Iowa » Haggerty Klemme Aff

Haggerty Klemme Aff

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    • Tournament: UNI | Round: 1 | Opponent: KCKCC | Judge: Nickel


    • Inherency

      Assad will not start a regime-led transition to democracy and the regime won’t disintegrate on its own—action now is key
      Michael S. Doran and Salman Shaikh 2011 June 22 Michael S. Doran is senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution. Salman Shaikh is director of the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy. Getting Serious in Syria http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1001 

      The Syrian status quo, whatever is left
      AND
      cling to power to the bitter end.

      Currently the Obama administration refuses to support Syrian opposition groups based on misconceptions that Assad is reforming
      Puder, Joesph, 8/17/11, Front Page Magazine writer, “Snubbing the Real Syrian Democratic Movement”
      Yahoo News reported on August 2, 2011
      AND
      it with $111 million for fiscal 2012.  

      Regime collapse will be slow and violent; fast U.S. action to get Assad to step down now is key.
      Michael S. Doran and Salman Shaikh 2011 June 22 Michael S. Doran is senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution. Salman Shaikh is director of the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy. Getting Serious in Syria http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1001 

      Consequently, we should expect the regime to
      AND
      Assad to go, and to go soon.

      Plantext

      The United States federal government should provide all necessary democracy assistance that is requested by the Syrian National Council of opposition groups. 

      Heg 

      US failure to take the lead now is causing bureaucratic disconnect and international lack of clarity  
      Rogin, Josh, 8/16/11, Foreign Policy Magazine, “Why has Obama not called for Hassad to go yet?”

      Turkey's last ditch attempt at dialogue with the
      AND
      bigger mistake than not saying Assad must go."

      Failure to support regime change in Syria is causing international backlash, killing US Soft Power – action now is key
      Schake, Kori, 8/19/11, “The kind of world Secretary Clinton wants to see”, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/19/the_kind_of_world_secretary_clinton_wants_to_see

      America's Secretary of State gave a stunning interview
      AND
      power and the Obama administration's approach are working?
      And other international agents agree the US is the ONLY actor who can put pressure on the regime
      Kessler 8/18/11, Oren,  Jpost journalist, “Turkey: Syrian situation may become Libya-style civil war”, http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=234226

      Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan compared the
      AND
      not Asia, not the UN Security Council.

      Plan is key to US credibility
      Ali Younes 8-1-11 writer and political analyst based in Washington DC. http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2011/08/01/160292.html

      Throughout the crises in Syria the US administration
      AND
      standing up to the bloody dictator of Damascus.

      This is key to maintaining soft power – the US has to create action against Syria in order to foster cooperation against bad government in the ME – this is turn restores credibility
      Schake, Kori, 8/19/11, “The kind of world Secretary Clinton wants to see”, http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/19/the_kind_of_world_secretary_clinton_wants_to_see

      America's Secretary of State gave a stunning interview
      AND
      power and the Obama administration's approach are working?

      Mid East cred is the litmus test for the future of US leadership.
      Phillips, '10 (Writer and analyst of Middle Eastern Affairs, 5-31, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/31/us-hegemony-middle-east-ending)

      While the Bush era saw the US hegemonic
      AND
      hegemony in the Middle East could be ending.

      American power stops conflict in every region, keeps trade moving, stops terrorists, and prolif – hegemony is inevitable the question is whether or not other nations let America use it effectively
      Kagan 11 contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, Robert, “The Price of Power”, 1-24, Vol. 16, No. 18, http://www.weeklystandard.com/print/articles/price-power_533696.html,

      Today the international situation is also one of
      AND
      system that American power has built and defended. 

      Syrian Stability

      Opposition groups fragmented now – creating communication through different types of opposition groups is key to stop the refugee crisis and sectarian violence
      Allen 9/2/11, Michael,  Editor of Democracy Digest, “Can Syria’s Opposition Unite?”, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/09/can-syrias-opposition-unite/

      Many Syrian-based activists are wary of
      AND
      Syria and Iraq, it is already happening.”
      Assad has been weakened internationally – he’ll lashout in order to keep power
      Robbins, James, 8/18/11, BBC News Diplomatic correspondent, “Syria unrest: Why the world has waited so long”, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14579756

      The US and its allies still rule out
      AND
      is the Assad family which represents present danger.

