Neg v. Baylor FK

• Tournament: GSU | Round: 1 | Opponent: Sample Team | Judge: Dwon Chung
  
  

• <p>Use this second box for WYSIWYG editing, or pasting straight from Word.</p><p>Click the Pencil to the right to edit entries.</p><p>Click the Red X to delete this sample entry.</p>

  
  

• FTA CP

  FTA CP – Politics 2NC

  Aid causes backlash – FTA doesn’t – comparative ev
  Sharp 11 (Jeremy M., Middle East Policy Analyst – Congressional Research Service, “Egypt in Transition,” Congressional Research Service, 6-17, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33003.pdf)

  Although the Egyptian government has expressed … of the private sector in Egypt and Tunisia).5 

   

  FTA CP – Solves – Econ

  FTA jump-starts Egyptian growth
  Kleckner 11 (Dean, chair – Truth about Trade and Technology, “Time to Trade with Egypt,” 2-24, http://www.truthabouttrade.org/news/editorials/kleckner-speaks-out/17462-time-to-trade-with-egypt)

  “We would like very much to have a free-trade … a free-trade agreement is right now. 

  Causes private sector development
  Washington Post 11 (“Egypt can still lead the Arab world to democracy,” 7-20, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/egypt-can-still-lead-the-arab-world-to-democracy/2011/07/19/gIQA7sZbQI_story.html)

  All this, of course, does not mean … the rest of the Arab world toward freedom.
   

  A2: Perm

  Their justifications fuse democracy into the area of security  opens a window for militarist response
  Wilkins 10 (Karin – Prof. at University of Austin – Texas, Associate Director at Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Ph.D. – Univ. of Pennsylvania, “Considering “Traditional Society” in the Middle East: Learning Lerner All Over Again”, 2010, Journal of Middle East Media, http://www2.gsu.edu/~wwwaus/LernerWilkins.pdf)

  Not all of USAID work fits squarely into the early Lernerian … NOT giving over hearts and minds may well lie in the losing of bodies. 

   Including their liberal option wards off critique
  Burke 7 (Anthony, Senior Lecturer – School of Politics and Professor of International Relations – University of New South Wales, Beyond Security, Ethics and Violence, p. 3-4)

  These frameworks are interrogated at the level … and ethical possibility that systematically wards off critique.

  Security K

   

  Link – Impact Claims – Hegemony

  Pursuit of hegemony is a fantasy of control that relies upon construction of threatening Otherness - this prompts resistance and create a permanent state of conflict
  Chernus 6 (Ira, Professor of Religious Studies and Co-director of the Peace and Conflict Studies Program – University of Colorado-Boulder, Monsters to Destroy: The Neoconservative War on Terror and Sin, p. 53-54)

  The end of the cold war spawned a tempting …more likely it is to believe and enact the neocon story. 

  Culminates in planetary annihilation
  Dallymayr 4 (Fred, Professor of Philosophy and Political Science – University of Notre Dame, “The Underside of Modernity: Adorno, Heidegger, and Dussel”, Constellations, 11(1))

  What Dussel here calls asymmetry is otherwise …you could press a button and annihilate the earth.26

  Link Impact Claims  Hegemony (Kagan)

  Kagan is the worst example - his scholarship distorts policy and security assessment
  Dalby 6 (Simon, Professor of Geography – Carleton, Hegemony or Empire?, Ed. Grondin & Philippe, p. 40-41)

  There is a rich irony in the warning in … conflict and militarized understandings of security.23
   

  Framework – 2NC

  Representations must come first – pure policy analysis causes serial policy failure by ignoring underlying assumptions
  Bilgin 4 (Pinar - assistant prof, IR, Bilkent U. PhD, IR, U Wales, Is the 'Orientalist' past the Future of Middle East Studies?, Third World Quarterly, Vol. 25, No. 2, 423-433, JSTOR)

  To go back to Little's argument about American Orientalism, …and challenging common sense. This is what Said sought to do in his lifetime.52

   

  Alternative – 2NC

  We don’t need one – rejecting security solves the impact to the K
  Neocleous 8 (Mark, Professor of the Critique of Political Economy – Brunel University, Critique of Security, p. 185-186)

  The only way out of such a dilemma, to … us to be brave enough to return the gift."' 

  Critical intellectualism creates change – answers all of their “alt fails” args
  Jones 99 (Richard Wyn, Professor of International Relations – Aberystwyth University, Security, Strategy, and Critical Theory, p. 155-163)

  The central political task of the …should act as both an inspiration and a challenge to critical security studies.

  
  
  

GSU Neg Disclosure

• Tournament: GSU | Round: All Rounds | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• 
  

  
  

• Topicality

  DA is unconditional

  A. Interpretation – 

  Democracy Assistance is assistance conditioned on democratic reforms
  Collier 94 (Ellen C., Specialist in U.S. Foreign Policy Foreign Affairs and National Defense Division, “Democracy Building: The Foreign Policy Budget Request, Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, 4-12-94, http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAA490.pdf)  

  Another issue is which countries … out of, such as Zaire, this was a major reason.' 7 

  B. Violation - The plan provides unconditional assistance to _. 

  C. Standards 

  1.  Topic Education – Affirmative’s can sidestep discussing democracy entirely if they are allowed to provide unconditional assistance without linking it to reforms, destroying topic specific education. 

  2. Core Neg Ground – Unconditional affirmatives sidestep core negative strategies, such as internal political disads, NGO tradeoff arguments, alternative condition counterplans, and critiques of international negotiating. 

  D. Voting Issue – Topicality is a voting issue to preserve competitive equity, the foundation of debate; plus its a rule at the NDT and so should be enforced throughout the year. 

  Egypt FTA CP

  1NC

  The United States Federal Government should offer the Arab Republic of Egypt a bilateral free trade agreement.  We’ll clarify.

  Competes and avoids net benefits – doesn’t increase democracy assistance

  Solves – FTA jump-starts Egyptian growth and democracy
  Schenker 11 (David, director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Egypt and the Arab fall,” LA Times, 6-1, http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-schenker-egypt-20110601,0,7650558.story?track=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+latimes%2Fnews%2Fopinion+%28Los+Angeles+Times+-+Opinion%29)

  Today in Egypt, there is an environment …Egypt is too big — and too important — to fail. 

  Sends a strong signal of US commitment to democracy and increases FDI
  Dunne 11 (Michelle, Director of the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, “Egypt’s Democratic Transition:  Five Important Myths About the Economy and International Assistance,” 7-21, http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/403/Egypts_Democratic_Transition_ENG.PDF)

  "Far-reaching reforms that stimulate private sector growth and spread economic opportunity will lie at the center of "
  AND
  "investments in the trade and transport infrastructure. "

  2NC

  Enables self-organization and disperses power
  Ahmed 11 (Samia, and Michelle Astengo, Alexandra Blum, Annie Durkin, Scott Glenn, David Lambert, Reemah Medina, Kailyn Nicholson, Grace Oh, Denis Rajić, Anna Schaffer, Nathaniel Thomas, Rostislav Voloshin Mohamud Warsame, Daryl Whitley, “The Future of U.S. Democracy Promotion: Strategies for a Sustainable Fourth Wave of Democratization”, 3/10, Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies, https://digital.lib.washington.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/1773/16487/Task%20Force%20C%202011%20Web.pdf?sequence=1)

  VII. Democracy through Development
  "Community development arises as a possible solution to the problems that characterize more top-down, donor-"
  AND
  "and interests in the political system, laying down the  foundation for more democratic governance.  "

  Empirically proven – Eastern Europe
  De Kerros 11 (Tatjana, independent research analyst and consultant, “The Politics of ‘Aid for Trade’: The US, Egypt and Enterprise Funds,” The Entrepreneurialist, 3-16, http://theentrepreneurialist.net/2011/03/16/the-politics-of-aid-for-trade-the-us-egypt-and-enterprise-funds/)

  "The privatization and creation of market economies in post-communist Europe can be regarded as one of the "
  AND
  "Egyptian financial institutions. "

  Even if they win a solvency deficit – democracy assistance fails and is comparatively worse
  McDonald 7 (Patrick J., assistant professor in the Department of Government at the University
  of Texas at Austin, “Revitalizing Grand Strategy: America’s Untapped Market Power”, The Washington Quarterly • 30:3 pp. 21–35, http://www.twq.com/07summer/docs/07summer_mcdonald.pdf)

  "This strategy of using economic ties to cultivate local political support compares favorably to the existing policy of "
  AND
  "abroad."

  Empirically proven in Egypt
  Peters 11 (Anne Mariel, assistant professor in the department of government at Wesleyan University, “Why Obama shouldn't increase democracy aid to Egypt,” Foreign Policy, 2-14, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/why_obama_shouldn_t_increase_democracy_aid_to_egypt)

  "The new Obama administration then terminated USAID's direct-grants program  though MEPI and the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor (DRL) "
  AND
  "and 2) project-specific impacts, such as percentage of U.S.-assisted courts with better case management. "

  US aid causes backlash
  Cook 11 (Steven A., Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, The U.S.-Egyptian Breakup, Foreign Affairs, 2-2, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67347/steven-a-cook/the-us-egyptian-breakup)

  "An aggressive American effort in Egypt also risks alienating leaders who would otherwise be willing to work with "
  AND
  "conditions  is likely to embitter all parties involved."

  NGOs won’t accept aid – politically tainted
  Cook 11 (Steven A., Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, The U.S.-Egyptian Breakup, Foreign Affairs, 2-2, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67347/steven-a-cook/the-us-egyptian-breakup)

  "The United States was not responsible for the inequity of Mubarak's rule, but it did enable and benefit from it. Mubarak was long "
  AND
  "political actors is unlikely to influence the trajectory of Egypt's transition."

  Backlash makes aid useless
  Washington Post 11 (U.S. offers aid for Egyptian democracy, but quietly, 3-6, p. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/05/AR2011030503569.html)

  "For years, the United States tried to offer democracy-building help here but was thwarted by an Egyptian government "
  AND
  "oppressed them."

  EU CP

  Text: The European Union should_.

  EU democracy assistance solves and avoids backlash
  Hill, 11 (Steven, Writer at the Global Policy Institute, “The Arab Spring is an Opportunity...for Europe”, July 8, http://www.gpilondon.com/index.php?id=302)

  The Arab Spring is a historic moment of … balance has tipped somewhat toward Iran.
   

  MCA CP

  The United States Millennium Challenge Corporation should allocate Millennium Challenge Account funds <insert topic country> if <topic country> does <whatever the aim of the Aff’s democracy assistance> 

  Only development aid can promote long-term democratic growth. The MCC is key to civil society and good governance.
  Beard 09 (Elle, Project Manager for US Programs @ Atlantic Partnership and Presidential Fellow @ Univ. of Michigan Ford School of Public Policy, "Are We Doing Enough? Sustainable Democracy Promotion and the Millennium Challenge Corporation," http://www.thepresidency.org/storage/documents/Fellows2009/University_of_Michigan_Beard.pdf)

  Democracy is defined by the US legislative … of democratic institutions and practices.

  The CP is a strong incentive for democratic reform. Ukraine and Turkey prove incentive strategies work.

  Cook 05 (Steven, Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, "The Right Way to Promote Arab Reform," Foreign Affairs, March/April, http://www.cfr.org/democracy-promotion/right-way-promote-arab-reform/p8115)

  The best way to do so would be to move . .demand a significant amount of political will. 

  Yemen Corruption Reform CP

  The United States Federal Government should make current foreign and military assistance for Yemen contingent on the government of Yemen implementing a political reform agenda that includes anti-corruption measures and full political participation.

  Pressure for political reform restores U.S. credibility, undermines Al Qaeda, and solves instability in Yemen.
  Porges, 11/16/2010 (Marisa - policy adviser in the U.S. Treasury and Defense Departments, Saving Yemen, Foreign Affairs, p. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67008/marisa-l-porges/saving-yemen?page=show)
  Yet implementing these reform and … the fight against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

  SKFTA DA

  1NC

  SKFTA will pass – political capital is key to resolve the TAA – that’s key to passage
  Palmer 9/2 (Doug, Reuters Reporter, " Analysis: Obama's trade legacy in a crucible this fall," 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902)

  "After a slow start that has frustrated U.S. business groups, the next four months could be important to President "
  AND
  "positive signal," said Jeffrey Schott, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "

  Plan costs capital
  Sharp8-23-2011 (Jeremy, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs for the Congressional Research Service, "Egypt in Transition," http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33003.pdf)
  "Although the Egyptian government has expressed its gratitude for U.S. support, some analysts and Egyptians believe that the "
  AND
  "reform in Egypt.  "

  Political capital is key to SKFTA - solves the economy, trade leadership, and Korean war
  WSJ 10 (Wall Street Journal, “A Korea-U.S. Trade Deal, At Last”, 12-6, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704767804576000542290721476.html)

  "The Korea pact is a step forward, but now the President has to sell it. What a long, strange trip it's been for the South "
  AND
  "businesses and workers."

  Korea war turns every impact and causes extinction
  Hayes and Green 10 (Peter, Professor of International Relations – Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology and Director – Nautilus Institute, and Michael Hamel, Victoria University, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, Nautilus Institute Special Report, 1-5, http://www.nautil us.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf)

  "At worst, there is the possibility of nuclear attack1, whether by intention, miscalculation, or merely accident, "
  AND
  "international community."

  GSU Uniqueness 1NR

  Top of agenda – passes Monday
  AFP 9/16 (AFP – News Agency, “US Senate eyes progress on stalled trade deals”, 2011, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iminzWDVGuhwffBQW5YQE2DInBrQ?docId=CNG.b6d207691ba28c0711d32cc4f2496bd7.281)

   WASHINGTON — US Senate Majority Leader Harry …what the next step would be. 

  No roadblocks once TAA passes
  NAWG 9/16 (National Association for Wheat Growers, “Senate deal could prompt movement on pending FTAs”, 2011, http://southeastfarmpress.com/government/senate-deal-could-prompt-movement-pending-ftas)

  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid …willing to send the FTAs to Capitol Hill for consideration. 

  TAA is passing next week – paves way for SKFTA
  Needham 9/14 (Vicki – The Hill, “GOP increases pressure on Obama to move trade deals”, 2011, http://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/181677-boeing-stays-out-of-fray-over-gops-nlrb-bill)

  The latest pressure from the GOP …. Many House Republicans do not like the TAA program. 

  Bipartisan support
  Palmer 9/13 (Doug – Reuters, “Momentum builds for U.S. action on trade deals”, 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/13/us-usa-trade-deals-idUSTRE78C7QW20110913?feedType=RSS&feedName=domesticNews)

  But Representative Kevin Brady, a …since January 2009. 

  Vote Count and TAA approval
  Reuters 9/8 (“U.S. group says confident of trade deals approval,” 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/08/us-usa-trade-deals-idUSTRE7874WE20110908)

  A top U.S. business group on … and two key members of the House and the Senate. 

  Job agenda – Obama pushing and businesses are confident it will pass
  Nasdaq 9/1 (“US Business Groups Optimistic About Trade Pacts,” 9/1/2011, http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201109010655dowjonesdjonline000352&title=us-business-groups-optimistic-about-trade-pacts)

  U.S. business groups voiced renewed …be passed by mid-October, he said. 

  Ratification happens this month – both countries
  Dong-A Ilbo Daily 9/10 (“Penny wise and pound foolish,” 9/10/2011, http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?biid=2011091077078)

  The U.S. Congress has begun …passage of additional bills. 

  Obama has sufficient political capital
  Keilar 9/14 (Briana – CNN White House Correspondent, “Obama to GOP: You're either with me, or you're against me.”, 2011, http://whitehouse.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/14/obama-to-gop-youre-either-with-me-or-youre-against-me/)

  "It's quite the role reversal.  As the president tries to play hardball, House Republicans – who were downright "
  AND
  "appears the President Obama is going all in. "

  Egypt Politics Links 1NR

  Only a risk of a link – PC is finite
  Pika 2 (Joseph, et al., Professor of Political Science – University of Delaware, The Politics of the Presidency, Fifth Edition, p. 293-294)

  "Resources: Political Capital. One of the most important resources for a president is political capital. This is the "
  AND
  "the emphasis to be placed on existing programs."

  More links –

  A) GOP freak out
  Dueck, 11 (Colin, associate professor of public and international affairs at George Mason University, “Conservative Foreign Policy & Reagan's Legacy”, March 22, Free Republic, http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2693775/posts)

  "America's current armed conflict with Muammar Gaddafi raises a cluster of familiar questions about U.S. "
  AND
  "well-meaning."

  B) Gets tied to Bush-style democracy – that costs capital
  Lappin, 10 (Richard, “Obama and Democracy Assistance: Challenges and Responses”, Carnegie Council, Feb 1, http://www.carnegiecouncil.org/resources/ethics_online/0042.html)

  "U.S. democracy assistance has traditionally been a bipartisan affair. Title IX of the Foreign Assistance Act 1966, "
  AND
  "critical if democracy assistance is to remain a preserve of U.S. foreign policy."

  C) Lawmakers with the most clout hate the plan – outweighs the link turn
  Sharp, 11 (Jeremy M., Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs – CRS, “Egypt: Background and U.S. Relations”, February 7, Congressional Research Service, http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/RL33003_20110207.pdf)

  "Members of Congress are closely monitoring the situation in Egypt, and some leading figures have called for U.S. "
  AND
  "cooperation with the United States"

  Answers to Winners Win

  Turn – the plan’s a loss – our link proves Obama would fight it – losers lose

  Ornstein 1 (Norman, Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, Roll Call, 9-10, Lexis)

  "In a system where a President has limited formal power, perception matters. The reputation for success - the belief "
  AND
  "losers lose more often than not."

  No turns – capital can’t be replenished
  Pika 2 (Joseph, et al., Professor of Political Science – University of Delaware, The Politics of the Presidency, Fifth Edition, p. 293-294)

  "Resources: Political Capital. One of the most important resources for a president is political capital. This is the "
  AND
  "the emphasis to be placed on existing programs."

  Studies prove
  Bond and Fleisher 96 (Jon R. and Richard, Professors of Political Science – Texas A&M University, The President in Legislation, p. 223)

  "Presidency-centered variables, however, provide an even weaker explanation of presidential success. We found little support for "
  AND
  "has only a marginal impact on the probability of success or failure."

  SKFTA impacts

  Brink of war now - fast timeframe and high probability
  Doyne 10 (Shannon, Reporter – NYT, and Holly Ojalvo, New York Times – Learning Blog, 12-3, http://learning .blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/03/on-the-brink-teaching-about-tension-in-north-and-south-korea/?src=twrhp)

  On the Brink: Teaching About Tension in North and South Korea
  "Skirmishes between North Korea and South Korea have been far from rare in recent years, but the shots "
  AND
  "new uranium enriching program."

  They’ll use bioweapons - including smallpox
  Jung 9 (Sung-Ki, “N. Korea Has 13 Types of Biological Weapons”, Korea Times, 10-5, http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2009/10/113_52961.html)

  "North Korea is believed to possess 13 types of viruses and germs that it can readily use in the event of a conflict, a "
  AND
  "include cholera, pest, yellow fever, smallpox, eruptive typhus, typhoid fever and dysentery."

  Extinction
  Singer 1 (Clifford E., Professor of Nuclear Engineering and Director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security – University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, “Will Mankind Survive the Millennium?”, http://www.acdis.uiuc.edu/research/S&Ps/2001-Sp/S&P_XIII/Singer.htm)

  "There are, however, two technologies currently under development that may pose a more serious threat to human "
  AND
  "if this is achieved."

  Failure collapses overall leadership - destroys all allied relationships
  Mandel 10 (Seth, Foreign Affairs Writer and U.S. Correspondent, Weekly Blitz, 12-29, http://www.weeklyblitz.net/1192/what-obama-refusal-to-enact-the-colombia-trade)

  "Coincidentally, Gibbs announced the agreement would not be forwarded to Congress on the same day Obama met "
  AND
  "we can't be counted on, period."

  ESF DA

  US renewed commitment to Pakistani economic assistance
  AFP, 11 (“US renews commitment to economic support for Pakistan”, July 15, Business Recorder, http://www.brecorder.com/pakistan/business-a-economy.html)

  WASHINGTON: The United States … make sure that they match Pakistan's.

  Aff’s funding forces a tradeoff within the ESF budget
  POMED, 11 (Project on Middle East Democracy, “Summary and Highlights of FY11 Appropriations Act”, April 17, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/04/summary-and-highlights-of-fy11-appropriations-act.html/)

  Speaking on the wave of democratic protests in the Middle East,… Funds intended for other programming.

  ESF funding is key to Pakistani economic growth
  Kronstadt and Epstein, 11 (Susan B., Specialist in Foreign Policy, K. Alan, Specialist in South Asian Affairs, “Pakistan: U.S. Foreign Assistance”, June 7, Congressional Research Service, www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41856.pdf)

  The Economic Support Fund (ESF), $1,360 ….humanitarian crises. (FY2010 – $10.0 million; FY2012 request – $20.0 million)

  That causes regional instability, terror, economic collapse, and global war
  Walayat 10 (Nadeem, Editor – Market Oracle, “Pakistan Collapse Could Trigger Global Great Depression and World War III”, The Market Oracle, 1-16, http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16543.html)  

  During 2009 the 2600 terrorist attacks …resulted in the Second World War.

  Backlash DA

  1NC

  Military control is at a breaking point – any perceived loss of power causes lashout
  Allen 11 (Michael, Editor of Democracy Digest, “Egypt’s democrats divided over military’s role and continuing protests,” Democracy Digest, 7-25, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/07/egypts-democrats-divided-over-militarys-role-and-continuing-protests/)

  "Egypt’s government today pledged to purge senior officials from Hosni Mubarak’s regime and continue with public corruption trials in an effort to placate "
  AND
  "institutions. But when that happens, it is usually by accident — and some other institution would always do a better job. "

  Democracy aid causes military freak out
  Richter and Fleishman 11 (Paul, reporter in Washington, and Jeffrey, reporter in Cairo,  “U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way,” LA Times, 8-10, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811)

  "Six months after pro-democracy protesters ousted longtime Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, U.S. efforts to help promote "
  AND
  "about $40 million of the total $165 million has been distributed. ""

  The military will bash Israel – escalates to war
  Zahran 11 (Mudar, Palestinian writer, “Egypt's Military Council Toying with Israel,” Hudson Institute, 9-9, http://www.hudson-ny.org/2410/egypt-military-council-israel)

  "While the Egyptian revolution was still boiling, Israel and its close allies were concerned that a change of regime in Egypt might "
  AND
  "this cause. "

  Extinction
  Morgan 9 (Dennis Ray, Professor of Current Affairs – Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, South Korea, “World on Fire: Two Scenarios of the Destruction of Human Civilization and Possible Extinction of the Human Race”, Futures, 41(1), p. 685)

  "In a remarkable website on nuclear war, Carol Moore asks the question ‘‘Is Nuclear War Inevitable??’’ [10].4 In Section 1, Moore "
  AND
  "a savage toll upon the environment and fragile ecosphere as well. "

  2NC

  Specifically causes crackdown on NGOs
  NED 6 (National Endowment for Democracy, “The Backlash Against Democracy Assistance,” 6-8, http://www.ned.org/docs/backlash06.pdf)

  "Foreign governments’ efforts to impede democracy assistance—from legal constraints on NGOs to extra-legal "
  AND
  "activists, and making it more difficult for them to receive and utilize international assistance and solidarity. "

  And means NGOs reject aid
  Schenker 11 (David, director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Egypt’s Enduring ChallengesPolicy Recommendations,” Washington Institute, 7-25, http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459)

  "Some NGOs in post-Mubarak Egypt might be hesitant to accept U.S. funding. More than likely, however, the freer "
  AND
  "climate may remain somewhat constrained."

