1NC Topicality
A.] Interpretation –
Democracy assistance must be targeted towards electoral laws, presses and institutions
IFES (International Foundation for Electoral Systems), 2011,
Democracy assistance can be defined as the legal, technical and logistic support provided to electoral laws, processes and institutions.
C. Vote Neg
Limits – Elections directly tie assistance to the core democratic process of contestation – other targets of aid only indirectly improve democracy by changing the political environment – there are thousands of ways to “indirectly promote democracy” by improving governance or helping a civil society group
Thomas Carothers- sr. associate at Carnegie- June 2003, IS GRADUALISM POSSIBLE? Choosing a Strategy for Promoting Democracy in the Middle East,
The second identifiable … accurately.
Trade Off
New democracy assistance funding will trade off with climate assistance—caps mean there will be no new spending
Lefton 9/13(Rebecca, Researcher for Progressive Media at American Progress, 2011, "The Debt Deal and Budget Process Threaten Critical Climate Aid Funding", http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/09/climate_aid.html)jn
The debt ceiling legislation … security and defense.
International climate assistance is critical to stabilize carbon emissions
Lefton and Light 2011(Rebecca, Policy Analyst at the Center for American Progress, and Andrew, Senior Fellow and Coordinator of International Climate Policy at the Center for American Progress, April 7, "The Fight Over International Climate Investments", http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/04/intl_climate_investments.html)jn
At this stage in the … emissions at two degrees.
Global warming leads to extinction
David Stein, Science editor for The Guardian, 7-14-2008, “Global Warming Xtra: Scientists warn about Antarctic melting,” http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/home/Frontpage/2008/07/14/02463.html
Global Warming … world we share.
DA 2
Will pass but intensified partisan bickering can still derail it
Southeast Agnet 9-26-11 (Alabama’s McMillan urges Obama, Congress to make Free Trade Agreements a Reality http://southeastagnet.com/2011/09/26/alabamas-mcmillan-urges-obama-congress-to-make-free-trade-agreements-a-reality/)
Chances for passage …Commerce Department sources.
The plan will be a huge fight for Obama – Congress has shut the door on funding for Arab Spring – even reprogrammed funding is facing stiff resistance
Richter 4-12-11 (Correspondent, LA Times. Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413
Reporting from Washington … has been blocked at almost every turn.
And, political capital is key to the agenda – especially in election season
Terigopula 11 (Rajiv. Writer for the Harvard Political Review. “President Obama’s Political Capital,” http://hpronline.org/hprgument/president-obamas-political-capital/ , 7-6)
Much hullabaloo … 2012 presidential race
Failure to pass SKFTA collapses the alliance
YonHap News Agency 8-30-11 (Severe Damage to Alliance Expected if FTA Fails. http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/08/30/0301000000AEN20110830000200315.HTML)
A collapse in … East Asia," it added.
US-South Korean relations are key to regional stability
Blair and Hanley ’01 (Admiral Dennis C., Commander-in-Chief – US Pacific Command, and Dr. John. T. Strategic Adviser – Asia, Washington Quarterly, Winter, Lexis)
The way ahead in … peaceful development.
Finally, Korean war escalates causing a nuclear winter
Hamel-Green and Hayes, 10 (Michael, Dean and Prof. Faculty of Arts – Victoria U., and Peter, Nautilus Institute, Special Report 100-001, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, 2010, http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf)
The consequences of … international community
Action in Iraq determines US credibility
Korb and Rothman 11 (Lawrence J.- senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and former assistant secretary of defense, Alexander- special assistant at the Center for American Progress, "Reasons to keep our word- US withdrawal from Iraq," NearEastQuarterly, Sep 8, www.neareastquarterly.com/index.php/2011/09/08/reasons-to-keep-our-word-us-withdrawal-from-iraq/?output=pdf
While renegotiating …accordance with the SOFA.
Credibility low- hypocrisy in Syria
Gosztola 11 (Kevin, Aug 8, “US Lacks Credibility to help Syrian Protesters,”
…If the [Syrian … occupied Golan Heights.
2NC – No Escalation
There is no escalation of a regional conflict:
A. US Deterrence Checks
Boroujerdi 7 (Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program at Syracuse University and Fine, A graduate student in International Relations at the Maxwell
School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University, 2007. Syracuse Law Review. IRANIAN NUCLEAR MIASMA).
