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Advantage One is Credibility: 

Credibility is low now- failure to follow through on the Cairo speech
Esposito 11 Professor of Religion and International Affairs and of Islamic Studies at Georgetown University (John L. Esposito, July 26, 2011, “When Words Fail: Rhetoric vs. Action in American Public Diplomacy”, Middle East Online, http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=47349) 

The Cairo speech was hailed by many as
AND
that is subject to a lot of challenges.” 

Helping Tunisia allows Obama to fulfill the promises made in his Cairo speech
Hamid 11 Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center, April 26, 2011, “The Struggle for Middle East Democracy”, Cairo Review of Global Affairs, http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx) 

A great deal is at stake. America
AND
. Otherwise, their revolutions may still fail. 

Tunisia is the key test case for Obama and the US
Robison 11 teaches Middle East Politics at the University of Vermont (Gordon Robison, January 26, 2011, “Will Obama walk the talk in Tunisia?”, Gulf News, http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/will-obama-walk-the-talk-in-tunisia-1.752012) 

Tunisia now presents Obama with an opportunity to
AND
and America, will do the right thing. 

Now is the key time, we need to reverse the perception of having double standards
Dorsey 11 (James M. Dorsey, May 18, 2011, “Obama effort to recalibrate Mideast policy likely to frustrate reformers and conservatives alike”, Al Arabiya, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/05/18/149581.html) 

US President Barak Obama is likely to find
AND
have accused the US of applying double standards.   

Two impacts to low credibility–

First, Obama’s credibility  presidential consistency is key to reverse the perception of indecisiveness and combat global aggression
Bolton 9 (John R., Senior Fellow – American Enterprise Institute and Former U.S. Ambassador – United Nations, “The Danger of Obama’s Dithering”, Los Angeles Times, 10-18,
http://articles.latimes.com/2009/oct/18/opinion/oe-bolton18)

Weakness in American foreign policy in one region
AND
adversity, engagement simply embodies weakness and indecision.

Obama’s weakness causes global instability – Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and India, Russia, China all lash out
Hanson 9 (Victor Davis, Senior Fellow in Classics and Military History – Hoover Institution, “Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Pajamas Media, 12-7, http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/change-weakness-disaster-obama-answers-from-victor-davis-hanson/)

BC: Are we currently sending a message
AND
quite knows whom it will bite or when.

Iranian prolif escalates to nuclear war
Sokolsky 3 (Henry, Exec Dir – Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, Policy Review, 10-1, Lexis)

If nothing is done to shore up U
AND
would be spring-loaded to go nuclear.

Indo/Pak conflict can quickly erupt - the ensuing nuclear conflict ensures nuclear winter
Robock 10 (Alan, Professor of Climatology – Rutgers University and Associate Director – Center for Environmental Prediction “Local War, Global Suffering,” Scientific American, January, http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockToonSciAmJan2010.pdf)

Abolition: The Only Policy
People have several incorrect impressions about nuclear winter
AND
a nuclear winter, not a nuclear fall.
Another misimpression is that the problem, even
AND
of conflict have the potential to erupt suddenly.

China/India conflict escalates into global great power conflict
Darling 10 (Daniel, International Military Markets Analyst – Forecast International Inc., “Will the Indian Ocean Become the Next Arena of Great Power Conflict?”, The Faster Times, 5-4, http://thefastertimes.com/defensespen ding/2010/03/24/will-the-indian-ocean-become-the-next-arena-of-great-power-conflict/)

As the global balance of power continues to
AND
as good a place to start as any.

Iranian adventurism sparks nuclear war
Ben-Meir 7 (Alon – professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs, Ending iranian defiance, United Press International, 2-6, p. lexis)

That Iran stands today able to challenge or
AND
severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.

Second, US Credibility – loss of credibility permanently crushes overall soft power – only a foreign policy focused on democracy assistance can rebuild support for US soft power
Byron 11 (“Soft Power in the Middle East: Reforming American Foreign Policy,” Press Storm, 3-11, http://www.presstorm.com/2011/03/soft-power-in-the-middle-east-reforming-american-foreign-policy/)

The lack of a consistently supportive stance on
AND
the power of citizen diplomacy and international friendship.

Soft power builds effective coalitions that solves terrorism, disease, environment, and WMD war
Reiss 8 (Mitchell B., Vice Provost of International Affairs – College of William & Mary, “Restoring America's Image: What the Next President Can Do”, Survival, October, 50(5))

But first, there is another question to
AND
or do more to enhance peace and security.

Also, soft power is key to US hegemony
Sen 5 (Sankar, Former Director – Indian National Police Academy, The Statesman, 4-5, Lexis)

Indeed anti-American sentiment is sweeping the
AND
and may gradually affect American pre-eminence.

Collapse of leadership causes global nuclear war
Kagan 11 (Robert, Senior Associate – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “The Price of Power”, The Weekly Standard, 1-24, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533695.html?nopager=1)

Today the international situation is also one of
AND
table and the table will not fall over. 

Advantage Two is Democracy 

Revolutions and transitions to democracy inevitable
Traub 11 contributing editor for the New York Times(James Traub, August 19, 2011, “A Revolution, With Qualifications”, Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/19/a_revolution_with_qualifications?page=0,1) 

The Arab Spring is, in fact,
AND
have every reason to be well-wishers.  

