Round2AC Case
No impact to the Chinese economy and the response measures check
Coonan 08 (10/25, Clifford, IrishTimes.com, “China's stalling boom has globe worried,” http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2008/1025/1224838827729.html)
All of this downbeat news … their eye teeth to be able to present to their constituencies.
The CCP is immune to economic decline
Pei, 09–Senior Associate in the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (Minxin, “Will the Chinese Communist Party Survive the Crisis?,” Foreign Affairs, 3/12,
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64862/minxin-pei/will-the-chinese-communist-party-survive-the-crisis
Economic crisis and social … against the regime.
Can’t solve warming – domestic politics
Hale, 11 - PhD Candidate in the Department of Politics at Princeton University and a Visiting Fellow at LSE Global Governance, London School of Economics (Thomas, “A Climate Coalition of the Willing,” Washington Quarterly, Winter, http://www.twq.com/11winter/docs/11winter_Hale.pdf
Intergovernmental efforts to limit … not in the near future.
Consensus of experts agree no impact to warming
Hsu 10
Jeremy, Live Science Staff, July 19, pg. http://www.livescience.com/culture/can-humans-survive-extinction-doomsday-100719.html
His views deviate sharply from those … of water and change crop yields, so we're essentially doing an experiment whose result remains uncertain."
Warming doesn’t risk extinction – historical resilience to environmental crises and their theories are ecopessimist
Fettweis 11
Christopher, Professor of Political Science @ Tulane, Dangerous Times?: The International Politics of Great Power Peace, pg. 127-128
It should go without saying that the … pass suggests that even resource wars may, like all other forms, be all but obsolete.
Can’t solve warming even if we stopped all emissions today
ANI 10
3-2010, http://news.oneindia.in/2010/03/20/ipcchas-underestimated-climate-change-impacts-sayscientis.html
According to Charles H. Greene, ..unlikely to mitigate the risks of dangerous climate change," said Green.
No renewables – the price threshold is too high
Kho 11 – Jennifer, Renewable Energy World, “What High Gas Prices Mean for Renewable Energy,” 5-31, online: http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/05/what-high-gas-prices-mean-for-renewable-energy
The question remains: Why is this spike … vehicles, a price we're unlikely to see soon. Companies developing new vehicle technologies likely hope to prove him wrong.
Loose weapons fuels attacks on Israel in the Sinai
Laub, 11/8
(AP World Politics Reporter, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/nov/8/arms-control-in-libya/?page=all#pagebreak)
In the vacuum, the weapons chaos … more porous.
Sinai instability goes nuclear
Zitun 9/5/11
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4118220,00.html
staff writer, quoting Senior IDF officer
IDF general: Likelihood of …, Eisenberg's remarks were approved for publication by censorship officials.
2AC – PRIVATE AID CP
Privatized aid fails and undermines US credibility
Dobransky, 11
(Adjunct Professor-Poli Sci-Cleveland State University, http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2011/0104/comm/dobransky_coming.html)
The argument against privatized foreign aid … foreign aid establishment. Just witness the government’s experience with the contractor Blackwater (now, Xe).
Econ downturn means no one donates
Frazier 11 and Lopez-Rivera, 7/24 (Eric and Marisa, Corporate giving slow to recover as economy remains shaky, The Chronicle of Philanthropy, p. http://philanthropy.com/article/Big-Businesses-Won-t/128327/, 7/24)
The Chronicle’s findings reflect … good causes as cash has become tighter.
CP Links to politics—viewed as outsourcing
Mankiw, 7
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2007/10/alternative-to-foreign-aid.html
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2007
An Alternative to Foreign Aid
Justin Muzinich and Eric Werker (… American jobs to third-world sweatshops tax credit."
Fails – local governments can’t keep track
Garrett 9 (Laurie, Senior Fellow for Global Health, CFR, January, “The Future of Foreign Assistance Amid Global Economic and Financial Crisis”, www.cfr.org/global-governance/future-foreign-assistance-amid-global-economic-financial-crisis/p18167)
Beyond the question of what America … versus on-the-ground salary support.
Free-riding means the CP can’t generate enough aid – also doesn’t solve cred
Markovic, 5
Law—Georgetown, http://milanpundit.blogspot.com/2005/01/private-v-public-charity.html
Moreover, Bush's proposal to … an inexcusable abdication of responsibility.
2AC – INDIA CP
Leading from behind sends signals of weakness
Hulett 9/3 (Sue, Richard P. and Sophia D. Henke Distinguished Professor of Political Science and chair of the Political Science Department at Knox College, 2011, “Sue Hulett: Has Obama abandoned global leadership?”, http://www.galesburg.com/newsnow/x1638741805/Sue-Hulett-Has-Obama-abandoned-global-leadership)
We also know a bit more about Obama’s semi-idealist... leadership on behalf of promoting democracy and liberty.