Because of …. with the United States. n68
B. Ahmadinejad doesn’t have the military power
White 7 (Rebecca, apprentice editor at The National Interest, 12-4, 2007, “Inside Track: Iranian Unknown Unknowns,” http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=16266)
But, as Cordesman noted, …. is on the rise.
C. Israeli Deterrence Checks:
Schelling 7 (Thomas. Awarded the Nobel Prize for economics for 2005. professor emeritus at the University of Maryland -Interview with Nathan Gardels, “IRANIAN USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPON ON ISRAEL WOULD BE 'SUICIDE BOMB'” http://www.digitalnpq.org/articles/nobel/29/10-27-2005/thomas_c._schelling)
GARDELS: Iran …. actual use.
Asian conflict triggers global nuclear war and this is the most likely scenario which means we control probability and magnitude of the impact
Dibb 1 (Paul, Prof – Australian National University, Strategic Trends: Asia at a Crossroads, Naval War College Review, Winter, http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/2001/Winter/art2-w01.htm)
The areas of maximum ….confronted with major crises.
North Korean nuclear use escalates – causes escalating conflict.
Romberg and Swaine, senior associate at the Stimson Center and senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2003 (Alan and Michael, Arms Control Today, May, http://armscontrol.org/act/2003_05/rombergswaine_may03)
Even if it …. be enormous.
Causes superpower conflict.
Stares and Wit, senior fellow for Conflict Prevention at the Council on Foreign Relations and adjunct senior research fellow at the Weatherhead East Asia Institute, Columbia University, 2009 (Paul and Joel, “Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea,” January, available for download at http://www.cfr.org/publication/18019/preparing_for_sudden_change_in_north_korea.html)
These various scenarios ….. and American intervention in the North.
2NC – AT: No War
Brink of Korean war now---fast timeframe and high probability
SHANNON DOYNE 10 and HOLLY EPSTEIN OJALVO NYT Blog Writers, "On the Brink: Teaching About Tension in North and South Korea" Dec 3 learning.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/03/on-the-brink-teaching-about-tension-in-north-and-south-korea/?src=twrhp
On the Brink: Teaching …. uranium enriching program.
Past defense doesn’t apply---risk of war is high---strategic choices like SKFTA are key
Douglas H. Paal 10 is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "The Rise of China and Alliance in East Asia: Implications for Diplomatic Truce" www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=42110#
Fortunately, the issues …. the twenty-first century.
2NC – AT: Not K/ Alliance
SKFTA key to the alliance
Cooper 10 (William, Coordinator Specialist in International Trade and Finance; Mark E. Manyin, Specialist in Asian Affairs; Remy Jurenas, Specialist in Agricultural Policy; Michaela D. Platzer, Specialist in Industrial Organization and Business, “ The Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Provisions and Implications,” November 12, Congressional Research Service)
Although the …. strategic, rather than economic, relations.
2NC – Turns Israel
And, failure destroys overall leadership---collapses relations with all our allies including Israel
Seth Mandel 10 12/29 www.weeklyblitz.net/1192/what-obama-refusal-to-enact-the-colombia-trade
If Obama is unable …. counted on, period.
2NC – Turns Economy
FTA KEY TO THE SOUTH KOREAN ECONOMY
Cutler 6. (Wendy, Assistant U.S. Trade Rep, “United States-South Korean Free Trade Agreement: A Win-Win Proposition, 3-7, http://seoul.usembassy.gov/rok20060307.html)
Korea is also expected …. key Korean export products.
SOUTH KOREAN ECONOMIC DECLINE CAUSES PROLIF AND WAR.
Richardson 6 (Corey, a Washington-based analyst who covered East Asian security issues as a presidential management fellow with the US Department of Defense, and is a co-founder of The Korea Liberator. “South Korea must choose sides” Asia Times, www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/HI09Dg02.html)
A Korea faced …. Korea and China.
IT GOES NUCLEAR.
Landay 00 (Jonathan S., National Security and Intelligence Correspondent, Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service, 3-10, Lexis)
Few if any experts think … Commerce Department
2NC – Draw-In
Draws in Russia and China
Xianet News 12-20-10 http://www.xianet.net/2010/12/the-third-world-war-might-start-in-korea-warns-russia/
The central newspaper …. which USA might face China.
2NC - T/ Credibility
Backlash to the plan causes amendments and riders and destroys the plans signal
Rogin 7-22-11 (Josh. national security writer - Foreign Policy “Berman: Marathon foreign policy markup was a “series of tantrums” http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/22/berman_marathon_foreign_policy_markup_was_a_series_of_tantrums#.Ti1WGo73TYI.email
Berman said …. signed by the president.
