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Observation One: The Status Quo

The US has been silent on Bahrain and refused to engage the opposition—this guarantees eventual meltdown
ULRICHSEN 2011 (Kristian Coates Ulrichsen is a research fellow at the London School of Economics, “Gulf States: studious silence falls on Arab Spring,” Open Democracy, April 25, http://www.opendemocracy.net/kristian-coates-ulrichsen/gulf-states-studious-silence-falls-on-arab-spring)
The choice to suppress demonstrations rather than engage
AND
, the next explosion could be greater still.

Bahraini opposition groups are pressuring the US to withdraw the Fifth Fleet now but there’s no alternative
DIETZ 2011 (David, “Should the US Reconsider its Relationship with Bahrain?” The Mideaster, April 21,  http://themideaster.com/2011/04/21/should-the-us-reconsider-its-relationship-with-bahrain/)
Matar Ebrahim Matar, a leader of the
AND
as relocating the fleet would be to Saudi.

Hence the plan: The United States Department of Defense should expand its engagement with political, economic, and social actors in Bahrain over United States military presence, including assistance to ensure that the benefits of United States military presence are more broadly distributed.

Advantage One: Democracy

Democracy is receding worldwide – new studies show that democracy is at its lowest point in decades
KURLANTZICK 2011 (Joshua Kurlantzick is Fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, “New Republic: Optimism Spells Democracy's Decline,” NPR, May 31, http://www.npr.org/2011/05/31/136812788/new-republic-optimism-spells-democracys-decline)
As the revolt that started this past winter
AND
criticism of their own internal human rights abuses. 

Democracy solves war
Rieffer-Flanagan 10 (Barbara Ann J. Rieffer-Flanagan, assistant professor of political science at Central Washington University, “Democratic peace in theory and practice,” edited by Steven W. Hook, p. 264)

There are other aspects of liberal democracies that
AND
relations between states (Schafer & Walker 2006).

Statistical evidence proves democratic peace is true
Dafoe 11 (Allan Dafoe, Ph.D. candidate in the Travers Department of Political Science, Berkeley, “Statistical Critiques of the Democratic Peace: Caveat Emptor,” American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Issue 2, pages 247–262, April 2011)

The “democratic peace”—the inference that
AND
see George and Bennett 2004; Ray 1995).  

The plan solves – supporting Bahraini opposition makes democracy palatable globally
KURLANTZICK 2011 (Joshua Kurlantzick is Fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, “New Republic: Optimism Spells Democracy's Decline,” NPR, May 31, http://www.npr.org/2011/05/31/136812788/new-republic-optimism-spells-democracys-decline)

Then there is the United States, still
AND
is needed to give democracy a fighting chance.

Advantage Two: Naval Power

Democracy assistance is critical to maintain the fleet—failure to encourage dialogue will force withdrawal which collapses American military power and deterrence
STIMSON CENTER 2011 (The Henry L. Stimson Center is a nonprofit, nonpartisan institution devoted to enhancing international peace and security through a unique combination of rigorous analysis and outreach, “Anchors Away: The future of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain,” July 21, http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/the-us-fifth-fleet-in-bahrain/)
The home base of the US Navy's Fifth
AND
in preventing any of these scenarios from materializing.

The plan is critical to engage opposition groups and maintain support for US naval presence in Bahrain
COOLEY AND NEXON 2011 (Alexander, Assoc Prof Poli Sci at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies; Daniel, Assoc Prof School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#)
It is time for U.S.
AND
forced to scramble after it is under way.

Scenario One: the Gulf

Despite opposition to US power there’s no alternative—no one else can guarantee Middle Eastern stability in the short term, even if long-term withdrawal is inevitable
FREEMAN 2011 (Chas, Ambassador Freeman is a retired U.S. Foreign Service officer and president emeritus of the Middle East Policy Council, “The Arab Reawakening: Strategic Implications,” Middle East Policy, Summer, Lexis)
These changes are occurring as the United States
AND
in the corporate arena than in foreign policy.

Naval presence is key to deter Iran
Goure and Grant 9 (Dr. Daniel Goure, Vice President with the Lexington Institute, a nonprofit public-policy research organization, was a member of the 2001 Department of Defense Transition Team, erved as a senior analyst on national security and defense issues with the Center for Naval Analyses, Science Applications International Corporation, SRS Technologies, R&D Associates and System Planning Corporation, was the Deputy Director, International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Dr. Rebecca Grant,  Director of the General Billy Mitchell Institute for Airpower Studies at the Air Force Association, report is under consideration for publication in the Naval War College Review, “U.S. Naval Options for Influencing Iran,” April 2009) http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/library/resources/documents/Defense/us-naval-options.pdf
Engaging Iran is both a difficult and complex
AND
, dominate, stabilize and enable civil authority.  
There is no question that in the event of conflict with Iran, the Navy could exert tremendous pressure on Iran. Equally important, the U.S. Navy has many potential opportunities to influence Iran during peacetime and in the event of a crisis. What is particularly important is the number and variety of options available to support early shaping activities.
The Navy can take a leading role in
AND
will contribute significantly to deterrence of Iranian aggression.

Left unchecked, Iranian regional aggression causes nuclear war
Ben-Meir 7 (Alon Ben-Meir professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, Realpolitik: Ending Iran’s defiance, 2007, http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2007/02/06/Realpolitik-Ending-Irans-defiance/UPI-69491170778058/)
Feeling emboldened and unrestrained, Tehran may,
AND
severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.

Scenario Two: Global Sea Power

The perception of American bias towards Bahrain’s government feeds a global movement against US basing—the United States must find a middle ground in supporting the opposition or risk losing military bases in Bahrain and worldwide
COOLEY AND NEXON 2011 (Alexander, Assoc Prof Poli Sci at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies; Daniel, Assoc Prof School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#)
The use of force and foreign troops against
AND
to throw its autocratic friends under the bus.

Forward deployed naval power is critical to overall US capabilities—this allows us to deter and defeat any challenger and contain every impact
ENGLAND, JONES, AND CLARK 2011 (Gordon England is a former secretary of the Navy. General James Jones is a former commandant of the Marine Corps. Admiral Vern Clark is a former chief of naval operations; “The Necessity of U.S. Naval Power,” July 11, http://gcaptain.com/necessity-u-s-naval-power?27784)
The future security environment underscores two broad security
AND
need to meet the challenges of the future.

Overseas basing key to US power – laundry list of impacts
Kramer and Nelson 5 (Franklin D. Kramer, Chairman of the Atlantic Council, C. Richard Nelson, Atlantic Council, “Global Futures and Implications for U.S. Basing,” 6/1/5) http://www.acus.org/publication/global-futures-and-implications-us-basing
U.S. overseas bases serve as
AND S. power in a variety of ways.

Hegemony trumps every alternative—solves nuclear great power wars
Kagan, 07 – senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Robert, “End of Dreams, Return of History”, 7/19, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/07/end_of_dreams_return_of_histor.html) 

This is a good thing, and it
AND
to draw the United States back in again.

Can’t solve the root cause of war – democracy & deterrence empirically reduce its likelihood and escalation
Moore 4 – Dir. Center for Security Law @ University of Virginia, 7-time Presidential appointee, & Honorary Editor of the American Journal of International Law, Solving the War Puzzle: Beyond the Democratic Peace, John Norton Moore, pages 41-2.

PINK HIGHLIGHTING

If major interstate war is predominantly a product
AND
levels of deterrence are dramatically increased or decreased?

1AC Pre-empts 

Social science proves-multipolarity supports the natural incentive to seek status by fighting 

Wohlforth 2009-professor of government at Dartmouth, William, “Unipolarity, Status Competition, and Great Power War”, World Affairs, January, Project muse

The upshot is a near scholarly consensus 

Status tend to be zero sum.

Focus on critical theory makes effective action impossible-defer to empirics

David Owen, reader of Political Theory at Univ. of Southampton, Millenium Vol 31 No 3 2002 p. 655-657

Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ 

A potentially viscous circle arises.

Predictions in the context of demo promo are accurate and inherently valuable

Bruce Gilley 2005, PhD candidate at Princeton, “Should We Try to Predict Transitions to Democracy?: Lessons for China” The Whitehead Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations

Even if theory says we should

Usually a post-communist neoauthoritarianism.

Debate is key to influence policymaking on the Arab Spring-focus on alternative methods causes conservative Fill-In

Stephen M. Walt 2011, Harvard Kennedy School, August 2011, International Affairs and the Public Sphere, Faculty of Research Working Paper Series, HTTP://BIT.LY/OSDVUB

On the one hand, there is a widespread sense

Top of disciplinary hierarchy.

Gabrielle - gabrielletandet@gmail

PLANTEXT:

THE US DOD should epand its engagement with groups in Bahrain to facilitate broader distribution of access to political benefits.

