RuOrientalism Kritik - UNI

The aff constructs the “Arab Spring” in a profoundly orientalist manner – the belief that Western-style secular liberal democracy is the solution in the Middle East and North Africa depicts the region as something to be dominated by the West and is rooted in a deeply  essentialist narrative

Daily Kos 4/7 (user angry marmot, part of DKos's "Eyes on Egypt and the Region" which focuses on the pro-democracy movements in North Africa, the Middle East, and beyond, "Orientalism, Modernity, & the Arab Spring", http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/04/07/963252/-Orientalism,-Modernitythe-Arab-Spring) 

Alternative and Framework – The roll of the ballot is to decide how to view the uprisings in the “Middle East” and whether or not to align with the resistance movements and protesters.  The “Arab Spring” represents the repudiation of the Orientalist myths and failure to reconsider how we construct the region precludes the advancement of a more cosmopolitan social science and makes policy failure inevitable

Giuseppe Caruso 2011 (post-doc researcher at the Centre of Excellence in Global Governance Research at the University of Helsinki, "For a Cosmopolitan Social Science: lessons from the 'Arab Spring,'" http://giuseppecaruso.wordpress.com/2011/05/21/for-a-cosmopolitan-social-science-lessons-from-the-%E2%80%9Carab-spring%E2%80%9D/)

Their rhetoric of Mid East security posits a top-down notions of security which denies the real human insecurities people face in the Mid East – this ensures the perpetuation of insecurity in the Mid East and the continuation of Orientalist depictions of the region.

Bilgin, ‘4(Assistant IR Prof -- Bilkentwww.arts.yorku.ca/politics/ncanefe/docs/readings%20for%20the%20curious%20mind/Pinar%20Bilgin%20on%20Whose%20Middle%20East.pdf)

The significance of conceiving the relationship between regions

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as voiced by myriad non-state actors.

The aff constructs a scarecrow threat of political Islamic groups as part of a strategy for American control of the Orient – the “Islamic threat” leads to the support of antidemocratic oppressive regimes and kills their agency

Mohammed Abu-Nimer 2011 (International Peace and Conflict Resolution Program @ American Univ, "The Arab world geographer," Vol 14 No 2, pg. 153-159)

For decades, authoritarian Arab regimes and dictators

AND

Christian protestors who protected each other while praying.

This outweighs and turns case – Orientalist discourse posits a false understanding of the region, recreating insecurities and causing extinction

Bilgin, '5 (Pinar, Dept of International Relations, Bilkent University, Ankara, Regional Security in the Middle East: A Critical Perspective, pg. 164-5)

Thinking about the future from a critical security

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complicit in perpetuating regional insecurity in the Middle East

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1NC

A. Uniqueness - South Korea Free Trade will pass now –bipartisan consensus on Trade Adjustment Assistance now, but it will be tough.

ABC News 9/8/11  “Commerce Confident Trade Agreements Will Pass”  http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/09/commerce-confident-trade-agreements-will-pass/

As the battle of the job  plans reaches

AND

with the GSP bill passing in the House.”

B. Link - Democracy assistance to MENA is broadly unpopular – generates the same acrimony as the debt limit debate.

Omar Karmi 8-2, 2011 US argues over foreign aid policy along with its debt problem http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/us-argues-over-foreign-aid-policy-along-with-its-debt-problem

With the same acrimony it has debated the

AND

terrorist organisation participate in government in any way.

C. Obama leverage is needed to pass the FTAs in order to make sure they don’t fall through the cracks.

Inside US Trade 8/18/11 http://insidetrade.com/Inside-US-Trade/Inside-U.S.-Trade-08/19/2011/with-fta-path-forward-still-unclear-quick-action-needed-in-the-fall/menu-id-710.html

If Congress and the White House are to

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"fall through the cracks" in September.

D. Impact - Failure to ratify SKFTA crushes the alliance and US leadership in Asia.

Knowlede at Wharton 1/12 (University of Pennsylvania newspaper, http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2671)

What's more, the fate of the pact has national security implications, says Brian Pomper, a partner at the Akin Gump law firm in Washington, D.C. and a former trade counsel for Sen. Max Baucus, a Montana Democrat who heads the Senate Finance Committee. With a nuclear-armed North Korea once more threatening military conflict, "some may wonder how can the United States give South Korea a stiff arm" by rejecting the deal? South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak has been widely criticized at home for his weak and indecisive response to a recent artillery attack by North Korea. If Congress rejects the deal, it will be a slap in Lee's face. So beyond economic considerations, Pomper says, "this [deal] is the sort of symbol of U.S. leadership in Asia that many other countries -- who are looking at China with a nervous eye -- have been [seeking]. It is reasserting American interests in Asia. The President has put his reputation on the line."

