Unique Internal link- Jackson Vanik repeal will pass now but Obama’s leadership and capital are key.

Wall Street Journal 2/29/12 White House Pushes for Russia Trade Agreement

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203753704577254192095999600.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Russian officials have said the country won't honor

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that this is not a vote for Russia."

Funding unpopular and being blocked now

Washington Post 2/28/12 State

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02/28/gIQAXzHWgR_story.html

Clinton also testified before the Senate Appropriations subcommittee

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and Libya, and elsewhere in the region.

Political capital is key to pass PNTR.

Graham Allison and Robert D. Blackwill October 2011 Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Harvard University Russia and U.S. National Interests: Why Should Americans Care? A Report of the Task Force on Russia and U.S. National Interest Graham Allison Director of Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Assistant Secretary of Defense in the first Clinton Administration Robert D. Blackwill is the Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. Deputy national security adviser for strategic planning under President George W. Bush, presidential envoy to Iraq and was the administration’s coordinator for U.S. policies regarding Afghanistan and Iran.

Finally, given the disparities between U.

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a controversial topic like American policy toward Russia.

PNTR critical to avert economic collapse

Griswold & Petersen Feb. 2012 Daniel Griswold is director of the Herbert A. Steifel Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute. Douglas Petersen is a former research assistant at the center. Russia Joins the WTO Why this is good for the United States IMPACT ANALYSIS Issues Impacting Global Business January-February 2012 A Publication of Manzella Trade Communications www.businessworldwidetv.com/_downloads/impact_analysis.pdf

As a condition of membership in the WTO

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to the sputtering U.S. economy.

( ) Economic decline causes nuclear war.

Mead 9 (Walter Russell, Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy – Council on Foreign Relations, The New Republic, 2-4)

For billions of people in nuclear-armed

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track, we may still have to fight.

Jackson Vanik is the Canary in the Coal mine for Relations – All cooperation and outstanding issues can be solved by repeal.

Nikolas K. Gvosdev 2/10/12 “ Resetting the U.S.-Russia Reset” is the former editor of the National Interest, and a frequent foreign policy commentator in both the print and broadcast media. He is currently on the faculty of the U.S. Naval War College. http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/11441/the-realist-prism-resetting-the-u-s-russia-reset

After a period of healthier ties following the

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blow to the whole idea of the reset.

US-Russian relations are critical for global security, preventing proliferation, sustaining US leadership and averting nuclear war.

Allison and Blackwill 10-30-11 Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School, Robert D. Blackwill, International Council Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs "10 Reasons Why Russia Still Matters"http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/21469/10_reasons_why_russia_still_matters.html

That central point is that Russia matters a

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or failure, in advancing our national interests.

The impact is extinction

Bostrom 2 (Nick, Dir. Future of Humanity Institute and Prof. Philosophy – Oxford U., Journal of Evolution and Technology, “Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards”, 9, March, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html)

The first manmade existential risk was the inaugural

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that we will encounter in the 21st century.

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3/4/12

1NC- Turkey CP

The United States Federal Government should ask the Republic of Turkey to provide substantial expert advice to mediate a high level dialogue between the government of Bahrain and relevant opposition parties for the purpose of eliciting tangible concessions for genuine democratic reform in Bahrain, offering necessary informal guidance to support Turkey’s efforts.

Turkey says yes – willing to bear the burden on the Arab Spring.

Soner Cagaptay, Senior fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Jan ’12 (http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/opedsPDFs/4f280b51ad0cb.pdf)

Since then, the relationship has been on

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strategy led by Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.

Net Benefit #1 – Strategic Cooperation

Strategic cooperation over the Middle East spills-over to Afghanistan – solves instability.

Kılıç Buğra Kanat, Research fellow with the SETA Foundation, 12/25/11 (http://www.todayszaman.com/newsDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=266628)

After eight years of periodic crises in Turkish

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and cooperation in the region and economic integration.

Nuclear war and turns Mid East impacts.

Morgan ‘7 (Stephen J. Morgan

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_a_taliban_nuclear_pakistan)

However events may prove him sorely wrong.

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with China and Russia pitted against the US.

US-Saudi relations are high but vulnerable

Gause December 11, Professor of Political Science, University of Vermont, (F. Gregory, "Saudi Arabia in the New Middle East," December, www.cfr.org/saudi-arabia/saudi-arabia-new-middle-east/p26663)

 U.S. analysts tend to

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characterize the relationship more than a common worldview.

