Harvard » Harvard Dimitrijevic-Taylor Aff

Harvard Dimitrijevic-Taylor Aff

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09/05/11
  • GSU Aff Rd 1

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • C


    • Advantage 1 is Stability

      The US has been silent on Bahrain and refused to engage the opposition—this guarantees an eventual meltdown in Bahrain
      ULRICHSEN 2011 (Kristian Coates Ulrichsen is a research fellow at the London School of Economics, “Gulf States: studious silence falls on Arab Spring,” Open Democracy, April 25, http://www.opendemocracy.net/kristian-coates-ulrichsen/gulf-states-studious-silence-falls-on-arab-spring)
      The choice to suppress demonstrations … explosion could be greater still.

      Bahraini instability draws in the US and causes Iran Saudi war
      Salman Shaikh 11, Director, Brookings Doha Center, 3-23-2011, “The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers,” Brookings, The Bahrain Crisis and Its Regional Dangers
      While US and international attention … the future of the country.

      Draws in Pakistan and nukes

      UPI 8-22 (“Pakistan extends influence in Gulf states,” http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/08/22/Pakistan-extends-influence-in-gulf-states/UPI-58671314030630/)

      The tiny Persian Gulf kingdom … Saudi Arabian oil and treasure.

      That escalates globally
      Ash Jain 11, visiting fellow, 8-2011, “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions: Troubling Scenarios.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/pubPDFs/PolicyFocus114.pdf
      As it looks for plausibly … the face of a nuclear Iran.

      US engagement solves
      POMED 11, Project on Middle East Democracy, 7-18-2011, “POMED Notes: Maryam al-Khawaja – An Update on Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/blog/2011/07/pomed-notes-maryam-al-khawaja-an-update-on-bahrain.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
      Al-Khawaja is also concerned … and compromising American national interests.

      Contention two is bases

      Bahraini opposition groups are pressuring the US to withdraw the Fifth Fleet now but there’s no alternative
      DIETZ 2011 (David, “Should the US Reconsider its Relationship with Bahrain?” The Mideaster, April 21,  http://themideaster.com/2011/04/21/should-the-us-reconsider-its-relationship-with-bahrain/)
      Matar Ebrahim Matar, a leader of … fleet would be to Saudi.

      Democracy assistance is critical to maintain the fleet—failure to encourage dialogue will force withdrawal which collapses American military power and deterrence
      STIMSON CENTER 2011 (The Henry L. Stimson Center is a nonprofit, nonpartisan institution devoted to enhancing international peace and security through a unique combination of rigorous analysis and outreach, “Anchors Away: The future of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain,” July 21, http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/the-us-fifth-fleet-in-bahrain/)
      The home base of the … of these scenarios from materializing.

      The plan is critical to engage opposition groups and maintain support for US naval presence in Bahrain
      COOLEY AND NEXON 2011 (Alexander, Assoc Prof Poli Sci at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies; Daniel, Assoc Prof School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#)
      It is time for U.S. officials … after it is under way.

      Scenario One: the Gulf

      Despite opposition to US power there’s no alternative—long-term withdrawal is inevitable, but no one else can guarantee Middle Eastern security in the short-term
      FREEMAN 2011 (Chas, Ambassador Freeman is a retired U.S. Foreign Service officer and president emeritus of the Middle East Policy Council, “The Arab Reawakening: Strategic Implications,” Middle East Policy, Summer, Lexis)
      These changes are occurring as … arena than in foreign policy.

      Lowering US commitment to the Gulf region increases the risk of conflict
      Cohen 11 (CSIS Group Report, Craig S. Cohen, Jon B. Alterman, Ernest Z. Bower, Victor D. Cha, Heather A. Conley, Stephen J. Flanagan, Bonnie S. Glaser, Michael J. Green, Andrew C. Kuchins, Haim Malka, Teresita C. Schaffer, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of US Power,” June 2011)
      http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf
      There is no region in the world where the perception of a rise or decline in U.S. power should be
      more consequential. Ceteris paribus, a sense … more conflict-averse Iranian behavior.
      Yet, a series of conversations with senior leaders in the Gulf in May 2010 and subsequent research
      suggest that U.S. power is merely … set of actions and statements.

      Naval presence is key to deter Iran
      Goure and Grant 9 (Dr. Daniel Goure, Vice President with the Lexington Institute, a nonprofit public-policy research organization, was a member of the 2001 Department of Defense Transition Team, erved as a senior analyst on national security and defense issues with the Center for Naval Analyses, Science Applications International Corporation, SRS Technologies, R&D Associates and System Planning Corporation, was the Deputy Director, International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Dr. Rebecca Grant,  Director of the General Billy Mitchell Institute for Airpower Studies at the Air Force Association, report is under consideration for publication in the Naval War College Review, “U.S. Naval Options for Influencing Iran,” April 2009) http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/library/resources/documents/Defense/us-naval-options.pdf
      Engaging Iran is both a difficult … to deterrence of Iranian aggression.


      Left unchecked, Iranian regional aggression causes nuclear war
      Ben-Meir 7 (Alon Ben-Meir professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, Realpolitik: Ending Iran’s defiance, 2007, http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2007/02/06/Realpolitik-Ending-Irans-defiance/UPI-69491170778058/)
      Feeling emboldened and unrestrained, Tehran … not halting its nuclear program.

      Crisis over Iran leads to massive oil shocks
      Phillips 10. James Philip. Senior Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs at the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation. Bachelor's Degree in International Relations from Brown University, Master's Degree, M.A.L.D. in International Security Studies from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University . “An Israeli Preventive Attack on Iran’s Sites: Implications for the US” January 15, 2010. http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/01/an-israeli-preventive-attack-on-iran-nuclear-sites-implications-for-the-us
      # Mitigate the impact of a … the survival of the regime.

      Oil shocks cause extinction
      Roberts 04 (Paul, Regular Contributor to … survival than terrorism or evenwar.


      Scenario Two: Global Power

      The perception of American bias towards Bahrain’s government feeds a global movement against US basing
      COOLEY AND NEXON 2011 (Alexander, Assoc Prof Poli Sci at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies; Daniel, Assoc Prof School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#)
      The use of force and foreign troops against …autocratic friends under the bus

      Forward basing key to deterrence
      Gerson and Whiteneck 9 (Michael Gerson and Daniel Whiteneck, CNA Strategic Studies, “Deterrence and Influence: The Navy's Role in Preventing War,” March 2009) http://www.cna.org/research/2009/deterrence-influence-navys-role-preventing-war
      In general deterrence, the intended … assure allies and deter adversaries.

      Even the perception of kickout kills credibility
      Koplovsky 06 (Michael Koplovsky, current Director, Policy and Public Outreach, Bureau of Oceans, Environment and Science, U.S. Department of State; fmr. foreign service officer, US Department of State, 10-23-06, “Precipitating the Inevitable: The Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain,” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA463412&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)
      Former Joint Chiefs of Staff … and contributes to economic development.

      Conventional military deterrence is key – economic power isn’t enough
      Grant 09 – Research Analyst @ Lexington Institute w/ emphasis on joint doctrine, air power, aerospace defense [Dr. Rebecca Grant (PhD in International Relations from the London School of Economics and Former lecturer at Air University and Air Command and Staff College, Maxwell Air Force Base), “Global Deterrence: The Role of F-22,” Lexington Institute, February 2009]

      However, the balance may … or more serious face-offs.

      And, root causes are irrelevant and inevitable—deterrence is the controlling factor for major war
      John Norton Moore, 2004, Director of … gamble not worth the risk.15

      Next, a lack of forward basing collapses overall US naval power
      WHITENECK 2010 (Daniel Whiteneck • Michael Price • Neil Jenkins •Peter Swartz, CNA Analysis & Solutions, “The Navy at a Tipping Point: Maritime Dominance at Stake?” March, http://www.public.navy.mil/usff/documents/navy_at_tipping_point.pdf)
      Is there a logical “tipping point” … are at the “tipping point.”

      Forward deployed naval power is critical to overall US capabilities—this allows us to deter and defeat any challenger and contain every impact
      ENGLAND, JONES, AND CLARK 2011 (Gordon England is a former secretary of the Navy. General James Jones is a former commandant of the Marine Corps. Admiral Vern Clark is a former chief of naval operations; “The Necessity of U.S. Naval Power,” July 11, http://gcaptain.com/necessity-u-s-naval-power?27784)
      The future security environment underscores … the challenges of the future.

      US naval power guarantees hegemony, prevents attacks on the US mainland, and deters potential rivals from even attempting to change the status quo
      FRIEDMAN 2007 (George, PhD, Chief Executive Officer and founder of STRATFOR, “The Limitations and Necessity of Naval Power,” April 10, http://www.stratfor.com/limitations_and_necessity_naval_power)
      This raises a more fundamental question: … Navy plays in U.S. national security.

      Hegemony trumps every alternative—solves nuclear great power wars
      Kagan, 07 – senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Robert, “End of Dreams, Return of History”, 7/19, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/07/end_of_dreams_return_of_histor.html) 

      This is a good thing, and … United States back in again.

      (Plan?)2ac addon

       The United States federal government should substantially expand its support for groups in Bahrain to facilitate broader distribution of access to political benefits, including the benefits of United States military presence.



09/17/11
0
  • Round Reports

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Aff: Harvard DT
      Round #  4 Tournament:
      vs: Georgetown CJ
      Judge: Jason Peterson

       

       

      Plan Text –

      Wiki

       

       

      1ac Advantages

       

      2ac Offense

       

      1ar Strategy

       

      2ar Strategy

       




11/11/11
  • 1AC Wake Rd 1

    • Tournament: Wake | Round: 1 | Opponent: | Judge:

    • The United States federal government should provide substantial advisory support for democratic constitutional reform for Bahrain.

       

       

      Advantage 1 is Stability

       

      Bahrain is a time bomb of discontent in the gulf

      Jacobs 11—June 1st, Joshua, policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, degree in International Politics at American University, concentration in US Foreign Policy and the Middle East, "Blunder in Bahrain", Institute for Gulf Affairs,  

      There is no country affected … threat is in fact created.

      Bahrain is on the brink – US democracy support key to stabilize

      WP 9/9--Washington Post, Bahrain needs US Attention Now", 2011,

      BAHRAIN HAS BECOME the hidden … now — before the crisis resumes.

       

      Iranian influence in Bahrain destabilizes Saudi Arabia

      Maginnis 11—Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, national security and foreign affairs analyst, "Bahrain's No Egypt", 2/21, Human Events,

      First, Iran would use a Bahrain … shipments pass. 

       

      Causes Saudi-Iran conflict that … , and the entire Middle East. 

       

      And, the propensity for Saudi … the Saudis backed Sunni militias.

       

      Advantage 2 is Basing

       

      Civil war causes the ejection of the fifth fleet

      Lippman, 9/22/11 - adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf)

      From a security perspective, it is … choice given the current turmoil.

       

      Failure to encourage dialogue will either get us kicked out or make the base unsustainable

      STIMSON CENTER 2011 (The Henry L. Stimson Center is a nonprofit, nonpartisan institution devoted to enhancing international peace and security through a unique combination of rigorous analysis and outreach, “Anchors Away: The future of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain,” July 21, http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/the-us-fifth-fleet-in-bahrain/)

      The home base of the … of these scenarios from materializing.

       

      Promoting reform is preserves the base

      COOLEY AND NEXON 2011 (Alexander, Assoc Prof Poli Sci at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies; Daniel, Assoc Prof School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#)

      It is time for U.S. officials … after it is under way.

       

      Fleet key to naval projection—deters Iranian aggression

      Goodspeed 11—award winning reporter for the National Post (Peter, "Goodspeed Anaylsis: Unrest in Bahrain could threaten key US military outposts", 2/14, National Post,

      There are concerns large-scale … world suddenly engulfs the emirate.

       

      Kickout kills our credibility and emboldens Iran

      Cohen 11 (CSIS Group Report, Craig S. Cohen, Jon B. Alterman, Ernest Z. Bower, Victor D. Cha, Heather A. Conley, Stephen J. Flanagan, Bonnie S. Glaser, Michael J. Green, Andrew C. Kuchins, Haim Malka, Teresita C. Schaffer, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of US Power,” June 2011)

      There is no region in … set of actions and statements.

       

      That goes nuclear, credible deterrence is vital

      Ben-Meir 7—Alon Ben-Meir, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, 2/6/07, Realpolitik: Ending Iran's defiance,

      Feeling emboldened and unrestrained, Tehran … , which dreads major U.S. punitive measures.

       

      Despite opposition to US power there’s no alternative—no one else can guarantee gulf security in the short-term

      FREEMAN 2011 (Chas, Ambassador Freeman is a retired U.S. Foreign Service officer and president emeritus of the Middle East Policy Council, “The Arab Reawakening: Strategic Implications,” Middle East Policy, Summer, Lexis)

      These changes are occurring as … to join others in countering it.

       

      Fifth fleet key to check energy conflicts

      Mead ‘7 (Walter, Senior Fellow @ CFR, Wall Street Journal, “Why We’re in the Gulf”, 12-27, http://docs.google.com/View?docid=ah6sxjndq9qq_387kw2kfkm9)

      For the past few … America's very highest international priorities.

                                          

      This causes world war

      Emmott, 8 - former editor of the Economist (Bill,  ‘Power rises in the east,’ The Australian, June 4, pg. l/n

       As well as knitting … -Diaoyutai islands, Taiwan and Pakistan.

