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1NC ASPEC

They have to specify their agent. 

They destroy in-depth debate on the topic and core ground
Spence, 4
(Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law Stanford University, http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20741/Spence-_CDDRL_10-4_draf1.pdf)

Comparing American and … between policy goals.

Clarifying is aff conditionality – destroys ground with unlimited 2AC specification.

1NC POLITICS

FTAs will pass now, but Obama must use capital to get the GOP on board-crucial to restore credibility in Asian regional trade
Palmer, 9/2
(Reuters Columnist, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902)

This month business … the trade pacts.

Democracy assistance drains political capital
McLaughlin, contributing writer – The Washington Diplomat, 5/31/’11
(Seth, “Key Foreign Policy Players Try to Master Capitol Hill,” The Washington Diplomat)

But it's not … by $39 million.

Key to global trade networks
Cooper, Specialist, International Trade and Finance – CRS, 3/1/’11
(William H, “The Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Provisions and Implications,” http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/key_workplace/813/)

Since the early … major trading partners.

Solves U.S.-China trade war
Bergsten, Director – Institute for International Economics, 9/6/’5
(Fred, “A New Strategy for APEC,” http://www.pecc.org/ftaap/papers/PECCXVI-GM-Bergsten.pdf)

Only an FTAAP … the entire region.

Extinction
The Strait Times 6/25/’2K l/n

THE high-intensity … above everything else.

1NC CANADA CP

Canada should provide support for transparent democratic governance in Libya.

Canada solves Libya-established relationships and expertise
CBC News, 9/12/11
http://www.cbc.ca/m/rich/news/politics/story/2011/09/12/pol-libya-canadians-back.html
Canadian diplomats are … rule of law," the official said.

1NC COERCION DA

Foreign aid is government coercion and destroys liberty
DiLorenzo, professor of economics at Loyola College, 1/6/2005
(Thomas, “A Foreign Aid Disaster in the Making,” http://www.mises.org/fullstory.aspx?Id=1715)
Politicians are bound … country’s central government.

Impact: 

1. Genocidal nightmares of Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union
   Browne, former Libertarian presidential candidate, 1995
   (Harry, executive director of public policy at American Liberty Foundation, editor of Liberty Magazine, financial advisor and economist, Why Government Doesn’t Work, pg 66-67)
   The reformers of the … that came before.

2. Moral side constraint
Petro, Wake Forest Professor in Toledo Law Review, 1974
(Sylvester, Spring, page 480)
However, one may … with undying spirit.

1NC DEMOCRACY PIC

The United States federal government should provide support for transparent governance in Libya.

Liberal democracy promotion paints non-democratic states as ontological enemies – ensures intervention
Hobson, Department of International Politics – Aberystwyth University, ‘9
(Christopher, “The Limits of Liberal-Democracy Promotion,” Alternatives 34, p. 383 – 405)

There are serious … the international community.47

That causes escalating warfare and turns case
Jahn, Professor of International Relations – University of Sussex, ‘7
(Beate, “The Tragedy of Liberal Diplomacy: Democratization, Intervention, Statebuilding (Part I),” Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding, 1:1, 87-106)

In the first … of liberal diplomacy.

The role of the ballot is to democratize the meaning of democracy – rejecting the initial focus on the liberal model in favor of contestation creates more effective promotion
Kurki, Lecturer in International Relations Theory, ‘10
(Milja, “Democracy and Conceptual Contestability: Reconsidering Conceptions of Democracy in Democracy Promotion,” International Studies Review Vol. 12, Iss. 3, September)

This approach has … and political power.

1NC STABILITY ADV

No impact – Libya’s irrelevant
Walt 8-24, professor of international relations at Harvard University, (Stephen, "Why the Libyan revolution may not matter very much," 2011, walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/23/why_the_libyan_revolution_may_not_matter_very_much

All eyes have … keep that in mind too.

US is better out of the way – aid becomes politicized, triggers backlash and kills the transition
Lacher 8-29, Associate, Middle East and Africa Division, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, (Wolfram, "The International Role in Post-Qadhafi Libya? Withdraw." 2011 www.mepc.org/articles-commentary/commentary/international-role-post-qadhafi-libya-withdraw) 

Planning is ongoing … ahead to the Libyans.

No escalation
Fettweis, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College, ‘7
(Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98) 

Without the US … than outright warfare.

Empirics prove
Kevin Drum, Staff Writer for the Washington Monthly, 9/9/’7
(http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_09/012029.php)

Having admitted, however, that … No regional conflagration. 

1NC HEG

Alt causes outweigh the plan
Duss, policy analyst and director – Middle East Progress @ Center for American Progress, 7/21/’11
(Matthew, http://middleeastprogress.org/2011/07/arab-opinions-of-us-unchanged-by-speeches/)

A new Zogby … Tunisia’s new constitution.

Especially Israel
WSJ, 11, ("Obama to Pledge New Mideast Aid," 5-18, online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704281504576329692899835726.html) 

 WASHINGTON—President Barack … to generate much enthusiasm."

The US can’t spin the plan
Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, (Marc, "U.S. public diplomacy and the Arab uprisings," 4-13, lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/04/13/us_public_diplomacy_and_the_arab_uprisings?wpisrc=obnetwork) 

That's the good.  But … has to get better.  

US veto of Palestine statehood overwhelms the aff
Turki, 9/12
Prince Turki Al-Faisal, chairman of the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies and a former ambassador to the United States, 9/12/11, Veto a State, Lose an Ally, http://www.susris.com/2011/09/16/could-un-palestine-vote-alter-us-saudi-relations/

The United States … of justice and peace.

Lack of support won’t hurt cooperation
Terrill, research professor, national security affairs – Strategic Studies Institute, 8/2/’11
(W. Andrew, “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2) 

The Arab Spring … is vital to both countries.

Soft power doesn’t influence decisionmaking
Ogoura 6 (Kazuo, President of the Japan Foundation, “The Limits of Soft Power”, http://www.cgp.org/index.php?option=article&task=default&articleid=341)

One blind spot … source of its clout.

No challengers
Kaplan, senior fellow – Center for a New American Security, and Kaplan, frmr. vice chairman – National Intelligence Council, ‘11
(Robert D and Stephen S, “America Primed,” The National Interest, March/April)

But in spite … free of illusion.

No impact to decline
Adams, Professor U.S. Foreign Policy Program – American University, Distinguished Fellow – Stimson Center, ‘11
(Gordon, “A Leaner and Meaner Defense,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90 Iss. 1, January/February) 

Some people point … reform, and economic development.

Heg doesn’t solve war
Mastanduno, 9 – Professor of Government at Dartmouth
(Michael, World Politics 61, No. 1, Ebsco) 

During the cold … its own way.

1NC OIL SHOCKS ADV

Libyan oil recovery doesn’t impact the market – slow market response
National Journal 8-22, ("Could We See a ‘Libya Stimulus’?" 2011, www.nationaljournal.com/domesticpolicy/could-we-see-a-libya-stimulus20110822)

 In other words, an … it’s going to be.”

Oil won’t recover for 3 years
Pfeifer 11 (Sylvia, Energy editor for the Financial Times, 6/16, “IEA forecasts slow recovery for Libyan oil”, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1a5e6a8a-97eb-11e0-85e9-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Vg1Fw0zZ) 

Libya’s oil production … gas resources, it said.

No China war – cooperation
Friedberg 5, Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs and Director of Policy Planning in the Office of the Vice President, International Security, Vol. 30, No. 2 (Fall 2005), pp. 7–45

Fortunately, a number … domestic political reforms.

No escalation – US wins decisively  
AP, 3/9/’11
(“China challenges U.S. edge in Asia-Pacific”)

The U.S. Pacific … have 1,500 by then.

Disease won’t cause extinction – every virus has a weakness
Malcolm Gladwell, writer for The New Yorker and best-selling author The New Republic, July 17 and 24, 1995, excerpted in Epidemics: Opposing Viewpoints, 1999, p. 31-32

Every infectious agent … microscopic life forms.

Eurozone collapse now
Leo McKinstry, Express, staff writer, 9/15/11, IF IT WASN’T FOR THE EU, EUROPE WOULD BE DOING JUST FINE, http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/271322/If-it-wasn-t-for-the-EU-Europe-would-be-doing-just-fine/

THE eurozone increasingly … an economic one.  

Europe can’t solve global problems
Bacevich, 10
Andrew, Bacevich, Boston University IR and History Professor, March/April 2010, Let Europe Be Europe,"http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/22/let_europe_be_europe?page=full, 2/28]

Europe, however, is another … out of mischief.

High oil prices key to the Russian economy
Andrew E. Kramer 11, New York Times, “Russia Cashes In on Oil Supply Anxiety”, March 8, http://www.cnbc.com/id/41963140/Russia_Cashes_In_on_Oil_Supply_Anxiety

Whatever the eventual … of social unrest.

Global nuclear conflict
David, Prof Poli Sci – Johns Hopkins University, ‘99
(Steven, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb)

AT NO TIME since … a Russian civil war.

Sustained high oil prices are key to investment in renewable energy
Amy Lee 11, blogger at the Huffington Post, “Venture Firms Hope High Oil Prices Will Spur Cleantech Interest”, March 10, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/10/oil-prices-renewable-energy_n_833975.html

It takes a … of oil dependence. 

Renewables solve nuclear war
Leeb, president of Leeb Capital Management, 4
(Stephen and Donna, The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself and Profit from the Coming Oil Crisis, pg 205)

Those words resonated … weapons-grade plutonium. 

No risk of pandemics – new advances
Economist, 11/22/’10
(http://www.economist.com/node/17493456)

Fortunately, globalisation will … thing of the past.

2NC AT: NATO ADD-ON

Europe will inevitably fade – no impact when it does
Walt 11 (Stephen, Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University., 8/18, “The coming erosion of the European Union”, http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/18/the_coming_erosion_of_the_european_union)

I began with … the tides of history. 

Structural European budgets make collapse inevitable – new interventions make failure happen faster  
Walt 6-13, professor of international relations at Harvard University, (Stephen, "Gates to NATO: Drop dead?" 2011, walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/06/13/gates_to_nato_drop_dead) 

 Outgoing SecDef Robert … forces at work.

2NC AT: TERROR ADD-ON

AQ can spin around Arab Spring – no internal link
Bloom 7/7/11
http://live.washingtonpost.com/al-qaeda.html
 Dr. Richard Bloom
Professor Richard Bloom has worked for the United States Government as an intelligence operations manager, intelligence analyst, psychological operations planner, special planner, politico-military planner, and military clinical psychologist. He is a (1) Past-President of the Military Psychology Division of the American Psychological Association; (2) Fellow of the Society of Air Force Clinical Psychologists, the American Academy of Clinical Psychology, the Society of Personality Assessment, and the Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society; (3) Chair of the Aviation Security and Emergency Management Committee, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council; (4) Founder of the International Bulletin of Political Psychology; (5) Contributing Editor to PsycCRITIQUES;(6) Past-Member of the Governor of Arizona's Homeland Security Coordinating Council; (7) Diplomate of the American Board of Professional Psychology; and (8) Member of the Association for Intelligence Officers. He carries out and reviews applied research, carries out policy analysis, and provides consultation services on aviation intelligence and security systems; profiling; aviation security threat, vulnerability, and risk assessment; terrorism, antiterrorism, and counterterrorism; intelligence collection and analysis, covert action, and counterintelligence; personnel security; and the psychology of information warfare. He currently is working on critiques of post-modernism and post-structuralism in the contexts of psychological assessment and interpretation and of historical, biographical and autobiographical narrative. 

Arab Spring and Al Qaeda
What do you … terrorism in general.

Move to Pakistan solves
Lister, covered international news for 25 years, writes for CNN’s Security Clearance blog, 9/12/’11
(Tim, http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/12/al-qaeda-2-0-what-the-next-10-years-will-bring/)

But al Qaeda central … station in the city.

2NC CANADA CP

Canada solves democracy aid
Smillie, 4
(Ottowa-based political consultant and writer, “Hubris, Humility, and Human Resources: Thoughts on a Proposed Canadian Peace Corps”, October http://www.ccic.ca/e/docs/002_cda_corps_hubrishumility_final.pdf )
Theoretical difficulties notwithstanding, … based in Ottawa. 

Canada uniquely qualified for governance aid
Canada News Center, 8/9/11
http://news.gc.ca/web/article-eng.do?nid=615409

Canada is one of … respect and gratitude.”

Canada well-qualified to assist building African states
CCAfrica, 2004
(Brief #1, “Canada & Africa Matching Reputation With Action in the 21st Century”, Canadian Council on Africa, September, http://www.ccafrica.ca/publications/Briefing%20Notes%201.pdf)
Since the 1960s … the 21st Century. 

Canada’s position in foreign affairs solves best-no legacy of colonialism
Ajambe, 7
(Scholar at McGill University, researching Canada’s relations with Africa,  “Canada in Sub-Saharan Africa”, March 23, http://www.sauvescholars.org/main.cfm?p=510&l=en&id=32)

A number of reasons … to reduce poverty. 

2NC STABILITY ADV

The plan undermines TNC legitimacy and prevents a transition – Libyans are suspicious of US democracy aid and anti-Western factions will feed off unpopularity of aid to stifle democratization – that’s Latcher. 

Causes armed groups to separate from the TNC – ensures civil war and breaks any unity government
Bennis 8-23, fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, (Phyllis, "Gaddafi's Whereabouts Unknown  But Is It Too Soon to Declare Victory in Libya?" 2011, http://www.fpif.org/blog/gaddafis_whereabouts_unknown_-_but_is_it_too_soon_to_declare_victory_in_libya) 

The circumstances are … it can be both.

Western connections destroy TNC legitimacy
Reuters 11 (3/31, “ANALYSIS-Western help may test Libyan rebels' credibility”, http://af.reuters.com/article/libyaNews/idAFLDE72T18N20110331?sp=true)

Gaddafi lost no … than protecting civilians. 

Link turns outweigh solvency – Western intervention has no chance of success
Bowen 7-8, columnist for Al-Majalla, a current affairs magazine, published weekly in both English and Arabic in London since 1980, (Andrew, "Breaking the Pottery Barn Rule," 2011, www.al-majalla.com/en/geopolitics/article468169.ece)

With the tide … on a budget.

Empirics are conclusive – tons of war in the region and zero escalation – that’s Drum. Prefer empirical ev 

a) Best prediction model
Fettweis, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College, ‘7
(Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98) 

Firstly, and perhaps … not likely to be either.

b) Best Middle East methodology
Luttwak, senior associate – CSIS, professor – Georgetown and Berkeley, 5/26/’7
(Edward, “The middle of nowhere,” Prospect Magazine)

Why are middle … conflict in Darfur.

Regional cooperation solves
Hadar, foreign policy studies – Cato, 7/1/’11
(Leon, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=13259)

To some extent, the … Middle East and Central Asia.

2NC HEG ADV

The plan’s signal doesn’t solve
Rugh, Professor of Public Diplomacy – Tufts University, ‘9
(William, “Repairing American public diplomacy,” Arab Media & Society, Issue 7, Winter) 

Public diplomacy is … 24/7 information proliferation. 

Bahrain will decimate credibility in the region
Richter, 11
(Reuters Columnist, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/09/bahrain-protests-news_n_859393.html)

The fate of Bahrain's … Bahrain reflect hypocrisy.

Outweighs the image of the plan
POMED, 11
(6/29 http://pomed.org/tensions-in-the-persian-gulf-after-the-arab-uprisings-implications-for-u-s-policy/)

As the Arab Spring … a national dialogue.

Isreal’s the only issue that matters
IPS 7-15, Interpress Service, (“US Standing Plunges Across Arab World,” 2011, http://original.antiwar.com/lobe/2011/07/14/us-standing-plunges-across-arab-world%C2%A0/)

The United States’ … Arab- Israeli conflict," he added. 

Polls prove
Zogby 7-15, Founder and President of the Arab American Institute, (James, "Diminishing goodwill for U.S. Middle East policy," 2011, mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/15/diminishing_goodwill_for_US_Middle_East_policy?wpisrc=obinsite) 

A few months … lower than Iran!

Palestinian statehood veto overwhelms the aff
Gerstein, 9/16
Josh Gerstein, Politico, staff writer, 9/16/11, Obama's Palestine problem, http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=4B512899-5B26-444E-8492-2484D0ED35A3

As President Obama struggles … at the U.N.

Undermines the credibility of any Arab Spring strategy
Fox News, 9/16
Fox News, staff writer, 9/16/11, Abbas Paints U.S. Into a Corner With Palestinian Statehood Demand at U.N., http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/09/16/abbas-paints-us-into-corner-with-palestinian-statehood-demand-at-un/

Palestinian President Mahmoud … can possibly get."

Determines regional perception of US power
Duss, 9/7
Matthew Duss, Policy Analyst at the Center for American Progress, Middle East Progress Director, 9/7/11, The Arab Spring and Palestine, http://www.neareastquarterly.com/index.php/2011/09/07/the-arab-spring-and-palestine/

This is simply a … a changing Middle East.

Alliances ensure hegemony
Kaplan, senior fellow – Center for a New American Security, and Kaplan, frmr. vice chairman – National Intelligence Council, ‘11
(Robert D and Stephen S, “America Primed,” The National Interest, March/April)

AMERICA’S MACROSTRATEGIC environment … enjoy nothing comparable.

Aging crisis
Haas, 07 Assistant Professor of Political Science at Duquesne University (Mark L. “A Geriatric Peace? The Future of U.S. Power in a World of Aging Populations” International Security, Vol. 32, No. 1, Summer, p 112-147 (EBSCO)) 

Global population aging … an outcome unlikely.6 

No influence and can’t intervene
Conry, 97 - Foreign Policy Analyst @ Cato (Barbara, http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-267.html)

Other proponents of … in Somalia and Bosnia. [59]

2NC OIL ADV

History proves – it’ll take at least 3 years for oil to recover
Jaffe, 11
[ Amy Myers Jaffe is director of the Baker Institute Energy Forum at Rice University and co-author of Oil, Dollars, Debt, and Crises: The Global Curse of Black Gold.  SEPT/OCT 2011 “ The Americas, Not the Middle East, Will Be the World Capital of Energy,”]

 The revolution-swept … Hussein came to power. 

Production can never recover – fields are destroyed
Michael Lynch 8-29, oil and gas consultant, https://www.gplus.com/crude%20oil/insight/libyan-crude-oil-production-recovery-will-be

Recently, months of … oil prices again.

The aff can’t solve—its intractable
Soros, 11
George F'n Soros, October 2011, Does the Euro Have a Future?, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2011/oct/13/does-euro-have-future/

Unfortunately the euro … to buy time.

Europe economic collapse now
Sanati, 11
Cyrus Sanati, Fortune staff writer, 9/13/11, What happens after a Greek default, http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/09/13/what-happens-after-a-greek-default/

A Greek default … analysis by Citigroup.

And, oil revenues prevent a debt crisis
Maria Levitov and Henry Meyer 11, Bloomberg, “Russia May Face Debt Crisis Like Greece”, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-23/russia-may-face-debt-crisis-like-greece-by-2030-world-bank-says.html

Russia may face a … for how long?”

Laundry list of indicators
VOA 11 (“Russia Gets Giant Boost from Rising Oil Prices” 3/18/11 http://www.voanews.com/english/news/economy-and-business/Russia-Gets-Giant-Boost-from-Rising-Oil-Prices-118258659.html)

In today’s energy … the next 20 years.

Chemical weapons are secured
AFP 8-24, (“Libya's WMD Stockpiles Are Secure: Pentagon,” http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=7471639&c=POL&s=TOP&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter) 

WASHINGTON - The Pentagon … destroyed, according to the OPCW.

Apocalyptic environmental predictions are empirically wrong
Ronald Bailey, adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, May 2k,http://reason.com/0005/fe.rb.earth.shtml

Earth Day 1970 … for rational analysis.

1NR POLITICS

Turns credibility + leadership
Dreier 11
Rep. Chairman of the House Rules Committee (Rep. David Dreier, 1/5/11, Politico, “Bipartisanship can revive economy,” http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0111/47044.html)

There are no higher
leadership through trade.

Destroys soft power
Doug Bandow 10 is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute "South Korea Free Trade Agreement Key to Prosperity and Security" Oct 19 2010 www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12488

Expanding trade ties
people to trade.

Key to US econ, which solves EU recovery
Klingner, Senior Research Fellow for Northeast Asia – Asian Studies Center @ Heritage, and Markheim, senior trade policy analyst, 6/15/’9
(Bruce and Daniella, http://heritage.org/Research/Reports/2009/06/KORUS-FTA-Strengthens-the-US-Economy-and-Alliance-with-Korea)

Continuing to ignore
of the agreement.[3]

Trade solves their impacts
Griswold 5
– director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute (Daniel, “Peace on earth? Try free trade among men,” 12-29-2005, http://www.freetrade.org/node/282)  JMP

Buried beneath the
own peace dividend.

It will—they are following the US
Swire, 9/6
(Columnist-Tax-News.com, http://www.tax-news.com/news/Tentative_Agreement_On_KORUS_FTA_In_Seoul_____51272.html)

While not resolving
progress in the US.

Politics tests a key opportunity cost
Saideman, associate professor of political science - McGill University, 7/25/’11
(Steve, “Key Constraint on Policy Relevance,” http://duckofminerva.blogspot.com/2011/07/key-constraint-on-policy-relevance.html)

Dan Drezner has
never happens.

Amendments don’t have enough votes
Needham, 9/14
(Hill Columnist, http://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/181677-boeing-stays-out-of-fray-over-gops-nlrb-bill)

Although there might
both Senate leaders.

Libya unpopular
Boston Globe, 8/23/’11
(“Congress could resist additional aid to Libya”)

Foreign policy experts
debate over aid.

Still links – backlash based on misperceptions
Wetter, program manager – Population Institute, 8/17/’11
(Jennie, “Foreign Aid: The Most Vulnerable One Percent,” http://blog.populationinstitute.org/2011/08/17/foreign-aid-the-most-vulnerable-one-percent/)

One of the most
U.S. interests abroad.

Causes amendments and riders  destroy the plan’s signal
Rogin, national security writer - Foreign Policy, 7/22/’11
(Josh, “Berman: Marathon foreign policy markup was a “series of tantrums”,” http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/22/berman_marathon_foreign_policy_markup_was_a_series_of_tantrums#.Ti1WGo73TYI.email)

Berman said that
do more difficult." 

The GOP will backlash – PC’s key
Garza, 9/4
(Former Ambassador to Mexico, http://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/commentary/article/Time-to-act-on-free-trade-agreements-2153301.php

The long-pending
have invariably required.

Dickinson concludes neg
Dickinson 9 (Matthew, professor of political science at Middlebury College. He taught previously at Harvard University, where he also received his Ph.D., working under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, We All Want a Revolution: Neustadt, New Institutionalism, and the Future of Presidency Research, Presidential Studies Quarterly 39 no4 736-70 D 2009)

Small wonder, then
come to a vote (Beckmann 2008, n.d.).    

Political capital is finite and drives decisionmaking
Schier 9, Professor of Poliitcal Science at Carleton, (Steven, "Understanding the Obama Presidency," The Forum: Vol. 7: Iss. 1, Berkely Electronic Press, http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol7/iss1/art10) 

 In additional to formal
impose his preferences. 

Obama can’t get momentum on foreign policy wins
Dickinson, professor of political science – Middlebury, 2/10/’11
(Matthew, “Egypt, Iraq and the Limits of Presidential Power,” http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2011/02/10/egypt-iraq-and-the-limits-of-presidential-power/)

My point is not
might wish to be.

Obama thinks that pol cap is finite – he’ll back off controversial issues even if he’s winning
Kuttner, co-editor of The American Prospect and a senior fellow at Demos, author of "Obama's Challenge: America's Economic Crisis and the Power of a Transformative Presidency, 4/28/’9
(Robert, “Obama Has Amassed Enormous Political Capital, But He Doesn't Know What to Do with It,” http://www.alternet.org/economy/138641/obama_has_amassed_enormous_political_capital,_but_he_doesn%27t_know_what_to_do_with_it/?page=entire)

We got a small taste
politics of accommodation.

Wins only build long-term capital
Purdum 10, Columnist for Vanity Fair, (Todd, “Obama Is Suffering Because of His Achievements, Not Despite Them,” 12-20 www.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2010/12/obama-is-suffering-because-of-his-achievements-not-despite-them.html) 

 With this weekend’s
Obama knows that, too.

Trade is first-it’s a top Obama priority and the debate begins Monday
Ryan, 9/16
http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/182045-cloture-vote-scheduled-on-trade-adjustment-assistance-

The Senate is set
made it a top priority.

Reid confirms
Ryan, 9/16
http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/182005-reid-says-senate-to-take-up-trade-adjustment-assistance-next-week

Reid says Senate
early as Monday.

Solyndra’s linked to Republicans and Bush
Politico 9-14
(“Dems try to counterattack on Solyndra”, September 14, 2011, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63484_Page3.html_TJ

But Democrats have
such dire straits.” 

Our relations ev is newer – failure collapses the alliance
Cooper, Specialist, International Trade and Finance – CRS, 3/1/’11
(William H, “The Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Provisions and Implications,” http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/key_workplace/813/)

In contrast, while
than economic, relations.

CUFTA is key to containing Venezuela and stabilize Latin America
Noriega, former senior State Department official, visiting fellow – AEI, January ’11
(Roger, “Latin American Action Agenda for the New Congress,” http://www.aei.org/outlook/101014)

Congressional inquiry will
other regional neighbors.

Escalates to global nuclear war
Manwaring, 5
(Max G., Retired U.S. Army colonel and an Adjunct Professor of International Politics at Dickinson College, venezuela’s hugo chávez, bolivarian socialism, and asymmetric warfare, October 2005, pg. PUB628.pdf)

President Chávez also
peace, and prosperity.65

1NC T

[A] Interpretation:
“Democracy Assistance” must include transfer of resources – grants or loans
Burnell, professor of politics and international studies at Warwick, 2000
(Peter, Democracy Assistance: International co-operation for democratization, pg. 5
When defining democracy … somewhat arbitrary judgments.
 

1. Precision: Education and meaningful discussion require our definition. They are “democracy support.”
   Lappin, University of Leuven (Belgium) Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies
   PhD candidate, 2010
   [Richard, participant in democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, and Carter Center, University of Belgrade political sciences visiting scholar, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Volume 4 Issue 1, ―What we talk about when we talk about democracy assistance: the problem of definition in post-conflict approaches to democratization‖ http://soc.kuleuven.be/iieb/docs/2010/CEJISS-lappin.pdf]
   By the end of … and political parties.

1NC EU CP

The European Union should initiate an institutional dialogue between the government of Bahrain and the opposition, where it endorses, as a starting point for reform, the agenda presented by the crown prince and accepted by Al-Wifaq, and the European Union should provide support for human rights protections for the opposition.

NGOs reject the plan – only the EU solves
Kausch 10 (Assessing Democracy Assistance: Egypt Kristina Kausch Researcher at FRIDE Project Report: Assessing Democracy Assistance May 2010 www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Egypt_ENG_jul10.pdf) TBC 6/23/11

Often, impact potential … and its agenda.

1NC Politics

FTAs will pass now, but Obama must use capital to get the GOP on board-crucial to restore credibility in Asian regional trade
Palmer, 9/2
(Reuters Columnist, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902)

This month business … the trade pacts.

Democracy assistance drains political capital
McLaughlin, contributing writer – The Washington Diplomat, 5/31/’11
(Seth, “Key Foreign Policy Players Try to Master Capitol Hill,” The Washington Diplomat)

But it's not just … trimmed by $39 million.

Key to global trade networks
Cooper, Specialist, International Trade and Finance – CRS, 3/1/’11
(William H, “The Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Provisions and Implications,” http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/key_workplace/813/)

Since the early 2000s, U.S. … major trading partners.

Solves U.S.-China trade war
Bergsten, Director – Institute for International Economics, 9/6/’5
(Fred, “A New Strategy for APEC,” http://www.pecc.org/ftaap/papers/PECCXVI-GM-Bergsten.pdf)

Only an FTAAP … the entire region.

Extinction
The Strait Times 6/25/’2K l/n

THE high-intensity scenario … above everything else.

1NC SAUDI DA

The plan causes a crackdown on migrant workers
Douglas, 11
(Columnist-The Gulf Online, June, http://www.thegulfonline.com/Articles.aspx?ArtID=3521)

The countries of … of migration policies.

Saudi Arabia will go all in to roll back the plan
Ahrari, 6/23
(Professor of National Security and Strategy of the Joint and Combined Warfighting School at the Armed Forces Staff College, http://www.ehsanahrari.com/2011/06/23/viewing-the-arab-awakening-from-the-saudi-perspectives/)

Posted in: Arab Awakening, Arab-Iran Rivalry, Iran, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, Middle East
The Arab awakening’s … immediately and unequivocally.

Collapses the Philippine economy
Economist, 7/21
http://www.economist.com/node/18989185

Roughly one Filipino … contract ends next year.

Philippine economic collapse destroys their marine ecosystem
Department of Finance, 5
(Revenue Integrity Protection Service-Philippines, http://www.rips.gov.ph/htm/tool/resourcefile.asp?ID=56)

The Development Challenge: Corruption … global war on terrorism.

Key to global marine ecosystmes
Adraneda, 6
(Staff Writer, http://www.underwatertimes.com/print.php?article_id=64017239105)

MANILA, The Philippines  Some 100 … Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia. 

Extinction
Craig, 3
(Law Prof-Indiana, 34 McGeorge L. Rev. 155)

Biodiversity and ecosystem … not necessarily unique.

1NC PRESSURE CP

The United States federal government should communicate to the government of Bahrain that it will substantially reduce security assistance unless Bahrain promptly releases jailed opposition leaders and makes measurable progress towards constitutional monarchy.

The counterplan is the only way to accelerate the reform process and restore US credibility
Hilterman, 9/7
(Deputy Program Director for Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68246/joost-r-hiltermann/pushing-for-reform-in-bahrain)

How Washington should … the Arab Spring.

1NC FLEET

5th fleet not key to power projection—kick out spurs a shift to sea-basing that solves better
Koplovsky, 6
(PhD-Naval War College, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA463412&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)

CONCLUSION
Despite adamant arguments … challenges in the region.

Empirics prove
Jones, 11
(Prof-History-Rutgers, 6/10, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-based-us-fifth-fleet/240243/1/)

The massive American … good place to start.

Economic incentives ensure regional actors will protect the Gulf
Jones, 11
(Prof-History-Rutgers, 6/10, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-based-us-fifth-fleet/240243/1/)

Aside from enabling … through the U.S. economy.

No risk of base kick-out
Bryan, 11
(Politico Columnist, 4/11, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0411/52885.html)

These concerns, however, … against the protesters.

No escalation
Fettweis, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College, ‘7
(Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98) 

Without the US … than outright warfare.

Empirics prove
Kevin Drum, Staff Writer for the Washington Monthly, 9/9/’7
(http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_09/012029.php)

Having admitted, however, that … No regional conflagration. 

Multiple barriers to Iran heg
Savyon, director – Iranian Media Project @ Middle East Media Research Institute, 7/4/’11
(A, “Iran's Defeat in the Bahrain Crisis: A Seminal Event in the Sunni-Shi'ite Conflict,” http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5424.htm#_ednref6)

Despite its image … clearly reduced circumstances.

Iran isn’t a threat
Luttwak, senior associate – CSIS, professor – Georgetown and Berkeley, 5/26/’7
(Edward, “The middle of nowhere,” Prospect Magazine)

Now the Mussolini … to be expected.

Turkey contains Iran
Akhlaghi, senior writer – Foreign Policy Association Blogs, 9/4/’10
(Reza, “Turkish Geopolitical Ascendancy and the Iranian Decline,” http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2010/09/04/turkish-geopolitical-ascendancy-and-the-iranian-decline/)

With the global … in the region.

