Round 6, Pitt RR
Vs. Kansas PW, Judge: J. Herndon
“Box Score”
1NC
1. PTC Politics
2. Turkey CP
3. Regime Change CP
4. Topicality – Directly Political
5. Russia Arms Sales DA (On Case)
6. Russia Relations Turn (On Case)
7. Iran Prolif Turn ( On Case)
2NC
1. Politics
2. Turkey CP
1NR
1. Regime Change CP
2. Case Turns - Russia Relations
2NR
1. Politics
2. Case
a. Russia Relations Turns
b. Defense – instability and prolif inev
Citations
TOPICALITY – 1NC
A) Interpretation: “Democracy assistance” must be directly political—Social and economic assistance are not topical
Burnell, ‘1 (Peter, PhD, Professor of Politics and International Studies at University of Warwick, Democracy Assistance: International Cooperation for Democratization, pg 4)
Thus the notions of democracy that lie at the … models of democracy that are judged too risky to entertain at home.
B) violation – aff only indirectly supports democracy – protest techniques are bidirectional
C) Vote Neg for Limits and ground : the infinite number of indirect, economic, and social aid programs makes the Neg research burden impossibly large and unpredictable, they make the topic bidirectional and undermine our preparedness for all debates
POLITICS – 1NC
Will pass-GOP will be forced to compromise now
Reuters 1/13 (Tea Party may get rebuffed in tax cut showdown, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/13/us-usa-taxes-payroll-republicans-idUSTRE80C0BY20120113)
Some Tea Party lawmakers, however, see round two of the … offsetting the cost with spending cuts."
Democracy assistance drains political capital
McLaughlin, contributing writer – The Washington Diplomat, 5/31/’11 (Seth, “Key Foreign Policy Players Try to Master Capitol Hill,” The Washington Diplomat)
But it's not just politicos in Washington … Service officers was also frozen, and USAID operating expenses were trimmed by $39 million.
Political capital is key- prior wins don’t translate into future wins, only a sustained and focused push can get it done
Allister Bull and Caren Boha, Gulf News correspondents, 12/27 (Obama: hero of the middle class? http://gulfnews.com/business/opinion/obama-hero-of-the-middle-class-1.957304)
For US President Barack Obama, it was a political victory that has given his … into the pockets of American households in 2012.
It’s key to the economy- failure to extend for a full year collapses recovery and future growth
NPR 12/22 (What's the economic impact if the tax break dies? http://www.npr.org/2011/12/22/144072081/whats-the-economic-impact-if-the-tax-break-dies)
For the full year, the average household — … and consumer spending," the firm concluded.
Extinction
Kemp 10. Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center, served in the White House under Ronald Reagan, special assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs on the National Security Council Staff, Former Director, Middle East Arms Control Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010, The East Moves West: India, China, and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, p. 233-4
The second scenario, called Mayhem and Chaos, … two-thirds of the planet’s population.
POLITICS – 2NC
Global economic crisis causes war---statistics and empirics
Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215
Thus, the answer to the first question set out at the beginning of this section, … As such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.
Economy key to heg and economic leadership– china
Morici 11 (Peter Morici, professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland School, and former Chief Economist at the US International Trade Commission. “US risks Pacific turnaround,” 10/28/11)
Hard reality number one is the interactions between … independently sustain its standard of living or ensure its own security, or worse bankrupt and at China's doorstep for a bail out.
Obama has sufficient political capital to withstand Keystone controversy
NPR 1/18 (Dead pipeline lives on as election-year issue)
Obama is banking on persuading enough voters that his desire to … for the pipeline could be considered.
Huge political win for Obama-smoothed over business ties prior to the announcement
Bloomberg 1/19 (Obama's rejection of pipeline sets up campaign battle, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-19/obama-s-rejection-of-keystone-pipeline-sets-up-campaign-battle.html)
“The rushed and arbitrary deadline insisted on by … decision shows that he’s not “in the pocket of big oil.”
And, Obama has effectively put the blame on the GOP and Congress
USA Today 1/18 (Republicans killed Keystone pipeline, http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/story/2012-01-18/Obama-administration-Keystone-pipeline/52653650/1)
In December, when Republicans in Congress proposed a 60-day deadline… puts folks back to work and reduces our dependence on oil.