       

      Kickout kills the global credibility of US heg

      Koplovsky 06 (Michael Koplovsky, current Director, Policy and Public Outreach, Bureau of Oceans, Environment and Science, U.S. Department of State; fmr. foreign service officer, US Department of State, 10-23-06, “Precipitating the Inevitable: The Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain,” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA463412&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)

      Former Joint Chiefs of Staff … and contributes to economic development.

       

      The Gulf is key heg – countries view it as a litmus test of US power

      Etzioni 11—Director of the Institute … up to its commitments overseas

       

      The perception of American bias towards Bahrain’s government feeds a global movement against US basing

      COOLEY AND NEXON 2011 (Alexander, Assoc Prof Poli Sci at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies; Daniel, Assoc Prof School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#)

      The use of force and foreign troops .. autocratic friends under the bus

       

      Forward deployed power is critical to overall US capabilities—this allows us to deter and defeat any challenger and contain every impact

      ENGLAND, JONES, AND CLARK 2011 (Gordon England is a former secretary of the Navy. General James Jones is a former commandant of the Marine Corps. Admiral Vern Clark is a former chief of naval operations; “The Necessity of U.S. Naval Power,” July 11, http://gcaptain.com/necessity-u-s-naval-power?27784)

      The future security environment underscores … the challenges of the future.

       

      Hegemony trumps every alternative—solves nuclear great power wars

      Kagan, 07 – senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Robert, “End of Dreams, Return of History”, 7/19, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/07/end_of_dreams_return_of_histor.html) 

      This is a good thing, and … United States back in again.

       

      Contention 3 is Solvency

       

      The plan solves - clear U.S. support for a genuine dialogue creates space for political reform

      Aziz and Musalem, 11 - *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf)

      Foreign Intervention by Saudi Arabia Instead of Iran

      Meanwhile, the region’s American allies … the united states’ national interest

       

      Reform is possible and necessary – suppression won’t last forever and causes revolts

      Abrams 11—Elliot, Senior fellow for … more sensible; they usually are.

       

      Unconditional US support bolsters the Crown Prince and brings the opposition to the table

      Leigh 6-8-11—Journalist at Time and Hindustan Times

      The U.S. and Bahrain: How to Talk Just Tough Enough with an Ally, Karen Leigh, Wednesday, June 08, 2011, Time

      The U.S. government's aim this week … stops raining down on Manama.

       

      -Rehabilitating the Crown Prince is critical to draw the opposition back to the table & cut a deal

      Aneja 11—Researcher for Institute for Defense Studies and West Asia Correspondent for “The Hindu”

      Atul Aneja, INDIA'S NATIONAL MAGAZINE, Frontline, vol 28, Issue 8, April 09-22, 2011, Contagion of hope

      The blazing Bahraini revolt for … Iran, cannot be ruled out.

       

       

       

       

       

       

       




11/12/11
  • Saudi Relations 2ac

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Relations low – Egypt

      Helfont and Helfont 11 (Samuel Helfont, Tally HelfontScience Direct, “Jordan: Between the Arab Spring and the Gulf Cooperation Council,” 11/1/11)

      A further threat to the … , the people forego political rights.

       

      Relations low – veto

      Al-Faisal 11 (Turki AL-Faisal, former director of Saudi Arabia’s intelligence services and a former Saudi ambassador to the United States, is chairman of the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, “Veto a State, Lose an Ally,” 9/11/11)

      The United States must support … live in peace and security.

       

      No link uniqueness on Bahrain

      Shaikh 11 (Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Institution's Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy,
       previously served as the Special Assistant for the Middle East and Asia to the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs and as an adviser to former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, ““
      The Bahrain crisis and its regional dangers,” 3/23/11)

      Bahrain represents the …t a greater regional fallout.

       

      Relations Resilient – military and energy … ties means Bahrain won’t matter

      Teitelbaum 7/17—Joshua, Senior Fellow, Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies, Tel Aviv U. Adjunct Senior Lecturer, Middle Eastern History, Bar Ilan U. PhD, Tel Aviv U, 17 July 2011, Joshua, Empty Words: Saudi Blustering and US-Saudi Realities, http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/perspectives147.html

      The Saudis are truly angry … devotion to liberal international norms?

       

      BMD checks all their impacts

      Ellison 11—Riki, chairman and founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, "Unstable Momentum in Middle East Causes More US Need for Missile Defense", Feb 22, PR Newswire,

      Today, for the first time … defense makes our world safer.

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       




11/12/11
  • Pressure CP 2AC

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    •  

      Pressure fails – it’s perceived as the beginning of a break in the US-Bahrain relationship, walking the line on diplomacy with moderate assistance is key – stronger moves break the alliance and deterrence

      Darling, 11 - an international military markets analyst with Forecast International Inc., an aerospace and defense research company. A graduate of Kansas State University with a degree in history, he specializes in the European and Middle Eastern regions at Forecast (Daniel, “Don’t Expect a Split in the U.S.-Bahrain Relationship,” 2/22, The Faster Times,

      http://www.thefastertimes.com/defensespending/2011/02/22/dont-expect-a-split-in-the-u-s-bahrain-relationship/

       

      As in the case of … is realpolitik in crude form.

      With Bahrain and the rest of the Gulf Arab sheikhdoms bent on stopping civic unrest at its inception expect realpolitik to win out in Washington.

      The reason for this is … Assistance Force (ISAF) peacekeeping mission.

      Bahraini support for U.S. regional policy has resulted in its designation by Washington as a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) as well as a supportive U.S. hand in military assistance. Though its armed forces are small in manpower at around 10,000-strong, Bahrain’s military is well-equipped with American material ranging from F-16 jet fighters to UH-60M Black Hawk helicopters to M60A3 tanks, M113A2 armored vehicles, an ex-U.S. Navy Perry-class frigate, Javelin anti-tank missiles, self-propelled howitzers, multiple launch rocket systems and a ballistic missile defense radar system. Since 2000 the U.S. has sold Bahrain some $1.4 billion worth of military hardware.

      The upshot of this support … no guarantee of a favorable outcome.

      Ultimately the Gulf monarchies are not going to easily let go of control over their kingdoms – and the U.S. is not going to alienate itself from those nations allied to its interests.

       

      The counterplan rocks the boat too hard – risks escalation of the conflict

      McManus, 11 – Washington Columnist for the LA Times (Doyle, “Rattling the palace windows in the Persian Gulf,” LA Times, 2/20,

       

      So the aim of U.S. policy … democracy and the real thing.

      In Bahrain and elsewhere, history is calling our bluff.

       

      Turn: Iran will use the cp to get the US kicked out

      Reva Bhalla, Director of Analysis at Stratfor , 7-19-2011, “The U.S.-Saudi Dilemma: Iran's Reshaping of Persian Gulf Politics,” Right Side News, http://www.rightsidenews.com/2011071914093/world/geopolitics/the-us-saudi-dilemma-irans-reshaping-of-persian-gulf-politics.html

      The threat of a double-cross … an Arab resistance to Iran.

      But Iran would view such a preliminary understanding as the path toward a broader accommodation, one that would bestow recognition on Iran as the pre-eminent power of the Persian Gulf. Iran can thus be expected to make a variety of demands, all revolving around the idea of Sunni recognition of an expanded Iranian sphere of influence — a very difficult idea for Saudi Arabia to swallow.

      This is where things get … the Sunni Arabs against Iran.

       

       

       

       

       

       




11/12/11
  • 1AC Wake RD 5

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • USThe United States federal government should provide substantial technical support for democratic constitutional reform for Bahrain.

       

      Advantage 1 is Stability

       

      Bahrain is a time bomb of discontent in the gulf

      Jacobs 11—June 1st, Joshua, policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, degree in International Politics at American University, concentration in US Foreign Policy and the Middle East, "Blunder in Bahrain", Institute for Gulf Affairs,  

      There is no country affected … threat is in fact created.

       

      Bahrain is on the brink – US democracy support key to stabilize

      WP 9/9--Washington Post, Bahrain needs US Attention Now", 2011,

      BAHRAIN HAS BECOME the hidden … Bahrain but the region around it.

      The latest trouble began with … … now — before the crisis resumes.

       

      Iranian influence in Bahrain destabilizes Saudi Arabia

      Maginnis 11—Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, national security and foreign affairs analyst, "Bahrain's No Egypt", 2/21, Human Events,

      First, Iran would use a Bahrain …shipments pass. 

       

      Causes Saudi-Iran conflict that … over the past two decades.

      These decades were defined … the entire Middle East. 

       

      And, the propensity for Saudi … develop one of its own.

      The Saudis currently … … the Saudis backed Sunni militias.

       

      Civil war causes the ejection of the fifth fleet

      Lippman, 9/22/11 - adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute and former Middle East bureau chief of the Washington Post (Thomas, “ The U.S. Dilemma in Bahrain,” http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/POMED-Policy-Brief_Lippman.pdf)

      From a security perspective, it is … choice given the current turmoil.

       

      Failure to encourage dialogue will either get us kicked out or make the base unsustainable

      STIMSON CENTER 2011 (The Henry L. Stimson Center is a nonprofit, nonpartisan institution devoted to enhancing international peace and security through a unique combination of rigorous analysis and outreach, “Anchors Away: The future of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain,” July 21, http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/the-us-fifth-fleet-in-bahrain/)

      The home base of the … of these scenarios from materializing.

       

      Promoting reform is preserves the base

      COOLEY AND NEXON 2011 (Alexander, Assoc Prof Poli Sci at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies; Daniel, Assoc Prof School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#)

      It is time for U.S. officials … after it is under way.

       

      Fleet key to naval projection—deters Iranian aggression

      Goodspeed 11—award winning reporter for the National Post (Peter, "Goodspeed Anaylsis: Unrest in Bahrain could threaten key US military outposts", 2/14, National Post,

      There are concerns large-scale

      world suddenly engulfs the emirate.

       

      Kickout kills our credibility and emboldens Iran

      Cohen 11 (CSIS Group Report, Craig S. Cohen, Jon B. Alterman, Ernest Z. Bower, Victor D. Cha, Heather A. Conley, Stephen J. Flanagan, Bonnie S. Glaser, Michael J. Green, Andrew C. Kuchins, Haim Malka, Teresita C. Schaffer, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of US Power,” June 2011)

      There is no region in the world

      … set of actions and statements.

       

      That goes nuclear, credible deterrence is vital

      Ben-Meir 7—Alon Ben-Meir, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, 2/6/07, Realpolitik: Ending Iran's defiance,

      Feeling emboldened and … … , which dreads major U.S. punitive measures.

       

      Despite opposition to US power there’s no alternative—no one else can guarantee gulf security in the short-term

      FREEMAN 2011 (Chas, Ambassador Freeman is a retired U.S. Foreign Service officer and president emeritus of the Middle East Policy Council, “The Arab Reawakening: Strategic Implications,” Middle East Policy, Summer, Lexis)

      These changes are occurring as … to join others in countering it.

       

      Fifth fleet key to check energy conflicts

      Mead ‘7 (Walter, Senior Fellow @ CFR, Wall Street Journal, “Why We’re in the Gulf”, 12-27, http://docs.google.com/View?docid=ah6sxjndq9qq_387kw2kfkm9)

      For the past few … and any pan-Arab state.

      When the fall of the shah of Iran turned a key regional ally into an implacable foe, the U.S. responded by tightening its relations with both Israel and Turkey -- while developing a deeper relationship with Egypt, which had given up on Nasser's goal of unifying all the Arabs under its flag.

      Today the U.S. is building a coalition … America's very highest international priorities.

       

      This causes world war

      Emmott, 8 - former editor of the Economist (Bill,  ‘Power rises in the east,’ The Australian, June 4, pg. l/n

       As well as knitting … -Diaoyutai islands, Taiwan and Pakistan.

       

      Kickout kills the global credibility of US heg

      Koplovsky 06 (Michael Koplovsky, current Director, Policy and Public Outreach, Bureau of Oceans, Environment and Science, U.S. Department of State; fmr. foreign service officer, US Department of State, 10-23-06, “Precipitating the Inevitable: The Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain,” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA463412&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)

      Former Joint Chiefs of Staff … and contributes to economic development.

       

      The Gulf is key heg – countries view it as a litmus test of US power

      Etzioni 11—Director of the Institute … in one way or another.

      Best, and least likely, is for … to its commitments overseas

       

      The perception of American bias towards Bahrain’s government feeds a global movement against US basing

      COOLEY AND NEXON 2011 (Alexander, Assoc Prof Poli Sci at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies; Daniel, Assoc Prof School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#)

      The use of force and foreign …its autocratic friends under the bus

       

      Forward deployed power is critical to overall US capabilities—this allows us to deter and defeat any challenger and contain every impact

      ENGLAND, JONES, AND CLARK 2011 (Gordon England is a former secretary of the Navy. General James Jones is a former commandant of the Marine Corps. Admiral Vern Clark is a former chief of naval operations; “The Necessity of U.S. Naval Power,” July 11, http://gcaptain.com/necessity-u-s-naval-power?27784)

      The future security environment underscores … the challenges of the future.

       

      Hegemony trumps every alternative—solves nuclear great power wars

      Kagan, 07 – senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Robert, “End of Dreams, Return of History”, 7/19, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/07/end_of_dreams_return_of_histor.html) 

      This is a good thing, and … United States back in again.

