\\

The United States federal government should substantially increase civil society direct grants to Egyptian non-governmental organizations.

Democracy assistance to Egypt WAS direct aid to NGOs
Abdel-Baky 8/18/11
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1061/eg1.htm
al-ahram staff

 "USAID has contributed to Egyptian development needs………. the money is being distributed directly to NGOs without passing through governmental channels, such as the Ministry of State for International Cooperation.  

The US WAFFLED – assistance is channeled through the government
De Los Reyes 8/16/11
http://www.devex.com/en/blogs/development-assistance-under-obama/in-egypt-compromise-on-us-funds-for-ngos-raises-fears-of-government-control-2

After months of standing its ground on its decision to channel funds directly to civil society groups, the U.S. government has agreed to let the Egyptian government identify the priorities for distributing its aid. This, however, has raised

Adv. 1—Transition
Liberals and the SCAF are trapped in a loop of protest and repression
Hamid and Plumbly 7/14/11
http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0714_egypt_military_state_hamid.aspx
 Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center
Samuel Plumbly, Research Assistant, Brookings Doha Center 

For nearly two months, from January 18 to March 4………… he voting booth and the ballot box.  

Collapse of SCAF control is inevitable – the Muslim Brotherhood will takeover
Cook 8/29/11
http://www.copts.com/english/?p=2590
In the weeks and months since Egypt’s military officers……. Egyptian officers should not even bother trying.  

Muslim brotherhood will spark a war with Israel – goes nuclear
Meir-Levi 9/7/11
http://frontpagemag.com/2011/09/07/nine-fronts-in-the-next-war/2/
Igniting a new war between Israel and Egypt…….. during its 1948 war of survival.

The Sinai is uniquely destabilizing – guarantees nuclear use
Zitun 9/5/11
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4118220,00.html

IDF general: Likelihood of regional war growing  Senior IDF officer warns of 'radical Islamic winter' that may lead to regional war, could prompt use of WMDs…….. Eisenberg's remarks were approved for publication by censorship officials.  

Extinction
Louis René Beres 8-17, prof of poli sci and international law at Purdue, “Israel, anarchy and global chaos”, http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-EdContributors/Article.aspx?id=234092

In history, there is … effects would be chaotic.

The brotherhood hasn’t “moderated”
Radosh, 11
,http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7727
At present, the Brotherhood leaders pledge to not seek a presidential candidate and to be content with having a place at the table, as they do in the coalition that is meeting to write a new Egyptian constitution. Their apparent stance of moderation….. remaining a minority in a new democratic Egypt.

Brotherhood influence is inevitable – the plan creates a counterweight to prevent a political monopoly
Trager, September/October 11
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1704
Washington should view the recent rise of the Muslim….- the liberal vision for which the youths of Tahrir Square fought so valiantly.

Protestors will boycott the election – tanks the transition
Lynch 9/6/11
http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/06/will_egypts_activists_boycott_the_election
Marc Lynch is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University. 

But in some ways the turnout….. achieving a democratic Egypt. 

Stopping street protests also key to Egypt-Israeli relations
Jerusalem Post editorial 9/11/11
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Editorials/Article.aspx?id=237564
 The Jerusalem Post is an Israeli daily English-language broadsheet newspaper, founded on December 1, 1932 by Gershon Agron as The Palestine Post. The daily readership numbers (tens of thousands) do not approach those of the major Hebrew newspapers. While it was once regarded as left-wing, the paper underwent a noticeable shift to the right in the late 1980s.[3] After 2004, under the editorial leadership of Editor-in-Chief David Horovitz, a non-partisan, more inclusive editorial line was fostered. Today the Post features columns and opinion articles spanning the political spectrum.

Shortly after thousands of incensed….. transition to the post- Mubarak era  

Strong relations solve their impacts
Satloff, 11
Robert Satloff, executive director of The Washington Institute9/26/11, “Hanging by a Thread,” http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/opedsPDFs/4e68e438f05fd.pdf

IT’S THE GRANDDADDY OF ALL….. are too high not to try. 

US direct grants to independent NGOs solve Egyptian confidence in the transition
Schenker 7/25/11
http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459
 David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, from where this monograph, of which this is part 6, is adapted. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; in that capacity he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. 

 As Egypt approaches this crossroads….. for a transition to a democratic system.

BUILDING CONFIDENCE among LIBERAL GROUPS solves STREET PROTEST
Paciello 11
 Maria Cristina Paciello is researcher for Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Rome and lecturer in
Economic and Political Geography of Development at La Sapienza University of Rome. The author is
indebted to Dr Rym Ayadi, Prof. Abdul-Monem Al Mashat, Prof. Alia El-Mehdi and Dr Nathalie Tocci
for their insightful comments.
 Egypt: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition
Maria Cristina Paciello
MEDPRO Technical Report No. 4/May 2011 

While the direction of Egypt’s political……. to democracy moves forward.  

Anti-Americanism now – we solve
Thiessen, 11
(Visiting Fellow-AEI, 2/15, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/14/AR2011021403059.html)

The extraordinary scenes … to win them back.

Advantage two is Iran

The plan reinvigorates U.S. regional credibility – our stance on Egypt is key
Hamid 4/26/11
Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center
http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx

The revolutions are far from complete….. emphasis away from the latter

Support for democratic processes is crucial
Amjad Atallah and, Co-Director of the Middle East Task Force at the New America Foundation, Daniel Levy 11, Senior Research Fellow and Co-Director of the Middle East Task Force at the New America Foundation. He is also a Senior Fellow at The Century Foundation. He serves as a co-editor of The Middle East Channel, an online initiative of Foreign Policy Magazine, “America, Welcome to the Era of Arab Democracy”, February 10, http://www.newamerica.net/publications/articles/2011/america_welcome_to_the_era_of_arab_democracy_44467

Across the Middle East, and … away from the latter.

Nothing else matters
Michele Kelemen 11, covers the State Department for NPR, “U.S. Could Use Egypt To Boost Credibility, Some Say”, February 11, https://www.npr.org/2011/02/11/133661083/u-s-could-use-egypt-to-boost-credibility-some-say

Miller says this is part of a long….. to make sure there are real reforms.

The US must transition to an ideational model of Mid East engagement or risk total irrelevance – Egypt is the key
Peter Fettner 11, prof and PhD candidate in philosophy at Temple, published writer and researcher on US foreign policy, (writing under the pseudonym Byron), “Investigative Analysis: Soft Power in the Middle East – Reforming American Foreign Policy”, August 26, http://www.presstorm.com/2011/08/soft-power-in-the-middle-east-reforming-american-foreign-policy/

It’s easy to read the revolutions…. United States to respond.

Perception of US weakness emboldens Iran and causes other countries to bandwagon
Jon Alterman 11, director and senior fellow of the Middle East Program at CSIS, Former member of the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State and as a special assistant to the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, June 2011, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of U.S. Power,” http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf 

Whatever the actual cost….. set of actions and statements.

Credibility garnered from transitions solves Iran expansionism
Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf

America’s interest in preventing…. that commitment in practice

Causes regional war and miscalc
Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf

As it struggles to recalibrate its Iran policy…… and game-changing war.

Goes nuclear
James A. Russell, Senior Lecturer, National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, ‘9 (Spring) “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” IFRI, Proliferation Papers, #26, http://www.ifri.org/downloads/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf 

Strategic stability in the region is….. risk for the entire world. 

Their defense is out-dated and overly optimistic
Herbert I. London 10, President Emeritus of Hudson Institute, “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East”, June 23, http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds

The gathering storm in the…. That is a truly bad sign.

\\

2AC Case

Their ev is about the parliament – we solve presidential election
Saikal 7/29/11
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/2815630.html
 Amin Saikal is Professor of Political Science and director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia) at the Australian National University, and author of The Rise and Fall of the Shah: Iran from Autocracy to Religious Rule'(Princeton University Press  2009).  Professor Saikal is a specialist in the politics, history, political economy and international relations of the Middle East and Central Asia. He has been a Visiting Fellow at Princeton University, Cambridge University and the Institute of Development Studies (University of Sussex), as well as a Rockefeller Foundation Fellow in International Relations (1983-1988). In April 2006, he was appointed Member of the Order of Australia (AM) for service to the international community and to education, and as an author and adviser.  

 A parliamentary electoral victory, with support ANDThe result may well be Muslim Brotherhood dominance in Egyptian politics. 

Wins not inevitable
Paciello 11
 Maria Cristina Paciello is researcher for Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Rome and lecturer in
Economic and Political Geography of Development at La Sapienza University of Rome. The author is
indebted to Dr Rym Ayadi, Prof. Abdul-Monem Al Mashat, Prof. Alia El-Mehdi and Dr Nathalie Tocci
for their insightful comments.
 Egypt: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition
Maria Cristina Paciello
MEDPRO Technical Report No. 4/May 2011

Another issue to be AND are extremely reduced.  

No impact to US stigma
Haas, 9/8
(9/8, Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the American Foreign Policy Council, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/09/08/v-print/123482/the-stakes-are-far-too-high-for.html)

America cannot dictate the future AND and later thanked Washington for its efforts.

Anti-Americanism makes their impacts inevitable – we solve
Schenker, 9-15
David Schenker, Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, The Weekly Standard, “Washington's Limited Influence in Egypt”
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1715

While Egyptian officers AND bilateral relationship, however, these U.S. equities may soon be in jeopardy. 

2AC T-Direct Assistance for democratic groups

Direct grants are democracy assistance – that’s abdel-baky – prefer contextual evidence

We meet – civil society is a democratic – the plan trains parties and voters

Counter-interpretation – civil society is T
Huber 8 [Daniela, IR prof at Hebrew University, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62, March, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, p. 45-6, http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/69109__790479070.pdf]

What is Democracy Assistance? AND responsive, and accountable. (USAID, 2005: 4)

They overlimit – aid to democratic parties leaves one aff / country on an already stale topic

Precision – civil society is one of four topical funding categories
Trister 11 (Sarah, Congressional liaison for Freedom House, an NGO dedicated to international research on democracy and human rights, “Investing in Freedom: Analyzing the FY 2012 International Affairs Budget Request,” May, http://freedomhouse.org/uploads/special_report/100.pdf)

Funds that fall under the AND elements of civil society.

Education – we’re the biggest Egypt aff
Campbell 10
Leslie Campbell is senior associate and regional director for the Middle East and north Africa at the National Democratic Institute in the United States.
http://www.ndi.org/files/Party_Building_MENA_Campbell.pdf

Democracy assistance in Egypt, AND, may have changed Egyptian politics in the long term. 

Prefer reasonability – competing interpretations causes a race to the bottom and over incentivizes going for T

2AC Orientalism K

The role of the ballot is to simulate enactment of the plan. That’s the most productive way to engage Mid East politics
Heydemann, director – Program on Philanthropy and Nonprofit Sector @ Social Science Research Council, frmr Prof Poli Sci – Columbia, ‘2
(Steve, “Defending the Discipline,” Journal of Democracy Vol. 13, No. 3, Muse)

Though Kramer's book AND in assessing the rise and decline of political liberalization in the Middle East during the course of the 1990s.

The K doesn’t disprove our truth claims – Mid East scholarship is broad and reflexive – it can effectively integrate critique
Lockman, Chair – Department of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies @ NYU, Spring ‘5
(Zachary, “Critique from the Right: The Neo-conservative Assault on Middle East Studies,” The New Centennial Review 5.1, Muse)

It may be too soon to tell, but AND and dynamics of change that affected large stretches of Eurasia.

Case outweighs – strategic thinking’s inevitable – the Egyptian’s and Israel’s war plans are already drawn up

Perm do both

Perm do the plan and all parts of the alt that don’t explicitly reject the aff

Democracy assistance can incorporate critique
Guilhot, research fellow – Social Science Research Council, prof sociology – LSE, ‘5
(Nicolas, The Democracy Makers, p. 9-10)

The trend toward professionalization AND explain away the trajectory of these agents as a process of defection or conversion. Other models are re¬quired indeed.

Alt doesn’t solve the case – it precludes engagement with indigenous groups

Zero risk of intervention
David Mathieson and, Associate Fellow at FRIDE. He holds a doctorate from the University of London, Richard Youngs 6, Co-ordinator of the Democratisation programme at FRIDE, and lecturer at the University of Warwick, “Democracy Promotion and the European Left: Ambivalence Confused?”, December, working paper 29 at FRIDE

The left needs to get beyond a line AND own internal debates during the 1990s.

Radical participation without prior institution-building devolves into violence and exclusion
Thede, professor of international relations and international development – University du Quebec, ‘11
(Nancy, “Democratic agency in the local political sphere. Reflections on inclusion in Bolivia,” Democratization, 18:1, p. 211 – 235)

The opening of the local political sphere AND negotiations carried out amongst them.

Liberalism can affirm cultural difference and contingency – their critique is a totalizing portrayal of liberalism that destroys progressive change
Arslan, professor of government – Polis Akademisi Güvenlik Bilimleri Fakültesi, ‘99
(Zhutu, “Taking Rights Less Seriously,” Res Publica 5)

Incredulous of foundational truth claims, AND Perhaps they need to begin taking rights more seriously. 

Their links prove the alt fails and the K is incoherent – broad claims of orientalism essentialize the region and destroy specific analysis
David Zarnett Visiting Graduate Student at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem. 2007 Review of “Defending the West: A Critique of Edward Said’s Orientalism” by Ibn Warraq, Prometheus Books, 2007, 500 pp. http://www.dissentmagazine.org/democratiya/article_pdfs/d12Zarnett.pdf

Said described this sentiment AND the important words in that sentence being ‘all victims.’ 

2AC Pressure Israel CP

Perm: Do the counterplan.

Should means “must, or ought” – that’s randomhouse
The counterplan is only a good idea if the plan happens – ergo, it doesn’t contest that the plan ought to happen

Perm do both

Perm do the plan and pressure Israel to disarm

Successful transition IMPROVES Israel ties
Diehl 2/14/11
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/12/AR2011021200483.html
 Jackson Diehl is deputy editorial page editor of The Post. He is an editorial writer specializing in foreign affairs and writes a biweekly column that appears on Mondays. Diehl joined The Post in June 1978 as a reporter on the Metro staff. He joined the foreign desk in 1981, working as a correspondent from January 1982 until July 1992 in three of The Post’s bureaus: Buenos Aires, Warsaw and Jerusalem. From October 1992 until November 2000 Diehl worked in several newsroom management positions, including assistant managing editor/foreign and assistant managing editor/national. He became deputy editorial page editor in February, 2001. Diehl was awarded the Inter-American Press Association Award for Interpretive Journalism in 1984 for his coverage of South America, and the Bob Considine Award of the Overseas Press Association in 1990 for his coverage of the 1989 revolution in Eastern Europe. He was a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize for Editorial Writing in 2011. He is a graduate of Yale University. 

Imagine an Egypt that consistently AND anti-Semitic propaganda. 

Relations unbreakable
Michael Oren 11, Israel’s ambassador to the US, “The Ultimate Ally”, June, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/25/the_ultimate_ally?page=0,5

Israel is the only Middle Eastern AND America's ultimate ally.

No Impact – Prolif will be slow
Waltz 3, adjunct professor of political science at Columbia University
 (Kenneth, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A debate renewed, p 3-4)

What will the spread of nuclear AND a compelling question. 

Prolif inevitable – getting nukes is rational and can’t be dissuaded
Roth, 7
[Ariel Ilan, Associate Director of National Security Studies at the Johns Hopkins University’s Krieger School of Arts and Sciences.  "The Inevitability of a Nuclear Tomorrow: Iran, North Korea and the Rational Desire for Nuclear Weapons" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association 48th Annual Convention, Hilton Chicago, CHICAGO, IL, USA, Feb 28, 2007 http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p178708_index.html]

The case of Israel is AND more uncertain and more scary future 

Condo

2AC-SKFTA

Zero risk of Korean conflict
Ashley Rowland, 12/3/2010. Stars and Stripes. “Despite threats, war not likely in Korea, experts say,” http://www.stripes.com/news/despite-threats-war-not-likely-in-korea-experts-say-1.127344?localLinksEnabled=false.

Despite increasingly belligerent AND in avoiding conflict — they know the first people to be hit in a full-scale fight would be the elites.

Not key to alliance
Cooper, Specialist, International Trade and Finance – CRS, 3/1/’11
(William H, “The Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Provisions and Implications,” http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/key_workplace/813/)

Many observers have argued that in AND and East Asia policy than for U.S.-South Korean relations.

Won’t pass
Good 9/17 (Chris Good, associate editor at The Atlantic, 9-17-2011, “ Republicans Support Obama's Trade Agenda. Do Democrats?” The Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/09/republicans-support-obamas-trade-agenda-do-democrats/245248/)

Next week, Senate Majority Leader AND president's support among his Democratic allies.

Not an opportunity cost – a logical policymaker can pass the plan and FTA’s

Plan is a win for Obama
Lane, editorial board – Washington Post, 2/15/’11
(Charles ,” Obama can reap political capital from revolt in Egypt,” The News Tribune)

If Obama reaches out AND over the rest of his term.

Deficit reduction triggers the link
Tapper 9/18 (Jake, ABC News Blogger, “President Obama to Pitch Higher Taxes and Means-Testing Medicare”, http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/09/president-obama-to-pitch-higher-taxes-and-means-testing-medicare/) 

President Obama on Monday AND and our economic future.”

3rd rail of politics
Quigley 1/25/10
Albuquerque Journal (New Mexico), LN
Winthrop Quigley spent five years at the Journal as a copy editor, general assignments reporter and editorial writer in the 1970s. He returned the Journal in 2000 to cover business news after a 20-year career in product development, marketing and forecasting for a variety of technology companies. He holds a bachelor's degree in economics and an MBA in finance, both earned at the University of New Mexico.

As for controlling costs AND Medicare spending will increase.

Plan is a drop in the bucket – Congress increased aid to Egypt this year

Winner’s win
Green 10 [professor of political science at Hofstra University (David Michael Green, 6/11/10, " The Do-Nothing 44th President ", http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Do-Nothing-44th-Presid-by-David-Michael-Gree-100611-648.html]

Moreover, there is a AND is precisely what they did.

Capital isn’t key
Inside U.S. Trade, 9-16
TIMING OF FTA SUBMISSION REMAINS UNCLEAR, BUT LEE VISIT MAY SPUR ACTION
SECTION: Vol. 29 No. 36
 Notwithstanding any arrangement AND the president of the Senate, before sending it "forthwith" to the President. 

Presidential leadership’s irrelevant
Jacobs and King 10, University of Minnesota, Nuffield College, (Lawrence and Desmond, “Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency,”  Perspectives on Politics (2010), 8: 793-802)  

 But personality is not a solid AND. Presidential sales pitches go only so far.

\\

The role of the ballot is to simulate enactment of the plan. That’s the most productive way to engage Mid East politics
Heydemann, director – Program on Philanthropy and Nonprofit Sector @ Social Science Research Council, frmr Prof Poli Sci – Columbia, ‘2
(Steve, “Defending the Discipline,” Journal of Democracy Vol. 13, No. 3, Muse)

Though Kramer's book
of the 1990s.

The K doesn’t disprove our truth claims – Mid East scholarship is broad and reflexive – it can effectively integrate critique
Lockman, Chair – Department of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies @ NYU, Spring ‘5
(Zachary, “Critique from the Right: The Neo-conservative Assault on Middle East Studies,” The New Centennial Review 5.1, Muse)

It may be too soon
stretches of Eurasia.

An overarching theory of orientalism disables agency – assumes a set discursive pattern satiates all Mid East studies
Philip A. Mellor is a professor in the School of Theology and Religious Studies, University of Leeds.  “Orientalism, representation and religion: the reality behind the myth,” Religion, 2004

The combination of
make any sense. 

Establishing a FIRST principle of anti-racism undermines agonism – struggle must construct a CHAIN OF EQUIVALENCES
JAC 7
http://lilt.ilstu.edu/theory/authors/mouffe.htm
citing MOUFFE -  Chantal Mouffe (born 1943 in Charleroi, Belgium) is a Belgian political theorist. She holds a professorship at the Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Westminster in the United Kingdom. She is best known as co-author of Hegemony and Socialist Strategy with Ernesto Laclau. Their thoughts are usually described as post-Marxism as they were both politically active in the social and student movements of the 1960s including working class and new social movements (notably second-wave feminism in Mouffe's case). They rejected Marxist economic determinism and the notion of class struggle being the single crucial antagonism in society. Instead they urged for radical democracy of agonistic pluralism where all antagonisms could be expressed. In their opinion, ‘...there is no possibility of society without antagonism’; indeed, without the forces that articulate a vision of society, it could not exist. 

Given this sense
put in question

Exclusion’s INEVITABLE – channeling it into agonism is key to level the playing field
GLOVER 8
Glover, Robert. "Scattergories: Towards an Agonistic Critique of the Re-Categorization of American Citizenship in a Globalized Era" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the APSA 2008 Annual Meeting, Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts, Aug 28, 2008 <Not Available>. 2011-03-11 http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p278147_index.html Ph.D. Candidate, Political Science, University of Connecticut Primary Fields: Political Theory, International Relations Dissertation Title: Citizenship Unhinged—Exploring the Potential of Agonistic Citizenship, Ph.D. Projected Completion Spring of 2010.

Agonistic pluralism, or agonism
with one another. 

Attempting to banish exclusion is the root of all violence
Hatab, 02
(Lawrence J. Professor of Philosophy at Old Dominion University 2002 Prospects for a Democratic Agon Why We can still be Nietzscheans: The Journal of Nietzsche p.MUSE)

How can we begin
in democratic politics.

Discourse focus destroys agency – assuming a set reaction to certain speech codes hijacks political resistance and turns the alt
Brown, professor of political science and women’s studies – Berkeley, ‘1
(Wendy, Politics Out of History, p. 35-6)

 “Speech codes kill critique
Don’t mourn, moralize.

Setting the goal of the alternative as ending white supremacy entirely is politically ineffective-reforming whiteness to resolve the impacts of oppression is better
Sullivan 8 – Shannon Sullivan, Head of Philosophy and Professor of Philosophy, Women's Studies, and African and African American Studies at Pennsylvania State University, Spring 2008, “Whiteness as Wise Provincialism: Royce and the Rehabilitation of a Racial Category,” Transactions of the Charles S. Peirce Society: A Quarterly Journal in American Philosophy, Vol. 44, No. 2

 It is commonly acknowledged
anti-racist category. 

Racial constructions are inevitable – means the alt only conceals the underlying structures of whiteness
Sullivan 8 – Shannon Sullivan, Head of Philosophy and Professor of Philosophy, Women's Studies, and African and African American Studies at Pennsylvania State University, Spring 2008, “Whiteness as Wise Provincialism: Royce and the Rehabilitation of a Racial Category,” Transactions of the Charles S. Peirce Society: A Quarterly Journal in American Philosophy, Vol. 44, No. 2

 While much more
figure out an answer. 

Alt cedes whiteness to White Supremacists  
Sullivan 8 – Shannon Sullivan, Head of Philosophy and Professor of Philosophy, Women's Studies, and African and African American Studies at Pennsylvania State University, Spring 2008, “Whiteness as Wise Provincialism: Royce and the Rehabilitation of a Racial Category,” Transactions of the Charles S. Peirce Society: A Quarterly Journal in American Philosophy, Vol. 44, No. 2

 In a similar fashion
anti-racist ways.18 

Their epistemology re-entrenches racism – its Afrocentrist paradigm solidifies a false essential black identity
Adeleke, 9
[Tunde Adeleke is Professor of History and Director of the African American Studies program at the University of Montana. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Western Ontario “The Case Against Afrocentrism,” p.87-93]

 The Afrocentric perspective
platform of struggle.76 

Means only the permutation can solve racism – we should recognize the multifaceted aspect of black identity that includes the American experience
Adeleke, 9
[Tunde Adeleke is Professor of History and Director of the African American Studies program at the University of Montana. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Western Ontario “The Case Against Afrocentrism,” p. 189]

 The use of Africa
problematic and indefensible. 

Whiteness overtheorizes and underexplains violence – best historical analysis goes aff
Kolchin 2, Professor of History at Delaware University, (Peter, “ Whiteness Studies: The New History of Race in America,”  The Journal of American History, Vol. 89, No. 1 (Jun., 2002), pp. 154-173, JSTOR) 

 The central question
political ideology and behavior.28 

No one root cause – proximate cause focus and empirical research are key
Shelby 5, Professor of African and African American Studies and of Philosophy at Harvard, (Tommie, “We Who Are Dark: The Philosophical Foundations of Black Solidarity,” Google Books)  

 Others might challenge
funding for higher education). 

We control uniqueness – violence declining
Pinker, Prof Psychology – Harvard, 3/19/‘7
(Steven, “A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE,” The New Republic)

In the decade of Darfur
deadly ethnic riots.

ROUND 1 – 1AR

War turns any root cause
Goldstein, professor of IR – American University, ‘1
(Joshua S, War and Gender: How Gender Shapes the War System and Vice Versa, pg. 412) 

First, peace activists
be empirically inadequate.10

agonism demands TRUTH TESTING of imagined PRAGMATIC POLICY changes
GLOVER 8
Glover, Robert. "Scattergories: Towards an Agonistic Critique of the Re-Categorization of American Citizenship in a Globalized Era" Paper presented at the annual meeting of the APSA 2008 Annual Meeting, Hynes Convention Center, Boston, Massachusetts, Aug 28, 2008 <Not Available>. 2011-03-11 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p278147_index.html>
Ph.D. Candidate, Political Science, University of Connecticut Primary Fields: Political Theory, International Relations Dissertation Title: Citizenship Unhinged—Exploring the Potential of Agonistic Citizenship, Ph.D. Projected Completion Spring of 2010.

 In place of the outright
“politics of the perhaps”.

Authenticity tests shut down debate– it’s strategically a disaster
SUBOTNIK 98
Professor of Law, Touro College, Jacob D. Fuchsberg Law Center.
7 Cornell J. L. & Pub. Pol'y 681

Having traced a major
streets and the airwaves.

authenticity through the body as the standard destroys our ability to do intersectional analysis.  it’s politically suffocating
Suleri 92
Post colonial studies reader, google books
Sara Suleri Goodyear, born Sara Suleri, is an author and, since 1983, professor of English at Yale University
Suleri was born in Pakistan when it was still a part of India under the British Raj. She received her B.A. at Kinnaird College, in Lahore, in 1974. Two years later, she was awarded an M.A. from Punjab University, and went on to graduate with a Ph.D. from Indiana University in 1983.

In the context of
a feminist language.

We can include local agency with Western civil society
Kurki, Professor of International Politics – Aberystwyth University, ‘10
(Milja, “Democracy and Conceptual Contestability: Reconsidering Conceptions of Democracy in Democracy Promotion,” International Studies Review Vol. 12, Iss. 3, September)

Pluralization of ideas
policies on the ground.

Pluralizing democracy within the established framework of democracy assistance is the best way to implement the alt
Kurki, Professor of International Politics – Aberystwyth University, ‘10
(Milja, “Democracy and Conceptual Contestability: Reconsidering Conceptions of Democracy in Democracy Promotion,” International Studies Review Vol. 12, Iss. 3, September)

To think of such
community-based participatory democracy.

\\

ROUND 6 – 2AC

Doesn’t take out solvency
Young 11, editor of the Daily Star newspaper in Beirut, (Michael, "Arab Spring gives US a new chance in the Middle East," August 25, www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/arab-spring-gives-us-a-new-chance-in-the-middle-east?pageCount=0

Barack Obama has not
world in thrilling flux.

Iran is key to overall US influence in the Middle East
Amitai Etzioni 11, professor of international relations at George Washington, “Shifting Sands”, The Journal of International Security Affairs, Spring/Summer 2011, no 20

One can, however
increasingly volatile region.

Nuclear war
Barnett, Professor, Warfare Analysis and Research Dept – U.S. Naval War College, 3/7/’11
(Thomas, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads)

Events in Libya
state-based conflicts.

We solve Anti-Americanism, which makes their impacts inevitable
Schenker, 9-15
David Schenker, Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, The Weekly Standard, “Washington's Limited Influence in Egypt”
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1715

While Egyptian officers
soon be in jeopardy. 

No impact to crackdowns
Amira Maaty 11, program officer on the MENA team of the NED, “Civil society a force in Egypt’s democratization”, April 29, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/04/civil-society-a-force-in-egypts-democratization/

In the run- up
outside the capital.

