1AC - Women in Politics

• Tournament: GSU | Round: 1 | Opponent: West Georgia | Judge: Jacobs
  
  

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• The United States federal government should increase assistance for Yemeni political parties and organizations to increase women’s participation and leadership.

  The protests against Saleh create an opportunity to gain tribal and opposition support for greater women’s participation in politics

  Almasmari and  Jamjoom 11
  (Hakim Almasmari and Mohammed Jamjoom, “Yemeni women: President is degrading us”, CNN.com, April 16, http://articles.cnn.com/2011-04-16/world/yemen.women.protesters_1_amal-basha-yemeni-women-jawf?_s=PM:WORLD)

  "Saleh has finally shown … and men follow."
   
  US support for increased women’s representation in Yemeni government is necessary for any future reform.  Only acting now will prevent retrenchment.

  IFES 11
  (International Foundation for Electoral Systems, “New Challenges, Opportunities for Women’s Political Participation in the Middle East”, August 16, http://www.ifes.org/Content/Publications/News-in-Brief/2011/August/New-Challenges-Opportunities-for-Womens-Political-Participation-in-the-Middle-East.aspx?p=1)

  As popular movements … constitutional protections are 

  US assistance is effective in promoting reform in Yemen.  We must increase assistance now for women to gain lasting improvements from the Arab Spring.

  Hudson and Leidl 11
  (Valerie M. Hudson is professor of political science at BYU, and Patricia Leidl is an international communications consultant currently working in Afghanistan. “The Arab Intifada and Women's Rights”, World Politics Review, February 2, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/7749/the-arab-intifada-and-womens-rights)
  The massive, exhilarating … current dictatorships fall. 

  Now is the key time, we need to support women’s involvement in Yemeni politics to keep larger social and political reforms moving forward

  Tholen 11
  (Minjon Tholen is a Research Intern at the Institute for Women’s Policy Research, “Now is the Time to Raise Women’s Voices in Yemen”, Institute for Women’s Policy Research Blog, August 11, http://www.iwpr.org/blog/2011/08/11/now-is-the-time-to-raise-women%E2%80%99s-voices-in-yemen/

  Women have been instrumental … ensuring true social change. 

  Democracy assistance is necessary to promote effective women candidates.  Only explicit focus on political processes can overcome patriarchal barriers to women’s participation.

  Sabbagh 5
  (Amal Sabbagh is a former Secretary General of the Jordanian National Commission for Women (JNCW), “The Arab States: Enhancing Women’s Political Participation” Women in Parliament: Beyond Numbers, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, http://static0.idea.int/publications/wip2/upload/Arab_World.pdf)

  Patriarchal structures … nominate more women.

  Women’s political participation is the best way to challenge patriarchy

  Sabbagh 5
  (Amal Sabbagh is a former Secretary General of the Jordanian National Commission for Women (JNCW), “The Arab States: Enhancing Women’s Political Participation” Women in Parliament: Beyond Numbers, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, http://static0.idea.int/publications/wip2/upload/Arab_World.pdf)

  ‘The women’s movement…… as the harbingers of a better future.
   
  Political process support and dedicated funding for increasing women’s participation in electoral politics challenges the institutional masculinity of traditional state structures.

  Karam 5
  (Azza Karam is Senior Policy Research Advisor in the Arab Human Development Report Unit of the United Nations Development Programme, “Conclusions”, Women in Parliament: Beyond Numbers, http://www.idea.int/publications/wip2/upload/WiP_inlay.pdf)

  It is relatively easy to … their efforts are assessed. 

  Patriarchy promotes rape, domestic violence, environmental destruction, warism, nuclear proliferation, and will culminate in extinction.
  Warren and Cady, 94 (Karen and Duane, Feminism and Peace: Seeing Connections, Hypatia, Vol. 9, No. 2, Spring, p4-20)
  Operationalized, the evidence of …, national and global contexts.

  Systemic discrimination against women leads to violence and the denial of legal personhood.  This denial of agency can only be overcome by political participation and involvement in policymaking.

  Hoveyda 2005
  (Ambassador Fereydoun Hoveyda is the Middle East project director of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy “Arab Women and the Future of the Middle East”, American Foreign Policy Interests No. 27,  http://ipac.kacst.edu.sa/eDoc/2006/157373_1.pdf)
  Another panelist began her …an integral and inseparable part of it. 

  Systemic discrimination in Yemen leads to widespread violence against women, only political reform can solve

  Amnesty International 9
  (“YEMENI WOMEN FACE VIOLENCE AND DISCRIMINATION”, November 25, http://www.amnesty.org/en/news-and-updates/report/yemeni-women-face-violence-and-discrimination-20091125)

  Women in Yemen … their human rights.
   
  Now is a window of opportunity to promote lasting women’s rights improvements in Yemen.  Democracy assistance and electoral support now can create a stable transition and improvements in women’s political status.

  POMED 11
  (Project on Middle East Democracy, “Women in the Middle East: Attitudes and Advocacy in an Opening Political Space” The International Foundation for Electoral Systems, Interaction Forum Notes, August 12, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Women_in_the_Middle_East_August_12_20111.pdf)

  Next, Rana Jarhum ….by opposing groups.
   
  US democracy assistance is effective at promoting women’s participation in Yemeni elections.

  Campbell 10
  (Leslie Campbell is senior associate and regional director for the Middle East and north Africa at the National Democratic Institute in the United States, “Party-building in the Middle East”, International Journal, Summer, http://www.ndi.org/files/Party_Building_MENA_Campbell.pdf)

  From a technical vantage point, …and hope persists that progress will continue.
   
  The problems facing Yemeni women are distinct, democracy assistance must be targeted to local conditions to be effective.

  Sabbagh 5
  (Amal Sabbagh is a former Secretary General of the Jordanian National Commission for Women (JNCW), “The Arab States: Enhancing Women’s Political Participation” Women in Parliament: Beyond Numbers, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, http://static0.idea.int/publications/wip2/upload/Arab_World.pdf)

  The above examples provide ….measures during elections. 

  We need democracy assistance and women’s participation in politics to build coalitions against discrimination.  Support for political programs complements the larger women’s movement.

  Sabbagh 5
  (Amal Sabbagh is a former Secretary General of the Jordanian National Commission for Women (JNCW), “The Arab States: Enhancing Women’s Political Participation” Women in Parliament: Beyond Numbers, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, http://static0.idea.int/publications/wip2/upload/Arab_World.pdf)
  The non-democratic systems or … set of priorities, opportunities and challenges.
   
  Debates about the implementation of policies and strategies to improve women’s participation in Yemeni politics offers a chance to examine our own political inequalities.

  Kennedy-Glans 6
  (Donna Kennedy-Glans is the founder and executive director of Bridges Social Development, a Canadian registered charity providing capacity building in Yemen, “Gender Jihad: Enhancing Female Access in Politics”, Yemen Online, http://www.yemenonline.info/news-62.html)
  Of course, not everyone is … strategies that have impact.  

   
  Debates about women in Yemeni politics allow us to dispel myths about women in politics, leading to real improvements in our thinking about gender and politics

  Kennedy-Glans 6
  (Donna Kennedy-Glans is the founder and executive director of Bridges Social Development, a Canadian registered charity providing capacity building in Yemen, “Gender Jihad: Enhancing Female Access in Politics”, Yemen Online, http://www.yemenonline.info/news-62.html)
  Perhaps we first need to … experiences with gender jihad.
   

  
  
  

1AC - Governance - GSU Prelims

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

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• Text: The United States federal government should substantially increase its support for capacity and oversight of local government institutions in Yemen.

  1AC – Inherency

  USAID local capacity assistance is underfunded and not perceived as a credible model because of lack of commitment
  Bodine 10 (Barbara, Lecturer and Diplomat-in-Residence at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, "Yemen: Primer and Prescriptions," Prism, National Defense University Press, June, http://www.ndu.edu/press/yemen.html)
  The 2010–2012 USAID …. not seek to reinvent. 

  Effectiveness of the councils is limited by poor capacity and institutional knowledge – assistance is key
  ARD 4 ("Democracy and Governance Assessment of Yemen," Work Conducted Under Core Task Order No. 1 Under USAID Contract, February, pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNACX728.pdf)
  Such a system was … the basic needs of the people.

  1AC – Advantage – Civil War

  Advantage 1: Civil War
  Yemeni government concessions to reform the patronage system is key to prevent the outbreak of civil war
  ICG 11 (International Crisis Group, "Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (II): Yemen between Reform and REvolution," Middle East/North Africa Report No 102, March 10, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iran-gulf/yemen/102-popular-protest-in-north-africa-and-the-middle-east-II-yemen-between-reform-and-revolution.aspx)
  The regime also …ailing social contract.

  It doesn’t matter who is in charge – fighting corruption and reform is key
  Alley 11 (April, "Yemen on the Brink," Foreign Affairs, April 4, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67699/april-longley-alley/yemen-on-the-brink?page=show)
  If Yemen’s political elites can … country’s political trajectory.

  Protests are very likely to turn violent – regional differences and small arms
  ICG 11 (International Crisis Group, "Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (II): Yemen between Reform and REvolution," Middle East/North Africa Report No 102, March 10, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iran-gulf/yemen/102-popular-protest-in-north-africa-and-the-middle-east-II-yemen-between-reform-and-revolution.aspx)
  The prospect of violence. … for democratic reform.
  A Yemeni civil war causes refugees to spill over the border – collapses stability
  Horton 11 (Michael, Senior Analyst for Arabian Affairs at the Jamestown Foundation - Specializes on Yemen and the Horn of Africa, "The Unseen Hand: Saudi Arabian Involvement in Yemen," Terrorism Monitor, Volume 9, Issue 12, March 24,  www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=37687&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=2d68e72ad976a563c017aee8cfd2ebf6)
  The future of Yemen is … certainly worth remembering.   

  Saudi Arabia collapse immediately tanks the global economy – key to market stability
  Stewart 11 (Heather, Economics Editor for The Guardian "Still-fragile world evonomy braced for effects of another oil shock" February 27, 2011  http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/27/world-economy-braced-for-oil-shock)
  In the west, meanwhile, where … more bad news to turn it into a blowout.

  Continued economic decline will result in global war.
  Mead 9 (Walter Russell Mead, Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. The New Republic, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2)JFS
  So far, such half-hearted …, we may still have to fight.

  Yemen failed state shuts down shipping lanes throughout the region
  Lister 11 (Tim, "Why we should care about Yemen," CNN Global public square, June 3, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/06/03/why-we-should-care-about-yemen/)
  Permalink
  At first glance, it might seem … to the government's revenues.

  MENA is key to global energy security – interruptions cause resource wars
  Gonkel 8 (Mete, *Energy Strategist (Former BOTAŞ Chairman and CEO), "The New Game Tensions and Conflicts for Energy Transport Routes," Eurasia Critic, May, http://www.eurasiacritic.com/articles/new-game-tension-and-conflicts-energy-transport-routes)
  The MENA Region is, … to disastrous oil spills.
  Resource tension causes nuclear conflict with Russia and China –extinction
  Henderson 7 (Bill, Besline Research CEO/President/consultant _{“Climate Change, Peak Oil, and Nuclear War,” Countercurrents,  February 24, http://www.countercurrents.org/cc-henderson240207.htm)
  Damocles had one life threatening … as nature}

  Assistance creates communication and trust between the government and local actors
  Greenfield 10 (Danya, Program officer with the Middle East and North Africa division at the Center for International Private Enterprise, "Sustainable Development is Possible in Yemen," Center for American Progress, January 14,http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/01/sustainable_development_yemen.html)
  U.S. policy should focus … with tribal groups.

  Democracy assistance is key – muzzles the pressure for civil war
  Boucek et al 10 (Christopher [Jeffrey Feltman, Robert Godec, Leslie Campbell, Bruce Reidel and Jonathan Schanzer], Associate, Middle East Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Assistant Secretary of State, Principle Deputy Coordinator of Counterterrorism at the State Department, Senior Associate Regional Director for Middle East and North Africa at the NDI, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Vice President for Research at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, YEMEN ON THE BRINK: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY, Written Testimony U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs February 3, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/0203_transcript_boucek_testimony.pdf)
  Having said that, democratic … as they are currently.
   

  1AC – Advantage – AQAP

  Advantage 2: AQAP
  Drone strikes on AQAP are inevitable but will fail and produce blowback because of lack of local knowledge – supplementing counterterrorism with governance is key
  Gude and Sofer 11 (Ken and Ken, Managing Director of the National Security and Internal Policy Program and Special Assistant, "Misfiring at Al Qaeda in Yemen," Center for American Progress, July 14, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/06/yemen_drones)
  The Wall Street Journal …serious problem worse.

  AQAP is using governance to take over the Southern provinces – countering them is key to prevent an emirate state and terror attacks
  Zimmerman 11 (Katherine, "Al Qaeda's Gains in South Yemen," American Enterprise Institute, July 8, Zihttp://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/al-qaedas-gains-south-yemen-july-8-2011)
  Islamist militant groups took … in south Yemen.

  Yemen failed state makes it a terrorist safe Haven
  Knoetgen 11 (Peter, "Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil," Central European Journal of International and Security Studies," May 16, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil)
  Yet even when the government … associated with the fourth.

  Defeating AQAP is key to ending Al-Qaeda – their leadership is vulnerable
  Terrill 11 (Andrew, Research Professor in National Security Affairs, "The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security," Defence Talk, February 15, Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.defencetalk.com/the-conflicts-in-yemen-and-us-national-security-32049/)
  Additionally, Yemen’s government …emerging insurgent movement.

  Safe Haven in Yemen allows AQAP to plot terrorist attacks – they will be successful
  Boucek 11 (Christopher, Associate of the Middle East Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,  "Alarming Reality in Yemen," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, The Hill, March 9, http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=42938)
  Because of the … needing to travel abroad. 

  Retaliation defense doesn’t apply – three reasons
  Brenner 10 (Michael, Professor of International Affairs at the University of Pittsburgh, "When do We Go To War in Yemen?" The National Journal, January 5, http://security.nationaljournal.com/2010/01/when-do-we-go-to-war-in-yemen.php#1403177)
  We appear trapped in a room …-season NBA game.

  Terrorist retaliation causes nuclear war – draws in Russia and China
  Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (“After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)
  A terrorist nuclear attack, and … with a devastating response.

  AQAP will gain the material to initiate a nuclear terrorist attack
  Williams 11 (Sarah, Coordinator of the Fissile Materials Working Group and Herbert Scoville Jr. Peace Fellow at the Center for Science, Technology and sEcurity Policy, "After bin Laden: Nuclear terrorism still a top threat," Bulletin of Atomic Scientists - Fissile MAterials Working Group, May 13, www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/columnists/fissile-materials-working-group/after-bin-laden-nuclear-terrorism-still-top-t)
  More than a decade ago, Osama bin … this potential source material.

  Assistance is key – demonstrates commitment to society that fills the power vacuum
  BPC 11 (Co-Chairs Ambassador Paula Dobriansky and Admiral (Ret.) Gregory Johnson, "A Stitch in Time: Stabilizing Fragile States," Bipartisan Policy Center, May, http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/FS_Final.pdf)
  The issue of good governmental…fully one-third of the country’s provinces.64

  Decentralized governance assistance is key to gaining local knowledge to end AQAP
  Green 11 (Daniel, Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute, "The al-Qaeda Crescent in Yemen," The Washington Institute, June 22, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3374)
  Much like AQAP, the U.S. … on the United States. 

  The plan is key – it shores up US credibility and increases co-operative networks to fight AQAP
  Green 11 (Daniel, Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, "The American Moment in Yemen," Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/)
  It is becoming increasingly … representative.

  1AC – Solvency

  Local governance assistance solves – increases citizen participation, improves resource management, promotes transparency and fosters development
  ARD 4 ("Democracy and Governance Assessment of Yemen," Work Conducted Under Core Task Order No. 1 Under USAID Contract, February, pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNACX728.pdf)
  Local governance offers … sustainability plans are developed.

  Local councils solidify the credibility of political reforms – demonstrates tangible benefits, increase the contribution to policy dialogue and strengthens constituencies
  ARD 4 ("Democracy and Governance Assessment of Yemen," Work Conducted Under Core Task Order No. 1 Under USAID Contract, February, pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNACX728.pdf)
  Yemen is at a critical phase in its … with the local councils.

  
  
  

2AC - Yemen - Case

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• AQAP - Impact - Heg

  AQAP terrorist attack collapses heg –causes retaliation and bleeding wars
  Terrill 11 (Andrew, Research Professor in National Security Affairs, "The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security," Defence Talk, February 15, Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.defencetalk.com/the-conflicts-in-yemen-and-us-national-security-32049/)
  Osama bin Laden and the ... and the Middle East.

  Pre-eminence prevents great power wars
  Khalilzad11 (Zalmay, counselor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, "Letters: Follow the Leader," The National Interest, February 2, http://nationalinterest.org/letters/follow-the-leader-4817)
  Part of the problem with ... American global leadership.

  Oil Shocks Impact - Warming

  The impact is global energy wars and expanded coal use
  King 8 – Researcher @ Center for New American Security [Neil King, Jr. (Columnist for the Wall Street Journal), “Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns,” CNAS Energy Security Visionaries Series, Center for New American Security, JULY 2008, pg. www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/.../_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf]
  A peaking of oil supplies ...strained food supplies. 

  Expanded coal use causes warming and massive species fallout - causes extinction
  Hansen 9 - Director of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies [James Hansen (Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences @  Columbia University and Ph.D. in Physics  from the University of Iowa),  “Coal-fired power stations are death factories. Close them,” The Observer, Sunday 15 February 2009,  pg. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/15/james-hansen-power-plants-coal]
  A year ago, I wrote to... dioxide rose another 100 ppm. 

  AT: Alt Causes

  The plan is key to solving the root cause
  Lewis 11 (Alexandra, researcher and doctoral candidate at the Post-War Reconstruction and Development Unit of the University of New York, "Stabilizing Yemen," Atlantic Community, February 11,  http://www.atlantic-community.org/index/articles/view/Stabilizing_Yemen)
  If Yemen's crises are t... financing one or the other.

  Political crisis is key to addressing all other issues
  Boucek 11 (Christopher, associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program, "Higher Stakes in Yemen," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 14, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/06/14/higher-stakes-in-yemen/1rl)
  This current political ...other issues, the better. 