Hard power decline inevitable---the US has to compensate w/soft power---SKFTA is key
Doug Bandow 10 is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute "South Korea Free Trade Agreement Key to Prosperity and Security" Oct 19 2010 www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12488
Expanding trade … it easier for its people to trade.
A. It’ll be a fight with congressional democrats -
Reuters 9-22-11 (Senate OKs retraining program key to trade dealshttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/22/us-usa-trade-congress-vote-idUSTRE78L6VB20110922)
The Senate on Thursday …. manufacturing economy."
B. Obama will need to use PC to get them
Needham 9-25-11 (Vicki. Pelosi and Reid at odds with Obama over trade
Correspondent. The Hill. http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/1005-trade/183759-pelosi-and-reid-at-odds-with-obama-on-trade-deals-)
The White House and Democratic ……… have deemed the trade deals "job killers."
Trade top of the docket
Needham 9-21-11 (Vicki. Correspondent. The Hill. OVERNIGHT MONEY: Second CR, trade, supercommittee top Peter Schroeder and Bernie Becker. http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/1007-other/183123-overnight-money-second-cr-trade-supercommittee-top-agenda-
Trade watch: The Senate … soon as we can.”
TAA passage means trade will be top of the docket after the recess and will pass
Dennis 9-22-11 (Roll Call. Senate Passes Trade Assistance Bill
http://www.rollcall.com/news/senate_passes_trade_assistance_bill-208966-1.html?pos=htmbtxt)
The Senate passed …. Panama trade deals.
No thumpers – nothing costs political capital under legislation is enacted
Drum 10 (Kevin Drum is a political blogger for Mother Jones, “Immigration
Coming Off the Back Burner?”, Mar. 30, 2010)
Not to pick on …. tackle during an election year.
China bill wont come to vote
AFP, “US Senate to move next week on China bill”, 9/27
Reid said that …. final vote.
No house vote for a year
Doug Palmer, Jobs deficit fuels U.S. Senate action on China yuan, 9/21
If the Senate …. Steelworkers Union.
Presidential leadership shapes the agenda
Kuttner 11 (Robert, Senior Fellow – Demos and Co-editor – American Prospect, “Barack Obama's Theory of Power,” The American Prospect, 5-16,
As the political scientist ……..moves the public agenda.
FTA key to deterring North Korea
Gerwin 10 (Edward F. Senior Fellow for Trade and Global Economic Policy "Guest Contribution: 5 Reasons America Needs Korea Free Trade Deal" Dec 16 blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/12/16/guest-contribution-5-reasons-america-needs-korea-free-trade-deal/)
5. China is Not a Fan. ... for American trade.
Political capital’s key – restores credibility in Asian regional trade
Palmer, 9/2
(Reuters Columnist, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902)
This month business …. Senate to approve the trade pacts.
Solves U.S.-China trade war
Bergsten, Director – Institute for International Economics, 9/6/’5
(Fred, “A New Strategy for APEC,” http://www.pecc.org/ftaap/papers/PECCXVI-GM-Bergsten.pdf)
Only an FTAAP can avoid a severe risk of “drawing a line down the middle of the Pacific” as East Asia and the Western Hemisphere proceed toward …. effects on the entire region.
SKFTA key to economic recovery
Yonhap News Agency 8-10-11
Faced with the risk …. benefits will be pronounced."
Global war
Mead 9 (Walter Russell Mead, Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. The New Republic, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2)
So far, such half-hearted …. economy back on track, we may still have to fight.
FTA key to manufacturing foothold in key growing markets
Donohue, 1-6-2011 [Thomas, president and CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Bellingham Herald, “Korean trade pact is a welcome shot in the arm for U.S. economy,” http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2011/01/06/1802767/korean-trade-pact-is-a-welcome.html]
From the U.S. Chamber …. done for the American people.
Solves oil dependency
Scott 8 (Robert, Senior International Economist and Director of International Programs at the Economic Policy Institute, “The Importance of Manufacturing,” Feb. 13, http://www.sharedprosperity.org/bp211/bp211.pdf)
The manufacturing …. hardest hit by the manufacturing crisis.
Extinction
Lendman 07 (Stephen. “ Resource Wars – Can We Survive Them?”
http://www.rense.com/general76/resrouce.htm
With the world's energy …., would have survived.