Links to politics
Reuters 11
Reuters, 9/21/11, Obama seeks to ease doubts on global leadership, mobile.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE78K39V20110921
Foreign policy has slipped ... his "leading from behind" approach undermines U.S. global prestige.
India can’t solve – great power interference
Grygiel 11 (Jakub, Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and the George H.W. Bush Associate Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins-SAIS, October 3 , “Great Powers and Democracy Promotion”, http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=319)
Alas, reality is different. Democratization does not occur in... to deal with the potentially dangerous geopolitical consequences of their actions.
Indian relations resilient and no economic/competitivenss impact to decline
Schaffer 10 (Teresita Schaffer, Ambassador Teresita C. Schaffer is director of the South Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, “U.S.-India Initiative Series The United States and India 10 Years Out,” October 2010)
http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_10YearsOut_Schaffer.pdf
India and the United States have transformed their relationship in the ... to China in its approach to Asian security and institutions.
Indian relations low – Pakistan coop
Ganguly and Fidler 11 (Sumit Ganguly, holds the Rabindranath Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations and is a Professor of Political Science at Indiana University in Bloomington, and David P. Fidler, Graduated summa cum laude from the University of Kansas with a bachelor's degree in 1986, Received J.D. cum laude from Harvard Law School, Received a M. Phil. with distinction and a B.C.L. with first class honours from the University of Oxford, Associate, Sullivan & Cromwell, London (1991-1993), Associate, Stinson, Mag & Fizzell, Kansas City (1993-95), Lecturer, University of Oxford (1990-93), “The Definition of Insanity,” 1/12/11) http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/12/the_definition_of_insanity
But this latest attempt to coddle Pakistan in the vain h... maintain its increasingly dangerous gamble with militant Islam.
2AC Russia DA
Obama increased assistance to the Syrian opposition
Rogin 3/6 (Josh Rogin, “Obama administration moves to aid Syrian opposition,” 3/6/12) http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/03/06/obama_administration_moves_to_aid_syrian_opposition
The Obama administration …unaccountable and may have contacts with extremist elements.
Russian leverage destroys EU foreign policy
Cohen, 7
(Ph.D., Heritage Foreign Policy studies Russian and Eurasian Senior Research Fellow, 11/5, "Europe's Strategic Dependence on Russian Energy," http://www.heritage.org/Research/Europe/bg2083.cfm)
From the American perspective, … and stable energy supply and siding with the U.S. on some key issues.
Extinction
Bruton, 1
(Former Irish, PM-October, “joint committee on European affairs, parliament of Ireland,” http://www.irlgov.ie/committees-02/c-european affairs/future/page1.htm)
2.5 As the Laeken Declaration put it, … blind global forces that will otherwise overwhelm us.
AID NOW FOR WEAPONS
Current aid just buys up weapons
Walt 2/21 (Stephen M. Walt, government professor at Harvard, “Drive-by interventionism: Does Libya's fate hold lessons for Syria?” 2/21/12) http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/02/21/drive_by_interventionism
And in the meantime, Libyans … the sense that Libya is taking up much bandwidth in the foreign policy establishment anymore.
Heg solves relations and cooperation
Rumer and Wallander 2003 - *senior fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, **director of the Russia and Eurasia Program and Trustee Fellow at CSIS (Eugene B., Celeste A., Washington Quarterly 27.1, 57-73, Project MUSE,)
Given Russia's geopolitical predicament, … States' international position.
No chance of cooperative relations – Putin
Kuchins 3/1 (Andrew C. Kutchins, senior fellow and the director of the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program “The End of the 'Reset'” 3/1/12) http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137308/andrew-c-kuchins/the-end-of-the-reset?page=show
Putin's latest campaign article, "… for a far more contentious relationship with Moscow. The tandem period could soon look relatively idyllic.
Libya deters ruaai
Bolton 11 (John, Resident Fellow-AEI, 7/21, http://www.aei.org/article/103894)
Russia today is a troublemaker, not ideologically as in the Cold War sense, but as a swaggering, international bully boy. Increasingly reverting to authoritarianism domestically, Vladimir Putin's Russia is, among other things, seeking to … risk of even broader proliferation.