  Aid to NGOs causes backlash
  Hendawi 11 (Hamza, Associated Press, “U.S.-Egypt tension rises over aid issue,” 8-12, http://articles.philly.com/2011-08-12/news/29880746_1_emergency-law-egyptian-authorities-egyptian-government)

  "The USAID director in Egypt abruptly flew back to Washington on Thursday after less than a year on the job, the "
  AND
  "would take place in stages in November and December. "

  Link is huge and extremely likely
  Cook 11 (Steven A., Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, The U.S.-Egyptian Breakup, Foreign Affairs, 2-2, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67347/steven-a-cook/the-us-egyptian-breakup)

  "The urge among many in Washington to try to shape Egyptian political change betrays the belief that Egyptians have no "
  AND
  "the Free Officers took over. "

  Aid to the Muslim Brotherhood causes military backlash
  Malka 11 (Haim, Senior Fellow, Middle East Program, CSIS, “Military Aid to Egypt: A Critical Link,” Huffington Post, 2-5, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/haim-malka/military-aid-to-egypt-a-c_b_818818.html)

  "Regardless of how events unfold, the military will aim to preserve its unique position within the Egyptian governing "
  AND
  "the last."

  Answers to Democracy Advantage

  Status quo solves
  Peters 11 (Anne Mariel, assistant professor in the department of government at Wesleyan University, “Why Obama shouldn't increase democracy aid to Egypt,” Foreign Policy, 2-14, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/why_obama_shouldn_t_increase_democracy_aid_to_egypt)

  "The United States should promote democracy in Egypt, and the Obama administration has shown itself to be "
  AND
  "that democracy and governance funding can do."

  Democracy aid fails
  Peters 11 (Anne Mariel, assistant professor in the department of government at Wesleyan University, “Why Obama shouldn't increase democracy aid to Egypt,” Foreign Policy, 2-14, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/why_obama_shouldn_t_increase_democracy_aid_to_egypt)

  "Returning to the big picture, the most fundamental problem with traditional democracy and governance programs is that "
  AND
  "will not mean more democracy in Egypt. "

  Aid causes public backlash – NGOs will reject it
  Strasser 11 (Max, editorial researcher – Foreign Policy, “Egypt warns of foreign meddling as US pushes on with democracy programs,” 5-7, http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/474767)

  "As Egypt prepares for its first free and fair parliamentary elections in recent memory this September, the US government and "
  AND
  "programs are working behind the Egyptian government’s back. “We do tell them everything,” the official said. "

   No nuclear terrorism – acquisition impossible – prefer recent evidence
  Krepon 9 (Michael, Co-Founder – Henry L. Stimson Center and Diplomat Scholar – University of Virginia, “The Mushroom Cloud That Wasn’t”, Foreign Affairs, May / June, Lexis)

  "At the height of the Cold War, almost no one was bold enough or foolish enough to predict the Soviet Union's collapse, let alone "
  AND
  "cooperate in preventing worst-case scenarios from occurring  than ever before."

   No retaliation
  Davis and Jenkin 2 (Paul K., Professor – RAND Corporation and Research Leader – Naval Studies Board, and Brian M., Special Advisor – RAND Corporation and International Chamber of Commerce, RAND Research Paper,
  http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1619/MR1619.pdf)

  "Deterring acquisition and use of WMD is profoundly important and difficult. Terrorists appear to have grandiose intentions, and "
  AND
  "some, we regard it as very dangerous."

   No attacks – terrorists are weak
  Mueller 9 (John, Professor of Political Science – Ohio State University and Contributor – Foreign Affairs, “How Dangerous Are the Taliban?”, Foreign Affairs, April / May, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64932/john-mueller/how-dangerous-are-the-taliban)

  "In addition, al Qaeda has yet to establish a significant presence in the United States. In 2002, U.S. intelligence reports asserted that "
  AND
  "organizing and leading a terrorist operation," Carle notes, and "its capabilities are far inferior to its desires.""

  Corruption blocks Egyptian solar power
  PA 11 (Petroleum African, “Egypt’s Renewable Energy Hopes Overshadowed by Corruption,” 5-2, http://www.petroleumafrica.com/en/newsarticle.php?NewsID=11435)

  "As Egypt struggles to meet its growing power generation needs with the use of natural gas, its biggest natural "
  AND
  "watch initial bid rounds with caution before jumping into the mix."

   Russian expansion inevitable
  Stratfor 8 (“The Russian Resurgence and the New-Old Front”, 9-15,
  http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20080915_russian_resurgence_and_new_old_front)

  "Russia is attempting to reforge its Cold War-era influence in its near abroad. This is not simply an issue of "
  AND
  "set of policies."

  Answers to Credibility Advantage

  US influence is impossible – human rights hypocrisy
  Katulis 9 (Brian - senior fellow at American Progress, Democracy Promotion in the Middle East and the Obama Administration, The Century Foundation, p. 8-9)

  "Actions speak louder than words. In addition to changing how it talks about democracy and freedom, the United States must "
  AND
  "actions on the democracy promotion front are perceived throughout the Middle East."

  Democracy assistance crushes US influence – goes too far
  Cook 11 (Steven A., Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, The U.S.-Egyptian Breakup, Foreign Affairs, 2-2, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67347/steven-a-cook/the-us-egyptian-breakup)

  "Policy analysts and democracy-promotion specialists are already racing to formulate a strategy that matches substantial "
  AND
  "relationship with Iran."

  No solvency – neutrality –

  US will pick winners
  Cook 11 (Steven A. - Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, America Shouldn’t Hijack Egypt’s Revolution, Foreign Policy, 3-9, p. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/09/america_shouldnt_hijack_egypts_revolution)

  "Even if Washington pledges its total neutrality in Egyptian politics, a bold and public democracy-promotion effort "
  AND
  "political movements, and said that he is "skeptical" about the Muslim Brotherhood's democratic bona fides."

  That destroys credibility
  Carothers 11 (Thomas, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “How Not To Promote Democracy In Egypt,” Washington Post, 2-24, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/02/24/how-not-to-promote-democracy-in-egypt/156)

  "As the U.S. government assesses the uprisings across the Middle East and scrambles to support Egypt's fledgling democratic "
  AND
  "candidates or parties during the various elections since 2005. "

  US influence with Egypt is inevitable
  BBC 11 ("Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood site mulls mission of new US ambassador", 6-1, Lexis)

  "He added that bilateral relations are expected to be quiet in general although they might undergo difficulties or lack of "
  AND
  "tourism will resume flowing to Egypt."

  Iran prolif is inevitable and has no impact
  Easterbrook 10 (Gregg, Reuters columnist, “What will Iran do with nuclear weapons? Probably nothing,” 4-22, http://blogs.reuters.com/gregg-easterbrook/2010/04/22/what-will-iran-do-with-nuclear-weapons-probably-nothing/)

  "World leaders meeting in Washington last week engaged in a competition to see which could make the strongest remark about Iran "
  AND
  "while a senator. The best defense against Iranian nuclear arms is better diplomatic relations with Iran."

  Answers to Japan Relatoins

  Alliance resilient – its unbreakable
  Okamoto 2 (Yukio, President – Okamoto Associates, Washington Quarterly, Spring, Lexis)

  "Given the magnitude of the danger that an end of the alliance would pose to both Japan and the United States, "
  AND
  "acceptable alternatives."

  No impact to Japanese prolif
  Sapolsky 97 (Harvard, Professor of Public Policy and Organization – Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Eugune Gholz and Daryl Press, Doctoral Candidates – MIT, “Come Home, America”, International Security, Spring)

  "Despite the favorable Asian conventional balances, some Asian powers might feel pressure at the nuclear level "
  AND
  "issues to the South Koreans and Japanese if they decide to pursue their own deterrent forces."

  Anti-nuclear norms
  DiFilippo 2 (Anthony, Professor of Sociology – Lincoln University, The Challenges of the U.S.-Japan Military Arrangement: Competing Security Transitions in a Changing International Environment, p. 174-175)

  "Some analysts speculate that without the security alliance with the United States, Japan may very well be inclined to "
  AND
  "disparity between Japan's financial support of the United Nations and the amount of influence that it has within this institution."

  Answers to Terrorism

  No nuclear terrorism – acquisition impossible – prefer recent evidence
  Krepon 9 (Michael, Co-Founder – Henry L. Stimson Center and Diplomat Scholar – University of Virginia, “The Mushroom Cloud That Wasn’t”, Foreign Affairs, May / June, Lexis)

  "At the height of the Cold War, almost no one was bold enough or foolish enough to predict the Soviet Union's collapse, let alone "
  AND
  "cooperate in preventing worst-case scenarios from occurring  than ever before."

  No motive for nuclear terror
  Maerli 00 (Morten Bremer, Science Program Fellow in the Center for International Security and Cooperation – Stanford University, “Relearning the ABCs: Terrorists and “Weapons of Mass Destruction”, The Nonproliferation Review, Summer)

  "Furthermore, a group’s interest in ABC weaponry is not the same as obtaining such capabilities.  Before any decision to deploy "
  AND
  "new means and methods of violence with unknown outcomes would be less appealing."

  No automatic Russian attack – ‘dead hand’ is fake
  Pry 99 (Peter Vincent, Former Member – CIA and Professional Military Advisor – House of Representatives, War Scare: Russia and America on the Nuclear Brink, p. 153)

  "General Korobushin and some other Russian military officers have told U.S. command and control specialist "
  AND
  "unequivocal answer to the question of whether or not in fact it exists.”"

  No extinction
  Easterbrook 3 (Gregg, Senior Fellow – New Republic, “We’re All Gonna Die!”, Wired Magazine, July, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.07/doomsday.html?pg=1&topic=&topic_set=)

  "If we're talking about doomsday - the end of human civilization - many scenarios simply don't measure up. A "
  AND
  "Things Past while lying in bed."

  
  
  

Neg v. Bahrain (Harvard KT) @ GSU

• Tournament: GSU | Round: 5 | Opponent: Harvard KT | Judge: Malsin
  
  

• 
  

  
  

• T – Material Assistance

  1. Democracy assistance includes civil society, political parties and elections assistance
     Mitchell and Phillips 8 (Lincoln A., Arnold A. Saltzman Assistant Professor in the Practice of International
     Politics at Columbia University’s School of International and Political Affairs, Chief of Party for the National
     Democratic Institute (NDI) in Georgia, and David L., project director of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and a visiting scholar at Columbia University’s Center for the Study of Human Rights. Former senior adviser to the US Department of State and the United Nations Secretariat. “Enhancing Democracy Assistance,” January 2008, The National Committee on American Foreign Policy, The Atlantic Council of the United States, http://acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf)

  "A toolbox of approaches and methods has come to define democracy assistance since the Cold War. However "
  AND
  "of democracies to run local services, building confidence in democratization. "

  2. Democracy Assistance is transfer of material
  Lappin 10 (Richard, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade, “What we talk about when we talk about Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,” Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, Vol 4, Issue 1, 2010)

  "Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as the non-profit transfer of funds, expertise, and "
  AND
  "commissions, state institutions, civil society groups, media groups and political parties.  "

   

  Politics

  SKFTA will pass – political capital is key to resolve the TAA – that’s key to passage
  Palmer 9/2 (Doug, Reuters Reporter, " Analysis: Obama's trade legacy in a crucible this fall," 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902)

  "After a slow start that has frustrated U.S. business groups, the next four months could be important to President "
  AND
  "positive signal," said Jeffrey Schott, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "

  Bahrain assistance ensures opposition
  The Hill, 5-11-11(“Time for legislation on Bahrain,” http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/160463-time-for-legislation-on-bahrain)

  "On Friday, Congress’ Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission will hold a hearing on Bahrain’sdeteriorating human rights "
  AND
  "Iran’sgain, trumps ideological action for a realist-oriented U.S."

  Political capital is key to SKFTA - solves the economy, trade leadership, and Korean war
  WSJ 10 (Wall Street Journal, “A Korea-U.S. Trade Deal, At Last”, 12-6, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704767804576000542290721476.html)

  "The Korea pact is a step forward, but now the President has to sell it. What a long, strange trip it's been for the South "
  AND
  "businesses and workers."

  Korea war turns every impact and causes extinction
  Hayes and Green 10 (Peter, Professor of International Relations – Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology and Director – Nautilus Institute, and Michael Hamel, Victoria University, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, Nautilus Institute Special Report, 1-5, http://www.nautil us.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf)

  "At worst, there is the possibility of nuclear attack1, whether by intention, miscalculation, or merely accident, "
  AND
  "international community."

   

  Security K

  Security is a social construct. Framing democracy as an objective matter of security performs a violent construction of identity and ignores our own role in provoking aggression
  Barkawi 99 (Tarak, Center for International Studies – University of Cambridge, and Marke Laffey, Lecturer in International Politics – SOAS, “The Imperial Peace: Democracy, Force, and Globalization”, European Journal of International Relations, 5(4), p. 419-422)

  "Discarding the assumptions of embedded statism that underpin the  democratic peace hypothesis enables us to illuminate "
  AND
  "international system. "

  Disorder and insecurity are inevitable. Attempting to control danger is the impetus for global destruction
  Der Derian 98 (James, Professor of Political Science – University of Massachusetts, On Security, Ed. Lipschutz, p. 24-25)

  "No other concept in international relations packs the metaphysical punch, nor commands the disciplinary power of "
  AND
  "of differences taking on the otherness of death, and identities calcifying into a fearful sameness. "

  Vote Neg to reject the dominant framing of security. This critical praxis is a prerequisite to effective policy solutions
  Bruce 96 (Robert, Associate Professor in Social Science – Curtin University and Graeme Cheeseman, Senior Lecturer – University of New South Wales, Discourses of Danger and Dread Frontiers, p. 5-9)

  "This goal is pursued in ways which are still unconventional in the intellectual milieu of international relations in Australia, even though they are gaining "
  AND
  "why?"

   

  Saudi DA

  Unique link – the push for democracy undermines the special relationship with Saudi Arabia. That leads to oil spikes.
  Nasr, 5/23/2011(Vali, Will the Saudis Kill the Arab Spring?, Bloomberg News, p. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-23/will-the-saudis-kill-the-arab-spring-.html)

  "In his speech last week on the Middle East, President Barack Obama left little doubt that America stands with the "
  AND
  "the Middle East."

  Extinction.
  Riddoch2004 (Dr. Malcolm, Faculty of Communications and Creative Industries – Edith Cowan University,Energy  Bulletin, 6-18, http://www.energybulletin.net/node/729)

  "There are lots of recent 2004 reports speculating about the Saudi's ability to increase production suggesting that the peak plateau may already have arrived with "
  AND
  "and pestilence."

   

  Pressure CP

  The United States Federal Government should condition the provision of current and future military and security assistance to the government of Bahrain on broader distribution of access to political benefits.

  Solves the entirety of the case. The U.S. has leverage to influence Bahrain and pressure restores credibility.
  Hiltermann, 9/7/2011 (Joost - deputy program director for Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, Pushing for reform in Bahrain, Foreign Affairs, p. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68246/joost-r-hiltermann/pushing-for-reform-in-bahrain?page=show)
  "The Obama administration should test the regime's intentions by setting two clear initial benchmarks: the "
  AND
  "way."

   

  Aid Tradeoff

  Despite tight budget fights, the International Affairs budget will remain stable.
  U.S. Global Leadership Coalition, 2/14/2011 (USGLC commends the Administration’s FY 2012 International Affairs Budget as Critical Part of National Security Budget, p. www.usglc.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Budget-Analysis.pdf)

  "The USGLC applauds the Administration’s FY2012 International Affairs Budget request as a critical "
  AND
  "Michael Mullen, andGeneral David Petraeus."

  Trade-offs are inevitable – the International Affairs budget is uniquely vulnerable.
  Kaminski, 8/22/2011 (Jane, A Comprehensive National Security Strategy, p http://www.usglc.org/2011/08/22/a-comprehensive-national-security-strategy/)

  "As the debate heats up over the budget, concerns continue about the disproportionate cuts todiplomacy and "
  AND
  "other agencies."

  The international affairs program is key to prevent global genocide.
  McMahon and Clark, 9/3/2011 (Cory - 2011 Carl Wilkens Fellow with the Genocide Intervention Network, and Richard - director of Peace, Justice and Human Rights program at John Carroll University, Don’t cut international humanitarian assistance, Huntington News, p. http://www.huntingtonnews.net/8850)

  "Genocide expert Daniel Goldhagen has shown that genocide — which includes deliberate famine and other silent "
  AND
  "and suffering humanity is in the U.S. enlightened national self-interest. "

  Genocide risks nuclear extinction
  Diamond 92 (Dr. Jared M., Professor of Geography, Environmental Health Sciences, and Physiology – UCLA, The Third Chimpanzee: The Evolution and Future of the Human Animal, p. 277)

  "While our first association to the world “genocide” is likely to be the killings in Nazi concentration camps, those "
  AND
  "human species may reverse all its progress virtually overnight."

   

  Democracy Advantage

  Authoritarianism inevitable –opposition voices have been silenced and the king has locked in his authority
  Black, 8/8 (Ian, “Bahrain's prospects for democracy look bleak, as divisions deepen”, http://www.uruknet.info/?new=80346)

  "The drama peaked in mid-March when Saudi forces moved across the King Fahd causeway in a show of force that "
  AND
  "serving prime minister – since 1971."

  Government unwilling to conduct effective dialogue with opposition
  Washington Post 11 (Editorial, “Bahrain Needs U.S. Attention Now,” Washington Post, 9/9,  http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bahrain-needs-us-attention-now/2011/09/09/gIQAjoH9FK_story.html

  "That’s partly because Bahrain’s ruling al-Khalifa family deflected criticism from the massive crackdown it "
  AND
  "polarized than ever, and the fault line increasingly falls between the ruling Sunni elite and majority Shiite population."

   Democracy doesn’t solve war
  Taner 2 (Binner, PhD Candidate – Syracuse U., Alternatives: Turkish Journal of Int’l Relations, 1(3), p. 43-44, http://www.alternativesjournal.com/binnur.pdf)

  "The discussion above suggests that the most important drawback of the “democratic peace” theory is the "
  AND
  "theoretically and empirically overdetermined."

   Democracy doesn’t prevent the main threats to peace
  Ostrowski 2 (James, Staff – Rockwell, “The Myth of Democratic Peace, Spring,
  http://www.lewrockwell.com/ostrowski/ostrowski72.html)

  "Spencer R. Weart alleges that democracies rarely if ever go to war with each other. Even if this is true, it distorts "
  AND
  "because of its democratically-induced interventions into ethnic/religious disputes in their parts of the world."

   Democratic peace is a myth – no statistical basis
  Gowa 95 (Joanne, “Democratic States and International Disputes”, 6-22, http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-194275_ITM)

  "Students of this issue have been very careful to make clear that whether or not a state is democratic does not affect its overall "
  AND
  "to occur between democracies than between members of other pairs of states."

   US Engagement fails – alt causes –  

  A) Guantanamo
  NPR 3 (National Public Radio, 8-5, Lexis)

  "Ms. EBEID: You know, US credibility as a promoter of democracy is at its lowest. And that comes from "
  AND
  "allies but in reality they see us more as Muslims and Arabs first."

  B) Huge laundry list
  Torture Gitmo  Rendition Eavesdropping  Cruel Treatment
  Carothers 6 (Thomas, Vice Prez Int’l Politics – CEIP, Foreign Affairs, March/April, Lexis)

  "The Bush administration has further damaged the credibility of U.S. democracy advocates by generally undermining "
  AND
  "country that tortures people abroad and abuses rights at home tell other countries how to behave?""

  C) Iraq
  OA 7 (Oxford Analytica, “Anti-American Sentiment Grows Worldwide”, 8-23, http://www.mail-archive.com/sustainablelorgbiofuel@sustainablelists.org/msg70843.html)

  "Democracy promotion. The invasion of Iraq has undermined the credibility of U.S. democracy promotion "
  AND
  "again, with the arrival of a new U.S. president and the withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq."

   

  Fifth Fleet – 1NC

  5th fleet safe in Bahrain
  McCormick 11 (Ty - journalist based between Washington DC, the Middle East, and Oxford, UK, named a Clarendon Scholar at Oxford University, “The Arab Recession,” Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/07/22/the_arab_recession)

  "Suzanne Maloney, a senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, told FP in an email, "
  AND
  "to sink anytime soon."

  2) Fleet alternatives exist
  The Australian 11 (“US fleet may quit troubled Bahrain”, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/us-fleet-may-quit-troubled-bahrain/story-e6frg6so-1226098580227)

  "THE US Navy is looking at plans to move its Fifth Fleet away from Bahrain amid fears over violence and "
  AND
  ""occasional visitors". "

  5th fleet doesn’t have to be in the Gulf for stability- we have rapid reaction forces
  Jones 11 (Toby C. - assistant professor of history at Rutgers University, Author of Desert Kingdom: How Oil and Water Forged Modern Saudi Arabia and an editor at Middle East Report, 6/10, The Atlantic “Time to Disband the Bahrain-Based U.S. Fifth Fleet,” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-basedusfifth-fleet/240243/

  "It’s time for the Fifth Fleet to go. It is not enough that the fleet and its massive base be moved. Rather, it "
  AND
  "region. The Fifth Fleet would be a good place to start."

   Naval power resilient – no challengers to overwhelming U.S. power
  Posen 3 (Barry R., Professor of Political Science – Massachusetts Institute of Technology, “Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of U.S. Hegemony”, International Security, 28(1), Ebsco)

  "Command of the commons is the military foundation of U.S. political preeminence. It is the key enabler of the "
  AND
  "leverage other sources of U.S. power to secure additional bases and overflight rights as needed.  "

   Iran won’t be aggressive – too many checks in the system
  Boroujerdi 7 (Mehrzad, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program, “Iranian Nuclear Miasma”, Syracuse Law Review, 57 Syracuse L. Rev. 619, Lexis)

  "The potential for groupthink miscalculations is also thwarted by the existence of multiple consensus-based "
  AND
  "miscalculated action less realistic."

  Egypt is checking Iran now
  Nassif Hitti is a political analyst and a former professor of international relations July 15, 2011 The Daily Star (Lebanon) “The ‘Arab spring’ brings on regional transformation” http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2011/Jul-15/The-Arab-spring-brings-on-regional-transformation.ashx#axzz1SsnCee9Q

  "Second, we are seeing the return of Egypt to its traditional and active role in the Arab world and in Africa. "
  AND
  "bilateral cooperation while also recognizing the special status of the other in the region. "

  Naval power fails – on the ground forces key
  Guardiano 9 (John, Marine – Iraq and Worker – Army’s Future Combat Systems, “Air Power Alone Cannot Win Wars”, New Majority, 8-12, http://www.newmajority.com/air-power-alone-cannot-win-wars)

  "One of the great lessons of recent military history is that wars cannot be won through air power alone; you need "
  AND
  "set back Iranian nuclear development…” "

  Heg doesn’t prevent conflict
  Crawford 3 (Timothy W., Professor of Political Science – Boston College, Pivotal Deterrence: Third-Party Statecraft and the Pursuit of Peace, p. 209-210)

  Forward Engagement, Global Leadership, and U.S. Pivotal Deterrence
  "As the preponderant power in a globalized and interdependent world, the United States—so we are told—must "
  AND
  "as it knits back together."