  
  
  

2AC - EU Counterplan

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
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• Doesn’t solve AQAP
  1) Co-operation
  Bodine 10 (Barbara, Lecturer and Diplomat-in-Residence at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, "Yemen: Primer and Prescriptions," Prism, National Defense University Press, June, http://www.ndu.edu/press/yemen.html)
  This is an ambitious program a... and programs with Yemen. 

  2) Intelligence sharing
  Mitchell 11 (Robert, Former Foreign Service Officer with USAID, Earned Degrees from the University of Michigan, Harvard’s China Area Program and Columbia, “Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency,” Small Wars Journal, August 1, smallwarsjournal.com/node/11077)
  Even the best of Yemen‘s...respective projects in Yemen.

  3) Relationships with civil society networks
  Burke 10 (Edward, Researcher at FRIDE,  "Assessing Democracy Assistance: Yemen," FRIDE, May, http://www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Yemen_ENG_jul10.pdf)
  Among NGOs, the ...than European donors.

  Yemen wont cooperate or will only make symbolic moves and heavy US presence undermines local and competing relationships
  Wennerholm et al 10 (Peter [Erik Brattberg and Mark Rhinard], “The EU as a counterter-terrorism actor abroad: finding opportunities, overcoming constraints,” EPC Issue Paper No. 60, September, http://www.epc.eu/pub_details.php?cat_id=2&pub_id=1152)
  The case studies reveal c... can suffer in the face of vested interests.

  EU democracy assistance fails – long chain of command undermines its own goals
  Federica Bicchia, “Dilemmas of implementation: EU democracy assistance in the Mediterranean”, Democratization, Volume 17, Issue 5, 2010
  The article shows how and why, ...various and divergent ways.

  EU can’t promote democracy in Middle East – 3 reasons
  -No commitment
  -No target government cooperation
  -Bureaucracy
  Mona Yacoubian "Promoting Middle East Democracy, European Initiatives" United States Institute of Peace, Special Report 127, October 2004, www.usip.org/files/resources/sr127.pdf
  Still, a successful European d... getting lost along the way.

  Only US assistance has credibility with opposition groups – EU doesn’t incorporate local input
  Burke 10 (Edward, Researcher at FRIDE, "Assessing Democracy Assistance: Yemen," FRIDE, May, http://www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Yemen_ENG_jul10.pdf)
  A major donor weakness identified ... terrorism in the long-term.19

  EU assistance fails – overly complicated, biased, lacks transparency and ignores local voices
  Burke 10 (Edward, Researcher at FRIDE,  "Assessing Democracy Assistance: Yemen," FRIDE, May, http://www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Yemen_ENG_jul10.pdf)
  EU funding for democracy ... for democratic standards.

  No money for the counterplan
  Fiona Hill, Senior Fellow and Director, Center on the United States and Europe  The Brookings Institution
  “Europe’s Future In A Turbulent World 2011 Cuse Annual Conference, Panel 2: Europe’s Power in the World”, Brookings Institute, May 26, 2011
  So I wanted an initial question t...a major assistance package. 

  EU fails – credibility
  Richard Youngs, director of the democratisation programme at the Fundación para las Relaciones
  Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior (FRIDE) in Madrid, and lecturer at the University of Warwick, “Europe’s flawed approach to Arab democracy,” Centre for European Reform, 2006. http://www.cer.org.uk/pdf/essay_youngs_arab_democracy.pdf,
  The same is true of ...  opponents.  In  private  

  
  
  

2AC - SKFTA

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• The U.S. will never abandon free tradeinstitutions and self-interest check
  Ikenson 2009 – director of Cato's Center for Trade Policy Studies (Daniel, Center for Trade Policy Studies, Free Trade Bulletin 37, “A protectionism fling”, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10651, WEA)
  A Growing Constituency for Freer T... trade policy is an example to uphold.

  (    ) SKFTA won’t pass now – House hang ups with the TAA
  Kansas City Star 9/9/11 (“Politics on Trade Trumps Common Sense”) http://www.kansascity.com/2011/09/09/3130427/politics-on-trade-trumps-common.html
  So why the hold-up in Washington? ...Boehner and company, do the math.  

  Jobs Bill
  Bolton 9-9-11 (Alexander. Correspondent. The Hill. Dems: Great speech, now walk the walk. http://thehill.com/homenews/house/180473-dems-great-speech-now-walk-the-walk.)
  Democratic lawmakers ... vowed to step it up.

  No political capital now to push for anything
  Stirewalt 9/6
  (Chris, "Impossible Expectations for Obama Speech" September 6, 2011, www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/09/06/impossible-expectations-for-obama-speech/
  But the polls reveal that O/... toward congressional Republicans.

  No Link – Democracy assistance doesn’t attract any Congressional or public scrutiny
  Carothers 10 (Thomas. vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. In this capacity, he oversees the Democracy and Rule of Law Program and Carnegie Europe.  House Committee on Foreign Affairs, June 10. Effective U.S. Democracy Assistance Requires Reform at USAID. Carnegie Endowment. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/?fa=view&id=40967)
  Doing Better The key to... of much outside examination. 

  (    ) Democracy assistance has wide bipartisan support -
  Democracy Digest 10 (July 21st 2010, “Bipartisanship is dead? Vin Weber Award Affirms Consensus on Advancing Democracy”)
  Joining the ranks of such l...freedom and democracy,” he said.  

  The plan is popular in Congress – inaction draws backlash
  Al-Azaki 10 (Mohammed, "Closely Observing Country's Situation, US Administration to Give Hand to Yemen," YemenPost, April 10, http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=1177&MainCat=6)
  The American delegation’s ... and depleting oil reservoirs.

  Wins regenerate political capital
  Singer 9 (Jonathan  senior writer and editor for MyDD. My Direct Democracy, 3-3-09, http://www.mydd.com/story/2009/3/3/191825/0428)
  From the latest NBC ... to ending the war in Iraq.

  
  
  

1AC - AQAP - Oil Impact

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• Yemen is the training ground for terrorism against Saudi Arabia – will attack oil facilities in Saudi Arabia
  Ulrichsen 11 (Kristian, Kuwait Research Fellow in the Kuwait Programme for Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States Centre for the Study of Global Governance at the London SChool of Economics and Political SCience, "The Geopolitics of Insecurity in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula," Middle East Policy Council, http://www.mepc.org/journal/middle-east-policy-archives/geopolitics-insecurity-horn-africa-and-arabian-peninsula?print)
  The reconstitution of AQAP in ...stability in the Arabian Peninsula.9

  Attacks on Saudi oil facilities collapse the global economy
  Gartenstein-Ross 11 (Daveed, Directs the Center for the Study of Terrorist Radicalization at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, "Osama's Oil Obsession," Foreign Policy, May 23, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/23/osamas_oil_obsession)
  Bin Laden long believed that ...they didn't think about."

  AQAP will use Yemen to shut down shipments through the Bab-al-Mandeb
  Gertz 10 (Bill, "Navy warns of al Qaeda risk near Yemen," The Washington Times, March 22, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/mar/22/navy-warns-ships-about-al-qaeda-risk-near-yemen/print/)
  "Information suggests that ... outlet Ilaf.com on Feb. 16

  Closing down the Bab-el-Mandeb shuts down the Suez Canal
  Watkins 10 (Eric, Editor of Oil Diplomacy, “Al-Qaeda’s new oil strategy,” Oil and Gas Journal, February 15, Lexis)
  The oil and gas industry ... breaks on the global economy

  Sterne 11 (Paul, Managing Partner at Sterne and Co, “Egypt's Second Suez Canal Crisis” Ground Report, Jaunary 30, http://www.groundreport.com/World/Second-Suez-Crisis/2933579)
  Egypt matters for one reason  t....Egypt began will look tame. 

  Continued economic decline will result in global war.
  Mead 9 (Walter Russell Mead, Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. The New Republic, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2)
  So far, such half-...may still have to fight.

  Economic decline causes war – studies prove
  Royal 10 (Jedediah, Director Cooperative Threat Reduction DOD “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises” in ‘Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives’ ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)
  Less intuitive is how periods ...debate and deserves more attention.

  
  
  

1AC - Civil War - Saudi-Iran Prolif

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• - 

  
  

• Saudi-Iran conflict over Yemen causes a regional arms race
  Spindle and Coker 11 (Bill and Margaret, "The New Cold War," The Wall Street Journal, April 16, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html)
  But comparison to the short-lived f... pressure to develop one of its own.

  Middle East conflict triggers nuclear warfare—end of the Cold War increased the risk of escalation
  Primakov 9 (Yevgeny, President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation; Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences; member of the Editorial Board of Russia in Global Affairs. This article is based on the scientific report for which the author was awarded the Lomonosov Gold Medal of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2008, “The Middle East Problem in the Context of International Relations” RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 7 • No. 3 • JULY – SEPTEMBER)
  The Middle East conflict is ...rule out such a possibility.

  Middle East prolif causes destabilizing arms races, escalation, and nuclear terrorism.
  Feldman 6 (Noah, Professor of Law at the University of Harvard College of Law, "Nuclear holocaust: A Risk too big even for martyrs?" New York Times, October 27, www.nytimes.com/2006/10/27/world/africa/27iht-bombforweb.3310676.html)
  Adding the nuclear ingredient ... to make a sale will increase.

  
  
  

2AC - Topicality - Governance

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• We meet – the plan increases governance assistance to local councils in Yemen – a core element of our democracy assistance strategy
  USAID 11 (United States Agency for International Development, “Yemen," Middle East, http://www.usaid.gov/locations/middle_east/countries/yemen/)
  Governing Justly and Democratically ...participation in the political process.

  Counter-interpretation – Topical aff has the USAID assist rule of law, civil society, elections, political processes or governance
  McMahon 2 (Edward, Dean’s Professor of Applied Politics at Binghamton, Director at the Center of Democratic Performance, “The Impact of US Democracy and Governance Assistance in Africa: Benin Case Study,” August 29-September 1, http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB068.pdf)
  Donor agencies may differ s.... processes, and governance.

  The aff is predictable – governance is the majority of democracy assistance
  GAO 9 (Government Accountability Office, “DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE U.S. Agencies Take Steps to Coordinate International Programs but Lack Information on Some U.S.-funded Activities,” September, http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB950.pdf)
  Although State/F information sy... Freedom House rating.) 

  Err aff – democracy assistance is a weak mechanism, there’s no literature about it and an overwhelming propensity for negative generics
  McFaul 7 (Michael, Professor at Stanford, “Democracy Promotion: Cornerstone of U.S. Foreign Policy,” Quoted in Congressional Research Service Report to Congress, December 26, www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34296.pdf)
  Measuring the effects of ... democracy promotion do not exist. 6

  
  
  

2AC - Kritik - Orientalism

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• Epistemology must be secondary to the prior question of political practice

  Jarvis 00 (Darryl, Senior Lecturer in International Relations – University of Sydney, International Relations and the Challenge of Postmodernism, p. 128-9)
  More is the pity that ...struggle at marginal places.

  Risk in the international system is inevitable—the goal should be to weigh the impacts of action vs inaction in the face of a particular threat.  
  Harvard Nuclear Study Group 83 (Living with Nuclear Weapons, p.16-7)
  When President John F. Kennedy ... and decide on policy accordingly.     

  Said’s critique is totalizing and prevents successful politics in the Middle East
  Teitelbaum and Litvak 6 (Joshua and Meir, Senior Fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, "Students, Teachers and Edward Said: Taking Stock of Orientalism," Middle East Review of International Affairs, March,www.campus-watch.org/article/id/2493)
  Since the publication of O...society and politics.

  Turn – the alt can’t solve the AQAP advantage
  Warraq 07 (Ibn, Founder of the Institute for the Secularisation of Islamic Study and senior research fellow at the Center for Inquiry, “Defending the West: A Critique of Edward Said’s Orientalism” pg. 49-50)
  For a number of years now, ... Western Orientalism really is."72

  
  
  

1AR - Kritik - Orientalism

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• 1AR – Terrorism Comes First
  (  )  Short-term big impacts come before critiques of epistemology – even if there’s only a very small chance we’re right, it’s worth trying to prevent short-term catastrophes
  Tyler Cowen, GMU, December 2006, “The Epistemic Problem Does Not Refute Consequentialism,” Utilitas, 18:4, pq
  Let us start with a simple ...should do the trick.

  (  ) Critiques of representations can’t change U.S. policy toward the Middle East – people won’t give up their pre-conceived notions no matter how true their K is
  Elliott Colla, Director of Middle East Studies at the Watson Institute for International Studies and Professor of Comparative Literature at Brown, 2003, Postcolonial Studies, Vol. 6, No. 3, p. 119
  How might the arguments ... supposed to explain. 

   (  )  Unmasking the violence of Middle East representations solves nothing – the public at large doesn’t care and would actually call for more violence based on their K
  Elliott Colla, Director of Middle East Studies at the Watson Institute for International Studies and Professor of Comparative Literature at Brown, 2003, Postcolonial Studies, Vol. 6, No. 3, p. 116
  Both Chomsky and Ali adhere to ... imbricated in such interests. 

  
  
  

2AC - Add-Ons

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• Soft Power

  The plan is key to US Soft Power
  Zarate and Gordon 11 (Juan, Senior Adviser @ CSIS and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, and David, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, The Battle for Reform with al-Qaeda, http://www.twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Zarate_Gordon.pdf)
  Admittedly, in many quarters, ...end of the long war.

  Soft power builds effective coalitions that solves terrorism, disease, environment, and WMD war
  Reiss 8 (Mitchell B., Vice Provost of International Affairs – College of William & Mary, “Restoring America's Image: What the Next President Can Do”, Survival, October, 50(5))
  But first, there is another ... enhance peace and security. 

  Soft power key to climate change- consensus, cooperation
  Alex Stark, Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Research Intern, 8-16-2010 http://www.cnas.org/blogs/naturalsecurity/2010/08/weekends-news-challenges-and-opportunities-us-soft-power.html
  I know you've probably...leverage in the future.

  
  
  

1AR - Language Kritik

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• The word fuck connotes a masculine aggressive subject and a passive feminine object.
  Feministing 09 (Online community for feminist thinkers, “Fuck That!,” http://community.feministing.com/2009/05/fuck-that.html, Sydnor)
  When we use fuck ... other persuasive activities.

  Falk and Mills 96 (Erika and Jordan, PhD at U Penn / Grad from San Diego comm. Department at San Diego and champion Fish Fighter, “Why Sexist Language Affects Persuasion,” Women and Language, Vol 19, Questia, Sydnor)
  The final implication of ... at people of their gender.

  
  
  

1AC - Governance - Drones

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• Plan
  Text: The United States federal government should substantially increase its support for the governance of local councils in Yemen. 

  1AC – Solvency

  USAID local capacity assistance is underfunded and not perceived as a credible model because of lack of commitment
  Bodine 10 (Barbara, Lecturer and Diplomat-in-Residence at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, "Yemen: Primer and Prescriptions," Prism, National Defense University Press, June, http://www.ndu.edu/press/yemen.html)
  The 2010–2012 USAID ….. to and should not seek to reinvent. 

  AQAP is making advancements in Yemen to plan terrorist attacks – countering them is key to collapse of AQ
  Herridge 9-14 (Catherine, National Correspondent, "Al Qaeda in Yemen Taking Advantage of 'Arab Spring' Fallout," Fox News, www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/09/14/al-qaeda-in-yemen-taking-advantage-arab-spring-fallout/)
  Al Qaeda in Yemen is …. AQAP leaders in Yemen.”

  AQAP is on the verge of taking over the Southern Provinces – immediate action is key to prevent a terrorist attack
  Zimmerman 11 (Katherine, "Al Qaeda's Gains in South Yemen," American Enterprise Institute, July 8, Zihttp://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/al-qaedas-gains-south-yemen-july-8-2011)
  Islamist militant …. emirate in south Yemen.

  AQAP is planning terrorist attacks – they will be successful
  Boucek 11 (Christopher, Associate of the Middle East Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,  "Alarming Reality in Yemen," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, The Hill, March 9, http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=42938)
  Because of the …. needing to travel abroad. 

  Drones are key to decapitating AQAP but lack sufficient intelligence of local terrain
  Sharp 11 (Jeremy, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, "Yemen: Background and US Relations," Congressional Research, March 22, fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/159782.pdf)
  Nevertheless, almost all of AQAP’s key leaders (mentioned above) are alive and most likely still able to plan and conduct terrorist attacks, albeit at greater risk due to heightened U.S.-Yemeni security cooperation. According to Al Qaeda expert Thomas Hegghammer:
  Awlaki is most likely part …. need for more Yemeni counterterrorism cooperation against AQAP.
  Drones are the only option – gathering co-ordinated and stream-lined intelligence is key to success
  Ciluffo and Watts 11 (Frank and Clinton, Director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at the George Washington University and principal consultant PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland SEcurity Policy Institute, "Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity," Homeland Security Policy Institute, June 24,  www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm)
  Light-footprint drone and special …. will bring an end to U.S. engagements. 

  Only intelligence solves – finds where leadership is hiding
  De Luce – September 14
  (Dan, AFP, “Al-Qaeda vulnerable but Yemen branch growing threat: US” http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iFuzzyHLEV9lqSkUWmkPWax1sXGA?docId=CNG.06fb0ad621478ff19c556b04cda1bb52.21)

  WASHINGTON — Al-Qaeda's core leadership …. $80 billion for fiscal year 2010.
  AQAP is key to all Al-Qaeda operations – targeted decapitation prevents attacks
  Ciluffo and Watts 11 (Frank and Clinton, Director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at the George Washington University and principal consultant PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland SEcurity Policy Institute, "Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity," Homeland Security Policy Institute, June 24,  www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm)
  For the U.S., AQAP’s Foreign …. international terrorism capability.

  The plan is key – it shores up US credibility and increases co-operative networks to fight AQAP
  Green 11 (Daniel, Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, "The American Moment in Yemen," Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/)
  It is becoming increasingly ….them more representative.
  Decentralized governance assistance is key to gaining local knowledge to end AQAP
  Green 11 (Daniel, Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute, "The al-Qaeda Crescent in Yemen," The Washington Institute, June 22, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3374)
  Much like AQAP, the U.S. …. be able to make the crucial

  Taking out Al-Awlaki is enough – more intelligence is key
  Hegghammer 10 (Thomas, Research Fellow at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, " The case for chasing al-Awlaki," Foreign Policy, November 24, mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/11/24/the_case_for_chasing_al_awlaki)
  Awlaki is indeed not a top …. in Yemen.

