T Material 1NC

“Democracy Assistance” must include transfer of resources – grants or loans

Burnell, professor of politics and international studies at Warwick, 2000

(Peter, Democracy Assistance: International co-operation for democratization, pg. 5

When defining democracy assistance there are three sets

AND

qualify as assistance can involve somewhat arbitrary judgments.

[B] Violation: the plan gives no funding or material transfer

Precision

Lappin, University of Leuven (Belgium) Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies

PhD candidate, 2010

[Richard, participant in democracy assistance missions

AND

/2010/CEJISS-lappin.pdf]

By the end of the 1990s, the

AND

society groups, media groups and political parties.

2. Limits: Hundreds of small interventions

AND

, cultural exchanges, athletic events, etc.

[D] T is a voting issue

AND

aff would read a new indisputable case every debate

Coercion

Foreign aid is government coercion and destroys liberty

DiLorenzo, professor of economics at Loyola College, 1/6/2005

(Thomas, “A Foreign Aid Disaster

AND

)

Politicians are bound to politicize this disaster,

AND

are always to the recipient country’s central government.

Moral side constraint

Petro, Wake Forest Professor in Toledo Law Review, 1974

(Sylvester, Spring, page 480)

However, one may still insist, echoing

AND

be emphatically identified and resisted with undying spirit.

Death Cult

The aff’s invocation of death impacts is necrophilia

AND

—we won’t cross-apply to prove links

Erich Fromm 64, PhD in sociology from

AND

. January 1964), pp. 22-25

People are aware of the possibility of nuclear

AND

life will not cease the struggle against necrophilia.

Saudi Relations DA

Saudi relations are high high – a new democracy push reverses cooperation

Carothers 2-3, vice president for

AND

.org/publications/?fa=47088)

 Just after the first anniversary of the

AND

Spring and the U.S. response.

Although accounts of the Arab Spring often refer

AND

, and some have a special religious legitimacy.

 We should keep in mind that the

AND

on reliable autocrats is more perilous than ever.

President Obama says that he recognizes this reality

AND

are helpful on matters of security and economics.

When the government of Bahrain cracked down harshly

AND

has received only praise and aid from Washington.

US push for reform in Bahrain will break US-Saudi relations

ICG, 11

(International Crisis Group, 7/28, Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iran-gulf/bahrain.aspx)

Following on the heels of the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions, the Bahrain events presented a serious dilemma for Washington. The U.S. has huge assets in Bahrain – its Fifth Fleet is based there144 – and has a close, long-standing relationship with the Al Khalifas it is loath to jeopardise. Perhaps most importantly, the administration does not wish to further harm its pivotal relations with Saudi Arabia, already significantly undercut by Riyadh’s anger at Washington’s abandonment of its long-term Egyptian ally, Mubarak. For reasons noted above, Saudi Arabia views Bahrain as an existential issue, and any significant divergence of views between Washington and Riyadh over it could have near-fatal consequences to their relationship. Moreover, although the administration concluded that – contrary to Saudi assertions – there was no evidence of direct Iranian meddling in Bahrain, it nonetheless agreed with Riyadh that Tehran would benefit from instability there. Also factoring in Washington’s calculations was the realisation that the Bahraini military, unlike its Tunisian and Egyptian counterparts, would not desert its political leadership but rather rally around it. At the same time, the U.S. has sought to make clear that it supports the aspirations of protesters region-wide and fears being accused of inconsistent behaviour – or, worse, outright hypocrisy – if it comes out firmly against regime repression of opposition movements in Libya and Syria, but not in Bahrain.

Breakdown of relations spurs Saudi prolif

Lippman, 8/5

(Sr. Adjunct Scholar-Council on

AND

-arabia’s-nuclear-policy-lippman/)

So let us suppose that Saudi Arabia’s currently

AND

might emerge less secure, rather than more.

That causes global nuclear war

Edelman, 11

(Jan/Feb, Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments & Former U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran)

There is, however, at least ..., with unpredictable consequences.

Oman DA

Constitutional monarchy emboldens protests in Oman

Energy Daily, 3/1/’11

()

If that happens, the mass unrest ...the kingdom's regional rival, may seek to exploit.

Political upheaval causes oil shocks and collapses the global economy

Escobar, correspondent – Asia Times, has written for the Atlantic and Real News, 3/1/’11

(Pepe, “How Uprisings in a Tiny Persian Gulf Country Could Send Oil to $150 in a Matter of Days,” Alter Net)

Qabus, in power since ...l in a matter of days. And this without even factoring possible March protests in Saudi Arabia.

Kuwait DA

Constitutional monarchy spills over to Kuwait

Ottaway, director – Middle East Program @ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 4/4/’11

(Marina, “Bahrain: Between the United States and Saudi Arabia,” )

The call for a republic was an open challenge .... a blind eye to the inevitability of change, the policy is at least clear.

Kuwait is calm now – further pressure collapses US-Kuwait relations and emboldens Iran

Jay 12-13, Writer for Max Security Solutions, security and intelligence firm (Jay R., "Kuwait Elections: an Iranian Opportunity?," 2011 )

Despite Kuwait’s highly volatile political system, this most....Only time will tell if Iran sees Kuwait as the next domino to fall in favor of expanding its regional influence.

