Case
Direct US military involvement undermines Yemeni governance and strengthens the insurgency.
Edwards ’10 (Haley, Global Post, http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/middle-east/100119/al-qaeda-training-camp?page=0,1, 5/30)
There is powerful opposition to U.S
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support them — they will join their side.”
Targeted killings and preemptive action alienate the local populace and fail to hamper AQAP.
Knoetgen ’11 (Peter, Captain in the US Naval Reserve, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil,” Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, 5/16, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil)
Some policy makers will criticise a police-
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previously, such a presence would prove counterproductive.
AQAP will enable piracy and cut off the Red Sea.
Guzansky et al ’11 (Yoel, Gallia Lindenstrauss, and Jonathan Schachter, Research Associates at the Institute for National Security Studies, “Power, Pirates, and Petroleum: Maritime Chokepoints in the Middle East,” Strategic Assessment, Volume 14, Number 2, July 2011, http://www.cbrne-terrorism-newsletter.com/resources/INSS%20-%20Strategic%20Assessment%20July_2011.pdf)
Though states’ interests in the Red Sea area
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of these states are a widely shared interest.
The impact is a loss of 80% of Middle East oil.
Guzansky et al ’11 (Yoel, Gallia Lindenstrauss, and Jonathan Schachter, Research Associates at the Institute for National Security Studies, “Power, Pirates, and Petroleum: Maritime Chokepoints in the Middle East,” Strategic Assessment, Volume 14, Number 2, July 2011, http://www.cbrne-terrorism-newsletter.com/resources/INSS%20-%20Strategic%20Assessment%20July_2011.pdf)
There are numerous strategic ramifications to transport in
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total imports and exports pass through the port.
Nuclear wars for access to oil
Qasem ‘7 (Islam Yasin Qasem, a doctoral candidate in the Department of Politics and Social Sciences at the University of Pompeu Fabra (UPF) in Barcelona, MA in International Affairs from Columbia, July 9, 2007, “The Coming Warfare of Oil Shortage,” online: http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_islam_ya_ 070709_the_coming_warfare_o. htm)
Recognizing the strategic value of oil for their
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weapons in pursues of national interests are high.
A2 EU CP
3. EU doesn’t solve – unable to conform policy to Yemeni culture.
Burke ‘10 (Edward, Researcher at FRIDE “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Yemen” Fride, http://www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Yemen_ENG_jul10.pdf)
A major donor weakness identified by interviewees was
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to address the roots of its internal conflicts.
10. US action is key to strengthen our intelligence operations and prevent attacks against the United States.
Knoetgen ’11 (Peter, Captain in the US Naval Reserve, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil,” Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, 5/16, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil)
Yemen has rampant economic problems. By almost
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hand over all their information without reciprocal assistance.
A2 Budget DA
US security aid to Yemen now – takes out the link.
LA Times 9/15/11 (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-yemen-intel-20110915,0,6851490.story)
The embattled regime in Yemen has boosted its
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heavy losses from CIA-launched missile strikes.
( ) No link – plan comes out of the already budgeted regional response fund.
McInerney, '11 (Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)
Transitions in the Middle East are a top
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Syria, Libya, Yemen, or elsewhere.
( ) No Link – Plan’s a trade off –
A. Millions are already appropriated for Yemen now but not spent.
Malta Independent, 9/1/11 (http://www.independent.com.mt/news.asp?newsitemid=131301)
The Pentagon had planned to spend at least
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and an increasingly threatening al-Qaeda affiliate.
B. FY2011 budget bill gives discretion to Obama to make cuts – they’d take existing appropriations to fund the plan.
McInerney, July '11 (Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)
To begin with, there are three major
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begin the FY12 appropriations process on July 27.
( ) Economic decline not cause war --
A. Empirically denied – recession.
Barnett, senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC, 8/25/200’9, http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules--security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx
When the global financial crisis struck roughly a
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-World War II international liberal trade order.
B. Studies prove.
Miller 2k – Professor of Management, Ottawa (Morris, Poverty As A Cause Of Wars?, http://www.pugwash.org/reports/pac/pac256/WG4draft1.htm, AG)
Thus, these armed conflicts can hardly be
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using one form of violence to abort another.
C. No lashout – relative changes in power don’t cause war.
Deudney, ‘99 (Asst Prof of Poli Sci at Johns Hopkins, Contested Grounds: Security and Conflict in the New Environmental Politics )
Alterations in the relative power of states are
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environmental degradation would be different in their effects.
D. No system wide change – decline not alter power dynamics.
Blackwill 2009 – former associate dean of the Kennedy School of Government and Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Planning (Robert, RAND, “The Geopolitical Consequences of the World Economic Recession—A Caution”, http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP275.pdf, WEA)
First, the United States, five years
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India have adopted their own versions of it.