       

       

      Advantage 2 is Legitimacy

       

      Hypocrisy in Bahrain destroys US credibility throughout the middle east

      Jacobs 11—June 1st, Joshua, policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, degree in International Politics at American University, concentration in US Foreign Policy and the Middle East, "Blunder in Bahrain", Institute for Gulf Affairs,  

      Tehran also gains crucial ammunition … , and in negating Iranian propaganda.

       

      US stance on reform makes or breaks Al-Qaeda

      Zarate and Gordon summer 11

       Juan C. Zarate is a Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism (2005— 2009). He can be reached at jzarate@csis.org. David A. Gordon is the Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project. He can be reached at dgordon@csis.org. Both are working on a year-long CSIS study on the future of al-Qaeda and its associated movements 

       Copyright # 2011 Center for Strategic and International Studies

      The Washington Quarterly • 34:3 pp. 103122

      DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2011.588305

      If inadequate reform leads to … organic movements in the region.

       

      Al Qaeda has the means to go Nuclear

      Joyner ‘9 – Prof Govt @ Georgetown, Christopher, “… activities associated with such acts.

       

      Causes miscalc and nuclear war

      Ayson 10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies, Director of Strategic Studies: New Zealand, Senior Research Associate with Oxford’s Centre for International Studies. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July 2010, pages 571-593)

      Washington's early response to a terrorist … unable or unwilling to provide.

       

      The plan solves the perception of a weak Obama

      Washington Times, 11 – (Obama’s Gulf in leadership”, Washington Times, March 16, , MCL)

      Bahrain’s rulers seem to have … president who is growing weaker.

       

      How he handles the Arab spring makes or breaks Obama’s credibility

      Lina Khatib 11, Program Manager at … ears in the Arab world.

       

      That agenda solves global nuclear … , will flounder and perhaps reverse.

      Now, these gloomy forecasts are not inevitable. Worst-case scenarios are developed so that they can be prevented. And there are many good signs in the world today. The most significant rising power—China—does not seem to seek to overturn the established order (as have many newly rising powers in the past) but rather to succeed within it. Considerable cooperation takes place every day at the ground level, among a large number of countries, on issues from nuclear nonproliferation to trade policy.

      Sometimes a crisis provides an opportunity. The Washington G20 meeting, for instance, was an interesting portent of a future "post-American" world. Every previous financial crisis had been handled by the IMF, the World Bank or the G7 (or G8). This time, the emerging nations were fully represented. At the same time, the meeting was held in Washington, and George W. Bush presided. The United States retains a unique role in the emerging world order. It remains the single global power. It has enormous convening, agenda-setting and leadership powers, although they must be properly managed and shared with all the world's major players, old and new, in order to be effective.

      President-elect Obama has powers … his moment. He should seize it.

       

       

      solvency

      The plan solves - clear U.S. support for a genuine dialogue creates space for political reform

      Aziz and Musalem, 11 - *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf)

      Foreign Intervention by Saudi Arabia Instead of Iran

      Meanwhile, the region’s American allies … the united states’ national interest

       

      Reform is possible and necessary – suppression won’t last forever and causes revolts

      Abrams 11—Elliot, Senior fellow for … more sensible; they usually are.

       

      Unconditional US support bolsters the Crown Prince and brings the opposition to the table

      Leigh 6-8-11—Journalist at Time and Hindustan Times

      The U.S. and Bahrain: How to Talk Just Tough Enough with an Ally, Karen Leigh, Wednesday, June 08, 2011, Time

      The U.S. government's aim this week … oil-rich Saudi and America.

      (See how Bahrain is stuck between Saudi Arabia and Iran.)

      "The U.S. has a fundamental interest … stops raining down on Manama.

       

      -Rehabilitating the Crown Prince is critical to draw the opposition back to the table & cut a deal

      Aneja 11—Researcher for Institute for Defense Studies and West Asia Correspondent for “The Hindu”

      Atul Aneja, INDIA'S NATIONAL MAGAZINE, Frontline, vol 28, Issue 8, April 09-22, 2011, Contagion of hope

      The blazing Bahraini revolt for … it was unwilling to take.

      Fears, never fully substantiated, have also been expressed about Bahrain's potentially destabilising role, once its Shias are empowered. The Saudis have argued that Shia ascendency in Bahrain would transform the country into a client state of Iran, posing a credible threat to Saudi stability across the border.

      Key GCC countries appear to share the perception that Bahrain's democratic assertion could destabilise the region's petro-monarchies. It is therefore not surprising that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) decided to send around 500 police personnel to beef up Bahrain's security. Kuwait has also positioned warships off the Bahraini coast, which is not far away from the Iranian coastline.

      By choosing to crush the revolt, instead of negotiating for its resolution, Bahrain and its fellow-regimes, especially Saudi Arabia, have taken a big risk. With blood on its hands, the Bahraini regime, in its present form, will now find it hard to draw the core group of protesters who have been outraged by the violence into meaningful talks.

      But a reconfiguration of power equations … Iran, cannot be ruled out.

       

       

       

       

       

       

       




11/13/11
  • 1AC USC RD 2

    • Tournament: USC | Round: 2 | Opponent: UNLV | Judge:

    • 1ac stability

       

      Squo conditions in Libya mean the risk of civil war is high

      Halpern 11/4 (Micah, 2011, “Muammar Gaddafi void opens civil war threat”, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/muammar-gaddafi-void-opens-civil-war-threat/story-e6frg6ux-1226185048998)

      MUAMMAR Gaddafi is dead. The … .

      , … we must do it quickly.

       

      Global nuclear war

      Lendman 11 (Stephen, Harvard BA and Wharton MBA, 7/6, “Libya - Flashpoint For World Conflict”, )

      Scott told Progressive Radio News … than WW I seemed in early 1914.

       

      US assistance lowers the risk of internal conflict

      Cordesman 8/22  (Anthony H. Cordesman is Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at Center for Strategic and International Studies and acts as a national security analyst for ABC News “Next Steps in Libya (Egypt, Tunisia, and Other States with New Regimes)”, 2011, )

      Qaddafi’s fall is certain to …

      in US and allied blood.

       

      That aid needs to be technical assistance – not buckets of money

      NYT 10/21 (New York Times, “U.S. must have role in shaping new Libya”, 2011, http://www.statesman.com/opinion/u-s-must-have-role-in-shaping-new-1927837.html?viewAsSinglePage=true)

      Jibril has said that with Gadhafi's

      … building a stable and peaceful democracy.

       

      Spills over regionally

      Pack, 3/18/2011 (Jason – researcher of Libya at Oxford University’s St. Antony’s College, Libya is too big to fail, Foreign Policy, p. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/18/libya_is_too_big_to_fail?page=full)

      Today we face a familiar dilemma. … to be allowed to fail.

       

      African conflicts escalate to great power wars.

      Glick, 12/12/2007 (Caroline – senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy, Condi’s African holiday, p. http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/home.aspx?sid=56&categoryid=56&subcategoryid=90&newsid=11568)

      The Horn of Africa is a … all countries of the region.

       

      1ac terrorism

       

      al-Qaeda wants to attack with WMD by 2013

      Kanani 11 (Rahim, founder and editor-in-chief of World Affairs Commentary, Citing Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, former Director of the Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, U.S. Department of Energy, former Chief of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Department, Counter-terrorist Center, Central Intelligence Agency, recipient of the CIA Director’s Award, graduate of the U.S. Military Academy, June 29th, “New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent”, Forbes, http://blogs.forbes.com/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/)

      We should be especially worried … they put their minds to it.”

       

      Libyan material poses the greatest risk

      Regan 8/25 (George, Chair at Nuclear Free Local Authorities, The Guardian, 2011, Picking up the pieces in Libya, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/25/picking-up-pieces-in-libya)

      But we also hear real … set up to campaign against.

       

      Plan’s signal prevents terrorism both in Libya and globally

      Gordon and Zarate 11 – David A. Gordon, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, and Juan C. Zarate, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, Summer 2011, “The Battle for Reform with Al-Qaeda,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 3, p. 103-122

      Another immediate counterterrorism challenge posed … have yet to be radicalized.

       

      Nuclear terrorism causes miscalc and nuclear war

      Ayson 10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies, Director of Strategic Studies: New Zealand, Senior Research Associate with Oxford’s Centre for International Studies. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July 2010, pages 571-593)

      Washington's early response to a terrorist … unable or unwilling to provide.

       

      And they’ll use bioweapons

      Maginnis 9 (Robert, retired Army lieutenant colonel, and a national security and foreign affairs analyst for radio and television, “Al-Qaeda and The Plague,” )

      The report that some forty al-… eliminate threats before they mature.

       

      Extinction

      Ochs 2 (Richard, Naturalist – Grand Teton National park with Masters in Natural Resource Management – Rutgers, “Biological Weapons must be abolished immediately” 6-9, http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html)

      Of all the weapons of … ? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE

       

       

       

      1ac cred

       

      Libya is the test case … correct for past halfhearted measures

      Ghitis 8/25 (Frida, independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor, 2011, “World Citizen: Libya Emerges as Major Test of Western, U.S. Influence”, )

      The future of Libya was …

      … mention friendly to the West.

       

      Credibility is the vital internal link to overall hegemony

      Tunç 8 (Hakan Tunç, Professor of Political Science at Carleton University, Fall 2008, “Reputation and U.S. Withdrawal from Iraq,” Orbis, Vol. 52, No. 4, p. 657-669)

      Reputation can be defined as a … an outcome would vindicate U.S. sacrifices.13

       

       

      Hegemony trumps every alternative—solves nuclear great power wars

      Kagan, 07 – senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Robert, “End of Dreams, Return of History”, 7/19, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/07/end_of_dreams_return_of_histor.html) 

      This is a good thing, and … United States back in again.

       

      In particular failure to follow through in Libya devastates both overall leadership and Obama’s personal credibility

      Puccia 11 (Marco, American University’s School of International Service, where he studied economic development with a particular focus on sub-Saharan Africa. During his time at American University, he spent a semester living and working in Nairobi, Kenya where he briefly attended the United States International University (USIU). Marco graduated from American University cum laude and was awarded the Annette Langdon Award for Social Justice by the School of International Service in honor of his work advancing innovative approaches to global development. He served as the youngest intern in US Senator Richard Lugar‘s office, worked in the Department of Commerce’s Economic Development Administration, and assisted in building web-based platforms for governments to track foreign assistance at Development Gateway, March, “Global Analysis: American Leadership in Libya and Across the Middle East”, )

      As revolutionary movements steamroll across … Obama needs … for during this historical moment.

       

      Libya is Obama’s vital test

      Quinn 8/22 (Andrew, 2011, “Analysis: Libya's next phase carries risks for U.S.”, )

      Those concerns may grow if … U.S. will have to be involved."

       

      Nuclear war

      Ben Coes 9-30, a former speechwriter in the George H.W. Bush administration, managed Mitt Romney’s successful campaign for Massachusetts Governor in 2002 & author, “The disease of a weak president”, The Daily Caller, http://dailycaller.com/2011/09/30/the-disease-of-a-weak-president/

      The disease of a weak president … is simply not an option.

       

      Perceptions of Obama determine overall leadership

      Andrew J. Bacevich, 10 Professor of History … : Does Obama have sufficient backbone?

       

      Impact is the global security architecture and nuclear war

      Fareed Zakaria 8, Ph.D. in Government from … , will flounder and perhaps reverse.

      Now, these gloomy forecasts are

      … his moment. He should seize it.

       

      Perception of Obama is key – China, Russia, Indopak war

      Victor Davis Hanson 9, Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution, Stanford University, “Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Interview with the Oregon Patriots, Resistnet.com, December 7, http://www.resistnet.com/group/oregon/forum/topics/change-weakness-disaster-obama/showLastReply

      BC: Are we currently sending a … it will bite or when.

       

      Indo-Pak war causes extinction

      Greg Chaffin 11, Research Assistant at Foreign Policy in Focus, July 8, 2011, “Reorienting U.S. Security Strategy in South Asia,” online: http://www.fpif.org/articles/reorienting_us_security_strategy_in_south_asia

      The greatest threat to regional … two that could quickly escalate.

       

      Russia expansionism causes nuclear war

      Blank 9 (Dr. Stephen, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf)

      Proliferators or nuclear states like … or their own people.172

       

      China war causes extinction

      Strait Times 2K (The Straits Times (Singapore), “No one gains in war over Taiwan”, June 25, 2000, L/N)

      The doomsday scenario THE high-… puts sovereignty above everything else.

       

      Assistance restores Obama’s credibility

      May 10/21 (Donald R, BS, with High Honors and Distinction in Microbiology, in 1968 from the University of Illinois, Champaign, and his MD from the University of Illinois College of Medicine, Chicago, was an intern at the Northwestern University Memorial Hospitals in Chicago, was a Major in the United States Air Force and was on active duty at the Wilford Hall USAF Medical Center, San Antonio, received the Air Force Commendation Medal,  has been on the faculties of the University of Illinois, the University of Texas, the University of California, Tulane University, and Texas Tech  and taught MBA students, “We Need to Help Libya Now”, 2011, http://lubbockonline.com/interact/blog-post/may/2011-10-21/we-need-help-libya-now#.TqY_pLJcCnc)

      The death of Moammar Gadhafi 

      … peace in the Middle East.

      plan

      The United States federal government should substantially increase its support for transparent democratic governance for Libya.

      1ac solvency

      Plan solves conflict and leads to effective governance

      Dobbins and Wehrey 8/23 (James, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, is director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation and Frederic, senior policy analyst at RAND, 2011, “Libyan Nation-Building After Qaddafi”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68227/james-dobbins-and-frederic-wehrey/libyan-nation-building-after-qaddafi?page=show)

      With the fall of the …

      … nevertheless be long and rocky.