Kuwait alliance key to contain Iraqi instability

Terrill, PhD, Mid East expert – Strategic Studies Institute, ‘7

(W. Andrew, “KUWAITI NATIONAL SECURITY AND THE U.S.-KUWAITI STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP AFTER SADDAM,” September)

4. Both the United States ... ongoing Iraqi political problems and humanitarian challenges.

Failure to manage Iraq causes nuclear war

Garner, professor of international affairs – American University of Paris, ‘7

(Hall, Averting Global War, p. 210-217)

Or, by contrast, should the United States ....states and antistate actors to attack large naval vessels.

PNTR DA

PNTR to Russia will pass now

Sanati, 3/19

(Columnist-Fortune Magazine, The biggest

AND

/03/19/russia-trade/)

FORTUNE -- On Capitol Hill last week,

AND

the WTO rules. Only time will tell.

Plan drains capital

Turse, associate editor and research director –

AND

– The Nation, 3/15/’11

(Nick, “How the Tiny Kingdom

AND

President of the United States,” The Nation)

Word then emerged that, under the provisions

AND

any of our assistance was used by them.”

In the weeks since, Washington has markedly

AND

some diplomats are now calling “regime alteration.”

The six member states of the Gulf Cooperation

AND

that Bahrain was just too important to fail.”

It’s an oddly familiar phrase, so close

AND

a nation much too important ever to fail.

Capital key

Needham, 3/18

(Columnist-The Hill, “Tensions over Syria could slow efforts to normalize Russia, U.S. trade relations,” http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/1005-trade/216549-tensions-over-syria-could-slow-legislation-to-normalize-russia-us-trade-relations)

"In the context of considering .... its outreach to Congress to get the trade bill through by summer.

NTR key to sustainability of relations---accesses every impact

BPC, 12

(Task Force Report of the Bipartisan Policy

AND

/Russia%20Staff%20Paper.pdf)

Relations with Russia remain central to U.

AND

the world, with a solid economic base.

Extinction

Allison, 11

(10/30, Director- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard’s Kennedy School, “10 reasons why Russia still matters,” http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=161EF282-72F9-4D48-8B9C-C5B3396CA0E6)

That central point is that Russia matters a ..... defense missiles to Tehran to joining China in preventing U.N. Security Council resolutions.

Econ Assistance CP

The Executive Branch of the United States federal government should significantly expand economic assistance to Shiite communities in Bahrain focused on anti-poverty programs, expanded employment opportunities on the naval base, and housing subsidies. 

CP appeases Shiites and ensures sustainability of the fleet

Cooley & Nexon, 11

(Columbia & Georgetown Profs, “Bahrain’s

AND

-base-politics?page=show)

It is time for U.S.

AND

often pay significant dividends for the host countries.

Of course, Washington's ability to hedge its

AND

forced to scramble after it is under way.

Solves the case-bigger internal link to Shiite unrest

Terrill, 8-2

Terrill, 8/2/11 – Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute (Andrew, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain)

Perhaps the most reasonable.....reparable if strong attention is paid to the needs of Bahraini Shi'ites.

Solvency 1NC

Plan doesn’t solve---

Prime Minister blocks

Hiltermann, deputy program director for MENA – Intl Crisis Group, and McEvers, NPR, 12/27/’11

(Joost and Kelly, http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2011/dec/27/barricaded-bahrain/)

But even if those responsible.....the politics of the street as long as the regime shows no inclination to enter serious talks.

The US fails

Hokayem, Middle East analyst – International Institute for Strategic Studies, 10/19/’11

(Emile, “U.S. Has Few Options to Curb Crackdown in Bahrain,” )

With the international attention .... of Bahrain's crown prince, folded after Saudi Arabia intervened in March.

Saudi Arabia blocks

Shaikh, 11

Salman Shaikh, Director of the Brookings Institution's

AND

crisis_and_its_regional_dangers

The Bahrain crisis is also showing the

AND

affairs. We really are in unchartered territory.

Fleet 1NC

No risk of escalating protests

McEvers, Mid East correspondent – NPR, 1/5/’12

(Kelly, “Bahrain: The Revolution

AND

)

Arab revolts against secular leaders have been much

AND

to normal. Just like nothing ever happened.

Crackdowns work

WSJ 11

("Bahrain Opposition Faces Uphill Effort," 3

AND

.com/article/SB10001424052748703576204576227050727063170.html)

MANAMA—Bahrain's Shiite-led opposition movement

AND

some key preconditions for dialogue with the government.

The moderate party, which had demanded the

AND

the capital has started to return to normal.

Bahrain's shopping malls were noticeably busier this weekend

AND

its growing confidence that protests can be stifled.

Military will maintain stability

Levinson, 2011

Micah Levinson, Junior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council,  3-7-2011, “,” American Spectator, http://spectator.org/archives/2011/03/07/what-makes-jordan-and-bahrain#

The good news is that the Bahraini ..... economy and military, a development the armed forces are not eager to contemplate.

Opposition is too weak

Diwan 11

(Assistant Professor, School of International Service, American University, "Un-Unified Oppositions in Bahrain and Yemen," 3-23, www.cfr.org/middle-east/un-unified-oppositions-bahrain-yemen/p24464)

One key characteristic of the .....Sunni-Shia divisions, denying the social unity needed to confront the monarchy.