A2 Saudi Arabia
The plan solves US-Saudi relations – terrorism is the one definitive area of cooperation and it definitely outweighs your link.
Boucek 9/12/11 (Christopher, Associate in the Carnegie Endowment Middle East Program, “Terrorism out of Saudi Arabia,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/09/12/terrorism-out-of-saudi-arabia/53pw#yemen)
Saudi Arabia’s influence and interest in combating terrorists
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both countries recognize the importance of the relationship.
No terrorism impact – eliminating the motive is a pre-requisite – even if Saudi Arabia would provide nuclear weapons, that’s irrelevant because the plan destroys their recruiting base.
Link turn – plan actually reduces threatening US presence in the region – eliminates airstrike strategy and US military footprint.
Relations low now – Bahrain protests and Saudi disapproval of Arab Spring
Shafee 8/5/11, Mamoud, attorney and freelance Middle East analyst based in Washington, D.C. “For Iran, Setbacks Outweigh Gains in Arab Spring”, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9695/for-iran-setbacks-outweigh-gains-in-arab-spring
Next door in Libya, unrest has kept
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that Bahrain's repressed Shiite majority share with Iran.
No impact – Saudi Arabia is realigning with Iran now
Wouk 9/6 (Joseph, JD, Author, Scuds, Duds & Tyre and Google LDN!, “Iran warns over NATO’s anti-missile radar in Turkey” 9/6/11 http://warsclerotic.wordpress.com/)
The conversation between President Barack Obama and Saudi
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3.3 a day for gardening work.
Relations strained – Palestinian state
Fleming, 8/28/11, Eilen, Salem News, “Come September: The UN, Palestine, Israel, Vanunu and a Syrian Connection”, http://www.salem-news.com/articles/august282011/vanunu-video-ef.php
“While making empty promises about dialogue with
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Arab ally is highly unusual.” [2]
NU—Saudi Relations the worst that they have been in a decade
Cooper and Landler ‘11 (Helene and Mark, NY Times, “Interests of Saudi Arabia and Iran Collide, With the U.S. in the Middle” 3/17/11 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/18/world/18diplomacy.html)
WASHINGTON — The brutal crackdown in Bahrain poses
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WikiLeaks as “very Western in his approach.”
China Ux Level
China bashing will fail – it won’t get attached to any bills now
Inside US Trade, 9/15/11 “Marantis Warns Against Senate Amendments To TAA As Potential Threat” http://insidetrade.com/201109152375880/WTO-Daily-News/Daily-News/marantis-warns-against-senate-amendments-to-taa-as-potential-threat/menu-id-173.html
Reid has already said he will consider a
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amendments to the TAA bill in the Senate.
China bashing can’t pass the house – even with co-sponsors, there aren’t enough votes
Inside US Trade 9/13 “Reid Says Senate To Consider China Currency Bill As Separate Measure” http://insidetrade.com/201109132375661/WTO-Daily-News/Daily-News/reid-says-senate-to-consider-china-currency-bill-as-separate-measure/menu-id-173.html
A China currency bill may face an uncertain
AND
pass such a measure began several congresses ago.
Obama won’t spend political capital to stop China bashing – electoral concerns will outweigh
Reuters 9/2/11 “Analysis: Obama's trade legacy in a crucible this fall” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902
Democrats like House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and
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dampen Obama's appetite to lead aggressively on trade.
Politics Link Level
( ) Fiat solves—Obama does not have to push the plan and their link evidence is why he would not spend capital on it; passage of the plan means it has popular support doesn’t need capital
( ) No spillover.
Matthew Dickinson, ’9 Professor of political science at Middlebury College. He taught previously at Harvard University, where he also received his Ph.D., working under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, 5/29, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power” http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/
Despite the much publicized and celebrated instances of
AND
the decision to present Sotomayor as his nominee.
( ) No forced choice—the plan is NOT a necessary cause of the disad and the desirability of _________ is not germane to whether the plan is a good idea—you can vote for both
( ) Winners win.
Green 10 – professor of political science at Hofstra University (David Michael Green, 6/11/10, " The Do-Nothing 44th President ", http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Do-Nothing-44th-Presid-by-David-Michael-Gree-100611-648.html)
Moreover, there is a continuously evolving and
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Thomas, this is precisely what they did.
And, uniqueness goes aff. Obama is pursuing the winners win turn now and he’s got no capital.
(alternate tag: Obama’s a honey badger, he just don’t give a shit.)