       

      The US needs to play leading role in Libyan assistance – unique leverage

      Solomon 8/24 (Daniel, Georgetown University African Studies Program Research Assistant and Former Intern at the US Department of State, 2011, “Pulling The Strings From Behind The Curtain”, http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1466&op=yes)

      Muammar Gaddafi’s 42-year-old regime … engagement in stabilization and reconstruction.

       

      U.S. expertise and political knowledge is critical to prevent democratic backsliding.

      Vandewalle, 4/6/2011 (Dirk – teaches in the department of government at Dartmouth, The Reconstruction of Libya – Local and International Constraints and Opportunities, Testimony before the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, p. http://foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Vandewalle%20Testimony.pdf)

      As the United States continues … foundations of a future, democratic Libya.

       

       

       

       

       

       




01/03/11
  • 1AC Pitt Rd 1 Cites

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • ***1ac cites***

      1ac stability

       

      Libya risks devolving into civil war now – lack of democratic institutions

      Mead 1/7 (Walter Russell Mead, Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations “Chaos on the Shores of Tripoli?” 1/7/12)

       

      Libya may be in a better … often low level civil war)?

       

      Spills over regionally

      Pack, 3/18/2011 (Jason – researcher of Libya at Oxford University’s St. Antony’s College, Libya is too big to fail, Foreign Policy, p. )

       

      Today we face a familiar dilemma. … to be allowed to fail.

       

      African conflicts escalate to great power wars.

      Glick, 12/12/2007 (Caroline – senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy, Condi’s African holiday, p. )

       

      The Horn of Africa is a … all countries of the region.

       

      Middle east war escalates to a nuclear exchange

      Herbert I. London 10, President Emeritus of …

       

      The gathering storm in the … . That is a truly bad sign.

       

      US assistance lowers the risk of internal conflict

      Cordesman 8/22  (Anthony H. Cordesman is Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at Center for Strategic and International Studies and acts as a national security analyst for ABC News “Next Steps in Libya (Egypt, Tunisia, and Other States with New Regimes)”, 2011, )

       

      Qaddafi’s fall is certain to … in US and allied blood.

       

      That aid needs to be technical assistance – not buckets of money

      NYT 10/21 (New York Times, “U.S. must have role in shaping new Libya”, 2011, http://www.statesman.com/opinion/u-s-must-have-role-in-shaping-new-1927837.html?viewAsSinglePage=true)

      Jibril has said that with … a national council within eight months.

       

      The process of registering candidates … building a stable and peaceful democracy.

       

       

       

       

       

       

      1ac cred

       

      Libya is the test case … correct for past halfhearted measures

      Ghitis 8/25 (Frida, independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor, 2011, “World Citizen: Libya Emerges as Major Test of Western, U.S. Influence”, )

       

      The future of Libya was … mention friendly to the West.

       

      Credibility is the vital internal link to overall hegemony

      Tunç 8 (Hakan Tunç, Professor of Political Science at Carleton University, Fall 2008, “Reputation and U.S. Withdrawal from Iraq,” Orbis, Vol. 52, No. 4, p. 657-669)

       

      Reputation can be defined as a … an outcome would vindicate U.S. sacrifices.13

       

      Heg decline results in global conflict—successors won’t fill in and multiple hotspots escalate

      Brzezinski 12—Professor of Foreign Policy @ Johns Hopkins

      Zbigniew, After America, Foreign Policy, Jan/Dec 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/03/after_america?page=0,0

       

      For if America falters, the … a dangerous slide into global turmoil.

       

      In particular failure to follow through in Libya devastates both overall leadership and Obama’s personal credibility

      Puccia 11 (Marco, American University’s School of International Service, where he studied economic development with a particular focus on sub-Saharan Africa. During his time at American University, he spent a semester living and working in Nairobi, Kenya where he briefly attended the United States International University (USIU). Marco graduated from American University cum laude and was awarded the Annette Langdon Award for Social Justice by the School of International Service in honor of his work advancing innovative approaches to global development. He served as the youngest intern in US Senator Richard Lugar‘s office, worked in the Department of Commerce’s Economic Development Administration, and assisted in building web-based platforms for governments to track foreign assistance at Development Gateway, March, “Global Analysis: American Leadership in Libya and Across the Middle East”, )

       

      As revolutionary movements steamroll across … for during this historical moment.

       

      Libya is Obama’s vital test

      Quinn 8/22 (Andrew, 2011, “Analysis: Libya's next phase carries risks for U.S.”, )

       

      Those concerns may grow if … U.S. will have to be involved."

       

      Perception of a Obama is key to stopping regional conflicts

      Victor Davis Hanson 9, Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution, Stanford University, “Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Interview with the Oregon Patriots, Resistnet.com, December 7, http://www.resistnet.com/group/oregon/forum/topics/change-weakness-disaster-obama/showLastReply

       

      BC: Are we currently sending a … it will bite or when.

       

      Nuclear war

      Ben Coes 9-30, a former speechwriter in the George H.W. Bush administration, managed Mitt Romney’s successful campaign for Massachusetts Governor in 2002 & author, “The disease of a weak president”, The Daily Caller, http://dailycaller.com/2011/09/30/the-disease-of-a-weak-president/

       

      The disease of a weak president … is simply not an option.

       

      Perceptions of Obama determine overall leadership

      Andrew J. Bacevich, 10 Professor of History and International Relations at Boston University, graduated from West Point, former Colonel in the United States Army, holds a Ph.D. in American Diplomatic History from Princeton University, 10-05-2010 (“Obama Must Defy His Generals,” The New Republic, October 5th, Available Online at http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130346439, Accessed 10-12-2010)

       

      What lends this arrangement a semblance … Does Obama have sufficient backbone?

       

      Impact is the global security architecture and nuclear war

      Fareed Zakaria 8, Ph.D. in Government from Harvard University, & editor of Foreign Affairs magazine & Newsweek Internationa & professor of IR and political philosophy at Harvard and Columbia University, “Wanted: A New Grand Strategy”, 12/8/08, 

       

      The "Global Trends" report identifies … his moment. He should seize it.

       

      1ac russia

       

      Perception of US inaction on Libya has emboldened Russia to secure Libyan gas supplies

      Kavkaz Center, 8/5

      (Chechen Internet News Agency, http://kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/2011/08/05/14899.shtml)

       

      "Well, I think this shows … in reciprocity, we got nothing."

       

      Russian control of post-war Libya ensures continued European dependence on Russian gas

      Kurtz 11

      (Columnist-The National Review, 7/21, http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/272296/obama-hands-libya-russia-stanley-kurtz)

       

      Why is Obama giving Libya … policed by a U.N. freed of U.S. domination.

       

      That destroys EU pro-democracy efforts in Eurasia

      Baran, 7

      [Zenyo, senior fellow and director of the Center for Eurasian Policy at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., “ EU Energy Security: Time to End Russian Leverage,” THE WASHINGTON QUARTERLY AUTUMN 2007, ]

      Much has been made of … tactics by the Russian government

       

      Ensures Central Asian instability

      Asmus, 8

      [Ronald,  Executive Director of the Transatlantic Center at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, in Brussels. From 1997 to 2000, he served as U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs, “ Europe's Eastern Promise; Rethinking NATO and EU Enlargement,”  Foreign Affairs. New York: Jan/Feb 2008. Vol. 87, Iss. 1; pg. 95]

      In light of these new … Russia is on the rise.

       

      Extinction

      Blank 2k [Stephen J. - Expert on … capable of settling the situation.(77)

       

      Central asia escalates – It’s a geopolitical hub

      Arun Sahgal &, former Army officer …

       

      The geo-strategic salience of … interfere in their internal affairs.

       

      Libya key to European diversification—only US support can reduce Russian leverage

      McNamara 9

      (Senior Policy Analyst in European Affairs in the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom, “Europe Should Reduce Dependence on Russian Energy,”  http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2009/01/europe-should-reduce-dependence-on-russian-energy-and-develop-competitive-energy-markets)

      Energy expert Dieter Helm could … left out in the cold.

       

       

       

      plan

       

      The United States federal government should substantially increase its democratic advisory support for Libya.

       

      1ac solvency

       

      Plan solves conflict and leads to effective governance

      Dobbins and Wehrey 8/23 (James, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, is director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation and Frederic, senior policy analyst at RAND, 2011, “Libyan Nation-Building After Qaddafi”, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68227/james-dobbins-and-frederic-wehrey/libyan-nation-building-after-qaddafi?page=show)

      With the fall of the … nevertheless be long and rocky.

       

      The US needs to play leading role in Libyan assistance – unique leverage

      Solomon 8/24 (Daniel, Georgetown University African Studies Program Research Assistant and Former Intern at the US Department of State, 2011, “Pulling The Strings From Behind The Curtain”, http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1466&op=yes)

       

      Muammar Gaddafi’s 42-year-old regime … engagement in stabilization and reconstruction.

       

      U.S. expertise and political knowledge is critical to prevent democratic backsliding.

      Vandewalle, 4/6/2011 (Dirk – teaches in the department of government at Dartmouth, The Reconstruction of Libya – Local and International Constraints and Opportunities, Testimony before the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, p. http://foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Vandewalle%20Testimony.pdf)

       

      As the United States continues … foundations of a future, democratic Libya.

       

      Plan’s governance assistance is key to NTC credibility

      al-Ameri 8/23 (Alaa, British-Libyan economist and writer, 2011, “As Gaddafi's reign ends, the work of creating democracy in Libya begins”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/aug/23/gaddafi-democracy-libya)

       

      The long battle to remove … of homegrown democratic social institutions.




01/03/12
  • 2AC sites Rd 1 Pitt vs Cal GW

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • ***2AC CITES***

      case

       

      Rapid development of centralized governance in Libya is the only way to stave off waves of instability and civil war

      ICG 12-14, international crisis group – independent non-profit NGO, “holding libya together: security challenges after qadhafi”,

      As the recent upsurge of violence … obligation not to become overly complacent about its promising but still fragile future.

       

      Transition is slow and increasingly violent

      BBC 1/3 (“Deadly clash of militias in Libyan capital Tripoli”, )

       

      Four people have been killed and at … dealing with the militia problem is one of the key challenges ahead, our correspondent adds.

       

      asked for aff

      Libya asked for the aff

      Allen 11 (Michael, Runs Democracy Digest, Special Assistant for Government Relations and Public Affairs at the National Endowment for Democracy, 9/13, “Libya’s factions maneuver ahead of ‘complex’

      “Transition is complex, open-ended and always subject to reverses,” he notes, but insists that Libya “will be ready to meet the travails of democratic consolidation once constitution-framing is completed.”

      Libya’s democratic transition … and very quickly.”

       

       

      eu – russia

      Russian leverage destroys EU foreign policy

      Cohen, 7

      (Ph.D., Heritage Foreign Policy studies Russian and Eurasian Senior Research Fellow, 11/5, "Europe's Strategic Dependence on Russian Energy," http://www.heritage.org/Research/Europe/bg2083.cfm)

      From the American perspective,  on some key issues.

       

      Extinction

      Bruton, 1

      (Former Irish, PM-October, “joint committee on European affairs, parliament of Ireland,” http://www.irlgov.ie/committees-02/c-european affairs/future/page1.htm)

       

      2.5 As the Laeken Declaration put it, … forces that will otherwise overwhelm us.

       

      nk

      Cred solves North Korea war

      Etzioni 11 (Amitai, professor of international relations at George Washington University and author of Security First: For a Muscular, Moral Foreign Policy, “The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility”, )

      The Next Test

      As I will show shortly, in recent years a large and  where U.S. credibility is most being tested and will continue to be in the near future.

       

      Korean war goes nuclear

      STRATFOR 10 5/26/10, “North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,”

      So the real issue is the potential for escalation — … escalates much further.

       

      medical

      1) perm

       

      2) not solve = case proves demo institutions key to stability, not beuild

       

      Dobbins = have to take responsibility for whole, 1ac cordesman doing medical now

       

      IF CP not link plan not – not provision of aid

      Wolfowitz 11/3 (Paul, a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, has served as deputy U.S. secretary of defense and U.S. ambassador to Indonesia, 2011, “America's Opportunity in Libya”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204394804577011721031265512.html)

      Those who opposed NATO action to liberate Libya … leadership the U.S. can afford. In the end, we will pay a higher price if we do nothing.

       

       

       

      More evidence – squo proves can’t solve stability

      ICG 12-14, international crisis group – independent … bureaucratic habits – are being vetted.

       

       

      Privatized aid fails and undermines US credibility

      Dobransky, 11

      (Adjunct Professor-Poli Sci-Cleveland State University, http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2011/0104/comm/dobransky_coming.html)

      The argument against privatized foreign … with the contractor Blackwater (now, Xe).

       

      Econ downturn means no one donates

      Frazier 11 and Lopez-Rivera, 7/24 (Eric and Marisa, Corporate giving slow to recover as economy remains shaky, The Chronicle of Philanthropy, p. , 7/24)

      The Chronicle’s findings reflect how … as cash has become tighter.

       

      Free-riding means the CP can’t generate enough aid – also doesn’t solve cred

      Markovic, 5

      Law—Georgetown, http://milanpundit.blogspot.com/2005/01/private-v-public-charity.html

       

      Moreover, Bush's proposal to have … an inexcusable abdication of responsibility.