Democracy Assistance low – USAID cuts
Reuters 9-7 (“Obama’s diplomacy reforms threatened by cuts,” ahramonline. Sept 7, 2011. http://english.ahram.org.eg/~/NewsContent/2/9/20567/World/International/Obamas-diplomacy-reforms-threatened-by-cuts.aspx)
President Barack …. service officers were prohibited.
Aid low – cuts
Reuters 9-7 (“Obama’s diplomacy reforms threatened by cuts,” ahramonline. Sept 7, 2011. http://english.ahram.org.eg/~/NewsContent/2/9/20567/World/International/Obamas-diplomacy-reforms-threatened-by-cuts.aspx)
House Republicans have … causes of instability, including poverty.
EU Counterplan
Text: The European Commission should substantially increase civil society direct grants to Egyptian unregistered non-governmental organizations.
EU solves better than US – stronger economic cooperation gives EU the most leverage
Wolfgang Zank, Associate Professor in the European Studies Programme at the University of Aalborg, Denmark “Cooperation or Silent Rivalry? The EU and the USA in the Mediterranean – The Case of Egypt”, Perspectives on Federalism, Vol. 2, issue 3, 2010
When comparing US …. as an anchor for democracy.
Diplomatic Statement CP
The United States federal government should issue a diplomatic statement promising the recognition of the outcome of the Egyptian elections as legitimate regardless of participation by the Freedom and Justice party. The statement should promise a policy of peaceful relations and non-intervention but should threaten coercive retaliation, including a reduction of aid, if the Egyptian government participates in conflicts beyond Egypt’s borders, including but not limited to it instigating conflicts with Israel, or participates in religious discrimination. The United States should require and issue a statement of support for a peaceful relationship with Israel.
EU assistance to NGOs solve best – answers coop warrant
Dergham, 11 (Raghida, Senior Diplomatic Correspondent @ Al Hayat, 7/28, http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/article/810401-europe-has-role-play)
The courage of … as in the past.
-EU key
Vasconcelo et al, 11, (Alvaro de, EU Institute for Strategic Studies, March, http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/The_Arab_Democratic_Wave_-_how_the_EU_can_seize_the_moment.pdf)
The EU has a crucial role … to full democracy
-Experience and Framework
Dennison et al -11 (Susi Dennison is a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, working on democracy, human rights and the rule of law, Anthony Dworkin is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, Nicu Popescu and Nick Witney, March 2011, AFTER THE REVOLUTION: EUROPE AND THE TRANSITION IN TUNISIA http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR28_TUNISIA_AW.pdf)
In addition to economic … in the region this time.
-Credibility and influence
Youngs, ’04 (Richard, Civility Program Director, Research Fellow @ ESDP Democracy, http://fpc.org.uk/fsblob/199.pdf)
In recent years ….policies in this field more effective.5
The CP solves all the Aff – the signal is enough
Trager 11 Eric, Washington Institute, September/October, “The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood: Grim Prospects for a Liberal Egypt” Foreign Affairs, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1704
Precisely because the Muslim Brotherhood's success in the elections this fall is likely to push Egyptian foreign policy further away from U.S. interests, the Obama … Square fought so valiantly.
It solves and prevents inevitable war
Lynch 11 (Marc. Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, an Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle East Studies Program at George Washington University, and an editor for the Middle East Channel for ForeignPolicy.com. Upheaval U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East. Center for a New American Security. http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_1.pdf
The United States should … unwanted spirals to war.
MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD
1NC – Internal Links
Internal instability is unlikely – civil-military cooperation is resilient.
Washington Post Editorial Board, “Egypt can still lead the Arab world to democracy,” 7/20/2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/egypt-can-still-lead-the-arab-world-to-democracy/2011/07/19/gIQA7sZbQI_story.html
POST-REVOLUTIONARY Egypt … freedoms are protected.
( ) Muslim Brotherhood is losing power now – internal tensions
Zahid 9/22/11 (Mohammed, “The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt: Agents of Change or Status-Quo? Analysts”)
The Muslim Brotherhood … weakening of control over the movement.
The Muslim Brotherhood would quickly lose any power once elected.
Daniel L. Byman, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, “Egypt 2012: What If the Muslim Brotherhood Comes to Power?” 2/4/2011, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0204_egypt_protests_byman.aspx
A silver lining is … Muslims from Islamism.
