Advantage 1 is Credibility
Current US policy in Syria is too slow – leading from behind diverges from public opinion
Satloff ’11 (Dr. Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 6-23-11, “Iran and Syria: Next Steps,” testimony for the House, http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/sat062311.pdf)
At the same time, however, U.S. … importance as Syria is not leading at all.
Recent statements prove – Obama deferring leadership
Fisher 12/21, Max Fisher, associate editor at The Atlantic, 12/21/2011, "Is the White House Gearing Up for Action on Syria?," www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/12/is-the-white-house-gearing-up-for-action-on-syria/250343/
The White House press office has just released an unusually ,,,multilateral intervention that Russia and China would normally be able to block.
Leadership on Syria key to credibility with the Arab world and effective policymaking
Pletka 11/18 (Danielle Pletka is vice president of foreign and defense policy studies at AEI, “US needs to lead from the front on Syria,” http://www.aei.org/article/debate-prep-us-needs-to-lead-from-the-front-on-syria/)
Consider the stakes: Syria is Iran's most important ally… America was all but absent.
Scenario 1 – Iran
American leadership engaging Arab publics only way to effectively counterbalance Iran
Lynch ’11, Marc Lynch, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf
America’s interest in preventing Iran from acquiring … demonstrate that commitment in practice.
Lack of action on Syria emboldens Iran – conflict and prolif
Glick 12/30/11, Caroline, Jerusalem Post (“Column One: Obama’s foreign policy spin,” http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=251505)
In Syria, while the administration insists that dictator Bashar Assad’s … forces and strengthened US foes.
Lack of credibility strengthens Iran – causes nuclear arms race, nuke terror, conventional escalation and accidental nuke war drawing in the US
Kroenig ’12, Matthew, Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations; former Special Adviser to the Secretary of Defense, responsible for defense strategy and policy on Iran, Jan/Feb 2012 (“Time to Attack Iran,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 91, Issue 1)
Some states in the region are doubting U.S. resolve to stop the …could draw the United States in, as well.
Scenario 2 – Terrorism
US stance on reform determines Al-Qaeda’s recovery
Zarate & Gordon 11 Zarate and Gordon Summer 11 Juan C. Zarate is a Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism (2005— 2009). He can be reached at jzarate@csis.org. David A. Gordon is the Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project. He can be reached at dgordon@csis.org. Both are working on a year-long CSIS study on the future of al-Qaeda and its associated movements. Copyright # 2011 Center for Strategic and International Studies The Washington Quarterly • 34:3 pp. 103122 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2011.588305
If inadequate reform leads to disillusionment, … to support the organic movements in the region.
Syria uniquely gives al Qaeda the opportunity to reestablish their influence
Koran 12/23, Tony Koran, TIME, 12/23/2011, "Why the Damascus Bombing is Better News for Syria’s Regime Than for its Opposition," globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/12/23/why-the-damascus-bombing-is-better-news-for-syrias-regime-than-for-its-opposition/
Useful as Friday’s attacks may have been to the regime’s p.r. … the terrain on which Assad is choosing to fight.
Al Qaeda is actively pursuing a nuclear weapon
Bunn et al. ’11 (May 2011. Matthew Bunn, associate professor, at Harvard Kennedy School and Co- Principal Investigator of Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Colonel Yuri Morozov, prof @ Russian Academy of Military Sciences former chief of General Staff of the Russian military; Rolf Mowatt-Larssen. Senior fellow at Belfer Center, fmr. director of Intelligence at DoE; Simon Saradzhyan, senior fellow at Belfer Center; William Tobey, senior fellow at Belfer Center & director of the U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism, fmr. deputy administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the NNSA; Colonel General Viktor I. Yesin, senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and advisor to commander of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, fmr. chief of staff of the Strategic Missile Forces; Major General Pavel S. Zolotarev, deputy director of the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and fmr. head of the Information and Analysis Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense. “The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism.” The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies.)
Nuclear terrorism is a real and urgent threat. Urgent …nuclear weapons is as strong as ever.
Access to fissile material and weaponization are not barriers
Bunn et al. ’11 (May 2011. Matthew Bunn, associate professor, at Harvard Kennedy School and Co- Principal Investigator of Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Colonel Yuri Morozov, prof @ Russian Academy of Military Sciences former chief of General Staff of the Russian military; Rolf Mowatt-Larssen. Senior fellow at Belfer Center, fmr. director of Intelligence at DoE; Simon Saradzhyan, senior fellow at Belfer Center; William Tobey, senior fellow at Belfer Center & director of the U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism, fmr. deputy administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the NNSA; Colonel General Viktor I. Yesin, senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and advisor to commander of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, fmr. chief of staff of the Strategic Missile Forces; Major General Pavel S. Zolotarev, deputy director of the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and fmr. head of the Information and Analysis Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense. “The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism.” The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies.)
