Georgia » Georgia BS Neg

Georgia BS Neg

Last modified by Administrator on 2012/10/17 22:26
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  • GSU Rd 7

    • Tournament: GSU | Round: 7 | Opponent: | Judge:

    • K – 1NC

      Their representation of Mideast instability is an orientalist discourse defined according to imperial interests

       

      Bilgin 4 (Pinar, Bilkent University, “Whose ‘Middle East’? Geopolitical Inventions and Practices of Security”, International Relations, 18(1), p. 28) 

      What I call the ‘Middle East’ perspective …

      accused  of treachery and imprisoned at worst.

      Disorder and insecurity are inevitable. Attempting to control danger is the impetus for global destruction

       

      Der Derian 98 (James, Professor of Political Science – University of Massachusetts, On Security, Ed. Lipschutz, p. 24-25) 

      No other concept in international relations packs

      identities calcifying into a fearful sameness.

      Vote Neg to reject the dominant framing of security. This critical praxis is a prerequisite to effective policy solutions

       

      Bruce 96 (Robert, Associate Professor in Social Science – Curtin University and Graeme Cheeseman, Senior Lecturer – University of New South Wales, Discourses of Danger and Dread Frontiers, p. 5-9) 

      This goal is pursued in ways which

      or resistant to them, or choose not to understand them, and why?

       

      CP – 1NC

      Text: The United States Federal Government should immediately close all of its international detention facilities including but not limited to Guantanamo Bay. 

       

      Ending indefinite detention is the vital internal link to credible democracy assistance

      Katulis, 9 (Brian, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, “Democracy Promotion in the Middle East and the Obama Administration”, A Century Foundation Report, http://tcf.org/publications/pdfs/pb681/Katulis.pdf) 

      Actions speak louder than words

      to advance democracy in the Middle  East.

       

      CP – 1NC

      The United States Federal Government should offer the Arab Republic of Egypt a bilateral free trade agreement.  We’ll clarify.

       

      Competes and avoids net benefits – doesn’t increase democracy assistance

      Sends a strong signal of US commitment to democracy and increases FDI

      Dunne 11 (Michelle, Director of the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, “Egypt’s Democratic Transition:  Five Important Myths About the Economy and International Assistance,” 7-21, http://www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/403/Egypts_Democratic_Transition_ENG.PDF) 

      Far-reaching reforms that stimulate

      in the trade and transport infrastructure.  

       

       

      DA – 1NC

      SKFTA will pass – political capital is key to resolve the TAA – that’s key to passage

      Palmer 9/2 (Doug, Reuters Reporter, " Analysis: Obama's trade legacy in a crucible this fall," 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902) 

      After a slow start that has frustrated

      a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

      The plan causes a massive congressional backlash

      Richter, 11 (4/12/2011, Paul LA Times, “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition; U.S. lawmakers not only have shut the door on new spending to stabilize countries rocked by the so-called Arab Spring. They have resisted proposals to shift money from other foreign aid programs,” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413) 

      The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid

      has been linked since the early 1980s.

      Deal deters North Korean aggression

      Gerwin 10 (Edward F., Senior Fellow for Trade and Global Economic Policy – Third Way, “5 Reasons America Needs Korea Free Trade Deal”, Wall Street Journal, 12-16, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/12/16/guest-contribution-5-reasons-america-needs-korea-free-trade-deal/) 

      5. China is Not a Fan. The Korea  

      “beefy” benefits for American trade.

      Korea war turns every impact and causes extinction

      Hayes and Green 10 (Peter, Professor of International Relations – Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology and Director – Nautilus Institute, and Michael Hamel, Victoria University, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, Nautilus Institute Special Report, 1-5, http://www.nautil us.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf) 

      At worst, there is the possibility

      priority consideration from the international community.

      DA – 1NC

      US renewed commitment to Pakistani economic assistance

      AFP, 11 (“US renews commitment to economic support for Pakistan”, July 15, Business Recorder, http://www.brecorder.com/pakistan/business-a-economy.html) 

      WASHINGTON: The United States on Thursday

      and make sure that they match Pakistan's.

