UNI Disclosure

• Tournament: UNI | Round: 1 | Opponent: Minnesota PS | Judge: Archer, Max
  
  

• 1AC Syria

  Inherency

  Currently the Obama administration refuses to support Syrian opposition groups based on misconceptions that Assad is reforming

  Puder, Joesph, 8/17/11, Front Page Magazine writer, “Snubbing the Real Syrian Democratic Movement”

  Yahoo News reported on August 2, 2011 

  AND 

  it with $111 million for fiscal 2012.  

  Assad will not start a regime-led transition to democracy and the regime won’t disintegrate on its own—action now is key

  Michael S. Doran and Salman Shaikh 2011 June 22 Michael S. Doran is senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution. Salman Shaikh is director of the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy. Getting Serious in Syria http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1001 

  The Syrian status quo, whatever is left 

  AND 

  cling to power to the bitter end.

  The Syrian opposition groups currently are fragmented – this prevents any hope of regime change

  Moubayed 8/30/11, Sami, Gulf News analyst, “The 75-year-old smoker who refuses to quit”, http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/the-75-year-old-smoker-who-refuses-to-quit-1.858797

  If Syria wants to survive, it needs 

  AND 

  so many arrests during the past two months.

  And sanctions won’t work – high class businessmen and Syrians still remain loyal to Assad

  Reuters 8/29/11, “Analysis: EU oil jolt may not be enough to rock Assad”, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/29/us-syria-economy-idUSTRE77S1W420110829

  - Oil sanctions which the European Union is 

  AND 

  substantial foreign exchange reserves to fall back on.

   

  Plantext 

  The United States federal government should provide democracy assistance that is requested by the Syrian National Council of opposition groups. 

  Currently the US thinks Turkey will be able to exercise soft power to persuade him to step down

  Badran, Tony, 8/17/11, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “The U.S. Can’t Trust Turkey”

  U.S. President Barack Obama seems 

  AND 

  . And, therefore, Obama has miscalculated. 

  And Turkey can’t do anything to Syria – they’ve proven they don’t have the soft power to change their mind so Assad will stay in power

  Kardas, Saban, 6/7/11, Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume 8 Issue 109, “Syrian Opposition Meets In Turkey: No Change In Turkish Policy”

  Amidst the ongoing violence in Syria, opposition 

  AND 

  perhaps reflecting their appreciation of Turkey’s delicate position.

  Turkey can’t overthrow the regime change right now – the only option to overthrow Assad is for the United States to step and taking a hardline stance in order to balance ME hegemony

  Badran, Tony, 8/17/11, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “The U.S. Can’t Trust Turkey”

  Turkey was never powerful enough to implement Obama's 

  AND 

  . That role remains the United States' alone.

  And other international agents agree the US is the ONLY actor who can put pressure on the regime

  Kessler 8/18/11, Oren,  Jpost journalist, “Turkey: Syrian situation may become Libya-style civil war”, http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=234226

  Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan compared the 

  AND 

  not Asia, not the UN Security Council.

  Action has 2 impacts, first being leadership

  This is key to maintaining soft power – the US has to create action against Syria in order to foster cooperation against bad government in the ME – this is turn restores credibility

  Schake, Kori, 8/19/11, “The kind of world Secretary Clinton wants to see”, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/19/the_kind_of_world_secretary_clinton_wants_to_see

  America's Secretary of State gave a stunning interview 

  AND 

  power and the Obama administration's approach are working?

  Mid East cred is the litmus test for the future of US leadership.

  Phillips, '10 (Writer and analyst of Middle Eastern Affairs, 5-31, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/31/us-hegemony-middle-east-ending)

  While the Bush era saw the US hegemonic 

  AND 

  hegemony in the Middle East could be ending.

  American power stops conflict in every region, keeps trade moving, stops terrorists, and prolif – hegemony is inevitable the question is whether or not other nations let America use it effectively

  Kagan 11 contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, Robert, “The Price of Power”, 1-24, Vol. 16, No. 18, http://www.weeklystandard.com/print/articles/price-power_533696.html,

  Today the international situation is also one of 

  AND 

  system that American power has built and defended. 