       

      CP Links to politics—viewed as outsourcing

      Mankiw, 7

      http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2007/10/alternative-to-foreign-aid.html

      SATURDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2007

      An Alternative to Foreign Aid

      Justin Muzinich and Eric Werker (… third-world sweatshops tax credit."

       

      Fails – local governments can’t keep track

      Garrett 9 (Laurie, Senior Fellow for Global Health, CFR, January, “The Future of Foreign Assistance Amid Global Economic and Financial Crisis”, www.cfr.org/global-governance/future-foreign-assistance-amid-global-economic-financial-crisis/p18167)

      Beyond the question of what … versus on-the-ground salary support.

       

      None of the reasons free markets are good apply to aid

      Prokopijevic 5 (Miroslav, Professor of public choice in Belgrade and Podgorica and Principal fellow of the IES, Belgrade and ICER, “WHY FOREIGN AID FAILS”, )

      Although this is the case, … from the usual commercial activity.

       

      Obama needs to directly act – …  of this argument:

      A lot of what our job is about is understanding the point of view of others, even when we disagree with them. A lot of our job is explaining to students a wide variety of viewpoints, and allowing them to choose from among them.

      I don’t think FDR worried … he "gloried in his enemies."

      FDR also largely got what he wanted.

      So, when pundits debate where … . He would say that too.

      But Nate Silver’s critique in his  is more on the mark.

      If liberals are convinced that the President is too conservative and conservatives are convinced that he’s too liberal then either the President must be doing everything right or everything wrong. Lately, granted, it has seemed more like the latter…

      What I think people were hoping for is that Obama would, somehow or another, be able to overcome the institutional barriers to change, probably through a hands-on approach involving a lot of public persuasion.

      Put bluntly, Obama needs to … compromise and a time to fight.

      For which specific issues is Obama really willing to fight and lose? He is not saying, “” Americans still have no clue what his core beliefs are. And, they are losing respect. That gives demagogues an opening and is the main reason Obama’s grass roots support has evaporated when he needs it most.

      Look, if the economy regains … a true liability for the President.

       

       

       

       

       

       

      pakistan

      More aid now ---

      Morocco

      PR Newswire 12-23, “Congress, President Approve Extending U.S. Aid for Morocco Reforms to Western Sahara, Advance U.S. Policy Backing Moroccan Autonomy Solution,” http://www.marketwatch.com/story/congress-president-approve-extending-us-aid-for-morocco-reforms-to-western-sahara-advance-us-policy-backing-moroccan-autonomy-solution-2011-12-23

      For the first time, U.S. program … and security across the region."

       

      Palestine

      JTA 12-30, “U.S. releases $40 million to PA”, http://www.jta.org/news/article/2011/12/30/3090961/us-releases-40-million-to-pa

      The United States transferred $40 million … actions at the United Nations. 

       

       

      No link – doesn’t spend money – send over expert

       

      Plan comes from the regional response fund

      McInerney, 11 - is Executive Director of the Project on Middle East Democracy (Stephen, "The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012 DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST”, July, )

      The administration has wisely budgeted … Syria, Libya, Yemen, or elsewhere.

       

      No ev that Pakistan is … , we wouldn’t cut their aid

       

      Pakistan and democracy budgets are distinct WITHIN the ESF budget – no tradeoff

      USAID 07 (“Economic Support Fund,” USAID overview of ESF budget, http://www.usaid.gov/policy/budget/cbj2007/an/esf.html)

      For South Asia we are … the victims of trafficking ($8.5 million).

       

       

       

       

      – nothing can solve that anyway – Pakistan strategic calculus

      Cohen 1/14 (Michael Cohen, Senior Fellow at the American Security Project, serves on the board of the National Security Network and has taught at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, served in the U.S. Department of State, former Senior Vice President at the strategic communications firm of Robinson, Lerer and Montgomery, bachelor’s degree in international relations from American University and a master’s degree from Columbia University, “U.S. Must Accommodate Pakistan's Interests in Afghanistan,” 1/14/11)

      At the heart of the U.S. … -- supportive of the Afghan insurgents. 

       

      Pakistan instability and non-cooperation are inevitable – economy, floods and elections

      Ullman 12/22 (Harlan Ullman, Advisor at …

      To many observers, Pakistan has long been at the brink of an existential crisis, much of it due to a growing insurgency exacerbated by the war in Afghanistan.

      But now the economy is … needed revenues for the government.

      Last week's loss of a small partner -- Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam -- in the coalition for almost comedic reasons underscored the seriousness of these crises.

      More shocks and warnings will follow especially after the release of the White House Afghan review last week. Eliminating so-called Taliban sanctuaries in western Pakistan was a central conclusion of that review. Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen reiterated that point in his latest visit to Pakistan. The White House will increase pressure on the Pakistani government to act.

      Pakistan has a fundamentally different assessment and one that could put both countries on a collision course.

      The game clock is ticking … be sustained by a different government.

      By late summer or early fall, Washington will become obsessed with the 2012 elections. At that stage, and with economic conditions in Pakistan deteriorating, the PPP could lose a no confidence vote or the Pakistani Muslim League-N headed by twice Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif could call for a mid-year election.

      An election may produce a hung … of many billions of dollars.

       

      Indopak war won't escalate or cause extinction.

      Dyer 2002 (5/24, Gwinette, Hamilton Spectator, "Nuclear war a possibility over Kashmir", Lexis, WEA)

       

      For those who do not … be drawn into the fighting.

      The detonation of a hundred or so relatively small nuclear weapons over India and Pakistan would not cause grave harm to the wider world from fallout.

      People over 40 have already lived through a period when the great powers conducted hundreds of nuclear tests in the atmosphere, and they are mostly still here.

       

       

      2ac – politics – payroll

       

      Boehner can’t whip up the necessary GOP votes and the Dems will push for a millionaires tax-dooming any extension

      Donna Smith, Reuters, 1/19 (Democrats to press advantage in payroll tax cut fight, )

      It is unclear whether House … over the struggling middle-class.

       

      That tax kills any chances

      Huff Post 1/18 (Payroll tax cut extension: Congress revisiting bruising fight, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/18/payroll-tax-cut-extension_n_1212631.html)

      Q: How long can Democrats … accused of blatantly playing politics.

       

      Won’t pass-Riders, partisan fighting

      Business Week 1/19 (U.S. Payroll tax cut conferees standing firm on differences, )

      Congressional negotiators are refusing to … pay in his fiscal 2013 budget. 

       

      Keystone thumps the DA

      Jennifer Rubin, WPost Politics Correspondent, 1/18 (Keystone XL decision hands the GOP a gift)

      A number of House and … will have at their fingertips.\

       

      Fights over Bush tax cuts thump the DA-even if there is no vote until later, Obama will be forced to take a stance and push now

      The Hill 1/18 (Obama's tax dilemma, )

      President Obama faces a difficult choice … will be up for grabs.

       

      Libya aid empirically popular – NED proves

      McInerney 11 (Stephen, Director of Advocacy … in other Arab countries soon).

       

      Graham loves the plan

      Millard 8/22 (Hal, 2011, “As Gaddafi Falls, Graham Hails Opportunity to Spread Democracy”, )

      With Muammar Gaddafi's 42-year dictatorship … States' best interest, he said.

       

      He’s key to the agenda

      NPR 10 (“Sen. Lindsay Graham: Spotlight on a Dealmaker,” 3/24 http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=125063664&ft=3&f=1014,1017,1128)

      In the past year, political … . 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, in civilian court.

       

      GOP loves aid to libya

      FoxNews 10-21, “Republicans Push for U.S. Role … of help in that direction.”

       

      No spending links – plan isn’t the provision of aid and it would be already funded anyway

      POMED, ‘11—Project on Middle East Democracy; nonpartisan, nonprofit organization dedicated to examining how genuine democracies can develop in the Middle East and how the U.S. can best support that process. (New FY2011 Budget Bill Released, 12 April 2011, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/04/new-fy2011-budget-bill-released.html/)

      Under the bill, the funding … Middle East and North Africa.

       

      Vote neg links to politics – plan put before congress and voted down

       

      Winner’s Win-

      Marshall and Prins 11 (BRYAN W, Miami University and BRANDON C, University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”, Sept, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3)

      Presidents rely heavily on Congress … political capital at home (Fordham 2002).

       

      Issues are compartmentalized – political capital has no effect on legislation

      Dickinson, 09 – professor of political science at Middlebury College and taught previously at Harvard University where he worked under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt (5/26/09, Matthew, Presidential Power: A NonPartisan Analysis of Presidential Politics, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,” http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/, JMP)

       

      As for Sotomayor, from here the path toward almost certain confirmation goes as follows: the Senate Judiciary Committee is slated to hold hearings sometime this summer (this involves both written depositions and of course open hearings), which should lead to formal Senate approval before Congress adjourns for its summer recess in early August.  So Sotomayor will likely take her seat in time for the start of the new Court session on October 5.  (I talk briefly about the likely politics of the nomination process below).

      What is of more interest … present Sotomayor as his nominee.

      If we want to measure Obama’s “power”, then, we need to know what his real preference was and why he chose Sotomayor.  My guess – and it is only a guess – is that after conferring with leading Democrats and Republicans, he recognized the overriding practical political advantages accruing from choosing an Hispanic woman, with left-leaning credentials.  We cannot know if this would have been his ideal choice based on judicial philosophy alone, but presidents are never free to act on their ideal preferences.  Politics is the art of the possible. Whether Sotomayer is his first choice or not, however, her nomination is a reminder that the power of the presidency often resides in the president’s ability to dictate the alternatives from which Congress (or in this case the Senate) must choose.  Although Republicans will undoubtedly attack Sotomayor for her judicial “activism” (citing in particular her decisions regarding promotion and affirmative action), her comments regarding the importance of gender and ethnicity in influencing her decisions, and her views regarding whether appellate courts “make” policy, they run the risk of alienating Hispanic voters – an increasingly influential voting bloc (to the extent that one can view Hispanics as a voting bloc!)  I find it very hard to believe she will not be easily confirmed. In structuring the alternative before the Senate in this manner, then, Obama reveals an important aspect of presidential power that cannot be measured through legislative boxscores.

       

      PC doesn’t solve --- GOP won’t … on spending issues  pre-election

      Reuters 9-15, “Analysis: Happy talk doesn't mean compromise in Congress”, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/15/us-usa-congress-compromise-idUSTRE78E0SO20110915

      Republicans in Congress may have dialed back their rhetoric, but that does not mean they are any more likely to yield to an unpopular Democratic president.

      Coming off a bruising debt-ceiling debate that spooked investors, unnerved Americans and took the country to the edge of default, Republican leaders have promised to lower the temperature on Capitol Hill and try to work with President Barack Obama wherever possible.

      But Republicans have little incentive … and political guns," Siegal said.

       

      at: econ

       

      Won’t have an economic stimulus effect-five reasons

      Bruce Bartlett held senior policy roles in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations, 11 (The Case Against a Payroll Tax Cut, economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/the-case-against-a-payroll-tax-cut/)

      In theory, the payroll tax … included in the tax wedge.

       

      CBO agrees

      Bruce Bartlett held senior policy roles in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations and served on the staffs of Representatives Jack Kemp and Ron Paul, 12/27 (How Politics came to dominate payroll tax debate, )

      In August, The Wall Street … tax cut extension played out.

       

      No effect – Keynesianism wrong

      Louis Woodhill 12-21, columnist for Forbes, “… for the Republicans to start.

       

       

      Alt cause china

      New York Times 12-26

      (“Dealing With China’s Troubles”, )

      China’s economy seems to be … China’s currency has slowed markedly.

       

      Heg solves inevitable economic decline

      Mandelbaum 2005 – Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005

      [Michael, The Case for Goliath: How America Acts As the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 192-195]

      Although the spread of nuclear … a fleet of cars without gasoline.

       

      Fed will step in

      Jon Hilsenrath, WSJ, 9/8 (Fed Prepares to Act, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904103404576556943051259236.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)

      Federal Reserve officials are consideringexpressing support for additional action.

       

      No impact—last recession proves … doesn’t determine conflict or instability

      Barnett 2009 – senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC and a contributing editor/online columnist for Esquire magazine, columnist for World Politics Review (8/25, Thomas P.M. “The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis,” World Politics Review, , WEA)

      When the global financial crisis … advising and training local forces.

      So, to sum up:

      No significant uptick in mass … like Greece, Moldova and Latvia?);

      The usual frequency maintained in civil conflicts (in all the usual places);

      Not a single state-on-state war … powers (despite all that diplomacy);

      A modest scaling back of international policing efforts by the system's acknowledged Leviathan power (inevitable given the strain); and

      No serious efforts by any rising great power to challenge that Leviathan or supplant its role. (The worst things we can cite are Moscow's occasional deployments of strategic assets to the Western hemisphere and its weak efforts to outbid the United States on basing rights in Kyrgyzstan; but the best include China and India stepping up their aid and investments in Afghanistan and Iraq.)

      Sure, we've finally seen global defense spending surpass the previous world record set in the late 1980s, but even that's likely to wane given the stress on public budgets created by all this unprecedented "stimulus" spending. If anything, the friendly cooperation on such stimulus packaging was the most notable great-power dynamic caused by the crisis.

      Can we say that the … connecting evangelicalism as disconnecting fundamentalism.