Advantages are the same as GSU (heg, democracy)

These are some cards we've read about T.

Civil-military engagement is democracy assistance
Thomas Carothers, 1999, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, founder and director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program, which analyzes the state of democracy in the world and the efforts by the United States and other countries to promote democracy, Aiding democracy abroad: the learning curve, 196-199
CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS An additional area of
AND
call the policy shots in the ministries.34

Equality of access is democracy assistance
Huber ‘8
(Daniela, Department of International Relations, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies,” 2-7,

The term democracy assistance is used in academic
AND
Table 1 visualizes the different democracy promotion instruments.

Democracy assistance is defined by the action, not the target – it includes transfers of funds, expertise and material
Lappin ‘9
(Richard, Ph .D . candidate at the Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, "What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches  to Democratisation,”

Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as
AND
society groups, media groups and political parties.

Perm solves best
Richard Youngs, Politics Lecturer, University of Warwick, 2006, Europe and the Middle East: In the Shadow of September  11, p. 22
 < The EU was widely seen as
AND
decisions had already been taken in the region.

US power is key to EU foreign policy
Robert E. Hunter, Senior Fellow, RAND Corporation, and Former Ambassador to NATO, 1993-1998, Winter 2003/2004 (“Europe’s Leverage” – The Washington Quarterly) p. lexis
Nothing has happened to lessen the importance of
AND
powers— politically, economically, and militarily.

No tradeoff – empirically proven
Soren Dosenrode & Anders Stubkjaer, International Politics Professor and Lecturer, University of Aalborg, 2002, The European Union and the Middle East, p. 138
After more than twelve months of inertia in
AND
Jensen and Laursen 2000: 56-58)>

This is the politics link/internal link stuff that we've read.  If for some reason you want old uniqueness cards or SKFTA impact defense, I can email you cites for that.

No spillover
Dickinson 09 (Matthew Dickinson, prof of polisci at Middlebury, 5-26-09, “Sotomayor, Obama, and Presidential Power,”

What is of more interest to me,
AND
of a president’s veto power for the moment.)

Congress supports crackdown on Bahrain – proven by Saudi Arabian policy
Mainen 11 (Matthew Mainen is a policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, 5-11-11, “Time for legislation on Bahrain,”

Following September 11, however, Congress has
AND
since become one of the leading terrorism sponsors.

No link – plan would be implemented through the DOD & Obama wouldn’t get credit

Kerry supports the plan
Politico 11 (Laura Rozen, 2-17-11, “U.S. urges restraint on Bahrain after overnight attack,”

A top Senate appropriator has asked the State
AND
to voice their call for greater political freedom.”

Kerry is key to the agenda
NYT 11 (New York Times, July 14, “The All-American,”

The last time most Americans saw John Kerry
AND
says that Assad made good in each case.

Obama’s capital is resilient
Ari Melber 2008 (November 10, The Nation, “Obama’s secret email network revealed”,  
So even after the gauzy honeymoon talk fades
AND
-term priorities of the economy and Iraq.

Obama’s already urged reform within the regime – plan is just more of the same
WSJ 11 (March 5, 2011, “U.S. wavers on ‘Regime Change,’”

Arab diplomats believe the push worked. Defense
AND
that Bahrain was just too important to fail."

Capital doesn’t build support for legislation – congressional deals ensure Democratic support

Gary Andres, vice chairman of research at Dutko Worldwide, government affairs strategy firm,2010. The

Weekly Standard, “Obama and Legislative Power,” http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-and-

legislative-power

But as Texas A&M professor George C. Edwards III … ultimately help Democrats maintain their majority in Congress.

Capital creates partisanship and stalls the agenda

Ezra Klein, columnist at the Washington Post and political analyst at MSNBC, 3/21/2011. “Will Obama help

or hurt deficit negotiations?” http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/would-obama-help-or-

hurt-deficit-negotiations/2011/03/18/ABab9a8_blog.html

What the Gang of 64 asked from the president, … discover it holds fervently pro-cat beliefs.”

Political capital polarizes the debate – disengagement solves best

JamelleBouie, Knobler Fellow at The Nation Institute, 1/18/2011. “Taxes and Presidential

Leadership,” The American Prospect, http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/tapped_archive?

month=01&year=2011&base_name=taxes_and_presidential_leaders

I sympathize with Sullivan, but I'm not … if the president stays out of the conversation.

Loss of political capital speeds up the agenda

Ezra Klein, columnist at the Washington Post and political analyst at MSNBC, 3/21/2011. “Will Obama help

or hurt deficit negotiations?” http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/would-obama-help-or-

hurt-deficit-negotiations/2011/03/18/ABab9a8_blog.html

You can see why this puts modern … then covers — is not necessarily helpful.

Doubt in US presence kills heg, empowers Iran

Reva Bhalla, Director of Analysis at Stratfor , 7-19-2011, “The U.S.-Saudi Dilemma: Iran's Reshaping of Persian Gulf Politics,” Right Side News,

The threat of a double-cross is a ... U.S. support for the Sunni Arabs against Iran.

Threat fails – they’ll call our bluff

Traub 11 (James Traub, member of the Council on Foreign Relations, contributing writer for The New York Times Magazine, May 27, “Friend Request,” )

And maybe they were in no position to do so. ... they're going to find out whether he meant what he said.

Perception of bluffing causes deterrence failure – collapses heg

AnneSartori, Assc Prof of Poly Sci and Managerial Econ and Decision Sciences @ Northwestern University,2005(Deterrence by diplomacy, Princeton UP, pp. 105-109)

If my theory is correct, a reputation for honesty ... whether or not a reputation for resolve also does so.

Links to politics – military lobbies hate the CP

Turse 11 (Nick Turse, associate editor and research director of Tomdispatch.com. He is the author of The Complex: How the Military Invades Our Everyday Lives,  3-15-11, “How the Tiny Kingdom of Bahrain Strong-Armed the President of the United States,” )

In the midst of the violence, Human Rights Watch ...shadowy military bases, explain why.

The military owns Congress

Sauer 05 [Tom - post-doctoral research fellow of the Flemish Fund for Scientific Research and a lecturer at the Department of Politics at the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven in Belgium. Nuclear Inertia: US Nuclear Weapons Policy After the Cold War p.  89]

Beside  treaty   ratifications,  all  decisions  ...   and  more  dependent  on  the  military  in  this  regard.

CP’s threat holds no weight – Saudis fill in

Bronson 11 (Rachel Bronson, the author of "Thicker Than Oil: America's Uneasy Partnership With Saudi Arabia" and is the vice president of programs and studies at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Washington Post, Feb 27, 2011, “Could the next Mideast uprising happen in Saudi Arabia?” )

When King Abdullah returned to Saudi ... Egypt and reduce its leverage.

No leverage – assistance isn’t relevant

Mulrine 11 (Anna Mulrine, senior editor of the Nation & World section, covers defense for U.S.News & World Report, March 1, Christian Science Monitor, “US military assistance for foreign forces: a wise investment?”)

American national interests, moreover, ... leverage in these countries."

Aff: Harvard KT

Round #5   Tournament: Shirley

vs: Dartmouth AD

Judge: Mulholland

Plan Text – Bahrain Aff, PT on Wiki

1ac Advantages

Democracy

Navy

2ac Offense

1ar Strategy

Conditionality Bad extended

2ar Strategy

Heavy on Reasonability

Aff: Harvard KT

Round #4  Tournament: Shirley

vs: USC MP

Judge: Meiches

Plan Text

On wiki – Kentucky plan

1ac Advantages

Democracy

Naval Power/5^th Fleet

2ac Offense

Heg solves all impacts

Case outweighs DA

Plan solves Iran

1ar Strategy

Impact turns oil on DA

Heg solves DA

Case outweighs

2ar Strategy

Case outweighs

Heg solves

Impact turns

            Russian economy

            Ozone depletion

            Chavez invades Columbia

Note: this 1AC is structurally pretty much the same; it just includes some more cards at the bottom.  We might not read all of these cards in any given round.

Observation One: The Status Quo

The US has been silent on Bahrain and refused to engage the opposition—this guarantees eventual meltdown

ULRICHSEN 2011 (Kristian Coates Ulrichsen is a research fellow at the London School of Economics, “Gulf States: studious silence falls on Arab Spring,” Open Democracy, April 25, http://www.opendemocracy.net/kristian-coates-ulrichsen/gulf-states-studious-silence-falls-on-arab-spring)

The choice to suppress demonstrations rather …next explosion could be greater still.

Advantage One: Democracy

Democracy is declining worldwide

KURLANTZICK 2011 (Joshua Kurlantzick is Fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, “New Republic: Optimism Spells Democracy's Decline,” NPR, May 31, http://www.npr.org/2011/05/31/136812788/new-republic-optimism-spells-democracys-decline)

As the revolt that started this past winter in … criticism of their own internal human rights abuses. 