No risk of base kick-out

Bryan, 11

(Politico Columnist, 4/11,

AND

/stories/0411/52885.html)

These concerns, however, should not keep

AND

opposition. But no evidence has been offered.

Bahrain’s Shiites have made clear they have no

AND

tear gas and rubber bullets against the protesters.

Shift to other bases solve the impact

Koplovsky, 6

(PhD-Naval War College, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA463412&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)

WEIGHING BASING OPTIONS WHILE WEIGHING ANCHOR

The United States has other f.....offer a U.S. commander access inside the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.

Data disproves hegemony impacts

Fettweis, 11

Christopher J. Fettweis, Department of Political

AND

Strategy, 30:316–332, EBSCO

It is perhaps worth noting that there is

AND

expected an increase in global instability and violence.

The verdict from the past two decades is

AND

reach the conclusion that the two are unrelated.

Military spending figures by themselves are insufficient to

AND

the 1990s, its relative advantage never wavered.

However, even if it is true that

AND

trillions for an increasingly debt-ridden nation.

It is also perhaps worth noting that if

AND

think otherwise base their view on faith alone.

No strikes – negotiations now

Slavin, 3/23/12

[Barbara,  Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C, “ Iran, Israel and U.S. moves from war rhetoric back to diplomacy,” ]

 After months of sabre-rattling rhetoric by Iran, .....However, it remains unclear whether the Obama administration and its partners will put forward proposals that could provide Iran a face-saving way to reduce tensions.

Iran’s losing in Bahrain – they won’t gain influence or use it for a proxy conflict

Khalaji, senior fellow focused on Iran and Shiite politics – Washington Institute, 6/27/’11

(Mehdi, )

Despite such fiery rhetoric, ......on Tehran to assist them in the event of confrontation with their governments.

No hormuz closure

Brower 1/9/12

 I’m a journalist who covers energy and

AND

, including advisory, consultancy and public speaking.

 Meanwhile, Iran’s economy depends on the

AND

But don’t be distracted by the Hormuz sideshow.

Shia 1NC

The plan doesn’t spill over

CSIS, Center for Strategic and International Studies Forum on Islam, ‘7

(

)

“Each Shi’a community is driven by its

AND

space for themselves in a Sunni dominated world.

No unrest in Saudi Arabia- wealth, culture, and central power

Worth 11 (Robert F., staff writer

AND

)

“The Bahrain uprising may give more courage

AND

then escalate to the rest of the country.”

Most analysts say that is unlikely. Although

AND

by oil wealth and culturally resistant to change.

Moreover, analysts tend to agree that Saudi

AND

sentiment, according to Saudi news media reports.

“Saudi Arabia did not build a causeway

AND

like this, for keeping Bahrain under control.”

The sectarian divisions in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia

AND

, though many seem skeptical about the results.

“I do not expect much,” said

AND

that the Saudi king will make things better.”

Assassination plot is a massive alt cause

Leigh, Mid East correspondent – TIME, 10/13/’11

(Karen,

)

The supposed plot "is something new,"

AND

, and Iran. There's a deep suspicion."

The tension between Riyadh and Tehran "has

AND

a deep anxiety about [encountering] it."

Until the two Iraq wars involving the U

AND

allies to counterweight the Iranians and their surrogates."

Barfi says that with this latest incident,

AND

to Tehran — the bête noire of Israel.

Foiling the alleged plot against al-Jubeir

AND

"this is exactly what we should expect."

No war

Alexander, 10-10

Vatutin Alexander, political analyst, 10-10, “ Saudi Arabia-Iran tensions posing threat to global oil market,”

Trying to predict the consequences .... tensions further, it will have to deal with the alliance."

Negotiations solve proxy escalation in Bahrain

Stratfor, 7/8/’11

(“Triangle of Intrigue: Iranian-Saudi Negotiations and the U.S. Position”)

The weakness of the U.S. position vis-a-vis..... with Iran, then why should the Saudis coordinate their negotiations with the Americans?

Oil shocks have negligible impact on the global economy – best new studies

Rasmussen, senior economist at the IMF, and Roitman, economist at the IMF, 2/22/2012

[Tobias and Agustin, “Oil Shocks Around the World: Are They Really That Bad?,” ]

Conventional wisdom has it .....countries of less than half of 1%, spread over 2 to 3 years.

Decline doesn’t cause war

Morris Miller, Professor of Administration @ the University of Ottawa, ‘2K

(Interdisciplinary Science Review, v 25 n4 2000 p ingenta connect)

The question may be reformulated..... (thereby using one form of violence to abort another).

Death Cult 2NC O/V

Death debating causes mass violence and genocide – over 80 studies prove.

Solomon, Psych – Brooklyn Clg, Greenberg, Psych – U Ariz, & Pyszczynski, Psych – U Colorado, 2K

(Current Directions in Psychological Science 9.6, Sheldon, Jeff, and Tom, “Fear of Death and Social Behavior”)

Terror management theory posits ...provoked by threats not to material well-being, but to the abstract entity known as self-esteem.

AT: Fear Good: 2NC Offense

*Death impacts decrease our fear of death.

Heather Anne Harder, Ph.D. in Education, 1993

(Exploring Life's Last Frontier, http://www.innerself.com/Miscellaneous/afraid_dying.htm)

One of the most important things to know is that you can prepare now .....this created reality will be a pleasant first encounter, certainly much better than fear or panic.