   Heg is resilient
  Wohlforth 7 (William, Professor of Government – Dartmouth College, “Unipolar Stability”, Harvard International Review, Spring, http://hir.harvard.edu/articles/1611/3/)

  "US military forces are stretched thin, its budget and trade deficits are high, and the country continues to finance its profligate ways "
  AND
  "of latent power. "

   

  Security K Block

   

  Framework – 2NC

  2.  Representations must come first – pure policy analysis causes serial policy failure by ignoring underlying assumptions
  Bilgin 4 (Pinar - assistant prof, IR, Bilkent U. PhD, IR, U Wales, Is the 'Orientalist' past the Future of Middle East Studies?, Third World Quarterly, Vol. 25, No. 2, 423-433, JSTOR)

  "To go back to Little's argument about American Orientalism, the contrast between Kramer's and Little's understandings of what Orientalism is, and its impact on "
  AND
  "lifetime.52"

  3.  Framing is prior – sole focus on cost-benefit analysis is epistemologically flawed and crowds out ethics
  Biswas 7 (Shampa, Professor of Politics – Whitman College, “Empire and Global Public Intellectuals: Reading Edward Said as an International Relations Theorist”, Millennium, 36(1), p. 117-125)

  "It has been 30 years since Stanley Hoffman accused IR of being an ‘American social science’ and noted its too close "
  AND
  "politics (rather than techno-expertise) in the most fundamental and important senses of the vocation.21"

   

  A2: Perm

  4. Linkage with Security

  Their justifications fuse democracy into the area of security - opens a window for militarist response
  Wilkins 10 (Karin – Prof. at University of Austin – Texas, Associate Director at Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Ph.D. – Univ. of Pennsylvania, “Considering “Traditional Society” in the Middle East: Learning Lerner All Over Again”, 2010, Journal of Middle East Media, http://www2.gsu.edu/~wwwaus/LernerWilkins.pdf)

  "Not all of USAID work fits squarely into the early Lernerian model though. While Lerner focused on individual change within the "
  AND
  "development, the cost of NOT giving over hearts and minds may well lie in the losing of bodies. "

   

  Link – Impact Claims – Hegemony

  Pursuit of hegemony is a fantasy of control that relies upon construction of threatening Otherness - this prompts resistance and create a permanent state of conflict
  Chernus 6 (Ira, Professor of Religious Studies and Co-director of the Peace and Conflict Studies Program – University of Colorado-Boulder, Monsters to Destroy: The Neoconservative War on Terror and Sin, p. 53-54)

  "The end of the cold war spawned a tempting fantasy of imperial omnipotence on a global scale. The neocons want to turn that fantasy "
  AND
  "national insecurity. Otherwise, there is nothing to overcome. The more frightened the public, the more likely it is to believe and enact the neocon story. "

  Culminates in planetary annihilation
  Dallymayr 4 (Fred, Professor of Philosophy and Political Science – University of Notre Dame, “The Underside of Modernity: Adorno, Heidegger, and Dussel”, Constellations, 11(1))

  "What Dussel here calls asymmetry is otherwise often called hegemony – or else the onset of a new global imperialism "
  AND
  "you can do it – how easily you could press a button and annihilate the earth.26"

   

  Link – Impact Claims – Hegemony (Kagan)

  Kagan is the worst example - his scholarship distorts policy and security assessment
  Dalby 6 (Simon, Professor of Geography – Carleton, Hegemony or Empire?, Ed. Grondin & Philippe, p. 40-41)

  "There is a rich irony in the warning in Rebuilding America’s Defenses where the authors wonder about the utility of "
  AND
  "that emphasize conflict and militarized understandings of security.23"

   

  Link – Regions – Middle East

  Their representation of Mideast instability is an orientalist discourse defined according to imperial interests
  Bilgin 4 (Pinar, Bilkent University, “Whose ‘Middle East’? Geopolitical Inventions and Practices of Security”, International Relations, 18(1), p. 28)

  "What I call the ‘Middle East’ perspective is usually associated with the United  States and its regional allies. It "
  AND
  "treachery and imprisoned at worst."

  Aff evidence is suspect – Middle East studies package the world according to conservative strategic interests
  Gerges 91 (Fawaz A., Professor of International Affairs and Middle Eastern Studies – Sarah Lawrence, “The Study of Middle East International Relations: A Critique”, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 18(2), Jstor)

  "Thirdly, and closely related to the preceding problem, is the policy orientation  of the field. The ideological rivalry "
  AND
  "dilemmas and concerns facing U.S. foreign policy in the post-  Second World War period.34   "

   

  A2: Predictions Good (Kurasawa)

  Their predictions backfire - dystopic alarmism gets twisted to lock in oppression
  Kurasawa 4 (Fuyuki, Professor of Sociology – York University of Toronto, “Cautionary Tales: The Global Culture of Prevention and the Work of Foresight”, Constellations, 11(4))

  "Up to this point, I have tried to demonstrate that transnational socio-political relations are nurturing a thriving "
  AND
  "much as alarmist ideas beget a culture of fear, the reverse is no less true. "

   

  A2: Realism Inevitable

  Circular. Realism is dominant because its tenants are believed. Claiming “inevitability” annihilates agency.
  Bleiker 00 (Roland, Senior Lecturer and Coordinator of the Peace and Conflict Studies Program – University of Queensland and Professor – Australian National University, Popular Dissent, Human Agency and Global Politics, p. 48-49)

  "The very notion of prediction does, by its own logic, annihilate human agency. To assert that international "
  AND
  "process that reshapes these entrenched perceptions and the ensuing political practices. "

   

  Alternative – 2NC

  Rejecting security solves the impact to the K
  Neocleous 8 (Mark, Professor of the Critique of Political Economy – Brunel University, Critique of Security, p. 185-186)

  "The only way out of such a dilemma, to escape the fetish, is perhaps to eschew the logic of security altogether - to reject it "
  AND
  "and handing it to the state; it requires us to be brave enough to return the gift."' "

  Critical intellectualism creates change – answers all of their “alt fails” args
  Jones 99 (Richard Wyn, Professor of International Relations – Aberystwyth University, Security, Strategy, and Critical Theory, p. 155-163)

  "The central political task of the intellectuals is to aid in the construction of a counterhegemony and thus undermine "
  AND
  "the very survival of the human race, should act as both an inspiration and a challenge to critical security studies."

  Pressure CP Block

  Pressure CP Solves

  Only pressure solves – the regime does not have an incentive to cooperate without the CP.
  International Crisis Group, 7/28/2011 (Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (VIII): Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform, Middle East/North Africa Report, No. 111, p. 20)

  "The only sustainable way forward is for the regime and opposition to engage in direct talks on gradual but "
  AND
  "notably U.S. backing for political reform."

  Pressure is key to restore U.S. credibility.
  Lickteig, August 2011 (Karen- Middle East Studies Center at Portland State University, The U.S. must get tough on Bahrain, p. http://www.policymic.com/article/show?id=1306)
  Despite its importance as a strategic ally, the U.S. must toughen its stance on the Bahraini government, by pressuring it to protect citizens' rights and take steps toward legitimizing the discredited "National Dialogue."
  "Bahrain is ruled by the Al Khalifa family, which has held power since independence from Britain in 1971. The "
  AND
  "that loses legitimacy on the world stage."

  Aid Tradeoff Block

  Aid Tradeoff Turns Democracy

  That undermines global leadership. A strong and effective IAB is critical to contain the escalation of conflicts and maintains global stability.
  Hagee and Loy, 9/16/2011 (General Michael - USMC, Ret., Commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps, and Admiral James - USCG, Ret., Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard and co-chair of the National Security Advisory Council of U.S. Global Leadership Coalition, Super Committee: Keep us safe with strong global leadership, The Hill, p. http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economy-a-budget/181743-super-committee-keep-us-safe-with-strong-global-leadership)

  "There is no greater privilege than serving your country, and we both proudly wore our uniforms for four decades. In our combined "
  AND
  "ensure a better, safer world and a more prosperous future. We hope they heed our call. "

  
  
  

Kentucky RR 6 vs Gonzaga KM

• Tournament: Kentucky RR | Round: 6 | Opponent: Gonzaga KM | Judge:
  
  

• SKFTA

   

  SKFTA will pass – highly likely.

  Dong-A Ilbo, 9/26/2011 (US to submit bill to ratify FTA with Korea early next month, p. http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?bicode=060000&biid=2011092668408)

  The U.S. is expected …. President Lee Myung-bak in Washington.

   

  The plan causes a massive congressional backlash

  Richter, 11 (4/12/2011, Paul LA Times, “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition; U.S. lawmakers not only have shut the door on new spending to stabilize countries rocked by the so-called Arab Spring. They have resisted proposals to shift money from other foreign aid programs,” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)

  The Obama administration's …. since the early 1980s.

   

  Political capital is key to SKFTA --- solves the economy, trade leadership, and Korean war

  WSJ 10 (Wall Street Journal, “A Korea-U.S. Trade Deal, At Last”, 12-6, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704767804576000542290721476.html)

  The Korea pact is ….American businesses and workers.

  Korea war turns every impact and causes extinction

  Hayes and Green 10 (Peter, Professor of International Relations – Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology and Director – Nautilus Institute, and Michael Hamel, Victoria University, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, Nautilus Institute Special Report, 1-5, http://www.nautil us.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf)

   

  At worst, there … the international community.

   

  --Linkage with security

  Wilkins 10 (Karin – Prof. at University of Austin – Texas, Associate Director at Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Ph.D. – Univ. of Pennsylvania, “Considering “Traditional Society” in the Middle East: Learning Lerner All Over Again”, 2010, Journal of Middle East Media, http://www2.gsu.edu/~wwwaus/LernerWilkins.pdf)

   

  Not all of USAID work fits squarely … hearts and minds may well lie in the losing of bodies.

  
  

   

  Doyne 10 (Shannon, Reporter – NYT, and Holly Ojalvo, New York Times – Learning Blog, 12-3, http://learning .blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/03/on-the-brink-teaching-about-tension-in-north-and-south-korea/?src=twrhp)

   

  On the Brink: Teaching About …enriching program.

  Escalation isn’t necessary for our impact --- studies prove even a limited war would disrupt global climate and commerce enough to trigger famine, eco collapse, and extinction --- that’s Hayes

  Superpowers get drawn in --- goes global

  Stares and Wit 9 (Paul, Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention – Council on Foreign Relations and, Joel, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow – Weatherhead East Asia Institute at Columbia University, “Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea”, January, http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/North_Korea_CSR42.pdf)

  These various scenarios …and American intervention in the North.

   

  Even small conflict escalates --- no checks --- and causes terrorism

  Bandow 93 (Doug, Senior Fellow – Cato Institute, “North Korea and the Risks of Coercive Nonproliferation”, Cato Foreign Policy Briefing, 5-4, http://www.ciaonet.org/wps/bad03/index.html)

  Not only are the odds long ….Americans--would probably have died.

   

  Global nuclear war

  Speice 6 (Patrick, JD Candidate, 47 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 1427, February, Lexis)

   

  Terrorist groups could acquire….escalate to the use of nuclear weapons.

   

  They’ll use bioweapons --- including smallpox

  Jung 9 (Sung-Ki, “N. Korea Has 13 Types of Biological Weapons”, Korea Times, 10-5, http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2009/10/113_52961.html)

   

  North Korea is believed to …fever and dysentery.

   

  Extinction

  Singer 1 (Clifford E., Professor of Nuclear Engineering and Director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security – University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, “Will Mankind Survive the Millennium?”, http://www.acdis.uiuc.edu/research/S&Ps/2001-Sp/S&P_XIII/Singer.htm)

  There are, however, two …...when and if this is achieved.

   

  Korean support and labor and business.

  Korea Times, 9/26/2011 (KORUS FTA set to pass, p. http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2011/09/123_95505.html)

  The head of the …. brought to a vote,’’ Schott said.

  Bipartisan support.

  Kaupke, 9/27/2011 (Charles - Young Leaders Program at the Heritage Foundation, Want Congressional Harmony? Try Free Trade Agreements, p. http://blog.heritage.org/2011/09/27/want-congressional-harmony-try-free-trade-agreements/)

  Congress keeps threatening …..We need to be in China’s backyard.”

  Momentum --- Senate passage of the TAA and GSP proves.

  Yonhap News, 9/22/2011 (Lee expects early ratification of Korea-U.S. trade deal, p. http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/09/23/19/0301000000AEN20110923006300315F.HTML)

  The accord was first signed in 2007 and …..shortly after the Senate vote.

  Budget fights have been small. Major fights are delayed for months.

  Condon, 9/27/2011 (Stephanie, Budget battle over - for now, CBS News, p. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20112238-503544.html)

  The final deal was struck …. larger fight by a couple of months.

  -- Comparative evidence – Obama pushes the plan

  Edwards and Barrett 00 (George C., Professor of Political Science – Texas A&M and Andrew W., PhD Candidate – Texas A&M, Polarized Politics: Congress and the President in a Partisan Era. Ed. Bond and Fleisher, p. 110-111)

  For decades, scholars have…..it is packaged (1990, 230).

  -- Most likely – no other interpretation makes sense

  Cohen 99 (Jeffrey, Professor of Political Science – Fordham University, and Ken Collier, Assistant Professor – University of Kansas, Presidential Policymaking: An End of Century Assessment, Ed. Shull, p. 45)

  Presidential influence …. in making an issue “national.”

  Normal means requires the President to push for legislation

  Spitzer 93 (Robert J, Professor of Political Science – State University of New York, Former Member – New York State Commission on the Bicentennial of the United States Constitution, and Former Chair of the Political Science Department – College of Cortland, President and Congress: Executive Hegemony at the Crossroads of American Government)

  As the discussion of history in …..we work them over.

  -- Political capital is the most important legislative tool

  Cohen 9 (Michael, Senior Research Fellow – New America Foundation, “Momentum Key for Health Care Bill”, 6-22, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23988.html)

  Throughout the 2008 ….. the power to catalyze.

   

  Outweighs the turn

  Light 99 (Paul C., Senior Fellow – Center for Public Service, The President’s Agenda: Domestic Policy Choice from Kennedy to Clinton, p. 34)

  In chapter 2, I will …. the domestic agenda.

  Winners lose – any major win is the quickest way to kill future proposals. The GOP will backlash

  The Economist, 2/16/2011 (What’s the equilibrium here?, p. lexis)

  The Obama administration's theory …. president have such a win.

  Controversial wins bleed momentum not build it.

  Politico, 1/20/2010 (Obama's first year: What went wrong, p. http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=4DF829C9-18FE-70B2-A8381A971FA3FFC9)

  Obama believed that early …. Capitol Hill over health care.

  Wins don’t spill over. Climate proves.

  Hertzberg, 2/7/2011 (Hendrik – senior editor and political essayist at the New Yorker, The New Yorker, p. http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2011/02/07/110207taco_talk_hertzberg?printable=true)

  Strong words. But now they are not …. more like Kryptonite.

  -- DOD is tied to Obama

  LA Times 8 (“Robert Gates Agrees to Stay on as Defense Chief Under Obama”, 11-26, http://articles.latimes.com/2008/nov/26/nation/na-gates26)

  An official close to the ….Obama administration.

   

  That means he gets the blame

  Greene 97 (Abner S., Associate Professor – Fordham University School of Law, “Fidelity In Constitutional Theory: Fidelity As Translation: Discounting Accountability”, Fordham Law Review, March, 65 Fordham L. Rev. 1489, Lexis)

  It is hard to argue that accountability … congressional lobbying.

   

  -- No motive for agro-terrorism

  Stratfor 8 (Global Forecasting, “Placing the Terrorist Threat to the Food Supply in Perspective”, April 22, http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/terrorism_weekly_april_22)

  Such attacks could potentially be …panic and economic loss.

   

  -- Terrorists won’t target agriculture

  Chalk 4 (Peter, Senior Policy Analyst – RAND Corporation, Hitting America’s Soft Underbelly: The Potential Threat of Deliberate Biological Attacks Against the US Agricultural and Food Industries, RAND, p. 28)

  Despite the ease with ….in Kenya (see Table 3.2).

   

  T- Foster Democracy

  A. Interpretation – democracy assistance must have the primary purpose of fostering democracy.

  Lappin 10 (Richard, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade, “What we talk about when we talk about Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,” Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, Vol 4, Issue 1, 2010)

  Such fastidiousness …. be drawn.

  B. Violation – only police affs targeted at democracy building are topical. We have an exclusive definition.

  Carothers, 1993 (Thomas, In the Name of Democracy, p. 215)

  ICITAP ….operational capabilities.

   

  Dip Cap

  Diplomatic capital in the next few days will be crucial to swing Palestine away from UN statehood.

  Rogin, 9/16/2011 (Josh, Team obama pushes new Quartet statement to avoid Palestinian U.N. bid, Foreign Policy, p. http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/16/team_obama_pushes_new_quartet_statement_to_avoid_palestinian_un_bid)

  The Obama administration …. key part of the diplomacy.

  The plan kills diplomatic capital.

  Anderson and Grewell, 2000 (Terry – director of the Property and Environment Research Center and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, and J. Bishop – former research associate at PERC, The Greening of Foreign Policy, PERC Policy Series, p. 17)

  Greater international environmental …. to foreign economies.”

  UN statehood creates a spiral of separatism.

  Rubin, 9/11/2011 (Michael - resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, The UN’s Palestinian Precedent, Commentary, p. http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/09/11/un-palestinian-precedent/)

  Many states will vote … areas and conflict zones.

  Global nuclear war.

  Shehadi 1993 (Kamal, Research Associate – International Institute for Strategic Studies, December, Ethnic Self Determination and the Break Up of States, p. 81)

  This paper has argued … minorities and borders.

   

  Counterplan

   

  Text: The United States Federal Government should propose substantial advisory support to mediate a high level dialogue between the government of Bahrain and proponents of democratic constitutional reform to the United Nations Democracy Fund Advisory Board.  The United States Federal Government should provide all financial and technical assistance for the United Nations Democracy Fund to implement the proposal.

   

  Competes –

  Tests ‘Its’ which is possessive

  English Grammar, 5 (Glossary of English Grammar Terms, )

  Mine, yours, his, hers, its, ours, theirs are the possessive  used to substitute a and to show possession or ownership. EG. This is your disk and that's mine. (Mine substitutes the word disk and shows that it belongs to me.)

  Counterplans that test the resolution are key to predictable ground

   

  Solves -

  US democracy assistance through the UNDEF solves – comparatively more credible

  Piccone, 9 (Theodore J., senior fellow and deputy director for Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution and an adviser to the Club of Madrid, “Enhance Democracy Assistance in the Americas through Multilateral Action”, The Brookings Institute, April 13, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/reports/2009/0413_summit_americas/0413_summit_americas_piccone.pdf)

  The United States seriously …citizens on priority  projects.

   

  Avoids politics

  McInerney, 10 (Stephen, Director of Advocacy for the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), He has extensive  experience in the Middle East and North Africa, including  graduate studies of Middle Eastern politics, history, and  the Arabic language at the American University of Beirut  and the American University in Cairo.  He has spoken on  Middle East affairs with numerous media outlets including MSNBC and CBS News. “The President’s Budget Request for Fiscal Year 2011: Democracy, Governance, and Human Rights in the Middle East”, POMED, April, http://www.pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/fy11-budget-analysis-final.pdf)

   

  The U.S. has long … under this budget heading.

  The Net benefit is credibility –

  Counterplan is vital to UN credibility – reversing US false multilateralism is key to prevent it from becoming an irrelevant institution

  Deen, 10 (Thalif, “U.N. Faces Threat of Irrelevancy Amid Big Power Politics”, Inter Press Service (IPS), September 28, http://www.galdu.org/web/index.php?odas=4772&giella1=eng)

   

  Judging by remarks on ….false multilateralism, Bennis declared.

   

  US engagement with the UN is key to effective multilateralism, preventing terrorism, Iran and North Korean proliferation and stabilizes Afghanistan, Iraq and multiple peacekeeping conflicts

  Brimmer, 11 (Esther - Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Organization Affairs, Revitalizing the United Nations and Multilateral Cooperation, 2/1, p. http://www.state.gov/p/io/rm/2011/155854.htm)

   

  So our discussion today …. contributions by other states.

   

  Only multilateral cooperation prevents great power wars that make extinction inevitable

  Dyer, 4 (Gwynne, former senior lecturer in war studies at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, 12/30/2004, The End of War, The Toronto Star, p. lexis)

   

  The "firebreak" … and everybody loses.

   

   

  Kritik

   

  The 1AC relies on an orientalist conception of Yemeni society that cements authoritarianism and paves the way for global violence

  Blumi 11 (Isa, Assistant Professor – Georgia State University’s History Department and Middle East Institute, Chaos in Yemen:  Societal Collapse and the New Authoritarianism, Routledge Advances in Middle East and Islamic Studies, p. 155-157)

  It may be useful to…Pakistan and Afghanistan.

   

  Disorder and insecurity are inevitable – the drive to eliminate difference causes global destruction

  Der Derian 98 (James, Professor of Political Science – University of Massachusetts, On Security, Ed. Lipschutz, p. 24-25)

   

  No other concept …into a fearful sameness.

   

  Vote Neg to reject their representations of Yemen. This critical praxis is a prerequisite to effective policy solutions

  Blumi 11 (Isa, Assistant Professor – Georgia State University’s History Department and Middle East Institute, Chaos in Yemen:  Societal Collapse and the New Authoritarianism, Routledge Advances in Middle East and Islamic Studies, p.  39-40)

   

  By strategically calling …. period following 9/11.

   

  Specifically turns multilat – militarist response to Yemen turns cooperation

  Boyle and Scrnid, 9 (Michael and Alex, “A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime,” Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the New Ideas Fund, http://www.newideasfund.org/proposals/NIF_Global%20Compact.pdf)

   

  The war on … September 11. 

   

  --Only voting neg solves – orientalist conceptions of Yemenis are the root cause of authoritarianism and makes their violent extermination inevitable.  Voting neg is an ethical imperative.

  Blumi 11 (Isa, Assistant Professor – Georgia State University’s History Department and Middle East Institute, Chaos in Yemen:  Societal Collapse and the New Authoritarianism, Routledge Advances in Middle East and Islamic Studies, p. 152-153)

  The interesting union ….agent of history's action.

   

  
  

   

   

  --Causes serial policy failure – makes aff solvency impossible

  Blumi 11 (Isa, Assistant Professor – Georgia State University’s History Department and Middle East Institute, Chaos in Yemen:  Societal Collapse and the New Authoritarianism, Routledge Advances in Middle East and Islamic Studies, p.  9)

   

  The final reason this … recent Yemen's recent history.

   

  --Their truth claims are false – “expert” analysis relies on a reductionist epistemology that inaccurately describes Yemen

  Blumi 11 (Isa, Assistant Professor – Georgia State University’s History Department and Middle East Institute, Chaos in Yemen:  Societal Collapse and the New Authoritarianism, Routledge Advances in Middle East and Islamic Studies, p.  17-19)

  By all accounts… the analysis on Yemen today.

   

   

  Reject their demand for a neat, simple alternative – it’s methodologically suspect

  Bruce 96 (Robert, Associate Professor in Social Science – Curtin University and Graeme Cheeseman, Senior Lecturer – University of New South Wales, Discourses of Danger and Dread Frontiers, p. 5-9)

  This goal … understand them, and why?

   

  Critical intellectualism creates change – answers all of their “alt fails” args

  Jones 99 (Richard Wyn, Professor of International Relations – Aberystwyth University, Security, Strategy, and Critical Theory, p. 155-163)

  The central political … to critical security studies.

   

  --Constructions of Al Qaeda as the threatening Other causes violent extermination and makes their impacts inevitable

  Blumi 11 (Isa, Assistant Professor – Georgia State University’s History Department and Middle East Institute, Chaos in Yemen:  Societal Collapse and the New Authoritarianism, Routledge Advances in Middle East and Islamic Studies, p.  13-14)

  Scholars have long … is ultimately counter-productive.