  USAID governance assistance is critical to countering extremism – its incorporated into our broader COIN efforts
  Kotlow 11 (Kazimierz, Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at the Washington Institute, “Countering Extermism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/720-kotlow.pdf)
  Most sectors in Yemen, including … less personality dependent.

  1AC – Impacts

  AQAP will gain the material to initiate a nuclear terrorist attack
  Williams 11 (Sarah, Coordinator of the Fissile Materials Working Group and Herbert Scoville Jr. Peace Fellow at the Center for Science, Technology and sEcurity Policy, "After bin Laden: Nuclear terrorism still a top threat," Bulletin of Atomic Scientists - Fissile MAterials Working Group, May 13, www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/columnists/fissile-materials-working-group/after-bin-laden-nuclear-terrorism-still-top-t)
  More than a decade ago, Osama … this potential source material.

  Terrorist retaliation causes nuclear war – draws in Russia and China
  Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (“After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)
  A terrorist nuclear attack, … with a devastating response.

  Retaliation defense doesn’t apply – three reasons
  Brenner 10 (Michael, Professor of International Affairs at the University of Pittsburgh, "When do We Go To War in Yemen?" The National Journal, January 5, http://security.nationaljournal.com/2010/01/when-do-we-go-to-war-in-yemen.php#1403177)
  We appear trapped in a room … a mid-season NBA game.

  Terrorism Outweighs
  Probability and timeframe
  Kanani 11 (Rahim, Founder and Editor-in-Chief of World Affairs Commentary, "New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent," Forbes, June 29, www.forbes.com/sites/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/)
  We should be especially … put their minds to it.”

  AQAP terrorist attack collapses heg –causes retaliation and bleeding wars
  Terrill 11 (Andrew, Research Professor in National Security Affairs, "The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security," Defence Talk, February 15, Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.defencetalk.com/the-conflicts-in-yemen-and-us-national-security-32049/)
  Osama bin Laden and the al-…activities in Yemen and the Middle East.

  AQAP retaliation causes overstretch and collapses the military – not enough resources
  Lynch 10 (Marc, Associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, "Don't lose perspective on Ymen," Foreign Policy, January 2, http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/01/02/bad_ideas_on_yemen)
  Direct American military … extremely complex environment.

  Pre-eminence prevents the escalation of all conflicts – withdrawal makes their outbreak more likely
  Kagan 11 (Robert, contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, "The Price of Power," The Weekly Standard, Volume 16, Number 18, January 24, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?nopager=1)
  Today the international situation is also one of high risk.
  • The terrorists who would …, can prove so unfortunate?

  2 internal links to extinction – attack happens before the election, attacks on Israel or India
  Malone 11 (David, Nonprofit Defense-Consulting Organizer, "Future Attacks on America? Al Qaeda’s Next October Surprise," BlPlan, http://www.binladensplan.com/Future_Attacks_on_US.html)
  Al Qaeda's 2008 surge … and time-scaled terrorism. 

  Nuclear terrorism causes global nuclear escalation – national retaliation goes global
  Morgan 9 (Dennis Ray, Professor of Foreign Studies at Hankuk University, “World on Fire: Two Scenarios of the Destruction of Human Civilization and Possible Extinction of the Human Race,” Futures, Vol. 41, Issue 10, p683-693, ScienceDirect)
  In a remarkable website … and fragile ecosphere as well.
   

  
  
  

1AC - Governance - Basing

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• 1AC – Plan

  Text: The United States federal government should substantially increase its support for the capacity and oversight of local government institutions in Yemen.

  1AC – Solvency

  The plan is key to demonstrating a new relationship with the Yemeni people – solves anti-Americanism

  Green 11 (Daniel, Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, "The American Moment in Yemen," Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/)
  It is becoming increasingly …. against the United States.

  Civil society assistance is key to US credibility in Yemen
  Dorsey 11 (James, Senior Researcher at the National University of Singapore's Middle East Institute, "Yemen's Saleh plays cat and mouse with Saudis and US," Al Arabiya, May 22, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/05/22/150075.html)
  Its immediate … than hard power.

  Relations with transition government is key to keeping our counterterrorism operations based in Yemen
  Lake 11 (Eli, "Pentagon urged to find 'Plan B' for base as Yemeni crisis grows," The Washington Times, March 24, www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/mar/24/pentagon-urged-to-find-plan-b-for-base-as-yemeni-c/?page=all#pagebreak)
  The Pentagon is … take power in Sanaa.”

  Decentralized governance assistance is key to gaining local knowledge to end AQAP
  Green 11 (Daniel, Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute, "The al-Qaeda Crescent in Yemen," The Washington Institute, June 22, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3374)
  Much like AQAP, the … planning on the United States. 

  USAID governance assistance is critical to countering extremism – its incorporated into our broader COIN efforts
  Kotlow 11 (Kazimierz, Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at the Washington Institute, “Countering Extermism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/720-kotlow.pdf)
  Most sectors in Yemen, …personality dependent.
   

  Contention 2 – Terrorism

  
  AQAP is planning terrorist attacks – they will be successful
  Boucek 11 (Christopher, Associate of the Middle East Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,  "Alarming Reality in Yemen," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, The Hill, March 9, http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=42938)
  Because of the government’s … needing to travel abroad. 

  Drones are key to decapitating AQAP but lack sufficient intelligence of local terrain
  Sharp 11 (Jeremy, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, "Yemen: Background and US Relations," Congressional Research, March 22, fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/159782.pdf)
  Nevertheless, almost all of … cooperation against AQAP.

  AQAP is key to all Al-Qaeda operations – targeted decapitation prevents attacks
  Ciluffo and Watts 11 (Frank and Clinton, Director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at the George Washington University and principal consultant PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland SEcurity Policy Institute, "Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity," Homeland Security Policy Institute, June 24,  www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm)
  For the U.S., AQAP’s … international terrorism capability.

  AQAP is on the verge of taking over the Southern Provinces – immediate action is key to prevent a terrorist attack
  Zimmerman 11 (Katherine, "Al Qaeda's Gains in South Yemen," American Enterprise Institute, July 8, Zihttp://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/al-qaedas-gains-south-yemen-july-8-2011)
  Islamist militant groups … emirate in south Yemen.
  Attacks on Saudi oil facilities collapse the global economy
  Gartenstein-Ross 11 (Daveed, Directs the Center for the Study of Terrorist Radicalization at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, "Osama's Oil Obsession," Foreign Policy, May 23, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/23/osamas_oil_obsession)
  Bin Laden long believed … they didn't think about."

  Continued economic decline will result in global war.
  Mead 9 (Walter Russell Mead, Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. The New Republic, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2)JFS
  So far, such half-… we may still have to fight.

  Economic decline causes war – studies prove
  Royal 10 (Jedediah, Director Cooperative Threat Reduction DOD “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises” in ‘Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives’ ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)
  Less intuitive is how periods … deserves more attention.

  1AC – Navy

  Advantage 2: Navy
  Counter-terrorism co-operation in Yemen gives the US control over the Indian ocean
  Bhadrakumar 10 (M.K., Career Diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service with Experience in the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey, "Controlling Yemen Is Just Part of Obama's Power Game With China, Asia Times, January 11, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LA09Ak02.html)
  Is Obama so incredibly forgetful of … This serves many purposes.
  Counter-terrorism cooperation is key to securing a naval base on the Island of Socotra – ensures global naval power projection
  Chussudovsky 10 (Michael, Professor of Economics at the University of Ottowa and Director of the Centrefor Research on Globalization, "Yemen and the Militarization of Strategic Waterways: Securing US Control over Socotra Island and the Gulf of Aden," Centre for Global Research, February 7, www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17460)
  The Yemeni archipelago of … decided in these waters.

  Pre-eminence prevents the escalation of all conflicts – withdrawal makes their outbreak more likely
  Kagan 11 (Robert, contributing editor to The Weekly Standard and a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, "The Price of Power," The Weekly Standard, Volume 16, Number 18, January 24, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533696.html?nopager=1)
  Today the international situation …, can prove so unfortunate?

  Independently, Naval power solves global WMD conflicts
  Peele ’97 (Reynolds B., Lieutenant, USMC, The Importance of Maritime Chokepoints, Parameters, Summer)
  There are presently six … interests can be protected.

  Only the US Navy can stabilize naval competition between India and China
  Kaplan 9 (Robert, National Correspondant for the Atlantic and Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, "Center Stage for the 21st Century: Power Plays in the Indian Ocean," Foreign Affairs, March/Apirl, www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64832/robert-d-kaplan/center-stage-for-the-21st-century)
  Yet, all of these activities … to make itself continually useful.
  India-China naval competition goes nuclear
  Nazemroaya 9 (Mahdi Darius, Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization specializing in geopolitics and strategic issues, "Geo-Strategic Chessboard: War Between India and China?" Centre for Research on Globalization, October 17, www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=7453)
  The Naval build-up in the Indian Ocean and the Geo-Politics of the Sri Lankan Civil War
  To the southern borders of Eurasia …, led by the United States.
  Goes global – draws in the west
  Kahn 9 (Jeremy, "Why India Fears China," The Daily Beast, October 9, www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2009/10/09/why-india-fears-china.html)
  The implications for India's security—…. separate the two sides.

  Assistance is key – it’s a bargaining chip for co-operation
  Washington Post 11 ("Yemen's future after Saleh worries US officials," June 5, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/yemens-future-after-saleh-worries-us-officials/2011/06/05/AGyAvmJH_story_1.html)
  While Saudi Arabia, with U.S. … something about AQAP.”

  Counterterrorism co-operation creates dependence – results in basing
  Ommani 10 (Ardeshir, Political Economist and President of the American Iranian Fellowship, "Imperialism's Role in Yemen," Mathaba, June 10, www.mathaba.net/news/?x=627061)
  This presentation consists of … more than 1100 miles.

  
  
  

2AC - EU Counterplan - Intelligence Sharing

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• The EU won’t support counterterrorism operations
  Pleschinger 6 (Stefanie, Graduate of the International Relations Masters Program at Yale, “Allied Against Terror: Transatlantic Intelligence Cooperation,” Yale Journal, Fall/Winter,  yalejournal.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/062106pleschinger.pdf)
  Disagreements between EU ...global fight against terrorism.29

  The United States won't accept EU intel
  Pleschinger 6 (Stefanie, Graduate of the International Relations Masters Program at Yale, “Allied Against Terror: Transatlantic Intelligence Cooperation,” Yale Journal, Fall/Winter,  yalejournal.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/062106pleschinger.pdf)
  The perceived lack of strategic ... conform to its interests.

  Too many barriers to effective intel sharing
  Reveron 6 (Derek, Associate Professor at the Naval War College, "Old Allies, New Friends: Intelligence-Sharing in the War on Terror," Volume 50, Issue 3, Summer 2006, Pages 453-468, derekreveron.com/Documents/su04-reveron.pdf)
  While sharing has its benefits, the … technological barriers.

  
  
  

2AC - Politics - Tax Speech Thumpers

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• It’ll be a fight, and set up more fights over the supercommittee
  MSNBC – September 19
  (“Obama proposes $1.5 trillion in new taxes”, http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/44578820/ns/today-today_news/t/obama-proposes-trillion-new-taxes/)
  President Barack Obama, setting … lawmakers to aim even bigger.

  Republicans are lining up to oppose the tax hikes.

  MSNBC – September 19
  (“Obama proposes $1.5 trillion in new taxes”, http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/44578820/ns/today-today_news/t/obama-proposes-trillion-new-taxes/)
  The deficit reduction … hamper economic growth. 

  Comes before SKFTA
  Kim, 9-6-11 (Senior partner specializing in international trade at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP in Washington, D.C. (9/6/2011, Sukhan, Joins.com, “Pushing the FTA to the finish line,” Factiva. http://koreajoongangdaily.joinsmsn.com/news/article/Article.aspx?aid=2941157)
  President Obama … issue in the country.

  Solyndra thumps the DA
  The Hill 9-18-11
  Political fury over a … President Obama. 

  Obama isn’t using PC on SKFTA
  Senator Roberts 9-14-11
  It is long overdue time … Mr. President.

  
  
  

1AC - Military Police Training

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• 1AC – Plan

  Text: The United States Department of Defense should substantially increase its support for community-based policing in Yemen.

  1AC – AQAP

  AQAP is on the verge of taking over the Southern Provinces – immediate action is key to prevent a terrorist attack
  Zimmerman 11 (Katherine, "Al Qaeda's Gains in South Yemen," American Enterprise Institute, July 8, Zihttp://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/al-qaedas-gains-south-yemen-july-8-2011)
  Islamist militant groups took …. emirate in south Yemen.

  AQAP is planning terrorist attacks – they will be successful
  Boucek 11 (Christopher, Associate of the Middle East Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,  "Alarming Reality in Yemen," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, The Hill, March 9, http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=42938)
  Because of the … needing to travel abroad. 

  Decapitating the leadership is key to preventing terrorist attacks
  Ciluffo and Watts 11 (Frank and Clinton, Director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at the George Washington University and principal consultant PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland SEcurity Policy Institute, "Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity," Homeland Security Policy Institute, June 24,  www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm)
  For the U.S., AQAP’s Foreign … international terrorism capability.

  Status quo efforts will fail because they lack sufficient intelligence
  Barfi 10 (Barak, Independent Analyst who has worked with ABC News Affiliates in the Middle East, "How attacking AQAP influenced its strategy," NATO Review, www.nato.int/docu/review/2010/Yemen/Yemen_AQAP/EN/)
  AQAP’s ability to survive the … reliable local intelligence assets.
  Law enforcement solves AQAP – funding, partnerships and empirics
  Knoetgen 11 (Peter, "Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil," Central European Journal of International and Security Studies," May 16, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil)
  Like most terror organisations, …“success” that airstrikes would.
  Law-enforcement is key to intelligence gathering and disrupting networks of support
  Jones and Libicki 8 (Seth. and MArtin, adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Senior Management Scientist at RAND, " How Terrorist Groups End: Implications for Countering al Qa'ida," RAND Corporation,  http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9351/index1.html)
  Policing can be an … operation of terrorist groups.51
  Having the military provide civilian police training is key – intelligence gathering and legitimacy
  Keller 10 (Dennis, "US Military Forces and Police Assistance in Stability Operations: The Least-Worst Option to Fill the US Capacity Gap," US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, August, www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA527772&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)
  Establishing an effective …, George Grivas, in Cyprus in 1955:

  The military must emphasized community-based policing – turns the population against terrorists
  Keller 10 (Dennis, "US Military Forces and Police Assistance in Stability Operations: The Least-Worst Option to Fill the US Capacity Gap," US Army War College, STrategic Studies Institute, August, www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA527772&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)
  2. Employing military personnel … creates more competent thugs.
  AQAP will acquire a nuclear weapon
  Williams 11 (Sarah, Coordinator of the Fissile Materials Working Group and Herbert Scoville Jr. Peace Fellow at the Center for Science, Technology and sEcurity Policy, "After bin Laden: Nuclear terrorism still a top threat," Bulletin of Atomic Scientists - Fissile MAterials Working Group, May 13, www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/columnists/fissile-materials-working-group/after-bin-laden-nuclear-terrorism-still-top-t)
  More than a decade ago, Osama … potential source material.
  They can build a bomb
  Joyner 9 (Christopher C., Professor of International Law at Georgetown University, “Nuclear Terrorism in a Globalizing World: Assessing the Threat and the Emerging Management Regime,” Stanford Journal of International Law, Summer, p. 218, http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Nuclear+terrorism+in+a+globalizing+world%3A+assessing+the+threat+and...-a0216486733)
  A further cause for alarm … of al-Qaeda. (72) 

  There’s fissile material in Yemen
  McVeigh 10 (Karen, "WikiLeaks cables: Yemen radioactive stocks' were easy al-Qaida target," The Guardian, December 19, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/19/wikileaks-cables-yemen-al-qaida)
  A senior government official in … go back there", he said.

  Terrorist retaliation causes nuclear war – draws in Russia and China
  Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (“After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)
  A terrorist nuclear attack, and … still meet with a devastating response.
  Yemen is the training ground for terrorism against Saudi Arabia – will attack oil facilities in Saudi Arabia
  Ulrichsen 11 (Kristian, Kuwait Research Fellow in the Kuwait Programme for Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States Centre for the Study of Global Governance at the London SChool of Economics and Political SCience, "The Geopolitics of Insecurity in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula," Middle East Policy Council, http://www.mepc.org/journal/middle-east-policy-archives/geopolitics-insecurity-horn-africa-and-arabian-peninsula?print)
  The reconstitution of AQAP in … in the Arabian Peninsula.9

  Attacks would be successful and collapse the market – centralized production and global swing reserves
  Gartenstein-Ross 11 (Daveed, Directs the Center for the Study of Terrorist Radicalization at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, "Osama's Oil Obsession," Foreign Policy, May 23, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/23/osamas_oil_obsession)
  Bin Laden long believed that … they didn't think about."

  Saudi oil production is irreplaceable – affects every indicator of the economy
  Babej 11 (Marc, foudning partner of the marketing strategy consulting firm Reason Inc, "A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption - The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario," Forbes, March 29, www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/)
  And still: in 2011, the term …. containing oil derivatives.

  Economic decline causes war – studies prove
  Royal 10 (Jedediah, Director Cooperative Threat Reduction DOD “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises” in ‘Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives’ ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)
  Less intuitive is how periods …. deserves more attention.

  Independently – oil shocks cause extinction – five reasons
  King 8 (Neil, Researcher at the Center for New American Security and Columnist at the Wall Street Journal"Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns," Center for a New American Secuirty, Energy Security Visionaries Series, July, www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf)
  Many commentators in the … for the country’s travails. 

  1AC – Modeling

  Yemen is the test-case for all of our counterinsurgency operations
  Kotlow 11 (Kazimierz, Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at the Washington Institute, “Countering Extermism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/720-kotlow.pdf)
  Extremism, especially violent …and less personality dependent.

  Increasing law enforcement assistance to Yemen is key to the success of all of our regional law enforcement efforts
  McCandless 6 (Matthew, Southeast Asian Specialist on sabbatical from the US Department of State, "Fighting Terror by Indictment: A Review of How the Yemeni Justice Sector is Facing Salafi Jihadist Violence," The Fletcher School Online Journal for issues related to Southwest Asia and Islamic Civilization, Spring, www.humansecuritygateway.com/documents/ALNAKHLAH_ReviewYemeniJusticeSectorFacingJihadistViolence.pdf)
  Launching a successful law …. key Muslim state. 