Plan tanks relations

Karen Leigh6/8/2011 (Writer for TIME, "The US and Bahrain: How to Talk Just Tough Enough with an Ally" http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2076559,00.html)

Coming after Obama lashed out at Bahrain's violent

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inclusive exercise that leads to genuine political reform."

Breakdown of relations spurs Saudi prolif

Lippman, 8/5 (Sr. Adjunct Scholar-Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.susris.com/2011/08/05/saudi-arabia’s-nuclear-policy-lippman/)

So let us suppose that Saudi Arabia’s currently

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might emerge less secure, rather than more.

Global nuclear war.

Edelman, 11 (Jan/Feb, Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments & Former U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran)

Regardless of India’s reaction, any decision by

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party, potentially triggering a regional nuclear war.

Democratic identity is coupled with security concerns – they paint non democratic structures as violent and a threat to American security concerns

Hayes 2011, Jarrod, Assistant Professor of International Relations

   Faculty Affiliate, Center for International Strategy, Technology, and Policy (CISTP), Georgia Institute of Technology, “Securitization, Social Identity, and Democratic Security: Nixon, India, and the Ties  that Bind.”  International Organization 66(1)

In the securitization process, democratic identity acts

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state in an effort to garner international support.

Treating security as an a priori legitimizes the WMD suicide pact and billions of deaths

Der Derian 1998 [James, prof of political science at Brown, “The Value of Security: Hobbes, Marx, Nietzsche, and Baudrillard On Security,” ed. Ronnie Lipschutz, http://www.ciaonet.org/book/lipschutz/index.html]

No other concept in international relations packs the

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bomb-site for a permanently electioneering elite.

Vote negative to return the gift of security—refusing to constitute a series of threats by voting negative defetishizes security and makes imagining a new world possible

Neocleous, prof. of critique of political economy @ Brunei University, 2008 p. 185-186

(Mark, Critique of Security)

The only way out of such a dilemma

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be brave enough to return the gift.143 

1NC speedy timeframe

Text: The United States Agency for International Development should create a pilot impact evaluation program to study democracy and governance programs. The impact evaluation should implement an N = 1 Study with USAID Control over Timing and Location of Treatment. The United States federal government should submit a proposal to (plan action) to the impact evaluation process. The United States should implement the alternative identified in the impact evaluation that has the greatest impact on democratization as is reasonably achievable.

Contention One – Competition – any perm severs certainty and immediacy; and violates the word “resolved,” which means “to make a firm decision about.” CP also tests the word “should” which is “used to express obligation or duty” – both from American Heritage Dictionary 2k.[1] Perms must be topical, and counterplans that test the resolution are key to predictable neg ground.

Impact evaluations increase efficiency and dodges link to politics

National Academies Press, 2008("Improving Democracy Assistance," http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12164&page=219 p.220-1)

PROVIDING LEADERSHIP AND STRATEGIC VISION Obtaining more impact

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edge for revitalizing evaluation across the agency.1

No impact evaluations now – no common criterion

Molutsi, 2010(Patrick, Executive Secretary of the Tertiary Education Council (TEC) in Botswana. Before joining the TEC, he worked for International IDEA as Director of Field Programmes. "The evaluation of democracy support programmes: an agenda for future debate," http://www.adb.org/evaluation/documents/EvaluatingDemocracySupport.pdf)

The papers presented at the workshop on Methods

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to remain a subject of discussion as well.

Impact evaluation creates aid leadership globally

National Academies Press, 2008("Improving Democracy Assistance," http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12164&page=219 p.232)

The committee wants to restate clearly its position

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and strengthening of democratic polities throughout the world.

Decreases war, terror, and solves climate

Glen, Georgetown University Law Center, 2011 (Patrick, "Democracy Promotion in the Obama

Administration: An Opportunity to Match Action to

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%20East%20Democracy%20Assistance%22)

Ultimately, as recognized in the introduction,

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be more peaceful and tranquil than the present.

Destruction of the environment and ozone killing earth’s carrying capacity and causing extinction

Oliver Tickell (Climate Researcher) August 11 ‘8 “On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)

We need to get prepared for four degrees

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could propel us towards a similar hothouse Earth.