Cooperation solves oil conflicts
Hu, 2008
Richard Hu, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies,2008, “Promotoing China-U.S. Energy Cooperation Issues and Prospects,” http://www.keia.org/Publications/Other/HuFINAL.pdf

No doubt, China and … operates reasonably effi ciently. 

Bahrain tensions cause a unified Gulf front against Iran
Al-Ahmend, 11
(Director-Institute for Gulf Affairs, Policy Brief: The Crisis in Bahrain, May, http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/59873023?access_key=key-1c62rrj008vha0ut6sj9)
Like the crisis in … problems to fester.

1NC IRAQ ADV

Aff doesn’t solve—Iraqi shia want calls for regime change, not dialogue (the aff dialogue is based on an “approved” agenda from the Prince)
Arango, 11
Tim Arango, NY Times staff writer, 4/1/11, Shiites in Iraq Support Bahrain’s Protesters, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/02/world/middleeast/02iraq.html

But the Iraqi Shiite … and free system.”

Either Obama’s speech should have solved or the aff doesn’t solve because its even weaker than our current stated position—it supports a dialogue before pushing for the release of opposition figures from prison
Aslan Media, 11
Aslan Media, Columnist, 5/24/11, Obama's Stand on Bahrain , http://www.aslanmedia.com/component/content/article/315-the-connection/2592-obamas-stand-on-bahrain

Before the speech, pundits … the Bahraini government.

Israel won’t attack – relations with the US
Cook, senior fellow, Mid East studies – CFR, 6/9/’9
(Steven A, “Why Israel Won’t Attack Iran,” Foreign Affairs)

Given Israel's perception … the United States.

No challengers
Kaplan, senior fellow – Center for a New American Security, and Kaplan, frmr. vice chairman – National Intelligence Council, ‘11
(Robert D and Stephen S, “America Primed,” The National Interest, March/April)

But in spite of … always free of illusion.

No impact to decline
Adams, Professor U.S. Foreign Policy Program – American University, Distinguished Fellow – Stimson Center, ‘11
(Gordon, “A Leaner and Meaner Defense,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90 Iss. 1, January/February) 

Some people point … and economic development.

Heg doesn’t solve war
Mastanduno, 9 – Professor of Government at Dartmouth
(Michael, World Politics 61, No. 1, Ebsco) 

During the cold war … getting its own way.

Iraqi dissolution inevitable  
Saikal, 11-15-‘10
 Amin Saikal, professor of Political Science and Director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia) at the Australian National University, 11-15-2010, “ Iraq has a new government but don't hold your breath,” http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/41036.html

Iraq finally has a … into various entities.

Iraq air force fails
Erik Slavin, Stars and Stripes staff writer, 9/12/11, Rebuilding Iraqi air force will take time, http://www.stripes.com/news/rebuilding-iraqi-air-force-will-take-time-1.154865

During Operation Desert … centralized decision-making.

2NC PRESSURE CP

They’d obviously say yes
Bryan, 11
(Politico Columnist, 4/11, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0411/52885.html)

The Obama administration … their country’s future.

Dependence on US security relationship means they’ll say yes
Al-Ahmend, 11
(Director-Institute for Gulf Affairs, Policy Brief: The Crisis in Bahrain, May, http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/59873023?access_key=key-1c62rrj008vha0ut6sj9)

Should attempts at … real political reform.

US leverage ensures they’d say yes
Intl Crisis Group, 11
(7/28, Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iran-gulf/bahrain.aspx)

As the previous, partially … the Fifth Fleet.

2NC SAUDI DA

Fluctuating oxygen levels will independently trigger extinction
Tatchell, 8
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/13/carbonemissions.climatechange

Compared to prehistoric … global fish supplies.

Saudi will never allow reform in Bahrain—it’s a red-line issue
Al-Ahmend, 11
(Director-Institute for Gulf Affairs, Policy Brief: The Crisis in Bahrain, May, http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/59873023?access_key=key-1c62rrj008vha0ut6sj9)

This strategic purpose … its source in Manama. 

Saudi perceives moves towards Bahraini reform as threats to their regime
Smith 11,
(Reason Magazine, "Does the Unrest in Bahrain Threaten the Saudi Monarchy?" 2-15, reason.com/blog/2011/02/15/does-the-unrest-in-bahrain-thr) 

As protests roil … may no longer hold.

Bahrain determines US Saudi relations
Molavi 11,
(Middle East scholar at the New American Foundation, “The state of the Saudi-U.S. relationship,” 3-22, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/22/the-state-of-the-saudi-u-s-relationship/)

 At the bureaucratic … along sectarian lines.

Losing Saudi as a remittance source ensures India-Pakistan conflicts
Haq, 2/27
(http://www.riazhaq.com/2011/02/economic-impact-of-arab-revolt-in-south.html
President of PakAlumni Worldwide & Former Econ Prof at Rutgers)

Political fall-out from … 2011 and beyond. 

Nuclear war
Landy, National Security Expert @ Knight Ridder, 3/10/’2K
(Jonathan, Knight Ridder, lexis)

Few if any experts … the Commerce Department.

2NC FLEET ADV

Shift away from Bahrain solves best
Koplovsky, 6
(PhD-Naval War College, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA463412&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)

What if the U.S. … throughout the region.

Best military planners agree that Bahrain base impedes more effective force posture
Koplovsky, 6
(PhD-Naval War College, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA463412&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)

BASES?!? WE DON’T NEED … time to succeed.

Permanent base in Bahrain is the root cause of all their impacts—means violent base kick out inevitable
Koplovsky, 6
(PhD-Naval War College, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA463412&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)

Each of these … against U.S. forces.10

Shift to other bases solve the impact
Koplovsky, 6
(PhD-Naval War College, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA463412&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)

WEIGHING BASING OPTIONS … of Hormuz chokepoint.

Empirics are conclusive – tons of war in the region and zero escalation – that’s Drum. Prefer empirical ev 

a) Best prediction model
Fettweis, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College, ‘7
(Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98) 

Firstly, and perhaps … not likely to be either.

b) Best Middle East methodology
Luttwak, senior associate – CSIS, professor – Georgetown and Berkeley, 5/26/’7
(Edward, “The middle of nowhere,” Prospect Magazine)

Why are middle … conflict in Darfur.

No Iran-Saudi war over Bahrain – US deters Iran and they don’t see chance of success
Spinner, 3-15
Jack Spinner, Christian Science Monitor Correspondent,3-15-2011, “Why Bahrain is unlikely to turn into an Iran-Saudi battleground,” http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0315/Why-Bahrain-is-unlikely-to-turn-into-an-Iran-Saudi-battleground
 But Iran will not go so far as to engage in confrontation with the Saudi troops, says Nader Habibi, economics professor at the Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University in Waltham, Mass.

“My feeling is that … for Bahrain's monarchy.”

They’ll mess with the Saudi’s in Lebanon instead
Jayedanfar, 2011
Meir Javedanfar,  Iranian-Israeli Middle East analyst, 3-24-2011, “Iran and Saundi Arabia cold war has entered a new era,” The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/mar/24/iran-saudi-arabia-bahrain-cold-war

It is unlikely … in Lebanon's cabinet. 

Iran won’t launch a war over Bahrain
Barzegar, 2011
 Kayhan Barzegar, 4-20-2011,  Faculty Member, Department of International Relations, Science and Research University, Tehran, Iran, Former Associate, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program, 2010–2011; Former Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/international Security Program, 2007–2010,  "Iran's Interests and Values and the 'Arab Spring'"
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/20954/irans_interests_and_values_and_the_arab_spring.html
 Iran will not … in the Persian Gulf. 

Regional cooperation solves
Hadar, foreign policy studies – Cato, 7/1/’11
(Leon, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=13259)

To some extent, the … Middle East and Central Asia.

Qaddaffi’s fall, Egypt’s refusal of relations, and suppression in Bahrain are all causing Iran to lose – that’s Sayvon. 

And, brain drain
Kober, research fellow, foreign-policy studies – Cato, 1/7/’11
(Stanley, “Hit Iran in the brain,” Washington Times)

Whatever one thinks … at foreign universities.”

Prefer our evidence – most conclusive studies agree
Kaye, senior political scientists – RAND, ‘10
(Dalia Dassa, Dangerous But Not Omnipotent, Report by RAND for the Airforce and DOD, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG781.pdf)

Guided by these … in Iranian behavior.

Iran’s military was destroyed 20 years ago
Gerhsman, 2005
John Gerhsman, Middle East editor for the Foreign Policy in Focus Project, 7/26/2005,  “The U.S. and Iran: Democracy, Terrorism, and Nuclear Weapons”, Foreign Policy in Focus, http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/173
One litmus test of … less than in 1980.10

Empirically proven, no oil wars
Jaffe, 8
[ Amy Myers Jaffe is the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, “ Opportunity, not War,”  Survival | vol. 50 no. 4 | August–September 2008 | pp. 61–82 ]

We’ve heard the … will be different. 

2NC IRAQ ADV

Govrenment wont give adequate concessions
The Atlantic 6/10 2011, “Time to Disband the Bahrain-Based U.S. Fifth
Fleet,” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-based-us-fifth-fleet/240243/1/

Whatever opening there … for perennial violence.

Empirics
Dorsey, 8-13
(James M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, 8/13 2011, “What to do About Bahrain? A Headache For Both Obama and Blatter,” http://mideastposts.com/2011/08/13/what-to-do-about-bahrain-a-headache-for-both-obama-and-blatter/)

The crackdown and … the prisoner releases.

Prefer predictive evidence – even if Iraq is stabilizing now, a new wave of challenges will undermine stability
Bremmer, 11-18-‘10
Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group, 11-18-2010, “ Is Iraq's new government worth the record 8-month wait?” Foreign Policy, http://eurasia.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/11/18/is_iraqs_new_government_worth_the_record_8_month_wait

The deal struck last … in Iraqi politics.

Security forces and lack of services
Jakes, reporter – AP, 1/31/’11
(Lara, “Iraq still unstable, report says,” The Post and Courier)

The semiannual report … almost every area.

Alliances ensure hegemony
Kaplan, senior fellow – Center for a New American Security, and Kaplan, frmr. vice chairman – National Intelligence Council, ‘11
(Robert D and Stephen S, “America Primed,” The National Interest, March/April)

AMERICA’S MACROSTRATEGIC environment … enjoy nothing comparable.

Aging crisis
Haas, 07 Assistant Professor of Political Science at Duquesne University (Mark L. “A Geriatric Peace? The Future of U.S. Power in a World of Aging Populations” International Security, Vol. 32, No. 1, Summer, p 112-147 (EBSCO)) 

Global population aging … an outcome unlikely.6

1NR POLITICS

Turns credibility + leadership
Dreier 11
Rep. Chairman of the House Rules Committee (Rep. David Dreier, 1/5/11, Politico, “Bipartisanship can revive economy,” http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0111/47044.html)

There are no higher

leadership through trade.

Turns conflict de-escalation – fleets will not matter in Asian conflicts

Krepinevich, Jr. 9 (Andrew F., President of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, “The Pentagon’s Wasting Assets”, Foreign Affairs, July/August)

Senior Chinese political

if not aggression.

And turns heg – hard power decline inevitable

Doug Bandow 10 is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute "South Korea Free Trade Agreement Key to Prosperity and Security" Oct 19 2010 www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12488

Expanding trade ties

people to trade.

Trade solves their impacts

Griswold 5

– director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute (Daniel, “Peace on earth? Try free trade among men,” 12-29-2005, http://www.freetrade.org/node/282)

Buried beneath the

own peace dividend.

Cooper’s wrong – newer ev

Lee, 8/30

(Columnist-Yonhap News, http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/08/30/52/0301000000AEN20110830000400315F.HTML)

WASHINGTON, Aug. 29 (Yonhap)  A collapse in the

Asia is declining."

Causes Korean war

Feulner 10

– President of the Heritage Foundation, Ph.D. from the University of Edinburgh (Edwin, 2/4. “The Status of the U.S.-Korea Relationship in 2010.” http://www.heritage.org/Research/Lecture/The-Status-of-the-US-Korea-Relationship-in-2010)

In 2010, we can

protectionist trade practices.

Extinction
Hayes 10 Peter Hayes, *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND, Michael Hamel-Green, Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf

At worst, there

the international community.

Trade is first-it’s a top Obama priority and the debate begins Monday

Ryan, 9/16

http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/182045-cloture-vote-scheduled-on-trade-adjustment-assistance-

The Senate is set

a top priority.

Reid confirms

Ryan, 9/16

http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/182005-reid-says-senate-to-take-up-trade-adjustment-assistance-next-week

Reid says Senate

early as Monday.

Vote by the end of september

Barkley, 9/1

(Dow Jones Newswire Columnist, http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-market-news-story.aspx?storyid=201109010655dowjonesdjonline000352&title=us-business-groups-optimistic-about-trade-pacts)

Donohue said he believes

mid-October, he said.

Money frames the link debate – even if Congress likes the plan, they won’t pay for it – this is true even if the plan is reallocated

Richter, Chicago Tribune Washington bureau, 4/13/’11

(Paul, “Spending concerns sidetrack aid efforts,” http://m.spokesman.com/stories/2011/apr/13/spending-concerns-sidetrack-aid-efforts/)

WASHINGTON – The Obama administration’s

Congress, aides say.

Backlash to the plan causes amendments and riders  destroy the plan’s signal

Rogin, national security writer - Foreign Policy, 7/22/’11

(Josh, “Berman: Marathon foreign policy markup was a “series of tantrums”,” http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/22/berman_marathon_foreign_policy_markup_was_a_series_of_tantrums#.Ti1WGo73TYI.email)

Berman said that

do more difficult."

Taking money from the regional response fund links to politics

Boston Globe, 8/23/’11

(“Congress could resist additional aid to Libya”)

This year’s federal

government in Libya.

Reallocations still cause a budget fight

Stone, senior correspondent – Huffington Post, 5/18/’11

(Andrea, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/18/obama-middle-east-speech-billions-aid_n_863927.html)

The president’s speech

erasing Egypt's debt.

That destroys implementation – turns case

McInerney, Executive Director – Project on Middle East Democracy, ‘11

(Stephen, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012, DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST,” POMED, July)

These problems on the

bill by Congress.

Backlash is based on huge misperceptions

Wetter, program manager – Population Institute, 8/17/’11

(Jennie, “Foreign Aid: The Most Vulnerable One Percent,” http://blog.populationinstitute.org/2011/08/17/foreign-aid-the-most-vulnerable-one-percent/)

One of the most

U.S. interests abroad.

Proponents will only defend existing programs

Rogin, staff writer – Foreign Policy, 8/4/’11

(Josh, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/04/this_fight_aint_over?page=0,8)

Everyone agrees that

2012 presidential season.

And, it’s a perceived choice between the military and aid – the plan would lose

Kaiser Daily Global Health Policy Report, 1/5/’11

(http://globalhealth.kff.org/Daily-Reports/2011/January/05/GH-010511-Development.aspx)

Reuters examines how

activities in Iraq."

Politics tests a key opportunity cost

Saideman, associate professor of political science - McGill University, 7/25/’11

(Steve, “Key Constraint on Policy Relevance,” http://duckofminerva.blogspot.com/2011/07/key-constraint-on-policy-relevance.html)

Dan Drezner has

never happens.

Political capital is finite and drives decisionmaking

Schier 9, Professor of Poliitcal Science at Carleton, (Steven, "Understanding the Obama Presidency," The Forum: Vol. 7: Iss. 1, Berkely Electronic Press, http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol7/iss1/art10)

 In additional to formal

impose his preferences.

Dickinson concludes neg

Dickinson 9 (Matthew, professor of political science at Middlebury College. He taught previously at Harvard University, where he also received his Ph.D., working under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, We All Want a Revolution: Neustadt, New Institutionalism, and the Future of Presidency Research, Presidential Studies Quarterly 39 no4 736-70 D 2009)

Small wonder, then

come to a vote (Beckmann 2008, n.d.).   

Presidents perceive their capital as finite – our theory is true in practice

Marshall and Prins 11,  BRYAN W. MARSHALL Miami University BRANDON C. PRINS University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy  Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force  Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3 (September) 2011

We argue that

relationship with Congress.

Independently, collapse of Asian trade ensures escalating global wars

Auslin, 9

(Columnist-Weekly Standard, 2/5, http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/016/115jtnqw.asp)

AS THEY DEAL

systems in the past.

CUFTA is key to containing Venezuela and stabilize Latin America

Noriega, former senior State Department official, visiting fellow – AEI, January ’11

(Roger, “Latin American Action Agenda for the New Congress,” http://www.aei.org/outlook/101014)

Congressional inquiry will

other regional neighbors.

Escalates to global nuclear war

Manwaring, 5

(Max G., Retired U.S. Army colonel and an Adjunct Professor of International Politics at Dickinson College, venezuela’s hugo chávez, bolivarian socialism, and asymmetric warfare, October 2005, pg. PUB628.pdf)

President Chávez also

peace, and prosperity.65 

1NC TOPICALITY

[A] Interpretation: Police aid is only democracy assistance if it is specifically targeted at democracy
Thomas Carothers 2009 is vice president for studies at Carnegie, a visiting faculty member at Oxford University, Central European University, and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, AB from Harvard, M.SC London School of Economics and JD Harvard, and and has written extensively on democratic issues Critical mission: essays on democracy promotion p16

Those involved in … and other wrongdoing.

2. Precision: Casual usage undermines it
Lappin, University of Leuven (Belgium) Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies
PhD candidate, 2010
[Richard, participant in democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, and Carter Center, University of Belgrade political sciences visiting scholar, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Volume 4 Issue 1, ―What we talk about when we talk about democracy assistance: the problem of definition in post-conflict approaches to democratization‖ http://soc.kuleuven.be/iieb/docs/2010/CEJISS-lappin.pdf]
By the end of … ultimately be undermined. 

3. Limits: They open the floodgates
Richard Lappin 10 is Ph. D candidiate at Leuven Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studiesnell Medical Center. "What We Talk About When We Talk About Democracy Assistance: The Problem of Definition in Post-Conflict Approaches" CEJISS 2010 V4 Issue 1 www.cejiss.org/issue/2010-volume-4-issue-1/lappin

Problems Resulting From … can be drawn.

1NC K

Democracy assistance creates an imperial relation to the Middle East that prevents indigenous democracy
Slater, Dept of Geography – Loughborough University, ‘6
(David, “Imperial powers and democratic imaginations,” Third World Quarterly Vol. 27, No. 8)

But how do these … Latin American leader. 

Threat rhetoric mixed with democracy promotion destroys US cred in the Mid East – turns case
Vincent Boudreau, CUNY director of the Colin Powell Center for Policy Studies, 2007, "Security and Democracy: Process and Outcome in a New Policy Context," Democratization, Volume 14, Issue 2

Articles by Thomas … it is to pacify them.

Imperialism ensures extinction
Santos, LA editor and writer, 7/31/’6
(Juan, “Apocalypse No!” http://www.energybulletin.net/node/18788) 

It's simple. And … option is Armageddon.

Alternative: reject securitized democracy assistance.

Calls for external intervention strip political agency – resistance should start as a bottom-up movement
Bayat, Professor of Sociology and Middle Eastern studies – U Illinois, ‘9
(Asef, Life as politics: how ordinary people change the Middle East, p. 2-7)

Given these constraints, … for democratic reform.

1NC POLITICS

FTAs will pass now, but Obama must use capital to get the GOP on board-crucial to restore credibility in Asian regional trade
Palmer, 9/2
(Reuters Columnist, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902)

This month business … the trade pacts.

Democracy assistance drains political capital
McLaughlin, contributing writer – The Washington Diplomat, 5/31/’11
(Seth, “Key Foreign Policy Players Try to Master Capitol Hill,” The Washington Diplomat)

But it's not … by $39 million.

Key to global trade networks
Cooper, Specialist, International Trade and Finance – CRS, 3/1/’11
(William H, “The Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Provisions and Implications,” http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/key_workplace/813/)

Since the early … major trading partners.

Solves U.S.-China trade war
Bergsten, Director – Institute for International Economics, 9/6/’5
(Fred, “A New Strategy for APEC,” http://www.pecc.org/ftaap/papers/PECCXVI-GM-Bergsten.pdf)

Only an FTAAP … the entire region.

Extinction
The Strait Times 6/25/’2K l/n

THE high-intensity … above everything else.

1NC ‘ASSISTANCE’ PIC

The United States federal government should offer police training to the United Nations for Libya.

The word assistance instills a paternalistic ethos that turns the case
Minter, 2
(Sr. Fellow—Africa Action, 7/8, http://www.thenation.com/doc/20020708/booker)

The Africa trip … donor-recipient dichotomy. 

1NC CANADA CP

Canada should offer police training assistance, modeled after assistance offered under the International Criminal Investigation Training Assistance Program, to the United Nations for Libya.

Canada solves Libya-established relationships and expertise
CBC News, 9/12/11
http://www.cbc.ca/m/rich/news/politics/story/2011/09/12/pol-libya-canadians-back.html
Canadian diplomats are … law," the official said.

1NC UN ADV

Aff doesn’t solve—1AC authors specify the US needs to increase support for peacekeeping operations in Libya—not the aff

UN fails and not key to global problems—coalitions solves
Haas, 10
Richard Haas, CFR President, 1/5/2010, The Case for Messy Multilateralism, http://www.cfr.org/publication/21132/case_for_messy_multilateralism.html?breadcrumb=%2Fissue%2F42%2Fun

But to acknowledge … we are used to.

Err negative-resistance and independence from U.N. and multilateral norms is indoctrinated into U.S. policy
Cottrell 11
Patrick,  Ph.D., Political Science, University of Wisconsin, 2007 (concentrations: International Relations and American Politics) / MA, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), 1998 (subfields: International Economics and American Foreign Policy) / BA, Political Science and History, University of California-Davis, 1999
http://0-onlinelibrary.wiley.com.library.lausys.georgetown.edu/doi/10.1111/j.1743-8594.2011.00141.x/full

 Legitimacy is also … entirely or sustainably.

AIDS won’t cause extinction
Malcolm Gladwell, New York bureau chief of The Washington Post, July 17-24, 1995, The New Republic, “The Plague Year,” p. Lexis

The Andromeda Strain, in … it so relatively uninfectious.

Neither will diseases
Malcolm Gladwell, writer for The New Yorker and best-selling author The New Republic, July 17 and 24, 1995, excerpted in Epidemics: Opposing Viewpoints, 1999, p. 31-32

Every infectious agent … microscopic life forms.

China  

A. Overwhelm the plan
Wortzel, 8 - Former Director of Asian Studies at the Heritage Foundation
(Larry et al, Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Nov, p. google)

China argues that … and developing nations.

B. They won’t decrease warming
Wortzel, 8 - Former Director of Asian Studies at the Heritage Foundation
(Larry et al, Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Nov, p. google)

Despite the importance … government decision making. 

6 degree warming inevitable
AP 9 (Associated Press, Six Degree Temperature Rise by 2100 is Inevitable: UNEP, September 24, http://www.speedy-fit.co.uk/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=168)

Earth's temperature is … 20 to 25 years.

Not anthropogenic
Walter Cunningham, United States Marine Corps, National Aeronautics and Space Administration -  pilot of Apollo 7, graduate degrees from UCLA in physics and the Harvard Graduate School of Business,  member of the Advisory Board for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2010 “Global Warming: Facts versus Faith” The Heartland Institute p.7-9

 The advocates of … environmentalists used to like.

1NC STABILITY ADV

No impact – Libya’s irrelevant
Walt 8-24, professor of international relations at Harvard University, (Stephen, "Why the Libyan revolution may not matter very much," 2011, walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/23/why_the_libyan_revolution_may_not_matter_very_much

All eyes have … that in mind too.

US is better out of the way – aid becomes politicized, triggers backlash and kills the transition
Lacher 8-29, Associate, Middle East and Africa Division, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, (Wolfram, "The International Role in Post-Qadhafi Libya? Withdraw." 2011 www.mepc.org/articles-commentary/commentary/international-role-post-qadhafi-libya-withdraw) 

 Planning is ongoing … ahead to the Libyans.

Eurozone collapse now
Leo McKinstry, Express, staff writer, 9/15/11, IF IT WASN’T FOR THE EU, EUROPE WOULD BE DOING JUST FINE, http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/271322/If-it-wasn-t-for-the-EU-Europe-would-be-doing-just-fine/

THE eurozone increasingly … an economic one.  

The aff can’t solve—its intractable
Soros, 11
George F'n Soros, October 2011, Does the Euro Have a Future?, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2011/oct/13/does-euro-have-future/

Unfortunately the … to buy time.

No impact to collapse of the EU
Bacevich, 10
Andrew, Bacevich, Boston University IR and History Professor, March/April 2010, Let Europe Be Europe,"http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/22/let_europe_be_europe?page=full, 2/28]

Europe, however, is … them out of mischief.

Decline doesn’t cause war
Morris Miller, Professor of Administration @ the University of Ottawa, ‘2K
(Interdisciplinary Science Review, v 25 n4 2000 p ingenta connect)

The question may … to abort another).

Recent empirics
Barnett, senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC, contributing editor/online columnist for Esquire, 8/25/’9
(Thomas P.M, “The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis,” Aprodex, Asset Protection Index, http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules--security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx)

When the global … training local forces.

No escalation
Fettweis, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College, ‘7
(Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98) 

Without the US … than outright warfare.

Empirics
Kevin Drum, Staff Writer for the Washington Monthly, 9/9/’7
(http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_09/012029.php)

Having admitted, however, … No regional conflagration. 

Stabilizing Libya will bring down oil prices
DT, Daniel’s Training market analysis firm, 9/13/’11
(http://www.danielstrading.com/resources/news/General-Financial-News/Debt-crisis-in-euro-zone-likely-to-drive-crude-oil-futures-higher_800594714/)

"Crude markets continue … is easier said than done.

High oil prices key to the Russian economy
Andrew E. Kramer 11, New York Times, “Russia Cashes In on Oil Supply Anxiety”, March 8, http://www.cnbc.com/id/41963140/Russia_Cashes_In_on_Oil_Supply_Anxiety

Whatever the eventual … of social unrest.

Global nuclear conflict
David, Prof Poli Sci – Johns Hopkins University, ‘99
(Steven, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb)

AT NO TIME since … a Russian civil war.

Sustained high oil prices are key to investment in renewable energy
Amy Lee 11, blogger at the Huffington Post, “Venture Firms Hope High Oil Prices Will Spur Cleantech Interest”, March 10, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/10/oil-prices-renewable-energy_n_833975.html

It takes a … of oil dependence. 

Renewables solve nuclear war
Leeb, president of Leeb Capital Management, 4
(Stephen and Donna, The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself and Profit from the Coming Oil Crisis, pg 205)

Those words resonated … weapons-grade plutonium. 

High oil prices key to the ESPO pipeline
Martyn Larys 11, writer for Russia Profile, “ESPO Pipe Dreams”, June 17, http://russiaprofile.org/business/38798.html

Russia’s pro-east oil … earlier than in 2016.

Success of the ESPO is key to Sino-Russian relations
John Seaman 10, Junior Research Fellow at the Asia Centre at IFRI (Institut francais des relations internationals), “Energy Security, Transnational Pipelines and China's Role in Asia”, April, www.ifri.org/downloads/asievisions27jseaman_1.pdf

A number of … Middle Eastern suppliers.50

Extinction
Sharavin 1
Alexander Sharavin, 10-3-2001, Defense and Security
Chinese propaganda has … nuclear winter.

2NC UN ADV

Zero internal link – US assistance is only expected if Libya collapses – their author
Bendery 11,  Jennifer Bendery, former correspondent for White House and Congressional leadership at Roll Call, 8/25/11, “Obama Unlikely To Sink Money Into Rebuilding Libya, Experts Say,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/25/obama-rebuilding-
libya_n_936852.html

Danin said it … would be needed. 

Squo solves – engaging over Libya through talks
AP 9-16, (“Obama tries to look beyond Palestinian bid at UN,” http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2011/09/16/politics-us-obama-mideast_8684577.html)

The president's meetings … atrocities," Rhodes said.

Empirics prove UN fails
Polakow-Suransky, 9
Sasha Polakow-Suransky, American Prospect staff writer, 12/17/2009, Hope Against History,' http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=hope_against_history

But whether or … to fail," he concludes.

Alt cause—Security council reform
Patrick, 9
Stewart Patrick, CFR Global Governance Program Director and Senior Fellow, October 2009, "Prix Fixe and a la Carte: Avoiding False Multilateralism" http://www.twq.com/09october/docs/09oct_Patrick.pdf

Fifth, simply expanding … address the other. 

War increases disease spread and undermines health facilities
Jordan S. Kassalow, Council on Foreign Relations, May 2001, “Why Health is Important to US Foreign Policy,” http://www.milbank.org/reports/Foreignpolicy.html

A fourth way … transmission of disease.

1. Disease can’t cause extinction – it’s genetically impossible
   Richard Posner, Senior Lecturer in Law at the University of Chicago, judge on the United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit, January 1, 2005, Skeptic, “Catastrophe: the dozen most significant catastrophic risks and what we can do about them,” http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-4150331/Catastrophe-the-dozen-most-significant.html#abstract

Yet the fact … a lust time.

2. Humans can respond effectively
Wills 96 (Christopher, Professor of Biology at the University of California Yellow Fever, Black Goddess)

I am confident … in short order.

3. Extinction claims are hype – any dangerous disease can be contained by basic medical tech
Sullum, 97
(Jacob Sullum,senior editor at Reason magazine and Reason.com and a nationally syndicated columnist, “Bug Zappers”, Reason Magazine, June, http://www.reason.com/news/show/30268.html)

The public had … a great disservice."

A. Global cuts are meaningless absent China
Chandler, 8 – Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(William, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/pb57_chandler_final.pdf) 

Together, China and … global climate accord.

B. At worst, other countries outweigh
Koetzle, 8 - Ph.D. and Senior Vice President of Public Policy at the Institute for Energy Research
(William, "IER Rebuttal to Boucher White Paper", http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2008/04/13/ier-rebuttal-to-boucher-white-paper/

Take for example … have to cease.[9]

A. Coordination
Wortzel, 8 - Former Director of Asian Studies at the Heritage Foundation
(Larry et al, Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Nov, p. google)

Given that the … renders [the ministry’s] work ineffective. 125

Impossible to cut emissions – no modeling or momentum
Mead 10 (Walter Russell, senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, The Death of Global Warming, February 1, http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2010/02/01/the-death-of-global-warming/)

The global warming … actions, he says.”

2NC K

We control the root cause – desire to force external change
Ruwart, Fmr-Professor-St. Louis Medical School, ‘93
(http://www.ruwart.com/Healing/ruwart_all.html)

Ultimately, our inner …manifest our dream.

And, value to life – assistance mentality destroys agency
Escobar, Anthropology-UC Santa Cruz, ‘91
(Arturo, American Ethnologist, Vol. 18, No. 4., Nov. P.  667)

There is also … fundamentally political in nature.

Their scenario-building is wrong – threats from democracy experts are a tool to force the choice between imperialism and local movements
Elliott, School of Public Policy – University College of London, ‘9
(Cathy, “The Day Democracy Died: The Depoliticising Effects of Democratic Development,” Alternatives 34(3), p. 249 – 274)
NOTE: DFID = UK Department for International Development

So far, so … the role of politics.

Institutional bias privileges worst-case scenarios to justify US intervention
Olsen, professor of national security affairs – Naval Postgraduate School, ‘2
(Edward, U.S. National Defense for the Twenty-First Century: The Grand Exit Strategy, p. 114-115)

As Ted Galen … were not designed. 