   

  Mo

  Blumi 11 (Isa, Assistant Professor – Georgia State University’s History Department and Middle East Institute, Chaos in Yemen:  Societal Collapse and the New Authoritarianism, Routledge Advances in Middle East and Islamic Studies, p.  33-34)

  In this volatile … World War era.

   

  Representations and epistemology must come first – prioritizing short-term policy choices causes serial policy failure towards Yemen.  Critical praxis is a pre-requisite to effective policy-making and solves the root cause of violence

  Blumi 11 (Isa, Assistant Professor – Georgia State University’s History Department and Middle East Institute, Chaos in Yemen:  Societal Collapse and the New Authoritarianism, Routledge Advances in Middle East and Islamic Studies, p.  3-6)

  This book argues … necessary to remain in power.

   

  Form and content are indistinguishable. Plan can’t be divorced from its justifications.

  Hill 91 (Thomas E. Jr., Professor of Philosophy – University of North Carolina, “The Message of Affirmative Action”, The Affirmative Action Debate (1995), Ed. Cahn, p. 169-170)

  Actions, as the … likely to be received.

   

   

  --Perm fails – can’t overcome links to the Aff

  Burke 7 (Anthony, Senior Lecturer – School of Politics and Professor of International Relations – University of New South Wales, Beyond Security, Ethics and Violence, p. 3-4)

  These frameworks are interrogated …t systematically wards off critique.

   

  
  

   

  --Linkage with security

  Wilkins 10 (Karin – Prof. at University of Austin – Texas, Associate Director at Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Ph.D. – Univ. of Pennsylvania, “Considering “Traditional Society” in the Middle East: Learning Lerner All Over Again”, 2010, Journal of Middle East Media, http://www2.gsu.edu/~wwwaus/LernerWilkins.pdf)

  Not all of …., the cost of NOT giving over hearts and minds may well lie in the losing of bodies.

   

  --Assumption of Western hegemony

  Blumi 11 (Isa, Assistant Professor – Georgia State University’s History Department and Middle East Institute, Chaos in Yemen:  Societal Collapse and the New Authoritarianism, Routledge Advances in Middle East and Islamic Studies, p.  15-16)

  A reorientation … of indigenous realities.

   

  AQAP (Wake LQ)

   

  Status quo solves – cooperation is high, especially on Al Qaeda targets

  LA Times 11 (“Yemen aids in terror fight,” 9-15, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/sep/15/world/la-fg-yemen-intel-20110915)

  The embattled regime … the group could fragment."

   

  Police training fails and empowers AQAP

  Cilluffo 11 (Frank J., Director – Homeland Security Policy Institute at GWU, and Clinton Watts, principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at HSPI, “Yemen And Al Qaeda In The Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting A Window Of Counterterrorism Opportunity,” HSPI, Issue Brief 11, 6-24, http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief_yemenaqap.pdf)

   

  The U.S. must act to counter …. U.S. counterterrorism funding.

   

  No impact to AQAP – getting crushed now

  Dozier 11 (Kimberley, Forbes Magazine, “US counterterror chief: Al-Qaida now on the ropes,” 9-1, http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2011/09/01/general-us-us-counterterrorism-adviser_8654268.html)

  On a steady slide…. matters of intelligence.

   

  Alt cause – AQIM

  Leigh 9-12 (Karen Leigh “North Africa's Sahel: The Next Terrorism Hot Spot?” http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2092687,00.html)

  With a gigantic cache ….the desert, Gaddafi himself.

   

  -- No retaliation

  Davis and Jenkins 2 (Paul K., Professor – RAND Corporation and Research Leader – Naval Studies Board, and Brian M., Special Advisor – RAND Corporation and International Chamber of Commerce, RAND Research Paper,

  http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1619/MR1619.pdf)

   

  Deterring acquisition …. as very dangerous.

   

  No nuclear terrorism –

   

  --Acquisition impossible

  Krepon 9 (Michael, Co-Founder – Henry L. Stimson Center and Diplomat Scholar – University of Virginia, “The Mushroom Cloud That Wasn’t”, Foreign Affairs, May / June, Lexis)

   

  At the height of … than ever before.

   

  --No motive

  Maerli 00 (Morten Bremer, Science Program Fellow in the Center for International Security and Cooperation – Stanford University, “Relearning the ABCs: Terrorists and “Weapons of Mass Destruction”, The Nonproliferation Review, Summer)

   

  Furthermore, a group’s interest …es would be less appealing.

   

  
  

  Hegemony

   

  Overstretch now – empirically denied

  Heg doesn’t prevent conflict

   

  Crawford 3 (Timothy W., Professor of Political Science – Boston College, Pivotal Deterrence: Third-Party Statecraft and the Pursuit of Peace, p. 209-210)

   

  Forward Engagement, Global Leadership, … as it knits back together.

   

  Historically true

  Layne 97 (Christopher, Visiting Professor – Naval Postgraduate School, From Preponderance to Offshore Balancing)

  Two critical objections …. involvement in future wars.

   

  -- Internal conflicts drive wars – heg can’t solve

  Conry 97 (Barbara, Foreign Policy Analyst – Cato, Policy Analysis No. 267, 2-5, “U.S. ‘Global Leadership’: A Euphemism for World Policeman,” http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-267.html)

   

  Other proponents of U.S. political ….. did in Somalia and Bosnia. [59]

   

  -- Heg is resilient

  Wohlforth 7 (William, Professor of Government – Dartmouth College, “Unipolar Stability”, Harvard International Review, Spring, http://hir.harvard.edu/articles/1611/3/)

  US military forces …. potentially large wellsprings of latent power.

   

  -- Isolationism inevitable – social welfare

  Mandelbaum 5 (Michael, Professor in the School of Advanced International Studies – Johns Hopkins University, “The Case for Goliath: How America Acts as the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 184-186)

  The huge bill …. obligations to its own citizens.

   

   

  Status quo solves via Saudi cooperation – only a risk the plan emboldens AQAP

  Cilluffo 11 (Frank J., Director – Homeland Security Policy Institute at GWU, and Clinton Watts, principal consultant at PA Consulting Group and a Senior Fellow at HSPI, “Yemen And Al Qaeda In The Arabian Peninsula: Exploiting A Window Of Counterterrorism Opportunity,” HSPI, Issue Brief 11, 6-24, http://www.gwumc.edu/hspi/policy/issuebrief_yemenaqap.pdf)

   

  Yemen’s current situation ….alliances hindering long-run options in Yemen.

   

  Even if they boost counter-terrorism cooperation, it’s unsustainable and fails

  Katz 11 (Mark N., Senior Fellow, “Yemen and the “War on Terror”,” Middle East Policy Council, 1-11, http://www.mepc.org/articles-commentary/commentary/yemen-and-war-terror)

   

  Yemen has witnessed …. sympathetic toward al-Qaeda.

   

  Empirically proven

  Byman 11 (Daniel L., Director of Research – Saban Center for Middle East Policy, “What’s Next for Yemen?” 3-22, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0322_yemen_byman.aspx)

   

  Washington has … and other domestic enemies.

   

  Suez Canal

   

  AC – There sterne evidence says Egypt will do it

  No impact

  Gentile 11 (Gary, writer – Platts, “Closure of Suez Canal would have minimal impact on US: EIA” http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Oil/6821601)

   

  A total closure of the Suez … in his prepared testimony.

   

  -- Economic decline doesn’t cause war

   

  Miller 00 (Morris, Economist, Adjunct Professor in the Faculty of Administration – University of Ottawa, Former Executive Director and Senior Economist – World Bank, “Poverty as a Cause of Wars?”, Interdisciplinary Science Reviews, Winter, p. 273)

   

  The question may be ….. to abort another).

  Modeling

   

  They don’t solve counter-terror unilateralism – plan does nothing to end US drone strikes and other policies

   

  Counter-terror coop doesn’t spillover – it’s issue-specific

  Mendelsohn 10 (Barak, assistant professor of political science at Haverford College and a senior fellow of Foreign Policy Research Institute, “The Question of International Cooperation in the War on Terrorism,” June, http://www.fpri.org/enotes/201006.mendelsohn.cooperationwarterror.html)

   

  International cooperation …. seen to be legitimate and the means of achieving these goals are viewed as acceptable.

   

  Alt causes to modeling – their author

  Boyle and Scrnid, 9 (Michael and Alex, “A Global Compact for Counter-Terrorism: Towards a Robust Multilateral Counter-Terrorism Regime,” Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, University of St. Andrews Sponsored by the New Ideas Fund, http://www.newideasfund.org/proposals/NIF_Global%20Compact.pdf)

   

  What Needs to Change

  The Bush approach has …. the founation for a Global Compact.

  Aid causes backlash – turns case

  Hill 8 (Ginny, Freelance Journalist, “Yemen: Fear of Failure,” Middle East Programme, Chatham House, November, http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Middle%20East/bp1108yemen.pdf)

   

  Options for Western governments …. affairs in Sanaa.

  
  

  India/Pakistan War

   

  -- No India/Pakistan war –

   

  A) Deterrence

   

  Tellis 2 (Ashley, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Orbis, Winter, p. 24-5)

  In the final analysis, … South Asian region.

   

  B) Economics

  Tellis 2 (Ashley, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Orbis, Winter, p. 19)

  In any event, the saving …. Asian competitors and the United States.

   

  C) Indian no-first-use and regional CBMs

  Malik 3 (Mohan, The Stability Of Nuclear Deterrence In South Asia, Asian Affairs, Fall)

  Regarding the …. of sensitive items.27

   

  D) Fallout blow-back

  Cohen 2 (Stephen, Senior Fellow @ Brookings, Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear War in South Asia: An Unknowable Future, May, http://www.brook.edu/views/speeches/cohens20020501.pdf)

  There will be little likelihood … enhancing self-deterrence.

   

  -- No extinction – impact is local

  Dyer 2 (Gwynne, Ph.D. in War Studies – University of London and Board of Governors – Canada’s Royal Military College, “Nuclear War a Possibility Over Kashmir”, Hamilton Spectator, 5-24, Lexis)

  For those who do … are mostly still here.

   

  -- War inevitable – accidents

  Mian 2 (Zia, Pakistani Physicist – Princeton University, R. Rajaraman, Professor of Physics – Jawaharlal Nehru University and Frank von Hippel, Professor of Public and International Affairs – Princeton University, Washington Post, 8-6, Lexis)

  Although the … is only about 10 minutes.

  --Public won’t over-react to terrorism

  Jenkins-Smith 4 (Hank C., Ph.D., Professor of Government – Texas A&M University, and Kerry G. Herron, Ph.D., Research Scientist – Texas A&M University, Fall)

   

  Our final contrasting set of expectations … over the following year.

   

  -- U.S. won’t use nuclear weapons

  Spring 1 (Baker, Research Fellow – Heritage Foundation, 9-20, http://www.heritage.org/Research/MissileDefense/BG1477.cfm)

   

  Nuclear retaliation is …resort to defensive options.

   

  -- No targets and can’t trace weapons

  Dowle 5 (Marke, Graduate School of Journalism – University of California, Berkeley, California Monthly, September, http://www.alumni.berkeley.edu/Alumni/Cal_Monthly/September_2005/COVER_STORY-_Berkeleys_Big_Bang_Project_.asp)

   

  Because terrorists …. had been stolen.

   

  --Bombs would have minimal damage

  Mueller and Mueller 99 (John, Professor of Political Science – University of Rochester, and Karl, Assistant Professor of Comparative Military Studies – School of Advanced Airpower Studies, “Sanctions of Mass Destruction”, Foreign Affairs, May / June, Lexis)

   

  Nuclear weapons clearly …. threaten the end of civilization.

  
  
• 
  
  

Egypt Political Party Neg

• Tournament: Kentucky | Round: Dubzzz | Opponent: Cal GW | Judge: Harddog, Nate Cohn, Baroche
  
  

• 
  

  
  

• Politics – 1NC

  SKFTA will pass – highly likely.
  Dong-A Ilbo, 9/26/2011 (US to submit bill to ratify FTA with Korea early next month, p. http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?bicode=060000&biid=2011092668408)
  The U.S. is expected to
  AND
  Korean President Lee Myung-bak in Washington.

  The plan causes a massive congressional backlash
  The Washington Post, 9/24/2011 (Obama faces hurdles in aiding Arab Spring countries, p. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-faces-hurdles-in-aiding-arab-spring-countries/2011/09/22/gIQAEqcOuK_story.html)
  In his U.N. speech this
  AND
  is rushing to offer all sorts of incentives.”

  PC is key
  Palmer 9/2 (Doug, Reuters Reporter, " Analysis: Obama's trade legacy in a crucible this fall," 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902)

  After a slow start that has frustrated U
  AND
  fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. 

  Deal deters North Korean aggression
  Gerwin 10 (Edward F., Senior Fellow for Trade and Global Economic Policy – Third Way, “5 Reasons America Needs Korea Free Trade Deal”, Wall Street Journal, 12-16, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/12/16/guest-contribution-5-reasons-america-needs-korea-free-trade-deal/)

  5. China is Not a Fan.
  AND
  China and others in this vital Asian market.
  So, while Fords and fillets are certainly important, the Korea FTA also includes other “beefy” benefits for American trade.

  Korea war turns every impact and causes extinction
  Hayes and Green 10 (Peter, Professor of International Relations – Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology and Director – Nautilus Institute, and Michael Hamel, Victoria University, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, Nautilus Institute Special Report, 1-5, http://www.nautil us.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf)

  At worst, there is the possibility of
  AND
  that warrants priority consideration from the international community.

  T – 1NC

  1. ‘Increase’ refers to a process, not an outcome - the plan itself must increase democracy assistance - it cannot simply lead to it
     HEFC 4 (Higher Education Funding Council, http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/jt200304/jtselect/jtchar/1 67/167we98.htm# n43)

  9.1 The Draft Bill creates an
  AND
  could be considered to be ever-increasing.

  2. 'Substantial' means that the increase must be definite - potential future increases are not topical
  Words and Phrases 64 (40W&P 759)

  The words" outward, open, actual
  AND 

  undivided; sole; opposed to inclusive.

  3. ‘Democracy Assistance’ is transfer of material
  Lappin 10 (Richard, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade, “What we talk about when we talk about Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,” Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, Vol 4, Issue 1, 2010)

  Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as
  AND
  society groups, media groups and political parties.  

  Military Backlash 1NC

  Military control is at a breaking point – any perceived loss of power causes lashout
  Allen 11 (Michael, Editor of Democracy Digest, “Egypt’s democrats divided over military’s role and continuing protests,” Democracy Digest, 7-25, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/07/egypts-democrats-divided-over-militarys-role-and-continuing-protests/)

  Egypt’s government today pledged to purge senior officials
  AND
  other institution would always do a better job. 

  Democracy aid causes military freak out
  Richter and Fleishman 11 (Paul, reporter in Washington, and Jeffrey, reporter in Cairo,  “U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way,” LA Times, 8-10, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811)

  Six months after pro-democracy protesters ousted
  AND
  the total $165 million has been distributed. 

  The military will bash Israel – escalates to war
  Zahran 11 (Mudar, Palestinian writer, “Egypt's Military Council Toying with Israel,” Hudson Institute, 9-9, http://www.hudson-ny.org/2410/egypt-military-council-israel)

  While the Egyptian revolution was still boiling,
  AND
  million-man-protests for this cause. 

  Extinction
  Morgan 9 (Dennis Ray, Professor of Current Affairs – Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, South Korea, “World on Fire: Two Scenarios of the Destruction of Human Civilization and Possible Extinction of the Human Race”, Futures, 41(1), p. 685)

  In a remarkable website on nuclear war,
  AND
  upon the environment and fragile ecosphere as well. 

  UN CP

  Text: The United States Executive should propose making political party support available for the Egyptian Freedom and Justice Party to the United Nations Democracy Fund Advisory Board.  The United States Federal Government should provide all financial and technical assistance for the United Nations Democracy Fund to implement the proposal.   

  Competes –
  Tests ‘Its’ which is possessive
  English Grammar, 5 (Glossary of English Grammar Terms, http://www.usingenglish.com/glossary/possessive-pronoun.html)
  Mine, yours, his, hers,
  AND
  disk and shows that it belongs to me.)

  Counterplans that test the resolution are key to predictable ground

  Solves -
  US democracy assistance through the UNDEF solves – comparatively more credible
  Piccone, 9 (Theodore J., senior fellow and deputy director for Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution and an adviser to the Club of Madrid, “Enhance Democracy Assistance in the Americas through Multilateral Action”, The Brookings Institute, April 13, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/reports/2009/0413_summit_americas/0413_summit_americas_piccone.pdf)

  Internationalize democracy assistance.
  The United States seriously needs to ramp up
  AND
  requires consultation with its citizens on priority  projects.
  Avoids politics
  McInerney, 10 (Stephen, Director of Advocacy for the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), He has extensive  experience in the Middle East and North Africa, including  graduate studies of Middle Eastern politics, history, and  the Arabic language at the American University of Beirut  and the American University in Cairo.  He has spoken on  Middle East affairs with numerous media outlets including MSNBC and CBS News. “The President’s Budget Request for Fiscal Year 2011: Democracy, Governance, and Human Rights in the Middle East”, POMED, April, http://www.pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/fy11-budget-analysis-final.pdf)

  The U.S. has long been
  AND
  the many organizations funded under this budget heading.

  Counterplan is vital to UN credibility
  Deen, 10 (Thalif, “U.N. Faces Threat of Irrelevancy Amid Big Power Politics”, Inter Press Service (IPS), September 28, http://www.galdu.org/web/index.php?odas=4772&giella1=eng)

  Judging by remarks on opening day, there
  AND
  S.-controlled false multilateralism, Bennis declared.

  US engagement with the UN is key to effective multilateralism – solves prolif and every impact
  Brimmer, 11 (Esther - Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Organization Affairs, Revitalizing the United Nations and Multilateral Cooperation, 2/1, p. http://www.state.gov/p/io/rm/2011/155854.htm)

  So our discussion today is a perfect opportunity
  AND
  leadership can leverage important contributions by other states.

  Global nuclear war
  Utgoff 2 (Victor A., Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analysis, Survival Vol 44 No 2 Proliferation, Missile Defence and American Ambitions, p. 87-90)

  In sum, widespread proliferation is likely to
  AND
  bodies of dead cities or even whole nations.

  Dialogue CP

  The United States Federal Government should eliminate political party support, without religious-based restriction, for political organizations in Egypt. The United States Federal Government should issue a statement of support for a democratic, tolerant, and pluralist Egypt that is inclusive of all political organizations in Egypt without religious-based restrictions.
  The CP solves a moderate transition. The plan does not change the outcome of the election and results in backlash.
  Cook 11 (Steven, Senior Fellow in ME Affairs @ Council on Foreign Relations, "The U.S.-Egyptian Breakup," http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67347/steven-a-cook/the-us-egyptian-breakup?page=show)
  No Egyptian leader will make Mubarak's mistake again
  AND
  left off when the Free Officers took over. 

  MB – 1NC

  High level engagement with the Muslim Brotherhood now.
  Reuters, 10/2/2011 (U.S. met with Egypt Islamist  U.S. diplomat, p. http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/10/02/idINIndia-59662020111002)
  U.S. officials met members of
  AND
  past we had seen parliamentarians," he said.

  Aid causes public backlash – NGOs will reject it
  Strasser 11 (Max, editorial researcher – Foreign Policy, “Egypt warns of foreign meddling as US pushes on with democracy programs,” 5-7, http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/474767)

  As Egypt prepares for its first free and
  AND
  do tell them everything,” the official said. 

  Muslim Brotherhood isn’t a threat – they accept democratic peace and moderation is inevitable due to political calculation
  Peterson 10/3 (Sabrina, Don’t fear the Muslim Brotherhood, International Affairs Review, p. http://www.iar-gwu.org/node/349)

  Unless the army postpones elections, it looks
  AND
  -Western sentiment aside in favor of pragmatism.

  Israel/Hamas war doesn’t escalate – both sides know losses would be too great
  Karon, 11 (Tony, Senior Editor for Time Magazine, “Why a New Gaza War is Possible, But Unlikely”, March 24, Time, http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/03/24/why-a-new-gaza-war-is-possible-but-unlikely/#ixzz1Zga3NeeB)

  In a conflict that has raged for 63
  AND
  in the south over the last two years".
  It’s empirically denied – they attacked an Israeli warship in 2006 and it didn’t trigger Middle East escalation
  Hamas knows they’d lose – wouldn’t initiate attacks
  Mitnick, 11 (Joshua, “Why Israel is wary of getting into another Gaza war”, Christian Science Monitor,  http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0324/Why-Israel-is-wary-of-getting-into-another-Gaza-war/(page)/2)

  Though Palestinians blame Israel for the civilian deaths
  AND
  are eager to have peace with our neighbors."

  No Israel/Hezbollah war – popular pressure to avoid confrontation
  Keinon, 11 (Herb, “Eiland: Hezbollah conflict unlikely in 'foreseeable future'”, June 20, Jerusalem Post, http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?ID=225851&R=R1)

  The unlikelihood of another armed confrontation between Israel
  AND
  Israel in the foreseeable future,” he said.
  War inevitable due to accidental miscalculation – their author
  Saab, 11 (Bilal Y., Visiting Fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, the Monterey Institute of International Studies, and Nicholas Blanford, Beirut correspondent for The Christian Science Monitor and The Times of London, “The Next War: How Another Conflict Between Hizballah and Israel Could Look and How Both Sides Are Preparing For It”, The Brookings Institution, August, http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2011/08_hizballah_israel.aspx)

  Given that an accidental trigger is the most
  AND
  that cannot wait for the next tripartite session.
  No war – neither side wants to be involved
  The National Interest, 2011 (“Hezbollah’s Power Play”, January 13, sadat.umd.edu/Hezbollah.doc)

  Neither Israel nor Hezbollah appear interested in an
  AND
  better position to deal with what might  come. 

   Middle East conflict won’t escalate – leaders won’t get involved
  Maloney 7 (Suzanne, Senior Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Steve Cook, Fellow – Council on Foreign Relations, and Ray Takeyh, Fellow – Council for Foreign Relations, “Why the Iraq War Won’t Engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune, 6-28, http://www.brookings.edu/views/op-ed/maloney20070629.htm)

  Yet, the Saudis, Iranians, Jordanians
  AND
  in Lebanon was regarded as someone else's fight.

  Indonesia – 1NC

  Veto kills Muslim relations.
  Al-Faisal, 9/12/2011 (Prince Turki - former director of Saudi Arabia’s intelligence services, Veto a State, Lose an Ally, New York Times, p. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/12/opinion/veto-a-state-lose-an-ally.html)
  American support for Palestinian statehood is therefore crucial
  AND
  States chooses the path of justice and peace.

  Single instances of action do not change international perceptions of the United States.
  Fettweis, Winter 2007/2008 (Christopher – professor of political science at Tulane, Credibility and the War on Terror, Political Science Quarterly, p.
  Since Vietnam, scholars have been generally unable
  AND
  it was, it almost inevitably failed.40 

  Indonesian terrorists aren’t a threat – resort to politics
  VOA News 11 (Brian Padden, “Islamists Turn from Terrorism to Politics in Indonesia”, 3/8, http://waronterrornews.typepad.com/home/2011/03/islamists-turn-from-terrorism-to-politics-in-indonesia.html)

  In Indonesia security analysts say there is a
  AND
  Defenders Front that do not overtly espouse violence. 

  Alt causality – Indonesian corruption
  Coates 10 (Stephen – AFP, “Corruption Fueling Terrorism in Indonesia: Think Tank”, 4/25, http://www.indonesiamedia.com/2010/04/25/corruption-fuelling-terrorism-in-indonesia-think-tank/)

  JAKARTA — Indonesia has succeeded in dismantling a
  AND
  should be complacent that the job is over.”

