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Georgia Beyer-Shanker

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11/04/11
  • Egypt 1AC

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:



    • Plan

      The United States Federal Government should substantially increase legal clinics in Egypt

      Contention 1 is Credibility

      Obama’s ambiguity over Egyptian assistance guts US credibility – a consistent and credible push for judicial training restores our perception abroad
      Guirguis 9 (Dina, Fellow for Near East Policy – Washington Institute and Executive Director – Voices for a Democratic Egypt, “Promoting Democracy in Egypt,” Eurasia Critic, July, http://www.eurasiacritic.com/articles/promoting-democracy-egypt)

      "In the aftermath of President Obama's historic speech delivered from Cairo last month, many are still left "
      AND
      "ramifications for the entire Middle East."

      US credibility is already taking a hit – Obama needs to fulfill the goals laid out in his Cairo speech to reverse this perception
      Zeitvogel 7-13 (Karin, Correspondent  Agence France-Presse, “Arab world's ratings of Obama, US plummet: poll,” 7-13, Online)

      "Two years after US President Barack Obama called in a groundbreaking speech from Cairo for a "new beginning" "
      AND
      "polled said they saw the United States in a good light.  The lowest rating came from Egypt  a mere five percent."

      The plan immediately reverses negative perceptions of Obama – it gives him a major foreign policy win that restores his credibility
      Lane 11 (Charles, Economic Policy Specialist and Editorial Writer – Washington Post, “Obama's Egypt opportunity,” Washington Post, 2-13, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/11/AR2011021106636.html)

      "From its beginning, the crisis in Egypt has reminded many Americans of similar events a generation ago in Iran, "
      AND
      "enough to warrant a major investment of his administration's time and energy in Egypt over the rest of his term."

      Egypt is a testing ground for Obama’s credibility – a strong push for democracy is critical
      Hamid 10 (Shadi, Deputy Director and Middle East Policy Fellow – Brookings Center, “The Cairo Conundrum,” Democracy Journal, Issue 15, Winter, http://www.democracyjournal.org/pdf/15/Hamid.pdf)

      "In his June 4, 2009 speech at Cairo University, President Barack Obama dramatically raised expectations for U.S. "
      AND
      Rhetoric raises expectations, forcing us at least to consider the prospect of  meeting them.

      Outweighs all alt causes – Egypt gives Obama valuable foreign policy cards
      Young, 8/25/2011 (Michael – opinion page editor for the Daily Star and author of The Ghosts of Martyrs Square, Arab Spring gives US a new chance in the Middle East, The National, p. http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/arab-spring-gives-us-a-new-chance-in-the-middle-east?pageCount=0)

      "Barack Obama has not faced the continuing revolutions in the Arab world with any passion. Rather, the US president has "
      AND
      "inspiring, the thrilling, can ambitiously redefine America's long-term interaction with an Arab world in thrilling flux."

      Two impacts –

      First, Obama’s credibility  presidential consistency is key to reverse the perception of indecisiveness and combat global aggression
      Bolton 9 (John R., Senior Fellow – American Enterprise Institute and Former U.S. Ambassador – United Nations, “The Danger of Obama’s Dithering”, Los Angeles Times, 10-18,
      http://articles.latimes.com/2009/oct/18/opinion/oe-bolton18)

      "Weakness in American foreign policy in one region often invites challenges elsewhere, because our adversaries "
      AND
      "persistence in the face of criticism and adversity, engagement simply embodies weakness and indecision."

      Obama’s weakness causes global instability – Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and India, Russia, China all lash out
      Hanson 9 (Victor Davis, Senior Fellow in Classics and Military History – Hoover Institution, “Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama: Answers from Victor Davis Hanson,” Pajamas Media, 12-7, http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/change-weakness-disaster-obama-answers-from-victor-davis-hanson/)

      "BC: Are we currently sending a message of weakness to our foes and allies? Can anything good result from "
      AND
      "tiger and now no one quite knows whom it will bite or when."

      Iranian prolif escalates to nuclear war
      Sokolsky 3 (Henry, Exec Dir – Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, Policy Review, 10-1, Lexis)

      "If nothing is done to shore up U.S. and allied security relations with the Gulf Coordination Council states and with "
      AND
      "disturbingly similar to that of 1914 but with one big difference: It would be spring-loaded to go nuclear."

      Indo/Pak conflict can quickly erupt - the ensuing nuclear conflict ensures nuclear winter
      Robock 10 (Alan, Professor of Climatology – Rutgers University and Associate Director – Center for Environmental Prediction “Local War, Global Suffering,” Scientific American, January, http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockToonSciAmJan2010.pdf)

      Abolition: The Only Policy
      AND
      "potential to erupt suddenly."

      China/India conflict escalates into global great power conflict
      Darling 10 (Daniel, International Military Markets Analyst – Forecast International Inc., “Will the Indian Ocean Become the Next Arena of Great Power Conflict?”, The Faster Times, 5-4, http://thefastertimes.com/defensespen ding/2010/03/24/will-the-indian-ocean-become-the-next-arena-of-great-power-conflict/)

      "As the global balance of power continues to shift from west to east, so too do the intermingling pressures that brought "
      AND
      "good a place to start as any."

      Iranian adventurism sparks nuclear war
      Ben-Meir 7 (Alon – professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs, Ending iranian defiance, United Press International, 2-6, p. lexis)

      "That Iran stands today able to challenge or even defy the United States in every sphere of American influence in the Middle East attests to the "
      AND
      "regional implications, Washington is left with no choice but to warn Iran of the severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program."

      Second, US Credibility – loss of credibility permanently crushes overall soft power – unconditional assistance is key
      Byron 11 (“Soft Power in the Middle East: Reforming American Foreign Policy,” Press Storm, 3-11, http://www.presstorm.com/2011/03/soft-power-in-the-middle-east-reforming-american-foreign-policy/)

      "The lack of a consistently supportive stance on democratic revolution in the Middle East threatens to undermine "
      AND
      "power of citizen diplomacy and international friendship."

      Soft power builds effective coalitions that solves terrorism, disease, environment, and WMD war
      Reiss 8 (Mitchell B., Vice Provost of International Affairs – College of William & Mary, “Restoring America's Image: What the Next President Can Do”, Survival, October, 50(5))

      "But first, there is another question to be answered: why should Americans care if the United States is liked or not? "
      AND
      "security."

      Disease spread causes extinction
      Scotsman 95 (9-11, “The Mega Death”, p. 13, Lexis)

      Bullets and bombs may be the weapons
      AND
      to engage in biological warfare.

      Eco collapse causes extinction
      Jayawardena 9 (Asitha, London South Bank University, “We Are a Threat to All Life on Earth”, Indicator, 7-17, http://www.indicator.org.uk/?p=55)

      Sloep and Van Dam-Mieras (1995) explain in detail why
      AND
      expecting surprises and adapting to these.’ 

