High oil prices boost the entire Russian economy, as the government distributes revenues and the ruble strengthens

Baden ‘11
(Ben, Reporter at U.S. News & World Report, “Russia Stocks Soar on Rising Oil Prices,”4-5, http://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/mutual-funds/articles/2011/04/05/russia-stocks-soar-on-rising-oil-prices)

Of the rapidly growing "BRIC" countries—Brazil, Russia, management consultant firm Magoon Capital.

Russian economic decline causes nuclear war
FILGER 2009 (Sheldon, author and blogger for the Huffington Post, “Russian Economy Faces Disastrous Free Fall Contraction” http://www.globaleconomiccrisis.com/blog/archives/356)
In Russia historically, economic health Economic Crisis is its least dangerous consequence.

Russian weakness causes nuclear war, prolif, disease, terrorism, CBW use, world economic collapse, and US intervention
OLIKER AND CHARLICK-PALEY 2002 (Olga and Tanya, RAND Corporation Project Air Force, “Assessing Russia’s Decline,” www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1442/)
The preceding chapters have illustrated the ways increasing the risk of nuclear war.
Russian economy is key to the global economy
DELANEY 1-26-2011 (Martin, “Russia: The Wild East,” Investment And Pensions Europe)
However, many would argue they are wrong. "There ..are being made

Diversification efforts solve long term unsustainability but high oil prices are key to fund investment in diversification in the short-term.
What the Papers Say (Russia), 11/28/2007. “Still Hooked on Oil,” Lexis.

Being hooked on oil is the .. certainly won't be simple and smooth.

High oil prices key to ensure Russian reforms.
Vladimir Chizhov, 5/8/2008. Russian Ambassador to the EU, former deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs. “Russian Ambassador: 'You will not live to see Putin and Medvedev in conflict,” EurActiv, http://www.euractiv.com/en/foreign-affairs/russian-ambassador-live-see-putin-medvedev-conflict/article-172227.

I will not deny that the high price of oil, … infrastructure is very investment heavy.

A) High prices spur renewables that solve warming
CETRON AND DAVIES ‘7
(Marvin, president of Forecasting International Ltd.; Owen, former senior editor at Omni magazine and freelance writer, The Futurist, SEPTEMBER 1)

Coal gasification. In an effort to wean the .. technologies already have proven useful.

B) Extinction

Tickell ‘8
[Oliver, Climate Researcher, The Guardian, 8-11, “On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange]

We need to get prepared for … similar hothouse Earth
High oil prices key to construction of IPI pipeline.
Barry Wood, 3/24/2005. “High Oil Prices Make New Pipeline Construction More Likely,” Voice of America, http://www.politicsol.com/news/2005/03-24-higher-oil-prices-make-new-pipeline-construction-more-likely.html.

Oil analysts stress that despite rising demand there is at present no shortage of oil $4 billion and take from three to five years to build. 

IPI key to prevent India-Pakistan conflict.
Rizwan Zeb, 11/16/2005. Senior analyst at the Institute of Regional Studies in Islamabad. “Does the Iran-India-Pakistan Pipeline Have a Future?” Central Asia Caucasus Institute, http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/3551/print.

Apart from the fact that the IPI pipelin. seems to have achieved this objective – at least on this theatre. 

Extinction.
Ghulam Nabi Fai, 7/8/2001. Kashmiri American Council. Washington Times, Lexis.

The foreign policy of the United States in impending Fissile Material/Cut-off Convention.

SKFTA 1NC
South Korea will pass now-momentum and bipartisan agreement on TAA
WSJ 9/13 (Kirk working with the Senate on Trade Bills,
U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk said Monday talks on passing free-trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia and Panama are …. from developing countries.

DA drains Obama’s capital
-Empirically proven by past presidents
-Bureaucratic resistance
-Requires legislation
-Congressional interference
Carol Lancaster June 2008 (George Bush's Foreign Aid: Transformation or Chaos? Chapter 2, online)
No matter how much … to drive a change.8

Political capital is key to passage-necessary to compel and agreement on TAA
Doug Palmer, Reuters contributor, 9/2 (Obama's trade legacy in a crucible this fall,
Still, Congress' … to approve the trade pacts.

Failure to pass SKFTA collapses the economy, our alliance with South Korea, and turns the case
Robert D. Hormats, Under Secretary for Economic, Energy and Agricultural Affairs, 9/13 (US economic policy and the Asia Pacific, www.state.gov/e/rls/rmk/2011/172307.htm)
In line with these objectives, we seek urgent Congressional passage of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS).Passage will … foreign policy influence.

Economic collapse triggers global nuclear war
Friedberg & Schoenfeld 2008 [Aaron, professor of politics and international relations at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School, Gabriel, Visiting Scholar @ Witherspoon Institute, The Dangers of a Diminished America, WSJ, 10/21, Proquest]
Protectionist sentiments are sure to grow stronger as jobs disappear in the coming slowdown. Even before our current woes, calls to save jobs by … with external adventures.

Demise of the alliance causes a nuclear war, ending in extinction
Hayes and Green, 2010 - *Victoria University AND Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute (Peter and Michael, “-“The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, 1/5,

The consequences … international community.

1NC

Thesis and Link – Democracy Assistance produces and maintains an ideology of convergence, trying to remake the world in the style of America pseudo-democracy. This ideology of convergence disables a truly empowering concept of democracy, one rooted in institutional experimentation and divergence. Until this experimentation becomes entrenched around the world, war and crisis are inevitable – they become the only means of changing society.