Tunisian elections will fail now
Reuters 9/7 (“Analysis - Confusion reigns ahead of Tunisia vote”, http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE7863DV20110907?sp=true) 

After standing up to beatings, imprisonment and
AND
have not been addressed yet," he said. 

Two possible outcomes: Tunisia will either be a model of democracy or destabilize the rest of the Middle East
Ayadi 11 Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies  (Rym Ayadi, May 26, 2011, “Supporting the challenges of democratic transition in Tunisia”, Centre for European Policy Studies) 

As the lead country in the wave of
AND
to the people’s aspirations for a better future.  

US Democracy assistance will be successful in Tunisia – conditions are right
Vasconcelos, Director of the EU Institute for Security Studies, 11 (Alvaro, "Tunisia: a chance for democracy", http://www.vpi.ba/eng/content/documents/Tunisia_a_chance_for_democracy.pdf)

The illusion that intrinsically fragile economic development can
AND
that the European Union should also be doing.

Now is key
Ottaway 8/10 Senior Associate, Middle East Program- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Marina Ottaway, August 10, 2011, “Transitional Failure in Egypt and Tunisia”, National Interest, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/08/10/transitional-failure-in-egypt-and-tunisia/4ma4) 

Egypt and Tunisia have entered a ….
arbitrary decisions taken by interim governments.

Maintaining the current election timetable is key to Tunisian democracy
Ottaway 11 Senior Associate, Middle East Program- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Marina Ottaway, July 13, 2011, “Tunisia: The Revolution is Over, Can Reform Continue?”, Carnegie Institute for International Peace, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/07/13/tunisia-revolution-is-over-can-reform-continue/3ljo#) 

 Most factors that will affect the outcome
AND
no matter which parties are in the government. 

US involvement is key to solve for Tunisian democracy and spill over
Carpenter 11 J. Scott Carpenter is a Keston family fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (J. Scott Carpenter, February 24, 2011, “Help Tunisia First”, Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/24/help_tunisia_first?page=full) 

If Tunisia doesn't succeed, no other country
AND
its power to help Tunisia along this path. 

Elections and constitutional reform are the most important thing for Tunisian democracy
Paciello 11 researcher at the International Affairs Institute (IAI) and lecturer in economic and political geography of development at the University of Rome “La Sapienza” (Maria Cristina Paciello, May 2011, “Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition, MEDPROC Technical Report No. 3)

Legislative elections are crucial in determining the direction
AND
new political forces to campaign and organise effectively.

Tunisia's conditions mean other countries like Iran model
McManus 11 (Doyle, four-time winner of the National Press Club's Edwin Hood Award for reporting on U.S. foreign policy, member of the Council on Foreign Relations, "Helping the Arabs help themselves; The U.S. must find a way, and funding, to promote democracy.", LA Times, Feb 27, Lexis)

Here's a modest proposal: The administration ….
democracy succeed in Egypt, Yemen and Tunisia. 

Democracy solves Iranian proliferation and support for terrorism
Milani 7 research fellow and codirector of the Iran Democracy Project at the Hoover Institution, Hamid and Christina Moghadam Director of Iranian Studies at Stanford University (Abbas Milani, May 30, 2007, “Prospects for Democracy in Iran”, Iran Democracy Project at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University, http://www.hoover.org/research/projects-and-programs/iran-democracy-project/6145) 

There is a regime that still has the
AND
the despotic regime can bring democracy to Iran. 

Nuclear Iran would cause regional proliferation, and thereby increase the risk of nuclear terrorism, accidental use, and nuclear war.

Rosen 6 (Stephen Peter - Beton Michael Kaneb Professor of National Security and Military Affairs and Director of the John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University,  “After Proliferation”  Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct2006, Vol. 85 Issue 5, p9-14, 6p EBSCO)

Actually, however, a postproliferation future is
AND
Taiwan are plausible candidates for such a nightmare.

Tunisia is a key test case for Middle East democracy
Arieff 11 Analyst in African Affairs (Alexis Arieff, June 27, 2011, “Political Transition in Tunisia”, Congressional Research Service)

Obama Administration officials have emphasized Tunisia’s role as
AND
controlled by Ben Ali and family members.102   

Middle East democracy is key to stability
Diamond, 2005 (Larry – senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, The Middle East: Between Democracy and Stability, Hoover Digest, p. http://www.hoover.org/publications/digest/3001351.html)
A growing number of Arab scholars, journalists
AND
sooner or later unless true reform begins soon.

Nuclear War
Steinbach, March 2003 (John – Center for Research on Globalisation, Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction, A Treat to Peace, p. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=4365)
Meanwhile, the existence of an arsenal of
AND
could trigger a world conflagration." (44)

A successful democratic transition in the Middle East serves as a model for global democracy
Gershman 11 President of the National Endowment for Democracy and member of the Council on Foreign Relations (Carl Gershman, March 1, 2011, “Democracy’s New Moment: A Forward Strategy for Advancing Freedom in the World”, National Endowment for Democracy John B. Hurford Memorial Lecture at New York University, http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/democracy%E2%80%99s-new-moment-a-forward-) 

Suddenly, the world seemed utterly transformed.  
AND
the Muslim Brotherhood, democracy is the solution. 