Alliance is critical to Prevent Korean war.

Pritchard et al, 09 – President of the Korea Economic Institute (Charles L, 6/16. With John H. Tilelli Jr., Chairman and CEO, Cypress International, and Scott A. Snyder, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Korea Studies, CFR. “A New Chapter for U.S.-South Korea Alliance.” Council on Foreign Relations. http://www.cfr.org/publication/19635/new_chapter_for_ussouth_korea_alliance.html)

While all eyes have been trained on North

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persuade China to put pressure on North Korea.

Korean conflict Goes nuclear and triggers every impact.

Hayes and Green, 10 - *Victoria University AND **Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute (Peter and Michael, “-“The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, 1/5,

http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf)

The consequences of failing to address the proliferation

AND

that warrants priority consideration from the international community.

Various Links We Read

Democracy assistance to MENA is broadly unpopular – generates the same acrimony as the debt limit debate.

Omar Karmi 8-2, 2011 US argues over foreign aid policy along with its debt problem http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/us-argues-over-foreign-aid-policy-along-with-its-debt-problem

With the same acrimony it has debated the

AND

terrorist organisation participate in government in any way.

Budget battles make cuts to democracy assistance the only political palatable option. Taking away grandma’s Medicare to pay for the plan doesn’t play well at home.

McLaughlin 11 (Seth, writer for Washington Diplomat, April 26, "Key foreign policy players try to master capitol hill," www.washdiplomat.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=7829:key-foreign-policy-players-try-to-master-capitol-hill&catid=1473:may-2011&Itemid=471)

Though the State Department and foreign operations budget

AND

on their constituents back in their home districts.

House hates state department spending – they see it as trading off with defense spending – plan causes big fight.

The Hill 9-7-11 Senate appropriators draw 2012 battle lines over programs to cut http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/180079-senate-appropriators-draw-2012-battle-lines-over-programs-to-cut

Senate appropriators on Wednesday approved a broad spending

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State cuts and more Defense spending this fall.

The debate over democracy assistance will spill over – Even if the funding is appropriated already Congress will still backlash on other issues.

Theo Emery 8/23/11  “Congress could resist additional aid to Libya” Boston Globe http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/08/congress-could-resist-additional-aid-libya/DMmIHbENjJ0A6QBAednf0M/index.html

The crux of debate over Libya up until

AND

we going to build in any one time?”

New aid to Egypt causes massive controversy in this political climate.

Omar Karmi 8-2, 2011 US argues over foreign aid policy along with its debt problem http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/us-argues-over-foreign-aid-policy-along-with-its-debt-problem

In a speech in May, President Barack

AND

into modernity, democracy and rule of law."

Aid to Egypt is controversial—politicians have tolerated small amounts but lawmakers want to trim the deficit

Jeremy Sharp 8/23/2011 (Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs for the Congressional Research Service, "Egypt in Transition" http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33003.pdf)

Although the Egyptian government has expressed its gratitude

AND

of the private sector in Egypt and Tunisia).

Assistance in Syria is unpopular –seen as more waste of intervention in the Middle East.

Joshua Landis 8/24/11 Director: Center for Middle East Studies and Associate Professor, University of Oklahoma Washington's battle over Syria http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/24/washingtons-battle-over-syria/

The realists argue that the U.S

AND

. should not be trying to decide it.

Bipartisan opposition to Democracy assistance to Libya.

Theo Emery 8/23/11  “Congress could resist additional aid to Libya” Boston Globe http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/08/congress-could-resist-additional-aid-libya/DMmIHbENjJ0A6QBAednf0M/index.html

After protests erupted in Libya early this year

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plus we can’t afford it,” Frank said.

The debate over intervention in Libya will spill over – Even if the funding is appropriated already Congress will still backlash on other issues.

Theo Emery 8/23/11  “Congress could resist additional aid to Libya” Boston Globe http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/08/congress-could-resist-additional-aid-libya/DMmIHbENjJ0A6QBAednf0M/index.html

The crux of debate over Libya up until

AND

we going to build in any one time?”