      Terrorism causes extinction
      Ayson 10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand –  Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects”, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 33(7), July)

      A Catalytic Response: Dragging in the
      AND
      the latter found itself unable or unwilling to provide. 

      Also, soft power is key to US hegemony
      Sen 5 (Sankar, Former Director – Indian National Police Academy, The Statesman, 4-5, Lexis)

      "Indeed anti-American sentiment is sweeping the world after the Iraq war. It has, of course, been aggravated by the "
      AND
      "American pre-eminence."

      Collapse of leadership causes global nuclear war
      Kagan 11 (Robert, Senior Associate – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “The Price of Power”, The Weekly Standard, 1-24, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533695.html?nopager=1)

      "Today the international situation is also one of high risk.  • The terrorists who would like to kill Americans on U.S. "
      AND
      "that you can pull a leg out from under a table and the table will not fall over. "

      Contention 2 is Independent Judiciary, or IJ

      Egypt’s judiciary is incomplete – legal practices damages its independence
      El Chazli 10 (Foutouh, Lecturer in Law – University of Alexandria, “Egypt: The Independence of the Judiciary,” Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Network, June, Online)

      "It is true that things are better for the judicial authority’s independence in Egypt than in most neighbouring "
      AND
      "and rulings, even rulings handed down by the state security courts, are not being respected."

      Mubarak’s fall doesn’t change anything – the judiciary is still corrupt
      El Fegiery 11 (Moataz, Deputy Director – MENA Program – International Center for Transitional Justice, “Save Egypt’s judiciary, and revolution,” Daily Star, 8-9, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2011/Aug-09/Save-Egypts-judiciary-and-revolution.ashx#axzz1WAkzpo8F)

      "The appearance of Hosni Mubarak in the opening of his trial last week reassured millions of Egyptians that their revolutionary struggle was not "
      AND
      "political will to investigate these crimes and hold perpetrators accountable, despite calls from civil society to do so."

      Providing legal education to Egyptian NGOs creates a bottom-up approach that promotes accountability within the system – top-down approaches are doomed to failure
      Mednicoff 5 (David M., Assistant Professor in the Department of Legal Studies and the Center for Public Policy and Administration – University of Massachusetts–Amherst “Legalism Sans Frontières? U.S. Rule-of-Law Aid in the Arab World,” Carnegie Papers, 61, September, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/CP61.Mednicoff.FINAL.pdf)

      "Nonetheless, Arab lawyers and U.S. experts with whom I have spoken tend to agree that  programs geared toward "
      AND
      "Washington’s efforts."

      NGOs promote effective judicial training – they are separate from military control
      Aftandilian 9 (Gregory L., Former Middle East Analyst – US State Department, Former Research Fellow – Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, and International Affairs Fellow – Council on Foreign Relations, “Looking Forward: An Integrated Strategy for Supporting Democracy and Human Rights in Egypt,” Project on Middle East Democracy, May, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/looking-forward.pdf)

      Despite the restricted political atmosphere
      AND
      will help build democracy over the longterm.

      Legal assistance generates on-the-ground expertise that boosts the cultural reception of the plan and makes future reform successful – US expertise is key
      Mednicoff 5 (David M., Assistant Professor in the Department of Legal Studies and the Center for Public Policy and Administration – University of Massachusetts–Amherst “Legalism Sans Frontières? U.S. Rule-of-Law Aid in the Arab World,” Carnegie Papers, 61, September, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/CP61.Mednicoff.FINAL.pdf)

      "One response to the formidable challenges to U.S.-based rule-of-law work in Arab countries is to cede the terrain of reform to indigenous Arab "
      AND
      "connect directly with a wider range of people than judges over a sustained period of time if possible."

      IJ is critical to democracy – it ensures free elections, social order, and respect of rights
      Palmer 6 (Dr. Tom, Senior Fellow – Cato Institute and a Doctorate in Political Science – Oxford University, “The Egyptian Judiciary Blazing the Path to Democracy and Economic Development,” Cato Institute, 5-31, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6411)

      "The world is watching Egypt. It holds the key to the flourishing of the Arabs. For the Egyptian protestors are "
      AND
      "the promises of an autocrat are never completely credible.""

      Egyptian instability is high – democracy creates stability that challenges theocracy
      Brown 9-12 (Stephen, Contributing Editor, “Goodbye Egypt, Hello Iran,” Front Page Magazine, 2011, http://frontpagemag.com/2011/09/12/goodbye-egypt-hello-iran/) 

      "While the elections meant to turn Egypt into a democracy are yet to be held, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is "
      AND
      "renting businesses on resort beaches."

      Egyptian instability causes conflict in the Mediterranean, Africa, and Middle East - collapsing the Suez Canal
      Copley 11 (Gregory O., Editor – Global Information System and Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, “Strategic Ramifications of the Egyptian Crisis”, World Tribune, 2-1, http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/ WTARC/2011/me_egypt0088_02_01.asp)

      "In the preface to the Defense & Foreign Affairs Handbook on Egypt, in 1995, I noted: If Egypt remains strong, and "
      AND
      "leadership to bridge the transition until the re-emergence of a charismatic leader."

      Middle East war causes global nuclear war
      Primakov 9 (Yevgeny, President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry – Russian Federation, Member – Russian Academy of Science, “The Middle East Problem in the Context of International Relations”, Russia in Global Affairs, 3, July/September, http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/n_13593)

      "The Middle East conflict is unparalleled in terms of its potential for spreading globally. During the Cold War, amid which the "
      AND
      "such a possibility."

      Shutdown of the Suez Canal causes economic collapse
      PE 11 (Peak Effect, “Suez Canal Oil Choke Point,” 1-29, http://www.thepeakeffect.com/2011/01/suez-canal-oil-choke-point.html)

      "Why the recent developments in Egypt can send the world in recession or worst. Egypt can seem a Middle East or "
      AND
      "much to re-establish supplies would cause devastating damage to an already feeble economy."

      Economic collapse causes extinction
      Auslin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)

      "What do these trends mean in the short and medium term? The Great Depression showed how social and global chaos followed hard on "
      AND
      "what they are doing. The result may be a series of small explosions that coalesce into a big bang. "



10/10/11
  • 1AC Palestine Statehood Adv

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Liberty 


    • In a few weeks, Palestine will win its statehood at the UN. Even if a Security Council vote fails, Palestine will win a General Assembly vote.
      Business Week, 9/26/2011 (Palestinians Fight ‘Tremendous Pressure’ in UN Membership Bid, p. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-09-26/palestinians-fight-tremendous-pressure-in-un-membership-bid.html)
      The Palestinians are pushing back against “tremendous
      AND
      countries have bilaterally recognized Palestine as a state.

      Current side negotiations will fail.
      Christian Science Monitor, 9/26/2011 (The latest Quartet proposal to pressure Abbas? Going nowhere, p. http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Backchannels/2011/0926/The-latest-Quartet-proposal-to-pressure-Abbas-Going-nowhere)
      His application for full membership in the UN
      AND
      , it's hard to imagine Abbas shifting course.