   Multiple barriers to Asian war
  Berry 1 (Dr. Nicholas, Senior Analyst – CDI, “The Security Environment in Asia”, Defense Monitor – Center for Defense Information, 4, May, http://www.cdi.org/dm/2001/issue4/asiansecurity.html)

  The Asian security environment is not organized for
  AND
  the capacity to be the inhibitor of war. 

  
  
  

ME Demo Bad

• Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 2 | Opponent: Emory | Judge: Cat
  
  

• Turn – emerging democracies result in transition wars

  Kaplan, 6/3/2011 (Fred, Arab Summer, Slate Magazine, p. http://www.slate.com/id/2296046/pagenum/all/#p2)

  Revolutions tend to be messy and protracted,

  AND

  of Pennsylvania and Jack Snyder of Columbia University.

  Turn – Econ

  A. Middle East democracy results in economic collapse

  --Euro switch --Boycotts --Investments –Suez Canal/Oil

  Kaahin, 2/5/2011 (Dalmar, Democracy in Arab World-Far More Dangerous to U.S. than 9/11 Terror Attacks, Somaliland Press, p. http://somalilandpress.com/opdemocracy-in-arab-world%E2%80%94far-more-dangerous-to-u-s-than-911-terror-attacks-19975)

  As the iron curtain collapsed in 1989 and

  AND

  worse than September 11, 2001 horrific attacks.

  B. Nuclear war

  Walter Russell Mead, NPQ's Board of Advisors, New Perspectives Quarterly, Summer 1992, p.30

  What if the global economy stagnates-or

  AND

  than Germany and Japan did in the '30s.

  A. Democracy kills hegemony – undermines regional presence.

  Street, 3/5/2011 (Paul - former visiting professor of United States History at Northern Illinois University, How Much Arab Democracy Can American Stand?, http://www.paulstreet.org/?p=330)

  However much hatred it has  evoked in the

  AND

  , undermining fundamental principles of global dominance.”5

  B. Nuclear war.

  Khalilzad 1995 (Zalmay, RAND Corporation, Losing The Moment? Washington Quarterly, Vol 18, No 2, p. 84)

  Under the third option, the United States

  AND

  bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system.

  
  
• 
  
  

Wake Round Reports

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• 1NC

  Framework

  T-Democracy Assistance

  Politics- Payroll tax- econ, mead 92

  Egypt CP- NB-SCAF backlash- Israel-Egypt War

  DA CP- pic out of democracy assistance- term "cooperation" solves best

  Gift K

  2NC: Gift K, Word PIC

  1NR: case, T- direct democracy asst

  2NR: Gift K

  Decision: Win- Joe Koehle

  1NC

  Framework

  A. Interpretation --- the ballot’s sole purpose is to answer the resolutional question: Is the outcome of the enactment of a topical plan better than the status quo or a competitive policy option?

  Definitional support ---

   

  1. “Resolved” before a colon reflects a legislative forum

  Army Officer School 4 (5-12, “# 12, Punctuation – The Colon and Semicolon”, http://usawocc.army.mil/IMI/wg12.htm)

   

  The colon introduces the following: …this council petition the mayor.

   

  2. “United States Federal Government should” means the debate is solely about the outcome of a policy established by governmental means

  Ericson 3 (Jon M., Dean Emeritus of the College of Liberal Arts – California Polytechnic U., et al., The Debater’s Guide, Third Edition, p. 4)

  The Proposition of Policy: Urging …action that you propose.

   

  B. Violation --- they claim advantages that are independent of the plan

   

  C. Reasons to prefer:

   

  1. Predictable limits --- the grammar of the resolution is based upon enacting a policy. They justify arbitrarily changing the question of the debate to an infinite number of potential frameworks, ensuring the Aff always wins. Grammar is the only predictable basis for determining meaning; it’s the foundation for how words interact. Ignoring it justifies changing the focus of the debate, mooting the resolution altogether.

  2. Ground --- advantages that aren’t linked to the outcome of the plan are impossible to negate. They can claim “critical” arguments outweigh disads linked to the plan or shift their advocacy to avoid impact-turns.

  3. Plan-focus --- critical frameworks change the role of the ballot from a yes / no question about the desirability of the plan to something else. This undermines the singular logical purpose of debate: the search for the best policy. Logical policymaking is the biggest educational impact --- any other learning is worthless because it can’t be applied to the real world.

   

  D. Topicality is a voting issue for fairness and outweighs all other issues because without it, debate is impossible

  Shively 00 (Ruth Lessl, Assistant Prof Political Science – Texas A&M U., Partisan Politics and Political Theory, p. 181-182)

  The requirements given thus …some basic agreement or harmony.

   

  T- direct democracy assistance

  A. Interpretation –Democracy Assistance is the transfer of funds

  Lappin 10 (Richard, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade, “What we talk about when we talk about Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,” Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, Vol 4, Issue 1, 2010)

  Democracy assistance can be most …civil society groups, media groups and political parties. 

  ‘Increase’ refers to a process, not an outcome --- the plan itself must mandate an increase

  HEFC 4 (Higher Education Funding Council, 67/167we98.htm# n43)

  9.1 The Draft Bill creates an obligation on …could be considered to be ever-increasing.

   

  B. Vote Neg –

  --Predictable limits – increased funding is a core mechanism that sets a functional limit on the topic – there are an infinite number of ways to lead to an increase.

  --Topic Education – increased funding is at the core of the topic – doing things that lead to an increase diverts attention away from that

   

  Politics-Payroll Tax

  Obama is making a major push for payroll – capital will get it through.

  Stein, 11/10/2011 (Sam, On Payroll Tax Cut, Obama Administration Plotting Year-End Showdown, The Huffington Post, p. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/10/payroll-tax-cut-obama-administration-year-end-showdown_n_1086761.html)

  Top officials in the Obama …on Capitol Hill have largely agreed.

  Plan costs capital – massively unpopular.

  Richter, 11 (4/12/2011, Paul LA Times, “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition; U.S. lawmakers not only have shut the door on new spending to stabilize countries rocked by the so-called Arab Spring. They have resisted proposals to shift money from other foreign aid programs,” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)

  The Obama administration's efforts to …has been linked since the early 1980s.

  Payroll tax cuts prevents a recession.

  Los Angeles Times, 10/11/2011 (Democrats plan next step for Obama’s jobs package, p. http://articles.latimes.com/2011/oct/11/nation/la-na-senate-jobs-20111012)

  The payroll tax break would provide …going back into recession."

  Nuclear war.

  Walter Russell Mead, NPQ's Board of Advisors, New Perspectives Quarterly, Summer 1992, p.30

  What if the global economy …Germany and Japan did in the '30s.

   

  Egypt CP –

  We advocate democracy assistance for Libya, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen, and Bahrain through an analysis of governmentality.

  Military control is at a breaking point – any perceived loss of power causes lashout

  Allen 11 (Michael, Editor of Democracy Digest, “Egypt’s democrats divided over military’s role and continuing protests,” Democracy Digest, 7-25, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/07/egypts-democrats-divided-over-militarys-role-and-continuing-protests/)

  Egypt’s government today pledged …would always do a better job.

   

  Democracy aid causes military freak out

  Richter and Fleishman 11 (Paul, reporter in Washington, and Jeffrey, reporter in Cairo,  “U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way,” LA Times, 8-10, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811)

  Six months after pro-democracy …$165 million has been distributed.

   

  The military will bash Israel – escalates to war

  Zahran 11 (Mudar, Palestinian writer, “Egypt's Military Council Toying with Israel,” Hudson Institute, 9-9, http://www.hudson-ny.org/2410/egypt-military-council-israel)

  While the Egyptian revolution was …million-man-protests for this cause.

   

  Extinction

  Morgan 9 (Dennis Ray, Professor of Current Affairs – Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, South Korea, “World on Fire: Two Scenarios of the Destruction of Human Civilization and Possible Extinction of the Human Race”, Futures, 41(1), p. 685)

  In a remarkable website on nuclear war… environment and fragile ecosphere as well.

   

  Word PIC –

  We advocate democratic cooperation for Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen, and Bahrain through an analysis of governmentality.

  Competes and net beneficial –

  --The phrase “democracy assistance” is ideologically loaded – it legitimizes the process of neoliberal exploitation that makes corporate and state control inevitable

  Sussman 6 (Gerald, professor at MIT, The Myths of ‘Democracy Assistance’ U.S. Political Intervention in Post-Soviet Eastern Europe, This essay is a revised, shortened version of my chapter, “The Globalization of Politics: Spinning U.S. ‘Democracy Assistance Programs’” in William Dinan & David Miller, eds., Thinker, Faker, Spinner, Spy: Corporate Spin and the War on Democracy)

  U.S. interventionism, except …and other expressions of neocolonial hegemony.

   

   “Cooperation” solves best

  Tandon 7 (Director of the Southern and Eastern African Trade Information and Negotiations Initiative, SEATINI, Zimbabwe “The Reality of Trade:  The WTO and Developing Countries”)

  Oddly, years after the OECD …WTO to the developing countries.

   

  Gift K –

  Mike and I advocate an analysis of democracy assistance for Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen, and Bahrain through the lens of governmentality.

  Competes and solves – analyzing democracy assistance creates the same effect on neoliberal discourse and systems of oppression.

  Net beneficial – the advocacy of democracy assistance is a false gesture – it’s a form of gift-giving that re-entrenches dominant power relations making global oppression inevitable.

  Arrigo and Williams 00 (Bruce A., professor of criminal justice – the University of North Carolina, and Christopher R., associate professor of criminology – the University of West Georgia, “The (Im)Possibility of Democratic Justice and the “Gift” of the Majority,” California School of Professional Psychology, http://tampabaydebate.s3.amazonaws.com/documents%2FArrigo_and_Williams_-_The_Gift.pdf)

  Derrida's explication of the gift …voracious conceit of the advantaged.

   

  This power relationship makes global violence inevitable

  Eckhardt 90 (William, Lentz Peace Research Laboratory of St. Louis, Journal of Peace Research, February, p. 15-16)

  Modern Western Civilization used war …may depend upon our choice.

   

   

  Case Arguments

  Neoliberalism isn’t the root cause of war

  Roberts and Sparke 3 (Susan, Professor of Geography – University of Kentucky, and Matthew, Professor of Geography – University of Washington, “Neoliberal Geopolitics,” Antipode, 35(5), p. 886-897)

  Barnett’s work is our main example …vital to reflect on the inter-articulations.

  Neoliberalism is inevitable – markets control our thought

  Hudson 99 [Mark, Progressive Librarian, Fall, “Understanding Information Media in the Age of Neoliberalism: The Contributions of Herbert Schiller”]

  Neoliberal ideas are as old …hegemony for our politics, economy and culture.

  Their impacts are empirically denied. Democracy assistance transfers resources instead of extracting them and facilitates self-government instead of domination

  Paris 10 (Roland, Director of the Centre for International Policy Studies and Prf. @ Graduate School of Public and International Affairs @ Ottawa, “Saving Liberal Peacebuilding” Review of Int’l Studies 36 p. 348-350)

  Although there are similarities …echoes of imperialism than others.

  No interventionism impact

  Glen 11 (Patrick J., Adjunct Professor – Georgetown University Law Center, “The ADVANCE Democracy Act and the Future of United States Democracy Promotion Efforts,” Santa Clara Journal of International Law, 9 Santa Clara J. Int'l L. 273, http://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1688&context=facpub&sei-redir=1#search=%22United%20Nations%20foreign%20promotion%20law%22)

  The conflation of democracy promotion …ADVANCE Act need to be  shelved.

   

  No solvency – can’t translate theory into practice

  Chandler 10 (David, Professor of International Relations – University of Westminster, “What Do We Do When We Critique Liberalism?: The Uncritical Critique of ‘Liberal Peace’,” Millennium Conference, 10-17, http://www.davidchandler.org/pdf/papers/Millennium%20Liberal%20Peace.pdf)

  It would seem that at the core …alternative embedded in these approaches.

   

  Can’t solve – don’t affect non-topic countries – neoliberal though is inevitable

  Completely rejecting humanism is self-marginalizing and disables effective coalitional politics – and causes a right fill-in

  Perkin 93 (J. Russell, Professor of English – St. Mary’s College, “Theorizing the Culture Wars”, 3(3), p. Muse)

  My final criticism is that Spanos, …a coalition of liberalism and the left.

  Extinction

  Boggs 97 (Carl, Professor of Political Science – National University, Theory & Society 26, December, p. 773-774)

  The decline of the public …collective interests that had vanished from civil society.75

   

  Ontology not first

  Owen 2 (David, Reader of Political Theory – University of Southampton, “Re-orienting International Relations: On Pragmatism, Pluralism and Practical Reasoning”, Millennium: Journal of International Studies, 31(3), p. 655-657)

  Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR, …a potentially vicious circle arises.

   

  Epistemology must be secondary to the prior question of political practice

  Jarvis 00 (Darryl, Senior Lecturer in International Relations – University of Sydney, International Relations and the Challenge of Postmodernism, p. 128-9)

  More is the pity that such irrational …struggle at marginal places.

   

  Rejecting humanism causes extinction

  Davies 97 (Tony, Professor of English – Birmingham University, Humanism, p. 130-132)

  So there will not after all be, …can that danger be turned aside?

   

  Rejecting calculative thought reproduces it

  Buckley 2 (R. Philip, Professor of Philosophy – University of McGill, , p. 220-221)

  To what does this “opposition” between …characterization of thought as Gelassenheit.

   

  Calculation inevitable – it makes us human

  Battersby 96 (James, Professor of English – Ohio State University, The Inescapability of Humanism, College English, 58(5))

  In the end, then, it seems that …also the truth of those which they reject or deny.

  2NC

  Gift K

  Net benefits outweighs –

  --Magnitude – subjugation and marginalization through gift-giving is the root cause of violence against others and causes more deaths than wars – that’s Eckhardt.

  --Turns their impact – democracy assistance solidifies US power and dominance

  Sussman 6 (Gerald, professor at MIT, The Myths of ‘Democracy Assistance’ U.S. Political Intervention in Post-Soviet Eastern Europe, This essay is a revised, shortened version of my chapter, “The Globalization of Politics: Spinning U.S. ‘Democracy Assistance Programs’” in William Dinan & David Miller, eds., Thinker, Faker, Spinner, Spy: Corporate Spin and the War on Democracy)

   

  Promoted as “democracy building,” electoral …the overall good intentions  of the state.

   

  --Takes out solvency – they create a façade of equality

  Arrigo and Williams 00 (Bruce A., professor of criminal justice – the University of North Carolina, and Christopher R., associate professor of criminology – the University of West Georgia, “The (Im)Possibility of Democratic Justice and the “Gift” of the Majority,” California School of Professional Psychology, http://tampabaydebate.s3.amazonaws.com/documents%2FArrigo_and_Williams_-_The_Gift.pdf)

  The impediments to establishing …plurality, and affirmative postmodern thought.8

   

  --It’s an ethical side constraint that comes before other considerations

  Memmi 99 (professor emeritus of sociology at the University of Paris, Nanterre, Racism p. 165, google books)

  Of course, this is debatable.  There …but the stakes are irresistible.

   

  Perm still links – giving democracy assistance reinforces relationships of dominance and cements subjugation in recipient countries – that’s Arrigo and Williams.

  The gift can’t be re-appropriated – any inclusion of the aff links

  Arrigo and Williams 00 (Bruce A., professor of criminal justice – the University of North Carolina, and Christopher R., associate professor of criminology – the University of West Georgia, “The (Im)Possibility of Democratic Justice and the “Gift” of the Majority,” California School of Professional Psychology, http://tampabaydebate.s3.amazonaws.com/documents%2FArrigo_and_Williams_-_The_Gift.pdf)

  Much of the distinction between …As Caputo (1997) notes, “justice is the welcome given to the other in which I do not . . . have anything up my sleeve” (p. 149).

   

  Democracy assistance reinforces US imperial control – it gives the gift of assistance but it’s just a ruse that demonstrates US power over topic countries.  Gifts necessarily entail power relationships – by giving we show off our authority and sovereignty and implicitly assume a moral superiority that gives us the right to impose our will on others – that’s Arrigo and Williams.

   

  Democracy assistance necessitates unequal relationships

  Newberg  and Carothers 96 (Paula R. and Thomas, senior associates at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, World Policy Journal, "Aiding - And Defining - Democracy", p. 98-99)

  There are many ways that democracy assistance …clearer to Czech political actors than to American donors.

   

  Word PIC

  -- Severance – words change the meaning and outcome of the plan

   

  Language is functional

  UH 4 (University of Hertfordshire School of Combined Studies, “Describing and Analysing Language”, http://www.uefap.com/courses/baecc/sfl/intro.htm)

  The approach taken for this description and analysis is Systemic-Functional Linguistics (SFL). This analytical approach is mainly taken from the work of Michael Halliday, in particular the model of language set out in An Introduction to Functional Grammar (1985, 1994 and Halliday and Matthiessen, 2004), following on from Malinowski (1923), Firth (1957) and Hymes (1967) (Halliday & Hasan, 1985, pp. 5-9).

  Systemic-functional linguistics has …connected oral discourse and written texts.

   

   

  -- Textual competition is best:

  A) Most objective – it allows an easy comparison of the words in the plan and counterplan. This prevents judge intervention which is critical to fairness

  B) Avoids the worst counterplans – delay, consultation, and conditions are all functionally competitive. Textually competition avoids them – key to topic education.

  C) Worst case examples don’t apply – scramble perms have no net-benefit and ban the plan can be competitive if it’s written right.

  Severance is a voter – destroys all neg ground and ignores educational questions about the aff

  1NR

  Case

  -- No link – we don’t assign value to lives – each has intrinsic worth – this magnifies the necessity of rejecting the Aff to avoid mass death

  -- Our specific calculation is good – voting Neg to avoid the DA maximizes lives saved – which is moral and precludes zeroing out anyone

  Dworkin 77 (Ronald, Professor of Law and Philosophy – New York University, Taking Rights Seriously, p. 274-5)

  Utilitarian arguments of policy, …of respect, than any other.

  This maximizes value to life – the opposite of the ZPH

  Winslow 82 (Gerald, Professor of Christian Ethics – Loma Linda University, Triage and Justice, p. 83)

   

  If this method seems cold …the interest of other INDIVIDUALS.’

   

  -- They’re more calculative –

  A) Their advantage claims are based on a series of assessments about probabilities and the costs and benefits of adopting their course of action

  B) Foresight means voting Aff in spite of known negative consequences makes you complicit in the calculated sacrifice of millions for the sake of ethical purity – a worse devaluation of life

   

  -- Evaluate consequences – allowing violence for the sake of moral purity is evil

  Isaac 2 (Jeffrey C., Professor of Political Science – Indiana-Bloomington, Director – Center for the Study of Democracy and Public Life, Ph.D. – Yale, Dissent Magazine, 49(2), “Ends, Means, and Politics”, Spring, Proquest)

  As writers such as Niccolo …it undermines political effectiveness.

   

  -- Governments must weigh consequences

  Harries 94 (Owen, Editor and Founder – National Interest and Senior Fellow – Centre for Independent Studies, “Power and Civilization”, The National Interest, Spring, Lexis)

  Performance is the test. Asked …will always have to be considered.

   

  T- direct democracy assistance

  On this topic limits outweigh aff ground – aff only has to research 1 country vs. 6 and they get multiple unique mechanisms like elections, civil society, dialogue, policy training, and IMET.  Aid now beats most DAs – setting a fair limit is the only way to correct the balance

   

  And limits are key to research and participation

  Rowland 84 (Robert C., Debate Coach – Baylor University, “Topic Selection in Debate”, American Forensics in Perspective, Ed. Parson, p. 53-54)

  The first major problem identified …some small schools to cancel their programs.

   

  More words that support our interpretation –

   

  ‘Resolved’ means firm

  AHD 6 (American Heritage Dictionary, http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/resolved)

  Resolve TRANSITIVE VERB:1. To make a firm decision about. 2. To cause (a person) to reach a decision. See  synonyms at decide. 3. To decide or express by formal vote.

   

  -- ‘Should’ requires an immediate increase – not in the future

  Summer 94 (Justice, Oklahoma Supreme Court, “Kelsey v. Dollarsaver Food Warehouse of Durant”, http://www.oscn.net/applications/oscn/DeliverDocument.asp?CiteID=20287#marker3fn14)

  4 The legal question to be resolved by …See Van Wyck v. Knevals, , 365, 1 S.Ct. 336, 337, 27 L.Ed. 201 (1882).

   

  'Substantial' means certain and immediate

  Words and Phrases 64 (40W&P 759)

  The words" outward, open, actual, …any others; undivided; sole; opposed to inclusive.

   

  Each is a voting issue – ignoring 1 word in the resolution makes the whole thing meaningless – means affs are literally infinite and impossible to predict

   

   

  Neg: Georgia LL

  Round #4  Tournament: Shirley

  Vs Team: Dartmouth ER

  Judge: Aaron Hady

   

   

  Off Case Args:

   

  T-Must specify recipient

   

  SCAF Backlash DA

   

  Consult UN CP

   

  Text: Text: The USFG should propose….. to the UN democracy fund advosry board. The USFG should provide all financial aid and technical assistance for the UN Demo fund to implement the program

   

   

  -UN Credibility NB (Prolif Impact)

   

  Pressure CP

   

  The USFG Should make military assistance to the Republic of Egypt conditional on democratic reforms including but not limited to anti-corruption. If conditions aren’t met in a given year, assistance will be added to an endowment for the next year. We’ll clarify.

   

  Dip Cap DA (APEC SUMMIT)

  >Focus on East Asia now

  >Plan is a shift from that

  >K2 APEC

  >Asian Engagement k2 solve nuke war

   

   

  Case Args:

   

  Egyptian Democracy kills U.S. influence

   

  No Egypt FTA

   

  Debt Crisis solves m/e war

   

  Squo solves democracy

   

  No Egyptian Prolif

   

  De-Dev

   

  -Growth Unsustainable

   

  -Transition away is key-Collapse in the future makes it worst

   

  -Econ collapse from growth causes warming

   

  Block Strategy:

   

  2NC=Kicks Pressure CP, Extends UN CP & Case

   

  1NR = Stability Adv (DeDev) & Dip Cap

   

   

  2nr Strategy:

   

  APEC Disad + Case

  >Chinese integration k2 solve war

  
  
• 
  
  

Shirley - APEC Disad

• Tournament: Shirley | Round: 5 | Opponent: NU LV | Judge:
  
  

• APEC DA Cards

  APEC 1NC

  Obama’s strategy is shifting from the Middle East to East Asia. The plan sidetracks Obama’s ability to push for engage APEC.

  Reuters, 11/1/2011 (Obama to shift spotlight to Asia at Hawaii, p. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/01/obama-asia-idUSN1E79T04A20111101)

  President Barack Obama, whose foreign … Clinton has worked particularly hard on it.

  Plan costs capital – massively unpopular.

  Greenblat, 8-25-2011 (Alan – NPR Correspondent, “What Should The U.S. Do Next In Libya?,” http://www.npr.org/2011/08/25/139921476/what-should-the-u-s-do-next-in-libya)

  With Moammar Gadhafi and his regime … to get much beyond the release of its blocked assets.

  Political controversies will force Obama to cut the Asia trip short.

  Bower, 10/27/2011 (Ernest Z. – senior adviser and director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Why November Matters for Obama, The Diplomat, p. )

  The poisonous atmosphere in …. and the country’s security interests.