Roberto Unger ‘5 Roscoe Pound Professor of Law, Harvard, former minister of strategic affairs, Brazil What Should the Left Propose? P. 1-11

The world …, in treading it. 11 

And, US democracy assistance is inevitably and inalterably tied to convergence. Because of US imperial ambitions, its programs attempt to impose an orthodox version of neoliberal democracy, disabling all of the various alternatives.

Alison J. Ayers ‘9 Simon Fraser University “Imperial Liberties: Democratisation and Governance in the ‘New’ Imperial Order” POLITICAL STUDIES: 2009 VOL 57, 1–27

Transformation in … triumphalism’ (Comaroff and Comaroff, 1997, p. 141). 

The impact – until divergence and experimentation are institutionalized around the world, wars will be fought in the name of democracy. Mass graveyards are inevitable.

Steven Best ‘7, Prof Of Phil, UTEP (The International Journal of INCLUSIVE DEMOCRACY, Vol. 3, No. 2 (April 2007)) http://www.inclusivedemocracy.org/journal/vol3/vol3_no2_Best_crisis_culture_PRINTABLE.htm

Since the “election” of … has historically established.” 

Our alternative  Reject American Democracy Assistance and embrace the democratic experimentalist impulse. We must let democratic institutions develop indigenously around the world in order for the maximum amount of divergence to be realized. 

Revitalizing democratic experimentalism is the most important and effective way of energizing programmatic imagination of alternatives around the globe

David Slater ‘9 Dept. Geog, Loughborough University, Human Geography Volume 2, Number 3 2009, EXPORTING IMPERIAL DEMOCRACY: CRITICAL REFLECTIONS ON THE US CASE

In the global … open and creative manner. 

Text: The government of the Republic of Turkey should 

The counterplan solves best—the US model is bankrupt  and crowds out Turkish regional leadership
BAROUD 2011 (Ramzy, internationally syndicated journalist, “Arabs Should Follow Turkish Model,” Gulf News, June 22, http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/arabs-should-follow-turkish-model-1.824859)
The third consecutive ….and military ambitions.

Turkish leadership is key to peace, stability, and democracy in the Middle East—it also causes EU accession
DJAVADI 2009 (Abbas, associate director of broadcasting at Radio Free Europe, “Turkish Involvement Could Stimulate Middle East Development,” RFE/RL, March 17, http://www.rferl.org/content/Turkish_Involvement_Could_Stimulate_Middle_East_Development/1511616.html)
Turkish efforts over ….concerns closer to home.

Turkish EU accession is key to prevent war in Europe
AKARCALI 2005 (Motherland Party (ANAP) Deputy Chairman Bulent Akarcali, “Cyprus PIO: Turkish Press and Other Media,” 2-3-2005, http://www.hri.org/news/cyprus/tcpr/2002/02-03-05.tcpr.html)
Answer: The EU … it would turn its back on Turkey.

Global nuke war
GLASER 1993 (Charles, Professor at the University of Chicago, International Security, Summer)
However, …unconcerned about Europe’s future.

Middle East War Good

Middle East war would be short and small-scale
FERGUSON 2006 (Niall, Professor of History at Harvard University, Senior Research Fellow of Jesus College, Oxford, and Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution, Stanford, LA Times, July 24)
Could today's quarrel … being made in Washington.

Turn—Terrorism: Middle East war solves it
A) Distracts jihadists from attacks against the US
CETRON AND DAVIES 2007 (Marvin J. Cetron president of Forecasting International Ltd  and Owen Davies reader in Social History at the University of Hertfordshire, “Worst-case scenario: the Middle East: current trends indicate that Middle Eastern war might last for decades. Here is an overview of the most critical potential impacts,” The Futurist, 9/1/07, http://www.allbusiness.com/government/government-bodies-offices/5523341-1.html)
Terrorism, …the appeal of jihad.

B) War causes a crisis in Islam—results in long-term moderation and absolves the US of blame
CETRON AND DAVIES 2007 (Marvin J. Cetron president of Forecasting International Ltd  and Owen Davies reader in Social History at the University of Hertfordshire, “Worst-case scenario: the Middle East: current trends indicate that Middle Eastern war might last for decades. Here is an overview of the most critical potential impacts,” The Futurist, 9/1/07, http://www.allbusiness.com/government/government-bodies-offices/5523341-1.html)
In a paper …h easier to coexist in turn.

C) Extinction
Corsi, 2005. Jerome, PhD in political science from Harvard. excerpt from Atomic Iran, http://911review.org/Wget/worldnetdaily.com/NYC_hit_by_terrorist_nuke.html.
The … on attacking one another.

Warming
A) Middle East war solves it
CETRON AND DAVIES SEPTEMBER 1 2007 (Marvin, president of Forecasting International Ltd.; Owen, former senior editor at Omni magazine and freelance writer, The Futurist)
Coal gasification. …technologies already have proven useful.

B) Extinction
Tickell 8 [Oliver, Climate Researcher, The Guardian, 8-11, “On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange]
We need to get … hothouse Earth.

A2 Democratic Peace Theory

Democratic peace theory is a farce
Layne 7
Christopher, Professor @ TX A&M, American Empire: A Debate, pg. 94

Wilsonian ideology …other democracies.

Many counterexamples
Thomas Schwartz is Professor of Political Science at University of California, Los Angeles. Kiron K. Skinner is a Fellow at the council on Foreign Relations and the Hoover Institution and Assistant Professor of History and Political Science at Carnegie Mellon University, ORBIS, Winter 2001 v46 i1 p159(14)  The Myth of the Democratic Peace. (America and the West)..
The wars below…for international peace.