      Restarting talks is key to sideline the UN statehood bid.
      Voice of America News, 9/18/2011 (Quartet seeks to avert Palestinian Statehood Showdown, p. http://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/2011/09/18/quartet-seeks-to-avert-palestinian-statehood-showdown/)
      Envoys from the Mideast Quartet meet in New
      AND
      bid for statehood at the U.N.

      A side deal is key to prevent confrontation in the UN.
      Richter, 9/21/2011 (Paul, Diplomatic deal to avert crisis possible, Tribune, p. http://articles.philly.com/2011-09-21/news/30184965_1_palestinian-bid-hanan-ashrawi-abbas)
      Diplomats scrambled Tuesday to cobble together a deal
      AND
      veto and could have cut off Palestinian funding.

      Plan helps the U.S. mediate the peace process.
      Levin 11 (Geoffrey, Goldman Fellow at the Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council, “To Mediate Middle East Peace, Obama Must First Regain Trust,” AIJAC, 7-25, http://aijac.org.au/news/article/to-mediate-middle-east-peace-obama-must-first-re)
      When Obama sets up expectations that are then
      AND
      he can help them to trust each other.

      Restoring Obama’s credibility is key to the success of the peace process.
      Chernus, 10/16/2009 (Ira - professor of religious studies at the University of Colorado at Boulder, What’s Obama’s Score on Mideast Peast, Truthout, p. http://archive.truthout.org/1016093)
      In the end, Freedland concludes what any
      AND
      be the winner usually ends up the winner.

      UN statehood causes Israel to feel isolation.
      Wall Street Journal, 5/24/2011 (Palestinian statehood vote looms over U.S. Israel rift, p. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303654804576341323663415578.html)
      The vote at September's U.N.
      AND
      the Palestinians more leverage if talks do resume.

      Israeli isolationism sparks nuclear war – overcomes rationality and deterrence.
      The New Republic, 7/15/2002, p. lexis
      The more that Israelis are treated as pariahs
      AND
      would place the Jewish state outside international norms.  

      UN statehood creates a spiral of separatism.
      Rubin, 9/11/2011 (Michael - resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, The UN’s Palestinian Precedent, Commentary, p. http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/09/11/un-palestinian-precedent/)
      Many states will vote for unilateral Palestinian statehood
      AND
      other multi-ethnic areas and conflict zones.

      Global nuclear war.
      Shehadi 1993 (Kamal, Research Associate – International Institute for Strategic Studies, December, Ethnic Self Determination and the Break Up of States, p. 81)
      This paper has argued that self-determination
      AND
      conflicts will erupt over national minorities and borders.

      Russian separatism sparks Ukraine conflict – escalates to global nuclear war.
      Kingston 2009 (Brian, Norman Paterson School of International Affairs – CIFP, “Ukraine: A Risk Assessment Report”, February, http://www.carleton.ca/cifp/app/serve.php/1214.pdf)
      Russia: Russia seeks to influence the weakened
      AND
      least the drawing in of many other countries. 

      Chechnyan separatists escalate to global nuclear war.
      Dunlop 2006 (William, Retired Senior Scientist – Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, and Harold Smith, Distinguished Visiting Scholar and Professor of Public Policy – University of California at Berkeley, “Who Did It? Using International Forensics to Detect and Deter Nuclear Terrorism”, Arms Control Today, October, http://www.armscontrol.org/print/2129)
      Among these, Moscow perhaps presents the most
      AND
      1996 TWA Flight 800 airline disaster.[5]

      Indo/Pak war escalates to global nuclear war.
      Alan Robock 2010, professor of climatology at Rutgers University and associate director of the school’s Center for Environmental Prediction and Owen Brian Toon, chair of the department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the University of Colorado at Boulder and a fellow of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, fellow of the American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Union, “Local War, Global Suffering,” Scientific American, January, 2010, http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockToonSciAmJan2010.pdf
      Abolition: The Only Policy People have several
      AND
      of conflict have the potential to erupt suddenly.



10/10/11
  • Liberty

    • Tournament: Liberty | Round: 1 | Opponent: JMU BW | Judge:

    • 1AC - Libya Aff from Georgia LL's caselist

      T: For/Its

      -- We meet – plan gives it to domestic actor

      -- Counter-interpretation –

      “For” means recipient

      MW 11 (Merriam-Webster, http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/for)

      Definition of FOR

      a —used as a function word to indicate purpose <a grant for studying medicine>

      b —used as a function word to 

      AND for home> <acted for the best>

      c —used as a function word to indicate the object or recipient of a perception, desire, or activity <now for a good rest> <run for your life> <an eye for a bargain>

      It also means you just have to give aid IN Libya

      MW 11 (Merriam-Webster, http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/for)

      used as a function word to indicate duration of time or extent of space <gone for two days>

      “For” means within

      Black 10 (Henry Campbell Black, M.A., “A Law Dictionary,” Second Edition, St. Paul Minn. West Publishing Co. 1910, http://blackslawdictionaryonline.com/blacks-law-dictionary-read-online/)

      For: Belonging to, exercising authority or functions within; as, where one describes himself as “a notary public in and for the said country.” 

      Democracy assistance is four things – we do all four

      McMahon 1 (Edward R., Director, Center on Democratic Performance, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Binghamton University, “Assessing USAID’s Assistance for Democratic Development :

      Is it Quantity Versus Quality?”, This paper was prepared for the American Political Science Association annual conference, San Francisco, August 30 – September 2, 2001, and is published in the Winter 2001 edition of Evaluation (London: SAGE Publications)., http://cdp.binghamton.edu/papers/usaid-apsa.pdf)

      Defining Democracy Assistance The concept of assistance for 

      AND 

      at the forefront of democratic change, Benin.

      TABLE 1

      Partial list of democratic development programs funded by the U.S. government in recent

      years in  Benin:

      • International observation mission to Presidential elections – 1991;

      • West African political party and civic organization election observer training – 1991;

      • Grass roots political party training program – 1993 to 1995;

      • Continuous series of exchanges;

      • Pre-legislative election assessment mission – 1995;

      • Support for election lessons learned assessment by Beninois NGOs– 1995;

      • Pre-Presidential election assessment – 1996;

      • International and Beninois observers to Presidential elections – 1996;

      • Provision of commodities to Presidential elections – 1996;

      • Parliamentary needs assessment  - 1998;

      • Civil society development programs, both to support infrastructure and to foster input

      into public policy dialogue – continuous.

      • Parliamentary Training and Support – 2000

      Democracy K – 2AC

      Perm – do the plan and non-exclusive parts of the alternative – the plan is a radical reversal of Bush-era democracy that creates expertise on Arab culture through multilateral cooperation– that’s Bauer

      *Global violence is decreasing – their impact is empirically denied

      Pinker 7 (Steven, Johnstone Family Professor in the Department of Psychology – Harvard University, “A History of Violence”, Edge: The Third Culture, 3-28, http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/pinker07/pinker07_index.html)

      In sixteenth-century Paris, a popular 

      AND 

      nature, but there are four plausible suggestions. 

