2APlan

Text: The United States Special Operations Command should substantially increase its support for the democratic governance of the governorates of Yemen.

1AC – Inherency

The United States has committed to an increase in assistance to Yemen but it won’t be implemented because of deteriorating security condition

GAO 2-29 (Government Accountability OFfice, "Uncertain Political and Security Situation Challenges US Efforts to Implement a Comprehensive Strategy in Yemen," www.gao.gov/assets/590/588955.pdf)

Mitigate economic crisis and governance … in support of U.S. policy goals.

Debates over assistance now that will involve Obama and the Congress

USA Today 3-10 ("US preparing to restart military aid to Yemen," www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-03-10/us-yemen-aid/53452878/1)

WASHINGTON (AP) – The Pentagon is planning … to a newly released government report.

1AC – AQAP

AQAP is a terrorist threat and our counterterror efforts have failed to take out their leadership

Zimmerman 2-17 (Katherine, "Recipe for Failure: American Strategy Toward Yemen and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula," American Enterprise Institute Critical Threats,www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/zimmerman-recipe-for-failure-american-strategy-february-17-2012)

The threat to Americans from … an expanded sanctuary in Yemen.

The leadership is alive and will orchestrate an attack on the United States by the elections

Benson 1-30 (Pam, "Al Qaeda benefits from Yemen Turmoil," CNN, security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/30/aqap-benefits-from-turmoil-in-yemen/)

When President Barack Obama told … just a couple of years ago.

Decapitating the local leadership … is key to prevent attacks

Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)

Defensive measures must complement the … eventual defeat of the group.

Expanding governance assistance is key … to successful  counter-terrorism operations

Zimmerman 2-17 (Katherine, "Recipe for Failure: American Strategy Toward Yemen and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula," American Enterprise Institute Critical Threats,www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/zimmerman-recipe-for-failure-american-strategy-february-17-2012)

American strategy in Yemen has … options for dealing with … AQAP.

Governance assistance is key

Green 11 (Daniel, Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute, "The al-Qaeda Crescent in Yemen," The Washington Institute, June 22, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3374)

Much like AQAP, the U.S. approach … planning on the United States.

Special forces create local partnership that makes our engagement strategy successful

Lightsey 10 (Ross, Major Assigned to … a strategic foothold in any country.

Yemen is the key linchpin of global Al Qaeda– they’re key to funding, recruiting, training, deployment, and are the refuge of last resort

Scheuer 8 [Michael Scheuer, former CIA intelligence officer, American blogger, historian, foreign policy critic, and political analyst, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Center for Peace and Security Studies, “Yemen’s Role in al-Qaeda’s Strategy”, Jamestown Foundation, Terrorism Focus Volume: 5 Issue: 5, February 7, 2008, http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=4708&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=246&no_cache=1]

  Abundant Manpower But affection … greatly affected by religious discourse”

AQAP is gearing up for major attacks in India – they’ll be successful

Roychowdhury11.(General, Shankar Roychowdhury is a former Chief of Army Staff and a former member of Parliament, “India needs a 360° terror appraisal”, September 6,, Deccan Chronicle, http://www.deccanchronicle.com/editorial/dc-comment/india-needs-360%C2%B0-terror-appraisal-659)

In this context, Al Qaeda … and exercise the requisite caution.

India will retaliate by … invading Pakistan – Abbottabad set a precedent

Riedel 11 (Bruce, “New Delhi's Abbottabad Mission”, June 22, 2011, National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/new-delhis-abbottabad-mission-5508)

President Obama was right and … the ground rules on May 2, 2011.

This scenario ensures escalation to nuclear war

Zarate 11 (Juan,  “An alarming South Asia powder keg”, Washington Post, February 18,  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/18/AR2011021805662.html)

In 1914, a terrorist assassinated Archduke Franz … threat we face from terrorism.

India Pakistan nuclear escalation is the most probable – next few years are key to prevent failure of deterrence

Ricks 11 (Thomas, Senior fellow, Center for a New American Security, a bipartisan think tank that studies national security issues * Contributing editor, Foreign Policy magazine * Special military correspondent, the Washington Post * Author, Fiasco and The Gamble, about Iraq Graduated from Yale in 1977.  The most likely apocalypse in our future: An Indian-Pakistani nuclear exchange)

The point that all three … time.  This is a global problem.

Best new studies prove this would cause extinction

Starr 11 (Steven, Consequences of a Single Failure of Nuclear Deterrence by Steven Starr February 07, 2011      * Associate member of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation     * Senior Scientist for PSR)

Only a single failure of nuclear … deployed U.S. and Russian nuclear forces.

***This scenario is the … escalation – US diplomacy wouldn’t solve

Yusuf 11 (Moeed Yusuf is South Asia adviser at the U.S. Institute of Peace, where he manages the institute’s Pakistan program. Previously, he was a research fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government and a fellow at the Frederick S. Pardee Center at Boston University, “Banking on an Outsider: Implications for Escalation Control in South Asia”, June 2011, Arms Control Association, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2011_06/Yusuf)

The potential for confrontation between … the worst from the other.[22]

1AC - ***

Obama is locked into counter-terrorism policies with an emphasis on military force as opposed to institution building

Lake and Barry 9/30 (Eli Lake is the senior national-security correspondent for Newsweek and the Daily Beast. He previously covered national security and intelligence for the Washington Times. Lake has also been a contributing editor at The New Republic since 2008 and covered diplomacy, intelligence, and the military for the late New York Sun. He has lived in Cairo, Egypt, and traveled to war zones in Sudan, Iraq, and Gaza. He is one of the few journalists to report from all three members of President Bush's axis of evil: Iraq, Iran, and North Korea. John Barry joined Newsweek's Washington bureau as national-security correspondent in 1985. He has reported extensively on American intervention in Afghanistan, Kosovo, Haiti, Bosnia, Iraq, and Somalia and on efforts for peace in the Middle East. In 2002 he co-wrote The War Crimes of Afghanistan, which won a National Headliner Award. He won the 1993 Investigative Reporters & Editors Gold Medal for his investigation of the shooting down of an Iranian airliner by the USS Vincennes, as well as a 1983 British Press Award—the British equivalent of a Pulitzer—for his reconstruction of the U.S.-Soviet negotiations to ban intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe, “Obama’s Anti-Terror Doctrine”, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/09/30/anwar-al-awlaki-killing-shines-light-on-obama-s-anti-terror-doctrine.html, September 30, 2011)

The killing of Anwar al-Awlaki … the return of al Qaeda.”