Neg: Harvard KT

Round # 3  Tournament: Shirley

vs: Northwestern BM

Judge: Kelly Young

Off Case Args: Unemployment politics, T - material, Advantage CP (text below), Pic (text below), Oil DA (impacts Russian economy/ nuke war and global warming)

Case Args: Just defense

Block Strategy: 2nc - T, Case, Advantage CP, and Oil DA; 1nr – Pic and kicked politics

2nr Strategy: Oil DA, Advantage CP, and case

The United States federal government should provide support for transparent democratic governance in Tripolitania, Fezzan, and Cyrenaica.

Use of the name “Libya” supports a racist scheme of colonialist genocide—rejecting the imposition of foreign names allows resistance

MEGALOMMATIS 2010 (Dr. Muhammad Shamsaddin Megalommatis, PhD, “Fake Sudan (Real Ethiopia) and Fake Ethiopia (Real Abyssinia): what is at stake?” American Chronicle, Feb 16, http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/view/141807)

As it happens with the attraction of foreign students in the Western universities,…and Romans the country south of Egypt, i.e. today´s Sudan.

The CP is the same area that the plan affects

MUHAMMOD 2011 (Salem, “Ghost of King Idris Fighting Gaddafi in Libya,” Middle East Newswire, Feb 22, http://www.mideastnewswire.com/idris-gaddafi)

To understand what is going on in Libya, one must have at least a general background … can probably guess that these tribal areas don’t really like each other so much.

The language we use to discuss Libya shapes our responses and maintains racism—including the term “Libya” includes the whole ideology of colonialism

SHAHADAH 2005 (Owen ‘Alik, Filmmaker and Writer, “Linguistics for a New African Reality,” December, http://www.africanholocaust.net/news_ah/language%20new%20reality.htm)

Words play a critical role in articulating our reality … more over the legacies of those systems.

They can’t just change the meaning of words—this supports fascism and imperialism

HEXHAM 1999 (Irving, in Mission and the State, ed. Ulrich van der Hayden, 2000, http://www.ucalgary.ca/~hexham/courses/Courses-2006/Rels-339/IRVING/Ulrich-revised.htm)

Only in the 1980's did a growing number of radical Whites … out to promote the revival of fascism.

Text: The United States federal government should establish the USA-World trust, institute reforms to increase interagency cooperation and streamlining for public diplomacy, establish interagency commands for reconstruction and development and appoint a Deputy National Security Advisor for Outreach.

The counterplan solves soft power

LORD 2008 (Kristin, Fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies Program and Saban Center’s Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World at the Brookings Institution, former Associate Dean for Strategy, Research, and External Relations at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, “Voices of America : U.S. Public Diplomacy for the 21st Century,” November, http://www.brookings.edu/reports/2008/~/media/Files/rc/reports/2008/11_public_diplomacy_lord/11_public_diplomacy_lord.pdf)

In hundreds of conversations with experts and practitioners inside and … lethal force or presenting the official position of the United States government overseas.

Public diplomacy can sway foreign publics to overcome backlash to specific policies

LORD 2008 (Kristin, Fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies Program and Saban Center’s Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World at the Brookings Institution, former Associate Dean for Strategy, Research, and External Relations at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, “Voices of America : U.S. Public Diplomacy for the 21st Century,” November, http://www.brookings.edu/reports/2008/~/media/Files/rc/reports/2008/11_public_diplomacy_lord/11_public_diplomacy_lord.pdf)

This vision does not ignore the long history of anti-Americanism … collaboration, and facilitating the achievement of common goals.

Text: The United States federal government should provide additional financial and technical support to secure weapons-grade fissile material internationally and blend down its excess highly enriched uranium. The United States President should announce his intention to secure such materials and appoint an advisor dedicated solely to this goal.

The United States federal government should provide additional funding to programs aimed at the employment of personnel who could assist nonstate actors in building or acquiring nuclear warheads and reform such programs to focus on the personnel most likely to be targeted by such actors.

Solvency: Focusing on securing fissile material represents the best chance to prevent nuclear terrorism, and avoids politics because the initiative has bipartisan support

Gard ‘8

(Robert, Lt. General, Ret., Leonor Tomero, Director of Nuclear Non-Proliferation,  Kingston Reif, Former Herbert Scoville Jr. Peace Fellow, “Strengthening U.S. Security Through Non-Proliferation and Arms Control,” December, The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation)

Participants agreed that committing to a high profile effort to … of its efforts to secure vulnerable fissile materials worldwide.

Unemployment benefits will pass now-consensus of experts and insiders

Michigan Messenger 11/8 (Unemployment extension seen as likely to pass)

The conventional wisdom in Washington seems …fund the program without increasing deficit spending.

Boosting aid to Egypt is politically costly-successive Congresses have sought to cut democracy assistance

Anne Peters, Foreign Policy contributor, 14 February 2011 (Why Obama Shouldn't Increase Democracy Aid to Egypt, )

In 2008, democracy and governance funding for Egypt … governance programs; the direct-grants program has not yet been revived.

Political capital is key-Obama’s push overwhelms GOP opposition and thumpers

Erica Werner, AP contributor, 10/25 (For Obama, new focus on the piecemeal, )

The president who ran for office promising sweeping change now …He's got to try to do everything he can."