      At the end of the day, the economic crisis did not prove to be sufficiently frightening to provoke major economies into establishing global regulatory schemes, even as it has sparked a spirited -- and much needed, as I argued last week -- discussion of the continuing viability of the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency. Naturally, plenty of experts and pundits have attached great significance to this debate, seeing in it the beginning of "economic warfare" and the like between "fading" America and "rising" China. And yet, in a world of globally integrated production chains and interconnected financial markets, such "diverging interests" hardly constitute signposts for wars up ahead. Frankly, I don't welcome a world in which America's fiscal profligacy goes undisciplined, so bring it on -- please!

      Add it all up and it's fair to say that this global financial crisis has proven the great resilience of America's post-World War II international liberal trade order.

      Do I expect to read any analyses along those lines in the blogosphere any time soon?

      Absolutely not. I expect the fantastic … what the Internet is for.

       

      Libya key to SAM plolif

      DOYLE 2011 (John, Washington area defense and homeland security writer, “COUNTER TERRORISM: Potential MANPADS Boom on Black Markets (Update)” March 4, http://4gwar.wordpress.com/2011/03/04/counter-terrorism-potential-manpads-boom-on-black-markets/)

      Forget rising oil prices, defense … $2.1 billion a year in operating costs.

       

      That kills the Economy

      EHRENFELD 12-9-11 (Rachel Ehrenfeld, director of New York-based American Center for Democracy and its Economic Warfare Institute, “Libya's missing missiles: a threat to US airline passengers,” Christian Science Monitor, http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/new-economy/2011/1209/Libya-s-missing-missiles-a-threat-to-US-airline-passengers)

      If terrorists get hold of … the dangers to commercial carriers.

       

      U.S. isn’t key to the global economy --- its decoupled

      Caryl 10 (Christian, Contributing Editor – Foreign Policy and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Studies – Massachusetts Institute of Technology, “Crisis? What Crisis?”, Foreign Policy Magazine, 4-5, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/04/05/crisis_what_crisis?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full)

       

      So what's different this time … directly in the economy itself."

       

      Heg will survive econ decline – also overall resilience

      Ferguson 2009 – Laurence A. Tisch Professor at Harvard University and a member of the AI editorial board (Niall, The American Interest, Jan-Feb 09, “What “Chimerica” Hath Wrought”, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=533, WEA)

      Yet commentators should hesitate before … politically disruptive to America’s rivals.

       

      Overwhelming resilience takes out their impact—3 distinct warrants

      Zakaria 2009 – PhD in political science from Harvard, editor of Newsweek International, former managing editor of Foreign Affairs (12/12, Fareed, Newsweek, “The Secrets of Stability”, http://www.newsweek.com/id/226425/page/2, WEA)

      One year ago, the world … not seen since the 1930s.

      Pundits whose bearishness had been vindicated predicted we were doomed to a long, painful bust, with cascading failures in sector after sector, country after country. In a widely cited essay that appeared in The Atlantic this May, Simon Johnson, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, wrote: "The conventional wisdom among the elite is still that the current slump 'cannot be as bad as the Great Depression.' This view is wrong. What we face now could, in fact, be worse than the Great Depression."

      Others predicted that these economic shocks would lead to political instability and violence in the worst-hit countries. At his confirmation hearing in February, the new U.S. director of national intelligence, Adm. Dennis Blair, cautioned the Senate that "the financial crisis and global recession are likely to produce a wave of economic crises in emerging-market nations over the next year." Hillary Clinton endorsed this grim view. And she was hardly alone. Foreign Policy ran a cover story predicting serious unrest in several emerging markets.

      Of one thing everyone was sure: nothing would ever be the same again. Not the financial industry, not capitalism, not globalization.

      One year later, how much … have not materialized at all.

      A key measure of fear and fragility is the ability of poor and unstable countries to borrow money on the debt markets. So consider this: the sovereign bonds of tottering Pakistan have returned 168 percent so far this year. All this doesn't add up to a recovery yet, but it does reflect a return to some level of normalcy. And that rebound has been so rapid that even the shrewdest observers remain puzzled. "The question I have at the back of my head is 'Is that it?' " says Charles Kaye, the co-head of Warburg Pincus. "We had this huge crisis, and now we're back to business as usual?"

      This revival did not happen because markets managed to stabilize themselves on their own. Rather, governments, having learned the lessons of the Great Depression, were determined not to repeat the same mistakes once this crisis hit. By massively expanding state support for the through central banks and national treasuries—they buffered the worst of the damage. (Whether they made new mistakes in the process remains to be seen.) The extensive social safety nets that have been established across the industrialized world also cushioned the pain felt by many. Times are still tough, but things are nowhere near as bad as in the 1930s, when governments played a tiny role in national economies.

      It's true that the massive state interventions of the past year may be fueling some new bubbles: the cheap cash and government guarantees provided to banks, companies, and consumers have fueled some irrational exuberance in stock and bond markets. Yet these rallies also demonstrate the return of confidence, and confidence is a very powerful economic force. When John Maynard Keynes described his own prescriptions for economic growth, he believed government action could provide only a temporary fix until the real motor of the economy started cranking again—the animal spirits of investors, consumers, and companies seeking risk and profit.

      Beyond all this, though, I believe … more deeply connected global system.

      Managers in Arkansas can work with suppliers in Beijing on a real-time basis. The production of almost every complex manufactured product now involves input from a dozen countries in a tight global supply chain. And the consequences of connectivity go well beyond economics. Women in rural India have learned through satellite television about the independence of women in more modern countries. Citizens in Iran have used cell phones and the Internet to connect to their well-wishers beyond their borders. Globalization today is fundamentally about knowledge being dispersed across our world.

      This diffusion of knowledge may … . And they know the price.

       

      No double dip-best economic forecasting proves

      Brian O'Connell 12/8 (No Double-Dip Recession in 2012: Study, )

      Analysts at UCLA say the U.S. … to generate faster growth in 2013."

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

       

      ***1AR cites***

       

       

      stabiilty

       

      Libya unstable now – militia fights

      Karon 1/4 (Tony Karon, journalist, senior editor for Time.com, “In Post-Gaddafi Libya, Freedom is Messy—and Getting Messier,” 1/4/12)

      “I fear this looks like a civil war”, one Libyan … that the NTC granted them 40% of its seats.

       

      turns

      aid isn’t governance aid

      Peter Burnell 2k is Professor of Politics in the Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Warwick, UK. He is the author or editor of thirteen books, and has authored over 35 articles and many book chapters on democratisation, the political economy of foreign aid, and politics in Zambia. He is founding editor of the journal Democratization., Democracy Assistance: International Co-operation for Democratization 17-8

      In principle democracy assistance can * in the Development Assistance Committee's terms.

       

       

      Burnell 11 Peter Burnell, Topic Guru and Professor @ University of Warwick "Lessons of Experience inInternational Democracy Support" Working Paper No. 2011/84 www.wider.unu.edu/publications/working-papers/2011/en_GB/wp2011-084/_files/86687158764241318/default/wp2011-084.pdf

      Contemporary discourse is … compared to international development assistance and debt relief.

       

       

      Assistance key to check foreign interference

      Grygiel 11 (Jakub, Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and the George H.W. Bush Associate Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins-SAIS, October 3 , “Great Powers and Democracy Promotion”, http://www.cepa.org/ced/view.aspx?record_id=319)

      Alas, reality is different. geopolitical consequences of their actions.

       

       

       

      pakistan

       

       

      New Foreign Ops bill passed

      USGLC, 12/21/’11

      ()

      On December 17, Congress  expected to sign the package into law today or tomorrow.

                                           

      That’s the cash for the plan

      USGLC, 12/21/’11

      ()

       

      Overseas Contingency … thereby freeing up additional funding under the base budget.

       

      And the megabus funded several democracy assistance programs including flexible accounts that fund the plan---right before the payroll tax cut passed

      USGLC 12-21 – U.S. Global Leadership Coalition, December 21, 2011, “International Affairs Budget Update,” online: http://www.usglc.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/USGLC-IAB-Budge-Update-12-21-11-FINAL.pdf

      Months after the White House had …owed to the United States.

       

       




01/03/12
  • 1AC Pitt Rd 5 vs. Wake

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • 1AC TERRORISM

      al-Qaeda wants to attack with WMD by 2013

      Kanani 11 (Rahim, founder and editor

      AND 

      )

      We should be especially worried about the threat 

      AND 

      accomplishing when they put their minds to it.”

      Libyan material poses the greatest risk

      Regan 8/25 (George, Chair 

      AND 

      -up-pieces-in-libya)

      But we also hear real worries from former 

      AND 

      for Peace were set up to campaign against.

      Plan’s signal prevents terrorism both in Libya and globally

      Gordon and Zarate 11 – David A. 

      AND 

      No. 3, p. 103-122

      Another immediate counterterrorism challenge posed by the Arab 

      AND 

      to those who have yet to be radicalized.

      Nuclear terrorism causes miscalc and nuclear war

      Ayson 10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic 

      AND 

      , July 2010, pages 571-593)

      Washington's early response to a terrorist nuclear attack 

      AND 

      latter found itself unable or unwilling to provide.

      And they’ll use bioweapons

      Maginnis 9 (Robert, retired Army lieutenant 

      AND 

      )

      The report that some forty al-Qaeda 

      AND 

      friendly governments must eliminate threats before they mature. 

      Extinction

      Ochs 2 (Richard, Naturalist – Grand 

      AND 

      /other_articles/abolish.html)

      Of all the weapons of mass destruction, 

      AND 

      such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE.  

      1AC CRED

      Libya is the test case for American leadership – we must correct for past halfhearted measures

      Ghitis 8/25 (Frida, independent 

      AND 

      )

      The future of Libya was never terribly important 

      AND 

      , not to mention friendly to the West.

      Credibility is the vital internal link to overall hegemony

      Tunç 8 (Hakan Tunç, Professor of 

      AND 

      . 4, p. 657-669)

      Reputation can be defined as a judgment about 

      AND 

      would vindicate U.S. sacrifices.13

      Heg decline results in global conflict—successors won’t fill in and multiple hotspots escalate

      Brzezinski 12—Professor of Foreign Policy @ Johns Hopkins

      Zbigniew, After America, Foreign Policy, 

      AND 

      after_america?page=0,0

      For if America falters, the world is 

      AND 

      itself for a dangerous slide into global turmoil.

      In particular failure to follow through in Libya devastates both overall leadership and Obama’s personal credibility 

      Puccia 11 (Marco, American University’s School 

      AND 

      )

      As revolutionary movements steamroll across the Middle East 

      AND 

      will be remembered for during this historical moment.

      Libya is Obama’s vital test

      Quinn 8/22 (Andrew, 2011

      AND 

      )

      Those concerns may grow if Libya spirals into 

      AND 

      next phase as a test of Obama's leadership.

      "Ultimately, our intervention in Libya will 

      AND 

      McCain and Lindsey Graham said in a statement.

      Daniel Serwer, a post-conflict development 

      AND 

      and more specific gameplan for Libya's democratic future.

      "It is one thing to write a 

      AND 

      .S. will have to be involved."

      Perception of Obama is key to stopping regional conflicts

      Victor Davis Hanson 9, Senior Fellow in 

      AND 

      change-weakness-disaster-obama/showLastReply

      BC: Are we currently sending a message 

      AND 

      quite knows whom it will bite or when.

      Nuclear war

      Ben Coes 9-30, a former 

      AND 

      -of-a-weak-president/

      The disease of a weak president usually begins 

      AND 

      The status quo is simply not an option.

      Perceptions of Obama determine overall leadership

      Andrew J. Bacevich, 10 Professor of 

      AND 

      130346439, Accessed 10-12-2010)

      What lends this arrangement a semblance of legitimacy 

      AND 

      is this: Does Obama have sufficient backbone?

      Impact is the global security architecture and nuclear war

      Fareed Zakaria 8, Ph.D. 

      AND 

      The "Global Trends" report identifies several 

      AND 

      is his moment. He should seize it.

      1AC STABILITY

      Libya risks devolving into civil war now – lack of democratic institutions

      Mead 1/7 (Walter Russell Mead

      AND 

      Libya may be in a better place without 

      AND 

      in open though often low level civil war)?

      Spills over regionally

      Pack, 3/18/2011 (

      AND 

      )

      Today we face a familiar dilemma. Libya 

      AND 

      simply too big to be allowed to fail.

      African conflicts escalate to great power wars.

      Glick, 12/12/2007 (

      AND 

      )

      The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and 

      AND 

      which flows through all countries of the region.

      Middle East war escalates to a nuclear exchange

      Herbert I. London 10, President Emeritus 

      AND 

      The gathering storm in the Middle East is 

      AND 

      veracity. That is a truly bad sign.

      Spills over to Western Sahara

      PR Newswire 11/10/11

      AND 

       Moroccans go to the polls Nov. 

      AND 

      there is reluctance for engagement in the US." 

      That jacks the global phosphate supply

      Pearce 6/7/11

      http://e360.yale.edu/

      AND 

      _now_running_out/2423/

       Fred Pearce is a freelance author and 

      AND 

      how agribusiness threatens a critical African wildlife migration. 

       If you wanted to really mess with 

      AND 

      to mine the rock — or we starve. 

      Extinction

      Klare 6

      (Peace and World Security Studies-Hampshire 

      AND 

      )

      "As famine, disease, and weather

      AND 

      will escape involvement in these forms of conflict.

      PLAN

      The United States federal government should substantially increase its democratic advisory support for Libya. 