  A successful APEC summit signals Obama’s commitment to engagement in Asia.

  Robinson, 11/9/2011 (Dan, Obama Asia-Pacific Trip Part of US ‘Refocus’ on Region, Voice of America News, p. http://www.voanews.com/english/news/usa/Obama-Asia-Pacific-Trip-Part-of-US-Refocus-on-Region-133572823.html)

  President Barack Obama leaves on Friday … countries in the Asia-Pacific region," Carney said.

  Engagement in Asia prevents multiple scenarios of nuclear war.

  Colby, 8/10/2011 (Elbridge – research analyst at the Center for Naval Analysis, Why US Needs its Liberal Empire, The Diplomat, Why US needs its Liberal Empire, p. http://the-diplomat.com/2011/08/10/why-us-needs-its-liberal-empire/?all=true)

  But the pendulum shouldn’t be allowed … regional security challenges.   

   

  Impact Overview – 2NC

  DA outweighs and turns the case – Asia war is the biggest impact – the region has the most people and most countries have nuclear weapons, so even if we win a smaller probability – our impact still outweighs. Our impact is quick – US disengagement sends a quick signal that wrecks most checks on Asian war.

  Turns their credibility advantage – if Obama can’t signal his commitment to major economic allies, adversaries will lash out

  Bolton 9 (John R., Senior Fellow – American Enterprise Institute and Former U.S. Ambassador – United Nations, “The Danger of Obama’s Dithering”, Los Angeles Times, 10-18,

  )

   

  Weakness in American …weakness and indecision.

   

   

  Asian Engagement Impact – Leadership

  A signal of Asian engagement is critical to leadership, the economy, and prevents multiple scenarios of conflict.

  Clinton, November 2011 (Hillary – Secretary of State, America’s Pacific Century, Foreign Policy, p. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/americas_pacific_century?page=0,0)

  As the war in Iraq winds down and … in the military activities of the region's key players.

  Nuclear war.

  Walter Russell Mead, NPQ's Board of Advisors, New Perspectives Quarterly, Summer 1992, p.30

  What if the global economy stagnates… Germany and Japan did in the '30s.

  Korean war results in extinction.

  Africa News, 10-25-1999, p. lexis

  Lusaka - If there is one place today … relations with North Korea.

   

   

   

  Ext – Political Fights Undermine APEC

  Political distractions undermines Obama’s APEC trip.

  MacInnis, 11/7/2011 (Laura, Budget battles to shadow Obama on Asia-Pacific tour, Chicago Tribune, p. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-apec-obama-poliitcstre7a60xm-20111106,0,3144491.story)

  President Barack Obama's efforts next … step up if the negotiations start to go off track.

   

   

  Ext – Shortening Trip Impact

  Shortening the trip undermines allied support.

  The Washington Post, 11/11/2011 (Obama administration pours time and capital into Asia-Pacific ties, eyeing jobs and security, p.http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/obama-administration-pours-time-and-capital-into-asia-pacific-ties-eyeing-jobs-and-security/2011/11/11/gIQAiBYBBN_print.html)

  “I can see the domestic political … concerns for Obama.

   

  Impact – Trip Key/Asian Engagement

  APEC summit is key to an Asian trade agreement that spurs growth, cements ties, and prevents protectionism.

  Richardson, 10/22/2011  (Michael – visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South East Asian Studies in Singapore, Japan Times, p. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/eo20111022mr.html)

  The next critical test will be … and make money, to improve their lives.

   

   

  A2: Funding = Small – Libya Specific

  The debate over intervention in Libya will spill over – Even if the funding is appropriated already Congress will still backlash on other issues.

  Emery 8-23-11  (Theo, Staff Writer – Boston Globe, “Congress could resist additional aid to Libya,” http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/08/congress-could-resist-additional-aid-libya/DMmIHbENjJ0A6QBAednf0M/index.html)

  The crux of debate over Libya …nations are we going to build in any one time?”

   

   

   

  Libya Lx – Bipart Opposition

  Bipartisan opposition to democracy assistance for Libya

  Emery 8-23-11  (Theo, Staff Writer – Boston Globe, “Congress could resist additional aid to Libya,” http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/08/congress-could-resist-additional-aid-libya/DMmIHbENjJ0A6QBAednf0M/index.html)

  After protests erupted in Libya early … – plus we can’t afford it,” Frank said.

   

  
  
• 
  
  

Shirley Round 5 vs. NU LV

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• GEORGIA 1NC vs. NORTHWESTERN LV

  Continued instability is key to Russian oil revenue and overall growth

  Kramer 11 (Andrew, writer – New York Times, “Russia Cashes In on Anxiety Over Supply of Middle East Oil,” NYT, 3-7, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/08/business/global/08oil.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1)

   

  Whatever the eventual outcome of …more than stability.”

   

  Nuclear war

  David 99 (Steven R., Prof PoliSci – Johns Hopkins U., Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb, Lexis)

   

  If internal war does strike …d follow a Russian civil war.

   

   

  2

   

  Security is a social construct. Framing democracy as an objective matter of security performs a violent construction of identity and ignores our own role in provoking aggression

  Barkawi 99 (Tarak, Center for International Studies – University of Cambridge, and Marke Laffey, Lecturer in International Politics – SOAS, “The Imperial Peace: Democracy, Force, and Globalization”, European Journal of International Relations, 5(4), p. 419-422)

   

  Discarding the assumptions of …post-Cold  War international system.

   

  Disorder and insecurity are inevitable. Attempting to control danger is the impetus for global destruction

  Der Derian 98 (James, Professor of Political Science – University of Massachusetts, On Security, Ed. Lipschutz, p. 24-25)

   

  No other concept in … calcifying into a fearful sameness.

   

  Vote Neg to reject the dominant framing of security. This critical praxis is a prerequisite to effective policy solutions

  Bruce 96 (Robert, Associate Professor in Social Science – Curtin University and Graeme Cheeseman, Senior Lecturer – University of New South Wales, Discourses of Danger and Dread Frontiers, p. 5-9)

   

  This goal is pursued in … not to understand them, and why?

   

   

  3

  Text: The United States Federal Government should propose that it provide support for transparent democratic governance in Libya to the United Nations Democracy Fund Advisory Board.  The United States Federal Government should provide all financial and technical assistance for the United Nations Democracy Fund to implement the proposal.

  Competes –

  Tests ‘Its’ which is possessive

  English Grammar, 5 (Glossary of English Grammar Terms, )

  Mine, yours, his, hers, … disk and shows that it belongs to me.)

   

  Counterplans that test the resolution are key to predictable ground

   

  Solves -

  UN action solves Libya and backlash.

  El Kasm, 11/10/2011 (Saeb – anti-corruption consultant whose clients include the UNODC, Lecturer at University of California, Irvine, Rebuilding Libya, Truthout, p. )

  With the declaration of … keep the Libyan transition on track.

  Counterplan is vital to UN credibility

  Deen, 10 (Thalif, “U.N. Faces Threat of Irrelevancy Amid Big Power Politics”, Inter Press Service (IPS), September 28, http://www.galdu.org/web/index.php?odas=4772&giella1=eng)

   

  Judging by remarks …, Bennis declared.

   

  US engagement with the UN is key to effective multilateralism – solves prolif and every impact

  Brimmer, 11 (Esther - Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Organization Affairs, Revitalizing the United Nations and Multilateral Cooperation, 2/1, p. http://www.state.gov/p/io/rm/2011/155854.htm)

   

  So our discussion … by other states.

   

  Global nuclear war

  Utgoff 2 (Victor A., Deputy Director of the Strategy, Forces, and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analysis, Survival Vol 44 No 2 Proliferation, Missile Defence and American Ambitions, p. 87-90)

   

  In sum, widespread … whole nations.

   

  4

  Obama’s strategy is shifting from the Middle East to East Asia. The plan sidetracks Obama’s ability to push for engage APEC.

  Reuters, 11/1/2011 (Obama to shift spotlight to Asia at Hawaii, p. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/01/obama-asia-idUSN1E79T04A20111101)

  President Barack Obama, …worked particularly hard on it.

  Plan costs capital – massively unpopular.

  Greenblat, 8-25-2011 (Alan – NPR Correspondent, “What Should The U.S. Do Next In Libya?,” http://www.npr.org/2011/08/25/139921476/what-should-the-u-s-do-next-in-libya)

  With Moammar Gadhafi … of its blocked assets.

  Political controversies will force Obama to cut the Asia trip short.

  Bower, 10/27/2011 (Ernest Z. – senior adviser and director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Why November Matters for Obama, The Diplomat, p. )

  The poisonous atmosphere in Washington will put pressure on Barack Obama to cut short his Asia trip. He should ignore it. US President Barack Obama and his national security and economic teams have done a good job in the past several months focusing on US interests in the Asia-Pacific region, and taking the case for engagement in this dynamic region to Americans. Investing political capital by explaining that promoting US interests in Asia is fundamentally linked to economic recovery and that maintaining peace and stability in the 21st century lays the foundation for policy development and commitment of resources. Despite this outstanding effort, getting November right is essential for the United States and Obama in order to harvest the good work and intentions of his team. It will be a real test. November presents a gruelling overseas schedule for the president: the G-20 meeting in Cannes in the first week, the APEC Leaders’ Summit in Honolulu in the second week, and a trip to visit stalwart US ally Australia and then the East Asia Summit (EAS) and US-ASEAN Leaders Meeting in Indonesia in the third week. Politically, this is a lot of travel to be undertaking during the coming (and seemingly never-ending) showdown with Congress over funding the government. In the worst-case scenario, a decision on a continuing resolution could take place while the president is in Bali. Domestic political staff and schedulers will hate this juxtaposition in the month that marks one year until national elections. There will be real pressure to consider cutting back the trip. However, failure to participate in these important meetings would badly undercut US national security and economic interests, effectively trading the blood, sweat, and tears of the broadly defined national security team to defend a political news cycle. What’s at stake? In the balance lies the health of the US economy and the country’s security interests.

  A successful APEC summit signals Obama’s commitment to engagement in Asia.

  Robinson, 11/9/2011 (Dan, Obama Asia-Pacific Trip Part of US ‘Refocus’ on Region, Voice of America News, p. http://www.voanews.com/english/news/usa/Obama-Asia-Pacific-Trip-Part-of-US-Refocus-on-Region-133572823.html)

  President Barack Obama … in the Asia-Pacific region," Carney said.

  Engagement in Asia prevents multiple scenarios of nuclear war.

  Colby, 8/10/2011 (Elbridge – research analyst at the Center for Naval Analysis, Why US Needs its Liberal Empire, The Diplomat, Why US needs its Liberal Empire, p. http://the-diplomat.com/2011/08/10/why-us-needs-its-liberal-empire/?all=true)

  But the pendulum shouldn’t be … of rising regional security challenges.   

   

  5

  The United States Federal Government should inform the National Transitional Council of Libya that United States will provide support for transparent democratic governance in Libya if, and only if, al-Megrahi is returned to prison.

  It competes –

  Tests “resolved” which means “to make a firm decision”, and “should” which is “used to imply obligation or duty” – counterplans that test the resolution are key to predictable ground

   

  [American Heritage Dictionary – dictionary.com]

  Leverage is key to get the NTC to imprison al-Megrahi. The CP avoids politics.

  Rozen, 8/31/2011 (Laura - former Politico chief foreign-policy writer, The Envoy Foreign Policy blog at Yahoo! News, Schumer: Halt funds to Libya until Lockerbie bomber jailed, Yahoo! News, p. http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/envoy/schumer-halt-aid-libya-until-lockerbie-bomber-jailed-170144983.html)

  Sen. Charles Schumer, the …, and for UN humanitarian aid programs in the country.

  Conditioning on al-Megrahi’s imprisonment sends a strong signal that restores U.S. resolve. Weakness on terrorism sparks aggression.

  Del Monte, 8/26/2009 (Bryan – former Bush Administration official and national security/foreign affairs policy expert, Obama’s Weakness is Provocative, Human Events, p. http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=33271)

  It is said that the road to Hell is …, how can we expect anyone else to respect us?

   

  Terrorism resolve prevents world war.

  Mark Silverberg, Ariel Center for Policy Research, Attorney with degrees in Law, International Relations, and Political Science – University of Manitoba, Former Member of the Justice Dep’t, “Only Resolve is Respected”, 5-31-2006, http://www.jfednepa.org/mark%20silverberg/onlyresolve.html

  In the Arab world, only resolve is …e us back into pre-World War I isolationism.

   

   

  Stability Adv

   

  Turn – assistance bolsters corruption in Libya.

  Rubin, 8/22/2011 (Michael - resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, Don’t Flood Libya with Aid, Commentary Magazine, p. http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/08/22/libya-aid/)

  It’s no secret that … reconstruct smoothly.

  Democracy assistance in Libya will lead to backlash and anti-Americanism.

  Applebaum, 8/23/2011 (Anne, Let Libya take charge of its revolution, The Washington Post, p. http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/let-libya-take-charge-of-its-revolution/2011/08/23/gIQAmuEuZJ_story.html)

  The Libyan revolution … American flag draped over his head.

  Instability inevitable

  Pelham, 11 (Nicolas, senior consultant, based in Jerusalem, for the International Crisis Group, “The Battle for Libya”, March 10, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2011/apr/07/battle-libya/?page=3)

   

  A quick overthrow of …, to their looted caches of weapons.

   

  No impact to Libyan instability

  Paikin 11 research associate at the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (Zach Paikin, July 12, 2011, “US Foreign Policy: Syria vs. Libya”, The Sentry, )

   

  On a geopolitical level, … the current regime is.

   

  Canada solves for Libyan instability- get multilateral actors onboard

  Kennedy 11 staff writer(Maria Kennedy, September 20, 2011, “Canada will stand by Libya as it rebuilds”, Postmedia News, )

   

   

  Prime Minister Stephen Harper declared …rom dealing with the entire Libyan government.

   

   

  Terrorism

   

  -- No nuclear terrorism – acquisition impossible – prefer recent evidence

  Krepon 9 (Michael, Co-Founder – Henry L. Stimson Center and Diplomat Scholar – University of Virginia, “The Mushroom Cloud That Wasn’t”, Foreign Affairs, May / June, Lexis)

   

  At the height of the Cold War, … from occurring -- than ever before.

   

  -- No motive for nuclear terror

  Maerli 00 (Morten Bremer, Science Program Fellow in the Center for International Security and Cooperation – Stanford University, “Relearning the ABCs: Terrorists and “Weapons of Mass Destruction”, The Nonproliferation Review, Summer)

   

  Furthermore, a group’s interest in … would be less appealing.

   

  -- No extinction

  Easterbrook 3 (Gregg, Senior Fellow – New Republic, “We’re All Gonna Die!”, Wired Magazine, July, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.07/doomsday.html?pg=1&topic=&topic_set=)

   

  If we're talking about … of Things Past while lying in bed.

   

  -- Tech hurdles prevent bioterror

  Mueller 6 (John, Chair of National Security Studies – Mershon Center and Professor of Political Science – Ohio State University, Overblown, p. 24)

   

  Not only has the … inhibit their effective use.

  -- No pandemic or extinction – history proves

  Easterbrook 3 (Gregg, Senior Fellow – New Republic, “We’re All Gonna Die!”, Wired Magazine, July, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.07/doomsday.html?pg=1&topic=&topic_set=)

   

  3. Germ warfare!Like chemical … before, and it seems unlikely to happen in the future.

   

  Credibility Adv

  US influence is impossible – human rights hypocrisy

  Katulis 9 (Brian - senior fellow at American Progress, Democracy Promotion in the Middle East and the Obama Administration, The Century Foundation, p. 8-9)

   

  Actions speak louder than words. … perceived throughout the Middle East.

   

  Palestine veto triggers the plan

  Fifield 9-18-11 (Anna Fifield, “Obama conflicted over Palestine question,” Sept. 18, 2011, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0e21ea0a-dfe2-11e0-a820-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1YE8sIoU1)

  Exactly a year ago this week, … half-heartedly pursued since taking office.

   

  Overwhelms the plan

  Talbott 6 (Strobe, President – Brookings Institution, Keynote Address to Stanley Foundation Conference, "Bush Foreign Policy: The Next Phase", 12-7, http://www.brook.edu/views/speeches/talbott/20061207.htm)

   

  To its credit, starting in 2004, even before …—and, by the way, to many of our own citizens.

   

  AT: Hege Impact

   

  Heg doesn’t prevent conflict

   

  Crawford 3 (Timothy W., Professor of Political Science – Boston College, Pivotal Deterrence: Third-Party Statecraft and the Pursuit of Peace, p. 209-210)

   

  Forward Engagement, Global Leadership, and U.S. Pivotal Deterrence

  As the preponderant power in a …many deadly conflicts as it knits back together.

   

  -- Internal conflicts drive wars – heg can’t solve

   

  Conry 97 (Barbara, Foreign Policy Analyst – Cato, Policy Analysis No. 267, 2-5, “U.S. ‘Global Leadership’: A Euphemism for World Policeman,” http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-267.html)

   

  Other proponents of U.S. …. into it, as it did in Somalia and Bosnia. [59]

   

  -- Heg is resilient

  Wohlforth 7 (William, Professor of Government – Dartmouth College, “Unipolar Stability”, Harvard International Review, Spring, http://hir.harvard.edu/articles/1611/3/)

   

  US military forces are stretched thin, … large wellsprings of latent power.

   

  AT: Russia

   

  -- Expansion inevitable – Russian geography

  Stratfor 8 (“The Russian Resurgence and the New-Old Front”, 9-15,

  http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20080915_russian_resurgence_and_new_old_front)

   

  Russia is attempting to reforge its … choose a more activist set of policies.

   

  -- No risk of Russia war

   

  Ball 5 (Desmond, Professor – Strategic Defence Studies Centre at Australian National University, “The Probabilities of ‘On the Beach’ Assessing Armageddon Scenarios in the 21^st Century, May, )

   

  The prospects of a nuclear war … control centres and leadership bunkers).

   

  -- No escalation

   

  Newsday 5 (2-27, Lexis)

   

  Relations between Washington … not easily resolved.

   

   

   

   

  AT: China War

  -- No US/China war – relations are stable – and economics checks

  Sargent 8 (Sara, Business Reporter – Medill News Service, “China Space Launch Raises Fears”, UPI, 10-3, Lexis)

   

  In January 2007 China … exceptionally unlikely scenario.

   

  -- Won’t go nuclear

  PPG 4 (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Pennsylvania), 9-29, Lexis)

   

  U.S. military capacity is now … not into terrorism.

   

  Chinese nationalism won’t cause war

   

  Khalilzad 99 (Zalmay, Senior Researcher – RAND Corporation, “The United States and a Rising China: Strategic and Military Implications”) 

   

  The recovery in July 1997 of Hong … have chosen to avoid. 

   

  U.S. nuclear primacy checks war

  Lieber and Press 6 (Keir A., Assistant Professor of Political Science – Notre Dame and Daryl G., Associate Professor of Political Science – University of Pennsylvania, Foreign Affairs, March / April, Lexis)

   

  For almost half a century, the world's … unconstrained United States, will worry.

   

  -- Chinese leadership will pull back

  Ross 1 (Robert S., Professor of Political Science – Boston College, The National Interest, Fall, Lexis)

   

  The strategic costs to … Sino-American war.

   

  -- History proves no risk of China war – their cards are all hype

  Dyer 9 (Gwynne, Ph.D. in War Studies – University of London and Board of Governors – Canada’s Royal Military College, “China Unlikely to Engage in Military Confrontation”, Jakarta Post, 4-29,

  http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2005/03/12/china-unlikely-engage-military-confrontation.html)

   

  Given America's monopoly … of impending war in East Asia.

   

  AT: Indo-Pak

   

  -- No India/Pakistan war –

   

  A) Deterrence

  Tellis 2 (Ashley, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Orbis, Winter, p. 24-5)

   

  In the final analysis, this situation … South Asian region.

   

  B) Economics

  Tellis 2 (Ashley, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Orbis, Winter, p. 19)

   

  In any event, the saving grace that … and the United States.

   

  C) Indian no-first-use and regional CBMs

  Malik 3 (Mohan, The Stability Of Nuclear Deterrence In South Asia, Asian Affairs, Fall)

   

  Regarding the technical requirements …nd secure transport of sensitive items.27

   

  D) Fallout blow-back

  Cohen 2 (Stephen, Senior Fellow @ Brookings, Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear War in South Asia: An Unknowable Future, May, http://www.brook.edu/views/speeches/cohens20020501.pdf)

   

  There will be little likelihood of a …, thus enhancing self-deterrence.

   

  -- No extinction – impact is local

  Dyer 2 (Gwynne, Ph.D. in War Studies – University of London and Board of Governors – Canada’s Royal Military College, “Nuclear War a Possibility Over Kashmir”, Hamilton Spectator, 5-24, Lexis)

   

  For those who do not live in the … they are mostly still here.

   

  
  
• 
  
  

Saudi DA vs Bahrain

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Saudi being assured by US military umbrella now – but US reliability is being called into question
  Ignatius, 11/20 (David, syndicated columnist for The Washington Post, “Saudi Arabia expands its power as US influence diminishes”, The Washington Post, http://hussainabdulhussain.blogspot.com/2011/11/saudi-arabia-expands-its-power-as-us.html)
  
  Saudis describe the kingdom’s growing role as a
  AND
  its divine powers are certainly suspect in Riyadh.
  
  Plan locks in the Saudi’s sense of insecurity and abandonment
  Mutter, 11 (Paul, contributor to Foreign Policy In Focus and The Arabist, “The U.S.-Saudi “Special Relationship” and The Arab Spring”, June 28, http://www.arabist.net/blog/2011/6/28/the-us-saudi-special-relationship-and-the-arab-spring.html)
  
  Protests have already removed pro-U.
  AND
  significant influence on U.S. politics.
  Further tension results in alliance collapse
  Takeyh, 11 (Ray, PhD from Oxford, Adjunct professor, Center for Peace and Security Studies, Georgetown University, Senior adviser to special adviser for Gulf and Southwest Asia, Department of State, Professor of National Security Studies, National War College, Fellow in International Security Studies, Yale University, “A Post-American Day Dawns in the Mideast”, New York Times, June 9, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/opinion/09iht-edtakeyh09.html?_r=2)
  
  For nearly 60 years, Saudi Arabia predicated
  AND
  be seriously contemplated in the House of Saud.
  The impact is Saudi prolif
  Rozen, 11 (Laura, Chief foreign policy reporter for Politico, quoting Patrick Clawson, a Persian Gulf expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Marc Lynch, a Middle East expert at George Washington University “Arab spring setbacks in the shadow of complicated U.S.-Saudi alliance”, Yahoo News, April 18, http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theenvoy/20110418/ts_yblog_theenvoy/optimism-for-arab-spring-fades-in-face-of-complicated-u-s-saudi-alliance)
  
  Riyadh, alarmed by the Obama administration's failure to prop up its ally of three decades Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, is sending signs of its displeasure and interest in exploring alternative security arrangements. Last month, former Saudi envoy to Washington now Saudi national security chief Prince Bandar went to Pakistan, ostensibly to discuss the possibility of recruiting Pakistani troops to help Sunni Gulf allies suppress Bahraini unrest.
  But some Washington Middle East analysts interpreted the
  AND
  , they are accused of being Iranian agents."
  Saudi prolif causes nuclear war from miscalculation
  Edelman et al, 11 – (Eric S., Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments; he was U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Andrew Krepinevich, President of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, and Evan Montgomery, Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, “The dangers of a nuclear Iran”, Foreign Affairs,  http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran)
  
  There is, however, at least one
  AND
  a new Great Game, with unpredictable consequences.
  