Yemen has become the forefront of US counter-terror policy – Changing policy to a ‘whole government’ approach is key

Porges ’10 (Marisa L. Porges, Policy advisor to US Treasury and DOD, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67008/marisa-l-porges/saving-yemen?page=show#, “In Yemen, where political and tribal authorities compete, interest groups -- including al Qaeda’s regional offshoot, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula -- have begun to fill the voids”, November 16, 2010)

Yemen rose to the forefront … Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

Yemen is perceived as the SPOTLIGHT of global terrorism- US MUST engage in a whole government approach

Hill ’10 (Ginny Hill, Ginny Hill is an associate fellow at Chatham House in London, where she runs the Yemen Forum, http://www.ginnyhill.co.uk/?p=436, “Yemen: Test for the West”, February 2010)

The botched plot to bomb … Yemen and the international donors.

The international community views our policy in Yemen as military tunnel vision – an unconditional increase in assistance is key to reverse perceptions

Bodine 11 (Barbara K. Bodine, Ambassador (Ret.) Barbara K. Bodine is Lecturer and Diplomat-in-Residence at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. She was U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Yemen from 1997 through 2001, “Yemen: Primer and Prescriptions”, http://www.ndu.edu/press/yemen.html, September 6, 2011)

To focus disproportionately on immediate … building a military and police capability.

Unconditional, sustained governance assistance is key – solves anti-Americanism and AQAP co-operation

Bodine 10 (Barbara, Lecturer and Diplomat-in-Residence at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, "Yemen: Primer and Prescriptions," Prism, National Defense University Press, June, http://www.ndu.edu/press/yemen.html)

Yemen is not a failed state. … the national and local levels.

Increased Special Forces support for the USAID mission is key

Bodine 11 (Barbara K. Bodine, Ambassador (Ret.) Barbara K. Bodine is Lecturer and Diplomat-in-Residence at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. She was U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Yemen from 1997 through 2001, “Yemen: Primer and Prescriptions”, http://www.ndu.edu/press/yemen.html, September 6, 2011)

The 2010–2012 USAID Country Strategy recognizes … relations and programs with Yemen.

Balancing military action in Yemen with democracy assistance is key to reorient our war on terror strategies

Berger 10 (Collin, "America's Land of Opportunity: Supporting Yemen's Fight Against Terrorism," American Foreign Policy, Princeton Student Editorials on Global Politics, December 1, afpprinceton.com/2010/12/america’s-land-of-opportunity-supporting-yemen’s-fight-against-terrorism/)

Even in its tenth year, … in the War on Terror.

Hegemony will collapse absent a shift away from a unilateral, aggression based counter-terrorism

Fakiolas and Fakiolas 7 (Efstathios T - PhD from the Department of War Studies, King's College London, and is currently working as a strategy and southeastern European affairs analyst at ATEbank, Tassos E - PhD from IMEMO, Moscow, Russian Academy of Sciences and is a special adviser on Russian and east European affairs for a Greek business firm, "Pax Americana or Multilateralism? Reflecting on the United States' Grand Strategic Vision of Hegemony in the Wake of the 11 September Attacks," Muse)

After the 9/11 bombings, the Bush … great power, is another story.

Perception matters- the international communities’ perception of an aggression-only strategy causes counter-balancing

Boyle and Scmid ‘9 (A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime Dr. Michael J. Boyle and Professor Alex P. Schmid Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the The New Ideas Fund, 2009

The war on terror has … it would have otherwise been.

Hegemony decline causes every impact – no other power could fill in fast enough

Brzezinski 12 (Zbigniew, Professor of Foreign Policy at Johns Hopkins, "After America," Foreign Policy, January/February, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/03/after_america?page=full)

For if America falters, the … there would normally be conflict.

American power solves your impacts – decline turns it

Kagan 1-17 (Robert, Senior Fellow of Foreign Policy at the Center on the United States and Europe, "Not Fade Away: Against the Myth of American Decline," The Brookings Institution, www.brookings.edu/opinions/2012/0117_us_power_kagan.aspx?rssid=LatestFromBrookings&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BrookingsRSS%2Ftopfeeds%2FLatestFromBrookings+%28Brookings%3A+Latest+From+Brookings%29)

Is the United States in … —reflects American principles and preferences

, and was built and … leadership and constant American commitment.

Al-Qaeda will successfully attack … across the globe – causes meltdowns

Kimery 11 – Homeland Security Today's senior reporter and online editor (Anthony, W. Scott Malone, multiple Emmy and Peabody award-winning investigative journalist and former senior editor of NavySEALs.com. He runs the website's counterterrorism newsletter spin-off, “BlackNET Intelligence Channel,” 05/12, “Al Qaeda Could Try to Replicate Fukushima-type Meltdowns,” http://www.hstoday.us/blogs/the-kimery-report/blog/al-qaeda-could-try-to-replicate-fukushima-type-meltdowns/aa96292934d83bb8c9f97fd9d685f32b.html)

A May 5 "intelligence brief" prepared … failure within a matter of hours …”

Meltdowns cause extinction

Lendman 11 – Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (Stephen, 03/ 13, “Nuclear Meltdown in Japan,” http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2011/03/13/nuclear-meltdown-in-japan)

Reuters said the 1995 Kobe quake …

could be, literally,

an apocalyptic event.

USAID/State categories don’t apply to the whole government

Carothers, 9

[Thomas, VICE PRESIDENT FOR STUDIES, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT, “ CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE REVITALIZING U.S. DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE: THE CHALLENGE OF USAID,” THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2009 12:15 P.M. WASHINGTON, D.C. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/1029carnegie-carothers_final.pdf]

Now, just as there are … Millennium Challenge Corporation and others.

We meet – governance – it affects direct political variables

USAID 6 ("User's Guide to DG Programming," June, www.usaid.gov/our_work/democracy_and_governance/publications/pdfs/ug.pdf)

Many citizens of developing countries … ta tion, and legislative strengthening.

Counter-interpretation democracy assistance is four categories

GAO 3 (Government Accountability Office, GAO-03-358 Democracy Assistance  http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d03358.pdf)

Democracy assistance has four major … , as do several bilateral donors

The aff is predictable – governance is the majority of democracy assistance

GAO 9 (Government Accountability Office, “DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE U.S. Agencies Take Steps to Coordinate International Programs but Lack Information on Some U.S.-funded Activities,” September, http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB950.pdf)

Although State/F information systems enable … each country’s Freedom House rating.)

Aff flexibility outweighs limits – democracy assistance is a weak mechanism, there’s no literature about it and an overwhelming propensity for negative generics

McFaul 7 (Michael, Professor at Stanford, “Democracy Promotion: Cornerstone of U.S. Foreign Policy,” Quoted in Congressional Research Service Report to Congress, December 26, www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34296.pdf)

Measuring the effects of democracy … democracy promotion do not exist. 6

Their Interpretation doesn’t solve limits

Carothers 11 (Thomas, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 12, http://nudebate.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2011-01-01T00%3A00%3A00-06%3A00&updated-max=2012-01-01T00%3A00%3A00-06%3A00&max-results=4)

There really is not a formal … the sake of building democracy.