( ) Potential for street protests is exaggerated -
Daily Maverick 9/23/11 (“Has Egypt’s Revolution Lost Its Soul”) http://dailymaverick.co.za/article/2011-09-09-has-egypts-revolution-lost-its-soul
In a bid to revive …effecting real change. DM
( ) The RYC isn’t gonna protest – they’re participating in the election
Ahram Online 9/21/11 (“Revolution youth Colaition to Run in Egypt’s Parlimentary Elections”) http://english.ahram.org.eg/~/NewsContent/1/64/21970/Egypt/Politics-/Revolution-Youth-Coalition-to-run-in-parliamentary.aspx
The Revolution Youth Coalition … would join them.
) Status quo democracy efforts will succeed – US intervention isn’t necessary
Peters 2/14/11 (Anne Mariel, Assistant Prof in the Department of Government at Wesleyan University, “Why Obama Shouldn’t increase democracy aid to Egypt”) http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/why_obama_shouldn_t_increase_democracy_aid_to_egypt.
The United States should … and governance funding can do.
( ) US intervention in Egypt causes anti-Americanism and de-stabilizes the new regimes.
Cook 3/1/11 (Steven A., Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, “Foreign Policy: US Can’t Hijack Egypt’s Revolution”) http://www.npr.org/2011/03/14/134417495/foreign-policy-us-cant-hijack-egypts-revolution
An aggressive American effort in Egypt also risks alienating leaders who would otherwise be willing to work with the United States. …be tarred with "Mubarakism."
No nuclear terrorism. If they haven’t done it with more power over 15 years, they won’t now.
Sigger, 1 – 26 (Jason, Defense Policy Analyst focusing on Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Defense issues, “Terrorism Experts Can Be Alarmists, Too”, http://armchairgeneralist.typepad.com/my_weblog/2010/01/terrorism-experts-can-be-alarmists-too-1.html)
You find the famous … at the United States with WMD capabilities.
Insider sources confirm Al Qaeda has no intention to go beyond the internet. They aren't going for a nuke seriously.
Mueller ’10 (John, Prof. Pol. Sci. – Ohio State U., American Conservative, “Nuclear Bunkum”, 1-1, http://www.amconmag.com/article/2010/jan/01/00020/)
To show al-Qaeda’s …. reflection to be low.”
Lebanon
US-Israeli security relationship is stable – no real difference on core issues and Obama wont pressure Netanyahu because he needs Jewish voters
Al-Jazeera TV, Al-Jazeera highlights reactions to Obama's speech, termed "disappointing", s. BBC Monitoring Middle East. London: May 21, 2011.
At 1620 GMT, the …, if I may use the term here."
Israeli fears of democratization and instability will guide their decision making – US democracy assistance will upset the current US-Israeli security paradigm
Daniel Byman is a Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University and the Research Director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings “Israel’s Pessimistic View Of The Arab Spring”, The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2011
Americans took heart as ….and that democratization succeeds.
Breaking Israeli confidence in US security support eliminates the key constraint on Israeli decision making forcing a new war with Lebanon
Jeffrey White, is a defense fellow at The Washington Institute, specializing in the military and security affairs of the Levant, Iraq, and Iran. A thirty-four-year veteran of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). “If War Comes: Israel vs. Hizballah and Its Allies”, Washington Institute, Policy Focus #106 | September 2010
The broad political context …. is under continuous strain.
Middle east wars won’t escalate.
Suzanne Maloney [et al.], Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, 6/28/’7
(http://www.brookings.edu/views/op-ed/maloney20070629.htm)
Yet, the Saudis, Iranians, … as someone else's fight.
Even if the entire middle east gets drawn in it still won’t go global.
Gwynne Dryer, Military Historian, Winter, ‘2 (The Coming War, Queen’s Quarterly)
All of this indicates …. we are out of the business.
AT: Treaty
( ) Brotherhood statements prove that they won’t overturn the treaty
Brown 4/13/11 (Dr. Nathan, Non-resident senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “The Muslim Brotherhood”)
The Brotherhood’s position … Ministry to avoid having to deal with the issue.
( ) No one is trying to threaten Israel
Al Arabiya News 7/5/11 (“Abdul Rahman Al Rashed: The West and Islamists, a Historical Shift”)
Muslim Brotherhood group …. war, either.”