      Anti-West criticism misses the boat – it distracts us from struggling against true forms of imperialism

      Shaw 2 (Martin, Professor of International Relations and Politics – University of Sussex, “The Problem of the Quasi-Imperial State: Uses and Abuses of Anti-Imperialism in the Global Era”, 4-7, http://www.martinshaw.org/empire.htm)

      It is fashionable in some circles, among 

      AND 

      more real and dangerous enemies closer to home.

      Alternative fails – critical theory has no mechanism to translate theory into practice

      Jones 99 (Richard Wyn, Lecturer in the Department of International Politics – University of Wales, Security, Strategy, and Critical Theory, CIAO, http://www.ciaonet.org/book/wynjones/wynjones06.html)

      Because emancipatory political practice is central to the 

      AND 

      thus that it is a fatally flawed enterprise

      Turn: Without alternative security policy options the security sector will be dominated by the most conservative policymakers.

       

      Olav. F. Knudsen, Prof @ Södertörn Univ College, ‘1 [Security Dialogue 32.3, “Post-Copenhagen Security Studies: Desecuritizing  Securitization,” p. 366]

      A final danger in focusing on the state 

      AND 

      unheeded by any but the most uncritical minds. 

      Democracy is not a product imposed on countries – it’s a tool to reveal public preferences and challenge authoritarian violence

      Fukuyama and McFaul 7 (Francis, Professor of International Political Economy and Director of the International Development Program – John Hopkins School, and Michael, Hoover Senior Fellow, Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law – Stanford University, “Should Democracy Be Promoted or Demoted?” Washington Quarterly, Winter, 31(1), 23-45)

      Yet, democracy promotion does not imply the 

      AND 

      ultimately  required for good governance and economic growth. 

      Framework – the aff has to prove the plan is better than the status quo or a competitive policy option. That’s best

      A. Fairness – the aff commits nine minutes to the 1AC. Allowing the neg to moot that speech skews the debate in favor of the neg. 

      B. Predictability – there are an infinite amount of frameworks and alternatives that could be used outside of policymaking. It is impossible for the aff to be prepared for all of them. This results in debates to be won not on the quality of the argument but the unpredictability.

      The alternative over-respects sovereignty – causes violence

      Fukuyama and McFaul 7 (Francis, Professor of International Political Economy and Director of the International Development Program – John Hopkins School, and Michael, Hoover Senior Fellow, Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law – Stanford University, “Should Democracy Be Promoted or Demoted?” Washington Quarterly, Winter, 31(1), 23-45)

      International relations realists argue that world order depends 

      AND 

      - and nonstate actors  in the international system.

      Democracy is moral – demand is high, autocracies cause genocide

      Fukuyama and McFaul 7 (Francis, Professor of International Political Economy and Director of the International Development Program – John Hopkins School, and Michael, Hoover Senior Fellow, Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law – Stanford University, “Should Democracy Be Promoted or Demoted?” Washington Quarterly, Winter, 31(1), 23-45)

      Apart from serving U.S. strategic 

      AND 

      not be defended on moral or ethical grounds.

      Tag Later

      Glen 11 (Patrick J., Adjunct Professor – Georgetown University Law Center, “The ADVANCE Democracy Act and the Future of United States Democracy Promotion Efforts,” Santa Clara Journal of International Law, 9 Santa Clara J. Int'l L. 273, http://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1688&context=facpub&sei-redir=1#search=%22United%20Nations%20foreign%20promotion%20law%22)

      This invidious argument proposes that democracy, and 

      AND 

      is not capable or willing  to embrace democracy.

      Judicial independence does not force Western ideas on the Arab world – it is inherently part of their culture

      Brown and Sherif 2 (Dr. Nathan J., Professor of Political Science and International Affairs – George Washington University, Dr. Adel Omar, President – Supreme Constitutional Court of Egypt, “Judicial Independence in the Arab World,” Program of Arab Governance of the United Nations Development Program, http://www.pogar.org/publications/judiciary/sherif/jud-independence.pdf)

      The importance of judicial independence is not  new 

      AND 

      significant degree of autonomy for the legal  field.

      European Union 2AC

      European aid fails in Libya.

      Yousef, 4/22/2011 (Tarik – nonresident senior fellow at the Global Economy and Development, The U.S. role in the Libyan Rebels, Brookings Video Podcast, Transcribed by S. Chung - 2:35 to 3:17, p. http://www.brookings.edu/multimedia/video/2011/0422_at_brookings_podcast.aspx)

      Given that we agree on the end game

      AND 

      or aid this process or assist the Libyans.

      European aid fails and is rejected.

      Gowan, 8/26/2011 (Richard – associate director at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, Does Libya really need European peacekeepers?, Foreign Policy, p. http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/26/does_libya_really_need_european_peacekeepers)

      Yet there are three obstacles to a deployment 

      AND 

      commitment in Libya would only complicate their sums.

      Obama Good – 2AC

      -- Case turns the DA –  ________.

      -- Fiat solves the link – instant, so there’s no repercussions

      Boehner will block currency without Obama’s help.

      Wall Street Journal, 10/26/2011 (Getting Tough With China (the Right Way), p. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204644504576652720545821438.html)

      So it appears that U.S. 

      AND 

      Mitt Romney's call for anti-China tariffs.

      Boehner outweighs and discharge won’t succeed.

      Reuters, 10/13/2011 (Analysis: Boehner stands firm against yuan bill, p. )

      A controversial U.S. bill aimed 

      AND 

      leadership to allow a vote on the bill.

      A credible UN is also need to co-opt future hegemonic rivals such as China.

      Hirsh, 2003 (Michael – former foreign editor at Newsweek, At War Without Ourselves, p. 2 and 87)

      The international system and its institutions will be 

      AND 

      the dirty but necessary work of nation building.

      UN democracy funding is non-controversial.

      McInerney, 10 (Stephen, Director of Advocacy for the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), He has extensive  experience in the Middle East and North Africa, including  graduate studies of Middle Eastern politics, history, and  the Arabic language at the American University of Beirut  and the American University in Cairo.  He has spoken on  Middle East affairs with numerous media outlets including MSNBC and CBS News. “The President’s Budget Request for Fiscal Year 2011: Democracy, Governance, and Human Rights in the Middle East”, POMED, April, http://www.pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/fy11-budget-analysis-final.pdf)

      The U.S. has long been 

      AND 

      the many organizations funded under this budget heading.

      -- Not intrinsic – logical policymaker can do the plan and pass

      -- Political capital isn’t key – voting is ideological 

      Dickinson 9 (Matthew, Professor of Political Science – Middlebury College and Former Professor – Harvard University, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,” Presidential Power, 5-26, http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/)

       

      As for Sotomayor, from here the path 

      AND 

      power that cannot be measured through legislative boxscores. 

