1NC 1

A. Interpretations

1.  Its means belonging to

Macmillan Dictionary 09 [pg. http://www.macmillandictionary.com/dictionary/british/its]

belonging or relating to a thing, idea, place, animal etc. 

2.  USFG limits them to democracy assistance that belongings to either Congress, Executive or Judiciary

USLegal.com 11 [“United States Federal Government Law & Legal Definition,” pg. http://definitions.uslegal.com/u/united-states-federal-government/]

The United States Federal Government is established by

AND

reserved to the States or to the people.

3. For means that the target country must be the exclusive destination of the assistance

Free Dictionary 11 [pg. http://www.thefreedictionary.com/for]

for  (fôr; fr when unstressed)

1.

a. Used to indicate the object, aim, or purpose of an action or activity: trained for the ministry; put the house up for sale; plans to run for senator.

b. Used to indicate a destination: headed off for town.

B. Violations

Funding an intermediary is an attempt to foster a purely independent private action. The assistance is not the USFG’s  

Metzger 03 - Professor of Law @ Columbia Law School [Gillian E. Metzger, “PRIVATIZATION AS DELEGATION,” COLUMBIA LAW REVIEW, Vol. 103, 2003]

When exercised by public actors, control over

AND

the ultimate focus. Pg. 1399-1400

We have the only contextualized ev on this question

Spence 04 – Currently the National Security Advisor and Deputy National Security Advisor in the White House [Matthew Spence (D.Phil., International Relations from Oxford University (04)), “Policy Coherence and Incoherence: The Domestic Politics of American Democracy Promotion,” Workshop on Democracy Promotion Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford University, October 4-5, 2004, pg. http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20741/Spence-_CDDRL_10-4_draf1.pdf]

Faced with these constraints, USAID pursued a

AND

support rarely came. Pg. 23-24

C. Vote Neg

1. Topic Education and limits are both DAs to their interpretation. Use of intermediaries makes coop with every other country and international organization topical.  There are advocates for leveraging democracy assistance to the Mideast to foster international cooperation.  This will makes topic about relations with every country except those designated by the resolution.

2. Strategic differentiation. It makes it impossible for us to develop a case hit against every possible intermediary

Carothers 09 – Vice-president and Director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [Thomas Carothers, “Democracy Assistance: Political vs. Developmental?,” Journal of Democracy, Volume 20, Number 1 January 2009]

As the field of international democracy assistance ages

AND

: the political approach and the developmental approach.

2

SKFTA will pass – votes are coming around

Hooper 9-10 [Molly K., writer for The Hill, “Obama-backed trade pacts could be heavy lift for House GOP” http://thehill.com/homenews/house/180751-obama-backed-trade-pacts-could-be-heavy-lift-for-house-gop]

And anti-trade interest groups are poised

AND

deputy whips have been sounding out lawmakers informally.

Capitals key.

Wharton 11 [Wharton School’s Online Business Journal – Editorial Post – including the Deupty Dean & Executive Director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Business School, U.S.-South Korea Trade Pact: A Turning Point for American Exports?, http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2671]

The Tea Party Factor During the fall election

AND

of Republican economic and foreign policy for decades.

Obama will get involved in Democracy Assistance – and it’ll cost capital

LAPPIN  2 – 1 – 10   PhD candidate, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven in Belgium, has participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, Carter Center, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade under the JoinEU-SEE program Richard Lappin,  Obama and Democracy Assistance: Challenges and Responses, February 1, 2010, http://soc.kuleuven.be/iieb/docs/2010/20100201-cceia.pdf

The Obama Record on Democracy Assistance Prior to

AND

preserve of U.S. foreign policy.

SKFTA key to the alliance – solves Korean instability

Hubbard 11 [Thomas, Senior Director for Asia, McLarty Associates and Former Ambassador to South Korea, 4-7-11, Congressional Documents and Publications, “House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade Hearing - Brady Announces Third in a Series of Three Hearings on the Pending, Job-Creating Trade Agreements: South Korea Trade Agreement”]

The United States-South Korea Free Trade

AND

longstanding leadership position in a rapidly changing Asia.

Korean instability risks rapid escalation to nuclear war

STRATFOR 10 [“North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula,” 5-26-10,

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100526_north_korea_south_korea_military_balance_peninsula]

But no one, of course, is

AND

might be if the situation escalates much further.

Passage sparks global trade

Hill 07 (Christopher, US Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs assistant secretary, “The United States-South Korea FTA: The Foreign Policy Implications.”, 6-13, http://seoul.usembassy.gov/413_061407.html)

Fourth, and finally, the KORUS FTA

AND

of Korea’s increasingly positive role in the world.

FLIPS the aff & causes extinction

PANZNER  08  Faculty – New York Institute of Finance.  Specializes in Global Capital Markets.  MA Columbia

[Michael J. Panzner,  Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, Revised and Updated Edition [Paperback], p. 137-138]

Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of

AND

as the beginnings of a new world war.

3

The European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights should offer all necessary funding to the National Endowment for Democracy to provide democracy assistance to Egypt for assistance in legal education and civil society building for the Arab Republic of Egypt.

The CP solves better - EU-NED coop prevents backlash to US assistance

Gershman 06 – President of the National Endowment for Democracy [Carl Gershman, “The Backlash against Democracy Assistance,” Testimony to the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, Jun 8, 2006, pg. http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-remarks-and-presentations/060806]

The new repressive climate in certain states has

AND

of democracy assistance and also leverage additional resources.

Democracy cooperation stabilizes the Black Sea region – It’s a conduit for instability throughout Eurasia

Garber 08 - Deputy Assistant Secretary of State [Judy Garber, “Transatlantic Perspectives on Black Sea Region: U.S. seeks to promote cooperation among countries in the region,” Keynote Address at the Woodrow Wilson Center Conference, 10 June 2008, pg. http://www.america.gov/st/texttrans-english/2008/June/20080612162948eaifas0.3606836.html#ixzz1S5cj0Z00]

The Black Sea lies at a strategic crossroads

AND

Central Asia, and the broader Middle East.

Escalation in the Black sea region causes extinction

Amineh 03 – Professor of International Relations @ Webster University [Mehdi Parvizi Amineh, Ph.D (Ph. D in Poli Sci @ University of Amsterdam & Senior research fellow and Programme director of the Energy Programme Asia @ International Institute for Asian Studies) “Globalisation, Geopolitics and Energy Security in Central Eurasia and the Caspian Region,” Hand-out of lecture held on June 19 2003, Clingendael International Energy Programme, pg. http://www.clingendael.nl/ciep/events/20030619/20030619_amineh.pdf]

The increasing involvement of the US, the

AND

, and the war and crisis in Iraq.

*CEA = post-Soviet Central Eurasia

4

Current US democracy rhetoric concedes to Saudi interests – they won’t tolerate US-imposed democratic reform

Karasik 8/1/11 (Theodore, Director of Research and Development at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai and Beirut. “A Conversation with Dr. Thedore Karasik of INEGMA on the ‘Arab Spring’.” Saudi-US Relations Information Service, August 1, 2011. http://www.susris.com/2011/08/01/a-conversation-with-dr-theodore-karasik-of-inegma-on-the-arab-spring/.)

 SUSRIS: Let’s talk about the trajectory

AND

, but at their own pace and scope.

Saudi Arabia’s committed to controlling Egyptian reform – they’ll challenge US efforts

Strasser 11 (Max, news editor at the English edition of Al-Masry Al Youm, Egypt’s leading independent newspaper, has written for Foreign Policy, the Christian Science Monitor, among others. “Egypt’s Foreign Policy Shift Could Face Saudi Roadbloack.” World Politics Review, May 12, 2011. http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8821/egypts-foreign-policy-shift-could-face-saudi-roadblock.)