Bond market recovery proves Euro recovery now
Barron's 1/21, online news service on global market (http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703879704577166872508752802.html?mod=googlenews_wsj?mod=googlenews_barrons)
U.S. economic data continued to paint a brighter picture, …financial lifeline to banks in the form of new long-term loans
No collapse and European Central Bank checks
Economist 12/31 (House and dry, http://www.economist.com/node/21542187?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ecb)
WHEN economists think of the financial system, it is usually as a … banks from turmoil in the funding markets.
Europe collapse won’t affect the US
Bloomberg 12/29 (U.S. Stocks rise on bets economy will weather Europe's crisis, http://news.businessweek.com/article.asp?documentKey=1376-LWYKNB07SXKX01-1F92CVIJG9NEJTKK7BRRVVQPIA)
U.S. stocks rose, restoring the 2011 gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index … “The fact that they got it off and the price didn't go up was probably the tiny positive.”
Massive foreign aid cuts
Susan Cornwell, Reuters correspondent, 12/19 (U.S. foreign aid escapes slashing cuts in fiscal 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/19/us-usa-aid-idUSTRE7BI1KO20111219)\
Foreign aid not related to war spending … "there is a great deal of uncertainty hanging over" U.S. foreign aid.
Reallocating aid costs capital
Carothers 9, president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9
(Thomas, vice. In this capacity, he oversees the Democracy and Rule of Law Program and Carnegie Europe, practiced international and financial law at Arnold & Porter and served as an attorney-adviser in the Office of the Legal Adviser of the U.S. Department of State, A.B., Harvard College; M.Sc., London School of Economics; J.D., Harvard Law School, 2009, pages 48-49, carnegieendowment.org/files/revitalizing_democracy_assistance.pdf, accessed 12-30-11)
In any event, the Obama administration has so far not signaled an intention to attempt … and a willingness to take on entrenched interests in many quarters.
(AT: EMPLOYMENT TURN) This is wrong and based on faulty analysis-grounded economic studies prove
Jeremy Schwartz is an assistant professor of economics at Loyola University Maryland, 12/20 (http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2011-12-20/news/bs-ed-unemployment-benefits-20111220_1_unemployment-insurance-health-insurance-unemployment-rate)
Those who look at unemployment insurance from the welfare perspective like to claim, … unemployed than there are available job openings.
These critiques are wrong-unemployment benefits have no causal connection to the unemployment rate-three reasons
IBT, 12/15 (Unemployment Extension 2012, http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/267901/20111215/unemployment-extension-2012-politicians-toy-citizens-food.htm)
One of the cruelest myths is that most of these people are lazy, … has a moral obligation to feed its poor citizens in an extremely difficult jobs market.
No adverse incentives from unemployment benefits, we control long term uniqueness
Shulman, 9/15/09 - Chair, Board of Directors National Employment Law Project (Beth, CQ Congressional Testimony, lexis)
5. The Economy, not Unemployment Benefits, Are to Blame for Long- term Joblessness… people from looking for jobs jobs simply do not exist.
Also makes recovery impossible and economic miscalc likely-means small external shocks can cause collapse
Neil Irwin, Washington Post staff writer, 12/21 (Allowing payroll tax cuts to expire could harm economic recovery)
If Congress does not reach agreement on …said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Group.
Unemployment benefits are key to overwhelm every thumper-fuels consumer spending cycles that are key to recovery
NYT 1/6 (U.S. Economy Gains Steam as 200,000 Jobs are Added, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/07/business/economy/us-adds-200000-jobs-unemployment-rate-at-8-5.html)
Economists continued to warn of potential dangers …the wage increases necessary to sustain that spending
The economy is no longer resilient – Consumer spending varies too greatly
Economist 8 The Economist Newspaper, November 22, “United States: The end of the affair; Spending and the economy”, Vol. 389, Iss. 8607, Proquest
An important reason why the American economy has been so resilient and recessions … of thrift likely has begun," he says.
And, consumer spending is key to the economy-single biggest determinant of GDP growth
Market Watch 10/28 (Consumers spend more, save less in September, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumers-spend-more-save-less-in-september-2011-10-28?link=MW_latest_news)
Spending by consumers represents the single biggest …Read more on initial U.S. estimate of GDP growth for the third quarter.
Political capital theory is true
Beckman 10 – Professor of Political Science. Matthew N. Beckman, Professor of Political Science @ UC-Irvine, 2010, “Pushing the Agenda: Presidential Leadership in U.S. Lawmaking, 1953-2004,” pg. 61-62
For cases where the president wants to lobby but has limited political capital … without having to prevail in an all-out floor fight for pivotal voters' support.