US – SCAF relations resilient
Dunne, 11
(Scholar-Middle East Institute and former staff member of the U.S. National Security Council, 2/12, http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/middleeast/2011/02/12/after-mubarak/)

First, the ability
retrenchment if it does not.

No impact to US stigma
Haas, 9/8
(9/8, Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the American Foreign Policy Council, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/09/08/v-print/123482/the-stakes-are-far-too-high-for.html)

America cannot dictate
Washington for its efforts.

The role of the ballot is to simulate enactment of the plan. That’s the most productive way to engage Mid East politics
Heydemann, director – Program on Philanthropy and Nonprofit Sector @ Social Science Research Council, frmr Prof Poli Sci – Columbia, ‘2
(Steve, “Defending the Discipline,” Journal of Democracy Vol. 13, No. 3, Muse)

Though Kramer's book
course of the 1990s.

Method focus causes endless paradigm wars
Wendt, professor of international security – Ohio State University, ‘98
(Alexander, “On Constitution and Causation in International Relations,” British International Studies Association) 

As a community
caricatures of science.

Liberalism can affirm cultural difference and contingency – their critique is a totalizing portrayal of liberalism that destroys progressive change
Arslan, professor of government – Polis Akademisi Güvenlik Bilimleri Fakültesi, ‘99
(Zhutu, “Taking Rights Less Seriously,” Res Publica 5)

Incredulous of foundational
rights more seriously. 

The alt’s friend/enemy distinctions inevitably collapse and leads to preemptive warfare.
Alberto Moreiras 5, professor of romance studies at duke, “Preemptive Manhunt: a New Partisanship,” positions: east asia cultures critique, 13 (1), pg. 16-18

Let us assume
the French revolution") (69).  

Turkey has no experience
Turkish Policy Quarterly 11
http://www.turkishpolicy.com/dosyalar/files/Yeni%20Microsoft%20Word%20Belgesi.pdf
 Turkish Policy Quarterly is an Istanbul-based journal published on a quarterly basis since 2002. It mainly aims to foster original thinking and stronger policy debates on Turkey and its neighborhood. Each issue focuses on a global or regional theme in an interdisciplinary fashion and includes a range of perspectives from authors of different countries and backgrounds. TPQ focuses largely on Turkey’s neighborhood, but with a global outlook, and bridges research with policy-making, and East with West. 

Nevertheless, countries in transition
academia and civil society.  

Turkish ties with Egypt are Israel’s worst nightmare
Shabi 9/15/11
Al jazeeera staff
http://moroccoworldnews.com/2011/09/turkeys-regional-power-play/

 Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s
at least redrawn.  

Obama key to signal
Lina Khatib 11, Program Manager at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford University, “The Arab Spring Casts Obama as United States Public Diplomacy Messenger”, August 25, http://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/index.php/newswire/cpdblog_detail/the_arab_spring_casts_obama_as_united_states_public_diplomacy_messenger/

Why is it that Obama
in the Arab world.

Turkey can’t translate diplomatic resources into power
Grunstein 11
Judah, “Turkey and the Arab Spring”, World Politics Review's editor-in-chief. His coverage of French politics, foreign policy and national security has appeared in World Politics Review, the American Prospect online, French Politics, the Small Wars Journal and Foreign Policy online
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trend-lines/8764/turkey-and-the-arab-spring

 Moreover, and supporting
regional influence is behind it. 

No risk of Balkan escalation
Ivan Eland, director of defense policy studies at the Cato Institute, May 3, ‘99, Cato Daily Commentary, “The War against Serbia: Illusion Versus Reality,” http://www.cato.org/cgi-bin/scripts/printtech.cgi/dailys/05-03-99.html

Those perceived interests
American vital interests.

No risk of backsliding
Ikenson, 9
[Daniel, associate director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, “ A Protectionism Fling: Why Tariff Hikes and Other Trade Barriers Will Be Short-Lived,” March 12, 2009, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10651]

Although some governments
through policy constraints.  

Doesn’t solve trade
Wolf, 7
[Martin,  a British journalist, widely considered to be one of the world's most influential writers on economics “ A Korean-American strand enters trade’s spaghetti bowl,” http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8bc2c2d4-e1f6-11db-af9e-000b5df10621.html#axzz1DAwJqa6V]

At a first glance
likely to be completed.

Won’t pass
Good, 9-17  conclusion of article
Chris Good, associate editor at The Atlantic, 9-17-2011, “ Republicans Support Obama's Trade Agenda. Do Democrats?” The Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/09/republicans-support-obamas-trade-agenda-do-democrats/245248/

Next week, Senate
his Democratic allies.

Amendments
Inside U.S. Trade, 9-16
MARANTIS WARNS AGAINST SENATE AMENDMENTS TO TAA AS POTENTIAL THREAT
SECTION: Vol. 29 No. 36

 Deputy U.S. Trade
TAA without amendments.

Plan is a win for Obama
Lane, editorial board – Washington Post, 2/15/’11
(Charles ,” Obama can reap political capital from revolt in Egypt,” The News Tribune)

If Obama reaches out
the rest of his term.

The aff doesn’t spend new money
Hanley 5/13/11
http://www.news-sentinel.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/SE/20110313/NEWS/103140302
 By Charles J. Hanley
of The Associated Press 

The NDI, affiliated
funding previously planned. 

No PC and going all in on jobs bill
Kellar, 9-14
Brianna Kellar, CNN White House Correspondent, 9-14-2011, “Obama to GOP: You’re either with me or you’re against me,” CNN, http://whitehouse.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/14/obama-to-gop-youre-either-with-me-or-youre-against-me/

 Senior administration officials
Obama is going all in. 

And, Solyndra
NYT 9-15, "Furor Over Loans to Failed Solar Firm," lexis

Republican lawmakers, escalating
connection with the loan.

Winner’s win
Green 10 [professor of political science at Hofstra University (David Michael Green, 6/11/10, " The Do-Nothing 44th President ", http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Do-Nothing-44th-Presid-by-David-Michael-Gree-100611-648.html]

Moreover, there is
what they did.

Capital isn’t key – everyone agrees on a TAA+FTA deal – they’re only discussing procedure and process
 Inside U.S. Trade, 9-16
TIMING OF FTA SUBMISSION REMAINS UNCLEAR, BUT LEE VISIT MAY SPUR ACTION
SECTION: Vol. 29 No. 36

 Notwithstanding any arrangement
"forthwith" to the President. 

US credibility against Iran key to Asian security alliances
Michael Mazza 11, senior research associate in Asian Studies in the Foreign and Defense Policy Studies department at the American Enterprise Institute, “China-Iran Ties: Assessment and Implications for U.S. Policy”, April 21, http://www.irantracker.org/analysis/michael-mazza-china-iran-ties-assessment-and-implications-us-policy-april-21-2011

The success or failure
credibility in the region.

Doesn’t turn the case – Palestine not key to Arab Spring perceptions
Joffe, 11
Josef Joffe, Stanford Univ IR Fellow, 4/26/11, The Arab Spring and The Palestine Distraction , http://www.hoover.org/news/daily-report/76576

In politics, shoddy theories
for peace abroad.

No spillover—the US is expending capital by threatening funding programs—the plan doesn’t change this strategy
Munayyer, 9/18
Yousef Munayyer, Al Jazeera, 9/18/11, All alone on Israel island , http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/09/201191785718812831.html

Despite vast international
promote Palestinian aspirations.

No Palestine vote—logistical issues
Express India, 9/14
Express India, staff writer, 9/14/11, Difficult to have a Palestine vote next week: UN, http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/Difficult-to-have-a-Palestine-vote-next-week--UN/846523/

On whether there
Nassir Abdulaziz Al-Nasser.]

Syria trades off with dip focus
Reuters, staff writer, 9/13/11, In Syria, U.S. ambassador drops diplomatic niceties, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/13/us-syria-usa-ambassador-idUSTRE78C77K20110913

The United States, meanwhile
ensure that this happens."

No impact—won’t hurt US cred in the UN
de Nesnera, 9/16
Andre de Nesnera, VOA News, 9/16/11, Analysts: Palestinian UN Bid Likely to Fail, http://www.voanews.com/english/news/news-analysis/Analysts-Palestinian-UN-Bid-Likely-to-Fail-129971898.html

But John Bolton, former
the Security Council,” he said.

UN fails and not key to global problems—coalitions solves
Haas, 10
Richard Haas, CFR President, 1/5/2010, The Case for Messy Multilateralism, http://www.cfr.org/publication/21132/case_for_messy_multilateralism.html?breadcrumb=%2Fissue%2F42%2Fun

But to acknowledge
what we are used to.

Iranian influence de-stabilizes Latin America
Farrah 9
Douglas, “Iran in Latin America: An Overview”, Senior Fellow, International Assessment and Strategy Center
http://www.douglasfarah.com/pdfs/20090620_DFIraninLatAmJune2009-1.pdf

Multiple factors, when
underestimated or dismissed. 

Global War
Coronel 7
Petroleum geologist, author and public policy expert, A possible political scenario for Latin America, 2007-2012, http://muevete.wordpress.com/2007/09/18/a-possible-political-scenario-for-latin-america-2007-2012/

 Still, there is no
threat to world stability.

ROUND 6 – 1AR

NGO’s can survive backlash
Gamal Essam El-Din 11, reporter for Al-Ahram Weekly, “US aid to Egypt's civil society: a need, a blessing and a curse”, August 5, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContentP/1/17749/Egypt/US-aid-to-Egypts-civil-society-a-need,-a-blessing-.aspx

Not only has USAID
NGOs are not for nothing.

Empirics
Paul S Rowe 11, Associate Professor of Political Studies at the Trinity Western University, “Civil Society in a New Egypt”, February 18, http://www.cardus.ca/comment/article/2519/

But I'm inclined to be
citizenship in a new Egypt.

Non-unique and inevitable
Stasser 7/22/11
 Max Strasser is a writer and editor based in Cairo.
http://www.thenation.com/article/162239/can-usaid-be-force-good-egypt

Five months after
goes to the military. 

They’ll take our money regardless
Business Today Egypt 4/5/11
http://www.businesstodayegypt.com/news/display/article/artId:63

 While this accusation
do the same thing.”  

Most recent ev
Democracy Digest 8/10/11
http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/08/egypts-democracy-aid-backlash-a-strategy-to-control-civil-society/

While media reports
and civic organizations. 

Empirics prove UN fails
Polakow-Suransky, 9
Sasha Polakow-Suransky, American Prospect staff writer, 12/17/2009, Hope Against History,' http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=hope_against_history

But whether or not
fail," he concludes.

No chance of UN funding cuts
Patrick, 9/2
Stewart Patrick, CFR Senior Fellow, 9/2/11, The GOP's Misguided Campaign Against the United Nations, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/09/the-gops-misguided-campaign-against-the-united-nations/244495/

By crippling the UN's
and a committed internationalist).

\\

FINALS – 2AC

Muslim Brotherhood takeover causes Mid-East prolif cascades
Sokolski, 11
Henry Sokolski, executive director of The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, 2/8/11, Gimme Fuel, Gimme Fire, http://www.tnr.com/print/article/82995/nuclear-weapons-middle-east-obama-mubarak

Even more dangerously
U.S. nuclear cooperation.

Nuke war
Allison, 6
Graham Allison, Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs director, 3/18/2006,"The Nightmare This Time," http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/1525/nightmare_this_time.html?breadcrumb=%2Fproject%2F58%2Fquarterly_journal%3Fparent_id%3D46

In 1962, bilateral competition
regional nuclear war.

Makes their impacts inevitable
Schenker, 9-15
David Schenker, Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, The Weekly Standard, “Washington's Limited Influence in Egypt”
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1715

While Egyptian officers
soon be in jeopardy. 

No impact to crackdowns
Amira Maaty 11, program officer on the MENA team of the NED, “Civil society a force in Egypt’s democratization”, April 29, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/04/civil-society-a-force-in-egypts-democratization/

In the run- up
outside the capital.

US – SCAF relations resilient
Dunne, 11
(Scholar-Middle East Institute and former staff member of the U.S. National Security Council, 2/12, http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/middleeast/2011/02/12/after-mubarak/)

First, the ability of
if it does not.

They’ll take the presidency and the parliament
Saikal 7/29/11
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/2815630.html
 Amin Saikal is Professor of Political Science and director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and Central Asia) at the Australian National University, and author of The Rise and Fall of the Shah: Iran from Autocracy to Religious Rule'(Princeton University Press  2009).  Professor Saikal is a specialist in the politics, history, political economy and international relations of the Middle East and Central Asia. He has been a Visiting Fellow at Princeton University, Cambridge University and the Institute of Development Studies (University of Sussex), as well as a Rockefeller Foundation Fellow in International Relations (1983-1988). In April 2006, he was appointed Member of the Order of Australia (AM) for service to the international community and to education, and as an author and adviser.  

 A parliamentary electoral
dominance in Egyptian politics. 

No alt causePalestine not key to Arab Spring perceptions
Joffe, 11
Josef Joffe, Stanford Univ IR Fellow, 4/26/11, The Arab Spring and The Palestine Distraction , http://www.hoover.org/news/daily-report/76576

In politics, shoddy theories
for peace abroad.

Doesn’t take out solvency
Young 11, editor of the Daily Star newspaper in Beirut, (Michael, "Arab Spring gives US a new chance in the Middle East," August 25, www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/arab-spring-gives-us-a-new-chance-in-the-middle-east?pageCount=0

Barack Obama has not
world in thrilling flux.

Iranian influence de-stabilizes Latin America
Farrah 9
Douglas, “Iran in Latin America: An Overview”, Senior Fellow, International Assessment and Strategy Center
http://www.douglasfarah.com/pdfs/20090620_DFIraninLatAmJune2009-1.pdf

Multiple factors, when
underestimated or dismissed. 

Global War
Coronel 7
Petroleum geologist, author and public policy expert, A possible political scenario for Latin America, 2007-2012, http://muevete.wordpress.com/2007/09/18/a-possible-political-scenario-for-latin-america-2007-2012/

 Still, there is no doubt
threat to world stability.

The role of the ballot is to simulate enactment of the plan. That’s the most productive way to engage Mid East politics
Heydemann, director – Program on Philanthropy and Nonprofit Sector @ Social Science Research Council, frmr Prof Poli Sci – Columbia, ‘2
(Steve, “Defending the Discipline,” Journal of Democracy Vol. 13, No. 3, Muse)

Though Kramer's book
course of the 1990s.

The K doesn’t disprove our truth claims – Mid East scholarship is broad and reflexive – it can effectively integrate critique
Lockman, Chair – Department of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies @ NYU, Spring ‘5
(Zachary, “Critique from the Right: The Neo-conservative Assault on Middle East Studies,” The New Centennial Review 5.1, Muse)

It may be too soon
large stretches of Eurasia.

Their links prove the alt fails and the K is incoherent – broad claims of orientalism essentialize the region and destroy specific analysis
David Zarnett Visiting Graduate Student at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem. 2007 Review of “Defending the West: A Critique of Edward Said’s Orientalism” by Ibn Warraq, Prometheus Books, 2007, 500 pp. http://www.dissentmagazine.org/democratiya/article_pdfs/d12Zarnett.pdf

Said described this
sentence being ‘all victims.’ 

Radical participation without prior institution-building devolves into violence and exclusion
Thede, professor of international relations and international development – University du Quebec, ‘11
(Nancy, “Democratic agency in the local political sphere. Reflections on inclusion in Bolivia,” Democratization, 18:1, p. 211 – 235)

The opening of the local
carried out amongst them.

US stance on reform makes or breaks Al-Qaeda
Zarate and Gordon summer 11
 Juan C. Zarate is a Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism (2005— 2009). He can be reached at jzarate@csis.org. David A. Gordon is the Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project. He can be reached at dgordon@csis.org. Both are working on a year-long CSIS study on the future of al-Qaeda and its associated movements  
 Copyright # 2011 Center for Strategic and International Studies
The Washington Quarterly • 34:3 pp. 103 122
DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2011.588305 

If inadequate reform
movements in the region. 

Nuclear terror inevitable now
Us Russia Joint Threat Assessment May 11
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Joint-Threat-Assessment%20ENG%2027%20May%202011.pdf
 ABOUT THE U.S.-RUSSIA JOINT THREAT ASSESSMENT ON NUCLEAR TERRORISM The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism is a collaborative project of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the U.S.A. and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences led by Rolf Mowatt-Larssen and Pavel Zolotarev. Authors: • Matthew Bunn. Associate Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School and Co-Principal Investigator of Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. • Colonel Yuri Morozov (retired Russian Armed Forces). Professor of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences and senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, chief of department at the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, 1995–2000. • Rolf Mowatt-Larssen. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence at the U.S. Department of Energy, 2005–2008. • Simon Saradzhyan. Fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Moscow-based defense and security expert and writer, 1993–2008. • William Tobey. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and director of the U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism, deputy administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, 2006–2009. • Colonel General Viktor I. Yesin (retired Russian Armed Forces). Senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and advisor to commander of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, chief of staff of the Strategic Missile Forces, 1994–1996. • Major General Pavel S. Zolotarev (retired Russian Armed Forces). Deputy director of the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and head of the Information and Analysis Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense, 1993–1997, deputy chief of staff of the Defense Council of Russia, 1997–1998. Contributor: • Vladimir Lukov, director general of autonomous non-profit organization “Counter-Terrorism Center.” 

The expert community
nuclear terrorism occurs. 

Extinction
Ayson 10, Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (“After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

But these two nuclear
meet with a devastating response.

6 degree warming inevitable
AP 9 (Associated Press, Six Degree Temperature Rise by 2100 is Inevitable: UNEP, September 24, http://www.speedy-fit.co.uk/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=168)

Earth's temperature is likely
every 20 to 25 years.

Can’t solve warming – no agreement
Manning 8/23 (Paddy, Sydney Morning Herald, 8/23/2011, “Outlook gloomy on global warming: Deutsche”, http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/outlook-gloomy-on-global-warming-deutsche-20110823-1j82k.html)

Deutsche Bank's head
Mr Jordan said. 

Not key to alliance
Cooper, Specialist, International Trade and Finance – CRS, 3/1/’11
(William H, “The Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Provisions and Implications,” http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/key_workplace/813/)

Many observers have
South Korean relations.

No risk of backsliding to protectionism
Ikenson, 9
[Daniel, associate director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, “ A Protectionism Fling: Why Tariff Hikes and Other Trade Barriers Will Be Short-Lived,” March 12, 2009, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10651]

Although some governments
through policy constraints.  

Doesn’t solve trade
Wolf, 7
[Martin,  a British journalist, widely considered to be one of the world's most influential writers on economics “ A Korean-American strand enters trade’s spaghetti bowl,” http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8bc2c2d4-e1f6-11db-af9e-000b5df10621.html#axzz1DAwJqa6V]

At a first glance
likely to be completed.

Won’t pass
Good 9/17 (Chris Good, associate editor at The Atlantic, 9-17-2011, “ Republicans Support Obama's Trade Agenda. Do Democrats?” The Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/09/republicans-support-obamas-trade-agenda-do-democrats/245248/)

Next week, Senate
his Democratic allies.

Deficit reduction triggers the link
Tapper 9/18 (Jake, ABC News Blogger, “President Obama to Pitch Higher Taxes and Means-Testing Medicare”, http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/09/president-obama-to-pitch-higher-taxes-and-means-testing-medicare/) 

President Obama on
our economic future.”

3rd rail of politics
Quigley 1/25/10
Albuquerque Journal (New Mexico), LN
Winthrop Quigley spent five years at the Journal as a copy editor, general assignments reporter and editorial writer in the 1970s. He returned the Journal in 2000 to cover business news after a 20-year career in product development, marketing and forecasting for a variety of technology companies. He holds a bachelor's degree in economics and an MBA in finance, both earned at the University of New Mexico.

As for controlling costs
spending will increase.

Israel lobby’s non-unique
Gerstein, 9/16
Josh Gerstein, Politico, staff writer, 9/16/11, Obama's Palestine problem, http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=4B512899-5B26-444E-8492-2484D0ED35A3

The confrontation threatens
President Bill Clinton.

KORUS causes rising expectations – kills alliance and causes Korean adventurism
Lee and Kim 10,  Phd, assistant professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Korea University (Dong and Sung, “ Ties That Bind? Assessing the Impact of Economic Interdependence on East Asian Alliances,” East Asia Institute, Security Initiative, Working Paper No. 3, http://www.eai.or.kr/data/bbs/eng_report/201002251819214.pdf) 

In the long run
enduring security alliance. 

Causes war
Raska, PhD candidate – Public Policy @ National University of Singapore, 11/26/’10
(Michael, “Why Can’t South Korea Retaliate?” http://www.spp.nus.edu.sg/OpEds_26Nov10_Michael_Raska.aspx) 

However, this week’s
broader regional crisis.

KORUS is perceived as containing China
Kim, Research Fellow – Sejong Institute, PhD IR – UT Austin, May ‘11
(Chi-Wook, “South Korea’s Business Sectors and Transformation of ROKUS Alliance: A Case Study of KORUS FTA,” http://www.eai.or.kr/data/bbs/eng_report/20110526144316.pdf)

Finally, the caveat
the global stage.

Causes war
Glaser, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs – George Washington University, ‘11
(Charles, “Will China’s Rise Lead to War?” Foreign Affairs Vol. 9 Iss. 2, March/April)

REALIST ANALYSES of
and military capabilities.

Nuclear war
Glaser, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs – George Washington University, ‘11
(Charles, “Will China’s Rise Lead to War?” Foreign Affairs Vol. 9 Iss. 2, March/April)

THE PROSPECTS for
U.S.-Chinese relations.

Capital isn’t key
Inside U.S. Trade, 9-16
TIMING OF FTA SUBMISSION REMAINS UNCLEAR, BUT LEE VISIT MAY SPUR ACTION
SECTION: Vol. 29 No. 36

 Notwithstanding any arrangement
"forthwith" to the President. 

Presidential leadership’s irrelevant
Jacobs and King 10, University of Minnesota, Nuffield College, (Lawrence and Desmond, “Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency,”  Perspectives on Politics (2010), 8: 793-802)  

 But personality is not
go only so far.

Amendments derail FTA’s
Inside US Trade 9/16 (“MARANTIS WARNS AGAINST SENATE AMENDMENTS TO TAA AS POTENTIAL THREAT”, Lexis)

Deputy U.S. Trade
TAA without amendments.

FINALS – 1AR

Believing that a nuclear WMD terrorist attack is possible is necessary to prevent it from happening
Allison, 10 – professor of government and director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard (1/25/10, Graham, “A Failure to Imagine the Worst: The first step toward preventing a nuclear 9/11 is believing it could happen,”
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/25/a_failure_to_imagine_the_worst?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full, JMP)

In his first speech
determination to pursue it.

Threat construction in terms of terror is good – censorship precludes prevention
Rychlak 10 (Ronald, Professor of Law and Associate Dean for Academic Affairs, University of Mississippi School of Law; adviser to the Holy See's delegation to the United Nations., http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/onfaith/panelists/ronald_rychlak/2010/07/the_language_of_counter-terrorism.html)

What we call terrorists
also find peace.

Zero risk of intervention
David Mathieson and, Associate Fellow at FRIDE. He holds a doctorate from the University of London, Richard Youngs 6, Co-ordinator of the Democratisation programme at FRIDE, and lecturer at the University of Warwick, “Democracy Promotion and the European Left: Ambivalence Confused?”, December, working paper 29 at FRIDE

The left needs
during the 1990s.

Democracy discourse doesn’t cause lash-out or public support for intervention
Mueller, Poli Sci – Ohio St University, 6/15/’7
(John, “Faulty Correlation, Foolish Consistency, Fatal Consequence: Democracy, Peace, and Theory in the Middle East,” http://psweb.sbs.ohio-state.edu/faculty/jmueller/KENT2.PDF)

It should be noted
American businesses abroad (see Figure 1).

And, paradigm wars result – constant critique of epistemology can’t create alternatives – that’s Wendt. In the context of democracy assistance, that destroys the alt
Gerald Hyman, director of the Office of Democracy and Governance of the U.S. Agency for International Development's Bureau for Europe and Eurasia, 2002, Debating the Transition Paradigm: Tilting at Straw Men, Journal of Democracy 13.3 (2002) 26-32

So, to parody
with these challenges.

Reality outweighs representations
Wendt, 1999
Alexander Wendt, Professor of International Security at Ohio State University, 1999, “Social theory of international politics,” gbooks

The effects of holding
extra-linguistic world. 

Plan - The United States federal government should substantially increase civil society support to Egyptian non-governmental organizations. 

 Adv 1 transition 

 Advantage one is the transition – it’s failing 

 -Liberals and the SCAF are trapped in a loop of protest and repression 

 Hamid and Plumbly 7/14/11 

 Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center Samuel Plumbly, Research Assistant, Brookings Doha Center 

 For nearly two months, from January… 

voting booth

 and the ballot box. 

 -Specifically, the SCAF is cracking down on Coptic christians 

 Doug 

Bandow 11

, senior fellow at the Cato Institute, “What Kind of Revolution?”, 7-13, 

Ugly reality has dashed the…

 Christians, are feeling the pressure. 

 -Egyptian religious tolerance solves attacks on minorities throughout the region 

 Bandow 9/5/11 

 Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and the senior fellow in international religious persecution at the Institute on Religion and Public Policy. A former special assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is author of &#34;Beyond Good Intentions: A Biblical View of Politics&#34; (Crossway). 

 Nina Shea fears &#34;what we&#39;re…

the rest of the Middle East

. 

 -Religious pluralism solves the tyranny of the majority and prevents religious conflict 

 Briggs 10/23/10 

 David Briggs, a former national writer for The Associated Press who holds a master’s degree from Yale Divinity School, is consistently honored among the Top 10 secular religion writers and reporters in North America. He writes the Ahead of the Trend column for the Association of Religion Data Archives. 

Many Americans would be happy… freedoms are my religious freedoms.&#34; 

 -The plan is key to liberal participation in the new government 

 Trager, September/October 11 

 Eric Trager, the Ira Weiner Fellow at The Washington Institute, is a Ph.D. candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, where his research focuses on Egyptian opposition parties. He was in Egypt during the 2011 anti-Mubarak revolts, and his writings have appeared in Foreign Affairs, the Atlantic, and the New Republic, among many other publications. From 2006-2007, Mr. Trager lived in Egypt as an Islamic Civilizations Fulbright fellow, where he studied at the American University in Cairo and received his M.A. in Arabic studies with a concentration in Islamic studies. He served as a research assistant at The Washington Institute from 2005 to 2006 upon graduation from Harvard University with a degree in government and language citations in Arabic and Hebrew. 

Washington should view the recent rise…

 youths of Tahrir Square fought so valiantly. 

 -Liberal success key to protect religious minorities 

 Ghitis 3/24/11 

 Frida Ghitis is a world affairs columnist, author and consultant. She started her career at CNN, where she worked initially as a show producer, a unit manager for major news operations and later as a producer and correspondent covering mostly international news. In addition to CNN, her work has appeared in the Washington Post, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer, NRC Handelsblad (Netherlands) and in scores of publications in the U.S., Europe, the Middle East and beyond. Her regular column on global affairs in the Miami Herald is distributed worldwide by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services. Her weekly WPR column, World Citizen, appears every Thursday. She has worked in all corners of the world, traveling in Iraq during and after the rule of Saddam Hussein. She worked in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt during Desert Storm. She covered the wars in Bosnia and Kosovo, and has worked independently in Tibet, Burma, Kuwait, Argentina, Cambodia, Colombia, and dozens of places in between. Her work has taken her to the Amazon jungles of South America, to Russia, Brazil, India, Somalia, and elsewhere. As a consultant, she advises organizations operating or contemplating projects in diverse regions of the world, providing political analysis and forecasting. She is a public speaker on world affairs and the author of &#34;The End of Revolution: A Changing World in the Age of Live Television 

The real 

rewriting of the constitution

…

 after their victory over autocracy. 

 -Protestors will boycott the election – tanks the transition 

 Lynch 9/6/11 

 Marc Lynch is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University. 

 But in some ways the turnout… 

achieving a 

democratic Egypt

. 

 -Destabilizes the Sinai – goes nuclear 

 Zitun 9/5/11 

 staff writer, quoting Senior IDF officer 

 IDF general: 

Likelihood of regional war…

approved for publication by censorship officials. 