AT: Fear Good - Nuclear

*The more we talk about nuclear war the less we fear it – the turn is linear.

Carol Cohn, Senior Fellow, CGO and Wellesley College, ‘87

(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, June, 43, “Slick Ems, Glick Ems, Christmas Trees, and Cookie Cutters”)

MY CLOSE ENCOUNTER with nuclear strategic analysis...., set of words. The content of what I could talk about was monumentally different.  

2NC Case O/V

2. Conclusive ev first—their recent cards all say that situation is unstable, not that there will be escalation.

NPR, Neal Conan, host – Talk of the Nation, and Kelly McEvers, correspondent, 1/10/’12

(“One Year Later, Arab Spring Still Reverberating,” )

**note: I put “in Bahrain” in the [brackets] where the transcript said McEvers was “unintelligible” – the recording (available at the URL) is relatively clear, and the context seems to overwhelmingly be about Bahrain

CONAN: And I wanted to ask you, ....has been agitating for years. And so keeping the Bahraini uprising down was very important to Saudi Arabia.

Protests won’t escalate to anything meaningful

Gengler, PhD political science – University of Michigan, 12/8/’11

(Justin, “Gulf apart - Bahrain faces political and sectarian divide,” Jane’s Intelligence Review)

Meanwhile, Bahrain's Shia opposition ....a measure of political stability born of reinforcing stalemates between state and the opposition and within the state.

It will be stuck in a holding pattern of low-level protest---most likely scenario

Gengler, PhD political science – University of Michigan, 12/8/’11

(Justin, “Gulf apart - Bahrain faces political and sectarian divide,” Jane’s Intelligence Review)

Scenario two: Continued political stagnation

Probability High

Resolution of the underlying .... aiming to inflicting damage on Bahrain's economy and international image to force the government to negotiate.

Instability is so annoying

HSJ Online, 2-27

“Unrest in Bahrain,” http://my

AND

1331/Unrest_in_Bahrain.aspx

 The continued civil war between the two

AND

as well as other Americans living in Bahrain.

   A very close family friend, Julie

AND

incidents and concerns regarding the unrest in Bahrain.

During the past year, Castner has

AND

Police are stationed at various locations in Bahrain. 

   “The entry to the predominantly Shiite

AND

and teargas by Shiite protestors,” Castner said.

Despite the unrest in Bahrain, Castner said she feels secure.

   “I have never felt unsafe,”

AND

due to protesting or the traffic being gridlocked.”

Most recent ev

Al-Sarami, 3-5

Nasser al-Sarami,  Head of Media at Al Arabiya, 3-5-2011, “Is the Bahraini crisis over?” Al Arabiya News, http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2012/03/05/198702.html

I talked to a Bahraini official ....fruits of their participation in the political scene and to see efficiency and integrity prevail in state institutions.

Compromise now will retain stability

Gengler, 2-26

Justin Gengler,  Ph.D. in

AND

),” http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/

The first story--which at this point

AND

are largely content to toe the government line.

In order to succeed in this, the

AND

accept any al-Wifaq-brokered deal.)

Stratfor is silly

Fisher, associate editor – the Atlantic, 2/27/’12

(Max,

)

Shortly before the release, Wikileaks told the

AND

target individuals for their corporate and government clients."

Maybe what these emails actually reveal is how

AND

over-eager hackers into believing it's true.

The group's reputation among foreign policy writers,

AND

up to $40,000 per year.

It's true that Stratfor employs on-the

AND

Practices Act, and demands "political oversight."

For comparison's sake, The Atlantic often sends

AND

, and sometimes these sources are even anonymous.

So why do Wikileaks and their hacker source

AND

with his past media partners is mostly gone.

Assange would probably like to regain some of

AND

for this mistake actually lies with Stratfor itself.

The group has spent over a decade trying

AND

Stratfor's "intelligence," was discredited long ago.

2nc crackdowns

Even if crackdowns incite opposition, it’ll stay small-scale

Gengler, PhD political science – University of Michigan, 12/8/’11

(Justin, “Gulf apart - Bahrain faces political and sectarian divide,” Jane’s Intelligence Review)

Despite warnings of a Shia opposition radicalised,

AND

could find no indication of direct Iranian involvement.

Irrespective of Iranian designs, beyond Molotov cocktails

AND

tactical advantage for riot police and intelligence agencies.

Bahrain maintains disproportionately large and well-equipped

AND

GDP over the decade spanning 2000 to 2009.

It also benefits from long-standing security

AND

-million expansion that will double its size.

The BICI report indicated that the main contribution

AND

the Bahrain Financial Harbour and other strategic locations.

Protestors can’t even get to the street

NYT, 12/29/’11

(

)

The uprising here began in February when many

AND

, according to a government-commissioned report.

For its part, the government has chided

AND

, also a member of the royal family.

“Their message is ‘our way or the highway,’ ” he said.

Terrified of repercussions, the opposition dispersed.

AND

“All I Want for Christmas Is You.”

Britain makes the crackdown sustainable

Ulrichsen, Centre for the Study of Global

AND

– RAND Europe, 1/11/’12

(Kristian and Ala’a,

)

Britain has provided legitimacy for the Al Khalifa

AND

they didn't want, most recently in 1923.

