South Korea Free Trade Agreement will pass now – momentum because of the GSP expansion
Abrams 9-7-11 (Jim, “House Votes Could Move Stalled Trade Agenda” Forbes Online)

WASHINGTON - A House vote Wednesday to extend
AND
but still need to be approved by Congress.

Changes to Middle East policy sap Obama’s capital
Khouri 10 (Rami G.,  Editor of the Daily Star, “The Primacy of Domestic Politics”) http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=38679, 4/28/11)

EW YORK - At the end of an extended stay of two months
AND
political cost-benefit analyses.

And, political capital is key to the agenda – especially in election season
Terigopula 11 (Rajiv. Writer for the Harvard Political Review.  “President Obama’s Political Capital,” http://hpronline.org/hprgument/president-obamas-political-capital/ , 7-6)

Much hullabaloo has been made
AND
determine the outcome of the 2012 presidential race.

SKFTA key to the global recovery
Yonhap News Agency 8-10-11

Faced with the risk of its economy
AND
economic benefits will be pronounced."

Continued economic decline will result in global war.
Mead 9 (Walter Russell Mead, Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. The New Republic, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2)

So far, such half-hearted experiments not
AND
we may still have to fight.

US-Israeli security relationship is stable – no real difference on core issues and Obama wont pressure Netanyahu because he needs Jewish voters
Al-Jazeera 11 (TV, Al-Jazeera highlights reactions to Obama's speech, termed "disappointing", s. BBC Monitoring Middle East. London: May 21, 2011)

At 1620 GMT, the channel carried a
AND
if I may use the term here."

Israeli fears of democratization and instability will guide their decision-making – US democracy assistance will upset the current US-Israeli security paradigm
Byman 11 (Daniel, is a Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University and the Research Director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings “Israel’s Pessimistic View Of The Arab Spring”, The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2011)

Americans took heart as they watched Egyptian
AND
that democratization succeeds.

Breaking Israeli confidence in US security support eliminates the key constraint on Israeli decision making forcing a new war with Lebanon
White 10 (Jeffrey, is a defense fellow at The Washington Institute, specializing in the military and security affairs of the Levant, Iraq, and Iran. A thirty-four-year veteran of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). “If War Comes: Israel vs. Hizballah and Its Allies”, Washington Institute, Policy Focus #106 | September 2010)

The broad political context for the
AND
is under continuous strain.

Israeli-Lebanon war would destablize the Middle East
White 10 (Jeffrey, defense fellow at The Washington Institute, specializing in the military and security affairs of the Levant, Iraq, and Iran. A thirty-four-year veteran of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). “If War Comes: Israel vs. Hizballah and Its Allies”, Washington Institute, Policy Focus #106 | September 2010)

Uncertainties aside, the broad outlines discussed
AND
demonstrably achieve its core objectives.

Middle East war causes WWIII
Reuters 7 (quoting Khalilzad  "Middle East turmoil could cause world war: U.S. envoy."
8/27. http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSL2719552620070827)

Upheaval in the Middle East  and Islamic
AND
world," he was quoted as saying. 

1NC EU CP v Egypt Aff

The European Union should:
-develop a Egyptian and European staffed committee of experts to monitor and judge project implementation
-provide workers leaders with technical knowledge on the formation of democratic trade unions and representation and set in place criteria for EU financial support of trade unions to encourage respect of internal democracy
-provide technical knowledge, consultancy and training courses through NGOs established in Egypt for leaders and supporters of the youth movement
-establish new youth initiatives to promote political awareness and democratic culture, prioritizing provinces outside of Cairo
-provide media training to promote professionalism and encourage democratic procedures
-assist in security sector reform by providing training courses on human rights and democracy, providing technical knowledge on rebuilding procedures with an emphasis on branches whose primary role was oppression of opposition activists and set in place criteria and benchmarks for EU financial aid to the security sector
-provide technical assistance, including cooperation through exchange of espertise and experience, to main state institutions such as Ministries of Education and Health
-provide elections and technical assistance including a visible monitoring presence
-exert diplomatic pressure on Egyptian government if human rights violations occur

EU is best suited to solve Egyptian transition to democracy -
de Vasconcelos 7 (Álvaro, has been Director of the EU Institute for Security Studies since May 2007, “The Arab democratic wave: How the EU can seize the moment”, European Union Institute for Security Studies, March 2011)
How can the EU support transition to democracy in Egypt?
AND
supporting the status quo.