  Second is Saudi Relations

  First, despite all the Arab Spring disagreements, US-Saudi relations remain high AS LONG AS they share mutual interests for the region

  Boucek 6/21/11, Christopher, “U.S.- Saudi Relations in the Shadow of the Arab Spring?”, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/06/21/u.s.-saudi-relations-in-shadow-of-arab-spring/1il#decline

  We have seen the emergence of greater tensions 

  AND 

  advance mutual interests, not just American interests.

  And to dispose of the Turkey strategy scares the Saudis over fears of not containing Iran – the US needs to switch and lead on Syria in order to gain regional support

  Doran 9/6/11, Michael, Roger Hertog Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, “The Nexus and the Olive Tree”, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0823_middle_east_doran.aspx

  With the call for Assad's ouster, Obama 

  AND 

  strategy, precisely when it is needed most.

  US leverage with Saudi Arabia is key to preventing oil shocks.

  Larson 2k2

  Larson, Under Secretary for Economic, Business, and Agricultural Affairs, April 22 2k2

  http://www.state.gov/e/rls/rm/2002/9623.htm

  The relationship between the United States and Saudi 

  AND 

  shown, disruptions can occur in any region.

  Major oil shocks would plunge the world into nuclear war. 

  Lauria ‘8 (Joe - New York-based investigative journalist. A freelance member of the Sunday Times of London Insight team, he has also worked on investigations for the Boston Globe and Bloomberg News., The Huffington Post, April 14, “The Coming War with Iran: It’s About the Oil, Stupid,” http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2008/04/14/8282/)

  The Saudis would not mind seeing the Iranian 

  AND 

  project. It’s about the oil, stupid.

  Syrian Stability

  Opposition groups fragmented now – creating communication through different types of opposition groups is key to stop the refugee crisis and sectarian violence 

  Allen 9/2/11, Michael,  Editor of Democracy Digest, “Can Syria’s Opposition Unite?”, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/09/can-syrias-opposition-unite/

  Many Syrian-based activists are wary of 

  AND 

  Syria and Iraq, it is already happening.”

  Assad regime is pushing sectarian conflicts as a way of control – this spillovers throughout the Middle East and causes Syrian and regional instabiliy 

  Nasr, 8/27/11, Vali, NY Times journalist, “If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly”, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

  Syria today stands at the edge of such 

  AND 

  pressure the Assad government not to inflame sectarian tensions

  Syrian instability generates Israel-Syria war that the whole region gets drawn into, Iran proxy war the use of CBW weapons, and Israeli strikes
  Ceren, Omri, 8/1/11, Commentary Magazine, “Just How Bad Could a Syrian
   Collapse Get?

  But the continued stability of the Syrian regime 

  AND 

  productive that strategy may turn out to be.

  There is ZERO benefit to a Mid East war -- it escalates, jacks the global economy, won't decrease oil use, and won't help arms sales or influence for anyone.

  James Forest, Director of Terrorism Studies at US Military Academy and the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, Sep/Oct, '7 (The Futurist, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_go2133/is_200709/ai_n32237334/)

  A regional war in the Middle East would 

  AND 

  from a regional war in the Middle East.

  And, Bioweapons use causes extinction – highly probable.

  Ochs, ‘2 Richard J Ochs, 6-9-2002, has published articles in the Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Chronicle, Science magazine and is past president of the Aberdeen Proving Ground Superfund Citizens Coalition, member of the Depleted Uranium Task force of the Military Toxics Project and a member of the Chemical Weapons Working Group, “Biological Weapons Must Be Abolished Immediately,” p http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html

  Of all the weapons of mass destruction, 

  AND 

  such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.

  Israel strikes causes economic collapse, great power draw in, and extinction

  Reuveny ‘10 (Rafael Reuveny is a professor in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University. “Israel and Iran: a unilateral strike could trigger World War III” The Nation McClatchy-Tribune Information Services August 6, 2010)

  A unilateral Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities 

  AND 

  Israeli strike could ultimately spark World War III.

  Turkey won’t check Syria but supporting the democratic citizens avoid the collapse of the Syrian state – plan solves 

  Kahwaji, Riad, 7/18/11, Eurasia Review journalist, “Assessing Turkey’s Stance On Syria”

  Official sources in Qatar believe the Assad regime 

  AND 

  the regime’s brutality, and it can win.

  U.S. support for democratization in Syria is necessary to prevent suppression of the uprising or all out civil war

  John Hannah 5-11-11 Obama and Syria: Courting Disaster http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/05/11/obama_and_syria_courting_disaster

  Instead, the administration needs quickly to move 

  AND 

  very raison d'etre is ensuring the regime's survival. 