      Aff’s funding forces a tradeoff within the ESF budget

      POMED, 11 (Project on Middle East Democracy, “Summary and Highlights of FY11 Appropriations Act”, April 17, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/04/summary-and-highlights-of-fy11-appropriations-act.html/) 

      Speaking on the wave of democratic

      Economic Support Funds intended for other programming.

      ESF funding is key to Pakistani economic growth

      Kronstadt and Epstein, 11 (Susan B., Specialist in Foreign Policy, K. Alan, Specialist in South Asian Affairs, “Pakistan: U.S. Foreign Assistance”, June 7, Congressional Research Service, www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41856.pdf) 

      The Economic Support Fund (

      Pakistan during humanitarian crises. (FY2010 – $10.0 million; FY2012 request – $20.0 million)

      That causes regional instability, terror, economic collapse, and global war

      Walayat 10 (Nadeem, Editor – Market Oracle, “Pakistan Collapse Could Trigger Global Great Depression and World War III”, The Market Oracle, 1-16, http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16543.html)   

      During 2009 the 2600 terrorist attacks resulted

      Depression ultimately resulted in the Second World War.

       

      DA – 1NC

      U.S. – Sino relations are going well now – but challenges can tank this

      Lavin 11 (Franklin – Former Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade, M.S. in Chinese Language , “Consequential China: U.S.–China Relations in a Time of Transition”, 6/28, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/06/consequential-china-us-china-relations-in-a-time-of-transition)

       

      I mentioned that I have had

      and the U.S. in terms of foreign policy management.

      MENA democracy assistance is perceived as such a challenge to CCP legitimacy

      Hill 11 (Fiona – Director of Brookings Institute of the US and Europe, “How Russia and China See the Egyptian Revolution”, Foreign Affairs, 2/15, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/15/how_russia_and_china_see_the_egyptian_revolution)

       

      Although China and Russia are clearly

      in the so-called color revolutions of 2003 to 2005.

      Relations stop global nuclear war

      Conable and Lampton 93 (Barber B., President Emeritus – World Bank and David, President – National Committee, “China: The Coming Power”, Foreign Affairs, December / January, Lexis) 

      Regionally American interests are both numerous

      increasing importance the region attaches to building positive ties to the P.R.C.




11/01/11
  • GSU Rd 3

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • trEU CP

      EU democracy assistance solves and avoids backlash

      Hill, 11 (Steven, Writer at the Global Policy Institute, “The Arab Spring is an Opportunity...for Europe”, July 8, http://www.gpilondon.com/index.php?id=302) 

      The Arab Spring is a historic moment of opportunity

      delicate Mideast power balance has tipped somewhat toward Iran.

       

      NB – 1NC

      Counterplan boosts EU soft power

      Martin, 11 (David, Scotland's senior Member of the European Parliament, “‘Soft Power’ Supporting Democracy – in Tanzania – and throughout the World”, June 14, http://www.blogmartinmep.eu/?p=94) 

      I believe that election observation and assistance

      EU foreign policy objectives, in particular peace building.

      EU soft power key to prevent climate change

      Rocabert, 10 (Jofre M., “International Climate Policy Post-Copenhagen: what role for the EU?”, May 4, http://www.thenewfederalist.eu/International-Climate-Policy-Post-Copenhagen-what-role-for-the-EU) 

      The United Nations Climate Change Conference held

      the international arena, there won’t be much hope left for the climate.

      Extinction

      Tickell 8 (Oliver, Climate Researcher and Author – Kyoto2, “On a Planet 4C Hotter, All We Can Prepare For is Extinction”, The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange) 

      We need to get prepared for four degrees

      Japan that degenerated into a squabble over national emission rights.  

      1NC CP - MCA

       

      Only development aid can promote long-term democratic growth. The MCC is key to civil society and good governance.

      Beard 09 (Elle, Project Manager for US Programs @ Atlantic Partnership and Presidential Fellow @ Univ. of Michigan Ford School of Public Policy, "Are We Doing Enough? Sustainable Democracy Promotion and the Millennium Challenge Corporation," http://www.thepresidency.org/storage/documents/Fellows2009/University_of_Michigan_Beard.pdf) 

      Democracy is defined by the US legislative branch

      preservation and growth of democratic institutions and practices. 