 The Saudis have already proved their commitment

AND

when it perceives a threat to regional stability.

It drives Saudis to proliferate

Guzansky 8/1/11 (Yoel, research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. "TEHRAN TESTS SAUDIS' NERVE ON NUKES", LEXIS, SRM)

UNTIL recently it appeared that US security guarantees

AND

a cost of more than $US300 billion.

Saudi prolif spurs regional arms race

Bowman 08 (Bradley, International Affairs Fellow at the CFR. “Chain Reaction: Avoiding a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East.” Report to the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, February 2008. http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CPRT-110SPRT39674/html/CPRT-110SPRT39674.htm.)

A Saudi nuclear weapon might also spur a

AND

weapon and take steps to decrease this likelihood.

Middle East prolif escalates and goes nuclear

Edelman et al 11 (Eric S., Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Andrew Krepinevich, President of the CSBA. Evan Montgomery, Research Fellow at the CSBA. “The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran: The Limits of Containment.” Foreign Affairs, January 1, 2011. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran.)

More important, emerging nuclear powers in the

AND

party, potentially triggering a regional nuclear war.

5

The Republic of Turkey should substantially increase its assistance in legal education and civil society building for the Arab Republic of Egypt

Turkish leadership is unraveling – independent action on the Arab Spring revives credibility and prevents Turkey from realigning with the West.

Rosenberg 11 [David, Turkey’s Middle East drive falters in Arab Spring, http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=219707]

The rival Palestinian factions, Hamas and Fatah

AND

neglected that in favor of the Middle East.”

Perceived closeness with the US undermines Turkish soft power and its democratic model.  It paves the way for Iranian hegemony

Ayoob 11 - Professor of International Relations @ Michigan State University [Mohammed Ayoob, “The Middle East's Turko-Persian Future, Sunday, Iran Review, January 16, 2011, pg. http://www.iranreview.org/content/Documents/The_Middle_East_s_Turko_Persian_Future.htm]

According to one of the most reliable polls

AND

inexorably heading toward a Turko-Persian future.

Unchecked Iran guarantees war with the US

Smith ‘7 [Travis Smith, “Offensive Realism, Hegemony and Iran,” Theory & Analysis, Sunday, February 25, 2007, pg.http://theory-and-analysis.blogspot.com/2007/02/offensive-realism-hegemony-and-iran.html]

As Mearsheimer mentions in The Tragedy of Great

AND

power war on a scale implying the world.

Turkish democracy promotion avoids backlash

Kirisci 10 [Kemal Kirisci, professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Boğaziçi University, “Diffusing liberal market and democratic values: Assessing Turkey’s “soft power” in transforming its neighborhood” 2010 APSA Meeting, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1644657]

One striking aspect of Turkey’s transformed external relations

AND

promotion efforts among especially the Arab public.108

US renewed commitment to Pakistani economic assistance
AFP, 11 (“US renews commitment to economic support for Pakistan”, July 15, Business Recorder,http://www.brecorder.com/pakistan/business-a-economy.html)

WASHINGTON: The United States … make sure that they match Pakistan's.

Aff’s funding forces a tradeoff within the ESF budget
POMED, 11 (Project on Middle East Democracy, “Summary and Highlights of FY11 Appropriations Act”, April 17,http://pomed.org/blog/2011/04/summary-and-highlights-of-fy11-appropriations-act.html/)

Speaking on the wave of democratic protests in the Middle East,… Funds intended for other programming.

ESF funding is key to Pakistani economic growth
Kronstadt and Epstein, 11 (Susan B., Specialist in Foreign Policy, K. Alan, Specialist in South Asian Affairs, “Pakistan: U.S. Foreign Assistance”, June 7, Congressional Research Service, www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41856.pdf)

The Economic Support Fund (ESF), $1,360 ….humanitarian crises. (FY2010 – $10.0 million; FY2012 request – $20.0 million)

That causes regional instability, terror, economic collapse, and global war
Walayat 10 (Nadeem, Editor – Market Oracle, “Pakistan Collapse Could Trigger Global Great Depression and World War III”, The Market Oracle, 1-16, http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16543.html)  

During 2009 the 2600 terrorist attacks …resulted in the Second World War.

CP Text: The United States Millennium Challenge Corporation should allocate Millennium Challenge Account funds to Syria if Syria provides political organization assistance for Syrian opposition groups.

Only development aid can promote long-term democratic growth. The MCC is key to civil society and good governance.

Beard 09 (Elle, Project Manager for US Programs @ Atlantic Partnership and Presidential Fellow @ Univ. of Michigan Ford School of Public Policy, "Are We Doing Enough? Sustainable Democracy Promotion and the Millennium Challenge Corporation," http://www.thepresidency.org/storage/documents/Fellows2009/University_of_Michigan_Beard.pdf)

Democracy is defined by the US legislative branch

AND

preservation and growth of democratic institutions and practices.

AND

The CP is a strong incentive for democratic reform. Ukraine and Turkey prove incentive strategies work.

Cook 05 (Steven, Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, "The Right Way to Promote Arab Reform," Foreign Affairs, March/April, http://www.cfr.org/democracy-promotion/right-way-promote-arab-reform/p8115)

The best way to do so would be

AND

, demand a significant amount of political will. 

NC1NC

T

A. Interpretation - Democracy Assistance is unconditional provision of material

Lappin 10 (Richard, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade, holds an MA in Conflict and Peace Studies from the University of Leuven, “What we talk about when we talk about Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,” Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, Vol 4, Issue 1, 2010)

Democracy assistance can be most accurately … broader democracy promotion paradigm.

And democracy assistance must have the primary purpose of fostering democracy.

Lappin 10 (Richard, Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies at the University of Leuven, visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Belgrade, “What we talk about when we talk about Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches to Democratisation,” Central European Journal of International and Security Studies, Vol 4, Issue 1, 2010)

Such fastidiousness on the boundaries …post-conflict democracy assistance can be drawn.

B. Violation – The plan establishes conditions on assistance and is for the purpose of fostering economic security, not democracy assistance

C. Standards

Predictability – There are an infinite number of conditions that could be imposed. The aff could condition democracy assistance on the establishment of a military base, or the signing of a peace treaty, making negative preparation a nightmare.

Topic Education – The aff shifts the focus from democracy assistance to the condition, preventing in depth case debates about how the assistance facilitates or damages ongoing democratic progress. This undermines education about the topic, forcing neg reliance on generics.

D. Voting Issue – Topicality is a voting issue to preserve competitive equity, the foundation of debate; and is also a rule at the NDT and so should be enforced throughout the year.

China DA

U.S. – Sino relations are going well now – but challenges can tank this

Lavin 6/28 (Franklin – Former Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade, M.S. in Chinese Language , “Consequential China: U.S.–China Relations in a Time of Transition”, 2011, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/06/consequential-china-us-china-relations-in-a-time-of-transition)

I mentioned that I have had the … of foreign policy management.

Egypt democratization spurs Chinese opposition – fear of internal instability

Wong and Barboza 11 (Edward and David – New York Times writers, “Wary of Egypt Unrest, China Censors Web”, 1/31, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/01/world/asia/01beijing.html?_r=1)

BEIJING — In another era, China’s leaders … have their own particular problems.”

Relations stop global nuclear war

Conable and Lampton 93 (Barber B., President Emeritus – World Bank and David, President – National Committee, “China: The Coming Power”, Foreign Affairs, December / January, Lexis)

Regionally American interests are … the region attaches to building positive ties to the P.R.C.

