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1AC - Yemen - AQAP

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

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  AQAP is using governance to take over the Southern provinces – countering them is key to prevent an emirate state and terror attacks

  Zimmerman 11 (Katherine, "Al Qaeda's Gains in South Yemen," American Enterprise Institute, July 8, Zihttp://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/al-qaedas-gains-south-yemen-july-8-2011)

  Islamist militant groups took advantage AND Islamic emirate in south Yemen.

   

  AQAP is planning terrorist attacks – they will be successful

  Boucek 11 (Christopher, Associate of the Middle East Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,  "Alarming Reality in Yemen," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, The Hill, March 9, http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=42938)

  Because of the government’s inability AND  even needing to travel abroad.

   

  The United States killed al-Awlaki yesterday but this won’t have any affect on the groups ability to plot terrorist attacks – it required no actionable intelligence and most of the group is still at large

  Walcott 9-30 (John, "Strike in Yemen Silence al-Qaeda's Most Effective English Voice," Business Week, )

  Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The drone strike in Yemen that AND Yemen to Philadelphia and Chicago.

   

  AQAP in Yemen is strengthening and gearing up for new attacks – Awlaki’s death had no effect on its operational capacity

  Ackerman 9/30 [Spencer Ackerman, “Qaida’s YouTube Preacher Is Killed In Yemen”, September 30, 2011, http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/09/awlaki-dead-yemen/]

  An American citizen responsible for AND  in the US are expected.” 

  Drones are key to decapitating AQAP but lack sufficient intelligence of local terrain

  Sharp 11 (Jeremy, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, "Yemen: Background and US Relations," Congressional Research, March 22, fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/159782.pdf)

  Nevertheless, almost all of AQAP’s key leaders (mentioned above) are alive and most likely still able to plan and conduct terrorist attacks, albeit at greater risk due to heightened U.S.-Yemeni security cooperation. According to Al Qaeda expert Thomas Hegghammer:

  Awlaki is most likely part AND Yemeni counterterrorism cooperation against AQAP.

   

  Status quo efforts will fail because they lack sufficient intelligence

  Barfi 10 (Barak, Independent Analyst who has worked with ABC News Affiliates in the Middle East, "How attacking AQAP influenced its strategy," NATO Review, )

  AQAP’s ability to survive the AND  and reliable local intelligence assets.

  Law enforcement solves AQAP – funding, partnerships and empirics

  Knoetgen 11 (Peter, "Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil," Central European Journal of International and Security Studies," May 16, )

  Like most terror organisations, AQAP AND identifiable “success” that airstrikes would.

  Having the military provide civilian police training is key – intelligence gathering and legitimacy

  Keller 10 (Dennis, "US Military Forces and Police Assistance in Stability Operations: The Least-Worst Option to Fill the US Capacity Gap," US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, August, )

  Establishing an effective local police AND issued by the Greek National

  Yemen is the training ground for terrorism against Saudi Arabia – will attack oil facilities in Saudi Arabia

  Ulrichsen 11 (Kristian, Kuwait Research Fellow in the Kuwait Programme for Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States Centre for the Study of Global Governance at the London SChool of Economics and Political SCience, "The Geopolitics of Insecurity in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula," Middle East Policy Council, )

  The reconstitution of AQAP in AND stability in the Arabian Peninsula.9

  Attacks on Saudi oil facilities collapse the global economy

  Gartenstein-Ross 11 (Daveed, Directs the Center for the Study of Terrorist Radicalization at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, "Osama's Oil Obsession," Foreign Policy, May 23, )

  Bin Laden long believed that AND  that they didn't think about."

  That causes every major impact

  Green and Schrage 9 (Michael J and Steven,.,Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Associate Professor at Georgetown University, the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business and a former senior official with the US Trade Representative's Office, State Department and Ways & Means Committee.   “It's not just the economy,” Asia Times Online, March 26, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html AD 6/30/09)

  Facing the worst economic crisis AND  prospects for more rapid recovery. 
  
  

  Economic decline causes war – studies prove

  Royal, Director Cooperative Threat Reduction DOD, ’10 (Jedediah, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises” in ‘Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives’ ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)

  Less intuitive is how periods AND  debate and deserves more attention

  
  
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1AC - Yemen - Modeling

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  Yemen is the test-case for all of our counterinsurgency operations

  Kotlow 11 (Kazimierz, Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at the Washington Institute, “Countering Extermism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/720-kotlow.pdf)

  Extremism, especially violent extremism, is AND systemic and less personality dependent.

   

  Increasing law enforcement assistance to Yemen is key to the success of all of our regional law enforcement efforts

  McCandless 6 (Matthew, Southeast Asian Specialist on sabbatical from the US Department of State, "Fighting Terror by Indictment: A Review of How the Yemeni Justice Sector is Facing Salafi Jihadist Violence," The Fletcher School Online Journal for issues related to Southwest Asia and Islamic Civilization, Spring, www.humansecuritygateway.com/documents/ALNAKHLAH_ReviewYemeniJusticeSectorFacingJihadistViolence.pdf)

  Launching a successful law enforcement AND in this key Muslim state.

   

   

  Specifically, the plan serves as a model that is exported to Afghanistan

  Mitchell 11 (Robert, Degrees from the University of Michigan, Harvard's China Area Program and Columbia, Foreign Service Officer with USAID, "Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency," Small Wars Journal, August 1, smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/yemen-testing-a-new-coordinated-approach-to-preventive-counterinsurgency)

  An American-designed strategy attempts AND be aborted or significantly amended.

   

  Security training is the Achilles Heel in our Afghanistan strategy – reforms are key

  Johnson and Payne 10 (Andy and Scott, Director of the National Security Program and Senior Policy Advisor of the National Security Program, "Reforming Security Training to Help Defeat Terrorism," The National Security Program Defeating Terrorism Initiative, content.thirdway.org/publications/317/Third_Way_Memo_-_Reforming_Foreign_Security_Training_to_Help_Defeat_Terrorism.pdf)

  A key component of US AND those in Afghanistan if needed.

  Governance focus is key

  Heine 11 (Ben, "How to Invest in Afghanistan's Long-Term Stability," Young Professionalism in Foreign Policy, May 13, )

  Although Osama Bin Laden is AND sectors, and fighting corruption (Gross).

  Only reforms spurred by the plan solves – we already provide substantial training to the ANP

  Johnson and Payne 10 (Andy and Scott, Director of the National Security Program and Senior Policy Advisor of the National Security Program, "Reforming Security Training to Help Defeat Terrorism," The National Security Program Defeating Terrorism Initiative, content.thirdway.org/publications/317/Third_Way_Memo_-_Reforming_Foreign_Security_Training_to_Help_Defeat_Terrorism.pdf)

  To date, the US has spent AND and support the counterterrorism mission.

  A successful ANP is key to Afghan stability

  Caldwell and Finney 11 (Lieutenant General William and Captain Nathan, Commanding General of the NATO Training Mission in Afghanistan and Strategist serving with the NATO Training Mission, "Building Police Capacity in Afghanistan: The Challenges of a Multilateral Approach," National Defense University, Prism2, No. 1,  www.ndu.edu/press/building-police-capacity-in-afghanistan.html)

  Successful counterinsurgency operations and the AND and stability of Afghanistan. PRISM

   

  Collapse of Afghanistan spills over to Pakistan and goes nuclear

  Morgan 7 (Stephen, former member of the British Labour Party National Executive Committee, Author, Political Analyst and Psychologist, "Better another Taliban Afghanistan, than a Taliban NUCLEAR Pakistan!?" YoursDaily, June 3, www.yoursdaily.com/different_views/better_another_taliban_afghanistan_than_a_taliban_nuclear_pakistan)

  However events may prove him AND  Russia pitted against the US

   

  Instability risks spillover to the entirety of Central Asia

  Lal 6 (Rollie, Political Scientist at RAND, "Central Asia and Its Asian Neighbors. Security and Commerce at the Crossroads," Rand Corporation, http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A450305&Location=U2&doc=getTRDoc.pdf)

  The Asian states neighboring Central AND to their own security interests.

   

  Central Asian instability is the most likely scenario for nuclear war – five reasons

  Blank 00 (Stephen J. Blank, Expert on the Soviet Bloc for the Strategic Studies Institute, 2000, “American Grand Strategy and the Transcaspian Region”, World Affairs. 9-22))

  Thus many structural conditions for AND capable of settling the situation.