  Only military police training solves – the plan is key to institutional reform that emphasizes community-based policing
  Keller 10 (Dennis, "US Military Forces and Police Assistance in Stability Operations: The Least-Worst Option to Fill the US Capacity Gap," US Army War College, STrategic Studies Institute, August, www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA527772&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)
  Establishing an effective …. expectations must be kept realistic. 

  Specifically, the plan serves as a model that is exported to Afghanistan
  Mitchell 11 (Robert, Degrees from the University of Michigan, Harvard's China Area Program and Columbia, Foreign Service Officer with USAID, "Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency," Small Wars Journal, August 1, smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/yemen-testing-a-new-coordinated-approach-to-preventive-counterinsurgency)
  An American-designed … or significantly amended.

  Security training is the Achilles Heel in our Afghanistan strategy – reforms are key
  Johnson and Payne 10 (Andy and Scott, Director of the National Security Program and Senior Policy Advisor of the National Security Program, "Reforming Security Training to Help Defeat Terrorism," The National Security Program Defeating Terrorism Initiative, content.thirdway.org/publications/317/Third_Way_Memo_-_Reforming_Foreign_Security_Training_to_Help_Defeat_Terrorism.pdf)
  A key component of US strategy … Afghanistan if needed.
  Governance focus is key
  Heine 11 (Ben, "How to Invest in Afghanistan's Long-Term Stability," Young Professionalism in Foreign Policy, May 13, www.ypfp.org/content/how-invest-afghanistans-long-term-stability)
  Although Osama Bin Laden is dead, …, and fighting corruption (Gross).
  Only reforms spurred by the plan solves – we already provide substantial training to the ANP
  Johnson and Payne 10 (Andy and Scott, Director of the National Security Program and Senior Policy Advisor of the National Security Program, "Reforming Security Training to Help Defeat Terrorism," The National Security Program Defeating Terrorism Initiative, content.thirdway.org/publications/317/Third_Way_Memo_-_Reforming_Foreign_Security_Training_to_Help_Defeat_Terrorism.pdf)
  To date, the US has spent over … the counterterrorism mission.
  A successful ANP is key to Afghan stability
  Caldwell and Finney 11 (Lieutenant General William and Captain Nathan, Commanding General of the NATO Training Mission in Afghanistan and Strategist serving with the NATO Training Mission, "Building Police Capacity in Afghanistan: The Challenges of a Multilateral Approach," National Defense University, Prism2, No. 1,  www.ndu.edu/press/building-police-capacity-in-afghanistan.html)
  Successful counterinsurgency... stability of Afghanistan. PRISM

  Collapse of Afghanistan spills over to Pakistan and goes nuclear
  Morgan 7 (Stephen, former member of the British Labour Party National Executive Committee, Author, Political Analyst and Psychologist, "Better another Taliban Afghanistan, than a Taliban NUCLEAR Pakistan!?" YoursDaily, June 3, www.yoursdaily.com/different_views/better_another_taliban_afghanistan_than_a_taliban_nuclear_pakistan)
  However events may prove him … Russia pitted against the US

  Instability risks spillover to the entirety of Central Asia
  Lal 6 (Rollie, Political Scientist at RAND, "Central Asia and Its Asian Neighbors. Security and Commerce at the Crossroads," Rand Corporation, http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A450305&Location=U2&doc=getTRDoc.pdf)
  The Asian states neighboring … their own security interests.

  Central Asian instability is the most likely scenario for nuclear war – five reasons
  Blank 00 (Stephen J. Blank, Expert on the Soviet Bloc for the Strategic Studies Institute, 2000, “American Grand Strategy and the Transcaspian Region”, World Affairs. 9-22))
  Thus many structural … willing proxies capable of settling the situation.

  
  
  

1AC - Modeling - Multilateralism

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
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• Emphasizing law enforcement is key to reconstitute our global CT strategies
  Boyle and Scrnid 9 (Michael and Alex, “A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime,” Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the New Ideas Fund, http://www.newideasfund.org/proposals/NIF_Global%20Compact.pdf)
  One of the greatest challenges … failed to live up to expectations 

  The plan is a decisive break – institutionalizes international co-operation
  Boyle and Scrnid 9 (Michael and Alex, “A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime,” Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the New Ideas Fund, http://www.newideasfund.org/proposals/NIF_Global%20Compact.pdf)
  The Bush approach has been … counter-terrorism cooperation. .
  Counter-terror unilateralism collapses alliances and global multilateralism
  Boyle and Scrnid 9 (Michael and Alex, “A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime,” Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the New Ideas Fund, http://www.newideasfund.org/proposals/NIF_Global%20Compact.pdf)
  The war on terror has ….would have otherwise been.
  US-EU environ cooperation key to the environment
  Norman J. Vig and Michael G. Faure, professor of science, technology and society at Carleton College, Minnesota and professor of comparative and international environmental law at Maastricht U, the Netherlands, Green Giants? Environmental Policies of the United States and the European Union, 2004, p2-3
  This book stems from our concern that … policies in the future.

  Ecosystem collapse risks extinction
  Coyne and Hoekstra 7 (Jerry and Hopi, *professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolution at the University of Chicago AND Associate Professor in the Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology at Harvard University, New Republic, “The Greatest Dying,” 9/24, http://www.truthout.org/article/jerry-coyne-and-hopi-e-hoekstra-the-greatest-dying)
  But it isn't just the destruction of … greatest dying of them all.

  Multilateralism key to preventing extinction
  Dyer, ’04 (Gwynne, military historian and lecturer on international affairs, “The End of War”, Toronto Star, 12/30/2004, http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1230-05.htm, LH)
  War is deeply embedded … of the existing state system.
  Independently, multilateral terrorism cooperation  is key to the nuclear taboo- prevents nuclear war
  Bin 9 (5-22-09 About the Authors  Prof. Li Bin is a leading Chinese expert on arms control and is currently the director of Arms  Control Program at the Institute of International Studies, Tsinghua University.  He received his  Bachelor and Master Degrees in Physics from Peking University before joining China Academy  of Engineering Physics (CAEP) to pursue a doctorate in the technical aspects of arms control. He  served as a part-time assistant on arms control for the Committee of Science, Technology and  Industry for National Defense (COSTIND).Upon graduation Dr. Li entered the Institute of  Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics (IAPCM) as a research fellow and joined the  COSTIND technical group supporting Chinese negotiation team on Comprehensive Test Ban  Treaty (CTBT).  He attended the final round of CTBT negotiations as a technical advisor to the  Chinese negotiating team.      Nie Hongyi is an officer in the People’s Liberation Army with an MA from China’s National  Defense University and a Ph.D. in International Studies from Tsinghua University, which he  completed in 2009 under Prof. Li Bin, "Investigation of China - US Strategic Stability," www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/nwgs/Li-and-Nie-translation-final-5-22-09.pdf)
  The nuclear taboo is a social … danger of a nuclear war.

  Multilateralism is key to prevent pandemics
  Weber 2k7 [Steven Weber, Professor of Political Science at UC-Berkeley and Director of the Institute of International Studies, et. al., January-February 2007, Foreign Policy, “how Globalization went bad’]
  The same is true for global … can’t change that alone 

  Unchecked disease spread will cause extinction
  Yu 09 [Victoria, “Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate,” Dartmouth Journal of Undergraduate Science, May 22, http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate]
  In the past, humans have … — into a human-viable strain (10). 

  Multilateralism helps solve proliferation
  Van Diepen, 2002 (Vann, Director of Office of Chemical, Biological, and Missile Nonproliferation, “Strengthening Multilateral Nonproliferation Regimes”
  http://www.fas.org/asmp/resources/govern/Strengthening%20Multilateral%20Nonproliferation%20Regimes.htm)
  As part of our overall … compliance with these treaties

  Prolif causes nuclear war
  ICNND 2009 (International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, chaired by Gareth Evans and Yoriko Kawaguchi, Eliminating Nuclear Threats, http://www.icnnd.org/reference/reports/ent/pdf/ICNND_Report-EliminatingNuclearThreats.pdf)
  3.1 Ensuring that no … and cross-cutting sources of conflict.

  
  
  

1AC - Modeling - South Asia

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
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• Co-operative law enforcement assistance is key to successful Indo-Pak policing initiatives
  Millar 9 (Alistair, Director of the Center on global Counterterrorism Cooperation, "Developing Regional Counterterrorism Cooperation in South Asia," CTC Sentinel, December, Vol. 2, Issue 12, www.globalct.org/images/content/pdf/articles/CTCSentinel_Vol2Iss12_AM.pdf)
  For the Obama administration ...monitory and stifle terrorist activity.

  Successful counterterrorism co-operation is key to prevent an Indo-Pak war
  Rosand et al 9 (Eric [Naureen Fink and Jason Ipe], Co-Director of the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation, Senior Program Officer at the International Peace Instittute, Senior Analyst for the Center on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation, "Countering Terrorism in South Asia: Strengthening Multilateral Engagement," Center for Global Counterterrorism Cooperation, MAy, www.globalct.org/images/content/pdf/reports/south_asia.pdf)
  Terrorism and political ...threat over the long term.

  The impact is extinction – nuclear winter
  Robock and Toon 10 ( Alan and Brian professor of climatology in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University and the associate director of its Center for Environmental Prediction. Prof. Robock has been a researcher in the area of climate change for more than 30 years.. His current research focuses on soil moisture variations, the effects of volcanic eruptions on climate, effects of nuclear war on climate, and regional atmosphere/hydrology modeling. He has served as Editor of climate journals, including the Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology and the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. He has published more than 250 articles on his research, including more than 150 peer-reviewed papers and Owen Brian Toon is professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and a fellow at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) at the University of Colorado.[1] He received his Ph.D. from Cornell University – From the January 20 10 Scientific American Magazine – http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=local-nuclear-war]
  Nuclear bombs dropped on....any rational manner.

  
  
  

2AC - Race 6 Add ons

• Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 6 | Opponent: Georgia | Judge:
  
  
• 
  
• 
  
  

1AC - Modeling - Africa

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• Yemen is the test-case for all of our counterinsurgency operations
  Kotlow 11 (Kazimierz, Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at the Washington Institute, “Countering Extermism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/720-kotlow.pdf)
  Extremism, especially violent extremism…ess personality dependent.
  
  
  
  Our approach in Yemen is the litmus-test of future counter-terrorism strategy – the time is right for a strategy shift
  Cilluffo and Watts 11 [Frank,  the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University and Clinton Watts is a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute. He is a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI., Homeland Security Policy Institute, “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity”, June 24, 2011, http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm]
  Debates over the legality … an inevitable attack from AQAP.
  
  Yemen will be the model going forward – experts agree
  Baldor 10 (Lolita, Associated Press, “US terror training in Yemen reflects wider program,” Seattle Times, September 8, http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2012835332_apususterrorismtraining.html)
  At stake is the stability of a troubled… that does not ebb and flow as terror incidents with a Yemen tie occur.
  
  The status quo hasn’t emphasized democratic policing in its police training programs

  Downie and Cooke 11 (Richard and Jennifer, fellow and deputy director of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and Director of the CSIS Africa Program,  "A More Strategic US Approach to Police Reform in Africa," Center for Strategic and International Studies, April,  http://csis.org/files/publication/110414_Downie_PolicyReformAfrica_Web.pdf)
  'These differences of interpretation play … democratic development approaches.
   

  The plan is key to establish the State Department as the lead Agency

  Downie and Cooke 11 (Richard and Jennifer, fellow and deputy director of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and Director of the CSIS Africa Program,  "A More Strategic US Approach to Police Reform in Africa," Center for Strategic and International Studies, April,  http://csis.org/files/publication/110414_Downie_PolicyReformAfrica_Web.pdf)
  Establish empowered …dependence on contractors.
  
  Reforming police assistance to Africa is key to its stability and economy

  Downie and Cooke 11 (Richard and Jennifer, fellow and deputy director of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and Director of the CSIS Africa Program,  "A More Strategic US Approach to Police Reform in Africa," Center for Strategic and International Studies, April,  http://csis.org/files/publication/110414_Downie_PolicyReformAfrica_Web.pdf)
  The police are one of … environment where people can thrive.
  
  Only the plan solves

  Downie and Cooke 11 (Richard and Jennifer, fellow and deputy director of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and Director of the CSIS Africa Program,  "A More Strategic US Approach to Police Reform in Africa," Center for Strategic and International Studies, April,  http://csis.org/files/publication/110414_Downie_PolicyReformAfrica_Web.pdf)
  The administration should make the …, or with police institutions themselves.
   

  Norms are key – helping with capabilities isn’t enough

  Downie and Cooke 11 (Richard and Jennifer, fellow and deputy director of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and Director of the CSIS Africa Program,  "A More Strategic US Approach to Police Reform in Africa," Center for Strategic and International Studies, April,  http://csis.org/files/publication/110414_Downie_PolicyReformAfrica_Web.pdf)
  Issues like the ones highlighted above … high-impact returns.
  
  And, African stability is more important than ever – the war on terror, growing oil imports and competition with China guarantee US intervention in conflicts
  Lawson 7(Letitia, Senior Lecturer in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, where she has been teaching African studies since 1996. “U.S. Africa Policy Since the Cold War,” Strategic Insights, Volume VI, Issue 1 (January 2007) http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/2007/Jan/lawsonJan07.asp)
  Longer-term U.S. engagement with … overcome the drift and steer a new course.

   Escalates to WMD
  Lancaster 00 [Carol, Associate Professor and Director of the Master's of Science in Foreign Service program at Georgetown University, Foreign Affairs, October, 2000)]
  THE MOST BASIC CHALLENGE … prove more dangerous than ever.
  
  This escalates to nuclear war
  Deutsch 2 (Jeffrey, Jeffrey Deutsch, founder of the Rabid Tiger Project, a political risk consulting and related research firm, 11-18, http://www.rabidtigers.com/rtn/newsletterv2n9.html)
  The Rabid Tiger Project believes … waters, and some people love to go fishing.

  
  
  

1AC - Modeling - Southeast Asia

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• Yemen is the test-case for all of our counterinsurgency operations

  Kotlow 11 (Kazimierz, Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at the Washington Institute, “Countering Extermism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/720-kotlow.pdf)
  Extremism, especially violent … and less personality dependent.
  
  Our approach in Yemen is the litmus-test of future counter-terrorism strategy – the time is right for a strategy shift
  Cilluffo and Watts 11 [Frank,  the director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University and Clinton Watts is a principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at the Homeland Security Policy Institute. He is a former U.S. Army Officer and former Special Agent with the FBI., Homeland Security Policy Institute, “Yemen & Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting a Window of Counterterrorism Opportunity”, June 24, 2011, http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief203_yemenAQAP.cfm]
  Debates over the legality of …inevitable attack from AQAP.
  
  Yemen will be the model going forward – experts agree

  Baldor 10 (Lolita, Associated Press, “US terror training in Yemen reflects wider program,” Seattle Times, September 8, http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2012835332_apususterrorismtraining.html)
  At stake is the stability of a troubled, …. incidents with a Yemen tie occur.
  
  Increasing law enforcement assistance to Yemen is key to the success of all of our regional law enforcement efforts
  McCandless 6 (Matthew, Southeast Asian Specialist on sabbatical from the US Department of State, "Fighting Terror by Indictment: A Review of How the Yemeni Justice Sector is Facing Salafi Jihadist Violence," The Fletcher School Online Journal for issues related to Southwest Asia and Islamic Civilization, Spring, www.humansecuritygateway.com/documents/ALNAKHLAH_ReviewYemeniJusticeSectorFacingJihadistViolence.pdf)
  Launching a successful …. interests in this key Muslim state.
   
  Shifting strategies is critical to engaging Malaysia and Indonesia – absent a law enforcement focus they refuse to cooperate with us
  Comer 11 (Charles "Ken" Comer, Chief, Foreign Military Sales at U.S. Department of State“The Parting of the Sulawesi Sea: U.S. Strategy and Transforming the Terrorist Transit Triangle”, March, United States Army Combined Arms Center http://usacac.army.mil/cac2/call/docs/11-23/ch_13.asp)
  The need for multilateral … the necessary resources to sustain it.
  Weak police in Southeast Asia makes piracy inevitable

  Dillon 4 (Dana, Senior Policy Analyst for Southeast Asia in the Asian STudies Center at the Heritage Foundation, "The War on Terrorism in Southeast Asia: Developing Law Enforcement," Heritage Foundation, January 2 <sub>www.heritage.org/research/reports/2004/01/the-war-on-terrorism-in-southeast-asia-developing-law-enforcement)
  The newest terrorist target may be global shipping. …. easy yet spectacular target.
  
  The plan solves attacks on the Strait of Malacca
  Garcia 4 [García, David U.S. Security Policy And Counter-Terrorism In Southeast Asia UNISCI Discussion Papers, Núm. 5, mayo-sin mes, 2004, pp. 1-12 Universidad Complutense de Madri, http://redalyc.uaemex.mx/redalyc/pdf/767/76712467003.pdf]
  U.S. counter-terrorist strategy … and the tortures scandal 15 .
  
   Indonesian terrorism is the key internal link to piracy in the Strait of Malacca – causes a major disruption of Asian trade
  Kay 5 (Fellow – Pacific Forum –  CSIS, ‘Indonesian Public Perceptions of the U.S. and Their Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy, Pacific Forum CSIS, Issues & Insights Vol.5–No.4)
  A third set of interests reflects Indonesia’s geographic position in global trade. Indonesian instability threatens international …. terrorist networks in Indonesia.”16
  
  Collapse of Asian trade causes global nuclear war</sub>

  Auslin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar AEI, “Averting Disaster” Daily Standard, American Enterprise Institute, March 6, http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.29339/pub_detail.asp)
  As they deal with a collapsing world …. the price for years to come.

  Norms are key – only assistance solves
  Dillon 4 (Dana, Senior Policy Analyst for Southeast Asia in the Asian STudies Center at the Heritage Foundation, "The War on Terrorism in Southeast Asia: Developing Law Enforcement," Heritage Foundation, January 2 <sub>www.heritage.org/research/reports/2004/01/the-war-on-terrorism-in-southeast-asia-developing-law-enforcement)
  To assist law enforcement agencies …police and related programs.11
  
  JI attack on Malacca literally halt global commerce</sub>

  Richardson 4 (Michael Senior Fellow Institute of South East Asian Studies,  “A Time Bomb for Global Trade: Maritime-related Terrorism in an Age of Weapons of Mass Destruction.” http://www.southchinasea.org/docs/Richardson,%20Time%20Bomb%20for%20Global%20Trade-ISEAS.pdf)
  Impact on Global Trade The use of either … of the European Union, to Freight Forwarders.)
  