 -Extinction 

 Louis René 

Beres 8-17

, prof of poli sci and international law at Purdue, “Israel, anarchy and global chaos”, 

 In history, 

there is a powerful difference…

 These effects would be chaotic. 

 -US direct grants to independent NGOs solve Egyptian confidence in the transition 

Schenker 7/25/11 

David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, from where this monograph, of which this is part 6, is adapted. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; in that capacity he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. 

As Egypt approaches this crossroads…

for a transition to a democratic system. 

 -BUILDING CONFIDENCE among LIBERAL GROUPS solves STREET PROTEST 

 Paciello 11 

 Maria Cristina Paciello is researcher for Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Rome and lecturer in 

 Economic and Political Geography of Development at La Sapienza University of Rome. The author is 

 indebted to Dr Rym Ayadi, Prof. Abdul-Monem Al Mashat, Prof. Alia El-Mehdi and Dr Nathalie Tocci 

 for their insightful comments. Egypt: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition Maria Cristina Paciello 

 MEDPRO Technical Report No. 4/May 2011 

 While the direction of Egypt’s political… 

to democracy 

moves forward

. 

 -Anti-Americanism now – we solve 

 Thiessen, 11 

 (Visiting Fellow-AEI, 2/15, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/14/AR2011021403059.html) 

 The extraordinary scenes in Cairo…

 not too late to win them back

. 

 -That’s key to future US access to the Suez 

 , 9-15 

 David Schenker, 

Aufzien fellow and director of the 

 at The Washington Institute, The Weekly Standard, “Washington&#39;s Limited Influence in Egypt”
 

 While Egyptian officers clearly appreciate…

may

 soon 

be in jeopardy

. 

-Collapses US leadership 

 Wood, 11 

(Chief Military Correspondent-Politics Daily, 2/5, http://www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/) 

Also suddenly 

at risk

, along with Bright Star…

mean fewer daily sorties. 

 -Nuclear war 

Barnett

, Professor, Warfare Analysis and Research Dept – U.S. Naval War College, 3/7/

’11 

 (Thomas, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” ) 

 Events in Libya are a further reminder… 

from state-based conflicts. 

-

States will inevitably compete for relative status – only primacy can prevent conflict 

Wohlforth 9

, Professor of government at Dartmouth, (William, “Unipolarity, Status Competition, and Great Power War” World Politics, 61:1, January, Project Muse) 

Second, I question the dominant view…

security and/or prosperity. 

 Advantage two is Iran 

 -The plan reinvigorates U.S. regional credibility – our stance on Egypt is key 

 Hamid 4/26/11 

 Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center 

 The revolutions are far from complete… 

their revolutions may still fail. - 

 Support for democratic processes is crucial 

 Amjad 

Atallah and

, Co-Director of the Middle East Task Force at the New America Foundation, Daniel 

Levy 11

, Senior Research Fellow and Co-Director of the Middle East Task Force at the New America Foundation. He is also a Senior Fellow at The Century Foundation. He serves as a co-editor of The Middle East Channel, an online initiative of Foreign Policy Magazine, “America, Welcome to the Era of Arab Democracy”, February 10, 

 Across the Middle East, and most dramatically… 

shifting emphasis away from the latter

. 

 -Nothing else matters 

 Michele 

Kelemen 11

, covers the State Department for NPR, “U.S. Could Use Egypt To Boost Credibility, Some Say”, February 11, 

 Miller says this is part of a… sure there are real reforms. 

 -The US must transition to an ideational model of Mid East engagement or risk total irrelevance – Egypt is the key 

 Peter 

Fettner 11

, prof and PhD candidate in philosophy at Temple, published writer and researcher on US foreign policy, (writing under the pseudonym Byron), “Investigative Analysis: Soft Power in the Middle East – Reforming American Foreign Policy”, August 26, 

It’s easy to read the revolutions…

forced the U

nited 

S

tates 

to respond

. 

 -Perception of US weakness emboldens Iran and causes other countries to bandwagon 

 Jon 

Alterman 11

, director and senior fellow of the Middle East Program at CSIS, Former member of the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State and as a special assistant to the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, June 2011, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of U.S. Power,” http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf 

Whatever the actual cost, and even if the durable…

 set of actions

 and stateme

nts

. 

 -Credibility garnered from transitions solves Iran expansionism 

 Marc 

Lynch 11

, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, 

America’s interest in preventing Iran…

demonstrate that commitment in practice

. 

 -Causes regional war and miscalc 

 Marc 

Lynch 11

, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, 

As it struggles to recalibrate its Iran policy…

produce 

sudden and game-changing war

. 

 -Goes nuclear 

 James A. 

Russell,

 Senior Lecturer, National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, 

‘9

 (Spring) “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” IFRI, Proliferation Papers, #26, http://www.ifri.org/downloads/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf 

Strategic stability

 in the region…

for the entire world

. 

 -Their defense is out-dated and overly optimistic 

 Herbert I. 

London 10

, President Emeritus of Hudson Institute, “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East”, June 23, 

The

 gathering 

storm in the Middle East

…

veracity. That is a

 truly 

bad sign

.

(% class="MsoNormal" %) = (% lang="X-NONE" %)1ac – adv 1(%%) = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Advantage One is Coptic Christians ~-~- (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Greater religious influence in Egyptian politics is inevitable – the plan is key to US engagement (% class="MsoNormal" %) Will (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__Inboden 11__**(%%), Assistant Professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs and Distinguished Scholar at the Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the University of Texas-Austin. He is also a Non-Resident Fellow with the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Previously he served as Senior Vice President of the Legatum Institute and as Senior Director for Strategic Planning on the National Security Council at the White House. Inboden also worked at the Department of State as a Member of the Policy Planning Staff and a Special Advisor in the Office of International Religious Freedom. He is the author of Religion and American Foreign Policy, 1945-1960: The Soul of Containment (2008) and a contributing editor at Foreign Policy magazine. Inboden received his PhD, MPhil, and MA degrees in history from Yale University, and his AB from Stanford University, “Religious Freedom in Egypt”, May 9, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)In Egypt one of these … course, for good or for ill(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)That’s key to moderate Muslim Brotherhood foreign policy (% class="MsoNormal" %) Daniel (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__Philpott 11__**(%%) – date inferred, Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and the Joan B. Kroc Institute for Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame, “Daniel Philpott on Islam: A Friend or Foe of Democracy in the New Egypt?”, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Will Islam impel or impede …(% class="UnderlineBold" %)that the U.S. is on their side(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)MB extremists will start a war with Israel (% class="Cite" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Meir-Levi 9/7/11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) http:~/~/frontpagemag.com/2011/09/07/nine-fronts-in-the-next-war/2/ (% class="MsoNormal" %) David Meir-Levi is an American-born Israeli currently living in Palo Alto. He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University, and an MA in Near Eastern Studies from Brandeis University. He taught Archaeology and Near Eastern History at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem and at the University of Tel Aviv during the 60's and 70's. Upon returning to the USA, Mr. Meir-Levi has worked as a professional Jewish educator, most recently in the San Francisco Bay Area. Since the outbreak of the second Intifada (9/28/00), he has lectured throughout northern California at synagogues, churches, universities, and service organizations on topics related to the history of the Arab-Israel conflict and the roots of terrorism in the Arab world. He has most recently taught a series of courses at San Jose State University, UC Davis, Cal-Poly Institute, and at the Monterey Institute for International Studies, on the history of the Israel-Arab conflict. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="UnderlineBold" %)Igniting (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)a (%%)new (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)war between Israel (%%)…(% class="Underline" %) (%%)even more so than during its 1948 war of survival. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Extinction (% class="MsoNormal" %) Louis René (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__Beres 8-17__**(%%), prof of poli sci and international law at Purdue, “Israel, anarchy and global chaos”, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) In history, (% class="Underline" %)there is a powerful …(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %) overwhelming(%%). These effects would be chaotic. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)The Sinai is uniquely destabilizing – guarantees nuclear use (% class="Cite" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Zitun 9/5/11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) staff writer, quoting Senior IDF officer (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) IDF general: (% class="Underline" %)Likelihood of regional … approved for publication by censorship officials. (%%) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Independently, the SCAF is cracking down on Coptic Christians (% class="MsoNormal" %) Doug (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__Bandow 11__**(%%), senior fellow at the Cato Institute, “What Kind of Revolution?”, 7-13, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Ugly reality has dashed …(%%)Christians, are feeling the pressure. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Religious freedom, specifically for Copts, is the to transition success (% class="MsoNormal" %) Thomas F. (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__Farr 11__**(%%), visiting associate professor of religion and international affairs at the (% class="MsoNormal" %) Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. He is a senior fellow at (% class="MsoNormal" %) Georgetown's Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, where he directs the (% class="MsoNormal" %) Religious Freedom Project and the program on Religion and US Foreign Policy. He also directs (% class="MsoNormal" %) the Task Force on International Religious Freedom for the Witherspoon Institute in Princeton, (% class="MsoNormal" %) N.J. He is a member of the Board of Advisors of the John Templeton Foundation, “Prioritizing International Religious Freedom in US Foreign Policy”, June 3, http:~/~/www.hsdl.org/?view&did=4124 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) But there is another reason ..(% class="Underline" %) extremist Islamist forces(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Failure causes mass exodus – destabilizes the whole Middle East (% class="MsoNormal" %) Doug (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__Bandow 11__**(%%), senior fellow at the Cato Institute, “What Kind of Revolution?”, 7-13, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) The Wall Street Journal …(% class="UnderlineBold" %) (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)go the rest of the Middle East(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Goes nuclear (% class="MsoNormal" %) James A. (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__Russell,__**(%%) Senior Lecturer, National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, (% class="CiteChar" lang="X-NONE" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)‘9(%%) (Spring) “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” IFRI, Proliferation Papers, #26, http:~/~/www.ifri.org/downloads/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="UnderlineBold" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Strategic stability(% class="UnderlineBold" %) … with substantial risk for the entire world(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Secularism backfires – endorsing religious pluralism via engagement is key (% class="MsoNormal" %) Daniel (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__Philpott et al 11__**(%%), associate professor of political science and peace studies at the University of Notre Dame. Timothy Shah is associate director of the Religious Freedom Project at Georgetown University’s Berkley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs. Monica Duffy Toft is associate professor of public policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and director of the Initiative on Religion in International Affairs, “The dangers of secularism in the Middle East”, August 11, http:~/~/www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2011/0811/The-dangers-of-secularism-in-the-Middle-East (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Since the Arab Spring …(% class="Underline" %) American interests and ideals(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) = (% lang="X-NONE" %)1ac – adv 2(%%) = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Advantage two is religious freedom ~-~- (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)US promotion of religious freedom is a joke – the plan is the key signal to reinvigorate IFRA’s global credibility (% class="MsoNormal" %) Thomas F (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__Farr 11__**(%%), visiting associate professor of religion and international affairs at the (% class="MsoNormal" %) Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. He is a senior fellow at (% class="MsoNormal" %) Georgetown's Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, where he directs the (% class="MsoNormal" %) Religious Freedom Project and the program on Religion and US Foreign Policy. He also directs (% class="MsoNormal" %) the Task Force on International Religious Freedom for the Witherspoon Institute in Princeton, (% class="MsoNormal" %) N.J. He is a member of the Board of Advisors of the John Templeton Foundation, “Where lies wisdom, where folly?”, February 14, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)A dearth of religious freedom …(% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %) freedom no role as a prospective antidote(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)The copts are key (% class="Cite" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Weigel, 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Senior Fellow-Ethics and Public Policy Center http:~/~/www.nationalreview.com/corner/258498/egypts-coptic-christians-deserve-word-president-obama-george-weigel) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="text-decoration: none;" %)__ __ (% class="MsoNormal" %) __If and (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)when(%%) the (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Obama(%%) administration (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)…**defend religious freedom in full**(%%)__. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Religious freedom solves conflict escalation (% class="Cite" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Farr 8 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 5pt;" %)WORLD OF FAITH AND FREEDOM, P. GOOGLE BOOKS (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 5pt;" %)Thomas F. Farr is Director of the Religious Freedom Project at the Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs and a Visiting Associate Professor of Religion and International Affairs at Georgetown’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. A former American diplomat and leading authority on international religious freedom, Farr has published widely, including "Diplomacy in an Age of Faith" in Foreign Affairs (March/April 2008), and World of Faith and Freedom: Why International Religious Liberty is Vital to American National Security (Oxford University Press, 2008). Farr received his BA in history from Mercer University, and his Ph.D. in modern British and European history from the University of North Carolina. After a distinguished career in the US Army and the Foreign Service, Farr served as the first director of the State Department's Office of International Religious Freedom from 1999-2003. In that capacity he traveled widely to promote religious liberty, engaging religious communities, government officials, and the victims of religious persecution. Dr. Farr’s publications include “The Bush Administration and America’s International Religious Freedom Policy,” with William L. Saunders, Jr., in Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy; “International Religious Freedom and American National Security in the 21st Century,” in the Drake Law Review; “Bringing Religion Back into International Religious Freedom Policy,” in Jonathan Chaplin, ed., God and Global Order (Baylor University Press); “Public Diplomacy in an Age of Faith,” with Jennifer Marshall, in Philip Seib, ed., American Public Diplomacy: Reinventing U.S. Foreign Policy (Palgrave Macmillan); and “American Religious Freedom Policy,” in Alfred Stepan, Monica Toft and Timothy Samuel Shah, eds., Religion and International Affairs (Columbia University Press). Dr. Farr has testified on international religious freedom policy before the US Congress. He has made presentations on religion and foreign policy at a wide variety of government agencies, think tanks and universities, including the Department of State, the Congressional Task Force on Religious Freedom, the Library of Congress, the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, the Woodrow Wilson Center, the Ethics and Public Policy Center, the Heritage Foundation, the Federalist Society, Tufts, Princeton, Georgetown, Drake University Law School, Brigham Young Law School, the Catholic University of America, Wheaton College, and Mount St. Mary’s College. He recently delivered a series of lectures to American diplomats at the Foreign Service Institute. Farr is a member of the Chicago World Affairs Council Task Force on Religion and US Foreign Policy. He is vice chair of the board of Christian Solidarity Worldwide-USA and a contributing editor to The Review of Faith and International Affairs. He is the recipient of the Jan Karski Wellspring of Freedom Award, presented by the Institute on Religion and Public Policy for contributions to international religious freedom. Under Farr's leadership, the Religion and US Foreign Policy Program has sponsored a series of major symposia with the support of the Luce/SFS program on Religion and International Relations. These included symposia on “Islam, Constitutions and Durable Democracy: The Cases of Iraq and Afghanistan” and “Religion in Israeli Society, Politics and Foreign Policy.” In 2008, during the tenth anniversary of the 1998 International Religious Freedom Act, Farr organized three symposia on various aspects of international religious freedom policy. Out of these symposia came The Future of U.S. International Religious Freedom Policy: Recommendations for the Obama Administration (co-authored with Dennis R. Hoover) and the Berkley Center’s Report on the Georgetown Symposia on U.S. International Religious Freedom Policy. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) If American diplomacy is … of course, (% class="UnderlineBold" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;" %)conflicts and wars.”(% style="font-size: 6pt; font-family: Scala-Caps;" %)24 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)US endorsement of religious freedom solves Al Qaeda ideology globally (% class="MsoNormal" %) Thomas (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__Farr 9-23__**(%%), visiting associate professor of religion and international affairs at the (% class="MsoNormal" %) Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. He is a senior fellow at (% class="MsoNormal" %) Georgetown's Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, where he directs the (% class="MsoNormal" %) Religious Freedom Project and the program on Religion and US Foreign Policy. He also directs (% class="MsoNormal" %) the Task Force on International Religious Freedom for the Witherspoon Institute in Princeton, (% class="MsoNormal" %) N.J. He is a member of the Board of Advisors of the John Templeton Foundation, “Preventing Another Attack: International Religious Freedom”, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)What if(%%) Osama (% class="Underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Bin Laden had been(% class="Underline" %) … given a chance to find out(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)The US is key (% class="Cite" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Zarate and Gordon summer 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Juan C. Zarate is a Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism (2005— 2009). He can be reached at jzarate@csis.org. David A. Gordon is the Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project. He can be reached at dgordon@csis.org. Both are working on a year-long CSIS study on the future of al-Qaeda and its associated movements (% class="MsoNormal" %) Copyright # 2011 Center for Strategic and International Studies (% class="MsoNormal" %) The Washington Quarterly • 34:3 pp. 103122 (% class="MsoNormal" %) DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2011.588305 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Though (% class="Underline" %)the United States(%%) needs …(% class="Underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %) of the end(% class="Underline" %) of the long war(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Nuclear terror attack’s inevitable now (% class="Cite" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Us Russia Joint Threat Assessment May 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) http:~/~/belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Joint-Threat-Assessment%20ENG%2027%20May%202011.pdf (% class="MsoNormal" %) ABOUT THE U.S.-RUSSIA JOINT THREAT ASSESSMENT ON NUCLEAR TERRORISM The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism is a collaborative project of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the U.S.A. and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences led by Rolf Mowatt-Larssen and Pavel Zolotarev. Authors: • Matthew Bunn. Associate Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School and Co-Principal Investigator of Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. • Colonel Yuri Morozov (retired Russian Armed Forces). Professor of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences and senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, chief of department at the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, 1995–2000. • Rolf Mowatt-Larssen. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence at the U.S. Department of Energy, 2005–2008. • Simon Saradzhyan. Fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Moscow-based defense and security expert and writer, 1993–2008. • William Tobey. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and director of the U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism, deputy administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, 2006–2009. • Colonel General Viktor I. Yesin (retired Russian Armed Forces). Senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and advisor to commander of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, chief of staff of the Strategic Missile Forces, 1994–1996. • Major General Pavel S. Zolotarev (retired Russian Armed Forces). Deputy director of the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and head of the Information and Analysis Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense, 1993–1997, deputy chief of staff of the Defense Council of Russia, 1997–1998. Contributor: • Vladimir Lukov, director general of autonomous non-profit organization “Counter-Terrorism Center.” (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)The expert community distinguishes …(% class="UnderlineBold" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)he first act of nuclear terrorism occurs(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)The motivation’s there – acquisition and delivery are easy (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**Bunn 10**(%%), Associate Professor of Public Policy at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, (Matthew, “Securing the Bomb 2010,” PROJECT ON MANAGING THE ATOM BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS HARVARD KENNEDY SCHOOL HARVARD UNIVERSITY COMMISSIONED BY THE NUCLEAR THREAT INITIATIVE, April, ) ) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)Complacency about the threat is … extraordinarily difficult challenge.20 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Extinction (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__Ayson 10__**(%%), Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (“After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 7pt;" %)But these two nuclear worlds—… probably still meet with a devastating response. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Lack of religious freedom and weak civil society destabilizes China (% class="MsoNormal" %) Leonard (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__Leo and__**(%%) Don (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__Argue 11__**(%%), Leonard is the Chairman of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), Don is Vice Chairman of USCIRF, “Confronting China's Failure on Religious Freedom”, January 19, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)Religion(%%), like capitalism, (% class="Underline" %)…, freedom of religion and belief is no luxury, but a necessity(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)China will either reform or collapse – US involvement is key (% class="MsoNormal" %) Thomas F (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__Farr 8__**(%%), visiting associate professor of religion and international affairs at the (% class="MsoNormal" %) Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. He is a senior fellow at (% class="MsoNormal" %) Georgetown's Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, where he directs the (% class="MsoNormal" %) Religious Freedom Project and the program on Religion and US Foreign Policy. He also directs (% class="MsoNormal" %) the Task Force on International Religious Freedom for the Witherspoon Institute in Princeton, (% class="MsoNormal" %) N.J. He is a member of the Board of Advisors of the John Templeton Foundation, “Bringing Religion into International Religious Freedom Policy”, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)Religion has(%%) also …(% class="Underline" style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %) this(% class="Underline" %) problem(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Collapse causes extinction (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__Yee__**(%%), Associate Professor of Government @ Hong Kong Baptist University, and Storey, Asian-Pacific Center for Security Studies, (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__‘2__** (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Herbert and Ian, __China Threat: Perception, Myths, and Reality__, p. 5) (% class="NormalText" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 8pt;" %)The fourth factor contributing …(% class="Underline" %) and (% style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% aqua;" %)the world(% style="font-size: 8pt;" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Stable transition __with religious freedom__ solves lashout (% class="Cite" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Zhou 10 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Zhou, assistant professor of Asian Languages and Cultures at HWS, cited on his faculty bio for Hobart and Willima Smith Colleges (% class="MsoNormal" %) Jinghao Zhou, assistant professor of Asian Languages and Cultures at HWS, has recently published "China's Peaceful Rise in a Global Context: A Domestic Aspect of China's Road Map to Democratization" (Lexington Books, 2010). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) According to Zhou, (% class="Underline" %)China's …(%%) harmonious society. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Religious conflict goes global and nuclear – also causes Taiwan war (% class="Cite" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Farr 8 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)WORLD OF FAITH AND FREEDOM, P. GOOGLE BOOKS (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size: 6pt;" %)Thomas F. Farr is Director of the Religious Freedom Project at the Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs and a Visiting Associate Professor of Religion and International Affairs at Georgetown’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. A former American diplomat and leading authority on international religious freedom, Farr has published widely, including "Diplomacy in an Age of Faith" in Foreign Affairs (March/April 2008), and World of Faith and Freedom: Why International Religious Liberty is Vital to American National Security (Oxford University Press, 2008). Farr received his BA in history from Mercer University, and his Ph.D. in modern British and European history from the University of North Carolina. After a distinguished career in the US Army and the Foreign Service, Farr served as the first director of the State Department's Office of International Religious Freedom from 1999-2003. In that capacity he traveled widely to promote religious liberty, engaging religious communities, government officials, and the victims of religious persecution. Dr. Farr’s publications include “The Bush Administration and America’s International Religious Freedom Policy,” with William L. Saunders, Jr., in Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy; “International Religious Freedom and American National Security in the 21st Century,” in the Drake Law Review; “Bringing Religion Back into International Religious Freedom Policy,” in Jonathan Chaplin, ed., God and Global Order (Baylor University Press); “Public Diplomacy in an Age of Faith,” with Jennifer Marshall, in Philip Seib, ed., American Public Diplomacy: Reinventing U.S. Foreign Policy (Palgrave Macmillan); and “American Religious Freedom Policy,” in Alfred Stepan, Monica Toft and Timothy Samuel Shah, eds., Religion and International Affairs (Columbia University Press). Dr. Farr has testified on international religious freedom policy before the US Congress. He has made presentations on religion and foreign policy at a wide variety of government agencies, think tanks and universities, including the Department of State, the Congressional Task Force on Religious Freedom, the Library of Congress, the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, the Woodrow Wilson Center, the Ethics and Public Policy Center, the Heritage Foundation, the Federalist Society, Tufts, Princeton, Georgetown, Drake University Law School, Brigham Young Law School, the Catholic University of America, Wheaton College, and Mount St. Mary’s College. He recently delivered a series of lectures to American diplomats at the Foreign Service Institute. Farr is a member of the Chicago World Affairs Council Task Force on Religion and US Foreign Policy. He is vice chair of the board of Christian Solidarity Worldwide-USA and a contributing editor to The Review of Faith and International Affairs. He is the recipient of the Jan Karski Wellspring of Freedom Award, presented by the Institute on Religion and Public Policy for contributions to international religious freedom. Under Farr's leadership, the Religion and US Foreign Policy Program has sponsored a series of major symposia with the support of the Luce/SFS program on Religion and International Relations. These included symposia on “Islam, Constitutions and Durable Democracy: The Cases of Iraq and Afghanistan” and “Religion in Israeli Society, Politics and Foreign Policy.” In 2008, during the tenth anniversary of the 1998 International Religious Freedom Act, Farr organized three symposia on various aspects of international religious freedom policy. Out of these symposia came The Future of U.S. International Religious Freedom Policy: Recommendations for the Obama Administration (co-authored with Dennis R. Hoover) and the Berkley Center’s Report on the Georgetown Symposia on U.S. International Religious Freedom Policy. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) The Importance of China to … to U.S.-China relations. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Extinction (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="CiteChar" lang="X-NONE" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Glaser(%%), Professor of Political Science and International Affairs – George Washington University, (% class="CiteChar" lang="X-NONE" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)‘11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Charles, “Will China’s Rise Lead to War?” //Foreign Affairs// Vol. 9 Iss. 2, March/April) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) THE PROSPECTS for avoiding … poisoning of U.S.-Chinese relations. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Their defense is based on outdated assumptions (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="CiteChar" lang="X-NONE" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)Christensen(%%), Professor World Politics of Peace and War – Princeton University, (% class="CiteChar" lang="X-NONE" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)‘11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Thomas J, “The Advantages of an Assertive China,” //Foreign Affairs// Vol. 9 Iss. 2, March/April) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)What explains the …(%%) the opportunity costs of China's diplomatic truculence. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)RF agency funding now (% class="MsoNormal" %) Michelle (% style="font-size: 12pt;" %)**__Boorstein 11__**(%%), Washington Post religion reporter, “Bill to beef up religious freedom in U.S. foreign policy gets warm reception”, 6-3, (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Might the United States … and agencies,” the bill reads. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="X-NONE" %)Egypt aid up (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="CiteChar" lang="X-NONE" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)McInerney(%%), Executive Director – Project on Middle East Democracy, (% class="CiteChar" lang="X-NONE" style="font-size: 12pt;" %)‘11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Stephen, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012, DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST,” POMED, July) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Across various … yet been obligated. (% class="MsoNormal" %)

plan texts

The United States federal government should substantially increase civil society direct grants to Egyptian unregistered non-governmental organizations. 

1ac – mechanics

Democracy assistance to Egypt WAS direct aid to NGOs 

Abdel-Baky 8/18/11 

 al-ahram staff 

 &#34;USAID has contributed …Ministry of State for International Cooperation. 

The US WAFFLED – assistance is channeled through the government 

De Los Reyes 8/16/11 

 As a senior staff writer, Che focuses on international development breaking news coverage as well as interviews and features. Prior to joining Devex, Che handled communications for local and international development NGOs and government institutions in the Philippines. 

After months

of … and control by ministry employees over the distribution of funds

. 

1ac – transition

Advantage one is the transition – it’s failing 

Liberals and the SCAF are trapped in a loop of protest and repression 

Hamid and Plumbly 7/14/11 

 Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center 

 Samuel Plumbly, Research Assistant, Brookings Doha Center 

 For nearly two months, from January … less glamorous venue—

the voting booth

 and the ballot box. 

Collapse of SCAF control is inevitable – the Muslim Brotherhood will takeover 

Cook 8/29/11 

 STEVEN A. COOK is Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author of The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square, to be published this fall. Foreign Affairs. 

 In the weeks and months since 

…

should 

not even bother trying

.

Muslim Brotherhood causes Israeli troop buildup 

Zacharia 2/4/11 

 Washington Post Staff Writer 

Israelis are looking fearfully beyond

 …. controls Gaza and rejects Israel&#39;s existence. 

tanks the economy 

Al-Naami 7/19/11 

 Master’s degree in policy studies specializing in Israeli Studies from Jerusalem University and is currently working on his doctoral thesis. At the moment he is a lecturer in the Economics and Political Science Department at the Islamic University in Gaza. He is also a researcher and journalist specializing in Israeli affairs 

 Despite reservations by business … immigration, and 

an increase in reverse migration. 

Key to tech sector 

Israel Strategist May 11 

 IsraelStrategist.com is a resource on the Israeli economy and the range of investment opportunities that Israel presents. Our audience includes novice investors with minimal knowledge about Israel and its financial markets; sophisticated investors who have experience in Israeli markets; and everyone in between. IsraelStrategist.com is premised on the idea that Israel presents a compelling investment opportunity and that the story behind why Israel has become such an attractive investment is worth telling 

 People marvel at how a country …

they developed modern drip irrigation

 as a way to turn their arid land into an agricultural success. 

Israel water tech key to global water scarcity solutions 

Oren 9 

 Booky Oren, Chairman of Watec Israel 2009 and Miya, the Arison Group 

 The water sector is continuing to grow. 

…the world as a whole

. 

Water wars go nuclear 

Weiner, ‘90 

 Prof. Princeton, 

 The Next 100 Years p.270 

 If we do not destroy ourselves … the world has stockpiled since Trinity. 