Israel DA

Military control is at a breaking point – any perceived loss of power causes lashout

Allen 11 (Michael, Editor of Democracy Digest, “Egypt’s democrats divided over military’s role and continuing protests,” Democracy Digest, 7-25, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/07/egypts-democrats-divided-over-militarys-role-and-continuing-protests/)

Egypt’s government today pledged to …other institution would always do a better job.

Democracy aid causes military freak out

Richter and Fleishman 11 (Paul, reporter in Washington, and Jeffrey, reporter in Cairo,  “U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way,” LA Times, 8-10, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811)

Six months after pro-democracy … $165 million has been distributed.

The military will bash Israel – escalates to war

Zahran 11 (Mudar, Palestinian writer, “Egypt's Military Council Toying with Israel,” Hudson Institute, 9-9, http://www.hudson-ny.org/2410/egypt-military-council-israel)

While the Egyptian revolution was still boiling, … for a million-man-protests for this cause.

Extinction

Morgan 9 (Dennis Ray, Professor of Current Affairs – Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, South Korea, “World on Fire: Two Scenarios of the Destruction of Human Civilization and Possible Extinction of the Human Race”, Futures, 41(1), p. 685)

In a remarkable website on nuclear war, … environment and fragile ecosphere as well.

UN CP

Text: The United States Federal Government should propose the offering of a Free Trade Agreement to Egypt on the condition of Egyptian democratic reforms to the United Nations Democracy Fund Advisory Board.  The United States Federal Government should provide all financial and technical assistance for the United Nations Democracy Fund to implement the proposal.  

Competes –

Tests ‘Its’ which is possessive

English Grammar, 5 (Glossary of English Grammar Terms, http://www.usingenglish.com/glossary/possessive-pronoun.html)

Mine, yours, his, hers, its, …shows that it belongs to me.)

Counterplans that test the resolution are key to predictable ground

Solves -

US democracy assistance through the UNDEF solves – comparatively more credible

Piccone, 9 (Theodore J., senior fellow and deputy director for Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution and an adviser to the Club of Madrid, “Enhance Democracy Assistance in the Americas through Multilateral Action”, The Brookings Institute, April 13, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/reports/2009/0413_summit_americas/0413_summit_americas_piccone.pdf)

Internationalize democracy assistance.

The United States … with its citizens on priority  projects.

Counterplan is vital to UN credibility – reversing US false multilateralism is key to prevent it from becoming an irrelevant institution

Deen, 10 (Thalif, “U.N. Faces Threat of Irrelevancy Amid Big Power Politics”, Inter Press Service (IPS), September 28, http://www.galdu.org/web/index.php?odas=4772&giella1=eng)

Judging by remarks on opening day, … U.S.-controlled false multilateralism, Bennis declared.

US engagement with the UN is key to effective multilateralism, preventing terrorism, Iran and North Korean proliferation and stabilizes Afghanistan, Iraq and multiple peacekeeping conflicts

Brimmer, 11 (Esther - Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Organization Affairs, Revitalizing the United Nations and Multilateral Cooperation, 2/1, p. http://www.state.gov/p/io/rm/2011/155854.htm)

So our discussion today is a perfect … leverage important contributions by other states.

Only multilateral cooperation prevents great power wars that make extinction inevitable

Dyer, 4 (Gwynne, former senior lecturer in war studies at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, 12/30/2004, The End of War, The Toronto Star, p. lexis)

The "firebreak" against nuclear … will repeat itself and everybody loses.

Economy Adv

European debt crisis prevents investments to the Middle East.

Shankar, 10/23/2011 (Sitaraman, Arab Spring, economic winter spook MENA investors, p. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/23/us-mideast-summit-preview-idUSTRE79K3ZU20111023)

Rattled first by political instability … performer with a fall of 40 percent.

Economic collapse inevitable – SCAF paralyzes any action and kills FDI.

Marroushi and Elmeshad, 3/10/2011 (Nadine and Mohamed, Is the military council leading Egypt toward an economic crisis? Almasry Alyoum, p. http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/501682)

Unless serious reforms are made … percent of total government expenditures.

-- Economic decline doesn’t cause war

Ferguson 6 (Niall, Professor of History – Harvard University, Foreign Affairs, 85(5), September / October, Lexis)

Nor can economic crises explain the …were not followed by wars.

-- No timeframe

Russett 83 (Bruce, Dean Acheson Professor of International Relations and Political Science – Yale University, “Prosperity and Peace: Presidential Address”, International Studies Quarterly, 27(4), p. 384)

The ‘optimism’ argument seems … only after the economy is recovering.

-- Economy is resilient

Behravesh 06 (Nariman, most accurate economist tracked by USA Today and chief global economist and executive vice president for Global Insight, Newsweek, “The Great Shock Absorber; Good macroeconomic policies and improved microeconomic flexibility have strengthened the global economy's 'immune system.'” 10-15-2006, www.newsweek.com/id/47483)

The U.S. and global economies were … impact on overall GDP growth.

Relations Adv

Islamic split undermines the chances for a majority.

Reuters, 10/20/2011 (Egypt Islamists split before vote, some call for unity, p. http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/10/19/idINIndia-59997720111019)

Islamic thinkers on Wednesday …political spectrum, now only has 10.

No radical Muslim Brotherhood – capabilities and intentions.

Brooke and Hamid, 2/1/2011 (Steven – Ph.D. student in the Department of Government at the University of Texas at Austin, and Shadi – director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Mid East Policy at the Brookings Institution, The Muslim Brotherhood’s Role in the Egyptian Revolution, p. http://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-muslim-brotherhood%E2%80%99s-role-in-the-egyptian-revolution)

Any attempt to forecast the behavior of the … commercial ties between Egypt and the West.

Can’t act decisively.

Hamid 11 (Shadi, Director of Research – Brookings Doha Center and Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, “Revolution in Cairo”, PBS Interview, 3-4, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/revolution-in-cairo/interviews/shadi-hamid.html#5)

So the Muslim Brotherhood's organizational …because they themselves probably don't know.

Military will stay in power – controls the legislature.

New York Times, 10/14/2011 (Egypt’s Military Expands Power, Raising Alarms, p. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/15/world/middleeast/egypts-military-expands-power-raising-alarms.html#h[])

Egypt’s military rulers are moving to assert … that could stretch into 2013 or longer.

-- Relations resilient – minor blips don’t threaten overall cooperation

Bahgat 7 (Gawdat, Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies – Indiana University of Pennsylvania, Arab Studies Quarterly, 29(2), “The Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Egypt”, 3-22, Lexis)

Given Egypt's economic, political, military, and … aid in the foreseeable future.

Solvency

-- Egypt says no

A) Bureaucracy will block

BT 2 (Business Today, “Country Profile: The United States,” Business Today – Egypt, April, http://www.danbernard.org/clips/eg/UScountryprofile.htm)

Even if Washington were to come … systemic changes in a short time.

B) Egypt opposes the FTAs stringent conditions

Kotschwar and Schott 10 (Barbara, Research Associate and Adjunct Professor of Latin American Studies and Economic – Georgetown University, and Peter, Senior Fellow – Peterson Institute, Reengaging Egypt: Options for US-Egypt Economic Relations, p. 51-4)

A US-Egypt FTA may …working conditions in both countries.

Links to backlash

Cook 11 (Steven A., “America Shouldn't Hijack Egypt's Revolution,” Foreign Policy, 3-9, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/09/america_shouldnt_hijack_egypts_revolution)

Policy analysts and democracy-promotion … President Barack Obama's administration wants.