The perm is a yes/no question – Mid East movements are easily coopted
Slavoj Žižek, international director of the Birkbeck Institute for the Humanities,10 February 2011 “For Egypt, this is the miracle of Tahrir Square” http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2011/feb/10/egypt-miracle-tahrir-square  

When President Obama … by cynical realpolitik.

Democratization to advance American credibility justifies military intervention
Andrew Gavin Marshall, Research Associate with the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG).  He is co-editor, with Michel Chossudovsky, of the recent book, “The Global Economic Crisis: The Great Depression of the XXI Century,”, February 10, 2011 “America’s Strategic Repression of the ‘Arab Awakening’” http://coto2.wordpress.com/2011/02/10/america%E2%80%99s-strategic-repression-of-the-%E2%80%98arab-awakening%E2%80%99/

Thus, “democratization” becomes …rogress in the ‘Awakening’. 

Embracing uncertainty is crucial to actualize democracy – calls to “stabilize the transition” put off change in favor of imperialist management
Anthony C. Alessandrini, Kingsborough Community College – City University of New York, 2011 “Toute décolonisation est une réussite; Les damnés de la terre and the African Spring” Journal of French and Francophone Philosophy | Revue de la philosophie française et de langue française Vol XIX, No 1, | jffp.org | DOI 10.5195/jffp.2011.474

Indeed, if anyone … best to keep up.

US key arguments ensure imperialist intervention
Rana, Asst Prof of Law – Cornell, Ph.D. Poli Sci – Harvard, ‘10
(Aziz, “American Overreach: Strategic Interests and Millennial Ambitions in the Middle East,” Geopolitics 15, p. 210 – 238)

It also underscored … for territorial reach.

Rejecting the aff is key – less US involvement = more indigenous success
Andrew Gavin Marshall, Research Associate with the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG).  He is co-editor, with Michel Chossudovsky, of the recent book, “The Global Economic Crisis: The Great Depression of the XXI Century,”, February 10, 2011 “America’s Strategic Repression of the ‘Arab Awakening’” http://coto2.wordpress.com/2011/02/10/america%E2%80%99s-strategic-repression-of-the-%E2%80%98arab-awakening%E2%80%99/

If the revolution … in this part.

Bottom-up movements solve better
Zunes, professor of politics and chair, Middle Eastern studies – University of San Francisco, 1/21/’11
(Stephen, “The United States and the Prospects for Democracy in Islamic Countries,” Foreign Policy in Focus, http://www.fpif.org/articles/the_united_states_and_the_prospects_for_democracy_in_islamic_countries)

Indeed, at the … the people themselves.

1NR POLITICS

 Turns multilat
Daly 8
 Multilateralism and Trade Liberalization
Deirdre Daly
SAIS Review, Volume 28, Number 2, Summer-Fall 2008, pp. 31-32 (Article)
 Washington D.C. Metro Area - Board Operations Officer at International Monetary Fund - International Monetary Fund 

 Protectionist policies would
commitment to multilateralism. 

Turns warming
Erixon ‘9 (Fredrik Erixon, European Centre for International Political Economy, “Protectionism will not help solve climate change,” 12-2-2009, http://www.ecipe.org/blog/protectionism-will-not-help-solve-climate-change)

The proposition they
of falling competitiveness.

KORUS solves it
Kim, Policy Analyst – Center for International Trade and Economics @ Heritage, 6/28/’10
(Anthony, http://heritage.org/Research/Reports/2010/06/Time-to-Build-a-Clean-Energy-Future-through-the-KORUS-FTA)

“Clean energy” has
clean energy technology.

Key to US econ, which solves EU recovery
Klingner, Senior Research Fellow for Northeast Asia – Asian Studies Center @ Heritage, and Markheim, senior trade policy analyst, 6/15/’9
(Bruce and Daniella, http://heritage.org/Research/Reports/2009/06/KORUS-FTA-Strengthens-the-US-Economy-and-Alliance-with-Korea)

Continuing to ignore
force of the agreement.[3]

Trade solves war
Griswold 5
– director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute (Daniel, “Peace on earth? Try free trade among men,” 12-29-2005, http://www.freetrade.org/node/282)  JMP

Buried beneath the
own peace dividend.

Vote count
Reuters, 9/8
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/08/us-obama-jobs-trade-idUSTRE7872GU20110908

(Reuters) - House of Representatives
no longer an issue.

passage is inevitable if TAA passes
Cowan, writer for Reuters, 9/16/2011
[Richard, http://www.wtvr.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-usa-trade-congresstre78f35x-20110916,0,4367853.story]

The Senate aims
by boosting exports.

Their evidence is a snapshot—momentum ensures passage
Martin, 9/7
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-07/house-votes-to-renew-tariff-preferences-for-developing-nations.html
Stalled free-trade agreements
do the trade bills.”

Support from the Ways & Means Committee makes passage likely
NYT, 8/26
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/26/us/politics/26trade.html?_r=1

“Our goal could not
earlier this summer.

Only way the plan passes
Paul C. Light  2k it the vice president and director of the governmental studies program at the Brookings Institution and is the author of The President's Agenda: Domestic Policy Choice from Kennedy to Clinton. He currently teaches as an adjunct professor of politics at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, (PRESIDENTIAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, March, p. 209) (PDBF1276)

None of the revisionists
rate of congressional initiatives."

And takes out solvency
Thomas Carothers, Carnegie Endowment VP for Studies, Democracy and Rule of Law Program and Carnegie Europe Director, October 2009, "Revitalizing Democracy Assistance: The Challenge of USAID," http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=24047

Remedying these shortcomings
global fortunes now pose. 

Debate starts tomorrow – Obama political capital ensures passage
Reuters 9/16 ("U.S. Senate aims to begin debating worker aid bill," www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/16/usa-trade-congress-idUSW1E7JU00020110916)

 WASHINGTON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The Senate aims
by boosting exports.

Reid confirms
Ryan, 9/16
http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/182005-reid-says-senate-to-take-up-trade-adjustment-assistance-next-week

Reid says Senate
early as Monday.

Obama doesn’t have political capital for anything else – he’s fully invested
Garza, 9/4
(Former Ambassador to Mexico, http://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/commentary/article/Time-to-act-on-free-trade-agreements-2153301.php
The long-pending free
have invariably required.

Korea will pass if we do
Korea Herald 9-18,  Parties to clash over U.S. FTA again 

The Daily Astorian cited
end of the year. 

Link makes the threat to defund more credible – destroys the UN
Patrick, 9/2
Stewart Patrick, CFR Senior Fellow, 9/2/11, The GOP's Misguided Campaign Against the United Nations, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/09/the-gops-misguided-campaign-against-the-united-nations/244495/

For a case study
way to go about it.

Also kills UN warming programs
UNDP Watch, staff writer, 8/29/11, House Republicans Seek to Remove U.S. Funding for UN Climate Efforts , http://undpwatch.blogspot.com/2011/08/house-republicans-seek-to-remove-us.html

House Republicans are applying
binding emissions limits.

SKFTA net boosts trade – no alternative to bilateralism and spurs multilateralism
Bergsten, 7
[Fred, American economist, author, and political adviser. He has served as Assistant Secretary for International Affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department and has been director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, formerly the Institute for International Economics, since its foundation in 1981. In addition to his academic work he makes his opinions known to the policy making community and engages with the public with television appearances[1] writing for influential periodicals such as Foreign Affairs magazine[2] and by writing books, 4/7 http://web.archive.org/web/20070601163452/http://blogs.ft.com/wolfforum/2007/04/a_koreanamerica.html]

Martin Wolf’s criticism
global free trade. 

Bhagwati’s wrong – bilateral talks are the only way to build trade
Delta Farm Press 6
(Hembree Brandon, 4/20, “Brandon: Ding-dong, is Doha dead?”, http://deltafarmpress.com/news/060420-brandon-column/)

While many of the
to the United States.

Politics tests a key opportunity cost
Saideman, associate professor of political science - McGill University, 7/25/’11
(Steve, “Key Constraint on Policy Relevance,” http://duckofminerva.blogspot.com/2011/07/key-constraint-on-policy-relevance.html)

Dan Drezner has
it never happens.

He concludes neg
Dickinson 9 (Matthew, professor of political science at Middlebury College. He taught previously at Harvard University, where he also received his Ph.D., working under the supervision of presidential scholar Richard Neustadt, We All Want a Revolution: Neustadt, New Institutionalism, and the Future of Presidency Research, Presidential Studies Quarterly 39 no4 736-70 D 2009)

Small wonder, then
come to a vote (Beckmann 2008, n.d.).    

Political capital is finite and drives decisionmaking
Schier 9, Professor of Poliitcal Science at Carleton, (Steven, "Understanding the Obama Presidency," The Forum: Vol. 7: Iss. 1, Berkely Electronic Press, http://www.bepress.com/forum/vol7/iss1/art10) 

 In additional to formal
impose his preferences. 

Lee and Kim suck – no impact to asymmetry, no data support their claims  
Snyder 12-23, Director of the Center for U.S.-Korea Policy at The Asia Foundation and Adjunct Senior Fellow for Korean Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (Scott, “Economic Interdependence, Alliance Cooperation, and Sino-U.S. Complex Interdependence,” East Asia Institute Briefing, 2010, http://www.eai.or.kr/data/bbs/eng_report/2010122410381337.pdf)
Responding to  Dong Sun Lee and Sung Eun Kim

 China’s rising economic
the initiating state (Kahler and Kastner 2006, 523-541).

Their author concedes a huge short-term backlash that kills the alliance
Kim 10
(Sung Eun Kim, Research Fellow at the Asiatic Research Institute and MA in Poli Sci from Korea University, 2010.  “Ties That Bind: Assessing the Impact of Economic Interdependence on East Asian Alliances,” http://www.eai.or.kr/data/bbs/eng_report/201002251819214.pdf)

Our findings, however
the public’s perception.

Sunk costs solve high expectations
Snyder 12-23, Director of the Center for U.S.-Korea Policy at The Asia Foundation and Adjunct Senior Fellow for Korean Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (Scott, “Economic Interdependence, Alliance Cooperation, and Sino-U.S. Complex Interdependence,” East Asia Institute Briefing, 2010, http://www.eai.or.kr/data/bbs/eng_report/2010122410381337.pdf)
The Authors = Dong Sun Lee and Sung Eun Kim

The authors argue
efficacy of alliance ties.  

We have a better internal link to Korean War
Lee, 8/30
(Columnist-Yonhap News, http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/08/30/52/0301000000AEN20110830000400315F.HTML)
WASHINGTON, Aug. 29 (Yonhap)  A collapse in the
Asia is declining."
 

\\

COUNTERPLAN CITES

The United States federal government should encourage Saudi Arabia and Jordan to substantially increase their support for civil law training programs in Yemen.

Only the CP solves-this is what their author advocates
Knoetgne, 11
(Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”, 5/16)
http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil

To create an effective … further AQAP’s cause.

We solve their internal links-Saudi’s will share intelligence with the US
Knoetgne, 11
(Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”, 5/16)
http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil

While efforts to … operations and ambitions.

Anti-americanism is not a solvency deficit-their author concedes they can’t solve and it’s possible to still build coop
Knoetgne, 11
(Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, “Chaos and Terrorism: How to Fight al-Qaeda in Yemen Amid Political Turmoil”, 5/16)
http://www.cejiss.org/columns/chaos-and-terrorism-how-fight-al-qaeda-yemen-amid-political-turmoil

Other critics might … should not do.

Polls prove – 99% of Yemenis hate us – plan only triggers backlash
Turse 11, fellow at Harvard University's Radcliffe Institute, (Nick, "Is US Aid Suppressing Another Mideast Freedom Struggle?" 4-28 motherjones.com/politics/2011/04/us-aid-suppressing-yemeni-revolution) 

 After watching two … their freedom struggle.

AQAP will spin the plan that way – supercharges recruiting
Christian Science Monitor 10, ("Why Yemen's US-aided fight against Al Qaeda could backfire," April 30,  www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0430/Why-Yemen-s-US-aided-fight-against-Al-Qaeda-could-backfire/(page)/2) 

But working closely … for the government.”

Independently – bilateral relationships solves – higher quality and avoid faulty intelligence that independently turns the case – Iraq proves
Reveron 6, associate professor at the Naval War College, (Derek, "Old Allies, New Friends: Intelligence-Sharing in the War on Terror," Summer, derekreveron.com/Documents/su04-reveron.pdf)

To help manage … on foreign intelligence.15 

ASPEC

They have to specify their agent. 

They destroy in-depth debate on the topic and core ground
Spence, 4
(Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law Stanford University, http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20741/Spence-_CDDRL_10-4_draf1.pdf)
Comparing American and European approaches to …
unresolved tensions between policy goals.

Clarifying is aff conditionality – destroys ground with unlimited 2AC specification.

T – GOV TO GOV

A] Interpretation: Assistance must go to the government

“For” means in support of
Oxford Dictionary 2011
[Oxford University Press, http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/for?region=us]
for(for)
Pronunciation:/fôr, fər/
preposition
1 in support of or in favor of (a person or policy):
they voted for independence in a referendum

“Egypt” refers to the government
Dictionary.com 2011
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/egypt
E•gypt   [ee-jipt]  Show IPA
noun

1. Arab Republic of. a …
   from Cairo S to the Sudan (Upper Egypt).

[B] Violation: The plan gives assistance to universities

[C] Prefer our interpretation:

1. Limits – thousands of NGOs and other potential recipients. Each one is a potential aff.

2. Ground – internal politics is necessary and educational ground.  They make aff ground about who gets assistance not why we give it.

3. Predictability – defining “democracy assistance” alone is useless. Must read it in the context of the resolution.

[D] T is a voting issue, or the aff would read a new indisputable case every debate

COERCION

(A) Links

1. Foreign aid is government coercion and destroys liberty
   DiLorenzo, professor of economics at Loyola College, 1/6/2005
   (Thomas, “A Foreign Aid Disaster in the Making,” http://www.mises.org/fullstory.aspx?Id=1715)
   Politicians are bound to politicize this …
   always to the recipient country’s central government.

2. Spending taxes is morally equal to forced labor.
Marjorie E. Kornhauser, Professor of Law Tulane Law School, Fall 2002
Buffalo Law Review, Legitimacy and the Right of Revolution, The Role of Tax Protests and Anti-Tax Rhetoric in America, 50 Buffalo L. Rev. 819
This second view of taxation, under which …
abusing the authority granted to it by the people.

(B) Impact: 

1. Genocidal nightmares of Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union
   Browne, former Libertarian presidential candidate, 1995
   (Harry, executive director of public policy at American Liberty Foundation, editor of Liberty Magazine, financial advisor and economist, Why Government Doesn’t Work, pg 66-67)
   The reformers of the Cambodian …
   government programs that came before.

2. Moral side constraint
Petro, Wake Forest Professor in Toledo Law Review, 1974
(Sylvester, Spring, page 480)
However, one may still insist, echoing …
identified and resisted with undying spirit.

IMPERIALISM

Democracy assistance creates an imperial relation to the Middle East that prevents indigenous democracy
Slater, Dept of Geography – Loughborough University, ‘6
(David, “Imperial powers and democratic imaginations,” Third World Quarterly Vol. 27, No. 8)

But how do these varied points …
seven years than any other Latin American leader. 

Threat rhetoric mixed with democracy promotion destroys US cred in the Mid East – turns case
Vincent Boudreau, CUNY director of the Colin Powell Center for Policy Studies, 2007, "Security and Democracy: Process and Outcome in a New Policy Context," Democratization, Volume 14, Issue 2

Articles by Thomas Ambrosio and by …
demonstrate their anger than it is to pacify them.

Imperialism ensures extinction
Santos, LA editor and writer, 7/31/’6
(Juan, “Apocalypse No!” http://www.energybulletin.net/node/18788) 

It's simple. And obvious. We find …
Their other option is Armageddon.

Alternative: reject securitized democracy assistance.

Calls for external intervention strip political agency – resistance should start as a bottom-up movement
Bayat, Professor of Sociology and Middle Eastern studies – U Illinois, ‘9
(Asef, Life as politics: how ordinary people change the Middle East, p. 2-7)

Given these constraints, an alternative …
June 12, 2009) pushing for democratic reform.

You should vote no – the role of the ballot is to resist post-political administration that insists on “expert knowledge,” but embrace the revolutionary power of democracy
Slavoj Zizek, International Director @ the Birkbeck Institute for the Humanities, 2010 “Living in the End Times”

But can Europe deliver such a thing? …
but amounts to a demand for more Europe.48 

PTX

Korus will pass now – Obama is pushing
Yonhap, 9/24
(“U.S. Senate clears one hurdle to FTA with S. Korea,” Lexis)

U.S. and South Korean government officials …
trip by President Lee into consideration."

Democracy assistance drains political capital
McLaughlin, contributing writer – The Washington Diplomat, 5/31/’11
(Seth, “Key Foreign Policy Players Try to Master Capitol Hill,” The Washington Diplomat)

But it's not just politicos in Washington and …
operating expenses were trimmed by $39 million.

PC is key to passage – solves Asian regional trade
Palmer, 9/2
(Reuters Columnist, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902)

This month business groups expect …
votes in the Senate to approve the trade pacts.

Solves U.S.-China trade war
Bergsten, Director – Institute for International Economics, 9/6/’5
(Fred, “A New Strategy for APEC,” http://www.pecc.org/ftaap/papers/PECCXVI-GM-Bergsten.pdf)

Only an FTAAP can avoid a severe risk …
inevitably have huge spillover effects on the entire region.

Extinction
The Strait Times 6/25/’2K l/n

THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait …
, for China puts sovereignty above everything else.

EU CP

The European Union should:  

NGOs reject the plan – only the EU solves
Kausch 10 (Assessing Democracy Assistance: Egypt Kristina Kausch Researcher at FRIDE Project Report: Assessing Democracy Assistance May 2010 www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Egypt_ENG_jul10.pdf) TBC 6/23/11

Often, impact potential was reduced by a …
 highly critical of their donor and its agenda.

PRIVATE AID CP

Tax credits expand foreign aid and avoid corruption and bureaucracy
Werker, 7
(Professor-Harvard Business School, 10/20, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/20/opinion/20werker.html)

While foreign aid works in some …
not compete directly with American workers.

ADV 1

SCAF backlashes against US efforts to aid civil society in Egypt
Fadel, 11
(7/30, WP Columnist, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/military-stokes-xenophobia-in-egypt/2011/07/28/gIQAFnGjjI_story.html)

CAIRO — Facing mounting challenges and …
assistance, there’s a risk of being treated as suspect.

Means we lose access to the Suez Canal
Martini, 11
(Rand Associate, 8/25, Foreign Affairs, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2011/08/25/FA.html)

Yet the United States' capacity to …
that the United States can do little to change.

No risk of canal disruptions and no impact
Vicki Vaughan 11, Express News, “Suez Canal skirts unrest in Egypt”, February 4, http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/article/Suez-Canal-skirts-unrest-in-Egypt-997497.php

But economists say the jitters, while …
could step in to supply the grain.

No Dutch Disease
Victoria Dobrynskaya and, Senior Lecturer at Department of Theory of Money and Credit at the State University of Moscow,  Edouard Turkish 9, “Is Russia Sick with the Dutch Disease?”, September, http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/workpap/summaries/2009/wp2009-20.htm

Despite impressive economic growth …
contributed to economic diversification.

Growth is collapsing now
Hao Li 10, International Business Times, “Russian economy struggles, while budget deficit soars”, September 9, http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/61065/20100909/russian-economy-struggles-budget-deficit-may-become-a-problem.htm

A new paradigm so far in 2010 is the …
in 2007 exacerbated this "deficit of trust."

Alt cause – demographics
Conor Humphries 11, Reuters, “No easy fix as demographics threaten Russia growth”, February 10, http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/02/10/idINIndia-54803820110210?pageNumber=2

A gaping demographic hole will suck close …
the government to curb the flow of migrants.

Communication prevents Accidental Launch
Ford '8
Dr. Christopher A. Ford, Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Technology and Global Security at the Hudson Institute and previously served as U.S. Special Representative for Nuclear Nonproliferation, October 7, 2008, “Dilemmasof Nuclear Force “De-Alerting”” Presented to the International Peace Institute Policy Forum
http://www.hudson.org/files/documents/De-Alerting%20FINAL2%20(2).pdf

The United States and Russia have also … of impending U.S. belligerence vis-à-vis Russia.

No challengers
Kaplan, senior fellow – Center for a New American Security, and Kaplan, frmr. vice chairman – National Intelligence Council, ‘11
(Robert D and Stephen S, “America Primed,” The National Interest, March/April)

But in spite of the seemingly inevitable and … steely nerved and always free of illusion.

No impact to decline
Adams, Professor U.S. Foreign Policy Program – American University, Distinguished Fellow – Stimson Center, ‘11
(Gordon, “A Leaner and Meaner Defense,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90 Iss. 1, January/February) 

Some people point to China as a successor to … reform, and economic development.

Heg doesn’t solve war
Mastanduno, 9 – Professor of Government at Dartmouth
(Michael, World Politics 61, No. 1, Ebsco) 

During the cold war the United States dictated … no longer count on getting its own way.

Iraq instability won’t spill-over – political risks, blowback and no precedent
Cook 07 – fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
Steven A., and Ray Takeyh (fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations), Suzanne Maloney (senior fellow at Saban Center) Brookings Institution, International Herald Tribune, “Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast,” 6-28, www.iht.com/articles/2007/06/28/opinion/edtakeyh.php

It is abundantly clear that major outside …  enveloping the entire Middle East. 

African conflict won’t draw in others
Morenike Taire, April 9, 2004, Vanguard (Nigeria), Global News Wire – Asia Africa Intelligence Wire, p. Lexis

Defining our role may not have to … no longer be calm, cool and collected.

ADV 2

No solvency – their internal link is about the American university in Egypt

Cap and trade is dead
John, analyst – Gigaom, 12/27/’10
(Jeff St, http://gigaom.com/cleantech/greentech-2011-4-trends-not-to-expect/)

2. Progress on carbon controls will remain … those terms.

Means no incentive for a green tech boom
The Columbian, 10
[“ Clean tech faces muddy future Firms say federal energy policy key to long-term stability,” 8/22/10, http://www.columbian.com/news/2010/aug/22/clean-tech-faces-muddy-future-firms-say-federal-en/]

 Both the House and Senate this session … sets us back economically. It’s costing us jobs.” 

Clean tech fails – can’t be scaled up
Wirth, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus – University of New Hampshire, ‘7
(Clifford J, http://www.greatchange.org/ov-clifford,PeakOilAnalysisOctober6-2007.pdf)

Solar energy (defined here as wind, … and vehicular operations over vast areas of fragile land

China  

A. Overwhelm the plan
Wortzel, 8 - Former Director of Asian Studies at the Heritage Foundation
(Larry et al, Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Nov, p. google)

China argues that developed countries are the primary … by developed and developing nations.

6 degree warming inevitable
AP 9 (Associated Press, Six Degree Temperature Rise by 2100 is Inevitable: UNEP, September 24, http://www.speedy-fit.co.uk/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=168)

Earth's temperature is likely to jump six degrees … seas should rise about a foot every 20 to 25 years.

ADV 3

No escalation
Fettweis, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College, ‘7
(Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98) 

Without the US presence, a second argument goes… is far more likely than outright warfare.

No internal link to radicalization – ev is from 2007

Elections in November
USA Today 9/27/2011
[http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2011-09-27/egyptian-election/50568690/1]
Egypt's ruling military decreed Tuesday that the … quell disagreement over how it will be run.

That’s too soon for US policy to have an impact. The Brotherhood is too well organized—
Boston Globe 3/31/2011
[“Don’t despair just yet,” pg 16, lexis]
WHILE A QUICK election calendar adopted by …  against the constitutional amendments.

SOLVENCY

US aid to NGOs undermines civil society—the perception of being tied to the US enrages everyone in Egypt and undermines their ability to push reform
Cook, 11
(Senior Fellow-Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/09/america_shouldnt_hijack_egypts_revolution)

The perception that certain groups enjoy … Egyptians the opportunity to triumph or fail on their own.

Democracy aid can’t influence Egypt—empirical studies confirm
Peters, 11
(Assistant Professor of Government-Wesleyan, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/why_obama_shouldn_t_increase_democracy_aid_to_egypt)

The United States should promote democracy … percentage of U.S.-assisted courts with better case management.

2NC

AT: PERM – DO CP

Perm severs “its” – CP aid is funded by companies, not the gov. 

Sever an increase in assistance – it’s quantified by money
The plan has to spend money – “increasing democracy assistance” requires new resources
Bread for the World, Christian NGO, ‘11
(“What is Foreign Assistance?” http://www.bread.org/hunger/foreign-aid/)

Foreign assistance or foreign aid refers to … and support their development efforts.

AT: CP LINKS-TAX CREDITS 

Tax credits aren’t subsidies—avoids coercion
Vance, 11
(Freelance Writer & Author of The Revolution That Wasn’t, http://www.fff.org/comment/com1106s.asp)

Tax credits are not subsidies. Tax credits, like …. The result is the same. But tax credits are not subsidies.

AT: LINKS TO POLITICS

CP is popular—addresses the criticism of aid from both sides of the aisle
Werker, 8
(Prof-Harvard Business School, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/5767)

Frustration with U.S. foreign aid is …, incremental solution that should appeal to both sides of the aisle.

Changing tax policy is the key way to silence traditional opposition to government-provided aid
Werker, 8
(Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Harvard Business School, http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/110/wer091608.pdf)

A Proposal: Harnessing private development finance…the program. Application to the Western Hemisphere 

Official aid uniquely inspires opposition—leveraging private donations widely popular
Desai, 10
(Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Wolfensohn Center for Development at the Brookings Institution, and Associate Professor of International Development in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, 42 N.Y.U. J. Int'l L. & Pol. 1111, Summer)

Foreign aid delivered through official …platform that donors feel most comfortable with.

Opponents of aid view philanthropy as the best alternative
Bollen, 4
(Sociology Prof-UNC, http://www.hedprogram.org/Portals/0/RFA%20docs/SSRC%20research_design_final_version.pdf)

As the above cases of entrepreneurial philanthropy …prosperity and the policies needed to maintain it.

2NC NO SOLVENCY DEFICIT

No solvency deficit—government provided aid already operates through backdoor privatization—ground work is all done through hired contractors and NGOs
Spence, 4
(Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law Stanford University, http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20741/Spence-_CDDRL_10-4_draf1.pdf)

Moreover, the agency’s programs offered …dialog.” Unfortunately, that diplomatic support rarely came.

Prefer our arguments-government aid is a self-perpetuating enterprise with a vested interest in avoiding genuine progress in order to protect their jobs
Parajuli, 10
(Columnist-The Concord Review, 7/8, http://archives.myrepublica.com/portal/index.php?action=news_details&news_id=20776)

This brings us to another argument – that the …than government agencies of the money they invest in developing countries.

CASE 1NC

Leakage of funds from government aid kills effectiveness
Desai, 10
(Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Wolfensohn Center for Development at the Brookings Institution, and Associate Professor of International Development in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, 42 N.Y.U. J. Int'l L. & Pol. 1111, Summer)

Official aid is perceived to have low transaction …government bureaucracies is avoided.

And, government aid bureaucracy destroys innovation
Carothers, 9
(October, Carnegie Endowment VP for Studies, Democracy and Rule of Law Program and Carnegie Europe Director, "Revitalizing Democracy Assistance: The Challenge of USAID," http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=24047)

USAID’s basic operating procedures—a …to adapt easily when basic circumstances change.

Compliance conflicts make government-based democracy assistance ineffective
Natsios, 10
(Prof of Diplomacy and Government-Georgetown and former administrator of USAID, Center for Global Development, “The Clash of the Counter-bureaucracy and Development”, July)

The Counter-bureaucracy
One of the little understood, but most powerful and …—and my former professor—James Q. Wilson.

AT: EXPERTISE

1. Private organizations have unmatched knowledge of recipient countries and avoid mismanagement
   Mercer, 5
   Contributor-Antiwar.com, http://www.antiwar.com/mercer/?articleid=4344

Consequently, private charities such …pickpockets as unnecessary as they are unethical.

AT: SIGNAL/SOFT POWER

4. International private aid solves public diplomacy
Jenkins, 7
(Garry, Assistant Professor of Law, The Ohio State University Moritz College of Law, formerly served as Chief Operating Officer and General Counsel of The Goldman Sachs Foundation, where he oversaw a $ 200 million international grantmaking program; “SOFT POWER, STRATEGIC SECURITY, AND INTERNATIONAL PHILANTHROPY,” North Carolina Law Review, March, 85 N.C.L. Rev. 773)

Another important means by which international …, ultimately, a part of modern diplomacy. 79

5. Private aid is perceived
Shah ,7
(AEI Fellow, http://www.aei.org/docLib/20071212_22520DPO03Dec_g.pdf)

Philanthropy is usually considered a form of …national security is substantial, yet often unacknowledged.

IMPACT – 2NC

No value to life under coercion
Raz, Philosopher, 1986
(Joseph, The Morality of Freedom, page 307)
One way to test the thesis of the primacy of … alive can be better than that life.

Extinction is justified to protect liberty
Shue, 89 – Professor of Ethics and Public Life at Princeton University (Henry, Nuclear Deterrence and Moral Restraint, p. 64-5)
The issue raises interesting problems about obligations …as¬sume that the next generation would want only life?

Turns the case
Gause, 11
(Columnist-National Interest, 5/26, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/misdiagnosing-the-middle-east-5368?page=show)

There is a dangerous consensus about the …or not. We should leave them alone.

Violation of freedom negates the value of human existence and represents the greatest threat to human survival
Ayn Rand, Philosopher, July 1989, “The Virtue of Selfishness: A New Concept of Egoism,” p. 145
A society that robs an individual of the … in Soviet Russia or Nazi Germany.

Utilitarianism cannot be implemented – attempts only to genocide
Rothbard, Dean of Austrian School of Economics, 1998
(Murray, Ethics of Liberty http://www.mises.org/rothbard/ethics/twentysix.asp)
What’s so good about the “greatest …at any estimate for “social” utility or cost.

NO 1AC

Cause-and-effect claims require a coherent theory of human behavior – their advantages are epistemologically unacceptable or we make unending violence inevitable
Rockwell Jr., president of the Ludwig von Mises Institute, 5/19/2008
(Llewellyn, “Everything You Love You Owe to Capitalism,” http://mises.org/story/2982)
Not even an event as spectacular as the …continue to spread its malicious and destructive policies. 

2NC – NO ESCALATION

No Middle East escalation – leaders value stability and use proxy groups instead of militaries, that’s Fettweis. 

Empirics are conclusive – tons of war in the region and zero escalation
Empirics prove
Kevin Drum, Staff Writer for the Washington Monthly, 9/9/’7
(http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_09/012029.php)

Having admitted, however, that the …war for a decade. No regional conflagration. 

Empirics first

a) Best prediction model
Fettweis, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College, ‘7
(Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98) 

Firstly, and perhaps most obviously, …; post-war Iraq is not likely to be either.

b) Best Middle East methodology
Luttwak, senior associate – CSIS, professor – Georgetown and Berkeley, 5/26/’7
(Edward, “The middle of nowhere,” Prospect Magazine)

Why are middle east experts so …killed in a season of conflict in Darfur.

Regional cooperation solves
Hadar, foreign policy studies – Cato, 7/1/’11
(Leon, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=13259)

To some extent, the recognition that the United …and people of the Middle East and Central Asia.

AT: RUSSELL 09

He concludes deterence solves – this matters because he cites the aff’s article and then refutes it
Russell, senior lecturer, National Security Affairs – Naval Postgraduate School, managing editor – Strategic Insights, December ‘9
(James A, “Extended Deterrence, Security Guarantees, and Nuclear Weapons: U.S. Strategic and Policy Conundrums in the Gulf,” Strategic Studies Institute) [footnote 26 included]

The build out of the U.S. military infrastructure …protecting regimes hosting those forces.