Their limits are arbitrarily – short-circuits their limits key to clash arguments

Burnell 11 (Peter, September 12,  nudebate.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2011-01-01T00%3A00%3A00-06%3A00&updated-max=2012-01-01T00%3A00%3A00-06%3A00&max-results=4)

You are right. There are … or national commercial gain; etc)..

1AR

Our ev is from the … comprehensive study of USFG policy

GAO, US Government Accountability Office, ‘9

(September, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09993.pdf)

Why GAO Did This Study

In fiscal years 2006- 2008, the U.S. Agency … specific democracy projects in 10 countries.

The government only sets broad … the plan, not the mandate

Phillips, project director – National Committee on American Foreign Policy, visiting scholar – Columbia University, ‘8

(David L, “Enhancing Democracy Assistance,” The Atlantic Council, http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf)

In 2007, the US Government (USG) … for sharing information and collaboration.

The aff is predictable – governance is the majority of democracy assistance

GAO 9 (Government Accountability Office, “DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE U.S. Agencies Take Steps to Coordinate International Programs but Lack Information on Some U.S.-funded Activities,” September, http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB950.pdf)

Although State/F information systems enable … each country’s Freedom House rating.) 

Relations are already low over Syria

Cohen 2-6 (Ariel, Ph.D., is a senior research fellow in Russian and Eurasian studies and international energy policy in the Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation., "The Syrian Wedge Between the US and Russia," The Atlantic,  www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/02/the-syrian-wedge-between-the-us-and-russia/252635/)

In another blow to President … the two countries is Syria.

The plan—not bipart—determines case solvency

Gelb 10/25

Leslie H. Gelb, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, a former senior official in the State and Defense Departments,10/25/11, We Bow to the God Bipartisanship, nationalinterest.org/print/article/we-bow-the-god-bipartisanship-6048

Contrary to Gates’s Holy Grail … is good politics as well.

No impact to relations and they fail inevitably

Fly, Foreign Policy initiative executive director, 10-10-11

(Jamie, “Time to Abandon ‘Reset’?”, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/279602/time-abandon-reset-jamie-m-fly, DOA: 10-21-11)

Putin’s return should serve as a … the next president of Russia.

Relations are resilient – common interests check disagreements

Schwenninger, 8

Sherle R. Schwenninger, New America Foundation, The Nation, 10-6-2008, “Ten National Security Myths”

First, Russia’s foreign policy has … it clear that this partnership

2AC – JV – DA

No push until next summer

National Interest 2-23-12 (More than Georgia on Obama's Mind. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/georgia-obamas-mind-6557)

For the White House, this … its archenemy Georgia as well.

Baucus is key – not Obama

Rogin 3-15 (Josh, "Kyl vs. Russia: Round 2," Foreign Policy, thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/03/15/kyl_vs_russia_round_2)

Committee chairman Max Baucus (R-MT), who … Senate to repeal the law.

Won’t pass, PC fails, and its not coming up until the summer

Eremenko 3-28 ("Alexey, "Anti-Russian Amendment Now Headache for US," Ria Novosti, en.ria.ru/analysis/20120328/172439008.html)

Economic sanctions against Russia imposed … John Kerry said on Tuesday.

McCain likes the plan

Al-Azaki 10 (Mohammed, "Closely Observing Country's Situation, US Administration to Give Hand to Yemen," YemenPost, April 10, http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=1177&MainCat=6)

A US Congress delegation chaired … whole region’s security and stability.

Compromise gets McCain on board – he’s key to GOP swing votes

WSJ 3-18-12 (After Jackson-Vanik. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304459804577285330434798916.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)

For two years, the White House has scuttled the Magnitsky bill. Senate Foreign Relations Chairman John Kerry, who dreams of the top job at Foggy Bottom in a second Obama term, refuses to hold hearings. Mike McFaul, the new ambassador to Russia, last week called it "redundant" because the State Department put some Russian officials on a visa black list last year. He didn't mention that it only did so in response to Senate pressure and in an effort to pre-empt Senate action. Nor did he say that, unlike the Magnitsky bill, State didn't publicly name names or ban them from using the U.S.banking system.

This position is no longer politically tenable. The Senate looks unlikely to retire Jackson-Vanik without adopting the Magnitsky bill. On Friday, Senator Cardin, Republicans John McCain and Roger Wicker and independent Joe Lieberman made this quid pro quo explicit.

Mr. Cardin's participation is noteworthy … still lacks votes to repeal.

2AC – Thumpers

Aid now – that’s 1AC GAO and Coker evidence – new allocations for military funding and civil society – more evidence

Bloomberg News 3-7 ("Syria opposition to receive direct US aid," San Francisco Chronicle, www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/03/06/MNBT1NGOI2.DTL)

The Obama administration is moving … representation of the Syrian opposition.

Other things thump the DA:

 - Oil subsidies are Obama’s top priority and guarantee controversy

Lisabeth 3-29-2012 (Zach, “President Obama Challenges Congress to End Oil Subsidies”, http://www.opposingviews.com/i/politics/2012-election/president-obama-challenges-congress-end-oil-subsidies)

With gas prices averaging over $3.50 … issue from the bully pulpit.

 - Jobs Act is about to pass

HedgeCo.Net 3-29-2012 (“New Congress Act allows Hedge Funds to advertise freely”, http://www.hedgeco.net/news/03/2012/new-congress-act-allows-hedge-funds-to-advertise-freely.html)

A new act passed by … and advertising by hedge funds.

- Triggers EVERY internal link – … , bipartisanship, economy and winners win

Mascaro 3-22-2012 (Lisa, “JOBS bill clears Congress despite warnings”, http://www.fox43.com/news/nationworld/la-pn-jobs-bill-clears-congress-despite-warnings-20120327,0,226229.story)

Congress gave final approval to a … an economic address last fall.

2AC – Political Capital

PC fails

Klein 3/15 (Ezra Klein, March 15, 2012, “The Unpersuaded”, Who listens to a President?, The Political Scene, Columnist for the New Yorker, Washington Post, Bloomberg, Referencing Richard Neustadt, Founder of Harvards Kennedy School of Government)

This, Edwards says, is the … can’t solve that with a speech.

2AC – Winters Win (SHORT)

Foreign policy wins spill over

Marshall and Prins 11 (BRYAN W, Miami University and BRANDON C, University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”, Sept, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3)

Presidents rely heavily on Congress … political capital at home (Fordham 2002).

