Off
US is limiting DA to appease the Saudis
Shanahan, 11
(Chief of Army Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy and is now a non-resident Fellow at the Institute, http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2011/06/23/Washington-Riyadh-and-the-Arab-Spring.aspx)
Equally important, the Gulf remains a … to American exceptionalism.
US push for reform in Bahrain will break US-Saudi relations
Intl Crisis Group, 11
(7/28, Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iran-gulf/bahrain.aspx)
Following on the heels of the Tunisian … and Syria, but not in Bahrain.
That forces the Saudis to kick out migrants – unemployment concerns
Douglas, 11
(Columnist-The Gulf Online, June, http://www.thegulfonline.com/Articles.aspx?ArtID=3521)
The countries of the Gulf Co-operation Council (… rethinking of migration policies.
Losing Saudi as a remittance source causes south Asian economic collapse
Haq 11
(http://www.riazhaq.com/2011/02/economic-impact-of-arab-revolt-in-south.html, President of PakAlumni Worldwide & Former Econ Prof at Rutgers, 2/27)
Political fall-out from the events in … in South Asia in 2011 and beyond.
Nuclear war
Walayat 10 (Editor-Market Oracle, 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash, http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16543.html)
Pakistan Collapse Could Trigger … falls out of Pakistan's borders.
seabasing
The United States Federal Government should authorize and provide resources for the completion of operational sea basing capabilities at the earliest possible date.
Seabasing solves credibility
Klein and Morales 4
United States Naval Institute, Lt. Com John and Col. Rich, both of USN
http://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=7854563
Sea Basing will affect other … the United States and its allies.
Achievable by 2015 – assuming normal rates of production – you should assume that the CP occurs faster since it specifies earliest *possible*
Commander Daniel L. Allen 06 United States Navy U.S. Army War College Master of Strategic Studies Degree, "IS SEA BASED SUSTAINMENT ACHIEVABLE BY 2015?"
Both the Focused Logistics … and joint Seabasing logistics support.36
Pressure CP 2NC
Pressure solves the case and avoids politics
Dietz, 11
(Columnist-The Mideaster, http://themideaster.com/2011/04/21/should-the-us-reconsider-its-relationship-with-bahrain/)
Nevertheless America must exert pressure ….even if it is not always convenient.
They say yes
Bryan, 11
(Politico Columnist, 4/11, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0411/52885.html)
The Obama administration must ….have a say in their country’s future.
Their ev says pressure solves
Ulrichsen, 2011
ULRICHSEN 2011 (Kristian Coates Ulrichsen is a research fellow at the London School of Economics, “Gulf States: studious silence falls on Arab Spring,” Open Democracy, April 25, http://www.opendemocracy.net/kristian-coates-ulrichsen/gulf-states-studious-silence-falls-on-arab-spring)
These depressing developments … of its core mission…”[18]
AT: Links To Politics
Spending argument
The plan wouldn’t be perceived – also means we solve credibility with Shia
Leigh 11
Journalist at Time and Hindustan Times, The U.S. and Bahrain:, Wednesday, June 08, 2011, Time, http://www.time.com/0,8599,2076559,00.html
At stake going forward is the U.S.'s …. stops raining down on Manama.
no shitte win
Instability over – government crackdown
WSJ 11
("Bahrain Opposition Faces Uphill Effort," 3-28, online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703576204576227050727063170.html)
MANAMA—Bahrain's Shiite-led opposition … confidence that protests can be stifled.
2NC AT: Solvency – King
Arms sale takes out credibility
Washington Post, 9-29
Editorial Board, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/arms-sales-to-repressive-bahrain-misplaced/2011/09/29/gIQASnhH8K_story.html
Such a unanimous verdict from … be a good way to start.
2nc – no iran agression
No risk of Iranian aggression
Multiple factors preclude Iran gaining influence through the Arab Spring
Kaye, 11
(Senior Political Scientist-RAND, Foreign Affairs, Jul-August, Lexis)
Still, although Iran and its allies …widespread backlash within Iraq against Iran.
2nc – no proxy war
Iran won’t launch a war over Bahrain
Barzegar, 2011
Kayhan Barzegar, 4-20-2011, Faculty Member, Department of International Relations, Science and Research University, Tehran, Iran, Former Associate, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program, 2010–2011; Former Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/international Security Program, 2007–2010, "Iran's Interests and Values and the 'Arab Spring'"
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/20954/irans_interests_and_values_and_the_arab_spring.html
Iran will not initiate any … continued presence in the Persian Gulf.
US checks Iranian aggression
Carmon, 11
(Haggai Carmon, international attorney, “Iran vs. Saudi Arabia in Bahrain?”, May 13, 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/haggai-carmon/iran-vs-saudi-arabia-in-b_b_847825.html)TJ
Thus far the Iranians are wary … to attentively in Washington, D.C.