Keiler 9/14/11 (CNN White House Correspondent Brianna Keilar, “Obama to GOP: You're either with me, or you're against me.” http://whitehouse.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/14/obama-to-gop-youre-either-with-me-or-youre-against-me/
It's a calculation by Mr. Obama and
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appears the President Obama is going all in.
Counterinsurgency assistance to Yemen is unanimously bipartisan
Scahill ’11 (Jeremy, The Nation, “The Dangerous US Game in Yemen,” 3/30, http://www.thenation.com/article/159578/dangerous-us-game-yemen?page=0,3)
It was the Bush administration that declared the
AND
going to go on for a long time.”
( ) Congress and specifically McCain love the plan.
Al-Azaki 10 (Mohammed, reporter for THE YEMEN POST, "CLOSELY OBSERVING COUNTRY’S SITUATION, US ADMINISTRATION ADVISED TO GIVE HAND TO YEMEN" 4-10-2010. http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=1177&MainCat=6 ) JCP
A US Congress delegation chaired by former Republican
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– including operations by NATO inside Yemeni lands.
Terrorism outweighs their links – biggest issue for Congress.
NewsMax, ’10 (http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/US-Obama-Terror-Politics/2010/01/21/id/347631)
Terrorism is creeping back to the forefront of
AND
issues, but it was already a priority."
And terrorism is the reason why democracy assistance is immune to criticism – dodges your generic links.
Democracy Digest 9/8/11 “9/11 restored bipartisan consensus on strategic value of democracy assistance” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/09/911-restored-bipartisan-consensus-on-strategic-value-of-democracy-assistance/
“The terrorist attack of 9/11
AND
division here at home is worthy of note.”
McCain key – overcomes links.
Adams, CQ Weekly, 8 (Rebecca, 11/8/08 (“CQ Weekly Vantage Point: Farewell or a Future? McCain Still Has Role as Bipartisan Dealmaker,” LN)
A likelier scenario, observers say, is
AND
last years in the Senate reinforcing that image.”
( ) Tea party link non-unique – Obama already infuriated them.
Economic Times 9/13/11 “Obama wants tax breaks ended to pay for $447 billion jobs plan” http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-09-13/news/30149327_1_jobs-plan-support-job-growth-proposal-both-parties
President Barack Obama on Monday proposed paying for
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and led to an unprecedented US credit downgrade.
China Impact Level
No Impact – China can’t sell its holdings – the risk is too big to them as well.
ARTHUR KROEBER 9/7/11 The Renminbi: The Political Economy of a Currencyhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/07/the_renminbi_the_political_economy_of_a_currency?page=full
Before considering the significance of RMB internationalization,
AND
so on -- is a trivial 1 percent.
A2 K
( ) Perm – Do the Aff and the non-competitive parts of the alt.
Perm solves – engaging the institutions of democracy assistance and infusing practice with criticisms of democracy is necessary to solve.
Mandaville & Mandaville 2007 Development (2007) 50, 5–13. doi:10.1057/palgrave.development.1100321 Introduction: Rethinking democratization and democracy assistance Alicia Phillips Mandaville and Peter P Mandaville
We turn now to the question of how
AND
politicized approach to the questions of democratic development.
( ) Framework – Ballot should be between the Aff and competitive policy options. This is best
A. Fairness – The moot 9 minutes of 1AC offense with their framework. We should get to weigh our Aff.
B. Role-playing allows us to critique the state from with in.
Stark, ’96 (Tennessee Associate Law Professor, Winter 32 Stan J Int’L L 91)
Role-playing exercises, in which students
AND
freeing them to explore these questions creatively. 69
( ) Case is a counter-critique – saying we should accept one action to prevent terrorism is a counter-K to the all-or-nothing Alt. Imagining the reality of terrorism, its effects, and possible ways to prevent it is important to addressing it.
Allison, 10 professor of government and director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard (1/25/10, Graham, “A Failure to Imagine the Worst: The first step toward preventing a nuclear 9/11 is believing it could happen,”
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/25/a_failure_to_imagine_the_worst?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full, JMP)
In his first speech to the U.
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action, and relentless determination to pursue it.
( ) Aff outweighs the K:
A. Terrorism studies are epistemologically and methodologically valid---our authors are self-reflexive
Boyle and Horgan 8 – Michael J. Boyle, School of International Relations, University of St. Andrews, and John Horgan, International Center for the Study of Terrorism, Department of Psychology, Pennsylvania State University, April 2008, “A Case Against Critical Terrorism Studies,” Critical Studies On Terrorism, Vol. 1, No. 1, p. 51-64
Jackson (2007c) calls for the development
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produce such scathing indictments of its own work.