  
  
• 
  
  

1AC - Yemen - Stability

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• ~/~/ @font-face { font-family: "Arial"; }@font-face { font-family: "Cambria Math"; }@font-face { font-family: "Calibri"; }p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal { margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; }h3 { margin: 12pt 0in 3pt; page-break-after: avoid; font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial; }p.MsoTitle, li.MsoTitle, div.MsoTitle { margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline; }span.Heading3Char { font-family: Arial; font-weight: bold; }p.tag, li.tag, div.tag { margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; font-weight: bold; }span.TitleChar { font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline; }span.StyleStyleBold12pt { font-weight: normal; }span.tagChar1 { font-family: Arial; font-weight: bold; }span.TitleChar1 { font-family: Calibri; color: rgb(23, 54, 93); letter-spacing: 0.25pt; }.MsoChpDefault { font-size: 10pt; }div.WordSection1 { page: WordSection1; } ~/~/~/~/ @font-face { font-family: "Arial"; }@font-face { font-family: "Cambria Math"; }@font-face { font-family: "Calibri"; }p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal { margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; }h3 { margin: 12pt 0in 3pt; page-break-after: avoid; font-size: 13pt; font-family: Arial; }a:link, span.MsoHyperlink { color: blue; text-decoration: underline; }a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed { color: purple; text-decoration: underline; }span.Heading3Char { font-family: Arial; font-weight: bold; }p.tag, li.tag, div.tag { margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; font-weight: bold; }span.underline { font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline; }span.StyleBoldUnderline { font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline; }span.StyleStyleBold12pt { font-weight: normal; }span.tagChar1 { font-family: Arial; font-weight: bold; }p.textbold, li.textbold, div.textbold { margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; text-align: justify; font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline; }.MsoChpDefault { font-size: 10pt; }div.WordSection1 { page: WordSection1; } ~/~/ === {{id name="_Toc303808725"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808518"/}}Yemeni government concessions to reform the patronage system is key to prevent the outbreak of civil war === (% class="MsoNormal" %) {{id name="_Toc303808726"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808519"/}}(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)ICG 11(%%) (International Crisis Group, "Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (II): Yemen between Reform and REvolution," Middle East/North Africa Report No 102, March 10, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)The regime (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)also(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %) mobilised (%%)supporters, AND (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %) reform a failing social contract. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) === {{id name="_Toc303808727"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808520"/}}The opposition has changed their demands from ousting Saleh but peace is tenuous === (% class="MsoNormal" %) {{id name="_Toc303808728"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808521"/}}(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Finn 11(%%) (Tom, "Qaddafi's Fall Rivets Yemen," Foreign Policy, August 23, http:~/~/www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/23/qaddafis_fall_rivets_yemen?page=0,1) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)But now(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %), nearly three months AND (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) and launch more ambitious attacks. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) === {{id name="_Toc303808729"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808522"/}}It doesn’t matter who is in charge – fighting corruption and reform is key === (% class="MsoNormal" %) {{id name="_Toc303808730"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808523"/}}(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Alley 11(%%) (April, "Yemen on the Brink," Foreign Affairs, April 4, http:~/~/www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67699/april-longley-alley/yemen-on-the-brink?page=show) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)If Yemen’s political elites can negotiate a peaceful, honorable transition for Saleh and his kin, they will avert the immediate threat of civil war. (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)But equally important is AND (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)determining the country’s political trajectory. === {{id name="_Toc303808731"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808524"/}}Protests are very likely to turn violent – regional differences and small arms === (% class="MsoNormal" %) {{id name="_Toc303808732"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808525"/}}(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)ICG 11(%%) (International Crisis Group, "Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (II): Yemen between Reform and REvolution," Middle East/North Africa Report No 102, March 10, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)The prospect of violence. Tangible AND (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)current demands for democratic reform. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) === {{id name="_Toc303808735"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808528"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808733"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808526"/}}Assistance creates communication and trust between the government and local actors === (% class="MsoNormal" %) {{id name="_Toc303808734"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808527"/}}(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Greenfield 10(%%) (Danya, Program officer with the Middle East and North Africa division at the Center for International Private Enterprise, "Sustainable Development is Possible in Yemen," Center for American Progress, January 14,http:~/~/www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/01/sustainable_development_yemen.html) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)U.S. policy should focus on (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)AND (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) Iraq working with tribal groups. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) === Democracy assistance is key – muzzles the pressure for civil war === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Boucek et al 10(%%) (Christopher [Jeffrey Feltman, Robert Godec, Leslie Campbell, Bruce Reidel and Jonathan Schanzer], Associate, Middle East Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Assistant Secretary of State, Principle Deputy Coordinator of Counterterrorism at the State Department, Senior Associate Regional Director for Middle East and North Africa at the NDI, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Vice President for Research at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, YEMEN ON THE BRINK: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. AND not repressed as they are (% class="MsoNormal" %) === {{id name="_Toc303808750"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808543"/}}Yemeni instability causes Saudi draw-in and escalates regionally === (% class="MsoNormal" %) {{id name="_Toc303808751"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808544"/}}(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Salmoni et al 10(%%) (Barak [Bryce Loidolt and Madeleine Wells], "Regime and Periphery in Northern Yemen," RAND Corporation, April 28, http:~/~/www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG962.html) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Over the past three years, AND (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) where the Qatar process ended. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === {{id name="_Toc303808752"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808545"/}}The US gets drawn in – causes regional instability === (% class="MsoNormal" %) {{id name="_Toc303808753"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808546"/}}(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Red State 11(%%) (Most Widely Read Right of Center Blog in America, "What happens if the Saudi Regime collapses?" June 5, http:~/~/www.redstate.com/gawken/2011/06/05/what-happens-if-the-saudi-regime-collapses/) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)If the Middle East were AND on as it has been. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Middle East conflict triggers nuclear warfare—end of the Cold War increased the risk of escalation === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Primakov 9(%%) (Yevgeny, President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation; Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences; member of the Editorial Board of Russia in Global Affairs. This article is based on the scientific report for which the author was awarded the Lomonosov Gold Medal of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2008, “The Middle East Problem in the Context of International Relations” RUSSIA IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS VOL. 7 • No. 3 • JULY – SEPTEMBER) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)__The Middle East conflict is __(%%)__AND __(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) rule out such a possibility. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Most likely scenario for nuclear conflict - lack of security framework and historical rivalries. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Russell 9(%%) (James A. "Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East", Naval Postgraduate School, http:~/~/www.nps.edu/academics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/russell/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Strategic stability(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) in the region (% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)AND risk for the entire world. ~*~**New Impact Scenario - Saudi-Iran Proxy-War === {{id name="_Toc303808759"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808552"/}}Saudi intervention in Yemen causes a hot war with Iran === (% class="MsoNormal" %) {{id name="_Toc303808760"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808553"/}}(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Guitta 11(%%) (Olivier, Adjunct Fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and foreign affairs and counterterrorism consultant based in Europe, "Iran and Saudi at War in Yemen," CSO Roundtable, https:~/~/www.csoroundtable.org/knowledge/iran-and-saudi-arabia-war-yemen) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Yemen has become the new haven for Al Qaeda fighters fleeing Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq and has also been under the attack of Iran-backed Huthi rebels. (% class="TitleChar" %)The new AND (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)between the two regional powers. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === {{id name="_Toc303808761"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808554"/}}Multiple religious and geopolitical incentives to escalate === (% class="MsoNormal" %) {{id name="_Toc303808762"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808555"/}}(% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Henne 10(%%) (Peter, doctoral candidate at Georgetown University and Security Fellow with the Truman National Security Project, "Thinking Through Action in Yemen, January 8, http:~/~/www.realclearworld.com/articles/2010/01/08/thinking_through_action_in_yemen_97468.html) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Shiite rebels-known as the AND a year in office. (% class="tag" %) {{id name="_Toc303808763"/}}{{id name="_Toc303808556"/}} === War goes nuclear – Israel strikes === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)UPI 9(%%) (United Press International, "Saudi-Yemen Conflict sharpens region's rivalries," December 1,http:~/~/www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2009/12/01/Saudi-Yemen-conflict-sharpens-regions-rivalries/UPI-23441259705297/) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="TitleChar" %)Saudi Arabia's escalating war against AND (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)sign it's about to diminish.