TURKEY CP – 1NC
Text: The government of the Republic of Turkey should provide technical assistance for the democratic opposition to Bashar Al-Assad.
The counterplan solves best—key to Turkey leadership
BAROUD 2011 (Ramzy, internationally syndicated journalist, “Arabs Should Follow Turkish Model,” Gulf News, June 22, http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/arabs-should-follow-turkish-model-1.824859)
The third consecutive victory of Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) … those who tailor democracy to serve their specific political agendas and military ambitions.
Turkey should take the lead in Syria
Suat Kiniklioglu, Today's Zaman, 1/11/2012, "It is time for Turkish leadership on Syria," www.todayszaman.com/columnist-268290-it-is-time-for-turkish-leadership-on-syria.html
The only outcome that might work under these conditions is a coalition of countries who are willing to … the Syrian imbroglio for us. We will have to do it. Given Mr. Assad's recent defiant speech he seems to be calling for it.
Turkish leadership key to Balkan Stability
FEFFER 2010 (John, co-director of Foreign Policy In Focus at the Institute for Policy Studies, “Stealth Superpower: How Turkey Is Chasing China to Become the Next Big Thing,” June 14, http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/06/14-0)
A friend to all sides, Turkey is offering its services as a diplomatic middleman, … brouhaha around the cartoon depiction of Mohammed, and hosting U.N. meetings on Somalia.
Nuclear war
COULOUMBIS 1996 (Kostas, Prof of International Relations, U of Athens, Greece in a Changing Europe, p 168)
Regional setting (major assumptions): a) Nationalist (chauvinist/populist) elites rise to power in most regional states… in an environment in which nuclear weapons still predominate.
TURKEY CP – 2NC
The permutation undermines Turkish leadership—Turkey will be perceived as a tool of the US
BAGCI AND SINKAYA 2007 (Huseyin Bagci, Professor, Department of International Relations, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, and Bayram Sinkaya, Research Assistant, Middle East Technical University - Department of International Relations, “The Greater Middle East Initiative and Turkey: the AKP's Perspective,” in N. Goren & A. Nachmani (eds.), The Importance of Being European: Turkey, the EU, and the Middle East, Jerusalem, The European Forum at the Hebrew University, http://metu.academia.edu/BayramSinkaya/Papers/209843/THE_GREATER_MIDDLE_EAST_INITIATIVE_AND_TURKEY_THE_AKPS_PERSPECTIVE)
However, cooperating with the United States within the GMEI has not been easy for the AKP … the AKP needs to acts on its own and reduce outside interference as much as possible.
The US democratic model is unpopular and people hate the US—the plan can’t change that
CNN 7-15-2011 (“Obama losing popularity in Arab world,” http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/07/15/obama-losing-popularity-in-arab-world/)
With the 2008 election of Barack Obama, favorable attitudes… toward the U.S. more than doubled in many Arab countries. But in the two years since his famous “Cairo speech…positive impact on the region. In Egypt, the mood is mixed. Only in the Gulf States are optimism and satisfaction levels high.
Their ev – turkey solves
Nasr ‘11 – Professor of Politics at Tufts University
Vali Nasr is professor at Tufts University, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the author of “The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future.”. August 27, 2011. “If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly”. The New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?pagewanted=all
NONE of this will benefit democracy or American interests. … President Assad’s provocations.
REGIME CHANGE CP – 1NC
The United States federal government should:
--expand the ban on investment to include foreign companies and expand sanctions to include banks Syria uses to circumvent sanctions, its energy industry, financial and banking sector, telecommunication companies assisting the Assad regime, and Lebanese banks
--impose extraterritoriality sanctions
--put in place a travel ban on certain Syrian officials
--coordinate with European and regional allies and pressure them to expand and/or establish similar economic sanctions against the Assad regime, including freezing Syrian accounts, not selling Syria oil, cracking down on telecommunication companies assisting the regime, and sanctions targeted at Syria’s nuclear and missile programs
--expel Syria’s ambassador from the United States
--not militarily intervene in Syria
--working through European and regional allies, pressure Syrian military officers to abandon the regime
The CP’s litanies of actions solves regime change and US leadership but doesn’t spend money on foreign aid, solves the aff – 1ac evidence
Badran 9/22 Tony Badran, Research Fellow @ Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Axis of Abuse: U.S. Human Rights toward Iran and Syria, Part II”. Hearing before House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia. September 22, 2011. http://www.defenddemocracy.org/stuff/uploads/documents/Badran_Testimony_FINAL_9_21.pdf
The Obama administration now needs to make up for lost time. Having lacked assertiveness, … for the opportunity to testify before the Committee today.
