Egypt – 1AC
The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its assistance in legal education and civil society building for the Arab Republic of Egypt
Contention 1 is Credibility
Obama’s ambiguity over Egyptian assistance guts US credibility – a consistent and credible push for judicial training restores our perception abroad
Guirguis 9 (Dina, Fellow for Near East Policy – Washington Institute and Executive Director – Voices for a Democratic Egypt, “Promoting Democracy in Egypt,” Eurasia Critic, July, http://www.eurasiacritic.com/articles/promoting-democracy-egypt)
"In the aftermath of President Obama's historic speech delivered from Cairo last month, many are still left "
AND
"ramifications for the entire Middle East."
US credibility is already taking a hit – Obama needs to fulfill the goals laid out in his Cairo speech to reverse this perception
Zeitvogel 7-13 (Karin, Correspondent Agence France-Presse, “Arab world's ratings of Obama, US plummet: poll,” 7-13, Online)
"Two years after US President Barack Obama called in a groundbreaking speech from Cairo for a "new beginning" "
AND
"polled said they saw the United States in a good light. The lowest rating came from Egypt a mere five percent."
The plan immediately reverses negative perceptions of Obama – it gives him a major foreign policy win that restores his credibility
Lane 11 (Charles, Economic Policy Specialist and Editorial Writer – Washington Post, “Obama's Egypt opportunity,” Washington Post, 2-13, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/11/AR2011021106636.html)
"From its beginning, the crisis in Egypt has reminded many Americans of similar events a generation ago in Iran, "
AND
"enough to warrant a major investment of his administration's time and energy in Egypt over the rest of his term."
Egypt is a testing ground for Obama’s credibility – a strong push for democracy is critical
Hamid 10 (Shadi, Deputy Director and Middle East Policy Fellow – Brookings Center, “The Cairo Conundrum,” Democracy Journal, Issue 15, Winter, http://www.democracyjournal.org/pdf/15/Hamid.pdf)
"In his June 4, 2009 speech at Cairo University, President Barack Obama dramatically raised expectations for U.S. "
AND
Rhetoric raises expectations, forcing us at least to consider the prospect of meeting them.
Outweighs all alt causes – Egypt gives Obama valuable foreign policy cards
Young, 8/25/2011 (Michael – opinion page editor for the Daily Star and author of The Ghosts of Martyrs Square, Arab Spring gives US a new chance in the Middle East, The National, p. http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/arab-spring-gives-us-a-new-chance-in-the-middle-east?pageCount=0)
"Barack Obama has not faced the continuing revolutions in the Arab world with any passion. Rather, the US president has "
AND
"inspiring, the thrilling, can ambitiously redefine America's long-term interaction with an Arab world in thrilling flux."
Two impacts –
First, Obama’s credibility presidential consistency is key to reverse the perception of indecisiveness and combat global aggression
Bolton 9 (John R., Senior Fellow – American Enterprise Institute and Former U.S. Ambassador – United Nations, “The Danger of Obama’s Dithering”, Los Angeles Times, 10-18,
http://articles.latimes.com/2009/oct/18/opinion/oe-bolton18)
"Weakness in American foreign policy in one region often invites challenges elsewhere, because our adversaries "
AND
"persistence in the face of criticism and adversity, engagement simply embodies weakness and indecision."
Obama’s weakness causes global instability – Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and India, Russia, China all lash out
Hanson 9 (Victor Davis, Senior Fellow in Classics and Military History – Hoover Institution, “Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Pajamas Media, 12-7, http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/change-weakness-disaster-obama-answers-from-victor-davis-hanson/)
"BC: Are we currently sending a message of weakness to our foes and allies? Can anything good result from "
AND
"tiger and now no one quite knows whom it will bite or when."
Iranian prolif escalates to nuclear war
Sokolsky 3 (Henry, Exec Dir – Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, Policy Review, 10-1, Lexis)
"If nothing is done to shore up U.S. and allied security relations with the Gulf Coordination Council states and with "
AND
"disturbingly similar to that of 1914 but with one big difference: It would be spring-loaded to go nuclear."