  
  
• 
  
  

1AC - Yemen - Women

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• ~/~/ @font-face { font-family: "Arial"; }@font-face { font-family: "Cambria Math"; }@font-face { font-family: "Calibri"; }p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal { margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; }h1 { margin: 24pt 0in 0.0001pt; page-break-after: avoid; font-size: 16pt; font-family: Calibri; color: rgb(52, 90, 138); }p.MsoHeader, li.MsoHeader, div.MsoHeader { margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; }a:link, span.MsoHyperlink { color: blue; text-decoration: underline; }a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed { color: purple; text-decoration: underline; }span.HeaderChar { font-family: Calibri; }span.cite { font-family: Arial; font-weight: bold; }p.tag, li.tag, div.tag { margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; font-weight: bold; }p.card, li.card, div.card { margin: 0in 0.2in 0.0001pt; font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial; }span.underline { font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline; }p.BlockTitle, li.BlockTitle, div.BlockTitle { margin: 0in 0in 12pt 0.5in; text-align: center; page-break-after: avoid; font-size: 16pt; font-family: Arial; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline; }span.tagChar1 { font-family: Arial; font-weight: bold; }p.textbold, li.textbold, div.textbold { margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; text-align: justify; font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline; }span.Heading1Char { font-family: Calibri; color: rgb(52, 90, 138); font-weight: bold; }.MsoChpDefault { font-size: 10pt; }div.WordSection1 { page: WordSection1; } ~/~/ === (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)The protests against Saleh create an opportunity to gain tribal and opposition support for greater women’s participation in politics(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Almasmari and Jamjoom 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Hakim Almasmari and Mohammed Jamjoom, “Yemeni women: President is degrading us”, CNN.com, April 16, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) "(% class="underline" %)Saleh has(%%) finally (% class="underline" %)shown AND Yemeni revolution and men follow(%%)." (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"Times New Roman~";" %) === US support for increased women’s representation in Yemeni government is necessary for any future reform. Only acting now will prevent retrenchment. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)IFES 11 (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (International Foundation for Electoral Systems, “New Challenges, Opportunities for Women’s Political Participation in the Middle East”, August 16, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="underline" %)As popular movements across the AND in a successful democratic transition. \\ === (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)US assistance is effective in promoting reform in Yemen. We must increase assistance now for women to gain lasting improvements from the Arab Spring.(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Hudson and Leidl 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Valerie M. Hudson is professor of political science at BYU, and Patricia Leidl is an international communications consultant currently working in Afghanistan. “The Arab Intifada and Women's Rights”, World Politics Review, February 2, ) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" %)The massive, exhilarating protests in(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) AND (% class="underline" %)once the current dictatorships fall(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;" %) === (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Democracy assistance is necessary to promote effective women candidates. Only explicit focus on political processes can overcome patriarchal barriers to women’s participation.(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Sabbagh 5 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Amal Sabbagh is a former Secretary General of the Jordanian National Commission for Women (JNCW), “The Arab States: Enhancing Women’s Political Participation” //Women in Parliament: Beyond Numbers//, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" %)Patriarchal structures are entrenched within AND parties to nominate more women(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %) === (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Women’s political participation is the best way to challenge patriarchy(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Sabbagh 5 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Amal Sabbagh is a former Secretary General of the Jordanian National Commission for Women (JNCW), “The Arab States: Enhancing Women’s Political Participation” //Women in Parliament: Beyond Numbers//, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) ‘(% class="underline" %)The women’s movement(%%)…(% class="underline" %)is the AND (%%)harbingers of a better future. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Political process support and dedicated funding for increasing women’s participation in electoral politics challenges the institutional masculinity of traditional state structures. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Karam 5 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Azza Karam is Senior Policy Research Advisor in the Arab Human Development Report Unit of the United Nations Development Programme, “Conclusions”, //Women in Parliament: Beyond Numbers, //) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" %)It is(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) relatively (% class="underline" %)easy to AND (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)and their efforts are assessed. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Systemic discrimination against women leads to violence and the denial of legal personhood. This denial of agency can only be overcome by political participation and involvement in policymaking. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Hoveyda 2005 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Ambassador Fereydoun Hoveyda is the Middle East project director of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy “Arab Women and the Future of the Middle East”, American Foreign Policy Interests No. 27, ) (% class="card" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Another panelist began her remarks AND and inseparable (% class="underline" %)part of it. === === === === === Systemic discrimination in Yemen leads to widespread violence against women, only political reform can solve === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Amnesty International 9 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (“YEMENI WOMEN FACE VIOLENCE AND DISCRIMINATION”, November 25, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" %)Women in Yemen face systemic AND access to their human rights(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Plan Text === === === === The United States federal government should increase assistance for Yemeni political parties and organizations to increase women’s participation and leadership. === === (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Now is a window of opportunity to promote lasting women’s rights improvements in Yemen. Democracy assistance and electoral support now can create a stable transition and improvements in women’s political status.(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)POMED 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Project on Middle East Democracy, “Women in the Middle East: Attitudes and Advocacy in an Opening Political Space” The International Foundation for Electoral Systems, Interaction Forum Notes, August 12, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) Next, Rana Jarhum discussed (% class="underline" %)the AND is secured by opposing groups(%%). === === === === === (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)US democracy assistance is effective at promoting women’s participation in Yemeni elections.(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Campbell 10 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Leslie Campbell is senior associate and regional director for the Middle East and north Africa at the National Democratic Institute in the United States, “Party-building in the Middle East”, International Journal, Summer, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) From a technical vantage point, (% class="underline" %)AND persists that progress will continue(%%). === === === === === (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)The problems facing Yemeni women are distinct, democracy assistance must be targeted to local conditions to be effective.(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Sabbagh 5 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Amal Sabbagh is a former Secretary General of the Jordanian National Commission for Women (JNCW), “The Arab States: Enhancing Women’s Political Participation” //Women in Parliament: Beyond Numbers//, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, ) (% class="card" %) (% class="card" %) The above examples provide a AND measures and measures during elections. === === === === === (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)We need democracy assistance and women’s participation in politics to build coalitions against discrimination. Support for political programs complements the larger women’s movement.(%%) === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Sabbagh 5 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Amal Sabbagh is a former Secretary General of the Jordanian National Commission for Women (JNCW), “The Arab States: Enhancing Women’s Political Participation” //Women in Parliament: Beyond Numbers//, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" %)The non-democratic systems or AND of priorities, opportunities and challenges. === === === === === Debates about the implementation of policies and strategies to improve women’s participation in Yemeni politics offers a chance to examine our own political inequalities. === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Kennedy-Glans 6 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Donna Kennedy-Glans is the founder and executive director of Bridges Social Development, a Canadian registered charity providing capacity building in Yemen, “Gender Jihad: Enhancing Female Access in Politics”, Yemen Online, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Of course, (% class="underline" %)not everyone AND implementation strategies that have impact(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %). === === === === === Debates about women in Yemeni politics allow us to dispel myths about women in politics, leading to real improvements in our thinking about gender and politics === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Kennedy-Glans 6 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Donna Kennedy-Glans is the founder and executive director of Bridges Social Development, a Canadian registered charity providing capacity building in Yemen, “Gender Jihad: Enhancing Female Access in Politics”, Yemen Online, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) Perhaps (% class="underline" %)we(%%) first (% class="underline" %)need to AND country’s experiences with gender jihad. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %)

  
  
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Plan texts - Yemen

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• === 1AC - Police === === Text: The United States Department of Defense should substantially increase its support for community-based policing in Yemen. === === 1AC - Governance === === {{id name="133012dad590acab__Toc303808637"/}}{{id name="133012dad590acab__Toc303808430"/}}Text: The United States federal government should substantially increase its support for local government institutions in Yemen. ===

  
  