Their other solvency card says the CP is another, equally valid option to solve the aff
Fly et al. ’11 Jamie M. Fly (FPI), Robert Zarate (FPI), Mark Dubowitz (FDD), Reuel Marc Gerecht (FDD), Tony Badran (FDD), Ammar Abdulhamid (FDD), and John Hannah (FDD). The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) for the Syrian Working Group. November 8, 2011. “Towards a Post-Assad Syria: Options for the United States and Like-Minded Nations to Further Assist the Anti-Regime Syrian Opposition”. http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/towards-a-post-assad-syria/
Given that a collective response from the U.N. Security Council is unlikely, …. that an Italian-based company doing just that:
REGIME CHANGE CP – 2NC
Solvency card concludes we should arm the resistance – plan doesn’t
Fly et al. ’11. Jamie M. Fly (FPI), Robert Zarate (FPI), Mark Dubowitz (FDD), Reuel Marc Gerecht (FDD), Tony Badran (FDD), Ammar Abdulhamid (FDD), and John Hannah (FDD). The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) for the Syrian Working Group. November 8, 2011. “Towards a Post-Assad Syria: Options for the United States and Like-Minded Nations to Further Assist the Anti-Regime Syrian Opposition”. http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/towards-a-post-assad-syria/
At the other end of the assistance spectrum, the United States could consider … Official American rhetoric on this issue ought to change.
(AT: MB TURN)
The Bros won’t take power but, even if they did, it would make things better
Michael J Totten, foreign correspondent and foreign-policy analyst, 10/10/2011, “Assad Really Does Need to Go,” http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/10/10/assad-regime-change/
Anyway, let’s assume the worst for Syria and posit that the Muslim Brotherhood takes over, … after the fall of Bashar al-Assad would be less bad than the status quo.
Sunni-dominant government won’t be extremist
Goldstone 11, Jack A. Goldstone, Professor at George Mason University's School of Public Policy, May/June 2011, “Understanding the Revolutions of 2011,” Foreign Affairs, 90.3, Ebsco
Some Western governments, having long supported Ben Ali and Mubarak as bulwarks against a rising tide of radical Islam…the two chief goals of all recent anti-sultanistic revolutions.
STABILITY ADVANTAGE ANSWERS (RUSSIA TURNS)
There’s no instability – neutral observers and CIA analysis prove
Aisling Byrne is Projects Co-ordinator with Conflicts Forum and is based in Beirut, 1/6/2012, "The NeoCon Propaganda Machine Pushing “Regime Change” in Syria," www.counterpunch.org/2012/01/06/the-neocon-propaganda-machine-pushing-“regime-change”-in-syria/#.TwvDO0CYJgs.twitter
Recent reports have cast serious doubt on the accuracy of the false scenario peddled daily by … to delay their defection” until regional conditions improve.
Evidence that there’s violence is biased by pro-regime change forces
Aisling Byrne is Projects Co-ordinator with Conflicts Forum and is based in Beirut, 1/6/2012, "The NeoCon Propaganda Machine Pushing “Regime Change” in Syria," www.counterpunch.org/2012/01/06/the-neocon-propaganda-machine-pushing-“regime-change”-in-syria/#.TwvDO0CYJgs.twitter
A rereading of it, together with the more recent “Towards a Post-Assad Syria” … protesters killed and numbers of people attending demonstrations – the pillars of the narrative – all are part of the “regime change” alliance.
Russia solves slow, stable reform now – the plan boxes them out of Syria and causes violence*
Day Press News, 1/17/2012, "A “Russian Initiative” to guide Syria," www.dp-news.com/en/detail.aspx?articleid=108761
Contrary to what many people believe, the biggest pressure currently being applied on Damascus is not … that a President has admitted that there is such a thing called “opposition” in Syria.