SKFTA

SKFTA will pass now – proper deals are tentatively in place

Yonhap News Agency, 9/15/11, “Geithner 'more confident' about ratification of FTAs” http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/09/15/13/0301000000AEN20110915000100315F.HTML

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner 

AND 

Korea, Colombia and Panama," he said.

B. Link - Democracy assistance to MENA is broadly unpopular – tied to debt debate

Omar Karmi 8-2, 2011 US argues over foreign aid policy along with its debt problem http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/us-argues-over-foreign-aid-policy-along-with-its-debt-problem

With the same acrimony it has debated the 

AND 

terrorist organisation participate in government in any way.

C. Obama leverage is needed to pass the FTAs in order to make sure they don’t fall through the cracks.

Inside US Trade 8/18/11 http://insidetrade.com/Inside-US-Trade/Inside-U.S.-Trade-08/19/2011/with-fta-path-forward-still-unclear-quick-action-needed-in-the-fall/menu-id-710.html

If Congress and the White House are to 

AND 

"fall through the cracks" in September.

Kills alliance

Chi-dong 8/30 (Lee, Yonhap, “(LEAD) Severe damage to alliance expected if FTA fails: CRS” 8/30/11 http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/08/30/52/0301000000AEN20110830000400315F.HTML)

WASHINGTON, Aug. 29 (Yonhap) 

AND 

to $11.9 billion a year.

Alliance is critical to Prevent Korean war.

Pritchard et al, 09 – President of the Korea Economic Institute (Charles L, 6/16. With John H. Tilelli Jr., Chairman and CEO, Cypress International, and Scott A. Snyder, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Korea Studies, CFR. “A New Chapter for U.S.-South Korea Alliance.” Council on Foreign Relations. http://www.cfr.org/publication/19635/new_chapter_for_ussouth_korea_alliance.html)

While all eyes have been trained on North 

AND 

persuade China to put pressure on North Korea.

Korean conflict Goes nuclear and triggers every impact.

Hayes and Green, 10 - *Victoria University AND **Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute (Peter and Michael, “-“The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, 1/5, 

http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf)

The consequences of failing to address the proliferation 

AND 

that warrants priority consideration from the international community.

1NC Leverage CP

Text: The Republic of Turkey should sanction Syrian energy exports

Turkey is key to pressure Syria

Larison, Ph.D history, contributing editor, American conservative, 8/19/11 (Daniel, "America's Limited Leverage in Syria," http://theweek.com/article/index/218428/americas-limited-leverage-in-syria)

Turkey is the one actor in the region 

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governments and an unknown number of Syrians desire.

1NC K

The affirmative’s conflation of the conditions of the existence of state institutions with the conditions of the possibility of Democracy perpetuates violent repression and militarism crushing radical experiences of true democracy

Wall 11 (DrIllanRua Wall is a senior lecturer of Law at the University of Oxford Brookes, “Anger and Indignation in Ireland, Greece and Tunisia,” 7/4/11 http://greekleftreview.wordpress.com/2011/07/04/anger-and-indignation-in-ireland-greece-and-tunisia/)

The first thing to note, in the 

AND 

This is the same relation that pacifies Ireland.

The political order of including and excluding people is part of the larger system that designates whole populations as disposable – this underlies violence globally.

Balibar, ‘4 (Professor of Philosophy, Etienne, We, The People of Europe?, p.125-30)

In such conditions, we can incline toward 

AND 

of equality, the horizon of political action.

Our alternative is the subjectivization of the streets - Vote negative to continue the refusal of representation  – only anger and indignation can provide the starting point for genuine democratization

Wall 11 (Dr Illan Rua Wall is a senior lecturer of Law at the University of Oxford Brookes, “Anger and Indignation in Ireland, Greece and Tunisia,” 7/4/11 http://greekleftreview.wordpress.com/2011/07/04/anger-and-indignation-in-ireland-greece-and-tunisia/

In conclusion, anger and indignation provide the 

AND 

the subjectivisation of the streets that has effect.

A2- Proxy War Adv.

No Mid East escalation:

(a) No regional spillover 

Steven A. Cook (fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations) Ray Takeyh (fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations) and Suzanne Maloney (senior fellow at Saban Center) June 28 ’7 “Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune

Finally, there is no precedent for Arab 

AND 

local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East.

(b) No global spillover 

Dr. Gwynne Dyer (lecturer on international affairs) October 21 ‘1 “The World Turned Upside Down?”, International Affairs, http://peernet.lbpc.ca/thelink/102502/04IntAffDyer.html

How bad could it get? Very bad

AND 

. Things are actually changing for the better.