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2AC - Politics - UNLV

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• Thumper – Bahrain arms deal (% class="card" %) Uckman 10-13-11 (Journalist. Washington Post. U.S. arms deal to Bahrain faces resistance. ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" %)Pressure is building on (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)the (% class="underline" %)AND term, I see only complications.” (% class="tag" %) (% class="tag" %) Obama spending all political capital on jobs (% class="card" %) Jackson 10-12-11 (David. Journalist. USA Today. Obama jobs bill: Dead legislatively, alive politically (% class="card" %) ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)The Senate confirmed something last night AND (% class="underline" %) back to work(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)," Cantor said. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) Obamas going all-in on jobs (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="tagChar1" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Marshal 10-13-11(%%) (John. Journalist. TPM. Plates Shifting (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) ) (% class="card" %) (% class="card" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)And remember (% class="underline" %)the(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) deficit (% class="underline" %)super-committee(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)? (% class="underline" %)AND (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)bigger deal than we realize. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) Political capital low now (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="tagChar" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Page 10-12-11(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (Clarence. Chicago Tribune. Barack Obama's lonely presidency (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (% class="card" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) Sure, Obama barnstormed the country, AND narrative that sounds even worse. (% class="tag" %) (% class="tag" %) Political capital wrong – doesn’t dictate agenda (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Dickinson 9(%%) (Matthew, professor of political science at Middlebury College, May 26, "Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power, "http:~/~/blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/) (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)What is of more interest to me,AND to present Sotomayor as his nominee. (% class="tag" %) (% class="tag" %) Casey supports the plan (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Edgerton 11(%%) (Jared, "Unrest in Yemen Could Have "Significant Impact" on US National Security, Casey Says at Hearing and in Op-Ed," Politics PA, August 1, http:~/~/www.politicspa.com/unrest-in-yemen-could-have-significant-impact-on-u-s-national-security-casey-says-at-hearing-and-in-op-ed/26578/) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)As many of his colleagues AND national security goals,” he wrote. (% class="tag" %) (% class="tag" %) Casey is key – clout, bipartisanship, committee seats (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Zito 10(%%) (Salena, "State's heavyweight political clout growing thin," Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, February 21, http:~/~/www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/pittsburgh/s_668267.html) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)"Seniority is much more significant AND (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)jobs, and work-force development." (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (% class="tag" %) Wins regenerate political capital (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Singer 9(%%) (Jonathan ~-~- senior writer and editor for MyDD. My Direct Democracy, 3-3-09, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)From the latest NBC News AND ending the war in Iraq. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (% class="tag" %) Obama won’t push the plan – Military (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)McFaul 5(%%) (Michael, Professor of Political Science at Stanford, "What Democracy Assistance is...and is not," Hoover Institution, January 30, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Do these American democracy assistance AND present in many countries today(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %). (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"Times New Roman~";" %) (% style="font-size: 16pt; font-family: Arial; text-decoration: none;" %)**__ __**

  
  
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2AC - Saudi DA - UNLV

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• (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt; font-weight: normal;" %)Palestinian vote thumps the DA (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Calabresi 9-13(%%) (Massimo, Washington Bureau of Time Magazine, "Saudi Threatens US Over Palestinian Statehood Veto," Time Swampland, swampland.time.com/2011/09/13/saudi-threatens-u-s-over-palestinian-statehood-veto/?iid=sl-main-lede) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Last night’s GOP presidential debate AND the U.S.’s desire for talks. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) Relations are really resilient – their internal link arguments are hype (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Zeigler 11(%%) (Lucien, Research Director at Saudi-U.S. Trade Group~,~, "Could US-Saudi Relationship Emerge Stronger After 'Arab Spring'?" Informationchaos, March 18, informationchaos.com/2011/03/18/could-us-saudi-relationship-emerge-stronger-after-arab-spring/) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)However (%%)//there is a massive AND //(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)and balancing external regional threats. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) Lots of alt causes and relations resilient (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Fifield 11(%%) (Anna, "Arab spring tests US-Saudi relationship," Financial TImes, June 16, www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4082dc70-984d-11e0-ae45-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Y5nHnjP4) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)But tensions have risen(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) in AND (%%)//Moscow? Islamabad? I don’t think so//(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %).” (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) Saudi Arabia is in favor of transition – perceives the aff as stability (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Knickmeyer 11(%%) (Ellen, Former Washington Post Middle East Bureau Chief and Associated Press Africa Bureau Chief, "Trouble Down South," Foreign Policy, July 5, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/07/05/trouble_down_south?page=full) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)These days, in a further blurring AND (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)bring new elections in Yemen. (% class="tag" %) (% class="tag" %) Plan increases co-operation with Saudi Arabia over yemen (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Boucek 11(%%) (Christopher, "US-Saudi Relations in the Shadow of the Arab Spring," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 21, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Very rarely do U.S. officials AND(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) oil market doesn’t get overheated. (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"Times New Roman~";" %)

  
  
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2AC - EU CP

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• Doesn’t solve AQAP (% class="tag" %) 1) Co-operation (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Bodine 10(%%) (Barbara, Lecturer and Diplomat-in-Residence at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, "Yemen: Primer and Prescriptions," Prism, National Defense University Press, June, http:~/~/www.ndu.edu/press/yemen.html) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)This is an ambitious program AND (% class="underline" %)relations(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) and programs with Yemen. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="tag" %) 2) Intelligence sharing (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Mitchell 11(%%) (Robert, Former Foreign Service Officer with USAID, Earned Degrees from the University of Michigan, Harvard’s China Area Program and Columbia, “Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency,” Small Wars Journal, August 1, smallwarsjournal.com/node/11077) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Even the best of Yemen‘s AND t(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)heir respective projects in Yemen. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="tag" %) 3) Relationships with civil society networks (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Burke 10(%%) (Edward, Researcher at FRIDE, "Assessing Democracy Assistance: Yemen," FRIDE, May, http:~/~/www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Yemen_ENG_jul10.pdf) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Among NGOs, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)the US isAND (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)in Yemen than European donors. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) The EU won’t support counterterrorism operations (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Pleschinger 6(%%) (Stefanie, Graduate of the International Relations Masters Program at Yale, “Allied Against Terror: Transatlantic Intelligence Cooperation,” Yale Journal, Fall/Winter, yalejournal.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/062106pleschinger.pdf) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Disagreements between EU member state AND (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) the global fight against terrorism.29 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) The United States won't accept EU intel (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Pleschinger 6(%%) (Stefanie, Graduate of the International Relations Masters Program at Yale, “Allied Against Terror: Transatlantic Intelligence Cooperation,” Yale Journal, Fall/Winter, yalejournal.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/062106pleschinger.pdf) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)The perceived lack of strategic AND that conform to its interests. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="tag" %) Yemen wont cooperate or will only make symbolic moves and heavy US presence undermines local and competing relationships (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Wennerholm et al 10(%%) (Peter [Erik Brattberg and Mark Rhinard], “The EU as a counterter-terrorism actor abroad: finding opportunities, overcoming constraints,” EPC Issue Paper No. 60, September, http:~/~/www.epc.eu/pub_details.php?cat_id=2&pub_id=1152) (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) The (% class="underline" %)case studies reveal common AND the face of vested interests. (% class="underline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"Times New Roman~";" %) (% class="underline" style="font-family: Arial; text-decoration: none;" %)

  
  
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2AC - Turkey CP

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• Turkey can’t solve – lack of resources, knowledge, experience (% class="tag" %) SETA Foundation 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) ("New Turkey and the Arab Spring" April 20, 2011, setadc.org/publications/354-new-turkey-and-the-arab-spring) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)During previous crises(% class="underline" %), (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Turkey was (%%)AND (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) intellectual response for each fresh situation. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) Decline in relations with Israel and Syria prove that Turkey has no legitimacy as a regional actor. (% class="tag" %) Botez 8/24/11 (% style="font-weight: normal;" %)(Nikolaus, “Security Challenges Raise Questions of Turkey’s Regional Power Status”) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" %)Turkey does not only face AND (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)as a regional power. (% class="tag" %) (% class="underline" style="font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="tag" %) Only the aff solves AQAP – anti-Americanism (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Gnehm 10(%%)(Amb. Edward, Kuwait Professor of Gulf and Arabian Peninsula Affairs at the George Washington University, "A Focus on Yemen," The 2010 Annual Kuwait Chair Lecture, March 4, http:~/~/elliott.gwu.edu/news/speeches/gnehm_kuwait_chair_0310_yemen.cfm) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)In Yemen AQAP(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) has (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)found (%%)AND an environment fraught with uncertainties. (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"Times New Roman~";" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="text-decoration: none;" %)

  
  