      The CP is a strong incentive for democratic reform. Empirical examples.

       

      Cook 05 (Steven, Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, "The Right Way to Promote Arab Reform," Foreign Affairs, March/April, http://www.cfr.org/democracy-promotion/right-way-promote-arab-reform/p8115) 

      The best way to do so would be to move away

      require major new financial investment. It would, however, demand a significant amount of political will.  

       

       

       




11/01/11
  • Yemen CP

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Yemen Corruption CP Cites

       

      Pressure for political reform restores U.S. credibility, undermines Al Qaeda, and solves instability in Yemen.

      Porges, 11/16/2010 (Marisa - policy adviser in the U.S. Treasury and Defense Departments, Saving Yemen, Foreign Affairs, p. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67008/marisa-l-porges/saving-yemen?page=show)

      Yet implementing these reform and

       in the Arabian Peninsula.

       

      --Only strong pressure creates an incentive for Saleh to reform.

      Boucek and Ottaway, 2010 (Christopher – associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program, and Marina – director of the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Stabilizing a Failing State in Yemen on the Brink, p. 99)

      The international effort to prevent

      no such pressure on the government of Yemen.

       

       

      --Leverage shapes Saleh’s behavior. He will drag his feet otherwise.

      Exum and Fontaine, November 2009 (Andrew - fellow at the Center for a New American Security, and Richard - senior fellow at CNAS and former staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, On the Knife’s Edge, Center for a New American Security, p. 5)

      Use diplomatic leverage. Since the Yemeni

       on several issues of pressing concern.

       

      CP solves the root cause of instability

      Alkebsi and Boucek, 9/30/2010 (Abdulwahab - regional director for Africa and MENA at the Center for International Private Enterprise, and Christopher - associate at the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Corruption in Yemen: Screening of Destructive Beast, p. http://carnegieendowment.org/2010/09/30/corruption-in-yemen-screening-of-destructive-beast/696)

      Corruption is the root cause of Yemen’s

       on counter-terrorism aid.

       




11/01/11
  • Kentucky - Rd 1

    • Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 1 | Opponent: Georgetown AM | Judge:

    • Orientalism K

      Democracy assistance entails a set of orientalist discourses focused on trying to ‘fix’ the Middle East and North Africa. These are defined according to western interests

      Wilkins 10 (Karin – Prof. at University of Austin – Texas, Associate Director at Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Ph.D. – Univ. of Pennsylvania, “Considering “Traditional Society” in the Middle East: Learning Lerner All Over Again”, 2010, Journal of Middle East Media, http://www2.gsu.edu/~wwwaus/LernerWilkins.pdf)

       

      This study questions to what extent Lerner’s vision of modernity still

      particularly over the long-term, does represent a notable departure from early development models.

       

      Orientalism is the root cause of war and genocide

      Batur 7 (Pinar - Vassar College, Handbook of the Sociology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, “Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide”)

       

      Albert Memmi argued that “We have no idea what the colonized

      The 21st century opened up with genocide, in Darfur

       

      Vote Neg to reject the affirmatives orientalist worldview – this is a pre-requisite to effective policy solutions

      Bilgin 4 (Pinar - assistant prof, IR, Bilkent U. PhD, IR, U Wales, Is the 'Orientalist' past the Future of Middle East Studies?, Third World Quarterly, Vol. 25, No. 2, 423-433, JSTOR)

       

      To go back to Little's argument about American Orientalism, the contrast between Kramer's and

      This is what Said sought to do in his lifetime.52

      UN CP

      Solves -

      US democracy assistance through the UNDEF solves – comparatively more credible

      Piccone, 9 (Theodore J., senior fellow and deputy director for Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution and an adviser to the Club of Madrid, “Enhance Democracy Assistance in the Americas through Multilateral Action”, The Brookings Institute, April 13, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/reports/2009/0413_summit_americas/0413_summit_americas_piccone.pdf)

       

      Internationalize democracy assistance.

      The United States seriously

      U.S.-controlled false multilateralism, Bennis declared.