2NC NO IMPACT

Other factors determine conflict
Ikenberry, 9 - Prof. Int’l Affairs @ Princeton (G. John et al, World Politics, Vol. 61, No. 1, p. Muse)

Two major theoretical traditions deal with … or have little to do with unipolarity.

Data proves
Geller 99—Geller and Singer, 99 – *Chair of the Department of Political Science @ Wayne State University (Daniel S and Joel David, Nations at war: a scientific study of international conflict, p. 116-117) 

Hopf (1991) and Levy (1984) examine …number of major powers in the system. 

No incentive for conflict
Preble, 10 (8/3/10 Christopher Preble, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, taught history at St. Cloud State University and Temple University, was a commissioned officer in the U.S. Navy, Ph.D. in history from Temple University. “U.S. Military Power: Preeminence for What Purpose?” 8/3/10) http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/u-s-military-power-preeminence-for-what-purpose/ 

Most in Washington still embraces the notion …security of their respective regions.

2NC – NO IMPACT

If regional powers act, they’ll try to contain conflict
Hadar, research fellow, foreign policy studies – Cato, 7/28/’10
(Leon, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12011)

In fact, the expectation for U.S. military pull-out …order to avoid a regional military conflagration.

1NR
A2 HORMUZ SHUTDOWN

And, there’s no risk of straits shutdown
Blair and Liberthal 7
Dennis and Kenneth, “Smooth Sailing: The World’s Shipping Lanes are Safe”, Foreign Affairs. Commander in Chief at PacCom, Senior Director on the National Security Council.
http://www.jstor.org/stable/20032345

 The dangers facing oil tankers carrying their …foreseeable future are remote.

Their internal link is about Iran – they’ll never close it
Saul 10
Jonathan, interviewing Iranian and American Security analysts Peter Pham and Meir Javendanfar,
http://archives.dawn.com/archives/7274

Iran is unlikely to risk blocking or mining the Strait …period after hostilities began,” it said in a study.

A2 THUMPERS

Top of the Agenda
Houston Chronicle 9/19, ("The Week Ahead: Obama’s deficit-reduction plan is DOA; trade pacts are alive," 2011, blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2011/09/the-week-ahead-obamas-deficit-reduction-plan-is-doa-trade-pacts-are-alive/) 

 Washington’s fall agenda is filling …Obama’s jobs initiative.

Debate’s going on now
Lee, 9-23
Chi-dong, Yonhap, “ (LEAD) FTA should be ratified before S. Korean leader's trip: Rep. Ros-Lehtinen” http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/09/24/52/0301000000AEN20110924000400315F.HTML
 WASHINGTON, Sept. 23 (Yonhap)  As the U.S. Congress braces for a vote on the free trade pact with South Korea, a senior Republican member at the House Friday stressed the need to pass it before President Lee Myung-bak makes a state visit next month.
The White House and the Republicans in …reaffirmation of our alliance with that key country."

A2 JOBS

Won’t drain capital
Stirewalt 9/19 (Chris, “Democrats Balk at Obama Tax Plan”, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/09/19/democrats-balk-at-obama-tax-plan/)

Obama kicked off his fall campaign swing two …2012 strategy will be a bust even before 2011 is over.

GOP won’t fight
Steinhauer 9/16 (Jennifer, “House G.O.P. Leaders Find Some Things to Like About Obama’s Jobs Plan”, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/17/us/politics/house-gop-leaders-find-some-things-to-like-about-obamas-jobs-plan.html)

WASHINGTON — House Republican …discussions, may be possible.”

Not for another month
LA Times 9/19 (“Top of the Ticket”, http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2011/09/obama-jobs-speech-right-now-dick-durbin.html)

The president was in such a hurry to get …. 8 really means sometime at least one month later. 

A2 DISASTER RELIEF

Disaster relief doesn’t drain PC
Parker, 9-16
Alex Parker, reporter @ US News World Report, 9-16-2011, “A New Post-Standoff Era Begins on Capital Hill,” US News, http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/09/16/a-new-post-standoff-era-begins-on-capitol-hill-standoffs-over-policy-are-no-longer-in-vogue-with-congress-but-quitting-them-can-be-hard
 Next week, Congress will consider, and likely … would rather just finish out the year. 

A2 SOLYNDRA

Solyndra is overblown
Lowe, 9-16
Chan Lowe, 9-16-2011, “Barack Obama and the Solyndra Scandal,” Sun Sentinel, http://blogs.trb.com/news/opinion/chanlowe/blog/2011/09/chan_lowe_barack_obama_and_the.html
Most self-respecting administrations, at …to chew on. He owes it to the country.

Solyndra’s linked to Republicans
Politico 9-14
(“Dems try to counterattack on Solyndra”, September 14, 2011, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63484_Page3.html_TJ

But Democrats have a message of their own: …had any idea they were in such dire straits.” 

A2 WINNERS WIN

Obama can’t get momentum on foreign policy wins
Dickinson, professor of political science – Middlebury, 2/10/’11
(Matthew, “Egypt, Iraq and the Limits of Presidential Power,” http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2011/02/10/egypt-iraq-and-the-limits-of-presidential-power/)

My point is not to defend Bush for acting on …
they are or that they might wish to be.

Obama thinks that pol cap is finite – he’ll back off controversial issues even if he’s winning
Kuttner, co-editor of The American Prospect and a senior fellow at Demos, author of "Obama's Challenge: America's Economic Crisis and the Power of a Transformative Presidency, 4/28/’9
(Robert, “Obama Has Amassed Enormous Political Capital, But He Doesn't Know What to Do with It,” http://www.alternet.org/economy/138641/obama_has_amassed_enormous_political_capital,_but_he_doesn%27t_know_what_to_do_with_it/?page=entire)

We got a small taste of what a more radical …
 politics of accommodation.

Wins only build long-term capital
Purdum 10, Columnist for Vanity Fair, (Todd, “Obama Is Suffering Because of His Achievements, Not Despite Them,” 12-20 www.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2010/12/obama-is-suffering-because-of-his-achievements-not-despite-them.html) 

 With this weekend’s decisive Senate repeal of the military’s “Don’t Ask, …
is a price for everything in politics, and Obama knows that, too.

Obama loses the spin game
BAKER 10. [Peter, foreign policy reporter, author of Kremlin Rising: Vladimir Putin and Russian Counter-Revolution, “Education of a President” New York Times]
…
But it is possible to win the inside game …
health care until we had lost the spin battle.” 

Impacts

Turns heg
Doug Bandow 10 is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute "South Korea Free Trade Agreement Key to Prosperity and Security" Oct 19 2010 www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12488

Expanding trade ties offers geopolitical …and least dangerous means to do so is to make it easier for its people to trade.

FTA solves clean tech
Kim, Policy Analyst – Center for International Trade and Economics @ Heritage, 6/28/’10
(Anthony, http://heritage.org/Research/Reports/2010/06/Time-to-Build-a-Clean-Energy-Future-through-the-KORUS-FTA)

“Clean energy” has become a political and … are all directly or indirectly related to clean energy technology.

2NR

None of the Arab Spring aid initiatives passed
Sheridan, 9/24
(WP Columnist, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-faces-hurdles-in-aiding-arab-spring-countries/2011/09/22/gIQAEqcOuK_story.html)

In his U.N. speech this week, President …democracies has been “piecemeal.”

New budget will cut aid
POMED, 9/26
http://pomed.org/blog/2011/09/fy2012-foreign-ops-budget-could-be-significantly-slashed.html/
FY2012 Foreign Ops Budget Could be Significantly Slashed

As the FY2012 budget looms, Congress …in Africa and throughout the developing world.”

Aspec

They have to specify their agent. 

They destroy in-depth debate on the topic and core ground
Spence, 4
(Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law Stanford University, http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20741/Spence-_CDDRL_10-4_draf1.pdf)

Comparing American and European approaches to democracy
and
unresolved tensions between policy goals.

SKFTA

KORUS will pass and Obama is pushing
Yonhap, 9/24
(“U.S. Senate clears one hurdle to FTA with S. Korea,” Lexis)

U.S. and South Korean government officials hope that
and
that they are also "deeply taking the (upcoming) trip by President Lee into consideration."

Democracy assistance drains political capital
McLaughlin, contributing writer – The Washington Diplomat, 5/31/’11
(Seth, “Key Foreign Policy Players Try to Master Capitol Hill,” The Washington Diplomat)

But it's not just politicos in Washington and anxious
and
USAID operating expenses were trimmed by $39 million.

Political capital’s key – restores credibility in Asian regional trade
Palmer, 9/2
(Reuters Columnist, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902)

This month business groups expect Obama at long last to submit
and
Senate to approve the trade pacts.

Solves U.S.-China trade war
Bergsten, Director – Institute for International Economics, 9/6/’5
(Fred, “A New Strategy for APEC,” http://www.pecc.org/ftaap/papers/PECCXVI-GM-Bergsten.pdf)

Only an FTAAP can avoid a severe risk of “drawing a line
and
will inevitably have huge spillover effects on the entire region.

Extinction
The Strait Times 6/25/’2K l/n

THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait
and
China puts sovereignty above everything else.

Saudi 

Saudi is strongly opposed to any endorsement of the Muslim Brotherhood—they view them as a threat to their regime
Strasser, 11
(5/8, http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/427433
With Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year rule finished
and
accepting than the Saudi Islamism.”

The plan causes a crackdown on migrant workers
Douglas, 11
(Columnist-The Gulf Online, June, http://www.thegulfonline.com/Articles.aspx?ArtID=3521)

The countries of the Gulf Co-operation
and
the medium-term, this could lead to a rethinking of migration policies.

Breakdown of relations spurs Saudi prolif
Lippman, 8/5
(Sr. Adjunct Scholar-Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.susris.com/2011/08/05/saudi-arabia’s-nuclear-policy-lippman/)

So let us suppose that Saudi Arabia’s currently testy
and
Saudi Arabia might emerge less secure, rather than more.

That causes global nuclear war
Edelman, 11
(Jan/Feb, Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments & Former U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran)

There is, however, at least one state that could receive
and
Great Game, with unpredictable consequences.

DA independently turns the case
Shanahan, 6/23
(Chief of Army Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy and is now a non-resident Fellow at the Institute, http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2011/06/23/Washington-Riyadh-and-the-Arab-Spring.aspx)

Equally important, the Gulf remains a vital labour
and
significant limits to American exceptionalism.

Israel

Israel fears support for the Muslim Brotherhood
Waxman, 11
(2/18, Poli Sci Prof-Baruch College, “Israel’s Demophobia”, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/18/israel_s_demophobia)
Also starkly apparent is the dire predicament that Israel
and
would be a strategic nightmare and a serious psychological blow.

Undermines Israeli security and overall relations
Byman, 11
Daniel Byman, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University and the Research Director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, Summer 2011, Israel’s Pessimistic View of the Arab Spring, http://www.twq.com/11summer/docs/11summer_Byman.pdf

Americans took heart as they watched Egyptian
and
Israeli policy, all deserve serious attention.

Disagreements collapse the alliance
MENL, 10
Middle East Newsline, “U.S. Ex-Officers Warn Of Decline In Israel Ties,” 4/4, http://israelbehindthenews.com/bin/content.cgi?ID=3945&q=1

WASHINGTON [MENL]  Scores of senior retired U.S. officers have warned of  the decline
and
denigrate  an ally such as Israel."

Even if relations don’t collapse, the perception of insecurity causes them to strike Iran
Roshandel, 11
(Security Studies Prof-East Carolina U, Iran, Israel and the United States: Regime Security vs. Political Legitimacy, P. 86

According to some within the Israeli
and
possibility of an Israeli strike may become realistic. 

Causes escalating global nuclear war
Trabanco, 9
(Frequent contributor to Global Research specializing in Military Affairs, BA-International Relations from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Studies, “The Middle Eastern Powder Keg Can Explode at Anytime,” http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11762)

In case of an Israeli and/or American attack
and
in the middle of a powder keg.

CP – proportional representation

The United States federal government should offer a substantial increase in foreign economic assistance to the Egyptian government if they agree to eliminate the district-based parliamentary elections in favor of full party-list proportional representation that doesn’t use the ‘largest remainder system.’

The US can just lock out the Brotherhood by pressuring Egypt to switch to a proportional representation model—solves
Rubin, 11
(Fellow-AEI, June 30th, http://blog.american.com/2011/06/engaging-the-muslim-brotherhood/

Certainly, the Muslim Brotherhood is a player in
and
Brotherhood minority for which true democracy is anathema.

Diplomat text

The United States federal government should support international religious freedom by broadening the authority of the religious-freedom ambassador, giving systematic training to diplomats, and establishing a religion track within the political specialties of the foreign service.

CP – carter center

Carter Center action solves the case-empirically successful at implementing democracy assistance in the Middle East and Africa
Lords, 9
(PhD Candidate-International Relations at USC, Forging Ahead: Assessing the Sustainability of the Carter Center in a Post-Carter Era, http://digitallibrary.usc.edu/assetserver/controller/item/etd-Lords-2878.pdf)

Charisma. Carter‟s personality characteristics and leadership style
and
the most listened-to voice in the world” (Brinkley, 1998:314).
 

A2BROTHERHOOD ADV

SCAF backlashes against US efforts to aid civil society in Egypt
Fadel, 11
(7/30, WP Columnist, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/military-stokes-xenophobia-in-egypt/2011/07/28/gIQAFnGjjI_story.html)

CAIRO — Facing mounting challenges and spreading
and
there’s a risk of being treated as suspect.

Means we lose access to the Suez Canal
Martini, 11
(Rand Associate, 8/25, Foreign Affairs, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2011/08/25/FA.html)

Yet the United States' capacity to advance democratization
and
that the United States can do little to change.

Collapses US leadership and causes Mideast war
Wood, 11
(Chief Military Correspondent-Politics Daily, 2/5, http://www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/)

Also suddenly at risk, along with Bright Star, is the access
and
missions mean fewer daily sorties.

Nuclear war
Barnett, Professor, Warfare Analysis and Research Dept – U.S. Naval War College, 3/7/’11
(Thomas, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads)

Events in Libya are a further reminder for Americans
and
reduction in battle deaths from state-based conflicts.

US aid to NGOs undermines civil society—the perception of being tied to the US enrages everyone in Egypt and undermines their ability to push reform
Cook, 11
(Senior Fellow-Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/09/america_shouldnt_hijack_egypts_revolution)

The perception that certain groups enjoy American largesse
and
triumph or fail on their own.

Islamists won’t take aid
Shahin, 11
(Prof-Religion, Conflict, and Peacebuilding-Notre Dame, 7/6, http://peacepolicy.nd.edu/2011/07/06/the-arab-spring-western-policy-choices/)

The newly appointed U.S. ambassador to Egypt, Anne W. Patterson, reported to Congress in June that she is dispensing $40 million for the support of democracy in Egypt and that 600 nongovernmental organizations have applied for assistance during the transitional phase. Given that Islamists refuse to receive aid from the West, U.S. support will likely go to organizations and activists who share Western liberal values. 

Elections in November
USA Today 9/27/2011
[http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2011-09-27/egyptian-election/50568690/1]
Egypt's ruling military decreed Tuesday that the country's first parliamentary elections since Hosni Mubarak's ouster will begin Nov. 28, ending months of speculation on the timing of the key vote but failing to quell disagreement over how it will be run. 

That’s too soon for US policy to have an impact. The Brotherhood is too well organized—
Boston Globe 3/31/2011
[“Don’t despair just yet,” pg 16, lexis]
WHILE A QUICK election calendar adopted by Egyptian
and
overwhelmingly against the constitutional amendments.

Too unpopular to win control
Fisher, 11
(7/26, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/07/chart-of-the-day-muslim-brotherhood-is-deeply-unpopular-in-egypt/242539/

That's right: after spending five months
and
more popular in Egypt than it is on Fox News.

Egyptian economy strong and resilient
Marks, 9/22
(Economic Analyst-Emerging Markets, http://www.emergingmarkets.org/Article/2905638/Arab-economies-resilient-during-revolts.html)

Growth rates in North Africa and the Middle East
and
one Egyptian commentator told Emerging Markets.

No escalation
Fettweis, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College, ‘7
(Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98) 

Without the US presence, a second argument goes,
and
far more likely than outright warfare.

Empirics prove
Kevin Drum, Staff Writer for the Washington Monthly, 9/9/’7
(http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2007_09/012029.php)

Having admitted, however, that the odds of a military
and
for a decade. No regional conflagration. 

Eurozone collapse now
Leo McKinstry, Express, staff writer, 9/15/11, IF IT WASN’T FOR THE EU, EUROPE WOULD BE DOING JUST FINE, http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/271322/If-it-wasn-t-for-the-EU-Europe-would-be-doing-just-fine/

THE eurozone increasingly resembles a suicide pact
and
project rather than an economic one.  


The aff can’t solve—its intractable
Soros, 11
George F'n Soros, October 2011, Does the Euro Have a Future?, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2011/oct/13/does-euro-have-future/

Unfortunately the euro crisis is more
and
been trying to buy time.
Princeton Univ. Anschutz Fellowship Applications

European war won’t escalate—the Cold War is over, dumbass
Manning, 2000
Robert A. Manning, senior fellow and director of Asian studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, 3/10/2000
We don't want to go any lower because we need these weapons
and
Russian targets, though no one will say so.

The security environment has substantially changed
NRDC, 2005,
http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/euro/euro_es.pdf
European security conditions have changed significantly
and
States in a crisis than to increase the readiness level. 

A2IRF advantage

Obama solves multilat
Sofae 10, George P. Shultz Distinguished Scholar at Sanford University’s Hoover Institution, (Abraham, "Obama: Dropping the War on Terror, preemption, preventative force - Adopting 'Multilateralism'," May 3, www.aipnews.com/talk/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=13876&posts=1&start=1

 The Gates’ Pentagon will make significant changes to the language
and
 rejected to secure such agreements.

We’ve already passed the threshold-their impacts should’ve happened.
AFP, Agence France Presse, September 15, ‘99, “Outlook Grim For World’s Environment Says UN,” http://www.rense.com/earthchanges/grimoutlook_e.htm

The United Nations warned Wednesday that the world’s environment
and
strenuous efforts will take a long time to recover.

Apocalyptic environmental predictions are empirically wrong
Ronald Bailey, adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, May 2k,http://reason.com/0005/fe.rb.earth.shtml

Earth Day 1970 provoked a torrent of apocalyptic
and
no substitute for rational analysis.

Prefer specific escalation scenarios because we outline instances when diplomacy doesn’t solve

No war – long-term stability trends
Bush, 10
[Richard C Bush III, Director, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, “China-Taiwan: Recent Economic, Political, and Military Developments Across the Strait, and Implications for the United States,” 3/18/10, Brookings, http://www.brookings.edu/testimony/2010/0318_china_economy_bush.aspx]

What is the trajectory of the current
and
reflects about PLA intentions—remains.  

History proves China won’t lashout as a result of domestic political crises
Michael G. Gallagher, Prof of International Studies, China's Illusory Threat to the South China Sea, International Security 1994

It could be argued that a short, sharp war
and
 internal unrest and the threat of foreign war.  

Round 

1nc

They have to specify their agent. 

They destroy in-depth debate on the topic and core ground
Spence, 4
(Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law Stanford University, http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20741/Spence-_CDDRL_10-4_draf1.pdf)

Comparing American and European
AND
 unresolved tensions between policy goals.

Clarifying is aff conditionality – destroys ground with unlimited 2AC specification.

1nc

A. Interpretation and violation—democracy assistance must be transfered to the topic country

For
Dictionary.com
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/for

2. intended to belong to, or be used in connection with: equipment for the army; a closet for dishes.

That means transitional justice is topical in post-conflict states—but assistance is aid to Egypt to institute a transitional justice system, not to hold a trial in the U.S.—(note: this is their 2AC T card
Mitchell, 8
Lincoln Mitchell, Assistant Professor of International Politics @ Columbia and Chief of Party for the NDI, David Phillips, project director of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy, The National Committee on American Foreign Policy, “Enhancing Democracy Assistance,” January 2008

This report offers recommendations
AND
to democratization opportunities.

AND—they don’t meet this interpretation either because it qualifies that this interpretation only applies in post-conflict states, which is Libya, not Egypt

C. Reasons to vote negative

1. Limits—Their interpretation allows the U.S. to change any U.S. domestic policy if it indirectly supports a topic-country’s democratic development. Creates an unpredictable limit.

2. Ground—Neg ground for domestic politics and internal politics and relations disads are based on the U.S. delivering assistance and interfering in other country’s political development—allowing the US to create its own TRC undermines this core ground

Independently they are not democracy assistance—their we meet evidence says transitional justice is topical in post-conflict states. Egypt did not just have a civil war – its not post-conflict.

1nc

The plan destroys Saudi relations
Shanahan, 6/23
(Chief of Army Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy and is now a non-resident Fellow at the Institute, http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2011/06/23/Washington-Riyadh-and-the-Arab-Spring.aspx)

Equally important, the Gulf
AND
limits to American exceptionalism.

Breakdown of relations spurs Saudi prolif
Lippman, 8/5
(Sr. Adjunct Scholar-Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.susris.com/2011/08/05/saudi-arabia’s-nuclear-policy-lippman/)

So let us suppose that Saudi Arabia’s
AND
emerge less secure, rather than more.

That causes global nuclear war
Edelman, 11
(Jan/Feb, Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments & Former U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran)

There is, however, at least one
AND
, with unpredictable consequences.

1nc

Will pass now and Obama is pushing
Yonhap, 9/24
(“U.S. Senate clears one hurdle to FTA with S. Korea,” Lexis)

U.S. and South Korean
AND
Lee into consideration."

Massive backlash to a transparent independent commission
Eley, 9
Tom Eley, Global Research contributor, 4/27/2009, Obama, Democrats move to block torture investigation, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=13369

In the face of mounting
AND
through the Intelligence Committee.”

Capital key to get the GOP on board-crucial to restore credibility in Asian regional trade
Palmer, 9/2
(Reuters Columnist, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902)

This month business groups expect Obama
AND
votes in the Senate to approve the trade pacts.

Nuclear war
Auslin, 9
(Columnist-Weekly Standard, 2/5, http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/016/115jtnqw.asp)

AS THEY DEAL WITH a collapsing
AND
destroyed international systems in the past.

1nc

Circumventing the SCAF causes backlash
Fadel, 11
(7/30, WP Columnist, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/military-stokes-xenophobia-in-egypt/2011/07/28/gIQAFnGjjI_story.html)

CAIRO — Facing mounting challenges
AND
of being treated as suspect.

TRC causes them to flip and crack down – turns case
Negus, 8/2
Steve Negus, journalist and commentator specialising in Egypt and Iraq, Former Iraq correspondent for the Financial Times between 2004 and 2008, and worked for the Institute of War and Peace Reporting in 2003 and 2004. He lived and worked in Egypt between 1993 and 2003, where he was editor of the Cairo Times, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68011/steve-negus/mubaraks-trial-and-errors?page=2

All this places Egypt's human
AND
not gained much traction. 

Means they shutdown the Suez Canal
Martini, 11
(Rand Associate, 8/25, Foreign Affairs, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2011/08/25/FA.html)

Yet the United States' capacity to
AND
United States can do little to change.

Suez access key to prevent skyrocketing oil prices
Lompoc Record, 11
(2/2, http://www.lompocrecord.com/news/opinion/editorial/article_65b89d98-2e91-11e0-bf9b-001cc4c002e0.html

On the other hand, Obama and just about everyone
AND
provided by that a steady supply of oil.

High oil prices increase food prices – causes global starvation
Helen Robertson 11, journalist at Petroleum Economist, April, “Poor feel the pain as crude surges”, lexis

And as the price of crude oil continues
AND
by offering benefits, including food subsidies.

Global instability and war
Brown, 9 - founder of the Worldwatch Institute and the Earth Policy Institute
(Lester R, “Can Food Shortages Bring Down Civilization?” Scientific American, May)

The biggest threat to global
AND
stability of global civilization itself.

1nc

Democracy assistance creates an imperial relation to the Middle East that prevents indigenous democracy
Slater, Dept of Geography – Loughborough University, ‘6
(David, “Imperial powers and democratic imaginations,” Third World Quarterly Vol. 27, No. 8)

But how do these varied points
AND
 other Latin American leader. 

Imperialism ensures extinction
Santos, LA editor and writer, 7/31/’6
(Juan, “Apocalypse No!” http://www.energybulletin.net/node/18788) 

It's simple. And obvious. We permanent new Reich.
AND
Their other option is Armageddon.

Calls for external intervention strip political agency – resistance should start as a bottom-up movement
Bayat, Professor of Sociology and Middle Eastern studies – U Illinois, ‘9
(Asef, Life as politics: how ordinary people change the Middle East, p. 2-7)

Given these constraints, an alternative view
AND
pushing for democratic reform.

1nc

Counterplan: The United States federal government should hold a truth and reconciliation commission on United States policies and practices that led to abuse and torture, providing all relevant information.

AND—The counterplan solves the aff better—investigates the totality of U.S. abuses post-9/11, including issues like extraordinary rendition isolated by the aff
Leahy, 9
Patrick Leahy, Senator (VT), 2/12/2009, A Truth Commission to Investigate Bush-Cheney Administration Abuses, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sen-patrick-leahy/a-truth-commission-to-inv_b_166461.html

We have just emerged from a time
AND
, so we do not repeat them in the future.

1nc advantage

Vengeance mentality inevitable in Egypt
El-Wardani 3/25/11
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContentPrint/3/0/8538/Business/0/Egypt-mulls-reconciliation-for-Mubarak-cronies.aspx
al-ahram staff

While for the government
AND
if they were to return state funds.

Mubarak trial solves the aff
Bauer, 11
Marion Bauer, Alternatives International, 8/31/11, The Hosni Mubarak Trial , http://www.alterinter.org/article3634.html?lang=fr

This process is neither
AND
there will be a zero tolerance policy.

The plan destroys that – TRCs need to come after the trial
Economist 7/30/11
http://www.economist.com/node/21524875

Hence the urgent need for the
AND
and tried fairly. That process should start forthwith. 

International involvement turns the case
Zwanenburg, 3
Marten Zwanenburg, Netherlands Dept. of Defense Lawyer, 2003, Much Truth about Truth Commissions, www.du.edu/korbel/hrhw/volumes/2003/zwanenburg-2003.pdf

Unspeakable Truths addresses several =
AND
 desirable and what form it should take.

Egypt would say no the plan
Mazzei, 11
Julie Mazzei, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Kent State University, May 2011, Finding Shame in Truth, Human Rights Quarterly, Volume 33, Number 2, May 2011, Project Muse

The Truth Commission in El Salvador =
AND
findings and the Commission itself as "foreign interference."86

TRCs don’t cause reconciliation
Wilson, 3
Richard Ashby Wilson, reader in social anthropology at the University of Sussex. He is the author of The Politics of Truth and Reconciliation in South Africa, 2003, Justice and Retribution in Postconflict Settings, Public Culture 15.1 (2003) 187-190, Project Muse

For these reasons, reconciliation
AND
hatred for their former enemy.

Root cause claims fail
Martin, professor of science, technology, and society – University of Wollongong, ‘90
(Brian, http://www.uow.edu.au/arts/sts/bmartin/pubs/90uw/uw13.html) 

In this chapter and in the
AND
strategies for grassroots movements to uproot them.

Their impact doesn’t escalate
Robert Hinde and Lea Pulkkinnen, Cambridge psychology professor and University of Jyväskylä psychology professor, 2K, DRAFT Background Paper for Working Group 1: HUMAN AGGRESSIVENESS AND WAR, 50th Pugwash Conference On Science and World Affairs: "Eliminating the Causes of War" Queens' College, Cambridge, http://www.pugwash.org/reports/pac/pac256/WG1draft1.htm

People are capable of
AND
factors remain largely unexplored.

Their focus on democratic openness and information disclosure creates a fetish for democracy saturated by constant circulation
Dean 2
http://www.questia.com/read/109364627?title=Publicity%27s%20Secret%3a%20%20How%20Technoculture%20Capitalizes%20on%20Democracy
Professor of Political Science. Ph.D., Columbia
M.A., Columbia B.A., Princeton
co-editor of Theory and Event

Critical democratic theory
AND
cultural recognition. If something isn't public(ized), it doesn't seem to exist at all.

That wrecks solvency – makes reconciliation and true democracy impossible
Dean 2
http://www.questia.com/read/109364627?title=Publicity%27s%20Secret%3a%20%20How%20Technoculture%20Capitalizes%20on%20Democracy
Professor of Political Science. Ph.D., Columbia
M.A., Columbia B.A., Princeton
co-editor of Theory and Event

Indeed, in light of the
AND
rhetoric of publicity, there is no public.

Psychoanlaysis creates a closed system that doesn’t describe reality
Perpich, 2005 (Dian Professor of PHILOSOPHY AT Vanderbilt “Figurative Language and the ‘Face’ in Levinas’s Philosophy” Philosophy and Rhetoric vol. 38:2)

 Levinas’s hesitations about the
AND
that threatens to drown the ego in the totality. 

Their theory doesn’t spill over
Levinson 7,  Department of Comparative Literature, State University of New York at Binghamton, (Brett, “ In Theory, Politics Does not Exist,” Postmodern Culture Volume 18, Number 1, September, Project Muse)  

This signifier that would head popular
AND
jouissance!) as our working conditions.

2nc solvency

2. Giraldi says we should have a TRC here and the CP is sufficient to set a precedent
Giraldi ‘9
(Philip, Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest and former counter-terrorism specialist, “Truth and Reconciliation”, http://original.antiwar.com/giraldi/2009/04/13/truth-and-reconciliation/)

Circumstances in the United States
AND
ordered by the president of the United States.

More 1AC ev supports the CP
Rosenberg 9/11
(Paul, Senior Editor of Random Lengths News, “9/11's self-inflicted wounds are the worst”, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/09/2011910115157366771.html)\

Looking forward
Of course, the moment for making
AND
emulated in other countries as well.

Only the CP solves—a domestic TRC is key to create accountability of US officials who promoted torture
Gamage, 11
Daya Gamage, US Bureau Asia Tribune, 7/22/11, Obama rejects probe on Bush-era torture: “Need to look forward not backwards”, http://asiantribune.com/news/2011/07/21/obama-rejects-probe-bush-era-torture-“need-look-forward-not-backwards”

Human Rights Watch said that the
AND
abuses of the Bush administration are not repeated.

Creates forgiveness – solves the revenge impact
Duveen, 8
Peter Duveen, 11/19/2008, Author calls for formation of truth and reconciliation commission to heal wounds of 9-11 , http://www.petersnewyork.com/griffin.html

One of the major critics
AND
scope and character of abuses.

Holding Cheney accountable is key
Sullivan, 10
Andrew Sullivan, The Atlantic, 2/14/10, Cheney: "I Was A Big Supporter Of Waterboarding", http://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/archive/2010/02/cheney-i-was-a-big-supporter-of-waterboarding/190386/

Cheney: "I Was A Big Supporter
AND
 and conventions meaningless.

at: doesn’t solve egypt

Their only card about Egypt votes neg
Michael ‘11
(Marc Michael, Open Security, “Egypt After Mubarak: Finding Truth in Transition,” 22 February 2011, http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensecurity/marc-michael/egypt-after-mubarak-finding-truth-in-transition)

The prosecution of a scattering of old regime
AND
first step in that direction.

2nc impact ov

We control the root cause – desire to force external change
Ruwart, Fmr-Professor-St. Louis Medical School, ‘93
(http://www.ruwart.com/Healing/ruwart_all.html)

Ultimately, our inner harmony
AND
and poverty, we can manifest our dream.

And, value to life – assistance mentality destroys agency
Escobar, Anthropology-UC Santa Cruz, ‘91
(Arturo, American Ethnologist, Vol. 18, No. 4., Nov. P.  667)

There is also an apparent neutrality
AND
fundamentally political in nature.