Indo/Pak conflict can quickly erupt - the ensuing nuclear conflict ensures nuclear winter
Robock 10 (Alan, Professor of Climatology – Rutgers University and Associate Director – Center for Environmental Prediction “Local War, Global Suffering,” Scientific American, January, http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockToonSciAmJan2010.pdf)
Abolition: The Only Policy
AND
"potential to erupt suddenly."
China/India conflict escalates into global great power conflict
Darling 10 (Daniel, International Military Markets Analyst – Forecast International Inc., “Will the Indian Ocean Become the Next Arena of Great Power Conflict?”, The Faster Times, 5-4, http://thefastertimes.com/defensespen ding/2010/03/24/will-the-indian-ocean-become-the-next-arena-of-great-power-conflict/)
"As the global balance of power continues to shift from west to east, so too do the intermingling pressures that brought "
AND
"good a place to start as any."
Iranian adventurism sparks nuclear war
Ben-Meir 7 (Alon – professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs, Ending iranian defiance, United Press International, 2-6, p. lexis)
"That Iran stands today able to challenge or even defy the United States in every sphere of American influence in the Middle East attests to the "
AND
"regional implications, Washington is left with no choice but to warn Iran of the severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program."
Second, US Credibility – loss of credibility permanently crushes overall soft power – unconditional assistance is key
Byron 11 (“Soft Power in the Middle East: Reforming American Foreign Policy,” Press Storm, 3-11, http://www.presstorm.com/2011/03/soft-power-in-the-middle-east-reforming-american-foreign-policy/)
"The lack of a consistently supportive stance on democratic revolution in the Middle East threatens to undermine "
AND
"power of citizen diplomacy and international friendship."
Soft power builds effective coalitions that solves terrorism, disease, environment, and WMD war
Reiss 8 (Mitchell B., Vice Provost of International Affairs – College of William & Mary, “Restoring America's Image: What the Next President Can Do”, Survival, October, 50(5))
"But first, there is another question to be answered: why should Americans care if the United States is liked or not? "
AND
"security."
Also, soft power is key to US hegemony
Sen 5 (Sankar, Former Director – Indian National Police Academy, The Statesman, 4-5, Lexis)
"Indeed anti-American sentiment is sweeping the world after the Iraq war. It has, of course, been aggravated by the "
AND
"American pre-eminence."
Collapse of leadership causes global nuclear war
Kagan 11 (Robert, Senior Associate – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “The Price of Power”, The Weekly Standard, 1-24, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533695.html?nopager=1)
"Today the international situation is also one of high risk. • The terrorists who would like to kill Americans on U.S. "
AND
"that you can pull a leg out from under a table and the table will not fall over. "
Contention 2 is Independent Judiciary, or IJ
Egypt’s judiciary is incomplete – legal practices damages its independence
El Chazli 10 (Foutouh, Lecturer in Law – University of Alexandria, “Egypt: The Independence of the Judiciary,” Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Network, June, Online)
"It is true that things are better for the judicial authority’s independence in Egypt than in most neighbouring "
AND
"and rulings, even rulings handed down by the state security courts, are not being respected."
Mubarak’s fall doesn’t change anything – the judiciary is still corrupt
El Fegiery 11 (Moataz, Deputy Director – MENA Program – International Center for Transitional Justice, “Save Egypt’s judiciary, and revolution,” Daily Star, 8-9, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2011/Aug-09/Save-Egypts-judiciary-and-revolution.ashx#axzz1WAkzpo8F)
"The appearance of Hosni Mubarak in the opening of his trial last week reassured millions of Egyptians that their revolutionary struggle was not "
AND
"political will to investigate these crimes and hold perpetrators accountable, despite calls from civil society to do so."
Providing legal education to Egyptian NGOs creates a bottom-up approach that promotes accountability within the system – top-down approaches are doomed to failure
Mednicoff 5 (David M., Assistant Professor in the Department of Legal Studies and the Center for Public Policy and Administration – University of Massachusetts–Amherst “Legalism Sans Frontières? U.S. Rule-of-Law Aid in the Arab World,” Carnegie Papers, 61, September, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/CP61.Mednicoff.FINAL.pdf)
"Nonetheless, Arab lawyers and U.S. experts with whom I have spoken tend to agree that programs geared toward "
AND
"Washington’s efforts."