2AC – No Link – Special Forces

Comes from insulated budget – no tradeoffs

USSOC Posture Statement 2006.

http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:od9IB9oxw1IJ:www.comw.org/qdr/fulltext/06SOFPosture.pdf+USSOCOM+separate+budget&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESi_h3yOd9igJsFQApCbMAjydNtpPfvfEq2vPQvtgKn2qOApqJKWFywA-6_Y6yipcyfHussFVC7VyYFSF-0zIBvVOvjn3VR289qJxj9ce21qoWzfxcp9jEbJft_tLIbQS0Gc-76D&sig=AHIEtbSEW3E_xJ9mHx_lJSHCsK7_5yl34A

(UDA) process provides rapid … - mizing impact on future systems.

Its an internal military decision

Wright 11 (Matthew, "Taking Down Al-Qaeda's Network Post 9/11," Countering Al-Qaeda's Ideology: Re-Assessing US Policy Ten Years After 9/11," Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies Task Force Rhttps://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/bitstream/handle/1773/16495/Task%20Force%20O%202011.pdf?sequence=1)

The United States Special Operations … continue to welcome widespread praise.

There is no chance Congress would get a sniff of the plan – the plan is too sensitive to risk leaks

Salla 4 (Michael. held academic appointments in the School of International Service, American University, Washington DC (1996-2001), and the Department of Political Science, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia (1994-96). Center for Global Peace/School of International Service American University. http://www1.american.edu/salla/Articles/BB-CIA.htm

The ‘black budget’ allows intelligence … , covert operations and weapons research.  

AT: Prolif

No Saudi prolif – decades away from even having the capacity

Hoodbhoy, professor of physics at … Jess Hill, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 7/1/2011

[lexis]

Pervez Hoodbhoyis a professor of physics … a capacity to make the bomb.

2AC – Saudi Relations

The plan solves US-Saudi relations – terrorism is the one definitive area of cooperation and it definitely outweighs your link.

Boucek 9/12/11 (Christopher, Associate in the Carnegie Endowment Middle East Program, “Terrorism out of Saudi Arabia,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/09/12/terrorism-out-of-saudi-arabia/53pw#yemen)

Saudi Arabia’s influence and interest … both countries recognize the importance

Their ev is hype

Sobhani, 11

(President of Caspian Energy Consulting & PhD-Georgetown University, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/04/19/what-the-kings-of-saudi-arabia-and-bahrain-are-thinking/)

I think the concern in … to derail the overall relationship.

Saudi Arabia is in favor of transition – perceives the aff as stability

Knickmeyer 11 (Ellen, Former Washington Post Middle East Bureau Chief and Associated Press Africa Bureau Chief, "Trouble Down South," Foreign Policy, July 5, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/07/05/trouble_down_south?page=full)

These days, in a further blurring … bring new elections in Yemen.

Plan increases co-operation with Saudi Arabia over yemen

Boucek 11 (Christopher, "US-Saudi Relations in the Shadow of the Arab Spring," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 21, http://carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=44722&solr_hilite=Yemen#iran)

Very rarely do U.S. officials go … oil market doesn’t get overheated.  

1AR

AT: Impact

Lack of knowledge and technical capacity checks Saudi proliferation

Feldman ’11 [Yana, FirstWatch International, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, accessed 8-23-11, “Saudi Arabia,” http://www.sipri.org/research/disarmament/nuclear/researchissues/past_projects/issues_of_concern/saudi_arabia/saudi_arabia_default]

Open sources suggest that Saudi … , and in the United States.

Proliferation is slow, doesn’t cascade, and doesn’t cause conflict – 60 years of empirics prove

DeGarmo August 2011

[Denise, professor of international relations at Southern Illinois University, “Proliferation Leads to Peace”]

Unfortunately, while the fear of … there is from convention warfare.

Resilience

Greater disagreements didn’t collapse the alliance

Zeigler 11 (Lucien, Research Director at Saudi-U.S. Trade Group,, "Could US-Saudi Relationship Emerge Stronger After 'Arab Spring'?" Informationchaos, March 18, informationchaos.com/2011/03/18/could-us-saudi-relationship-emerge-stronger-after-arab-spring/)

Disagreements, large and small, are … intact for years to come.

Oil and security outweighs mistrust

Mutter 11 (Paul, Assisted by Professor Deepa Kumar of Rutgers University, "The US-Saudi "Special Relationship" and the Arab Spring," The Arabist, June 28, www.arabist.net/blog/2011/6/28/the-us-saudi-special-relationship-and-the-arab-spring.html)

The US has sanctioned this … demonstrators.

… Nothing outweighs security interests

Mutter 11 (Paul, Assisted by Professor Deepa Kumar of Rutgers University, "The US-Saudi "Special Relationship" and the Arab Spring," The Arabist, June 28, www.arabist.net/blog/2011/6/28/the-us-saudi-special-relationship-and-the-arab-spring.html)

So for all the talk … Persian Gulf over the Palestinians.

Thumpers

Overwhelming alt causes haven’t collapsed relations – plan isn’t key

Strobel 11 (Warren, "Arab spring drives wedge between US, Saudi Arabia," McClatchy News, March 24, www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/03/24/111034/arab-spring-drives-wedge-between.html)

The United States and Saudi … steadily expanding its political clout.

born.

Damage is done – Saudi Arabia already feels abandoned

Goodspeed 11 (Peter, Award Winning Reporter for the National Post,  "Goodspeed Analysis: Fearful of upheaval, Saudi Arabia rethinks friendship with the US," National Post, April 15, fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/04/15/goodspeed-analysis-fearful-of-upheaval-saudi-arabia-rethinks-friendship-with-the-u-s/)

But it is Saudi Arabia’s … partners in Europe and Asia.”

Relations are in crisis – basically everything is making the Saudis angry

Henderson 11 (Simon, The Baker fellow and Director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy's Gulf and Energy Policy Program, "Outraged in Riyadh," Foreign Policy, April 14, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/14/outraged_in_riyadh?page=full)

U.S.-Saudi relations are in … also at the Donilon meeting.

 (  )  Unmasking the violence of Middle East representations solves nothing – the public at large doesn’t care and would actually call for more violence based on their K

Elliott Colla, Director of Middle … thoroughly imbricated in such interests.

Focus on epistemology is bad

Owen 2 [David Owen, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton, Millennium Vol 31 No 3 2002 p. 655-7]

Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ … may provide the best account

t available to us. In other … so a potentially vicious circle arises.

Winning their link arguments doesn’t disprove the aff

Tyler Cowen, GMU, December 2006, “The Epistemic Problem Does Not Refute Consequentialism,” Utilitas, 18:4, pq

The epistemic critique relies heavily … upfront benefits of obvious importance.