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2AC - Development CP

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• Good governance and corruption are the __vital__ internal link to solving extremism – restores legitimacy and undermines terrorist recruitment (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)BPC 11(%%) (Co-Chairs Ambassador Paula Dobriansky and Admiral (Ret.) Gregory Johnson, "A Stitch in Time: Stabilizing Fragile States," Bipartisan Policy Center, May, http:~/~/www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/FS_Final.pdf) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)//The issue of good governmental //(%%)//AND //(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)one-third of the country’s provinces.64 (% class="tag" %) (% class="tag" %) Several structural problems with development assistance prevent solvency (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Boucek and Ottaway 10(%%) (Christopher and Marina, Associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program and Director of the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,"Yemen on the Brink," Kindle) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Irrespective of whether the approach AND (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)a hodgepodge of separate projects. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %)

  
  
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2AC - Soft Power Add-On

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• ~/~/ @font-face { font-family: "Arial"; }@font-face { font-family: "Cambria Math"; }@font-face { font-family: "Calibri"; }p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal { margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; }p.MsoHeader, li.MsoHeader, div.MsoHeader { margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; }span.HeaderChar { }span.cite { font-family: Arial; font-weight: bold; }p.tag, li.tag, div.tag { margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: Arial; font-weight: bold; }p.card, li.card, div.card { margin: 0in 0.2in 0.0001pt; font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial; }span.underline { font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline; }span.StyleStyleBold12pt { font-weight: bold; }p.textbold, li.textbold, div.textbold { margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; text-align: justify; font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline; }span.tagChar1 { font-family: Arial; font-weight: bold; }span.cardChar1 { font-family: Arial; }span.StyleBoldUnderline { font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline; }.MsoChpDefault { font-size: 10pt; }div.WordSection1 { page: WordSection1; } ~/~/(% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt; font-weight: normal;" %)The plan is key to US Soft Power (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tagChar1" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Zarate and Gordon 11(%%) (Juan, Senior Adviser @ CSIS and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism, and David, Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, The Battle for Reform with al-Qaeda, http:~/~/www.twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Zarate_Gordon.pdf) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Admittedly, in many quarters, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)the AND end of the long war. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Soft power is key to solve every major impact (% class="MsoNormal" %) Lex (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Rieffel(%%), Former U.S. Treasury official and a graduate professor at George Washington University, (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)2005(%%), “Reaching Out: Americans Serving Overseas”, NM, http:~/~/www.brookings.edu/views/papers/20051207rieffel.pdf (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Accordingly, (% class="underline" %)one of the great AND rely more on “soft” instruments (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %)

  
  
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Round Reports

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• Round 1 Aff vs MoSt FR Judge: Brovero Text: The United States Special Operations Command should expand its civil military support element to support the capacity, transparency, and oversight of local government institutions in Yemen. adv: aqap- suez intervention, protectionism group think- crisis escalation, preemption \\

  
  