High Oil Prices Bad CP

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia should increase its production of oil by an additional 10 million barrels per day.

An increase in Saudi Arabian production capacity would massively lower the price of oil.
Seeking Alpha 6/10/11 (“Saudi Arabia Production Boost Sends Oil Lower” http://seekingalpha.com/news-article/1252834-saudi-arabia-production-boost-sends-oil-lower)

Saudi Arabia's still the boss when it comes to oil.
AND
delivering Saudi Arabia a very public rebuke. 

Soft Power CP

The United States federal government should create an independent agency to develop and implement a comprehensive communication strategy as per our Shanks evidence.

solves the root cause of lost US credibility in the middle east
Shanks 6 (Wayne, Lt Colonel United States Army, “Strategy to increase US credibility”, March 15th, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA449854)

Information, as an element of national power,
AND
understanding of those policies and actions.

New democracy assistance funding will trade off with climate assistance—caps mean there will be no new spending

Lefton 9/13(Rebecca, Researcher for Progressive Media at American Progress, 2011, "The Debt Deal and Budget Process Threaten Critical Climate Aid Funding", http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/09/climate_aid.html)jn

The debt ceiling legislation also created a super committee tasked with AND such as homeland security and defense.

International climate assistance is critical to stabilize carbon emissions

Lefton and Light 2011(Rebecca, Policy Analyst at the Center for American Progress, and Andrew, Senior Fellow and Coordinator of International Climate Policy at the Center for American Progress, April 7, "The Fight Over International Climate Investments", http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/04/intl_climate_investments.html)jn

At this stage in the international climate negotiations AND chance of holding emissions at two degrees.

Global warming leads to extinction

David Stein, Science editor for The Guardian, 7-14-2008, “Global Warming Xtra: Scientists warn about Antarctic melting,”

Global Warming continues to be AND most flora and fauna beloved to man in the world we share.

A. Uniqueness – US-Saudi relations are on the brink now – Arab Spring has intensified disagreements

Grause 8/9/11 (F. Gregory, Political Science Prof at the University of Vermont, “Is Saudi Arabia really counter-revolutionary?” )

While the sectarian issue should be a concern AND  and changing, but it is hardly on the brink of divorce.

B. Link – United States democracy assistance to the Middle East collapses relations with Saudi Arabia

Business Insider 2011 ("What's Really Happening In Bahrain And Why It Matters" LEXIS, SRM)

It appears Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are willing to AND potential opening for Iran in the region.

C. Impact –  Relations decline over the Arab Spring will drive the Saudis to proliferate

Guzansky 7/1/11 (Yoel Guzansky is a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. He joined INSS after serving at Israel's National Security Council; "TEHRAN TESTS SAUDIS' NERVE ON NUKES", LEXIS, SRM)

UNTIL recently it appeared that US security guarantees AND was to build 16 nuclear reactors at a cost of more than $US300 billion.

Saudi prolif leads to fast regional prolif

Center for Contemporary Conflict 4 (“Conference on WMD Proliferation in the Middle East: Directions and Policy Options in the New Century” http://www.ciaonet.org/olj/si/si_3_8/si_3_8_ruj01.pdf)

James Russell from the Naval Postgraduate School presented an AND nuclear noises used as a means to ensure U.S. engagement?

Nuclear proliferation ensures extinction – none of their impact defense applies

Utgoff 2 [Victor, Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analysis, "Proliferation, Missile Defense, and American Ambitions," Survival, Summer, p. 87-90]cn

Further, the large number of states that became capable of building nuclear AND or to be members of a sheriff’s posse, even in the face of nuclear threats.

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//Democratic protests are gaining momentum in Russia and the Caucasus now - Russia can still contain them but not inevitably.

Blank and Salvetz 6/24 (Stephen, professor of Russian National Security Studies at the U.S. Army War College, and Carol, Research Affiliate in the Security Studies Program at MIT "Russia Watches the Arab Spring" June 24, 2011 http://www.rferl.org/content/commentary_russia_watches_arab_spring/24245990.html) Tim

Yet this well-meaning advice only goes so far. AND

muddle through -- both domestically and internationally.

Democracy assistance destroys Russian influence in the Middle East and spreads the democratic contagion to Eurasia.

Mamchur 8/2 (Yuri, Director of the Real Russia Project at the Discovery Institute "Russia may wake up to a more hostile Arab world" August 2, 2011 http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2011/Aug-02/Russia-may-wake-up-to-a-more-hostile-Arab-world.ashx#axzz1TuwvS7Cy) Tim

The dearth of official Russian involvement AND violence has become almost chronic and civil wars are characterized by heavy fighting and heavy weapons.