2nc – no pakistan impact
Saudi Arabia won’t proliferate – no indigenous capability, they couldn’t buy one, and a U.S. Security Guarantee would be effective
Posen, 2006
Barry Posen, professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2006, “A Nuclear-Armed Iran: A Difficult But Not Impossible Policy Problem”, Century Foundation Project, http://tcf.org/publications/internationalaffairs/posen_nuclear-armed.pdf
Saudi Arabia would face similar, though … likely would prove the most attractive option for Saudi Arabia.
2nc – no escalation
No Middle East escalation – leaders value stability and use proxy groups instead of militaries, that’s Fettweis.
Empirics are conclusive – tons of war in the region and zero escalation – that’s Drum. Empirical evidence is better than theoretical
a) Better scholarship
Fettweis, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College, ‘7
(Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98)
Firstly, and perhaps most obviously, … is not likely to be either.
b) Best Middle East methodology
Luttwak, senior associate – CSIS, professor – Georgetown and Berkeley, 5/26/’7
(Edward, “The middle of nowhere,” Prospect Magazine)
Why are middle east experts …. as are killed in a season of conflict in Darfur.
2nc – fifth fleet
Shift to other bases solve the impact
Koplovsky, 6
(PhD-Naval War College, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA463412&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)
WEIGHING BASING … inside the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.
Bryan – no one wants us out
Unrest won’t spillover to effect the base
Vandiver, 11
(Columnist-Stars & Stripes, Independent News Agency for Military Community, 2/16, http://www.stripes.com/news/navy-bahrain-protests-not-affecting-u-s-base-1.135025
STUTTGART, Germany — It … place in the vicinity of the naval base.
Decline doesn’t cause war – no enemy is strong enough to escalate – we would never intervene in a big war because of domestic constraints and our allies are strong enough to survive even if we withdraw – that’s Adams.
No plausible scenario
Goldstein, 11
[ Joshua S. Goldstein is professor emeritus of international relations at American University and author of Winning the War on War: The Decline of Armed Conflict Worldwide. “ Think Again: War,” 8/15/2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/15/think_again_war?page=0,3]
Nor do shifts in the global balance … a single shot in battle in 25 years.
Other factors determine conflict
Ikenberry, 9 - Prof. Int’l Affairs @ Princeton (G. John et al, World Politics, Vol. 61, No. 1, p. Muse)
Two major theoretical traditions deal … do with unipolarity.
Their evidence is academic junk
Friedman 10 research fellow in defense and homeland security, Cato. PhD candidate in pol sci, MIT (Ben, Military Restraint and Defense Savings, 20 July 2010, http://www.cato.org/testimony/ct-bf-07202010.html, )
Another argument for high military … providing no obvious benefit.
Uniqueness
SKFTA will pass – vote counts and Obama push – means he will convince the house to pass TAA and SKFTA – that’s Needham – prefer our evidence it cites long term trends rather than snapshots of the squo. Even if they win it wont pass now Obama’s PC means that it will when the vote comes up – their evidence is not conclusive
TAA will be voted and passed with FTAs
Holland 10/2 (Steve Holland REUTERS Sunday October 2, 2011 Delayed trade pacts may reach Congress in days http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/national_world/2011/10/02/delayed-trade-pacts-may-reach-congress-in-days.html)
Obama has been holding off … to the trade deals’ approval.
Fast track because of lee visit
Korea Herald 10/2 (Speed up ratification 2011-10-02 Korea Herald http://www.koreaherald.com/opinion/Detail.jsp?newsMLId=20111002000089)
U.S. President Barack … and Panama to Congress.
Vote counts
Inside U.S. Trade, 9-23
LOBBYISTS: MORE THAN 200 REPUBLICANS MAY SUPPORT KOREA, COLOMBIA FTAS
SECTION: Vol. 29 No. 37
Business lobbyists believe that … is expected to oppose it.
It will pass – no political roadblocks
NAWG 9/19 (National Association of Wheat Growers, “Senate deal could prompt movement on pending FTAs”, http://southwestfarmpress.com/government/senate-deal-could-prompt-movement-pending-ftas)
The GSP/TAA bill would … more than four years ago.
AT: Thumpers
Prefer issue-specific evidence – it assumes other agenda items
Issues don’t cost capital until they are at the finish line
Drumm, 10
(Political Columnist-Mother Jones, “Immigration Coming Off the Back Burner?”, Mar. 30, 2010)
Not to pick on Ezra or … they will be soon.
Top of the agenda
Arirang 10/2 (“Pending Free Trade Deals May Go to Congress as Early as Monday”, http://www.arirang.co.kr/News/News_View.asp?nseq=121011&code=Ne8&category=1)
US President Barack … next week.
No PC loss over china
The Hill, 9/28/’11
(http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/184289-china-currency-reid-playing-for-leverage-with-jobs-bill)
The bill would crack down … of House-passed bills.