Benefit extension key to the economy

Vicki Needham, The Hill correspondent, 10/16 (Deadline looms for Congress to cut deal on unemployment benefits, http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/801-economy/187819-deadline-looms-for-lawmakers-to-reach-deal-on-unemployment-benefits-bill)

The federal unemployment insurance programs have … 2012, as part of the broader jobs bill initiative being debated in the Senate this week."

Global nuclear war

Friedberg & Schoenfeld 2008 [Aaron, professor of politics and international relations at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School, Gabriel, Visiting Scholar @ Witherspoon Institute, The Dangers of a Diminished America, WSJ, 10/21, Proquest]

Protectionist sentiments are sure to grow stronger as jobs disappear … attention from internal travails with external adventures.

Link alone turns cred

McFaul, 2006 (David Adesnik is a member of the research staff at the Institute for Defense Analyses.Michael McFaul is the Helen and Peter Bing Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution;director of the Center for Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law at StanfordUniversity; and a nonresident senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington Quarterly, Spring)

Second, words mattered, especially when they were the president’s … consequence of undermining their superiors’ credibility, including that of the president.

Turns heg & irreg warfare

Thompson ‘9

(Loren, Chief Operating Officer-Lexington Institute, “America’s Economic Decline,” Armed Forced Journal, March, [http://www.afji.com/2009/03/3922551]

In other words, America’s economy is in decline. The problem … trends mean for the nation’s future military preparedness.

Forecasters systematically underestimate the odds of a double dip-err on the side of caution and disregard poor scholarship and cognitive bias

David Leonhardt, NYT contributor, 9/7 (Rising Fears of Recession)

 “It’s extremely hard to predict recessions,” Mr. Hamilton said. ,…a double-dip recession now? Somewhere between 25 and 40 percent.

Recent crisis destroyed our cushion – no more resiliency

The Frontrunner ‘10

(August 26, 2010, p. online)

The AP (8/25, Wagner, Zibel) reports, "It's starting to feel like another recession. Businesses are … once considered a strong point, appeared to struggle."

Will pass but it’s not certain-there will be a big fight over spending

WSJ 11/3 (House Democrats Propose Unemployment Extension, )

Lawmakers this year face intensifying pressures to … facing a potential man-made human disaster.”

Unemployment benefits transcend other political fights-bipartisan agreement

Bryan Carey, Houson Finance Examiner, 10/11 (Unemployment benefits could end it Congress doesn't take action, )

President Obama’s job creation bill has created a political storm in … unemployment benefits when push comes to a small shove.

And, Obama is recovering-polls prove

Anthony Karge 11/2 (Quinnipiac Poll Finds Rise in Obama's Popularity, )

In the past month, President Barack Obama has seen his popularity … also shift from a five-point negative to a four-point positive.

Political capital is high now – specifically true in the context of jobs

Politico 10/31 (Can Barack Obama Stay on New Message, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/67191.html)

This restless synaptic churn has been so jarring many … force the Republicans to accept some parts of his proposal.”

Any new legislative action taken on Egypt costs Obama capital-starts a big fight with multiple divisions in Congress and spin is tied to the Muslim Brotherhood

James Oliphant, LAT correspondent, 3 February 2011 (Unrest in Egypt poses obstacle for Republicans, articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/03/nation/la-na-egypt-conservatives-20110203)

Some Republicans — such as Senate Minority Leader Mitch … like saying Obama's fault the sun comes out tomorrow," he said.

Obama aggressively pushing unemployment benefits extension

WSJ 11/10 (White Hosue to Push to Extend Payroll Tax Cut, )

The White House is gearing up to make a big …middle class Americans with an additional $1,000.

Winners lose

William A. Galston, Senior Fellow, Governance Studies at Brookings, 11/4/2010.  “President Barack Obama’s First Two Years: Policy Accomplishments, Political Difficulties,” http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2010/1104_obama_galston.aspx

Second, the administration believed that success … of political fundamentals than did administration strategists.

Capital finite – sequencing important

Michael Armacost, former president of Brookings and fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute, 2010.  “President Obama’s Foreign Policy: A Preliminary Reckoning After One Year,” http://www.cmc.edu/keck/MArmacostKeynoteSpeech042310.pdf

Second, most presidents change the procedures … establishing those priorities takes time as well.

Default to the link – legislative achievement doesn’t equal success

Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post, 12/23/2010.  “Psst, there’s no Obama comeback,” http://voices.washingtonpost.com/right-turn/2010/12/psst_theres_no_obama_comeback.html

Only inside the Beltway could the passage of an … stimulus plan would have had the greatest year ever.

1NC

1.       T - Democracy has to be directly political / Development assistance in indirect

2.       Turkey CP – subst increase support for civil police training in Yemen

3.       Politics – PTC key to economy

4.       Saudi Relations – democratic Yemen threatens Syria, Saudi Prolif Impact

5.       Terror advantage CP

6.       Russia Sphere of Influence DA – Russia arms sales / Russia econ impact

2NC

1.       T

2.       Russian Arm Sales

3.       Advantage CP

4.       Case

1NR

1.       Politics

2.       Case

2NR

1.       Russia D/A – economic collapse turns terror and bioterror, Russia key to global econ, Russia lashout Impacts

2.       Terror Advantage CP

3.       Case Defense

Cites:

Politics 1NC:

Unemployment will pass

Reuters 1/13 (“Tea Party may get rebuffed in tax cut showdown”)

Some Tea Party lawmakers… cost with spending cuts

Aid unpopular

Steven McInerney, “The federal budget and appropriations” pomed.org, July 2011

Moreover, in Egypt and Tunisia… undergoing political transitions

Political Capital Key

Gulf News 12/27/11 “Obama – hero of the Middle Class?”