A long line of British "advisers"

AND

of Britain's advisory role in Bahrain's security services.

The British eventually left Bahrain in 1971,

AND

the date marking British departure, is forbidden.

Bahrain's foreign minister (himself a member of

AND

quo against the democratic aspirations of ordinary Bahrainis.

From providing the intelligence-gathering software to

AND

raking in the cash from the security crackdown.

They include legal and PR services to advise

AND

as well as organising the Bahrain International Airshow.

Meanwhile, the British government's objective is to

AND

keeping quiet about the appalling human rights abuses.

Much fanfare has been made about the promised

AND

and the near-continuous use of teargas.

This places Bahrain's international partners in a very

AND

Golf Champions tournament, as the unrest continued.

The BICI report raised hopes that the regime

AND

now one of where to go from here.

A delicate balance needs to be identified.

AND

the US fifth fleet, it could be.

Even through indirect influence, British companies should

AND

to suppress its own citizens is deeply problematic.

Saudi would step in immediately

Mutter, graduate student – Arthur L.

AND

Policy In Focus, 6/29/’11

(Paul, Saudi Arabia: Rolling Back

AND

)

The Saudi and Bahraini monarchies recently announced the

AND

i.e., pro-democracy protests.

Bahrain’s government will be seeking accommodations for these

AND

Bahrain is set to receive from the GCC.

The GCC presence has freed up the hard

AND

of protesters have been killed or are missing.

2nc military solves

That makes instability structurally impossible

Rubin, director – Global Research in International

AND

of International Affairs, 4/9/’11

(Barry, “How And Why Most

AND

)

In discussing recent developments in the Middle East

AND

Yemen; and a civil war in Libya.

At the same time, it is important

AND

backs the government there won’t be a revolution.

In Libya, if not for Western intervention

AND

bad but merely an analysis of the situation.

Ali Ahmad, a Saudi dissident who directs

AND

demonstrations there, called the Day of Rage:

“1. The ministry of the interior

AND

was the largest deployment in the country’s history.”

So governments that can depend on their armies

AND

, as is now being proven in Libya.

2. “A large number of Salafi

AND

the mufti issued statements and fatwas barring protest….”

The regimes — including, of course,

AND

of Hamas but they support the existing regime.

“…Saad AlBuraik who is a pro government

AND

sectarian issue, which was an effective tool.”

What is the “Safavid plan?” This

AND

speaking world to challenge the Sunni rulers there.

So the Saudi line is that this is

AND

but Shia versus Sunni, Persians versus Arabs.

This is an alternative version of the usual

AND

people will see through it in few weeks.”

I don’t agree. Appeals to religion and

AND

common to balance somewhat Sunni-Shia rivalries.

A specific problem in Saudi Arabia is the

AND

making them seem that way to most Saudis.

In Bahrain, the other Gulf monarchies including

AND

toppling of the individual who was dictator there.

Leaving aside Libya (an exception generally),

AND

, this is not going to happen elsewhere.

Best theoretical studies confirm

Rivlin, PhD, senior research fellow –

AND

for Middle Eastern and African Studies, ‘4

(Paul, “Political Stability in Arab

AND

Causes and Consequences,” Part One, December)

The phenomenon of coups that characterized Arab regimes

AND

employment to ex-military officers and others.

Empirics prove militaries contain protest instability

Levinson, 2011

Micah Levinson, Junior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council,  3-7-2011, “,” American Spectator, http://spectator.org/archives/2011/03/07/what-makes-jordan-and-bahrain#

History teaches that few minority-..... than Tunisia, Egypt or Libya circa 2011.

2nc no kick out

Saudis will ensure it stays open

McCormick, Clarendon Scholar – Oxford University, writer – Foreign Policy, 7/22/’11

(Ty, “The Arab Recession,” Foreign Policy)

Suzanne Maloney, a senior ..... of $20 billion to stabilize Bahrain and Oman) the home of the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet is unlikely to sink anytime soon.

Instability won’t cause it

Vandiver, 11

(Columnist-Stars & Stripes, Independent

AND

)

STUTTGART, Germany — It remains business as

AND

place in the vicinity of the naval base.

We would never withdraw it

Guyer, assistant editor – The Middle East Channel, 5/26/’11

(Jonathan, middleeast.newamerica.net

AND

_interests_and_values_52035)

Bahrain is one of those instances where US

AND

the US naval base has barely been questioned.

If Bahrain does not end its brutal tactics

AND

a longstanding partner", to heed unwanted advice.

None of the opposition wants to kick us out

Hokayem, Middle East analyst – International Institute for Strategic Studies, 10/19/’11

(Emile, “U.S.

AND

)

One idea for U.S. action

AND

leave, with the prospect of greater oppression.

2nc no impact

He thinks a bunch of other stuff is key

Zbigniew Brzezinski 12, was U.S

AND

the West”, Foreign Affairs, January/February

The United States' central challenge over the next

AND

indefinitely avoid a more formal connection with China.

2nc no iran influence

Only hard data goes neg

Guyer, assistant editor – The Middle East Channel, 5/26/’11

(Jonathan, middleeast.newamerica.net

AND

_interests_and_values_52035)

In the last months, government forces have

AND

a government based on religion a la Iran).

