1NC
T
Democracy Assistance is assistance conditioned on democratic reforms
Collier 94 (Ellen C., Specialist in
AND
/pdf_docs/PCAAA490.pdf)
Another issue is which countries to assist in
AND
, this was a major reason.' 7
DA
SKFTA will pass – political capital is key to resolve the TAA – that’s key to passage
Palmer 9/2 (Doug, Reuters
AND
-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902)
After a slow start that has frustrated U
AND
fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Bipartisan opposition to democracy assistance for Libya
Emery 8-23-11 (Theo, Staff Writer – Boston Globe, “Congress could resist additional aid to Libya,” http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/08/congress-could-resist-additional-aid-libya/DMmIHbENjJ0A6QBAednf0M/index.html)
After protests erupted in Libya early this year
AND
plus we can’t afford it,” Frank said.
Rejection causes Korean war - it’s a key test of U.S. commitment to the region
Wharton 11 (Knowledge@Wharton, “
AND
/article.cfm?articleid=2671)
Now it seems as if the pessimists may
AND
President has put his reputation on the line."
Korean war causes extinction
Hayes and Green 10 (Peter, Professor
AND
/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf)
The international community is increasingly aware that cooperative
AND
that warrants priority consideration from the international community.
And failure collapses overall leadership - destroys all allied relationships
Mandel 10 (Seth, Foreign Affairs Writer
AND
-enact-the-colombia-trade)
Coincidentally, Gibbs announced the agreement would not
AND
-creating trade deals among the protectionist unions.
This should be bigger news than it is
AND
—and a well deserved one at that.
If Obama is unable to do that,
AND
then we can't be counted on, period.
DA
US renewed commitment to Pakistani economic assistance
AFP, 11 (“US renews commitment to
AND
/business-a-economy.html)
WASHINGTON: The United States on Thursday renewed
AND
priorities and make sure that they match Pakistan's.
Aff’s funding forces a tradeoff within the ESF budget
POMED, 11 (Project on Middle East
AND
-fy11-appropriations-act.html/)
Speaking on the wave of democratic protests in
AND
from Economic Support Funds intended for other programming.
ESF funding is key to Pakistani economic growth
Kronstadt and Epstein, 11 (Susan B
AND
/crs/row/R41856.pdf)
The Economic Support Fund (ESF), $
AND
FY2012 request – $20.0 million)
That causes regional instability, terror, economic collapse, and global war
Walayat 10 (Nadeem, Editor – Market
AND
.co.uk/Article16543.html)
During 2009 the 2600 terrorist attacks resulted in
AND
Depression ultimately resulted in the Second World War.
CP
Text: The European Union should provide rule of law assistance to the National Transitional Council in Libya.
EU democracy assistance solves and avoids backlash
Hill, 11 (Steven, Writer at
AND
/index.php?id=302)
The Arab Spring is a historic moment of
AND
Mideast power balance has tipped somewhat toward Iran.
Hegemony
US democracy assistance triggers a backlash – Libyans don’t trust the intentions of individual nations
Anderson, 11 (Lisa, President of
AND
-to-help-Libya-.aspx)
But it will not be easy to restore
AND
like Amnesty International, or Human Rights Watch.
US has no vital interests with Libya
Walt, 11 (Stephen M., Academic
AND
_we_do_about_libya)
For starters, let's acknowledge that the United
AND
in a bombing raid back in the 1980s.
Focusing on Libya distracts away from more important factors to stability
Gelb, 11 (Leslie H. Gelb
AND
-and-americas-needs.html)
Inevitably, the Obama team has been spending
AND
sense is Libya a moral or strategic domino.
Heg doesn’t solve war
Barbara Conry, Foreign Policy analyst at CATO, 97
[“U.S. Global Leadership,” http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-267.html]
Other proponents of U.S. political
AND
did in Somalia and Bosnia. [59]
Heg is resilient
Wohlforth 7 (William, Professor of Government
AND
.edu/articles/1611/3/)
US military forces are stretched thin, its
AND
and tap potentially large wellsprings of latent power.