2NC UN CP

A2: Iran Add On

-- Iran won’t be aggressive – too many checks in the system

Boroujerdi 7 (Mehrzad, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program, “Iranian Nuclear Miasma”, Syracuse Law Review, 57 Syracuse L. Rev. 619, Lexis)

The potential for groupthink miscalculations … or miscalculated action less realistic.

UN Cred NB – Impact 2NC

Terrorism causes global nuclear war

Speice, 6 (Patrick, JD, William & Mary Law Review, February, p. 1437-8)

The potential consequences of the unchecked … to the use of nuclear weapons.

Iranian proliferation escalates to nuclear war

Sokolski, 10/1/2003 (Henry - Executive Director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, Taking Proliferation Seriously, Heritage Foundation, p. http://www.policyreview.org/oct03/sokolski_print.html)

If nothing is done to shore up U.S. and … be spring-loaded to go nuclear.

Korean war results in extinction

Africa News, 99, (10-25p. lexis)

Lusaka - If there is one place today … normalising relations with North Korea.

Afghanistan collapse results in global nuclear war

Morgan, 7 (Steven, former member of the British Labour Party National Executive Committee, Better another taliban afghanistan than a taliban nuclear Pakistan, 6/3, p. online)

However events may prove him …China and Russia pitted against the US.

AT: Perm – Do the CP

The counterplan’s assistance is functionally different – comes from a completely different budget

DOS, 11 (Department of State, “Department of State and Foreign Operations”, July 17, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/files/fp_uploaded_documents/110718_9T%20-%20Department%20of%20State%20Jul%2017%20545pm.pdf)

The United States taxpayer is … as UNICEF, the UNDP, and IAEA.

It’s a specific allocation category – distinct from the aff’s funding source

Mungcal, 11 (Ivy, “House Panel Unveils 2012 State, Foreign Operations Appropriations Bill” July 27, http://www.devex.com/en/blogs/development-assistance-under-obama/house-panel-unveils-2012-state-foreign-operations-appropriations-bill)

Here are some of the specific … million for export assistance initiatives.

More evidence - bilateral and multilateral aid are distinct assistance strategies

CBO, 97 (Congressional Budget Office, “The Role of Foreign Aid in Development” , May, http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=8&type=0&sequence=2.)

Finally, is bilateral or multilateral … money is spent properly and for the intended objectives.

- Severs ‘its’ – which must be possessive – that’s English Grammar from the 1NC

“Its” in the counterplan refers to the UNDEF’s assistance – contextual evidence

UNSG, 11 (UN Secretary General, “Democratic Ideals Must Be Woven into Social, Political, Economic Fabric, of Society, Secretary General Tells Round Table on Gender Equality”, May 4 http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2011/sgsm13541.doc.htm)

That brings me to my fourth point:  … that democracies are accountable to women.

Links to the credibility net benefit -

US unilateral action to sidestep the UN undermines credibility on democracy for both actors

Ives, 4 (David, executive director of the Albert Schweitzer Institute, “Bullying Antagonism”, http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x319.xml)

While there are many possible … would be a wise investment in America’s future.

2NC Case

Military Kills Reforms 2NC

The military cannot overcome multiple alternate causalities to investment fears.

Financial Times, 10/9/2011 (The economics of the Arab Spring, p. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9565ebac-f0d0-11e0-aec8-00144feab49a.html#axzz1bisZ9un7)

Pledges of tens of billions of dollars of … few days after announcing it shakes confidence.”

-- No merit

Miller 00 (Morris, Economist, Adjunct Professor in the Faculty of Administration – University of Ottawa, Former Executive Director and Senior Economist – World Bank, “Poverty as a Cause of Wars?”, Interdisciplinary Science Reviews, Winter, p. 273)

The question may be reformulated. Do … using one form of violence to abort another).

MB Will Lose 2NC

More reasons –

Defections undermine the Brotherhood.

Tarek, 10/19/2011 (Sherif, Egypt’s New Islamist Bloc Challenges Brotherhood Dominance, Ahram, p. http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/24495/Egypt/Politics-/Egypts-new-Islamist-bloc-challenges-Brotherhood-do.aspx)

The defection of several Islamic groups …prevalent as that of other Islamist groups.

Internal conflicts and the military.

Zee News, 10/6/2011 (Egypt’s Brotherhood tackles rifts ahead of polls, p. http://zeenews.india.com/news/world/egypt-s-brotherhood-tackles-rifts-ahead-of-polls_735284.html)

Largely believed to be the … religious slogans not be used in elections.

No Radical MB – Pragmatic 2NC

Studies prove parliamentary participation leads to moderation.

Harfouch, 10/17/2011 (Ali – writer for New Civlisation and works with Islamic Organizations in Beirut, Lebanon, The Muslim Brotherhood and the Politics of Appeasement, Eurasia Review Newsletter, p. http://www.eurasiareview.com/17102011-the-muslim-brotherhood-and-the-politics-of-appeasement-oped/)

From within, the reformist methods … revolutionary principles – there is little to fear.

No Radical MB – Coalitions 2NC

Sharqieh, 2/23/2011 (Ibrahim – Deputy Director of the Brookings Doha Center, “The World is Flat” in Egypt, Politico, p. http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0223_egypt_sharqieh.aspx)

Many factors suggest, however, that … should have no problem confronting totalitarianism tomorrow.

-- Crises in relations are inevitable

Aly 6 (Abdel Monem Said, Director – Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, Visiting Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, Analysis Paper Number 6, “An Ambivalent Alliance: The Future of US-Egyptian Relations”, January,  http://www.amcham.org.eg/BSAC/ustrade/PDFFiles/FutureofEgyptUSrelationship06.pdf)

Despite U.S. and Egyptian gains … and the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq.

1NR T

-- Bilateral Affs aren’t topical –
‘Its’ is possessive

English Grammar 5 (Glossary of English Grammar Terms, http://www.usingenglish.com/glossary/possessive-pronoun.html)

Mine, yours, his, hers, its, … shows that it belongs to me.)

Grammatically, this refers solely to U.S. democracy assistance

Manderino 73 (Justice – Supreme Court of Pennsylvania, “Sigal, Appellant, v. Manufacturers Light and Heat Co”., No. 26, Jan. T., 1972, Supreme Court of Pennsylvania, 450 Pa. 228; 299 A.2d 646; 1973 Pa. LEXIS 600; 44 Oil & Gas Rep. 214, Lexis)

On its face, the written instrument … pipeline . . ." were intended to mean.

And its a term of exclusion

Frey 28 (Judge – Supreme Court of Missouri, Supreme Court of Missouri,

320 Mo. 1058; 10 S.W.2d 47; 1928 Mo. LEXIS 834, Lexis)

In support of this contention appellant … "the above heirs."its is geographical

___Democracy assistance includes neither carrots nor sticks

Carothers 99 (Thomas, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve, p. 6)

The most common and often most … sometimes view it as such).

___Carothers is the leading expert on Democracy Assistance

Burnell 10 (Peter, Professor in the Department of Politics and International Studies at the University of Warwick,

 “Promoting Democracy and Promoting Autocracy: Towards A Comparative Evaluation,” Journal of Politics and Law Vol. 3, No. 2; September 2010)

Most democracy promoters … example Carothers 1999 and 2004).

___Limits outweigh – they’re the vital access point for any theory impact – its key to fairness – huge research burdens mean we can’t prepare to compete – and its key to education – big topics cause hyper-generics, lack of clash, and shallow debate – and it destroys participation

Rowland 84 (Robert C., Debate Coach – Baylor University, “Topic Selection in Debate”, American Forensics in Perspective, Ed. Parson, p. 53-54)

The first major problem identified … small schools to cancel their programs.

