THE ARAB SPRING IN EURASIA Stephen Blank (01/11/2012 issue of the CACI Analyst) http://cacianalyst.org/?q=node/5693

       

      On November 17, 2011, General Makarov

      AND

      must be faced in analytical and policy considerations.

      This supercharges every global Al-Qaeda movement

      Mejia 3/5/12 (Paula, Good Fences Make Good Neighbors  A contributing writer for The Majalla based in Tunisia. As a freelance journalist and consultant for the African Development Bank, her work has focused on the economic and social challenges in Africa, with a special focus on Egypt, Tunisia and Libya. She is a graduate of the London School of Economics, L'Institut D'Etudes Politiques de Paris and the University of Chicago.

      )

       

      Libya’s neighbors are beginning to feel the consequences

      AND

      stabilize the region as a whole will be.

       

       

      AQIM etc becomes super-terror—causes extinction

      Yonah Alexander, 2010 Director Maghreb & Sahel Terrorism: Addressing the Rising Threat from al-Qaeda & other Terrorists in North & West/Central Africa International Center for Terrorism Studies at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies http://www.potomacinstitute.org/attachments/524_Maghreb%20Terrorism%20report.pdf

       

      Perpetrators and Motivations Current and future perpetrators include

      AND

      which they could forever alter our planet’s existence.

       

      Libya is a unique risk for nuclear terror—

      Audrey Williams, March 2012 Stanley Foundation Policy and Outreach Intern Beyond Boundaries: WMD Nonproliferation in Africa

       

      By and large, the African continent lags

      AND

      makes terrorist seizure of said material increasingly liable.

       

      High risk of nuclear terrorism –most qualified experts agree.

      US Russia Joint Threat Assessment May ‘11

      (http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard

      AND

      %2027%20May%202011.pdf)

       ABOUT THE U.S.-RUSSIA

      AND

      -profit organization “Counter-Terrorism Center.”

      The expert community distinguishes pathways terrorists might take

      AND

      scale the first act of nuclear terrorism occurs.

       

      Detonation would collapse government structures and ensure irrationality –

      George Michael ‘11, Associate Professor of Nuclear Counterproliferation & Deterrence Theory at the U.S. Air Force Counterproliferation Center, Spring/Summer (http://www.securityaffairs.org/issues/2011/20/michael.php)

      And even if a single nuclear device were

      AND

      be that easy to put Humpty Dumpty together again

      Single nuclear attack causes extinction.

      Toon et al ‘07 (Owen B. Toon, chair of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at CU-Boulder, et al., April 19, climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf)

      To an increasing extent, people are congregating

      AND

      well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

       

      This ensures a US nuclear response.

      Conley ‘03 (Lt Col Harry W. is chief of the Systems Analysis Branch, Directorate of Requirements, Headquarters Air Combat Command (ACC), Langley AFB, Virginia. Air & Space Power Journal – Spring, )

       

      The number of American casualties suffered due to

      AND

      a possibility, whatever promises had been made.”

      Global nuclear war.

      Ayson ’10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University at Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, via InformaWorld)

       

      But these two nuclear worlds—a non

      AND

      conclusions might it then draw about their culpability?

       

      Terrorism studies are epistemologically and methodologically valid---our authors are self-reflexive

      Boyle and Horgan 8 – Michael J. Boyle, School of International Relations, University of St. Andrews, and John Horgan, International Center for the Study of Terrorism, Department of Psychology, Pennsylvania State University, April 2008, “A Case Against Critical Terrorism Studies,” Critical Studies On Terrorism, Vol. 1, No. 1, p. 51-64

      Jackson (2007c) calls for the development

      AND

      produce such scathing indictments of its own work.

       

      Oil

      Advantage Two: Oil

      Oil crisis imminent—the NTC will botch recovery

      Hill & Majeed 11/7/11 (David Hill is a partner and Kanwal Majeed a trainee solicitor in Burlingtons Legal LLP’s oil and gas team * OPINION: Oil and politics – Libya’s risky business Petroleum Economist )

       

      But with the former dictator deposed, the

      AND

      entities and ensure fuel supplies to the rebels.

      Power consolidation and centralization makes recovery impossible

      Besada and Martin ‘11 (Hany and Phillip, 11/9, Wednesday Natural resource governance in Libya Korea Times)

       

      The stability of Libya's post-Gadhafi political

      AND

      governing coalition emerges from Libya's chaotic political scene.

       

      That causes failure of oil industry

      Derek Brower, 10/3/11 Rivalries threaten Libya's new rulers Petroleum Economist  

       

      Meanwhile, despite the rapid growth in oil

      AND

      increasingly difficult for potential investors and other outsiders.