Democracy solves war

Rieffer-Flanagan 10 (Barbara Ann J. Rieffer-Flanagan, assistant professor of political science at Central Washington University, “Democratic peace in theory and practice,” edited by Steven W. Hook, p. 264)

There are other aspects of liberal democracies … expectations” and relations between states (Schafer & Walker 2006).

Statistical evidence proves democratic peace is true

Dafoe 11 (Allan Dafoe, Ph.D. candidate in the Travers Department of Political Science, Berkeley, “Statistical Critiques of the Democratic Peace: Caveat Emptor,” American Journal of Political Science, Volume 55, Issue 2, pages 247–262, April 2011)

The “democratic peace”—the inference that … literature, see George and Bennett 2004; Ray 1995).  

The plan solves – supporting Bahraini opposition makes US policy appear more consistent and sends a signal that democracy is a palatable alternative

KURLANTZICK 2011 (Joshua Kurlantzick is Fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, “New Republic: Optimism Spells Democracy's Decline,” NPR, May 31, http://www.npr.org/2011/05/31/136812788/new-republic-optimism-spells-democracys-decline)

Then there is the United States, still the most … needed to give democracy a fighting chance.

Advantage Two: Naval Power

Bahraini opposition groups are pressuring the US to withdraw the Fifth Fleet now but there’s no alternative 

DIETZ 2011 (David, “Should the US Reconsider its Relationship with Bahrain?” The Mideaster, April 21,  http://themideaster.com/2011/04/21/should-the-us-reconsider-its-relationship-with-bahrain/)

Matar Ebrahim Matar, a leader of the opposition Waefaq … were to propose such a move, an idea that is as distasteful to the US as relocating the fleet would be to Saudi.

US inaction results in getting kicked out of the base

Hiltermann 9-7 (Joost Hiltermann, deputy program director for Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, 2011, “Pushing for Reform in Bahrain: Washington’s Leverage over the Al-Khalifa Regime,” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68246/joost-r-hiltermann/pushing-for-reform-in-bahrain?page=show#)

If, however, the royal family (the crown prince … Washington, including the Fifth Fleet's presence.

The plan is critical to engage opposition groups and maintain support for US naval presence in Bahrain

COOLEY AND NEXON 2011 (Alexander, Assoc Prof Poli Sci at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies; Daniel, Assoc Prof School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#)

It is time for U.S. officials to reconsider … forced to scramble after it is under way.

Scenario One: the Gulf

Despite opposition to US power there’s no alternative—no one else can guarantee Middle Eastern stability in the short term, even if long-term withdrawal is inevitable

FREEMAN 2011 (Chas, Ambassador Freeman is a retired U.S. Foreign Service officer and president emeritus of the Middle East Policy Council, “The Arab Reawakening: Strategic Implications,” Middle East Policy, Summer, Lexis)

These changes are occurring as the United States … with East and South Asia. This is no less true in the corporate arena than in foreign policy.

Naval presence is key to deter Iran

Goure and Grant 9 (Dr. Daniel Goure, Vice President with the Lexington Institute, a nonprofit public-policy research organization, was a member of the 2001 Department of Defense Transition Team, erved as a senior analyst on national security and defense issues with the Center for Naval Analyses, Science Applications International Corporation, SRS Technologies, R&D Associates and System Planning Corporation, was the Deputy Director, International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Dr. Rebecca Grant,  Director of the General Billy Mitchell Institute for Airpower Studies at the , report is under consideration for publication in the Naval War College Review, “U.S. Naval Options for Influencing Iran,” April 2009)

Engaging Iran is both a difficult and complex … to deterrence of Iranian aggression.

Iran increasing naval aggression in the Gulf now

Aryan 9/20 (Hossein Aryan, “IRAN'S NAVAL-GAZING MORE POLITICAL THAN MILITARY,” 9/20/11) http://www.rferl.org/content/iran_navy_/24334129.html

When the Iranian Navy announced that its forces … ambition to stage more operations far from the country's territorial waters.

Left unchecked, Iranian regional aggression causes nuclear war
 Ben-Meir 7 (Alon Ben-Meir professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, Realpolitik: Ending Iran’s defiance, 2007, )

Feeling emboldened and unrestrained, Tehran may, …warn Iran of the severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.

Scenario Two: Global Sea Power

The perception of American bias towards Bahrain’s government feeds a global movement against US basing—the United States must find a middle ground in supporting the opposition or risk losing military bases in Bahrain and worldwide

COOLEY AND NEXON 2011 (Alexander, Assoc Prof Poli Sci at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies; Daniel, Assoc Prof School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#)

The use of force and foreign troops against peaceful … autocratic friends under the bus.

Lack of forward basing in the Gulf collapses overall US naval power

WHITENECK 2010 (Daniel Whiteneck • Michael Price • Neil Jenkins •Peter Swartz, CNA Analysis & Solutions, “The Navy at a Tipping Point: Maritime Dominance at Stake?” March, http://www.public.navy.mil/usff/documents/navy_at_tipping_point.pdf)

Is there a logical “tipping point” that can be … dominant maritime forces, you are at the “tipping point.”

Interactions with host population are key to basing

Jamali 9/5 (Lily Jamali, Columbia University - Graduate School of Journalism, Reporter/Producer at Freelance, “Questions About US Cooperation with Repressive Regimes,” 9/5/11)

US military strength has long depended on … become a model for how US bases operate around the world.

Even the perception of kickout kills credibility

Koplovsky 06 (Michael Koplovsky, current Director, Policy and Public Outreach, Bureau of Oceans, Environment and Science, U.S. Department of State; fmr. foreign service officer, US Department of State, 10-23-06, “Precipitating the Inevitable: The Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain,” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA463412&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)

Former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman … diplomatic initiatives and contributes to economic development.

Forward deployed naval power is critical to overall US capabilities—this allows us to deter and defeat any challenger and contain every impact 

ENGLAND, JONES, AND CLARK 2011 (Gordon England is a former secretary of the Navy. General James Jones is a former commandant of the Marine Corps. Admiral Vern Clark is a former chief of naval operations; “The Necessity of U.S. Naval Power,” July 11, http://gcaptain.com/necessity-u-s-naval-power?27784)

The future security environment underscores two broad security trends. First, … what we will need to meet the challenges of the future.

US naval power guarantees hegemony, prevents attacks on the US mainland, and deters potential rivals from even attempting to change the status quo

FRIEDMAN 2007 (George, PhD, Chief Executive Officer and founder of STRATFOR, “The Limitations and Necessity of Naval Power,” April 10, http://www.stratfor.com/limitations_and_necessity_naval_power)

This raises a more fundamental question: What is the value of … indispensable role the Navy plays in U.S. national security.

Hegemony trumps every alternative—solves nuclear great power wars

Kagan, 07 – senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Robert, “End of Dreams, Return of History”, 7/19, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/07/end_of_dreams_return_of_histor.html) 

This is a good thing, and it should continue to be a primary … one likely to draw the United States back in again.

Collapse of hegemony causes great power wars 

Zhang & Shi 11 (Yuhan Zhang is a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.  Lin Shi is from Columbia University. She also serves as an independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and a consultant for the World Bank in Washington, D.C.  January 22, 2011, “America’s decline: a harbinger of conflict and rivalry,” http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/)

Over the past two decades, no other state … least, is one possibility we can forecast in a future that will inevitably be devoid of unrivalled US primacy.

Conventional military deterrence is key – economic power isn’t enough

Grant 09 – Research Analyst @ Lexington Institute w/ emphasis on joint doctrine, air power, aerospace defense [Dr. Rebecca Grant (PhD in International Relations from the London School of Economics and Former lecturer at Air University and Air Command and Staff College, Maxwell Air Force Base), “Global Deterrence: The Role of F-22,” Lexington Institute, February 2009]

However, the balance may be shifting … they turn out to be occasional jostling or more serious face-offs.

We can’t relocate the fleet—Bahrain is the only option

GUNDUN AND ISODOR 2011 (James and Dwight, political scientists and counterinsurgency analysts at Octopus Mountain, “Winds of Change Rocking Bahrain’s Fifth Fleet,” The Trench, July 22, http://hadalzone.blogspot.com/2011/07/winds-of-change-rocking-bahrains-fifth.html)

No one can deny this fact. Many Bahrainis happen to view their … and 16,000-30,000 personnel. Naval Forces Central Command lists its staff at 28,000.

Just tripled democracy assistance

Sheridan 9/24

(WP Columnist, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-faces-hurdles-in-aiding-arab-spring-countries/2011/09/22/gIQAEqcOuK_story.html)

One of the most obvious areas in … “is less heated than it was,” the official said.

Massive aid package to Libya now

CBS News 10-18-11. 