  Solvency

  And the U.S. is uniquely key – Obama’s background makes him in a position of power to promote democracy to the Arab Spring that other agents can’t access – letting them decide what democracy assistance they want is the only thing that solves 

  Gerecht 9/1/11, a former CIA officer, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the author of “The Wave: Man, God, and the Ballot Box in the Middle East.”

  http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-american liberator/2011/09/01/gIQA3e5HvJ_story.html

  Libya was not a robust showing of liberal

  AND 

  It may do the same for Barack Obama. 

  National council unification spurs the business communities to regime change – they are specifically key to bringing down the regime due to geographical location, high income, and larger number against pro Assad business supporters 

  Slim, 8/5/11, Randa, “Where’s Syria’s business community”, Foreign Policy Magazine, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/05/wheres_syrias_business_community

  The decision by the U.S. 

  AND 

  of economic system they want to see established.

  Unifying and creating good governance and stability key – any other action will fail 

  Harling, 8/30/11, Peter, Foreign Policy Magazine, “How not to prolong the Syrian agony”, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/30/how_not_to_prolong_the_syrian_agony

  The second mistake to be avoided is for 

  AND 

  the protest movement's coattails but in complementing it.  

  The international community is key to help sustain basic governance and economic recovery – now’s key based on military support – solves religious violence

  Democracy Digest, 8/30/11, “Libya’s Lessons for Syrian Opposition?”, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/08/libyan-lessons-for-syria%E2%80%99s-opposition/

  With Syrian army defections reportedly on the rise 

  AND 

  basic governance, and reviving the economy.” .

  Unified approach solves the transition- presents an alternative to the regime through lack of discrimination based on sectarian violence

  Hassan, 8/28/11, Hassan, The National, “Syria's opposition has failed to offer a viable alternative”, http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/syrias-opposition-has-failed-to-offer-a-viable-alternative?pageCount=2

  The regime has also been careful not to 

  AND 

  Mr Al Assad will simply prolong his regime.

  And successful coalition garners international support – gets regional leaders on board to embrace new government

  Souaiaia 8/29/11, Ahmed, teaches a variety of courses in College of Law, International Programs, and Religious Studies at the University of Iowa, “Syria’s opposition groups establish a national transition council”, http://www.examiner.com/international-affairs-in-national/syria-s-opposition-groups-establish-a-national-transition-council

  If the protesters embrace one of the new 

  AND 

  too, will certainly meet the same fate.

  Alternative government is the biggest threat to Assad – he will fall with a unified opposition – Libya proves

  National Council 8/24/11, Syria opposition must learn from Libya's council, http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/editorial/syria-opposition-must-learn-from-libyas-council

  The one lesson that Syrians must learn from 

  AND 

  . Only then will his regime surely crumble.

  And international community should set up a political alternative that protects minorities – key to Assad collapse

  Al Toraifi 8/12/11, Adel, Al Arabiya, “Adel Al Toraifi: Syria on the road of chaos”, http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2011/08/12/161931.html

  If the international community is concerned about Syria 

  AND 

  [Baathist] party and sectarian [elements].

  And a national council will be able to provide a smooth transition – no terrorist coup or transition war – 80% of the opposition are on board

  EuroNews, 8/24/11, “Syrian opposition established National Council”, http://www.euronews.net/2011/08/24/syrian-opposition-established-national-council/

  Syrian opposition is very close to have its 

  AND 

  the end in process of establishing a leadership.”

  
  
• 
  
  

Kentucky Plan Text

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• The United States federal government should provide democratic institution building to the Syrian National Council of opposition groups. 

  
  
• 
  
  

Texas Swing Syria 1AC

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Inherency

  Syrian institution building isn’t happening because of a lack of western aid– key to stability – this is the only thing that solves violence 

  Davis 9/27/11, Brian, served in the Canadian Foreign Service for 37 years, including postings at 8 missions abroad and in a range of senior assignments in Ottawa. Partnership for a Secure America, “SYRIA – What do we do now?”, http://blog.psaonline.org/2011/09/27/syria-what-do-we-do-now-by-brian-j-davis/

  When the opposition groups achieve greater stability and 

  AND 

  developing appropriate policies towards Syria at this time.