For US President Barack… American households in 2012

Key to Econ

NPR 12/22 “What’s the economic impact if the tax break dies?”

For the full year… program and consumer spending

Counterplan 1NC:

Text: The United States federal government should provide additional funding to programs aimed at the employment of personnel who could assist nonstate actors in building or acquiring nuclear warheads and reform such programs to focus on the personnel most likely to be targeted by such actors. The United States Federal Government should finance greater cooperation and intelligence sharing between national, state, and local law enforcement and intelligence agencies for the prevention of terrorist attacks in the United States, increase funding and coordination for nuclear forensics, offer a global alliance against nuclear terrorism to Russia, and adopt a classified policy prohibiting the use of nuclear weapons in response to terrorism.  The Department of Defense should streamline doctrine for domestic response to terrorism. The United States Federal Government should, in consultation with the government of India, offer economic aid to the government of Sri Lanka in exchange for the right to establish a permanent naval presence in Sri Lanka

The counterplan disrupts terrorism

SHEEHAN 2006 (Michael, former deputy commissioner for counterterrorism for the New York City Police Department, New York Times, Sep 10, http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9f04efdc1431f933a2575ac0a9609c8b63&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all)

THE most important counterterrorism activity since the fall … cities should emulate their example.

Nuclear forensics is the only way to prevent nuclear terrorism

LEVI 2004 (Michael, physicist, is the science and technology policy fellow in foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution, Issues in Science and Technology, Spring)

Terrorists cannot build nuclear weapons without first acquiring fissile materials-…  not as an end but as a means to prevent attacks.

Providing more money and new direction to scientist-redirection program solves terror

Newmann and Bunn 2009  (“Funding for US Efforts to Improve Controls over nuclear weapons” )

Programs focused on redirecting weapons… and how they might best be addressed

Counterplan 2NC:

CP reforms increase the effectiveness of DOD responses

NDRI 2004 (“Triage for civil support” )

More comprehensive DoD guidance… widely available to civilian authorities

Response capabilities solve and deter terror

Murphy et. Al. April 2002 (Journal of health politics, policy, and law)

Because of the success of recent… minimize widespread injury and fear

Sri Lanka plank of CP solves terror

Anderson 2001 (“US naval basing in Sri Lanka?” Small wars journal, )

As a prominent place for naval harboring… particularly its growing interest in Sri Lanka posed by its geographic advantage?

Russia Arm Sales 1NC:

Influence in Yemen increasing

Xinhua 2011 (“Russia vows to “unlimitedly” support Yemen”)

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey… Russia’s stance toward Yemen.

US cred trades off with Russia influence and arms sales

STRATFOR 2000 (“At the tip of the Arabian Peninsula, a contest for influence” may 24)

Russian Defense Minister Igor… Horn of Africa, recently returned to all-out war

Arms sales key to Russia econ

RIVLIN 2005 (“The Russian Economy and Arms Exports to the Middle East”)

Russia’s military exports played a vital role… in the Middle East this meant Iran

NW

Filger 2009 (“Russian economy faces disasterous free fall” )

In Russia historically, economic health… its least dangerous consequence

2NC Russia DA:

Yemen Link – would stop doing business with Russia

BMI Defense and Security Report July 2011 (“Russia –Q3” Lexis)

The political upheaval which swept… Syria was ranked sixth

Laundry List Impact

Oliker and Charlick-Paley 2002 (“Assessing Russia’s Decline” )

The preceding chapters have illustrated the ways… actors, increasing the risk of nuclear war

Russia econ key to global econ

Delaney 1/26/11 (“Russia: The Wild East”)

However, many would argue that they are wrong… fortunes of the future are being made

Russia econ not resilient

BBC Worldwide 10/10/2008 (“Text of report by popular Russian newspaper Moskovskiy”

Over the almost two decades that have… term is not competitive under crisis conditions

Diversification from oil key to Russia Econ

BMI Defence and Security Report 2012 (Russia – Q1 2012, January – Lexis)

Fourthly, although Russia’s economy… the economy and boost other sectors

Econ vulnerable to dips in prices

VOA 11/8/11 (“IMF: Russia must reduce oil dependence, diversity”)

The head of the International… in part on falling oil prices.

Terrorism ADV:

Collapse of the Yemeni state would make it inhospitable to terrorists—we’d shoot them all

MANTZIKOS 2011 (Ioannis, PhD, “Somalia and Yemen: The Links between Terrorism and State Failure,” Digest of Middle East Studies, October, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1949-3606.2011.00098.x/full)

On the other hand, the case of Somalia suggests … state is not necessarily an ideal location.

Yemeni government is winning against AQAP

PHILSTAR 12-31-11 (Yemen sticks to anti-terrorism stance amid domestic strife, http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=763700&publicationSubCategoryId=200)

Yemen sticks to its iron fist policies against terrorism … a local army officer told Xinhua on condition of anonymity.

Saleh will maintain power in the short term—he’ll sabotage the transition agreement

COURIER-MAIL 1-3-12 (Yemen leader 'plans to keep power' http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/yemen-leader-plans-to-keep-power/story-fn6ck55c-1226235233480)

A dissident Yemeni general said yesterday that President Saleh wants … Saleh loyalists that continue to hold key positions.