Brotherhood influence is inevitable – the plan creates a counterweight to prevent a political monopoly 

Trager, September/October 11 

 Eric Trager, the Ira Weiner Fellow at The Washington Institute, is a Ph.D. candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, where his research focuses on Egyptian opposition parties. He was in Egypt during the 2011 anti-Mubarak revolts, and his writings have appeared in Foreign Affairs, the Atlantic, and the New Republic, among many other publications. From 2006-2007, Mr. Trager lived in Egypt as an Islamic Civilizations Fulbright fellow, where he studied at the American University in Cairo and received his M.A. in Arabic studies with a concentration in Islamic studies. He served as a research assistant at The Washington Institute from 2005 to 2006 upon graduation from Harvard University with a degree in government and language citations in Arabic and Hebrew. 

Washington should view the recent …

 which the youths of Tahrir Square fought so valiantly. 

Protestors will boycott the election – tanks the transition 

Lynch 9/6/11 

 Marc Lynch is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University. 

 But in some ways the turnout …

 hopes of achieving a 

democratic Egypt

. 

Stopping street protests also key to Egypt-Israeli relations 

Jerusalem Post editorial 9/11/11 

 The Jerusalem Post is an Israeli daily English-language broadsheet newspaper, founded on December 1, 1932 by Gershon Agron as The Palestine Post. The daily readership numbers (tens of thousands) do not approach those of the major Hebrew newspapers. While it was once regarded as left-wing, the paper underwent a noticeable shift to the right in the late 1980s.[3] After 2004, under the editorial leadership of Editor-in-Chief David Horovitz, a non-partisan, more inclusive editorial line was fostered. Today the Post features columns and opinion articles spanning the political spectrum. 

 Shortly after thousands … make the transition to the post- Mubarak era 

Strong relations solve their impacts 

Satloff, 11 

 Robert Satloff, executive director of The Washington Institute9/26/11, “Hanging by a Thread,” http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/opedsPDFs/4e68e438f05fd.pdf 

IT’S THE GRANDDADDY OF ALL

…

 era an impossible task. But 

the stakes are too high not to try. 

US direct grants to independent NGOs solve Egyptian confidence in the transition 

Schenker 7/25/11 

David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, from where this monograph, of which this is part 6, is adapted. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; in that capacity he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. 

 As Egypt approaches this crossroads, …

 rule,

 for a transition to a democratic system. 

BUILDING CONFIDENCE among LIBERAL GROUPS solves STREET PROTEST 

Paciello 11 

 Maria Cristina Paciello is researcher for Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Rome and lecturer in 

 Economic and Political Geography of Development at La Sapienza University of Rome. The author is 

 indebted to Dr Rym Ayadi, Prof. Abdul-Monem Al Mashat, Prof. Alia El-Mehdi and Dr Nathalie Tocci 

 for their insightful comments. 

 Egypt: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition 

 Maria Cristina Paciello 

 MEDPRO Technical Report No. 4/May 2011 

 While the direction of Egypt’s ….

that 

Egypt’s transition

 to democracy 

moves forward

. 

Anti-Americanism now – we solve 

Thiessen, 11 

 (Visiting Fellow-AEI, 2/15, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/14/AR2011021403059.html) 

 The extraordinary scenes in ….

not too late to win them back

. 

1ac – regional cred

Advantage two is Iran 

The plan reinvigorates U.S. regional credibility – our stance on Egypt is key 

Hamid 4/26/11 

 Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center 

 The revolutions are far …

 to follow. Otherwise, their revolutions may still fail. 

Support for democratic processes is crucial 

 Amjad 

Atallah and

, Co-Director of the Middle East Task Force at the New America Foundation, Daniel 

Levy 11

, Senior Research Fellow and Co-Director of the Middle East Task Force at the New America Foundation. He is also a Senior Fellow at The Century Foundation. He serves as a co-editor of The Middle East Channel, an online initiative of Foreign Policy Magazine, “America, Welcome to the Era of Arab Democracy”, February 10, 

 Across the Middle East, and most …

shifting emphasis away from the latter

. 

Nothing else matters 

 Michele 

Kelemen 11

, covers the State Department for NPR, “U.S. Could Use Egypt To Boost Credibility, Some Say”, February 11, 

 Miller says this is part of a … card to make sure there are real reforms. 

The US must transition to an ideational model of Mid East engagement or risk total irrelevance – Egypt is the key 

 Peter 

Fettner 11

, prof and PhD candidate in philosophy at Temple, published writer and researcher on US foreign policy, (writing under the pseudonym Byron), “Investigative Analysis: Soft Power in the Middle East – Reforming American Foreign Policy”, August 26, 

It’s easy to read the revolutions …

forced the U

nited 

S

tates 

to respond

. 

Perception of US weakness emboldens Iran and causes other countries to bandwagon 

 Jon 

Alterman 11

, director and senior fellow of the Middle East Program at CSIS, Former member of the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State and as a special assistant to the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, June 2011, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of U.S. Power,” http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf 

Whatever the actual cost, … 

through a discrete set of actions

 and stateme

nts

. 

Credibility garnered from transitions solves Iran expansionism 

 Marc 

Lynch 11

, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, 

America’s interest in preventing … and demonstrate that commitment in practice

. 

Causes regional war and miscalc 

 Marc 

Lynch 11

, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, 

As it struggles to recalibrate its Iran …

 combine to 

produce 

sudden and game-changing war

. 

Goes nuclear 

 James A. 

Russell,

 Senior Lecturer, National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, 

‘9

 (Spring) “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” IFRI, Proliferation Papers, #26, http://www.ifri.org/downloads/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf 

Strategic stability

 in the region 

is

 … 

region, with substantial risk for the entire world

. 

Their defense is out-dated and overly optimistic 

 Herbert I. 

London 10

, President Emeritus of Hudson Institute, “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East”, June 23, 

The

 gathering 

storm in the Middle East …believe in its veracity. That is a

 truly 

bad sign

. 

2ac – MB

 The brotherhood hasn’t “moderated” 

 Radosh, 11 

 Ronald Radosh, adjunct fellow at the Hudson Institute; Prof. Emeritus of History at the City University of New York, 2/16/11, The Real Face of the Muslim Brotherhood ,http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&#38;id=7727 

 At present, the Brotherhood …

 in a new democratic Egypt. 

 We solve Anti-Americanism, which makes their impacts inevitable 

 , 9-15 

 David Schenker, 

Aufzien fellow and director of the 

 at The Washington Institute, The Weekly Standard, “Washington&#39;s Limited Influence in Egypt”
 

 While Egyptian officers clearly …

 soon 

be in jeopardy

. 

 No impact to crackdowns 

 Amira 

Maaty 11

, program officer on the MENA team of the NED, “Civil society a force in Egypt’s democratization”, April 29, 

 In the run- up to Egypt’s … as groups based outside the capital. 

 US – SCAF relations resilient 

 Dunne, 11 

 (Scholar-Middle East Institute and former staff member of the U.S. National Security Council, 2/12, http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/middleeast/2011/02/12/after-mubarak/) 

 First, the ability of the … if it does not. 

 No chance that they’ll close the Suez 

 Bouasria, 11 

 (Prof-Arab Studies-Intl Center for Language Studies, 4/21, https://store.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=13047) 

In addition, 

ending U.S. 

… 

devastating

. 

 No impact to US stigma 

 Haas, 9/8 

 (9/8, Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the American Foreign Policy Council, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/09/08/v-print/123482/the-stakes-are-far-too-high-for.html) 

America cannot dictate …

 Washington for its efforts

. 

2ac – water

 Water depletion causes indo-pak war – swamps other factors 

 Wirsing and Jasparro 6 

. 

ROBERT G. WIRSING, Ph.D. 

Dr. Robert G. Wirsing came to the Asia-Pacific Center from the University of South Carolina where he was Professor of International Studies and a member of the Department of Government and International Studies since 1971. His primary research interests focus on the contemporary politics, international relations, and defense and security issues of South Asia. 

 Dr. 

Christopher Jasparro

 is a researcher at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, Hawaii !!EMPHASIS NOT IN ORIGINAL!! 

 When speaking of 

…

 even more difficult 

 Extinction 

 Fai 1 

 (Ghulam Nabi, Executive Director, Kashmiri American Council, Washington Times, 7-8) 

 The foreign policy … not justify complacency. 

 T = 

 Counter-interpretation – civil society is T 

Huber 8

 [Daniela, IR prof at Hebrew University, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62, March, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, p. 45-6, http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/69109__790479070.pdf] 

What is 

Democracy Assistanc

e? …

 accountable

. (USAID, 2005: 4) 

 Precision – civil society is one of four topical funding categories 

Trister 11

 (Sarah, Congressional liaison for Freedom House, an NGO dedicated to international research on democracy and human rights, “Investing in Freedom: Analyzing the FY 2012 International Affairs Budget Request,” May, ) 

Funds that fall under the … other elements of civil society

. 

 Education – we’re the biggest Egypt aff 

 Campbell 10 

 Leslie Campbell is senior associate and regional director for the Middle East and north Africa at the National Democratic Institute in the United States. 

http://www.ndi.org/files/Party_Building_MENA_Campbell.pdf 

Democracy assistance in Egypt,

 … Egyptian politics in the long term. 

2ac – korus

 KORUS doesn’t spill over 

Wolf, 7 

 [Martin, a British journalist, widely considered to be one of the world&#39;s most influential writers on economics “ A Korean-American strand enters trade’s spaghetti bowl,” ] 

 At a first glance, 

the new 

…

 even 

less likely to be completed

. 

 US credibility against Iran key to Asian security alliances 

 Michael 

Mazza 11

, senior research associate in Asian Studies in the Foreign and Defense Policy Studies department at the American Enterprise Institute, “China-Iran Ties: Assessment and Implications for U.S. Policy”, April 21, 

The success or failure of 

…

credibility in the region. 

 Uniqueness outweighs the link 

 Devaney, 9-22 

 Tim Devaney, staff writer, 9-22-2011, “Senate passes worker aid bill tied to delayed trade deals,” Washington Times, 

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/sep/22/senate-passes-worker-aid-bill-tied-to-delayed-trad/?page=all#pagebreak 

 Most recently, 

the … for the greater good. 

 The aff doesn’t spend new money 

Hanley 5/13/11 

By Charles J. Hanley 

 of The Associated Press 

 The NDI, affiliated with … 2011 funding previously planned. 

 Solyndra takes out the link 

 Restuccia, 9/25 

 (Energy &#38; Environment Columnist-The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/677-e2-wire/183755-for-house-gop-solyndra-saga-is-here-to-stay) 

House 

Republicans have 

…

 new version of the bill Friday. 

 Jobs bill first – drains capital 

 Economic Times, 9/25 

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-09-25/news/30200882_1_jobs-bill-david-plouffe-president-barack-obama 

US President Barack 

Obama

&#39;s …

 high unemployment rate. 

 No Child Left Behind 

Graham

, writer for the Richmond Far West Examiner, 

9/24

/2011 

 [Karen, http://www.examiner.com/far-west-end-in-richmond/waiver-of-nclb-mandate-will-impact-henrico-schools] 

On Friday

, September 23, 2011 … 

our students

 rather than helping them. 

 China bashing 

 Raju, 9/28 

 Columnist-Politico, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64571.html 

When

 Senate Majority Leader Harry 

…

 against this, at least so far.” 

 Presidential leadership’s irrelevant 

Jacobs and King 10

, University of Minnesota, Nuffield College, (Lawrence and Desmond, “Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency,” Perspectives on Politics (2010), 8: 793-802) 

 But 

personality is … sales pitches go only so far

. 

2ac – orientalism

 The role of the ballot is to simulate enactment of the plan. That’s the most productive way to engage Mid East politics 

Heydemann

, director – Program on Philanthropy and Nonprofit Sector @ Social Science Research Council, frmr Prof Poli Sci – Columbia, 

‘2 

 (Steve, “Defending the Discipline,” Journal of Democracy Vol. 13, No. 3, Muse) 

 Though Kramer&#39;s book …

 in the Mid

dle 

East

 during the course of the 1990s. 

 Method focus causes endless paradigm wars 

Wendt

, professor of international security – Ohio State University, 

‘98 

 (Alexander, “On Constitution and Causation in International Relations,” British International Studies Association) 

 As a community, we in …

caricatures

 of science. 

 Threat construction isn’t sufficient to cause wars 

Kaufman

, Prof Poli Sci and IR – U Delaware, 

‘9 

 (Stuart J, “Narratives and Symbols in Violent Mobilization: The Palestinian-Israeli Case,” Security Studies 18:3, 400 – 434) 

Even when hostile narratives

…, and a security dilemma. 

 Their orientalism links are essentialist and prove it’s inevitable – we reverse the tragedy of past imperialism 

 Ahadi and Masazi 7/26/11 

 Mina Ahadi (short biography in German) was born in Iran in 1956. She started her political activities by setting up discussion clubs and performances when she was only 14. She was actively involved as a university student in the 1979 Iranian revolution. When the Islamic government gained power and Khomeini issued a fatwa for compulsory Islamic veiling, she organised meetings and demonstrations against the government. Mina is the founder and coordinator of the International Committees against Execution and Stoning. Mina Ahadi has lived in Europe since 1990. Recently she has founded the Central Council of Ex-Muslims to expose Islamic laws and its affects on people. She is currently under police protection for her ctivities. 

 In reality, however, ‘doctrine’ alone …Middle East and North Africa. 

 Rejecting orientalism collapses Mideast engagement 

Valbjørn 4

• • [Morten, PhD Poli. Sci. @ Aarhus, “Culture Blind and Culture Blinded: Images of Middle Eastern Conflicts in International Relations,” in Middle East and Palestine: Global Politics and Regional Conflict, p. 67-8] 

As mentioned before, … at offering attractive answers. 

 Neorealism is desirable in this context 

 Adnan 7 

 Dr. Sama Adnan is executive director of NewPolicy.org and New Policy PAC, an American lobby for Middle East peace. 

 Changing the map of the …

 prominence

 in the region. 

2ac – FTA cp

 Civil society key to growth – corruption means they don’t solve 

 Brookings Institution June 11 

 Ehaab Abdou Co-founder, Nahdet El Mahrousa &#38; the Federation of Egyptian Youth NGOs Noha Hussein Director, Education Programs, Save the Children, Washington DC Mona Atia Assistant Professor, Geography and International Affairs, George Washington University Homi Kharas Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development, Brookings Institution Amira Maaty Program Officer, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), National Endowment for Democracy 

 But there is already a …

 across all sectors of society. 

 Growth from liberalization isn’t sustainable 

 Eric 

Stoner 11

, adjunct professor at St. Peter&#39;s College, June 2, 

The results of

 these 

economic 

… 

revolutions

 of much of their meaning. 

 Doesn’t solve democratization 

 Gerasimos 

Tsourapas 11

, Researcher at the Hellenic Centre for European Studies, “Deconstructing Democracy Promotion Strategies: Economic Liberalization &#38; Reform in Egypt”, April 1, 

Economic liberalization

 in the Middle East …

 scholars with an interest in the Middle East. 

 No solve signal 

 Jeremy M. 

Sharp 11

, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs at the CRS, “Egypt in Transition”, August 23, 

 Experts believe that 

… from Mubarak-era corruption

. 

 US stance on reform makes or breaks Al-Qaeda 

 Zarate and Gordon summer 11 

 Juan C. Zarate is a Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism (2005— 2009). He can be reached at jzarate@csis.org. David A. Gordon is the Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project. He can be reached at dgordon@csis.org. Both are working on a year-long CSIS study on the future of al-Qaeda and its associated movements 

 Copyright # 2011 Center for Strategic and International Studies 

 The Washington Quarterly • 34:3 pp. 103122 

 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2011.588305 

If inadequate reform leads to 

…

to support the organic movements in the region. 

 Nuclear terror inevitable now 

Us Russia Joint 

Threat Assessment May 11 

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Joint-Threat-Assessment%20ENG%2027%20May%202011.pdf 

 ABOUT THE U.S.-RUSSIA JOINT THREAT ASSESSMENT ON NUCLEAR TERRORISM The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism is a collaborative project of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the U.S.A. and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences led by Rolf Mowatt-Larssen and Pavel Zolotarev. Authors: • Matthew Bunn. Associate Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School and Co-Principal Investigator of Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. • Colonel Yuri Morozov (retired Russian Armed Forces). Professor of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences and senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, chief of department at the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, 1995–2000. • Rolf Mowatt-Larssen. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence at the U.S. Department of Energy, 2005–2008. • Simon Saradzhyan. Fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Moscow-based defense and security expert and writer, 1993–2008. • William Tobey. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and director of the U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism, deputy administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, 2006–2009. • Colonel General Viktor I. Yesin (retired Russian Armed Forces). Senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and advisor to commander of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, chief of staff of the Strategic Missile Forces, 1994–1996. • Major General Pavel S. Zolotarev (retired Russian Armed Forces). Deputy director of the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and head of the Information and Analysis Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense, 1993–1997, deputy chief of staff of the Defense Council of Russia, 1997–1998. Contributor: • Vladimir Lukov, director general of autonomous non-profit organization “Counter-Terrorism Center.” 

The expert community …

 act of nuclear terrorism occurs

. 

 Extinction 

Ayson 10

, Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (“After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict &#38; Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld) 

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state …probably still meet with a devastating response.

A2 kiss of death

 No impact to US stigma 

 Haas, 9/8 

 (9/8, Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the American Foreign Policy Council, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/09/08/v-print/123482/the-stakes-are-far-too-high-for.html) 

America cannot ….

Washington for its efforts

. 

2ac – israel

 Successful transition IMPROVES Israel ties 

 Diehl 2/14/11 

 Jackson Diehl ….

anti-Semitic propaganda

. 

 Regional credibility is the only relevant internal link to Israel relations 

 Malka, 11 

 Haim Malka, deputy director and senior fellow in the Middle East Program at CSIS, June 2011, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of U.S. Power,” http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf 

Despite

 the …

 own military power

. 

 Relations unbreakable 

 Michael 

Oren 11

, Israel’s ambassador to the US, “The Ultimate Ally”, June, 

Israel is the only Middle 

…, 

America&#39;s ultimate ally

. 

2ac – T

 Counter-interpretation – civil society is T 

Huber 8

 [Daniela, IR prof at Hebrew University, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62, March, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, p. 45-6, http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/69109__790479070.pdf] 

What is 

Democracy 

…, responsive, and accountable. (USAID, 2005: 4) 

 Precision – civil society is one of four topical funding categories 

Trister 11

 (Sarah, Congressional liaison for Freedom House, an NGO dedicated to international research on democracy and human rights, “Investing in Freedom: Analyzing the FY 2012 International Affairs Budget Request,” May, ) 

Funds that fall under the…. civil society

. 

 Education – we’re the biggest Egypt aff 

 Campbell 10 

 Leslie Campbell is senior associate and regional director for the Middle East and north Africa at the National Democratic Institute in the United States. 

http://www.ndi.org/files/Party_Building_MENA_Campbell.pdf 

Democracy assistance …

politics in the long term. 

2ac – EU

 EU has no experience 

 Pertuslot 5/27/11 

 Vivien Pertusot is completing a Master&#39;s degree in Mediterranean Studies at King&#39;s College in London. His thesis focuses on US public diplomacy efforts in Arab regional TV media. He received his undergraduate diploma in History and Political Science from the University of Lille 3 in France. He also studied at Southwestern University in Texas as an exchange student where he became acquainted with public diplomacy through Joseph Nye&#39;s work. 

 The European Union’s … both as an aid donor and trade partner. 

 Obama key to signal 

 Lina 

Khatib 11

, Program Manager at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford University, “The Arab Spring Casts Obama as United States Public Diplomacy Messenger”, August 25, http://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/index.php/newswire/cpdblog_detail/the_arab_spring_casts_obama_as_united_states_public_diplomacy_messenger/ 

Why is it that Obama … 

deaf ears

 in the Arab world. 

2ac – terrorism

 US stance on reform makes or breaks Al-Qaeda 

 Zarate and Gordon summer 11 

 Juan C. Zarate is a Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism (2005— 2009). He can be reached at jzarate@csis.org. David A. Gordon is the Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project. He can be reached at dgordon@csis.org. Both are working on a year-long CSIS study on the future of al-Qaeda and its associated movements 

 Copyright # 2011 Center for Strategic and International Studies 

 The Washington Quarterly • 34:3 pp. 103122 

 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2011.588305 

If inadequate reform 

…..

 influence 

to support the organic movements in the region. 

 Nuclear terror inevitable now 

Us Russia Joint 

Threat Assessment May 11 

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Joint-Threat-Assessment%20ENG%2027%20May%202011.pdf 

 ABOUT THE U.S.-RUSSIA JOINT THREAT ASSESSMENT ON NUCLEAR TERRORISM The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism is a collaborative project of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the U.S.A. and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences led by Rolf Mowatt-Larssen and Pavel Zolotarev. Authors: • Matthew Bunn. Associate Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School and Co-Principal Investigator of Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. • Colonel Yuri Morozov (retired Russian Armed Forces). Professor of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences and senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, chief of department at the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, 1995–2000. • Rolf Mowatt-Larssen. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence at the U.S. Department of Energy, 2005–2008. • Simon Saradzhyan. Fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Moscow-based defense and security expert and writer, 1993–2008. • William Tobey. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and director of the U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism, deputy administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, 2006–2009. • Colonel General Viktor I. Yesin (retired Russian Armed Forces). Senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and advisor to commander of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, chief of staff of the Strategic Missile Forces, 1994–1996. • Major General Pavel S. Zolotarev (retired Russian Armed Forces). Deputy director of the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and head of the Information and Analysis Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense, 1993–1997, deputy chief of staff of the Defense Council of Russia, 1997–1998. Contributor: • Vladimir Lukov, director general of autonomous non-profit organization “Counter-Terrorism Center.” 

The expert ….

 terrorism occurs

. 

 Extinction 

Ayson 10

, Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (“After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict &#38; Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld) 

But these two nuclear …. probably still meet with a devastating response. = 2ac – pressure cp = 

 They’ll say no – the US has no leverage 

 David 

Schenker 9-15

, Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, “Washington&#39;s Limited Influence in Egypt”, 

 News from Egypt is … advised to prioritize judiciously. 

 No solvency and their cards are about requests, not threats 

 Tom 

Curry 11

, national affairs writer for MSNBC, “New challenges for U.S.-Egyptian military ties”, February 11, 

 For 30 years, the …

their national requirements

.” 

Collapses heg and causes Mideast war 

 Wood, 11 

(Chief Military Correspondent-Politics Daily, 2/5, http://www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/) 

Also suddenly 

at risk

, ….s mean fewer daily sorties. 

 Links to politics 

LA Times 11

, U.S. lawmakers now back Egypt aid, 2-9 ) 

Influential 

U.S. ..

 government relations for the group. 

A2 climate aid tradeoff

 6 degree warming inevitable 

AP 9

 (Associated Press, Six Degree Temperature Rise by 2100 is Inevitable: UNEP, September 24, ) 

Earth&#39;s temperature 

…

a foot every 20

 to 25 

years

. 

 The aff doesn’t spend new money 

Hanley 5/13/11 

By Charles J. Hanley 

 of The Associated Press 

 The NDI, affiliated … funding previously planned. 

 Egypt aid up 

McInerney

, Executive Director – Project on Middle East Democracy, 

‘11 

 (Stephen, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012, DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST,” POMED, July) 

 Across various departments … not yet been obligated. 

 Obama is signaling commitment – that’s perceived 

McInerney

, Executive Director – Project on Middle East Democracy, 

‘11 

 (Stephen, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012, DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST,” POMED, July) 

 In the wake of the … to this year’s remarkable developments. 

 Doesn’t solve-past cuts and won’t spur action 

 Washington Post, 11 

 (5/19, http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/climate-change-aid-to-developing-world-difficult-to-track-report-says/2011/05/19/AFbTdp7G_story.html) 

 In the 2009 Copenhagen …associate at WRI. 

2ac – korus

 Zero risk of Korean conflict 

 Ashley 

Rowland

, 12/3/20

10

. Stars and Stripes. “Despite threats, war not likely in Korea, experts say,” http://www.stripes.com/news/despite-threats-war-not-likely-in-korea-experts-say-1.127344?localLinksEnabled=false. 

Despite

 increasingly 

belligerent threats

 …

 fight 

would be the elites

. 

 Not key to alliance 

Cooper

, Specialist, International Trade and Finance – CRS, 3/1/

’11 

 (William H, “The Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Provisions and Implications,” ) 

 Many observers … Korean relations. 

 Uniqueness outweighs the link 

 Devaney, 9-22 

 Tim Devaney, staff writer, 9-22-2011, “Senate passes worker aid bill tied to delayed trade deals,” Washington Times, 

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/sep/22/senate-passes-worker-aid-bill-tied-to-delayed-trad/?page=all#pagebreak 

 Most recently, 

the … the greater good. 

 Plan is a drop in the bucket – Congress increased aid to Egypt this year 

 The aff doesn’t spend new money 

Hanley 5/13/11 

By Charles J. Hanley 

 of The Associated Press 

 The NDI, affiliated … funding previously planned. 

 Solyndra takes out the link 

 Restuccia, 9/25 

 (Energy &#38; Environment Columnist-The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/677-e2-wire/183755-for-house-gop-solyndra-saga-is-here-to-stay) 

House 

Republicans have 

…

 of the bill Friday. 

 Jobs bill first – drains capital 

 Economic Times, 9/25 

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-09-25/news/30200882_1_jobs-bill-david-plouffe-president-barack-obama 

US President … unemployment rate. 

 No Child Left Behind 

Graham

, writer for the Richmond Far West Examiner, 

9/24

/2011 

 [Karen, http://www.examiner.com/far-west-end-in-richmond/waiver-of-nclb-mandate-will-impact-henrico-schools] 

On Friday

, September … has ended up 

hurt

ing 

our students

 rather than helping them. 

 China bashing 

 Raju, 9/28 

 Columnist-Politico, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64571.html 

When

 Senate …. heard the administration speaking out much against this, at least so far.” 

 Presidential leadership’s irrelevant 

Jacobs and King 10

, University of Minnesota, Nuffield College, (Lawrence and Desmond, “Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency,” Perspectives on Politics (2010), 8: 793-802) 

 But 

personality is not a

 solid foundation for a 

persuasive explanation of

 presidential impact and 

the shortfalls or …. pitches go only so far

. 

 ROK won’t ratify – insufficient political capital 

 Inside U.S. Trade, 9-23 

 SEOUL TAKES STEP TOWARD FTA PASSAGE, BUT PATH FORWARD THIS FALL UNCLEAR 

 SECTION: Vol. 29 No. 37 

 This week, the U.S. …. should have, Jaung argued. 

 KORUS causes rising expectations – kills alliance and causes Korean adventurism 

Lee and Kim 10

, Phd, assistant professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Korea University (Dong and Sung, “ Ties That Bind? Assessing the Impact of Economic Interdependence on East Asian Alliances,” East Asia Institute, Security Initiative, Working Paper No. 3, ) 

 In the long run, …

security alliance. 

 Causes war 

Raska

, PhD candidate – Public Policy @ National University of Singapore, 11/26/

’10 

 (Michael, “Why Can’t South Korea Retaliate?” ) 

 However, this …

broader regional crisis. 

 KORUS boosts North Korean manufacturing – key to nuclear modernization 

GTW

, Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch, 

‘11 

 () 

North Korea is

 only 

…

 the trade deal. 

 That causes a nuclear strike – extinction 

 Choi, 99 

 (Exec. Dir-Center for Korean American Peace, http://www.nautilus.org/publications/essays/napsnet/forum/security/9907G_Kim.html) 

 No shotgun …. Americans or the Japanese. 

 KORUS is perceived as containing China 

Kim

, Research Fellow – Sejong Institute, PhD IR – UT Austin, May 

‘11 

 (Chi-Wook, “South Korea’s Business Sectors and Transformation of ROKUS Alliance: A Case Study of KORUS FTA,” ) 

 Finally, the caveat is that a more consolidated ROKUS alliance promoted by the 

KORUS

 FTA 

might make China

 and North …

 into the global stage. 

 Causes war 

Glaser

, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs – George Washington University, 

‘11 

 (Charles, “Will China’s Rise Lead to War?” Foreign Affairs Vol. 9 Iss. 2, March/April) 

 REALIST ANALYSES of …. growing power and military capabilities. 

 Nuclear war 

Glaser

, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs – George Washington University, 

‘11 

 (Charles, “Will China’s Rise Lead to War?” Foreign Affairs Vol. 9 Iss. 2, March/April) 

 THE PROSPECTS for avoiding … of U.S.-Chinese relations. 