The Obama administration offered millions of … to free elections and a new government after four decades of dictatorship.

Saudis only sent troops because of US approval

Ziabari 11 (Kouroush Ziabari, journalist, media correspondent, & literary author, contributing writer of Finland’s Award-winning Ovi Magazine and the the Foreign Policy Journal, March 19, 2011, “US gives green light to invade Bahrain,” http://previous.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=170769&sectionid=3510303)

Only a few hours after the US Secretary of Defense … injustice and discrimination imposed on them by the royal family of Al Khalifa.

The government empirically backs down when the US takes a stance

POMED 11 (Project on Middle East Democracy, “POMED Notes: “The Arab Spring and Bahrain”” October 2011) http://www.pomed.org/blog/2011/10/pomed-notes-the-arab-spring-and-bahrain.html/#.TqyvbN4Uq30

On Thursday, the Universal Muslim … recommendations of the Commission’s report.

Relations with Saudi Arabia are unshakable—defense and military ties, private assurances 

Teitelbaum 7/17—Joshua, Senior Fellow, Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies, Tel Aviv U. Adjunct Senior Lecturer, Middle Eastern History, Bar Ilan U. PhD, Tel Aviv U, 17 July 2011, Joshua, Empty Words: Saudi Blustering and US-Saudi Realities, http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/perspectives147.html

The Saudis are truly angry at the Obama … parting of the ways threatened by some Saudi officials.

Saudi-US tensions now

Shaikh 11 (Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Institution's Doha Center and Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy,
 previously served as the Special Assistant for the Middle East and Asia to the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs and as an adviser to former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, ““The Bahrain crisis and its regional dangers,” 3/23/11)

Bahrain represents the clearest indication … to civil war and avert a greater regional fallout.

Fleet solves regional stability – BMD 

Ellison 11—Riki, chairman and founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, "Unstable Momentum in Middle East Causes More US Need for Missile Defense", Feb 22, PR Newswire,

Today, for the first time in thirty years Iran is … Missile defense makes our world safer.

Credibility

Inaction on Syria makes Obama look weak internationally – that destroys US leadership

Gordon 11 (J.D. Gordon

AND

-over-his-head/#ixzz1Vgk2QcQB)

Developments this week with Libya and Syria show

AND

regimes to build up their own military arsenals.

Recent statements haven’t changed that – Obama still defers to the Arab League

Max Fisher, associate editor at The Atlantic

AND

-action-on-syria/250343/

The White House press office has just released

AND

and China would normally be able to block.

US action in Syria demonstrates leadership & consistency to the Arab world

Pletka 11-18 (Danielle Pletka is

AND

-the-front-on-syria/)

Consider the stakes: Syria is Iran's most

AND

were down, America was all but absent.

Government must act boldly in Syria to deter would-be adversaries

Max Boot, Fellow in National Security Studies

AND

-on-sidelines-about-syria/

It appears I was premature last week in

AND

sitting on the sidelines, mulling its options.

Lack of US leadership in Syria emboldens adversaries

Lee Smith, senior editory at The Weekly

AND

weekly-standard-hurry-assad-along

Last week the Obama administration's point man on

AND

therefore susceptible to subterfuge in myriad regional contexts.

Syria is pivotal to the regional balance of power

Ghitis 11 (Frida Ghitis, World Politics

AND

-leadership-amid-syrian-turmoil)

Of all the uprisings underway in the Middle

AND

and helping Iran project power beyond its borders.

Strong US is the only way to effectively counterbalance Iran

Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political

AND

America’s interest in preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear

AND

Iran, and demonstrate that commitment in practice.

Left unchecked, Iranian regional aggression causes

AND

)

Feeling emboldened and unrestrained, Tehran may,

AND

severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.

Only an active US policy solves – leading from behind is equivalent to not leading at all

Satloff 11 (Dr. Robert Satloff,

AND

.gov/112/sat062311.pdf)

At the same time, however, U

AND

importance as Syria is not leading at all. 

Stability

Syria is fraught with violence now – failure of opposition causes radicalization of tactics

Moni Basu, CNN, 12/23

AND

violence-escalation/?hpt=hp_t1

In the 10 months that Syrians have taken

AND

like this are going to become more likely."

Assad’s collapse is inevitable – it could

AND

could create a stable regime that serves US interests

James H. Anderson is a professor at

AND

what’s-next-assad-and-syria

Getting a clear read on developments in Syria

AND

opposition and external pressures hasten its inglorious end.

Syria collapse spills over to the entire Middle East

Nerguizian 12-13 (Aram Nerguizian is

AND

/publication/111213_SyriaMilitaryIntervention.pdf)

In the event of Syrian responses to international

AND

how Iraq reacts to further instability in Syria.

Conflict in Syria escalates to a major regional war – draws in the US and Russia

Peter Goodspeed, National Post, 12/

AND

-the-brink-of-war/

As Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad clings

AND

a regional rivalry between Iran and its adversaries.

US-Russia conflict in the Middle East goes nuclear

LaRouche 12-9 (Lyndon LaRouche,

AND

/eirv38n48-20111209/index.html)

"What's happened is, the U.

AND

the entirety of Asia, and other places."

The risk of war is uniquely high now – Arab Spring changed security calculus

Singh 11 (Michael Singh, managing director

AND

/templateC05.php?CID=3413)

On a more fundamental level, however,

AND

mark, with several states competing for primacy.

If Assad perceives slow regime collapse he’ll

AND

Israel – provokes massive regional nuclear and chemical war

Ceren 11 (Omri Ceren, founder and

AND

/01/syrian-collapse-israel/)

But the continued stability of the Syrian regime

AND

will not cause Israeli politicians to overreact less.

CBW attack involving Israel escalates to nuclear war

Wilson 11 (Matthew Wilson, actuary &

AND

-along-the-israeli-border/)

Both Iran and Syria, worried about spreading

AND

chemical weapons. Hezbollah may have chemical weapons.

Draws in nuclear powers & goes global

Steinbach 07 [John Steinbach, Center for

AND

.ca/articles/STE203A.html]

Meanwhile, the existence of an arsenal of

AND

could trigger a world conflagration." (44)

Independently, CBW attacks ensure extinction

Kellman ‘8 (Barry Kellman is the

AND

-April09/MJ2008_Kellman.pdf)

A looming danger confronts the world—the

AND

challenges could have dire consequences for all humanity.

Better civil society organization avoids sectarian violence

James Harkin, Guardian, 12/16

AND

opposition-media-war?newsfeed=true

But what's also clear is that some activists

AND

the traps laid for them by geopolitical manoeuvring. 

A more active US role enables Syria to avoid civil war – quick intervention limits violence

Hussein Ibish, Senior Fellow at the American

AND

managed_transition”_syria_has_failed

After last weekend’s massacre, the prospect of

AND

its destabilization of the region is better contained.

Quick intervention is critical to prevent a slow slide into violence and civil war

Tabler 11 (Andrew J. Tabler is

AND

/html/pdf/TablerSenate20111109.pdf)

Increasing numbers in the Syrian opposition are seeking

AND

likely to become and spread to neighboring countries.

US-led coalitions can pressure Assad into stepping aside peacefully rather than escalating violence

Young 11 (Michael Young is opinion editor

AND

-crackdown-in-hama.html)

The administration has claimed that its leverage over

AND

been addressing the far larger community of nations.

Plan

The United States federal government should provide civil resistance assistance for Syria. 

Solvency

Civil society and internet assistance fractures the regime, causing it to go peacefully

Jessica Rettig, US News and World Report

AND

could-encourage-peace-in-syria

From army defectors to militant gangs, violent

AND

we're seen to be meddling," he says.

Increased political engagement with opposition groups & striking workers undermines Assad & moderates the opposition

Fry et al 11/8, Jamie

AND

-a-post-assad-syria/

To begin with, Washington should immediately intensify

AND

the remainder from our European and Arab partners.

US civil society assistance helps opposition groups organize effectively & unify

Karlin & Tabler 11 (Mara E.

AND

-of-days-for-assad)

To further assist the Syrian opposition, Washington

AND

other words, not the current minority system).

Unified opposition key to persuade regime supporters to switch sides

Seelye 11 (Kate Seelye is vice president

AND

_along?page=0,0)

The reasons for the Syrian opposition's inability to

AND

uprising remains little more than a distant hope.

Only US leadership encourages minorities to abandon the regime

Matthew RJ Brodsky is the Director of Policy

AND

ratchet-up-pressure-on-syria

With NATO calling off military operations in Libya

AND

aside", and then wait to see what happens

US support is positively perceived – Obama is widely popular

Gordon 11, J.D.Gordon

AND

-arent-pushing-harder-democracy/

In the wake of Hariri’s assassination and resulting

AND

to imagine a new government being any worse.