       

      US engagement with the UN is key to effective multilateralism, preventing terrorism, Iran and North Korean proliferation and stabilizes Afghanistan, Iraq and multiple peacekeeping conflicts

      Brimmer, 11 (Esther - Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Organization Affairs, Revitalizing the United Nations and Multilateral Cooperation, 2/1, p. http://www.state.gov/p/io/rm/2011/155854.htm)

       

      So our discussion today is a perfect opportunity to review the Obama

      can leverage important contributions by other states.

       

      Only multilateral cooperation prevents great power wars that make extinction inevitable

      Dyer, 4 (Gwynne, former senior lecturer in war studies at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, 12/30/2004, The End of War, The Toronto Star, p. lexis)

       

      The "firebreak" against nuclear weapons use

      everybody loses.




11/02/11
0
  • Round Reports

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Round 2

      Neg: Georgia BS

      vs Whitman HZ

      Judge: Carly Wunderlich

       

      Off Case

       

                  Security K

                  Pressure CP

                  APEC Dip Focus DA

                  T—Material Transfer

       

      Case Args

       

                  Impact Defense

       

      Block Strategy

       

                  APEC DA

                  Security K

                  Case Defense

       

      2NR Strategy

       

                  Security K




11/11/11
  • APEC DA - 1NC Wake

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • Obama’s strategy is shifting from the Middle East to East Asia. The plan sidetracks Obama’s ability to push for engage APEC.

      Reuters, 11/1/2011 (

      AND

      /01/obama-asia-idUSN1E79T04A20111101)

      President Barack Obama, whose foreign policy agenda

      AND

      said Clinton has worked particularly hard on it.

      Diplomatic capital is finite. Even simple items undermines negotiation power and foreign policy.

      Walt, 7/27/2009 (

      AND

      _to_death_by_ducks)

      Moreover, trying to advance the ball on

      AND

      on their agenda easier to accomplish later on.

      The Bahrain dialogue will be time consuming.

      Eturbo News, 4/13/2011

      AND

      .worldtourismdirectory.com/news/9818)

      With a situation different from other countries experiencing

      AND

      limit the discussion, according to Ambassador Nonoo.

      APEC summit is critical to integrate China and make it an international stakeholder.

      Quinn and Mohammed, 11/7/

      AND

      )

      The United States must develop new transpacific trade

      AND

      higher set of international rules," he said.

      That escalates to US/China war.

      Liu, 8/20/2005 (

      AND

      /global_economy/GH20Dj01.html)

      US geopolitical hostility toward China will manifest itself

      AND

      threat, increasing the prospect for armed conflict.

      Extinction.

      The Straits Times, 6/25/

      AND

      in war over Taiwan, p. lexis)

      THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross

      AND

      , for China puts sovereignty above everything else.



      A successful APEC makes China a regional stakeholder and integrates them. Spills over to an FTAAP.

      Garrett, 10/31/2011 (

      AND

      -push/story-e6frg6ux-1226180847410)

      The Prime Minister's focus at CHOGM was on

      AND

      these key issues would be its admission price.




11/12/11
  • APEC DA - 1NR Impacts

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • A successful APEC summit signals Obama’s commitment to engagement in Asia.

      Robinson, 11/9/2011 (

      AND

      -on-Region-133572823.html)

      President Barack Obama leaves on Friday for Hawaii

      AND

      the Asia-Pacific region," Carney said.

      Engagement in Asia prevents multiple scenarios of nuclear war.

      Colby, 8/10/2011 (

      AND

      -liberal-empire/?all=true)

      But the pendulum shouldn’t be allowed to swing

      AND

      especially in light of rising regional security challenges.   

      APEC summit is key to climate change – solves green energy technology and climate reduction.

      Rogers, 11/8/2011 (

      AND

      Center for a New American Security, p.

      The annual Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC

      AND

      where world leaders will close the annual summit.

      Extinction.

      Tickell 8 (Oliver, Climate Researcher and

      AND

      /2008/aug/11/climatechange)

      We need to get prepared for four degrees

      AND

      degenerated into a squabble over national emission rights.




