2Advantage 1: Transition 

Plan: The United States federal government should provide technical assistance to the Egyptian government for the promotion of transparency, accountability and oversight.

Egyptian economy headed toward collapse—solving corruption is key

MacFARQUHAR 11/1 (Neil, New York Times, “Euphoria Turns to Discontent as Egypt’s Revolution Stalls” 11/1/11 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/02/world/middleeast/egypts-tourism-suffers-as-its-revolution-stalls.html?pagewanted=all)

The revolution was beautiful, but nobody imagined 

AND 

, which groups elite multinational and Egyptian companies.

Elite Capture increases unemployment, causes capital flight, and drives away investment. The impact is middle class collapse and instability 

DANIEL KAUFMANN 2011, September GOVERNANCE AND THE ARAB WORLD TRANSITION: REFLECTIONS, EMPIRICS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SENIOR FELLOW GLOBAL ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT BROOKINGS http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/reports/2011/09_global_development/2011_blum_governance_arab_world_kaufmann.pdf

More generally, these transitions often take place 

AND 

expense of the poor should not be ignored.

Impacts – First – Democratic Transition

Collapse of middle market growth ensures an explosion of radicalism. 

Picht 11(James, teaches economics at the Louisiana Scholars' College, “After Mubarak: The Muslim Brotherhood” 2/11/11 http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/stimulus/2011/feb/11/after-mubarak-muslim-brotherhood/)

The unfolding revolution in Egypt is a struggle 

AND 

, a secular organization with an Islamic bent.

That economic collapse and radicalism exacerbates tensions—causes a political reordering of the entire Gulf—Egypt is the key.  

Jon B. Alterman 6/15/11 director and senior fellow of the Middle East Program at CSIS “ THE EARTHQUAKE: HOW EGYPT EMERGES FROM UNCERTAINTY” http://csis.org/publication/earthquake-how-egypt-emerges-uncertainty

Mubarak’s sudden departure from the scene leaves a 

AND 

openness at a time of maximal economic disorder.

High risk of regional war.

KUNA 9/5(Kuwait news Agency, “Specter Of War Looming In Mideast, Says Israeli General” 9/5/11 http://www.eurasiareview.com/specter-of-war-looming-in-mideast-says-israeli-general-05092011/)

Recent revolutions in the Arab world and the 

AND 

new Palestinian capabilities,” one of them said.

Regional conflict would escalate to chemical, biological and nuclear war. Normal checks on escalation don’t apply in this instance.

Russell ‘9James A. Spring  Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East managing editor of Strategic Insights, the quarterly ejournal published by the Center for Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) in Monterey, California. He also serves as senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, where he is teaching courses on Middle East security affairs, terrorism, and national security strategy. From 1988-2001, Mr. Russell held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affair\ s, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense. www.nps.edu/academbvics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/.../PP26_Russell_2009.pdf

Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined 

AND 

, with substantial risk for the entire world.

Second –Egyptian economic collapse causes Israeli nuclear war.

Bruce P. Chadwick, 7/6/11 PhD, CFA, is principal at Chadwick Global Research and Consulting, an independent consulting firm specializing in macro strategy, including quantitative, emerging market, and SRI research. Worldview: Summer Perspectives on the Arab Spring New York Society of Security Analysts http://post.nyssa.org/nyssa-news/2011/07/summer-perspectives-on-the-arab-spring.html

THE EGYPTIAN OUTCOME IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT Westerners often 

AND 

on a hair-trigger will be considerable.

Advantage 2: Investment

Corruption prevents FDI which is key to solve investment in renewables

Ahram Online 11 (“Corruption threatens Egypt's energy plans: new report” http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/11100/Business/Economy/Corruption-threatens-Egypts-energy-plans-new-repor.aspx 4/30/11”

Endemic corruption could stall Egypt's plans for developing 

AND 

other regions for investment," the chapter concludes.

Perception of powerful US investment key

Allen 3/9 (Michael, Special Assistant for Government Relations and Public Affairs at the National Endowment for Democracy. A former journalist covering European and international labor affairs, Allen  also worked on civil society and labor development in Asia for a consortium comprising the World Bank, Nike, Gap and the International Youth Foundation, “Crony capitalism and populist politics threaten Tunisia’s transition?” 3/9 http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/03/crony-capitalism-and-populist-politics-threaten-tunisias-transition/)

Tunisia presents an unprecedented opportunity to support a 

AND 

while pressing for market-friendly reforms.2

Egyptian renewable energy development causes wider regional adoption – lack of investment and growth is the key set back.

Takoko, 11 (Mere, Egypt’s Rising Sun, March 1, 2011, http://www.koha.biz/2011/03/egypt%E2%80%99s-rising-sun/)

For other investors, Egypt’s economic woes threatened 

AND 

maintains a favourable environment for renewable energy development.

Regional development of renewables is already cost-effective – transition would be fast.

Elliot, ’11 (Professor of Technology Policy – Open University, June 4, http://environmentalresearchweb.org/blog/2011/06/green-energy-in-the-middle-eas.html)

PV ‘cheaper than oil’ in Gulf Falling 

AND 

electricity markets in the Gulf extremely quickly.’ 

The Impact is Prolif—

MENA renewables development creates an alternative to and political pressure against nuclear power and prolif.

Datan, ‘7 (Greenpeace, http://www.gsinstitute.org/mpi/docs/A6F_Vienna_Datan.pdf)

Moreover, since nuclear material and technology, 

AND 

decidedly positive contribution to security in the region.  

Mid East nuclear power revival will cause a prolif cascade now.

Franceschini & Muller, ’11 (Research associate at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF) and at Darmstadt University of Technology & Research assistant at PRIF currently working on Egypt’s arms control policy, July 7, http://www.nonproliferation.eu/documents/backgroundpapers/franceschini.pdf)

As of today, nuclear power has played 

AND 

cascade in a region of strong political tension.

Mid East prolif isn’t stabilizing – multiple reasons.