Russian civil war leads to nuclear war and nuclear terrorism against the US

David 99 (Steven R., Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University, Foreign Affairs Jan 1999)

Should Russia succumb to internal war, the consequences for the United States AND increase this threat more than the chaos that would follow a Russian civil war.

Clinton is focused on Israeli-Palestinian peace process now – Her attention is uniquely key

Calabresi 10 (Massimo, writer for Time Magazine, "Hillary Clinton's Risky Return to Mideast Peace Talks" September 3, 2010 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2015991,00.html)

Hillary Clinton has been notably distant  AND Hillary Clinton now has the point.

Diplomatic capital is finite – each new issue prevents focus on another.

Anderson & Grewell 1 (Terry and Bishop, “The Greening of Foreign Policy,” )

Greater international environmental regulation can AND issues of paramount importance to the nation. 

Diplomatic focus is key to preventing an Israel-Palestine conflict.

Ben-Meir 9 (Alon, professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies, “Obama’s peace offensive,” Yemen Observer, http://www.yobserver.com/opinions/10016963.html, 7-28-9)

Considering this paradoxical reality, both AND the conflict and will only perpetuate the possibility of large scale violence.

Nuclear war.

Nawash 9 (Kamal M, BA, business management, Southeastern Louisiana University, master of laws, international legal studies, American University, Legal Director of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee, “Israel/Palestine Conflict May Lead to Nuclear War,”http://muslimmedianetwork.com/mmn/?p=3501, 15 January)

Once again the Palestinian/Israeli conflict spirals out of control. AND There are no other choices.

Obama wins a tight race in 2012

Weeks and Elving 10-7-11 (Journalists. NPR. One Term, Or Two? Obama Faces Season Of Doubt

 )

Not so fast. "Presidential approval fluctuates for all presidents," AND

he may be re-elected. And this Season of Doubt will be consigned to the history books.

Middle east policy will swing the pro Israel vote in 2012 – that’s key to Obama’s relection 

Senor 9-14-11 (Dan. Wall Street Journal. Why Obama Is Losing the Jewish Vote

He doesn't have a 'messaging' problem. He has a record of bad policies and anti-Israel rhetoric.

New York's special congressional election on Tuesday was the first electoral AND

the Jewish community will return to the fold in 2012.

GOP victory ensures repeal of Obamacare

Kuhn 11 (Daniel.Chief Political Correspondent for RealClearPolitics and the author of The Neglected Voter. He covered the 2008 campaign for Politico and the 2004 campaign for CBSnews.com. Kuhn got his start in national politics as the domestic news intern for Time magazine during the 2000 campaign;    ; “Health Care Law Could Fall, and With It Obama's Legacy”; ;

It was the first minutes of Monday's Republican debate. Michele Bachmann pledged AND last pen off the desk. And simply said, "We are done." We'll see.

Obamacare is key to bioterrorist readiness and checks a smallpox outbreak

Sklar 02 (Holly, Coauthor of “Raise the Floor”, Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service, “Rolling the Dice on Our Nations’ Health”, December 19, )

Imagine if the first people infected in a smallpox attack had AND lives everyday while boosting our readiness for any bioterror attack.

Extinction

Ochs 02 former president of the Aberdeen Proving Ground Superfund Citizens Coalition, member of the Depleted Uranium Task force of the Military Toxics Project, member of the Chemical Weapons Working Group

 “Biological Weapons Must Be Abolished Immediately,” )

Of all the weapons of mass destruction, the genetically AND allow easier use of US bioweapons? How slippery is this slope?

Neg:Gonzaga DH

Round # 2 Tournament:Shirley

Vs Team: Emory AM

Judge: Katie Klante

Off Case Args:

T its/for

Turkey tourism disad with Turkey econ impact

Taxes DA with econ impact

Israel Rleations with Lebanon war impact

CP to create EU forum to discuss DA

CP to have US and EU cooperate on other issues

Case Args:

Credibility:

Democracy impact defense/not solve war

Legitimacy useless

Democratic consolidation impossible

Relations:

Warming and real

Co2 impact turn

EU-US alliance irrelevant

Balkans impact defense/no escalation

Block Strategy:

US-EU relations advantage

Politics

2nr Strategy:

CP to cooperate on other issues

Cred advantage

A2: condo