2AC – Specificity Key

Default to the specificity of our advantages – their links have no basis in reality

Rushworth 12 (Philip, "Orientalism Revisited," Al-Bab, www.al-bab.com/arab/articles/text/orientalism.htm)

As the other half of a … makes it a 'catch all critique' al

lowing Said to 'dispose of … proved so effective for Empire.

2AC – Appeasement DA

Appeasement fails and emboldens terrorists

Epstein 6 (Alex, Junior Fellow at the Ayn Rand Institute, “Muslim Opinion be Damned,” February 6, http://www.aynrand.org/site/News2?page=NewsArticle&id=11771&news_iv_ctrl=1021)

So-called Muslim opinion is … with appeasement, but with destruction.

Terrorism is a function of ideology – root cause strategies fail

Epstein 5 (Alex, Junior Fellow at the Ayn Rand Institute, “Fight the Root of Terrorism with Bombs not Bread,” July 25, http://www.aynrand.org/site/News2?page=NewsArticle&id=11243&news_iv_ctrl=1021)

Terrorism is not caused by … attack terrorism at its root.

Enemies are resolute now – root cause claims aren’t reverse causal

Peters 4 (Ralph Former Military Officer and Author Parameters, Summer)

It is not a matter of … do that is through killing.

2AC – Doesn’t Solve Aff

Won’t have any way to formulate ME policy

Valbjørn 4 [Morten, PhD Poli. Sci. @ Aarhus, “Culture Blind and Culture Blinded: Images of Middle Eastern Conflicts in International Relations,” in Middle East and Palestine: Global Politics and Regional Conflict, p. 67-8]

As mentioned before, the relational … than at offering attractive answers.

Yemenis view our policy as military tunnel vision – the plan is key to increased relation

Bodine 11 (Barbara K. Bodine, Ambassador (Ret.) Barbara K. Bodine is Lecturer and Diplomat-in-Residence at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. She was U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Yemen from 1997 through 2001, “Yemen: Primer and Prescriptions”, http://www.ndu.edu/press/yemen.html, September 6, 2011)

To focus disproportionately

and police capability.

Civilian security restrictions prevent face-to-face interactions with Yemenis

Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)

Though the attacks on tourists

meeting an American.

Unconditional, sustained governance assistance is key – solves anti-Americanism

Bodine 10 (Barbara, Lecturer and Diplomat-in-Residence at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, "Yemen: Primer and Prescriptions," Prism, National Defense University Press, June, http://www.ndu.edu/press/yemen.html)

Yemen is not a failed state

national and local levels.

Increased Special Forces support for the USAID mission is key

Bodine 11 (Barbara K. Bodine, Ambassador (Ret.) Barbara K. Bodine is Lecturer and Diplomat-in-Residence at Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. She was U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Yemen from 1997 through 2001, “Yemen: Primer and Prescriptions”, http://www.ndu.edu/press/yemen.html, September 6, 2011)

The 2010–2012 USAID

programs with Yemen.

The plan is key to demonstrating a new relationship with the Yemeni people – solves anti-Americanism

Green 11 (Daniel, Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, "The American Moment in Yemen," Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/)

It is becoming increasingly clear

within which to launch attacks against the United States.

Relations are key to curbing Iranian influence in Yemen

Phillips 11 (James, enior Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation., "What the President Must Do About Yemen," The Heritage Foundation, March 24, www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/03/what-the-president-must-do-about-yemen)

Engage the opposition. American diplomats

intercept any arms shipments.

Yemen is key to overall Iranian regional power projection

Gnehm 10 (Amb. Edward, Kuwait Professor of Gulf and Arabian Peninsula Affairs at the George Washington University, "A Focus on Yemen," The 2010 Annual Kuwait Chair Lecture, March 4, http://elliott.gwu.edu/news/speeches/gnehm_kuwait_chair_0310_yemen.cfm)

The President of Yemen and other Yemeni

to oppose the Saudis.

Iran influence goes nuclear

Ben-Meir 7 (Alon, Professor of International Relations at the Center for global Affairs at NYU,  "Ending Iran's Defiance," Ynet News, February 7, www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3361650,00.html)

Weak United States triggers nuclear escalation

London 10 (Herbert, President Emeritus of Hudson Institute, “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East”, June 23, http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds

The gathering storm

That is a truly bad sign.

AQAP will launch attacks on India

Roychowdhury 9/6 [Gen. Shankar Roychowdhury is a former Chief of Army Staff and a former member of Parliament, “India needs a 360° terror appraisal”, September 6, 2011, Deccan Chronicle, http://www.deccanchronicle.com/editorial/dc-comment/india-needs-360%C2%B0-terror-appraisal-659]

 In this context, Al Qaeda

and exercise the requisite caution.

That goes nuclear and causes extinction

Juan C. Zarate, Sunday, February 20, 2011, “An alarming South Asia powder keg”, Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/18/AR2011021805662.html

In 1914, a terrorist assassinated

threat we face from terrorism. 

No impact to Russian economy

Blackwill 9 – former associate dean of the Kennedy School of Government and Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Planning (Robert, RAND, “The Geopolitical Consequences of the World Economic Recession—

way by the economic crisis.

Too many barriers to effective intel sharing

Reveron 6 (Derek, Associate Professor at the Naval War College, "Old Allies, New Friends: Intelligence-Sharing in the War on Terror," Volume 50, Issue 3, Summer 2006, Pages 453-468, derekreveron.com/Documents/su04-reveron.pdf)

While sharing has

and technological barriers.

Status quo efforts will fail because they lack sufficient intelligence

Barfi 10 (Barak, Independent Analyst who has worked with ABC News Affiliates in the Middle East, "How attacking AQAP influenced its strategy," NATO Review, www.nato.int/docu/review/2010/Yemen/Yemen_AQAP/EN/)

AQAP’s ability to survive

and reliable local intelligence assets.

JV

2AC – Relations

Relations are already low over Syria

Cohen 2-6 (Ariel, Ph.D., is a senior research fellow in Russian and Eurasian studies and international energy policy in the Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation., "The Syrian Wedge Between the US and Russia," The Atlantic,  www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/02/the-syrian-wedge-between-the-us-and-russia/252635/)

In another blow to President

the two countries is Syria.

No impact to relations and they fail inevitably

Fly, Foreign Policy initiative executive director, 10-10-11

(Jamie, “Time to Abandon ‘Reset’?”, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/279602/time-abandon-reset-jamie-m-fly, DOA: 10-21-11)

Putin’s return should serve

the next president of Russia.