      -- Vote No – interpretation: debate models Congress – voting Neg means debate occurs and the plan is rejected – worse for capital

      -- No US/China war – relations are stable – and economics checks

      Sargent 8 (Sara, Business Reporter – Medill News Service, “China Space Launch Raises Fears”, UPI, 10-3, Lexis)

      In January 2007 China conducted its first successful 

      AND 

      agree that war is an exceptionally unlikely scenario.

      -- Won’t go nuclear

      PPG 4 (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Pennsylvania), 9-29, Lexis)

      U.S. military capacity is now 

      AND 

      . The Chinese are definitely not into terrorism.

      Spending Trade-Off DA

      Non-unique – spending now – cross-apply from the 1AC.

      Plan does not spend much.

      Emery, 8/23/2011 (Theo, Congress could resist additional aid to Libya, The Boston Globe, p. http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/08/congress-could-resist-additional-aid-libya/DMmIHbENjJ0A6QBAednf0M/index.html)

      In addition to Kerry, numerous members of 

      AND 

      called on to fund it,” he said.

      The plan would not be expensive.

      Anderson, 3/13/2011 (Lisa – president of the American University in Cairo, Obama’s Libya Inaction Risks Missing Opening for Democracy: Lisa Anderson, Bloomberg, p. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-13/obama-s-libya-inaction-risks-missing-an-opening-lisa-anderson.html)

      The appointment of a UN commissioner may not 

      AND 

      expensive, in either financial or political terms.

      No link threshold – they don’t have evidence that indicates that the plan’s cost will sink _______.

      No trade-off – regional response fund.

      McInerney, July 2011 (Stephen – executive 

      AND -Budget-Report-web.pdf)

      The administration has wisely budgeted for further unexpected 

      AND 

      Syria, Libya, Yemen, or elsewhere.




11/04/11
  • 2AC Liberty Round 5 vs. GMU FK

    • Tournament: Liberty | Round: 5 | Opponent: George Mason FK | Judge: Luke Jarmin

    • T – QPQ – 2AC

       

      1. We meet – normal means is ex-post conditionality

      Kamp 7 (Mathias, “The EU as External Democracy Promoter in Sub-Saharan Africa – The Role of Conditionality and Positive Measures,” http://essay.utwente.nl/58118/1/scriptie_Kamp.pdf)

       

      A first distinction can be made between conditionality

      AND

      forms part of an agreement” (ibid.).

       

      Counter-Interp – DA can be unconditional

      Lappin 10 (Richard, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade, holds an MA in Conflict and Peace Studies from the University of Leuven, “What we talk about when we talk about Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,” Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, Vol 4, Issue 1, 2010)

       

      In defining democracy assistance, it is paramount

      AND

      precise instrument within a broader democracy promotion paradigm.

       

       

      Your author has no intent to define – he is just describe past examples of democracy assistance – he even concludes neg

      Carothers 99 (Thomas, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve, p. 6)

       

      The most common and often most significant tool

      AND

      recipient countries may sometimes view it as such).

       

       

      T: For/Its

       

      -- We meet – plan eventually could make in to the government

      -- Counter-interpretation –

       

      “For” means recipient

      MW 11 (Merriam-Webster, http

      AND

      -webster.com/dictionary/for)

       

      Definition of FOR

      a —used as a function word to indicate purpose <a grant for studying medicine>

      b —used as a function word to

      AND

      for home> <acted for the best>

      c —used as a function word to

      AND

      life> <an eye for a bargain>

       

      It also means you just have to give aid IN Libya

      MW 11 (Merriam-Webster, http

      AND

      -webster.com/dictionary/for)

       

      used as a function word to indicate duration

      AND

      extent of space <gone for two days>

       

      “For” means within

      Black 10 (Henry Campbell Black, M

      AND

      -law-dictionary-read-online/)

       

      For: Belonging to, exercising authority or

      AND

      notary public in and for the said country.”

       

      Case

      -- Norms and economic interdependence check Asian war

      Eskildsen 9 (Robert, Assistant Professor of

      AND

      .org/-Robert-Eskildsen/2058)

       

      The Meiji …stand out as particularly troublesome.

       

      -- No chance of European war

      Asmus 3 (Ronald, Senior Fellow –

      AND

      Foreign Affairs, September / October, Lexis)

       

      Several factors make the recent collapse in transatlantic

      AND

      -Cold War peace over the last decade.

       

       

      Empire K – 2AC

       

      The politics of multilateralism opens up space for the affirmation of life. The alternative of unilateral politics leads to a violent collapse of difference and agency.

      Ruiz, 6/13/2003 (

      AND

      viewnews.php?newsId=564/ )

      Second, multilateralist discourses need to continue to

      AND

      birthright of all the peoples of our planet.

       

      *Global violence is decreasing – their impact is empirically denied

      Pinker 7 (Steven, Johnstone Family Professor

      AND

      /pinker07/pinker07_index.html)

       

      In sixteenth-century Paris, a popular

      AND

      nature, but there are four plausible suggestions.

       

      Anti-West criticism misses the boat – it distracts us from struggling against true forms of imperialism

      Shaw 2 (Martin, Professor of International

      AND

      .martinshaw.org/empire.htm)

       

      It is fashionable in some circles, among

      AND

      more real and dangerous enemies closer to home.

       

      Alternative fails – critical theory has no mechanism to translate theory into practice

      Jones 99 (Richard Wyn, Lecturer in

      AND

      /book/wynjones/wynjones06.html)

       

      Because emancipatory political practice is central to the

      AND

      thus that it is a fatally flawed enterprise.

       

      Turn: Without alternative security policy options the security sector will be dominated by the most conservative policymakers. 

      Olav. F. Knudsen, Prof @

      AND

      Studies: Desecuritizing  Securitization,” p. 366]

      A final danger in focusing on the state

      AND

      unheeded by any but the most uncritical minds. 

       

      The alternative over-respects sovereignty – causes violence

      Fukuyama and McFaul 7 (Francis, Professor of International Political Economy and Director of the International Development Program – John Hopkins School, and Michael, Hoover Senior Fellow, Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law – Stanford University, “Should Democracy Be Promoted or Demoted?” Washington Quarterly, Winter, 31(1), 23-45)

       

      International relations realists argue that world order depends

      AND

      - and nonstate actors  in the international system.

       

       

      International Actor CP – Saudi/Iran Proxy War 2AC

       

      US abandonment on Libya sparks a Saudi/Iran proxy war over Bahrain --- collapses the economy.

      Abramson, 3/9/2011 (

      AND

      -the-oil-market.html)

      With that in mind, we may turn

      AND

      and send the global economy into a tailspin

       

      Saudi-Iran conflict draws in great powers – escalates to a world war.

      Forostenko, 4/22/2011 (

      AND

      ?context=va&aid=24453)

      The conflicts in the Middle East and Africa

      AND

      supported by third world nations and perhaps China.

       

      Nuclear war.

      Mead, Summer 1992 (Walter Russell Mead

      AND

      , New Perspectives Quarterly, p. 30)

      What if the global economy stagnates-or

      AND

      than Germany and Japan did in the '30s.