Russia’s support of Arab League resolution protects its interests when Assad eventually falls
Bridget Kendall, Diplomatic correspondent, BBC, 12/16/2011, “Syria unrest: Russia pulled two ways,” http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16223754
Remember what happened with Libya. Once it became clear that Col Muammar … Russia's priority may well be its interests, and how to secure whatever it can salvage for the longer term.
That’s key to Russian arms sales
Nicholas Blanford, CSM Correspondent, 9/19/2011, “Why Russia is blocking international action against Syria,” http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0919/Why-Russia-is-blocking-international-action-against-Syria/(page)/2
Russian-Syrian ties are perhaps strongest in the field of arms sales. … is waiting to see if the new authorities in Tripoli will honor some $10 billion worth of business deals reached with the Qaddafi regime.
Arms sales key to Russian economy
RIVLIN 2005 – Senior Research Fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv University (Dr. Paul, “The Russian Economy and Arms Exports to the Middle East,” The Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies)
In the years 1994-98, Russian arms exports to the Middle East exceeded $2 billion and those of the US totaled $17.6 billion.2 … it had little to sell abroad except oil, gas, and arms, and it was forced to rely heavily on fluctuating income from oil and gas sales.
Russian economic decline causes nuclear war
FILGER 2009 (Sheldon, author and blogger for the Huffington Post, “Russian Economy Faces Disastrous Free Fall Contraction” http://www.globaleconomiccrisis.com/blog/archives/356)
In Russia historically, economic health and political stability are … It may be that the financial impact of the Global Economic Crisis is its least dangerous consequence.
US interference in Syria kills relations
Steve Gutterman, Reuters, 10/5/2011, “Analysis: Don't meddle: Russia's warning in Syria veto,” http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/05/us-syria-russia-idUSTRE79440O20111005
Russia's veto of a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning Syria's crackdown on protests sends a …allowing NATO air strikes in Libya by refraining from using its veto in a Security Council vote last March.
Russian relations key to stop nuclear war and global conflict
Cohen 2000 – professor of Russian studies at New York University (Stephen, Failed Crusade, p. 196-205)
These assurances are manifestly untrue and, coming from U.S. officials, editorialists, an scholars, inexplica¬bly myopic and irresponsible. …, but our children and grandchildren will reap the benefits or pay the price.
Plan leaves Syria in chaos – slow transition key
Jacky Hougy, the “IDF Radio" (Galei Zahal) correspondent for Arab Affairs, 12/14/2011, "Assad can still lead Syria to democracy," www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000706768
In the manner of despotic regimes, the Syrian regime did not acquaint its people with democratic values. … his principles after ruling for thirty years. The name of the game is respect.
Fast regime collapse causes instability
Samia Nakhoul, Reuters, 12/16/2011, "Analysis: Turkey and allies want Syria's Assad out, just not yet," www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/16/us-syria-turkey-idUSTRE7BF0P820111216
Turkey, with strong backing from its Arab and Western allies, very much wants Syrian President … resumed support for Kurdish insurgents in the southeast.
No Saudi Iran War
Alexander, 10-10. Vatutin Alexander, political analyst, 10-10, “ Saudi Arabia-Iran tensions posing threat to global oil market,” http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/10/10/58461134.html
Trying to predict the consequences of confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, … it will have to deal with the alliance."
Shared interests stop great power intervention
Gelb, 10 – President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations. He was a senior official in the U.S. Defense Department from 1967 to 1969 and in the State Department from 1977 to 1979 (Leslie, Foreign Affairs, “GDP Now Matters More Than Force: A U.S. Foreign Policy for the Age of Economic Power,” November/December, proquest)
Also reducing the likelihood of conflict today is that there is no arena … but they will stop well short of direct confrontation.
STABILITY ADVANTAGE (RUSSIA TURNS) – 1NR
Extinction
Bostrom 2002 (Nick Bostrom, 2002. Professor of Philosophy and Global Studies at Yale. "Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards," 38, www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.html)
A much greater existential risk emerged with the build-up of nuclear …or thwart humankind’s potential permanently.
Relations check Iran
NTI 9 [Global Security Newswire, “Russia Open to U.S. Suggestions on Improving Relations, Curbing Iran” http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20090318_4374.php 3/19]
Russian leaders have shown an interest in improving relations with Washington, … Russia's cooperation could contribute substantially to a successful outcome," the report adds (Nixon Center release, March 16).