Relations are resilient – common interests check disagreements

Schwenninger, 8

Sherle R. Schwenninger, New America Foundation, The Nation, 10-6-2008, “Ten National Security Myths”

First, Russia’s foreign policy

it clear that this partnership

1AC

Inherency

Aid now – it’s a marked alignment with the Syrian opposition

Bloomberg News 3-7 ("Syria opposition to receive direct US aid," San Francisco Chronicle, www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/03/06/MNBT1NGOI2.DTL)

The Obama administration representation of the Syrian opposition.

We’re going to give democracy assistance and there are debates about it now

Rogin 3-6 (Josh, reports on national security and foreign policy from the Pentagon to the Foggy Bottom, the White House to Embassy Row, for the Cable, "Obama administration moves to aid Syrian opposition," thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/03/06/obama_administration_moves_to_aid_syrian_opposition)

The package of options …Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey.

Assad collapse is inevitable – there’s nothing left he can do

Olmert 3-15 (Dr. Josef, Adjunct Professor at the University of South Calrolina, "Syria, a Year Later," www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-josef-olmert/syria-uprising-anniversary_b_1347437.html)

The Alawite special forces … second anniversary to the uprising...

The situation is terminal – the economy is killing him

Risby 3-14 (Lord, Member of the British Parliament, "Economic collapse will finish the Assad Regime," conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2012/03/lord-risby-economic-collapse-will-finish-the-assad-regime.html)

  For all this confusion, it is clear … the economy, stupid, after all.

1AC – Christians

Christians:

Syrian Christians are on the fence about supporting the opposition – their involvement is key to prevent a sectarian civil war

Jacinto 12-14 (Leela, "In unsettling times, Syria's Christians walk a tightrope," France24 - International News, www.france24.com/en/20111214-syria-christian-assad-security-crackdown-christmas-church-mass-damascus)

“Render unto Caesar the things which are … is strewn with obstacles.

Christian silence on the Assad regime makes them the victim of revenge attacks that lead to civil war – the plan is key to effective mediation

Raad 10-12 (Doreen, Catholic News Servie, “Christians feel endangered if Syria has civil war,” St. Lewis Review,http://stlouisreview.com/article/2011-10-12/christians-feel)

Pressure being put on …egime be overthrown.

Christian support for the opposition prevents sectarianism

Khoury 11-15 (Doreen, program manager at Heinrich Böll Stiftung, Beirut. She formerly worked as senior researcher and elections specialist at the Lebanese Centre for Policy Studies from 2006 till 2008 and served as executive director of LADE from 2004 till 2006. She specializes in elections, governance and anti-corruption issues. She has a B.A. in Political Studies from the American University of Beirut and an M.A. in International Affairs from the Lebanese American University. "Christian minority in Syria: Is it Winter or Spring?" Heinrich Boll Stiftung - The Green Political Foundation, www.boell.de/worldwide/middleeast/middle-east-situation-christians-syria-uprising-13336.html)

Several analysts have … leading role in a future Syria.

Assistance is key to prevent persecution against Christians

Werthmuller 2-3 (Kurt, Research Fellow at the Hudson Institute's Center for Religious Freedom, Ph.D. in Middle Eastern history from the University of California, Santa Barbara (2007), an M.A. in Middle Eastern Studies from Harvard University (2002), and a B.A. in history from Messiah College (1995). "State of Fear: Syria's Christians Face the Specter of Civil War and Sectarian Violence," www.patheos.com/Resources/Additional-Resources/State-of-Fear-Syrias-Christians-Kurt-Werthmuller-12-03-2012?offset=2&max=1)

On a hill above the ancient, well-worn … desperate need of your prayers.

Only US assistance solves

Abrams 11 (Elliot, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Handled Middle East Affairs at the National Security Council, "Preventing Civil War in Syria," August 2, www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/08/02/preventing_civil_war_in_syria_99612-2.html)

As President Assad … era that is coming.

Supporting the non-SNC opposition is key – acts as a counterweight and signals support for democracy in the region

London 11 (Herbert, President Emeritus of Hudson Institute and Professor Emeritus of New York University, "US Betrays Syria's Opposition," August 21,  Hudson Institute, mobile.hudson.org/articles/articledetails.cfm?id=8269)

In an effort to understand and … invariably opposes this political view.

Christian support for the protest is key to prevent mass migration from Syria

Oleszcuk 1-13 (Luiza, Christian Post Reporter, "US, Europe 'Sacrificing' Syrian Christians for Political Gain, Says Church Leader," Christian Post, www.christianpost.com/news/us-europe-sacrificing-syrian-christians-for-political-gain-says-church-leader-67046/)

The church leader appears convinced that… will not work forever.”

Religious persecution causes mass migration from Syria

CFI 11 ("Persucution in Syria: How Do You Want to Die?" Christian Freedom International, www.christianfreedom.org/the-christian-winter/persecution-in-syria/)

As the Arab Spring continues …Iraqi church practically nonexistent.

Syrian refugees will flee to Israel – causes Assad lashout and chemical weapon use

Hamilton 1-10 (Douglas, "Israel prepares for fall of Assad, Syria refugees," Reuters, www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/10/us-israel-golan-syria-idUSTRE8090XV20120110)

(Reuters) - Israel is making … people in the region".

Israeli refugee acceptance causes an Israel-Syria war and conflict with Hammas and Hezbollah

Dabbous 1-15 (Dina, "The Chutzpah of Israel offering its land to Syrian refugees," Albawaba, www.albawaba.com/editorchoice/chutzpah-israel-offering-its-land-syrian-refugees-408875)

Assad has so far kept attention … spokesperson and many have died in service.

Extinction --- and causes bio-war

Beres 11 (Louis Rene, Professor of Political Science and International Law – Purdue University, “Israel, Anarchy, and Global Chaos”, Jerusalem Post, 8-18, http://postonpolitics.blogspot.com/2011/08/israel-anarchy-and-global-chaos.html)

In history, there is a powerful … correspondingly immediate and overwhelming.

Bioweapons cause extinction

Steinbrunner 97 (John, Senior Fellow – Brookings, Foreign Policy, 12-22, Lexis)

Although human pathogens are … necessarily its outer limit.

Hamas will target the Dimona reactor --- causes Samson Option

Ceren 9 (Omri, Ph.D. Candidate in Rhetoric – University of Southern California, “Hamas’s “Big Surprise” – An Attack On Dimona That Will Trigger A Full-Blown Regional War?”, Mere Rhetoric, 1-2, http://www.mererhetoric.com/2009/01/02/hamass-big-surprise-an-attack-on-dimona-that-will-trigger-a-full-blown-regional-war/)

Hamas and their Iranian patrons … as one of their potential endgames.