A2: Opposition Not Unified

Opposition is unified, will work together

Choksy & Choksy 11 (Carol E. B. Choksy is adjunct lecturer in Strategic Intelligence and Information Management at Indiana University. She also is CEO of IRAD Strategic Consulting.  Jamsheed K. Choksy is professor of Central Eurasian, Islamic, and International studies, senior fellow of the Center on American and Global Security, and former director of the Middle Eastern studies program at Indiana University, Bloomington. He is also a member of the National Council on the Humanities at the U.S. National Endowment for the Humanities.  September 29, 2011, “The Syrian Opposition: A Strategic Analysis,” Small Wars Journal, http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-syrian-opposition-a-strategic-analysis)

Even if the Syrian revolution produces an armed … the Syrian people’s “legitimate demands for political reform.”

A2: Chilling Effect

US is popular with the opposition

David Schenker is Aufzien Fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 10/25/2011, “A Fighting Chance: Why Obama’s Support For Syria’s Non-Violent Protests Isn’t Enough,” http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/96607/syria-bashar-al-assad-obama-ambassador-robert-ford

Since this summer, the United States has generally …has unambiguously aligned Washington with regime opponents.

Pressure SNC 2AC

Visibility of US funds is key to solving

McInerney, 10 (Stephen McInerney is Director of Advocacy for the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED). He has extensive experience in the Middle East and North Africa, including graduate studies of Middle Eastern politics, history, and the Arabic language at the American University of Beirut and the American University in Cairo. He has spoken on Middle East affairs with numerous media outlets including MSNBC and CBS News. His writing on Middle East affairs and U.S. policy has been published by the Carnegie Endowment’s Arab Reform Bulletin, The Daily Star, The New Republic, Foreign Policy, and The Washington Post. He received a Masters degree from Stanford University, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations 

Certainly, budget numbers and funding levels alone …of the administration’s commitment to declared priorities.

EU 2AC

Normal means is host country government gets a veto – Assad would say no to the CP or just aid his civil society groups

Youngs 06 (Richard Youngs, director general of Fundación para las Relaciones Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior. He is also assistant professor at the University of Warwick, October 2006, “Europe’s flawed approach to Arab democracy,” http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/people/youngs/publications/europes_floored_approach.pdf)

Individual member-states have not performed … be agreed with Middle  Eastern governments.

US action is key to prevent spoilers – EU is too weak to defy external pressure

Grygiel 11 (*Dr. Jakub Grygiel is a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and the George H.W. Bush Associate Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins-SAIS, 10-6-11, “Democracy promotion – a geostrategic contest,” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/10/democracy-promotion-a-geostrategic-contest/)

Finally, we cannot outsource democracy promotion … potentially dangerous geopolitical consequences of their actions.

Means the EU fails at counterbalancing Iran

Badran 11 (Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, September 29, 2011, “The uncomfortable reality in Syria,” http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArchiveDetails.aspx?ID=316485)

But without a fallback plan, Washington is only … ensuring the demise of the Assad regime.

US leadership is critical to form international coalitions

Kessler 11 (Oren Kessler, Middle East Affairs correspondent – Jerusalem Post, 8-18-11, “Turkey: Syrian situation may become Libya-style civil war,” http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=234226)

Michael Singh, a former Middle East director … Security Council. That’s what we’re not seeing.”

Payroll Tax 2AC

Payroll tax cut has no economic impact – studies agree

Bruce Bartlett held senior policy roles in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations and served on the staffs of Representatives Jack Kemp and Ron Paul, 12/27 (How Politics came to dominate payroll tax debate, )

In August, The Wall Street Journal editorial page … had little to do with how the payroll tax cut extension played out.

No impact – it’s temporary

Jed Graham, Investor's Business Daily, 11/7 (Obama's fiscal rollercoaster won't excite economy, )

Democrats and Republicans may never agree on the … may be less likely to spend any temporary tax windfall.

Economic collapse does not cause war

FERGUSON 2006 (Niall, MA, D.Phil., is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University. He is a resident faculty member of the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies. He is also a Senior Reseach Fellow of Jesus College, Oxford University, and a Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct)

Nor can economic crises explain the bloodshed. … economic crises were not followed by wars

Won’t pass-ideological disagreements and Congressional committee process guarantee failure

 Mark Thoma, Wall Street Pit correspondent, 12/31 (Will the Payroll tax cut be extended through the end of 2012, )

Steve Benen doesn’t think there’s a very good chance … spending on social insurance programs.

Won’t pass-policy disagreements, election year, funding battle, and unemployment insurance thumps the DA

Robert Pear, NYT contributor, 12/26 (Congress delays political struggle, )

When Congress handily passed a bill to set … linked to growth of the nation’s economy.  

Tripled democracy aid

Sheridan 11

(9/24/11, WP Columnist, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-faces-hurdles-in-aiding-arab-spring-countries/2011/09/22/gIQAEqcOuK_story.html)

One of the most obvious areas in … “is less heated than it was,” the official said.

No spillover

Dickinson 09 (Matthew Dickinson, prof of polisci at Middlebury, 5-26-09, “Sotomayor, Obama, and Presidential Power,” http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/

What is of more interest to me, however, is … importance of a president’s veto power for the moment.)

Bipartisan support for tougher Syria policy

Politico 11 (8-18-11, “Obama almost wins over Hill on Syria,” http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61658.html)

President Barack Obama almost caught a … said they agreed with Obama that Assad should resign.

Russia Relations 2AC

Russia is hedging – no longer major supporter of Assad

Steve Gutterman, Reuters, 12/17/2011, “Russia's Syria shift a bid to guard image, interests,” http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/12/17/russia-syria-idINDEE7BG02220111217

Russia's offer of a new U.N. Security Council … but is not a protector of Assad's regime," he said.  

Relations low over Syria now

LaFranchi 12-23 (Howard LaFranchi, 30-year diplomatic correspondent at the Christian Science Monitor, “US-Russia ties: Chill over Syria replaces warmth of Obama's 'reset' policy,” http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2011/1223/US-Russia-ties-Chill-over-Syria-replaces-warmth-of-Obama-s-reset-policy)

Remember President Obama’s “reset” of US-Russia … the killing that is happening before our very eyes?”

Relations are resilient – domestic concerns cause conflict but it’ll inevitably be resolved

McDowell 11 (Daragh McDowell is a doctoral candidate in International Relations at the University of Oxford. His research is primarily focused on Russian post-Soviet foreign policy, 8-22-11, “Don’t Sweat the Russia ‘Reset’,” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9837/dont-sweat-the-russia-reset)

In a word, no. There has been no major … doing any lasting damage that can't be easily repaired.

New plan text- 

The United States Federal Government should provide democratic civil resistance assistance to Syria.

2AC T – DA is Political

Civil society aid is directly political

Carothers ‘9

(Thomas, , vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, A.B., Harvard College; M.Sc., London School of Economics; J.D., Harvard Law School, “Revitalizing Democracy Assistance,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/revitalizing_democracy_assistance.pdf)

Evidently enough, all of USAID’s … groups that  work to improve governance.

Democracy assistance includes support for institutions and civil society

Huber ‘8

(Daniela, Department of International Relations, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies,” 2-7, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13629390701864836)

The term democracy assistance is used … the different democracy promotion instruments.

Outcomes are irrelevant to democracy assistance

NED 06 (National Endowment for Democracy, June 8, 2006, “The Backlash against Democracy assistance,” NED report prepared for the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, http://www.ned.org/docs/backlash06.pdf)

Regime change and democracy assistance … resolve differences through peaceful means.

Collapse 2AC

Inevitable – sanctions & politics

Richard Spencer, The Daily Telegraph’s Middle East correspondent, 1/18/2012, “Assad will be deposed within three months, says Syrian MP,” Lexis

SYRIA'S President Bashar al-Assad will be … sanctions, has hit power supplies and raised prices in the shops.

momentum and economic woes

Ladqani and Jaza'iri 12/12, Mousa Ladqani and Isa Al-Jaza'iri, In Defence of Marxism, 12/12/2011, "Syria: Assad regime beginning to crack as revolution moves to higher level," www.marxist.com/syria-assad-regime-beginning-to-crack.htm

Far from being "over", as the regime keeps … their tanks with heating oil for their home furnaces.

Military will eventually defect

Hussain Abdul-Hussain is the Washington Bureau Chief of Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Rai, 10/3/2011, “Assad is growing weaker,” http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=317759&MID=0&PID=0

More soldiers will probably defect, and some … force Assad to give up or it will give up on him.

K 2AC

Positivism is the best epistemology—the alt creates epistemological anarchy and destroys empirical analysis

Brown 11 (Vernon, Cardiff U,  “The Reflectivist Critique of Positivist IR Theory”, http://www.e-ir.info/?p=7328)

There is a great deal of support for … evolving, could provide the stability needed.