___The conditions they identify are a part of foreign aid eligibility, not a part of the assistance itself – specifically true of MENA countries

Stahn 7 (Andreas, Research Associate with the Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 700 and Vera van Hüllen, CDDRL Visiting Scholar at Stanford University, Research Associate at the Center for European Integration Otto Suhr Institute of Political Science, “Different actors, different tools?:Approaching EU and US democracy promotion in the Mediterranean and the Newly Independent States,” Free University Berlin, Paper prepared for the European Union Studies Association (EUSA) Tenth Biennial International Conference, May 17-19, 2007, Montreal, Canada, http://aei.pitt.edu/7911/1/hullen-v-03e.pdf)

In contrast to the EU, the US does not … under the Threshold Program.

Democracy assistance shares a common meaning among different international agents.

Carothers 99 (Thomas, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve, p. 12)

My focus throughout is democracy aid … differences but their similarities.

___Democracy assistance is unconditional, distinct from a democratic requirement and democratic conditionality

Harris 98 (Peter, Head of the Department of Political Science at Hong Kong University, and Ben Reilly, Senior Programme Officer at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) in Stockholm, Democracy and Deep-Rooted Conflict: Options for Negotiators, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Stockholm, Sweden: 1998, http://www.cibera.de/fulltext/2/2664/publications/democracy_and_deep_rooted_conflict/ebook_chapter5_4.html)

5.4.2 Democracy assistance and … out along three main themes:

Even supposedly conditional aid is in practice unconditional

Hyde 8 (Susan, Department of Political Science at Yale University & Carew E. Boulding Department of Political Science University of California, San Diego, “Political Terror, Election Fraud, and Foreign Aid: When do donors withdraw aid to promote democracy?,” Presented at Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 2008)

Rarely is foreign aid given without … Netherlands and Canada suspended aid.

1NC Politics

A.  The payroll tax cuts and unemployment benefit extensions in Obama’s jobs plan will pass now—“all or nothing” rhetoric ignores political reality

Ohlemacher 10/24/11 (Stephen, Associated Press, "Yes, parts of the jobs bill will pass," http://www.taiwannews.com.tw/etn/news_content.php?id=1740983)

Congress will almost certainly approve …carries a price tag of $48.5 billion.

B.  The plan causes a massive congressional backlash

Richter, 11 (4/12/2011, Paul LA Times, “Debt worries stymieing U.S. financial aid to help Arab nations in transition; U.S. lawmakers not only have shut the door on new spending to stabilize countries rocked by the so-called Arab Spring. They have resisted proposals to shift money from other foreign aid programs,” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr/12/world/la-fg-mideast-aid-20110413)

The Obama administration's efforts to … linked since the early 1980s.

C.  Political capital key to passing payroll tax cut and unemployment benefit extension

Philadelphia Inquirer 9/8/11 ("Point: Don't expect miracles on job growth," http://www.philly.com/philly/opinion/20110908_Inquirer_Editorial__The_president_s_jobs_speech.html)

President Obama goes into … and continuing unemployment insurance.

D.  Passing Obama’s jobs plan tax cut proposals is vital in preventing US economic collapse

Zandi 9/9/11 (Mark, Economist @ Moody's Analytics, "An Analysis of the Obama Jobs Plan," http://www.economy.com/dismal/article_free.asp?cid=224641)

President Obama’s much-anticipated jobs … the Great Recession to closer to 5.5% currently. 

Impact is Extinction

Auslin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, “The Global Economy Unravels”, Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187)

What do these trends mean in … explosions that coalesce into a big bang.

1NC China Relations

U.S. – Sino relations are going well now – but challenges can tank this

Lavin 6/28 (Franklin – Former Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade, M.S. in Chinese Language , “Consequential China: U.S.–China Relations in a Time of Transition”, 2011, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/06/consequential-china-us-china-relations-in-a-time-of-transition)

I mentioned that I have had … terms of foreign policy management.

China opposes Yemen assistance – economic interests

Simpfendorfer 11 (Ben – Managing Director of Silk Road Associates, Former Chief China Economist for Royal Bank of Scotland, “China’s Libya challenge. Yemen next.”, 2/28, http://www.silkroadeconomy.com/2011/02/28/china%E2%80%99s-libya-challenge-yemen-next/)

Indeed, China has the larger .. China’s economic interests.

Relations stop global nuclear war

Conable and Lampton 93 (Barber B., President Emeritus – World Bank and David, President – National Committee, “China: The Coming Power”, Foreign Affairs, December / January, Lexis)

Regionally American interests are … building positive ties to the P.R.C.

1NC UN CP

Text: The United States federal government should propose a substantial increase in its democratic decentralization assistance for Yemen by fostering: A favorable environment for decentralization, primarily through support for decentralizing legal reforms, Democratic local governance, and Local government capacity to the United Nations Democracy Fund Advisory Board.  The United States Federal Government should provide all financial and technical assistance for the United Nations Democracy Fund to implement the proposal.

Tests ‘Its’ which is possessive

English Grammar, 5 (Glossary of English Grammar Terms, http://www.usingenglish.com/glossary/possessive-pronoun.html)

Mine, yours, his, hers, its, … it belongs to me.)

Counterplans that test the resolution are key to predictable ground

Solves -

US democracy assistance through the UNDEF solves – comparatively more credible

Piccone, 9 (Theodore J., senior fellow and deputy director for Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution and an adviser to the Club of Madrid, “Enhance Democracy Assistance in the Americas through Multilateral Action”, The Brookings Institute, April 13, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/reports/2009/0413_summit_americas/0413_summit_americas_piccone.pdf)

Internationalize democracy assistance. The United States … citizens on priority  projects.

Counterplan is vital to UN credibility – reversing US false multilateralism is key to prevent it from becoming an irrelevant institution

Deen, 10 (Thalif, “U.N. Faces Threat of Irrelevancy Amid Big Power Politics”, Inter Press Service (IPS), September 28, http://www.galdu.org/web/index.php?odas=4772&giella1=eng)

Judging by remarks on opening day, … U.S.-controlled false multilateralism, Bennis declared.

US engagement with the UN is key to effective multilateralism, preventing terrorism, Iran and North Korean proliferation and stabilizes Afghanistan, Iraq and multiple peacekeeping conflicts

Brimmer, 11 (Esther - Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Organization Affairs, Revitalizing the United Nations and Multilateral Cooperation, 2/1, p. http://www.state.gov/p/io/rm/2011/155854.htm)

So our discussion today is a perfect … leverage important contributions by other states.

Only multilateral cooperation prevents great power wars that make extinction inevitable

Dyer, 4 (Gwynne, former senior lecturer in war studies at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, 12/30/2004, The End of War, The Toronto Star, p. lexis)

The "firebreak" against nuclear weapons …n history will repeat itself and everybody loses.

1NC Pressure CP

The United States federal government should:

--demand that Saleh and his ruling regime relinquish power

--implement targeted sanctions on the Saleh regime until they relinquish power

--cooperate with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to establish a joint center of public awareness about AQAP activities in Yemen

--partner with the Gulf Cooperation Council to create a special fund to provide economic and humanitarian assistance to Yemen.

The CP solves the case

Johnsen 9/27/11 (Gregory, former Fulbright fellow in Yemen and currently a PhD candidate in Near Eastern studies at Princeton University, "Resetting U.S. Policy Toward Yemen," http://www.cfr.org/yemen/resetting-us-policy-toward-yemen/p26026)

It is impossible for Yemen to … to implement these measures is fast diminishing.