Imperialism necessitates permanent warfare
Slater, Dept of Geography – Loughborough University, ‘6
(David, “Imperial powers and democratic imaginations,” Third World Quarterly Vol. 27, No. 8)

In a similar vein to Gill, they suggest that,
AND
freedom and democracy, as will be discussed below.

2nc k turns case

K turns superpower syndrome – imperialism causes threat construction to justify continued intervention
Olsen, professor of national security affairs – Naval Postgraduate School, ‘2
(Edward, U.S. National Defense for the Twenty-First Century: The Grand Exit Strategy, p. 114-115)

As Ted Galen Carpenter suggested
AND
 they were not designed. 

Turns revenge – backlash to US imperialism ensures cycles of revenge – embracing indigenous revolutions solves
Ricciardi, writer of science, nature, technology articles and essays, taught ecology and natural science in Cape Cod, 5/6/’11
(Michael, http://planetsave.com/2011/05/06/celebrating-a-terrorists-death-the-psychology-biology-of-revenge/)

What fails to get mentioned in most of
AND
can be threatened by any revolution).

Imperialism causes public backlash
Acuto, Dept of Social Sciences and Dept of IR - Australian National University, ‘8
(Michele, “Wilson Victorious? Understanding Democracy Promotion in the Midst of a "Backlash",” Alternatives 33, p. 461 – 480)

So has President Wilson really been
AND
the process, not the ideal.

2nc at: perm

Ignatius says that the revolution will: “go off the rails” – also says revenge mentality “poses danger for Tahrir square.” That call for transition stability is a form of imperialist management that disables Egyptian agency
Anthony C. Alessandrini, Kingsborough Community College – City University of New York, 2011 “Toute décolonisation est une réussite; Les damnés de la terre and the African Spring” Journal of French and Francophone Philosophy | Revue de la philosophie française et de langue française Vol XIX, No 1, | jffp.org | DOI 10.5195/jffp.2011.474

Indeed, if anyone needs a Fanonian reminder
AND
forward, we must to do our best to keep up.

Ignatius then says: “The BIGGEST COST” to a revenge mentality in Egypt is that: “it would undermine the economic strategy of innovation, investment and entrepreneurship.” That economic management destroys democracy and turns case
Andrew Gavin Marshall, Research Associate with the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG).  He is co-editor, with Michel Chossudovsky, of the recent book, “The Global Economic Crisis: The Great Depression of the XXI Century,”, February 10, 2011 “America’s Strategic Repression of the ‘Arab Awakening’” http://coto2.wordpress.com/2011/02/10/america%E2%80%99s-strategic-repression-of-the-%E2%80%98arab-awakening%E2%80%99/

This spurred on the development
AND
into the world economy.

All of this is ironic because Ignatius is writing in the Washington Post and their Napoletano card says…
Napoletano ‘11
(Brian, member of the International Socialist Organization and the former Public Relations officer for Purdue University Students for Justice in Palestine, “The Egyptian Revolution and Democracy”, February 16, 2011, http://www.eurasiareview.com/16022011-the-egyptian-revolution-and-democracy/)

An alternative interpretation of
AND
embodied in the Egyptian revolution.

Can’t reform democracy assistance – this is crushing
Napoletano ‘11
(Brian, member of the International Socialist Organization and the former Public Relations officer for Purdue University Students for Justice in Palestine, “The Egyptian Revolution and Democracy”, February 16, 2011, http://www.eurasiareview.com/16022011-the-egyptian-revolution-and-democracy/)

Imperial conquests have always
AND
and programs adopted by the state.

Also, Rosenberg says that we should act to create “a spectacular victory for the rule of law … and America’s moral superiority”. He also frames their impact in an interesting way:
Rosenberg 9/11
(Paul, Senior Editor of Random Lengths News, “9/11's self-inflicted wounds are the worst”, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/09/2011910115157366771.html)

This had happened once
AND
1990s crack wars.

2nc at: counter-interp

2. Precision  Democracy Assistance must be done in a target country
Toonstra, 10
[Dick, Director - European Parliament Office for Promotion of Parliamentary Democracy, “Getting Acquainted: Setting the Stage for Democracy Assistance‖
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/pdf/oppd/Page_8/getting_acquainted_web.pdf, p.7-8, accessed 5-17-11, ]

 Thus, key characteristics of
AND
particular socio-economic assistance 

That outweighs
Lappin, University of Leuven (Belgium) Centre for Peace Research and Strategic Studies PhD candidate, 2010
[Richard, participant in democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE, and Carter Center, University of Belgrade political sciences visiting scholar, Central European Journal of International & Security Studies, Volume 4 Issue 1, ―What we talk about when we talk about democracy assistance: the problem of definition in post-conflict approaches to democratization‖ http://soc.kuleuven.be/iieb/docs/2010/CEJISS-lappin.pdf] 

By the end of the 1990s, the
AND
in practice, will ultimately be undermined. 

Aff flex does not outweigh:

The topical version of a transitional justice aff for Egypt is to aid the Mubarak trial
Browers, 8/17
Michaelle Browers, Associate Professor of Political Science at Wake Forest University, 8/17/11, How Mubarak's trial brings justice to Egypt,http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/17/how_mubaraks_trial_brings_justice_to_egypt

Egypt is not the first country
AND
 that justice was achieved.

Or could just provide technical assistance for the creation of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission
Hayner 1
Priscilla B. Hayner, Director, International Policymakers Unit, at the International Center for Transitional Justice in New York, 2001, Unspeakable truths: confronting state terror and atrocity, google books, p. 203

While avoiding dictating the exact
AND
for a truth commission in Bosnia.

2nc link wall

SCAF obviously backlashes over an effort to disclose SCAF secrets
New York Times 3/9/11
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/10/world/middleeast/10cairo.html?pagewanted=all

Like so many other milestones,
AND
security service and dismantle the organization. 

SCAF wants a speedy Mubarak trial – the plan destroys that
Browers, 8/17
Michaelle Browers, Associate Professor of Political Science at Wake Forest University, 8/17/11, How Mubarak's trial brings justice to Egypt,http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/17/how_mubaraks_trial_brings_justice_to_egypt

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces
AND
 rights groups have deemed unfair.

The plan would INVESTIGATE THE SCAF AS CRIMINALS – obviously they would flip out
Mayton, 8/3
Joseph Mayton, Dawn staff writer, 8/3/11, Egypt’s liberals push limits as Mubarak trial gets under way, http://www.dawn.com/2011/08/03/egypt’s-liberals-push-limits-as-mubarak-trial-gets-under-way.html

We learned a lot about Egypt and its
AND
took to the streets on January 25.

The link is unique – SCAF legitimacy is based on distancing itself from Mubarak war crimes
Negus, 8/2
Steve Negus, journalist and commentator specialising in Egypt and Iraq, Former Iraq correspondent for the Financial Times between 2004 and 2008, and worked for the Institute of War and Peace Reporting in 2003 and 2004. He lived and worked in Egypt between 1993 and 2003, where he was editor of the Cairo Times, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/68011/steve-negus/mubaraks-trial-and-errors?page=2

According to Egyptian news reports former
AND
will be afraid to be put in prison."

2nc turns case

Stoking anti-Americanism causes the public to reject the plan
Van Bommel 8/4/11
http://www.rnw.nl/english/article/mubarak-trial-history-making

According to the professor, it would be
AND
however, the people on the streets of Egypt will simply never understand that.” 

The regime would just burn all the evidence
Rifkin 3/5/11
http://lexicondaily.blogspot.com/2011/03/burning-evidence-in-egypt-secret-police.html

Now that Mubarak is out of
AND
still work for that government. 

Status quo solves – SCAF setting the pace causes reconciliation
Negus, 11
Steve Negus, Foreign Affairs, 8/3/11, Mubarak's trial and errors, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/08/03/mubaraks-trial-and-errors/

In the end, SCAF might simply be
AND
create a post-Mubarak state.

internal link

Our evidence is reverse causal – stable SCAF calms markets
Bruce Stokes 11, Senior Transatlantic Fellow for Economics at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S., “Mideast Protests Drive Up Oil, Threaten Recovery”, February 1, http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/02/01/Mideast-Protests-Drive-up-Oil-Threaten-Recovery.aspx

Oil market speculation about
AND
 against rising energy prices.  

Traders respond instantly to changes in stability
AP 11, “Oil prices rise on concerns about Libya, region's stability”, March 21, http://www.toledoblade.com/Energy/2011/03/21/Oil-prices-rise-on-concerns-about-Libya-region-s-stability.html

Oil traders said they’re increasingly
AND
 to headlines out of the Middle East.

A2 spare capacity

Spare capacity is gone
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 11, International Business Editor for The Telegraph, “Oil markets brace for Saudi 'rage' as global spare capacity wears thin”, March 8, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/8369427/Oil-markets-brace-for-Saudi-rage-as-global-spare-capacity-wears-thin.html

Goldman Sachs suspects that OPEC
AND
to drive prices down for a prolonged period".

Saudi oil isn’t substitutable with light crude
Ratner, energy policy analyst – CRS, 3/10/’11
(Michael, “Middle East and North Africa Unrest: Implications for Oil and Natural Gas Markets,” https://www.nusacc.org/assets/library/189_crsr41683.pdf)

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait
AND
back into operation in April.6

2nc vengence inevitable

Syria and Israel make the revenge impact inevitable
Ignatius ‘11
(David, former executive editor of the International Herald Tribune, “The whiff of revenge taints the Arab Spring”, May 27, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-whiff-of-revenge-taints-the-arab-spring/2011/05/26/AGqytyCH_story.html)

This transition process is
AND
truth and reconciliation, too.

2nc trial turn

Only local TRCs solve – can’t be imposed
Hayner, 6
Priscilla B. Hayner, Director, International Policymakers Unit, at the International Center for Transitional Justice in New York, June 2006, Truth commissions: a schematic overview, www.icrc.org/eng/assets/files/other/irrc_862_hayner.pdf

The attached chart provides
AND
inclusive of a wide range of perspectives.

The risk of failure is high – turns the whole case
Hayner 1
Priscilla B. Hayner, Director, International Policymakers Unit, at the International Center for Transitional Justice in New York, 2001, Unspeakable truths: confronting state terror and atrocity, google books, p. 202

Yet even where there is no expressed
AND
 should be treated with respect.

at: trial doesn’t solve

The trial works
Browers, 8/17
Michaelle Browers, Associate Professor of Political Science at Wake Forest University, 8/17/11, How Mubarak's trial brings justice to Egypt,http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/17/how_mubaraks_trial_brings_justice_to_egypt

The trial is being held by
AND
international human rights standards.

More focus on process and rule of law undermines justice – Egyptians should decide the terms and the trial is sufficient
Masoud, asst prof of public policy – Harvard, 8/3/’11
(Tarek, http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/world/july-dec11/egypt2_08-03.html)

The Egyptian judiciary actually
AND
 tried in if I committed a crime in Egypt.

*at: implementation irrelevant

Proves the threshold for the status quo solving is low – the drive is sufficient
McAdams ‘11
(A. James, William M. Scholl Professor of International Studies @ University of Notre Dame, “Transitional Justice: The Issue that Won’t Go Away” The International Journal of Transitional Justice, Vol. 5, 2011, 304–312)

In contrast, I think it is more
AND
with past events has a didactic effect.

Implementation matters for solving their impacts
Allen, 99
Jonathan Allen, Ph.D. candidate, Department of Politics, Princeton University, 1999, Balancing Justice and Social Unity:Political Theory and the Idea ofa Truth and Reconciliation Commission, 49 Univ. of Toronto L.J. 315, lexis

Although I myself want
AND
, do not seem particularly promising in many cases.

1NC

off

They have to specify their agent. 

They destroy in-depth debate on the topic and core ground
Spence, 4
(Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law Stanford University, http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/20741/Spence-_CDDRL_10-4_draf1.pdf)

Comparing American and European approaches to democracy promotion
AND
policy, and unresolved tensions between policy goals.

Clarifying is aff conditionality – destroys ground with unlimited 2AC specification.

off

Democracy assistance creates an imperial relation to the Middle East that prevents indigenous democracy
Slater, Dept of Geography – Loughborough University, ‘6
(David, “Imperial powers and democratic imaginations,” Third World Quarterly Vol. 27, No. 8)

But how do these varied points relate to
AND
in the past seven years than any other Latin American leader. 

Imperialism ensures extinction
Santos, LA editor and writer, 7/31/’6
(Juan, “Apocalypse No!” http://www.energybulletin.net/node/18788) 

It's simple. And obvious. We find
AND
Anti-Christ - a permanent new Reich.
Their other option is Armageddon.

Alternative: reject securitized democracy assistance

Calls for external intervention strip political agency – resistance should start as a bottom-up movement
Bayat, Professor of Sociology and Middle Eastern studies – U Illinois, ‘9
(Asef, Life as politics: how ordinary people change the Middle East, p. 2-7)

Given these constraints, an alternative view postulates
AND
elections of June 12, 2009) pushing for democratic reform.

off

Will pass now and Obama is pushing
Yonhap, 9/24
(“U.S. Senate clears one hurdle to FTA with S. Korea,” Lexis)

U.S. and South Korean government
AND
upcoming) trip by President Lee into consideration."

Democracy assistance drains political capital
McLaughlin, contributing writer – The Washington Diplomat, 5/31/’11
(Seth, “Key Foreign Policy Players Try to Master Capitol Hill,” The Washington Diplomat)

But it's not just politicos in Washington and
AND
USAID operating expenses were trimmed by $39 million.

Obama must use capital to get the GOP on board-key to Asian regional trade
Palmer, 9/2
(Reuters Columnist, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/02/us-usa-obama-trade-idUSTRE7814CZ20110902)

This month business groups expect Obama at long
AND
in the Senate to approve the trade pacts.

Solves U.S.-China trade war
Bergsten, Director – Institute for International Economics, 9/6/’5
(Fred, “A New Strategy for APEC,” http://www.pecc.org/ftaap/papers/PECCXVI-GM-Bergsten.pdf)

Only an FTAAP can avoid a severe risk
AND
will inevitably have huge spillover effects on the entire region.

Extinction
The Strait Times 6/25/’2K l/n

THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross
AND
, for China puts sovereignty above everything else.

off

The European Union should provide technical support in the areas of rule of law, political participation, constitution-making and the electoral process for Libya through the United Nations Support Mission in Libya.

NGOs reject the plan – only the EU solves
Kausch 10 (Assessing Democracy Assistance: Egypt Kristina Kausch Researcher at FRIDE Project Report: Assessing Democracy Assistance May 2010 www.fride.org/download/IP_WMD_Egypt_ENG_jul10.pdf) TBC 6/23/11

Often, impact potential was reduced by a
AND
highly critical of their donor and its agenda.

off

The United States federal government should extend a tax credit of 39 cents for every dollar invested by business, non-governmental organizations, and individuals that provide provide technical support in the areas of rule of law, political participation, constitution-making and the electoral process for Libya through the United Nations Support Mission in Libya.

Tax credits expand foreign aid and avoid corruption and bureaucracy
Werker, 7
(Professor-Harvard Business School, 10/20, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/20/opinion/20werker.html)

While foreign aid works in some situations,
AND
do not compete directly with American workers.

burden sharing
No challengers
Kaplan, senior fellow – Center for a New American Security, and Kaplan, frmr. vice chairman – National Intelligence Council, ‘11
(Robert D and Stephen S, “America Primed,” The National Interest, March/April)

But in spite of the seemingly inevitable and
AND
plodding competence, occasionally steely nerved and always free of illusion.

No impact to decline
Adams, Professor U.S. Foreign Policy Program – American University, Distinguished Fellow – Stimson Center, ‘11
(Gordon, “A Leaner and Meaner Defense,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90 Iss. 1, January/February) 

Some people point to China as a successor
AND
involve a stabilization mission, governance reform, and economic development.

Heg doesn’t solve war
Mastanduno, 9 – Professor of Government at Dartmouth
(Michael, World Politics 61, No. 1, Ebsco) 

During the cold war the United States dictated
AND
no longer count on getting its own way.

Retrenchment solves
MacDonald and Parent 11 (Paul K., Assistant Professor of Political Science at Williams College, Joseph M., Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Miami, “Graceful Decline? The Surprising Success of Great Power Retrenchment,” International Security, Vol. 35, No. 4, Spring 2011, pp. 7–44, http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/ISEC_a_00034)

These arguments have grim implications for contemporary international
AND
that failed to retrench recovered their relative position.

multilat

Squo solves – solvency evidence says
Obama solves
Sofae 10, George P. Shultz Distinguished Scholar at Sanford University’s Hoover Institution, (Abraham, "Obama: Dropping the War on Terror, preemption, preventative force - Adopting 'Multilateralism'," May 3, www.aipnews.com/talk/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=13876&posts=1&start=1

 The Gates’ Pentagon will make significant changes
AND
Bush would have rejected to secure such agreements.

UN fails and not key to global problems—coalitions solves
Haas, 10
Richard Haas, CFR President, 1/5/2010, The Case for Messy Multilateralism, http://www.cfr.org/publication/21132/case_for_messy_multilateralism.html?breadcrumb=%2Fissue%2F42%2Fun

But to acknowledge that we are all multilateralists
AND
be more fluid and, at times, messy than what we are used to.

Alt cause—Security council reform
Patrick, 9
Stewart Patrick, CFR Global Governance Program Director and Senior Fellow, October 2009, "Prix Fixe and a la Carte: Avoiding False Multilateralism" http://www.twq.com/09october/docs/09oct_Patrick.pdf

Fifth, simply expanding international institutions is no
AND
addressing one gap will not necessarily address the other. 

No Impact – Prolif will be slow
Waltz 3, adjunct professor of political science at Columbia University
 (Kenneth, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A debate renewed, p 3-4)

What will the spread of nuclear weapons do
AND
to the world is therefore a compelling question. 

Prolif inevitable – getting nukes is rational and can’t be dissuaded
Roth, 7
[Ariel Ilan, Associate Director of National Security Studies at the Johns Hopkins University’s Krieger School of Arts and Sciences.  "The Inevitability of a Nuclear Tomorrow: Iran, North Korea and the Rational Desire for Nuclear Weapons" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association 48th Annual Convention, Hilton Chicago, CHICAGO, IL, USA, Feb 28, 2007 http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p178708_index.html]

The case of Israel is particularly instructive.
AND
more uncertain and more scary future 

No risk of nuclear terror
Mueller 10 (John, professor of political science at Ohio State, Calming Our Nuclear Jitters, Issues in Science and Technology, Winter, http://www.issues.org/26.2/mueller.html)

Politicians of all stripes preach to an anxious
AND
million or one in three billion per attempt.

Public won’t demand retaliation
Smith and Herron 5, *Professor, University of Oklahoma, * University of Oklahoma Norman Campus, (Hank C. Jenkins-Smith, Ph.D., and Kerry G., "United States Public Response to Terrorism: Fault Lines or Bedrock?" Review of Policy Research 22.5 (2005): 599-623, http://works.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1000&context=hjsmith)

Our final contrasting set of expectations relates to
AND
times of crises, it remains securely anchored in bedrock beliefs.

Apocalyptic environmental predictions are empirically wrong
Ronald Bailey, adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, May 2k,http://reason.com/0005/fe.rb.earth.shtml

Earth Day 1970 provoked a torrent of apocalyptic
AND
sincere, is no substitute for rational analysis.

6 degree warming inevitable
AP 9 (Associated Press, Six Degree Temperature Rise by 2100 is Inevitable: UNEP, September 24, http://www.speedy-fit.co.uk/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=168)

Earth's temperature is likely to jump six degrees
AND
about a foot every 20 to 25 years.

stability

No escalation
Fettweis, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College, ‘7
(Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98) 

Without the US presence, a second argument
AND
interest is far more likely than outright warfare.

Iraq instability won’t spill-over – political risks, blowback and no precedent
Cook 07 – fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
Steven A., and Ray Takeyh (fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations), Suzanne Maloney (senior fellow at Saban Center) Brookings Institution, International Herald Tribune, “Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast,” 6-28, www.iht.com/articles/2007/06/28/opinion/edtakeyh.php

It is abundantly clear that major outside powers
AND
local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East. 

African conflict won’t draw in others
Morenike Taire, April 9, 2004, Vanguard (Nigeria), Global News Wire – Asia Africa Intelligence Wire, p. Lexis

Defining our role may not have to be
AND
no longer be calm, cool and collected.

Stabilizing Libya will bring down oil prices
DT, Daniel’s Training market analysis firm, 9/13/’11
(http://www.danielstrading.com/resources/news/General-Financial-News/Debt-crisis-in-euro-zone-likely-to-drive-crude-oil-futures-higher_800594714/)

"Crude markets continue to exhibit extreme tightness
AND
is easier said than done.

High oil prices key to the Russian economy
Andrew E. Kramer 11, New York Times, “Russia Cashes In on Oil Supply Anxiety”, March 8, http://www.cnbc.com/id/41963140/Russia_Cashes_In_on_Oil_Supply_Anxiety

Whatever the eventual outcome of the Arab world’s
AND
less vulnerable to an outbreak of social unrest.

Global nuclear conflict
David, Prof Poli Sci – Johns Hopkins University, ‘99
(Steven, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb)

AT NO TIME since the civil war of
AND
chaos that would follow a Russian civil war.

2NC
2nc impact ov

We control the root cause – desire to force external change
Ruwart, Fmr-Professor-St. Louis Medical School, ‘93
(http://www.ruwart.com/Healing/ruwart_all.html)

Ultimately, our inner harmony and abundance depend
AND
and poverty, we can manifest our dream.

And, value to life – assistance mentality destroys agency
Escobar, Anthropology-UC Santa Cruz, ‘91
(Arturo, American Ethnologist, Vol. 18, No. 4., Nov. P.  667)

There is also an apparent neutrality in identifying
AND
rational process that is fundamentally political in nature.

This is an ethical choice in opposition to pure utilitarian-technocractic calculus
Alain Badiou 2011 “The Universal Reach of Popular Uprisings” The Wind of the East Carries Away the Wind of the West http://www.lacan.com/thesymptom/?page_id=1031

Until when will the idle and crepuscular West
AND
that ultimately will overthrow the authority in residence. 

2nc k turns case

Imperialism causes public backlash
Acuto, Dept of Social Sciences and Dept of IR - Australian National University, ‘8
(Michele, “Wilson Victorious? Understanding Democracy Promotion in the Midst of a "Backlash",” Alternatives 33, p. 461 – 480)

So has President Wilson really been victorious?
AND
should promote the process, not the ideal.

External interventions structurally fail
Gause, 11
(Columnist-National Interest, 5/26, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/misdiagnosing-the-middle-east-5368?page=show)

There is a dangerous consensus about the Middle
AND
we like it or not. We should leave them alone.

2nc at: perm

Western intervention destroys bottom-up politics
Ayers, Political Science – Simon Fraser University, ‘9
(Alison, “Imperial Liberties: Democratisation and Governance in the ‘New’ Imperial Order,” Political Studies Vol. 57, Iss. 1, March)

Thus, far from non- or indeed
AND
clamor of Euro-American triumphalism’ (Comaroff and Comaroff, 1997, p. 141).

The perm is a yes/no question – Mid East movements are easily coopted
Slavoj Žižek, international director of the Birkbeck Institute for the Humanities,10 February 2011 “For Egypt, this is the miracle of Tahrir Square” http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2011/feb/10/egypt-miracle-tahrir-square  

When President Obama welcomed the uprising as a
AND
not buried by cynical realpolitik.

2nc libya

Intervention in Libya is thinly-veiled regime change
Patrick Martin, International Committee of the Fourth International, 22 August 2011 "NATO-backed forces move into Tripoli" https://www.wsws.org/articles/2011/aug2011/liby-a22.shtml

The Libyan regime of Muammar Gaddafi appeared on
AND
Gaddafi loyalists designated as criminals and potential troublemakers.”

*US intervention attempts to establish a new puppet for its own interests which recreates the despotic regimes of before
Alex Lantier, staff writer International Committee of the Fourth International, 20 August 2011 "Western-backed rebel forces encircle Libyan capital" https://www.wsws.org/articles/2011/aug2011/liby-a20.shtml
NATO warplanes are bombing Tripoli, as Western
AND
similar forces when it suits their imperialist interests.

links – terrorism

Terror threat rhetoric is overblown and serves as an excuse for violent democratizing interventions
Miller, Prof Poli Sci – Wellesley, ‘9
(Linda B, “The U.S. and the Middle East in Theory and Practice Since 9/11,” http://ww.watsoninstitute.org/pubs_news/ISA_Miller.pdf)

The Bush entourage, especially its complement of
AND
stop gap in the presumably more pragmatic second term.

2nc at: framework

Focus on method and discourse is key to effective Mid East studies
Lockman, Chair – Department of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies @ NYU, Spring ‘5
(Zachary, “Critique from the Right: The Neo-conservative Assault on Middle East Studies,” The New Centennial Review 5.1, Muse)

But there is a larger issue at stake
AND
has been very interested in engaging with critical perspectives.

2nc case is wrong

Their scenario-building is wrong – threats from democracy experts are a tool to force the choice between imperialism and local movements
Elliott, School of Public Policy – University College of London, ‘9
(Cathy, “The Day Democracy Died: The Depoliticising Effects of Democratic Development,” Alternatives 34(3), p. 249 – 274)
NOTE: DFID = UK Department for International Development

So far, so uncontroversial, perhaps.
AND
radically undermines the role of politics.

Institutional bias privileges worst-case scenarios to justify US intervention
Olsen, professor of national security affairs – Naval Postgraduate School, ‘2
(Edward, U.S. National Defense for the Twenty-First Century: The Grand Exit Strategy, p. 114-115)

As Ted Galen Carpenter suggested in 1992 during
AND
which they were not designed. 

1nc predictions fail

Predictions fail
Hounshell, managing editor – Foreign Policy, ‘11
(Blake, “Dark Crystal,” Foreign Policy, July/August)

In early March, California Sen. Dianne
AND
"The degree of a sultan's weakness is often visible only in retrospect."

2nc at: specificity

Specificity is a neg argument  aff authors invent specific distinctions to avoid critique – that causes more intervention
Jahn, Professor of International Relations – University of Sussex, ‘7
(Beate, “The Tragedy of Liberal Diplomacy: Democratization, Intervention, Statebuilding (Part II),” Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding, 1:2, 211-229)

The very same criticisms – romanticization of the
AND
Crocker 2003; Williams and Young 1994: 96).

2nc alt solves case

Rejecting the aff is key – less US involvement = more indigenous success
Andrew Gavin Marshall, Research Associate with the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG).  He is co-editor, with Michel Chossudovsky, of the recent book, “The Global Economic Crisis: The Great Depression of the XXI Century,”, February 10, 2011 “America’s Strategic Repression of the ‘Arab Awakening’” http://coto2.wordpress.com/2011/02/10/america%E2%80%99s-strategic-repression-of-the-%E2%80%98arab-awakening%E2%80%99/

If the revolution took its own course,
AND
context explained in this part.

Resisting US engagement solves the impact – only US involvement allows conflicts to escalate
Conry, foreign policy analyst – Cato, ‘94
(Barbara, http://www.cato.org/pubs/fpbriefs/fpb-033.html)

Washington cannot control the volatile Persian Gulf region
AND
the presence of U.S. troops.
U.S. vital interests from a Persian Gulf war.

2nc – no escalation

a) Best prediction model
Fettweis, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College, ‘7
(Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98) 

Firstly, and perhaps most obviously, policymakers
AND
post-war Iraq is not likely to be either.

Regional cooperation solves
Hadar, foreign policy studies – Cato, 7/1/’11
(Leon, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=13259)

To some extent, the recognition that the
AND
the Middle East and Central Asia.

2nc no impact

Other factors determine conflict
Ikenberry, 9 - Prof. Int’l Affairs @ Princeton (G. John et al, World Politics, Vol. 61, No. 1, p. Muse) 

Two major theoretical traditions deal with causes of
AND
overdetermined or have little to do with unipolarity.

Data proves
Geller 99—Geller and Singer, 99 – *Chair of the Department of Political Science @ Wayne State University (Daniel S and Joel David, Nations at war: a scientific study of international conflict, p. 116-117) 

Hopf (1991) and Levy (
AND
the number of major powers in the system. 

2nc un fails mutlilat

Empirics prove UN fails
Polakow-Suransky, 9
Sasha Polakow-Suransky, American Prospect staff writer, 12/17/2009, Hope Against History,' http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=hope_against_history

But whether or not the liberal interventionists get
AND
are probably doomed to fail," he concludes.

2nc no risk

Our statistics are for the most plausible scenarios-anything else is even less likely.
Mueller 8, John, Prof. Pol. Sci. @ Ohio State, 1/1/ (http://polisci.osu.edu/faculty/jmueller/APSACHGO.PDF)

These odds are for the most plausible scenario
AND
become, of course, even more prohibitive. 

1NR
overview

Turns their leadership and democracy credibility impacts
Dreier 1/5
Rep. Chairman of the House Rules Committee (Rep. David Dreier, 1/5/11, Politico, “Bipartisanship can revive economy,” http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0111/47044.html)
There are no higher priorities for our country
AND
to economic growth and global leadership through trade.

Solves the case—studies prove trade deters conflicts
Griswold 5
– director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute (Daniel, “Peace on earth? Try free trade among men,” 12-29-2005, http://www.freetrade.org/node/282)  JMP

Buried beneath the daily stories about car bombs
AND
trade also comes with its own peace dividend.

Independently, collapse of Asian trade ensures escalating global wars
Auslin, 9
(Columnist-Weekly Standard, 2/5, http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/016/115jtnqw.asp)

AS THEY DEAL WITH a collapsing world economy
AND
that have destroyed international systems in the past.

Goes nuclear
Landy, National Security Expert @ Knight Ridder, 3/10/’2K
(Jonathan, Knight Ridder, lexis)

Few if any experts think China and Taiwan
AND
last year, according to the Commerce Department.

A2 winners win

Obama can’t get momentum on foreign policy wins
Dickinson, professor of political science – Middlebury, 2/10/’11
(Matthew, “Egypt, Iraq and the Limits of Presidential Power,” http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2011/02/10/egypt-iraq-and-the-limits-of-presidential-power/)

My point is not to defend Bush for
AND
are or that they might wish to be.

Obama thinks that pol cap is finite – he’ll back off controversial issues even if he’s winning
Kuttner, co-editor of The American Prospect and a senior fellow at Demos, author of "Obama's Challenge: America's Economic Crisis and the Power of a Transformative Presidency, 4/28/’9
(Robert, “Obama Has Amassed Enormous Political Capital, But He Doesn't Know What to Do with It,” http://www.alternet.org/economy/138641/obama_has_amassed_enormous_political_capital,_but_he_doesn%27t_know_what_to_do_with_it/?page=entire)

We got a small taste of what a
AND
to the politics of accommodation.

A2 no controversy

Libya assistance drains capital
Boston Globe, 8/23/’11
(“Congress could resist additional aid to Libya”)

Foreign policy experts say the immediate aftermath of
AND
 could spill over into future debate over aid.

A2 pol cap low

Congress in worse shape-makes them likely to want to work with Obama
Mascaro, 9/15
(LA Times Columnist, http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-gop-tone-20110916,0,327748.story)

Although the partisan battles of the last six
AND
first responders, and repairing roads and bridges.

A2 thumpers

Top of the Agenda
Houston Chronicle 9/19, ("The Week Ahead: Obama’s deficit-reduction plan is DOA; trade pacts are alive," 2011, blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2011/09/the-week-ahead-obamas-deficit-reduction-plan-is-doa-trade-pacts-are-alive/) 

 Washington’s fall agenda is filling up:
AND
key element of President Barack Obama’s jobs initiative.