Global democracy solves extinction
Diamond 95 (Larry, Senior Fellow – Hoover Institution, Promoting Democracy in the 1990s, December, http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/1.htm)

OTHER THREATS This hardly exhausts the lists of
AND
of international security and prosperity can be built. 

VCase

Democratic peace theory checks war

Epstein et al. 07 (Susan Epstein, Nina M. Serafino, and Francis T. Miko, Specialists in Foreign Policy Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division at the Congressional Research Service, “Democracy Promotion: Cornerstone of U.S. Foreign Policy?” http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34296.pdf)

A common rationale offered by proponents of democracy

AND

likely to wage war on one another.”2

Authoritarism is a failed model, particularly true for Tunisia

Jebnoun 11 Visiting Professor of Arab and Middle Eastern Affairs at the University of Montana’s Maureen and Mike Mansfield Center (2008-2010). Former professor at Georgetown’s Center for Contemporary Arab Studies in D.C (2006-2008) (Noureddine Jebnoun, January 26, 2011, “Tunisia’s Glorious Revolution and Its Implications”, Jadaliya, )

The unfolding events in Tunisia have underlined, AND

 and resolved to assert their freedom.

Revolution is coming to Iran now

Reuters 9/7 (“Iran revolution "matter of time" - US defense chief”, )

Revolution in Iran appears to be a matter

AND

going to be true in Iran as well."

Soft Power Impact Add-ons

Disease spread causes extinction

Scotsman 95 (9-11, “The Mega Death”, p. 13, Lexis)

Bullets and bombs may be the weapons of

AND

had the capability to engage in biological warfare.

Eco collapse causes extinction

Jayawardena 9 (Asitha, London South Bank University, “We Are a Threat to All Life on Earth”, Indicator, 7-17, http://www.indicator.org.uk/?p=55)

Sloep and Van Dam-Mieras (1995

AND

…. expecting surprises and adapting to these.’

Extinction

Auslin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)

What do these trends mean in the short

AND

small explosions that coalesce into a big bang.

2AC: T- civil society

Democracy assistance includes civil society, political parties and elections assistance

Mitchell and Phillips 8 (Lincoln A., Arnold A. Saltzman Assistant Professor in the Practice of International

Politics at Columbia University’s School of International and Political Affairs, Chief of Party for the National

Democratic Institute (NDI) in Georgia, and David L., project director of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and a visiting scholar at Columbia University’s Center for the Study of Human Rights. Former senior adviser to the US Department of State and the United Nations Secretariat. “Enhancing Democracy Assistance,” January 2008, The National Committee on American Foreign Policy, The Atlantic Council of the United States, http://acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf)

A toolbox of approaches and methods has come

AND

run local services, building confidence in democratization.

2AC Backlash DA

Elections assistance avoids the link- Tunisians want it so they can trust the results of the election

Masmoudi 11 (Radwan A. Masmoudi, May 3, 2011, “Tunisia Needs International Supervision for the Upcoming July Elections”, Albert Shanker Institute Blog, )

As head of the Tunisian High Council for

AND

diminished by a misplaced emphasis on ‘sovereignty’.

Extremism grows under autocratic rule- demo prom is key to check back radicalism and terrorism.

Carothers, vice president for studies—international politics and governance at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 07 (Thomas, Carnegie Middle East Center, September, “U.S. Democracy Promotion During and After Bush” http://carnegie-mec.org/publications/?fa=19549)

The central idea behind putting democracy promotion at

AND

to be growing not lessening under autocratic rule.

2AC Cap K

Alt doesn’t solve- Capitalism is resilient – it’ll bounce back

Foster 9 (JD, Norman B. Ture Senior Fellow in the Economics of fiscal policy – Heritage Foundation, "Is Capitalism Dead? Maybe," 3-11, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=101694302)

Capitalism is down. It may even be

AND

repeat the cycle again sometime down the road.

Perm solves better – using capitalism to fight itself is more effective

Rothkrug 90 (Paul, Founder – Environmental Rescue Fund, Monthly Review, March, 41(10), p. 38)

No institution is or ever has been a

AND

the margin of success for that very effort.

‘Doing nothing’ sustains capitalism by demobilizing opposition

Taylor 5 (Justin, Oregon-Based Writer, “Zizek Seen Over the Handlebars”, CounterPunch, 2-25, http://joun.leb.net/taylor02262005.html)

Not really. I know Zizek hates self

AND

get their blood pumping, maybe make a friend

Rejection won’t dislodge capitalism – no critical mass exists

Grossberg 92 (Lawrence, Professor of Communication Studies – UNC-Chapel Hill and Chair of the Executive Committee of the University Program in Cultural Studies, We Gotta Get Out of This Place: Popular Conservatism and Postmodern Culture, p. 388-389)

If it is capitalism that is at stake

AND

, and too vague to provide any direction.

Alternatives to capitalism will inevitably collapse

Taylor 94 (Jerry, Director of Natural Resource Studies – Cato Institute, “The Challenge of Sustainable Development”, Regulation, http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/reg17n1-taylor.html)

The free, competitive marketplace creates not only

AND

collapse feared by the proponents of sustainable development.