1NC Orientalism K

The 1AC relies on an orientalist conception of Yemeni society that cements authoritarianism and paves the way for global violence

Blumi 11 (Isa, Assistant Professor – Georgia State University’s History Department and Middle East Institute, Chaos in Yemen:  Societal Collapse and the New Authoritarianism, Routledge Advances in Middle East and Islamic Studies, p. 155-157)

Yemen's geopolitical trajectory  It may be useful to end by … and Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Disorder and insecurity are inevitable – the drive to eliminate difference causes global destruction

Der Derian 98 (James, Professor of Political Science – University of Massachusetts, On Security, Ed. Lipschutz, p. 24-25)

No other concept in international relations … calcifying into a fearful sameness.

Vote Neg to reject their representations of Yemen. This critical praxis is a prerequisite to effective policy solutions

Blumi 11 (Isa, Assistant Professor – Georgia State University’s History Department and Middle East Institute, Chaos in Yemen:  Societal Collapse and the New Authoritarianism, Routledge Advances in Middle East and Islamic Studies, p.  39-40)

By strategically calling into question … during this most complex period following 9/11.

1NC Case

Civil War

Aid causes backlash – turns case

Hill 8 (Ginny, Freelance Journalist, “Yemen: Fear of Failure,” Middle East Programme, Chatham House, November, http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Middle%20East/bp1108yemen.pdf)

Options for Western governments … to Saudi involvement in affairs in Sanaa.

Aid fails

Hill 8 (Ginny, Freelance Journalist, “Yemen: Fear of Failure,” Middle East Programme, Chatham House, November, http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Middle%20East/bp1108yemen.pdf)

Reform and aid  Yemen ranks among the world’s most … disburse $4.7 billion by the end of the decade.29

-- Economic decline doesn’t cause war

Ferguson 6 (Niall, Professor of History – Harvard University, Foreign Affairs, 85(5), September / October, Lexis)

Nor can economic crises explain the … severe economic crises were not followed by wars.

-- No timeframe

Russett 83 (Bruce, Dean Acheson Professor of International Relations and Political Science – Yale University, “Prosperity and Peace: Presidential Address”, International Studies Quarterly, 27(4), p. 384)

The ‘optimism’ argument seems …after the economy is recovering.

-- Economy is resilient

Behravesh 06 (Nariman, most accurate economist tracked by USA Today and chief global economist and executive vice president for Global Insight, Newsweek, “The Great Shock Absorber; Good macroeconomic policies and improved microeconomic flexibility have strengthened the global economy's 'immune system.'” 10-15-2006, www.newsweek.com/id/47483)

The U.S. and global economies … smaller impact on overall GDP growth.

No nuclear terrorism –

--Acquisition impossible

Krepon 9 (Michael, Co-Founder – Henry L. Stimson Center and Diplomat Scholar – University of Virginia, “The Mushroom Cloud That Wasn’t”, Foreign Affairs, May / June, Lexis)

At the height of the Cold War, … preventing worst-case scenarios from occurring -- than ever before.

--No motive

Maerli 00 (Morten Bremer, Science Program Fellow in the Center for International Security and Cooperation – Stanford University, “Relearning the ABCs: Terrorists and “Weapons of Mass Destruction”, The Nonproliferation Review, Summer)

Furthermore, a group’s interest in …outcomes would be less appealing.

---Bioweapons won’t cause extinction

O’Neill 4 O’Neill 8/19/2004  [Brendan, “Weapons of Minimum Destruction” http://www.spiked-online.com/Articles/0000000CA694.htm]

David C Rapoport, professor of political …The Tigers have not used WMD since.

-- Tech hurdles prevent bioterror

Mueller 6 (John, Chair of National Security Studies – Mershon Center and Professor of Political Science – Ohio State University, Overblown, p. 24)

Not only has the science about … hurdles that greatly inhibit their effective use.

AQAP Adavantage

Status quo solves – cooperation is high, especially on Al Qaeda targets

LA Times 11 (“Yemen aids in terror fight,” 9-15, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/sep/15/world/la-fg-yemen-intel-20110915)

The embattled regime in Yemen has …the point that the group could fragment."

Counter-terror coop doesn’t spillover – it’s issue-specific

Mendelsohn 10 (Barak, assistant professor of political science at Haverford College and a senior fellow of Foreign Policy Research Institute, “The Question of International Cooperation in the War on Terrorism,” June, http://www.fpri.org/enotes/201006.mendelsohn.cooperationwarterror.html)

International cooperation is hard … these goals are viewed as acceptable.

Democracy crushes intel-gathering – turns terrorism

DB 11 (The Daily Beast, Newsweek, “Intelligence Test,” 6-12, http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/06/12/how-the-arab-spring-has-weakened-u-s-intelligence.html)

With dictatorships in Tunisia, Egypt, … was a linchpin,” says Mr. Mum.

No impact to AQAP – getting crushed now

Dozier 11 (Kimberley, Forbes Magazine, “US counterterror chief: Al-Qaida now on the ropes,” 9-1, http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2011/09/01/general-us-us-counterterrorism-adviser_8654268.html)

On a steady slide. On the ropes. Taking shots … anonymously to discuss matters of intelligence.

Alt cause – AQIM

Leigh 9-12 (Karen Leigh “North Africa's Sahel: The Next Terrorism Hot Spot?” http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2092687,00.html)

With a gigantic cache of advanced antiaircraft rockets …somewhere in the desert, Gaddafi himself.

-- No retaliation

Davis and Jenkins 2 (Paul K., Professor – RAND Corporation and Research Leader – Naval Studies Board, and Brian M., Special Advisor – RAND Corporation and International Chamber of Commerce, RAND Research Paper,

http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1619/MR1619.pdf)

Deterring acquisition and use of … some, we regard it as very dangerous.

-- No mass death from chemical weapons

Easterbrook 3 (Gregg, Senior Fellow – New Republic, “We’re All Gonna Die!”, Wired Magazine, July, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.07/doomsday.html?pg=1&topic=&topic_set=)

2. Chemical weapons! Spooky-sounding, … would be confined to a few city blocks.

-- Impact is small

Eland 4 (Ivan, Senior Fellow – Independent Institute, “Weapons of Mass Destruction Are Overrated as a Threat to America”, Independent Institute Report, 1-28, http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=1256)

Chemical weapons have a …detection of production may be possible.

-- Middle East conflict won’t escalate – leaders won’t get involved

Maloney 7 (Suzanne, Senior Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Steve Cook, Fellow – Council on Foreign Relations, and Ray Takeyh, Fellow – Council for Foreign Relations, “Why the Iraq War Won’t Engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune, 6-28, http://www.brookings.edu/views/op-ed/maloney20070629.htm)

Yet, the Saudis, Iranians, Jordanians, … was regarded as someone else's fight.

-- Mid East conflict Won’t go nuclear

Dyer 2 (Gwynne, Ph.D. in War Studies – University of London and Board of Governors – Canada’s Royal Military College, The Coming War, Queen’s Quarterly, December, Lexis)

All of this indicates an extremely … the good news is: we are out of the business.

-- No impact – prolif will be limited and slow

Yusuf 9 (Moeed, Fellow and Ph.D. Candidate in the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range

Future – Boston University, “Predicting Proliferation: The History of the Future of Nuclear Weapons”, Brookings Policy Paper 11, January, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2009/01_nuclear_proliferation_ yusuf/01_nuclear_proliferation_yusuf.pdf)

It is a paradox that few aspects of international … case during the Cold War. 