  The impact is global nuclear war
  Panzner 8 (Michael, faculty at the New York Institute of Finance, 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and JPMorgan Chase, “Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse”, Revised and Updated Edition, p. 136-138, googlebooks)
  Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of … as the beginnings of a new world war.
  
  Democratic policing is key to Indonesia stability - solves regional stability, the environment, disease, democracy and terrorism

  Daley 3 (Matthew, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, "US Interests and Policy Priorities in Southeast Asia," The DISAM Journal, Summer, www.disam.dsca.mil/pubs/v.25_4/Daley.pdf)
  Indonesia’s status as the …terrorism and other violence.
  Asian instability leads to nuclear war and destruction of the world.

  Michael May, Engineering-Economic Systems at Stanford, Washington Quarterly, Summer 97
  The unpalatable facts, to …he civilized world devastated.
  
  Extinction

  Diner 1994 [David, Major in US Army, Winter, “THE ARMY AND THE ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT: WHO'S ENDANGERING WHOM?” Lexis]
  Biologically diverse ecosystems …. edging closer to the abyss.

  
  Unchecked disease spread will cause extinction

  Yu 09 [Victoria, “Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate,” Dartmouth Journal of Undergraduate Science, May 22, http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate]

  In the past, humans have … a human-viable strain (10). 

  
  
  

1AC - AQAP - Harvard

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• Internal Links

  AQAP has the capability and motive to launch terrorist attacks
  Boucek 11 (Christopher, Associate of the Middle East Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,  "Alarming Reality in Yemen," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, The Hill, March 9, http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=42938)
  Because of the government’s …needing to travel abroad. 

  United States intelligence of AQAP is weak despite Awlaki’s death – Wayhishi is alive and he’s the important terrorist
  Johnsen 10-10 (Gregory, former Fulbright Fellow in Yemen who works in Near Eastern Studies department at Princeton University, Former Member of the USAID conflict assessment team for Yemen, "Anwar al-Awlaki: A Dissent," bigthink.com/ideas/40600?page=3)
  First, as I argued in my op-ed, Awlaki was a … than what we know. 

  Decapitating the local leadership is key to prevent attacks – Awlaki, Khan and Asiri don’t matter
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  Defensive measures must complement …. defeat of the group.

  Only expanding the United States reach outside of Sana’a allows us to find them
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  A strategy focused on eliminating the ….engage with the Yemeni populace. 473

  Law enforcement solves AQAP – funding, partnerships and empirics
  Knoetgen 11 (Peter, "Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil," Central European Journal of International and Security Studies," May 16, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil)
  Like most terror organisations, AQAP exists …..identifiable “success” that airstrikes would.

  Law-enforcement is key to intelligence gathering and disrupting networks of support
  Jones and Libicki 8 (Seth. and MArtin, adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Senior Management Scientist at RAND, " How Terrorist Groups End: Implications for Countering al Qa'ida," RAND Corporation,  http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9351/index1.html)
  Policing can be an effective s….mes- sage and operation of terrorist groups.51

  Law-enforcement approach to AQAP gets the population on board with counter-terrorism efforts
  Rodenbeck 10 (Max, "How to Deal With Yemen," The NEw York Review of Books, November 9, http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2010/nov/09/how-deal-yemen/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+nybooks+(The+New+York+Review+of+Books)&utm_content=Google+Reader)
  This is a very good thing. Even more than …. but for their own well-being. 

  Impact - Piracy

  Status quo will allow AQAP to merge with Al-Shabaab – collapses global trade
  Yuriditsky 9-28 (Lev, Graduate Student of Middle Eastern Studies at Tel Aviv University, "Yemen's Chaos," yuriditsky.blogspot.com/2011/09/yemens-chaos-august-2011.html)
  As the situation in Yemen … protection against heavy shelling.

  AQAP is a key force multiplier for Al-Shabaab
  Zimmerman 9-20 (Katherine, "Ten Years After 9/11: Al Qaeda's Reemergence in Yemen," American Enterprise Institute Critical Threats, www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/zimmerman-qaeda-reemergence-september-20-2011)
  AQAP has significantly …. of tactics, techniques, and procedures.

  Closing down the Bab-el-Mandeb shuts down the Suez Canal
  Watkins 10 (Eric, Editor of Oil Diplomacy, “Al-Qaeda’s new oil strategy,” Oil and Gas Journal, February 15, Lexis)
  The oil and gas industry has long …. two thirds of the world's oil reserves are."

  Suez is key to global trade -
  Sterne 11 (Paul, Managing Partner at Sterne and Co, “Egypt's Second Suez Canal Crisis” Ground Report, Jaunary 30, http://www.groundreport.com/World/Second-Suez-Crisis/2933579)
  Egypt matters for …. Egypt began will look tame. 

  Independently, Suez closure causes military intervention and nuclear war
  Nazemroaya 11 (Mahdi Darius, Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization, "The Division of Egypt: Threats of US, Israeli, and NATO Military Intervention," Centre for Research on Globalization, February 7, www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=23102)
  There is also the ….. and domestic militarization.

  The impact is global nuclear war
  Panzner 8 (Michael, faculty at the New York Institute of Finance, 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and JPMorgan Chase, “Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse”, Revised and Updated Edition, p. 136-138, googlebooks)
  Continuing calls for ... societies as the beginnings of a new world war. 

  Impact - Iran Economy

  Iran involvement in Yemen Causes Saudi Arabia to dump oil prices – collapses their economy
  IBT 11 (International Business Times, "Saudi Arabia May Use Economic Clout to Squeeze Iran: Prince," June 22,http://rocktheqasbah.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/bushkissingsaudiprince.jpg?w=373&h=311 )
  Saudi Arabia may be … of Iran's oil production," the prince said.

  Iran doesn’t have the production capacity to survive Saudi oil manipulation
  Abraham 11 (Anushka, "Saudi Arabia, Iran eye boost in oil production to maximize profits," FInancial Times, August 23, http://arabiangazette.com/tables-turn-saudi-arabia-tehran-opec-meeting/)
  The escalating cold war between … than 10 million barrels per day.

  Oil manipulation collapses Iran’s economy and causes civil unrest
  Windrem 7 (Robert, Senior Investigative Producer, "NBC: Saudis waging an oil war on Iran?" MSNBC, January 26, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16772560/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/t/are-saudis-waging-oil-price-war-iran/#.Tl6kx5gptww)
  Moreover, the traders believe the Saudis are …. will be even more difficult.

  If the regime feels threatened by breakup they’ll lashout
  Ochmanek 8  (The Challenge of Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries. Rand Project Air Force. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2008/RAND_MG671.pdf)
  Hard-liners within the government and the …. for his position in power (see Box 3.1). 

  A threatened Iranian leadership could lashout and launch a nuclear strike on Isreal
  Beaver 9  (P. independent defence and security analyst Al Jazeera. Iran in arms race with Israel. August 6. http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/2009/08/200985121520362470.html) GF
  Taking each nation in turn – Israel ... fragile position as leader. 

  Impact - Backstopping

  Iran is using AQAP to spark a proxy war—will utilize them to escalate conflict with Saudi Arabia
  al-Harthi 2010(Zuhair, For the World Security Insititute, "Understanding Yemen's Troubles", http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?ots591=0c54e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24-a6a8c7060233&lng=en&id=116043)jn
  Al-Qaeda’s Role Looking at countries such as ….t be addressed by the Yemeni government. 

  Iran involvement in Yemen Causes Saudi Arabia to dump oil prices – collapses their economy
  IBT 11 (International Business Times, "Saudi Arabia May Use Economic Clout to Squeeze Iran: Prince," June 22,http://rocktheqasbah.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/bushkissingsaudiprince.jpg?w=373&h=311 )
  Saudi Arabia may be ….. all of Iran's oil production," the prince said.

  Oil prices are high now  because of the Arab Spring  – that causes a successful transition to renewables
  NAFTC 3-23-2011;  National Alternative Fuels Training Consortium Middle East Instability and Oil Woes: Rising Gas Prices Increase Focus on Alternative Fuels http://naftcenews.wvu.edu/naftc_enews/2011/03/23/middle-east-instability-and-oil-woes--rising-gas-prices-increase-focus-on-alternative-fuels
  A decade ago, oil cost about $10 per barrel. …. “we’re just at the beginning of this.” 

  Renewables transition solves warming
  Douglas J. Arent et al, 11-11-2010; Alison Wise, Rachel Gelman;  Arent and Gelman, National Renewable Energy Laboratory; Wise, Ecotech Institute in Denver, CO;  “The status and prospects of renewable energy for combating global warming” Energy Economics 33 (2011) 584–593, Science Direct

  Reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (…. and lower GHG emissions. 

  Warming causes extinction
  Sify 2010 – Sydney newspaper citing Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, professor at University of Queensland and Director of the Global Change Institute, and John Bruno, associate professor of Marine Science at UNC; Sify News, “Could unbridled climate changes lead to human extinction?”, http://www.sify.com/news/could-unbridled-climate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html

  The findings of the comprehensive report: … findings were published in Science.

  Global warming is real – most recent and qualified sources key
  Muller 10-21 (Richard, professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, "The Case Against Global-Warming Skepticism," Wall Street Journal, online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204422404576594872796327348.html)
  Are you a global warming skeptic? There are plenty of …. track temperature changes. 

  
  
  

1AC - Special Forces - Harvard Semis

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• 1AC - Plan

  Plan: The United States Special Operations Command should expand its Civil Military Support Element to include support for the capacity and oversight of local government institutions in Yemen.

  1AC - AQAP

  AQAP is making gains that will allow them to launch successful terrorist attacks
  Zimmerman 11 (Katherine, Analyst and Gulf of Aden Team Lead for AEI's Critical Threats Project,  "Yemen's Loss, al-Qaeda's Gain," National Review, July 12, www.nationalreview.com/corner/271677/yemens-loss-al-qaedas-gain-katherine-zimmerman)
  The reappearance of injured …American lives to another attack.

  AQAP has the capability and motive
  Boucek 11 (Christopher, Associate of the Middle East Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,  "Alarming Reality in Yemen," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, The Hill, March 9, http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=42938)
  Because of the government’s …. without even needing to travel abroad. 

  United States intelligence of AQAP is weak despite Awlaki’s death – Wayhishi is alive and he’s the important terrorist
  Johnsen 10-10 (Gregory, former Fulbright Fellow in Yemen who works in Near Eastern Studies department at Princeton University, Former Member of the USAID conflict assessment team for Yemen, "Anwar al-Awlaki: A Dissent," bigthink.com/ideas/40600?page=3)
  First, as I argued in my op-ed, Awlaki was a … in AQAP than what we know. 

  Decapitating the local leadership is key to prevent attacks – Awlaki, Khan and Asiri don’t matter
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  Defensive measures must complement the … eventual defeat of the group.

  Only expanding the United States reach outside of Sana’a allows us to find them
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  A strategy focused on …. to engage with the Yemeni populace. 473

  The plan secures successful CT missions – partnerships and trust
  Fiack et al 10 (William [WIlliam Roberts and Timothy Sulick], Liutenants in the United States Navy, "Integrating Defense, Diplomacy and Development (3D) In the Naval Special Warfare Operator," Naval Postgraduate School, December, edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2010/Dec/10Dec_Fiack.pdf)
  A primary role for the SOCCE …foothold in any country.

  Special forces focus on democracy is key – trust, intelligence, and recruitment
  Paulhus 11 (Matthew, "Beyond Afghanistan and Pakistan: Responding to Al-Qaeda's Threat in Yemen and Africa," Countering Al-Qaeda's Ideology: Re-Assessing US Policy Ten Years After 9/11, Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies Task Force Rhttps://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/bitstream/handle/1773/16495/Task%20Force%20O%202011.pdf?sequence=1)
  Build trust with governments … addressing their own issues

  CMSE support for governance is key – recruitment, engagement and reconnaissance
  Walsh 10 (Captain Sean, Civil Affairs team leader in the Pacific Command Supporting 97th Civil Affairs Battalion, “Divorce Counseling: Civil Affairs Proponency under a New Support Paradigm,” Military Review, November-December, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0PBZ/is_6_90/ai_n57274790/)
  Described by the Army as "gun-toting diplomats," … pursuing a grievance." (4)

  1AC - Group Think

  United States strategy in Yemen is entirely based around kinetic actions – we’re using drones at the expense of other efforts
  Johnsen 11 (Gregory, PhD Candidate in Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, "Drones Instead of Strategy" Waq al-Waq, July 21, bigthink.com/ideas/39394)
  Now, contrary to what some …e individuals were easily replaced by new recruits.

  This is indicative of a broader military group-think – strategists overly emphasize combat operations
  Howard 4 (Major James R., Major in the British Army, “Preparing for War, Stumbling to Peace: Planning for Post-conflict Operations in Iraq,” School of Advanced Military Studies at the United States Army Command and General Staff College,. smallwarsjournal.com/documents/howard.pdf)
  The new doctrine of Rapid, …. operations with disdain.80

  Yemen’s key- the approach will be the model
  Mitchell 11 (Robert, Degrees from the University of Michigan, Harvard's China Area Program and Columbia, Foreign Service Officer with USAID, "Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency," Small Wars Journal, August 1, smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/yemen-testing-a-new-coordinated-approach-to-preventive-counterinsurgency)
  An American-designed … ted or significantly amended.
   

  Increasing Civil-Military support elements is key to solidify the whole-of-government approach to our global COIN efforts
  Kotlow 11 (Kazimierz, Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at the Washington Institute, “Countering Extermism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/720-kotlow.pdf)
  Extremism, especially violent extremism, … systemic and less personality dependent.

   

  Military group-think causes World War III – triggers every conflict scenario
  Chussudovsky 10 (Michel, Professor of Economics at the University of Ottowa and Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization, "Preparing for World War III, Targeting Iran," centre for Research on Globalization, August 1, www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?aid=20403&context=va)
  Humanity is at a dangerous … - allies to trigger regional wars. 

  Empirics prove group-think ensures crisis escalation – eight reasons
  Schneider 3 (Barry, Director of the US Air Force Counterproliferation Center, "Deterring International Rivals from War and Escalation," Know Thy Enemy: Profiles of Adversary Leaders and their Strategic Cultures," Air War Journal, July, www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cpc-pubs/know_thy_enemy/schneider.pdf)
  Decisions taken during … and morality of their decisions 

  The plan solves group think
  1) Adaptive decision-making and interagency co-ordination
  Lightsey 10 (Ross, Major Assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School's 1st Warfare Training Group, Combat Tours Include Commander of a CMSE with elements in Pakistan, Tajikstan and Yemen, "Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in Centcom," Special Warfare, May-June, Vol. 23, Issue 3, afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888)
  In ongoing irregular conflicts, the civil-military support element… image abroad and implements strategy.”4

  2) Forces military strategists to think like civilians – overcomes institutional hardening
  Shemella 6 (Paul, Program Manager for Combatting Terrorism at the Center for Civil-Military Relations at the Naval Postgraduate School, “Interagency Coordination: The Other Side of CIMIC,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 17, No. 4, December, www.ccmr.org/public/library_file_proxy.cfm/lid/5621)                                                                                                                                     
  Although CIMIC has become a term of art, … more often than constructive cooperation.

  The plan changes mindsets of decision-makers that overcomes group-think by forcing co-operation in crisis environments
  Shemella 6 (Paul, Program Manager for Combatting Terrorism at the Center for Civil-Military Relations at the Naval Postgraduate School, “Interagency Coordination: The Other Side of CIMIC,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 17, No. 4, December, www.ccmr.org/public/library_file_proxy.cfm/lid/5621)                                                                                                                                     
  Decision-makers can … governments require for success.

  
  
  

Round Reports

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• ~===== ~(% class="Underline" %)Aff: Gonzaga KM~(%%) ===== ===== ~(% class="Underline" %)Round #7 Tournament: Shirley~(%%) ===== ===== ~(% class="Underline" %)vs: Kansas KK~(%%) ===== ===== ~(% class="Underline" %)Judge: Kelly Nickel~(%%) ===== ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== ~(% class="Underline" %)Plan Text~(%%) ====== ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== ~(% class="Underline" %)1ac Advantages~(%%) ====== ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" %)AQAP – Indo/Pak, LNG ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" %)Credibility ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== ~(% class="Underline" %)2ac Offense~(%%) ====== ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== ~(% class="Underline" %)1ar Strategy~(%%) ====== ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== ~(% class="Underline" %)2ar Strategy~(%%) ====== ===== ~(% class="Underline" %)Went for Case outweighs and the Permutation against the K~(%%) ===== ===== ~(% class="Underline" %)AFf: Gonzaga KM~(%%) ===== ===== ~(% class="Underline" %)Round # 5 Tournament:~(%%) ===== ===== ~(% class="Underline" %)Vs Team: Whitman HZ~(%%) ===== ===== ~(% class="Underline" %)Judge: Adam Symonds~(%%) ===== ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== ~(% class="Underline" %)Plan Text –~(%%) ====== ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) Yemen- wiki ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== ~(% class="Underline" %)1ac Advantages~(%%) ====== ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) Multilat – nuclear taboo, stability, prolif ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) AQAP – terrorism, Pakistan retaliation, India Pakistan nuclear war, ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== ~(% class="Underline" %)2ac Offense~(%%) ====== ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) AQAP oil stability impact ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) Saudi Oil shocks add-on ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== ~(% class="Underline" %)1ar Strategy~(%%) ====== ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) Case outweigh ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) Plan is covert = no link ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ====== ~(% class="Underline" %)2ar Strategy~(%%) ====== ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) Case outweigh ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) Plan is covert = no link ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) Dropped Saudi oil add on outweighs ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) == ~(% class="Underline" %)Aff: Gonzaga KM~(%%) == == ~(% class="Underline" %)Round #1 Tournament: Shirley~(%%) == == ~(% class="Underline" %)vs: Liberty TW~(%%) == == ~(% class="Underline" %)Judge:Cameron Norris~(%%) == ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) === ~(% class="Underline" %)Plan Text~(%%) === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" %)The United States operations command should expand its civil military support element to include support for the capacity and oversight of local government institutions in Yemen. ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) === ~(% class="Underline" %)1ac Advantages~(%%) === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" %)On the caselist ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" %)AQAP~~-~~~-~->Suez canal impact (protectionism) ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" %)Group think~~-~~-~~-~~->nuke war ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) === ~(% class="Underline" %)2ac Offense~(%%) === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" %)3 terrorism add ons: ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" %)1)retaliation ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" %)2)Israel~~-~~~-~->Samson option ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" %)3)Heg ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) === ~(% class="Underline" %)1ar Strategy~(%%) === ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" %)n/a ~(% class="MsoNormal" %) ~(% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) === ~(% class="Underline" %)2ar Strategy~(%%) === == ~(% class="Underline" %)n/a~(%%) ==

  
  
• 
  
  

1AC - Youth Movement - Shirley

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• Text: The United States federal government should substantially increase its political party support for the Yemeni Youth Movement.