-- Evaluate consequences – allowing violence for the sake of moral purity is evil

Isaac 2 (Jeffrey C., Professor of Political Science – Indiana-Bloomington, Director – Center for the Study of Democracy and Public Life, Ph.D. – Yale, Dissent Magazine, 49(2), “Ends, Means, and Politics”, Spring, Proquest)

As writers such as Niccolo Machiavelli, Max

AND

promotes arrogance. And it undermines political effectiveness.

Other countries will act capitalist and resource wars/no value to life is inevitable. The economic crisis means capitalist super powers will be stronger
 Mead 2/4 - Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations  (Walter Russell, The New Republic, “Only Makes You Stronger”, 2/4)

But, in many other countries AND

almost as long as the list of financial crises.

Turn:

A. Transition causes war

Harris 3 (Lee, Analyst – Hoover Institution and Author of The Suicide of Reason, “The Intellectual Origins of America-Bashing”, Policy Review, January, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/3458371.html)

This is the immiserization thesis of Marx.

AND

socialist schemes would be reduced to pipe dreams.

B. Extinction

Kothari 82 (Rajni, Professor of Political Science – University of Delhi, Toward a Just Social Order, p. 571)

Attempts at global economic reform could also lead

AND

and setting the stage for eventual global holocaust.

2AC SKFTA- GSU

Bottom of docket

Pottorff 9-14 (Rich, Chief Economist and Analyst, “D.C. Watch: Congress running late,” Dairy Herd, http://www.dairyherd.com/dairy-news/DC-Watch-Congress-running-late-129757623.html?ref=623)

Congress returned to Washington last week with a

AND

the free trade agreements until later this year.

Won’t pass – vote count

Hooper 9-10 (Molly K., “Obama-backed trade pacts could be heavy lift for House GOP,” The Hill, http://thehill.com/homenews/house/180751-obama-backed-trade-pacts-could-be-heavy-lift-for-house-gop)

House Republican leaders face a tough task of

AND

some are senior members,” the source said.

Obama has no political capital

Wehner 9-14 (Peter, Senior Fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, “Has Obama Learned Anything?” Commentary Magazine, http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/09/14/obama-presidency/)

Imagine you’re in the Obama White House,

AND

— learned much of anything from all this?

Disaster relief top of the docket

Chaddock 9-16-11 (Gail Russell, “House battle looms over disaster relief. When did that become partisan?,” http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2011/0916/House-battle-looms-over-disaster-relief.-When-did-that-become-partisan)

Moreover, GOP governors hard-hit by

AND

Senate expect to leave town for a break.

Aid to Tunisia has bipartisan support

Politico 11 (March 10, 2011 “Kerry, McCain, Lieberman push funds for Egypt, Tunisia”, )

Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass

AND

for us to help them restore their economy.”

Key to Obama’s agenda

Huntley, Steve. June 26, 2009. (“Dems' packed agenda crowds out other views” )

Congress, driven by President Obama's ambitious political

AND

push for quick action crowd out competing views. 

Tunisia debates avoid the link – past proves

Arieff, Analyst in African Affairs, 11 (Alexis, June 27, "Political Transition in Tunisia", Congressional Research Service, )

Congress authorizes, appropriates, and oversees foreign

AND

federal budget debates and disagreements over funding priorities.

-- Turn – winners win

Singer 9 (Jonathan, Editor – MyDD and JD – University of California, Berkeley, “By Expending Capital, Obama Grows His Capital”, MyDD, 3-3, http://www.mydd.com/story/2009/3/3/191825/0428)

Peter Hart gets at a key point.

AND

energy reform to ending the war in Iraq.

-- Political capital isn’t key – voting is ideological

Dickinson 9 (Matthew, Professor of Political Science – Middlebury College and Former Professor – Harvard University, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,” Presidential Power, 5-26, http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/)

As for Sotomayor, from here the path

AND

power that cannot be measured through legislative boxscores.

The alliance is strong

Garamone 10 (Jim, Staff Writer, “U.S.-South Korea Alliance Remains Strong, Leaders Say,” American Forces Press, 10-8, http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=61207)

The United States and South Korea are ready

AND

its provocation and aggression will not be tolerated.”

No risk of Korean war

Edwards 10 (Michael, Reporter – ABC News, “Full-scale War on Korean Peninsula 'Unlikely'”, ABC News, 11-25, http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/11/24/3075727.htm)

Experts say full-scale war on AND

 North Korea's main ally China to intervene.

2AC USAID Tradeoff

Tunisian democracy assistance would be drawn from the ESF

Armbruster, 11 (Ben, “AP Claims That Those ‘Insistent On Cutting Military Spending’ Will Find ‘Plenty To Like’ In Budget Deal”, April 13, http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/04/13/176561/ap-military-spending-budget/)

The AP also ignores the lopsided nature of

AND

as elsewhere, are to upheaval and violence.

2AC EU CP

EU and the US can work together

EU Business 11 (January 26, 2011, “US, EU offer Tunisia help to organize elections”, )

The European Union and the United States on

AND

Brennan told reporters during a visit to Algeria.