(c) Empirical proof

Kevin Drum September 9 200’7 The Washington Monthly, “The Chaos Hawks”

Needless to say, this is nonsense. 

AND 

war for a decade. No regional conflagration.

One in three billion chance of nuclear terror

John Mueller 10, professor of political science at Ohio State University, Calming Our Nuclear Jitters, Issues in Science & Technology, Winter2010, Vol. 26, Issue 2

In contrast to these predictions, terrorist groups 

AND 

terrorist group might be infiltrated by foreign intelligence.

Heg not solve war –

A. No threats require primacy and other factors ensure security.

Friedman and Preble 10 (Benjamin Friedman is a research fellow in defense and homeland security studies at the Cato Institute, Christopher Preble is director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, Budgetary Savings from Military Restraint, September 22, 2010 Cato Policy Analysis No. 667 September 23, 2010 http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/PA667.pdf

The United States confuses what it wants from 

AND 

is a game not worth the candle.56

A2- Credibility Adv.

Solvency takes years and multiple policies.

Sullivan ‘4  (Paul, Professor of Economics at the National Defense University and a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, 5-13-2004 “Why America is not Safer” http://www.apomie.com/notsafer.htm)

Going on TV to sell the U.

AND 

not a choice; it is a requirement.

Alt causes –

A. UN vote on Palestine.

Dorsey 8/24 (James D, Senior fellow at RSIS, Nanyang Technological University, "US and the Middle East: PR fiasco looms for Obama," http://www.hpu.edu/CHSS/History/PapersCommentariesStudies/RSISCommentaryUSandtheMiddleEast.pdf)

While the US veto will prevent Palestine from 

AND 

outreach efforts towards the Arab and Muslim world.

B. Bahrain – bigger issue than the plan.

Hitlerman, 9-8-11 (Deputy Program Director for Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/08/washingtons-leverage-over-bahrain/)

Washington retains real leverage over the regime. 

AND 

supporters and the opposition to show the way.

C. Engagement with Iran.

Barry Rubin 4/15/2010 (writer for the rector of the Global Research in International Affairs. “Obama been weak and lost credibility over Iran?”http://www.weeklyblitz.net/665/obama-been-weak-and-lost-credibility-over-iran) 

First, Obama's total failure to implement increased 

AND 

over unrest in an Arabic-speaking state.

SKFTA

SKFTA will pass now – proper deals are tentatively in place

Yonhap News Agency, 9/15/11, “Geithner 'more confident' about ratification of FTAs” http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/09/15/13/0301000000AEN20110915000100315F.HTML

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner 

AND 

Korea, Colombia and Panama," he said.

B. Link - Democracy assistance to MENA is broadly unpopular – tied to debt debate

Omar Karmi 8-2, 2011 US argues over foreign aid policy along with its debt problem http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/us-argues-over-foreign-aid-policy-along-with-its-debt-problem

With the same acrimony it has debated the 

AND 

terrorist organisation participate in government in any way.

C. Obama leverage is needed to pass the FTAs in order to make sure they don’t fall through the cracks.

Inside US Trade 8/18/11 http://insidetrade.com/Inside-US-Trade/Inside-U.S.-Trade-08/19/2011/with-fta-path-forward-still-unclear-quick-action-needed-in-the-fall/menu-id-710.html

If Congress and the White House are to 

AND 

"fall through the cracks" in September.

Kills alliance

Chi-dong 8/30 (Lee, Yonhap, “(LEAD) Severe damage to alliance expected if FTA fails: CRS” 8/30/11 http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/08/30/52/0301000000AEN20110830000400315F.HTML)

WASHINGTON, Aug. 29 (Yonhap) 

AND 

to $11.9 billion a year.

Alliance is critical to Prevent Korean war.

Pritchard et al, 09 – President of the Korea Economic Institute (Charles L, 6/16. With John H. Tilelli Jr., Chairman and CEO, Cypress International, and Scott A. Snyder, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Korea Studies, CFR. “A New Chapter for U.S.-South Korea Alliance.” Council on Foreign Relations. http://www.cfr.org/publication/19635/new_chapter_for_ussouth_korea_alliance.html)

While all eyes have been trained on North 

AND 

persuade China to put pressure on North Korea.

Korean conflict Goes nuclear and triggers every impact.

Hayes and Green, 10 - *Victoria University AND **Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute (Peter and Michael, “-“The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, 1/5, 

http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf)

The consequences of failing to address the proliferation 

AND 

that warrants priority consideration from the international community.