NGOs promote effective judicial training – they are separate from military control
Aftandilian 9 (Gregory L., Former Middle East Analyst – US State Department, Former Research Fellow – Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, and International Affairs Fellow – Council on Foreign Relations, “Looking Forward: An Integrated Strategy for Supporting Democracy and Human Rights in Egypt,” Project on Middle East Democracy, May, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/looking-forward.pdf)
Despite the restricted political atmosphere
AND
will help build democracy over the longterm.
Legal assistance generates on-the-ground expertise that boosts the cultural reception of the plan and makes future reform successful – US expertise is key
Mednicoff 5 (David M., Assistant Professor in the Department of Legal Studies and the Center for Public Policy and Administration – University of Massachusetts–Amherst “Legalism Sans Frontières? U.S. Rule-of-Law Aid in the Arab World,” Carnegie Papers, 61, September, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/CP61.Mednicoff.FINAL.pdf)
"One response to the formidable challenges to U.S.-based rule-of-law work in Arab countries is to cede the terrain of reform to indigenous Arab "
AND
"connect directly with a wider range of people than judges over a sustained period of time if possible."
IJ is critical to democracy – it ensures free elections, social order, and respect of rights
Palmer 6 (Dr. Tom, Senior Fellow – Cato Institute and a Doctorate in Political Science – Oxford University, “The Egyptian Judiciary Blazing the Path to Democracy and Economic Development,” Cato Institute, 5-31, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6411)
"The world is watching Egypt. It holds the key to the flourishing of the Arabs. For the Egyptian protestors are "
AND
"the promises of an autocrat are never completely credible.""
Egyptian instability is high – democracy creates stability that challenges theocracy
Brown 9-12 (Stephen, Contributing Editor, “Goodbye Egypt, Hello Iran,” Front Page Magazine, 2011, http://frontpagemag.com/2011/09/12/goodbye-egypt-hello-iran/)
"While the elections meant to turn Egypt into a democracy are yet to be held, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is "
AND
"renting businesses on resort beaches."
Egyptian instability causes conflict in the Mediterranean, Africa, and Middle East - collapsing the Suez Canal
Copley 11 (Gregory O., Editor – Global Information System and Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, “Strategic Ramifications of the Egyptian Crisis”, World Tribune, 2-1, http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/ WTARC/2011/me_egypt0088_02_01.asp)
"In the preface to the Defense & Foreign Affairs Handbook on Egypt, in 1995, I noted: If Egypt remains strong, and "
AND
"leadership to bridge the transition until the re-emergence of a charismatic leader."
Middle East war causes global nuclear war
Primakov 9 (Yevgeny, President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry – Russian Federation, Member – Russian Academy of Science, “The Middle East Problem in the Context of International Relations”, Russia in Global Affairs, 3, July/September, http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/n_13593)
"The Middle East conflict is unparalleled in terms of its potential for spreading globally. During the Cold War, amid which the "
AND
"such a possibility."
Shutdown of the Suez Canal causes economic collapse
PE 11 (Peak Effect, “Suez Canal Oil Choke Point,” 1-29, http://www.thepeakeffect.com/2011/01/suez-canal-oil-choke-point.html)
"Why the recent developments in Egypt can send the world in recession or worst. Egypt can seem a Middle East or "
AND
"much to re-establish supplies would cause devastating damage to an already feeble economy."
Economic collapse causes extinction
Auslin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)
"What do these trends mean in the short and medium term? The Great Depression showed how social and global chaos followed hard on "
AND
"what they are doing. The result may be a series of small explosions that coalesce into a big bang. "
Egypt gets modeled – promotes global democracy
Salem 11 (Mohamed Anis, Director – Development Works and Coordinator – UN Working Group in the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, “Return of the Egyptian model?”, 3/10, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1038/op201.htm)
"Taken together, there was not much left in Mubarak's model that would attract public admiration let alone emulation. Then "
AND
"expert predictions abound. "
Democracy’s on the brink - consolidation solves global WMD conflict
Halperin 11 (Morton H., Senior Advisor – Open Society Institute and Senior Vice President of the Center for American Progress, “Unconventional Wisdom – Democracy is Still Worth Fighting For”, Foreign Policy, January / February, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/02/unconventional_wisdom?page=0,11)
As the United States struggles to wind down two wars
AND
of those struggling for their rights. Nor should we doubt that America would be more secure if they succeed.