 PLAN: The United States Federal Government should substantially increase civil society support to Egyptian unregisted non governmental organizations. 

 1ac – mechanics 

 Democracy assistance to Egypt WAS direct aid to NGOs 

 Abdel-Baky 8/18/11 

 al-ahram staff 

 &#34;USAID has contributed … for International Cooperation. 

 The US WAFFLED – assistance is channeled through the government 

 De Los Reyes 8/16/11 

 As a senior staff writer, Che focuses on international development breaking news coverage as well as interviews and features. Prior to joining Devex, Che handled communications for local and international development NGOs and government institutions in the Philippines. 

 After months of … distribution of funds. 

 1ac – transition 

 Advantage one is the transition 

 Collapse of SCAF control is inevitable – the Muslim Brotherhood will takeover 

 Cook 8/29/11 

 STEVEN A. COOK is Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author of The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square, to be published this fall. Foreign Affairs. 

 In the weeks and … even bother trying. 

 Muslim brotherhood will spark a war with Israel – goes nuclear 

 Meir-Levi 9/7/11 

http://frontpagemag.com/2011/09/07/nine-fronts-in-the-next-war/2/ 

 David Meir-Levi is an American-born Israeli currently living in Palo Alto. He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University, and an MA in Near Eastern Studies from Brandeis University. He taught Archaeology and Near Eastern History at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem and at the University of Tel Aviv during the 60&#39;s and 70&#39;s. Upon returning to the USA, Mr. Meir-Levi has worked as a professional Jewish educator, most recently in the San Francisco Bay Area. Since the outbreak of the second Intifada (9/28/00), he has lectured throughout northern California at synagogues, churches, universities, and service organizations on topics related to the history of the Arab-Israel conflict and the roots of terrorism in the Arab world. He has most recently taught a series of courses at San Jose State University, UC Davis, Cal-Poly Institute, and at the Monterey Institute for International Studies, on the history of the Israel-Arab conflict. 

 Igniting a new war … war of survival. 

 Extinction 

 Louis René Beres 8-17, prof of poli sci and international law at Purdue, “Israel, anarchy and global chaos”, 

 In history, there … would be chaotic. 

 The brotherhood hasn’t “moderated” 

 Radosh, 11 

 Ronald Radosh, adjunct fellow at the Hudson Institute; Prof. Emeritus of History at the City University of New York, 2/16/11, The Real Face of the Muslim Brotherhood ,http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&#38;id=7727 

 At present, the … democratic Egypt. 

 Brotherhood influence is inevitable – the plan creates a counterweight to prevent a political monopoly 

 Trager, September/October 11 

 Eric Trager, the Ira Weiner Fellow at The Washington Institute, is a Ph.D. candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, where his research focuses on Egyptian opposition parties. He was in Egypt during the 2011 anti-Mubarak revolts, and his writings have appeared in Foreign Affairs, the Atlantic, and the New Republic, among many other publications. From 2006-2007, Mr. Trager lived in Egypt as an Islamic Civilizations Fulbright fellow, where he studied at the American University in Cairo and received his M.A. in Arabic studies with a concentration in Islamic studies. He served as a research assistant at The Washington Institute from 2005 to 2006 upon graduation from Harvard University with a degree in government and language citations in Arabic and Hebrew. 

 Washington should view … fought so valiantly. 

 That’s a key check on radical Islamism, regardless of election outcomes 

 Kevin Russell 8-22, PhD student in Political Science at Yale University. He previously worked in the Office of the Secretary of Defense primarily in the Middle East office for the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy. From 2008 to 2009 he was detailed to the State Dept as a governance advisor to a US Army Brigade in Taji, Iraq. Russell graduated with an MA from Johns Hopkins SAIS in 2004 and a BA in astrophysics and philosophy from Williams College in 2000, “The fight over democratic norms in Egypt”, 

 However, the Tahrir … every traffic light. 

 Liberals and the SCAF are trapped in a loop of protest and repression 

 Hamid and Plumbly 7/14/11 

 Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center 

 Samuel Plumbly, Research Assistant, Brookings Doha Center 

 For nearly two … the ballot box. 

 The SCAF will appease protestors by moving troops into the Sinai – collapses the Peace Treaty 

 Mudar Zahran 9-9, researcher and phd candidate at the University of Bedfordshire, Palestinian writer and academic from Jordan, who now resides in the UK as a political refugee, “Egypt&#39;s Military Council Toying with Israel”, 

 While the Egyptian … for this cause. 

 Sinai instability goes nuclear 

 Zitun 9/5/11 

 staff writer, quoting Senior IDF officer 

 IDF general: Likelihood … by censorship officials. 

 A strong Peace Treaty solves nuclear war – US involvement is key 

 Satloff, 11 

 Robert Satloff, executive director of The Washington Institute9/26/11, “Hanging by a Thread,” http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/opedsPDFs/4e68e438f05fd.pdf 

 IT’S THE GRANDDADDY … not to try. 

 US direct grants to independent NGOs solve Egyptian confidence in the transition 

 Schenker 7/25/11 

 David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, from where this monograph, of which this is part 6, is adapted. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; in that capacity he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. 

 As Egypt approaches … a democratic system. 

 BUILDING CONFIDENCE among LIBERAL GROUPS solves STREET PROTEST 

 Paciello 11 

 Maria Cristina Paciello is researcher for Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Rome and lecturer in 

 Economic and Political Geography of Development at La Sapienza University of Rome. The author is 

 indebted to Dr Rym Ayadi, Prof. Abdul-Monem Al Mashat, Prof. Alia El-Mehdi and Dr Nathalie Tocci 

 for their insightful comments. 

 Egypt: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition 

 Maria Cristina Paciello 

 MEDPRO Technical Report No. 4/May 2011 

 While the direction … democracy moves forward. 

 Anti-Americanism now – we solve 

 Thiessen, 11 

 (Visiting Fellow-AEI, 2/15, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/14/AR2011021403059.html) 

 The extraordinary scenes … to win them back. 

 1ac – regional cred 

 Advantage two is Iran 

 The plan reinvigorates U.S. regional credibility – our stance on Egypt is key 

 Hamid 4/26/11 

 Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center 

 The revolutions are … may still fail. 

 Support for democratic processes is crucial 

 Amjad Atallah and, Co-Director of the Middle East Task Force at the New America Foundation, Daniel Levy 11, Senior Research Fellow and Co-Director of the Middle East Task Force at the New America Foundation. He is also a Senior Fellow at The Century Foundation. He serves as a co-editor of The Middle East Channel, an online initiative of Foreign Policy Magazine, “America, Welcome to the Era of Arab Democracy”, February 10, 

 Across the Middle … from the latter. 

 Nothing else matters 

 Michele Kelemen 11, covers the State Department for NPR, “U.S. Could Use Egypt To Boost Credibility, Some Say”, February 11, 

 Miller says this … are real reforms. 

 The US must transition to an ideational model of Mid East engagement or risk total irrelevance – Egypt is the key 

 Peter Fettner 11, prof and PhD candidate in philosophy at Temple, published writer and researcher on US foreign policy, (writing under the pseudonym Byron), “Investigative Analysis: Soft Power in the Middle East – Reforming American Foreign Policy”, August 26, 

 It’s easy to … United States to respond. 

 Perception of US weakness emboldens Iran and causes other countries to bandwagon 

 Jon Alterman 11, director and senior fellow of the Middle East Program at CSIS, Former member of the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State and as a special assistant to the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, June 2011, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of U.S. Power,” http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf 

 Whatever the actual … actions and statements. 

 Credibility garnered from transitions solves Iran expansionism 

 Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, 

 America’s interest in … commitment in practice. 

 Causes regional war and miscalc 

 Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, 

 As it struggles … and game-changing war. 

 Goes nuclear 

 James A. Russell, Senior Lecturer, National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, ‘9 (Spring) “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” IFRI, Proliferation Papers, #26, http://www.ifri.org/downloads/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf 

 Strategic stability in … the entire world. 

 Their defense is out-dated and overly optimistic 

 Herbert I. London 10, President Emeritus of Hudson Institute, “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East”, June 23, 

 The gathering storm … truly bad sign. 

2AC 

 2ac heg 

 Weak credibility eviscerates US power projection 

 Cohen, 11 

 Craig Cohen, vice president for Research and Programs at CSIS and editor of this volume, serves as principal adviser to CSIS president, June 2011, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of U.S. Power,” http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf 

 This study finds that citizens of countries of 

AND 

could

 still 

shape order for decades

 to come. 

 Nuclear war 

 Barnett, Professor, Warfare Analysis and Research Dept – U.S. Naval War College, 3/7/’11 

 (Thomas, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” ) 

 Events in Libya are a further reminder for 

AND 

in

 battle 

deaths

 from state-based conflicts. 

 kiss of death 

 We solve anti-Americanism – liberals hate the US cause we cut funding – that’s theissen 

 No impact to US stigma 

 Haas, 9/8 

 (9/8, Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the American Foreign Policy Council, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/09/08/v-print/123482/the-stakes-are-far-too-high-for.html) 

 America cannot dictate the future of this economically 

AND 

help and later thanked Washington for its efforts

. 

 orientalism 

 The role of the ballot is to simulate enactment of the plan 

 Heydemann, director – Program on Philanthropy and Nonprofit Sector @ Social Science Research Council, frmr Prof Poli Sci – Columbia, ‘2 

 (Steve, “Defending the Discipline,” Journal of Democracy Vol. 13, No. 3, Muse) 

 Though Kramer&#39;s book is severely flawed, 2 

AND 

Mid

dle 

East

 during the course of the 1990s. 

 Method focus causes endless paradigm wars 

 Wendt, professor of international security – Ohio State University, ‘98 

 (Alexander, “On Constitution and Causation in International Relations,” British International Studies Association) 

 As a community, we in the academic 

 AND 

 one-sided, intolerant caricatures of science. 

 Case outweighs – orientalist representations pervade policy discourse and academia – no genocide 

 Our stability impacts aren’t constructed – the possibility of miscalc is already built into institutions like nuclear alert systems so they can’t turn the case 

 No impact – threat construction isn’t sufficient to cause wars 

 Kaufman, Prof Poli Sci and IR – U Delaware, ‘9 

 (Stuart J, “Narratives and Symbols in Violent Mobilization: The Palestinian-Israeli Case,” Security Studies 18:3, 400 – 434) 

Even when hostile narratives

, group fears, 

 AND 

 , chauvinist mobilization, and a security dilemma. 

 Perm do both 

 Perm do the plan and adopt a revolutionary pedagogy – rejection’s not key 

 Their orientalism links are essentialist and prove it’s inevitable – we reverse the tragedy of past imperialism 

 Ahadi and Masazi 7/26/11 

 Mina Ahadi (short biography in German) was born in Iran in 1956. She started her political activities by setting up discussion clubs and performances when she was only 14. She was actively involved as a university student in the 1979 Iranian revolution. When the Islamic government gained power and Khomeini issued a fatwa for compulsory Islamic veiling, she organised meetings and demonstrations against the government. Mina is the founder and coordinator of the International Committees against Execution and Stoning. Mina Ahadi has lived in Europe since 1990. Recently she has founded the Central Council of Ex-Muslims to expose Islamic laws and its affects on people. She is currently under police protection for her ctivities. 

 In reality, however, ‘doctrine’ 

 AND 

 modern and human Middle East and North Africa. 

 The alt fails and destroys minority rights – sectarian violence causes re-securitization 

 Roe, Assistant Professor, International Relations and European Studies – Central European University, ‘4 

 (Paul, “Securitization and Minority Rights: Conditions of Desecuritization,” Security Dialogue, Vol. 35, No. 3, September) 

 Aradau’s (valuable) contentions aside, what 

AND 

for emergency politics on both sides is reduced

. 

 The aff transitions to an ideational model of MidEast engagement – that’s fettner 

 Neorealism is desirable in this context 

 Adnan 7 

 Dr. Sama Adnan is executive director of NewPolicy.org and New Policy PAC, an American lobby for Middle East peace. 

 Changing the map of the Middle East through 

 AND 

 avenues to 

maintain its prominence

 in the region. 

 Broad indicts of epistemology don’t take out our impacts – you should weigh specific evidence to get closer to the truth 

 Kratochwil, professor of international relations – European University Institute, ‘8 

 (Friedrich, “The Puzzles of Politics,” pg. 200-213) 

 In what follows, I claim that the shift in focus from “demonstration” to science as practice provides strong prima facie reasons to choose pragmatic rather than traditional epistemological criteria in social analysis. 

 Irrespective of its various forms, the epistemological 

 AND 

 new and improved” versions of familiar products. 

 Rejecting orientalism collapses Mideast engagement 

 Valbjørn 4 [Morten, PhD Poli. Sci. @ Aarhus, “Culture Blind and Culture Blinded: Images of Middle Eastern Conflicts in International Relations,” in Middle East and Palestine: Global Politics and Regional Conflict, p. 67-8] 

 As mentioned before, the relational perspective is 

 AND 

 and critical questions than at offering attractive answers. 

 We control uniqueness – violence declining because of Western civilization and growth 

 Pinker, Prof Psychology – Harvard, 3/19/‘7 

 (Steven, “A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE,” The New Republic) 

 In the decade of Darfur and Iraq, 

 AND 

 , military 

coups, and

 deadly 

ethnic riots

. 

 eu 

 Obviously doesn’t solve anti-Americanism 

 Perm do both 

 Doesn’t solve NGO’s – US has unique expertise in capacity building – that’s schenker 

 EU has no experience 

 Pertuslot 5/27/11 

 Vivien Pertusot is completing a Master&#39;s degree in Mediterranean Studies at King&#39;s College in London. His thesis focuses on US public diplomacy efforts in Arab regional TV media. He received his undergraduate diploma in History and Political Science from the University of Lille 3 in France. He also studied at Southwestern University in Texas as an exchange student where he became acquainted with public diplomacy through Joseph Nye&#39;s work. 

 The European Union’s (

EU) response 

 AND 

 both as an aid donor and trade partner. 

 International fiat – reject the team 

 Logic – no single actor can decide between agents 

 Shifts the topic – we only discuss US key advs – stale and unfair for the aff 

 Pressure and threaten solve 

 Doesn’t solve US leverage with the SCAF – the perm is key 

 Ash 5/18/11 

 Timothy Garton Ash is a historian, political writer and Guardian columnist 

 From what I can gather, the 

 AND 

 of transatlantic partnership since the second world war. 

 New funding pisses off major contributors 

 Dow Jones 9/12/11 

 Eight of 

the European Union&#39;s largest

 net 

contributors 

 AND 

 budget to be frozen when allowing for inflation. 

 Finance splits cracks the EU and causes new European war: crucial window 

 Associated Press 9/17/11 

http://www.taiwannews.com.tw/etn/news_content.php?id=1710609 

 The latest backdrop for European financial crisis 

 AND 

 issues may be backed by all euro countries. 

 eu warming net benefit 

 They don’t have a card saying cooperation on the plan is key to warming 

 Proves the perm is sufficient – farko says the EU should move away from US positions, not that we can’t coop 

 EU can’t solve – no agreement 

 Manning 8/23 (Paddy, Sydney Morning Herald, 8/23/2011, “Outlook gloomy on global warming: Deutsche”, http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/outlook-gloomy-on-global-warming-deutsche-20110823-1j82k.html) 

 Deutsche Bank&#39;s head of carbon emissions research Mark 

AND 

pledged

 emissions 

reduction

 ranges,&#34; Mr Jordan said. 

 6 degree warming inevitable 

 AP 9 (Associated Press, Six Degree Temperature Rise by 2100 is Inevitable: UNEP, September 24, ) 

Earth&#39;s temperature is likely to jump six degrees 

 AND 

 about a foot every 20 to 25 years. 

 china bashing 

 No China war – cooperation 

 Friedberg 5, Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs and Director of Policy Planning in the Office of the Vice President, International Security, Vol. 30, No. 2 (Fall 2005), pp. 7–45 

 Fortunately, 

a number of the factors

 to 

 AND 

 profound and far-reaching domestic political reforms. 

 They won’t retaliate 

 The Guardian, 3/8/’9 

 (“Trade: nightmare of a US-China protectionist war,” ) 

 But as its biggest creditor, 

it is 

 AND 

 each side can rely on 

mutually assured destruction. 

 The fight is only in Congress – Obama will stay out 

 The Hill, 9/28/’11 

 () 

 The bill would crack down on what critics 

 AND 

 for a slew of House-passed bills. 

 Too far away – no House vote 

 Palmer, 9-21 

 Doug Palmer, 9-21-2011, “ Analysis - Jobs deficit fuels U.S. Senate action on China yuan,” Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/21/uk-usa-china-currency-idUSTRE78K4SR20110921 

 But 

a House Republican at the centre of 

AND 

in the House

 before the current Congress ends. 

 Plan is a drop in the bucket – Congress increased aid to Egypt this year 

 The aff doesn’t spend new money 

 Hanley 5/13/11 

 By Charles J. Hanley 

 of The Associated Press 

 The NDI, affiliated with the Democratic Party 

 AND 

 That would triple the 2011 funding previously planned. 

 Plan is a win for Obama 

 Lane, editorial board – Washington Post, 2/15/’11 

 (Charles ,” Obama can reap political capital from revolt in Egypt,” The News Tribune) 

If Obama reaches out

 effectively 

to

 the 

democratic 

AND 

in Egypt

 over the rest of his term. 

 Solyndra takes out the link 

 Restuccia, 9/25 

 (Energy &#38; Environment Columnist-The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/677-e2-wire/183755-for-house-gop-solyndra-saga-is-here-to-stay) 

 House 

Republicans have sunk their teeth into the 

 AND 

 for the new version of the bill Friday. 

 Winners win 

 Marshall and Prins 11, Bryan W., poli sci at Miami University, Ohio, Brandon C., poli sci at the University of Tennessee &#38; Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3 (September) 2011 

 Presidents rely heavily on Congress in converting their 

 AND 

 managing 

political capital

 at home (Fordham 2002). 

 Non-unique: No Child Left Behind 

 Graham, writer for the Richmond Far West Examiner, 9/24/2011 

 [Karen, http://www.examiner.com/far-west-end-in-richmond/waiver-of-nclb-mandate-will-impact-henrico-schools] 

On Friday

, September 23, 2011 President 

Obama created a firestorm of debate

, both pro and con, 

when he announced

 that states were being given 

a waiver on

 the 

NCLB

 mandates. 

Calling the

 NCLB 

law

 &#34;admirable, but 

a flawed effort

&#34;, 

he went on to say

 that 

it

 has ended up 

hurt

ing 

our students

 rather than helping them. 

 Presidential leadership’s irrelevant 

 Jacobs and King 10, University of Minnesota, Nuffield College, (Lawrence and Desmond, “Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency,” Perspectives on Politics (2010), 8: 793-802) 

 But 

personality is not a

 solid foundation 

 AND 

 . 

Presidential sales pitches go only so far

. 

 1AR 

 case 

 Public opinion is the crucial battleground 

 Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, 

 The United States can do better than attempting 

 AND 

 major reorientation of its domestic and foreign policies. 

 Public diplomacy is only internal to credibility – inevitable military drawdown 

 Amitai Etzioni 11, professor of international relations at George Washington, “The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility”, March-April, 

The fact that the U

nited 

S

tates 

is drawing 

 AND 

 responsibilities and live up to its commitments 

overseas

. 

 Iran won’t supply terrorists – fear of retaliation and no strategic value 

 Roth, associate director, national security studies – Johns Hopkins, 11/24/’9 

 (Ariel Ilan, “The Root of All Fears,” Foreign Affairs) 

 Nor would Iran readily supply Hezbollah with atomic 

 AND 

 constant worry of regime change imposed from abroad. 

 Nuclear Iran will be deterred and create stable peace – they won’t give weapons to terrorists or attack Israel 

 Sadr, 2005 

 Ehsaneh I. Sadr, Politics @ Maryland, Summer 2005, “The Impact of Iran’s Nuclearization On Israel,” ME Policy, v. 12, iss. 2, pq 

 The above analysis indicates that a nuclearized Iran 

 AND 

 the future integration of Israel into its neighborhood. 

 k 

 Predictions good on balance for Egypt political forecasting 

 Chadwick 7/6/11 

 Bruce P. Chadwick, PhD, CFA, is principal at Chadwick Global Research and Consulting, an independent consulting firm specializing in macro strategy, including quantitative, emerging market, and SRI research. 

http://post.nyssa.org/nyssa-news/2011/07/summer-perspectives-on-the-arab-spring.html 

When Worldview covered Egypt

 in autumn 2009, 

 AND 

 to macro opportunities and more adaptive risk management. 

 Nuke war outweighs structural violence 

Folk

, 19

78

 Professor of Religious and Peace Studies at Bethany College, 78 [Jerry, “Peace Educations – Peace Studies : Towards an Integrated Approach,” Peace &#38; Change, volume V, number 1, Spring, p. 58] 

 Those 

proponents of

 the 

positive peace

 approach 

who 

 AND 

 from the point of view of 

negative peace

. 

 Zero risk of intervention 

 David Mathieson and, Associate Fellow at FRIDE. He holds a doctorate from the University of London, Richard Youngs 6, Co-ordinator of the Democratisation programme at FRIDE, and lecturer at the University of Warwick, “Democracy Promotion and the European Left: Ambivalence Confused?”, December, working paper 29 at FRIDE 

The left needs to get beyond a line 

 AND 

 in its own internal debates during the 1990s.

CYPRUS IMPACT 

 Only MB takeover causes gas shutoff – tanks Israeli econ 

 Ynetnews 11 

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4020922,00.html 

 Ynetnews is Israel&#39;s most comprehensive, authoritative daily source for 24/7 breaking news &#38; current events from Israel and Jewish content online. 

 Egypt now earns … above market value. 

 Egypt cutoff perception = new Israeli gas exploration 

 Clark 6/21/11 

http://www.newsbase.com/newsbasearchive/news/meog.pdf 

 A highly motivated self starting, safety conscious professional manager with extensive multi cultural, international knowledge and experience of: • Quality competence assurance systems for the marine, oil and gas industry; • Marine engineering (VLCCs to 286,000 tons); • Hydrocarbon production operations; • Wireline and well completions, well interventions and work over’s, (as technician, CRO, wireline and well completion supervisor, operations shift supervisor, OIM and onshore management) inc oil &#38; gas production, gas lift, gas compression, gas dehydration, water treatment and re-injection; • On-shore tanker terminal operations inc. receipt of product from offshore installations, de-waxing, de-watering, RVP stabilisation, fiscalisation and tanker loading and offloading operations; and • FPSO operations including inerting, crude oil washing and tandem offloading operations. Summary of qualifications • Various Shell internal competencies including OIM command and control level 3 (the most senior) and PTW system auditor. • Company security officer (Lloyds Register) • Maritime auditor / lead auditor. (Warsash maritime centre) • DTI, 1st class Marine Engineers’ certificate. (Chief engineer/steam/preSTCW95) • Member of the Chartered Management Institute. • TDLB qualified in: D31, 32, 33, 34 and 36 • NVQ level 5 in management • NVQ level 4 in training and development (Human resources) CV MARTIN CLARK M3 Marine Expertise Pte Ltd Page 2 Work Experience 2011 – to date: Consultancy Consultant on a number of projects for both the marine and hydrocarbon industries 

 Egyptian threat The quest … the Noa development. 

 Israel allies with Greek Cypriots, causes war with Turkey 

 Cagaptay 9/8/11 

http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/08/cagaptay-israel-turkey-conflict/ 

 Soner Cagaptay is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and is the co-author, with Scott Carpenter, ofRegenerating the U.S.-Turkey Partnership. 

 The specter of conflict … in the Mediterranean Sea. 

 Escalates into all-out Mideastwar 

 Matt 9/17/11 

http://www.1913intel.com/2011/09/17/israeli-greek-turkish-air-sea-forces-on-guard-for-first-cypriot-gas-drilling/ 

 actuary and risk manager, author of 1913 miltiary intelligence blog 

 Military tension is building … once and for all. 

GAS SHUT-OFF IMPACT 

 Only MB takeover causes gas shutoff – tanks Israeli econ 

 Ynetnews 11 

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4020922,00.html 

 Ynetnews is Israel&#39;s most comprehensive, authoritative daily source for 24/7 breaking news &#38; current events from Israel and Jewish content online. 

 Egypt now earns … above market value. 

 Egypt cutoff perception = new Israeli gas exploration 

 Clark 6/21/11 

http://www.newsbase.com/newsbasearchive/news/meog.pdf 

 A highly motivated self starting, safety conscious professional manager with extensive multi cultural, international knowledge and experience of: • Quality competence assurance systems for the marine, oil and gas industry; • Marine engineering (VLCCs to 286,000 tons); • Hydrocarbon production operations; • Wireline and well completions, well interventions and work over’s, (as technician, CRO, wireline and well completion supervisor, operations shift supervisor, OIM and onshore management) inc oil &#38; gas production, gas lift, gas compression, gas dehydration, water treatment and re-injection; • On-shore tanker terminal operations inc. receipt of product from offshore installations, de-waxing, de-watering, RVP stabilisation, fiscalisation and tanker loading and offloading operations; and • FPSO operations including inerting, crude oil washing and tandem offloading operations. Summary of qualifications • Various Shell internal competencies including OIM command and control level 3 (the most senior) and PTW system auditor. • Company security officer (Lloyds Register) • Maritime auditor / lead auditor. (Warsash maritime centre) • DTI, 1st class Marine Engineers’ certificate. (Chief engineer/steam/preSTCW95) • Member of the Chartered Management Institute. • TDLB qualified in: D31, 32, 33, 34 and 36 • NVQ level 5 in management • NVQ level 4 in training and development (Human resources) CV MARTIN CLARK M3 Marine Expertise Pte Ltd Page 2 Work Experience 2011 – to date: Consultancy Consultant on a number of projects for both the marine and hydrocarbon industries 

 Egyptian threat The quest … the Noa development. 

 Israel allies with Greek Cypriots, causes war with Turkey 

 Cagaptay 9/8/11 

http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/08/cagaptay-israel-turkey-conflict/ 

 Soner Cagaptay is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and is the co-author, with Scott Carpenter, ofRegenerating the U.S.-Turkey Partnership. 

 The specter of ... the Mediterranean Sea. 

 Escalates into all-out Mideastwar 

 Matt 9/17/11 

http://www.1913intel.com/2011/09/17/israeli-greek-turkish-air-sea-forces-on-guard-for-first-cypriot-gas-drilling/ 

 actuary and risk manager, author of 1913 miltiary intelligence blog 

 Military tension is … once and for all. 

 Extinction 

 Stirling 11 

http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2011/02/advanced-biological-warfare.html 

 I hold 3 degrees: B.Sc. in Pol. Sc. &#38; History; M.A. in European Studies; B.Sc. in Education. I have worked on 3 addtional degrees: M.T.S. (theology); LL.B. (English Law); M.S. (Criminal Justice). I am former Scottish Editor at Burke&#39;s Peerage in London. 

 Saddam Hussein&#39;s military … of Advanced Biological Warfare.

HAMAS IMPACT 

 Muslim Brotherhood victory in Egypt causes Hamas lashout in Gaza - draws is Hizbollah and escalates to regional war 

 Friedman 8/22/11 

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110822-israeli-arab-crisis-approaching 

 George Friedman is an American political scientist and author. He is the founder, chief intelligence officer, financial overseer, and CEO of the private intelligence corporation Stratfor. He has authored several books, including The Next 100 Years, The Next Decade, America&#39;s Secret War, The Intelligence Edge, and The Future of War.[1] 

 Egypt is the power … that Israel has. 

 Goes nuclear and chemical 

 Jerusalem Connection 2/15/11 

http://www.thejerusalemconnection.us/blog/2011/02/25/how-close-to-middle-east-war-are-we.html 

 The Jerusalem Connection, International is a 501 (c)-(3) non-profit organization whose mission is: 

 To inform, educate and activate support for Israel and the Jewish people. 

 Both Iran and Syria, worried … have chemical weapons. 

 Extinction 

 Stirling 11 

http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2011/02/advanced-biological-warfare.html 

 I hold 3 degrees: B.Sc. in Pol. Sc. &#38; History; M.A. in European Studies; B.Sc. in Education. I have worked on 3 addtional degrees: M.T.S. (theology); LL.B. (English Law); M.S. (Criminal Justice). I am former Scottish Editor at Burke&#39;s Peerage in London. 