Richard Russell, Georgetown Security Studies Professor, ‘6 (Military Review, Nov/Dec, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0PBZ/is_6_86/ai_n27084058/pg_4/?tag=content;col1)

How would the Middle East be affected by 

AND 

like the one that exists in Pakistan today.

Solvency 

Contention Three: Solvency.

Expertise and technical assistance solve corruption in Egypt

Dunne et al 11 (Michael, Director of Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East Atlantic Council, Jeffrey Gedmen, President and CEO Legatum Institute, Marek Dabrowski, Center for Social and Economic Research (Warsaw) Uri Dadush, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Washington, DC) Hafez Ghanem, UN Food and Agriculture Organization (Rome) Mara Revkin, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council (Washington, DC) Dalibor Rohac, Legatum Institute (London) Dessy Roussanova, International Alert (London) Michal Safianik, Community of Democracies (Warsaw) Tarik Yousef, Dubai School of Government Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “ EGYPT’S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION FIVE IMPORTANT MYTHS ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE” July 2011 http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Egypts_Democratic_Trans_UK16ppWEB.pdf

Donors can also help this transition through projects 

AND 

the institutions needed to open up public debate.

Corruption reforms have increased since the revolution but are selective – broader change is necessary.

JOSHUA STACHER October 2011 assistant professor of political science at Kent State University COUNTRIES AT THE CROSSROADS 2011: EGYPT http://www.freedomhouse.org/images/File/CaC/2011/EgyptFinal.pdf

ANTICORRUPTION AND TRANSPARENCY Despite being a party to 

AND 

of an all-powerful, unaccountable executive.

US leadership on anti-corruption is critical – now is the key time.

Shadi Hamid 10-21-11  What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring

from Brookings: Topics - The Arab Spring 

AND 

CuWNcw0cNvc/1001_obama_hamid.aspx

But, more than nine months since the 

AND 

they’re the ones who need to do it.”

Egyptian businesses are calling on US Aid to increase privatization and job creation

Younis and Younis 2011 August “The Role of Entrepreneurship and Job Creation in U.S.-Muslim Relations” Convened and Authored by: Ahmed Younis Mohamed Younis Senior Practice Consultant at Gallup and a Senior Analyst at the Gallup Center for Muslim Studies and the Abu Dhabi Gallup Center. Senior Analyst at the Gallup Center for Muslim Studies and a Senior Practice Consultant at Gallup. He is a primary author of the Silatech Index report—an analysis of the public opinion of young Arabs—and serves as a Senior Analyst at the Abu Dhabi Gallup Center. Saban Center at Brookings.

The uprisings across the Arab world present U

AND 

States the respect sought by many Muslims.24

US assistance is key—Only country with the expertise and structure 

Diamond 8 (Larry, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and author of The Spirit of Democracy: The Struggle To Build Free Societies Throughout the World, “End Foreign Aid As We Know It” Issue #8, Spring 2008 Democracy Journal)

After more than four decades and $500 

AND 

own security—by showing that we agree. 

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Use the second box for cites formatted with wiki syntax or plain text, such as that exported from Verbatim 4.

Round Advantage 1: Transition 

Plan: The United States federal government should provide technical assistance to the Egyptian government for the promotion of transparency, accountability and oversight.

Egyptian economy headed toward collapse—solving corruption is key

MacFARQUHAR 11/1 (Neil, New York Times, “Euphoria Turns to Discontent as Egypt’s Revolution Stalls” 11/1/11 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/02/world/middleeast/egypts-tourism-suffers-as-its-revolution-stalls.html?pagewanted=all)

The revolution was beautiful, but nobody imagined 

AND 

, which groups elite multinational and Egyptian companies.

Elite Capture increases unemployment, causes capital flight, and drives away investment. The impact is middle class collapse and instability 

DANIEL KAUFMANN 2011, September GOVERNANCE AND THE ARAB WORLD TRANSITION: REFLECTIONS, EMPIRICS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SENIOR FELLOW GLOBAL ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT BROOKINGS http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/reports/2011/09_global_development/2011_blum_governance_arab_world_kaufmann.pdf

More generally, these transitions often take place 

AND 

expense of the poor should not be ignored.

Impacts – First – Democratic Transition

Collapse of middle market growth ensures an explosion of radicalism. 

Picht 11(James, teaches economics at the Louisiana Scholars' College, “After Mubarak: The Muslim Brotherhood” 2/11/11 http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/stimulus/2011/feb/11/after-mubarak-muslim-brotherhood/)

The unfolding revolution in Egypt is a struggle 

AND 

, a secular organization with an Islamic bent.

That economic collapse and radicalism exacerbates tensions—causes a political reordering of the entire Gulf—Egypt is the key.  

Jon B. Alterman 6/15/11 director and senior fellow of the Middle East Program at CSIS “ THE EARTHQUAKE: HOW EGYPT EMERGES FROM UNCERTAINTY” http://csis.org/publication/earthquake-how-egypt-emerges-uncertainty

Mubarak’s sudden departure from the scene leaves a 

AND 

openness at a time of maximal economic disorder.

High risk of regional war.

KUNA 9/5(Kuwait news Agency, “Specter Of War Looming In Mideast, Says Israeli General” 9/5/11 http://www.eurasiareview.com/specter-of-war-looming-in-mideast-says-israeli-general-05092011/)

Recent revolutions in the Arab world and the 

AND 

new Palestinian capabilities,” one of them said.

Regional conflict would escalate to chemical, biological and nuclear war. Normal checks on escalation don’t apply in this instance.

Russell ‘9James A. Spring  Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East managing editor of Strategic Insights, the quarterly ejournal published by the Center for Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) in Monterey, California. He also serves as senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, where he is teaching courses on Middle East security affairs, terrorism, and national security strategy. From 1988-2001, Mr. Russell held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affair\ s, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense. www.nps.edu/academbvics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/.../PP26_Russell_2009.pdf

Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined 

AND 

, with substantial risk for the entire world.

Second –Egyptian economic collapse causes Israeli nuclear war.