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Round 1 Wake vs. MoState FR

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• (% style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: ~"Times New Roman~",~"serif~";" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)CONTENTION ONE: AQAP (% class="MsoNormal" %) === AQAP has the capability and motive === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Boucek 11(%%) (Christopher, Associate of the Middle East Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, "Alarming Reality in Yemen," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, The Hill, March 9, http:~/~/carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=42938) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="TitleChar" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Because of the government’s inability (% class="TitleChar" %)AND even needing to travel abroad. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Decapitating the __local__ leadership is key to prevent attacks – Awlaki, Khan and Asiri don’t matter === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Koehler-Derrick 10-3(%%) (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Defensive measures must complement the AND (% class="TitleChar" %)eventual defeat of the group. === Only expanding the United States reach outside of Sana’a allows us to find them === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Koehler-Derrick 10-3(%%) (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)A strategy focused on (% class="TitleChar" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)eliminating (% class="TitleChar" %)AND (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) engage with the Yemeni populace. 473 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) === The plan secures successful CT missions – partnerships and trust === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Fiack et al 10(%%) (William [WIlliam Roberts and Timothy Sulick], Liutenants in the United States Navy, "Integrating Defense, Diplomacy and Development (3D) In the Naval Special Warfare Operator," Naval Postgraduate School, December, edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2010/Dec/10Dec_Fiack.pdf) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="TitleChar" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)A primary role for the (% class="TitleChar" %)AND strategic foothold in any country. === Special forces focus on democracy is key – trust, intelligence, and recruitment === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Paulhus 11(%%) (Matthew, "Beyond Afghanistan and Pakistan: Responding to Al-Qaeda's Threat in Yemen and Africa," Countering Al-Qaeda's Ideology: Re-Assessing US Policy Ten Years After 9/11, Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies Task Force Rhttps:~/~/digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/bitstream/handle/1773/16495/Task%20Force%20O%202011.pdf?sequence=1) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="TitleChar" %)Build trust with governments AND of addressing their own issues (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Assistance to tribes roots out AQAP support and ensures intelligence co-operation === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Berger 10 (%%)(Collin, "America's Land of Opportunity: Supporting Yemen's Fight Against Terrorism," American Foreign Policy, Princeton Student Editorials on Global Politics, December 1, afpprinceton.com/2010/12/america’s-land-of-opportunity-supporting-yemen’s-fight-against-terrorism/) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="TitleChar" %)The U.S. should strengthen the AND (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) groups or suppress political dissent. (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Empirics prove – CMSE support for governance staves off military intervention by the United States === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Lightsey 10(%%) (Ross, Major Assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School's 1st Warfare Training Group, Combat Tours Include Commander of a CMSE with elements in Pakistan, Tajikstan and Yemen, "Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in Centcom," Special Warfare, May-June, Vol. 23, Issue 3, afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Nonkinetic strategy (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)In a 2009 article in AND (% class="TitleChar" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %) right thing at the right time. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) === Status quo will allow AQAP to merge with Al-Shabaab – collapses global trade === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Yuriditsky 9-28(%%) (Lev, Graduate Student of Middle Eastern Studies at Tel Aviv University, "Yemen's Chaos," yuriditsky.blogspot.com/2011/09/yemens-chaos-august-2011.html) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="TitleChar" %)As the situation in Yemen AND(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) for protection against heavy shelling. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) === AQAP is a key force multiplier for Al-Shabaab === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Zimmerman 9-20(%%) (Katherine, "Ten Years After 9/11: Al Qaeda's Reemergence in Yemen," American Enterprise Institute Critical Threats, www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/zimmerman-qaeda-reemergence-september-20-2011) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)AQAP has significantly increased its AND (% class="Emphasis2" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)sharing of tactics, techniques, and procedures. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) === Closing down the Bab-el-Mandeb shuts down the Suez Canal === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Watkins 10(%%) (Eric, Editor of Oil Diplomacy, “Al-Qaeda’s new oil strategy,” Oil and Gas Journal, February 15, Lexis) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)The oil and gas industry has AND the world's oil reserves are." (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) === Immediately collapses the world economy === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Sterne 11(%%) (Paul, Managing Partner at Sterne and Co, “Egypt's Second Suez Canal Crisis” Ground Report, Jaunary 30, http:~/~/www.groundreport.com/World/Second-Suez-Crisis/2933579) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="TitleChar" %)Egypt matters for one reason – AND Egypt began will look tame(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %). === Surging commodity prices push us over the edge === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Schuman 11(%%) (Michael, “Does the turmoil in Egypt threaten the global recovery?” TIME Magazine, February 2, http:~/~/curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)How Egypt evolves in the next AND experience a double-dip recession. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) === Independently, Suez closure causes military intervention and nuclear war === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Nazemroaya 11(%%) (Mahdi Darius, Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization, "The Division of Egypt: Threats of US, Israeli, and NATO Military Intervention," Centre for Research on Globalization, February 7, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="TitleChar" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)There is also the chance AND overseas and domestic militarization(% class="TitleChar" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 11pt; color: black;" %)**The impact is global nuclear war** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 11pt; color: black;" %)**Panzner 8**(% class="apple-converted-space" style="color: black;" %) (% style="color: black;" %)(Michael, faculty at the New York Institute of Finance, 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and JPMorgan Chase,(% class="apple-converted-space" %) (%%)“Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse”, Revised and Updated Edition, p. 136-138, googlebooks) (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: 0.2in;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; color: black;" %)Continuing(% class="apple-converted-space" %) (% style="color: black;" %)**__calls for__**(% class="apple-converted-space" style="color: black;" %) (% style="color: black; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% fuchsia;" %)**__curbs AND__**(% style="font-size: 8pt; color: black;" %) of a new world war. (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: 0.2in;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt; color: black;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Plan Text: The United States Special Operations Command should expand its Civil Military Support Element to support the capacity, transparency, and oversight of local government institutions in Yemen. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)CONTENTION TWO: GROUP THINK (% class="MsoNormal" %) === United States strategy in Yemen is entirely based around kinetic actions – we’re using drones at the expense of other efforts === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Johnsen 11(%%) (Gregory, PhD Candidate in Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, "Drones Instead of Strategy" Waq al-Waq, July 21, bigthink.com/ideas/39394) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Now, contrary to what some AND easily replaced by new recruits. === This is indicative of a broader military group-think – strategists overly emphasize combat operations === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Howard 4(%%) (Major James R., Major in the British Army, “Preparing for War, Stumbling to Peace: Planning for Post-conflict Operations in Iraq,” School of Advanced Military Studies at the United States Army Command and General Staff College,. smallwarsjournal.com/documents/howard.pdf) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="TitleChar" %)The new doctrine of Rapid, AND nation building operations with disdain.80 === Yemen’s key- the approach will be the model === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Mitchell 11(%%) (Robert, Degrees from the University of Michigan, Harvard's China Area Program and Columbia, Foreign Service Officer with USAID, "Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency," Small Wars Journal, August 1, smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/yemen-testing-a-new-coordinated-approach-to-preventive-counterinsurgency) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="TitleChar" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)An American-designed strategy(% class="TitleChar" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)attempts (%%)AND targeting ted or significantly amended. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Increasing Civil-Military support elements is key to solidify the whole-of-government approach to our global COIN efforts === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Kotlow 11(%%) (Kazimierz, Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at the Washington Institute, “Countering Extermism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/720-kotlow.pdf) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Extremism, especially violent extremism, is AND systemic and less personality dependent. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) === Military group-think causes World War III – triggers every conflict scenario === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Chussudovsky 10(%%) (Michel, Professor of Economics at the University of Ottowa and Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization, "Preparing for World War III, Targeting Iran," centre for Research on Globalization, August 1, www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?aid=20403&context=va) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="TitleChar" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Humanity is at a dangerous (% class="TitleChar" %)AND allies to trigger regional wars. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="text-decoration: none;" %)**__ __** === Empirics prove group-think ensures crisis escalation – eight reasons === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Schneider 3(%%) (Barry, Director of the US Air Force Counterproliferation Center, "Deterring International Rivals from War and Escalation," Know Thy Enemy: Profiles of Adversary Leaders and their Strategic Cultures," Air War Journal, July, www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cpc-pubs/know_thy_enemy/schneider.pdf) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="TitleChar" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Decisions(% class="TitleChar" %) taken (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)during periods of (%%)AND (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) and morality of their decisions === The plan solves group think === === 1) Adaptive decision-making and interagency co-ordination === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Lightsey 10(%%) (Ross, Major Assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School's 1st Warfare Training Group, Combat Tours Include Commander of a CMSE with elements in Pakistan, Tajikstan and Yemen, "Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in Centcom," Special Warfare, May-June, Vol. 23, Issue 3, afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)In ongoing irregular conflicts, the AND image abroad and implements strategy.”4 (% class="MsoNormal" %) === 2) Forces military strategists to think like civilians – overcomes institutional hardening === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Shemella 6(%%) (Paul, Program Manager for Combatting Terrorism at the Center for Civil-Military Relations at the Naval Postgraduate School, “Interagency Coordination: The Other Side of CIMIC,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 17, No. 4, December, www.ccmr.org/public/library_file_proxy.cfm/lid/5621) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Although CIMIC has become a AND often than constructive cooperation. === The plan changes mindsets of decision-makers that overcomes group-think by forcing co-operation in crisis environments === (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Shemella 6(%%) (Paul, Program Manager for Combatting Terrorism at the Center for Civil-Military Relations at the Naval Postgraduate School, “Interagency Coordination: The Other Side of CIMIC,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 17, No. 4, December, www.ccmr.org/public/library_file_proxy.cfm/lid/5621) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="TitleChar" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Decision-makers can create interagency (% class="TitleChar" %)AND their governments require for success. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="underline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 16pt; text-decoration: none;" %)**__ __** (% class="BlockTitle" %) T (% class="tag" %) We Meet: The CMSE mission is assisting governance (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Lightsey 10(%%) (Ross, Major Assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School's 1st Warfare Training Group, Combat Tours Include Commander of a CMSE with elements in Pakistan, Tajikstan and Yemen, "Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in Centcom," Special Warfare, May-June, Vol. 23, Issue 3, afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888) (% class="MsoNormal" %) CMSE mission (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)The CMSE mission is to AND(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %), DoD, NGOs and partner nations. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (% class="tag" %) We meet direct political variables, improve local tribes political structures (% class="tag" %) (% class="tag" %) Counter-interpretation democracy assistance is four categories (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)GAO 3(%%) (Government Accountability Office, GAO-03-358 Democracy Assistance ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)__Democracy assistance has four major __(% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)__AND__(%%)as do several bilateral donors (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) The aff is predictable – governance is the majority of democracy assistance (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)GAO 9(%%) (Government Accountability Office, “DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE U.S. Agencies Take Steps to Coordinate International Programs but Lack Information on Some U.S.-funded Activities,” September, http:~/~/pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB950.pdf) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Although (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)State/F (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)information systems (%%)AND (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)each country’s Freedom House rating.) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="text-decoration: none;" %)**__ __** (% class="tag" %) Err aff – democracy assistance is a weak mechanism, there’s no literature about it and an overwhelming propensity for negative generics (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)McFaul 7(%%) (Michael, Professor at Stanford, “Democracy Promotion: Cornerstone of U.S. Foreign Policy,” Quoted in Congressional Research Service Report to Congress, December 26, www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34296.pdf) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Measuring the effects of democracy AND democracy promotion (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)do not exist. 6 (% style="font-size: 16pt; font-family: ~"Arial~",~"sans-serif~";" %)**__ __**(%%)*2AC – Saudi Relations (% class="tag" %) The US has switched on Saleh (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Shaffer 11(%%) (Matthew, "Yemen: United States Now Supports Saleh's Ouster," National Review Online, April 4, http:~/~/www.nationalreview.com/mideast-watch/263789/yemen-united-states-now-supports-salehs-ouster-matthew-shaffer) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)According to the Times, (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Obama(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) AND a little over a week ago. (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %) (% class="tag" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Palestinian vote thumps the DA (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Calabresi 9-13(%%) (Massimo, Washington Bureau of Time Magazine, "Saudi Threatens US Over Palestinian Statehood Veto," Time Swampland, swampland.time.com/2011/09/13/saudi-threatens-u-s-over-palestinian-statehood-veto/?iid=sl-main-lede) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Last night’s GOP presidential debate AND , reiterating the U.S.’s desire for talks. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) Relations are really resilient – their internal link arguments are hype (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Zeigler 11(%%) (Lucien, Research Director at Saudi-U.S. Trade Group~,~, "Could US-Saudi Relationship Emerge Stronger After 'Arab Spring'?" Informationchaos, March 18, informationchaos.com/2011/03/18/could-us-saudi-relationship-emerge-stronger-after-arab-spring/) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)However (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)//there is a massive //(%%)//AND//(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)and balancing external regional threats. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) Lots of alt causes and relations resilient (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Fifield 11(%%) (Anna, "Arab spring tests US-Saudi relationship," Financial TImes, June 16, www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4082dc70-984d-11e0-ae45-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Y5nHnjP4) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)But tensions have risen(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) in AND (%%)// Islamabad? (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)I don’t think so//(% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %).” (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) Saudi Arabia is in favor of transition – perceives the aff as stability (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Knickmeyer 11(%%) (Ellen, Former Washington Post Middle East Bureau Chief and Associated Press Africa Bureau Chief, "Trouble Down South," Foreign Policy, July 5, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/07/05/trouble_down_south?page=full) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)These days, in a further blurring AND (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)bring new elections in Yemen. (% class="tag" %) (% class="tag" %) Plan increases co-operation with Saudi Arabia over yemen (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Boucek 11(%%) (Christopher, "US-Saudi Relations in the Shadow of the Arab Spring," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 21, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)Very rarely do (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)U.S.(%%) officials AND (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) oil market doesn’t get overheated. (% class="tag" %) Internal link is about lack of oil – Cutting off oil through the suez accesses better (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) (% class="cite" %)No US-China conflict in the Middle East (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Luft and Korin 2004(%%) (Gal, executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, and Anne, director of policy and strategic planning at IAGS, “The Sino-Saudi Connection,” Commentary Magazine, (% class="MsoNormal" %) ) (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) Of course, many other factors AND (% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %) dependence on imported oil altogether.(% class="underline" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) No accidents- (% class="tag" %) -PALs, detargeting, etc (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Slocombe 9 (%%)(The Honorable Walter B. Slocombe, Caplin & Drysdale Attorneys and Former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy , “De-Alerting: Diagnoses, Prescriptions, and Side-Effects”, Discussion paper presented at the seminar on “Re-framing De-Alert: Decreasing the Operational Readiness of Nuclear Weapons Systems in the U.S.-Russia Context , East-West Institute, June 2009, ) (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Let’s start with Technical Failure – AND (% class="underline" %) of appropriation or mistaken use (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 16pt; font-family: ~"Arial~",~"sans-serif~";" %)**__ __**(%%)*2AC Politics (% class="tag" %) More evidence it will be a political issue for Obama (% class="card" %) UPI 11-8-11 (Operation Fast and Furious flares again http:~/~/www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/11/08/Operation-Fast-and-Furious-flares-again/UPI-65031320780893/?dailybrief(% style="color: black;" %) ) (% class="card" %) (% class="card" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)H(% class="underline" %)older's explanations, however, (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)aren't(%%) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)likely (%%)AND into the political debate. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) Keystone XL derails Obama (% class="card" %) Fekete 11-11-11 (Journalist. Postmedia News. Keystone — and other irritants — hang over Harper-Obama meet. http:~/~/www.vancouversun.com/business/Keystone+other+irritants+hang+over+Harper+Obama+meet/5697750/story.html) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) (% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)On Keystone(% class="underline" %) XL,(%%) Sands AND th(% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)e president mishandled the file." (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) Obama is spending political capital on the Asia summit (% class="tag" %) Feller 11/11/11 (Ben, Writer for the Associated Press, “Obama: Asian Agenda with Eye on Home”) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (WASHINGTON) — Determined to deepen relations with Asia, President Barack (% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)Obama is pouring nine days(% class="underline" %) of valued time (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)into a diplomatic (%%)AND matter most to the electorate. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) Political capital wrong – doesn’t dictate agenda (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Dickinson 9(%%) (Matthew, professor of political science at Middlebury College, May 26, "Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power, "http:~/~/blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/) (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)What is of more interest AND present Sotomayor as his nominee. (% class="tag" %) (% class="tag" %) Leahy pushes the plan (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Dilanian 10(%%) (Ken, "Yemen hasn't received as much US aid as its neighbors," USA Today, January 5, http:~/~/www.usatoday.com/news/world/2010-01-05-yemen-aid_N.htm) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Sen. Patrick (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Leahy(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %), D-Vt., who (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %)AND effective ways to (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)support them." (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) Leahy is key to the agenda – seniority, committee chairs, active (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Sneyd 7(%%) (Ross, Associated Press, "Sen. Leahy resurgent in new Democratic Congress," Times Argus, June 18, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)U.S. Sen. Patrick (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)Leahy(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) AND (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" %) of it done there."\ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (% class="tag" %) Wins regenerate political capital (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Singer 9(%%) (Jonathan ~-~- senior writer and editor for MyDD. My Direct Democracy, 3-3-09, ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)From the latest NBC News-AND ending the war in Iraq. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (% class="tag" %) Comes from insulated budget – no tradeoffs (% class="tag" %) USSOC Posture Statement 2006. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-family: ~"Arial~",~"sans-serif~"; color: rgb(34, 34, 34);" %)(UDA) process provides rapid AND (% style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)**__ mini- mizing impact on future systems.__** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (% class="tag" %) Its an internal military decision (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Heading3Char" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Wright 11(%%) (Matthew, "Taking Down Al-Qaeda's Network Post 9/11," Countering Al-Qaeda's Ideology: Re-Assessing US Policy Ten Years After 9/11," Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies Task Force Rhttps:~/~/digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/bitstream/handle/1773/16495/Task%20Force%20O%202011.pdf?sequence=1) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)The United States Special Operations Command AND continue to welcome widespread praise. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (% class="tag" %) There is no chance Congress would get a sniff of the plan – the plan is too sensitive to risk leaks (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="StyleStyleBold12pt" style="font-size: 13pt;" %)Salla 4(%%) (Michael. held academic appointments in the School of International Service, American University, Washington DC (1996-2001), and the Department of Political Science, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia (1994-96). Center for Global Peace/School of International Service American University. (% class="card" style="margin-left: 0in;" %) (% class="underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% lime;" %)The ‘black budget’ allows intelligence (% class="underline" %)AND(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) operations and weapons research. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag" %) . No warming – History and scientific study prove. Scientists exaggerate studies to get research grants. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Jaworowski 08(%%) Chairman of Scientific Council of the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Warsaw, Chair of UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation [Prof. Zbigniew “Fear Propaganda” http:~/~/www.ourcivilisation.com/aginatur/cycles/chap3.htm] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="text-decoration: none;" %)__ __ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 4pt;" %)Doomsayers preaching (%%)__the horrors of warming AND __(% class="cite" style="font-size: 4pt;" %) the Atlantic Ocean (Figure 4,) and (%%)__worldwide__. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 16pt; font-family: ~"Arial~",~"sans-serif~";" %)**__ __**(%%)Saudi Cooperation CP (% class="tag" %) Doesn’t solve the aff- CP would be viewed with mistrust- stops credibility (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Clark ‘4 (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)(Pat – editor and partner for the Parr Partnership ~-~- GREEN BUSINESS STRATEGIES ASSISTANCE ~-~- http:~/~/www.sust.org/pdf/housing.pdf) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)__The problem with consultation AND simply switch on and off.__ (% class="tag" %) (% class="tag" %) causes delays – language disputes and layers of intra-nation bureaucracy (% class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 10pt; line-height: 115%;" %) (% class="cite" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;" %)Grieb ‘2(% style="font-size: 9pt; line-height: 115%;" %) (% style="font-size: 7pt; line-height: 115%;" %)(Kenneth J. Grieb is Professor and Coordinator of International Studies at the University of Wisconsin Oshkosh. His is a author of several books dealing with Modern Latin American and United States Diplomatic History ~-~- Encyclopedia of American Foreign Policy – available via: http:~/~/findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_gx5215/is_2002/ai_n19132358.) (% class="MsoNormal" %) __International relations involve negotiations between AND __(% style="font-size: 6pt;" %) in global and regional issues. (% align="left" class="BlockTitle" style="text-align: left;" %) (% style="text-decoration: none;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="card" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="StyleBoldUnderline" style="text-decoration: none;" %)