      Assad regime is pushing sectarian conflicts as a way of control – this spillovers throughout the Middle East and causes Syrian and regional instabiliy
      Nasr, 8/27/11, Vali, NY Times journalist, “If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly”, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

      Syria today stands at the edge of such
      AND
      pressure the Assad government not to inflame sectarian tensions

      U.S. support for democratization in Syria is necessary to prevent suppression of the uprising or all out civil war
      John Hannah 5-11-11 Obama and Syria: Courting Disaster http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/05/11/obama_and_syria_courting_disaster

      Instead, the administration needs quickly to move
      AND
      very raison d'etre is ensuring the regime's survival. 

      Syrian instability generates Israel-Syria war that the whole region gets drawn into, Iran proxy war the use of CBW weapons, and Israeli strikes
      Ceren, Omri, 8/1/11, Commentary Magazine, “Just How Bad Could a Syrian
      Collapse Get?
      But the continued stability of the Syrian regime
      AND
      productive that strategy may turn out to be.

      Israel strikes causes economic collapse, great power draw in, and extinction
      Reuveny ‘10 (Rafael Reuveny is a professor in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University. “Israel and Iran: a unilateral strike could trigger World War III” The Nation McClatchy-Tribune Information Services August 6, 2010)

      A unilateral Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities
      AND
      Israeli strike could ultimately spark World War III.
      Solvency
      And the U.S. is uniquely key – Obama’s background makes him in a position of power to promote democracy to the Arab Spring that other agents can’t access – letting them decide what democracy assistance they want is the only thing that solves
      Gerecht 9/1/11, a former CIA officer, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the author of “The Wave: Man, God, and the Ballot Box in the Middle East.”
      http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-american liberator/2011/09/01/gIQA3e5HvJ_story.html

      Libya was not a robust showing of liberal
      AND
      It may do the same for Barack Obama. 

      National council unification spurs the business communities to regime change – they are specifically key to bringing down the regime due to geographical location, high income, and larger number against pro Assad business supporters
      Slim, 8/5/11, Randa, “Where’s Syria’s business community”, Foreign Policy Magazine, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/05/wheres_syrias_business_community

      The decision by the U.S.
      AND
      of economic system they want to see established.
      The international community is key to help sustain basic governance and economic recovery – now’s key based on military support – solves religious violence
      Democracy Digest, 8/30/11, “Libya’s Lessons for Syrian Opposition?”, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/08/libyan-lessons-for-syria%E2%80%99s-opposition/

      With Syrian army defections reportedly on the rise
      AND
      basic governance, and reviving the economy.” .
      And international community should set up a political alternative that protects minorities – key to Assad collapse
      Al Toraifi 8/12/11, Adel, Al Arabiya, “Adel Al Toraifi: Syria on the road of chaos”, http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2011/08/12/161931.html

      If the international community is concerned about Syria
      AND
      [Baathist] party and sectarian [elements].

      Unifying and creating good governance and stability key – any other action will fail
      Harling, 8/30/11, Peter, Foreign Policy Magazine, “How not to prolong the Syrian agony”, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/30/how_not_to_prolong_the_syrian_agony

      The second mistake to be avoided is for
      AND
      the protest movement's coattails but in complementing it.  

      Unified approach solves the transition- presents an alternative to the regime through lack of discrimination based on sectarian violence
      Hassan, 8/28/11, Hassan, The National, “Syria's opposition has failed to offer a viable alternative”, http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/syrias-opposition-has-failed-to-offer-a-viable-alternative?pageCount=2

      The regime has also been careful not to
      AND
      Mr Al Assad will simply prolong his regime.
      And successful coalition garners international support – gets regional leaders on board to embrace new government
      Souaiaia 8/29/11, Ahmed, teaches a variety of courses in College of Law, International Programs, and Religious Studies at the University of Iowa, “Syria’s opposition groups establish a national transition council”, http://www.examiner.com/international-affairs-in-national/syria-s-opposition-groups-establish-a-national-transition-council

      If the protesters embrace one of the new
      AND
      too, will certainly meet the same fate.
      Alternative government is the biggest threat to Assad – he will fall with a unified opposition – Libya proves
      National Council 8/24/11, Syria opposition must learn from Libya's council, http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/editorial/syria-opposition-must-learn-from-libyas-council

      The one lesson that Syrians must learn from
      AND
      . Only then will his regime surely crumble.

      And a national council will be able to provide a smooth transition – no terrorist coup or transition war – 80% of the opposition are on board
      EuroNews, 8/24/11, “Syrian opposition established National Council”, http://www.euronews.net/2011/08/24/syrian-opposition-established-national-council/

      Syrian opposition is very close to have its
      AND
      the end in process of establishing a leadership.”



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