Bruce P. Chadwick, 7/6/11 PhD, CFA, is principal at Chadwick Global Research and Consulting, an independent consulting firm specializing in macro strategy, including quantitative, emerging market, and SRI research. Worldview: Summer Perspectives on the Arab Spring New York Society of Security Analysts http://post.nyssa.org/nyssa-news/2011/07/summer-perspectives-on-the-arab-spring.html

THE EGYPTIAN OUTCOME IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT Westerners often 

AND 

on a hair-trigger will be considerable.

Advantage 2: Investment

Corruption prevents FDI which is key to solve investment in renewables

Ahram Online 11 (“Corruption threatens Egypt's energy plans: new report” http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/11100/Business/Economy/Corruption-threatens-Egypts-energy-plans-new-repor.aspx 4/30/11”

Endemic corruption could stall Egypt's plans for developing 

AND 

other regions for investment," the chapter concludes.

Perception of powerful US investment key

Allen 3/9 (Michael, Special Assistant for Government Relations and Public Affairs at the National Endowment for Democracy. A former journalist covering European and international labor affairs, Allen  also worked on civil society and labor development in Asia for a consortium comprising the World Bank, Nike, Gap and the International Youth Foundation, “Crony capitalism and populist politics threaten Tunisia’s transition?” 3/9 http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/03/crony-capitalism-and-populist-politics-threaten-tunisias-transition/)

Tunisia presents an unprecedented opportunity to support a 

AND 

while pressing for market-friendly reforms.2

Egyptian renewable energy development causes wider regional adoption – lack of investment and growth is the key set back.

Takoko, 11 (Mere, Egypt’s Rising Sun, March 1, 2011, http://www.koha.biz/2011/03/egypt%E2%80%99s-rising-sun/)

For other investors, Egypt’s economic woes threatened 

AND 

maintains a favourable environment for renewable energy development.

Regional development of renewables is already cost-effective – transition would be fast.

Elliot, ’11 (Professor of Technology Policy – Open University, June 4, http://environmentalresearchweb.org/blog/2011/06/green-energy-in-the-middle-eas.html)

PV ‘cheaper than oil’ in Gulf Falling 

AND 

electricity markets in the Gulf extremely quickly.’ 

The Impact is Prolif—

MENA renewables development creates an alternative to and political pressure against nuclear power and prolif.

Datan, ‘7 (Greenpeace, http://www.gsinstitute.org/mpi/docs/A6F_Vienna_Datan.pdf)

Moreover, since nuclear material and technology, 

AND 

decidedly positive contribution to security in the region.  

Mid East nuclear power revival will cause a prolif cascade now.

Franceschini & Muller, ’11 (Research associate at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF) and at Darmstadt University of Technology & Research assistant at PRIF currently working on Egypt’s arms control policy, July 7, http://www.nonproliferation.eu/documents/backgroundpapers/franceschini.pdf)

As of today, nuclear power has played 

AND 

cascade in a region of strong political tension.

Mid East prolif isn’t stabilizing – multiple reasons.

Richard Russell, Georgetown Security Studies Professor, ‘6 (Military Review, Nov/Dec, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0PBZ/is_6_86/ai_n27084058/pg_4/?tag=content;col1)

How would the Middle East be affected by 

AND 

like the one that exists in Pakistan today.

Solvency 

Contention Three: Solvency.

Expertise and technical assistance solve corruption in Egypt

Dunne et al 11 (Michael, Director of Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East Atlantic Council, Jeffrey Gedmen, President and CEO Legatum Institute, Marek Dabrowski, Center for Social and Economic Research (Warsaw) Uri Dadush, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Washington, DC) Hafez Ghanem, UN Food and Agriculture Organization (Rome) Mara Revkin, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council (Washington, DC) Dalibor Rohac, Legatum Institute (London) Dessy Roussanova, International Alert (London) Michal Safianik, Community of Democracies (Warsaw) Tarik Yousef, Dubai School of Government Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “ EGYPT’S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION FIVE IMPORTANT MYTHS ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE” July 2011 http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Egypts_Democratic_Trans_UK16ppWEB.pdf

Donors can also help this transition through projects 

AND 

the institutions needed to open up public debate.

Corruption reforms have increased since the revolution but are selective – broader change is necessary.

JOSHUA STACHER October 2011 assistant professor of political science at Kent State University COUNTRIES AT THE CROSSROADS 2011: EGYPT http://www.freedomhouse.org/images/File/CaC/2011/EgyptFinal.pdf

ANTICORRUPTION AND TRANSPARENCY Despite being a party to 

AND 

of an all-powerful, unaccountable executive.

US leadership on anti-corruption is critical – now is the key time.

Shadi Hamid 10-21-11  What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring

from Brookings: Topics - The Arab Spring 

AND 

CuWNcw0cNvc/1001_obama_hamid.aspx

But, more than nine months since the 

AND 

they’re the ones who need to do it.”

Egyptian businesses are calling on US Aid to increase privatization and job creation

Younis and Younis 2011 August “The Role of Entrepreneurship and Job Creation in U.S.-Muslim Relations” Convened and Authored by: Ahmed Younis Mohamed Younis Senior Practice Consultant at Gallup and a Senior Analyst at the Gallup Center for Muslim Studies and the Abu Dhabi Gallup Center. Senior Analyst at the Gallup Center for Muslim Studies and a Senior Practice Consultant at Gallup. He is a primary author of the Silatech Index report—an analysis of the public opinion of young Arabs—and serves as a Senior Analyst at the Abu Dhabi Gallup Center. Saban Center at Brookings.

The uprisings across the Arab world present U

AND 

States the respect sought by many Muslims.24

US assistance is key—Only country with the expertise and structure 

Diamond 8 (Larry, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and author of The Spirit of Democracy: The Struggle To Build Free Societies Throughout the World, “End Foreign Aid As We Know It” Issue #8, Spring 2008 Democracy Journal)

After more than four decades and $500 

AND 

own security—by showing that we agree. 