You should prefer trends and actual statements from protestors over their speculation

Ali, member (Al Wefaq party)

AND

the Century Foundation, 4/3/’11

(Jasim and Geneive, "Misunderstanding Bahrain's

AND

/2011/03/201132982742988712.html)

The Shia in Bahrain have recently been distancing

AND

e Faqih, the concept of supreme clerical rule

ov

Prefer our ev—Cunningham is global research

Jewish Tribune, 8/25/’5

()

B’nai Brith Canada reacted with concern after reviewing

AND

anti-Jewish conspiracy theories and Holocaust denial.

“There is no doubt about it.

AND

, executive vice president of B’nai Brith Canada.

“We have written to officials at the

AND

does not find its way into the classroom.”

The story broke last weekend in the Ottawa Citizen in an article by Pauline Tam.

The Citizen said the web site also reprints

AND

real perpetrators of the recent attacks on London.

The site, which is not hosted by

AND

of B'nai Brith Canada after receiving public complaints.

The organization singles out a discussion forum,

AND

Jews Frame the Arabs for 9/11?

Another posting suggests the number of Jews who died at Auschwitz during the Second World War is inflated.

2nc no revolutions

Unrest can’t topple the regime and doesn’t threaten oil output

CNBC 3/11 (Saudi Arabia Regime

AND

)

Police and protesters clashed in Saudi Arabia Thursday

AND

, according to analysts at the Eurasia Group.

 “The house of Saud will survive

AND

output,” the analysts said in a note.

Friday’s protest participants “unlike protesters in Tunisia

AND

system,’” the Eurasia report said.

"The majority of Saudi opposition figures want reform within the existing system," the analysts added.

One of the areas of planned protests, Qatif, is located close to a major pipeline.

But “it is unlikely… protesters will

AND

response from the government,” the analysts said.

“Things could get complicated if the Saudi

AND

to the existing system, not total reform.

“The Saudi government has both resources and

AND

mass protests do not automatically equal regime demise.”

Economic and social concessions stop escalation

Moubayed, Syrian university professor, editor-

AND

Magazine (Syria), 9/28/’11

(Sami, A peek under Saudi Arabia's

AND

)

King Abdullah, aged 87, knows what

AND

on measures like affordable housing for young Saudis.

Many young newly married couples have complained that

AND

required from him to keep his people happy.

Abdullah realized that times had changed since he

AND

, since demonstrations began in Tunisia last December.

In Saudi Arabia, it immediately triggered an

AND

Qatif, al-Awamiyah, and Riyadh.

Demonstrators called for a "day of rage

AND

Arabia down the path of Egypt and Bahrain.

Abdullah wanted the Saudis to see him as

AND

was the case with Mubarak, for example.

At the weekend, King Abdullah took his

AND

for the first time ever in Saudi history.

The Riyadh-based council is a powerful

AND

and in the clerical community of Saudi Arabia.

"We refuse to marginalize the role of

AND

at schools, restaurants, banks and work.

2nc no war

No hot war

Hokayem, senior fellow for regional security –

AND

coordinator – IISS, 10/27/’11

(Emile and Dina, “Rising tensions

AND

)

The failed assassination attempt on the Saudi ambassador

AND

the Saudis have yet to take decisive action.

So what can they do? One thing

AND

. But Saudi Arabia does have other options:

Firstly, the economic option. Saudi Arabia

AND

at a meeting in the UK this summer.

It is not the first time that Saudi

AND

financial prospects on the long term are dire.

Politically, Saudi Arabia could use its clout

AND

as a Western and Israeli-driven conspiracy.

The Saudis could take it a step further

AND

reluctant powers to re-examine their posture.

Another proposed option is a reduction in the

AND

including Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Bahrain.

The Saudis have also unleashed a media campaign

AND

the Arabs, while Israel comes only second.

Finally, the Saudis could respond to the

AND

may see a need to retaliate in kind.

oil shocks D

That’s the best data and empirics

Rasmussen, senior economist at the IMF,

AND

at the IMF, 2/22/2012

[Tobias and Agustin, “Oil Shocks

AND

.theoildrum.com/node/8944]

The message is clear. In more than

AND

if present, is not substantial across countries.

Saudi DA link turn

Constitutional reform spark uprisings in the Eastern province

Youssef, 12/13

(Columnist-McClathcy Newspaper, “Saudi influence could be key to outcome in Bahrain”, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/02/23/v-print/109290/saudi-influence-could-be-key-to.html

MANAMA, Bahrain — Even ..... to leave the streets and that small changes be managed by the elite. They want a slow process."

Biggest threat to stability

ICG, 11

4/6, “The Bahrain Revolt

AND

iii-the%20bahrain%20revolt.pdf

In turn, Saudi Arabia perceives any Shiite

AND

Bahrain, who constitute roughly half its population.

Any political gains trigger the link

Stratfor, 11

(3/2, “Fear of Domestic Unrest in Saudi Arabia,” http://www.stratfor.com/node/186507/geopolitical_diary/20110301-fear-domestic-unrest-saudi-arabia)

Terrified at the prospect of .... to extract concessions from their minority Sunni rulers.

Bigger internal link to Shiites – gains are more inspiring than failures

Birnbaum, 11

(WP Columnist, 2/24,

AND

/02/23/AR2011022307070.html)

It was a trip that underscored the extent

AND

Saudi Arabia was willing to make some reforms."