Can’t solve democracy- Tunisians look to the US electoral model

NDI 9 (National Democratic Institute, “Tunisia”,  )

During the 2008 U.S. elections

AND

of limited political space in their home countries.

French involvement in Tunisia hurts the Tunisia economy- undermines the transition

POMED 11 (January 31, 2011, “The Breakdown of Autocracy in Tunisia”, )

King also states that AND

 on the side of the opposition.

European economic weakness results in Arab Spring failure

Stiglitz, 11 (Joseph, Nobel laureate in economics and a professor at Columbia University, “Europe's Travails and Our Collective Fate”, New York Times, July 19, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/20/opinion/20iht-edstiglitz20.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=globaleua212)

But if Europe cannot show sufficient solidarity in

AND

will in turn put more pressure on Europe.

Disunity prevents solvency and EU soft power

Scimia, 11 (Emanuele, journalist and geopolitical analyst based in Rome, “The Arab Spring and the EU”, The Jerusalem Post, May 2, http://www.jpost.com/Magazine/Features/Article.aspx?id=216561)

But disagreements are emerging from within as well

AND

is unable to manage an effective foreign policy. 

2AC EU NED CP

Funding is key to send the signal

McInerney, April 2010 (Stephen - director of advocacy for the Project on Middle East Democracy, The Federal Budget and Appropriation for Fiscal Year 2011 - Democracy, Governance, and Human Rights in the Middle East, p. 5)

Certainly, budget numbers and funding levels alone

AND

demonstration of the administration’s commitment to declared priorities.

Conflict inevitable- Russian geography

Stratfor 8 (“The Russian Resurgence and the New-Old Front”, 9-15,

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20080915_russian_resurgence_and_new_old_front)

Russia is attempting to reforge its Cold War

AND

to choose a more activist set of policies.

Advantage One is Democracy

Revolutions and transitions to democracy inevitable

Traub 11 contributing editor for the New York Times(James Traub, August 19, 2011, “A Revolution, With Qualifications”, Foreign Policy, )

The Arab Spring is, in fact,

AND

have every reason to be well-wishers.  

Tunisian elections will fail now

Reuters 11 (9/7, “Analysis - Confusion reigns ahead of Tunisia vote”, )

After standing up to beatings, imprisonment and

AND

have not been addressed yet," he said.

Two possible outcomes: Tunisia will either be a model of democracy or destabilize the rest of the Middle East

Ayadi 11 Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies  (Rym Ayadi, May 26, 2011, “Supporting the challenges of democratic transition in Tunisia”, Centre for European Policy Studies)

As the lead country in the wave of

AND

to the people’s aspirations for a better future.  

US Democracy assistance will be successful in Tunisia – conditions are right

Vasconcelos, Director of the EU Institute for Security Studies, 11 (Alvaro, "Tunisia: a chance for democracy", )

The illusion that intrinsically fragile economic development can

AND

that the European Union should also be doing.

Now is key

Ottaway 8/10 Senior Associate, Middle East Program- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Marina Ottaway, August 10, 2011, “Transitional Failure in Egypt and Tunisia”, National Interest, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, )

Egypt and Tunisia have entered

AND

y arbitrary decisions taken by interim governments.

Ensuring international legitimacy  is key to Tunisian democracy

Ottaway 11 Senior Associate, Middle East Program- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Marina Ottaway, July 13, 2011, “Tunisia: The Revolution is Over, Can Reform Continue?”, Carnegie Institute for International Peace, )

 Most factors that will affect the outcome

AND

no matter which parties are in the government.

US involvement is key to solve for Tunisian democracy and spill over

Carpenter 11 J. Scott Carpenter is a Keston family fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (J. Scott Carpenter, February 24, 2011, “Help Tunisia First”, Foreign Policy, )

If Tunisia doesn't succeed, no other country

AND

its power to help Tunisia along this path.

Tunisia is a key test case for Middle East democracy

Arieff 11 Analyst in African Affairs (Alexis Arieff, June 27, 2011, “Political Transition in Tunisia”, Congressional Research Service)

Obama Administration officials have emphasized Tunisia’s role as

AND

controlled by Ben Ali and family members.102   

Lack of an Arab model for democracy spells doom for other Middle East transitions
 Diamond 10 [Larry, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University and director of Stanford's Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, “Why Are There No Arab Democracies?,” Journal of Democracy, Volume 21, Number 1, January]

The second external factor is the other …. clearly to liberal-democratic norms.

The second external factor is the other Arab

AND

commit more clearly to liberal-democratic norms.

Middle East democracy is key to stability

Diamond, 2005 (Larry – senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, The Middle East: Between Democracy and Stability, Hoover Digest, p. http://www.hoover.org/publications/digest/3001351.html)

A growing number of Arab scholars, journalists

AND

sooner or later unless true reform begins soon.

Nuclear War

Steinbach, March 2003 (John – Center for Research on Globalisation, Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction, A Treat to Peace, p. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=4365)

Meanwhile, the existence of an arsenal of

AND

could trigger a world conflagration." (44)

Terrorism causes global nuclear war

Speice, 6 (Patrick, JD, William & Mary Law Review, February, p. 1437-8)

The potential consequences of the unchecked spread of

AND

and escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.