  And, timeframe – our impacts happen first due to Saudi lash out in the short term
  Quinn, 11 (Andrew, Writer for Reuters, “Analysis: Bahrain crisis exposes U.S.-Saudi Arabia rift”, March 15, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/15/us-saudi-usa-analysis-idUSTRE72E89O20110315)
  
  Few suggest that the fundamentals of the U
  AND
  regarded Saudi Arabia as "an important partner."
  Plan causes Saudis to take matters into their own hands – kills any progress the aff achieves
  Ghazal, 11 (Amal, Assistant professor of Middle Eastern History, Dalhousie University, “Saudi Interests Stand in the Way of Bahrain's Democracy”, Feb 23, http://www.themarknews.com/articles/4185-saudi-interests-stand-in-the-way-of-bahrain-s-democracy)
  
  Saudi Arabia looks at Bahrain as a buffer
  AND
  think the Obama administration scapegoated Mubarak too quickly).
  That jacks the dialogue – Saudi Arabia controls how Bahrain’s leaders negotiate it
  Surk, 11 (Barbara, “Bahrain's Rulers Start Dialogue With Opposition”, Associated Press, http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=13997164)
  
  Washington has pushed for dialogue in the strategic
  AND
  East analyst at the Eurasia Group in Washington.
  
  
  Turns Case – Fifth Fleet Advantage
  Saudi relations key to make US military presence in the Gulf effective
  Telhami and Hill, 2 (Shibley - Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland, College Park, and non-resident senior fellow at the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution, and Hill - Director, Center on the United States and Europe Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy The Stephen and Barbara Friedman Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute, “Does Saudi Arabia Still Matter? Differing Perspectives on the Kingdom and Its Oil”, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2002, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/58444/shibley-telhami-fiona-hill-et-al/does-saudi-arabia-still-matter-differing-perspectives-on-the-kin?page=show)
  
  Given America's ongoing security interest in the Persian
  AND
  in the case of a war with Iraq.
  
   
  AT: Relations Resilient
  Relations not resilient – traditional anchors of relationship have been eliminated
  Haass, 12/12 (Richard N., President - Council on Foreign Relations, “Saudi Arabia and the New Middle East”, December, http://www.cfr.org/saudi-arabia/saudi-arabia-new-middle-east/p26663)
  
  The United States’ relationship with Saudi Arabia has
  AND
  perhaps more appropriate and sustainable—future partnership.
  Rising negative perceptions of US take out their warrants for resiliency
  Marone, 9 (David, Master’s candidate. “The U.S. Footprint on the Arabian Peninsula: Can We Avoid a Repeat of the Pullout from Saudi Arabia? (thesis)”, Naval Postgraduate School, December, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA514375&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)
  
  Primarily, historical research explains the dynamics of
  AND
  relationships the United States shares with GCC countries.
  Resilience doesn’t assume the current king – emotion drives his decision making
  Molavi, 11 (Afshin, Middle East scholar at the New American Foundation, “The state of the Saudi-U.S. relationship”, interview with Fareed Zakaria, CNN, globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/22/the-state-of-the-saudi-u-s-relationship/)
  
  At the bureaucratic level, the Saudi-
  AND
  the king met with others during this time.
  AT: Won’t Leave US Defense Umbrella
  Saudi overreaction means they’ll leave US protection – if they feel threatened
  Guzansky, 11 (Yoel, Research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, “Tehran tests Saudis' nerve on nuclear weapons”, July 1, The Australian, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/tehran-tests-saudis-nerve-on-nuclear-weapons/story-e6frg6ux-1226085108555
  
  Saudi Arabia, at least for now,
  AND
  of even contradictory steps to ensure its security.
  
  
  
  
  AT: Saudi Won’t Nuclearize
  Saudi seriously considering nuclearizing – recent prince statement
  NYT, 12/6 (New York Times, “Prince Hints Saudi Arabia May Join Nuclear Arms Race”, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/07/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-may-seek-nuclear-weapons-prince-says.html)
  
  DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)
  AND
  has refused to confirm or deny their existence.
  Saudi will nuclearize – their defense doesn’t assume internal politics
  Center for Contemporary Conflict, 4 (“Conference on WMD Proliferation in the Middle East: Directions and Policy Options in the New Century”, Naval Post-Graduate School, June 28, http://www.ciaonet.org/olj/si/si_3_8/si_3_8_ruj01.pdf)
  
  James Russell from the Naval Postgraduate School presented
  AND
  means to ensure U.S. engagement?
   
  AT: Saudi Can’t Nuclearize
  And, it’s likely – very close security links – our ev cites experts
  UPI, 11 (United Press International, “Saudis 'eye Pakistani nukes' to face Iran”, Sept. 15, http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/09/15/Saudis-eye-Pakistani-nukes-to-face-Iran/UPI-15881316101921/)
  
  Increasingly, Pakistan is rushing to the defense
  AND
  against the aggressor with its own nuclear arms.
   

  
  
• 
  
  

Iran Aggression Answers

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• Turn – isolation causes Iran aggression – turns the case
  Davis and Pfaltzgraff 8 executive vice president; President (Dr. Jacquelyn K. Davis and Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgradd, Jr. September 2008, “Iran with Nuclear Weapons”, The Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis)
  
  
  This model represents a worse-case scenario
  AND
  objectives exist, but basically they embody the primary
  Iran will not be aggressive – they will back down from direct confrontation.
  Savyon, 11 (Ayelet – director of the Iranian Media Project at the Middle East Media Research Institute, Iran’s Defeat in Bahrain, 7/4, p. http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5424.htm)
  
  Despite its image as a looming superpower,
  AND
  on both the regional and the global levels.
  
  -- Iran won’t be aggressive – too many checks in the system
  
  Boroujerdi 7 (Mehrzad, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program, “Iranian Nuclear Miasma”, Syracuse Law Review, 57 Syracuse L. Rev. 619, Lexis)
  
  The potential for groupthink miscalculations is also thwarted
  AND
  a boldly offensive or miscalculated action less realistic.
  
  

  
  
• 
  
  

Neg v. Harvard KT- PITT RR 1

• Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:
  
  

• 1nc –

  Topicality-

  Interpretation – a topical aff builds democracy.

  Lappin 10 (Richard, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade, “What we talk about when we talk about Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,” Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, Vol 4, Issue 1, 2010)

  Such fastidiousness on the boundaries of what should

  AND

  post-conflict democracy assistance can be drawn.

  Violation – the plan weakens the regime. It doesn’t build democracy

  Rettig, 11/17/2011 (Jessica, How U.S. Could Encourage Peace in Syria, U.S. News & World Report, p. http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/11/17/how-us-could-encourage-peace-in-syria)

  First, the Obama administration could set up

  AND

  Balkans and also in Egypt to an extent."

  PTC Politics-

  PTC will pass

  Politico, 1/16/2012 (Payroll tax cut deal may come faster than expected, p. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71509.html)

  The one-year payroll tax deal that

  AND

  before they expire at the end of February.

   

  The plan costs capital – even if they don’t spend money.

  Los Angeles Times, 4/12/2011 (Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition, p. )

  The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid

  AND

  resistance from appropriators in Congress, aides say.

  Payroll extension prevents a recession. Provides resiliency.

  CNN Money, 12/20/2011 (Economists: Payroll tax deadlock could hobble economy, p. )

  If Congress fails to pass an extension of

  AND

  Sal Guatieri senior economist with BMO Capital Markets.

  Extinction

  Auslin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)

  What do these trends mean in the short

  AND

  small explosions that coalesce into a big bang.

  Orientalism-

  The aff cements an orientalist  and securitized understanding of Arab revolutions causing inevitable backlash

  Ghannoushi 11 (Soumaya, researcher in the history of ideas at the School of Oriental and African Studies, “Obama, hands off our spring,” 5-26, www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/26/obama-hands-off-arab-spring)

   

  The US wants to turn the Arab revolutions

  AND

  preach democracy, while occupying and aiding occupation.

  Orientalism makes war and genocide inevitable

  Batur 7 (Pinar – Vassar College, Handbook of the Sociology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, “Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide”)

   

  Albert Memmi argued that “We have no

  AND

  century opened up with genocide, in Darfur.

   

  Disorder and insecurity are inevitable.  Attempting to control danger is the impetus for global destruction

  Der Derian 98 (James, Professor of Political Science – University of Massachusetts, On Security, Ed. Lipschutz, p. 24-25)

   

  No other concept in international relations packs the

  AND

  , and identities calcifying into a fearful sameness.

   

  Vote neg to reject the aff’s understanding of the world.  Flawed representations are the root cause of instability.  Only rejection solves.

  Bilgin 5 (Pinar, Assistant Prof of International Relations at Bilkent University, Regional Security in the Middle East:  A Critical Perspective, p12-)

   

  Although the ‘Middle East’ preserved its position

  AND

  be sought in this part of the world.

  Tax Credits CP-

  The United States Federal Government should remove Internal Revenue Code Tax restrictions on private organization and public charity contributions to foreign non-governmental organizations that contribute to democratic civil resistance assistance for Syria and offer a thirty-nine cent per dollar tax credit for private and business contributions providing support to democratic civil resistance assistance for Syria.

   

  CP expands private democracy assistance and avoids backlash.

  Crimm, February 2005 (Nina – professor of law at St. John’s University School of Law, Democratization, Global grant-Making, and the Internal Revenue Code Lobbying Restriction, 79 Tul. L. Rev. 587, p. lexis)

  Political circumstances may militate against the U.

  AND

  NGOs are the real DNA of democracy." n54

  Tax credits create a vested interest by businesses to expand development beyond the democracy.

  Muzinich and Werker, 6/2/2008 (Justin – works for a hedge fund, and Eric – assistant professor in the Business, Government & International economy unit at Harvard Business School, A Better Approach to Foreign Aid, Hoover Institution Policy Review, p. http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/5767)

  A third important advantage of involving the private

  AND

  the total size of the program should be.

  Strong private investment in development solves North/South backlash.

  Lodge 2006 (George C., professor of Business Administration – Harvard University Business School, and Craig Wilson, Executive Director – The Foundation for Development, A Corporate Solution to Global Poverty: How Multinationals Can Help the Poor and Invigorate Their Own Legacy, p. 2-4)

  Often, however, the corporate response to

  AND

  major factor in reducing poverty in developing countries.

  WMD conflict.

  Goldstein 10 (Joshua, Professor of International Relations – American University, “Changing World Order – Engaging the South”, International Relations, http://wps.ablongman.com/long_goldstein_ir_7/38/9780/25 03754.cw/index.html)

  In the last chapter’s “Changing World Order

  AND

  together the North and South in new ways?

   

  Net Benefit-

  Democracy assistance steals from the taxpayer. Only the CP avoids the link.

  Vance, December 2000 (Laurence M. – freelance writer for the Future of Freedom Foundation, The Foreign Aid Debacle, Ludwig von Mises Institute, p. http://mises.org/freemarket_detail.aspx?control=334)

  Although foreign aid comes in many forms besides

  AND

  their money is being taken without their consent.

  That undermines value to life and terminates in extinction.

  Rand 1963 (Ayn, The Virtue of Selfishness: A New Concept of Egoism, p. 145)

  A society that robs and individual of the

  AND

  than existence in Soviet Russia or Nazi Germany.

  Credibility Advantage-

  US cred impossible

  Katulis 9 (Brian - senior fellow at American Progress, Democracy Promotion in the Middle East and the Obama Administration, The Century Foundation, p. 8-9)

  Actions speak louder than words. In addition

  AND

  promotion front are perceived throughout the Middle East.

  Unilateral action doesn’t solve

  PRC 11 (May 17, Pew Research Center, "Arab Spring Fails to Improve U.S. Image", http://www.pewglobal.org/files/2011/05/Pew-Global-Attitudes-Arab-Spring-FINAL-May-17-2011.pdf)

   

  As President Obama prepares to make a major

  AND

  cooperate too much with the U.S.

  Syria won’t break from Iran.

  Husain, 10/5/2011 (Ed – senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, Is the U.S. Better off sticking with Syria’s Assad?, CNN, p. )

  And so it is today with predictions that

  AND

  tomorrow. The Iraq experience tells us otherwise.

  Turn – isolation causes Iran aggression – turns the case

  Davis and Pfaltzgraff 8 executive vice president; President (Dr. Jacquelyn K. Davis and Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgradd, Jr. September 2008, “Iran with Nuclear Weapons”, The Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis)

  This model represents a worse-case scenario

  AND

  objectives exist, but basically they embody the primary

  Iran will not be aggressive – they will back down from direct confrontation.

  Savyon, 11 (Ayelet – director of the Iranian Media Project at the Middle East Media Research Institute, Iran’s Defeat in Bahrain, 7/4, p. http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5424.htm)

   

  Despite its image as a looming superpower,

  AND

  on both the regional and the global levels.

  Iran won’t be aggressive – too many checks in the system

  Boroujerdi 7 (Mehrzad, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program, “Iranian Nuclear Miasma”, Syracuse Law Review, 57 Syracuse L. Rev. 619, Lexis)

   

  The potential for groupthink miscalculations is also thwarted

  AND

  a boldly offensive or miscalculated action less realistic.

  No retaliation

  Spring 1 (Baker, Research Fellow – Heritage Foundation, 9-20, http://www.heritage.org/Research/MissileDefense/BG1477.cfm)

   

  Nuclear retaliation is not appropriate for every kind

  AND

  to be able to resort to defensive options.

  -- No attacks – terrorists are weak

  Mueller 9 (John, Professor of Political Science – Ohio State University and Contributor – Foreign Affairs, “How Dangerous Are the Taliban?”, Foreign Affairs, April / May, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64932/john-mueller/how-dangerous-are-the-taliban)

   

  In addition, al Qaeda has yet to

  AND

  its capabilities are far inferior to its desires."

  Stability advantage-

  Assad will survive – all indicators agree.

  Ali, 1/19/2012 (S. Faisal, Assad’s confidence may prove misplaced, Arab News, p. )

  After 10 months of unrest in which thousands

  AND

  the killings of anti-government protesters continue.

  The threat of Assad collapse turns all their impacts

  Ceren, 8/1/2011 (Omri - PhD candidate at the University of Southern California’s Annenberg School for Communication, Just how bad could a Syrian collapse get, Commentary, p. http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/08/01/syrian-collapse-israel/)

  But the continued stability of the Syrian regime

  AND

  situation then obviously his decision calculus would change.

  Multiple scenarios of diversion to prevent collapse --- Iraq, Hezbollah, and Hammas.

  CNS News, 6/8/2011 (Syria’s Assad seeks Israel diversion, p. http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/analysis-syrias-assad-seeks-israel-diversion)

  Syrian President Bashar Assad, buffeted by an

  AND

  in Syria by encouraging these kind of protests."

  Iraq instability escalates to world war three.

  Corsi 7 (Jerome, "War with Iran is imminent," Phd in Poly Sci @ Harvard, author, + staff reporter @ World Net Daily, 1-8, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53669)

  If a broader war breaks out in Iraq

  AND

  much as World Wars I and II began.

   

  Assad won’t fall- multiple warrants

  Mishra 10/21/2011 Research analysis, doctoral student in political science at Banaras Hindu University (Saurabh Mishra, October 21, 2011, “Why Syria is not Libya”, Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis, )

   

   

  Libya was referred to the International Criminal Court

  AND

  deliberately toned down at the ‘right moment.

   

  Middle East war doesn’t escalate

  Maloney 7 (Suzanne, Senior Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Steve Cook, Fellow – Council on Foreign Relations, and Ray Takeyh, Fellow – Council for Foreign Relations, “Why the Iraq War Won’t Engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune, 6-28, http://www.brookings.edu/views/op-ed/maloney20070629.htm)

  Long before the Bush administration began selling "

  AND

  local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East.

  Won’t go nuclear

  Dyer 2 (Gwynne, Ph.D. in War Studies – University of London and Board of Governors – Canada’s Royal Military College, The Coming War, Queen’s Quarterly, December, Lexis)

   

  All of this indicates an extremely dangerous situation

  AND

  is: we are out of the business.

  A/t Russia War-

  -- No risk of Russia war

   

  Ball 5 (Desmond, Professor – Strategic Defence Studies Centre at Australian National University, “The Probabilities of ‘On the Beach’ Assessing Armageddon Scenarios in the 21^st Century, May, )

   

  The prospects of a nuclear war between the

  AND

  underground command and control centres and leadership bunkers).

   

  -- No escalation

   

  Newsday 5 (2-27, Lexis)

   

  Relations between Washington and Moscow are now more

  AND

  issues and by fundamental disagreements not easily resolved.

   

  -- Deterrence checks

   

  Turner 2 (Admiral Stansfield, Former Director – Central Intelligence Agency, Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Winter / Spring, 26 Fletcher F. World Aff. 115, Lexis)

   

  There are, of course, other centrals

  AND

  Russian deterrence as very close to its own.

  -- No chance of Russian first strike

   

  Turner 97 (Stansfield, Director of the Center for Security and International Relations – University of Maryland, Caging the Nuclear Genie, p. 57)

   

  The probability of Russia being able to coordinate

  AND

  procedures that appear to favor taking the offense.

   

  -- Tech hurdles prevent bioterror

  Mueller 6 (John, Chair of National Security Studies – Mershon Center and Professor of Political Science – Ohio State University, Overblown, p. 24)

   

  Not only has the science about chemical and

  AND

  technological hurdles that greatly inhibit their effective use.

  Block Split-

  2nc- Coercion, Orientalism, Credibility advantage  

  1nr- T, Stability advantage, Tax Credits CP

  2nr- Orientalism

   

   

  
  
• 
  
  

Neg v Wichita - Pitt RR

• Tournament: | Round: 3 | Opponent: BM | Judge: Eli Jacobs
  
  

• “Box Score”

   

  1NC

  1.            PTC Politics

  2.            SCAF D/A

  3.            Orientalism

  4.            Coercion

  5.            Private Investor CP / Philanthropy Net Ben

   

  2NC

  1.            Private investor CP

  2.            Coercion

  3.            Stability adv

   

  1NR

  1.            Politics

  2.            Cred adv

   

  2NR

  1.            Concede pltx: Obama wouldn’t get credit for plan – means don’t solve cred

  2.            Private CP

  3.            Internal Diplomacy Net Benefit

  4.            Case D

  Citations

   

  PTC POLITICS – 1NC

  PTC will pass

  Politico, 1/16/2012 (Payroll tax cut deal may come faster than expected, p. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71509.html)

  The one-year payroll tax deal … doctors before they expire at the end of February.

   

  The plan costs capital – even if they don’t spend money.

  Los Angeles Times, 4/12/2011 (Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition, p. http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)

  The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid to help .. has met strong resistance from appropriators in Congress, aides say.

  Payroll extension prevents a recession. Provides resiliency.

  CNN Money, 12/20/2011 (Economists: Payroll tax deadlock could hobble economy, p. http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-economists-payroll-tax-deadlock-could-hobble-economy-20111220,0,7377025.story)

  If Congress fails to pass an extension of the payroll tax holiday, … and we would become quite worried about the expansion," said Sal Guatieri senior economist with BMO Capital Markets.

  Extinction

  Auslin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)

  What do these trends mean in the short and medium term? The Great Depression showed how social and global chaos followed hard on economic collapse. The mere fact that parliaments across the globe, from America to Japan, are unable to make responsible, economically sound recovery plans suggests that they do not know what to do and are simply hoping for the least disruption. Equally worrisome is the adoption of more statist economic programs around the globe, and the concurrent decline of trust in free-market systems. The threat of instability is a pressing concern. China, until last year the world's fastest growing economy, just reported that 20 million migrant laborers lost their jobs. Even in the flush times of recent years, China faced upward of 70,000 labor uprisings a year. A sustained downturn poses grave … small explosions that coalesce into a big bang.

   

  POLITICS – 1NR

   

  DA outweighs the case –

  A) Magnitude – escalates to nuclear war that draws in other great powers. That’s Mead.

  B) Probability – economic collapse increases the probability of escalation.

  Beardon 00 (T.E., Director of Association of Distinguished American Scientists, The Unnecessary Energy Crisis: How to Solve It Quickly,” Space Energy Access Systems, http://www.seaspower.com/EnergyCrisis-Bearden.htm)

  History bears out that desperate nations take desperate actions. … at least for many decades.

  Economic downturn causes the U.S. to withdraw from democracy engagement in the Middle East.

  Bacevich, 2/27/2011 (Andrew J., Strategy: Sit On Your Hands, Newsweek, p. http://www.newsweek.com/2011/02/27/strategy-sit-on-your-hands.html)

  Then came the financial crisis of 2008… that decades of American folly had helped create.

  Case can’t turn the DA – PTC provides resiliency for the U.S. economy. That’s CNN Money.

  Will pass – assumes their thumpers

  Green, 1/19/2012 (Laura, After unproductive 2011, Congress faces numerous hot-button issues, Palm Beach Post, p. http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/state/after-unproductive-2011-congress-faces-numerous-hot-button-2110485.html)

  Congress is returning from a long winter's break to a procrastinator's nightmare. … such as the Bush tax cuts and deficit spending, until after the election.

  Democrats have momentum.

  Reuters, 1/19/2012 (Democrats to press advantage in payroll tax cut fight, p. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/19/us-usa-taxes-congress-idUSTRE80I1P520120119)

  After a bitter fight in December over extending the payroll tax break, … Republicans as favoring the wealthy over the struggling middle-class.

  GOP concessions

  New York Times, 1/17/2012 (Parties confident of extending payroll tax cut, p. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/18/us/politics/congress-sees-few-barriers-to-extending-payroll-tax-cut.html)

  With both parties largely in agreement on a yearlong … regulations on boilers and carbon emissions and to allow states to impose drug tests on recipients of unemployment benefits.

   

  Obama will distance himself from any non-payroll fight.

  Los Angeles Times, 1/1/2012 (Obama’s Resolution? To limit dealings with Congress, p. http://articles.latimes.com/2012/jan/01/nation/la-na-obama-plans-20120101)

  Heading into the new year, President Obama will insist that Congress renew the payroll…often blamed for Washington's gridlock and infighting.

  Issues only cost capital once they reach the finish line.

  Drum, 3/10/2010 (Kevin – political blogger for Mother Jones, Immigration coming off the back burner?, Mother Jones, p. http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2010/03/immigration-coming-back-burner)

  Not to pick on Ezra or anything, but this attitude betrays a … Maybe not. But they will be soon.

  Obama is using capital to get PTC now.

  Smith, 12/31/2011 (Stephanie, Obama maps out ‘warrior of working class’ message, ABC News, p. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/12/obama-maps-out-warrior-of-working-class-message/)

  After a heated battle between the White House … in the wake of the payroll tax fight. Republicans looked disorganized and petty, which helped Obama look more presidential.”

  PC works and is key to an extension.

  New York Times, 12/22/2011 (A Victory Considerably Aided by the Other Side, p. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/23/us/politics/for-obama-payroll-tax-victory-was-aided-by-republicans.html?_r=1)

  President Obama did not win much substantively with his victory … to play a strong hand will be tested soon — when Congress reconvenes in January to resume the fight over a full-year extension.

  Obama is Velcro – he will always get the blame. This shields the link.

  Los Angeles Times, 7/30/2010 (Obama the Velcro President, p. http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jul/30/nation/la-na-velcro-presidency-20100730)

  If Ronald Reagan was the classic Teflon president, … everything in the hundreds of public statements he has made: nuclear arms treaties, basketball star LeBron James' career plans; Chelsea Clinton's wedding.

  Only a risk of a link – PC is finite

  Pika 2 (Joseph, et al., Professor of Political Science – University of Delaware, The Politics of the Presidency, Fifth Edition, p. 293-294)

   

  Resources: Political Capital. One of the most important … which proposals for new programs and the emphasis to be placed on existing programs.