B. Al Qaeda is evil and we should suspend critique for them – a critical project doesn’t apply to them.
Derrida ‘03 (Jacques Derrida, Directeurd’Etudes at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales in Paris, and Professor of Philosophy, French and Comparative Literature at the University of California, Irvine, 2003, Philosophy in a Time of Terror, p. 113-114)
Borradori: Earlier you emphasized the essential role
AND
,” at least not one for this world.
C. Terrorism turns your Alt – That’s our impact evidence that the US would lashout. Here’s more – no chance of alt solvency in the world of a terrorist attack.
Ignatieff, '4 (Harvard University, Edmonton Journal, May 9)
It has taken nearly three years, but
AND
we would lose our identity as free peoples.
( ) K can’t solve or turn the Case – Our 1ac is a super specific scenario for AQAP attacks. Even if the K addresses the motivation for most terrorism, they won’t deal with the specific issue AQAP in Yemen. Only our Aff solves this.
Realism is inevitable in the Middle East.
Kaplan 8/28/11 (Robert, Senior at the Center for a New American Security, Financial Times, “Libya, Obama and the triumph of realism,” http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a76d2ab4-cf2d-11e0-b6d4-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1XCqvAMA3)
Realism supposedly died at the end of the
AND
like Mr Obama, seek to wield power.
Self-fulfilling prophecies good and threats are real.
Reifer, ‘2, Georgetown IR Professor, Sept 19-23 www.focusweb.org/publications/2002/geopolitics-globalisationand-alternative-regionalisms.pdf
Many social constructivists fear that treating countries as
AND
where social constructivists get their historical examples from.
Rejecting predictive analysis dooms the alternative solvency.
Chernoff, ‘5
(Poli Sci Prof – Colgate, The Power of International Theory, p. 215)
Various IR theorists have also argued against prediction
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to show how such beliefs can be justified.
The world is realist – we need to engage it.
Mearsheimer, ’95 (Chicago Poli Sci Prof, Winter, International Security, p. 44-5)
Three points are in order regarding the critical
AND
in the five centuries of the feudal era.
Alternative doesn’t solve – rejecting one instance with the ballot does nothing to effect overall change within society, which is what their evidence assumes.
Focusing on ontology/epistemology is reductionist and useless for change.
Owen, ‘2 David Owen, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton, Millennium Vol 31 No 3 2002 p. 655-7
Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR
AND
, and so a potentially vicious circle arises.
No root cause -- Philosophical outcomes do not determine political ones.
Yar, ‘2k (Lecturer at the School of Social Policy, Sociology and Social Research at the University of Kent, January, Cultural Values, Volume 4, Issue 1)
A second, and not unrelated difficulty,
AND
our ailing political life, rather alarmingly wrong.
Alt not solve case -- Solvency delay – Our impacts will happen quickly, your solvency would take a long time if it requires changing mindsets or ideologies.
Tracing violence to an intellectual cause doesn’t mean you solve the proximate cause – political action key.
Megill, ’83 (Iowa History Professor, What should Political Theory be Today, ed. Nelson, pg. 309)
And so I would argue that political theorists
AND
whatever opportunity we have to avert their worsening.
No error replication – at best your K is a partial takeout.
Roe, '94 (Center for Sustainable Resource Development Executive Director, Transition, Issue 64)
The distaste that some critics in the responses
AND
from their critique that everyone must probe further.
Always value to life—obligation to prevent death.
Bernstein ‘2 (Richard J., Vera List Prof. Phil. – New School for Social Research, “Radical Evil: A Philosophical Interrogation”, p. 188-192)
This is precisely what Jonas does in The
AND
objects of your will." (IR 11)
Their inevitability claim is overdetermination- specific factors and explanations outweigh
Scott D Sagan, prof of Poli Sci Stanford, ACCIDENTAL WAR IN THEORY AND PRACTICE 2-8-‘2k www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/trachtenberg/cv/sagan.doc
To make reasonable judgements in such matters
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neither inevitable nor overdetermined during the Cold War.
Changing representational practices won’t alter policy—looking to structures and politics is more vital
Tuathail, ‘96 (Gearoid, Department of Georgraphy at Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Political Geography, 15(6-7), p. 664, science direct)
While theoretical debates at academic conferences are important
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to the patterned mess that is human history.
Nuclear war makes their impacts inevitable and jacks alt solvency.
Martin ‘82(Brian, Associate professor in Science, Technology and Society — U of Wollongong, Bulletin of Peace Proposals, v 13, n2, p. 149-159, http:/!www.uow.edu.au/arts/sts/bmartin/pubs/82bpp.htrnl)
In addition to the important physical effects of
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peace movements of the world are largely unprepared.