  1AC – AQAP

  The United States is playing Whack-a-Mole with AQAP – we haven’t supplemented CT efforts with engagement
  Gude and Sofer 9-23 (Ken and Ken, Managing Director for National Security and Special Assistant at the Center for American Progress, "Whack-A-Mole in Yemen," Center for American Progress, www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/09/whack_a_mole.html)
  Though it failed to prevent …slides further into disintegration.

  AQAP is getting stronger – the status quo’s targeted killing approach fails
  Kagan 9-30 (Frederick, "Targeted Killings Can't be Total Strategy to Defeat Al Qaeda," American Enterprise Institute Critical Threats, www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/kagan-awlaki-targeted-killings-september-30-2011)
  The U.S. is pursuing … network than we have yet done.

  AQAP has the capability and motive to successfully initiate an attack
  Boucek 11 (Christopher, Associate of the Middle East Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,  "Alarming Reality in Yemen," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, The Hill, March 9, http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=42938)
  Because of the government’s inability … needing to travel abroad. 

  Now is key to reorient our counter-terrorism policies in Yemen
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  As Washington braces for … with policy recommendations.

  The plan is key to resolve US perception in Yemen – prevents a Yemeni safe haven
  Green 11 (Daniel, Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, "The American Moment in Yemen," Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/)
  If the United States …. against the United States.

  Support of transition movements is key
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  If local dynamics are not …resiliency and organizational weaknesses.

  AQAP kills investment in Yemeni LNG
  Richardson 11 (Darren L, Liutenant Colonel in the United States Marine Corps, 3/23, “Al Qaida and Yemen – Is Our Current Policy Good Enough?”, http://dodreports.com/pdf/ada543700.pdf)
  A secure environment … are being threatened by AQAP.

  Yemen is key to securing global LNG supplies – reserves, infrastructure and location
  Dahan 11 (Faculty of Business  Ajman University of S&T, May,  http://wbiaus.org/11.Ali%20Dahan.pdf)]
  The increase in LNG … potential gas exporters in the region. 

  Natural gas shortages are inevitable – Yemen is key to offsetting – it’s the only country with infrastructure
  Plastemart 9 (“Shortages of natural gas in the Middle East could impact new petrochemical projects,” October 29, , http://www.plastemart.com/upload/Literature/Shortage-natural-gas-in-Middle-East-new-petrochemical-projects.asp)
  Increased domestic gas … and production activity.

  Natural gas shortages causes methane-hydrate gathering – extinction
  Heinberg 4 (Richard, Award-Winning Author and Core Faculty Member of New College of California, “Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World,” pp.122-4)
  Methane hydrates …another similarly stark awakening.

  Independently, natural gas shortages cause billions to die
  Darley 5 (Julian, British Environmentalist, "High Noon for Natural Gas," billtotten.blogspot.com/2005/03/high-noon-for-natural-gas.html)
  While natural gas is becoming ever … of the soil and its related systems.

  AQAP is gearing up for major attacks in India – they’ll be successful
  Roychowdhury11.(General, Shankar Roychowdhury is a former Chief of Army Staff and a former member of Parliament, “India needs a 360° terror appraisal”, September 6 _{Deccan Chronicle, http://www.deccanchronicle.com/editorial/dc-comment/india-needs-360%C2%B0-terror-appraisal-659)
  In this context, Al Qaeda and its … well and exercise the requisite caution.} 

  India will retaliate by invading Pakistan – Abbottabad set a precedent
  Riedel 11 (Bruce, “New Delhi's Abbottabad Mission”, June 22, 2011, National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/new-delhis-abbottabad-mission-5508)
  President Obama was right and … the ground rules on May 2, 2011. 

  This scenario ensures escalation to nuclear war
  Zarate 11 (Juan,  “An alarming South Asia powder keg”, Washington Post, February 18,  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/18/AR2011021805662.html)
  In 1914, a terrorist assassinated … threat we face from terrorism. 

  India Pakistan nuclear escalation is the most probable – next few years are key to prevent failure of deterrence
  Ricks 11 (Thomas, Senior fellow, Center for a New American Security, a bipartisan think tank that studies national security issues * Contributing editor, Foreign Policy magazine * Special military correspondent, the Washington Post * Author, Fiasco and The Gamble, about Iraq Graduated from Yale in 1977.  The most likely apocalypse in our future: An Indian-Pakistani nuclear exchange)
  The point that all three panelists … next time.  This is a global problem.
   

  1AC - Credibility

  Obama made gestures in favor of the Arab spring but was inconsistent – supporting the Youth movement in Yemen is key to reorient our Arab Spring policy
  Abdullah 10-11 (Abdulkhaleq, Professor of Political Science at Emirates University, "America's Misreading of the Arab Spring will Backfire," Gulf News, gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/america-s-misreading-of-the-arab-spring-will-backfire-1.889383)
  Washington was totally taken … American policy in the region.

  Obama needs to get out in front of the transition – the window of opportunity is closing
  Stuster 9-27 (J. Dana, A Joseph S. Nye National Security Research Intern at Center for a New American Security, "What Can the US Really Do for Yemen?" The Atlantic, September 27, www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/09/what-can-the-us-really-do-for-yemen/245688/)
  After more than three months in Saudi … same table may be closing.

  The United States needs to commit to supporting the Youth movement to overcome perceptions of hypocrisy
  Sharqieh and Freer 10-9 (Ibrahim and Courtney, Deputy Director and Research Assistance at the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar,  "yemen needs action, not just talk," Philadelphia Inquirer, articles.philly.com/2011-10-09/news/30260352_1_president-saleh-ali-abdullah-saleh-regime-change)
  The recent killing in Yemen of the … responsible for the brutality

  Unconditional Obama democracy leadership key to Middle East credibility that solves war
  Guardiano 11 (John, writer and analyst who focuses on political, military, and public-policy issues, blogs at www.ResoluteCon.Com & the American Spectator, “Obama: AWOL on the Arab Spring”, March 18, http://www.frumforum.com/obama-awol-on-the-arab-spring)
  There is, after all, a …, Egypt and elsewhere. Now.

  Obama indecisiveness causes nuclear war – Israel, India-Pakistan, China
  Coes 9-30 (Ben, a former speechwriter in the George H.W. Bush administration, managed Mitt Romney’s successful campaign for Massachusetts Governor in 2002 & author, “The disease of a weak president”, The Daily Caller, http://dailycaller.com/2011/09/30/the-disease-of-a-weak-president/)
  The disease of a weak … quo is simply not an option.

  And, weak Obama risks global wars. One test of resolve will open the floodgates
  Hanson 9 (Victor, Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History @ Hoover Institution, Stanford University “Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Interview with the Oregon Patriots, Resistnet.com, December 7, 2009 at 3:52pm, pg. http://www.resistnet.com/group/oregon/forum/topics/change-weakness-disaster-obama/showLastReply.]
  Dr. Hanson: Obama is one … quite knows whom it will bite or when.

  The impact is about presidential strength – distinct from overall leadership
  Bolton 9 (John, Senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, Former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations “The danger of Obama's dithering,” Los Angeles Times, October 18, 2009, pg. http://articles.latimes.com/2009/oct/18/opinion/oe-bolton18)
  Weakness in American … in the real world, not a virtual one."
   

  1AC – Solvency

  Political party support ensures the success of the Yemeni Youth movement
  Al-Akhali 11 (Rafat, Youth Activist and Co-founder of Resonate! Yemen initiative - Youth initiative that aims to bring the voices and ideas of Young Yemenis to Yemen's public policy discourse and support youth action initiatives, "Youth in Post-Revolution Yemen: A View from the ground," Muftah, June 30, muftah.org/?p=1148)
  Given these realities, there … and accuracy of these elections.

  Only support that is unconditional and certain solves
  King 11 (James, Specialist in Yemen and the broader Middle East, former Fulbright fellow in Jordan, holds an MA in Islamic Studies from Columbia University, conducted research on Yemen's Zaydi coummunity through the American Institute for Yemeni Studies, "The end for President Salih in Yemen," The Hill, March 21, thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/151101-the-end-for-president-salih-in-yemen)
  On February 2nd, I wrote in The Hill that …. only thrives in closed societies.”

  Supporting the opposition drives Saleh out of power and ends AQAP
  Foust 11 (Joshua, fellow at the American Security Project, "How the US Can Best Help Yemen," The Atlantic, March 3, www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/03/how-the-us-can-best-help-yemen/71960/)
  U.S. engagement in ….an urgent security priority.

  Soft pressure is enough on Saleh solves – recruitment and co-operation
  Saadi 10 (Yazan, BA in Economics from Queen's University and a Masters of Arts in Globalization, Development and International Law from the School of Oriental and African Studies, working as journalist and editor of an English-Language Newspaper in Kuwait, "International Approaches to Yemen: Departing from a Security-Centered View," Muftah, December 1, muftah.org/?p=503)
  In several recent international conferences ….upport away from groups like AQAP.

  
  
  

1AC - Tribes - Shirley Doubles

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• 1AC - Plan

  Text: The United States Special Operations Command should expand its Civil Military Support Element to support local government institutions in the Marib, al-Jawf and Shabwah regions of Yemen.

  1AC – AQAP

  The United States lacks sufficient intelligence of the Marib and Al-Jawf regions in Yemen – creates an opening for extremism
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  Knowledge of al-Qa`ida’s presence … efforts, the subject of Chapter 3.

  These regions are key – three reasons
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  Al-Qa`ida in the Arabian ….sentiments are widespread.

  AQAP has the capability and motive
  Boucek 11 (Christopher, Associate of the Middle East Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,  "Alarming Reality in Yemen," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, The Hill, March 9, http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=42938)
  Because of the … even needing to travel abroad. 

  United States intelligence of AQAP is weak despite Awlaki’s death – Wayhishi is alive and he’s the important terrorist
  Johnsen 10-10 (Gregory, former Fulbright Fellow in Yemen who works in Near Eastern Studies department at Princeton University, Former Member of the USAID conflict assessment team for Yemen, "Anwar al-Awlaki: A Dissent," bigthink.com/ideas/40600?page=3)
  First, as I argued in my op-ed, Awlaki … his role in AQAP than what we know. 

  Decapitating the local leadership is key to prevent attacks – Awlaki, Khan and Asiri don’t matter
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  Defensive measures must … the eventual defeat of the group.

  Only expanding the United States reach outside of Sana’a allows us to find them
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  A strategy focused on … with the Yemeni populace. 473

  Decentralized governance assistance is key to gaining local knowledge to end AQAP
  Green 11 (Daniel, Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute, "The al-Qaeda Crescent in Yemen," The Washington Institute, June 22, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3374)
  Much like AQAP, the U.S. … planning on the United States. 

  Assistance to ensure the provision of government services is key to turn the tribes against AQAP
  Knoetgen 11 (Peter, "Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil," Central European Journal of International and Security Studies," May 16, http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil)
  For security forces to establish a … weapon against Yemeni terrorism.

  Tribal engagement is key to expose AQAP hypocrisy and undermine their support
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  Nevertheless, al-Qa`ida in … residents of Marib and al-Jawf.

  Yemen is the key linchpin of global Al Qaeda– they’re key to funding, recruiting, training, deployment, and are the refuge of last resort
  Scheuer 8 (Michael, former CIA intelligence officer, American blogger, historian, foreign policy critic, and political analyst. He is currently an adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Center for Peace and Security Studies, “Yemen’s Role in al-Qaeda’s Strategy”, Terrorism Focus Volume: 5 Issue: 5, February 7, 2008, http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=4708&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=246&no_cache=1)
  Osama bin Laden has always had a … are greatly affected by religious discourse” 

  AQAP is gearing up for major attacks in India – they’ll be successful
  Roychowdhury11.(General, Shankar Roychowdhury is a former Chief of Army Staff and a former member of Parliament, “India needs a 360° terror appraisal”, September 6 _{Deccan Chronicle, http://www.deccanchronicle.com/editorial/dc-comment/india-needs-360%C2%B0-terror-appraisal-659)
  In this context, Al Qaeda and its … and exercise the requisite caution.} 

  This scenario ensures escalation to nuclear war
  Zarate 11 (Juan,  “An alarming South Asia powder keg”, Washington Post, February 18,  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/18/AR2011021805662.html)
  In 1914, a terrorist assassinated … crises may be the greatest threat we face from terrorism. 

  India Pakistan nuclear escalation is the most probable – next few years are key to prevent failure of deterrence
  Ricks 11 (Thomas, Senior fellow, Center for a New American Security, a bipartisan think tank that studies national security issues * Contributing editor, Foreign Policy magazine * Special military correspondent, the Washington Post * Author, Fiasco and The Gamble, about Iraq Graduated from Yale in 1977.  The most likely apocalypse in our future: An Indian-Pakistani nuclear exchange)
  The point that all three panelists ...  This is a global problem. 

  Best new studies prove this would cause extinction
  Starr 11 (Steven, Consequences of a Single Failure of Nuclear Deterrence by Steven Starr February 07, 2011      * Associate member of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation     * Senior Scientist for PSR)
  Only a single failure of … Russian nuclear forces.

   

  1AC – China Advantage

  Yemenis view the United States as only focused on counter-terrorism – kills relations
  Atran 10-1 (Scott, Anthropologist, "How Killing Awlaki Affects America, Al Qaeda, and the Arab Spring," Huffington Post, October 1, www.huffingtonpost.com/scott-atran/how-killing-awlaki-affect_b_990182.html)
  But there's a rub that threatens to markedly reduce the effectiveness of the president's counter-terrorism strategy, especially with the Arab Street. Not that there is any … anyone intent on regime change.

  Now is key to reorient our counter-terrorism policies in Yemen
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  As Washington braces for … AQAP to U.S. and Yemeni interests. The second section outlines current approaches and possible alternatives for countering the group, before closing with policy recommendations.

  Balancing military support with governance assistance is key to US-Yemeni relations
  Boucek 10-27 (Christopher, deceased, associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program where his research focuses on security challenges in the Arabian Peninsula and Northern Africa. "Yemen After Saleh's Return and Awlaki's Exit," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, carnegieendowment.org/2011/10/27/yemen-after-saleh-s-return-and-awlaki-s-exit/68im)
  U.S. policy has been … Yemen don’t get any bigger. 

  Balancing military action in Yemen with democracy assistance is key to reorient our war on terror strategies
  Berger 10 (Collin, "America's Land of Opportunity: Supporting Yemen's Fight Against Terrorism," American Foreign Policy, Princeton Student Editorials on Global Politics, December 1, afpprinceton.com/2010/12/america’s-land-of-opportunity-supporting-yemen’s-fight-against-terrorism/)
  Even in its tenth year, the War on Terror … turning point in the War on Terror.

  The plan is key to demonstrating a new relationship with the Yemeni people – solves anti-Americanism
  Green 11 (Daniel, Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, "The American Moment in Yemen," Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/)
  It is becoming increasingly clear that … which to launch attacks against the United States.

  Anti-Americanism in Yemen is key to Chinas expanded ties to Yemen
  Zambelis 6 (Chris, Author and researcher with Helios Global, Inc., "Burgeoning China-Yemen Ties Showcase Beijing's Middle East Strategy," The Jamestown Foundation, China Brief, Volume: 6, Issue 11, December 31, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=3952)
  There is a geopolitical component … reform process and internal affairs more generally. 

  Yemen is key to Chinese power projection
  Zambelis 6 (Chris, Author and researcher with Helios Global, Inc., "Burgeoning China-Yemen Ties Showcase Beijing's Middle East Strategy," The Jamestown Foundation, China Brief, Volume: 6, Issue 11, December 31, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=3952)
  China's growing interest in Yemen … as a hotbed of radical Islamists and al-Qaeda activity.

  US control over Yemen prevents Chinese power projection – creates a stranglehold over their economy
  Bhadrakumar 10 (M.K., Career Diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service with Experience in the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey, "Controlling Yemen Is Just Part of Obama's Power Game With China, Asia Times, January 11, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LA09Ak02.html)
  Most important, however, for …without occupying Yemen.

  Yemen is key to cutting off Chinese hegemony – makes them more reliant on the Malacca
  Gundun 11 (James, political scientist and counterinsurgency analyst based in Washington DC and spokesman for Yemen’s Coordinating Council for the Youth Revolution of Change, "US-Chinese Hegemony Chokes Yemen's Revolution," The Trench, July 7,  hadalzone.blogspot.com/2011/07/us-chinese-hegemony-chokes-yemens.html)
  Yemen and Somalia form a broken … very real and immediate

  Counter-terrorism co-operation in Yemen gives the US control over the Indian ocean
  Bhadrakumar 10 (M.K., Career Diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service with Experience in the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey, "Controlling Yemen Is Just Part of Obama's Power Game With China, Asia Times, January 11, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LA09Ak02.html)
  Is Obama so incredibly forgetful of his …. This serves many purposes.
   

  Chinese power projection causes an East Asian Arms race
  Goodspeed 9 [Peter, writer for the National Post, “China at 60: Military marching lockstep with economic growth,” 9-25, http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=2035292]
  In the past 30 years, China has … regarding its military plans,” the report says.

  Arms race causes nuclear war
  Cimbala 08 [Stephen, Distinguished Prof. Pol. Sci. – Penn. State Brandywine, Comparative Strategy, “Anticipatory Attacks: Nuclear Crisis Stability in Future Asia”, 27, InformaWorld]
  If the possibility existed of a mistaken … marginalization of major interstate warfare.

  Chinese expansion of influence causes US-China war
  Freeman 10 (Chas, Ambassadorr, "China's Challenge to American Hegemony," Remarks to the Global Strategy Forum, Remarks to Global Strategy Forum, January 20, www.mepc.org/articles-commentary/speeches/chinas-challenge-american-hegemony)
  Still, China is modernizing its military at … impossible to imagine. 