11/12/11
  • Districts Round 4

    • Tournament: | Round: | Opponent: | Judge:

    • A. Interpretation –

      Democracy Assistance is assistance conditioned on democratic reforms

      Collier 94 (Ellen C., Specialist in U.S. Foreign Policy Foreign Affairs and National Defense Division, “Democracy Building: The Foreign Policy Budget Request, Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, 4-12-94, http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAA490.pdf) 

       

      Another issue is which countries to assist in

      AND

      , this was a major reason.' 7

      B. Violation - The plan provides unconditional assistance to _________________.

      C. Standards

      1.  Topic Education – Affirmative’s can sidestep discussing democracy entirely if they are allowed to provide unconditional assistance without linking it to reforms, destroying topic specific education.

      2. Core Neg Ground – Unconditional affirmatives sidestep core negative strategies, such as internal political disads, NGO tradeoff arguments, alternative condition counterplans, and critiques of international negotiating.

      D. Voting Issue – Topicality is a voting issue to preserve competitive equity, the foundation of debate; plus its a rule at the NDT and so should be enforced throughout the year.

       

      1NC

      The United States Federal Government should offer to Syria to negotiate the return of the Golan Heights, convene an international conference to support Syria’s economy, including a relaxation of sanctions, and call on the Free Syrian Army to suspend their operations in exchange for a robust contingent of Arab and United Nations monitors to verify the Syrian army pullback and the release of political prisoners, a national reconciliation conference, and political reform for free and fair elections, legal reforms, and open media and security sectors.

      Assad will say yes – solves stability, political reform, and breaks the Syrian-Iran alliance.

      Noe, 2/6/2012 (

      AND

      -with-the-devil.html)

      Instead, Washington should adopt a realistic,

      AND

      splitting his government and controlling the resulting collapse.

       

      1NC

      Corporate tax will pass – Obama is bargaining

      Reuters 2/22 (Reuters, “Obama urges corporate tax cut, closing loopholes”, 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/22/us-usa-tax-corporate-idUSTRE81K25N20120222)

       

      President Barack Obama launched a dialogue with corporate

      AND

      tax proposals will largely amount to political messaging.

      The plan costs capital – even if they don’t spend money.

      Los Angeles Times, 4/12/2011 (Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition, p. http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)

      The Obama administration's efforts to use foreign aid

      AND

      resistance from appropriators in Congress, aides say.

      PC makes tax code reform successful

      Dixon 2-15 (Kim, “Obama plan would end dozens of business tax breaks,” http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/15/us-usa-economy-geithner-idUSTRE81D11F20120215)

      For example, Obama wants to end a

      AND

      pieces together," Democratic Senator Ron Wyden said.

      Corporate tax reform key to the economy – eliminates loopholes and reduces distortions for rich

      MNI 2/22 (Market News International – quoting Tim Geithner, “US's Geithner Text: Corp. Tax Reform Process Will Take Time”, 2012, https://mninews.deutsche-boerse.com/index.php/uss-geithner-text-corp-tax-reform-process-will-take-time?q=content/uss-geithner-text-corp-tax-reform-process-will-take-time)

       

      The following is the full text of U

      AND

      improve incentives for investing in the United States.

      Extinction

      Auslin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)

      What do these trends mean in the short

      AND

      small explosions that coalesce into a big bang.

       

      1NC

      Russia is protecting Syria from western involvement – their influence is high

      Lynch 12/15 (Colum – Foreign Policy, “Russia introduces watered-down resolution on Syria”, 2011, http://turtlebay.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/15/russia_introduces_watered_down_resolution_on_syria)

      For several months, Russia has protected Syria

      AND

      has felt the pressure of the international community."

      US assistance to Syrian opposition groups signals perception of the US taking the lead in Syria- crushes Russian influence in Syria

      Rogin 11 (Josh, Josh Rogin reports

      AND

      _administration_help_syria_now)

      The administration should also form an

      is better with America's Republicans." You can view a video of that protest march here:

      That sparks a US/Russian nuclear war

      Chamberlin 11 (Peter – Pacific Free Press, “A Systematic Smashing of Central Asia”, 12/31, lexis)

      Students of human nature understand that, in

      AND

      rule us, before it is too late.

       

      Case – Advantage 2

      Iran will not be aggressive – they will back down from direct confrontation.