Oman oil

Oman also mediates between Iran and the US—they’d stop any crisis from escalating.

Bypasses our defense

Mobius, PhD econ and poli sci –

AND

Emerging Marketing Group, 5/17/’11

(Mark, “Oman,” Investment Adventures

AND

)

I recently visited Muscat, the capital of

AND

has a big responsibility to protect that waterway.

Like its neighbors, Saudi Arabia and the

AND

was utilizing gas from the country’s natural resources.

Qabus mediation solves the aff’s scenario

Lefebvre, associate professor of political science – University of Connecticut, ‘10

(Jeffrey A. “Oman's Foreign Policy

AND

. 1, p. 99-114)

Nonetheless, Muscat cannot escape (nor would

AND

the security of the entire Persian Gulf.⁴⁷

Separated from the rest of Oman by a

AND

, but truly committed a tragic mistake.⁴⁹

Key to naval presence

Escobar, correspondent – Asia Times, has

AND

and Real News, 3/1/’11

(Pepe, “How Uprisings in a

AND

in a Matter of Days,” Alter Net)

Oman is not exactly an accident of history

AND

mouth of the exceedingly strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Oman is not exactly a recent family hacienda

AND

longer than the US has been a country.

But let's add some juice to all this

AND

, but the progressive, modernizing impetus remain.

uq

Qaboos is hanging on to power now—

AND

monarchy undermines his leadership and triggers the impacts**

Barrett, senior fellow – Joint Special Ops

AND

PhD Mid East History – UT, ‘11

(Roby, “Oman: The Present

AND

, August, p. 65-66)

First and perhaps foremost, the Sultan Qaboos

AND

political stability and continuity and an orderly succession.

Security issues dominated the first 10 years of

AND

liberalization and democracy at the expense of stability.

Stability now, but Oman’s on the brink

Khoury, Middle East Institute, 4/28/’11

(Rana,

AND

)

Sultan Qaboos, the ruler of Oman,

AND

clouded and the people’s grievances will continue indefinitely.

Most recent evidence

Melhem, Washington bureau chief – Al-Arabiya News Channel, 1/13/’12

(Hisham,

AND

)

One of the most striking characteristics of Arab

AND

that could underpin effective and assertive political leadership.

Oman china

Oman stability and oil is key to South Korean energy access

The Guardian, 1/15/’12

(http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/10042890)

SEOUL, Jan 16 (Reuters) -

AND

options, including reducing crude imports from Tehran.

South Korea, the world's fifth-largest

AND

the United Arab Emirates for oil supply talks.

"Both sides have agreed to closely cooperate

AND

to the meetings between Oman and South Korea.

Domestic media also quoted an official in the

AND

if South Korea had difficulties in importing crude.

Checks China rise

Raska, PhD candidate – Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, ‘11

(Michael, http://www.spp

AND

/Predictable_Uncertainty_raska.pdf)

Accordingly, as a response to growing Chinese

AND

of advanced command, control and communications systems.

Nuclear war

Walton, lecturer in IR and strategic studies – University of Reading, ‘7

(C. Dale, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49)

Obviously, it is of vital importance to

AND

is not marked by close great power alliances.

kuwait

Kuwait key to deter Iran

Hajjar, Professor and Director of Middle East Studies – US Army War College, ‘2

(Sami G, “U.S

AND

THE GULF: CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS,” March)

U.S.-Kuwait bilateral relations,

AND

States a lucrative market for arms sales.119

Kuwait’s key to regional power projection

Terrill, PhD, Mid East expert – Strategic Studies Institute, ‘7

(W. Andrew, “KUWAITI NATIONAL

AND

.-KUWAITI STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP AFTER SADDAM,” September)

Kuwait has been a close military partner of

AND

conservative Islamists, such as members of the Kuwaiti

Kuwait instability causes oil shocks—destroy the global economy

LA Times 11, ("Oil prices soar

AND

-fi-gas-prices-20110308)

 Reports of intensified fighting in Libya propelled

AND

oil production could last longer than initially expected.

Another day of rising oil prices meant falling

AND

and the Nasdaq composite fell 1.4%.

At the fuel pump, the relentless rise

AND

a gallon, up 13.7 cents.

Oil is the driving factor behind gasoline's surge

AND

day's trading high of $106.95.

The European benchmark Brent crude for April delivery

AND

daily crude oil production has been shut down.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said Monday that

AND

a major disruption in the flow of oil.

The idea of tapping the strategic reserves worries

AND

James DiGeorgia, editor of GoldAndEnergyAdvisor.com.

"What if we tap it now and

AND

will just go up anyway," DiGeorgia said.

As long as populist unrest doesn't spread to

AND

gasoline prices close to $5 a gallon."

Increasing oil prices are stoking inflation worries,

AND

margins in the face of higher energy costs.

"With the economy struggling along, the

AND

at Dunvegan Associates Inc. in Santa Barbara.

internal link

Basing key

Terrill, PhD, Mid East expert – Strategic Studies Institute, ‘7

(W. Andrew, “KUWAITI NATIONAL

AND

.-KUWAITI STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP AFTER SADDAM,” September)

This monograph has illustrated that the destruction of

AND

military personnel to be the best possible guests.