Issues don’t cost capital until they are at the finish line
Drumm, 10
(Political Columnist-Mother Jones, “Immigration Coming Off the Back Burner?”, Mar. 30, 2010)

Not to pick on Ezra or anything,
AND
popular issue to tackle during an election year.

A2 china

Won’t get to the house
Palmer, 9/21
(Reuters Columnist, Jobs deficit fuels U.S. Senate action on China yuan)

If the Senate passes its currency bill as
AND
, a spokesman for the United Steelworkers Union.

Too far away – no House vote
Palmer, 9-21
Doug Palmer, 9-21-2011, “ Analysis - Jobs deficit fuels U.S. Senate action on China yuan,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/21/uk-usa-china-currency-idUSTRE78K4SR20110921
But a House Republican at the centre of
AND
in the House before the current Congress ends.

A2 jobs

Not costing capital

Nazworth, 9/27
(“Is Obama Campaigning or Governing?”, Christian Post Reporter)
Obama's jobs bill proposal, dubbed the American
AND
the American Jobs Act is a low priority. 

Not top of the docket
Helderman, 9-27
Rosalind Helderman, post staff writer, 9-27-2011, “ Obama jobs plan: Senate Democrats won’t take up bill immediately, Harry Reid says,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-jobs-plan-senate-democrats-wont-take-up-bill-immediately-harry-reid-says/2011/09/27/gIQAWman2K_story.html 

 Despite early and regular pleas from the
AND
and other nations for currency ma­nipu­la­tion.

A2 intrin

Politics tests a key opportunity cost
Saideman, associate professor of political science - McGill University, 7/25/’11
(Steve, “Key Constraint on Policy Relevance,” http://duckofminerva.blogspot.com/2011/07/key-constraint-on-policy-relevance.html)

Dan Drezner has a great post today about
AND
gnash our teeth when it never happens.

A2 pc not key

Legislative maneuvering key
Knox, 9-23
Olivier Knox, 9-23-2011, “ US free trade deals hit new political roadblock,” AFP, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iT_WTzuLhk0B05jVcp45Twh8f4oA?docId=CNG.156d3cefd419e60ff44c454055dd53e3.21
WASHINGTON — The White House and its Republican
AND
these bills will move through the legislative process."

will pass

Vote counts
Inside U.S. Trade, 9-23
LOBBYISTS: MORE THAN 200 REPUBLICANS MAY SUPPORT KOREA, COLOMBIA FTAS
SECTION: Vol. 29 No. 37
Business lobbyists believe that approximately 200 House Republicans
AND
-CA) is expected to oppose it.

FTA will pass – end game negotiations on political assurances under way
Lee, 9-23
Chi-dong, Yonhap, “ (LEAD) FTA should be ratified before S. Korean leader's trip: Rep. Ros-Lehtinen” http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/09/24/52/0301000000AEN20110924000400315F.HTML
 WASHINGTON, Sept. 23 (Yonhap
AND
our alliance with that key country."

A2 relations resilient

Failure to ratify breaks US-South Korea alliance
Lee, 8/30
(Columnist-Yonhap News, http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/08/30/52/0301000000AEN20110830000400315F.HTML)
WASHINGTON, Aug. 29 (Yonhap)
AND
commitment to Korea and Northeast Asia is declining."

Causes Korean war
Feulner 10
– President of the Heritage Foundation, Ph.D. from the University of Edinburgh (Edwin, 2/4. “The Status of the U.S.-Korea Relationship in 2010.” http://www.heritage.org/Research/Lecture/The-Status-of-the-US-Korea-Relationship-in-2010)

In 2010, we can expect
AND
to favor protectionist trade practices.

Extinction
Hayes 10 Peter Hayes, *Executive Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainable Development, AND, Michael Hamel-Green, Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts, Education and Human Development act Victoria University (1/5/10, Executive Dean at Victoria, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf

At worst, there is the possibility of
AND
that warrants priority consideration from the international community.

 The United States federal government should publicly declare that it won’t invade Yemen and pass legislation banning US invasion of Yemen. The United States federal government should extend a tax credit of 39 cents for every dollar invested by business, non-governmental organizations, and individuals that provide  for . 

 Tax credits expand foreign aid and avoid corruption and bureaucracy 

 Werker, 7 

 (Professor-Harvard Business School, 10/20,  

 While foreign aid … with American workers. 

 AT: PERM – BOTH 

 The plan deters private giving 

 Desai, 10 

 (Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Wolfensohn Center for Development at the Brookings Institution, and Associate Professor of International Development in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, 42 N.Y.U. J. Int'l L. & Pol. 1111, Summer) 

 The public economics … crowding-out effect. 

 Private philanthropy solves extinction 

 Baldwin, 2 

 (Fmr Director-United Way,  

 In the angry, poverty … our own survival. 

 AT: DOD/USAID COOP- FAILS/BAD 

 Interagency coordination in combat zones is fails 

 Irwin 9 (Lewis, Colonel, US army reserve, student for masters of strategic studies, “FILLING IRREGULAR WARFARE’S INTERAGENCY GAPS,” US Army War College, #38;doc=GetTRDoc.pdf) 

 The interagency process … led by State or USAID 

 2NC NO SOLVENCY DEFICIT 

 No solvency deficit—government provided aid already operates through backdoor privatization—ground work is all done through hired contractors and NGOs 

 Spence, 4 

 (Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law Stanford University,  

 Moreover, the agency’s … support rarely came. 

 Prefer our arguments-government aid is a self-perpetuating enterprise with a vested interest in avoiding genuine progress in order to protect their jobs 

 Parajuli, 10 

 (Columnist-The Concord Review, 7/8,  

 This brings us … in developing countries. 

 AT: SIGNAL/SOFT POWER 

 2. Government increases resentment 

 Paul, 6 

 (GOP Presidential Candidate,  

 Our annual foreign … from the IRS. 

 3. Private aid creates face-to-face contacts and reduces anger at the government 

 Valentine, 1 

 Free Market Columnist,  

 A laissez-faire approach … as their own citizens. 

 Face to face contacts outweigh 

 Lawton, 10 

 (Lt. Governor-Wisconsin,  

 In an era of increasing … culturally aware communities. 

 AT: EXPERTISE 

1. Private organizations have unmatched knowledge of recipient countries and avoid mismanagement 

 Mercer, 5 

 Contributor-Antiwar.com,  

 Consequently, private charities … as they are unethical. 

 2. USAID technical expertise is a myth—no capacity 

 Cohen, 9 

 (New America Foundation,  

 The capacities of … of technical staff. 

 AT: NO OVERSIGHT 

 No oversight and accountability issues-private giving harnesses new technologies that allow innovative monitoring methods 

 Kapur, 10 

 (Director, Center for Advanced Study of India, and Madan Lal Sobti Professor for the Study of Contemporary India, University of Pennsylvania, 42 N.Y.U. J. Int'l L. & Pol. 1143, Summer) 

 In the marketplace, competition … a formal evaluation. 

 Boehner is effectively blocking the China currency bill now 

 Tan, 10/27 

 Tan Yingzi, China Daily staff writer, 10/27/11, Currency measure prompts warnings from US officials, 

Though 

many 

Republicans 

brought to a vote

. 

 House Republicans are falling in line with Boehner on China but backlash causes them to override him 

 Hughes, 10/6 

 Siobhan Hughes, Dow Jones Newswire, 10/6/11, UPDATE:On Currency Bill, Rank-And-File Republicans Buck GOP Leaders , online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111006-713089.html 

The 

U.S. 

Senate 

 his spokesman said. 

 House Republicans will buck Boehner over foreign aid spending—undermines his agenda and ability corral their votes 

 Hulse, 11 

 Carl Hulse, NY Times, 2/9/11, House Republicans Battle Turmoil in Their Ranks, 

Under pressure to make 

 as a productive lunch. 

 China currency bill causes a trade war, economic collapse, and US-China war 

 Martin, 10/7 

 Patrick Martin, WSWS, 10/7/11, Anti-China rhetoric raises threat of war, www.wsws.org/articles/2011/oct2011/pers-o07.shtml 

 The White House 

 close 

economic ties. 

 China conflict goes nuclear 

 Glaser, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs – George Washington University, ‘11 

 (Charles, “Will China’s Rise Lead to War?” Foreign Affairs Vol. 9 Iss. 2, March/April) 

 THE PROSPECTS for avoiding 

 U.S.-Chinese relations. 

 1nr 

 House GOP wants the bill—its splitting Republicans—Boehner’s ability to contain them is critical 

 Chaddock, 10/13 

 Gail Russell Chaddock, Christian Science Monitor, 10/13/11, Why China 'trade war' bill is tying House Republicans in knots, lexis 

The bill 

to punish China 

 to pass the bill. 

 Spending is the GOP freshman’s issue—they will control Boehner post-plan 

 Bewley, writer for the Gannett Washington Bureau, 8/5/2011 

 [Elizabeth, “TN freshmen held sway in debt debate,” Nexis] 

 Some say they 

 balanced-budget amendment. 

 He won’t veto 

 Emmott, 10/24 

 Bill Emmott, The Times, UK, 10/24/11, Why we should fear America's China-bashing; , lexis 

 May you live 

China-basher too

. 

 China will retaliate 

 Andrew Roth, Vice President of Government Affairs at Club for Growth, 10/13/11,Protectionism Could Engender Chinese Retaliation, 

 Whether this legislation 

 it's too late. 

 Lack of communication ensures escalation—crushes the economy 

 Peter Apps, Forbes Political Risk Correspondent, 12/22/2009, FACTBOX-Key 2010 global political risks to markets,  

 The United States and 

expect sparks to fly

. 

 Boehner is blocking China currency legislation 

 Xinhua, staff writer, 10/28/11, Boehner maintains stance on yuan bill , 

 U.S. House of Representatives 

 World Trade Organization (WTO). 

 Boehner holding back China currency legislation now 

 WSJ, 10/26 

 Wall Street Journal, 10/26/11, Getting Tough With China (the Right Way) , online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204644504576652720545821438.html 

 So it appears that 

 anti-China 

tariffs. 

 Boehner blocking rank-and-file Republicans from passing the bill 

 Palmer 10/25 

 Doug Palmer, Reuters, 10/25/11, WRAPUP 2-US Republicans ask Obama to lead on China currency, 

 The Obama administration 

 control the Senate. 

 Boehner blocking effectively now 

 Palmer 10/25 

 Doug Palmer, Reuters, 10/25/11, WRAPUP 2-US Republicans ask Obama to lead on China currency, 

 Representative Sander Levin 

 for a vote, he said. 

 Boehner key to kill the bill 

 Xinhua, 10/13/11, Controversial U.S. currency bill risks trade war: Boehner, news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-10/13/c_131188005.htm 

 The 

prospects of the bill 

 legislation a "dangerous" move. 

 Boehner blocking china bashing 

 Reuters, 10/25 

 Barack Obama under pressure to lay out China strategy, economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/barack-obama-under-pressure-to-lay-out-china-strategy/articleshow/10482053.cms 

 The hearing with US 

 exports and sales. 

 House is blocking it 

 ICTSD, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, 10/19, US, EU Press for China Currency Revaluation, 

Tensions have been 

 eventually become law.

 Iran sees the plan as a threat to the regime 

 Thaler, Senior Defense Research Analyst – RAND, ‘9 

 (David, “Dangerous But Not Omnipotent,” #38;doc=GetTRDoc.pdf) 

 Aside from the … a velvet revolution.21 

 Causes a domestic crackdown – Iran reacts proportionally to increased democracy aid 

 Thaler, Senior Defense Research Analyst – RAND, ‘9 

 (David, “Dangerous But Not Omnipotent,” #38;doc=GetTRDoc.pdf) 

 Tehran’s perception of … of the hijab.42 

 Incremental reform solves Iranian democracy now – new crackdown crushes the Green Movement 

 Posch, Senior Research Fellow – European Union Institute for Security Studies, Ph.D. Iranian History – Bamberg University, ‘10 

 (Walter, “A Last Chance for Iran’s Reformists? The “Green Struggle” Reconsidered,” Working Paper, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, March) 

 To sum up, with … emerged violent groups; 

 Successful transition key to stop Iranian power projection 

 Berman, vice president – American Foreign Policy Council, ‘10 

 (Ilan, “How to Support the Struggle for Iran's Soul,” Middle East Quarterly

Spring, p. 53-61) 

 Today, Iranian politics … outcome more likely. 

 Turns the whole aff 

 Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June,  

 As it struggles to … and game-changing war. 

1nc t - covert

Interpretation and Violation – Democracy Assistance can’t be covert

Toonstra, 10

[Dick, Director - European Parliament Office for Promotion of Parliamentary Democracy, “Getting Acquainted: Setting the Stage for Democracy Assistance‖

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/pdf/oppd/Page_8/getting_acquainted_web.pdf, p.7-8, accessed 5-17-11, ]

 Thus, key characteristics of ….democratisation, in particular socio-economic assistance

Vote Neg

A) Limits – Infinite number of actors and actions make covert affs uniquely unlimiting. Also nearly impossible to predict because most of the literature on covert action is classified

B) Ground – Core neg disads are all based on perception and reaction to the plan – covert affs make it impossible to get topic-specific links, which force the debate to run to the worst generics like Heidigger and Consult

1nc t - country

[A] Interpretation: Assistance must go to a country – they didn’t put one in the plan

“For” means in support of

Oxford Dictionary 2011

[Oxford University Press, http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/for?region=us]

for(for)

Pronunciation:/fôr, fər/

preposition

1 in support of or in favor of (a person or policy):

they voted for independence in a referendum

“Libya” refers to the government

Dictionary.com 2011

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/Libya

Lib·y·a   [lib-ee-uh]  Show IPA

noun

1. Ancient Geography . the part of N Africa W of Egypt.

2. Italian, Libia. a republic in N Africa between Tunisia and Egypt: formerly a monarchy 1951–69. 5,648,359; 679,400 sq. mi. (1,759,646 sq. km). Capital:  Tripoli.

[C] Prefer our interpretation:

1.    Ground – technical assistance everywhere can claim infinite adv’s

2.    Predictability – defining “democracy assistance” alone is useless. Must read it in the context of the country because each is different.

[D] T is a voting issue, or the aff would read a new indisputable case every debate

1nc coercion

1. Foreign aid is government coercion and destroys liberty

DiLorenzo, professor of economics at Loyola College, 1/6/2005

(Thomas, “A Foreign Aid Disaster in the Making,” http://www.mises.org/fullstory.aspx?Id=1715)

Politicians are bound to politicize this disaster, ….to the recipient country’s central government.

2. Moral side constraint

Petro, Wake Forest Professor in Toledo Law Review, 1974

(Sylvester, Spring, page 480)

However, one may still insist, echoing Ernest Hemingway - "I believe in only one thing: liberty."  And it is always well to bear in mind David Hume's observation: "It is seldom that liberty of any …invasion of freedom must be emphatically identified and resisted with undying spirit.

1nc kritik - imperialism

Democracy assistance creates an imperial relation to the Middle East that prevents indigenous democracy

Slater, Dept of Geography – Loughborough University, ‘6

(David, “Imperial powers and democratic imaginations,” Third World Quarterly Vol. 27, No. 8)

But how do these varied points relate to the ….

than any other Latin American leader.

Threat rhetoric mixed with democracy promotion destroys US cred in the Mid East – turns case

Vincent Boudreau, CUNY director of the Colin Powell Center for Policy Studies, 2007, "Security and Democracy: Process and Outcome in a New Policy Context," Democratization, Volume 14, Issue 2

Articles by Thomas Ambrosio and by ….

demonstrate their anger than it is to pacify them.

Imperialism ensures extinction

Santos, LA editor and writer, 7/31/’6

(Juan, “Apocalypse No!” )

It's simple. And obvious. We find ourselves ….new Reich.

Their other option is Armageddon.

Alternative: reject securitized democracy assistance.

Calls for external intervention strip political agency – resistance should start as a bottom-up movement

Bayat, Professor of Sociology and Middle Eastern studies – U Illinois, ‘9

(Asef, Life as politics: how ordinary people change the Middle East, p. 2-7)

Given these constraints, an alternative …..

of June 12, 2009) pushing for democratic reform.

You should vote no – the role of the ballot is to resist post-political administration that insists on “expert knowledge,” but embrace the revolutionary power of democracy

Slavoj Zizek, International Director @ the Birkbeck Institute for the Humanities, 2010 “Living in the End Times”

But can Europe deliver such a thing? There …

but amounts to a demand for more Europe.48

1nc politics

Boehner is effectively blocking the China currency bill now

Tan, 10/27

Tan Yingzi, China Daily staff writer, 10/27/11, Currency measure prompts warnings from US officials,

Though many Republicans joined the ….legislation to be brought to a vote.

House Republicans are falling in line with Boehner on China but backlash causes them to override him

Hughes, 10/6

Siobhan Hughes, Dow Jones Newswire, 10/6/11, UPDATE:On Currency Bill, Rank-And-File Republicans Buck GOP Leaders , online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111006-713089.html

The U.S. Senate took another vote Thursday ….

discharge petition, his spokesman said.

House Republicans will buck Boehner over foreign aid spending—undermines his agenda and ability corral their votes

Hulse, 11

Carl Hulse, NY Times, 2/9/11, House Republicans Battle Turmoil in Their Ranks,

Under pressure to make deeper spending ….on Wednesday for what was described as a productive lunch.

China currency bill causes a trade war, economic collapse, and US-China war

Martin, 10/7

Patrick Martin, WSWS, 10/7/11, Anti-China rhetoric raises threat of war, www.wsws.org/articles/2011/oct2011/pers-o07.shtml

The White House, together with much ….

because of their close economic ties.

China conflict goes nuclear

Glaser, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs – George Washington University, ‘11

(Charles, “Will China’s Rise Lead to War?” Foreign Affairs Vol. 9 Iss. 2, March/April)

THE PROSPECTS for avoiding intense ….

general poisoning of U.S.-Chinese relations.

1nc france cp

France should provide covert technical assistance for legitimate elections, including promotion of legislative elections prior to national elections.

Key to French leadership—reconstruction of Libya uniquely important to Sarkozy

Mikail, 10/11

(Senior researcher at FRIDE. Prior to joining the organisation, he was senior researcher on Middle East and North Africa and on Water Issues at the Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques (IRIS),  http://www.eurasiareview.com/11102011-france-and-the-arab-spring-an-opportunistic-quest-for-influence-analysis/)

All this demonstrates that France will only ….

part of an overarching EU strategy.

Sarkozy has banked his re-election on leadership in Libya---a foreign policy victory is crucial to rebuild his popularity domestically

Schofield, 3/25

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12863616

If the art of politics is about seizing ….

Benghazi as well as Paris, will be hailed as the liberator.

Sarkozy win key to block Turkish EU entry

Simsek, 10

(Columnist-Southeast European Times, 4/20, http://setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/mobile/en_GB/features/setimes/features/2010/04/20/feature-02)

Sarkozy stands between Turkey, EU

….as a bridge to the Muslim world.

Turkish entry kills the EU

Rhein, 11

(2/24, uring the 1980s and  1990s,  he served successively as chef de cabinet to the Commission VP in charge of external relations and director responsible for the Mediterrranean and Arab world & economic  policy at the “Mediterranean Academy for Diplomatic Studies” in Malta, http://rhein.blogactiv.eu/2011/02/24/turkey-and-the-future-of-eu-enlargement/)

The Turkish entry into the EU would be the ….these outweigh the inconveniences?

Extinction

Dunnis, 11

(8/18, Australian consul in East Timor, http://lawcrimepolitics.com/financial-storm-gathers-weather)

We surely would not want to ….outcome to be prevented at all cost.

adv 2

No spillover from AQIM to overall AQ

Libya not key to AQIM

Goita 11, Professor at the Alioune Blondin Beye Peacekeeping School in Bamako, Mali, (Modibo, "West Africa’s Growing Terrorist Threat: Confronting AQIM’s Sahelian Strategy," February, )

 A sustained upsurge in the frequency of kidnappings, ….

strategy and uproot its expanding connections to Sahelian communities.

AQIM sucks

Stratfor 10, (“AQIM: The Devolution of al Qaeda's North African Node,” 8-10)

 From AQIM’s official founding in 2006 to the present, ….

tenuous position even more difficult.

No risk of nuclear terror

Mueller 10 (John, professor of political science at Ohio State, Calming Our Nuclear Jitters, Issues in Science and Technology, Winter, )

Politicians of all stripes preach …..a million or one in three billion per attempt.

Bioterror is ineffective, expensive, and inefficient

Stratfor 7, private intelligence agency, analyzes geopolitical trends, 12/21/ (“Bioterrorism: Sudden Death Overtime?,” http://www2.stratfor.com/analysis/bioterrorism_sudden_death_overtime)

In this season of large college bowl games and ….deadly — than air horns filled with creepy bioterror.

adv 1

Stable transition now

Whitaker 8-22, Columnist for The Guardian, (Brian, "After Gaddafi, let's hope for the best in Libya," 2011, )

The next few months in Libya ….

military, gaining the upper hand.

No escalation

Fettweis, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College, ‘7

(Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98)

Without the US presence, a second ….

interest is far more likely than outright warfare.

Empirics prove

Kevin Drum, Staff Writer for the Washington Monthly, 9/9/’7

()

Having admitted, however, that ….decade. No regional conflagration.

2. Prolif inevitable – getting nukes is rational and can’t be dissuaded

Roth, 7

[Ariel Ilan, Associate Director of National Security Studies at the Johns Hopkins University’s Krieger School of Arts and Sciences.  "The Inevitability of a Nuclear Tomorrow: Iran, North Korea and the Rational Desire for Nuclear Weapons" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association 48th Annual Convention, Hilton Chicago, CHICAGO, IL, USA, Feb 28, 2007 ]

The case of Israel is particularly ….our more uncertain and more scary future

No impact and the US can track them down

New York Times 11, ("Experts Fear Looted Libyan Arms May Find Way to Terrorists," 3-3, )

In the popular imagination, heat-seeking …. in 2003 from Saddam Hussein’s storehouses in Iraq.

And they’ve already been stolen – aff can’t solve

CNN 9-7, "Libyan missiles looted," 2011, security.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/07/exclusive-libyan-missiles-looted/

TRIPOLI, Libya (CNN) - A potent stash of …

are the surface-to-air missiles."

African conflict won’t draw in others

Morenike Taire, April 9, 2004, Vanguard (Nigeria), Global News Wire – Asia Africa Intelligence Wire, p. Lexis

Defining our role may not have ….be calm, cool and collected.

War inevitable – warming

Keating, associate editor – Foreign Policy, ‘10

(Joshua, “Africa Heats Up,” Foreign Policy, Iss. 178, March/April)

SCIENTISTS HAVE LONG WARNED ….

temperature increase on civil war incidence."

UN fails and not key to global problems—coalitions solves

Haas, 10

Richard Haas, CFR President, 1/5/2010, The Case for Messy Multilateralism, http://www.cfr.org/publication/21132/case_for_messy_multilateralism.html?breadcrumb=%2Fissue%2F42%2Fun

But to acknowledge that we are all ///

than what we are used to.

6 degree warming inevitable

AP 9 (Associated Press, Six Degree Temperature Rise by 2100 is Inevitable: UNEP, September 24, )

Earth's temperature is likely to jump….about a foot every 20 to 25 years.

Stabilizing Libya will bring down oil prices

DT, Daniel’s Training market analysis firm, 9/13/’11

()

"Crude markets continue to exhibit ….

production is easier said than done.

High oil prices key to the Russian economy

Andrew E. Kramer 11, New York Times, “Russia Cashes In on Oil Supply Anxiety”, March 8,

Whatever the eventual outcome ….to an outbreak of social unrest.

Global nuclear conflict

David, Prof Poli Sci – Johns Hopkins University, ‘99

(Steven, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb)

AT NO TIME since the civil war of ….would follow a Russian civil war.

http://deaconsource.wikispaces.com/

All stuff from Harvard and afterwards will be there ^. For any pre-Harvard requests/other stuff, email markoffa@gmail.com

Thanks!

Neg: Georgetown AM

Round #5  Tournament: Wake

Vs Team: Northwestern BK

Judge: Ryan Galloway

Off Case Args:

T – DA = Material Transfer

Inherency

Unemployment Politics DA

Saudi Relations DA

Condition military aid pressure CP

Imperialism K

Case Args:

Say No

Seabasing Turn

Assorted impact D

Block Strategy:

Seabasing DA

Saudi DA

Assorted Impact D

2nr Strategy:

Neg:Gtown AM

Round #4  Tournament:shirley

Vs Team: Whitman HZ

Judge: Klante

Off Case Args:

Saudi DA

Asia Dip-Cap DA

Unemployment Politics DA

Carter CP

Pressure CP

T – Lappin

Case Args:

Say No/Solvency Turns

Case Defense

Block Strategy:

Say No/Solvency Turns

Carter CP

Asia DA

2nr Strategy:

Asia DA

Say No/Solvency Turns

Neg: Georgetown AM

Round # 2 Tournament: Shirley

Vs Team: MSU BS

Judge: Frappier

Off Case Args:

ASPEC

T nmust be gov to gov

Saudi Relations DA

Politics: underemploymentn insurance

Liberalism DA

Private CP

Advantage CP –India do the plan

Case Args:

SCAF backlash DA

Plan = status quo

Lot of impact defense

Kiss of death

Block Strategy:

Case (SCAF)

Saudi da

Adv cp

2nr Strategy:

Case

Scaf

The United States Federal Government should expand the U.S.-India women’s empowerment initiative beyond Afghanistan, reinvigorate its cooperation with India in the U.N. Democracy Fund and the Asia-Pacific Democracy Partnership, and explore whether U.S. and Indian foreign aid could be jointly channeled through the Millennium Challenge Corporation. The Republic of India should provide substantial political party training for Egypt.

Solves cooperation

Richard L. Armitage et al 10, Deputy Secretary of State from March 2001 to February 2005, “Natural Allies”, October,

Twelve years ago, then-Prime Minister … and to better promote reforms in recipient countries.

Extension of unemployment benefits will pass now

Needham, 11/6

(Columnist-The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/801-economy/192017-lawmakers-face-heated-battle-over-extending-jobless-benefits)

Congress is expected to pass a … a possible bumpy road to the finish.

Democracy assistance drains political capital

McLaughlin, contributing writer – The Washington Diplomat, 5/31/’11

(Seth, “Key Foreign Policy Players Try to Master Capitol Hill,” The Washington Diplomat)

But it's not just politicos in Washington … operating expenses were trimmed by $39 million.

Political capital is key—it’s a top priority now but a fight on another issue kills it

Newhauser, 11/7

(Roll Call Staff, http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_54/Democrats-Wary-of-Unemployment-Loss-210055-1.html?pos=hme)

Wary of the cost-cutting mood on … extending unemployment benefits.

Loss of benefits kills the economy

NELP, 10/11

(National Employment Law Project, Non-Partisan Advocacy Group, http://www.nelp.org/page/-/UI/2011/NELP_UI_Extension_Report_2011.pdf?nocdn=1)

Federal Jobless Benefits Provide a …renew federal unemployment benefits. 

Short-term economic backsliding now causes a depression

Isidore, 11

(Financial Correspondent-CNN Money, 8/10, http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/10/news/economy/double_dip_recession_economy/index.htm)

Another recession could be even … no policy effort to counteract it. 

Extinction

Kemp 10

Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center, served in the White House under Ronald Reagan, special assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs on the National Security Council Staff, Former Director, Middle East Arms Control Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010, The East Moves West: India, China, and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, p. 233-4

The second scenario, called … two-thirds of the planet’s population.

1NC OffCase: T, Coercion, Unemployment politics, saudi, private aid cp, india grabbag cp

mb

SCAF backlashes against US efforts to aid civil society in Egypt

Fadel, 11

(7/30, WP Columnist, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/military-stokes-xenophobia-in-egypt/2011/07/28/gIQAFnGjjI_story.html)

CAIRO — Facing mounting challenges and …. For any group seeking U.S. assistance, there’s a risk of being treated as suspect.

Means we lose access to the Suez Canal

Martini, 11

(Rand Associate, 8/25, Foreign Affairs, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2011/08/25/FA.html)

Yet the United States' capacity to advance … peace with Israel, an attitude that the United States can do little to change.

Collapses US leadership and causes Mideast war

Wood, 11

(Chief Military Correspondent-Politics Daily, 2/5, http://www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/)

Also suddenly at risk, along with Bright Star, …. And longer missions mean fewer daily sorties.

Nuclear war

Barnett, Professor, Warfare Analysis and Research Dept – U.S. Naval War College, 3/7/’11

(Thomas, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” )

Events in Libya are a further reminder for … deaths from state-based conflicts.

MB won’t take aid

Shahin, 11

(Prof-Religion, Conflict, and Peacebuilding-Notre Dame, 7/6, http://peacepolicy.nd.edu/2011/07/06/the-arab-spring-western-policy-choices/)

The newly appointed U.S. … share Western liberal values.

BUT – they’ll smear liberal groups that do – destroys their ability to balance the Brotherhood

Cook, 11

(Senior Fellow-Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/09/america_shouldnt_hijack_egypts_revolution)

The perception that certain groups … to triumph or fail on their own.

No impacts—Brotherhood rise arguments are rooted in myths of the Mubarak regime to keep power

Somander, 11

(Research Associate-Center for American Progress, 1/30, http://thinkprogress.org/security/2011/01/30/141496/oppostion-leader-elbaradei-threat-of-muslim-brotherhood-is-a-myth-lacking-one-iota-of-reality/)

Thousands of Egyptians continue to take to the … State Department’s terrorist list.

Egypt economy is structurally broken—plan can’t solve

Uri Dadush, et al, Carnegie Endownment, July 2011, Egypt’s Democratic Transition: Five Important Myths About the Economy and International Assistance,

Even with Egypt’s relatively robust … face difficulties accessing credit anyway.

Eurozone collapse now

Leo McKinstry, Express, staff writer, 9/15/11, IF IT WASN’T FOR THE EU, EUROPE WOULD BE DOING JUST FINE,

THE eurozone increasingly … project rather than an economic one. 

European war won’t escalate—the Cold War is over, dumbass

Manning, 2000

Robert A. Manning, senior fellow and director of Asian studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, 3/10/2000

We don't want to go any lower because … Russian targets, though no one will say so.

No escalation

Fettweis, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College, ‘7

(Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98)

Without the US presence, a second … common interest is far more likely than outright warfare.

Empirics prove

Kevin Drum, Staff Writer for the Washington Monthly, 9/9/’7

()

Having admitted, however, that the odds … for a decade. No regional conflagration.

india relations

This aff was meant for one round—the US and India are already cooperating on d

Chauhan, 7/21

(Columnist-Hindustan Times, http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/Print/723779.aspx)

India, US to take fair poll practices to W Asia, Africa

World's biggest democracies, India and …States is another step in this direction.

All of their ‘say yes’ evidence about India assumes this existing aid package---not political party assistance.

The plan breaks relations---India refuses aggressive democracy inclusion like the plan

Carothers, 11

(Carnegie Endowment Fellow, July, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Rising_democracies_final.pdf)

At the same time, India is suspicious …room to maneuver on other issues.16

6 degree warming inevitable

AP 9 (Associated Press, Six Degree Temperature Rise by 2100 is Inevitable: UNEP, September 24, )

Earth's temperature is likely to jump … seas should rise about a foot every 20 to 25 years.

No risk of Asia war – Peaceful China and multilateral institutions

Bitzinger and Desker, 9

[Richard, Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Barry, Dean of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies and Director of the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, “ Why East Asian War is Unlikely,” Survival | vol. 50 no. 6 | December 2008–January 2009

 The Asia-Pacific region can be … as some might argue.

energy

Their author is really talking about Indian cooperation with Gulf states---the ones they actually get oil from---they clipped most of the recs

Chandra, 11

http://www.cfr.org/india/united-states-india-shared-strategic-future/p25740

--MSU Card Ends Here

U.S. and Indian aid to transitioning Arab … stability of Iraq and Afghanistan.