Contention One: Water Access

Corruption in the water sector diverts water from impoverished

Tolen and Buchen 11/30 (Center for Investigative Reporting, Appeared on PBS, “Egypt: Food for a revolution” 11/30/11 http://centerforinvestigativereporting.org/articles/egypt-food-for-a-revolution-4897)

In 2008, three years before Egyptians rose 

AND 

? The person “who will feed you.”

Corruption in the water sector has caused massive price hikes and leaves individuals unable to eat, drink, or afford even sustenance 

IRIN 11 (Integrated Regional Information Networks, a UN humanitarian news and information service. IRIN is a project of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. “Egypt protesters voice grievances, aspirations” 2/3/11 http://electronicintifada.net/content/egypt-protesters-voice-grievances-aspirations/9211)

CAIRO (IRIN) - Large-scale 

AND 

crimes and go unpunished. Policemen are corrupt.

Egypt says yes, still optimistic, key to African modeling

Pirino 7/2 (Manuel, Space for Transparency, “EGYPT NEEDS STRONGER ANTI-CORRUPTION LAWS, AND ENFORCEMENT” 7/2/11 http://blog.transparency.org/2011/07/02/egypt-needs-stronger-anti-corruption-laws-and-enforcement/)

As the report’s author, judge Ashraf Ali 

AND 

the reform and engagement opportunities that lie ahead.

Corruption policy of Egypt is modeled throughout the region

International Crisis Group 2/24 (“Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (I): Egypt Victorious?” 2/24 http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/egypt/101-popular-protest-in-north-africa-and-the-middle-east-i-egypt-victorious.aspx)

Independent, credible bodies might be set up 

AND 

once again will be on the Egyptian people.

Corruption is inherently bad—Rejection of all corruption is a moral obligation necessary for ethics

Malrate 8/11 (Andrea, the European Commission in Brussels and teaches Economics at the Brussels Free University. My areas of interest include European integration, economics of inequality, regional development and evaluation of public policies, “Corruption and the Rise of Dignity” 8/11/11 http://amairate.blogspot.com/2011/08/corruption-and-rise-of-dignity.html)

Populist parties seek today legitimation and social acceptance 

AND 

of it is that which alone has dignity".

Corruption of the water industry kills the environment and local keystone species risking extinction so that wealth Egyptians can build golf courses

Farouk 7/11 (Sameh, Greenpeace Arabic, Irrigation and Environmental Affairs at Zagazig University. “Fish Farms in Egypt and Biological Poisoning Disaster” Translated from Arabic 7/11/11 http://kenanaonline.com/users/peaceland/posts/290982)

At a time when the world have many 

AND 

been eliminated for the establishment of such resorts.

Corruption prevents billions from accessing water leading to two million deaths a year—Governance reform, accountability and regulation are critical to solve

IRIN 8 (Integrated Regional Information Networks, a service of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, “”GLOBAL: Killer kickbacks - corruption in water sector affects millions” June 26, 2008 http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=78960)

Corruption is one of the main causes of 

AND 

scourge through improved monitoring, accountability and regulation. 

Contention Two: Warming

Corruption prevents renewables development

Ahram Online 11 (“Corruption threatens Egypt's energy plans: new report” http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/11100/Business/Economy/Corruption-threatens-Egypts-energy-plans-new-repor.aspx 4/30/11”

Endemic corruption could stall Egypt's plans for developing 

AND 

other regions for investment," the chapter concludes.

Egyptian renewable energy development causes wider regional adoption – lack of investment and growth is the key set back.

Takoko, 11 (Mere, Egypt’s Rising Sun, March 1, 2011, http://www.koha.biz/2011/03/egypt%E2%80%99s-rising-sun/)

For other investors, Egypt’s economic woes threatened 

AND 

maintains a favourable environment for renewable energy development.

Egypt is key to International Renewables Adoption; Warming causes Water Wars and riots in the Nile Basin

Sterman 9 (David, “Climate Change in Egypt: Rising Sea Level, Dwindling Water Supplies” July 2009 http://www.climate.org/topics/international-action/egypt.html)

If climate change continues unabated, it threatens 

AND 

of the international community to take similar action.

These water wars go nuclear and trigger extinction

Glick 7 (Caroline, Jerusalem Post, “Condi's African Holiday” 12/11/07 http://townhall.com/columnists/carolineglick/2007/12/11/condis_african_holiday/page/full/)

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice introduced a 

AND 

which flows through all countries of the region.

Renewables are essential to avert warming; Egypt is the critical case study for the development of alternative energies

Kock 9 (Cornelia, Master Thesis awarded by the the Philosophical Faculty of Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg i.Br. (Germany) and the University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban (South Africa) “Climate Change and the Solar Sector in Egypt” Winter semester 08/09)

In this context the direct link between human 

AND 

time give impetus to eco- nomic development.

Destruction of the environment and ozone killing earth’s carrying capacity and causing extinction

Oliver Tickell (Climate Researcher) August 11 ‘8 “On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)

We need to get prepared for four degrees 

AND 

could propel us towards a similar hothouse Earth. 

Plan: The United States federal government should provide technical assistance to the Egyptian government for the promotion of transparency, accountability and oversight.

Contention Three: Solvency

Expertise and technical assistance solve corruption in Egypt

Dunne et al 11 (Michael, Director 

Egypts_Democratic_Trans_UK16ppWEB.pdf

Donors can also help this transition through projects 

AND 

the institutions needed to open up public debate.

Corruption reforms have increased since the revolution but are selective – broader change is necessary.

JOSHUA STACHER October 2011 assistant professor of political science at Kent State University COUNTRIES AT THE CROSSROADS 2011: EGYPT http://www.freedomhouse.org/images/File/CaC/2011/EgyptFinal.pdf

ANTICORRUPTION AND TRANSPARENCY Despite being a party to 

AND 

of an all-powerful, unaccountable executive.

US leadership on anti-corruption is critical – now is the key time.

Shadi Hamid 10-21-11  What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring

from Brookings: Topics - The Arab Spring and Middle East Unrest by http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~r/BrookingsRSS/topics/middleeastunrest/~3/CuWNcw0cNvc/1001_obama_hamid.aspx

But, more than nine months since the 

AND 

they’re the ones who need to do it.”

