Contention One: Egyptian Economy
The Egyptian economy is in disarray—transition depends on resolving youth unemployment
Nasr 9/1 (Vali, Bloomberg, “Beyond Political Reform, Egypt Will Need Economic Restructuring: Vali Nasr” 9/1/11 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-02/beyond-political-reform-egypt-will-need-economic-restructuring-vali-nasr.html)
Six months after the fall of the Mubarak
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perhaps has been seen anywhere in the world.
It’s uniquely destabilizing— continued lack of job creation makes endless cycles of revolution.
Michael Schuman 8/22/11 Why the Arab Spring's success depends on jobs, not guns http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/08/22/why-the-arab-spring%e2%80%99s-success-depends-on-jobs-not-guns/#ixzz1Vn36NoHY
The roots of the Arab Spring are planted
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economic progress – through jobs, not guns.
Particularly, lack of middle market growth spurs radical groups—US action is critical.
Glenn Hubbard, 2/28/11 Dean of Columbia Business School, served in the Bush White House from February 2001 until March 2003 as the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers and the OECD’s Economic Policy Committee http://glennhubbard.net/commentary-and-op-eds/322-a-marshall-plan-for-the-middle-east.html
The recent and current upheavals in the Middle
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the aid system to the region as well.
The failures of Egyptian Economy spill over – It’s the litmus test
The Economist 6/23/11 Light, dark and muddle The shakiness of the economy could undermine progress towards democracy Jun 23rd 2011 http://www.economist.com/node/18864693
FOR almost a month after the fall of
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If it can prosper, others can too.
Current policies don’t create jobs—equity for small and medium businesses are the missing factor.
Whiton, Harrison &Szrom 2011 CHRISTIAN WHITON U.S. State Department official from 2003-2009, special advisor to the Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs,. KRISTOFER HARRISON senior managing director for a leading provider of macro-economic policy intelligence to hedge funds, investment banks and asset managers. CHARLIE SZROM Senior Analyst Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, Feb. 2011 FIXING FOREIGN AID: THE MISSING MIDDLE Expanding Middle Classes in Muslim-Majority Countries through Private Enterprise Development Hamilton Foundation http://www.hamiltonfoundation.com/Research/FixingForeignAssistance.pdf
Shifting the Focus to the Middle Class—
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where it is not present in large quantities.
We control the internal link to Middle East stability. Job growth is the critical variable in stabilizing transitions.
Keith Crane, Steven Simon, &Jeffrey Martini 2011Future Challenges for the Arab World The Implications of Demographic and Economic Trends Prepared for the United States Air Force Rand Corporation http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/technical_reports/2011/RAND_TR912.pdf
No other economic issue is deemed as important
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direction and extent of pressure for political change.
Economic collapse in Egypt exacerbates regional tensions.
Jon B. Alterman 6/15/11 director and senior fellow of the Middle East Program at CSIS “ THE EARTHQUAKE: HOW EGYPT EMERGES FROM UNCERTAINTY” http://csis.org/publication/earthquake-how-egypt-emerges-uncertainty
Mubarak’s sudden departure from the scene leaves a
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openness at a time of maximal economic disorder.
2 Scenarios – First, transitions
Economic growth is empirically the most important factor in sustaining democracy.
Charles Landow, 6/8/11 associate director of CFR’s Civil Society, Markets, and Democracy Initiative “The Economic Approach to Middle East Democracy” http://blogs.cfr.org/coleman/2011/06/08/the-economic-approach-to-middle-east-democracy/?cid=soc-Twitter-in-Middle_East-060911
As Egypt and Tunisia navigate the perilous path
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seems clear that economic development helps democracy endure.
Economic crisis in Egypt rolls back democracy—only SMEs solve.
Democracy Digest May 10, 2011 Egypt’s Jasmine what? http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/05/egypts-jasmine-what/
Even in the event of successful democratic transitions
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enterprises to act as engines of regional growth.
Egypt is the regional determinant—US investment is key
Kagan& Dunne 11(Robert, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe AND Michele, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Why Egypt Has to be the U.S. Priority in the Middle East, March 7, 2011, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0307_egypt_kagan.aspx, MCL)
With the horrific carnage in Libya, the
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will not be kind if we blow this opportunity
That triggers Middle East war
KUNA 9/5(Kuwait news Agency, “Specter Of War Looming In Mideast, Says Israeli General” 9/5/11 http://www.eurasiareview.com/specter-of-war-looming-in-mideast-says-israeli-general-05092011/)
Recent revolutions in the Arab world and the
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new Palestinian capabilities,” one of them said.
High risk of nuclear escalation—multiple reasons.
Russell ‘9 James A. Spring Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East managing editor of Strategic Insights, the quarterly ejournal published by the Center for Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) in Monterey, California. He also serves as senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, where he is teaching courses on Middle East security affairs, terrorism, and national security strategy. From 1988-2001, Mr. Russell held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affair\ s, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense. www.nps.edu/academbvics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/.../PP26_Russell_2009.pdf
Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined
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, with substantial risk for the entire world.
Second, radicalization
Egyptian economic collapse ensures radicalism.
Elliott Abrams 6/6/11 Egypt: Good News and Bad Posted on Monday, June 6, 2011 http://blogs.cfr.org/abrams/2011/06/06/egypt-good-news-and-bad/
A new poll of Egyptians suggests that the
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just how much Egyptians are committed to democracy.
Upward mobility and middle class necessary for moderating Islamism—without job growth fundamentalism is inevitable
Picht 11(James, teaches economics at the Louisiana Scholars' College, “After Mubarak: The Muslim Brotherhood” 2/11/11 http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/stimulus/2011/feb/11/after-mubarak-muslim-brotherhood/)
The unfolding revolution in Egypt is a struggle
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, a secular organization with an Islamic bent.