No root cause of war

Joshua Goldstein, 2001, Professor of International Relations at American University, War and Gender, 412

First, peace activists face a dilemma in thinking about causes of war … to be empirically inadequate.

Extinction outweighs value to life – life is a prerequisite to value & people decide their own value

Schwartz 2 (Lisa, Medical Ethics, http://www.fleshandbones.com/readingroom/pdf/399.pdf)

The second assertion made by supporters … that we must treat persons as rational and as ends in themselves.

Reps don’t shape reality

Tuathail 96 (Gearoid, Department of Georgraphy at Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Political Geography, 15(6-7), p. 664, science direct)

While theoretical debates at academic conferences  … to always be open to the patterned mess that is  human history.

Impacts aren’t inevitable – policies solve

Kurasawa, 04 (Professor of Sociology, York University of Toronto, Fuyuki, Constellations Volume 11, No 4, 2004).

Moreover, keeping in mind the sobering lessons … upon future generations if left unchallenged.

Alt can’t change security constructions

Wendt 92

(Alexander, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Chicago, “Anarchy is what States Make of it: The Social Construction of Power Politics, International Organization, VOl. 46, no. 2.)

Let us assume that processes of identity- and interest-… they are almost impossible to transform.

The alt causes backlash not change

Burke, lecturer at Adelaide University School of History and Politics, 2007

[Anthony, Beyond Security, Ethics and Violence: War against the Other. pp.93]

Once we attempt to enact an ethics of … measure due to his secular and liberal response'.84

Charity Funding CP 2AC

Official US funding is key to solve – opposition groups reject the CP & it is comparatively worse

Wittes 08 (Tamara Cofman Wittes, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs at the United States Department of State, former senior fellow at Brookings, Freedom's unsteady march: America's role in building Arab democracy, p. 120, google books)

Despite the failings of the Middle East Partnership … U.S. official attention when they need diplomatic backup.

Donations encourage self-sufficiency that devolves into sectarian civil war-means the case is a DA to the CP

Eurasia Review 12/21 (Syrian Uprising Its Impact on Iran and Possibility of Civil War, http://www.eurasiareview.com/21122011-syrian-uprising-its-impact-on-iran-and-possibility-of-civil-war-analysis/)

The Syrian opposition in turn is becoming … between the Alawite minority and Sunni majority. 

Payroll Tax 2AC

Payroll tax cut has no economic impact – studies agree

Bruce Bartlett held senior policy roles in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations and served on the staffs of Representatives Jack Kemp and Ron Paul, 12/27 (How Politics came to dominate payroll tax debate, http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/27/how-politics-came-to-dominate-payroll-tax-debate/)

In August, The Wall Street Journal editorial … tax cut extension played out.

Won’t pass – partisan fighting

Business Week 1/19 (U.S. Payroll tax cut conferees standing firm on differences, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-19/u-s-payroll-tax-cut-conferees-standing-firm-on-differences.html)

Congressional negotiators are refusing to budge from … federal workers’ pay in his fiscal 2013 budget. 

Aid now – Morocco

PR Newswire 12-23-11 [“Congress, President Approve Extending U.S. Aid for Morocco Reforms to Western Sahara, Advance U.S. Policy Backing Moroccan Autonomy Solution,” http://www.marketwatch.com/story/congress-president-approve-extending-us-aid-for-morocco-reforms-to-western-sahara-advance-us-policy-backing-moroccan-autonomy-solution-2011-12-23]

For first time, directs that U.S. aid to … stability and security across the region."

Keystone thumps the DA

Jennifer Rubin, WPost Politics Correspondent, 1/18 (Keystone XL decision hands the GOP a gift)

A number of House and Senate Republicans … of many examples Republicans will have at their fingertips.\

No spillover

Dickinson 09 (Matthew Dickinson, prof of polisci at Middlebury, 5-26-09, “Sotomayor, Obama, and Presidential Power,” http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/

What is of more interest to me, however, is … importance of a president’s veto power for the moment.)

Winners win

Singer 2009 3/3 (Jonathan, MY DD [Direct Democracy], http://www.mydd.com/story/2009/3/3/191825/0428) 

Peter Hart gets at a key point. Some … to energy reform to ending the war in Iraq.

Congress wants to support the opposition, and the link is inevitable

VOA, 12/14/2011, Voice of America, "US Congressional Panel Seeks to Aid Syrian Opposition," http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/US-Congressional-Panel-Looks-for-Ways-to-Help-Syrian-Opposition-135604588.html

A congressional subcommittee panel on Wednesday … served themselves at Syria’s expense,” added Hof.

Aid now and Congressional support for stronger action on Syria

Josh Rogin, Foreign Policy, 12/28/2011, "Obama administration secretly preparing options for aiding the Syrian opposition," thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/28/obama_administration_secretly_preparing_options_for_aiding_the_syrian_opposition

As the violence in Syria spirals out of … before getting more involved.

Coercion 2AC

Turn—elevating rights over extinction destroys their value & causes extinction

Schell, 82  (Jonathan, writer for the New Yorker and nuclear weapons expert, The Fate of the Earth)

For the generations that now have to …, and let human life go on.

Extinction precludes discussion of political and economic systems – the debate is about which advocacy is best able to prevent extinction.

Rothbard ’73, Murray N., Head of Mises Institute, PhD in Economics from Columbia University, 1973 (“For a New Liberty: The Libertarian Manifesto, http://www.mises.org/rothbard/newlibertywhole.asp#p263)

Many libertarians are uncomfortable with foreign … of ending the nuclear threat.

2AC T – DA is Political

W/m – the plan is for civil society – civil resistnce is the mechanism by which we help them

Civil society aid is directly political

Carothers ‘9

(Thomas, , vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, A.B., Harvard College; M.Sc., London School of Economics; J.D., Harvard Law School, “Revitalizing Democracy Assistance,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/revitalizing_democracy_assistance.pdf)

Evidently enough, all of USAID’s democracy … that  work to improve governance.

Democracy assistance includes support for institutions and civil society

Huber ‘8

(Daniela, Department of International Relations, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies,” 2-7, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13629390701864836)

The term democracy assistance is used in … different democracy promotion instruments.

Limits – ev defines a narrow number of core mechanisms, guarantees neg generics; their interpretation is unlimiting because the word ‘political’ doesn’t mean anything.  Their ev defines demo assistance by its result – our ev defines it by the process – they mix burdenz which removes all limit on the topic

Err aff on reasonability – good is good enough, competing interpretations = arbitrary race to most limiting, aff never wins – particularly true on this topic –  there are no solvency advocates with US key warrants and things are constantly changing for the aff while neg ground remains static, topic is overwhelmingly slanted toward the neg

US Expertise Key

US expertise is critical – only US diplomats have experience and contacts

Silverman 12-7 (Lt. Col. Michael E. Silverman, US Army (ret) served in the military for over 25 years including three combat tours in Iraq. He is the author of “Awakening Victory: How Iraqi Tribes and American Troops Reclaimed al Anbar Province and Defeated al Qaeda In Iraq,” which was released in October 2011. He currently serves as a consultant to the US Army and is recognized as an expert on counterinsurgency.  12-7-11, “Syria isn't Libya: Obama must consider bolder intervention,” http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2011/1207/Syria-isn-t-Libya-Obama-must-consider-bolder-intervention)

US officials need to proceed cautiously, of course, … to influence the future of Syria.

A2: Kiss of Death

Assad will always label the opposition as Western regardless of whether we’re helping them or not

1AC Gordon – US is positively perceived

Other issues trump foreign policy ideology for protesters

Badran 11, Tony Badran, Research Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), 3/25/2011, “Syria’s Assad No Longer in Vogue,” Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67677/tony-badran/syrias-assad-no-longer-in-vogue?page=show

The idea that Assad’s anti-Western ideology is popular … political participation has proved wrong.

US is popular with the opposition

David Schenker is Aufzien Fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 10/25/2011, “A Fighting Chance: Why Obama’s Support For Syria’s Non-Violent Protests Isn’t Enough,” http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/96607/syria-bashar-al-assad-obama-ambassador-robert-ford

Since this summer, the United States has generally …unambiguously aligned Washington with regime opponents.

US won’t taint protests – people in the streets respect US efforts & that’s non-unique anyway

Jonathan S. Tobin, senior online editor of Commentary magazine & its chief politics blogger, 7-8-11, “U.S. support doesn’t taint Syrian protests,” http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/07/08/american-support-doesn%E2%80%99t-taint-syrian-protests/)

U.S. Ambassador Robert S. Ford and his French … to dissidents who will now know they are not alone.