  And sanctions won’t work –high oil prices and economy low now

  Reuters 8/29/11, “Analysis: EU oil jolt may not be enough to rock Assad”, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/29/us-syria-economy-idUSTRE77S1W420110829

  - Oil sanctions which the European Union is 

  AND 

  substantial foreign exchange reserves to fall back on.

  Plantext

  The United States federal government should provide rule of law assistance for the purpose of democratic transition to the Syrian National Council of opposition groups.

  Civil War

  Violence is inevitable under the regime – only a democratic transition ensures stability to contain civil war

  Seale 8-31-11. Patrick 

  AND 

  online.com/english/?id=47866

  If the protests in Syria become more threatening 

  AND 

  by democratic means rather than by civil war.

  Iran will influence the region now – this ensures sectarian conflict and Iranian heg

  Zirulnick ‘11 Ariel, Christian Science Monitor 

  AND 

  s-Assad-put-down-protests

  Iran is providing Syria with gear to disperse 

  AND 

  the Shiite-Sunni tensions in the region.

  Iranian heg causes nuclear war.

  Ben-Meir ‘7(Alon Ben

  AND 

  )

  Feeling emboldened and unrestrained, Tehran may, 

  AND 

  severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.

  And continued sectarian conflict spills over to Iraq and disrupts the entire Arab Spring

  Nasr, 8/27/11, 

  AND 

  html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

  Syria today stands at the edge of such 

  AND 

  pressure the Assad government not to inflame sectarian tensions

  Iraqi instability draws in global powers – causes WWIII.

  Corsi '7 (Jerome, Published Author & 

  AND 

  )

  If a broader war breaks out in Iraq

  AND 

  much as World Wars I and II began.

  And US inaction creates a Saudi-Iran proxy war for influence in Syria and collapses Saudi relations – they view it as top priority to contain Iran 

  Doran 9/6/11, Michael, Roger Hertog Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, “The Nexus and the Olive Tree”, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0823_middle_east_doran.aspx

  With the call for Assad's ouster, Obama 

  AND 

  strategy, precisely when it is needed most.

  Saudi/Iran war easily escalates—miscalc is likely—extinction 

  Rachel Bronson3/30/2011 (Vice 

  AND 

  -strategic-blunder-analysis-20032011/)

  With their presence in Bahrain now so-

  AND 

  if Iran does not send overt military assistance. 

  And collapse of US Saudi relations causes Saudi prolif and China fill in.

  Takeyh 11 — PhD from Oxford, Adjunct 

  AND 

  .html?_r=2, WEA)

   For nearly 60 years, Saudi Arabia 

  AND 

  to be seriously contemplated in the House of Saud

  Causes wildfire regional prolif, nuclear war and extinction.

  Edelman et al11 – *Distinguished Fellow at 

  AND 

  )

  There is, however, at least one 

  AND 

  a new Great Game, with unpredictable consequences.

  That also causes US-Sino war

  Gal Luft 2006 (Executive director of the 

  AND 

  ) 

  Optimists claim that the world oil market will 

  AND 

  a position to halt China's slide into total dependency

  Extinction.

  Cheong 6/25/2000 (Lexis, Strait Times) 

  The high-intensity scenario postulates a cross

  AND 

  , for China puts sovereignty above everything else.

  And Iran will exploit the civil war as means for Hezbollah to attack Israel

  Meir 9/2/11, Javedanfar, Middle East Analyst, September 2, 2011, 

  Masters in International Relations and Strategic Studies from 

  AND 

  -eyes-syrian-civil-war/

  Clearly, chaos in Syria could have region

  AND 

  in an attempt to undermine its security further.

  And Hezbollah attacks prompt Israel strikes 

  Russell, 09– Editor of Strategic Insights

  AND 

  The involvement of non-state actorsas part 

  AND 

  or strategic ambiguous as its 2006 operations inLebanon.

  Israel strikes causes oil shocks, great power draw in, and extinction

  Reuveny ‘10 (Rafael Reuveny is a 

  AND 

  -Tribune Information Services August 6, 2010)

  A unilateralIsraeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilitieswould likelyhavedire 

  AND 

  Israeli strike could ultimately spark World War III.

  Major oil shocks would plunge the world into nuclear war. 

  Lauria ‘8 (Joe - New York

  AND 

  )

  The Saudis would not mind seeing the Iranian 

  AND 

  project. It’s about the oil, stupid.