Russia econ key to global econ
DELANEY 1-26-2011 (Martin, “Russia: The Wild East,” Investment And Pensions Europe)
However, many would argue they are wrong. "There are important reforms going on in Russia … Russia may be viewed as the wild east of the BRIC nations, but now is the time that the great fortunes of the future are being made.
Arms exports are key to Russian conventional power
WEITZ 2007 (Richard, Senior Fellow and Director, Project Management at Hudson Institute, “Russia’s military-industrial complex” June 4, http://cffss.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=4947)
The primary purpose of this increased spending is to push new weapons systems from …Russia’s diplomatic interests by strengthening ties with recipient states.
Nuke war
LAMBERT AND MILLER 1997 [Stephen and David, USAF Institute for National Security Studies, “Russia’s Crumbling Tactical Nuclear Weapons Complex: An Opportunity for Arms Control” April, http://fas.org/irp/threat/ocp12.htm]
Nuclear Dependency in the Face of Conventional Contingencies. … for the foreseeable future Russia will be forced to rely on nuclear weapons to ensure its security
Russian economy is not resilient—incomplete privatization makes it vulnerable to shocks
BBC WORLDWIDE MONITORING 10-10-2008 (Text of report by popular Russian newspaper Moskovskiy Komsomolets on 6 October)
Over the almost two decades that have passed since the collapse of the USSR, … long term is not competitive under crisis conditions."
Russia-US cooperation over Syria now – characterizes general positive trend in relations
Masha Lipman, writer at Russian current affairs website Yezhednevnyy Zhurnal, 1/9/2012, “2012 US presidential campaign implications for Russia eyed,” BBC Worldwide Monitoring, Posted 1/11/2012, Lexis
The foreign policy decisions of Russia, … Islamists to come to power in Syria to replace Assad.
Relations are improving
Alexander Konovalov, President of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Analysis, 1/11/2012, "Will McFaul be able to improve Russia-US relations?" english.ruvr.ru/2012/01/11/63667163.html
Alexander Konovalov: As they say, hope dies last. … And that will take place in both countries – the USA and Russia.
Reset = successful
Andrew C. Kuchins, Director and Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11/2/2011, “Russia-U.S. relations after 2012 elections,” http://en.ria.ru/analysis/20111102/168361206.html
Well, the main achievements are – one, of course, … Russia and also Russia’s engagement in global economy.
Russia influence works
Khaleej Tim es, 10/9/2011, “Mounting pressure on Syria,” http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle08.asp?xfile=data/editorial/2011/October/editorial_October17.xml§ion=editorial
In an interesting development, Russia has … must go if unable to implement reforms.
Iraq influence makes the Arab League proposal work – peaceful transition
Khaleej Times, 12/19/2011, "Mediation can work," www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle08.asp?xfile=data/editorial/2011/December/editorial_December35.xml§ion=editorial
It’s a good sign that Syria is still being reached with a dialogue format. … for military intervention are too serious to be ignored.
Aid now just means any opposition government would collapse and cause civil war
Landis 11—Director: Center for Middle East Studies and Associate Professor, University of Oklahoma (Josh, Syrians must win the revolution on their own, mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/09/syrians_must_win_the_revolution_on_their_own)
A growing chorus of policy experts in Washington are calling for the United States to get serious about Syria…."If we want to own Syria after the revolution, we must win this struggle on our own."
IRAN ADVANTAGE (PROLIF TURNS) – 1NC
This advantage doesn’t exist – any Assad collapse hurts Iran – the plan isn’t key, that’s their own Nassar evidence whch doesn’t even hint at saying assistance is key to influence the next regime – here’s more evidence
Mahan Abedin, analyst of Middle East politics, 8/17/2011, “Iran banks all on Assad's survival,” http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MH17Ak03.html
But outside the confines of officialdom, while most independent Iranian experts …banks of the Mediterranean Sea will become increasingly vulnerable.
Iran is checked now
Greenblatt 11 (Alan Greenblatt, staff write for Governing Magazine, “Has Iran Become Less Dangerous?” 11/9/11) http://www.npr.org/2011/11/09/142169154/has-iran-become-less-dangerous
A new report by the International Atomic Energy Agency … within the last three decades of the Islamic Republic."
Engagement agenda on Iran will be successful now – if it fails, proliferation and war are likely
Barry Blechman et al, co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center, 12/19/2011, “TOWARD A DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION ON THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR ISSUE: LETTER TO PRESIDENT OBAMA,” States News Service, Lexis
We write to convey our strongly held view that … of disastrous military confrontation.