Haven’t even scheduled a vote
Nakamura, writer for the Washington Post, 9/29/2011
[David, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/44/post/white-houses-carney-makes-wager-on-obama-jobs-bill/2011/09/29/gIQATp7o7K_blog.html]
After all, the reporter added… leaders about the jobs plan.
White House has delayed taking it to the Congress
Helderman, writer for the Washington Post, 9/27/2011
[Rosalind, http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2016337235_jobsplan28.html]
The aide predicted the …," the aide said.
[NOTE: The aide = senior Democratic aide in the Senate.]
No Pass Korea
Their ev is terrible – just says opposition not that it wont pass
Will pass in Korea – bipartisan now
Korea Herald 10/2 (Speed up ratification 2011-10-02 Korea Herald http://www.koreaherald.com/opinion/Detail.jsp?newsMLId=20111002000089)
In this regard, the … motion being railroaded.
US ratification causes ROK ratification
Inside U.S. Trade, 9-23
SEOUL TAKES STEP TOWARD FTA PASSAGE, BUT PATH FORWARD THIS FALL UNCLEAR
SECTION: Vol. 29 No. 37
This week, the U.S. Senate …he should have, Jaung argued.
Vote No
Fiat tests should not would – political ramifications are a consequence of the plan – fiat means the plan is introduced and passed in Congress – that’s the best interpretation of fiat – anything else kills politics and perception DAs which are key to neg ground
Link
Plan drains PC – budget pressures mean foreign aid is the bottom priority in Congress – attempts to expand it cause backlash against spending – that’s McLaughlin. Even if pop in theory backlash against specifics – no reason the public not key
Money frames the link debate – even if Congress likes the plan, they won’t pay for it
Richter, Chicago Tribune Washington bureau, 4/13/’11
(Paul, “Spending concerns sidetrack aid efforts,” http://m.spokesman.com/stories/2011/apr/13/spending-concerns-sidetrack-aid-efforts/)
WASHINGTON – The Obama … fight over budget cuts.
The link outweighs the turns
b) The link goes one way – new foreign initiatives necessarily lose
Miller 9/22/11 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/22/the_do_nothing_strategy?page=0,2 Aaron David Miller is a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and a former U.S. Middle East negotiator. His new book, Can America Have Another Great President?, will be published in 2012.
Still, amid all the fog and … issues like Israel.
AT: Plan Reallocated
Reallocation destroys implementation – turns case
McInerney, Executive Director – Project on Middle East Democracy, ‘11
(Stephen, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012, DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST,” POMED, July)
These problems on the Congressional … of the bill by Congress.
Reallocations for the plan still causes a budget fight
Stone, senior correspondent – Huffington Post, 5/18/’11
(Andrea, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/18/obama-middle-east-speech-billions-aid_n_863927.html)
The president’s speech will … objections to erasing Egypt's debt.
Relations
It’s key to the alliance – lee evidence says it would be a huge psychological blow to Korea – means we access their adventurism arguments better – proves that US engagement in asia is important
Even if the deal isn’t key to relations, failure to pass it destroys the alliance
Cooper, Specialist, International Trade and Finance – CRS, 3/1/’11
(William H, “The Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Provisions and Implications,” http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/key_workplace/813/)
In contrast, while the passage of … rather than economic, relations.
Japan Solves
It would take days to relocate troops
Dao 3 (1/5/03, James, NY Times, “Why Keep U.S. Troops in South Korea?” http://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/05/weekinreview/05JDAO.html)
In addition, the United States is … time it takes to get then across the Pacific," he said.
AT: Impact D
Power struggle makes military provocations likely
Herman, 9/8
http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/east-pacific/North-Korean-Power-Struggle-Options-Discussed-129466238.html
“Many people [in North Korea… is really in charge.”
High probability of conflict—recent events prove
Jimo, 8/13
(Professor of Policy Management-Keio University, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/08/13/did-deterrence-against-north-korea-fail-in-2010/
The sinking of the Cheonan and shelling … the Yeonpyeong case were relatively low in intensity.
Overview
Conceded impact to North Korea – escalates to global war and draws in multiple powers – conceded argument – no new answers – try or die for the neg
Key to global trade networks
Cooper, Specialist, International Trade and Finance – CRS, 3/1/’11
(William H, “The Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Provisions and Implications,” http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/key_workplace/813/)
Since the early 2000s, U.S. use of … economic ties with major trading partners.
Solves the case—studies prove trade deters conflicts
Griswold 5
– director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute (Daniel, “Peace on earth? Try free trade among men,” 12-29-2005, http://www.freetrade.org/node/282) JMP
Buried beneath the daily stories … its own peace dividend.
Goes nuclear
Landy, National Security Expert @ Knight Ridder, 3/10/’2K
(Jonathan, Knight Ridder, lexis)
Few if any experts think China …, according to the Commerce Department.