US assistance is key—Only country with the expertise and structure 

Diamond 8 (Larry, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and author of The Spirit of Democracy: The Struggle To Build Free Societies Throughout the World, “End Foreign Aid As We Know It” Issue #8, Spring 2008 Democracy Journal)

After more than four decades and $500 

AND 

own security—by showing that we agree. 

froshContention 1: Transition 

Plan: The United States federal government should provide technical assistance to the Egyptian government for the promotion of transparency, accountability and oversight.

Resolving corruption is critical to save the faltering economy and revolution—SCAF has to accept because they lack room to maneuver

Tupy 2/3 (Marian, is a policy analyst at the Cato Institute's Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity in Washington, D.C. “Economic Freedom Must Accompany Democracy in Egypt” 2/3/12 http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=14076)

The latest outbreak of violence in Egypt is 

AND 

to learn from the death of Mohamed Bouazizi.

Elite Capture increases unemployment, causes capital flight, and drives away investment. The impact is middle class collapse and instability 

DANIEL KAUFMANN 2011, September GOVERNANCE AND THE ARAB WORLD TRANSITION: REFLECTIONS, EMPIRICS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SENIOR FELLOW GLOBAL ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT BROOKINGS http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/reports/2011/09_global_development/2011_blum_governance_arab_world_kaufmann.pdf

More generally, these transitions often take place 

AND 

expense of the poor should not be ignored.

Impacts – First – Democratic Transition

Collapse of middle market growth ensures an explosion of radicalism. 

Picht 11(James, teaches economics at the Louisiana Scholars' College, “After Mubarak: The Muslim Brotherhood” 2/11/11 http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/stimulus/2011/feb/11/after-mubarak-muslim-brotherhood/)

The unfolding revolution in Egypt is a struggle 

AND 

, a secular organization with an Islamic bent.

That economic collapse and radicalism exacerbates tensions—causes a political reordering of the entire Gulf—Egypt is the key.  

Jon B. Alterman 6/15/11 director and senior fellow of the Middle East Program at CSIS “ THE EARTHQUAKE: HOW EGYPT EMERGES FROM UNCERTAINTY” http://csis.org/publication/earthquake-how-egypt-emerges-uncertainty

Mubarak’s sudden departure from the scene leaves a 

AND 

openness at a time of maximal economic disorder.

Regional conflict would escalate to chemical, biological and nuclear war. Normal checks on escalation don’t apply in this instance.

Russell ‘9James A. Spring  Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East managing editor of Strategic Insights, the quarterly ejournal published by the Center for Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) in Monterey, California. He also serves as senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, where he is teaching courses on Middle East security affairs, terrorism, and national security strategy. From 1988-2001, Mr. Russell held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affair\ s, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense. www.nps.edu/academbvics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/.../PP26_Russell_2009.pdf

Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined 

AND 

, with substantial risk for the entire world.

Second –Egyptian economic collapse causes Israeli nuclear war drawing in outside powers and causing extinction

Bruce P. Chadwick, 7/6/11 PhD, CFA, is principal at Chadwick Global Research and Consulting, an independent consulting firm specializing in macro strategy, including quantitative, emerging market, and SRI research. Worldview: Summer Perspectives on the Arab Spring New York Society of Security Analysts http://post.nyssa.org/nyssa-news/2011/07/summer-perspectives-on-the-arab-spring.html

THE EGYPTIAN OUTCOME IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT Westerners often 

AND 

on a hair-trigger will be considerable.

Contention Two: Warming

Corruption prevents renewables development

Ahram Online 11 (“Corruption threatens Egypt's energy plans: new report” http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/11100/Business/Economy/Corruption-threatens-Egypts-energy-plans-new-repor.aspx 4/30/11”

Endemic corruption could stall Egypt's plans for developing 

AND 

other regions for investment," the chapter concludes.

Egyptian renewable energy development causes wider regional adoption – lack of investment and growth is the key set back.

Takoko, 11 (Mere, Egypt’s Rising Sun, March 1, 2011, http://www.koha.biz/2011/03/egypt%E2%80%99s-rising-sun/)

For other investors, Egypt’s economic woes threatened 

AND 

maintains a favourable environment for renewable energy development.

Egypt is key to International Renewables Adoption; Warming causes Water Wars and riots in the Nile Basin

Sterman 9 (David, “Climate Change in Egypt: Rising Sea Level, Dwindling Water Supplies” July 2009 http://www.climate.org/topics/international-action/egypt.html)

If climate change continues unabated, it threatens 

AND 

of the international community to take similar action.

These water wars go nuclear and trigger extinction

Glick 7 (Caroline, Jerusalem Post, “Condi's African Holiday” 12/11/07 http://townhall.com/columnists/carolineglick/2007/12/11/condis_african_holiday/page/full/)

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice introduced a 

AND 

which flows through all countries of the region.

Renewables are essential to avert warming; Egypt is the critical case study for the development of alternative energies

Kock 9 (Cornelia, Master Thesis awarded by the the Philosophical Faculty of Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg i.Br. (Germany) and the University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban (South Africa) “Climate Change and the Solar Sector in Egypt” Winter semester 08/09)

In this context the direct link between human 

AND 

time give impetus to eco- nomic development.

Destruction of the environment and ozone killing earth’s carrying capacity and causing extinction

Oliver Tickell (Climate Researcher) August 11 ‘8 “On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)

We need to get prepared for four degrees 

AND 

could propel us towards a similar hothouse Earth. 

Contention Three: Solvency.

Expertise and technical assistance solve corruption in Egypt

Dunne et al 11 (Michael, Director of Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East Atlantic Council, Jeffrey Gedmen, President and CEO Legatum Institute, Marek Dabrowski, Center for Social and Economic Research (Warsaw) Uri Dadush, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Washington, DC) Hafez Ghanem, UN Food and Agriculture Organization (Rome) Mara Revkin, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council (Washington, DC) Dalibor Rohac, Legatum Institute (London) Dessy Roussanova, International Alert (London) Michal Safianik, Community of Democracies (Warsaw) Tarik Yousef, Dubai School of Government Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “ EGYPT’S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION FIVE IMPORTANT MYTHS ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE” July 2011 http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Egypts_Democratic_Trans_UK16ppWEB.pdf

Donors can also help this transition through projects 

AND 

the institutions needed to open up public debate.