Moderation is possible—just a question of which kind of politic emerge—economic progress is the key determinant
Glain 11 (Stephan, The Nation, “Fault Lines in Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood” 8/24/11 http://www.thenation.com/article/162970/fault-lines-egypts-muslim-brotherhood)
I met with Habib in June. Until
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trying to wield both at the same time.
The impact is the victory of radical ideology.
Niall Ferguson 6/5/11 professor of history at Harvard University and a professor of business administration at Harvard Business School. He is also a senior research fellow at Jesus College, Oxford University, and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University The Revolution Blows Up Jun 5, 2011 1:00 AM EDT Egypt’s stock market is tanking and its rich are taking their money to Zurich. Will an economic plunge ruin the Arab Spring? http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/06/05/egypt-the-revolution-blows-up.html
The point of Keynes’s original tract was that
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late war on terror will fade into nothing.
That creates conditions for super-terrorism—causes extinction
Yonah Alexander, 2010 Director Maghreb & Sahel Terrorism: Addressing the Rising Threat from al-Qaeda & other Terrorists in North & West/Central Africa International Center for Terrorism Studies at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies http://www.potomacinstitute.org/attachments/524_Maghreb%20Terrorism%20report.pdf
Perpetrators and Motivations Current and future perpetrators include
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which they could forever alter our planet’s existence.
Independently, Egyptian radicalism triggers Israel-Egypt war.
Brady 8/19 (Kyle, Policymic, “A Dangerous Time For Egypt and Israel” 8/19/11 http://www.policymic.com/articles/a-dangerous-time-for-egypt-and-israel)
Egypt and Israel have never been friendly neighbors
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two is not only unnecessary, but undesirable.
That goes nuclear—causes extinction.
Bruce P. Chadwick, 7/6/11 PhD, CFA, is principal at Chadwick Global Research and Consulting, an independent consulting firm specializing in macro strategy, including quantitative, emerging market, and SRI research. Worldview: Summer Perspectives on the Arab Spring New York Society of Security Analysts http://post.nyssa.org/nyssa-news/2011/07/summer-perspectives-on-the-arab-spring.html
THE EGYPTIAN OUTCOME IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT Westerners often
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on a hair-trigger will be considerable.
Plan: The United States federal government should implement Egyptian-American Enterprise Fund Act.
Contention Two: Solvency
Enterprise Funds are the only empirically successful mechanism to promote sustainable Middle Market growth—Microfinance fails
Whiton, Harrison &Szrom 2011 CHRISTIAN WHITON U.S. State Department official from 2003-2009, special advisor to the Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs,. KRISTOFER HARRISON senior managing director for a leading provider of macro-economic policy intelligence to hedge funds, investment banks and asset managers. CHARLIE SZROM Senior Analyst Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, Feb. 2011 FIXING FOREIGN AID: THE MISSING MIDDLE Expanding Middle Classes in Muslim-Majority Countries through Private Enterprise Development Hamilton Foundation http://www.hamiltonfoundation.com/Research/FixingForeignAssistance.pdf
Yet, the U.S. government
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of human and financial capital in Eastern Europe.
And, the plan overcomes other economic obstacles - Enterprise funds create private sector growth which pushes overall improvements.
Matthew Lieber 2006 doctoral candidate in Political Science at Brown University; his work focuses on U .S . economic relations with Latin America . He has also worked as an associate dean of a private Mexican university and as a member of the U .S . Treasury Department’s legislative affairs staff Enterprise Funds Foreign Aid and Private Sector Development Watson Institute http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/0F940A9115C596D0C125716B00761178-watsoninst-gen-may06.pdf
Assessing the “Catalytic Effect” on the
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at www .watsoninstitute .org/foreignaid .
Only a change in US aid to Egypt can solve – the plan is the necessary first step.
Nasr 9/1 (Vail, Bloomberg, “Beyond Political Reform, Egypt Will Need Economic Restructuring: Vali Nasr” 9/1/11 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-02/beyond-political-reform-egypt-will-need-economic-restructuring-vali-nasr.html)
Radical Change That would require radical change.
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that is struggling to become a genuine democracy.
US entrepreneurial partnerships are the most desirable for Muslim business—they’ll say yes.
Younis and Younis 2011 August “The Role of Entrepreneurship and Job Creation in U.S.-Muslim Relations” Convened and Authored by: Ahmed Younis Mohamed Younis Senior Practice Consultant at Gallup and a Senior Analyst at the Gallup Center for Muslim Studies and the Abu Dhabi Gallup Center. Senior Analyst at the Gallup Center for Muslim Studies and a Senior Practice Consultant at Gallup. He is a primary author of the Silatech Index report—an analysis of the public opinion of young Arabs—and serves as a Senior Analyst at the Abu Dhabi Gallup Center. Saban Center at Brookings.
The uprisings across the Arab world present U
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States the respect sought by many Muslims.24
Only the American enterprise fund model solves—critical to US leadership in the Arab world.
Whiton, Harrison &Szrom 2011 CHRISTIAN WHITON U.S. State Department official from 2003-2009, special advisor to the Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs,. KRISTOFER HARRISON senior managing director for a leading provider of macro-economic policy intelligence to hedge funds, investment banks and asset managers. CHARLIE SZROM Senior Analyst Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, Feb. 2011 FIXING FOREIGN AID: THE MISSING MIDDLE Expanding Middle Classes in Muslim-Majority Countries through Private Enterprise Development Hamilton Foundation http://www.hamiltonfoundation.com/Research/FixingForeignAssistance.pdf
Recent history provides a solution. Beginning after
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strategic calculus the U.S. faces.