  ONLY American views of strategic interest in Syria can check Iran influence and American credibility in the Middle East 

  Badran 10/6/11, Tony

  AND 

  319001&MID=0&PID=0

  With the Syrian revolution on the verge of 

  AND 

  However, that is simply not an option.

  Leadership

  Currently the US has squandered any sort of action against Assad because they think Turkey will be able to exercise soft power to persuade him to either reform or step down

  Badran, Tony, 8/17/11, research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “The U.S. Can’t Trust Turkey”

  U.S. President Barack Obama seems 

  AND 

  . And, therefore, Obama has miscalculated.

  And Turkey can’t do anything to Syria – they’ve proven they don’t have the soft power to change their mind so Assad will stay in power

  Kardas, Saban, 6/7/

  AND 

  In Turkey: No Change In Turkish Policy”

  Amidst the ongoing violence in Syria, opposition 

  AND 

  perhaps reflecting their appreciation of Turkey’s delicate position.

  the US is the ONLY actor who can put pressure on the regime – international agents waiting for their stance 

  Kessler 8/18/11, Oren

  AND 

  MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=234226

  Turkey’s Prime MinisterRecepTayyipErdogancompared the situation to that in 

  AND 

  not Asia, not the UN Security Council.

  This is key to maintaining soft power – the US has to create action against Syria in order to foster cooperation against bad government in the ME which restores credibility

  Schake, Kori, 8/19/

  AND 

  secretary_clinton_wants_to_see

  America's Secretary of State gave a stunning interview 

  AND 

  power and the Obama administration's approach are working?

  Obama’s lack of action on Syria is eroding US leadership 

  Pletka and Gottlieb 10/19/11

  AND 

  -is-true-obama-doctrine/

  After months of mixed messages, President Barack 

  AND 

  antiseptic remote control alternative to actual American leadership.

  Mid East cred is the litmus test for the future of US leadership.

  Phillips, '10 (Writer and analyst of 

  AND 

  -hegemony-middle-east-ending)

  While the Bush era saw the US hegemonic 

  AND 

  hegemony in the Middle East could be ending.

  Cred is essential for sustainable global leadership.

  Armitage& Nye, ’07 (Richard L

  AND 

  )

  The world is dissatisfied with American leadership. 

  AND 

  build the framework to tackle tough global challenges.

  American power stops conflict in every region, keeps trade moving, stops terrorists, and prolif – hegemony is inevitable the question is whether or not other nations let America use it effectively

  Kagan 11contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and 

  AND 

  /price-power_533696.html,

  Today the international situation is also one of 

  AND 

  system that American power has built and defended. 

  Solvency

  US support will cause a peaceful transition – Obama backing and technical support are key

  Tabler&Karlin, ’11 (Washington Institute 

  AND 

  )

  As the United States works to push Assad 

  AND 

  of the United States' most problematic regional adversaries. 

  Removing Assad from power isn’t enough – rule of law key to democratic transition 

  Solomon 12/6/11, Jay

  AND 

  wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204083204577082864170657648.html

  U.S. and European officials have 

  AND 

  citizens regardless of sect or ethnicity or gender.

  SNC Rule of law building key to transition which checks civil war and  SNC aligns with allies and breaks Iran/Hezbollah axis post plan

  Reuters 6/16/11, 'Syria 

  AND 

  International/Article.aspx?id=248361

  Some Syrians fear a collapse of Assad's rule 

  AND 

  Iran and Sunni Arab states like Saudi Arabia.

  And transition will be friendly – the US specifically needs to provide support rhetorically to secure interests

  Weiss, ’11 (Director of communications at 

  AND 

  )

  There are plenty of geopolitical justifications on offer 

  AND 

  searching for friends who might someday become allies.

  International action key to legitimize the SNC fast enough to avoid civil war

  Araabi, Samer, 10/18/

  AND 

  net/news.asp?idnews=105508

  The quest for legitimacy  The council was formed 

  AND 

  buffer between the Syrian forces and the opposition.

  The US needs to recognize the Syrian National Council to avoid civil war 

  Shaikh, Salman, 10/12/

  AND 

  a-syrian-civil-war.html

  The United States should also recognize theSyrian National 

  AND 

  act quickly, Syria will descend into chaos.