A successful democratic transition in the Middle East serves as a model for global democracy

Gershman 11 President of the National Endowment for Democracy and member of the Council on Foreign Relations (Carl Gershman, March 1, 2011, “Democracy’s New Moment: A Forward Strategy for Advancing Freedom in the World”, National Endowment for Democracy John B. Hurford Memorial Lecture at New York University, )

Suddenly, the world seemed utterly transformed. 

AND

the Muslim Brotherhood, democracy is the solution.

Global democracy solves extinction

Diamond 95 (Larry, Senior Fellow – Hoover Institution, Promoting Democracy in the 1990s, December, http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/1.htm)

OTHER THREATS This hardly exhausts the lists of

AND

of international security and prosperity can be built.

Democracy aid works – creates agent empowerment & anticipated reactions – theory & studies prove – works better than other forms of aid
 SCOTT & STEELE  11  1. Professor & Dept Chair in Political Science Oklahoma State 2.  PhD student in political science at the University of Illinois
 [James M. Scott & Carie A. Steele, Sponsoring Democracy: The United States and Democracy Aid to the Developing World, 1988–2001, International Studies Quarterly, Volume 55, Issue 1, pages 47–69, March 2011 ]

Can democratic sponsor states such as the United

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democracy would do well to structure assistance accordingly.

The United States Federal Government should provide election and good governance assistance for Tunisia.

Advantage Two is Stability

FDI funds to Tunisia are falling now

AFP 11 (October 5, 2011, “Arab Spring sparks sharp fall in foreign investment”, )

The flow of foreign direct

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21 percent in FDI inflows, the report said.

Revolution caused huge Tunisian budget deficits

Bloomberg 11 (September 23, 2011, “Tunisia Says May Need About 2 Billion in Budget Support in 2012”

Tunisian debt sell off advantage- sells off US/Euro Bonds

Tunisia, the North African country whose

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decision but we leave that option open.”

Tunisia’s economy is on a rapid decline; this empowers Islamist fundamentalist groups in the country

Weitzman 11 (Bruce Maddy-Weitzman is the Marcia Israel Senior Research Fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University.  Summer 2011 “Tunisia's Morning After” Middle East Quarterly Vol. 18, Issue 3)

Two additional factors that will most certainly be

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4 billion were required in loans for 2011.

Fundamentalist Islamists are rallying for full implementation of Islamic law in Tunisia, going against Tunisian ideals

Beardsley, 11 ( Eleanor, Radio Journalist & Paris Correspondent - NRP, “Tunisia Seen as Laboratory for Arab Democracy” National Public Radio, http://www.npr.org/2011/05/09/136137821/after-uprisings-tunisia-a-laboratory-for-democracy)

At a town hall meeting in a middle

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true to a Tunisian ear," Khelifa says.

Radical Islamist control of Tunisia will spark a domino effect of Islamist radicals taking control of the entire region

Tsonev, 11 (Kiryak, Arabian Scholar & ex-Diplomat, “In Tunisia They Want Democracy, In Egypt – Bread” Europost, http://www.europost.bg/article?id=946, 2/05)

January saw the start of a series of

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different colour but of the same type.

Regional instability from Arab Spring revolutions will give rise to radical Islamist takeover and this directly threatens Israel

Ottolenghi, 11 (Emanuele, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “Analysis: Much to fear, much to hope with Arab Spring”, The Jewish Chronicle Online, http://www.thejc.com/news/world-news/53920/analysis-much-fear-much-hope-arab-spring, 09-1)

The Arab Spring represents an unprecedented crisis

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Israel is concerned, 'change for the worse'.

That independently implicates and threatens US-Israeli relations.

Byman ’11 (Daniel, Prof. in Security Studies @ Georgetown, Research Director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy @ Brookings, “Israel’s Pessimistic View of the Arab Spring”, Washington Quarterly, Summer, Volume 34, Issue 3, accessed online p. http://www.twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Byman.pdf)

These apocalyptic predictions and Israel’s doom-and

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regional transformation is peaceful and that democratization succeeds.

Breakdown of US-Israeli relations collapses US hegemony and causes rebalancing

Wikistrat, 11 (Wikistrat is a global network of subject matter experts that uses a patented crowdsourcing methodology to provide insights that are unavailable anywhere else, “Terra Incognita – Arab Spring Forcing US to Choose Between Longtime Allies” http://www.wikistrat.com/geopolitical-analysis/terra-incognita-arab-spring-forcing-us-to-choose-between-longtime-allies/, 05-26)

US policy in the Middle East has long

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of Beijing’s readiness to pay its own way.

Collapse of leadership causes global nuclear war

Kagan 11 (Robert, Senior Associate – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “The Price of Power”, The Weekly Standard, 1-24, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533695.html?nopager=1)

Today the international situation is also one of

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table and the table will not fall over. 

Democracy is a prerequisite for any stable economic development

Stiglitz 11 Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University (Joseph E. Stiglitz, February 4, 2011, “Liberty, Equality, Prosperity”,   )

Tunisia's democratic revolution has set off a cascade

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in Tunisia, and now across the region.