Counting assembled nuclear weapons … capabilities, if it could obtain fissile material.”6
Nuke terror escalates to global nuclear war and extinction
Morgan ‘9, Dennis Ray, Hankuk U of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus – South Korea, Dec 2009 (“World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race,” Futures, Vol. 41, Iss. 10, pg. 683-93)
In a remarkable website on nuclear war, Carol Moore asks the question .. and start through the accidental or reckless use of strategic weapons.
Advantage 2 is Stability
Syria is fraught with violence now – failure of opposition causes radicalization of tactics
Basu 12/23, Moni Basu, CNN, 12/23/2011, "Car bombs mark escalation of violence in Syria," www.cnn.com/2011/12/23/world/meast/syria-violence-escalation/?hpt=hp_t1
In the 10 months that Syrians have taken to the streets, … going to become more likely."
Assad collapse inevitable – drawn-out revolution leads to violent radicalization and lashout, quick transition inhibits Iranian influence and regional terrorism
Anderson ’11, James H. Anderson is a professor at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies. He previously served as director of Middle East policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2006 to 2009, December 2011, "After the Fall: What’s Next for Assad and Syria?" www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/after-fall-what’s-next-assad-and-syria
Getting a clear read on developments in Syria can … external pressures hasten its inglorious end.
Delaying the inevitable triggers an intractable civil war, US action key
Boot 12/5, Max Boot, Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow in National Security Studies, Council on Foreign Relations; written for Weekly Standard, NY Times, LA Times; former writer and editor for Christian Science Monitor and The Wall Street Journal, 12/5/11 (“Assad Must Go,” Weekly Standard, Vol. 17, No. 12, http://www.cfr.org/syria/assad-must-go/p26706)
The “realist” case for Bashar al-Assad—and before him… sanctioning Syria, but more action is necessary.
The impact is linear – the longer we wait, the greater the magnitude and probability – plan key to avoid violent radicalization
Tabler ’11 (Andrew J. Tabler is a Next Generation fellow in the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant. November 9, 2011, testimony for US Senate hearing on “U.S. Policy in Syria,” http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/html/pdf/TablerSenate20111109.pdf)
Increasing numbers in the Syrian opposition …become and spread to neighboring countries.
Slow collapse causes Assad lashout against Israel – provokes regional nuclear and chemical war
Ceren ’11 (Omri Ceren, founder and editor of Mere Rhetoric, a political blog dealing with the geopolitical, cultural, and economic dimensions of the global war between the West and political Islam. He's been published in international outlets such as the Jerusalem Post, and his investigative journalism has been cited by the Associated Press, Reuters, CNN, the BBC, the New York Times, and other outlets. He is a Ph.D. candidate studying rhetoric, argumentation, and media at the University of Southern California's Annenberg School of Communication, 8-1-11, “Just how bad could a Syrian collapse get?” http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/08/01/syrian-collapse-israel/)
But the continued stability of the Syrian regime is only one highly … situation that will not cause Israeli politicians to overreact less.
CBW attack escalates to nuclear war
Wilson ’11 (Matthew Wilson, actuary & risk manager who focuses on analysis of emerging risks, 2-24-11, “Iran and Syria provoking tension along the Israeli border,” http://www.1913intel.com/2011/02/24/iran-and-syria-provoking-tension-along-the-israeli-border/)
Both Iran and Syria, worried about … Syria has chemical weapons. Hezbollah may have chemical weapons.
Draws in great powers and goes global
Steinbach ’07 [John Steinbach, Center for Research on Globalization 1-7-07 “Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction: a threat to peace” http://globalresearch.ca/articles/STE203A.html]
Meanwhile, the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn has serious implications for future arms control and disarmament negotiations, and even the threat of nuclear war. Seymour Hersh warns, "Should war break out in the Middle East again,... or should any Arab nation fire missiles against Israel, as the Iraqis did, a nuclear escalation, once unthinkable except as a last resort, would now be a strong probability."(41) and Ezar Weissman, Israel's current President said "The nuclear issue is gaining momentum(and the) next war will not be conventional."(42) Russia and before it the Soviet Union has long been a major(if not the major) target of Israeli nukes. It is widely reported that the principal purpose of Jonathan Pollard's spying for Israel was to furnish satellite images of Soviet targets and other super sensitive data relating to U.S. nuclear targeting strategy. (43) (Since launching its own satellite in 1988, Israel no longer needs U.S. spy secrets.) Israeli nukes aimed at the Russian heartland seriously complicate disarmament and arms control negotiations and, at the very least, the unilateral possession of nuclear weapons by Israel is enormously destabilizing, and dramatically lowers the threshold for their actual use, if not for all out nuclear war. In the words of Mark Gaffney, "... if the familar pattern(Israel refining its weapons of mass destruction with U.S. complicity) is not reversed soon- for whatever reason- the deepening Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration." (44)
The risk of war is uniquely high now – Arab Spring changed security calculus
Singh ’11 (Michael Singh, managing director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, formerly served on the National Security Council as senior director for Middle East affairs, October 24, 2011, “Arab Spring, Arab Storm: Implications for Israel,” http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3413)
On a more fundamental level, however, the Arab Spring … states competing for primacy.