Saddam Hussein&#39;s military … of Advanced Biological Warfare

Egyptian MB spreads to Jordan New York times 1/31/11~\~\ Israelis worry that … and analysts said. Jordan MB forces Israel to annex “West Bank” Vincent 8/1/11 Rob Vincent, a U.S. Army veteran, obtained his BA in Russian and East European Studies from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, and his MA in International Relations from the University of Chicago, specializing in Security Studies; he also has an MBA from the University of Findlay, Ohio.~\~\ These unfolding events … "least bad" option. Extinction Dale 9/21/11 ~\~\political commentator on Israeli relations Now the Israeli … reality at its peril. Draws in Hezbollah – extinction Stirling 11 ~\~\I hold 3 degrees: B.Sc. in Pol. Sc. & History; M.A. in European Studies; B.Sc. in Education. I have worked on 3 addtional degrees: M.T.S. (theology); LL.B. (English Law); M.S. (Criminal Justice). I am former Scottish Editor at Burke's Peerage in London. Saddam Hussein's military … of Advanced Biological Warfare.

= 1ac card = 

 Pushing academic findings onto the government is key to changing Mid East policy 

Lockman

, Chair – Department of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies @ NYU, Spring 

‘5 

 (Zachary, “Critique from the Right: The Neo-conservative Assault on Middle East Studies,” The New Centennial Review 5.1, Muse) 

 Scholars and the State 

 If the preceding assessment 

 kidnapped, or worse. 

case

 No impact – threat construction isn’t sufficient to cause wars 

Kaufman

, Prof Poli Sci and IR – U Delaware, 

‘9 

 (Stuart J, “Narratives and Symbols in Violent Mobilization: The Palestinian-Israeli Case,” Security Studies 18:3, 400 – 434) 

Even when hostile narratives 

 and a security dilemma. 

 The alt fails and destroys minority rights – sectarian violence causes re-securitization 

Roe

, Assistant Professor, International Relations and European Studies – Central European University, 

‘4 

 (Paul, “Securitization and Minority Rights: Conditions of Desecuritization,” Security Dialogue, Vol. 35, No. 3, September) 

 Aradau’s (valuable) contentions 

sides is reduced

. 

 No oversaturation – take a leap of faith – we should actively attempt to build meaning and truth in life even if it’s all simulation – their project will never work without the hope that comes from affirming the possibility of truth, even if it’s not actually true 

 Fawver, 8 

 [Kurt, Master of Arts Engilsh – Cleveland State University, “ DESTRUCTION IN SEARCH OF HOPE: BAUDRILLARD, SIMULATION, AND CHUCK PALAHNIUK’S CHOKE,” August 2008, ] 

If Palahniuk’s Choke was 

escape

 from simulation 

is

, in fact, 

possible

. 

anxiety

 The role of the ballot is to simulate enactment of the plan. That’s the most productive way to engage Mid East politics 

Heydemann

, director – Program on Philanthropy and Nonprofit Sector @ Social Science Research Council, frmr Prof Poli Sci – Columbia, 

‘2 

 (Steve, “Defending the Discipline,” Journal of Democracy Vol. 13, No. 3, Muse) 

 Though Kramer&#39;s book 

 course of the 1990s. 

 Engaging the state in democracy assistance debates is uniquely radical and effective – a focus on method divorced from policy change only wins half the battle 

Guilhot

, research fellow – Social Science Research Council, prof sociology – LSE, 

‘5 

 (Nicolas, The Democracy Makers, p. 185-186) 

 This last point regarding 

 socially 

located 

actors. 

 Psychoanalysis is a closed system of assertion that doesn’t describe reality 

Perpich 5

 (Dian Professor of PHILOSOPHY AT Vanderbilt “Figurative Language and the ‘Face’ in Levinas’s Philosophy” Philosophy and Rhetoric vol. 38:2) 

 Levinas’s hesitations about 

ego in the totality. 

 Anxiety is NOT the root of nuclear violence and the alt has no effect on elites 

 James G. 

Blight

 –Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts – American Psychologist –Volume 42, Issue 1, 

87

• • – obtained via CSA Illumina Database 

What needs to be 

manage the nuclear risks. 

 Perm – do the plan and reject individual fear of death – deciding for others decimates ethical responsibility 

Schulz

, 

2K

,

 professor of philosophy at Tubigen University [Walter, Continental Philosophy Review 33, pp. 483-485] 

It is significant that 

the 

in the face of death

. 

 Swazo’s alternative does not solve and paralyses politics 

 Thiele 4 

Review: A (Political) Philosopher by Any Other Name: The Roots of Heidegger&#39;s ThoughtAuthor(s): Leslie Paul ThieleSource: Political Theory, Vol. 32, No. 4 (Aug., 2004), pp. 570-579Published 

 Professor, university of Florida 

 Leslie Paul Thiele received his Ph.D. from Princeton University in 1989. His research focuses on continental political thought, environmental ethics and politics, and the intersection of political philosophy, psychology, and cultural studies. 

 But 

it is chiefly against 

forces on a global scale

. 

polyarchy

 Zero risk of intervention 

 David 

Mathieson and

, Associate Fellow at FRIDE. He holds a doctorate from the University of London, Richard 

Youngs 6

, Co-ordinator of the Democratisation programme at FRIDE, and lecturer at the University of Warwick, “Democracy Promotion and the European Left: Ambivalence Confused?”, December, working paper 29 at FRIDE 

The left needs 

 during the 1990s. 

 No alternative to heg 

 Freeman 6/12/11 

 Freeman, C. W. (2011), The Arab Reawakening: Strategic Implications. Middle East Policy, 18: 29–36. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-4967.2011.00482.x 

 Charles W. (&#34;Chas&#34 Freeman, Jr. (born 1943) is an American diplomat, author, and writer. He has served for the State and Defense Departments in many different capacities in the past thirty years,[1] with the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs calling his career &#34;remarkably varied&#34;. He most notably worked as the main interpreter for Richard Nixon in his 1972 China visit and as the United States Ambassador to Saudi Arabia from 1989 to 1992, where he dealt with issues related to the Persian Gulf War.[2] He is a past president of the Middle East Policy Council, co-chair of the U.S. China Policy Foundation, and vice-chair of the Atlantic Council.[3] 

 These changes are 

 others in countering it. 

 Their orientalism links are essentialist and prove it’s inevitable – we reverse the tragedy of past imperialism 

 Ahadi and Masazi 7/26/11 

 Mina Ahadi (short biography in German) was born in Iran in 1956. She started her political activities by setting up discussion clubs and performances when she was only 14. She was actively involved as a university student in the 1979 Iranian revolution. When the Islamic government gained power and Khomeini issued a fatwa for compulsory Islamic veiling, she organised meetings and demonstrations against the government. Mina is the founder and coordinator of the International Committees against Execution and Stoning. Mina Ahadi has lived in Europe since 1990. Recently she has founded the Central Council of Ex-Muslims to expose Islamic laws and its affects on people. She is currently under police protection for her ctivities. 

 In reality, however 

 and North Africa. 

 We control uniqueness – violence declining because of Western civilization and growth 

Pinker

, Prof Psychology – Harvard, 3/19/

‘7 

 (Steven, “A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE,” The New Republic) 

 In the decade of Darfur 

deadly 

ethnic riots. 

baudrillard

 Only evaluate what we can test as true – the alternative is mass violence 

Wilson 2K

 (A.N. Critic, cultural historian, The Sokal Hoax: The Sham that Shook Academia, pg 120-121) 

 Intellectuals are important 

swine to perdition

. 

 Their whole theory is made up 

Hughes

, arts and architecture – University of Sydney, writer and critic, 6/1/

’89 

 (Robert, “The Patron Saint of Neo-Pop,” New York Review of Books, ) 

 Typical of these 

 what is scandalous. 

 The alt’s rejection of the acceleration of contemporary society is a nostalgic longing for a mythic past – devolves into scapegoating and authoritarianism 

Smith

, Art History and Theory – University of Sydney, 

‘4 

 (Richard, “The Brain is the Milieu: Speed, Politics and the Cosmopolitan Screen,” ) 

 For Connolly, 

political 

 desire to democratise speed. 

 Reality can exist independent of signifiers 

 Wendt, 1999 

 Alexander Wendt, Professor of International Security at Ohio State University, 1999, “Social theory of international politics,” gbooks 

The effects of holding 

extra-linguistic world

. 

 The neg’s politics fragment the left – destroy coalitions necessary for material change 

Chomsky

, Professor of Linguistics – MIT, 

‘95 

 (Noam, ) 

 A final point 

 in my opinion. 

MB

 They’ll build a nuke 

 Sokolski, 11 

 Henry Sokolski, executive director of The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, 2/8/11, Gimme Fuel, Gimme Fire, 

 Even more dangerously 

 U.S. nuclear cooperation. 

 Nuke war 

 Allison, 6 

 Graham Allison, Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs director, 3/18/2006,&#34;The Nightmare This Time,&#34; http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/1525/nightmare_this_time.html?breadcrumb=%2Fproject%2F58%2Fquarterly_journal%3Fparent_id%3D46 

 In 1962, bilateral 

competition 

regional 

nuclear war

. 

 No impact to US stigma 

 Haas, 9/8 

 (9/8, Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the American Foreign Policy Council, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/09/08/v-print/123482/the-stakes-are-far-too-high-for.html) 

America cannot dictate 

Washington for its efforts

. 

 SCAF stopped backlashing this week – only BUYIN is key 

 Lynch 10/2/11 

 Marc Lynch is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University. 

 Egypt&#39;s Supreme Council 

 end to military trials. 

 No impact to crackdowns 

 Amira 

Maaty 11

, program officer on the MENA team of the NED, “Civil society a force in Egypt’s democratization”, April 29, 

 In the run- up to 

 outside the capital. 

iran

 Saying Israel comes first is shoddy reporting and stalls reform 

 Gray 8/15/11 

 Matthew Gray is a former teacher and freelance writer currently living in Bristol, England. He is currently pursuing his MA in Conflict Resolution in Divided Societies at King’s College, London. He has a PGCE in Religious Studies and Ethics from the University of Bristol and a BA in Philosophy from the University of Maryland, College Park. 

 Yet 

the article proceeds 

 through the Middle East. 

 US credibility against Iran key to Asian security alliances 

 Michael 

Mazza 11

, senior research associate in Asian Studies in the Foreign and Defense Policy Studies department at the American Enterprise Institute, “China-Iran Ties: Assessment and Implications for U.S. Policy”, April 21, 

The success or failure 

 U.S. credibility in the region. 

EU

 EU has no experience 

 Pertuslot 5/27/11 

 Vivien Pertusot is completing a Master&#39;s degree in Mediterranean Studies at King&#39;s College in London. His thesis focuses on US public diplomacy efforts in Arab regional TV media. He received his undergraduate diploma in History and Political Science from the University of Lille 3 in France. He also studied at Southwestern University in Texas as an exchange student where he became acquainted with public diplomacy through Joseph Nye&#39;s work. 

 The European Union’s (

EU) response 

 and trade partner. 

 Doesn’t solve US leverage with the SCAF – the perm is key 

 Ash 5/18/11 

 Timothy Garton Ash is a historian, political writer and Guardian columnist 

 From what I can gather 

 the second world war. 

 US stance on reform makes or breaks Al-Qaeda 

 Zarate and Gordon summer 11 

 Juan C. Zarate is a Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism (2005— 2009). He can be reached at jzarate@csis.org. David A. Gordon is the Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project. He can be reached at dgordon@csis.org. Both are working on a year-long CSIS study on the future of al-Qaeda and its associated movements 

 Copyright # 2011 Center for Strategic and International Studies 

 The Washington Quarterly • 34:3 pp. 103122 

 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2011.588305 

If inadequate reform 

movements in the region

. 

 Nuclear terror inevitable now 

Us Russia Joint 

Threat Assessment May 11 

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Joint-Threat-Assessment%20ENG%2027%20May%202011.pdf 

 ABOUT THE U.S.-RUSSIA JOINT THREAT ASSESSMENT ON NUCLEAR TERRORISM The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism is a collaborative project of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the U.S.A. and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences led by Rolf Mowatt-Larssen and Pavel Zolotarev. Authors: • Matthew Bunn. Associate Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School and Co-Principal Investigator of Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. • Colonel Yuri Morozov (retired Russian Armed Forces). Professor of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences and senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, chief of department at the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, 1995–2000. • Rolf Mowatt-Larssen. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence at the U.S. Department of Energy, 2005–2008. • Simon Saradzhyan. Fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Moscow-based defense and security expert and writer, 1993–2008. • William Tobey. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and director of the U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism, deputy administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, 2006–2009. • Colonel General Viktor I. Yesin (retired Russian Armed Forces). Senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and advisor to commander of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, chief of staff of the Strategic Missile Forces, 1994–1996. • Major General Pavel S. Zolotarev (retired Russian Armed Forces). Deputy director of the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and head of the Information and Analysis Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense, 1993–1997, deputy chief of staff of the Defense Council of Russia, 1997–1998. Contributor: • Vladimir Lukov, director general of autonomous non-profit organization “Counter-Terrorism Center.” 

The expert community 

nuclear terrorism occurs

. 

 Extinction 

Ayson 10

, Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (“After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict &#38; Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld) 

But these two nuclear 

with a devastating response. 

pressure

 They’ll say no – the US has no leverage 

 David 

Schenker 9-15

, Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, “Washington&#39;s Limited Influence in Egypt”, 

 News from Egypt is not 

 to prioritize judiciously. 

 Causes huge backlash – they’ll restrict Suez access 

 Tom 

Curry 11

,

 national affairs writer for MSNBC, “New challenges for U.S.-Egyptian military ties”, February 11, 

 The most dramatic action 

limits of U.S. knowledge

.” 

Collapses heg and causes Mideast war 

 Wood, 11 

(Chief Military Correspondent-Politics Daily, 2/5, http://www.politicsdaily.com/2011/02/05/at-risk-in-egypts-turmoil-u-s-military-access-to-the-middle-e/) 

Also suddenly 

at risk 

fewer daily sorties. 

 Links to politics 

LA Times 11

, U.S. lawmakers now back Egypt aid, 2-9 ) 

Influential 

U.S. 

lawmakers 

 for the group. 

 Communication won’t solve, only the perm does, their author 

 Shanks 6 

 The current Global War 

 more chaos and suffering. 

climate tradeoff

 6 degree warming inevitable 

AP 9

 (Associated Press, Six Degree Temperature Rise by 2100 is Inevitable: UNEP, September 24, ) 

Earth&#39;s temperature is likely 

every 20

 to 25 

years

. 

 The aff doesn’t spend new money 

Hanley 5/13/11 

By Charles J. Hanley 

 of The Associated Press 

 The NDI, affiliated 

 funding previously planned. 

 Egypt aid up 

McInerney

, Executive Director – Project on Middle East Democracy, 

‘11 

 (Stephen, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012, DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST,” POMED, July) 

 Across various departments 

 yet been obligated. 

 current budget cuts force tradeoffs 

 Kaminski, 11 

 Jane Kaminski, US Global Leadership Coalition, 8/22/11, A Comprehensive National Security Strategy , 

 As the debate heats up 

 with other agencies. 

 Super committee triggers the link—1.5 trillion is a bit more than the plan 

 Cornwell, 9/7 

 Susan Cornwell, Reuters, 9/7/11, Obama&#39;s &#34;smart power&#34; plan risks death of 1,000 cuts, 

The deficit-cutting deal 

 partner at Qorvis Communications. 

 Doesn’t solve-past cuts and won’t spur action 

 Washington Post, 11 

 (5/19, http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/climate-change-aid-to-developing-world-difficult-to-track-report-says/2011/05/19/AFbTdp7G_story.html) 

 In the 2009 Copenhagen 

 senior associate at WRI. 

turkey

Eurozone collapse now 

Leo 

McKinstry

, Express, staff writer, 

9/15/

11, IF IT WASN’T FOR THE EU, EUROPE WOULD BE DOING JUST FINE, 

THE eurozone increasingly 

an economic one.

 The aff can’t solve—its intractable 

 Soros, 11 

 George F&#39;n Soros, October 2011, Does the Euro Have a Future?, 

 Unfortunately 

the euro crisis 

 Anschutz Fellowship Applications 

 Europe can’t solve global problems 

 Bacevich, 10 

 Andrew, Bacevich, Boston University IR and History Professor, March/April 2010, Let Europe Be Europe,&#34;http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/22/let_europe_be_europe?page=full, 2/28] 

Europe

, however, 

is another 

out of mischief. 

korus

 Zero risk of Korean conflict 

 Ashley 

Rowland

, 12/3/20

10

. Stars and Stripes. “Despite threats, war not likely in Korea, experts say,” http://www.stripes.com/news/despite-threats-war-not-likely-in-korea-experts-say-1.127344?localLinksEnabled=false. 

Despite

 increasingly 

belligerent 

would be the elites

. 

 Not key to alliance 

Cooper

, Specialist, International Trade and Finance – CRS, 3/1/

’11 

 (William H, “The Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Provisions and Implications,” ) 

 Many observers have 

 South Korean relations. 

 Obama sent the FTA to Congress – certain to pass 

USA Today

10/3

/2011 

 [http://content.usatoday.com/communities/theoval/post/2011/10/obama-sends-trade-deals-to-congress-passage-likely/1] 

 President 

Obama

 finally 

 signed with Colombia. 

 Overcomes every issue 

Godfrey

, Tax News, 

9/30

/’11 

 (Mike, ) 

 The Republican Party 

houses

 of Congress.” 

 Spending fights now – autism 

Washington Post

, 

9/27

/’11 

 () 

 WASHINGTON — Congress is sending 

citing budget concerns. 

 Many fights between now and South Korean FTA – disaster aid, EPA, and China make the link inevitable 

Kasperowicz

, writer for The Hill, 

9/30

/2011 

 [Pete, “A closer look at next week…,” ] 

 The House and Senate 

 Panama and South 

Korea

. 

 Solyndra takes out the link 

 Restuccia, 9/25 

 (Energy &#38; Environment Columnist-The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/677-e2-wire/183755-for-house-gop-solyndra-saga-is-here-to-stay) 

House 

Republicans have sunk 

the bill Friday. 

 Jobs bill first – drains capital 

 Economic Times, 9/25 

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-09-25/news/30200882_1_jobs-bill-david-plouffe-president-barack-obama 

US President Barack 

high unemployment rate. 

 China bashing 

 Raju, 9/28 

 Columnist-Politico, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64571.html 

When

 Senate Majority 

at least so far.” 

 No Child Left Behind 

Graham

, writer for the Richmond Far West Examiner, 

9/24

/2011 

 [Karen, ] 

On Friday

, September 23 

 than helping them. 

 Presidential leadership’s irrelevant 

Jacobs and King 10

, University of Minnesota, Nuffield College, (Lawrence and Desmond, “Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency,” Perspectives on Politics (2010), 8: 793-802) 

 But 

personality is not 

go only so far

. 

 ROK won’t ratify – insufficient political capital 

 Inside U.S. Trade, 9-23 

 SEOUL TAKES STEP TOWARD FTA PASSAGE, BUT PATH FORWARD THIS FALL UNCLEAR 

 SECTION: Vol. 29 No. 37 

 This week, the U.S. Senate 

 have, Jaung argued. 

case

 Saying Israel comes first is shoddy reporting and stalls reform 

 Gray 8/15/11 

 Matthew Gray is a former teacher and freelance writer currently living in Bristol, England. He is currently pursuing his MA in Conflict Resolution in Divided Societies at King’s College, London. He has a PGCE in Religious Studies and Ethics from the University of Bristol and a BA in Philosophy from the University of Maryland, College Park. 

 Yet 

the article 

 through the Middle East. 

eu

 EU has no experience 

 Pertuslot 5/27/11 

 Vivien Pertusot is completing a Master&#39;s degree in Mediterranean Studies at King&#39;s College in London. His thesis focuses on US public diplomacy efforts in Arab regional TV media. He received his undergraduate diploma in History and Political Science from the University of Lille 3 in France. He also studied at Southwestern University in Texas as an exchange student where he became acquainted with public diplomacy through Joseph Nye&#39;s work. 

 The European Union’s (

EU) response 

 donor and trade partner. 

 Doesn’t solve US leverage with the SCAF – the perm is key 

 Ash 5/18/11 

 Timothy Garton Ash is a historian, political writer and Guardian columnist 

 From what I can gather 

 second world war. 

 US stance on reform makes or breaks Al-Qaeda 

 Zarate and Gordon summer 11 

 Juan C. Zarate is a Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism (2005— 2009). He can be reached at jzarate@csis.org. David A. Gordon is the Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project. He can be reached at dgordon@csis.org. Both are working on a year-long CSIS study on the future of al-Qaeda and its associated movements 

 Copyright # 2011 Center for Strategic and International Studies 

 The Washington Quarterly • 34:3 pp. 103122 

 DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2011.588305 

If inadequate reform 

movements in the region

. 

 Nuclear terror inevitable now 

Us Russia Joint 

Threat Assessment May 11 

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Joint-Threat-Assessment%20ENG%2027%20May%202011.pdf 

 ABOUT THE U.S.-RUSSIA JOINT THREAT ASSESSMENT ON NUCLEAR TERRORISM The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism is a collaborative project of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the U.S.A. and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences led by Rolf Mowatt-Larssen and Pavel Zolotarev. Authors: • Matthew Bunn. Associate Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School and Co-Principal Investigator of Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. • Colonel Yuri Morozov (retired Russian Armed Forces). Professor of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences and senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, chief of department at the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, 1995–2000. • Rolf Mowatt-Larssen. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence at the U.S. Department of Energy, 2005–2008. • Simon Saradzhyan. Fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Moscow-based defense and security expert and writer, 1993–2008. • William Tobey. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and director of the U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism, deputy administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, 2006–2009. • Colonel General Viktor I. Yesin (retired Russian Armed Forces). Senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and advisor to commander of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, chief of staff of the Strategic Missile Forces, 1994–1996. • Major General Pavel S. Zolotarev (retired Russian Armed Forces). Deputy director of the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and head of the Information and Analysis Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense, 1993–1997, deputy chief of staff of the Defense Council of Russia, 1997–1998. Contributor: • Vladimir Lukov, director general of autonomous non-profit organization “Counter-Terrorism Center.” 

The expert community 

nuclear terrorism occurs

. 

 Extinction 

Ayson 10

, Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (“After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict &#38; Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld) 

But these two nuclear 

with a devastating response. 

Eurozone collapse now 

Leo 

McKinstry

, Express, staff writer, 

9/15/

11, IF IT WASN’T FOR THE EU, EUROPE WOULD BE DOING JUST FINE, 

THE eurozone increasingly 

an economic one.

 The aff can’t solve—its intractable 

 Soros, 11 

 George F&#39;n Soros, October 2011, Does the Euro Have a Future?, 

 Unfortunately 

the euro 

 Anschutz Fellowship Applications 

 Europe can’t solve global problems 

 Bacevich, 10 

 Andrew, Bacevich, Boston University IR and History Professor, March/April 2010, Let Europe Be Europe,&#34;http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/22/let_europe_be_europe?page=full, 2/28] 

Europe

, however, 

is 

out of mischief. 

Decline inevitable and irrelevant 

Helgesen ‘11 

Vidar Helgesen, Secretary-General of International IDEA. “Reinvigorating the Infrastructure for Democracy Support: Strengthening multilateral mechanisms for coordinating and implementing democracy policy – what role for the EU and US”. March 3, 2011. 

Reviewing the transatlantic relationship 

support to democracy. 

trade / F bureau cp

 They fiat the Director of F Bureau. That is USAID Administrator Raj Shah, but he doesn’t control the money! 

Rogin

, writer for Foreign Policy, 

2010 

 (Josh, Clinton versus Kerry: the agency for international development war begins, ] 

 For example, the committee 

State

 Jack Lew. 

 The Deputy Secretary for Resources and Management controls the budget and out-ranks F Bureau – ignore any cards from before 2009 

George

, professor of security studies at Georgetown, 

and Rishikof

, professor of law at National Defense University, 

2011 

 [Roger and Harvey, The National Security Labyrinth: Navigating the Labyrinth, pg. 63] 

 Early in the second 

between State and USAID. 

 The Deputy Secretary will ignore the memo – he wants Egyptian and Congressional authorization 

Nides

, Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources, 2/14/

2011 

 [Thomas, “The Department’s 2012 Budget Request,” ] 

 QUESTION: Can you talk 

 the $1.5 billion. 

 Links to politics: Raj Shah closely tied to Obama – he promoted him young 

Sheridan

, writer for the Washington Post, 10/11/

2009 

 [Mary Beth, “Obama picks agriculture expert Rajiv Shah to lead USAID,” ] 

 President 

Obama

 on 

her trust in him

. 

 The State Department Quadrennial Review eliminates the F-Bureau – the new equivalent doesn’t yet have a director 

Saltzman

, the Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs, 5/31/

2011 

 [Amy, “Global Agricultural Developmental Initiative,” ] 

The QDDR outlines 

use of appropriated funds

. 

 Growth from liberalization isn’t sustainable 

 Eric 

Stoner 11

, adjunct professor at St. Peter&#39;s College, June 2, 

The results of

 these 

of their meaning

. 

 No solve signal 

 Jeremy M. 

Sharp 11

, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs at the CRS, “Egypt in Transition”, August 23, 

 Experts believe that 

Mubarak-era corruption

. 

 Links to politics 

CQ

, 7/22/

’11 

 (“Lieberman Presses Obama to Work on Trade Pacts With Egypt, Tunisia”) 

Where Will the Money 

 autocrat Hosni Mubarak. 

A2 APA net benefit

 No link – non-legislative documents only violate APA when they’re binding on the public – that’s what their author is discussing 

Anthony 92

 (Robert A., Foundation Professor of Law – George Mason University School of Law, “Interpretive Rules, Policy Statements, Guidances, Manuals, And The Like  Should Federal Agencies Use Them To Bind The Public?”, Duke Law Journal, June, 41 Duke L.J. 1311, Lexis) 

 With one exception 

 addressed by this Article. 

 Now, their advantage is a double turn – their argument why the APA is bad is that the “foreign affairs exception” allows executive agencies to get away with too much. But that’s not the APA… it’s an exception to the APA – the counterplan actually BROADENS THAT EXCEPTION. 

Costa

, Economic Policy Institute, 7/14/

2011 

 [Dan, “Guestworker Diplomacy,” ] 

The 

State

 Department 

the American public. 

 The turn is unique – they expand the exception 

Burrows

 and Garvey, Congressional Research Service, 1/4/

2011 

 [Vanessa and Todd, ] 

The APA exempts 

 distribution of property.” 47 

 Their author says APA exceptions are bad – this includes their 1NC card 

 Wirth ‘93 

 David A. Wirth – Assistant Professor of Law, Washington and Lee University – American University Journal of International Law &#38; Policy – Fall, 1993 – lexis 

 A great deal can 

 negotiation of international agreements. 

 Apocalyptic environmental predictions are empirically wrong 

 Ronald 

Bailey

, adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, May 

2k

,http://reason.com/0005/fe.rb.earth.shtml 

Earth Day 1970 provoked 

 for rational analysis. 

SFKTA

 Zero risk of Korean conflict 

 Ashley 

Rowland

, 12/3/20

10

. Stars and Stripes. “Despite threats, war not likely in Korea, experts say,” http://www.stripes.com/news/despite-threats-war-not-likely-in-korea-experts-say-1.127344?localLinksEnabled=false. 

Despite

 increasingly 

belligerent 

would be the elites

. 

 Not key to alliance 

Cooper

, Specialist, International Trade and Finance – CRS, 3/1/

’11 

 (William H, “The Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Provisions and Implications,” ) 

 Many observers have 

 U.S.-South Korean relations. 

 Uniqueness outweighs the link 

 Devaney, 9-22 

 Tim Devaney, staff writer, 9-22-2011, “Senate passes worker aid bill tied to delayed trade deals,” Washington Times, 

 Most recently, 

the 

for the greater good. 

 The aff doesn’t spend new money 

Hanley 5/13/11 

By Charles J. Hanley 

 of The Associated Press 

 The NDI, affiliated 

 funding previously planned. 

 Many fights between now and South Korean FTA – disaster aid, EPA, and China make the link inevitable 

Kasperowicz

, writer for The Hill, 

9/30

/2011 

 [Pete, “A closer look at next week…,” ] 

 The House and Senate 

 Panama and South 

Korea

. 