       

      -- No accidental launch –

      A) Early warning systems solve

      Bailey 98 (Kathleen, Snr Fellow @

      AND

      .nipp.org/5.php)

       

      The United States and Russia have satellite-

      AND

      in event that it was actually an attack.

       




11/05/11
  • Libya Aff

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Plan: The United States Federal Government should provide technical support in the areas of rule of law, political dialogue, constitution-making and the electoral process for Libya through the United Nations Support Mission in Libya

      Contention One – Stability

      Gaddafi’s death has provided the TNC with a chance to establish democracy – now is key

      Daragahi 10/20 (Borzou – Financial Times, “Death boosts chances of unifying nation”, 2011, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/16356846-fb2d-11e0-8e7e-00144feab49a.html#axzz1bM7n2MTd)

       

      He had vowed to go down fighting,

      AND

      toward getting brash young men off the streets.

      The conditions are ripe for a stable transition. Libya is rich, diverse, and accessible.

      Dobbins and Wehrey, 8/23/

      AND

      -after-qaddafi?page=show)

      Nation building is resource-intensive, and

      AND

      the complex and demanding tasks of peace building.

      Libya needs technical assistance to transition to democracy. That prevents a collapse.

      Democracy Digest, 9/13/2011

      AND

      -ahead-of-complex-transition/)

      Transition is complex, open-ended

      AND

      will turn bad very soon and very quickly.”

      Libyan collapse destabilizes the region and undermines stability in Iraq.

      Pack, 3/18/2011 (

      AND

      _to_fail?page=full)

      Today we face a familiar dilemma. Libya

      AND

      simply too big to be allowed to fail.

      Iraq instability escalates to world war three.

      Corsi 7 (Jerome, "War with Iran is imminent," Phd in Poly Sci @ Harvard, author, + staff reporter @ World Net Daily, 1-8, http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53669)

      If a broader war breaks out in Iraq

      AND

      much as World Wars I and II began.

      African conflicts escalate to great power wars.

      Glick, 12/12/2007 (

      AND

      &subcategoryid=90&newsid=11568)

      The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and

      AND

      which flows through all countries of the region.

      That goes nuclear.

      Deutsch 2001 (Dr. Jeffery – founder

      AND

      .com/rtn/newsletterv2n9.html)

      The Rabid Tiger Project believes that nuclear

      AND

      , and some people love to go fishing.

      U.S. democracy assistance is critical to prevent transitional violence. Only the United States has the expertise establish the foundations of stability.

      Margon, 8/22/2011 (

      AND

      /libya_next_stage.html)

      Ensuring political unity in the TNC is crucial

      AND

      strong commitment to doing so on all fronts.

      U.S. expertise and political knowledge is critical to prevent democratic backsliding.

      Vandewalle, 4/6/2011 (

      AND

      /doc/Vandewalle%20Testimony.pdf)

      As the United States continues to find its

      AND

      the foundations of a future, democratic Libya.

       

      Contention Two – Multilateralism

       

      Sustained UN engagement on Libya is critical to maintain U.S. leadership, garner cooperation on multiple issues and overall multilateralism. The alternative is counterbalancing.

      Brimmer, 9/15/2011 (

      AND

      -the-united-nations-matters/)

      Glancing at the agenda of the upcoming General

      AND

      those who would not act in our interests.

      Solves proliferation and terrorism.

      Wirth, 3/22/2011 (

      AND

      Harvard International Review, p. EBSCO Host)

      The greatest challenges to US national security today

      AND

      nuclear program and prospered from its illicit activities.

      Terrorists have the means.

      Bunn, November 2008 (Matthew – associate

      AND

      Securing the Bomb 2008, p. v)

      Terrorists are still seeking nuclear weapons— and

      AND

      do to ensure that they are effectively secured.

      And they can deliver.

      Allison and Kokoshin, Fall 2002 (Graham

      AND

      , The National Interest, p. lexis)

      As Robert Walpole, a National Intelligence Officer

      AND

      be able to smuggle in a nuclear bomb."

      Terrorism causes retaliation that sparks global nuclear war and extinction.

      Ayson 2010 (Robert, Professor of Strategic

      AND

      & Terrorism, 33(7), July)

      A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the

      AND

      might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.

      Prolif escalates to global nuclear war.

      Utgoff, Summer 2002 (Victor – deputy

      AND

      Analysis, Survival, p. OUP Journals)

      Widespread proliferation is likely to lead to an

      AND

      bodies of dead cities or even whole nations.

      Regional conflicts escalate to WMD wars.

      Dean, May 1995 (Jonathan – adviser

      AND

      /ma95/ma95.dean.html)

      Experts throughout the world expect growing population pressures

      AND

      can head off an increasing number of conflicts.

      Global human rights prevents extinction.

      Copelon 1998/1999 (Rhonda - professor

      AND

      . Rev. 59, p. lexis)

      The indivisible human rights framework survived the Cold

      AND

      to bear on both domestic and foreign policy.

      Climate leadership is critical to solve warming – prevents extinction.

      Moon 10/25/2009 (Ban

      AND

      /opinion/26iht-edban.html)

      Every day, the critical December summit in

      AND

      are implanting programs to curb emissions as well

      Disease spread causes extinction

      Scotsman 95 (9-11, “The Mega Death”, p. 13, Lexis)

       

      Bullets and bombs may be the weapons of

      AND

      had the capability to engage in biological warfare.

      Only multilateral cooperation prevents great power wars that make extinction inevitable.

      Dyer, 12/30/2004 (

      AND

      , The Toronto Star, p. lexis)

      The "firebreak" against nuclear weapons use

      AND

      then history will repeat itself and everybody loses.

      The US needs to take action in Libya through the UN – key to avoid backlash and diminished US credibility

      Bauer, 11 (William, “America

      AND

      ?id=1470&op=no)

      So, what is next for Libya?

      AND

      the U.S. has to offer.

      Libya is the test case for the future of Obama’s multilateral approach.

      Rothkopf, 3/18/2011 (

      AND

      _obama_as_for_qaddafi)

      This is not because Libya is such a

      AND

      to be able to take credit for leading.

      Coalitions of the willing cannot substitute for the UN.

      Tharoor, September-October 2003 (Shashi

      AND

      , Foreign Affairs, p. EBSCO Host)

      Nonetheless, since the Iraq crisis, some

      AND

      of international unilateralism may no longer be sustainable.

      Contention Three – Burden Sharing

      A grand strategy of burden sharing is critical to prevent counterbalancing and getting sustained cooperation on global issues.

      Ikenberry, January-February 2010 (G

      AND

      /article.cfm?piece=760)

      President Obama inherited the most daunting and intractable

      AND

      is beginning the process of gaining it back.

      A shift to burden sharing is critical to maintain effective leadership.

      Beauchamp, 8/22/2011 (

      AND

      -and-global-policemen.html)

      Police forces aren't made up of one member

      AND

      have to conduct every patrol on their own.