Syrian regime change makes Arab-Israeli peace plausible
Salem ’11, Paul, Director, Carnegie Middle East Center, 12/9/11 (“A New Balance of Power if Syria Shifts Away from Iran,” https://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/12/09/new-balance-of-power-if-syria-shifts-away-from-iran/872n)
The fall of the Assad regime might also create …Arab-Israeli peace agreement incorporating the Arab peace offer of 2002.
Plan
The United States federal government should substantially increase civil society assistance for Syria.
Solvency
Civil society assistance fractures the regime, causing peaceful transition
Rettig 11/17, Jessica Rettig, US News and World Report, 11/17/2011, How U.S. Could Encourage Peace in Syria,” http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/11/17/how-us-could-encourage-peace-in-syria
From army defectors to militant gangs, violent anti-government … situation where we discredit the opposition because we're seen to be meddling," he says.
The plan undermines Assad and moderates the opposition
Fry et al. 11/8, Jamie M. Fly (Foreign Policy Initiative), Robert Zarate (FPI), Mark Dubowitz (Foundation for the Defense of Democracy), Reuel Marc Gerecht (FDD), Tony Badran (FDD), Ammar Abdulhamid (FDD), and John Hannah (FDD), “Towards a Post-Assad Syria,” http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/towards-a-post-assad-syria/
To begin with, Washington should immediately … from our European and Arab partners.
US civil society assistance organizes and unifies opposition groups
Karlin & Tabler 11 (Mara E. Karlin, Instructor , Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), former Levant Director and Special Assistant to the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, US Department of Defense, and Andrew J. Tabler, fellow in the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant. “Obama’s Push-Pull Strategy: How Washington should plan for a post-Assad Syria,” May 25, 2011, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/discussions/roundtables/end-of-days-for-assad)
To further assist the Syrian opposition, Washington should, at a minimum, … not the current minority system).
Unified opposition key to defections and preventing violent radicalization
Seelye ’11 (Kate Seelye is vice president of the Middle East Institute and a former NPR correspondent based in the Middle East, September 1, 2011, “Why can’t the Syrian opposition get along?” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/01/why_cant_the_syrian_opposition_get_along?page=0,0)
The reasons for the Syrian opposition's inability to organize an … remains little more than a distant hope.
US key – facilitates peaceful transition, Assad uniquely perceives Obama’s weakness
Young ’11 (Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star newspaper in Beirut and author of “The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon’s Life Struggle” (Simon & Schuster), listed as one of the 10 notable books of 2010 by The Wall Street Journal. 8-1-2011, “Escalating Violence in Syria Paralyzes the West,” http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/08/01/washington-avoids-syrian-crackdown-in-hama.html)
The administration has claimed that its leverage over Syria is limited. …They could just as well been addressing the far larger community of nations.
Only US leadership encourages power players to abandon the regime
Brodsky ’11, Matthew RJ Brodsky is the Director of Policy for the Jewish Policy Center and the editor of the JPC's journal, inFOCUS Quarterly, 11/4/2011, "The U.S. Must Ratchet Up Pressure on Syria," www.matthewrjbrodsky.com/10643/the-us-must-ratchet-up-pressure-on-syria
With NATO calling off military operations in Libya, ,,, then wait to see what happens
US support is positively perceived – Obama has influence
Gordon ’11, J.D.Gordon, communications consultant to several Washington, D.C.-area think tanks and a retired Navy commander who served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, 4/22/2011, “Syria Protests Are the Arab Spring's Silver Lining – Why Isn't the U.S. Trying to Do More for Democracy There?” http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/04/22/syria-arab-springs-silver-lining-arent-pushing-harder-democracy/
In the wake of Hariri’s assassination and resulting ,,,being any worse.