***2NC

Pressure CP

Sustained pressure on Saleh to resign and targeted sanctions on the regime is the MOST EFFECTIVE solution to the current problems in Yemen—ensures a stable political transition, secures US interests, and avoids emboldening US adversaries

Carapico 3/24/11 (Sheila, professor of political science at the University of Richmond and the American University in Cairo, "Worst and best case scenarios for Yemen," http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/24/worst_and_best_case_scenarios_for_yemen)

But things don't need to turn out … come for him to relinquish power.

 The CP’s 3 pronged approach is key to solving terrorism in Yemen

Johnsen 9/27/11 (Gregory, former Fulbright fellow in Yemen and currently a PhD candidate in Near Eastern studies at Princeton University, "Resetting U.S. Policy Toward Yemen," http://www.cfr.org/yemen/resetting-us-policy-toward-yemen/p26026)

In this murky mixture of competing … energize Yemen’s failing economy.

Sustained diplomatic pressure and targeted sanctions can compel Saleh to relinquish power and agree to political talks—this prevents the outbreak of civil war

Tayler 9/26/11 (Letta, Yemen and Counterterrorism Researcher at Human Rights Watch, "Yemen’s Hijacked Revolution," http://www.hrw.org/news/2011/09/26/yemen-s-hijacked-revolution)

There is no quick fix to Yemen's crisis. … could be just a taste of the killing and suffering to come.

The CP signals a genuine commitment to a peaceable transition—this ensures support from Yemeni opposition groups

Stuster 5/23/11 (Dana, Joseph S. Nye National Security Research Intern at Center for a New American Security, "Should the U.S. Intervene in Yemen?," http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/05/should-the-us-intervene-in-yemen/239235/?single_page=true)

Sunday's events came three days … remember the United States' role.

Case

Civil War Advantage

Backlash Ext

Democracy promotion is counter-productive – fosters insurgency and turns the case

Tucker, 9 (Louise, “Can externally driven democracy promotion strategies bring liberal democracy?” , August 5, http://www.e-ir.info/?p=1991)

Coyne points out that reconstruction efforts …undermining progress to liberal democracy.

Civil War – Ext. Instability Inev

Instability inevitable – multiple reasons

YAVA 10 (Yemen Armed Violence Assessment by the Small Arms Survey, indepdendent research project of the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, "Fault Lines: Tracking Armed Violence in Yemen", May, Number 1, http://www.yemenviolence.org/pdfs/Yemen-Armed-Violence-IB1-Tracking-armed-violence-in-Yemen.pdf)

Armed violence in Yemen is … that these factors will worsen before they improve.

Aid doesn’t solve alt causes

Barron 8 (Owen, Editor in Chief of the Harvard International Review, 6/22, "Economic Conditions", http://www.freepatentsonline.com/article/Harvard-International-Review/184710760.html)

Recent unrest in Yemen indicates … security without addressing these realities.

Economy Ext

-- No timeframe

Russett 83 (Bruce, Dean Acheson Professor of International Relations and Political Science – Yale University, “Prosperity and Peace: Presidential Address”, International Studies Quarterly, 27(4), p. 384)

The ‘optimism’ argument seems …after the economy is recovering.

-- Economy is resilient

Behravesh 06 (Nariman, most accurate economist tracked by USA Today and chief global economist and executive vice president for Global Insight, Newsweek, “The Great Shock Absorber; Good macroeconomic policies and improved microeconomic flexibility have strengthened the global economy's 'immune system.'” 10-15-2006, www.newsweek.com/id/47483)

The U.S. and global economies … impact on overall GDP growth.

AQAP – Ext. No Nuclear Terror

--No motive

Maerli 00 (Morten Bremer, Science Program Fellow in the Center for International Security and Cooperation – Stanford University, “Relearning the ABCs: Terrorists and “Weapons of Mass Destruction”, The Nonproliferation Review, Summer)

Furthermore, a group’s interest in … outcomes would be less appealing.

Bioweapons Ext

b. dispersion of them is impossible 

Newhouse, CDI Senior Fellow, 2 – senior fellow at the Center for Defense Information. Former senior policy advisor on European Affairs to secretary of  state. Former director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency. (John, World Policy Journal 7/31 V.XIX; N.2 p. 21)

Temperature, sunlight, wind, and … but 1-2 percent of the agent. 31

-- No pandemic or extinction – history proves

Easterbrook 3 (Gregg, Senior Fellow – New Republic, “We’re All Gonna Die!”, Wired Magazine, July, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.07/doomsday.html?pg=1&topic=&topic_set=)

3. Germ warfare!Like chemical agents, … unlikely to happen in the future.

AQAP Advantage

AQAP – Ext. Status Quo Solves

Counterterror coop high – especially on drone targets

Jamjoom 10 (Mohammed, “Counterterrorism chief says Yemen is open to help fighting al Qaeda,” CNN, 10-4, http://articles.cnn.com/2010-10-04/world/yemen.us.involvement_1_yemen-s-foreign-minister-qaeda-airstrikes?_s=PM:WORLD)

The United States has been involved in … conduct strikes, the officials said.

Yemeni cooperation is unsustainable and fails

Katz 11 (Mark N., Senior Fellow, “Yemen and the “War on Terror”,” Middle East Policy Council, 1-11, http://www.mepc.org/articles-commentary/commentary/yemen-and-war-terror)

Yemen has witnessed many conflicts since … who were sympathetic toward al-Qaeda.

Middle East

-- Middle East conflict won’t escalate – leaders won’t get involved

Maloney 7 (Suzanne, Senior Fellow – Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Steve Cook, Fellow – Council on Foreign Relations, and Ray Takeyh, Fellow – Council for Foreign Relations, “Why the Iraq War Won’t Engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune, 6-28, http://www.brookings.edu/views/op-ed/maloney20070629.htm)

Yet, the Saudis, Iranians, Jordanians, … war in Lebanon was regarded as someone else's fight.

Prolif Slow

-- No impact – prolif will be limited and slow

Yusuf 9 (Moeed, Fellow and Ph.D. Candidate in the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range

Future – Boston University, “Predicting Proliferation: The History of the Future of Nuclear Weapons”, Brookings Policy Paper 11, January, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2009/01_nuclear_proliferation_ yusuf/01_nuclear_proliferation_yusuf.pdf)

It is a paradox that few aspects of international …was the case during the Cold War.

***1NR

International Fiat Good

-- Education – it teaches foreign policy. International politics are crucial in a globalized world

Dauenhauer 96 (Bernard P., Professor of Philosophy – University of Georgia, Citizenship in a Fragile World, p. 195)

In the past, the citizen's sphere of … narrowed, if not completely closed.

1NR China DA

Impact – 2NC

India – Pakistan conflict causes extinction

Fai 1 (Ghulam Nabi, Executive Director of the Kashmiri American Council, July 8, The Washington Times, “The Most Dangerous Place,” p. B4)

The most dangerous place on the … impending Fissile Material/Cut-off Convention.

And – it says Taiwan war – that goes nuclear

Johnson 1 (Chalmers, The Nation, 4-14, Lexis)

China is another matter. No sane … have virtually no deterrent effect.

And – it says Korean War - causes extinction

Africa News 99 (10-25, Lexis)

Lusaka - If there is one place today …normalising relations with North Korea.

China backlashes against the plan – turns solvency

Kurlantzick 11 (Joshua – New Republic, “Democracy in retreat; The romantic notion that freedom will always prevail has been proven wrong: The world is becoming more authoritarian every year”, 6/6, lexis)

Even as domestic politics in many …forestall new colour revolutions.