      US leadership prevents great powers wars.

      Khalilzad, 2/8/2011 (

      AND

      -khalilzad?page=3%29)

      We face this domestic challenge while other major

      AND

      most significant barrier facing Chinese hegemony and aggression. 

      Nuclear war.

      Khalilzad 1995 (Zalmay – sixteen years younger

      AND

      18, No 2, p. 84)

      Under the third option, the United States

      AND

      bipolar or a multipolar balance of power system.

      The plan locks-in the strategy of burden sharing and multilateralism.

      Brady, August 2011 (Kyle - author

      AND

      -new-u-s-strategy)

      The involvement of the United States in the

      AND

      to be tested, refined and fully institutionalized.

      Contention Four – No Disads

      Military aid now.

      USA Today, 9/20/2011

      AND

      -s-help-for-libya/)

      President Obama said today that the United States

      AND

      continue to provide security assistance, Obama said.

      Unfrozen assets.

      New York Times, 9/1/

      AND

      /02paris.html?pagewanted=all)

      The Libyans have been pressing for the release

      AND

      from $50 billion to $150 billion.

      Military action should have triggered the link

      Xinhua 11 (Xinhua News, “Int'l community questions military intervention in Libya”, 3/27, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-03/27/c_13800339.htm)

       

      BEIJING, March 27 (Xinhua) --

      AND

      Britons doubted the motive of the British government. 




11/11/11
0
  • Round Reports

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Aff: Georgia BS
      Round #7 Tournament: Shirley
      vs: Stanford HT
      Judge: Zemlicka

       

       

      Plan Text

      Same as wiki

       

      1ac Advantages

      Warming

      Nuclear Terror

      Human Rights

      Disease

      Heg

      Africa War

       

      2ac Offense

       

       

      1ar Strategy

       

       

      2ar Strategy
       



11/11/11
  • HDP Aff

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Plan

      The United States House Democracy Partnership should substantially increase democratic legislature training for Tunisia.

       

      Advantage 1 – Tunisian Stability

      Advantage One – Tunisian Stability

      Tunisia is going through a political transition – the risk of instability remains high

      Ottoway 12/29 (Marina - analyst of the formation and transformation of political systems, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “A Strong Start to Tunisia's Long Journey”, 2011, )

       

      One year after the start of the uprising that brought down President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali along with his family

      thanks to the political acumen demonstrated by major players, so far it muddles through.

      HDP engagement on Tunisia builds effective legislative institutions and avoids backlash – US expertise is key

      Sorcher 11 (Sara – National Journal – Foreign Affairs, “House Democracy Partnership Sees Opportunity in Changing Middle East”, 10/5, )

       

      Tunisia and Egypt ousted their longtime autocrats; Lebanon’s government is now dominated by Hezbollah and its allies; American troops are preparing

      We’re not trying to preach to them. It’s as colleagues,‖ Price said of the advice.

      Instability makes Tunisia a flashpoint for terrorism

      Arieff 11 (Alexis – Analyst in African Affairs, Congressional Research Service, “Political Transition in Tunisia”, 12/26, )

       

      Some analysts fear that Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), a regional affiliate

      was arrested in Belgium the same month. The group appears to have since been inactive.

      AQIM will engage in nuclear terrorism—have the capability

      Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 11 [“After bin Laden: Nuclear terrorism still a top threat”, 5-13-2011, ]

       

      The evolving threat. While Al Qaeda's anti

      AND

      priority must be securing this potential source material.

      And they can deliver.

      Allison and Kokoshin, Fall 2002 (Graham

      AND

      , The National Interest, p. lexis)

      As Robert Walpole, a National Intelligence Officer

      AND

      be able to smuggle in a nuclear bomb."

      Terrorism causes retaliation that sparks global nuclear war and extinction.

      Ayson 2010 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand –  Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects”, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 33(7), July)

      A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the

      AND

      might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.

      Stability in Tunisia is key– Instability causes mass weapons transfers, refugee crisis, and strengthens terrorism

      Phillips 11 (Mark - Head of RUSI's Land Capabilities and Operations. He was formerly Chief of Staff to Baroness Neville-Jones, Minister of State for Security, “Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: Implications for the International Terrorist Threat”, 2011, )

       

      The effect of the uprisings on the international

      AND

      Al-Shabaab to draw on or exploit).

      That escalates to global WMD conflict.

      Dhooge 1999 (Lucien – assistant professor of

      AND

      International and Comparative Law, p. lexis)

      There are numerous risks associated with these practices

      AND

      and causing significant U.S. casualties."

       

      Mass refugee influxes cause European hyper-nationalism
      Greenblatt 11 (Alan, NPR, “Arab Refugees Finding Harsh Welcome In Europe,” 3-18-11,

      Thousands are fleeing across the Mediterranean from North

      AND

      could become too many refugees for many people."

      They’ll scapegoat refugees – causing geopolitical jockeying that goes nuclear

      Karlin 9 (Anatoly Karlin is a San Francisco based independent writer, political analyst, Editing Professional, and media critic. He is also the author of the blog Sublime Oblivion focusing on the Russia, geopolitics and future global trends. His articles have appeared in The Guardian PSJ and The Discovery Institute's Real Russia Project,  Sublime Strategic Report #10 – October 23, 2009 – available at: http://www.sublimeoblivion.com/2009/10/23/ssr10-europe-black-continent/. )

       

      However, conservatives who fear the coming of

      AND

      deterrence power of nuclear weapons will fall dramatically.

      Extinction

      Elliot 7 (Jeffrey M., North Carolina Central University and Robert Reginald, California State University, San Bernandino, The Arms Control, Disarmament, and Military Security Dictionary, p. 19-20)

       

      Escalation of War (15)

      Increasing, enlarging, or intensifying the nature

      AND

      WAR, 20; TOTAL WAR. 32.

       

      Advantage 2 – Coordination

      Advantage Two – Coordination

      House Democracy Partnership cooperation in Tunisia locks in a model of congressional coordination with USAID – that makes current legislative strengthening programs more credible and effective

      Price 11 (David – Representative and Member of Congress, Chairman of the House Democracy Partnership, “FISCAL 2012 APPROPRIATIONS: STATE, FOREIGN OPERATION AND RELATED PROGRAMS;

      COMMITTEE: HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS;

      SUBCOMMITTEE: STATE, FOREIGN OPERATIONS, AND RELATED PROGRAMS”, 4/13, )

       

      As the Subcommittee is aware, the House Democracy Partnership is a bipartisan, twenty-member commission that works with 14 partner countries

      of mutual respect and long-term institutional development - is well suited to the current moment.

      That model of coordination is then implemented by the US globally

      Price 9 (David – House Congressman, Chairman of HDP, formerly known as HDAC, “Global Democracy

      Promotion: Seven Lessons for the New Administration”, January, Washington Quarterly, )

       

      Supporting the development of democratic systems around the

      AND

      facilitate as emerging democracies find their own way.