   

   

  A) GOP freak out

  Dueck, 11 (Colin, associate professor of public and international affairs at George Mason University, “Conservative Foreign Policy & Reagan's Legacy”, March 22, Free Republic, http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2693775/posts)

   

  America's current armed conflict … by the liberal, the idealistic and the well-meaning.

   

  B) Gets tied to Bush-style democracy – that costs capital

  Lappin, 10 (Richard, “Obama and Democracy Assistance: Challenges and Responses”, Carnegie Council, Feb 1, http://www.carnegiecouncil.org/resources/ethics_online/0042.html)

   

  U.S. democracy assistance has traditionally been … is to remain a preserve of U.S. foreign policy.

   

  C) Lawmakers with the most clout hate the plan – outweighs the link turn

  Sharp, 11 (Jeremy M., Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs – CRS, “Egypt: Background and U.S. Relations”, February 7, Congressional Research Service, http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/RL33003_20110207.pdf)

   

  Members of Congress are closely monitoring the situation in Egypt, … The role of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egyptian politics.  • Any new Egyptian government’s respect for Egypt’s 1979 peace treaty with  Israel, its commitments to securing the Suez Canal as an international waterway,  and plans for military and counterterrorism cooperation with the United States

   

  SCAF D/A – 1NC

  Military control is on the brink

  Corea 12-18 (Ernest, served as Sri Lanka's ambassador to Canada, Cuba, Mexico, and the US, “Egypt Continues March to Democracy,” In Depth News, http://www.indepthnews.info/index.php/global-issues/678-egypt-continues-march-to-democracy)

   

  As the January 23 deadline for the inauguration of Egypt’s … than under 30 years of Mubarak’s rule."

   

  Democracy aid causes military freak out

  Richter and Fleishman 11 (Paul, reporter in Washington, and Jeffrey, reporter in Cairo,  “U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way,” LA Times, 8-10, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811)

   

  Six months after pro-democracy protesters ousted longtime Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, … $40 million of the total $165 million has been distributed.

  The military will bash Israel – escalates to war

  Zahran 11 (Mudar, Palestinian writer, “Egypt's Military Council Toying with Israel,” Hudson Institute, 9-9, http://www.hudson-ny.org/2410/egypt-military-council-israel)

   

  While the Egyptian revolution was still boiling… Egyptian revolution have not called for a million-man-protests for this cause.

   

  Extinction

  Morgan 9 (Dennis Ray, Professor of Current Affairs – Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, South Korea, “World on Fire: Two Scenarios of the Destruction of Human Civilization and Possible Extinction of the Human Race”, Futures, 41(1), p. 685)

   

  In a remarkable website on nuclear war, Carol Moore asks the question … and fragile ecosphere as well.

   

   

  Orientalism K – 1NC

  The aff cements an orientalist  and securitized understanding of Arab revolutions causing inevitable backlash

  Ghannoushi 11 (Soumaya, researcher in the history of ideas at the School of Oriental and African Studies, “Obama, hands off our spring,” 5-26, www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/26/obama-hands-off-arab-spring)

   

  The US wants to turn the Arab revolutions into eastern Europe part 2. …  while occupying and aiding occupation.

  Orientalism makes war and genocide inevitable

  Batur 7 (Pinar – Vassar College, Handbook of the Sociology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, “Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide”)

   

  Albert Memmi argued that “We have no idea what the colonized would have been without colonization, …The 21st century opened up with genocide, in Darfur.

   

  Disorder and insecurity are inevitable.  Attempting to control danger is the impetus for global destruction

  Der Derian 98 (James, Professor of Political Science – University of Massachusetts, On Security, Ed. Lipschutz, p. 24-25)

   

  No other concept in international relations packs the metaphysical punch … and identities calcifying into a fearful sameness.

   

  Vote neg to reject the aff’s understanding of the world.  Flawed representations are the root cause of instability.  Only rejection solves.

  Bilgin 5 (Pinar, Assistant Prof of International Relations at Bilkent University, Regional Security in the Middle East:  A Critical Perspective, p12-)

   

  Although the ‘Middle East’ preserved its position as the dominant representation, … should be sought in this part of the world.

   

  COERCION – 1NC

  Democracy assistance steals from the taxpayer. Only the CP avoids the link.

  Vance, December 2000 (Laurence M. – freelance writer for the Future of Freedom Foundation, The Foreign Aid Debacle, Ludwig von Mises Institute, p. http://mises.org/freemarket_detail.aspx?control=334)

  Although foreign aid comes in many forms besides cold, … being taken without their consent.

  That undermines value to life and terminates in extinction.

  Rand 1963 (Ayn, The Virtue of Selfishness: A New Concept of Egoism, p. 145)

  A society that robs and individual of the product of his effort, … and incomparably preferable than existence in Soviet Russia or Nazi Germany.

   

  COERCION – 2NC

  Extinction is justified to protect liberty.

  Henry Shue, Professor of Ethics and Public Life, Princeton University, 1989,

  (Nuclear Deterrence and Moral Restraint, p. 64-5)

  The issue raises interesting problems about obligations among generations. … "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness," why should we as¬sume that the next generation would want only life?

  Util justifies nuclear conflict and all atrocities

  Jim Holt, commentator for the BBC, writes frequently about politics and philosophy, August 5, 1995, New York Times, “Morality, Reduced To Arithmetic,” p. Lexis

  Can the deliberate massacre of innocent people ever be condoned? … the bomb’s sinister legacy is plain: it has inured us to the idea of reducing innocents to instruments and morality to arithmetic.

   

  PRIVATE INVESTOR CP – 1NC

  The United States Federal Government should remove Internal Revenue Code Tax restrictions on private organization and public charity contributions to foreign non-governmental organizations that contribute to

  and offer a thirty-nine cent per dollar tax credit for private and business contributions providing support to democratic   .

   

  CP expands private democracy assistance and avoids backlash.

  Crimm, February 2005 (Nina – professor of law at St. John’s University School of Law, Democratization, Global grant-Making, and the Internal Revenue Code Lobbying Restriction, 79 Tul. L. Rev. 587, p. lexis)

  Political circumstances may militate against the U.S. government directly providing pecuniary support … "NGOs are the real DNA of democracy." n54

   

  CP solidifies U.S. public diplomacy. That solves vital internal links to terrorism.

  Jenkins, March 2007 (Garry – assistant professor of law at the Ohio State University Moritz College of Law, Soft Power, Strategic Security, and International Philanthropy, 85 N.C.L. Rev. 773, p. lexis)

  Another important means by which international philanthropic activity supports … the American story n78 and, ultimately, a part of modern diplomacy. n79

  Nuclear war.

  Ayson 10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand –  Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects”, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 33(7), July)

  A Catalytic Response: Dragging in the Major Nuclear Powers

  A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the use of nuclear weapons in response by the … This might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.

  Philanthropy prevents extinction and is key to the value of life.

  Remington, 11/27/2011 (Robert, Remington: Giving tied to human survival, Calgary Herald, p. http://www.calgaryherald.com/life/Giving+tied+human+survival/5773943/story.html)

  Remington: Giving tied to human survival Long before the three wise men …where it was used to create societal bonds, attract mates and elevate one's status in a community.

   

  PRIVATE INVESTOR CP – 2NC

   

  Perm “Both” - Links to the net benefits –

  --Government assistance costs taxpayer dollars. That’s Vance.

  --Increased assistance triggers the politics link.

  --Independent philanthropy solves public diplomacy and soft power. Federal association undermines image building. That’s Jenkins.

  No double solvency and turn – more aid results in a net loss of reform and sparks backlash.

  Goldsmith, Summer/Fall 2007 (Arthur - professor at the University of Massachusetts Boston and senior fellow at the John W. McCormack Graduate School of Policy Studies, Democratization in the 21st Century: What Can the United States Do?, The Whitehead Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations, Vol. 8, No. 2, p. 6-7)

  A final way outsiders can possibly encourage democratization …, changing political systems from the outside is a more imperfect science than generally acknowledged.

  Crowd-out effect – undermines private aid.

  Payne, July 2009 (A. Abigail – director of Public Economics Data Analysis laboratory at McMaster University, Does Government Funding Change Behavior? An Empirical Analysis of Crowd Out, Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 23, p. 159-161)

  In many instances, government funding … features that suggest that part of this crowd‐out is attributable to the institutions that deliver the charitable goods and services.

  Perm undermines the credibility of private aid – tanks solvency and the net benefit.

  Jenkins, March 2007 (Garry – assistant professor of law at the Ohio State University Moritz College of Law, Soft Power, Strategic Security, and International Philanthropy, 85 N.C.L. Rev. 773, p. lexis)

  [*826]  One of the key strengths of nonprofit institutions and a source of their effectiveness stems from their independence. … effectiveness and the independence of charitable organizations.

   

  Private aid solves better than government aid. This is Egypt specific.

  Graves, 12/10/2007 (Peter – former executive vice president at the International Center for Journalists, former senior media advisor at the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Bureau for Europe and Eurasia, U.S. Public and Private Funding of Independent Media Development Abroad, Center for International Media Assistance, p. 14)

  Private sector funding of independent media abroad, … in the Middle East, it has become more difficult to work with U.S. government funding.” 

  Private aid solves comparatively better than government aid in Egypt.

  Wethington, October 2011 (Olin – former US assistant secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, NGOs best placed to aid Egypt’s transition?, Democracy Digest, p. http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/10/ngos-best-placed-to-aid-egypt%E2%80%99s-transition/)

  While Egypt’s transition will necessarily be driven by local actors, …The job of democratic governments is to provide the resources that can make delivery of this aid possible.

  CP solves the signal of good will and generates soft power.

  Pozen, December 2006 (David – J.D. Yale Law School, Remapping the Charitable Deduction, 39 Conn. L. Rev. 531, p. lexis)

  On the other hand, increasing government aid at the expense of the charitable deduction … yet wholeheartedly-America supports the revolution.

   

  Turn – plan brands assistance – sparks backlash and undermines credibility

  Yacoubian, May 2005 (Mona – special adviser to the United states Institute of Peace’s Muslim World Initiative, member of the council on Foreign Relations, and an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Promoting Middle East Democracy II: Arab Initiatives, Special Report USIP 136, p. 15-16)

  U.S. Policy Recommendations • Bolstering U.S. credibility in the region … go beyond the purview of the traditional policymaking apparatus.

  CP solves visibility without linking to branding

  Jenkins, March 2007 (Garry – assistant professor of law at the Ohio State University Moritz College of Law, Soft Power, Strategic Security, and International Philanthropy, 85 N.C.L. Rev. 773, p. lexis)

  Nye primarily views international nonprofit organizations as attracting their own followers, giving them clout to influence governments. n98 … countries accrue reputational benefits to the United States.

  Expertise is a myth – no tangible solvency deficit.

  Carothers and Ottaway 2005 (Thomas – director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project at the Carnegie Endowment, and Marina – senior associate in the Democracy and the Rule of Law Project at the Carnegie Endowment, Uncharted Journey, The New Democracy Imperative, p. 10)

  A second problematic element of the debates …the political direction of other societies.

  USAID fails – no expertise

  Cohen and Küpçü, April 2009 (Michael A. - senior research fellow at the New America Foundation, and Maria Figueroa - former research fellow at the American Strategy Program, senior research fellow at the New America Foundation, Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Promotion, p. 10-11)

  The capacities of USAID have been significantly … is seriously compromised by this lack of technical staff.

  Local ownership DA –

  USAID destroys local ownership

  Carothers 10 (Thomas, Vice President for Studies @ Carnegie Endowment, "REVITALIZING U.S. DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE: THE CHALLENGE OF USAID," June 10, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/0610_testimony_carothers.pdf)

  Bureaucratization: USAID’s basic operating procedures are …hard on democracy aid.

  This turn outweighs aff solvency.

  Carothers 2009 (Thomas – vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Revitalizing U.S. Democracy Assistance, p. 26)

  This systematic externality of the assistance process creates … the legitimacy of such efforts will be questioned.

  The CP eventually forces federal modeling of the plan.

  Kapur and Whittle, Summer 2010 (Devesh – director of the Center for Advanced Study of India, and Dennis- founder and chief executive officer of Global Giving, Can the Privatization of Foreign Aid Enhance Accountability?, 42 N.Y.U. J. Int’l L. & Pol. 1143, p. lexis)

  A more fruitful approach is for private aid to do things in a way that … difficult for the government to ignore the feedback of its own citizens.

   

  Japan prolif doesn’t escalate

  Sapolsky 97 (Harvard, Professor of Public Policy and Organization – Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Eugune Gholz and Daryl Press, Doctoral Candidates – MIT, “Come Home, America”, International Security, Spring)

   

  Despite the favorable Asian conventional balances… decide to pursue their own deterrent forces.

  No tech to prolif

  Endo 7 (Tetsuya, Former Vice Chairman – Atomic Energy Commission of Japan, “How Realistic Is a Nuclear-Armed Japan?”, 8-23, Policy Forum Online, http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/07063Endo.html)

   

  Technologically, Japan is …produce one or two nuclear bombs and arming oneself with nuclear weapons "effectively".

  No Testing

  Yokota 9 (Takashi, Associate Editor – Newsweek Japan, “The N Word: Why Japan won’t go nuclear,” Newsweek, 6-22, http://www.newsweek.com/id/201859)

   

   

  For another, Japan—a crowded island nation… damage relations with Washington—Tokyo's most important ally—and the alarm in Beijing and Seoul could set off a nuclear race across East Asia. Japan would get the blame. 

  Resources

  Endo 7 (Tetsuya, Former Vice Chairman – Atomic Energy Commission of Japan, “How Realistic Is a Nuclear-Armed Japan?”, 8-23, Policy Forum Online, http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/07063Endo.html)

   

  Tetsuya Endo, former vice chairman of the Atomic Energy …  interest of Japan and far from a realistic policy choice."

   

  CP avoids political backlash.

  Pozen, December 2006 (David – J.D. Yale Law School, Remapping the Charitable Deduction, 39 Conn. L. Rev. 531, p. lexis)

  Subjectively, although certain Americans may be … such as environmental protection and human rights, two mainstays of INGO activity, n219 are much more diffuse in their benefits.

   

  Yes WMD terrorism –

  Means

  Bunn, November 2008 (Matthew – associate professor of public policy at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Securing the Bomb 2008, p. v)

  Terrorists are still seeking nuclear weapons— and al-Qaeda is reconstituting … including the United States, has more to do to ensure that they are effectively secured.

  Delivery

  Allison and Kokoshin, Fall 2002 (Graham – professor of government and former director of the Belfer Center at Harvard University, and Andrei – member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, The New Containment, The National Interest, p. lexis)

  As Robert Walpole, a National Intelligence Officer, …, put it: "If you can smuggle heroin in containers, you may be able to smuggle in a nuclear bomb."

  Motive

  Bunn, November 2008 (Matthew – associate professor of public policy at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Securing the Bomb 2008, p. 4-5)

  Do terrorists want nuclear weapons? … “to develop and detonate a nuclear weapon” are likely to be “tested” in “the early years of the 21st century.”10

  Perm “DO CP” Severs – the CP does not guarantee assistance. It is dependent on the willingness of private actors to participate.

  Definitions –

  Substantial means a definite increase.

  Words and Phrases 64 (40W&P 759)

  The words" outward, open, actual, visible, substantial,…  undivided; sole; opposed to inclusive.

  Increase means “to make greater, as in number, size, strength, or quality; augment; add to: to increase taxes.”– Random House Dictionary 2010.

  Its means ownership.

  English Grammar 5 (Glossary of English Grammar Terms, http://www.usingenglish.com/glossary/possessive-pronoun.html)

  Mine, yours, his, hers, its, ours, theirs are …  (Mine substitutes the word disk and shows that it belongs to me.)

  Democracy assistance must be expertise and funds.

  Lappin 10 (Richard, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade, “What we talk about when we talk about Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,” Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, Vol 4, Issue 1, 2010)

  Democracy assistance can be most accurately defined as the … including electoral commissions, state institutions, civil society groups, media groups and political parties. 

  Severing the provision of assistance allows the aff to perm CPs that ban the aff or impound the assistance. Crushes core neg ground and uniqueness CPs.

   

  CREDIBILITY ADVANTAGE – 1NC

  This advantage is laughable – China won’t perceive democracy assistance as being tough on Egypt. That proves that the status quo solves because we have already asked for democracy, and democracy assistance is ineffective.

  US cred impossible

  Katulis 9 (Brian - senior fellow at American Progress, Democracy Promotion in the Middle East and the Obama Administration, The Century Foundation, p. 8-9)

  Actions speak louder than words….  on the democracy promotion front are perceived throughout the Middle East.

   

  Democracy assistance crushes US influence – goes too far

  Cook 11 (Steven A., Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, The U.S.-Egyptian Breakup, Foreign Affairs, 2-2, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67347/steven-a-cook/the-us-egyptian-breakup)

   

  Policy analysts and democracy-promotion specialists … of Gaza and on Egypt's relationship with Iran.

   

  No solvency – neutrality –

   

  --US will pick winners

  Cook 11 (Steven A. - Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, America Shouldn’t Hijack Egypt’s Revolution, Foreign Policy, 3-9, p. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/09/america_shouldnt_hijack_egypts_revolution)

   

  Even if Washington pledges its total neutrality … Muslim Brotherhood's democratic bona fides.

   

  --That destroys credibility

  Carothers 11 (Thomas, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “How Not To Promote Democracy In Egypt,” Washington Post, 2-24, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/02/24/how-not-to-promote-democracy-in-egypt/156)

   

  As the U.S. government assesses the uprisings across the … certain candidates or parties during the various elections since 2005.

   

  US and China Not zero-sum in Egypt

  Pardo 11 (Dr. Ramon, Expert on Counter-proliferation and Counter-terrorism, Lecturer – King's College London, and Associate – King's China Institute, “The Dragon Eyes the Arab Spring,” Majalla, 5-31, http://www.al-majalla.com/en/ideas/article359548.ece)

   

  China has an interest in halting links between terrorist networks present … them take the most difficult decisions.

   

  -- Encroachment now – doesn’t cause war

  FT 9-14 (Foreign Times, US and Australia tighten military ties, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/11a19e2a-dee6-11e0-9130-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Y0RiR7a1)

   

  China’s military has repeatedly warned Washington not to interfere in … co-operation was aimed at China, China is not going to express concern.”

   

  -- Competition with China over energy is inevitable

  Luke Mohr, “Clean Energy & Conservation Viewed as Intelligent Living”, 3/11/2011

   

  Increases in global health and living conditions of the world’s poor comes with a caveat—…Clean energy and conservation need to be viewed as intelligent living and not as bohemian notions.

   

  China isn’t a threat --- conservatives blow a hypothetical Chinese conflict way out of proportion

  Guardiano, 10 – Writer and analyst who focuses on political, military, and public-policy issues (John Guardiano, “Overstating the China Threat,” FrumForum, 5-13, http://www.frumforum.com/overstating-the-china-threat)

   

  Devore, in fact, has it exactly backwards: We have to prepare for the real enemy, … Time to modernize our thinking. Now.

   

  -- No US/China war – relations are stable – and economics checks

  Sargent 8 (Sara, Business Reporter – Medill News Service, “China Space Launch Raises Fears”, UPI, 10-3, Lexis)

   

  In January 2007 China conducted its first successful anti-satellite weapons test by …and other experts agree that war is an exceptionally unlikely scenario.

  -- Won’t go nuclear

  PPG 4 (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Pennsylvania), 9-29, Lexis)

   

  U.S. military capacity is now so overstretched by …The million-man People's Liberation Army isn't portable. The Chinese are definitely not into terrorism.

   

   

  STABILITY ADVANTAGE – 1NC

  Egypt is stable now and small cases of instability don’t deny a smooth transition

  Al-Majid 1-18-12 (Dr. Hamad, Journalist and Former Member of the Official Saudi National Organization for Human Rights, "Has the prediction of ‘Arab Spring’ chaos failed?", http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2012/01/18/188994.html)

   

  Almost a year has passed since the fall of two established … his bed following a successful heart operation.

   

  Status quo solves

  Peters 11 (Anne Mariel, assistant professor in the department of government at Wesleyan University, “Why Obama shouldn't increase democracy aid to Egypt,” Foreign Policy, 2-14, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/why_obama_shouldn_t_increase_democracy_aid_to_egypt)

   

  The United States should promote democracy in Egypt, … decide to hold on to power, there is little that democracy and governance funding can do.

   

  Democracy aid fails

  Peters 11 (Anne Mariel, assistant professor in the department of government at Wesleyan University, “Why Obama shouldn't increase democracy aid to Egypt,” Foreign Policy, 2-14, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/why_obama_shouldn_t_increase_democracy_aid_to_egypt)

   

  Returning to the big picture, the most fundamental problem with … "democracy and governance" will not mean more democracy in Egypt.

   

  Aid causes public backlash – NGOs will reject it

  Strasser 11 (Max, editorial researcher – Foreign Policy, “Egypt warns of foreign meddling as US pushes on with democracy programs,” 5-7, http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/474767)

   

  As Egypt prepares for its first free and fair parliamentary …government’s back. “We do tell them everything,” the official said.

  Middle East war doesn’t escalate

  Maloney 7 (Suzanne, Senior Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Steve Cook, Fellow – Council on Foreign Relations, and Ray Takeyh, Fellow – Council for Foreign Relations, “Why the Iraq War Won’t Engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune, 6-28, http://www.brookings.edu/views/op-ed/maloney20070629.htm)

  Long before the Bush administration began selling … civil strife and prevent local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East.

  Won’t go nuclear

  Dyer 2 (Gwynne, Ph.D. in War Studies – University of London and Board of Governors – Canada’s Royal Military College, The Coming War, Queen’s Quarterly, December, Lexis)

   

  All of this indicates an extremely dangerous situation, with… we are out of the business.

   

  Iran will not be aggressive – they will back down from direct confrontation.

  Savyon, 11 (Ayelet – director of the Iranian Media Project at the Middle East Media Research Institute, Iran’s Defeat in Bahrain, 7/4, p. http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5424.htm)

   

  Despite its image as a looming superpower, … This will have ramifications on both the regional and the global levels.

  Iran won’t be aggressive – too many checks in the system

  Boroujerdi 7 (Mehrzad, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program, “Iranian Nuclear Miasma”, Syracuse Law Review, 57 Syracuse L. Rev. 619, Lexis)

   

  The potential for groupthink … makes the prospect of Iran engaging in a boldly offensive or miscalculated action less realistic.

   

  STABILITY ADVANTAGE – 2NC

   

  --Empirically proven in Egypt

  Peters 11 (Anne Mariel, assistant professor in the department of government at Wesleyan University, “Why Obama shouldn't increase democracy aid to Egypt,” Foreign Policy, 2-14, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/why_obama_shouldn_t_increase_democracy_aid_to_egypt)

   

  The new Obama administration then terminated USAID's direct-grants program … of U.S.-assisted courts with better case management.

   

  US aid causes backlash

  Cook 11 (Steven A., Hasib J. Sabbagh senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, The U.S.-Egyptian Breakup, Foreign Affairs, 2-2, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67347/steven-a-cook/the-us-egyptian-breakup)

   

  An aggressive American effort in Egypt also …  is likely to embitter all parties involved.

   

  Perception outweighs reality – even seemingly benign aid causes backlash

  Hamid 11 (Shadi - director of research at the Brookings Doha Center, The Struggle for Middle East Democracy, Cairo Review of Global Affairs, 4-26, p. http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx)

   

  In September 2010, I asked a senior figure in Ayman Nour’s Al-Ghad … hating it for falling so short.

  
  
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