  Extinction
  Straits Times 00 [Straits Times, June 25, 2000, “Regional Fallout: No one gains in war over Taiwan,” Lexis]
  THE high-intensity scenario postulates … above everything else.

  Chinese influence in Africa causes African failed states, Taiwan isolation and cut off of energy supplies
  Brookes and Shin 6 (Peter and Ji Hye, Director of Asian Studies Center and Research Assistant in the Asian Studies Center,"China's Influence in Africa: Implications for the United States,"The Heritage Foundation, February 22,  heritage.org/Research/Reports/2006/02/Chinas-Influence-in-Africa-Implications-for-the-United-States)
  In recent years, Beijing has identified …s across the African continent.

  State failure leads to massive destabilizing migrations, contagious disease spread and proliferation to terrorists and rogue nations culminating in nuclear war
  African Studies Centre et al 3  (The Transnational Institute, The Center of Social Studies, Coimbra University, and The Peace Research Center – CIP-FUHEM, “Failed and Collapsed States in the International System,” December, www.globalpolicy.org/nations/sovereign/failed/2003/12failedcollapsedstates.pdf)
  In the malign scenario of global … on their national security. 

  
  
  

1AC - Special Forces - New Impacts - Coast

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• 1AC - Bab Al-Mandeb Impacts

  AQAP has the intent and capacity to shut down the Bab al-Mandeb
  Thomas 11 (Matthew, MA Nonproliferation and Terrorism Studies, “Al Qaeda in the Land of Faith and Wisdom: The Fall of Saleh and March on Al-Aqsa,” Monterey Institute of International Studies, May 8)
  AQAP is well aware of the ...Yemen into chaos. 

  Closing the strait collapses the economy, hegemony and causes Iran expansionism
  UPI 10. (“Al-Qaida threatens to close key oil artery,” Feb. 24, 2010. UPI. http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2010/02/24/Al-Qaida-threatens-to-close-key-oil-artery/UPI-27151267027462/#ixzz1XPTj8CWP. CR)
  SANAA, Yemen, Feb. 24 (UPI)  Amid the growing war jitters infecting much of the Middle East and fears Iran may seek to close the Gulf's Strait of Hormuz, ... secure allies and markets.

  Miscalculation ensures escalation
  Lynch 11 (Marc associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, Center for New American Security, June, http://www.cnas.org/upheaval)
  As it struggles to recalibrate its ... and game-changing war

  Most likely scenario for nuclear conflict - lack of security framework and historical rivalries.
  Russell 9 (James A. "Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East", Naval Postgraduate School, http://www.nps.edu/academics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/russell/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf)
  Strategic stability in the ... for the entire world.

  No substitutes – the Bab el-Mandeb is a key oil chokepoint – instability causes oil shocks.
  Roman et al 8 (Alejandra Roman, Editorial Assistant, The Encyclopedia of Earth. B.A. in Environmental Policy and Analysis and Hispanic Language and Literature from Boston U; Cutler J. Cleveland, founding Editor-in-Chief of the Encyclopedia of Earth. Professor in the Department of Geography and Environment at Boston University and Senior Fellow at the National Council for Science and the Environment in Washington D.C.;  Tom Lawrence, Ph.D, P.E. and LEED-AP, is a Public Service Associate with the , and has over 25 years of professional experience in engineering and environmentally related fields. "Bab el-Mandeb". Encyclopedia of Earth. September 12, http://theenergylibrary.com/node/576)
  The Bab el-Mandeb (Bab al-Mandab) ...pressure on world oil prices.

  Suez closure causes an immediate recession
  Sterne 11 (Paul, Managing Partner at Sterne and Co, “Egypt's Second Suez Canal Crisis” Ground Report, Jaunary 30, http://www.groundreport.com/World/Second-Suez-Crisis/2933579)
  Egypt matters for one reason  ... that coalesce into a big bang. 

  1AC - China - Africa Failed States

  Chinese influence in Africa causes African failed states, Taiwan isolation and cut off of energy supplies
  Brookes and Shin 6 (Peter and Ji Hye, Director of Asian Studies Center and Research Assistant in the Asian Studies Center,"China's Influence in Africa: Implications for the United States,"The Heritage Foundation, February 22,  heritage.org/Research/Reports/2006/02/Chinas-Influence-in-Africa-Implications-for-the-United-States)
  In recent years, ...s across the African continent.

  State failure leads to massive destabilizing migrations, contagious disease spread and proliferation to terrorists and rogue nations culminating in nuclear war
  African Studies Centre et al 3  (The Transnational Institute, The Center of Social Studies, Coimbra University, and The Peace Research Center – CIP-FUHEM, “Failed and Collapsed States in the International System,” December, www.globalpolicy.org/nations/sovereign/failed/2003/12failedcollapsedstates.pdf)
  In the malign scenario of ...on their national security. 

  
  
  

1AC - Special Forces - USC Octos

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• 1AC - Plan

  Text: The United State Special Operations Command should substantially increase its support for democratic governance of the the governorates of Yemen.

  1AC – Inherency

  USAID and the state department have been unable to travel to governorates outside of San’aa because of security restrictions and have been placing responsibility to local contractors
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  473  Beginning no later than 2009, …Development (30 March 2011), 11, 19. 

  USAID’s mission includes governance assistance
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  The 2010-2012 strategy has three … to Yemen‘s president.7
  However, Special Operations have the capacity to implement USAID projects, but the government has chosen contractors instead
  Kotlow 11 (Kazimierz, Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at the Washington Institute, “Countering Extermism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/720-kotlow.pdf)
  The USAID mission in Yemen … guide future stability operations.
  This undermines co-ordination necessary for an effective strategy in Yemen
  Mitchell 11 (Robert, Former Foreign Service Officer with USAID, Earned Degrees from the University of Michigan, Harvard’s China Area Program and Columbia, “Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency,” Small Wars Journal, August 1, smallwarsjournal.com/node/11077)
  Even if the authority of the already …for Yemen. And this was just before the recent turmoil.

  1AC – AQAP

  United States intelligence of AQAP is weak despite Awlaki’s death – Wayhishi is alive and he’s the important terrorist
  Johnsen 10-10 (Gregory, former Fulbright Fellow in Yemen who works in Near Eastern Studies department at Princeton University, Former Member of the USAID conflict assessment team for Yemen, "Anwar al-Awlaki: A Dissent," bigthink.com/ideas/40600?page=3)
  First, as I argued in my op-ed, … than what we know. 

  Decapitating the local leadership is key to prevent attacks – Awlaki, Khan and Asiri don’t matter
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  Defensive measures must complement … defeat of the group.

  Civilian security restrictions prevent face-to-face interactions with Yemenis
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  Though the attacks on tourists … meeting an American.

  Only the plan allows us to find the leadership
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  A strategy focused on eliminating … to engage with the Yemeni populace. 473
  Decentralized governance assistance is key to gaining local knowledge to end AQAP
  Green 11 (Daniel, Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute, "The al-Qaeda Crescent in Yemen," The Washington Institute, June 22, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3374)
  Much like AQAP, the … be planning on the United States. 

  Tribal engagement is key to expose AQAP hypocrisy and undermine their support
  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)
  Nevertheless, al-Qa`ida in the … of Marib and al-Jawf.

  The plan secures successful CT missions – partnerships and trust
  Fiack et al 10 (William [WIlliam Roberts and Timothy Sulick], Liutenants in the United States Navy, "Integrating Defense, Diplomacy and Development (3D) In the Naval Special Warfare Operator," Naval Postgraduate School, December, edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2010/Dec/10Dec_Fiack.pdf)
  A primary role for the SOCCE in … and providing a strategic foothold in any country.

  Airstrikes on AQAP’s leadership have failed – the organization is strong and is key to global Al Qaeda
  Roggio 12-23 (Bill, "AQAP leaders' brother reported killed in US drone strike," The Long War Journal, www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2011/12/aqap_leaders_brother.php)
  Since December 2009, some o…export of jihad to neighboring countries."

  Yemen is the key linchpin of global Al Qaeda– they’re key to funding, recruiting, training, deployment, and are the refuge of last resort
  Scheuer 8 [Michael Scheuer, former CIA intelligence officer, American blogger, historian, foreign policy critic, and political analyst, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Center for Peace and Security Studies, “Yemen’s Role in al-Qaeda’s Strategy”, Jamestown Foundation, Terrorism Focus Volume: 5 Issue: 5, February 7, 2008, http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=4708&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=246&no_cache=1]
    Abundant Manpower But affection is always …affected by religious discourse”

  AQAP is gearing up for major attacks in India – they’ll be successful
  Roychowdhury11.(General, Shankar Roychowdhury is a former Chief of Army Staff and a former member of Parliament, “India needs a 360° terror appraisal”, September 6 _{Deccan Chronicle, http://www.deccanchronicle.com/editorial/dc-comment/india-needs-360%C2%B0-terror-appraisal-659)
  In this context, Al Qaeda and its … exercise the requisite caution.} 

  India will retaliate by invading Pakistan – Abbottabad set a precedent
  Riedel 11 (Bruce, “New Delhi's Abbottabad Mission”, June 22, 2011, National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/new-delhis-abbottabad-mission-5508)
  President Obama was right and brave to … rules on May 2, 2011. 

  This scenario ensures escalation to nuclear war
  Zarate 11 (Juan,  “An alarming South Asia powder keg”, Washington Post, February 18,  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/18/AR2011021805662.html)
  In 1914, a terrorist assassinated Archduke Franz …be the greatest threat we face from terrorism. 

  India Pakistan nuclear escalation is the most probable – next few years are key to prevent failure of deterrence
  Ricks 11 (Thomas, Senior fellow, Center for a New American Security, a bipartisan think tank that studies national security issues * Contributing editor, Foreign Policy magazine * Special military correspondent, the Washington Post * Author, Fiasco and The Gamble, about Iraq Graduated from Yale in 1977.  The most likely apocalypse in our future: An Indian-Pakistani nuclear exchange)
  The point that all three panelists ….  This is a global problem. 

  Best new studies prove this would cause extinction
  Starr 11 (Steven, Consequences of a Single Failure of Nuclear Deterrence by Steven Starr February 07, 2011      * Associate member of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation     * Senior Scientist for PSR)
  Only a single failure of nuclear … and deployed U.S. and Russian nuclear forces.

  *This scenario is the most likely scenario for escalation – US diplomacy wouldn’t solve
  Yusuf 11 (Moeed Yusuf is South Asia adviser at the U.S. Institute of Peace, where he manages the institute’s Pakistan program. Previously, he was a research fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government and a fellow at the Frederick S. Pardee Center at Boston University, “Banking on an Outsider: Implications for Escalation Control in South Asia”, June 2011, Arms Control Association, http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2011_06/Yusuf)
  The potential for confrontation between …has been inclined to expect the worst from the other.[22] 

  1AC - LNG Investment

  Investors will pull out of support for LNG exports from Yemen
  Nakhoul 11 (Samia, "Exclusive: Yemen conflict costs state $4 billion to $5 billion," Reuters, www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/28/us-yemen-economy-idUSTRE74R12520110528)
  The political crisis that has pushed … food will not be available for majority of people who are poor," he said. 

  Investors won’t support Yemni LNG unless they perceive their investments as safe
  Richardson 11 (Lieutenant Colonel Darren, United States Marine Corps, "Al Qaida and Yemen - Is Our Current Policy Good Enough?" Strategy Research Project, March 23, dodreports.com/pdf/ada543700.pdf)
  A secure environment encourages … and multiple industries are being threatened by AQAP
  Natural gas shortages are inevitable – Yemen is key to offsetting – it’s the only country with infrastructure
  Plastemart 9 (“Shortages of natural gas in the Middle East could impact new petrochemical projects,” October 29, , http://www.plastemart.com/upload/Literature/Shortage-natural-gas-in-Middle-East-new-petrochemical-projects.asp)
  Increased domestic gas demand, delayed …exploration and production activity.
  Yemen is key to securing global LNG supplies – reserves, infrastructure and location
  Dahan 11 (Faculty of Business  Ajman University of S&T, May,  http://wbiaus.org/11.Ali%20Dahan.pdf)]
  The increase in LNG trade is due to the … gas exporters in the region. 

  The plan solves – creates a signal that triggers investor confidence and ensures FDI inflows
  Garriga and Phillips 11 (Ana Carolina and Brian, Professor of Political Studies –  Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas (Mexico) Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science – University of Pittsburgh, “Foreign Aid and Investment in Post-Conflict Societies”, CIDE, June,  http://www.cide.edu/publicaciones/status/dts/DTEP%20227.pdf)
  The impact of foreign aid on FDI There is a less … indicator for potential investors.

  The plan’s unconditional signal creates a perception that its safe to invest
  Garriga and Phillips 11 (Ana Carolina and Brian, Professor of Political Studies –  Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas (Mexico) Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science – University of Pittsburgh, “Foreign Aid and Investment in Post-Conflict Societies”, CIDE, June,  http://www.cide.edu/publicaciones/status/dts/DTEP%20227.pdf)
  Our assertion thus far is that aid …goals set forth by donors.

  Only US aid signals a sufficient commitment to ensure investors
  Garriga and Phillips 11 (Ana Carolina and Brian, Professor of Political Studies –  Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas (Mexico) Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science – University of Pittsburgh, “Foreign Aid and Investment in Post-Conflict Societies”, CIDE, June,  http://www.cide.edu/publicaciones/status/dts/DTEP%20227.pdf)
  While we argue that aid should not be … have any effect on FDI. 

  Natural gas shortages causes methane-hydrate gathering – extinction
  Heinberg 4 (Richard, Award-Winning Author and Core Faculty Member of New College of California, “Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World,” pp.122-4)
  Methane hydrates represent … similarly stark awakening.

  LNG supply pressure causes great power war-draws in China and India
  Ewall 7 (Mike, founder and director of Energy Justice Network, “Fact Sheet: Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), November, http://www.energyjustice.net/files/naturalgas/lngfactsheet.pdf)
  Peak Gas Globally, the demand for … our military conflicts are starting to be about natural gas as well.

  LNG imports are key to the Japanese economy
  Fink 11 (Daniel, "Japan's Surging LNG Demand," Economonitor RGE Analysts Blog, August 22, www.economonitor.com/analysts/2011/08/22/japan’s-surging-lng-demand/)
  Uncertainty over the future of … was 11 spot cargoes bought in September 2008.
  Japanese economic decline causes global wars
  Auslin 9 (Michael, Wall Street Journal, “Japan's Downturn Is Bad News for the World,” February 17, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123483257056995903.html)
  Recently, many economists … and the world down with them.

  
  
  

1AC-Rhinos-Dartmouth RR

• Tournament: Dartmouth RR | Round: 1 | Opponent: Northwestern BK | Judge:
  
  
• 
  

• 1AC – Topicality

  Text: The United States Department of the Interior should substantially increase its support for democratic governance to Yemeni environmental institutions.

  Counter Interpretation—4 government-wide categories for democracy assistance—civil society, governance, elections, and rule of law
  GAO, US Government Accountability Office, ‘9
  (September, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09993.pdf)

  In January 2006, to better …with the largest allocations.
  Environmental governance is democracy assistance – it affects direct political variables
  Diamond 9 (Nancy, Ph.D., "Greening Democracy & Governance the Environment: Managing for Cross-Sectoral Results," USAID Natural Resources and Management and Development Portal, March 30, www.rmportal.net/library/content/frame/workshop.pdf)
  We structured the workshop …as transparency, accountability and representativeness.

  We’re predictable – the USAID has democratic governance and environmental linkages in every one of their bureaus – insert this chart into evidence
  Diamond 00 (Nancy, Ph.D., "Greening Democracy and Governing USAID Experiences from the Field," Biodiversity Support Program, United States Agency for International Development, http://www.worldwildlife.org/bsp/publications/asia/greening/greening.html#exploring)
  Table 1. An Initial Survey of … the enforcement of illegal dumping regulations and site-cleanup. 

  We solve their limits arguments – our interpretation only allows affs with explicit linkages to democracy, which means affs that only help the environment wouldn’t be topical
  Diamond 00 (Nancy, Ph.D., "Greening Democracy and Governing USAID Experiences from the Field," Biodiversity Support Program, United States Agency for International Development, http://www.worldwildlife.org/bsp/publications/asia/greening/greening.html#exploring)
  USAID ENV projects… in DG terminology.

  1AC – Solvency

  Rhino deaths in South Africa are escalating – will overrun conservation games
  The Guardian 11 ("Rhino poaching crisis in South Africa as 200 killed in six months," The Guardian, July 4, www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/04/rhino-poaching-south-africa-wwf)
  Poachers have … the past century."

  Yemen is the root cause of African rhino poaching – only assistance is able to curb demand and encourage enforcement
  Martin and Vigne 7 (EB and Lucy, "A call for action - In Yemen," Swara, Volume 30 (3), p17, www.rhinoresourcecenter.com/index.php?s=1&act=refs&CODE=ref_detail&id=1195549899)
  Yemen is a relatively little known .. the rhino horn problem.

  Only assistance solves – it generates capacity and political will
  Martin et al 97 (Esmond Bradley [Lucy Vigne and Crawford Allan], "On a Knife's Edge: The Rhinoceros Horn Trade in Yemen," A TRAFFIC  Network Report, www.traffic.org/species-reports/traffic_species_mammals58.pdf)
  While it is the responsibility of … anti-smuggling techniques. 

  Assistance solves demand and keeps pressure on the government
  Vigne and Martin 7 (Lucy and Esmond Bradley, "Yemen: the fate of rhino horn," The Horn Newsletter, Autumn, p20, figs 1-4, www.rhinoresourcecenter.com/index_test.php?s=1&act=refs&CODE=ref_detail&id=1195293329)
  Action is required … the government of Yemen. 

  Environmental regulations in Yemen are an empty box – technical assistance key to solve
  Alba 10 (Eleodoro Mayargo, "Environmental Governance in Oil-Producing Developing Countries," The World Bank, Extractive Industries Development Series #17, June,  siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTOGMC/Resources/336929-1266963339030/eifd17_environmental_governance.pdf)
  The effectiveness of a … the oil and gas industry.