Turkey 2AC

Turkey militarizes the opposition

Segev 12/13, Samuel, Middle East correspondent, 12/13/11 (“Turkey thrown for loop,” http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/westview/turkey-thrown-for-loop-135492763.html)

Istanbul became the headquarters of the main Syrian opposition group, the Syrian National Council, headed by Burhan Ghalioun, an intellectual who lived in Paris. He is the preferred U.S.-Turkish choice as future president. Under strong Turkish pressure, Ghalioun met … the Turkish border; in Homs -- near Lebanon's border.

Opposition says no – don’t like Turkish diplomacy

Ajami 1-6 (Fouad Ajami, senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution and co-chair of Hoover's Working Group on Islamism and the International Order, 1-6-12, “America and the Solitude of the Syrians,” Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203462304577139434278336136.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan … have despaired of the false promises given by Mr. Erdogan.

Turkish lead causes PKK violence in Turkey

Soner Cagaptay is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 10/29/2011, “Why Syria and Iran are becoming Turkey’s enemies, again,” http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/29/why-syria-and-iran-are-becoming-turkey%E2%80%99s-enemies-again/

Eight years later, Tehran is re-evaluating its strategic … throw in the towel and let Syria be.

Nuclear war

Gulriz Gigi Gokcek, Department of Political Science, UC Santa Barbara, 3/27/2002, “Ethnic Conflict and Interstate War: An Analysis of the Kurdish Problem,” http://isanet.ccit.arizona.edu/noarchive/gokcek.html

Fortunately, the 1998 crisis ended peacefully … raising the ethnic conflict to a whole new level. 

Democracy K 2AC

Positivism is the best epistemology—the alt creates epistemological anarchy and destroys empirical analysis

Brown 11 (Vernon, Cardiff U,  “The Reflectivist Critique of Positivist IR Theory”, http://www.e-ir.info/?p=7328)

There is a great deal of support for the positivist approach in IR …continually evolving, could provide the stability needed.

The alt fails--the criticism of democracy assistance produces political fragmentation and no relevant policy prescriptions

Kurki 11 (Milja, International Politics Department, Aberystwyth University, UK,  “The Limitations of the ‘Critical Edge’: Reflections on Critical and Philosophical IR Scholarship Today”, Millennium, 7 July)

This pessimism on the question of progressive alternative … discussion towards a more (self-) critical analysis of critical theory in IR.

Jackson-Vanik 2AC

Alt causes to relations

NPR 1/21 (New US Ambassador Already facing critics in Russia, http://www.npr.org/2012/01/21/145532923/new-u-s-ambassador-already-facing-critics-in-russia)

In the early days of the Obama administration, …the protesters a signal to take to the streets.

No spillover

Pavel Koshkin, Russia Beyond the Headlines contributor, 1/19 (Lavrov picks a fight over trade, http://rbth.ru/articles/2012/01/19/lavrov_picks_a_fight_over_trade_relations_14217.html)

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has warned …be only welcomed in some economic cycles.”

Won’t pass-GOP opposition, Lavrov statements, and Obama won’t use sufficient capital

Pavel Koshkin, Russia Beyond the Headlines contributor, 1/19 (Lavrov picks a fight over trade, http://rbth.ru/articles/2012/01/19/lavrov_picks_a_fight_over_trade_relations_14217.html)

Feifer also questions the effectiveness of such a … their careers on it,” he said. “Now this document has evolved into an element of a PR campaign.”

Obama can’t overcome GOP opposition

Nataliya Vasilyeva, AP correspondent, 1/18 (http://articles.boston.com/2012-01-18/news/30639898_1_wto-lavrov-trade-relations)

American businessmen and the U.S. administration have … in place because of “domestic American problems.’’

Obama won’t use capital

Edward Lozansky is president of American University in Moscow and Professor of the Department of World Politics at the Moscow State University, 1/19 (http://www.russiablog.org/2012/01/time-to-end-an-jackson-vanik-obama-executive.php)

The December statement from the White House includes … administrations to lift this discriminatory treatment amounts to just passing the buck.

Aid now – Morocco

PR Newswire 12-23-11 [“Congress, President Approve Extending U.S. Aid for Morocco Reforms to Western Sahara, Advance U.S. Policy Backing Moroccan Autonomy Solution,” http://www.marketwatch.com/story/congress-president-approve-extending-us-aid-for-morocco-reforms-to-western-sahara-advance-us-policy-backing-moroccan-autonomy-solution-2011-12-23]

For first time, directs that U.S. aid to Morocco can be … reform agenda and improve stability and security across the region."

Keystone thumps the DA

Jennifer Rubin, WPost Politics Correspondent, 1/18 (Keystone XL decision hands the GOP a gift)

A number of House and Senate Republicans have … is just one of many examples Republicans will have at their fingertips.\

Winners win

Singer 2009 3/3 (Jonathan, MY DD [Direct Democracy], http://www.mydd.com/story/2009/3/3/191825/0428) 

Peter Hart gets at a key point. Some believe that … on anything from universal healthcare to energy reform to ending the war in Iraq.

Congress wants to support the opposition, and the link is inevitable

VOA, 12/14/2011, Voice of America, "US Congressional Panel Seeks to Aid Syrian Opposition," http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/US-Congressional-Panel-Looks-for-Ways-to-Help-Syrian-Opposition-135604588.html

A congressional subcommittee panel on … who have served themselves at Syria’s expense,” added Hof.

Aid now and Congressional support for stronger action on Syria

Josh Rogin, Foreign Policy, 12/28/2011, "Obama administration secretly preparing options for aiding the Syrian opposition," thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/28/obama_administration_secretly_preparing_options_for_aiding_the_syrian_opposition

As the violence in Syria spirals out of control, … complex dynamics before getting more involved.

China Relations 2AC

Korea, Iran, economy and election tank relations

Linfei 12/13 (Zhi Linfei and Ran Wei, Xinhua, “Yearender: China-U.S. relations witness gains, obstacles in 2011”, 12/13/2011, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2011-12/13/c_131304574.htm)

U.S. experts predict a bumpy road ahead for China… perception of China's "threat."

Syria not key to relations

Juul & Hachigian 11 (questions asked by Eddie Walsh, writer for The Diplomat; answered by Nina Hachigian and Peter Juul of the Center for American Progress, 8-29-11, “China in Syria Series (III)” http://the-diplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2011/08/29/china-in-syria-series-iii/)

Insiders suggest that while Syria was on the … protesters.  Some 1,600 Syrians have now been killed.

Relations low over Syria now – China blocking UN vote

WSJ 11 (Joe Lauria, Wall Street Journal, 10-5-11, “Russia, China veto U.N.’s Syria move,” http://uschina.usc.edu/w_usct/showarticle.aspx?articleID=17481&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1)

Despite the “watering down” of a U.N. Security … importance on non-intervention in other countries’ internal affairs.

Multiple alt causes to relations

Areshev 11 (Andrey Areshev, strategic affairs journalist, 8-26-11, “Tibet: stumbling block in U.S.-China relations,” http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2011/08/26/tibet-stumbling-block-in-us-china-relations.html)

Tensions between Washington and Beijing are becoming … Soviet Union and now discussed in relation to China speak for themselves.

Credibility

US look weak on Syria now – that destroys credibility in the region

Drezner 2-9 (Daniel W. Drezner is professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, 2-9-12, “it’s time to arm the Syrian opposition,” http://www.tnr.com/article/world/100565/syria-symposium-assad-arab-league-intervention)

For the Obama administration, negotiating with Assad or … a regime as entrenched and ruthless as Assad’s.

That inaction destroys US leadership

Gordon 11 (J.D. Gordon, communications consultant to several Washington-D.C. think tanks and a retired Navy Commander who served as a Pentagon spokesman in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2005-2009, 9-20-11, “Libya, Syria show Obama in way over his head,” http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/08/20/libya-syria-show-obama-in-way-over-his-head/#ixzz1Vgk2QcQB)

Developments this week with Libya and Syria show that President Barack … and encourages rogue regimes to build up their own military arsenals.

US action in Syria demonstrates leadership & commitment

Pletka 11-18 (Danielle Pletka is vice president of foreign and defense policy studies at AEI, “US needs to lead from the front on Syria,” http://www.aei.org/article/debate-prep-us-needs-to-lead-from-the-front-on-syria/)

Consider the stakes: Syria is Iran's most important ally. … America was all but absent.

Syria is the key test of credibility

Miller 1-12 (Judith Miller, Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, 1-12-12, “How many have to die?” The Daily http://www.thedaily.com/page/2012/01/12/011212-opinions-column-syria-miller-1-3/)

How many people must die in a civil conflict before … before Gadhafi did, he added, “we would be in Damascus by now instead of Tripoli.”

Lack of US leadership in Syria emboldens adversaries

Lee Smith, senior editory at The Weekly Standard, 12/21/2011, "Weekly Standard: Hurry Assad Along," www.npr.org/2011/12/21/144063112/weekly-standard-hurry-assad-along

Last week the Obama administration's point man on Syria, Frederic Hof, went to Capitol … therefore susceptible to subterfuge in myriad regional contexts.