Nuclear war
Blank 9 – Dr. Stephen Blank , Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March 2009, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf
Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia can then deter regional or intercontinental attacks either by denial or by threat of retaliation.168 Given a multipolar world structure with little … neighbors or their own people.172
Other US policies ovewhelm
Noorani 2/4 (A.G. Noorani, “US-Russia differences,” 2/4/12) http://www.dawn.com/2012/02/04/us-russia-differences.html
WHENEVER a nasty incident erupts, … or the crisis with Iran.
2AC JACKSON VANICK
Jackson Vanik won’t pass without measures that piss off russia – Obama lip service, elections, congress
Jatras 3/23 (James George Jatras, Principal, Squire Sanders Public Advocacy, Washington, DC, “Russia Profile Weekly Experts Panel: Will Russia Graduate From the Jackson-Vanik Amendment?” 3/23/12) http://russiaprofile.org/experts_panel/56357/print_edition/
Until very recently, I would have said … Russian retaliatory response under the WTO.
Won’t happen until after the election – Obama has no incentive
Belaeff 3/23 (Vladimir Belaeff, Global Society Institute, San Francisco, CA, “Russia Profile Weekly Experts Panel: Will Russia Graduate From the Jackson-Vanik Amendment?” 3/23/12) http://russiaprofile.org/experts_panel/56357/print_edition/
In the current election year, Obama’s … animation. These factors will influence the fate of the present initiative.
Obama just proposed massive democracy aid package and other spending
Rogers 2/11 (David Rogers, POLICO, “Obama gambles on costly initiatives in new budget,” 2/11/12) http://www.politico.com/reporters/DavidRogers.html
From community colleges at home to … a smaller $2 billion Labor Department program enacted in 2010 — almost as a footnote to health care reform.
EPA rules will ignite firestorm in Congress
Harder, 3/27
Amy, National Journal, Government Executive, http://www.govexec.com/oversight/2012/03/epa-proposes-first-ever-climate-rules/41586/, BJM
The Environmental Protection Agency … energy: It achieves their cap-and-trade agenda through regulation instead of legislation,” Inhofe said at a hearing on Tuesday.
Libya aid empirically popular – NED proves
McInerney 11 (Stephen, Director of Advocacy for the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED). He has more than six years experience in the Middle East and North Africa, including graduate studies of Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the American University of Beirut and the American University in Cairo. His writing on Middle East affairs and U.S. policy has been published by The Washington Post, the Carnegie Endowment’s Arab Reform Bulletin, The Daily Star and The New Republic. He also holds an M.S. in Mathematics from Stanford University "The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012" Project on Middle East Democracy, July 2011 pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/FY2012-Budget-Report-web.pdf)
The National Endowment for Democracy (NED) is a … possible in other Arab countries soon).
GOP loves aid to libya
FoxNews 10-21, “Republicans Push for U.S. Role in Rebuilding Libya”, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/10/21/republicans-push-for-us-role-in-rebuilding-libya/
With Muammar Qaddafi finally out of the … to need a lot of help in that direction.”
Winner’s Win-
Marshall and Prins 11 (BRYAN W, Miami University and BRANDON C, University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”, Sept, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3)
Presidents rely heavily on Congress in converting their … U.S. interests abroad, presidential decisions are made with an eye toward managing political capital at home (Fordham 2002).
Issues are compartmentalized – political capital has no effect on legislation
Dickinson, 09 – professor of political science at Middlebury College and taught previously at Harvard University where he worked under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt (5/26/09, Matthew, Presidential Power: A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,” http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/, JMP)
As for Sotomayor, from here the path toward almost certain confirmation …d through legislative boxscores.
ECON
Economic decline has no effect on Russian foreign policy
Blackwill 2009 – former US ambassador to India and US National Security Council Deputy for Iraq, former dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard (Robert D., RAND, “The Geopolitical Consequences of the World Economic Recession—A Caution”, http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP275.pdf, WEA)
Now on to Russia. Again, five years from … Russian foreign policy are likely to be changed in any serious way by the economic crisis.
Russia’s resilient
Garrels 2008 Roving foreign correspondent for NPR’s foreign desk. (Anne Garrels, “Russia Economy Strong Despite Commodity Fallout”, NPR, September 20, 2008, page 1, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94647099)
For the past six years, Russia's … continue to grow at about six percent.
Cred solves North Korea war
Etzioni 11 (Amitai, professor of international relations at George Washington University and author of Security First: For a Muscular, Moral Foreign Policy, “The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility”, http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf)
The Next Test
As I will show shortly, in recent years a large and growing … in the near future.
Korean war goes nuclear
STRATFOR 10 5/26/10, “North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,” http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100526_north_korea_south_korea_military_balance_peninsula
So the real issue is the potential for … escalates much further.