       

       

      Libya crisis causes global shocks

      UPI 1/24/12 (Libya boosts oil output but dangers lurk http://www.libya-businessnews.com/2012/01/25/libya-boosts-oil-output-but-dangers-lurk/)

       

      Two major oil companies in Libya say they

      AND

      1 million bpd, months earlier than expected.

      Those are comparatively the largest threat to the economy

      Roubini 3/17/12 (Nouriel, Chairman of Roubini Global Economics and professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business. The Fear Premium http://www.slate.com/articles/business/project_syndicate/2012/03/the_iran_israel_conflict_could_cause_another_global_recession_here_s_how_.html)

       

      Today’s fragile global economy faces many risks:

      AND

      emerging markets alike faced a recessionary tipping point.

      Decline will be global

      Warner 1/5/12 Jeremy Warner, assistant editor of The Daily Telegraph, is one of Britain's leading business and economics commentators. A serial winner of awards, he has also been honoured for an "outstanding contribution in defence of freedom of the media" by the Society of Editors for his refusal to reveal sources to Government inspectors

       

       To almost universal surprise, much of

      AND

      activity. Oil's capacity to shock goes undiminished.

      Extinction

      Kemp ‘10 (Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center, served in the White House under Ronald Reagan, special assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs on the National Security Council Staff, Former Director, Middle East Arms Control Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010, The East Moves West: India, China, and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, p. 233-4)

       

      The second scenario, called Mayhem and Chaos

      AND

      for two-thirds of the planet’s population.

       

       

      There’ll be short term shocks—no fill-in supply for Libyan oil

      Stankovska & Lavender Nov. 2011 Elena Stankovska Assistant Knowledge Manager Linda Lavender Team Leader, Mediterranean Basin Civil-Military Fusion Centre Libyan Oil—Before and After Moammar Gaddafi

       

      As Libyan oil became scarce on global oil

      AND

      oil and gasoline prices for Americans as well.

      Solvency

       

      US empirically best at influencing power-sharing and decentralization

      Vandewalle ‘11 (Dirk, Dartmouth College, “The Reconstruction of Libya Local and International Constraints and Opportunities,” Testimony before the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, 6 April, 2011, http://foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Vandewalle%20Testimony.pdf)

       

      In the struggle over Libya, as the

      AND

      more would prove immensely helpful in this regard.

      US is pushing NTC centralization now – the plan averts this

      Pack and Barfi February 2012 (Jason and Barak, In War’s Wake The Struggle for Post-Qadhafi Libya Policy Focus #118 | Washington Institute for Near East Policy Jason Pack, president of Libya-Analysis.com, Currently a doctoral student at Cambridge University, he holds a master’s degree in imperial history from St. Antony’s College. Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation, specializing in Arab and Islamic affairs. A former visiting fellow with the Brookings Institution, he spent six months in Libya during the revolution)

       

      Provide experts to interface with the Libyan government

      AND

      establishing connections between them and the center.

      Plan: The United States federal government should support capacity-building initiatives between the National Transition Council and local institutions in Libya.

      Decentralization solves Libyan escalation

      Kaplan 3/13/2012 (Seth

      AND

      -benghazis-demand-for-autonomy/)

       

      Last week, 3,000 militia and

      AND

      rejection of Banghazi’s demands needs to be reconsidered.

       

      Decentralization compromise is critical to account for local tensions and minority rights

      International Relations and Security Network (ISN) 3/21/12 The ISN, a project of the Center for Security Studies (ETH), is one of the world’s leading open access information services for international relations and security professionals “Libya’s Struggle with Federalism” http://isnblog.ethz.ch/government/libya%E2%80%99s-struggle-with-federalism

       

      Opponents and supporters of federalism clashed with knives

      AND

      and based around a consensus among Libya’s people.

       

       

      Libya says yes

      Libyan Prime Minister Abdel-Rahim Elkeib 3/9/12 LIBYAN PRIME MINISTER ABDEL-RAHIM ELKEIB FRIDAY, MARCH 9, 2012 WASHINGTON, D.C. WELCOME/MODERATOR: Marwan Muasher Vice President for Studies

       

      In terms of decentralizing the government operations,

      AND

      is going to cause problems. [xxxxx]

      I mean, it's totally unfair for someone

      AND

      U.S. will also do that.

       

      Capacity building is critical to decentralization

      HARRY BLAIR 2000 Ph.D., Duke

      AND

      edited by Peter Burnell. P. 228)

       

      USAID Programming in Democratic Decentralization The principal stated

      AND

      and advocacy roles, which means free media.