Yemen sucks at terrorism

TRISTAM 2012 (Pierre, journalist, writer, editor and lecturer. He is currently the editor and publisher of FlaglerLive.com, a non-profit news site in Florida. Experience: A native of Beirut, Lebanon, who became an American citizen in 1986, Pierre is one of the United States' only Arab Americans with a regular current affairs column in a mainstream, metropolitan newspaper. The column focuses on the Middle East, foreign affairs, civil liberties, immigration and federal politics. Pierre's work has been published in numerous newspapers and magazines in the United States and overseas. Since 1991 Pierre has collected 13 first-place awards from various state and regional professional press associations for magazine, column, editorial and commentary writing. Education: Pierre is a graduate of the United Nations International School in New York and holds a B.A. in politics and history from New York University, “Why Yemen Is Not the Terrorist Threat It Is Perceived To Be,” Date is date accessed, 1-8-12, http://middleeast.about.com/od/yemen/a/yemen-terrorism.htm)

There's fair concern about Yemen being the new hub of al-Qaeda terrorism. … than would warrant a full-fledged war on terror.

Solvency:

Structural problems are the root of political instability—no political observers foresee stability

-Illiteracy, unemployment water shortage, high fertility and gender inequalities

ASRAR ‘6

(FATIMA ABO AL, policy paper was produced under the 2005-06 International Policy Fellowship program. Fatima Abo Al Asrar was a member of the Democratic Governance, Transparency and Accountability working group, “Democratic Governance in a  Tribal System,” CPS INTERNATIONAL POLICY FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM, July, http://www.policy.hu/document/200808/asrar_f2j.pdf)

What was once Arabia Felix stands now to be … and that more needs to be done.

Say No: Government fears assistance will alienate its base

Burke ‘10

(Edward, “Assessing Democracy Assistance: Yemen,” Researcher at FRIDE, May, FRIDE)

There are significant local factors that limit donor activities in Yemen, … has no political will to continue reforms.

Assad will survive now, but support for the opposition will bring him down

Jonathan Spyer is a senior research fellow at the Global Research in International Affairs Center in Herzliya, Israel, 12/18/2011, "Word of Caution on Assad's Fall," www.gloria-center.org/2011/12/word-of-caution-on-assads-fall-‎/

Regime change causes Hezbollah to acquire and Assad to use chemical weapons

Dan Ephron, Daily Beast, 12/25/2011, "Will Hizbullah Get Syria's WMD if Assad Goes Down?," www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/12/25/will-hezbollah-get-syria-s-wmd-if-assad-goes-down.html

1NC

Nuclear war

SCHNEIDER 1997 (Barry, Director of the USAF Counterproliferation Center at Air University, Maxwell AFB, Alabama, and an Associate Professor of International Relations in the Department of Future Conflict Studies at the U.S. Air War College., Future War and Counterproliferation, 72-73

No Regime Change Now

Regime is doing well – plan reverses their advantage

S. Faisal Ali, Arab News, 1/19/2012, "Assad’s confidence may prove misplaced," arabnews.com/opinion/columns/article565014.ece

Their evidence is biased – ignores recent polling data that most Syrians support Assad

Jonathan Steele, The Guardian, 1/17/2012, "Most Syrians back President Assad, but you'd never know from western media," www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jan/17/syrians-support-assad-western-propaganda

No Regime Change Now

Regime is in good shape because of the failure of the opposition

Patrick Seale is a leading British writer on the Middle East, 1/17/2012, "Can the Assad Regime Survive?" www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=50088

Assad will survive for a while

Marc Ginsberg, former US Ambassador to Morocco, 1/13/2012, "Can Assad's "Iron Fist" Be Broken?," www.huffingtonpost.com/amb-marc-ginsberg/can-assads-iron-fist-be-b_b_1205408.html

No Regime Change Now

No regime change now

Jonathan Cheng, centre for Arab and Islamic studies at the Australian National University, 12/27/2011, "Syria revolt doomed to sustained violence," www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/syria-revolt-doomed-to-sustained-violence-20111226-1pahe.html

Arab League is divided and won’t intervene

S. Faisal Ali, Arab News, 1/19/2012, "Assad’s confidence may prove misplaced," arabnews.com/opinion/columns/article565014.ece

1NC

A. Russia solves slow, stable reform now – the plan boxes them out of Syria and causes violence*

Day Press News, 1/17/2012, "A “Russian Initiative” to guide Syria," www.dp-news.com/en/detail.aspx?articleid=108761

1NC

B. US interference in syria kills relations

Steve Gutterman, Reuters, 10/5/2011, “Analysis: Don't meddle: Russia's warning in Syria veto,” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/05/us-syria-russia-idUSTRE79440O20111005

That’s key to Russian naval power and defense industry

WILSON 2011 (Michael, Bashar al-Assad: Moscow’s Indispensable Man, Middle Eastern Analysis, Oct 13, http://middleeasternanalysis.wordpress.com/)

1NC

Russian economic decline causes nuclear war

FILGER 2009 (Sheldon, author and blogger for the Huffington Post, “Russian Economy Faces Disastrous Free Fall Contraction” http://www.globaleconomiccrisis.com/blog/archives/356)

1NC

Plan drains Obama’s capital-multiple reasons

Baen et. Al 2011

1NC Prolif DA

Sanctions are working to bring Iran back to the table—need to close the deal or Iranian nuclear capability is inevitable.

Jamal Abdi 2011

Pro-democracy efforts in Syria would enrage Iran – obstruct Obama’s negotiations agenda

Matt Gurney 2011 “Libya Syria and Obama’s Double Standards

Iranian prolif causes nuclear war Wimbush 7 “The End of deterrence: A nuclear Iran will change everything.”