      Now is key – USAID is lacking expertise and credibility on specific issues

      House Report 10 (Report 111-187, Library of Congress, “STATE, FOREIGN OPERATIONS, AND RELATED PROGRAMS APPROPRIATIONS BILL”, 2010, )

       

      The Committee recommendation includes $1,388,800,000 for Operating Expenses, which is $329,616,000

      the status of hiring, training, and deploying new personnel employed through the DLI.

      Multiple Impacts –

      1st - Kyrgyzstan

      Kyrgyzstan unrest results in Russian expansionism – coordination with USAID programs is key to denying Russia’s sphere of influence

      Cohen 10 (Ariel, PhD and Senior Policy Analyst at Heritage Foundation, “The Manas Base and Challenges to the U.S. Presence in Kyrgyzstan”, 7/27, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/07/the-manas-base-and-challenges-to-the-us-presence-in-kyrgyzstan)

      Kyrgyzstan has seen unrest in the last few

      AND

      U.S. military operations in Afghanistan.

      Russian expansionism triggers global nuclear war

      Blank 9 (Stephen J. Blank, strategic Studies Institute's expert on the Soviet bloc and the post-Soviet world since 1989; former Associate Professor of Soviet Studies at the Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education, Maxwell Air Force Base; B.A. in History from the University of Pennsylvania, and a M.A. and Ph.D. in History from the University of Chicago, March 2009. “RUSSIA AND ARMS CONTROL: ARE THERE OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION?” )

       

      Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia

      AND

      on their neighbors or their own people.172

      Spills over into the Balkans – that goes nuclear

      Scherbak 8 (Yuri, Advisor to the

      AND

      )

      2. The war in Caucasus attested that

      AND

      neighbors can lead to a new global conflict.

       

      2nd – Haiti

       

      Legislative expertise and coordination are needed in Haiti - that establishes long term stability

      DOS 12/28 (US Department of State, “Governance and Rule of Law: Two Year Fast Facts on the U.S. Government's Work in Haiti”, 12/28, )

       

      The January 12, 2010, earthquake had an immediate impact on governance and rule of law

      as well as publicity for key GOH initiatives like the Caracol Industrial Park.

      Haiti is the lynchpin of Caribbean instability – success there spills over

      Patterson 11 (P.J., CARICOM's (Caribbean Community) special envoy to Haiti, “Rebuilding Haiti - A Caribbean priority”, 1/30, )

       

      THE rebuilding of Haiti has to be a

      AND

      immediate challenge is how to realise that possibility.

      Caribbean instability causes bioterrorism and LNG explosions

      Bryan 1 (Anthony T., Director of the Caribbean Program – North/South Center, and Stephen E. Flynn, Senior Fellow – Council on Foreign Relations, “Terrorism, Porous Borders, and Homeland Security: The Case for U.S.-Caribbean Cooperation”, 10-21, http://www.cfr.org/publication/4844/terrorism_porous_borders_and _homeland_ security.html)

       

      Terrorist acts can take place anywhere. The

      AND

      and deployment of biological weapons within national borders.

      CBW use causes extinction

      Steinbrunner 97 (John, Senior Fellow – Brookings, Foreign Policy, 12-22, Lexis)

       

      Although human pathogens are often lumped with nuclear

      AND

      this sort but not necessarily its outer limit.

      LNG attack would wreck global trade

      Mihailescu 4 (ANDREA R. MIHAILESCU, 7/13/04 (Analysis: LNG a security risk to the U.S.?, UPI, lexis)

      The bulk of the world's LNG trade moves

      AND

      echoed by former Bush security official Richard Clarke.

      Extinction

      Pazner 8 (Michael J., Faculty – New York Institute of Finance, Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, p. 137-138)

       

      The rise in isolationism and protectionism will bring

      AND

      as the beginnings of a new world war.

       

       

       

      Advantage 3 – US/Tunisia Engagement

      Advantage 3 – US/Tunisia Cooperation

      House Democracy Partnership cooperation is key to building a long term bilateral relationship with Tunisia

      Price 11 (David – Representative and Member of Congress, Chairman of the House Democracy Partnership, “FISCAL 2012 APPROPRIATIONS: STATE, FOREIGN OPERATION AND RELATED PROGRAMS;

      COMMITTEE: HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS;

      SUBCOMMITTEE: STATE, FOREIGN OPERATIONS, AND RELATED PROGRAMS”, 4/13, )

       

      As the Subcommittee is aware, the House Democracy Partnership is a bipartisan, twenty-member commission

      can play in charting a new path for U.S. relations with the Middle East.

      This engagement with Tunisia’s legislature is key to US credibility – must engage islamists

      McInerney 11 (Stephen - POMED’s Executive Director. Previously, he was Director of Advocacy at POMED, “Islamist Victory in Tunisia Presents Opportunity for U.S. Engagement “, 11/8, )

       

      On October 23, Tunisia held the first free elections

      empowered across the region, which is an opportunity the U.S. cannot afford to miss.

      Engagement with Tunisia overwhelms all alt causes – sustains credibility

      Carpenter 11 (J. Scott - Washington Institute Keston family fellow, “Help Tunisia First”, 2/24,  )

       

      Tunisians took back their country on Jan.

      AND

      publicly reassure their Tunisian counterparts of American support.

      Credibility in the Middle East is vital to US soft power

      Etzioni 11 (Amitai - professor of international relations at George Washington University, “The Coming Test

      of U.S. Credibility”, March-April, Military Review, )

       

      The Theory of Credibility One definition of power is the ability of A to make B follow a course of action that A prefers. The term “make” is highly relevant. When A

      power. One’s mind turns to two hot spots: North Korea and Iran.

      Soft power builds effective coalitions that solves disease, environment, and WMD war

      Reiss 8 (Mitchell B., Vice Provost of International Affairs – College of William & Mary, “Restoring America's Image: What the Next President Can Do”, Survival, October, 50(5))

       

      But first, there is another question to

      AND

      or do more to enhance peace and security.

      Disease spread causes extinction

      Scotsman 95 (9-11, “The Mega Death”, p. 13, Lexis)

       

      Bullets and bombs may be the weapons of

      AND

      had the capability to engage in biological warfare.

      Eco collapse causes extinction

      Jayawardena 9 (Asitha, London South Bank University, “We Are a Threat to All Life on Earth”, Indicator, 7-17, http://www.indicator.org.uk/?p=55)

       

      Sloep and Van Dam-Mieras (1995

      AND

      …. expecting surprises and adapting to these.’

      Soft power is key to US hegemony

      Sen 5 (Sankar, Former Director – Indian National Police Academy, The Statesman, 4-5, Lexis)

       

      Indeed anti-American sentiment is sweeping the

      AND

      and may gradually affect American pre-eminence.

      Collapse of leadership causes global nuclear war

      Kagan 11 (Robert, Senior Associate – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “The Price of Power”, The Weekly Standard, 1-24, http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/price-power_533695.html?nopager=1)

       

      Today the international situation is also one of

      AND

      table and the table will not fall over. 

       

       




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