  
  
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1AC - Texas - Special Forces

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  Text: The United State Special Operations Command should substantially increase its support for democratic governance of the governorates of Yemen.

   

   

  Observation One Inherency

  USAID and the state department have been unable to travel to governorates outside of San’aa because of security restrictions and have been placing responsibility to local contractors

  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)

  473  Beginning no later than 2009, State personnel were

  AND

   Office of Inspector General U.S. Agency for International Development (30 March 2011), 11, 19.

  However, Special Operations have the capacity to implement USAID projects, but the government has chosen contractors instead

  Kotlow 11 (Kazimierz, Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at the Washington Institute, “Countering Extermism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/720-kotlow.pdf)

  The USAID mission in Yemen used the common

   AND

  to help determine effectiveness and guide future stability operations.

   

  Advantage One: AQAP

   

  AQAP is a terrorist threat – negative impact defense is hype

  Gartenstein-Ross 11 (Daveed, Director of the Center for the Study of Terrorist Radicalization at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies "Bin Laden's Legacy: Why We're Still Losing the War on Terror," August 30 Google Books)

  Even before the Arab revolts broke out,

  AND

   and hence for AQAP to grow rather than diminish as a problem.

  United States intelligence of AQAP is weak despite Awlaki’s death – Wayhishi is alive and he’s the important terrorist

  Johnsen 10-10 (Gregory, former Fulbright Fellow in Yemen who works in Near Eastern Studies department at Princeton University, Former Member of the USAID conflict assessment team for Yemen, "Anwar al-Awlaki: A Dissent," bigthink.com/ideas/40600?page=3)

  First, as I argued in my op-ed, Awlaki was a threat and

  AND

  al-Awlaki and his role in AQAP than what we know.

   

  Decapitating the local leadership is key to prevent attacks – Awlaki, Khan and Asiri don’t matter

  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)

  Defensive measures must complement the direct application of force

  AND

  internationalist and sectarian aims would likely lead to the eventual defeat of the group.

   

  Civilian security restrictions prevent face-to-face interactions with Yemenis

  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)

  Though the attacks on tourists and oil

  AND

  rural communities, whose residents had little chance of actually meeting an American.

   

   

  Only the plan allows us to find the leadership

  Koehler-Derrick 10-3 (Gabriel, Associate at the Combating Terrorism Center, and an instructor at the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. "A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen," Combating Terrorism Center, October, www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/CTC_False_Foundation2.pdf)

  A strategy focused on eliminating the group’s core

  AND

  State Department officials to engage with the Yemeni populace. 473

   

   

  Decentralized governance assistance is key to gaining local knowledge to end AQAP

  Green 11 (Daniel, Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute, "The al-Qaeda Crescent in Yemen," The Washington Institute, June 22, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3374)

  Much like AQAP, the U.S. approach must be

  AND

  and providing a strategic foothold in any country.

   

   

  Yemen is the key linchpin of global Al Qaeda– they’re key to funding, recruiting, training, deployment, and are the refuge of last resort

  Scheuer 8 [Michael Scheuer, former CIA intelligence officer, American blogger, historian, foreign policy critic, and political analyst, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Center for Peace and Security Studies, “Yemen’s Role in al-Qaeda’s Strategy”, Jamestown Foundation, Terrorism Focus Volume: 5 Issue: 5, February 7, 2008, http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=4708&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=246&no_cache=1]

  Abundant Manpower But affection is always overruled by the requirements

  AND

  tribesmen here are greatly affected by religious discourse”

  AQAP is gearing up for major attacks in India – they’ll be successful

  Roychowdhury11.(General, Shankar Roychowdhury is a former Chief of Army Staff and a former member of Parliament, “India needs a 360° terror appraisal”, September 6,, Deccan Chronicle, http://www.deccanchronicle.com/editorial/dc-comment/india-needs-360%C2%B0-terror-appraisal-659)

  In this context, Al Qaeda and its emerging connections in Yemen

  AND

  to ensure good governance, India must take due note of other threats as well and exercise the requisite caution.

   

  India will retaliate by invading Pakistan – Abbottabad set a precedent

  Riedel 11 (Bruce, “New Delhi's Abbottabad Mission”, June 22, 2011, National Interest, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/new-delhis-abbottabad-mission-5508)

  President Obama was right and brave to send the SEALs to bring justice

  AND

  terror camp and the next 26/11. And Obama changed the ground rules on May 2, 2011.

   

  This scenario ensures escalation to nuclear war

  Zarate 11 (Juan,  “An alarming South Asia powder keg”, Washington Post, February 18,  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/18/AR2011021805662.html)

  In 1914, a terrorist assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand

  AND

  crises may be the greatest threat we face from terrorism.

  Best new studies prove this would cause extinction

  Starr 11 (Steven, Consequences of a Single Failure of Nuclear Deterrence by Steven Starr February 07, 2011      * Associate member of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation     * Senior Scientist for PSR)

  Only a single failure of nuclear deterrence is required

  AND

  currently operational and deployed U.S. and Russian nuclear forces.

   

   

  Advantage Two: Multilateralism

   

  Yemen will be the model going forward – experts agree

  Baldor 10 (Lolita, Associated Press, “US terror training in Yemen reflects wider program,” Seattle Times, September 8, http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2012835332_apususterrorismtraining.html)

  At stake is the stability of a troubled, poverty-stricken nation struggling to thwart al-Qaida-linked terrorists who are growing stronger and are increasingly targeting the U.S. and other Western interests. "Yemen is the model

  AND

  that does not ebb and flow as terror incidents with a Yemen tie occur.

   

  Balancing military action in Yemen with democracy assistance is key to reorient our war on terror strategies

  Berger 10 (Collin, "America's Land of Opportunity: Supporting Yemen's Fight Against Terrorism," American Foreign Policy, Princeton Student Editorials on Global Politics, December 1, afpprinceton.com/2010/12/america’s-land-of-opportunity-supporting-yemen’s-fight-against-terrorism/)

  Even in its tenth year, the War on Terror still engages the American military

  AND

  can use Yemen as a turning point in the War on Terror.

   

  Yemen’s key- the approach will be the model

  Mitchell 11 (Robert, Degrees from the University of Michigan, Harvard's China Area Program and Columbia, Foreign Service Officer with USAID, "Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency," Small Wars Journal, August 1, smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/yemen-testing-a-new-coordinated-approach-to-preventive-counterinsurgency)

  An American-designed strategy attempts to link

  AND

  be seamlessly linked to those targeting ted or significantly amended.

   

   

  Increasing Civil-Military support elements is key to solidify the whole-of-government approach to our global COIN efforts

  Kotlow 11 (Kazimierz, Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at the Washington Institute, “Countering Extermism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/720-kotlow.pdf)

  Extremism, especially violent extremism, is a clear threat to the national

  AND

   can help make this approach more systemic and less personality dependent.

   

  That is key to restore international counter-terrorism co-operation

  Boyle and Scrnid 9 (Michael and Alex, “A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime,” Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the New Ideas Fund, http://www.newideasfund.org/proposals/NIF_Global%20Compact.pdf)

  One of the greatest challenges currently facing the

  AND

   at the regional and global have so far failed to live up to expectations

  The plan is a decisive break – institutionalizes international co-operation

  Boyle and Scrnid 9 (Michael and Alex, “A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime,” Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the New Ideas Fund, http://www.newideasfund.org/proposals/NIF_Global%20Compact.pdf)

  The Bush approach has been marked by failure of

  AND

  to make the following six elements necessary steps as part of its buy-in for building a global set of regimes for counter-terrorism cooperation. .

  There’s a spillover – militarized counterterrorism policies undermine all efforts at multilateralism

  Boyle and Scrnid 9 (Michael and Alex, “A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime,” Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the New Ideas Fund, http://www.newideasfund.org/proposals/NIF_Global%20Compact.pdf)

  The war on terror has failed to become the dominant frame for American

  AND

  over security matters more difficult than it would have otherwise been.

   

   

  Multilateralism key to preventing extinction

  Dyer, ’04 (Gwynne, military historian and lecturer on international affairs, “The End of War”, Toronto Star, 12/30/2004, http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1230-05.htm, LH)

  War is deeply embedded in our history and our culture,

  AND

  we will have to confront these challenges and solve the problem of war within the context of the existing state system.

  Independently, multilateral terrorism cooperation is key to the nuclear taboo- prevents nuclear war

  Bin 9 (5-22-09 About the Authors  Prof. Li Bin is a leading Chinese expert on arms control and is currently the director of Arms  Control Program at the Institute of International Studies, Tsinghua University.  He received his  Bachelor and Master Degrees in Physics from Peking University before joining China Academy  of Engineering Physics (CAEP) to pursue a doctorate in the technical aspects of arms control. He  served as a part-time assistant on arms control for the Committee of Science, Technology and  Industry for National Defense (COSTIND).Upon graduation Dr. Li entered the Institute of  Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics (IAPCM) as a research fellow and joined the  COSTIND technical group supporting Chinese negotiation team on Comprehensive Test Ban  Treaty (CTBT).  He attended the final round of CTBT negotiations as a technical advisor to the  Chinese negotiating team.      Nie Hongyi is an officer in the People’s Liberation Army with an MA from China’s National  Defense University and a Ph.D. in International Studies from Tsinghua University, which he  completed in 2009 under Prof. Li Bin, "Investigation of China - US Strategic Stability," www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/nwgs/Li-and-Nie-translation-final-5-22-09.pdf)

  The nuclear taboo is a social attitude prohibiting the

  AND

  miscalculation and thereby reduce the danger of a nuclear war.

   

  
  
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