      1AC SOLVENCY

      Plan solves conflict and leads to effective governance

      Dobbins and Wehrey 8/23 (James

      AND 

      -after-qaddafi?page=show)

      With the fall of the Libyan leader Muammar 

      AND 

      the road may nevertheless be long and rocky.

      The US needs to play leading role in Libyan assistance – unique leverage

      Solomon 8/24 (Daniel, Georgetown 

      AND 

      ?id=1466&op=yes) 

      Muammar Gaddafi’s 42-year-old regime 

      AND 

      in facilitating multilateral engagement in stabilization and reconstruction.

      Aid needs to be technical assistance – not buckets of money

      NYT 10/21 (New York Times

      AND 

      -1927837.html?viewAsSinglePage=true)

      Jibril has said that with Gadhafi's death the 

      AND 

      , for a national council within eight months. 

      The process of registering candidates and voters must 

      AND 

      all Libyans will be part of this undertaking.

      Earlier this week, on a visit to 

      AND 

      sustained technical advice and full-time engagement.

      This was always the Libyan people's fight. 

      AND 

      Libyans into building a stable and peaceful democracy.

      U.S. expertise and political knowledge is critical to prevent democratic backsliding.

      Vandewalle, 4/6/2011 (

      AND 

      /doc/Vandewalle%20Testimony.pdf)

      As the United States continues to find its 

      AND 

      the foundations of a future, democratic Libya.

      Plan’s governance assistance is key to NTC leadership

      al-Ameri 8/23 (Alaa

      AND 

      )

      The long battle to remove the Gaddafi family 

      AND 

      for the development of homegrown democratic social institutions.` 




01/21/12
  • 2AC Pitt Round 5 vs. Wake

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • INSTABILITY NOW – AT: GRANT

      Grant’s conclusion agrees

      George Grant, December, “Libya’s Transition 

      AND 

      Libya has the potential to successfully achieve a 

      AND 

      and anti-government hostility in the future.

      GOVERNANCE

      1) Plan isn’t governance assistance – its 

      AND 

      democratic institutions, elections, civil society etc.

      Democracy assistance includes expertise

      Lappin ‘9

      (Richard, Ph .D . candidate 

      AND 

      )

      Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as 

      AND 

      society groups, media groups and political parties.

      Counter-interpretation – Democracy assistance goverance

      Edward R. McMahon 2 Director, Center 

      AND 

      papers/usaid-apsa-full.html

      III. Defining Democracy Assistance

      The concept of assistance for democratic development has 

      AND 

      in only 29% of the cases. v 

      Donor agencies may differ somewhat in their definition 

      AND 

      , elections and political processes, and governance.

      The rule of law area addresses both constitutional 

      AND 

      justice, and increasing citizens' access to justice.

      Civil society has been defined as the "

      AND 

      of organizations that make up civil society. viii 

      There are a whole series of challenges that 

      AND 

      developing a sustained indigenous capability to address them.

      The concept of governance applies to a basket 

      AND 

      they develop and improve their institutions and processes.

      a) we solve limits– intenational counterplans 

      AND 

      the topic broader so we can actually debate.

      Predictability – our definition has government support –

      Huber 8

      (Daniela, Department of International Relations, 

      AND 

      .org/10.1080/13629390701864836)

      The term democracy assistance is used in academic 

      AND 

      accountable. (USAID, 2005: 4)

      Turns limits because the neg will just shift 

      AND 

      broader interpretation that includes all types of democracy assistance

      TRADEOFF

      No link – plan is cheap – would 

      AND 

      bucket of millions in aid to Pakistan per year 

      Plan comes from the regional response fund

      McInerney, 11 - is Executive Director of 

      AND 

      )

      The administration has wisely budgeted for further unexpected 

      AND 

      Syria, Libya, Yemen, or elsewhere. 

      No IL – two separate claims that budget 

      AND 

      the chopping block and wouldn’t come from somewhere else

      AID NOW

      Aid now 

      Zaw Win Than 12-11, staff 

      AND 

      2011/news/604/news3160406.html

      THE United States will beef up funding for 

      AND 

      the end of her three-day visit.

      “I am pleased to announce we will 

      AND 

      the US embassy in Yangon on December 2.

      She said the US government would increase assistance 

      AND 

      throughout Myanmar, particularly in ethnic minority areas.

      A particular focus will be the provision of 

      AND 

      of internal conflict, especially land mine victims.

      Mrs Clinton also announced several capacity-building 

      AND 

      on health, governance, and other matters.

      “We will launch a people-to

      AND 

      West Center” in Hawaii, she said.

      A senior US official who accompanied Clinton told 

      AND 

      $800,000, the official said.

      The senior official, who requested anonymity, 

      AND 

      Asian nations has welcomed US engagement with Myanmar.

      Clinton had also announced small steps on December 

      AND 

      for missing US dead from World War II.

      The US provides more than $38 million annually to various programs related to Myanmar, AFP reported.

      Mrs Clinton said on December 2 that the 

      AND 

      to go further if the reforms maintain momentum”.

      “I will once again reiterate to the 

      AND 

      aspirations of the people for a better future.”

      More aid now --- 

      Morocco 

      PR Newswire 12-23, “Congress

      AND 

      autonomy-solution-2011-12-23

      For the first time, U.S

      AND 

      the Western Sahara and elsewhere in the country.

      "As the region continues to be shaken 

      AND 

      life for those living in the Western Sahara."

      "This is great news and the logical 

      AND 

      and improve stability and security across the region." 

      Palestine

      JTA 12-30, “U.

      AND 

      releases-40-million-to-pa

      The United States transferred $40 million in foreign assistance to the Palestinians.  

      The Associated Press reported Thursday that congressional lawmakers 

      AND 

      to the Palestinians' actions at the United Nations.  

      Obama’s pushing more aid 

      NYT 12-7 “U.S

      AND 

      promote-gay-rights-abroad.html

      GENEVA — The Obama administration announced on Tuesday 

      AND 

      , to promote gay rights around the world.

      In a memorandum issued by President Obama in 

      AND 

      transgendered people, or ignore abuse against them. 

      Causes GOP backlash 

      David Gollust 12-9, VOA, 

      AND 

      Strong-Mixed-Reactions-135348253.html

      The Obama administration’s announcement that it will combat 

      AND 

      the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva.

      The United States has long advocated equal rights 

      AND 

      a U.S. foreign policy priority.

      Obama’s engaging the MB --- triggers GOP backlash 

      NYT 1/3 (DAVID D. 

      AND 

      ?_r=1&pagewanted=all)

      CAIRO — With the Muslim Brotherhood pulling within 

      AND 

      viewed as irreconcilably opposed to United States interests. 

      The administration’s overtures — including high-level 

      AND 

      Brotherhood’s Islamist ideology and historic ties to militants.

      The shift is, on one level, 

      AND 

      the vote moved into districts long considered strongholds.

      The reversal also reflects the administration’s growing acceptance 

      AND 

      international commitments, including Egypt’s treaty with Israel.

      And at the same time it underscores Washington’s 

      AND 

      against protesters seeking an end to their rule.

      The administration, however, has also sought 

      AND 

      , though new Congressional restrictions could force cuts.

      Nevertheless, as the Brotherhood moves toward an 

      AND 

      also confer greater international legitimacy on the Brotherhood.

      It would be “totally impractical” not 

      AND 

      the condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic affairs.

      “There doesn’t seem to me to be 

      AND 

      issues, and economic issues, as well.”

      Some close to the administration have even called 

      AND 

      Tunisia and Egypt in less than a year.

      “You’re certainly going to have to figure 

      AND 

      with top leaders of the Brotherhood’s political party.

      He compared the Obama administration’s outreach to President 

      AND 

      And it needs to step up its game.”

      In the meeting with the Brotherhood’s Freedom and 

      AND 

      other Western countries, especially in economic areas.

      “They certainly expressed a direction that shouldn’t 

      AND 

      Obviously the proof will be in the pudding.”

      Brotherhood leaders, for their part, often 

      AND 

      marginalized — parliamentary minority under Mr. Mubarak.

      They also seem to revel in their new 

      AND 

      his respect for the public will in Egypt.”

      “Egypt is a big country with a 

      AND 

      Brotherhood leaders said they told Mr. Kerry.

      But, on the group’s English language Web 

      AND 

      peoples of the world, if it wished.”

      On Tuesday, the administration intensified its criticism 

      AND 

      laden with conspiratorial and anti-American rhetoric.

      “It is, frankly, unacceptable to 

      AND 

      , including Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta.

      She called the officials behind the campaign against 

      AND 

      on the new page with the Egyptian people.”

      The administration’s willingness to engage with the Brotherhood 

      AND 

      outreach to the region’s Islamist opposition long ago. 

      AT: WARMING

      China and domestic politics prevents solving warming

      Hale, 11 - PhD Candidate in the 

      AND 

      11winter/docs/11winter_Hale.pdf

      Intergovernmental efforts to limit the gases that cause 

      AND 

      degree Celsius) increase in average global temperatures.

      It is not hard to see why. 

      AND 

      , at least not in the near future.

      Consensus of experts agree no impact to warming

      Hsu 10 

      Jeremy, Live Science Staff, July 19

      AND 

      His views deviate sharply from those of most 

      AND 

      essentially doing an experiment whose result remains uncertain." 

      Warming doesn’t risk extinction – historical resilience to environmental crises and their theories are ecopessimist

      Fettweis 11

      Christopher, Professor of Political Science @ Tulane

      AND 

      Great Power Peace, pg. 127-128

      It should go without saying that the planet's 

      AND 

      all other forms, be all but obsolete.

      Can’t solve warming even if we stopped all emissions today

      ANI 10

      3-2010, http://news.

      AND 

      climate-change-impacts-sayscientis.html

      According to Charles H. Greene, Cornell 

      AND 

      risks of dangerous climate change," said Green.

      2AC – LOANS CP 

      1) 1. Process cp’s are a voter—otherwise it’s a no cost option

      a. Kills affirmative ground—debate is 

      AND 

      block to answer vs a 5 minute 1AR.

      b. Anti-educational—process counterplans 

      AND 

      an in-depth examination of the literature.

      c. uniquely bad because there’s no solvency 

      AND 

      cp mechanism of credit to hire US experts.

      Perm: Do both

      Perm: Do the cp

      Perm: Do the plan and the United 

      AND 

      government support from the United States federal government.

      Gets rid of the for-profit aspect

      Not competitive -

      Their definition of assistance doesn’t apply – Loans make no sense in the context of hiring US government workers

      Lappin ‘9

      (Richard, Ph .D . candidate 

      AND 

      )

      Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as 

      AND 

      society groups, media groups and political parties.

      It can be conditional

      Santiso ‘3

      (Carlos, PhD in comparative political economy 

      AND 

      /ONLINE3_2002/Artsantiso.pdf)

      Another type of indirect democracy assistance strategy is 

      AND 

      of democratization and the direction of governance reform.

      Doesn’t solve cred – strong direct Obama action 

      AND 

      the perception that the US isn’t avoiding following.

      Requirements on aid kill cred

      White 11—Journalist @ New York Observer

      AND 

      foreign-aid-foreign-assistance.htm

      Most of that aid will come in the 

      AND 

      of self-determination underlying the Arab Spring.

      "The best thing is probably to just 

      AND 

      failed miserably in place after place after place."

      Requirements damage stability – they can already afford aid no reason they’d accept the loan

      Lacher 8/29 (Wolfgang, Associate 

      AND 

      -post-qadhafi-libya-withdraw)

      As Libya enters the post-Qadhafi era

      AND 

      an insurgency backed by the former regime’s constituencies.

      To help the NTC weather these challenges, 

      AND 

      the purpose of forming an inclusive new government.

      Although the approaches vary, all key players 

      AND 

      was central to the success of the revolution.

      Accordingly, the idea of an international police 

      AND 

      Its negative consequences would far outweigh its benefits. 

      Much of the same goes for a prominent 

      AND 

      easily become a dividing factor among the revolutionaries.

      The NTC and any transitional government emerging from 

      AND 

      but negotiating these changes is a domestic matter.

      This doesn’t mean that external players shouldn’t urge 

      AND 

      to directly influence the political process to come.

      Say no - Loan’s with interest are illegal in Libya

      Munro 11 (Neil Munro, The Daily 

      AND 

      Libya’s transitional government, established as a result 

      AND 

      banning Western-style interest on bank loans.

      Both provisions are features of Sharia, or 

      AND 

      introduced both some 1,400 years ago.

      On Sunday, Mustafa Abdul-Jalil abruptly 

      AND 

      U.S. officials have repeatedly fended 

      AND 

      20, shortly after Gadhafi’s death was announced.

      The same day, Obama insisted in a 

      AND 

      the ultimate rebuke to [the] dictatorship.”

      The president also used an Oct. 20 

      AND 

      the part of people for freedom and opportunity.”

      Since March, the U.S. 

      AND 

      out routes for the rebel offensive to use.

      Libya doesn’t need or want the loans 

      AND 

      contract US support they’ll do it without the interest

      Business report 11 (Business Report, “

      AND 

      As the rebels hunt Gaddafi and his remaining 

      AND 

      after popular revolts ousted their leaders this year.

      “We don’t need loans,” former Libyan 

      AND 

      to lift the freeze on Libya’s assets aboard.”

      The Libyan economy suffered as much as $

      AND 

      professor at the National Defense University in Washington.

      Bank deposits

      The central bank and the Libyan Investment Authority

      AND 

      , have about $168bn in assets abroad.

      About $50bn of that was in bank 

      AND 

      US and European government bonds, he added.