  Only technical assistance solves
  USAID 6 (United States Agency for International Development, "Interim Strategic Plan for Assistance to the Republic of Yemen," April pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDABY268.pdf)

  1. Degradation of Natural Habitats  
     Effective management ... and lack of enforcement capacity.

  Democratic focus of international assistance solves environmental enforcement
  Van Damme 11 (Kay, Hydrobiologist at Ghent University in Belgium, "Insular Biodiversity in a changing World," Nature Middle East, May 25, www.nature.com/nmiddleeast/2011/110525/full/nmiddleeast.2011.61.html)
  Conservation … community involvement.
  Linking democratic governance with environmental issues ensures conservation
  Diamond 00 (Nancy, Ph.D., "Greening Democracy and Governing USAID Experiences from the Field," Biodiversity Support Program, United States Agency for International Development, http://www.worldwildlife.org/bsp/publications/asia/greening/greening.html#exploring)
  Both environment (ENV) … in local and national political sensitivities. 

  The plan is key to making the government is accountable to environmental priorities
  Diamond 00 (Nancy, Ph.D., "Greening Democracy and Governing USAID Experiences from the Field," Biodiversity Support Program, United States Agency for International Development, http://www.worldwildlife.org/bsp/publications/asia/greening/greening.html#exploring)
  As a result of …es and enforcement of national policy.

  1AC – Biodiversity

  Studies prove – Rhinos have irreplaceable effects on the ecosystem
  Waldram et al 7 (Matthew, [William Bond and William Stock], Botany Department at the University of Capetown, Centre for Ecosystem Management at Edith Cowan University, "Ecological Engineering by a Mega-Grazer: White Rhino Impacts on a South African Savanna," Ecosystems, DOI: 10.10007/s100021-007-9109-9, March 24, www.mattwaldram.com/Pubs/Waldram_Ecosys_11_101.pdf)
  As Rhino removals are likely … grazing impact of Rhino.

  Rhinos are a keystone species – spills over to overall habitat loss
  Cheyenne Mountain Zoo 10 ("Why Would We Be Bowling for Rhinos?" April 6, cheyennemountainzooblog.blogspot.com/2010/04/why-would-we-be-bowling-for-rhinos.html)
  Rhinos are a keystone … as well as rhinos.
  Extinction of the Rhino has a symbolic effect – causes overall species loss
  AAZK 11 (American Association of Zoo Keepers, "Bowling for Rhinos FAQ," aazk.org/committee/bowling-for-rhinos/bowling-for-rhinos-faq/#q2)
  The black rhino …, not just the rhino.

  Rhinos are irreplaceable
  Waldram et al 7 (Matthew, [William Bond and William Stock], Botany Department at the University of Capetown, Centre for Ecosystem Management at Edith Cowan University, "Ecological Engineering by a Mega-Grazer: White Rhino Impacts on a South African Savanna," Ecosystems, DOI: 10.10007/s100021-007-9109-9, March 24, www.mattwaldram.com/Pubs/Waldram_Ecosys_11_101.pdf)
  Herbivory can change … large grazers in the Pleistocene.

  Biodiversity loss causes extinction – most recent and qualified studies confirm
  Science Daily 11 ("Biodiversity Key to Earth's Life-Support Functions in a CHanging World,"  Cites Albert-Ludwigs-Universitat Freiburg, August 11, www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110811084513.htm
  ScienceDaily (Aug. 11, 2011) — … Earth's life-support functions.
  
  Recency of studies matter – their defense underestimates the value of biodiversity
  Science Daily 11 ("Biodiversity Critical for Maintaining Multiple 'Ecosystem Services'" Cites McGill University, August 19, www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110819155422.htm)
  By combining data from … good precautionary approach."

  Biodiversity collapse outweighs – default to irreversibility.
  Chen 00 (Jim, Professor of Law at University of Minnesota and Dean of Law School at Louisville, Globalization and Its Losers:, 9 Minn. J. Global Trade 157’ LexisNexis Legal)
  Conscious decisions … a hundred million.348 

  1AC – South Africa

  Three internal links to the south African economy

  1) Tourism
  Bush Warriors 11 (Non-Profit Organization focused on raising awareness about global wildlife conseration issues, "Media Release: BLK JKS to Attend Bush Warriors Rally for South Africa's Rhinos," April 4, bushwarriors.wordpress.com/2011/04/04/media-release-blk-jks-to-attend-bush-warriors-rally-for-south-africa’s-rhinos/)
  Bush Warriors, a … afar, and supplying printed Bush Warriors materials for the event.

  Rhino conservation is key to the success of ecotourism and overall conservation efforts in South Africa
  Du Toit et al 6 (R. [M Brooks and R. Emslie], "Strategic Planning for Rhino Conservation Rhino Resource Center, www.rhinoresourcecenter.com/pdf_files/119/1190402314.pdf)
  Therefore, of the “…  along the lines that are advocated in this manual. 

  Eco-tourism is key to south African economic growth
  Tourism ROI 8 ("Economic Benefits of Ecotourism in South Africa," May 28, www.tourismroi.com/InteriorTemplate.aspx?id=26054)
  Eco-tourism has … supported through jobs and better economies.

  2) Poaching collapses the economy by overrunning the government budget
  Martin et al 97 (Esmond Bradley [Lucy Vigne and Crawford Allan], "On a Knife's Edge: The Rhinoceros Horn Trade in Yemen," A TRAFFIC  Network Report, www.traffic.org/species-reports/traffic_species_mammals58.pdf)
  Since the early 1970s. …to African wildlife and African government budgets. 

  3) Rhinos are key to biodiversity in South Africa
  Waldram et al 7 (Matthew, [William Bond and William Stock], Botany Department at the University of Capetown, Centre for Ecosystem Management at Edith Cowan University, "Ecological Engineering by a Mega-Grazer: White Rhino Impacts on a South African Savanna," Ecosystems, DOI: 10.10007/s100021-007-9109-9, March 24, www.mattwaldram.com/Pubs/Waldram_Ecosys_11_101.pdf)
  Herbivory can change … more widespread before the extinction of large grazers in the Pleistocene.

  Biodiversity is key to the South African Economy
  Maze 11 (Kristal, Chief Director of Biodiversity Planning and Managemement, "Biodiversity - powering a green economy in South Africa," The Green Business System," July 11, www.thegreenbusinesssystem.com/?p=667)
  “Managing biodiversity … solve our development challenges”[2]

  South African growth is key to overall BRIC trade with Africa
  Seruma and Dillard 11 (Larry and John, Chief Investment Officer of Nile Capital Management and Associate Professor and former Chair of the Management and Information Technology and Information Department at St. Francis College, "BRIC Becomes BRICS - South Africa as a Gateway to the Continent," Money Watch Africa, May 12, www.moneywatchafrica.com/2011/05/bric-becomes-brics-south-africa-as.html)
  Given all this, including … for Emerging Market investors.

  African trade facilitated by South Africa is key to the BRIC
  China Daily 11 ("South Africa's role in BRICS,", September 15, www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011-09/15/content_13689717.htm)
  Perhaps the foremost … and west coasts of Africa.

  South African economic growth is key to BRIC success – solves global conflict, democracy, Middle East and Korean Instability
  Makgetlaneng 11 (Sehlare, Chief Research Specialist and Head of the Governance and Democracy Research Programme at the AFrica Instititute, "SA's Bric strategy is politically strategic," Mail and Guardian Online, February 15, mg.co.za/article/2011-02-15-sas-bric-strategy-is-politically-strategic)
  The invitation to join the … of diplomatic weapons.
  
  Middle east war goes nuclear
  James A. Russell, Senior Lecturer, National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, ‘9 (Spring) “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” IFRI, Proliferation Papers, #26, http://www.ifri.org/downloads/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf
  Strategic stability in the … of the region, with substantial risk for the entire world. 

  Korean war escalates causing a nuclear winter
  Hamel-Green and Hayes, 10 (Michael, Dean and Prof. Faculty of Arts – Victoria U., and Peter, Nautilus Institute, Special Report 100-001, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, 2010, http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf)
  The consequences … the international community

  BRIC solves all impacts – food security, disease, peak oil and global warming
  Biswas 11 (Aparajita, Professor at the Centre for African Studies at the University of Mumbai, "Foreign Relations of India: BRICS and India, BRICS in Africa," International Affairs, January 6, en.rian.ru/international_affairs/20110601/164362547.html)
  Recently, India’s Prime …expand South-South cooperation. 

  Unchecked disease spread will cause extinction
  Yu 09 [Victoria, “Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate,” Dartmouth Journal of Undergraduate Science, May 22, http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate]
  In the past, humans … — into a human-viable strain (10). 

  Warming causes extinction
  Sify 2010 – Sydney newspaper citing Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, professor at University of Queensland and Director of the Global Change Institute, and John Bruno, associate professor of Marine Science at UNC; Sify News, “Could unbridled climate changes lead to human extinction?”, http://www.sify.com/news/could-unbridled-climate-changes-lead-to-human-extinction-news-international-kgtrOhdaahc.html
  The findings of the … were published in Science.

  
  
  

1ac Socotra- Dartmouth RR

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• //
  
  
  ////
  
  
  //1AC – Advantage 1

  The Yemeni Island of Socotra is key to biodiversity but will be destroyed unless the Government engages in conservation efforts

  Aburawa 10 (Arwa, "Biodiversity Under Threat at Yemeni 'Alien-Island'" Green Prophet, December 20,www.greenprophet.com/2010/12/biodiversity-yemeni-island/)

  Declared an UNESCO world …economically viable water supplies by 2017.

   

  The island’s ecology will go extinct unless there are renewed conservation efforts

  Van Damme and Banfield 11 (Kay and Lisa, "Past and present human impacts on the biodiversity of Socotra Island (Yemen): implications for future conservation," Biodiversity Conservation in the Arabian Peninsula, Zoology in the Middle East, Supplement 3, 31-88, ISSN 0939-7140, www.kasparek-verlag.de/PDF%20Abstracts/PDF-SUPP3%20Weboptimiert/031-088%20VanDammeBanfield.pdf)

  From the above, it is clear that (1) …tackle current and future threats.

   

  Management policies exist but fail because decision-making isn’t informed

  Socotra Project 11 ("Socotra Governance and Biodiversity Project," United Nations Development Program Socotra Governance and Biodiversity Project, www.socotraproject.org/index.php?page=content&id=19)

  At the same time, Yemen has …the island’s development opportunities.

   

  Assisting the democratization of Yemeni environmental management is key to Socotra’s biodiversity

  Van Damme 11 (Kay, Hydrobiologist at Ghent University in Belgium, "Insular Biodiversity in a changing World," Nature Middle East, May 25, www.nature.com/nmiddleeast/2011/110525/full/nmiddleeast.2011.61.html)

  Conservation depends on long-term …protection and local community involvement.

  The plan is key to internalize norms of conservation into decisionmaking

  Socotra Project 11 ("Socotra Governance and Biodiversity Project," United Nations Development Program Socotra Governance and Biodiversity Project, www.socotraproject.org/index.php?page=content&id=19)

  The project’s objective is to …biodiversity benefits for the Socotris.

   

  Socotra collapse spills over – causes a cascade of ecosystem loss

  Van Damme 11 (Kay, Hydrobiologist at Ghent University in Belgium, "Insular Biodiversity in a changing World," Nature Middle East, May 25, www.nature.com/nmiddleeast/2011/110525/full/nmiddleeast.2011.61.html)

  How long a species has …affect the local inhabitants in the long term.

   

  Socotra is key – now is the tipping point

  Science Daily 11 ("Biodiversity in a Changing Middle East," Cites Ghent University, June 24, www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/06/110624083519.htm)

  Socotra, a Yemeni Island in the …Middle East, is likely to remain high.

   

   

  Socotra extinctions spill over to other endanger species – enforcing CITES is key

  Socotra Project 11 ("Biodiversity of Socotra," United Nations Development Program Socotra Governance and Biodversity Projectwww.socotraproject.org/index.php?page=content&id=16)

  Due to its size, geographic position and …international agreement between governments.

   

  Socotra is key to global biodiversity

  Van Damme 11 (Kay, Hydrobiologist at Ghent University in Belgium, "Insular Biodiversity in a changing World," Nature Middle East, May 25, www.nature.com/nmiddleeast/2011/110525/full/nmiddleeast.2011.61.html)

  Socotra's biodiversity is like an …groups of plants and animals. 

   

   

   

  Biodiversity loss causes extinction – most recent and qualified studies confirm

  Science Daily 11 ("Biodiversity Key to Earth's Life-Support Functions in a CHanging World,"  Cites Albert-Ludwigs-Universitat Freiburg, August 11, www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110811084513.htm

  ScienceDaily (Aug. 11, 2011) — The biological diversity of …life-support functions.

   

  Recency of studies matter – their defense underestimates the value of biodiversity

  Science Daily 11 ("Biodiversity Critical for Maintaining Multiple 'Ecosystem Services'" Cites McGill University, August 19, www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110819155422.htm)

  By combining data from 17 …good precautionary approach."

   

   

  Biodiversity collapse outweighs – default to irreversibility.

  Chen 00 (Jim, Professor of Law at University of Minnesota and Dean of Law School at Louisville, Globalization and Its Losers:, 9 Minn. J. Global Trade 157’ LexisNexis Legal)

  Conscious decisions to allow the …mil-  lion years, perhaps a hundred million.348

   

  1AC – Advantage 2

   

  Extreme water shortages in Yemen  - bad resource management is the root cause

  Tassabehji 11 (Rola, "Yemen Running Dry as Water Shortage Reaches Extreme Levels in Africa and the Middle East," Green Prophet, July 12, www.greenprophet.com/2011/07/yemen-running-dry-as-water-shortage-reaches-extreme-levels-in-africa-and-the-middle-east/)

  But of all counties in the region, …resource management policies.

   

  Short-term impacts are likely

  Polycarpou 11 (Lakis, works in the communications department at the Earth Institute’s Columbia Water Center, "Can Water Scarcity Bring Down a Government? Yemen Spirals Out of Control," Columbia Water Center, June 8,  blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2011/06/08/can-water-scarcity-bring-down-a-government-yemen-spirals-out-of-control/)

  According to The New York …ever to run out of water.

   

   

  Solutions haven’t been implemented because of weak capacity

  Green Prophet 10 ("Waterless by 2017? Yemen Capital Fails to Harvest Its Summer Rain," August 26, www.greenprophet.com/2010/08/yemen-summer-rain/)

  Despite record rainfall in the Yemeni…, especially for irrigation, he said.

  Increasing assistance is key

  Glass 10 (Nicole, "The Water Crisis in Yemen: Causes, Consequences and Solutions," Global Majority E-Journal, Vol. 1, No. 1, June, www.american.edu/cas/economics/ejournal/upload/Global_Majority_e_Journal_1-1_Glass.pdf)

  With no food, no water, and no …to participate in water conservation methods.

   

   

  Water is the root cause of instability in Yemen – only governance solves

  Kasinof 9 (Laura, "At heart of Yemen's conflicts: Water crisis," Christian Science Monitor, November 5, www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2009/1105/p06s13-wome.html)

  Yemen is running out of water –…of the social value of qat chewing in this society."

   

  Only assisting water management solves conflict

  Marburger 10 (Lindsey, manages Earth Systems Program at the Federation of American Scientists, "Security in Yemen: Thinking Beyond Terrorism," Federation of American Scientists, October 14, www.fas.org/blog/earthsystems/2010/10/security-in-yemen-thinking-beyond-terrorism/)

  Security in Yemen is increasingly a …there can be no stability and security.

   

  Water conflicts cause a north-south war – spills over

  Arsenault 11 (Chris "Water Wars: 21st century conflicts?" Al Jazeera, June 29, english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/06/2011622193147231653.html)

  UN studies project that 30 …some general communal violence.

   

  Escalates regionally

  UPI 9 ("Yemen's water crisis a Mideast Warning," United Presse International, October 29, www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2009/10/29/Yemens-water-crisis-a-Mideast-warning/UPI-52511256844951/)

  SANAA, Yemen, Oct. 29 (UPI) -- Sanaa ..more vulnerable geopolitically speaking."

   

  The US gets drawn in – causes regional instability

  Red State 11 (Most Widely Read Right of Center Blog in America, "What happens if the Saudi Regime collapses?" June 5, http://www.redstate.com/gawken/2011/06/05/what-happens-if-the-saudi-regime-collapses/)

  If the Middle East were a…

  , and just assuming that Riyahd will go on as it has been.

   

   

  Most likely scenario for nuclear conflict - lack of security framework and historical rivalries.

  Russell 9 (James A. "Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East", Naval Postgraduate School, http://www.nps.edu/academics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/russell/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf)

  Strategic stability in the region…, with substantial risk for the entire world.

   

   

   

  1AC – Solvency

  Lack of institutional capacity makes environmental regulations in Yemen an empty box – technical assistance is key to effectiveness

  Alba 10 (Eleodoro Mayargo, "Environmental Governance in Oil-Producing Developing Countries," The World Bank, Extractive Industries Development Series #17, June,  siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTOGMC/Resources/336929-1266963339030/eifd17_environmental_governance.pdf)

  The effectiveness of a regulatory …environmental governance of the oil and gas industry.

   

  Only technical assistance solves

  USAID 6 (United States Agency for International Development, "Interim Strategic Plan for Assistance to the Republic of Yemen," April pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PDABY268.pdf)

  1. Degradation of Natural Habitats 

  Effective management of natural habitats …ministries, and lack of enforcement capacity.

  1AC – Solvency

  Technical assistance is key to capacity building

  Alba 10 (Eleodoro Mayargo, "Environmental Governance in Oil-Producing Developing Countries," The World Bank, Extractive Industries Development Series #17, June,  siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTOGMC/Resources/336929-1266963339030/eifd17_environmental_governance.pdf)

  Improve country capacity in …training on a short-term basis

   

  Linking democratic governance with environmental issues ensures conservation

  Diamond 00 (Nancy, Ph.D., "Greening Democracy and Governing USAID Experiences from the Field," Biodiversity Support Program, United States Agency for International Development, http://www.worldwildlife.org/bsp/publications/asia/greening/greening.html#exploring)

  Both environment (ENV) and …local and national political sensitivities.

  The plan is key to making the government is accountable to environmental priorities

  Diamond 00 (Nancy, Ph.D., "Greening Democracy and Governing USAID Experiences from the Field," Biodiversity Support Program, United States Agency for International Development, http://www.worldwildlife.org/bsp/publications/asia/greening/greening.html#exploring)

  As a result of ENV-DG …through local rules and enforcement of national policy.

   

   

   

  
  
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