Military presence contains instability

Korb, senior fellow – Center for American Progress, 7/9/’7

(Lawrence, “The Way Out,”

AND

)

The forces in Kuwait, plus the offshore

AND

U.S. economic or security interests.

uq

Kuwait’s in a holding pattern now—won’t call for major reforms

FT, 3/28/’11

(“Comment: Kuwait shows revolution’s nuances”)

On Kuwait City’s seafront close to midnight,

AND

of a tiny and almost genteel political protest.

They are calling for wide-ranging political

AND

President Hosni Mubarak from power only last month.

“Don’t think it’s like [Cairo’s]

AND

change our president, because we love him.”

Their cautious words and support for the ruler

AND

political temperature of an Egypt or a Libya.

The first Kuwaiti lesson is that people do

AND

feelings expressed in poorer and more repressive countries.

An adviser to the Kuwaiti Emir – while

AND

country is still an open “$6m question”.

“Every country says: ‘We are

AND

can predict what will happen in the future.”

Kuwait also highlights the risk that, in

AND

should be given nationality but are denied it.

Another point teased out by Kuwait is the

AND

miss the moment if they do not demonstrate.

Protests are small scale and demands are limited

Krakoff, analyst – Emerging Markets Outlook, 12/27/’11

(Charles, http://www.emergingmarketsoutlook.com/?p=1765)

Kuwait, meanwhile, has avoided the flashy

AND

, though, that keep the country stable.

The Dow Chemical fiasco, however embarrassing it

AND

Keystone XL pipeline in the U.S.

No one would mistake Kuwait’s government for a

AND

other smart, educated, and motivated women.

In late November, hundreds of protesters,

AND

and so far no one has been jailed.

New elections

AFP 12-21, ("Kuwaitis register

AND

)

 KUWAIT CITY — Candidates began registering on

AND

for major changes to the fully elected house.

Several candidates who filed nomination papers said they

AND

and achieve stability in the wealthy Gulf state.

"The change in this election will be

AND

submitting his candidacy for the February 2 vote.

Abdullah al-Oteibi, a 34-

AND

elect an honest chamber that will fight corruption".

At the end of the first day,

AND

names. The process ends on December 30.

Former Shiite MP Saleh Ashour, who supported

AND

changed as he bid for re-election.

"The major change and the success of

AND

and lead to relative stability," Jamal said.

Most recent evidence

Melhem, Washington bureau chief – Al-Arabiya News Channel, 1/13/’12

(Hisham,

AND

)

One of the most striking characteristics of Arab

AND

that could underpin effective and assertive political leadership.

at: relations resilient

Popular empowerment in Kuwait causes a surge of anti-Americanism—ends cooperation

Priymak, reporter – Pravda news agency (Russia), 11/30/’11

(Arthur,

AND

)

Leonid Ivashov, Colonel-General, President

AND

the motives of Emir with Pravda.Ru:

"Kuwait has been moving towards the "

AND

resigned to prevent a revolution in the country.

"Kuwait clearly sees what is happening in

AND

there is palpable hatred towards America and Israel.

"Iran cannot be disregarded either as it

AND

countries; many are still in politics today.


Salafis will take over

Asadollah, PhD Petroleum Dept and Mid East

AND

Science and Technology, 9/22/’11

(Masoud,

AND

)

IRD: Can the strikes (and opposition

AND

considered as a continuation of the Arab Spring?

MA: We should keep in mind that

AND

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and Bahrain.

The present parliament consists of the Sunnis,

AND

the Kuwait’s positions in domestic and foreign policies.

It is interesting that the Kuwaiti Shiite parliament

AND

the Salafists and the country’s government and Emir.

 IRD: What are the demands of these groups?

MA: These radical Salafist groups began their

AND

against economic corruption to create a new movements.

IRD: Since these Salafist groups are fighting

AND

Gulf Cooperation Council or Saudi Arabia supports them?

MA: The Saudi government will not do

AND

support all Salafist movements all over the world.

IRD: As you mentioned, Salafists do

AND

What will be the target of these movements?

MA: It cannot be predicted now,

AND

the Salafists will take advantage of the situation.

That ends coop with the US

Al-Anani, visiting fellow, foreign

AND

Mid East Policy @ Brookings, June ‘8

(Khalil, “Salafists Ascendant in the

AND

)

As an ideal or a scholarly pursuit,

AND

alienating anyone with a different faith or mind.

So why is the public lapping it all

AND

lost all hope in ever becoming influential again.

The regimes tolerated Salafis, sometimes even encouraged

AND

a course that turned out disastrous in hindsight.

More alarming is the possibility that the ascendance

AND

by Hizbullah's recent show of force in Beirut.

And destroys stability and causes terrorism

AFPC, American Foreign Policy Council, 7/14/’11

(World Almanac of Islamism, “Kuwait,” http://almanac.afpc.org/Kuwait)

Another factor in the Kuwaiti political system are

AND

in a more fundamentalist path in the future.

AFf was psychoanalysis  (UMKC)

1nc

T-Transfer

Necrophilia K

PNTR ptix

Imperialism K

Scaf DA

Cp text - The United States federal government should facilitate the process of Truth and Reconciliation regarding its previous and current democratization policies in Yemen, Tunisia, Syria, Libya, and Bahrain.