      Savyon, 7/4/2011 (Ayelet – director of the Iranian Media Project at the Middle East Media Research Institute, Iran’s Defeat in Bahrain, p. http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5424.htm)

      Despite its image as a looming superpower,

      AND

      on both the regional and the global levels.

      Iran’s guiding principles is defined by regime survival and deterrence.

      Eisenstadt, August 2011 (Michael - director of the Military & Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, The Strategic Culture of the Islamic Republic of Iran, MES Monographs, No. 1, p. 3)

      In establishing this principle, Khomeini formalized the supremacy of raison d’etat over the tenets of Islam

      as the precept guiding Iranian decision-making

      AND

      while preventing a third strike against us.7

      -- Iran won’t be aggressive – too many checks in the system

       

      Boroujerdi 7 (Mehrzad, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program, “Iranian Nuclear Miasma”, Syracuse Law Review, 57 Syracuse L. Rev. 619, Lexis)

       

      The potential for groupthink miscalculations is also thwarted

      AND

      boldly offensive or miscalculated action less realistic.

       

      -- Iran has no interest in expansion

       

      Smeland 4 (Sean P., Visiting Fellow – Geneva Centre for Security Policy, “Countering Iranian Nukes: A European Strategy, Nonproliferation Review, Spring,

      http://www.gcsp.ch/e/publications/Security_Challenges/WMD/Academic_Papers/Smeland.pdf)

       

      If the Western allies are to succeed in

      AND

      possibly through its presence in Iraq or Afghanistan).

      Heg doesn’t prevent conflict

       

      Crawford 3 (Timothy W., Professor of Political Science – Boston College, Pivotal Deterrence: Third-Party Statecraft and the Pursuit of Peace, p. 209-210)

       

      Forward Engagement, Global Leadership, and U.S. Pivotal Deterrence

      As the preponderant power in a globalized and

      AND

      many deadly conflicts as it knits back together.

      Hegemony isn’t true – data’s on our side

      Fettweis, 11 (Christopher J., Department of Political Science, Tulane University, “Free Riding or Restraint? Examining European Grand Strategy”, 9/26, Comparative Strategy, 30:316–332, Ebsco)

       

      It is perhaps worth noting that there is

      AND

      think otherwise base their view on faith alone.

      The international system is resilient to great power conflict.

      Ikenberry, Summer 2011 (G. John

      AND

      -1.php?page=all)

      There are four reasons to think that some

      AND

      forces that keep the system anchored and stable.

      -- Isolationism inevitable – social welfare

       

      Mandelbaum 5 (Michael, Professor in the School of Advanced International Studies – Johns Hopkins University, “The Case for Goliath: How America Acts as the World’s Government in the Twenty-First Century, p. 184-186)

       

      The huge bill for entitlements as the twenty

      AND

      the government's financial obligations to its own citizens.

      Historically true heg doesn’t solve

      Layne 97 (Christopher, Visiting Professor – Naval Postgraduate School, From Preponderance to Offshore Balancing)

       

      Two critical objections could be lodged against an

      AND

      U.S. involvement in future wars.

       

       

      Case – Advantage 1

      Assad will survive – he has too many assets to be overthrown.

      Byman, 2/2/2012 (

      AND

      /finish_him_assad_syria)

      As world leaders huddle at the United Nations

      AND

      international military intervention is not on the table.

      Controlled collapse is a myth – any collapse of Assad will result in a violent lash out and escalates.

      Noe, 2/6/2012 (

      AND

      -with-the-devil.html)

      ALMOST one year after anti-government protests

      AND

      the Middle East would have for Western interests.

      Fast Assad collapse causes Syrian/Israeli war – turns case

      Ceren, 8/1/2011 (

      AND

      /01/syrian-collapse-israel/)

      But the continued stability of the Syrian regime

      AND

      will not cause Israeli politicians to overreact less.

      Iron hand – Assad will survive as long as he has bullets

      Tobin, 1/11/2012 (

      AND

      /11/assad-syria-fall/)

      As Michael Totten noted yesterday, speculation about

      AND

      to assume Assad is about to be ousted.