       




03/30/12
  • 2AC Topicality Round 5

    • Tournament: NDT | Round: 5 | Opponent: UMW MM | Judge:

    • A2 T – Substantial = %

      1. We meet – we substantially increase assistance to Libya by the required percentage.

      2. Counter-interpretation – substantially means materially or essentially.

       

      Words and Phrases ’02 (Words and Phrases Permanent Edition, “Substantial,” Volume 40A, p. 448-486 October 2002, Thomson West)

       

      M.D.Tenn. 1941.

      AND

      Co., 39 F.Supp. 992.

      3. Additionally, substantially must be evaluated within the context of the plan.

       

      Words and Phrases ’02 (Words and Phrases Permanent Edition, “Substantial,” Volume 40A, p. 448-486 October 2002, Thomson West)

       

      Cust & Pat.Ap. 1946.

      AND

      term to be interpreted in accordance with context.

       

      Kindell & Reilly, '97

      (EO CPE Lobbyist, ftp://66.77.65.232/pub/irs-tege/eotopicp97.pdf)

      Most cases have either tended to avoid any attempt at percentage measurement of activities or, at least, have stated that a percentage test is not conclusiveThus, in Christian Echoes National Ministry, Inc. v. United States, 470 F.2d 849 (10th Cir. 1972), cert. denied, 414 U.S. 864 (1974), the Tenth Circuit rejected the use of a percentage test to determine whether activities were substantial, stating that [a] percentage test to determine whether activities were substantial obscures the complexity of balancing the organization’s activities in relation to its objectives and circumstances.”

       

      A2 T – DA

      1. We meet – the form of governance assistance we give is democratic by decentralizing the government and creating a more effective power-sharing scheme.

      2. Counter-Interpretation – Democracy assistance is governance and three other things.

       

      Azpuru ’11 (Dinorah, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Wichita State University, “The Promotion of Democracy: Actors and Methods,” Achieving Democracy: Democratization in Theory and Practice)

       

      Figure 14.2 shows, by sector

      AND

      least amount of aid was channeled to elections.

       




03/31/12
  • 2AC Case Round 5

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: UMW MM | Judge:

    • Case

      No Russian Economy Impact —

      A. No impact—no change in foreign policy

      Blackwill ‘9 – former associate dean of the Kennedy School of Government and Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Planning (Robert, RAND, “The Geopolitical Consequences of the World Economic Recession—A Caution”, http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP275.pdf, WEA)

      Now on to Russia. Again, five

      AND

      in any serious way by the economic crisis.




03/31/12
  • 2AC Coercion Round 5

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: UMW MM | Judge:

    • Coercion

      ( ) No link – plan comes out of the already budgeted regional response fund.

       

      McInerney, '11 (Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)

      Transitions in the Middle East are a top

      AND

      Syria, Libya, Yemen, or elsewhere.

      ( ) No Link – Plan’s a trade off –

      B. FY2011 budget bill gives discretion to Obama to make cuts – they’d take existing appropriations to fund the plan.

       

      McInerney, July '11 (Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)

      To begin with, there are three major

      AND

      begin the FY12 appropriations process on July 27.

      Extinction is a side constraint - ethics demands you evaluate our impact first.

       

      Seeley, ’86 (Central Comm. for Conscientious Objectors, Handbook of Non-Violence, p. 269-70)

      In moral reasoning prediction of consequences is nearly

      AND

      nuclear war utterly impermissible under any sane moral code




03/31/12
  • 2AC Grant Matching CP Round 5

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: UMW MM | Judge:

    • A2 Conditions CP

      Conditioning aid on strategic considerations hurts our signal of commitment

       

      Kathy Lally, Deputy Foreign Editor – Baltimore Sun Mary Beth and Sheridan, Correspondent – Wash Post, 3/6/11 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/05/AR2011030503569.html)

      "Aid should not be used to support

      AND

      associated with policies rather than with popular needs."

      3. Perm – Do Both

      Conditions make democracy assistance fail.

       

      Steven Finkel, professor at  the University of Pittsburgh and Hertie School of Governance, ‘8

       

      Our analysis also found that democracy assistance is

      AND

      may be high enough to compromise its impact.




03/31/12
  • 2AC India CP Round 5

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: UMW MM | Judge:

    • A2 India CP

      6. Only the US dodges this

      Daniel Solomon 8/21/2011 Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service National Director of STAND, a student political constituency organization focused on genocide and mass atrocities prevention and civilian protection policy sub-saharan africa and the intelligence community’s strategic threat assessment http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1466&op=yes

      I disagree with the concept that the Libyans

      AND

      the U.S. should seize it.

      5. Means Libya says no to the CP

      The Economist 1/16/12 Business in Libya Don't rip us off

       

      Yet more-entrenched obstacles to foreign investment

      AND

      guns are not what Libya needs or wants.