Isolationism inevitable – social welfare
Mandelbaum 5 (Michael, Professor in the
AND
First Century, p. 184-186)
The huge bill for entitlements as the twenty
AND
the government's financial obligations to its own citizens.
Terrorism
No attacks – terrorists are weak
Mueller 9 (John, Professor of Political
AND
-dangerous-are-the-taliban)
In addition, al Qaeda has yet to
AND
its capabilities are far inferior to its desires."
Risk of terrorism low and falling
Brookings 8 (Institution, Independent Research and
AND
/2008/0221_terrorism.aspx)
One participant argued that terrorism presents minimal cause
AND
Muslim community were particularly relevant to this debate.
Resentment and terrorism are inevitable
Brooks and Wohlforth 2 (Stephen, Assistant
AND
Foreign Affairs, July / August, Lexis)
Some might question the worth of being at
AND
and coordinated action against them would be reduced.
Deterrence checks terrorism
Mueller 6 (John, Professor of Political
AND
Foreign Affairs, September / October, Lexis)
One reason al Qaeda and "al Qaeda
AND
to less than one percent after the attack.
-Media and gov exaggerate
Eland 07 Senior Fellow and director of the Center on Peace & Liberty @ Independent Institute, Ivan, “The Terror Threat in Perspective” http://antiwar.com/eland/?articleid=10702
U.S. State Department statistics show
AND
been a willing accomplice to the administration effort.
-Terrorists cant acquire, build, or deliver a bomb
Chapman 08 Steve Chapman, reporter and editorial writer for Chicago Tribune, 2/8 2008 [RealClearPolitics, “The Implausibility of Nuclear Terrorism”]
But remember: After Sept. 11,
AND
escape, only one thing has to go wrong
Solvency
Oil reserves and demographic factors prevent solvency
Mulligan, 11 (Casey B., economics
AND
-oil-wealth-undercuts-democracy/)
Even as the United States and its allies
AND
as Libya has valuable oil in the ground.
Corruption prevents effective democratic aid
Muqawama, 11 (Abu, “The
AND
-post-gadhafi-libya.html)
This is altogether different than the challenges Libyans
AND
bureaucracy capable of redistributing resources within the society.
2NC Case
Backlash Turn – 2NC
Democracy aid provides a net loss in democratization. Backlash outweighs the gains of aid.
Goldsmith, Summer/Fall 2007 (Arthur
AND
. 2, p. 6-7)
A final way outsiders can possibly encourage democratization
AND
is a more imperfect science than generally acknowledged.
Plan only strengthens Gaddafi – only humanitarian assistance avoids a backlash
Zunes, 11 (Stephen, professor of
AND
-tread-carefully-uprising-continues68033)
Given this history, it is important that
AND
, it must come from the people themselves.
Democracy assistance to Libya only empowers radicals undermining the transition
Paul, 11 (Ron, US House
AND
-resentment-and-anti-americanism/)
Last week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
AND
purpose of US government in the first place.
Plan causes backlash to western democracy – disunity within opposition movement
Friedman, 11 (George, founder and
AND
-libya-west-narrative-democracy)
As we have pointed out, the Libyan
AND
power, and they tried to seize it.
Ext. – Not Vital Interest
No impact and can’t solve without land invasion
Kinzer, 11 (Stephen, “Why
AND
/mar/09/libya-usforeignpolicy)
Perhaps the appeal of the no-fly
AND
", and adopt prudent restraint in its place.
Ext – Doesn’t Solve Conflict
Heg doesn’t prevent conflict
Crawford 3 (Timothy W., Professor of
AND
of Peace, p. 209-210)
Forward Engagement, Global Leadership, and U.S. Pivotal Deterrence
As the preponderant power in a globalized and
AND
many deadly conflicts as it knits back together.