2. Their solvency evidence assumes the status quo, not the plan---the MB asked for election monitors---not help building political parties.

India will invest in Iraq—solves energy security

Katakey, 2/10

(Bloomberg Reporter, http://www.iraq-enterprise.com/page1.cfm?ser=2633)

By Rakteem Katakey Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- India is building terminals to stockpile … output significantly.”

No war – even if crises occur, deterrence prevents them from escalating

Ganguly, 8

[Sumit Ganguly is a professor of political science and holds the Rabindranath Tagore Chair at Indiana University, Bloomington. “Nuclear Stability in South Asia,” International Security, Vol. 33, No. 2 (Fall 2008), pp. 45–70]

As the outcomes of the 1999 and 2001–02 crises show… into Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.87

Zero risk of protectionism

Ahearn 9 [Raymond, CRS Specialist in International Trade and Finance, “The Global Economic Downturn and Protectionism,” March 23, 2009, http://www.policyarchive.org/handle/10207/bitstreams/19395.pdf]

There are a number of reasons why the threat of a … and imposition of duties) surged in 2008.”13

Trade doesn’t solve war

John Mearsheimer 1, American professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, Tragedy of Great Power Politics, 370-371

There are problems with this perspective, too… other goal, including prosperity.

2NC Impact OV

Getting kicked out of the Suez destroys oil access – turns the India adv

Lompoc Record, 11

(2/2, http://www.lompocrecord.com/news/opinion/editorial/article_65b89d98-2e91-11e0-bf9b-001cc4c002e0.html

On the other hand, Obama and … that a steady supply of oil.

SCAF control solves the aff – ensures smooth transition better than liberal groups

Kurtz, senior fellow – Ethics and Public Policy Center, PhD social anthropology – Harvard, 9/6/’11

(Stanley, )

Trager wants the United States to … the liberal renaissance the revolution itself could not.

The plan fails without military relations

Schenker, director – Program on Arab Politics @ the Washington Institute, 7/25/’11

(David, "Egypt’s Enduring Challenges--Policy Recommendations”)

Given the uncertainties related to the … the $250 million appropriated last year.

Military backlash is most likely to cause transition failure

Dieh 9/27/11

 Jackson Diehl (born 1956) is the Deputy Editorial Page Editor of The Washington Post. He writes many of the paper's editorials on foreign affairs, helps to oversee the editorial and oped pages and authors a regular column.  Diehl joined the Washington Post as a reporter in 1978. From 1982 to 1992, he worked at the paper's foreign bureaus in Buenos Aires, Warsaw and Jerusalem. He was Foreign Editor and Assistant Managing Editor for Foreign news from 1992 to 1999, and oversaw the expansion of the Post's foreign staff. In 1999 he became Assistant Managing Editor for National news and oversaw coverage of the 2000 presidential election campaign.[1]  As an editor and columnist, Diehl advocated the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and the Post's early tenor of approval for the war has been attributed to his influence.[2] He has advocated democratic reforms and a tougher U.S. policy toward Egypt and other autocracies[3] and has criticised Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and the Bolivarian Revolution.[4]  Diehl was born in 1956 in San Antonio, Texas and received a B.A. from Yale University in 1978. He was named a finalist for the 2011 Pulitzer Prize for editorial writing for his commentary on Egypt. He received Inter-American Press Association Award for Interpretive Journalism in 1984 for his coverage of South America, and the Bob Considine Award of the Overseas Press Association in 1990 for his coverage of the 1989 revolution in Eastern Europe.[1]

The real threat in Egypt: Delayed democracy   … and foreign investors keep their distance.

2NC Israel Impact

Sinai is on the brink now – SCAF pressure puts it over the edge

Bhalla 10/13/11

 Reva Bhalla Director of Analysis STRATFOR  Reva Bhalla is STRATFOR’s Director of Analysis — a role that involves overseeing STRATFOR analysts, assessing the geopolitical impact of breaking developments, shaping forecasts and maintaining flows of intelligence from human and open sources.  Ms. Bhalla joined STRATFOR in 2004 as a Middle East and South Asia analyst and is an expert in the MESA region. In addition to covering issues in the MESA region, she has recently shifted to directing STRATFOR's Latin America operations.  Ms. Bhalla has been featured in and cited by numerous newspapers and broadcasts, including Bloomberg, CNN, The Associated Press, National Public Radio, Al Jazeera, FOX News, The O’Reilly Factor, Haaretz, The New York Times, RT, The Hindustan Times, Business Week and The San Francisco Chronicle.  She also represents STRATFOR at a variety of political and security conferences in the United States and abroad.  Ms. Bhalla’s educational background includes a bachelor’s degree in political science from the University of Texas and a master’s degree from the Security Studies program of the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C.

There is no question that Egypt and Israel are working … the firm guarantor of the Egyptian state.

Nuclear war

Zitun 9/5/11

staff writer, quoting Senior IDF officer

 IDF general: Likelihood of regional war growing  … for publication by censorship officials.  

2NC Turns Case

Moving against the SCAF now fails---ensures they crackdown on civil society

POMED, 9/26

http://pomed.org/blog/2011/09/pomed-notes-“rule-of-law-in-egypt-challenges-for-democracy”.html/

POMED Notes: “Rule of Law in Egypt: Challenges for Democracy”

Steve McInerney focused on civil society and civil … populace, it didn’t make sense to confront them yet.

AT: Aid Now

US changed their aid policy to appease the SCAF

De Los Reyes, 11

(Staff Writer-Devex, 8/16,

http://www.devex.com/en/blogs/development-assistance-under-obama/in-egypt-compromise-on-us-funds-for-ngos-raises-fears-of-government-control-2)

After months of standing its ground on its decision …. employees over the distribution of funds.

USAID will administer all aid through the government now

Alyoum 11

(Independent Egyptian Media Org, 8/16, http://www.jasminereport.org/?p=406)

Abdel Aziz Hegazi, president of the … agenda cannot be solved by simply changing staff.

2NC Uniqueness – Must Read

We control top-level uniqueness – recent violence solidified SCAF control – they’ll contain instability as long as they’re not challenged

El Amrani 10/19/11

 ssandr El Amrani is a freelance journalist and commentator. An editor of the now defunct Cairo Times and founder of Cairo magazines, he has lived in Cairo since 2000, writing about Egypt and the Middle East for a wide range of UK and US publications.  Today Issandr spends his time between Cairo and Rabat, where he was born. After a stint as the International Crisis Group's North Africa analyst in 2007-2009 he has returned to journalism and political consulting. He was the Cairo correspondent for Middle East International and writes for the Economist, the Financial Times, the London Review of Books, Foreign Policy, The National, Bidoun and other publications.  He also writes a fortnightly column at Egypt's best-selling private newspaper, al-Masri al-Youm, and the Abu Dhabi-based The National.  Issandr also regularly appears as a commentator on Middle Eastern affairs on television, notably on al-Jazeera English, and conducts private consulting on the politics of the Middle East. He has contributed to several books on politics and culture in the Middle East. 

So Maspero cristallized the rejection of …) to let SCAF get on with things so that it can be disbanded.

2NC AT: SCAF Unsustainable

Plan makes the SCAF more popular – that’s Fadel.

Public opinion is key to SCAF control – they’ll smear the plan to rally support – makes their control permanent

Colvin, Australian journalist and broadcaster, and Cambanis, American journalist and Middle East specialist, 10/21/’11

(Mark and Thanassis, “Egypt's army hardens its line,” )

Libya may well end up with an … what is great about the Egyptian nation.

SCAF will control security issues

FT, 10/20/’11
 ()

The TV show discussed the length of … also want some kind of veto power over national security issues.

Turns Case – MB

SCAF will contain MB power

Satloff, 11

(Exec director of The Washington Institute, 4/13/11, The Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic Current, and Prospects for Post-Mubarak Egypt: An Early Assessment, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC07.php?CID=569)

I believe deep concern about the … political power through the ballot box.

Turns Case – Instability

SCAF contains instability

Cook, senior fellow – CFR, 10/18/’11

(Steven, “Media Conference Call: Unrest and Insecurity in Egypt”)

There's also the possibility, however, that … through with these planned elections.


2NC AT: Relations Resilient

SCAF can turn away from the US –even if they don’t close the Suez any realignment kills US leadership

Schenker, director – Program on Arab Politics @ The Washington Institute, 7/18/’11

(David, Institute "Egypt’s Enduring Challenges as it Faces the United States,” =)

In an effort to reinvigorate Egypt’s … at odds with the United States.

The US has no leverage

David Schenker 9-15, Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, “Washington's Limited Influence in Egypt”,

News from Egypt is not good. … best advised to prioritize judiciously.

Military cares more about controling the transition than military ties

Schenker, 9/27

(Fellow-The Washington Institute, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3399)

Since the revolt, Washington … stature or perquisites.

2nc too soon

They obviously can’t solve on time – candidates already registered

Reuters 9/27/2011

[http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/27/us-egypt-election-idUSTRE78Q42T20110927]

Egypt's parliamentary election … and others by individuals.

Aid won’t arrive in time

Thomas Carothers, Carnegie Endowment VP for Studies, Democracy and Rule of Law Program and Carnegie Europe Director, October 2009, "Revitalizing Democracy Assistance: The Challenge of USAID,"

USAID’s basic operating procedures—…when basic circumstances change.

That’s a consensus in Egypt

Middle East Reporter 8/16/2011

[lexis]

Liberal political groups and a traditional … of a new constitution if they win a majority in elections.

no eu impact

The security environment has substantially changed

NRDC, 2005,

 http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/euro/euro_es.pdf

European security conditions have changed … States in a crisis than to increase the readiness level.

Ext-Relations Turn

High profile joint efforts cause a backlash against democracy

Carothers, 11

(Carnegie Endowment Fellow, July, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Rising_democracies_final.pdf)

This analysis points to several recommendations (… ways that Brazil does not deem appropriate.”66

India will view the plan as the US ignoring India’s development needs

Carothers, 11

(Carnegie Endowment Fellow, July, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Rising_democracies_final.pdf)

Second, keep an open mind with regard … to Western policies, it is unlikely to progress far.

india says no

India says no

Bhasin, 11

(Visiting Scholar at Center for South Asia Studies, UC Berkeley and a Fellow with Global India Foundation, 3/16, )

Response to the protests in the Middle East …strategic interests were involved.)

asia

US won’t be dragged into an Asian war

Jeffrey Record, professor of strategy and international security at the Air War College at Maxwell AFB, senior research fellow at the Center for Int’l Strategy, Technology, and Policy at the Georgia Institute of Technology, PhD from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced Int’l Studies, Winter ‘1, Aerospace Power Journal, v15 i4, “Thinking about China and War,” p. InfoTrac OneFile

Chinese military action against Asian … the South Asian nuclear-war scare of 1999.

energy adv

Conclusion of their solvency evidence is talking about other countries, which makes sense because Egypt has no oil

Michael Ratner 11, analyst in energy policy at the CRS, “Implications of Egypt’s Turmoil on Global Oil and Natural Gas Supply”, May 4,

The change in Egypt’s government will likely …canal and pipeline if necessary.

RF

This means there’s a low threshold for alt causes to outweigh – here’s their author

Grieboski 11 (Joseph K., Founder and Chair – The Institute on Religion and Public Policy, “U.S. Foreign Policy and International Religious Expression”, CQ Congressional Testimony, 6-3, Lexis)

The U.S. too often deals with human rights … the hassle of internal budget concerns.

No spillover – Obama, Congress, and State Department will all ignore IRF after the plan

Farr, 9/23

Thomas F. Farr, a former American diplomat, is Visiting Associate Professor of Religion and World Affairs in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and a Senior Fellow at the Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, & World Affairs at Georgetown University, Preventing Another Attack: International Religious Freedom, 9/23/11,

Given the evidence that religious …body, unable to drive U.S. policy.

Congressional cuts prove nobody will stand up for IRF

Otero, 9/22

Jordan Otero, Washington Times, 9/22/11, Freedom of religion panel about to expire,

The author of a bill to extend the life … date, adding, “I’d be shocked if USCIRF survived.”

The plan would overburden the IRF Office – destroys religious freedom promotion

Grieboski 11 (Joseph K., Founder and Chair – The Institute on Religion and Public Policy, “U.S. Foreign Policy and International Religious Expression”, CQ Congressional Testimony, 6-3, Lexis)

In addition to the new responsibilities …. significantly more work under HR 1856.

IRF promotion ineffective—countries reject US action

Farr, 9

Thomas Farr, Visiting Professor of Religion and Foreign Affairs at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, 2009, THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION AND AMERICA'S INTERNATIONAL RELIGIOUS FREEDOM POLICY, Harvard Journal of Law & Public Policy, 01934872, Summer2009, Vol. 32, Issue 3

Despite the failure of the CPC methodology, … in the forward strategy of freedom.

saudi

Saudi prolif outweighs –

Quick regional prolif ensures accidents and miscalc – that’s Edelman. 

Extinction

Toon, chair – Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences – Colorado University, 4/19/’7

(Owen B, climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf)

To an increasing extent, people are … present scenarios and physical outcomes.

Turns the whole aff – causes preemptive Israel strike, Egypt/Israel war, and nuclear arms race

Bowman, 8

(International Affairs Fellow at the CFR, February, Chain Reaction: Avoiding a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CPRT-110SPRT39674/html/CPRT-110SPRT39674.htm)

Of any Middle Eastern state, Saudi Arabia … Iran by pursuing a nuclear weapon.

2nc at: won’t prolif

Saudi is on the edge now – strategic divergence on the Arab Spring causes them to buy weapons from Pakistan

Rozen, foreign policy correspondent – Politico, 4/18/’11

(Laura, http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theenvoy/20110418/ts_yblog_theenvoy/optimism-for-arab-spring-fades-in-face-of-complicated-u-s-saudi-alliance)

Riyadh, alarmed by the Obama … accused of being Iranian agents."

Recent moves prove the risk is high

Sokolski, 11

(2/8, Exec Director-The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, http://www.tnr.com/article/82995/nuclear-weapons-middle-east-obama-mubarak?page=0,1)

Jordan currently lacks any major … for securing U.S. nuclear cooperation.

And, statements by insiders

WSJ, 10/17/’11

()

Iran "is a direct and imminent … we'll have to do it ourselves."

Only recent evidence applies

Takeyh, 6/9

(Senior Fellow-Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/opinion/09iht-edtakeyh09.html?_r=3)

For nearly 60 years, Saudi Arabia … contemplated in the House of Saud.

2nc at: can’t prolif

They can get a weapon from Pakistan – that’s Edelman. Or other places

Edelman, distinguished fellow – Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, ‘11

(Eric S, “The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran,” Foreign Affairs, January/February)

Meanwhile, states outside the Middle East could … Game, with unpredictable consequences.

And it causes nuke terror

Blank, 3

(Intl Affairs Analyst & Consultant, 11/7, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EK07Ak01.html)

Obviously, that kind of transformation of the proliferation … becomes that much more real.

Extinction

Ayson 10, Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (“After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear … would probably still meet with a devastating response.

Credibility doesn’t solve the impact – plan undermines security assurances

Al-Rashid 11, M.A. Candidate in Security Studies at Georgetown University, Council on Foreign Relations, New America Foundation, (Salman, "The Kingdom and Nuclear Energy: The Proliferation Contingency," August 5, alajnabee.wordpress.com/2011/08/05/the-kingdom-and-nuclear-energy-the-worrisome-contingency/)

 A Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) report … that success with a weary Saudi Arabia.

2nc link wall – egypt (mb)

They think the Brotherhood is a threat to the regime

NYT, 11

(5/28, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/28/world/middleeast/28saudi.html)

In Egypt, where the revolution has already …,” said Abdulaziz Algasim, a Saudi lawyer.

They’ll do anything to stop MB rise

LA Times, 6/19

("U.S., Saudis in Mideast tug of war; Quest for greater influence intensifies as uprisings in the region further drive a wedge between the longtime allies," Lexis)

Saudis are fighting … legitimacy to the Saudi monarchy.

uq

Cooperation now

LA Times 10-22, "U.S.: Death of Saudi crown prince won't hurt ties," 2011, latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2011/10/us-saudi-arabia-crown-prince-relationship.html

REPORTING FROM WASHINGTON -- The death of the heir apparent to the … to the United States in the coming years.”

US pivoting to Asia now—Obama needs to prove its his diplomatic priority

Sheridan 11/12

Greg Sheridan, The Australian, 11/12/11, Big guns united on Asia strategy,

This was underlined by a powerful … of US strategic commitment dossier.

Democracy assistance costs capital and deprioritizes other issues

Singh 11

Michael Singh, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 4/2/11, Democratic Change in the Arab Region: State Policy and the Dynamics of Civil Society,

While top-down pressure on … promotion policy truly resides.

That tradeoff kills his Asia visit—capital is key—the impact is the economy and Asia stability

Bower, 10/27

Ernest Bower, CSIS Southeast Asia Program Director, 10/27/11, Why November Matters for Obama, the-diplomat.com/2011/10/27/why-november-matters-for-obama/

US President Barack Obama and …the price of greatness is responsibility.’

Nuclear war

Campbell et al 8 (Kurt M, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Dr. Campbell served in several capacities in government, including as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asia and the Pacific, Director on theNational Security Council Staff, previously the Chief Executive Officer and co-founder of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), served as Director of the Aspen Strategy Group and the Chairman of the Editorial Board of the Washington Quarterly, and was the founder and Principal of StratAsia, a strategic advisory company focused on Asia, rior to co-founding CNAS, he served as Senior Vice President, Director of the International Security Program, and the Henry A. Kissinger Chair in National Security Policy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, doctorate in International Relation Theory from Oxford, former associate professor of public policy and international relations at the John F. Kennedy School of Government and Assistant Director of the Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, member of Council on Foreign Relations and  International Institute for Strategic Studies, “The Power of Balance: America in iAsia” June 2008, )

Asian investment is also at … or poor decision-making.

trip key

A substantive and focused trip is critical to assure a skeptical Asia that the US is committed—that is key to effective diplomacy and Asia stability

Lohman and Warshaw 10/10

Walter Lohman, Robert Warshaw, Heritage Foundation, 10/10/11, President Obama’s Pacific Swing: Commitment Means More Than Just Showing the Flag,

On November 11–19, President Barack … perfectly suited to do that. Now it is up to him.

impacts

Triggers a massive arms race

Kemp 10

Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center, served in the White House under Ronald Reagan, special assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs on the National Security Council Staff, Former Director, Middle East Arms Control Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2010, The East Moves West: India, China, and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, p. 233-5

A third scenario, Asian Balance of Power, …—particularly nuclear terrorism.

Goes nuclear

Cirincione 2k (Joseph, director of the Non-Proliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Foreign Policy, “The Asian Nuclear Reaction Chain,” 3/22/00, lexis)

The blocks would fall quickest and … of a nuclear weapon since 1945.

uniqueness

No alt causes—only Asia focus now

Johnson 10/11

Keith Johnson, Wall Street Journal, 10/11/11, Clinton Says 'Center of Gravity' Shifting to Asia-Pacific , online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203537304577030582124989756.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

The Obama administration will double-… start of a weeklong Asian tour.

Obama shifting focus to East Asia from the Middle East

Fisher 10/10

Max Fisher, The Atlantic Associate Editor, 10/10/11, 5 Lessons of U.S. Plan for a Permanent Military Presence in Australia,

(2) U.S. focusing away from Middle … -- to set America's military emphasis in East Asia.

Asia focus now

Steve Clemons, The Atlantic, 10/27/11, Defense Cuts: Rebalancing Away from Middle East to Asia,

But what has reached me through a … portfolio will remain where it is now, if not more robust.

The United States federal government should ask the Carter Center to provide assistance for mediation of a legal reform dialogue between the Bahraini monarchy and opposition group leaders.

Solves the whole case

Lords, 9

(PhD Candidate-International Relations at USC, Forging Ahead: Assessing the Sustainability of the Carter Center in a Post-Carter Era, http://digitallibrary.usc.edu/assetserver/controller/item/etd-Lords-2878.pdf)

Charisma. Carter‟s personality characteristics … most listened-to voice in the world” (Brinkley, 1998:314).

Off Case: t – material support, saudi relations, unemployment benefit politics, pressure cp, carter center cp, asia meeting focus disad,

solvency

Bahrain would say no

Ghezali, 9-13

Rabah Ghezali, member of the Transatlantic Network 2020, and special to CNN, 9-13-2011, “Bahrain at the heart of Middle East tensions,” CNN,

Inside the regime, the gap has widened … Prime Minister are red lines.

Anti-Americanism and the King’s reliance on hardliner Sunni’s make it impossible for the King to promote reform or the Prince  

Gengler, 7-15

Justin Gengler, Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at the University in Michigan and former Fulbright Fellow to Bahrain,7-15-2011, , Foreign Policy, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/15/the_other_side_of_radicalization_in_bahrain

 In a July 6 interview with Egyptian journalists … his efforts to serve his nation and religion."

Most recent evidence confirms the plan can’t do anything

Hokayem, Middle East analyst – International Institute for Strategic Studies, 10/19/’11

(Emile, “U.S. Has Few Options to Curb Crackdown in Bahrain,” )

With the international attention elsewhere … folded after Saudi Arabia intervened in March.

Any concession to reformists would cause hardliner backlash and instability

Gengler, 8-13

Justin Gengler, Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Michigan, “ A Parliament Without Opposition,” http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/2011/08/parliament-without-opposition.html

The other question, of course, is whether … of the Slogans!!" So this is a heartening development..

fleet

Crackdown solves instability

WSJ 11

("Bahrain Opposition Faces Uphill Effort," 3-28, online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703576204576227050727063170.html)

MANAMA—Bahrain's Shiite-led opposition … of its growing confidence that protests can be stifled.

No risk of base kick-out

Bryan, 11

(Politico Columnist, 4/11, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0411/52885.html)

These concerns, however, … rubber bullets against the protesters.

The conclusion of the Cropsey evidence says defense cuts cause the impact – the plan doesn’t reverse that

Cropsey 10--Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Officer and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and BushII, "The US Navy in Distress", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34 No. 1, January, http://www.hudson.org/files/publications/Cropsey_US_Navy_In_Distress.pdf

The consequences of a much … unbridled cost of building ships.

Data disproves hegemony impacts

Fettweis, 11

Christopher J. Fettweis, Department of Political Science, Tulane University, 9/26/11, Free Riding or Restraint? Examining European Grand Strategy, Comparative Strategy, 30:316–332, EBSCO

It is perhaps worth noting that there is no … base their view on faith alone.

Specifically for naval power

Kaplan, senior fellow – Center for a New American Security, 12/17/‘8

(Robert, “A Gentler Hegemony,” Washington Post)

Declinism is in the air. The latest conventional … influence the world from a position of moral strength.

iran

No escalation

Fettweis, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College, ‘7

(Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98)

Without the US presence, a second argument goes, …. is far more likely than outright warfare.

Iran’s losing in Bahrain – they won’t gain influence or use it for a proxy conflict

Khalaji, senior fellow focused on Iran and Shiite politics – Washington Institute, 6/27/’11

(Mehdi, )

Despite such fiery rhetoric, the Islamic … of confrontation with their governments.

No Iran-Saudi war over Bahrain – US deters Iran and they don’t see chance of success

Spinner, 2011

Jack Spinner, Christian Science Monitor Correspondent,3-15-2011, “Why Bahrain is unlikely to turn into an Iran-Saudi battleground,”

But Iran will not go so far as to … support for Bahrain's monarchy.”

1nc/1nr pakistan adv

The plan doesn’t spill over

CSIS, Center for Strategic and International Studies Forum on Islam, ‘7

()

“Each Shi’a community is driven … for themselves in a Sunni dominated world.

Shiite militant groups will stoke tensions no matter what

Rehman, 11/4

(Columnist-Central Asia Online, http://centralasiaonline.com/en_GB/articles/caii/features/pakistan/main/2011/11/04/feature-02)

KARACHI – The investigations of a Saudi … between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

US pressure will block the pipeline inevitably

Pakistan Tribune, 10/26

(http://paktribune.com/news/Pakistan-dithers-on-Iran-gas-pipeline-plan-244654.html)

ISLAMABAD: Federal Minister for Petroleum … and economic situation in Iran."

We’ll offer them TAPI as an alternative

Haider, 10/24

(Foreign Affairs Columnist-In Paper Magazine, http://www.dawn.com/2011/10/24/threat-to-pakistan-iran-gas-pipeline.html)

Washington hardened its opposition to … IPC (Iran-Pakistan-China) would not be feasible.

No China-Russia war

Spears, chief foreign policy writer – Brooks Foreign Policy Review, 5/1/’9

(Collin, )

Although China is facing water shortages … region, as China has proved to be a rational actor.

Empirics prove it won’t escalate

Chicago Tribune, 10/15/04

China and Russia settled the last of their … East had remained in dispute.

Fear of escalation is a trump card

Moritary, 2004

Tom Moriarty, military intelligence analyst for the U.S. Air Force. 9/22/04, World Affairs

However, the Soviet Union ultimately chose to … provocations and let the confrontation defuse naturally. (12)

No Indo-pak war

Ganguly, 8

[Sumit Ganguly is a professor of political science and holds the Rabindranath Tagore Chair at Indiana University, Bloomington. “Nuclear Stability in South Asia,” International Security, Vol. 33, No. 2 (Fall 2008), pp. 45–70]

As the outcomes of the 1999 and 2001–02 crises show, … the problem on Indian territory

at: cred addon

Bahrain isn’t key to cred

Fisher, associate editor – The Atlantic, 9/21/’11

(Max, “Obama's UN Address and the Bahrain Exception,” )

The cynical take believes that the U.S. … U.S. may have decided, just aren't there.

Alt causes outweigh the plan

Duss, policy analyst and director – Middle East Progress @ Center for American Progress, 7/21/’11

(Matthew, )

A new Zogby International poll of Arab opinions … on the debate over Tunisia’s new constitution.

Especially Israel

WSJ, 11, ("Obama to Pledge New Mideast Aid," 5-18, online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704281504576329692899835726.html)

 WASHINGTON—President Barack Obama will announce … without addressing the conflict is unlikely to generate much enthusiasm."

2nc say no

The regime can’t make enough concessions and the Sunni military provocation outweighs

Chick, 2011

Kristen Chick, Christian Science Monitor’s Egypt Correspondent, “Bahrain's crackdown is pushing both sides to extremes,” http://www.minnpost.com/worldcsm/2011/04/20/27631/bahrains_crackdown_is_pushing_both_sides_to_extremes

While there’s been no mention of dialogue … start looking like real democracy.”

Violence caused too much polarization

Ulrichsen, 9/6

(Research Fellow-London School of Economics and Political Science, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/06/dark_clouds_over_bahrain)

All the while the prospects for any … direct investment and rooting out corruption.

Their ev is too old – the window closed for empowering moderates
 The Atlantic 6/10 2011, “Time to Disband the Bahrain-Based U.S. Fifth
 Fleet,”

Whatever opening there was for real … the potential for perennial violence.

Even if talks succeed, that doesn’t solve instability

Noueihed, 11

Lin Noueihed, Reuters writer, 5-5-2011, “Bahrain could become proxy battleground for regional powers,” Daily Star,

Even if talks succeed, however, … while Shiite protesters are beaten by the police.”

They only want regime change

Chick, 2011

Kristen Chick, Christian Science Monitor’s Egypt Correspondent, “Bahrain's crackdown is pushing both sides to extremes,” http://www.minnpost.com/worldcsm/2011/04/20/27631/bahrains_crackdown_is_pushing_both_sides_to_extremes

“At the beginning, we were asking … groups to lead future negotiations.

They don’t solve his recommendations – he doesn’t want DIALOGUE

Ali Al-Ahmed, Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs, and Joshua Jacobs, Gulf Policy Analyst, 5-2011, “The Crisis in Bahrain,” http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/59873023?access_key=key-1c62rrj008vha0ut6sj9

The US must engage with the … efforts to compel real political reform.

amassador

Ambassador Krajeski would do the plan

Bockenfeld, 10-7

Cole Bockenfeld,  Director of Advocacy at the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), 10-7-2011, “ Protecting the US-Bahraini relationship,” http://thedailynewsegypt.com/region/protecting-the-us-bahraini-relationship.html

 Given the vital Bahraini-US relationship, the … in a meaningful and substantive dialogue.

Proves Bahrain says no

MP, 10-12

Manama Press, http://manamapress.net/?p=4207

PARLIAMENT yesterday issued a vote of no … the same agenda in Bahrain.

2nc anti americanism

At worst it causes increased hardliner empowerment – flips the whole case

Jones, 11

(Prof-History-Rutgers, 6/10, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/06/time-to-disband-the-bahrain-based-us-fifth-fleet/240243/1/)

Whatever opening there was for real .. have been sacked from their jobs.

We control uniqueness – military crackdown ended protests – US meddling causes a new wave of radicalization and protests. 

The link goes one way – US has no influence with protestors

Barfi, research fellow – New America Foundation, 4/28/’11

(Barak, )

I want to finish by talking a little bit …ground is somewhat limited.

Even if we have influence, it’s too late to use it – plan causes more polarization

Traub, writer – NYT Magazine, 3/18/’11

(James, jmhinternational.com/news/news/selectednews/files/2011/03/20110318_ForeignPolicy_TheMythOfTheUsefulDictator.pdf)

The administration argues that the United States can't … which really would be a disaster for U.S. policy.

We can’t influence either side – only a risk of smear campaigns destroying dialogue

POMEPS, August 11

Project on Middle East Politics Science is based at the Institute for Middle East Studies at the George Washington University, directed by Marc Lynch, “The Saudi Counter-Revolution,” http://www.pomeps.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/POMEPS_BriefBooklet5_SaudiArabia_web.pdf

 The Bahrain crisis is also …We really are in unchartered territory.

Hardline policies empower extremists in the opposition – undermines conditions for dialogue

Ulrichsen, 2011

ULRICHSEN 2011 (Kristian Coates Ulrichsen is a research fellow at the London School of Economics, “Gulf States: studious silence falls on Arab Spring,” Open Democracy, April 25, http://www.opendemocracy.net/kristian-coates-ulrichsen/gulf-states-studious-silence-falls-on-arab-spring)

The choice to suppress demonstrations … strongly-voiced US displeasure.[16]

fleet adv

Saudi would step in immediately

Mutter, graduate student – Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute at NYU, contributor – Foreign Policy In Focus, 6/29/’11

(Paul, Saudi Arabia: Rolling Back the Arab Spring,” )

The Saudi and Bahraini monarchies recently … protesters have been killed or are missing.

Crackdowns work

Stratfor 6-1,

("In Bahrain, a Crisis Averted Leaves Long-Term ChallengesRead more: In Bahrain, a Crisis Averted Leaves Long-Term Challenges," 2011, )

After a series of deadly crackdowns and … provoking conflict with security forces.

Opposition is too weak

Diwan 11

(Assistant Professor, School of International Service, American University, "Un-Unified Oppositions in Bahrain and Yemen," 3-23, )

One key characteristic of the … to confront the monarchy.

Saudis will ensure it stays open

McCormick, Clarendon Scholar – Oxford University, writer – Foreign Policy, 7/22/’11

(Ty, “The Arab Recession,” Foreign Policy)

Suzanne Maloney, a senior … 5th Fleet is unlikely to sink anytime soon.

Cuts will be huge

The Hill, 7/13/’11

()

The Navy could be … Lexington Institute think tank.

at: bmd

Their evidence says there aren’t enough Aegis ships to credibly deter with BMD

Goure and Grant, 2009

 Goure and Grant 9—Daniel, PhD, former Deputy Director of the International Security Program at the CSIS, and Rebecca, PhD, "US Naval Options for Influencing Iran", Lexington Institute, Report under consideration for publication … insufficient quantity of missiles.