Global nuclear war

Morgan 9 (Dennis Ray, Professor of Current Affairs – Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, South Korea, “World on Fire: Two Scenarios of the Destruction of Human Civilization and Possible Extinction of the Human Race”, Futures, 41(1), p. 685-686)

In a remarkable website on nuclear war, … possibly on China as well. 11

Israel has enough nukes to cause extinction on their own

Casey 6 (Mingus, "On the History of Nuclear Arms, the Arms Trade, and One Very Small Very Vulnerable Very Beautiful Planet,” Scoop – Independent News, October 9,  www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0610/S00126.htm)

The ecological effects of nuclear … probably die out.

1AC – IRF

Religious freedom

Religious freedom has not been fully integrated into United States policy – the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom has to take the lead

Grieboski 11 (Joseph, Founder and Chairman of the Board of the Institute on Religion and Public Policy, "Congressional Testimony of Joseph Grieboski on Prioritizing Religious Liberty in US Foreign Policy," House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health and Human Rights, June 3, religionandpolicy.org/cms/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=6904)

Unfortunately, the Executive Branch … handled half-heartedly.

Only tangible religion based action solves

Farr 8 (Thomas F., Professor of Religion and International Affairs – Georgetown's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Director – Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, World of Faith and Freedom: Why International Religious Liberty Is Vital to American National Security, p. 17)

Promoting religious freedom … sanctioned or ignored by governments.

Explicitly religiously targeted democracy assistance is key to the credibility of our IRF strategies

Farr 6 (Thomas, former director of the U.S. State Department’s Office of International Religious Freedom, "The Diplomacy of Religious Freedom," First Tings, May www.firstthings.com/article/2008/02/003-the-diplomacy-of-religious-freedom--35)

This is a critical issue for American national security—… broader democracy strategy.

No disads – religious freedom is already codified into US policy – the plan is key to making it effective

Farr 6 (Thomas, former director of the U.S. State Department’s Office of International Religious Freedom, "The Diplomacy of Religious Freedom," First Tings, May www.firstthings.com/article/2008/02/003-the-diplomacy-of-religious-freedom--35)

Overcoming such obstacles and broadening …. realism in foreign affairs.

Democracy assistance programs don’t engage religious actors – the plan provides a strategic vision

Farr 11 (Director of the Religious Freedom Project at the Berkeley Center for Religion, Peace and World Affairs, "Prioritizing Religious Freedom in US Foreign Policy," Testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on AFrica, Global Health, and Human Rights, June 3, foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/far060311.pdf)

Fortunately the amendments in HR 1856 address …democracy in Pakistan and Egypt.

United States action on the Arab Spring is key

Farr 11 (Thomas, Visiting Professor at Georgetown and Senior Fellow at the Berkley Center for Religion, Peace and World Affairs, Served as the first director of the State Department’s Office of International Religious Freedom, “The United States Needs an Ambassador of Religious Freedom Now,” Christianity Today, February 8, http://www.christianitytoday.com/ct/2011/februaryweb-only/ambassadorfreedom.html?start=2)

What many Americans may not know is that … to get the job done.

Religious freedom solves and turns ever conflict scenario

Grieboski 11 (Joseph, Founder and Chairman of the Board of the Institute on Religion and Public Policy, "Congressional Testimony of Joseph Grieboski on Prioritizing Religious Liberty in US Foreign Policy," House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Africa, Global Health and Human Rights, June 3, religionandpolicy.org/cms/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=6904)

Promoting freedom of religion … and Uighur Muslims in Northwest China.   

Lack of religious freedom and weak civil society destabilizes China

Leonard Leo and Don Argue 11, Leonard is the Chairman of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), Don is Vice Chairman of USCIRF, “Confronting China's Failure on Religious Freedom”, January 19, http://www.uscirf.gov/news-room/op-eds/3522-1192011-confronting-chinas-failure-on-religious-freedom-huffington-post.html

Religion, like capitalism, …. no luxury, but a necessity.

China will either reform or collapse – US involvement is key

Thomas F Farr 8, visiting associate professor of religion and international affairs at the

Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. He is a senior fellow at

Georgetown's Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, where he directs the

Religious Freedom Project and the program on Religion and US Foreign Policy. He also directs

the Task Force on International Religious Freedom for the Witherspoon Institute in Princeton,

N.J. He is a member of the Board of Advisors of the John Templeton Foundation, “Bringing Religion into International Religious Freedom Policy”, http://repository.berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/Farr_God-GlobalOrder.pdf

Religion has also had … begin to address this problem.

Collapse causes extinction

Yee, Associate Professor of Government @ Hong Kong Baptist University, and Storey, Asian-Pacific Center for Security Studies, ‘2

(Herbert and Ian, China Threat: Perception, Myths, and Reality, p. 5)

The fourth factor contributing … neighbours and the world.

Stable transition with religious freedom solves lashout

Zhou 10

Zhou, assistant professor of Asian Languages and Cultures at HWS, cited on his faculty bio for Hobart and Willima Smith Colleges

http://www.hws.edu/dailyupdate/NewsDetails.aspx?aid=13056

Jinghao Zhou, assistant professor of Asian Languages and Cultures at HWS, has recently published "China's Peaceful Rise in a Global Context: A Domestic Aspect of China's Road Map to Democratization" (Lexington Books, 2010).

According to Zhou, China's … a democratic harmonious society.