US support is key to FDI

National Lawyers Guild 11 (June 2011, “Promises and Challenges: The Tunisian Revolution of 2010-2011”)

Unlike many of the former political prisoners and

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Arab world and the West as well." 36

Tunisia debates avoid the link – past proves
Arieff, Analyst in African Affairs, 11
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)

Congress authorizes, appropriates, and oversees foreign
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larger federal budget debates and disagreements over funding priorities
Winners win
Halloran 10 (Liz, Reporter – NPR
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/story.php?storyId=125594396)
Amazing what a win in a major legislative
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now suggest is a losing issue for them. 

Plan popular
POMED 11 (September 23, 2011,
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) 

David Dreier (R-CA) led
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of strict Islamic values in the new constitution.

Rationality is key to problem solving. Their interpretation undermines the best policy option.
Smith, et al, 2009, Kevin
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, - Political Science - 280 pages, p185
Put simply, policymakers tend to make “
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of the argumentative nature of public policy analysis. 

Aid to Tunisia has bipartisan support
Politico 11 (March 10, 2011 “
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) 

Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass
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for us to help them restore their economy.” 

US support is key to FDI
National Lawyers Guild 11 (June 2011,
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The Tunisian Revolution of 2010-2011”) 

Unlike many of the former political prisoners and
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Arab world and the West as well." 36 

Can’t solve democracy- Tunisians look to the US electoral model
NDI 9 (National Democratic Institute, “
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) 

During the 2008 U.S. elections
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of limited political space in their home countries.

French involvement in Tunisia hurts the Tunisia economy- undermines the transition
POMED 11 (January 31, 2011,
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) 

King also states that while efforts towards democracy
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Islamist slogan was raised in the whole protest.
Robert Prince began his discussion over the role
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took off in the 1990s, Tunisia stagnated.
When looking at the role of the U
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they did not realize how frustrated citizens were.
The U.S. and France have
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not intervene on the side of the opposition.

Tunisia says no
Wagner and Campbell 11 Managing Director of Country
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) 

As Tunisia prepares for democratic elections, foremost
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question the sanctity of existing European trade deals.

European economic weakness results in Arab Spring failure
Stiglitz, 11 (Joseph, Nobel laureate
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&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=globaleua212)

But if Europe cannot show sufficient solidarity in
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will in turn put more pressure on Europe.

Disunity prevents solvency and EU soft power
Scimia, 11 (Emanuele, journalist and
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/Article.aspx?id=216561)

But disagreements are emerging from within as well
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is unable to manage an effective foreign policy.  

CP drains political capital.
AFP 11 (May 7, 2011,
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) 

The EU must offer more trade incentives to
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point has clearly failed," the report said.
Political infighting undermines market confidence in the Euro bailout.
Evans, 9/28/2011 (
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/news/world-europe-15091883)
All the arithmetic indicates that Chancellor Angela Merkel
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they will support the expansion of the fund.
But, if the majority is untidy,
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of the euro has an end in sight.
Collapse of market confidence collapses the economy.
Padmanabhan, 9/26/2011 (
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-the-brink-I.html)
Over the weekend, euro zone countries continued
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likely to plunge the world into a recession.

Tunisia is the key test case for Obama’s consistency in the Middle East
Robison 11 teaches Middle East Politics at the
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) 

Tunisia now presents Obama with an opportunity to
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and America, will do the right thing. 

Presidential consistency is key to reverse the perception of indecisiveness and combat global aggression
Bolton 9 (John R., Senior Fellow
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”, Los Angeles Times, 10-18, 

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)

Weakness in American foreign policy in one region
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adversity, engagement simply embodies weakness and indecision.

Obama’s weakness causes global instability – Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and India, Russia, China all lash out
Hanson 9 (Victor Davis, Senior Fellow
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-from-victor-davis-hanson/)

BC: Are we currently sending a message
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quite knows whom it will bite or when.

Alt fails
Chandler 10 (David, Professor of International
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/Millennium%20Liberal%20Peace.pdf)

It would seem that at the core of
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of a critical alternative embedded in these approaches.

Democracy is not a product imposed on countries – it’s a tool to reveal public preferences and challenge authoritarian violence
Fukuyama and McFaul 7 (Francis, Professor
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, 31(1), 23-45)

Yet, democracy promotion does not imply the
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ultimately  required for good governance and economic growth. 

The alternative over-respects sovereignty – causes violence
Fukuyama and McFaul 7 (Francis, Professor
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, 31(1), 23-45)

International relations realists argue that world order depends
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- and nonstate actors  in the international system.

Democracy is moral – demand is high, autocracies cause genocide
Fukuyama and McFaul 7 (Francis, Professor
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, 31(1), 23-45)

Apart from serving U.S. strategic
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not be defended on moral or ethical grounds.

US democracy promotion doesn’t take a one-size fits all approach- it adapts to the society
Glen 11 (Patrick J., Adjunct Professor
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%20foreign%20promotion%20law%22)

This invidious argument proposes that democracy, and
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is not capable or willing  to embrace democracy.