 Solyndra takes out the link 

 Restuccia, 9/25 

 (Energy &#38; Environment Columnist-The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/677-e2-wire/183755-for-house-gop-solyndra-saga-is-here-to-stay) 

House 

Republicans have 

the bill Friday. 

 Jobs bill first – drains capital 

 Economic Times, 9/25 

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-09-25/news/30200882_1_jobs-bill-david-plouffe-president-barack-obama 

US President Barack 

high unemployment rate. 

 China bashing 

 Raju, 9/28 

 Columnist-Politico, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64571.html 

When

 Senate Majority 

at least so far.” 

 No Child Left Behind 

Graham

, writer for the Richmond Far West Examiner, 

9/24

/2011 

 [Karen, ] 

On Friday

, September 23 

 than helping them. 

 Presidential leadership’s irrelevant 

Jacobs and King 10

, University of Minnesota, Nuffield College, (Lawrence and Desmond, “Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency,” Perspectives on Politics (2010), 8: 793-802) 

 But 

personality is not 

pitches go only so far

. 

 ROK won’t ratify – insufficient political capital 

 Inside U.S. Trade, 9-23 

 SEOUL TAKES STEP TOWARD FTA PASSAGE, BUT PATH FORWARD THIS FALL UNCLEAR 

 SECTION: Vol. 29 No. 37 

 This week, the U.S. 

 have, Jaung argued. 

 KORUS causes rising expectations – kills alliance and causes Korean adventurism 

Lee and Kim 10

, Phd, assistant professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Korea University (Dong and Sung, “ Ties That Bind? Assessing the Impact of Economic Interdependence on East Asian Alliances,” East Asia Institute, Security Initiative, Working Paper No. 3, ) 

 In the long run 

enduring security alliance. 

 Causes war 

Raska

, PhD candidate – Public Policy @ National University of Singapore, 11/26/

’10 

 (Michael, “Why Can’t South Korea Retaliate?” ) 

 However, this week’s 

broader regional crisis. 

 1AC – PLAN 

 The United States federal government should substantially increase civil society support to non governmental organizations for Egypt. 

 1AC – TRANSITION 

 Contention one is the transition 

 It’s failing – liberal parties are weak so the SCAF is taking over 

 Canassis 10/11/11 

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/10/how-liberals-are-losing-the-battle-for-egypts-future/246401/ 

 Thanassis Cambanis is the author of A Privilege to Die: Inside Hezbollah&#39;s Legions and Their Endless War Against Israel. He is a columnist at The Boston Globe and a regular contributor to The New York Times. He teaches at Columbia University&#39;s School of International and Public Affairs. 

 It&#39;s hard to … Mubarak went away. 

 Protests cause escalating SCAF crackdown 

 Eric Trager 10-11, The Washington Institute&#39;s Ira Weiner fellow, doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, “Action by Egypt&#39;s Military Rulers against Copts Endangers Transition”, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3408 

 The use of violence … Egypt&#39;s Coptic Christians. 

 They’ll suspend parliamentary elections 

 Stratfor 10/12/11 

http://tacstrat.com/content/?p=5215 

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc., more commonly known as STRATFOR, is a global intelligence company founded in 1996 in Austin, Texas by George Friedman who is the founder, chief intelligence officer, and CEO of the company. Fred Burton is STRATFOR&#39;s Vice President for Counterterrorism and Corporate Security. 

 The next several … Maspero on Sunday. 

 Even delaying the elections causes civil war 

 Arnaud de Borchgrave 10-12, editor-at-large of The Washington Times and United Press International, “Egypt’s Tower of Babel”, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/12/egypts-tower-of-babel/?page=1 

 The confidential message … may shrink perceptibly. 

 The Muslim Brotherhood will revolt 

 Agence Fracne Presse 9/14/11 

http://rt.com/news/new-protest-promised-in-egypt-559/ 

 The Muslim Brotherhood, the … in the country. 

 That guarantees hardliners takeover the Brotherhood – they’ll cancel the Peace Treaty, embolden Hamas, and provoke an Israeli invasion of the Sinai 

 Aftandilian 9/30/11 

 PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION SCENARIOSIN EGYPT AND THEIR IMPACTON U.S.-EGYPTIAN STRATEGIC RELATIONS 

http://www.scribd.com/doc/67821161/Presidential-Succession-Scenarios-in-Egypt-and-Their-Impact-on-U-S-Egyptian-Strategic-Relations 

 Mr. Gregory Aftandilian is an independent consultant, writer, and lecturer, having spent over 21 years in government service, most recently on Capitol Hill. He was foreign policy advisor to Congressman Chris Van Hollen (2007-08), professional staff member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and foreign policy adviser to Senator Paul Sarbanes (2000-04), and foreign policy fellow to Senator Edward Kennedy (1999). Prior to these positions, Mr. Aftandilian worked for 13 years as a Middle East analyst at the U.S. Department of State where he was a recipient of the Department’s Superior Honor Award for his analyses on Egypt. His other government experiences include analytical work for the U.S. Department of Defense and the Library of Congress. He was also a research fellow at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University (2006-07) and an International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York (1991-92). In addition, Mr. Aftandilian has worked as a consultant on Egyptian affairs for the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, and is an adjunct faculty member at Boston University and Northeastern University. Mr. Aftandilian is the author of Egypt’s Bid for Arab Leadership: Implications for U.S. Policy (1993); and Looking Forward: An Integrated Strategy for Supporting Democracy and Human Rights in Egypt (2009). Mr. Aftandilian holds a B.A. in history from Dartmouth College, an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Chicago, and an M.S. in international relations from the London School of Economics. 

 The Brotherhood’s experiment … new Arab-Israeli war. 

 Peace Treaty collapse goes nuclear – US involvement is key 

 Satloff, 11 

 Robert Satloff, executive director of The Washington Institute9/26/11, “Hanging by a Thread,” http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/opedsPDFs/4e68e438f05fd.pdf 

 IT’S THE GRANDDADDY … not to try. 

 Sinai instability goes nuclear 

 Zitun 9/5/11 

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4118220,00.html 

 staff writer, quoting Senior IDF officer 

 IDF general: Likelihood … by censorship officials. 

 Hamas will attack Israel – draws in Hezbollah 

 Friedman 8/22/11 

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110822-israeli-arab-crisis-approaching 

 George Friedman is an American political scientist and author. He is the founder, chief intelligence officer, financial overseer, and CEO of the private intelligence corporation Stratfor. He has authored several books, including The Next 100 Years, The Next Decade, America&#39;s Secret War, The Intelligence Edge, and The Future of War.[1] 

 Egypt is the power … that Israel has. 

 Extinction 

 Stirling 11 

http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2011/02/advanced-biological-warfare.html 

 B.Sc. in Pol. Sc. &#38; History; M.A. in European Studies; B.Sc. in Education, former Scottish Editor at Burke&#39;s Peerage in London 

 Saddam Hussein&#39;s military … Advanced Biological Warfare. 

 U.S. aid to independent NGO’s sends a signal that causes the SCAF to back reforms 

 Esposito 10/26/11 

http://www.policymic.com/group/showCompetition/id/2150 

 John Esposito University Professor as well as Professor of Religion and International Affairs and of Islamic Studies at Georgetown University, John L. Esposito is Founding Director of the Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding in the Walsh School of Foreign Service. Esposito has served as consultant to the U.S. Department of State and other agencies, European and Asian governments and corporations, universities, and the media worldwide. 

 The Way Forward We … we have talked. 

 Only the plan solves Egyptian confidence in the transition 

 Schenker 7/25/11 

http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52459 

 David Schenker is the Aufzien fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, from where this monograph, of which this is part 6, is adapted. Previously, he served as Levant country director, the Pentagon’s top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant, in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; in that capacity he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. 

 As Egypt approaches … a democratic system. 

 BUILDING CONFIDENCE among LIBERAL GROUPS solves protests 

 Paciello 11 

 Maria Cristina Paciello is researcher for Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Rome and lecturer in 

 Economic and Political Geography of Development at La Sapienza University of Rome. The author is 

 indebted to Dr Rym Ayadi, Prof. Abdul-Monem Al Mashat, Prof. Alia El-Mehdi and Dr Nathalie Tocci 

 for their insightful comments. 

 Egypt: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition 

 Maria Cristina Paciello 

 MEDPRO Technical Report No. 4/May 2011 

 While the direction … democracy moves forward. 

 Independently, strong civil society empowers moderates within the Brotherhood 

 Kevin Russell 8-22, PhD student in Political Science at Yale University. He previously worked in the Office of the Secretary of Defense primarily in the Middle East office for the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy. From 2008 to 2009 he was detailed to the State Dept as a governance advisor to a US Army Brigade in Taji, Iraq. Russell graduated with an MA from Johns Hopkins SAIS in 2004 and a BA in astrophysics and philosophy from Williams College in 2000, “The fight over democratic norms in Egypt”, http://www.opendemocracy.net/kevin-russell/fight-over-democratic-norms-in-egypt 

 However, the Tahrir … every traffic light. 

 1AC – IRAN 

 Contention two is Iran 

 The plan reinvigorates U.S. regional credibility – our stance on Egypt is key 

 Hamid 4/26/11 

 Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center 

http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx 

 The revolutions are … may still fail. 

 Backlash is inevitable and irrelevant 

 Shadi Hamid 10-1, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring, http://www.tnr.com/article/environment-energy/95538/arab-spring-obama-realism-democracy-neoconservatives-mubarak?page=0,1 

 Throughout the Arab … “stable,” repressive regimes. 

 Nothing else matters 

 Michele Kelemen 11, covers the State Department for NPR, “U.S. Could Use Egypt To Boost Credibility, Some Say”, February 11, https://www.npr.org/2011/02/11/133661083/u-s-could-use-egypt-to-boost-credibility-some-say 

 Miller says this … are real reforms. 

 The US must transition to an ideational model of Mid East engagement or risk total irrelevance – Egypt is the key 

 Peter Fettner 11, prof and PhD candidate in philosophy at Temple, published writer and researcher on US foreign policy, (writing under the pseudonym Byron), “Investigative Analysis: Soft Power in the Middle East – Reforming American Foreign Policy”, August 26, http://www.presstorm.com/2011/08/soft-power-in-the-middle-east-reforming-american-foreign-policy/ 

 It’s easy to … United States to respond. 

 Perception of US weakness emboldens Iran and causes other countries to bandwagon 

 Jon Alterman 11, director and senior fellow of the Middle East Program at CSIS, Former member of the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State and as a special assistant to the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, June 2011, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of U.S. Power,” http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf 

 Whatever the actual … actions and statements. 

 Credibility garnered from transitions solves Iran expansionism 

 Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf 

 America’s interest in … commitment in practice. 

 Causes regional war and miscalc 

 Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf 

 As it struggles … and game-changing war. 

 Goes nuclear 

 James A. Russell, Senior Lecturer, National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, ‘9 (Spring) “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” IFRI, Proliferation Papers, #26, http://www.ifri.org/downloads/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf 

 Strategic stability in … the entire world. 

 Their defense is out-dated and overly optimistic 

 Herbert I. London 10, President Emeritus of Hudson Institute, “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East”, June 23, http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&#38;id=7101&#38;pubType=HI_Opeds 

 The gathering storm … is a truly bad sign. 

((( (% align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" hspace="0" vspace="0" %) |(% align="left" style="padding-top:0in;padding-right:.1in; padding-bottom:0in;padding-left:.1in" valign="top" %)((( (% class="Hat" %) ~*~**2AC ))) ))) = A2 alt causes = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Tit-for-tat disputes don’t spillover (% class="MsoNormal" %) Daniel (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial" %)**__Twining and__**(%%), Senior Fellow for Asia at the German Marshall Fund, Richard (% style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial" %)**__Fontaine 11__**(%%), Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, “The Ties that Bind? U.S.—Indian Values-based Cooperation”, The Washington Quarterly 34:2 pp. 193-205 Spring 2011 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Iran and Burma underscore the limits …(% class="UnderlineBold" %)not share with other countries(%%).14 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Doesn’t take out solvency – value coop key (% class="MsoNormal" %) = transition = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Liberal buy-in solves crackdowns (% class="Cite" %) McIrney, 9/28 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Exec Director-POMED, http:~/~/mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/28/scaf_s_assault_on_egypt_s_civil_society) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="text-decoration:none" %)__ __ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)__Civil society__(%%) is an essential component of … (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)**__unequivocally stand up for their rights__**(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) = (% lang="FR" %)A2 EU collapse inev(%%) = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% lang="FR" %) (% class="Tag" %) (% lang="FR" %)EU =/= Eurozone (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% lang="FR" %) (% class="Tag" %) Europe agreement solved the crisis (% class="MsoNormal" %) Claire (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)**__Davenport__**(%%), irish examiner, (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)**__10/28__**(%%)/11, Agreement to finally draw line under crisis, [[www.irishexaminer.com/world/agreement-to-finally-draw-line-under-crisis-172127.html>>http://www.irishexaminer.com/world/agreement-to-finally-draw-line-under-crisis-172127.html]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" %)EUROPE(%%) (% class="Underline" %)and its(%%) troubled (% class="Underline" %)currency(%%) (% class="Underline" %)appears to …foundation" to solve the debt crisis. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %) = 2ac kiss of death = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) No link—the MB wants India to get involved (% class="Cite" %) Bagchi, 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Times of India Columnist, 2/28, http:~/~/articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-02-28/india/28641172_1_egypt-elections-post-mubarak-muslim-brotherhood) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) NEW DELHI: (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight: lime" %)__The__(%%)__ Muslim (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)Brotherhood(%%)__, Egypt's …. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)__with Egypt__(%%), which were negligible in the Mubarak years. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) No link and the plan boosts India’s soft power (% class="Cite" %) Times of India, 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (2/28, http:~/~/articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-02-28/edit-page/28641277_1_gulf-countries-soft-power-gulf-states) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) New Delhi's policy of non-interference in the …__seize the opportunities that open up.__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) = aid now = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Egypt aid now (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="CiteChar" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)McInerney(%%), Executive Director – Project on Middle East Democracy, (% class="CiteChar" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)‘11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Stephen, “The Federal Budget and Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2012, DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST,” POMED, July) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Across various departments and offices …of which has not yet been obligated. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Libya aid now – arms smuggling (% class="Cite" %) Daily mail, 10-27 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (“The moderate fanatics of the Islamist Winter”. [[http:~~/~~/phillipsblog.dailymail.co.uk/2011/10/the-moderate-fanatics-of-the-islamist-winter.html)TJ>>http://phillipsblog.dailymail.co.uk/2011/10/the-moderate-fanatics-of-the-islamist-winter.html)TJ]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) The ‘Arab Spring’ is turning just about …weapons are stored - and destroy them.’ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Obama promised more Egyptian aid on Wednesday (% class="Cite" %) Bikya Masr(% style="font-size: 10pt; text-decoration: none; " %) staff (%%)10/26/11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [[http:~~/~~/bikyamasr.com/46602/obama-calls-upon-egypt-to-end-emergency-law-hold-fair-elections/>>http://bikyamasr.com/46602/obama-calls-upon-egypt-to-end-emergency-law-hold-fair-elections/]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) Bikya Masr is a multiple award-winning news website with staff based in Egypt and across the globe (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) United States President Barak (% class="Underline" %)Obama expressed …(% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)package(%%) to Egypt (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)from(%%) the US (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)Congress(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) = asia = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="tag0" %) Hegemony not key to East Asian stability (% class="Cite" %) Algappa 8 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Muthia Alagappa, Distinguished Senior Fellow at the East-West Center, 2008, “The Long Shadow” (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Despite this, (% class="underline0" style="background: yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)the role of force in Asian(%%) international (% class="underline0" style="background:yellow;mso-highlight: yellow" %)politics is(% class="underline0" %) …(%%)diplomatic, and economic costs and risks are high. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) We solve – india relations key to asia presence (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Uniqueness overwhelms~-~-US maintaining its force posture in Asia (% class="Cite" %) Bumiller 10/23 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Elisabeth Bumiller, NY Times, 10/23/11, [[www.nytimes.com/2011/10/24/world/asia/panetta-tells-pacific-countries-that-us-will-keep-strong-presence.html?partner=rss&emc=rss>>http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/24/world/asia/panetta-tells-pacific-countries-that-us-will-keep-strong-presence.html?partner=rss&emc=rss]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta said on …(% class="Underline" %)in all(%%), largely in South Korea and Japan. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Plan doesn’t affect shift to Asia—it’s a defense spending question (% class="MsoNormal" %) Steve (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family: Arial" %)**__Clemons__**(%%), The Atlantic, (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family: Arial" %)**__10/27__**(%%)/11, Defense Cuts: Rebalancing Away from Middle East to Asia, [[www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/10/defense-cuts-rebalancing-away-from-middle-east-to-asia/247446/>>http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/10/defense-cuts-rebalancing-away-from-middle-east-to-asia/247446/]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="UnderlineBold" style="background:lime; mso-highlight:lime" %)The(%%) congressional "(% class="UnderlineBold" style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)Super Committee(%%)" by most …(% class="UnderlineBold" style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)defense portfolio will remain where it is now, if not more robust(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) = israel = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Their link’s to the MB, who will inevitably win the election – also says the economy, which we solve (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Relations unbreakable (% class="MsoNormal" %) Michael (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial" %)**__Oren 11__**(%%), Israel’s ambassador to the US, “The Ultimate Ally”, June, [[http:~~/~~/www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/25/the_ultimate_ally?page=0,5>>http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/25/the_ultimate_ally?page=0,5]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="background:lime; mso-highlight:lime" %)Israel is the only Middle Eastern state (% class="Underline" %)…partner par excellence, (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)America's ultimate ally(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) They want us to take action (% class="Cite" %) Freilich 6/9/11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [[http:~~/~~/belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/21117/much_ado_about_very_little.html?breadcrumb=%2Fexperts%2F870%2Fchuck_freilich>>http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/21117/much_ado_about_very_little.html?breadcrumb=%2Fexperts%2F870%2Fchuck_freilich]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) Chuck Freilich was a Deputy National Security Adviser in Israel. He is now an International Security Program Senior Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, where he has recently completed a book on Israeli national security decision-making processes. He is now working on a new book on national security challenges in the Middle East generally, with a focus on scenarios for developments in the region. Chuck's primary areas of expertise are the Middle East, U.S.-Middle East policy, and Israeli national security policy. He is an Adjunct Professor of political science at Harvard, New York, Columbia, and Tel Aviv Universities. Chuck has appeared as a commentator for ABC, CNN, NPR, Al Jazeera and various U.S. and Israeli radio and TV stations. He has been quoted in the New York Times and other media and has published numerous articles and op-eds. Chuck was a Senior Analyst at the Israel Ministry of Defense, focusing on strategic affairs, Policy Adviser to a cabinet minister and a Delegate at the Israeli Mission to the United Nations. He was the Executive Director of two nonprofit organizations and served in the Israel Defense Forces for five years (reserve major). Chuck earned his Ph.D. from Columbia University. Born in New York, he immigrated to Israel in his teens. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) For (% class="Underline" %)Israel, a democratizing Middle East …(% class="UnderlineBold" %)US, (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)Israel(%%) and the region itself. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Bunker buster overcomes tit-for-tat disagreements (% class="MsoNormal" %) Michael (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial" %)**__Singh 9-27__**(%%), managing director of The Washington Institute and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council, “Obama and Israel: Hot or Cold?”, [[http:~~/~~/www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1725>>http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1725]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Is the Obama administration's relationship ….of the U.S.-Israel alliance, however, is questionable. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Freakout’s inevitable – prisoner swap (% class="MsoNormal" %) Dave (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial" %)**__Bohon 10-20__**(%%), The New American, “Israel Willingly Compromises Its Security with Hamas Prisoner Swap”, [[http:~~/~~/www.thenewamerican.com/world-mainmenu-26/asia-mainmenu-33/9450-israel-willingly-compromises-its-security-with-hamas-prisoner-swap>>http://www.thenewamerican.com/world-mainmenu-26/asia-mainmenu-33/9450-israel-willingly-compromises-its-security-with-hamas-prisoner-swap]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) A historic and highly controversial (% class="UnderlineBold" style="background:aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)prisoner (% class="UnderlineBold" %)….(%%)as the occupation holds Palestinian prisoners.” (% class="MsoNormal" %) = 2ac scaf backlash = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) No link—India will only do projects the SCAF approves (% class="Cite" %) Bhasin, 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Visiting Scholar at Center for South Asia Studies, UC Berkeley and a Fellow with Global India Foundation, 3/16, [[http:~~/~~/foreignpolicyblogs.com/2011/03/16/indias-approach-to-democracy-promotion/>>http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2011/03/16/indias-approach-to-democracy-promotion/]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) __Response to the protests__ in the Middle East __…__complex strategic interests were involved.) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) No impact to smear campaigns (% class="MsoNormal" %) Amira (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial" %)**__Maaty 11__**(%%), program officer on the MENA team of the NED, “Civil society a force in Egypt’s democratization”, April 29, [[http:~~/~~/www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/04/civil-society-a-force-in-egypts-democratization/>>http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/04/civil-society-a-force-in-egypts-democratization/]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) In the run- up to Egypt’s January 25 …youth-led NGOs as well as groups based outside the capital. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) US – SCAF relations resilient (% class="Cite" %) Dunne, 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Scholar-Middle East Institute and former staff member of the U.S. National Security Council, 2/12, http:~/~/blogs.the-american-interest.com/middleeast/2011/02/12/after-mubarak/) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) First, __the ability of the United States to …military carries out this program and retrenchment if it does not__. (% class="MsoNormal" %) = relations add-on – heg = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Relations are key to hegemony (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial" %)**__Donnelly and Wisner 5__**(%%), Thomas Donnelly is a resident fellow at AEI. Melissa Wisner is a research assistant at AEI, (“ A Global Partnership between the U.S. and India,” September, [[http:~~/~~/www.aei.org/outlook/23139>>http://www.aei.org/outlook/23139]]) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt" %) As National Security Outlook argued in its …will aid in suggesting a path forward. (% class="MsoNormal" %) = conditions = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) India rejects tied aid (% class="MsoNormal" %) Gareth (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial" %)**__Price 4__**(%%), head of the Asia programme at Chatham House and specialises in India. He previously worked at the Economist Intelligence Unit, “India’s aid dynamics: from recipient to donor?”, September, [[http:~~/~~/www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Asia/wp200904.pdf>>http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Asia/wp200904.pdf]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) But while the policy changes were ….suggested would be generally discontinued—(% class="UnderlineBold" %)is surprising(%%).17 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) The CP’s illegal – must give aid to NGO’s (% class="MsoNormal" %) Gareth (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial" %)**__Price 4__**(%%), head of the Asia programme at Chatham House and specialises in India. He previously worked at the Economist Intelligence Unit, “India’s aid dynamics: from recipient to donor?”, September, [[http:~~/~~/www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Asia/wp200904.pdf>>http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Asia/wp200904.pdf]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) In his 2003/04 budget speech, the then finance …Nations agencies or other multilateral institutions; (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Causes huge backlash – they’ll restrict Suez access (% class="MsoNormal" %) Tom (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial; background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)**__Curry 11__**(% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %),(%%) national affairs writer for MSNBC, “New challenges for U.S.-Egyptian military ties”, February 11, [[http:~~/~~/www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41521234/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/t/new-challenges-us-egyptian-military-ties/%29#.Tm4wpuuhCsI>>http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41521234/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/t/new-challenges-us-egyptian-military-ties/%29#.Tm4wpuuhCsI]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) The most dramatic action Obama and …(% class="Underline" %)and the limits of U.S. knowledge(%%).” (% class="MsoNormal" %) = 2ac – orientalism = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) The role of the ballot is to simulate enactment of the plan. That’s the most productive way to engage Mid East politics (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="CiteChar" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)Heydemann(%%), director – Program on Philanthropy and Nonprofit Sector @ Social Science Research Council, frmr Prof Poli Sci – Columbia, (% class="CiteChar" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)‘2 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Steve, “Defending the Discipline,” Journal of Democracy Vol. 13, No. 3, Muse) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Though Kramer's book is severely … (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="background:aqua; mso-highlight:aqua" %)in the Mid(% class="Underline" %)dle (% style="background:aqua; mso-highlight:aqua" %)East(%%) during the course of the 1990s. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Method focus causes endless paradigm wars (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="CiteChar" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)Wendt(%%), professor of international security – Ohio State University, (% class="CiteChar" style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)‘98 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Alexander, “On Constitution and Causation in International Relations,” British International Studies Association) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) As a community, we in the academic study … (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="UnderlineBold" %)often one-sided, intolerant caricatures(% class="Underline" %) of science. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Perm do both (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Perm do the plan and all parts of the alt that don’t reject the aff (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) No impact – threat construction isn’t sufficient to cause wars (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="CiteChar" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)Kaufman(%%), Prof Poli Sci and IR – U Delaware, (% class="CiteChar" style="font-size: 12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)‘9 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Stuart J, “Narratives and Symbols in Violent Mobilization: The Palestinian-Israeli Case,” //Security Studies// 18:3, 400 – 434) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="background:lime; mso-highlight:lime" %)Even when hostile narratives(%%), group (% class="Underline" %)fears, and (% class="MsoNormal" %) chauvinist mobilization, and a security dilemma. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Perm do the plan and sever our reps – justified by conditionality (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Orientalism is a methodological disaster – we have to see if the aff is true FIRST (% class="Cite" %) Teitelbaum and Litvak 6 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [[http:~~/~~/www.gloria-center.org/meria/2006/03/Teitelbaum_Litvak.pdf>>http://www.gloria-center.org/meria/2006/03/Teitelbaum_Litvak.pdf]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) Joshua Teitelbaum is Senior Fellow, Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies, Tel Aviv University, and Adjunct Senior Lecturer in the Department of Middle Eastern History, Bar Ilan University. Meir Litvak is Senior Fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies, and Senior Lecturer in the Department of Middle Eastern and African History, Tel Aviv University. Dr. Teitelbaum began his studies at UCLA in 1976; Dr. Litvak began his at Tel Aviv University in 1980. In this article, they reflect on the influence of Said's Orientalism throughout their years of studying and teaching about Islam and the Middle East. They hope it will be useful to students and teachers alike. This is a revised and expanded version of an article which appeared in Hamizrah Hehadash, Vol. 45 (2005 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="UnderlineBold" %) (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight: yellow" %)"REPRESENTATION" AND HISTORICAL TRUTH(%%) …an unfavorable light "with satisfaction. "50 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Their links are essentialist and prove orientalism’s inevitable – we reverse the tragedy of past imperialism (% class="Cite" %) Ahadi and Masazi 7/26/11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [[http:~~/~~/maryamnamazie.blogspot.com/2011/07/arab-spring-is-not-black-spring-open.html>>http://maryamnamazie.blogspot.com/2011/07/arab-spring-is-not-black-spring-open.html]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) Mina Ahadi (short biography in German) was born in Iran in 1956. She started her political activities by setting up discussion clubs and performances when she was only 14. She was actively involved as a university student in the 1979 Iranian revolution. When the Islamic government gained power and Khomeini issued a fatwa for compulsory Islamic veiling, she organised meetings and demonstrations against the government. Mina is the founder and coordinator of the International Committees against Execution and Stoning. Mina Ahadi has lived in Europe since 1990. Recently she has founded the Central Council of Ex-Muslims to expose Islamic laws and its affects on people. She is currently under police protection for her ctivities. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) In reality, however, ‘doctrine’ alone …modern and human Middle East and North Africa. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) The alt fails and __destroys minority rights__ – sectarian violence causes __re-securitization__ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="CiteChar" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)Roe(%%), Assistant Professor, International Relations and European Studies – Central European University, (% class="CiteChar" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)‘4 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Paul, “Securitization and Minority Rights: Conditions of Desecuritization,” //Security Dialogue//, Vol. 35, No. 3, September) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Aradau’s (valuable) contentions aside, what I want …(% class="UnderlineBold" style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)for emergency politics on both sides is reduced(% class="UnderlineBold" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Solves best – __management__ of threat construction moderates the security dilemma – maintains minority rights (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="CiteChar" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)Roe(%%), Assistant Professor, International Relations and European Studies – Central European University, (% class="CiteChar" style="font-size:12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)‘6 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Paul, “Reconstructing Identities or Managing Minorities? Desecuritizing Minority Rights: A Response to Jutila,” //Security Dialogue//, Vol. 37, No. 3) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) As Kymlicka (2002: 3–4) points out, although, as in …securitization, no, it does not determine it. (% class="Tag" %) Violence is declining (% class="MsoNormal" %) Steven (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial" %)**__Pinker 11__**(%%), professor of psychology at Harvard, The Better Angels of our Nature, October, googlebooks (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) This book is about what may be the most …human minds deal with changing circumstances. (% class="MsoNormal" %) = (% style="text-decoration:none" %) (%%) = (% class="MsoNormal" %) ((( (% align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" hspace="0" vspace="0" %) |(% align="left" style="padding-top:0in;padding-right:.1in; padding-bottom:0in;padding-left:.1in" valign="top" %)((( (% class="Hat" %) ~*~**1AR ))) ))) \\ = kod = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) No link—India has unique credibility in Egypt (% class="Cite" %) Twinning, 8/24 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Senior Fellow for Asia at the German Marshall Fund, http:~/~/the-diplomat.com/2011/08/24/india’s-arab-spring-opportunity/ (% class="MsoNormal" %) The fall of Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi stands ….Bangladesh, Bhutan, and, most prominently, Afghanistan. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) They’ll take our money regardless (% class="Cite" %) Business Today Egypt 4/5/11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) [[http:~~/~~/www.businesstodayegypt.com/news/display/article/artId:63>>http://www.businesstodayegypt.com/news/display/article/artId:63]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) While (% class="Underline" %)this accusation(%%) has been levelled against… we’re going to do the same thing.” (% class="MsoNormal" %) = cp = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) They’ll say no – sovereignty and national pride (% class="MsoNormal" %) Gareth (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial" %)**__Price 4__**(%%), head of the Asia programme at Chatham House and specialises in India. He previously worked at the Economist Intelligence Unit, “India’s aid dynamics: from recipient to donor?”, September, [[http:~~/~~/www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Asia/wp200904.pdf>>http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Asia/wp200904.pdf]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Clearly, other factors contributed to the decision. ….(% class="UnderlineBold" %)need of official development assistance(%%).6 (% class="MsoNormal" %) = scaf = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Protests cause escalating SCAF crackdown (% class="MsoNormal" %) Eric (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial" %)**__Trager 10-11__**(%%), The Washington Institute's Ira Weiner fellow, doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, “Action by Egypt's Military Rulers against Copts Endangers Transition”, http:~/~/www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3408 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="UnderlineBold" style="background:yellow; mso-highlight:yellow" %)The use of violence(% class="UnderlineBold" %) by Egypt's military rulers ….government-sponsored (% style="background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow" %)pogroms(%%) against Egypt's Coptic Christians. (% class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:.25in" %) (% class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:.25in" %) (% class="Tag" %) They’d consult them before starting (% class="Cite" %) Business Line, 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (2/26, http:~/~/www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/economy/article1492224.ece) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) “(% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)__Because of our__(%%)__ own (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)experience(%%) in …__and their requirements,” she said. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) India will only do what’s approved by the gov (% class="Cite" %) Twinning, 8/24 (% class="MsoNormal" %) Senior Fellow for Asia at the German Marshall Fund, http:~/~/the-diplomat.com/2011/08/24/india’s-arab-spring-opportunity/ (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Officials have been understandably modest …__to them__. But let the situation arise.’ (% class="Tag" %) (% class="Tag" %) No chance that they’ll close the Suez (% class="Cite" %) Bouasria, 11 (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Prof-Arab Studies-Intl Center for Language Studies, 4/21, https:~/~/store.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=13047) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) __In addition, (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight: lime" %)ending U.S. aid would not …would be (%%)inevitable, swift and (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)devastating(%%)__(% style="mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) The military prioritizes self-interest (% class="Cite" %) (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)M(%%)id (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)E(%%)ast (% style="background: lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)Q(%%)uarterly, (% style="background:lime; mso-highlight:lime" %)2K (% class="MsoNormal" %) (Forum of ME Policy Experts, http:~/~/www.meforum.org/48/the-united-states-and-egypt-how-allied-a-debate) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) Cook: These are all valid points about ….__planes or train (% style="background:lime;mso-highlight:lime" %)or use the Suez(%%) Canal__. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) = israel = (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) No impact – slow spread and defense mechanisms (% class="citenon-bold" %) (% class="CiteChar" lang="X-NONE" style="font-size: 12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:~"Times New Roman~"" %)Mueller 99(% lang="X-NONE" %), John Mueller, Prof. Pol. Sci. @ Ohio State and Karl Mueller, June, ’99 (Foreign Affairs, l/n) (% class="NormalText" %) (% class="NormalText" %) (% style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:13.0pt" %)Biological weapons seem a promising …(% class="Underline" style="background: aqua;mso-highlight:aqua" %)be countered with civil defense measures. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Their evidence is pure hype (% class="MsoNormal" %) Leo (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial" %)**__Rennert 11__**(%%), journalist and former White House correspondent, “NY Times manufactures a crisis in U.S.-Israel relations”, February 6, [[http:~~/~~/www.americanthinker.com/blog/2011/02/ny_times_manufactures_a_crisis.html>>http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2011/02/ny_times_manufactures_a_crisis.html]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) With scant real evidence, but with plenty …(% class="Underline" %)the sounder course all along(%%). (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Obama UN speech (% class="MsoNormal" %) Robert (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial" %)**__Satloff 9-22__**(%%), executive director of The Washington Institute, “Obama's Focus at the UN: Getting Passionate about Israel”, [[http:~~/~~/www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1718>>http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1718]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) President Obama's speech at the United …mediator of peace diplomacy. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Tag" %) Public opinion (% class="MsoNormal" %) Michael (% style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial" %)**__Oren 11__**(%%), Israel’s ambassador to the US, “The Ultimate Ally”, June, [[http:~~/~~/www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/25/the_ultimate_ally?page=0,5>>http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/25/the_ultimate_ally?page=0,5]] (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) By definition, realists seek a foreign …democratic principles and pursuing its vital interests. (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="MsoNormal" %) (% class="Underline" style="text-decoration: none" %)