Religious conflict goes global and nuclear – also causes Taiwan war

Farr 8

WORLD OF FAITH AND FREEDOM, P. GOOGLE BOOKS

Thomas F. Farr is Director of the Religious Freedom Project at the Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs and a Visiting Associate Professor of Religion and International Affairs at Georgetown’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. A former American diplomat and leading authority on international religious freedom, Farr has published widely, including "Diplomacy in an Age of Faith" in Foreign Affairs (March/April 2008), and World of Faith and Freedom: Why International Religious Liberty is Vital to American National Security (Oxford University Press, 2008). Farr received his BA in history from Mercer University, and his Ph.D. in modern British and European history from the University of North Carolina.  After a distinguished career in the US Army and the Foreign Service, Farr served as the first director of the State Department's Office of International Religious Freedom from 1999-2003. In that capacity he traveled widely to promote religious liberty, engaging religious communities, government officials, and the victims of religious persecution.  Dr. Farr’s publications include “The Bush Administration and America’s International Religious Freedom Policy,” with William L. Saunders, Jr., in Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy; “International Religious Freedom and American National Security in the 21st Century,” in the Drake Law Review; “Bringing Religion Back into International Religious Freedom Policy,” in Jonathan Chaplin, ed., God and Global Order (Baylor University Press); “Public Diplomacy in an Age of Faith,” with Jennifer Marshall, in Philip Seib, ed., American Public Diplomacy: Reinventing U.S. Foreign Policy (Palgrave Macmillan); and “American Religious Freedom Policy,” in Alfred Stepan, Monica Toft and Timothy Samuel Shah, eds., Religion and International Affairs (Columbia University Press).  Dr. Farr has testified on international religious freedom policy before the US Congress. He has made presentations on religion and foreign policy at a wide variety of government agencies, think tanks and universities, including the Department of State, the Congressional Task Force on Religious Freedom, the Library of Congress, the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, the Woodrow Wilson Center, the Ethics and Public Policy Center, the Heritage Foundation, the Federalist Society, Tufts, Princeton, Georgetown, Drake University Law School, Brigham Young Law School, the Catholic University of America, Wheaton College, and Mount St. Mary’s College. He recently delivered a series of lectures to American diplomats at the Foreign Service Institute.  Farr is a member of the Chicago World Affairs Council Task Force on Religion and US Foreign Policy. He is vice chair of the board of Christian Solidarity Worldwide-USA and a contributing editor to The Review of Faith and International Affairs. He is the recipient of the Jan Karski Wellspring of Freedom Award, presented by the Institute on Religion and Public Policy for contributions to international religious freedom.  Under Farr's leadership, the Religion and US Foreign Policy Program has sponsored a series of major symposia with the support of the Luce/SFS program on Religion and International Relations. These included symposia on “Islam, Constitutions and Durable Democracy: The Cases of Iraq and Afghanistan” and “Religion in Israeli Society, Politics and Foreign Policy.” In 2008, during the tenth anniversary of the 1998 International Religious Freedom Act, Farr organized three symposia on various aspects of international religious freedom policy. Out of these symposia came The Future of U.S. International Religious Freedom Policy: Recommendations for the Obama Administration (co-authored with Dennis R. Hoover) and the Berkley Center’s Report on the Georgetown Symposia on U.S. International Religious Freedom Policy.

The Importance of China to American …

to U.S.-China relations.

Extinction

Glaser, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs – George Washington University, ‘11

(Charles, “Will China’s Rise Lead to War?” Foreign Affairs Vol. 9 Iss. 2, March/April)

THE PROSPECTS for avoiding … poisoning of U.S.-Chinese relations.

No US Russia War

Thomas Graham, senior advisor on Russia in the US National Security Council staff 2002-2007, September 2007, "Russia in Global Affairs” July - September 2007, The Dialectics of Strength and Weakness

An astute historian of Russia, … relations with Russia.

(  )  Even a rapid US-Russia war would end in peace negotiations before nukes were launched – Russian generals concede.

Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems. July 2007 “WILL AMERICA FIGHT RUSSIA”. Defense and Security, No 78. LN 

Ivashov: Numerous scenarios and options are possible. … negotiations into motion.

2AC – Aid Now

Its an increase in funding and we’ve signaled support for the opposition

Al Arabiya News 3-7 ("US considers 'non-lethal' aid to Syrian opposition, says Panetta," english.alarabiya.net/save_pdf.php?cont_id=199241)

United States defense secretary Leon Panetta …, and unfortunately that is not the case now,” McCain said.

Military assistance is going to follow

Glaser 3-6 (John, "Obama Admin. Decides to Aid Syrian Opposition," Antiwar, Non-Interventionist Magazine, Creation of the Randolph Bourne Institute,  news.antiwar.com/2012/03/06/obama-admin-decides-to-aid-syrian-opposition/)

The Obama administration …yet another war of choice by the Obama administration.

2AC – Russia Relations

Relations are already low over Syria

Cohen 2-6 (Ariel, Ph.D., is a senior research fellow in Russian and Eurasian studies and international energy policy in the Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation., "The Syrian Wedge Between the US and Russia," The Atlantic,  www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/02/the-syrian-wedge-between-the-us-and-russia/252635/)

In another blow to President … between the two countries is Syria.

Relations are low over other stuff and there wont be the kind of co-operation

La Franchi 3-2 (Howard, "A cold-war chill? US-Russian relations falter over Libya and Syria," Christian Science Monitor, www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2012/0303/A-cold-war-chill-US-Russia-relations-falter-over-Libya-and-Syria)

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham … explaining many of Russia's ills.

No co-operation

La Franchi 3-2 (Howard, "A cold-war chill? US-Russian relations falter over Libya and Syria," Christian Science Monitor, www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2012/0303/A-cold-war-chill-US-Russia-relations-falter-over-Libya-and-Syria)

The result is that stormy … Syria in recent weeks.

No spillover/internal link

Bhadrakumar 11-3 (MK, former Indian career diplomat who has served in Islamabad, Kabul, Tashkent and Moscow., "Russia surges in the Middle East," Indian Punchline, blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2011/11/03/russia-surges-in-the-middle-east/)

Russia is perturbed …closest traditional ally, the United States.  

Inevitable

Assad has no control – elites will abandon him

Ungar 3-19 (Amiel,  political analyst, 3-19-2012, "Damascus Fighting and Wife’s Emails Dent Myth of Assad Control, http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/153927~~%23.T2e8amtA7Ak

The two major items … human rights violations.

Top general agrees

PTI 3-10 ("Syrian army close to collapse, says defecting top General ," http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report_syrian-army-close-to-collapse-says-defecting-top-general_1660585

The days of Syrian …t into a nuclear reaction.

Even if he’s made recent gains the economy will kill him

Telegraph 3-13 ("Assad's canny game," www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/9140772/Assads-canny-game.html)

As Syria’s bloodshed grows more fearful, … poison of economic collapse.

RUSSIA

AT: Russia War

(  )  Even a rapid US-Russia war would end in peace negotiations before nukes were launched – Russian generals concede.

Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems. July 2007 “WILL AMERICA FIGHT RUSSIA”. Defense and Security, No 78. LN 

Ivashov: Numerous scenarios and options are … negotiations into motion.

1AR – Relations Low

No co-operation

La Franchi 3-2 (Howard, "A cold-war chill? US-Russian relations falter over Libya and Syria," Christian Science Monitor, www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2012/0303/A-cold-war-chill-US-Russia-relations-falter-over-Libya-and-Syria)

The result is that … Syria in recent weeks.

This means theres no intenral link

Kelemen 10-9 (Michele, "US 'Reset' With Russia on Edge After Syria Vote," NPR, www.npr.org/2011/10/09/141187527/u-s-reset-with-russia-on-edge-after-u-n-vote)

U.S. officials shouldn't have been surprised, … don't toward them."

Russia will cave – they don’t want to remain isolated.

Abdul-Hussain 1-11 (Hussain, "Russia has many reasons to defend Syria's regime," The Daily Star, www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2012/Jan-11/159469-russia-has-many-reasons-to-defend-syrias-regime.ashx#axzz1lAWBVaDb)

Should the Arab mission be deemed a failure, world opinion would certainly tilt in favor of U.N. intervention. In that case, Russia would find … would be “guaranteed.”