Plan doesn’t link- elections are happening now in Tunisia and democracy has already been demanded- its only a question of whether or not the elections are successful

The plan is soft intervention – their impact assumes forcible intervention
Cooper and Legler 6 (Andrew F.,
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Without Intervention?, p.1-23)

A second axis traces the mode of intervention
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political game on a country-specific basis.

We would latch on to heg – triggers their impacts
Snyder 07 Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Relations at Columbia University
[Jack “FREE HAND ABROAD, DIVIDE
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.henryfarrell.net/unipolarity.pdf)]
Plausible as these arguments may be, the
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about whether or how ideology will express itself. 

Discourse doesn’t shape reality
Tuathail 96 Department of Geography at Virginia Polytechnic
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, 15(6-7), 664 )
While theoretical debates at academic conferences are important
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to the patterned mess that is human history. 

Alt can’t solve policy making - refusal to engage in traditional politics is an abdication of social responsibility that makes social crises inevitable resulting in extinction
Boggs, 1997 (Carl, National University
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)

The decline of the public sphere in late
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, collective interests that had vanished from civil society

Security doesn’t cause war – it allows for emancipation that creates surival
Ken Booth, visiting researcher - US Naval
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Security Studies and World Politics, p. 22

The best starting point for conceptualizing security lies
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human species can reinvent itselfbeyond the merely biological.

Turn: the alt causes the security sector to be dominated by the most conservative policymakers.
Olav. F. Knudsen, Prof @
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Studies: Desecuritizing  Securitization,” p. 366]
A final danger in focusing on the state
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unheeded by any but the most uncritical minds. 

Representations don’t influence reality
Kocher 00 (Robert L., Author of
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/lfetimes/reality_sanity1.htm)

While it is not possible to establish many
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they profess what they pretend to believe in.

Critique of American identity and democracy fails—we should re-narrate American security concerns towards inclusion of other countries
Vibeke Schou PEDERSEN Copenhagen ‘3 “In
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17 (2) p. 30-32

This forces us in turn, to consider
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it is ours to with as we please.

We have the best epistemology – critical academia is always wrong and gets shut out by policy elites
Kramer 1 (Dr. Martin, Editor
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.org/pubPDFs/IvoryTowers.pdf)

Only now have hesitant voices been raised from
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, and what might be done about it.
[Continues]
While the professors “faked it,” the
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turned out, were not so easily appeased.

Western understandings of the Middle East are accurate – their evidence suffers from selection bias
Teitelbaum and Litvak 6 (Joshua, Senior
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/issue1/Teitelbaum_Litvak.pdf)

The critics did not deny that Western culture
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rich and multi-faceted over the years. 

Realism is true and inevitable – a shift away collapses into chaos.

Mearsheimer 2001 [professor of political science at
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of Great Power Politics, pg. 361]

The optimists' claim that security competition and war
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the major states in each region at peace.

We should focus debate on well-evidenced claims produced by experts.  Translated specialized knowledge into policy revelance is the only way to avoid policy based just on posturing and prejudice.  

Michael NICHOLSON IR @ Sussex ‘2K “
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of International Studies 26 p. 186-187

There has, moreover, to be some
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a requirement. Someone has to do it.
From this we can see there is nothing
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these ideas without some specialist language and techniques.
This implies a particular view of International Relations
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in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office just as w

Doesn’t send the international signal of commitment to Tunisia- Funding key
McInerney, April 2010 (Stephen - director
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in the Middle East, p. 5)

Certainly, budget numbers and funding levels alone
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demonstration of the administration’s commitment to declared priorities.

NED is independent from US policy – USAID is key
Fukuyama and McFaul 7 (Francis, Professor
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, 31(1), 23-45)

For most of U.S. history
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,  already blurred, became even more ambiguous.

The EU will collapse – Greece will start the domino effect.
Defence Professionals News, 9/22/
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/details/28104/?SID=50824a11d84c46b49aa469947308327b)
Could the EU collapse? Unthinkable! Impossible
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reach France, the EU will certainly collapse.
Collapse of the Eurozone destroys the EU- guts solvency of the counterplan and of the net benefit
Lilico, 9/14/2011 (
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-collapse-of-the-eu/)
Many statements from senior eurozone policymakers treat the
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modern experience or comprehension in a Western democracy.

CP drains political capital.
AFP 11 (May 7, 2011,
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) 

The EU must offer more trade incentives to
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point has clearly failed," the report said.
Political infighting undermines market confidence in the Euro bailout.
Evans, 9/28/2011 (
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/news/world-europe-15091883)
All the arithmetic indicates that Chancellor Angela Merkel
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they will support the expansion of the fund.
But, if the majority is untidy,
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of the euro has an end in sight.
Collapse of market confidence collapses the economy.
Padmanabhan, 9/26/2011 (
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-the-brink-I.html)
Over the weekend, euro zone countries continued
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likely to plunge the world into a recession.

Obama giving aid for Tunisia now- means the disad is not unique
Las Vegas Sun, 10-13-
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/13/us-obama-tunisia/)

President Barack Obama pledged U.S.
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country would be replicated elsewhere in the region.
No spillover to Black Sea cooperation.
Pantev, 10/12/2011 (
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-1e9c-be1e-2c24-a6a8c7060233)
All these things give an indication of the
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and upheaval of the Arab Spring and beyond.