      Multiple conditional worlds are a voter:

      A) 2ac theft—forces untenable offense 

      AND 

      focus or framework to make our offense irrelevant.

      B) Decisionmaking—gives incentive to go 

      AND 

      positions which undermines logic and perverts neg flex.

             CAPITAL NB

      1. No link – their evidence is 

      AND 

      Libyans about democracy, words don’t cause inflation.

      AT: KISS OF DEATH

      Local ownership wrong

      Haas 11 (Lawrence J., 9/

      AND 

      -too-high-for.html)

      America cannot dictate the future of this economically 

      AND 

      and the world’s, it surely should try. 

      TNC has explicitly requested help from the USAID and it wouldn’t undermine local ownership

      Ward, 11

      (9/8, Deputy Assistant Administrator 

      AND 

      -humanitarian-and-transition-assistance/)

      Third, our role is changing from humanitarian 

      AND 

      evident throughout their struggle, is truly inspiring.

      DDR CP

      1. Perm: do both

      2. DOesn’t solve cred – must take 

      AND 

      but don’t provide necessary support that Libya asked for

      Plan boosts the NTC the means to disarm militias

      ICG 12-14, international crisis group 

      AND 

      In principle, there is little dispute among 

      AND 

      . It is time to get moving again.

      NTC not trusted now al-almeria – turns their corruption evidence its specific

      Allen 11 (Michael, Democracy Digest, 

      AND 

      -in-promoting-arab-democracy)

      “The best guarantee of stability is participation, pluralism and progress,” he says.

      The US can help the region’s people realize 

      AND 

      dialogues, and ensure transparent and effective governance.

      Mubarak willfully ignored the Bush administration’s pleas to 

      AND 

      political parties to flourish, argues Stephen Hadley.

      “Sadly, instead of fostering them, 

      AND 

      . But Mubarak now faces a stark choice.

      Will he seek to transfer power to another 

      AND 

      Egyptian people real choices for a democratic future?

      “The administration has an extraordinary opportunity to 

      AND 

      in a way that reconciles ideals and interests:

      The United States can help the region’s transition 

      AND 

      that are themselves democratic, peaceful and inclusive.

      This approach does not require the US to 

      AND 

      Arab democracy are now, finally, aligned.”

      That’s key to heg

      Finnemore 9 – Martha Finnemore, professor of 

      AND 

      ,” World Politics, Volume 61, Number 1

      The strength of a unipolar system depends heavily

      AND 

      a unipole as building armies or bank accounts.

      2AC – POLITICS – PAYROLL

      Boehner can’t whip up the necessary GOP votes 

      AND 

      push for a millionaires tax-dooming any extension

      Donna Smith, Reuters, 1/19 

      AND 

      )

      It is unclear whether House Speaker John Boehner

      AND 

      the wealthy over the struggling middle-class.

      That tax kills any chances

      Huff Post 1/18 (Payroll tax 

      AND 

      -extension_n_1212631.html)

      Q: How long can Democrats prolong the 

      AND 

      Democrats could be accused of blatantly playing politics. 

      Won’t pass-Riders, partisan fighting

      Business Week 1/19 (U.

      AND 

      )

      Congressional negotiators are refusing to budge from positions 

      AND 

      federal workers’ pay in his fiscal 2013 budget.  

      Keystone thumps the DA

      Jennifer Rubin, WPost Politics Correspondent, 1

      AND 

      Keystone XL decision hands the GOP a gift)

      A number of House and Senate Republicans have 

      AND 

      many examples Republicans will have at their fingertips.\

      Fights over Bush tax cuts thump the DA

      AND 

      be forced to take a stance and push now

      The Hill 1/18 (Obama's tax 

      AND 

      )

      President Obama faces a difficult choice in his 

      AND 

      House and Congress will be up for grabs.

      Libya aid empirically popular – NED proves

      McInerney 11 (Stephen, Director of Advocacy 

      AND 

      -Budget-Report-web.pdf)

      The National Endowment for Democracy  (NED) 

      AND 

      with transitions possible  in other Arab countries soon).

      Graham loves the plan

      Millard 8/22 (Hal, 2011

      AND 

      )

      With Muammar Gaddafi's 42-year dictatorship of 

      AND 

      dominated and oil-rich North African nation.

      "It is my hope and belief that 

      AND 

      a gathering of Rotarians in Columbia on Monday. 

      "It's going to be hard. … 

      AND 

      institutions that will serve the Libyan people well."

      Doing so is imperative and in the United States' best interest, he said.

      He’s key to the agenda

      NPR 10 (“Sen. Lindsay Graham: 

      AND 

      &f=1014,1017,1128)

      In the past year, political controversies as 

      AND 

      2001, terrorist attacks, in civilian court.

      GOP loves aid to libya

      FoxNews 10-21, “Republicans Push 

      AND 

      -role-in-rebuilding-libya/

      With Muammar Qaddafi finally out of the picture

      AND 

      need a lot of help in that direction.”

      No spending links – plan isn’t the provision of aid and it would be already funded anyway

      POMED, ‘11—Project on Middle 

      AND 

      -budget-bill-released.html/)

      Under the bill, the funding level for 

      AND 

      transitions in the Middle East and North Africa.

      Vote neg links to politics – plan put before congress and voted down

      Winner’s Win- 

      Marshall and Prins 11 (BRYAN W, 

      AND 

      Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3)

      Presidents rely heavily on Congress in converting their 

      AND 

      managing political capital at home (Fordham 2002).

      Issues are compartmentalized – political capital has no effect on legislation

      Dickinson, 09 – professor of political science 

      AND 

      -and-presidential-power/, JMP)

      As for Sotomayor, from here the path 

      AND 

      the likely politics of the nomination process below).

      What is of more interest to me, 

      AND 

      of a president’s veto power for the moment.)

      Despite the much publicized and celebrated instances of 

      AND 

      the decision to present Sotomayor as his nominee.

      If we want to measure Obama’s “power

      AND 

      power that cannot be measured through legislative boxscores.

      PC doesn’t solve --- GOP won’t compromise on spending issues  pre-election 

      Reuters 9-15, “Analysis: 

      AND 

      us-usa-congress-compromise-idUSTRE78E0SO20110915

      Republicans in Congress may have dialed back their 

      AND 

      likely to yield to an unpopular Democratic president.

      Coming off a bruising debt-ceiling debate 

      AND 

      to work with President Barack Obama wherever possible.

      But Republicans have little incentive to compromise on 

      AND 

      the agenda through the end of the year.

      Obama's negative approval rating gives him little clout 

      AND 

      opponents as a further repudiation of his policies.

      Many of Obama's proposals to stimulate the economy 

      AND 

      Republicans to approve the $447 billion package.

      Following the current Capitol Hill playbook, Republicans 

      AND 

      the public policy analysis firm The Washington Exchange.

      "Their new post-summer recess strategy 

      AND 

      their philosophical and political guns," Siegal said.

             AT: ECON

      Won’t have an economic stimulus effect-five reasons

      Bruce Bartlett held senior policy roles in the 

      AND 

      -a-payroll-tax-cut/)

      In theory, the payroll tax cut has 

      AND 

      should not be included in the tax wedge.

      CBO agrees

      Bruce Bartlett held senior policy roles in the 

      AND 

      )

      In August, The Wall Street Journal editorial 

      AND 

      how the payroll tax cut extension played out.

      No effect – Keynesianism wrong

      Louis Woodhill 12-21, columnist for 

      AND 

      It became clear before the financial markets opened 

      AND 

      a good place for the Republicans to start.

      Alt cause china

      New York Times 12-26

      (“Dealing With China’s Troubles”, 

      AND 

      )

      China’s economy seems to be in trouble, 

      AND 

      of appreciation of China’s currency has slowed markedly. 

      Heg solves inevitable economic decline

      Mandelbaum 2005 – Professor and Director of the American Foreign Policy Program at Johns Hopkins – 2005

      [Michael, The Case for Goliath: 

      AND 

      First Century, p. 192-195]

      Although the spread of nuclear weapons, with 

      AND 

      way resemble a fleet of cars without gasoline.

      Fed will step in

      Jon Hilsenrath, WSJ, 9/8 

      AND 

      .html?mod=googlenews_wsj)

      Federal Reserve officials are considering three unconventional steps 

      AND 

      meanwhile, are expressing support for additional action.

      No impact—last recession proves econ doesn’t determine conflict or instability

      Barnett 2009 – senior managing director of Enterra 

      AND 

      , WEA)

      When the global financial crisis struck roughly a 

      AND 

      no impact whatsoever on the international security landscape.

      None of the more than three-dozen 

      AND 

      struggle between Georgia and its two breakaway regions.

      Looking over the various databases, then, 

      AND 

      a process wholly unrelated to global economic trends.

      And with the United States effectively tied down 

      AND 

      to anything beyond advising and training local forces.

      So, to sum up:

      No significant uptick in mass violence or unrest 

      AND 

      in places like Greece, Moldova and Latvia?);

      The usual frequency maintained in civil conflicts (in all the usual places);

      Not a single state-on-state 

      AND 

      on-great-power crises even triggered);

      No great improvement or disruption in great-

      AND 

      new nuclear powers (despite all that diplomacy);

      A modest scaling back of international policing efforts 

      AND 

      Leviathan power (inevitable given the strain); and

      No serious efforts by any rising great power 

      AND 

      their aid and investments in Afghanistan and Iraq.)

      Sure, we've finally seen global defense spending 

      AND 

      great-power dynamic caused by the crisis.

      Can we say that the world has suffered 

      AND 

      radicalism as a result of the economic crisis?

      Indeed, no. The world's major economies 

      AND 

      toward free-trade agreements have not slowed.

      Can we say Islamic radicalism was inflamed by the economic crisis?

      If it was, that shift was clearly 

      AND 

      likely to breed connecting evangelicalism as disconnecting fundamentalism.

      At the end of the day, the 

      AND 

      undisciplined, so bring it on -- please!

      Add it all up and it's fair to 

      AND 

      -World War II international liberal trade order.

      Do I expect to read any analyses along those lines in the blogosphere any time soon?

      Absolutely not. I expect the fantastic fear

      AND 

      apace. That's what the Internet is for.

      Libya key to SAM plolif

      DOYLE 2011 (John, Washington area defense 

      AND 

      -boom-on-black-markets/)

      Forget rising oil prices, defense analysts say 

      AND 

      .1 billion a year in operating costs.

      That kills the Economy 

      EHRENFELD 12-9-11 (Rachel 

      AND 

      -to-US-airline-passengers)

      If terrorists get hold of some of Qaddafi's 

      AND 

      missiles, increasing the dangers to commercial carriers.

      U.S. isn’t key to the global economy --- its decoupled

      Caryl 10 (Christian, Contributing Editor – 

      AND 

      &hidecomments=yes&page=full)

      So what's different this time around? The 

      AND 

      -- unless you count Greece, of course.) 

      Many emerging economies entered the 2008-2009 

      AND 

      have to sneeze when America catches a cold. 

      Aphitchaya Nguanbanchong, a consultant for the British

      AND 

      intervening so much directly in the economy itself." 

      Heg will survive econ decline – also overall resilience

      Ferguson 2009 – Laurence A. Tisch Professor 

      AND 

      .cfm?piece=533, WEA)

      Yet commentators should hesitate before prophesying the decline 

      AND 

      in the 1940s and again in the 1980s.

      Part of the reason it happened is that 

      AND 

      Steve Jobs from founding Apple a year later.

      Moreover, the American political system has repeatedly 

      AND 

      remained of the Republican reputation for economic competence?

      But the most important reason why the United 

      AND 

      is also more politically disruptive to America’s rivals.

      Overwhelming resilience takes out their impact—3 distinct warrants

      Zakaria 2009 – PhD in political science from 

      AND 

      /226425/page/2, WEA)

      One year ago, the world seemed as 

      AND 

      to a degree not seen since the 1930s.

      Pundits whose bearishness had been vindicated predicted we 

      AND 

      fact, be worse than the Great Depression."

      Others predicted that these economic shocks would lead 

      AND 

      story predicting serious unrest in several emerging markets.

      Of one thing everyone was sure: nothing 

      AND 

      financial industry, not capitalism, not globalization.

      One year later, how much has the 

      AND 

      and political collapse have not materialized at all.

      A key measure of fear and fragility is 

      AND 

      and now we're back to business as usual?"

      This revival did not happen because markets managed 

      AND 

      governments played a tiny role in national economies.

      It's true that the massive state interventions of 

      AND 

      consumers, and companies seeking risk and profit.

      Beyond all this, though, I believe 

      AND 

      reinforcing the other and each historical in nature.

      The first is the spread of great-

      AND 

      1970s. Nothing like that is happening today.

      Peace is like oxygen, Harvard's Joseph Nye 

      AND 

      with many variants from Sweden to Hong Kong.

      This consensus enabled the expansion of the global 

      AND 

      instead prospered in recent elections throughout the West.

      The second force for stability is the victory

      AND 

      the future, a key precondition for stability.

      Political and economic stability have each reinforced the 

      AND 

      created a much more deeply connected global system.

      Managers in Arkansas can work with suppliers in 

      AND 

      fundamentally about knowledge being dispersed across our world.

      This diffusion of knowledge may actually be the 

      AND 

      done that. And they know the price.

      No double dip-best economic forecasting proves

      Brian O'Connell 12/8 (No Double

      AND 

      )

      Analysts at UCLA say the U.S

      AND 

      will combine to generate faster growth in 2013."




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