IRAN
( ) No loss of credibility coming
Arab countries aligning with U.S. in the sqo – Iran has no stroke in the region
Lynch 11 (Marc. Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, an Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle East Studies Program at George Washington University, and an editor for the Middle East Channel for ForeignPolicy.com. Upheaval U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East. Center for a New American Security. http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_1.pdf
Tehran’s regional …. aligning with Tehran.
US democracy assistance creates opportunity for Iran to reignite expansion throughout the Middle East turns the case
White 11 (Gregory. Correspondent. Business Insider. March 16. What's Really Happening In Bahrain And Why It Matters. http://www.businessinsider.com/whats-happening-in-bahrain)
It appears Saudi Arabia …. for Iran in the region.
( ) No Impact to this advantage:
A. Checks and balances in Iranian system prevent individuals from making dangerous decisions
Stratfor 9 (Iran: A Presidential Election and Metamorphosis. June 11. http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090610_iran_presidential_election_and_metamorphosis)
It is because of this … individual and collective interests.
B. Iran not adventurist
Boroujerdi 7 (Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program at Syracuse University and Fine, A graduate student in International Relations at the Maxwell
School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University, 2007. Syracuse Law Review. IRANIAN NUCLEAR MIASMA).
The acquisition of nuclear … additional territory in Iraq.
C. Iran won’t attack Israel – they’re deterred by retaliation
Schelling 7 (Thomas. Awarded the Nobel Prize for economics for 2005. professor emeritus at the University of Maryland -Interview with Nathan Gardels, “IRANIAN USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPON ON ISRAEL WOULD BE 'SUICIDE BOMB'” http://www.digitalnpq.org/articles/nobel/29/10-27-2005/thomas_c._schelling)
GARDELS: Iran is … and deterrence — and what they are not — actual use.
D. No risk of miscalc – multilayered decision making bodies check high risk behavior
Boroujerdi 7 (Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program at Syracuse University and Fine, A graduate student in International Relations at the Maxwell
School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University, 2007. Syracuse Law Review. IRANIAN NUCLEAR MIASMA)
The potential for groupthink miscalculations … engaging in a boldly offensive or miscalculated action less realistic.
Iran is a purely defensive state-
- Mayer ‘4 (Charles Mayer, Major, United States Air Force, National Security to Nationalist Myth: Why Iran Wants Nuclear Weapons, Thesis for Master of Arts in Security Studies from the Naval Postgraduate School, September, 2004, www.fas.org/nuke/guide/iran/mayer.pdf
Iran can rightly be viewed … the use of chemical munitions.
Iran won’t be militarily aggressive- no capability
Zunes ‘5 (Stephen Zunes, Middle East editor for Foreign Policy in Focus and Professor of Politics at the University of San Francisco, 7-26-05, The U.S. and Iran: Democracy, Terrorism, and Nuclear Weapons, fpif policy report, http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/173
There is little … over such sensitive weapons.
Timeframe – tensions are high –
Jeffrey White, is a defense fellow at The Washington Institute, specializing in the military and security affairs of the Levant, Iraq, and Iran. A thirty-four-year veteran of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). “If War Comes: Israel vs. Hizballah and Its Allies”, Washington Institute, Policy Focus #106 | September 2010
The U.S. Role
In some ways,_ the current situation …. not without substantial costs.
Israeli perception of decreased US Commitment to their interest encourage them to act unilaterally
Steinberg, Political Studies Department and BESA Center for Strategic Studies 1999
Gerald M., RUSI International Security Review - 1999, published by the Royal United Services Institute for Defence Analysis, UK, pp. 215-224
At the same time, … of unilateral action
( ) Close cooperation with the US prevents Israeli lashout.
Gerald M. Steinberg 98, Bar-Ilan University political science professor, November 1998, Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 2, No. 4, http://www.biu.ac.il/soc/besa/meria/journal/1998/issue4/jv2n4a7.html
Following the … important contribution.
.
A. US policy toward Arab Spring is being constructed through Israeli security lens now – Ehud Barak meetings
AFP, “US voices commitment to Israel in defense talks”, July 28, 2011
WASHINGTON — The United … in Middle East peace.
B. Security relations are strong: retreated on 1967 framework, Netanyahu comments, Iron Dome funding, Iran pressure, blocking anti-Israel policies in UN, Gaza flotilla support, missile defense
Marc Stanley is the chair of the National Jewish Democratic Council, Op-Ed: Obama isn’t being treated fairly on Israel, August 15, 2011
WASHINGTON (JTA) -- I was amused … truly on the same page.