      -- No pandemic or extinction – history proves

       

      Easterbrook 3 (Gregg, Senior Fellow –

      AND

      =1&topic=&topic_set=)

       

      3. Germ warfare!Like chemical agents

      AND

      it seems unlikely to happen in the future.

       

      -- Tech hurdles prevent bioterror

      Mueller 6 (John, Chair of National

      AND

      State University, Overblown, p. 24)

       

      Not only has the science about chemical and

      AND

      technological hurdles that greatly inhibit their effective use.

       

      -- No acquisition

       

      Burton and Stewart 8 (Fred and Scott

      AND

      Busting the Anthrax Myth”, 7-30,

      http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/busting_anthrax_myth)

       

      Operating in the badlands along the Pakistani-

      AND

      question — the intense concern about such programs.

       

      -- Risk decreasing

       

      New Scientist 8 (7-26, Lexis)

       

      First up for consideration was an act of

      AND

      licence, they are reported to the authorities.

       

      -- Dispersal problems block

       

      Scherer 3 (John L., Editor of

      AND

      _2692_131/ai_96268286)

       

      Chemical, biological, and nuclear (CBN

      AND

      from this compound would have proved extremely difficult.

       

      Conventional capabilities come first – no risk of Samson option

      Maoz 3 (Zeev, “The Mixed

      AND

      . 28, No. 2, Autumn,

      http://www.jstor.org/stable/4137468)

       

      Israel's  nuclear  policy  is  fraught  with  paradoxes, 

      AND

      concerning  the  wisdom  of  maintaining  its nuclear  capability.

       

      Israel won’t use the Samson option – security assurances are met – their evidence doesn’t take into account current geopolitical realities

      Cirincione 5 (Joe, Senior Vice President

      AND

      /StoryId.aspx?StoryId=3217)

       

      No one would deny the serious internal security

      AND

      one weapon that could offset its conventional superiority. 

      2NC - Grand Bargain CP

      Perm links to the fast collapse DA – perm pushes too hard.

      Noe, 5/31/2011 (

      AND

      -possible_b_868383.html)

      As a result of this idea vacuum,

      AND

      dangers of the "accelerated collapse" policy).

      A strong opposition causes Assad collapse

      Christian Science Monitor, 9/14/

      AND

      -Syrians-still-support-Assad)

      No 'clear alternative' from the opposition The remaining

      AND

      did, it would signal a faster downfall.”

       

      AT: Israel Says No

      Reaching a deal changes Israeli public opinion to support the plan

      International Crisis Group, 4/10/

      AND

      No. 63, p. 12-13

       

      That said, public views that have changed

      AND

      there will be a similar sea-change

       

      U.S. influence is critical to bring Israel to the table

      Dov Waxman, Assistant Professor of Political Science

      AND

      2007, The Washington Quarterly, p. lexis

       

      Israel now stands at a crossroads. As

      AND

      Iran, Islamic extremism, and jihadism. n30

       

      Only intense American diplomacy can complete negotiations

      Uri Sagie, Former Head of the IDF

      AND

      org/Pubs/sagie_01.html

       

      Israel and Syria will need intensive American help

      AND

      . Both Israel and Syria have great expectations.

       

       

       

       

      Solves 2NC

      Solves Syrian democracy while avoiding the accelerated collapse net benefit.

      Noe, 5/31/2011 (

      AND

      -possible_b_868383.html)

      As a result of this idea vacuum,

      AND

      dangers of the "accelerated collapse" policy).

       

       

       

      AT: Say No – Solves Civil War

      We still solve even if Assad says no – causes a gradual collapse.

      Noe, 5/31/2011 (

      AND

      -possible_b_868383.html)

      Either way, at this point -- even

      AND

      for all Syrians an achievable and liveable reality.

       

       

       

       

      Counterplan solves Iran

      Roberts 12 (David- Deputy Director RUSI

      AND

      )

       

      On the darker side of diplomacythere

      AND

      the broad status quo in Syria be maintained.

       

      Economic and political incentives separate Syria from Iran

      Remba 9 (Gidon D. Remba-

      AND

      )

       

      Obama hopes to woo Syria out of Iran’s

      AND

      , will be more firmly anchored than ever before

       




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