Corruption reforms have increased since the revolution but are selective – broader change is necessary.

JOSHUA STACHER October 2011 assistant professor of political science at Kent State University COUNTRIES AT THE CROSSROADS 2011: EGYPT http://www.freedomhouse.org/images/File/CaC/2011/EgyptFinal.pdf

ANTICORRUPTION AND TRANSPARENCY Despite being a party to 

AND 

of an all-powerful, unaccountable executive.

US leadership on anti-corruption is critical – now is the key time.

Shadi Hamid 10-21-11  What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring

from Brookings: Topics - The Arab Spring and Middle East Unrest by http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~r/BrookingsRSS/topics/middleeastunrest/~3/CuWNcw0cNvc/1001_obama_hamid.aspx

But, more than nine months since the 

AND 

they’re the ones who need to do it.”

Egyptian businesses are calling on US Aid to increase privatization and job creation

Younis and Younis 2011 August “The Role of Entrepreneurship and Job Creation in U.S.-Muslim Relations” Convened and Authored by: Ahmed Younis Mohamed Younis Senior Practice Consultant at Gallup and a Senior Analyst at the Gallup Center for Muslim Studies and the Abu Dhabi Gallup Center. Senior Analyst at the Gallup Center for Muslim Studies and a Senior Practice Consultant at Gallup. He is a primary author of the Silatech Index report—an analysis of the public opinion of young Arabs—and serves as a Senior Analyst at the Abu Dhabi Gallup Center. Saban Center at Brookings.

The uprisings across the Arab world present U

AND 

States the respect sought by many Muslims.24

US assistance is key—Only country with the expertise and structure 

Diamond 8 (Larry, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and author of The Spirit of Democracy: The Struggle To Build Free Societies Throughout the World, “End Foreign Aid As We Know It” Issue #8, Spring 2008 Democracy Journal)

After more than four decades and $500 

AND 

own security—by showing that we agree. 

Plan – The United States Federal Government should substantially increase technical assistance to the Egyptian parliament for democratic police reform.

Civil War Advantage

Recent clashes have led to police firing live ammunition into crowds leading to hundreds of deaths—Parliamentary action to reform police services is crucial

Amnesty International 2/22 (Egypt: Systematic failure to rein in security forces” 2/22/12 http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/egypt-systematic-failure-rein-security-forces-2012-02-22) 

A year after the uprising, Egypt's security 

AND 

equipment to the Egyptian military and security forces.

SCAF is losing control but Parliament currently lacks the legitimacy to take control of the government—Checking violent police forces is an important step to solving statewide violence

Kelleher 2/16 (Will, Think Africa Press, “Is Egypt Growing Increasingly Violent?” 2/16/12 http://thinkafricapress.com/egypt/growing-increasingly-violent)

Protesters gathered outside the general prosecutor’s office in 

AND 

the political transition is complete”, he warned.

SCAF are holding firm yet are looking for a way out of power—plan is necessary to allow them to save face and return to the barracks

Hauslohner 2/9 (Abigail, TIME, “Egypt's NGO Crisis: How Will U.S. Aid Play in the Controversy?” 2/9/12 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2106420-1,00.html) 

Was this the telltale evidence? Egyptian authorities 

AND 

any more help from the U.S.

Legislature implementation of popular policies is necessary to distancing themselves from SCAF and attaining legitimacy

El Deeb 1/31 (Sarah, Seattle Pi, “Egyptian lawmakers accuse military of overreaching” 1/31/12 http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Egyptian-lawmakers-accuse-military-of-overreaching-2865193.php)

CAIRO (AP) — Egypt's Islamist-

AND 

to reopen (discussion) of these decrees."

This represents the most critical time for the Egyptian parliament’s legitimacy—Reforming police is a critical test of parliament

AllAfrica 2/1 (“Egypt: Friction Between the Military, the People and Parliament” 2/1/12 http://allafrica.com/stories/201202011224.html)

Tshwane/Pretoria — After the conclusion of 

AND 

be a crucial time in Egypt's political development.

Continued Governance by SCAF will cause officer break-aways and internal divisions—Return to the barracks and police reform are essential

Galey 2/16 (Patrick, Foreign Policy, “Why the Egyptian Military Fears a Captains' Revolt” 2/16/12 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/02/16/why_the_egyptian_military_fears_a_captains_revolt?page=0,1)

CAIRO — Battered by a fractious security situation 

AND 

cannot keep this up for too much longer."

Split in the armed forces coupled with mass protests threaten civil war—US dialogue with local leaders and legislature is uniquely critical to solve

The Michigan Citizen 12/4 (“Unrest can drag Egypt into civil war” 12/4/11 http://michigancitizen.com/unrest-can-drag-egypt-into-civil-war-p10555-78.htm)

Tens of thousands of Egyptians have held mass 

AND 

all the parties involved in the political situation.

That economic collapse and radicalism exacerbates tensions—causes a political reordering of the entire Gulf—Egypt is the key.  

Jon B. Alterman 6/15/11 director and senior fellow of the Middle East Program at CSIS “ THE EARTHQUAKE: HOW EGYPT EMERGES FROM UNCERTAINTY” http://csis.org/publication/earthquake-how-egypt-emerges-uncertainty

Mubarak’s sudden departure from the scene leaves a 

AND 

openness at a time of maximal economic disorder.

Regional conflict would escalate to chemical, biological and nuclear war. Normal checks on escalation don’t apply in this instance.