Historically true
Layne 97 (Christopher, Visiting Professor – Naval Postgraduate School, From Preponderance to Offshore Balancing)
Two critical objections could be lodged against an
AND
U.S. involvement in future wars.
Ext – Low Risk Terrorism
States won’t give it
John Mueller 08, department of political science at Ohio State University, 1/1/2008, The Atomic Terrorist, p. http://polisci.osu.edu/faculty/jmueller/APSACHGO.PDF
A favorite fantasy of imaginative alarmists envisions that
AND
not approve (including on the donor itself).
Low-risk of terrorism – Limited capabilities, inevitable mistakes, and conservative tactics.
Michael Levi 08, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, January/February, 2008, Stopping Nuclear Terrorism, Foreign Affairs, p. lexis
WHEN STRATEGIES for preventing nuclear terrorism rely on
AND
in which those measures might theoretically be evaded.
And it’s counterproductive to their goals.
John Mueller 06, Professor of Political Science @ Ohio State University, 2006, Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct, p. lexis
One reason al Qaeda and "al Qaeda
AND
vehement rejection of al Qaeda's strategy and methods.
Ext Resentment Inevitable
Nuclear terrorism won’t cause extinction.
Easterbrook 03 [Gregg, The New Republic Editor, Nov. 7, http://www.wired.com/archive/11.07/doomsday.html]
If we're talking about doomsday - the end
AND
future, they would probably represent an adaptation.
Ext – Media and Gov Exag
And – even if they win its not – terrorists are too afraid of backlash to attack
Mueller 06 Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University [John “Is There Still A Terrorist Threat?” Foreign Affairs, September/October (http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060901facomment85501/john-mueller/is-there-still-a-terrorist-threat.html?mode=print)]
One reason al Qaeda and "al Qaeda
AND
to less than one percent after the attack.
Ext – Lack Materials
lack materials and experience.
Atlschul 03 [Jess, Editorial Assistant, Journal of International Studies, Aug. 19, http://www.jinsa.org/articles/articles.html/function/view/categoryid/170/documentid/2176/history/3,2360,652,170,2176]
There are conflicting reports about how plausible it
AND
some hydrodynamics; electrical circuitry; and others."
Politics
Overview
- SKFTA outweighs and turns the case:
a) a) Draws in great powers
Schieffer 8 US Ambassador to Japan [J
AND
, Vital Speeches of the Day, ebsco]
We should remember that Asia is the last
AND
nuclear holocaust where hundreds of millions would perish.
b) Hostility and destructive power
Hoge 4 Foreign Affairs editor (James,
AND
)
This time, the populous states of Asia
AND
are huge and will challenge the West's adaptability.
C. Population centers
May 97 Stanford University Freeman Spogli Institute for
AND
," The Washington Quarterly, l/n]
The unpalatable facts, to Europeans and North
AND
leave most of the civilized world devastated.
US/South Korean relations stop terrorism
Snyder 9 (Scott, Director – Center
AND
_snyder_pursuingcompvision_web.pdf)
Counterterrorism
The need to develop capacity to develop effective
AND
challenge U.S.-ROK mutual interests.
US/South Korean relations stop terrorism
Snyder 9 (Scott, Director – Center
AND
_snyder_pursuingcompvision_web.pdf)
Counterterrorism
The need to develop capacity to develop effective
AND
challenge U.S.-ROK mutual interests.
SKFTA DA – Will Pass – 2NC
Top of agenda – passes Monday
AFP 9/16 (AFP – News Agency, “US Senate eyes progress on stalled trade deals”, 2011, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iminzWDVGuhwffBQW5YQE2DInBrQ?docId=CNG.b6d207691ba28c0711d32cc4f2496bd7.281)
WASHINGTON — US Senate Majority Leader Harry
AND
unclear exactly what the next step would be.