Arms sales solve BMD presence

UAE

Tristam, 2010

Pierre Tristam, About.com, 2010, “ Why Is the US Selling Ballistic Missile Defense Technology to the UAE?” http://middleeast.about.com/b/2010/06/26/thaad-missiles-uae.htm

 The National, the UAE's … America and the Emirates."

Kuwait

BBC, 2010

 BBC News, 8-11-2010,“US to sell Kuwait Patriot anti-ballistic missile system,” http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-10945524

The US government has said it … a short distance from Iran across the Gulf.

slocs

Impact no say nueks except korea

Zero risk of Korean conflict

Ashley Rowland, 12/3/2010. Stars and Stripes. “Despite threats, war not likely in Korea, experts say,” http://www.stripes.com/news/despite-threats-war-not-likely-in-korea-experts-say-1.127344?localLinksEnabled=false.

Despite increasingly belligerent threats to respond … a full-scale fight would be the elites.

iran adv

Empirics are conclusive – tons of war in the region and zero escalation

Kevin Drum, Staff Writer for the Washington Monthly, 9/9/’7

()

Having admitted, however, that … for a decade. No regional conflagration.

Prefer empirical ev --

a) Best prediction model

Fettweis, Asst Prof Poli Sci – Tulane, Asst Prof National Security Affairs – US Naval War College, ‘7

(Christopher, “On the Consequences of Failure in Iraq,” Survival, Vol. 49, Iss. 4, December, p. 83 – 98)

Firstly, and perhaps most obviously, … Iraq is not likely to be either.

b) Best Middle East methodology

Luttwak, senior associate – CSIS, professor – Georgetown and Berkeley, 5/26/’7

(Edward, “The middle of nowhere,” Prospect Magazine)

Why are middle east experts so … in a season of conflict in Darfur.

no great power intervention

Kaye 10—Senior political scientist, RAND. CFR member and former prof at George Wash. PhD in pol sci from UC Berkeley—AND—Frederic Wehrey—Senior analyst at RAND. Former Georgetown prof. D.Phil. candidate in IR, Oxford. Master’s in near Eastern studies, Princeton—AND—Jeffrey Martini—Middle East research project associate at RAND. Master’s in Arab studies at Georgetown (Dalia Dassa, The Iraq Effect, Report Prepared for the Air Force, http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_MG892.pdf)

Continue the policy of encouraging responsible … case of Russia than China.

Prefer our argument – there’s no hard evidence for Iranian involvement. If it existed, the government obviously wouldn’t hold it back

Kaye, 11

(Senior Political Scientist-RAND, Foreign Affairs, Jul-August, Lexis)

Iran is also likely to meet resistance in … of Iranian or Hezbollah interference in the uprisings.

No war

Alexander, 10-10

Vatutin Alexander, political analyst, 10-10, “ Saudi Arabia-Iran tensions posing threat to global oil market,” http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/10/10/58461134.html

Trying to predict the consequences of … have to deal with the alliance."

They’ll mess with the Saudis in Lebanon instead

Jayedanfar, 2011

Meir Javedanfar,  Iranian-Israeli Middle East analyst, 3-24-2011, “Iran and Saundi Arabia cold war has entered a new era,” The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/mar/24/iran-saudi-arabia-bahrain-cold-war

It is unlikely that Iran would … veto in Lebanon's cabinet.

trip key

A substantive and focused trip is critical to assure a skeptical Asia that the US is committed—that is key to effective diplomacy and Asia stability

Lohman and Warshaw 10/10

Walter Lohman, Robert Warshaw, Heritage Foundation, 10/10/11, President Obama’s Pacific Swing: Commitment Means More Than Just Showing the Flag,

On November 11–19, President Barack … perfectly suited to do that. Now it is up to him.

impacts

Triggers a massive arms race

Kemp 10

Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center, served in the White House under Ronald Reagan, special assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs on the National Security Council Staff, Former Director, Middle East Arms Control Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2010, The East Moves West: India, China, and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, p. 233-5

A third scenario, Asian Balance of Power, …—particularly nuclear terrorism.

Goes nuclear

Cirincione 2k (Joseph, director of the Non-Proliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Foreign Policy, “The Asian Nuclear Reaction Chain,” 3/22/00, lexis)

The blocks would fall quickest and … of a nuclear weapon since 1945.

uniqueness

No alt causes—only Asia focus now

Johnson 10/11

Keith Johnson, Wall Street Journal, 10/11/11, Clinton Says 'Center of Gravity' Shifting to Asia-Pacific , online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203537304577030582124989756.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

The Obama administration will double-… start of a weeklong Asian tour.

Obama shifting focus to East Asia from the Middle East

Fisher 10/10

Max Fisher, The Atlantic Associate Editor, 10/10/11, 5 Lessons of U.S. Plan for a Permanent Military Presence in Australia,

(2) U.S. focusing away from Middle … -- to set America's military emphasis in East Asia.

Asia focus now

Steve Clemons, The Atlantic, 10/27/11, Defense Cuts: Rebalancing Away from Middle East to Asia,

But what has reached me through a … portfolio will remain where it is now, if not more robust.

off Case: T – DA is Material Transfer, the imperialism K, Unemployment Benefits Politics DA, Saudi DA, Pressure Counterplan, Inherency

off

The plan isn’t inherent

Katzman 2011

Kenneth Katzman, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, Congressional Research Service, 10-18-2011, “ Bahrain: Reform, Security, and U.S. Policy,”

Just prior to the GCC intervention and subsequent … and King Hamad’s restatements of his commitment to reform.10

We’ve sent expertise

Katzman 2011

Kenneth Katzman, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, Congressional Research Service, 10-18-2011, “ Bahrain: Reform, Security, and U.S. Policy,”

 At the same time, the Administration has undertaken some … them to try to start dialogue with the opposition.

Vote neg

A – presumption – they’re zero percent better than the squo – less change. Proves the plan is inevitable, if conditions change – the US would support renewed dialogue.

B – inherency – kills our DA links and moots the word should

solvency

Bahrain would say no

Ghezali, 9-13

Rabah Ghezali, member of the Transatlantic Network 2020, and special to CNN, 9-13-2011, “Bahrain at the heart of Middle East tensions,” CNN, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/13/bahrain-at-the-heart-of-middle-east-tensions/

Inside the regime, the gap has widened … removal of the Prime Minister are red lines.

Anti-Americanism and the King’s reliance on hardliner Sunni’s make it impossible for the King to promote reform or the Prince  

Gengler, 7-15

Justin Gengler, Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at the University in Michigan and former Fulbright Fellow to Bahrain,7-15-2011, , Foreign Policy, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/15/the_other_side_of_radicalization_in_bahrain

 In a July 6 interview with Egyptian journalists … [him] for his efforts to serve his nation and religion."

Most recent evidence confirms the plan can’t do anything

Hokayem, Middle East analyst – International Institute for Strategic Studies, 10/19/’11

(Emile, “U.S. Has Few Options to Curb Crackdown in Bahrain,” )

With the international attention elsewhere …, folded after Saudi Arabia intervened in March.

civil war

Assassination plot is a massive alt cause to Saudi – Iran relations

Leigh, Mid East correspondent – TIME, 10/13/’11

(Karen, )

The supposed plot "is something new," says Jane … "this is exactly what we should expect."

No Iran-Saudi war over Bahrain – US deters Iran and they don’t see chance of success

Spinner, 2011

Jack Spinner, Christian Science Monitor Correspondent,3-15-2011, “Why Bahrain is unlikely to turn into an Iran-Saudi battleground,”

But Iran will not go so far as to engage in … of the Saudi support for Bahrain's monarchy.”

Negotiations solve proxy escalation in Bahrain

Stratfor, 7/8/’11

(“Triangle of Intrigue: Iranian-Saudi Negotiations and the U.S. Position”)

The weakness of the U.S. position vis-a-vis Iran … why should the Saudis coordinate their negotiations with the Americans?

Iranian anti-access area-denial capabilities neutralize bases in the Persian Gulf – the Navy has no strategy to respond

Wood, 10

David Wood, Chief Military Correspondent, former correspondent for Time, and Pultizer prize finalist for writing on national security, 9-16-2011, “ China, Iran Creating 'No-Go' Zones to Thwart U.S. Military Power,” Politics Daily,

But now the party's over. The United States… for effective power projection operations.''

Bahraini base isn’t key to power projection – kick out spurs a strategic shift to a flexible basing strategy

Koplovsky, 6

Michael Koploysvky, Foreign Service Officer, Ph.D. in Strategic Studies from Naval War College, )

Despite adamant arguments outlining the … for future challenges in the region.

Solves their advantage and anti-access weapons, even without allied support

Eisenstadt, 2005

Michael Eisenstadt, senior fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program, 2005, “Deter and Contain: Dealing with a Nuclear Iran,”

Some Iranian decisionmakers might … rights during crises or wartime.29

And it solves heg and deterrence way better than the aff

Perry, commander – US Navy, ‘9

(Michael F, “Importance of Seabasing to Land Power Generation,” US Army War College)

Seabasing supports numerous aspects of … Force Commanders a wide array of tactical options.

Israel won’t attack – relations with the US

Cook, senior fellow, Mid East studies – CFR, 6/9/’9

(Steven A, “Why Israel Won’t Attack Iran,” Foreign Affairs)

Given Israel's perception of an acute … when it comes to the United States.

Empirics are conclusive

Cook, senior fellow, Mid East studies – CFR, 6/9/’9

(Steven A, “Why Israel Won’t Attack Iran,” Foreign Affairs)

Yet, despite my best efforts to walk … what was Iraq's Osirak nuclear facility.

Israel will threaten strikes for deterrence, but won’t follow through

Cook, senior fellow, Mid East studies – CFR, 6/9/’9

(Steven A, “Why Israel Won’t Attack Iran,” Foreign Affairs)

There is no way of knowing for sure what … to act they will not hear about it first on CNBC.

hezbollah

Iran’s losing in Bahrain – they won’t gain influence or use it for a proxy conflict

Khalaji, senior fellow focused on Iran and Shiite politics – Washington Institute, 6/27/’11

(Mehdi, )

Despite such fiery rhetoric, the Islamic … with their governments.

Shiites won’t accept assistance from Iran

Kaye, 11

(Senior Political Scientist-RAND, Foreign Affairs, Jul-August, Lexis)

Iran is also likely to meet resistance in areas … interference in the uprisings.

No impact to Hezbollah-Israel war

White, 2006

Jeffrey White, Defense Fellow at the Washington Institute, July 2006, “The Potential for Escalation in the Hizballah-Israel Conflict,” Washington Institute,

There are also dynamics that … likely to decline as it comes out to fight.

Syria maintains control over CBWs

AFP, 8-31

 “US says Syria retains control over chemical weapons,” http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jk34tQYGkdsE3AlIg-CwD8-X-YGQ?docId=CNG.9e34c99182f5659a398b65217766ca17.981

The United States said Tuesday that … status of those weapons," Nuland added.

No risk of nuclear terror

Mueller 10 (John, professor of political science at Ohio State, Calming Our Nuclear Jitters, Issues in Science and Technology, Winter, )

Politicians of all stripes preach to an anxious, … or one in three billion per attempt.

2nc at: weakness/russia add-on (NU BK)

Libya alt cause

Bolton, 7-27

John Bolton, 7-27-2011, “ Obama's Libya Missteps Imperil NATO's Future,” http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=45122

 The collapse of NATO’s resolve … afield, such as Afghanistan.

One alt cause is enough – their ev is about the whole Mideast crisis – Bahrain not key

Washington Times, 2011

 Washington Times 11, “Obama’s Gulf in leadership”, March 16, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/mar/16/obamas-gulf-in-leadership/

 At this point, it’s reasonable … who is growing weaker.

2nc alt causes

Bahrain not key – Sunni-Alawite war in Syria escalates and hits the Gulf – takes out solvency

Nasr, 8-27

Vali Nasr, professor at Tufts and Senior Fellow @ Brookings, 8-27-2011, “If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly,” NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?pagewanted=all

THE Arab Spring is a hopeful chapter in … gain. In Bahrain, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, it is already happening.

Assad fall makes all their impacts inevitable

Milani, Professor of Politics and Chair, Department of Government and International Affairs – University of South Florida, 10/11/’11

(Mohsen, “Iran and Saudi Arabia Square Off,” Foreign Affairs)

In the Levant, meanwhile, Saudi … across the region, particularly in Bahrain and Iraq.

2nc negotiations solve

Negotiations will create a settlement over Bahrain – deescalates it as a site for conflict

Bhalla, senior Middle East analyst – Stratfor, 7/1/’11

(Rava, “Agenda: Power Vacuum In The Middle East,” Interview, Stratfor)

Reva: We’re looking at a situation now where the …, so this could be the beginning of a broader negotiation there.

That’s more likely than a proxy war

Savyon, director – Iranian Media Project @ Middle East Media Research Institute, 7/4/’11

(A, “Iran's Defeat in the Bahrain Crisis: A Seminal Event in the Sunni-Shi'ite Conflict,” )

In fact, by sending its … with the Gulf states.

2nc seabasing solves heg/iran

Seabasing is less vulnerable – stops Iranian aggression

Dolan, 2010

Daniel Dolan, USN Commander, Military Professor in the Strategy and Policy Division of Navy War College, 2010, “Rethinking the Strait of Hormuz,” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA535518

34 Christopher McCarthy, ―Anti-Access/Area Denial: The Evolution … and survive in a conflict against Iran.

Ability to inflict casualties emboldens Iran and turns heg

White, defense fellow – the Washington Institute, ‘11

(Jeffrey, “What Would War with Iran Look Like?” The American Interest, July/August)

Iran will likely … supporters.

It solves credibility

Klein and Morales 4

United States Naval Institute, Lt. Com John and Col. Rich, both of USN

http://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=7854563

 Sea Basing will affect other … stable relations between the United States and its allies.

And deterrence

England, 2004

Gordon England, Secretary of the Navy, “Naval Transformation Roadmap,” http://www.iwar.org.uk/rma/resources/transformation/naval-transformation.pdf

Sea Basing will provide sustainable global … the nation with unmatched operational freedom of action.

Key to quick wins and deterrence – this card’s comparative

Perry, commander – US Navy, ‘9

(Michael F, “Importance of Seabasing to Land Power Generation,” US Army War College)

This study reaches six conclusions … which most other joint capabilities cannot match.”100

2nc seabasing solves stability

Hegemony contains regional conflicts

Freeman 6/12/11

Freeman, C. W. (2011), The Arab Reawakening: Strategic Implications. Middle East Policy, 18: 29–36. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-4967.2011.00482.x

Charles W. ("Chas") Freeman, Jr. (born 1943) is an American diplomat, author, and writer. He has served for the State and Defense Departments in many different capacities in the past thirty years,[1] with the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs calling his career "remarkably varied". He most notably worked as the main interpreter for Richard Nixon in his 1972 China visit and as the United States Ambassador to Saudi Arabia from 1989 to 1992, where he dealt with issues related to the Persian Gulf War.[2] He is a past president of the Middle East Policy Council, co-chair of the U.S. China Policy Foundation, and vice-chair of the Atlantic Council.[3]

These changes are occurring as the … Iran than to join others in countering it.

This is especially true in Bahrain. Saudi Arabia has already invaded. It only becomes a war if Iran intervenes.

Barzegar, 2011

 Kayhan Barzegar, 4-20-2011,  Faculty Member, Department of International Relations, Science and Research University, Tehran, Iran, Former Associate, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program, 2010–2011; Former Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/international Security Program, 2007–2010,  "Iran's Interests and Values and the 'Arab Spring'"

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/20954/irans_interests_and_values_and_the_arab_spring.html

Iran will not initiate any … Persian Gulf.

2nc turns case – general

Iran hegemony makes every aff impact inevitable

Sobhani, President – Caspian Energy Consulting, PhD – Georgetown University, 10/12/’11

(Rob, “The cold war between Saudi Arabia and Iran,” )

The announcement … its Western allies.

2nc land base fails

Assume the worse – land bases are too vulnerable

Parker, 2010

Commander George Parker, US Navy, and Federal Executive Fellow at Brookings, 2010, “Seabasing Since the Cold War,” http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2010/0630_seabasing_parker/0630_seabasing_parker.pdf

Even with a permissive host nation, … from land bases, including ports and airfields.

Err negative – trends

Krepinevich, 2010

Andrew Krepinevich, Executive Director of CSBA, “Why AirSea Battle?,” 2010, CSBA, http://www.csbaonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/2010.02.19-Why-AirSea-Battle.pdf

To sum up, despite formidable economic …, the challenge will be all the more formidable.

Area denial obviates every US advantage – emboldens Iran and ensures defeat

Goure, Vice President – Lexington Institute, PhD IR – Johns Hopkins, 7/7/’10

(Daniel, “The Persian Gulf And The Future Of The U.S. Navy,” )

Iran is preparing to block the flow of oil … meet the challenge posed by Iran today or China tomorrow.

And it means means we would never use the fleet – psychological effect

Turner, major – USMC, Naval War College, ‘11

(Andrew, “AMPHIBIOUS OPERATIONS IN THE 21ST CENTURY: ARE THE COSTS AND RISKS TOO HIGH?”)

The use of naval mines during Desert … on the public’s support for a military operation.

at: deterrence solves a2ad

Even if Iran is still deterred or A2AD threats can’t be executed, A2AD threats cause the US to act weak in a crisis

Krepinevich, 2011

Andrew Krepinevich,  defense policy analyst, currently executive director of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2011, “Meeting the Anti-Access and Area Denial Challenge,” CSBA, http://www.csbaonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/2003.05.20-Anti-Access-Area-Denial-A2-AD.pdf

During the Cold War, the United States defense … power where it is needed. Iii

Collapses US security alliances

Michael E. O'Hanlon, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies at Brookings, 5/1/2005,

And as bizarre as it may seem, the US …to China's firing of missiles near the island.

That destroys global power projection – causes crises everywhere

Douglas Paal, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9-2-2008, “Georgia's Lessons for Taiwan,” Carnegie Endowment,

6) Credibility is global. There are no … aggressors that reinforces their restraint.

2nc at: infeasible

Seabasing isn’t hard – the fleet stays offshore, supplied by logistical boats and airlifts, and it conducts operations from there. We can easily do that today

Perry, commander – US Navy, ‘9

(Michael F, “Importance of Seabasing to Land Power Generation,” US Army War College)

Recent Examples of Seabasing

U.S. joint and … the coast of a Joint Operating Area.79

We did it in Afghanistan

Work, senior naval analyst – Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, ‘6

(Robert, “Thinking About Seabasing: All Ahead, Slow,” )

Less than three weeks after the 2001 … from the United States.328

We seabased for all of WWII

Tangredi, 2010

Sam J. Tangredi, regional director of the planning-consulting firm Strategic Insight, 11-21-2010, http://www.eurasiareview.com/21112010-seabasing-concept-issues-and-recommendations-2/

 There is both a broad and ….[5] The U.S. Army also operates prepositioning ships.

2nc at: sea base infeasible

Seabasing’s a concept – the spelling is vital

Work, senior naval analyst – Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, ‘6

(Robert, “Thinking About Seabasing: All Ahead, Slow,” )

The Office of Force Transformation (OFT)—the office … more attention than they received.

Seabasing is not a physical base – their authors are hacks**

Work, senior naval analyst – Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, ‘6

(Robert, “Thinking About Seabasing: All Ahead, Slow,” )

What exactly is “Sea Basing?” Is it really just … more expansive and maritime in scope.

2nc at: kick-out kills cred

Quickly redeploying the fleet solves cred – their evidence all assumes a major loss for the US – not a quick movement to bases TWENTY MILES OFF THE SHORE

Hokayem, Middle East analyst – International Institute for Strategic Studies, 10/19/’11

(Emile, “U.S. Has Few Options to Curb Crackdown in Bahrain,” )

Closing the base would also send all the … would weaken the U.S. in the process.

Regional allies don’t care about abstract credibility, only the outcome of conflicts – otherwise Iraq and Afghanistan would cause the link

Cohen, associate VP for research – CSIS, June ‘11

(Craig, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of US Power,” )

There is widespread agreement … of magnitude and importance.34

Flexible capabilities are a bigger internal link to credibility

Gerson, 2009

Michael Gerson, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, 2009, “Conventional Deterrence in the Second Nuclear Age,” Parameters, http://www.carlisle.army.mil/USAWC/Parameters/09autumn/gerson.pdf

Credibility, according to Sir Lawrence Freedman, … alleged aversion to casualties.

Best studies confirm this

Press 5

Daryl Press, Associate Professor of Government | Dartmouth College, Calculating credibility:

how leaders assess military threats. Google Books

 In international politics credibility is a … up by sufficient strength and connected to weighty interests

at: sabins (NU BK)

Their article is assessing the feasibility of a huge new base at sea – that’s obviously not feasible

Sabins, 2004

Amol Sabnis, Lt. Cdr, Indian Navy, 2004, “Concept of Sea Basing and its Effect on Indo-US Relations: The Way Ahead,” online

The different capabilities necessary in a … to the study by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) and the DSB Task Force.

at: heg turn (sabins/NU BK)

Their sea-basing kills heg card is laughable – it says that sea basing is so good for heg that it enables unilateralism – proves that we solve deterrence and heg

Sabins, 2004

Amol Sabnis, Lt. Cdr, Indian Navy, 2004, “Concept of Sea Basing and its Effect on Indo-US Relations: The Way Ahead,” online

Sea basing will give the US the … of national power.

uq

Intl Crisis Group, 11

(7/28, Bahrain’s Rocky Road to Reform, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iran-gulf/bahrain.aspx)

Some officials privately justified this … rights abuse and failed to initiate meaningful political reform.151

overview

Saudi prolif outweighs –

Quick regional prolif ensures accidents and miscalc – that’s Edelman. 

Turns the whole aff – causes preemptive Israel strike, Egypt/Israel war, and nuclear arms race

Bowman, 8

(International Affairs Fellow at the CFR, February, Chain Reaction: Avoiding a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CPRT-110SPRT39674/html/CPRT-110SPRT39674.htm)

Of any Middle Eastern state, Saudi … to Iran by pursuing a nuclear weapon.

A2 palestine veto

Top level uq is irrelevant because there’s no prolif now

No backlash to Palestine – actions outweigh rhetoric

Satloff, 6/14

(Executive Director-The Washington Institute, )

The first such effort -- the false bravado … earning from the recent rise in oil prices.

No veto – EU

David Makovsky 9-19, Ziegler distinguished fellow and director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute, lecturer in Middle Eastern studies at Johns Hopkins, masters in Mid East studies from Harvard, “The Palestinian Bid for UN Membership: Rationale, Response, Repercussions”, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3344

Because the possibility of the Quartet …. the momentum of their national aspirations.

A2 instability turns the da

Unrest won’t spill over

Worth 11 (Robert F., staff writer, “Unrest Encircles Saudis, Stoking Sense of Unease,” New York Times, 2/20/11, )

“The Bahrain uprising may give more … will make things better.”

No impact

CNBC 3/11 (Saudi Arabia Regime Will Survive Protests: Eurasia Group, )

Police and protesters clashed in Saudi … equal regime demise.”

Bandow says we “should” abandon them, not that we “would”

This potential disaster suggests the … its system on its much smaller neighbor.

And he says the DA is unique and they don’t solve

Yet the Obama administration has … we’d do if they are next.” What would “we” do?

A2 resiliency

The plan undermines the security contract, warrant in their evidence

FT, 6/16/’11

("Arab spring tests US-Saudi relationship", http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4082dc70-984d-11e0-ae45-00144feab49a.html#axzz1U6GSp8Bu)

Indeed, the fact that Ali Abdullah Saleh, … the US recognised the state of Israel in 1948.

Their ev doesn’t assume key decisionmakers

Bakshi, former Special Assistant to the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, writer – CNN, 3/22/’11

(Amar, “The state of the Saudi-U.S. relationship,” globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/22/the-state-of-the-saudi-u-s-relationship/)

I talked with Afshin Molavi, Middle East … Probably not. But there is this tension right now.

A2 no prolif

They’ll buy weapons from Pakistan

Rozen, foreign policy correspondent – Politico, 4/18/’11

(Laura, http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theenvoy/20110418/ts_yblog_theenvoy/optimism-for-arab-spring-fades-in-face-of-complicated-u-s-saudi-alliance)

Riyadh, alarmed by the Obama administration's … they are accused of being Iranian agents."

The attempt causes nuke terror

Blank, 3

(Intl Affairs Analyst & Consultant, 11/7, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EK07Ak01.html)

Obviously, that kind of … of radicalism and technology becomes that much more real.

spoiler

Outweighs the aff

Al-Tamimi, Oxford University, writer – American Thinker and Middle East Forum, 6/19/’11

(Aymenn Jawad, )

The result of the Bahraini government's …. events lies in the hands of the Saudis and the GCC.

A2 iran prolif

Sanctions increases tensions

Michael Singh 10-13, managing director of The Washington Institute and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council, “Deter, Don't Dismiss, the Iranian Threat”,

However, if the allegations are correct, … damaged credibility in the Middle East.

Econ !

Moving away from Saudi on Bahrain threatens dollar primacy

Bremmer 11,

(President of the Eurasia Group, Washington’s stark choice: Democracy or Riyadh,” 3-17, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/493c8dd0-50b7-11e0-9227-00144feab49a.html#axzz1PO2DA51q)

Events of the past three months have … the signs are unmistakable that the Arab spring will make their relationship much less special in future.

Collapses the global economy – bypasses resiliency

Freeman, 4

(Chas, Middle East Policy Council President, 9/17, Federal News Service, p. lexis)

The second matter, and far more … of some sort of dollar collapse, and this is not a minor, minor matter.

2nr cards

UAE

Tristam, 2010

Pierre Tristam, About.com, 2010, “ Why Is the US Selling Ballistic Missile Defense Technology to the UAE?” http://middleeast.about.com/b/2010/06/26/thaad-missiles-uae.htm

 The National, the UAE's leading English-… forming between America and the Emirates."

Kuwait

BBC, 2010

 BBC News, 8-11-2010,“US to sell Kuwait Patriot anti-ballistic missile system,” http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-10945524

The US government has said it … a short distance from Iran across the Gulf.

Their evidence clearly doesn’t say Bahrain based BMD is key – it lists three other countries and land based systems

Ellison, 11

 Ellison 11—Riki, chairman and founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, "Unstable Momentum in Middle East Causes More US Need for Missile Defense", Feb 22, PR Newswire, http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/unstable-momentum-in-middle-east-causes-more-us-need-for-missile-defense-116674494.html

One of the best offensive and … by the Administration in the 2012 Budget.

Even a rapid US-Russia war would end in peace negotiations before nukes were launched – Russian generals concede.

Ivashov, 2007

Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems. July 2007 “WILL AMERICA FIGHT RUSSIA”. Defense and Security, No 78. LN 

Ivashov: Numerous scenarios and options are possible. …. It will stop the war and put negotiations into motion.

off CASE: T – Must be Gov’t – No Opposition Groups, Coercion, Unemployment Benefits Politics, Russian Relations DA, Tax Credits CP, Qatar CP

off

The United States federal government should privately ask Qatar to offer political organization training to the Syrian National Council.

The counterplan solves sectarianism and credibility

Mainen, 7-25

Matthew Mainen, policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs, 7-25-2011, Mainen Middle East Analysis,

The United States cannot sit on the sidelines as … Saudi-Iranian conflict and renewed U.S. influence in the region.

Qatar has comparative advantages—the US must encourage them to take a lead role

O’Sullivan, 10/4

(Professor-Harvard Kennedy School of Government & Former National Security Adviser, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-04/tiny-qatar-s-big-plans-may-change-u-s-mideast-policy-meghan-o-sullivan.html)

Qatar, a country of fewer than 2 million people set on a … and organization in Egypt and Libya, while Qatar foots more of the bill.

The power vacuum left by a limited US role has allowed Qatar to seize leadership and bolster their regional credibility

Economist, 11/5

(The rise of Qatar: Pygmy with the punch of a giant, http://www.economist.com/node/21536659)

In any event, Qatar punches far above its weight: …has soared on the back of such a success.

Qatari leadership key to stabilize Afghanistan

Hughes, 11/3

(Foreign Policy Strategist, New World Strategies Coalition

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-hughes/qatar-west-relations_b_1073374.html)

I came to appreciate the depth of Qatar's global … society's ethnic, tribal and sectarian mosaic.

That prevents global nuclear war

Morgan 7

(Stephen John, former National Executive Officer of the British Labour Party, his responsibilities included international relations, ethnic minority work, women’s issues, finance, local government and organization, he specialised particularly in international crisis situations spending long periods working in Belfast, in efforts to overcome sectarian strife and terrorism, former Director of WIC, a research and publishing company based in London, he went to live in Budapest during the Gorbachov period from where he helped build opposition groups in the underground in Hungary, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria and East Germany, Stephen left active politics in the early 1990 and came to live in Brussels, where he established and managed his own publishing company, has lived and worked in more than 27 different countries, including underground political work during the troubles in in Northern Ireland and war in Yugoslavia, http://www.electricarticles.com/display.aspx?id=639)

Although disliked and despised in many quarters, …, than a Taliban NUCLEAR Pakistan!

civil war

Credible opposition now

DG, 10-6

Democracy Digest, “The ‘elephant in the room’ of Syria’s revolt is….”

The formation of the 140-member Syrian .. baggage or personal ambition.”

The plan undermines opposition legitimacy – only organic leadership can create opposition unity and solve civil war

Landis, 8-9

Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies and associate professor at the University of Oklahoma, 8-9-2011, “

Doran and Shaikh's addition is the notion of … by their intelligence, canniness, and most importantly, by their success.

The plan doesn’t solve opposition unity – they say no, and differences are ideological not organizational

Landis, 8-29

Joshua Landis, 8-29-2011, “Opposition Disunity Becomes the Problem as the West Gets its Ducks in a Row,”

A full fledged food fight has broken out … and that Washington should prepare itself and NATO to intervene.

Corsi’s an idiot and a liar – throw their ev out

MMA, 2004

Media Matters For America, 8-11-2004, “Carville,”

On August 10, CNN Crossfire co-host James Carville … for declaring an end to major combat in Iraq.

No impact to weapons

Mueller 99, John Mueller, Prof. Pol. Sci. @ Ohio State and Karl Mueller, June, ’99 (Foreign Affairs, l/n)

Biological weapons seem a promising candidate to join … onto the attacker, and they can be countered with civil defense measures.

No impact to smallpox – their authors are hacks

Steven Milloy, columnist for Fox News, October 10, 2002, Small Pox Threat Exaggerated, Part II,

First, and as detailed last year in my FoxNews.com .. ever had the capability of carrying out smallpox bioterror.

Israel won’t go nuclear

Rowley, professors of economics – George Mason University, and Webb, member – Regulatory Economics Group, ‘7

(Charles and Michael, “Israel and Palestine: the slow road to peace or the fast track to mutual annihilation?” Public Choice Vol. 132, Iss. 1-2)

Israel would never deploy nuclear devices … we choose to rest, in drawing this analytic historical narrative to a close.

iran

Democratic Syria won’t abandon Iran

Leverett(s), 9-1

Flynt Leverett,  directs the Iran Project at the New America Foundation, former Director of Middle East Affairs at the National Security Council and CIA Senior Analyst,  and Hillary Mann Leverett,  CEO of Strategic Energy and Global Analysis, and Senior Research Fellow at Yale’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, 9-1-2011, “Iran And Syria: America’s Middle East Pundits Get It Wrong Again,”

 Second, while most Iranian policymakers …  Tehran can work with that.  

Multiple barriers to Iran heg