Russell ‘9James A. Spring  Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East managing editor of Strategic Insights, the quarterly ejournal published by the Center for Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) in Monterey, California. He also serves as senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, where he is teaching courses on Middle East security affairs, terrorism, and national security strategy. From 1988-2001, Mr. Russell held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affair\ s, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense. www.nps.edu/academbvics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/.../PP26_Russell_2009.pdf

Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined 

AND 

, with substantial risk for the entire world.

US-Egypt Relations

Plan is critical to US-Egypt relations and represents a warming from current rhetoric

Exum and Stuster 2/16 (Andrew and John, Center for New American Security “POLICING REFORM & REFORMING POLICE” 2/16/12 http://www.cnas.org/node/7783)

For decades, the United States has structured 

AND 

partnerships and successful, stable transitions to democracy. 

Scenario ___: Israeli Encirclement

US-Egyptian relations are critical to prevent Israeli encirclement

The Economist 11 (“Encircled by enemies again?” 2/17/11 http://www.economist.com/node/18186996)

The Egyptian upset is heightening a sense of 

AND 

be pressed towards giving Palestinians a proper state.

Leads to Samson option 

Dr. Christina Y. Lin, Researcher -- IHS Jane’s in Surrey, England, May '10 (http://kms1.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/116193/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/5c76a008-e150-46e6-8f88-fb4bab897cd7/en/Israel_Kennedy_Doctrine_May2010.pdf)

As the war drums beat louder in the 

AND 

it is forced to confront Iran by itself.

Samson Option leads to Extinction

JCI 11 (Jersulam Connection International is a non-profit magazine publication and organization, “Israel’s Samson Option” 4/7/11)

Without America standing with Israel, Israel stands 

AND 

Israel’s big brother is back by her side.

Scenario_____: Priority Suez Access

Loss of Egyptian Relations would lose access to the Suez and Bases critical to our global naval deterrence 

Wood 11 (David, Chief Military Correspondent for Politics Daily, “At Risk in Egypt's Turmoil: U.S. Military Access to the Middle East,” The Huffington Post, www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/)

Three hundred combat-armed paratroopers from the 

AND 

. and Egyptian] services will continue.''

Strong power projection and naval capabilities deter every great power war

Conway et al 2007 (James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” October, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf)

No other disruption is as potentially disastrous to 

AND 

control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

Solvency

The United States must engage newly elected parliaments as well as local officials to provide technical training of police forces—this is critical to relations and a democratic transition

Exum and Stuster 2/16 (Andrew and John, Center for New American Security “POLICING REFORM & REFORMING POLICE” 2/16/12 http://www.cnas.org/node/7783)

For decades, the United States has structured 

AND 

partnerships and successful, stable transitions to democracy. 

Police reform key to stability 

Financial Times 2/3/12, “ Chaos in Egypt”, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/875a642a-4e72-11e1-8670-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1mlmju2vd

The thought that anyone could have deliberately planned 

AND 

a recipe for disaster. Reform is urgent.

Giving the parliament aid for police reform is key to Egyptian stability and parliamentary legitimacy

Elgindy 2/14/12, Khaled, Visiting Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, “Egypt Must Look Back before It Can Move Forward”, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2012/0214_egypt_elgindy.aspx

Earlier this month, for the fourth time 

AND 

it increasingly difficult to forge a new future.

Police Reforms are critical to SCAF transition—They won’t backlash

Khalaf 2/6 (Roula, Financial Times, “Generals can help end Egypt’s deadly pattern” 2/6/12 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2a114c0a-50c7-11e1-ab40-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1mlnlYhms)

It has become a gruesomely familiar pattern: 

AND 

securing some of their longer-term demands.

Civil War Advantage

Recent clashes have led to police firing live ammunition into crowds leading to hundreds of deaths—Parliamentary action to reform police services is crucial

Amnesty International 2/22 (Egypt: Systematic failure to rein in security forces” 2/22/12 http://www.amnesty.org/en/news/egypt-systematic-failure-rein-security-forces-2012-02-22)

A year after the uprising, Egypt's security

AND

equipment to the Egyptian military and security forces.

SCAF is losing control but Parliament currently lacks the legitimacy to take control of the government—Checking violent police forces is an important step to solving statewide violence

Kelleher 2/16 (Will, Think Africa Press, “Is Egypt Growing Increasingly Violent?” 2/16/12 http://thinkafricapress.com/egypt/growing-increasingly-violent)

Protesters gathered outside the general prosecutor’s office in

AND

the political transition is complete”, he warned.

SCAF are holding firm yet are looking for a way out of power—plan is necessary to allow them to save face and return to the barracks

Hauslohner 2/9 (Abigail, TIME, “Egypt's NGO Crisis: How Will U.S. Aid Play in the Controversy?” 2/9/12 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2106420-1,00.html)

Was this the telltale evidence? Egyptian authorities

AND

any more help from the U.S.

FJP engagement is key to allowing SCAF to backtrack on repression—NGO crisis proves

Rogin 3/1/12 Josh Egypt

AND

the_champagne_corks_just_yet

David Kramer, president of Freedom House,

AND

transparent system for domestic civil society to operate.

Legislature implementation of popular policies is necessary to distancing themselves from SCAF and attaining legitimacy

El Deeb 1/31 (Sarah, Seattle Pi, “Egyptian lawmakers accuse military of overreaching” 1/31/12 http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Egyptian-lawmakers-accuse-military-of-overreaching-2865193.php)

CAIRO (AP) — Egypt's Islamist-

AND

to reopen (discussion) of these decrees."

Continued Governance by SCAF will cause officer break-aways and internal divisions—Return to the barracks and police reform are essential

Galey 2/16 (Patrick, Foreign Policy, “Why the Egyptian Military Fears a Captains' Revolt” 2/16/12 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/02/16/why_the_egyptian_military_fears_a_captains_revolt?page=0,1)

CAIRO — Battered by a fractious security situation

AND

cannot keep this up for too much longer."

Split in the armed forces coupled with mass protests threaten civil war—US dialogue with local leaders and legislature is uniquely critical to solve

The Michigan Citizen 12/4 (“Unrest can drag Egypt into civil war” 12/4/11 http://michigancitizen.com/unrest-can-drag-egypt-into-civil-war-p10555-78.htm)

Tens of thousands of Egyptians have held mass

AND

all the parties involved in the political situation.