No roadblocks once TAA passes
NAWG 9/16 (National Association for Wheat Growers, “Senate deal could prompt movement on pending FTAs”, 2011, http://southeastfarmpress.com/government/senate-deal-could-prompt-movement-pending-ftas)
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-
AND
send the FTAs to Capitol Hill for consideration.
TAA is passing next week – paves way for SKFTA
Needham 9/14 (Vicki – The Hill, “GOP increases pressure on Obama to move trade deals”, 2011, http://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/181677-boeing-stays-out-of-fray-over-gops-nlrb-bill)
The latest pressure from the GOP came a
AND
House Republicans do not like the TAA program.
Bipartisan support
Palmer 9/13 (Doug – Reuters, “Momentum builds for U.S. action on trade deals”, 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/13/us-usa-trade-deals-idUSTRE78C7QW20110913?feedType=RSS&feedName=domesticNews)
But Representative Kevin Brady, a Texas Republican
AND
been sitting on Obama's desk since January 2009.
Vote Count and TAA approval
Reuters 9/8 (“U.S
AND
-usa-trade-deals-idUSTRE7874WE20110908)
A top U.S. business group
AND
key members of the House and the Senate.
Job agenda – Obama pushing and businesses are
AND
-optimistic-about-trade-pacts)
U.S. business groups voiced renewed
AND
passed by mid-October, he said.
Ratification happens this month – both countries
AND
/service.php3?biid=2011091077078)
The U.S. Congress has begun
AND
however, including the passage of additional bills.
[Insert jobs]
GOP will block – won’t reach a vote
Rubin and Rowley 9-16 (Richard
AND
-for-jobs-plan.html)
Republican lawmakers are rejecting President Barack Obama’s $
AND
-raising proposals haven’t advanced in the past.
Vote is Monday – top priority
Ryan 9/16 (Josiah – The Hill, “Cloture vote scheduled on Trade Adjustment Assistance”, 2011, http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/182045-cloture-vote-scheduled-on-trade-adjustment-assistance-)
The Senate is set to take a preliminary
AND
congressional Democrats have made it a top priority.
SKFTA is part of the jobs agenda – top of the docket
Gray 9/7 (Lacy – Food Forethought, “Congress Returns”, 2011, http://www.aginfo.net/index.cfm/event/report/id/Food-Forethought-20105)
Congress returns from their summer recess this week
AND
can just get through these free trade agreements”.
Libya Lx – Bully Pulpit 2nc
Obama will have to use the bully pulpit to expand democracy assistance for Libya
Haas, 9-13 (Lawrence J
AND
-5666-9dca-145d96d9cc76.html)
For Libya, President Obama should use his
AND
-building efforts that it seeks to assist.
That drains his finite political capital and forces agenda trade-offs
Green, ’09 (David Michael, professor
AND
/2009/05/26-4)
The simple fact is that America is a
AND
health care you cannot also spend on Iraq.
A2: Funding = Small – Libya Specific
The debate over intervention in Libya will spill over – Even if the funding is appropriated already Congress will still backlash on other issues.
Emery 8-23-11 (Theo
AND
)
The crux of debate over Libya up until
AND
we going to build in any one time?”
AT: NO PC
Obama has sufficient political capital in the context of SKFTA.
Keilar 9/14 (Briana – CNN White House Correspondent, “Obama to GOP: You're either with me, or you're against me.”, 2011, http://whitehouse.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/14/obama-to-gop-youre-either-with-me-or-youre-against-me/)
It's quite the role reversal. As the
AND
appears the President Obama is going all in.
A2: Not Key to Relations
RELATIONS ARE ONLY RESILIENT IN THE WORLD OF STRONG TRADE RELATIONS – SKFTA KEY.
Winder 7. [Joseph AB, Fmr
AND
]
A successful negotiation of the KORUS FTA and
AND
territorial designs on the country has not disappeared.