  
  
• 
  
  

Augustana 1AC

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Plan

  The United States federal government should provide political party and governance assistance to the Syrian National Council of opposition groups for the purpose of democratic transition. 

  Adv 1: Cred

  America’s leadership in the region is eroding day by day with Syria

  Rubin 1/3/12, Jennifer, “Mass Murder in Syria, inaction by Obama”, Washington Post author, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/mass-murder-in-syria-inaction-by-obama/2012/01/03/gIQAD6i8XP_blog.html

  The Syrian revolution is a motherless child. 

  AND 

  standing in the region erodes day by day.

  Rhetorical commitments don’t solve – action by the US now is key 

  Gordon 8-20-11 J.D. is a communications consultant to several Washington-D.C. think tanks and a retired Navy Commander who served as a Pentagon spokesman in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2005-2009. Libya, Syria Show Obama in Way Over His Head Available Online @ http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/08/20/libya-syria-show-obama-in-way-over-his-head/#ixzz1Vgk2QcQB

  With Syria, Mr. Obama finally called 

  AND 

  regimes to build up their own military arsenals.

  And ceding heg to regional powers in the Middle East kills leadership

  Phillips, '10 (Writer and analyst of Middle Eastern Affairs, 5-31, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/31/us-hegemony-middle-east-ending)

  While the Bush era saw the US hegemonic 

  AND 

  hegemony in the Middle East could be ending.

  Cred is essential for sustainable global leadership as a form of soft power

  Armitage& Nye, ’07 (Richard L., Deputy Secretary of State from 2001 to 2005 and Joseph S., former assistant secretary of defense, teaches political science at Harvard, they co-chaired the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Commission on Smart Power, The Tennessean, “Time for Smart Power”, tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071216/NEWS08/712160370/1025/NEWS)

  The world is dissatisfied with American leadership. 

  AND 

  build the framework to tackle tough global challenges.

  Specifically, US inaction cedes power to Iran to influence Syrian government policies

  Doran, 12-13-11 [Michael, Roger Hertog Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy -- The Brookings Institution, “United States Policy in Syria: Masterful Inaction?” http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1213_syria_doran.aspx]

  If so, then why doesn’t President Obama 

  AND 

  the game, it is unlikely to win.

  Syria key to Iranian influence and leadership in the Middle East 

  Ghitis 11, Frida, World Politics Review, “Mideast Powers Jockey Leadership Amid Syrian Turmoil”, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9748/world-citizen-mideast-powers-jockey-for-leadership-amid-syrian-turmoil

  Of all the uprisings underway in the Middle 

  AND 

  and helping Iran project power beyond its borders. 

  Iranian heg causes nuclear war.

  Ben-Meir ‘7(Alon Ben-Meir professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, Realpolitik: Ending Iran’s defiance, 2007http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2007/02/06/Realpolitik-Ending-Irans-defiance/UPI-69491170778058/)

  Feeling emboldened and unrestrained, Tehran may, 

  AND 

  severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.

  Inability to check back Iranian influence in the Middle-East will shatter global power projection
  Etzioni ’11. Amatai Etzioni is a Professor of Political Science at George Washington University. “The

  Coming Test of US Credibility.” Military Review April 2011. Available Online @ <http://icps.gwu.edu/files/
   2011/03/credibility.pdf>
  

  As of the beginning of 2011, these 

  AND 

  responsibilities and live up to its commitments overseas.

  American power stops conflict in every region, keeps trade moving, stops terrorists, and prolif – hegemony is inevitable the question is whether or not other nations let America use it effectively

  Kagan 11contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, Robert, “The Price of Power”, 1-24, Vol. 16, No. 18, http://www.weeklystandard.com/print/articles/price-power_533696.html,

  Today the international situation is also one of 

  AND 

  system that American power has built and defended. 

  Only American frontal leadership in Syria can check Iran influence and American credibility in the Middle East 

  Badran 10/6/11, Tony, Now Lebanon, “Obama abandoning interest in Syria”, http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=319001&MID=0&PID=0

  With the Syrian revolution on the verge of 

  AND 

  However, that is simply not an option.

  Civil War Adv

  Assad’s regime will fall as Syria’s crisis falls deeper

  Black 1/16/12, Ian, the Guardian reporter, “Syria: beyond the wall of fear, a state in slow-motion collapse”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/16/syria-collapse-damascus-change?newsfeed=true

  Another sign of Syria's deepening crisis is that 

  AND 

  we fear what is it going to cost."