1NC- Saudi Arabia DA (Econ/Oil Prices)

US-Saudi relations stable now, but still tense over the subject of democratization  

Laura Rozen 9/6/2011 (Writer for the Envoy, "Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah Sends Private Message to Obama" http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/envoy/saudi-arabia-king-abdullah-sends-private-message-obama-210619462.html)

The former U.S. officials did 

AND 

because the trip has not yet been announced.

US backing off on Bahraini democracy now—plan alters that—tanks relations 

Karen Leigh 6/8/2011 (Writer for TIME, "The US and Bahrain: How to Talk Just Tough Enough with an Ally" http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2076559,00.html)

Coming after Obama lashed out at Bahrain's violent 

AND 

inclusive exercise that leads to genuine political reform."

US action in Bahrain has unique ability to determine Saudi Arabia’s reaction and global oil prices—collapse of oil in this scenario would cause economic collapse, global draw in, and the trigger of every impact. 

Bruce Abramson 3/9/2011 (PhD Columbia, JD Georgetown, President of Informationism, Inc a San Francisco-based consultancy firm. "Bahrain, The Saudi/Iranian Proxy War, and the Future of the Oil Market" http://www.theinformationist.com/the-informationist/2011/03/bahrain-the-saudiiranian-proxy-war-and-the-future-of-the-oil-market.html)

Though not widely recognized as such, the 

AND 

today through the little island nation of Bahrain.

Nuclear war—extinction. 

Walter Russell Mead 2009 (Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow in US Foreign Policy—Council on Foreign Relations, The New Republic) 

For billions of people in nuclear-armed countries to emerge from this crisis believing either that the United States was indifferent to their well-being or that it had profited from their distress could damage U.S. foreign policy far more severely than any mistake made by George W. Bush. It's not just the great powers whose trajectories have been affected by the crash. Lesser powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran also face new constraints. 

Continues

Bad economic times can breed wars. Europe 

AND 

track, we may still have to fight.

1NC- Turkey CP

Text: The Republic of Turkey should substantially increase its democracy assistance for Bahrain by providing material support to civil society organizations in Bahrain.

Turkey solves best—closes hierarchy gap of western aid, better communication, and more flexible policies. 

Kemal Kirisci 3/4/2011 (Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Boğaziçi University, Turkey’s “Demonstrative Effect” and the Transformation of the Middle East” http://www.insightturkey.com/Insight_Turkey_Volume_13_Number_2_2011_Kemal_Kirisci.pdf) 

The most potent demonstrative effect may be that 

AND 

“we are in it together” develops.

First Advantage

No Iran War—

No miscalc or war.

China Daily, ‘8

Military conflicts unlikely' Analysts believe the incident is 

AND 

Gulf in the near term," he said.

Empirically no escalation of US-Iran war

Cordesman, '7 (Total Badass & CSIS, 2-17, http://www.harpers.org/archive/2007/02/sb-war-with-iran-3-1171549349 )

There is no evidence that the United States 

AND 

did not lead to any type of escalation.

Checks in system prevent escalation.

Boroujerdi & Fine, ‘7 [Mehrzad, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program at Syracuse University, and Todd, graduate student in International Relations at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University, 57 Syracuse L. Rev. 619]

The potential for groupthink miscalculations is also thwarted 

AND 

a boldly offensive or miscalculated action less realistic.

No regional prolif—causes an aggressive enforcement of the NPT on other countries.

Posen, 06 (International Professor of Political Science -- MIT, 12-6, http://www.tcf.org/publications/internationalaffairs/posen_nuclear-armed.pdf)

Alternatively, Iran’s weapons success will cause some 

AND 

technologies that nonnuclear weapon member states can pursue. 

No Mid East escalation:

(a) No regional spillover 

Steven A. Cook (fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations) Ray Takeyh (fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations) and Suzanne Maloney (senior fellow at Saban Center) June 28 ’7 “Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune

Finally, there is no precedent for Arab 

AND 

local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East.

(b) No global spillover 

Dr. Gwynne Dyer (lecturer on international affairs) October 21 ‘1 “The World Turned Upside Down?”, International Affairs, http://peernet.lbpc.ca/thelink/102502/04IntAffDyer.html

How bad could it get? Very bad

AND 

. Things are actually changing for the better.

(c) Empirical proof

Kevin Drum September 9 200’7 The Washington Monthly, “The Chaos Hawks”

Needless to say, this is nonsense. 