03/31/12
  • 2AC Jackson Vanik Round 5

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: UMW MM | Judge:

    • Politics

      No pass – GOP blocks

      Inside U.S. Trade - 03/30/2012 McDermott Blames Republicans For Holding Trade Bills Hostage This Year http://insidetrade.com/Inside-US-Trade/Inside-U.S.-Trade-03/30/2012/mcdermott-blames-republicans-for-holding-trade-bills-hostage-this-year/menu-id-172.html

       

      Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA

      AND

      he would benefit from it," he said.

      No pass – takes 4 months

      Inside U.S. Trade - 03/16/2012 Baucus Eyes Russia MFN Vote After Duma Ratifies WTO Accession

       

      He signaled that it was still early in

      AND

      out the right way to deal with it."

      A pro-Russia MFN lobbyist said it

      AND

      a potential Senate floor vote, he said.

      No compromise on Magnitsky now.

      Josh Rogin 3/29 Lugar’s endorsement pushes Magnitsky Act forward Foreign Policy http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/03/29/lugar_s_endorsement_pushes_magnitsky_act_forward

       

      According to several congressional aides, that request

      AND

      "We want to see where Magnitsky goes."

       

      Tax debate moving up now – will tank capital

       

      Politico 3/29 GOP may accelerate major tax votes - John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman - POLITICO.com

       

      The tax debate cometh — and sooner than

      AND

      GOP allies in corporate America and the affluent.

      Winners win

       

      Marshall and Prins 11, Bryan W., poli sci at Miami University, Ohio, Brandon C., poli sci at the University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3 (September) 2011

      Presidents rely heavily on Congress in converting their

      AND

      managing political capital at home (Fordham 2002).

      I

      Presidential leadership’s irrelevant

      Jacobs and King 10, University of Minnesota, Nuffield College, (Lawrence and Desmond, “Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency,”  Perspectives on Politics (2010), 8: 793-802) 

       But personality is not a solid foundation

      AND

      Presidential sales pitches go only so far.

      GOP loves the plan and it doesn’t spend money

      FoxNews 10-21, “Republicans Push for U.S. Role in Rebuilding Libya”, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/10/21/republicans-push-for-us-role-in-rebuilding-libya/

       

      With Muammar Qaddafi finally out of the picture

      AND

      need a lot of help in that direction.”

      Decentralization assistance is bipartisan – creates cooperation despite polarization.

      USAID 2009 DEMOCRATIC DECENTRALIZATION PROGRAMMING HANDBOOK Edwin Connerley, Ph.D. Senior Advisor-Decentralization and Local Governance USAID/Office of Democracy and Governance

       

      One of the more curious aspects of decentralization

      AND

      cut across traditional partisan lines and ideological cleavages.

      Alt cause -- Can’t overwhelm the litany of issues.

      -NATO Expansion       -Contest for Eurasia     -Georgia                       -Caucuses

      Bhadrakumar, ‘9 (Was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service7/11/ p. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/KG11Ag01.html

      Three, does the reset itself, therefore

      AND

      conflict in the Caucasus, and so on.




03/31/12
  • 1AR Jackson Vanik Round 5

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: UMW MM | Judge:

    • Politics

       

      Only 8% risk of their link.

      Matthew N Beckmann and Vimal Kumar 11, Associate Professor of Political Science at UC Irvine, econ prof at the Indian Institute of Tech, “Opportunism in Polarization”, Presidential Studies Quarterly; Sep 2011; 41, 3

      The final important piece in our theoretical model

      AND

      not matter, but can in close cases.

      The best quantitative research proves capital isn’t key.

      Walter and Mondale, 2010 [Lawrence R. Jacobs isWalter F. and Joan Mondale Professor and Chair of Politics and Governance, University of Minnesota (ljacobs@umn.edu). Desmond S. King is AndrewW. Mellon Professor of American Government and Professorial Fellow, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, “ Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency”,   Perspectives on Politics, September 2010, Vol 8./No 3]

      But personality is not a solid foundation for

      AND

      . Presidential sales pitches go only so far.

      Prefer– Journalists overstate the importance of political capital.

      Dickinson 9 professor of political science at Middlebury College (Matthew, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,”  May 26, 2009 Presidential Power http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/]

      What is of more interest to me,

      AND

      power that cannot be measured through legislative boxscores.

      Obama doesn’t use political capital like what your internals assume.

      Pages, 10/14/11 (Columnist – Tribune, http://www.newstimes.com/opinion/article/Obama-s-lonely-presidency-2219189.php)

      News media depict presidencies as long-running

      AND

      as lawmakers face reelection races of their own.

       




03/31/12

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