  While Assad’s regime may collapse inaction by the US causes a civil war that engulfs the entire region

  Alhomayed, 1/20/12, Tariq, ditor-in-Chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, “The cost of the fall of al-Assad”, http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2012/01/20/189386.html

  There are many expectations that the al-

  AND 

  , or even the Europeans and the Americans.

  And high risk of escalation – Assad will continue to promote sectarian violence that engulfs the entire region 

  Nasr, 8/27/11, Vali, NY Times journalist, “If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly”, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

  Syria today stands at the edge of such 

  AND 

  pressure the Assad government not to inflame sectarian tensions

  This has two impacts, 

  First - no assistance strategy means Obama will militarily intervene within Syria 

  Dreyfuss 8-31-11 – contributing editor for The Nation, profiled as a leading investigative journalist by the Columbia Journalism Review (Robert, “Model Behavior? Libyan Ideas in Syria,” http://www.npr.org/2011/08/31/140084052/the-nation-model-behavior-libyan-ideas-in-syria)

  Meanwhile, the Washington Post reports that Syrian 

  AND 

  Syrians, or Iranians, to be massacred.

  And military intervention in Syria draws in great powers –causes extinction 

  Lehmann 12/15

  Dr. Christof Lehmann, psychologist, political advisor and consultant, 12/15/2011 (http://pressenza.com/npermalink/the-manufacturing-of-the-war-in-syria)

  A military attack on Syria would invariable lead 

  AND 

  world needs to stand with Syria and Peace.

  Second is Assad will lashout against Israel towards his regime collapsing internally – causes Israel strikes and bioweapons use
  Ceren, Omri, 8/1/11, Commentary Magazine, “Just How Bad Could a Syrian
   Collapse Get?

  But the continued stability of the Syrian regime 

  AND 

  productive that strategy may turn out to be.

  Israel strikes causes economic collapse, great power draw in, and extinction

  Reuveny ‘10 (Rafael Reuveny is a professor in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University. “Israel and Iran: a unilateral strike could trigger World War III” The Nation McClatchy-Tribune Information Services August 6, 2010)

  A unilateralIsraeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilitieswould likelyhavedire 

  AND 

  Israeli strike could ultimately spark World War III.

  And, Bioweapons use causes extinction – highly probable.

  Ochs, ‘2 Richard J Ochs, 6-9-2002, has published articles in the Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Chronicle, Science magazine and is past president of the Aberdeen Proving Ground Superfund Citizens Coalition, member of the Depleted Uranium Task force of the Military Toxics Project and a member of the Chemical Weapons Working Group, “Biological Weapons Must Be Abolished Immediately,” p http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html

  Of all the weapons of mass destruction, 

  AND 

  such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.

  Solvency 

  US development of democratic institutions solves – they’re key to solve sectarian conflict and provide Syria with civil society to unify

  Al-Assad 8/10 

  Ribal Al-Assad is Director of the Organization for Democracy and Freedom in Syria. “The struggle for Syria”. August 10, 2011. CNN’s Global Public Square Blog. http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/10/the-struggle-for-syria/

  As the violence in Syria mounts, the 

  AND 

  be a force for stability throughout the region.

  And US action is a signifier for other countries to act in Syria – US action is key to start pressure on the regime

  Kessler 8/18/11, Oren,  Jpost journalist, “Turkey: Syrian situation may become Libya-style civil war”, http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=234226

  Turkey’s Prime MinisterRecepTayyipErdogancompared the situation to that in 

  AND 

  not Asia, not the UN Security Council.

  US action key to fracture Assad’s support base causing him to go peacefully 

  Brodsky, Matthew, 10/4/11, Guadrian author, “US must ratchet pressure on Assad”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/nov/04/us-must-ratchet-up-pressure-syria

  With Nato calling off military operations in Libya

  AND 

  ", and then wait to see what happens. 

  Plan generates a viable political alternative to Assad-that’s key. 

  The National 2011 (“Syria opposition must learn from Libya&#38;#39;s council”, 8-24, http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/editorial/syria-opposition-must-learn-from-libyas-council) 

  In Syria, more than five months after 

  AND 

  . Only then will his regime surely crumble.

  
  
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