AND 

war for a decade. No regional conflagration.

1NC- Fifth Fleet Advantage 

Kick out good—5^th fleet prevents transition by shielding oppressive actors. 

Toby Jones 6/10/2011 (Assistant Professor of History at Rutgers University, “Time to Disband the Bahrain-Based US Fifth Fleet” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-based-us-fifth-fleet/240243/1/)

American officials are, of course, well 

AND 

patrons in the U.S. military.

No risk of impacts—other regional checks—they’re based on outdated security ideals 

Toby Jones 6/10/2011 (Assistant Professor of History at Rutgers University, “Time to Disband the Bahrain-Based US Fifth Fleet” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-based-us-fifth-fleet/240243/1/)

It's time for the Fifth Fleet to go

AND 

seen its military commitments to the region intensify. 

Defense treaty solves—secretly negotiated to ensure other military checks 

Anna Fifield and Camilla Hall 9/1/2011 (Writers for the Financial Times, "US and Bahrain Secretly Extended Defence Deal" http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6bdc0118-d40b-11e0-b7eb-00144feab49a.html#axzz1XCzD5dib)

The US and Bahrain secretly extended their defense 

AND 

Bahraini companies to bid for some Pentagon contracts.

Basing politics wrong—puts the US in a no-win situation 

Alexander Cooley and Daniel Nexon 4/5/2011 (Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, and Associate Professor in the School of Foriegn Service and Government at Georgetown, "Bahrain's Base Politics" http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#)

Further complicating base politics are transnational political movements

AND 

to throw its autocratic friends under the bus. 

Assign terror impacts zero weight – 

A. Al Qaeda wrecked now, WMD terrorism is impossible, and all of your evidence is empirically disproven scare-mongering.

Mueller, 8-2-11 (Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies, Mershon Center

Professor of Political Science, Foreign Affairs)

The chief lesson of 9/11 should 

AND 

the future. No elephants there, either.

 ( ) No nuclear terror -- 

One in three billion chance.

John Mueller 10, professor of political science at Ohio State University, Calming Our Nuclear Jitters, Issues in Science & Technology, Winter2010, Vol. 26, Issue 2

In contrast to these predictions, terrorist groups 

AND 

terrorist group might be infiltrated by foreign intelligence.

B. No Muslim support for radicalism and current security efforts solve – Arab Spring and collapse of Al Qaeda proves.

Gerges, August ’11 (Fawaz Gerges is so qualified, it’s stupid. Fellow at ISPU, director of the Middle East Centre at the London School of Economics and Political Science and author of The Rise and Fall of Al-Qaeda, Gerges has taught at Oxford, Harvard, and Columbia, and was a research scholar at Princeton and chairholder (the Christian A. Johnson Chair in Middle Eastern Studies and International Affairs) at Sarah Lawrence College, New York. Gerges has been the recipient of MacArthur, Fullbright and Carnegie fellowships, http://www.ispu.org/pdfs/ISPUPolicy%20Brief45GergesWEB.pdf)

Al-Qaeda still has a hold over 

AND 

transnational jihad of the al-Qaeda variety.

Third Advantage

Continued operation of Guantanamo crushes US HR leadership – it’s a pre-requisite to solvency

Gauss 4/22/11 (Peter Gauss, Global Affairs Magazine, http://globalaffairsmag.com/2011/04/can-the-united-states-close-guantanamo/)

Gitmo prisoners are not gassed or executed, 

AND 

the world in a commitment to human rights.

Can’t solve—hardliners blocking 

Toby Jones 6/10/2011 (Assistant Professor of History at Rutgers University, “Time to Disband the Bahrain-Based US Fifth Fleet” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-based-us-fifth-fleet/240243/1/)

Whatever opening there was for real dialogue in 

AND 

of others have been sacked from their jobs. 

democracy assistance causes Iranian rise and Saudi intervention

Jonathan Schanzer May 2011 (former intelligence analyst at the U.S. Treasury, is a vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "Achieving the Impossible" http://spectator.org/archives/2011/05/16/achieving-the-impossible/2)

A case in point is the tiny Persian 

AND 

. Both are reasons to prevent Hamad's overthrow.

Democracy fails—alt causes like ethnic tensions 

CATO, 6/10/11 (Hadar, Leon, "This Is a Struggle for Power, Not Arab Spring," http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=13183)

The Sunnis in Bahrain (backed by the 

AND 

But it will still be their own narrative.