1NC

Relations High Syria

Russia-US relations over Syria now – characterizes general positive trend in relations

Masha Lipman

“2012 US presidential campaign implications for Russia eyed”

Plan will make Syria a point of ideaological struggle between Russia and the U.S.

Abdul-Hussain Daily stat 1/11/2012 “Russia has many reasons to defend Syria’s regime”

Russia opposes Western intervention – supports authoritarianism in Syria

Ariel Zirulnick 10/5/2011

Russia opposes attepts to overthrow Assad – political and economic motives

Ronald Oliphant Moscow Times 10/6/2011 “News analysis: Kremlin Not hardening policy with Syria veto”

Russian naval power is critical to solve regional war, terrorism and economy—also maintains overall Russian power and nuclear deterrence

VEGO 2009 (MILAN VEGO is a professor of operations at the Joint Military Operations Department at the Naval War College, “The Russian Navy revitalized,” Armed Forces Journal, May, http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2009/05/3989255/)

1NC

Russian relations key to stop nuclear war and global conflict

Cohen 2000 – professor of Russian studies at New York University (Stephen, Failed Crusade, p. 196-205)

Russia won't turn against Assad

Karasik 12/9 "Explaining Russia's policy toward Syria - Analysis" www.eurasiaview.com/09122011-explaining-Russias-policy-toward-syria-analysis?cid=nlc-dailybrief-daily_news_brief-link7-2011214

Extinction

Bostrom 2002 "Existential risks: analyzing humans extinction scenarios and related Hazards" page 38 www.transhumanist.com/volume9risks.html)

Relations turn middle east instability

Suslov 2005

http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id+5348J

Relations check Iran

NTI 9

httP://globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_2009318_4374.php.3/19

Low relations turn heg Simes 2007

"Losing Russia," Foreign Affairs Ebsco

Arms Impact -- Conventional Power

Arms exports are key to Russian conventional power

Weitz 2007 http://cffss.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=4947

Nuke war

Lambert and Miller 1997

"Russia's crumbling tactical nuclear weapons Complex: an opportunity for arms control" http://fas.ord/irp/threat/ocp12.htm

1NC Politics

Military clean energy is the top of the docket and will pass now-Obama is pushing hard

National Journal 2/10 (White House Budget to Expand Clean-Energy Programs Through Pentagon, http://www.nationaljournal.com/2013-budget/white-house-budget-to-expand-clean-energy-programs-through-pentagon-20120210?page=1)

The White House believes it has figured out how … to three-year payoff on the investment,” Kingston said. 

Boosting aid to Egypt is politically costly-successive Congresses have sought to cut democracy assistance

Anne Peters, Foreign Policy contributor, 14 February 2011 (Why Obama Shouldn't Increase Democracy Aid to Egypt, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/why_obama_shouldn_t_increase_democracy_aid_to_egypt)

In 2008, democracy and governance … has not yet been revived.

Political capital is key to securing his clean energy budget

Pheobe Draper, Brown Herald staff writer, 2/10 (http://www.browndailyherald.com/undergrad-finds-trend-in-climate-rhetoric-1.2698681#.Tza2qVF9nww)

Obama's change in rhetoric is an adaptation to … but energy production isn't quite so much."

Key to hegemony

Ray Mabus, Secretary of the Navy, 3/2/2011. http://www.navy.mil/navydata/people/secnav/Mabus/Speech/ARPAe02Mar11.pdf

To use your director’s own words, “Our dependence …damaged, becomes absolutely critical for the success of these ships. 

Impact Calculus

Naval power solves all their impacts – prevents crises from escalating

George Friedman, President of Stratfor, 2007.  “The Limitations and Necessity of Naval Power,” http://www.billoreilly.com/blog?action=viewBlog&blogID=79097567983522037

The argument for slashing the Navy can be tempting. But consider … the homeland. U.S. grand strategy has worked so well that this risk appears to be a phantom. 

Turns terrorism

David B. Sandalow, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Brookings Institute “Rising Oil Prices, Declining National Security” Testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs 5/22/2008

First, oil dependence strengthens Al Qaeda and other … deepens these problems, further enriching those who fund terrorists committed to our destruction.

oil dependence prevents the global spread of democracy

Sandalow 2008 [David B., Brookings Institute Senior Fellow “Freedom from Oil” New York: McGraw Hill 2008 pg 25]

Fourth, oil dependence undermines democracy and …, prices for oil would drop and democratic pressures would grow in many countries around the world.

Impact-Electric Weapons Module

Pentagon clean energy tech is key to electric weapons development

Ray Mabus, Secretary of the Navy, 3/2/2011. http://www.navy.mil/navydata/people/secnav/Mabus/Speech/ARPAe02Mar11.pdf

And it’s for these reasons and addressing these challenges … doing that repeatedly and reliably, and energy storage is a big part of that solution.

This allows conflict resolution with zero casualties 

Robert McGinnis, director of the Navy’s directed energy and electric weapons program office, 2004. http://www.navyleague.org/sea_power/may_04_10.php

Once operational, however, directed energy weapons could make … can simply make the enemy go away,” McGinnis said. 