Syria is pivotal to the regional balance of power

Ghitis 11 (Frida Ghitis, World Politics Review contributing editor, world affairs columnist, author and consultant, her work has appeared in the Washington Post, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer, August 11, 2011, “World Citizen: Mideast Powers Jockey for Leadership Amid Syrian Turmoil,” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9748/world-citizen-mideast-powers-jockey-for-leadership-amid-syrian-turmoil)

Of all the uprisings underway in the Middle East, none has … and helping Iran project power beyond its borders.

Strong US counterbalances Iran

Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf

America’s interest in preventing Iran from acquiring … in the Arab world and Iran, and demonstrate that commitment in practice.

Iranian ascent in a power vacuum causes nuclear war

London 10 (Herbert London, president emeritus of the Hudson Institute, former John M. Olin Professor of Humanities at New York University, June 28, 2010, “The coming crisis in the Middle East,” http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east)

The coming storm in the Middle East is gaining momentum; like … war in which there aren't victors, only devastation? Moreover, should war break out, what does the U.S. do?

Only an active, US-led policy solves

Satloff 11 (Dr. Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 6-23-11, “Iran and Syria: Next Steps,” testimony for the House, http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/sat062311.pdf)

At the same time, however, U.S. efforts to hasten change in Syria … behind” on an issue of such strategic   importance as Syria is not leading at all.  

Stability

Protracted civil war is inevitable now

LA Times 2/5/12 (“Hillary Clinton warns of 'brutal civil war' in Syria,” http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/middleeast/la-fg-syria-violence-20120206,0,1630335.story)

There was general agreement on one point: The conflict in Syria could drag on … would have ceded power. The resolution explicitly ruled out military intervention, so it was never clear how Assad could have been forced to comply.

Assad collapse is inevitable – it could either devolve into violence or create a stable regime

James H. Anderson is a professor at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies. He previously served as director of Middle East policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2006 to 2009, December 2011, "After the Fall: What’s Next for Assad and Syria?" www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/after-fall-what’s-next-assad-and-syria

Getting a clear read on developments in Syria can be challenging, … internal opposition and external pressures hasten its inglorious end.

Syrian violence escalates to proxy conflict

Andrew Quinn, US foreign policy correspondent at Reuters, 2/7/2012, "Syria raises specter of proxy conflict for U.S., Russia," www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-syria-usa-proxytre8162fh-20120207,0,3242270,full.story

As the Obama administration weighs worst-case scenarios for Syria, … from Russia. Everyone will start to operate in this environment."

Syria is uniquely likely to escalate

Friedman 11-26 (Thomas Friedman, three-time Pulitzer Prize winner, current member of the Pulitzer Prize Committee, NYT foreign-affairs Op-Ed columnist, former chief economic correspondent in the Washington bureau & chief White House correspondent, 11-26-11, “in the Arab world, it’s the past versus the future,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/27/opinion/sunday/Friedman-in-the-arab-world-its-the-past-vs-the-future.html)

But I am deeply worried that the longer the fighting … between “The Lexus and the Olive Tree.”

Arab Spring means risk of war high

Singh 11 (Michael Singh, managing director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, formerly served on the National Security Council as senior director for Middle East affairs, October 24, 2011, “Arab Spring, Arab Storm: Implications for Israel,” http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3413)

On a more fundamental level, however, the Arab Spring has … question mark, with several states competing for primacy.

Middle East war escalates

James A. Russell. Associate Professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at Naval Postgraduate School. Master’s in Public and International Affairs from the University of Pittsburgh and a Ph.D. in War Studies from the University of London, 2009 “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East”. Spring 2009.Proliferation Papers.Security Studies Center.

Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined by various factors: (1) … disaster for the peoples of the region, with substantial risk for the entire world.

Slow collapse causes Assad lashout against Israel – provokes nuclear and chemical war

Ceren 11 (Omri Ceren, founder and editor of Mere Rhetoric, a political blog dealing with the geopolitical, cultural, and economic dimensions of the global war between the West and political Islam. He's been published in international outlets such as the Jerusalem Post, and his investigative journalism has been cited by the Associated Press, Reuters, CNN, the BBC, the New York Times, and other outlets. He is a Ph.D. candidate studying rhetoric, argumentation, and media at the University of Southern California's Annenberg School of Communication, 8-1-11, “Just how bad could a Syrian collapse get?” http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/08/01/syrian-collapse-israel/)

But the continued stability of the Syrian regime is only one … and surreal situation that will not cause Israeli politicians to overreact less.

Action now prevents Al Qaeda from establishing a foothold in Syria 

Fahad Nazer is a terrorism analyst, Yale Center for the Study of Globalisation, 1/28/2012, "No Appetite for Intervention," www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/opinion/2012/January/opinion_January107.xml&section=opinion&col=

Unless the international community takes a more proactive … at a time when the terrorist group is desperate to regain its footing.

Al Qaeda is actively pursuing a nuclear weapon

Bunn et al. 2011 (May 2011.  Matthew Bunn, associate professor, at Harvard Kennedy School and Co- Principal Investigator of Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Colonel Yuri Morozov, prof @ Russian Academy of Military Sciences former chief of General Staff of the Russian military; Rolf Mowatt-Larssen. Senior fellow at Belfer Center, fmr. director of Intelligence at DoE; Simon Saradzhyan, senior fellow at Belfer Center; William Tobey, senior fellow at Belfer Center & director of the U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism, fmr. deputy administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the NNSA; Colonel General Viktor I. Yesin, senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and advisor to commander of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, fmr. chief of staff of the Strategic Missile Forces; Major General Pavel S. Zolotarev, deputy director of the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and fmr. head of the Information and Analysis Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense.  “The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism.”  The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies.)

Nuclear terrorism is a real and urgent threat. Urgent actions are required to … intention to acquire and use nuclear weapons is as strong as ever.

Terrorist attack leads to nuclear war with Russia and China

Ayson 10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand @ The Victoria University of Wellington, July 2010, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Vol. 33 Issue 7)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear attack and a … Washington that the latter found itself unable or unwilling to provide.

Fast collapse solves devolution into violence

Tabler 11 (Andrew J. Tabler is a Next Generation fellow in the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant.  November 9, 2011, testimony for US Senate hearing on “U.S. Policy in Syria,” http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/html/pdf/TablerSenate20111109.pdf)

Increasing numbers in the Syrian opposition are seeking to take matters into … is likely to become and spread to neighboring countries.

US-led coalitions pressure Assad into stepping aside peacefully 

Young 11 (Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star newspaper in Beirut and author of “The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon’s Life Struggle” (Simon & Schuster), listed as one of the 10 notable books of 2010 by The Wall Street Journal.  8-1-2011, “Escalating Violence in Syria Paralyzes the West,” http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/08/01/washington-avoids-syrian-crackdown-in-hama.html)

The administration has claimed that its leverage over Syria is limited. However, the U… the far larger community of nations.

The United States federal government should lead a dialogue on democratic reform in Syria.

Solvency

US-led dialogue contains Syrian violence & solves Assad lashout – all parties would come to a peaceful agreement

Noe 2-6 (Nicholas Noe, researcher with the Century Foundation, contributing writer for Bloomberg View, editor of “Voice of Hezbollah: The Statements of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,” editor-in-chief of the Beirut-based news translations service Mideastwire.com, 2-6-12 “In Syria, we need to bargain with the devil,” http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/07/opinion/in-syria-we-need-to-bargain-with-the-devil.html?_r=2)

Unfortunately, there are at least three problems that … strategy of pre-emptive concessions through to a successful conclusion.

Assad would say yes – he knows the alternative is military intervention

Democracy Digest 2-7 (2-7-12, “Russia-sponsored ‘dialog’ is not an option, says Syria’s opposition,” http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2012/02/russia-sponsored-dialog-not-an-option-says-syrias-opposition/)

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, … be bracing for external military measures,” Lukyanov said.

The opposition within Syria would accept a peaceful political solution

Narwani 2-7 (Sharmine Narwani, a writer and political analyst covering the Middle East, is a senior associate at St. Antony's College, Oxford University, 2-7-12, “Syria is not Tunisia or Libya,” http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/02/06/is-assads-time-running-out/syria-is-not-tunisia-or-libya) 

The view from inside Syria, meanwhile, varies starkly from … but for the ability to walk to the market and buy it.

Aid coming now – causes controversy

Rogers 2-11 (David Rogers, has reported on Congress for 30 years, Politico, 2-11-12, “Obama gambles on costly initiatives in new budget,” http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/72759.html

From community colleges at home to the “Arab Spring” in … source of funds for congressional big spenders.”