Obama’s avoiding angering Iran now
Matthew Duss, National Security Editor at American Progress, 3/29/2011, “Don’t Taint a Victory for Iranian Human Rights,” http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/03/iran_human_rights.html
Through his engagement policy, President Obama has been… support for the MEK could dangerously blur.
Pro-democracy efforts in Syria would enrage Iran – obstruct Obama’s negotiations agenda
Matt Gurney, columnist and editor at Canada’s National Post, 4/27/2011, “Libya, Syria and Obama’s Double Standards,” http://frontpagemag.com/2011/04/27/libya-syria-and-obamas-double-standards/2/
On the other hand, the answer to why the administration’s foreign policy … one of the few things that Syria, Iran and Obama could all agree on.
Iranian prolif causes nuclear war
Wimbush 7 (S. Enders, senior fellow at Hudson Institute and director of its Center for Future Security Strategies, “The End of Deterrence: A nuclear Iran will change everything,” January 11th, http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/013/154auoqp.asp?pg=1)
Iran is fast building its position as the Middle East's political and military hegemon, … and where deterrence, once broken, cannot be restored.
Heg resilient
Kaplan and Kaplan 2011 – *national correspondent for The Atlantic, senior fellow at CNAS, **30-year CIA vet, vice chairman of the National Intelligence Council (2/23, Robert and Stephen, The National Interest, “America primed”, http://nationalinterest.org/article/america-primed-4892, WEA)
But in spite of the seemingly inevitable and rapid diminution of U.S. eminence, … China and Russia enjoy nothing comparable.
Scholarships refutes credibility as a factor in IR
Fettweis 10 [Christopher J., fifth year doctoral student in the University of Maryland's Department of Government and Politics. His primary interests include US foreign and national security policies. His dissertation, currently titled The Geopolitics of Energy and the Obsolescence of Major War, focuses on the relationship … usually military action, no matter how small the issue or large the odds.
No impact to LNG terrorism
Farrell 2007 – analyst for the Naval War College Review and Camber Corporation, US Naval Academy Grad (Richard, US Naval War College Review, 60.3, "Maritime terrorism: focusing on the probable", http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Maritime+terrorism:+focusing+on+the+probable.-a0169380022)
A recent study by the ioMosaic Corporation draws upon field measurements, … or Megabucks lottery several times simultaneously. For impact, p. 22.
Current security is sufficient to prevent major blowout
Lloyd’s Register 2004 (“Statement on LNG risks from Lloyd's Register North America, Inc,” http://www.lr.org/News+and+Events/News+Archive/2004/Statement+on+LNG+risks+from+Lloyds+Register+North+America+Inc.htm)
LNG is transported globally in insulated tanks on specialised ships… but it is clear that it is not supported by fact.
Alt causes kill US cred
Bar 11 - Shmuel Bar, director of studies at the Institute for Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel, April 2011, “America’s Fading Middle East Influence,” Hoover Policy Review, online: http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/73161
The policies of the United States under the Obama administration … has been dramatically degraded.
IRAN ADVANTAGE – 1NR
Any post assad regime opposes Iran
Auken 1/19 (Bill Van Auken, “Obama backs regime change in Syria amid calls for intervention,” 1/19/11) http://www.wsws.org/articles/2012/jan2012/syri-j19.shtml
“If there is no intervention and political will to stop Assad's crimes remains absent… Iran's influence in the Arab world.”
Turkey will check Iran
Dr. Marwan Kabalan is the dean of the Faculty of International Relations and Diplomacy, Kalamoon University, Damascus, Syria, 12/9/2011, "Turkey's bid to restore balance," gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/turkey-s-bid-to-restore-balance-1.947514
As the US retreats, Turkey, alongside the Arab Gulf States, … Yet, the geo-political factor remains the driving force of this shift.
Credibility and domino theory are empirically denied – the theory their cards are based on is flawed
Walt 11 (Stephen M. Walt, professor of International Affairs at Harvard University, “Where Do Bad Ideas Come From? And why don't they go away?” Jan 2011) http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/02/where_do_bad_ideas_come_from?page=full
Yet this sadly turns out to be no universal law: There is no inexorable evolutionary march that replaces our bad, old ideas with smart, new ones. If anything, the story of the last few decades of international relations … backwater will unleash a cascade of falling dominoes.