That economic collapse and radicalism exacerbates tensions—causes a political reordering of the entire Gulf—Egypt is the key.

Jon B. Alterman 6/15/11 director and senior fellow of the Middle East Program at CSIS “ THE EARTHQUAKE: HOW EGYPT EMERGES FROM UNCERTAINTY” http://csis.org/publication/earthquake-how-egypt-emerges-uncertainty

Mubarak’s sudden departure from the scene leaves a

AND

openness at a time of maximal economic disorder.

Regional conflict would escalate to chemical, biological and nuclear war. Normal checks on escalation don’t apply in this instance.

Russell ‘9James A. Spring  Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East managing editor of Strategic Insights, the quarterly ejournal published by the Center for Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) in Monterey, California. He also serves as senior lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at NPS, where he is teaching courses on Middle East security affairs, terrorism, and national security strategy. From 1988-2001, Mr. Russell held a variety of positions in the Office of the Assistant Secretary Defense for International Security Affair\ s, Near East South Asia, Department of Defense. www.nps.edu/academbvics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/.../PP26_Russell_2009.pdf

Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined

AND

, with substantial risk for the entire world.

US-Egypt Relations

Egypt Relations are on the brink—Relations are determined by the Egyptian populace and legislature

Gaouette 3/1 (Nicole, Bloomberg, “U.S.-Egypt Tensions Persist as Democracy Workers Allowed to Leave Country” 3/1/12 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-01/u-s-ngo-workers-leave-egypt-after-travel-ban-lifted-in-foreign-funds-case.html)

U.S. pro-democracy workers

AND

get thanks to U.S. backing.”

Plan is critical to US-Egypt relations and represents a warming from current rhetoric

Exum and Stuster 2/16 (Andrew and John, Center for New American Security “POLICING REFORM & REFORMING POLICE” 2/16/12 http://www.cnas.org/node/7783)

For decades, the United States has structured

AND

partnerships and successful, stable transitions to democracy.

US-Egyptian relations are critical to prevent Israeli encirclement

The Economist 11 (“Encircled by enemies again?” 2/17/11 http://www.economist.com/node/18186996)

The Egyptian upset is heightening a sense of

AND

be pressed towards giving Palestinians a proper state.

Leads to Samson option

Dr. Christina Y. Lin, Researcher

AND

_Kennedy_Doctrine_May2010.pdf)

As the war drums beat louder in the

AND

it is forced to confront Iran by itself.

Samson Option leads to Extinction

JCI 11 (Jersulam Connection International is a non-profit magazine publication and organization, “Israel’s Samson Option” 4/7/11)

Without America standing with Israel, Israel stands

AND

Israel’s big brother is back by her side.

US influence in Egypt is key to limiting Iranian ambitions in the Middle East

Clemons, 11 (Steven Clemens, founder of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation, Publisher of the popular political blog The Washington Note, Mr. Clemons is a long-term policy practitioner and entrepreneur in Washington, D.C. He has served as Executive Vice President of the Economic Strategy Institute, Senior Policy Advisor on Economic and International Affairs to Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) and was the first Executive Director of the Nixon Center, “How Outcome in Egypt Could Affect the United States,” New America Foundation February 2, 2011,http://newamerica.net/publications/articles/2011/how_outcome_in_egypt_could_affect_the_united_states_44092)

 How will it affect the U.

AND

The impact on the region could be profound.

Egypt is the wild card- even a small shift in Iran-Egypt relations causes a massive, chaotic, and unpredictable re-alignment

Marashi and Parsi, 11 (Reza Marashi is the research director for the National Iranian American Council. Previously, he served in the U.S. State Department in the Office of Iranian Affairs, and was an analyst at the Institute for National Strategic Studies. Trita Parsi is the founder and president of the National Iranian American Council. He is the author of Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Iran, Israel and the United States, which earned a 2008 Arthur Ross Book Award from the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the 2010 recipient of the Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. Arab Spring Seen From Tehran, The Cairo Global Review, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:LRrs1q1gueIJ:www.aucegypt.edu/gapp/cairoreview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx%3Faid%3D62+http://www.aucegypt.edu/gapp/cairoreview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx%3Faid%3D62&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a&source=www.google.com)

As Iran jockeys for regional preeminence, Egypt

AND

regional influence while capitalizing on Egypt’s inward orientation.

Iranian Hegemony causes nuclear war.

Ben-Meir ‘7(Alon Ben

AND

)

Feeling emboldened and unrestrained, Tehran may,

AND

severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.

Solvency

Plan – The United States federal government should substantially increase technical assistance to the Egyptian parliament for democratic police reform.

The United States must engage newly elected parliaments as well as local officials to provide technical training of police forces—this is critical to relations and a democratic transition

Exum and Stuster 2/16 (Andrew and John, Center for New American Security “POLICING REFORM & REFORMING POLICE” 2/16/12 http://www.cnas.org/node/7783)

For decades, the United States has structured

AND

partnerships and successful, stable transitions to democracy.

Police reform key to stability

Financial Times 2/3/12, “ Chaos in Egypt”, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/875a642a-4e72-11e1-8670-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1mlmju2vd

The thought that anyone could have deliberately planned

AND

a recipe for disaster. Reform is urgent.

Giving the parliament aid for police reform is key to Egyptian stability and parliamentary legitimacy

Elgindy 2/14/12, Khaled, Visiting Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, “Egypt Must Look Back before It Can Move Forward”, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2012/0214_egypt_elgindy.aspx

Earlier this month, for the fourth time

AND

it increasingly difficult to forge a new future.

Police Reforms are critical to SCAF transition—They won’t backlash

Khalaf 2/6 (Roula, Financial Times, “Generals can help end Egypt’s deadly pattern” 2/6/12 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2a114c0a-50c7-11e1-ab40-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1mlnlYhms)

It has become a gruesomely familiar pattern:

AND

securing some of their longer-term demands.