Link Turns Heg

The politics link turns heg

Washington Institute 9 (Preventing a Cascade of Instability is endorsed by a distinguished group of policy practitioners: member of Congress Gary Ackerman (D-NY); U.S. senator Evan Bayh (D-IN); former CSIS International Security Program senior advisor Robert Einhorn; Washington InstituteMilitary and Security Studies Program director Michael Eisenstadt; former U.S. Strategic Command commander in chief Gen. (Ret.) Eugene Habiger; Washington Institute Gulf and Energy Policy Program director Simon Henderson; Duke University professor of public policy Bruce Jentleson; National Institute for Public Policy senior scholar Robert Joseph; American Enterprise Institute vice president for foreign and defense policy studies Danielle Pletka; former assistant secretary of state Stephen Rademaker; former special Middle East envoy and Washington Institute Ziegler distinguished fellow Dennis Ross; Defense Science Board chairmanWilliam Schneider, Jr.; former National Security Council senior director for Middle East affairs Michael Singh; U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nancy Soderberg; and James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies deputy director Leonard Spector, “Preventing a Cascade of Instability,” March 2009) http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC04.php?CID=308

Extended deterrence is most effective and credible if … more convincing. It would also not be useful to have prolonged tussles about arms transfers.

Uniqueness-A2: Thumpers

Budget debates top of the docket-take up all of Congress’ time next week

Forex Live 2/10 (Obama's budget to dominate hill debate, http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/02/10/obamas-budget-to-dominate-hill-debate-at-least-for-one-week/)

President Obama will unveil his fiscal year 2013 budget on …fiscal blueprints that set spending and revenue goals and make deficit estimates.

Uniqueness-A2: PTC Thumper

Political capital isn’t key-internal negotiations and election year pressure take care of it

Bloomberg 2/10 (Payroll Deadline nears as Democrats focus on Jobless benefits, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-10/payroll-deadline-nears-as-democrats-focus-on-jobless-benefits.html)

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max … or” an “uncertain way, two months to two months, it’s going to get done.”

A2 transportation

FAA and highways bill is a non-starter – payroll tax extension comes first

USA Today 1/12 (“House GOP struggles with how to legislate,” http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/story/2012-01-09/house-republican-majority/52509262/1)

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., has … in the Outer Continental Shelf and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. 

A2 obama doesn’t push

Every SINGLE MOVE Obama makes is hotly contested and intensely debated—there’s only risk of a link

TVNZ 09 (Jon Johansson, 10/8/09, "A presidential chess game", http://tvnz.co.nz/world-news/presidential-chess-game-3060277)

While only his most serious chess matches have … intensely debated. There is no let up for him.

A2 aid now

Massive foreign aid cuts

Susan Cornwell, Reuters correspondent, 12/19 (U.S. foreign aid escapes slashing cuts in fiscal 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/19/us-usa-aid-idUSTRE7BI1KO20111219)\

Foreign aid not related to war spending was cut by … a great deal of uncertainty hanging over" U.S. foreign aid.  

They might try to say that the plan comes from this money but reallocations still link to politics

Clark ‘11

(Lesley, “Obama can’t create many jobs without Congress’s help, analysts say,” McCLATCHY-TRIBUNE, 9-4, http://www.chieftain.com/news/associ ated_press/obama-can-t-create-many-jobs-without-congress-help-analysts/article_6654b9f6-d6a4-11e0-a14a-001cc4c002e0.html?mode=print)

But Republicans in Congress are dead set against … and the Constitutison, they’ve gotten slapped down.

Uniqueness-A2: Contraception Thumper

Obama’s compromise massively boosted capital

Tim Dickinson, Rolling Stone contributor, 2/10 (Obama Contraception Backtrack: Smart Politics or Screwup? http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/national-affairs/obama-contraception-backtrack-smart-politics-or-screwup-20120210)

An open-and-shut case of political malpractice. … constantly running full speed out over a cliff. 

UQ

And, military clean energy legislation is shielded from broader clean energy fights and will pass-hold their evidence to a very tight line of specificity

Chris Meehan, Clean Energy Authority contributor, 1/26 (SOTU reaffirms Obama's stance on solar, offers little new, say analysts, http://www.cleanenergyauthority.com/solar-energy-news/analysts-say-nothing-new-in-state-of-the-union-speech-012612/)

During 2012’s State of the Union address, Obama … the government the largest buyer of green energy,” he said.

AT Shale

Doesn’t cause energy independence – we just export it – and no shale development now

Dallas Observer 12 - http://blogs.dallasobserver.com/unfairpark/2012/01/shippin_shale_contd_energy_ind.php

Yeah, it doesn't make sense to us either. A couple

…But if you can open new markets up for your gas, increase demand and the price.

Links

Any new legislative action taken on Egypt costs Obama capital-starts a big fight with multiple divisions in Congress and spin is tied to the Muslim Brotherhood

James Oliphant, LAT correspondent, 3 February 2011 (Unrest in Egypt poses obstacle for Republicans, articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/03/nation/la-na-egypt-conservatives-20110203)

Some Republicans — such as Senate … "It's like saying Obama's fault the sun comes out tomorrow," he said.

Link Turn Shield

The link is unidirectional-no scenario for a turn at all

Rajiv Tarigopula, Harvard Political Review contributor, 14 January 2011 (President Obama's Political Capital, http://hpronline.org/hprgument/president-obamas-political-capital/)

The President of Change is going to have to grapple with …maybe that’s not such a bad thing after all.

PC Key

Political capital theory is true 

-this evidence cites longitudinal statistical analysis

-PC leads to deal-cutting, adds to presidential attractiveness and results in vote-switching

Beckman 10 – Professor of Political Science

Matthew N. Beckman, Professor of Political Science @ UC-Irvine, 2010, “Pushing the Agenda: Presidential Leadership in U.S. Lawmaking, 1953-2004,” pg. 61-62

For cases where the president wants to lobby but … floor fight for pivotal voters' support.