----Relations are critical to cooperation on terrorism

Jia 2 (Qingguo, Visiting Fellow at the Center on Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institute, "Impact of 9.11 on China-U.S. Relations: A Preliminary Assessment", July, http://www.brookings.edu/fp/cnaps/papers/2002_qingguo.pdf)

However, it soon turned out t… received from China since September 11."21

U – U.S./Sino High – 2NC

Relations are calm but continued cooperation is key

Bremmer 8/17 (Ian – President of Eurasia Group,  “America can’t afford complacency on China”, 2011, http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2011/08/17/america-can%E2%80%99t-afford-complacency-on-china/)

US-China relations have also been relatively … commercial opportunities that America needs.

Assistance is extremely limited – proves China doesn’t worry now

Quinn and Stewart 8/16 (Andrew and Phil – Reuters, “U.S. risks losing "Arab Spring" opportunity: Clinton”, 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/16/us-usa-budget-clinton-idUSTRE77F64T20110816)

(Reuters) - The United States may lose … and share burdens with other countries.

AT: Resiliency

A2: Resiliency

They break all cooperation – MENA policy will dictate Chinese relations

Paal 11 (Douglas, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He previously served as vice chairman of JPMorgan Chase International (2006–2008), and as unofficial U.S. representative to Taiwan as director of the American Institute in Taiwan (2002–2006). He was on the National Security Council staffs of Presidents Reagan and George H. W. Bush between 1986 and 1993 as director of Asian Affairs, and then as senior director and special assistant to the President. (China Reacts to Middle East Unrest, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2/28, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/02/28/china-reacts-to-middle-east-unrest/6yy)

Beijing is very far from Tunis, Cairo, … little prospect for an upside.

Especially in this case – this mechanism sparks discontent

Friedberg 5 (Aaron – Professor of Politics and International Relations at Princeton University, “The Future of

U.S.-China Relations”, Fall, International Security, Vol 30, No. 2, http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/016228805775124589)

Even if one does not accept the view that the … contemporary U.S.-China relations.

Link Debate

Yemen assistance angers China – security and energy relationships

Zambelis 6 (Chris - Researcher with Helios Global, Inc., a risk management group based in the Washington, DC area, specializes in Middle East politics, “Burgeoning China-Yemen Ties Showcase Beijing's Middle East Strategy”, China Brief, Volume 6, Issue 11, 5/24, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=3952)

On the surface, Chinese President Hu Jintao's …strategic partner in furthering its regional agenda.

Link outweighs – lack of resources threatens CCP rule in China

Pham 11 (Dr. Peter – Director of Michael S. Ansari Africa Center, “China’s Interests in the Middle East and North Africa in the Light of Recent Developments in those Regions”, 4/13, http://www.uscc.gov/hearings/2011hearings/written_testimonies/11_04_13_wrt/11_04_13_pham_testimony.pdf)

What are China’s Interests in the Middle East and … the continued rule of the Communist Party.”4

UN proves the link

Reuters 10/16 (Reuters, “Eight Yemenis killed, Saleh sees Russian, Chinese support”, 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/16/yemen-protest-idUSL5E7LG0DF20111016)

SANAA, Oct 16 (Reuters) - Eight Yemenis, …, diplomats in New York have said.

Perceived as controlling China

Bhadrakumar 10 (M K , “Obama's Yemeni odyssey targets China “, 1/9, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LA09Ak02.html)

It's all about China Most important, … extravagant indulgence in fantasy

AT: Case Solves DA

AT: Sau di Relations Add-On

Saudi Arabia will backlash against the Affirmative’s promotion of democratic reform in Yemen—they want a stable political transition, NOT a civil democratic state 

Democracy Digest 6/6/11 ("Saudi Arabia: countervailing power or ‘midwives of change’ in Yemen?," http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/06/saudi-arabia-countervailing-power-or-midwives-of-change-in-yemen/)

With Yemen finely poised between transition .. than elsewhere in the region.

Relations are resilient --- Arab spring specific.

Financial Times, 6/16/2011 (Arab spring tests US-Saudi relationship, p. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4082dc70-984d-11e0-ae45-00144feab49a.html#axzz1YyZB8GtY)

As revolution fever spread through T…‘Tina’ phenomenon – There Is No Alternative.”

Military control is at a breaking point – any perceived loss of power causes lashout

Allen 11 (Michael, Editor of Democracy Digest, “Egypt’s democrats divided over military’s role and continuing protests,” Democracy Digest, 7-25, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/07/egypts-democrats-divided-over-militarys-role-and-continuing-protests/)

Egypt’s government today pledged to purge senior officials 

AND 

other institution would always do a better job. 

Democracy aid causes military freak out

Richter and Fleishman 11 (Paul, reporter in Washington, and Jeffrey, reporter in Cairo,  “U.S. pro-democracy effort rubs many in Egypt the wrong way,” LA Times, 8-10, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/aug/10/world/la-fg-us-egypt-20110811)

Six months after pro-democracy protesters ousted 

AND 

the total $165 million has been distributed. 

The military will bash Israel – escalates to war

Zahran 11 (Mudar, Palestinian writer, “Egypt's Military Council Toying with Israel,” Hudson Institute, 9-9, http://www.hudson-ny.org/2410/egypt-military-council-israel)

While the Egyptian revolution was still boiling, 

AND 

million-man-protests for this cause. 

Extinction

Morgan 9 (Dennis Ray, Professor of Current Affairs – Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, South Korea, “World on Fire: Two Scenarios of the Destruction of Human Civilization and Possible Extinction of the Human Race”, Futures, 41(1), p. 685)

In a remarkable website on nuclear war, 

AND 

upon the environment and fragile ecosphere as well. 

Obama’s strategy is shifting from the Middle East to East Asia. The plan sidetracks Obama’s ability to push for engage APEC.

Reuters, 11/1/2011 (Obama to shift spotlight to Asia at Hawaii, p. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/01/obama-asia-idUSN1E79T04A20111101)

President Barack Obama, whose foreign policy agenda 

AND 

said Clinton has worked particularly hard on it.

Democracy assistance to Egypt is a lightening rod for controversy – even small increases cause huge backlash

Sharp 8-23-2011 (Jeremy, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs for the Congressional Research Service, "Egypt in Transition," http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33003.pdf)

Although the Egyptian government has expressed its gratitude 

AND 

aggressive enough in supporting political reform in Egypt.  

Political distractions undermines Obama’s APEC trip.

MacInnis, 11/7/2011 (Laura, Budget battles to shadow Obama on Asia-Pacific tour, Chicago Tribune, p. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-apec-obama-poliitcstre7a60xm-20111106,0,3144491.story)

President Barack Obama's efforts next week to persuade 

AND 

if the negotiations start to go off track.

APEC summit is critical to integrate China and make it an international stakeholder.

Quinn and Mohammed, 11/7/2011 (Andrew and Arshad, U.S. seeks to manage global economic shift to China, Reuters, p. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/07/us-washington-summit-china-idUSTRE7A655G20111107)

The United States must develop new transpacific trade 

AND 

higher set of international rules," he said.

That escalates to US/China war.

Liu, 8/20/2005 (Henry – chairman of a New York-based private investment group, The Coming Trade War, Asia Times, p. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/global_economy/GH20Dj01.html)

US geopolitical hostility toward China will manifest itself 

AND 

threat, increasing the prospect for armed conflict. 

Extinction.

The Straits Times, 6/25/2000 (Regional Fallout: No one gains in war over Taiwan, p. lexis)

THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross

AND 

, for China puts sovereignty above everything else.