http:~/~/deaconsource.wikispaces.com/ Everything from Harvard and going forward will be posted there ^. The only file missing is the Harvard Quarters versus NU BM, which I will attach to this wiki page tonight (11/4). Any earlier cite/intel stuff email markoffa@gmail.com (has all the documents) or andrewwilliamarsht@gmail.com (more fun to talk to?).

Aff: Georgetown AM

Round #6   Tournament: Wake

vs: Samford BL

Judge: Charles Olney

Plan Text

Technical assistance to NGOs

1ac Advantages

Transition ADV (civil war, Israel war, biowarfare)

Credibility ADV (prolif, iran)

2ac Offense

Heg add-on to credibility

Asian Prolif Add-On to credibility

***Plan = executive on politics

1ar Strategy

Extended add-ons

2ar Strategy

Aff: Georgetown AM

Round # 1  Tournament: Wake!

vs: Idaho State RV

Judge: Scott Varda

Plan Text

1ac Advantages

Civil War/Credibility w/ Middle East War, Heg, Iran impacts

2ac Offense

Soft power is good, epistemological focus is bad, democracy is good, perm

1ar Strategy

Perm, soft power good, defense on framework/role of ballot

2ar Strategy

See 1AR

1ac – plan

The United States federal government should substantially increase its civil society support to non governmental organizations for Egypt.

1ac – adv 1

Contention one is credibility

SCAF is cracking down on protestors

Eric Trager 10-11, The Washington Institute's Ira Weiner fellow, doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Pennsylvania, “Action by Egypt's Military Rulers against Copts Endangers Transition”, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3408

The use of violence …-sponsored pogroms against Egypt's Coptic Christians.

They’ll suspend parliamentary elections

Stratfor 10/12/11

http://tacstrat.com/content/?p=5215

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc., more commonly known as STRATFOR, is a global intelligence company founded in 1996 in Austin, Texas by George Friedman who is the founder, chief intelligence officer, and CEO of the company. Fred Burton is STRATFOR's Vice President for Counterterrorism and Corporate Security.

The next several weeks … those soldiers in Maspero on Sunday.

Even delaying the elections causes civil war

Arnaud de Borchgrave 10-12, editor-at-large of The Washington Times and United Press International, “Egypt’s Tower of Babel”, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/12/egypts-tower-of-babel/?page=1

The confidential message that reached … campaign, the geostrategic comfort zone may shrink perceptibly.

U.S. aid to independent NGO’s sends a signal that causes the SCAF to back off crackdowns

Esposito 10/26/11

http://www.policymic.com/group/showCompetition/id/2150

 John Esposito University Professor as well as Professor of Religion and International Affairs and of Islamic Studies at Georgetown University, John L. Esposito is Founding Director of the Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding in the Walsh School of Foreign Service. Esposito has served as consultant to the U.S. Department of State and other agencies, European and Asian governments and corporations, universities, and the media worldwide.

The Way Forward  We live in a … pro-democracy forces, let's walk the way we have talked.

Liberal parties despise the U.S. because Obama cut off aid to independent pro-democracy groups – the plan makes amends

Thiessen, 11

(Visiting Fellow-AEI, 2/15, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/14/AR2011021403059.html)

The extraordinary scenes in Cairo this past … aspirations of Egyptians are fulfilled, perhaps it's not too late to win them back.

That sends a signal throughout the region – Egypt is the key

Hamid 4/26/11

Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center

http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2011/0426_middle_east_hamid.aspx

The revolutions are far from complete. Tunisia  … community to follow. Otherwise, their revolutions may still fail.

Backlash is inevitable and irrelevant

Shadi Hamid 10-1, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring, http://www.tnr.com/article/environment-energy/95538/arab-spring-obama-realism-democracy-neoconservatives-mubarak?page=0,1

Throughout the Arab spring, analysts and … with decades of support for “stable,” repressive regimes.

Nothing else matters

Michele Kelemen 11, covers the State Department for NPR, “U.S. Could Use Egypt To Boost Credibility, Some Say”, February 11, https://www.npr.org/2011/02/11/133661083/u-s-could-use-egypt-to-boost-credibility-some-say

Miller says this is part of a long trend for … to make sure there are real reforms.

The US must transition to an ideational model of Mid East engagement or risk total irrelevance – Egypt is the key

Peter Fettner 11, prof and PhD candidate in philosophy at Temple, published writer and researcher on US foreign policy, (writing under the pseudonym Byron), “Investigative Analysis: Soft Power in the Middle East – Reforming American Foreign Policy”, August 26, http://www.presstorm.com/2011/08/soft-power-in-the-middle-east-reforming-american-foreign-policy/

It’s easy to read the revolutions across the … soft power in a way that has forced the United States to respond.

This neo-realist strategy is uniquely effective – we’re the opposite of Iraq

Adnan 7

http://arabspring.blogspot.com/2007/11/where-wilsonian-idealism-and.html

 Dr. Sama Adnan is executive director of NewPolicy.org and New Policy PAC, an American lobby for Middle East peace.

Changing the map of the Middle East through … and expedient avenues to maintain its prominence in the region.

Weak credibility eviscerates US power projection

Cohen, 11

Craig Cohen, vice president for Research and Programs at CSIS and editor of this volume, serves as principal adviser to CSIS president, June 2011, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of U.S. Power,” http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf

This study finds that citizens of countries of the … to the region could still shape order for decades to come.

Nuclear war

Barnett, Professor, Warfare Analysis and Research Dept – U.S. Naval War College, 3/7/’11

(Thomas, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads)

Events in Libya are a further reminder …in battle deaths from state-based conflicts.

There’s no alternative – only US presence in the Middle East prevents war

Freeman 6/12/11

Freeman, C. W. (2011), The Arab Reawakening: Strategic Implications. Middle East Policy, 18: 29–36. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-4967.2011.00482.x

Charles W. ("Chas") Freeman, Jr. (born 1943) is an American diplomat, author, and writer. He has served for the State and Defense Departments in many different capacities in the past thirty years,[1] with the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs calling his career "remarkably varied". He most notably worked as the main interpreter for Richard Nixon in his 1972 China visit and as the United States Ambassador to Saudi Arabia from 1989 to 1992, where he dealt with issues related to the Persian Gulf War.[2] He is a past president of the Middle East Policy Council, co-chair of the U.S. China Policy Foundation, and vice-chair of the Atlantic Council.[3]

These changes are occurring as the … Iran than to join others in countering it.

These transition wars escalate – containment’s impossible

Herbert I. London 10, President Emeritus of Hudson Institute, “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East”, June 23, http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds

The gathering storm in the Middle East is gaining momentum. … tend to believe in its veracity. That is a truly bad sign.

Goes nuclear

James A. Russell, Senior Lecturer, National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, ‘9 (Spring) “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” IFRI, Proliferation Papers, #26, http://www.ifri.org/downloads/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf

Strategic stability in the region is …., with substantial risk for the entire world.

States will inevitably compete for relative status – only primacy can prevent conflict

Wohlforth 9, Professor of government at Dartmouth, (William, “Unipolarity, Status Competition, and Great Power War” World Politics, 61:1, January, Project Muse)

 Second, I question the dominant … their material interest in security and/or prosperity.

A policy of strict non-intervention is untenable this year in Egypt – it reproduces the worst elements of imperialist thinking via extreme cultural relativism

Ahadi and Masazi 7/26/11

http://maryamnamazie.blogspot.com/2011/07/arab-spring-is-not-black-spring-open.html

 Mina Ahadi (short biography in German) was born in Iran in 1956. She started her political activities by setting up discussion clubs and performances when she was only 14. She was actively involved as a university student in the 1979 Iranian revolution. When the Islamic government gained power and Khomeini issued a fatwa for compulsory Islamic veiling, she organised meetings and demonstrations against the government. Mina is the founder and coordinator of the International Committees against Execution and Stoning. Mina Ahadi has lived in Europe since 1990. Recently she has founded the Central Council of Ex-Muslims to expose Islamic laws and its affects on people. She is currently under police protection for her ctivities.

 In reality, however, ‘doctrine’ alone was … and human Middle East and North Africa. 

Violence is declining

Steven Pinker 11, professor of psychology at Harvard, The Better Angels of our Nature, October, googlebooks

This book is about what may be the … how human minds deal with changing circumstances.

Disproving our theories and concepts isn’t enough – focus on specificity is the best heuristic to describe real-world problems

Kratochwil, professor of international relations – European University Institute, ‘8

(Friedrich, “The Puzzles of Politics,” pg. 200-213)

In what follows, I claim that the shift …, “new and improved” versions of familiar products.

Specifically for democracy promotion in Egypt

Drewes 11

http://pure.au.dk/portal-asb-student/files/36563556/36290797.pdf

Aarhus School of Business and Social Sciences, Aarhus University. Department of Language and Business

By not sticking to one theory, the picture and …. In a scientific reality this might provide the best possible approach.

The academy has not ignored critical theory, our authors acknowledge and assume the fallibility of their models

Lockman, Chair – Department of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies @ NYU, Spring ‘5

(Zachary, “Critique from the Right: The Neo-conservative Assault on Middle East Studies,” The New Centennial Review 5.1, Muse)

It may be too soon to tell, but … and dynamics of change that affected large stretches of Eurasia.

Perception of US weakness emboldens Iran and causes other countries to bandwagon

Jon Alterman 11, director and senior fellow of the Middle East Program at CSIS, Former member of the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State and as a special assistant to the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, June 2011, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of U.S. Power,” http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf

Whatever the … discrete set of actions and statements.

Credibility garnered from transitions solves Iran expansionism

Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf

America’s interest in preventing … commitment in practice.

Causes regional war and miscalc

Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf

As it struggles to recalibrate … and game-changing war.

2AC Cites 

framework

The role of the ballot is to simulate enactment of the plan. That’s the most productive way to engage Mid East politics

Heydemann, director – Program on Philanthropy and Nonprofit Sector @ Social Science Research Council, frmr Prof Poli Sci – Columbia, ‘2

(Steve, “Defending the Discipline,” Journal of Democracy Vol. 13, No. 3, Muse)

Though Kramer's book is severely flawed, 2 the … of political liberalization in the Middle East during the course of the 1990s.

method focus bad

Method focus causes endless paradigm wars

Wendt, professor of international security – Ohio State University, ‘98

(Alexander, “On Constitution and Causation in International Relations,” British International Studies Association)

As a community, we in the academic …-sided, intolerant caricatures of science.

no root cause

Violence is proximately caused – root cause logic is poor scholarship

Sharpe, lecturer, philosophy and psychoanalytic studies, and Goucher, senior lecturer, literary and psychoanalytic studies – Deakin University, ‘10

(Matthew and Geoff, Žižek and Politics: An Introduction, p. 231 – 233)

We realise that this argument, …, neither reading it nor taking it seriously.

Util’s the only moral framework

Murray 97 (Alastair, Professor of Politics at U. Of Wales-Swansea, Reconstructing Realism, p. 110)

Weber emphasised that, while the 'absolute ethic of … this doctrine 'leads to the negation of absolute ethical judgements altogether'.13 

fem

Case o/w – collapse of hegemony causes global transition wars

Doesn’t turn the case – their evidence says colonial powers have messed with civil society before, but they’re asking for support now

Current transitional government suppresses and abuses women.  Taking the SCAF to task solves

Coleman 6/1/11

 Isobel Coleman, Senior Fellow and Director of the Civil Society, Markets, and Democracy Initiative; Director of the Women and Foreign Policy Program

http://www.cfr.org/egypt/virginity-tests-abuse-egypts-women/p25186

Egyptian security forces have a long and … is an important step in that process.

Consolidated Muslim Brotherhood role advances patriarchal control

Mastracci 3/14/11

McGill University, Liberal Arts Department

http://www.mcgilldaily.com/2011/03/women-in-egypt/

 This question is particularly important in .. centuries, toward equality.

Perm do both – rejecting the plan is not key to solidarity

Western pragmatism can be combined with Afro-womanist epistemology

Susan Arndt 2k, research fellow at the University of Frankfurt specializing in feminism, “African Gender Trouble and African Womanism: An Interview with Chikwenye Ogunyemi

and Wanjira Muthoni”, Signs, Vol. 25, No. 3 (Spring, 2000), pp. 709-726

SA: I wonder what the relationship between your … little access to formal life-enhancing education.

Radical participation without prior institution-building devolves into violence and exclusion

Thede, professor of international relations and international development – University du Quebec, ‘11

(Nancy, “Democratic agency in the local political sphere. Reflections on inclusion in Bolivia,” Democratization, 18:1, p. 211 – 235)

The opening of the local political sphere …. and negotiations carried out amongst them.

no intervention

Zero risk of intervention

David Mathieson and, Associate Fellow at FRIDE. He holds a doctorate from the University of London, Richard Youngs 6, Co-ordinator of the Democratisation programme at FRIDE, and lecturer at the University of Warwick, “Democracy Promotion and the European Left: Ambivalence Confused?”, December, working paper 29 at FRIDE

The left needs to get beyond a line of ‘the … evolution in its own internal debates during the 1990s.

orientalism

The alt necessitates violent relativism and policy paralysis

Ray Kiely 95, professor of International Politics at Queen Mary University, “Third Worldist Relativism: A New Form Of Imperialism”, Journal of Contemporary Asia v25 no2 p159-78

First, as many critics have pointed out (see Habermas … potentially a crude justification for the way things are.

Supporting democracy mitigates the clash of civ by endorsing representative government for all people

Shibley Telhami 5, professor for peace and development at the University of Maryland, “Democracy: Rising Tide or Mirage?”, April 22, http://www.mepc.org/journal/middle-east-policy-archives/democracy-rising-tide-or-mirage

Whatever the intent of the advocacy …. of the clash on the other side.

The link is small

Ray Kiely 95, professor of International Politics at Queen Mary University, “Third Worldist Relativism: A New Form Of Imperialism”, Journal of Contemporary Asia v25 no2 p159-78

The purpose of this article is to challenge a … premises and political implications of relativist thought.

liberalism

Orientalism is relativism

Liberal democracy is statistically more peaceful than any alternative

Zakaria, Political Science – Harvard, editor – Newsweek, ‘97

(Fareed, http://www.fareedzakaria.com/ARTICLES/other/democracy.html)

Lang's embarrassment highlights two common, …., it turns out, has little to do with democracy.

Liberalism can affirm cultural difference and contingency – their critique is a totalizing portrayal of liberalism that destroys progressive change

Arslan, professor of government – Polis Akademisi Güvenlik Bilimleri Fakültesi, ‘99

(Zhutu, “Taking Rights Less Seriously,” Res Publica 5)

Incredulous of foundational truth claims, … they need to begin taking rights more seriously.

Speaking for others is necessary for collective action and political reform – the neg commits ontological violence by retreating to false individual locations of experience.

Sells 97 (Laura, Instructor of Speech Communication at Louisiana State University, “On Feminist Civility: Retrieving the Political in the Feminist Public Forum”, this paper was presented at a Roundtable on "Public Speaking and the Feminist Public Sphere: Doing Difference Differently," at the Western States Communication Association conference, 1997.)

In her recent article, "The Problems of Speaking For Others," … and coalition necessitate speaking for others.

dem models

No uq for the tradeoff between focus on Egypt and women – policy FW is the community norm now – no reason the ballot spillsover

Dillon Keenan voted on no difference between life and death 2 weeks ago and people thought it was funny but no change

Conceiving models as zero-sum crushes the alt

Jonathan Murphy 10, Lecturer in International Management and Organizational Analysis at Cardiff Business School, ““Democracy? That’s so last year”: exploring the backlash against democracy promotion”, http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/projects/orthodoxies/papers/101213_muphy_j.pdf

The argument that ‘participatory … acting ‘in the interests’ of the people.

role of ballot

Their specific form of advocacy SHUTS DOWN DEBATE – starting with personal experiential narratives makes it IMPOSSIBLE to NEGATE

SUBOTNIK 98

Professor of Law, Touro College, Jacob D. Fuchsberg Law Center.

7 Cornell J. L. & Pub. Pol'y 681

Having traced a major strand in the … the streets and the airwaves.

Even if they win the link, it’s still good – builds coalitions and stops violence

John Rawls, The Law of Peoples, ‘99, p. 56-57

To answer this question, we say that, … basis of peace and understanding among peoples.

It’s a uniquely radical practice

Jessica Kulynych, Asst Professor of Political Science at Winthrop University, Polity, Winter, ‘97, n2 p315(32)

When we look at the success of citizen … their construction as passive clients.

transition

No impact to stigma

Haas, 9/8

(9/8, Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the American Foreign Policy Council, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/09/08/v-print/123482/the-stakes-are-far-too-high-for.html)

America cannot dictate the … Washington for its efforts.

No impact

Amira Maaty 11, program officer on the MENA team of the NED, “Civil society a force in Egypt’s democratization”, April 29, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/04/civil-society-a-force-in-egypts-democratization/

In the run- up to Egypt’s January 25 … outside the capital.

scaf

Liberal buy-in solves crackdowns

McIrney, 9/28

(Exec Director-POMED, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/28/scaf_s_assault_on_egypt_s_civil_society)

Civil society is an essential component of any … to unequivocally stand up for their rights.

US – SCAF relations resilient

Dunne, 11

(Scholar-Middle East Institute and former staff member of the U.S. National Security Council, 2/12, http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/middleeast/2011/02/12/after-mubarak/)

First, the ability of the United States to influence … program and retrenchment if it does not.

Weak credibility eviscerates US power projection

Cohen, 11

Craig Cohen, vice president for Research and Programs at CSIS and editor of this volume, serves as principal adviser to CSIS president, June 2011, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of U.S. Power,” http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf

This study finds that citizens of countries of the … still shape order for decades to come.

EU Forum

Obviously doesn’t solve anti-Americanism

Perm do both

Doesn’t solve US leverage with the SCAF – that’s Esposito

The perm is key

Ash 5/18/11

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/18/obama-define-great-euro-atlantic-project

 Timothy Garton Ash is a historian, political writer and Guardian columnist

 From what I can gather, the two speeches … since the second world war.

Links to politics

Reuters 11

Reuters, 9/21/11, Obama seeks to ease doubts on global leadership, mobile.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE78K39V20110921

Foreign policy has slipped down … behind" approach undermines U.S. global prestige.

Deference to Europeans in the Middle East tanks our credibility—ensures regional instability

Washington Times 9/12/11

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/sep/12/fraying-mideast-peace/

 President Obama’s Mideast policy … from behind.” Mideast chaos is the rotten fruit of this weak practice. 

EU burden sharing on the Arab spring collapses cooperation

Erlanger, 9/21

Stevene Erlanger, Paris bureau chief for the New York Times, 9/21/11, What the War in Libya Tells Europe, www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/09/21/what-war-in-libya-tells-europe/57ij

But less happily, he said, "if 'leading … elsewhere for reliable defense partners."

To solve burden sharing, Europe would have to boost their defense budgets and update military capabilities…that isn’t happening—US leadership is irreplaceable and not dependent on European cooperation

Boot 11

Max Boot, CFR Senior Fellow, 6/10/11, U.S. and NATO: If We Don’t Shoulder the Burden, Nobody Will, www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/06/10/u-s-and-nato-if-we-dont-shoulder-the-burden-nobody-will/

Bob Gates is leaving the Defense … not be fair but neither is life.

US stance on reform makes or breaks Al-Qaeda

Zarate and Gordon summer 11

 Juan C. Zarate is a Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism (2005— 2009). He can be reached at jzarate@csis.org. David A. Gordon is the Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project. He can be reached at dgordon@csis.org. Both are working on a year-long CSIS study on the future of al-Qaeda and its associated movements 

 Copyright # 2011 Center for Strategic and International Studies

The Washington Quarterly • 34:3 pp. 103122

DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2011.588305

If inadequate reform leads to …upport the organic movements in the region.

Nuclear terror inevitable now

Us Russia Joint Threat Assessment May 11

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Joint-Threat-Assessment%20ENG%2027%20May%202011.pdf

 ABOUT THE U.S.-RUSSIA JOINT THREAT ASSESSMENT ON NUCLEAR TERRORISM The U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism is a collaborative project of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and the U.S.A. and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences led by Rolf Mowatt-Larssen and Pavel Zolotarev. Authors: • Matthew Bunn. Associate Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School and Co-Principal Investigator of Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. • Colonel Yuri Morozov (retired Russian Armed Forces). Professor of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences and senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, chief of department at the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, 1995–2000. • Rolf Mowatt-Larssen. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence at the U.S. Department of Energy, 2005–2008. • Simon Saradzhyan. Fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Moscow-based defense and security expert and writer, 1993–2008. • William Tobey. Senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and director of the U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism, deputy administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, 2006–2009. • Colonel General Viktor I. Yesin (retired Russian Armed Forces). Senior fellow at the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and advisor to commander of the Strategic Missile Forces of Russia, chief of staff of the Strategic Missile Forces, 1994–1996. • Major General Pavel S. Zolotarev (retired Russian Armed Forces). Deputy director of the U.S.A and Canada Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and head of the Information and Analysis Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense, 1993–1997, deputy chief of staff of the Defense Council of Russia, 1997–1998. Contributor: • Vladimir Lukov, director general of autonomous non-profit organization “Counter-Terrorism Center.”

The expert community distinguishes pathways … the first act of nuclear terrorism occurs.

Extinction

Ayson 10, Robert Ayson, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010 (“After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear … probably still meet with a devastating response.

EU coop

Tactical cooperation’s non-unique and doesn’t spillover to higher strategy 

Melia 10,  Deputy Executive Director of Freedom House, previously Director of Research at the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Foreign Service, at Georgetown University, (Thomas, "Supporting Democracy Abroad: Transatlantic Cooperation at a Crossroads," in “ Shoulder to Shoulder: Forging a Strategic U.S.–EU Partnership,”  transatlantic.sais-jhu.edu/transatlantic-topics/Articles/eu-us/forging-eu-us-partnership/us-eu_book_democracy_thomas_melia.pdf)

Emphasis in original

 Today, with the world in the midst of a global … in recent years.

Even if we cooperate, the EU won’t – too fragmented on democracy cooperation

Helgesen 11, Secretary-General of International IDEA, (Vidar, "Reinvigorating the Infrastructure for Democracy Support:Strengthening multilateral mechanisms for coordinating and implementing democracy policy –what role for the EU and US," 3-3 www.idea.int/resources/analysis/upload/2011-03-03-International-IDEA-NDI-paper-final.pdf

 Despite the new internal institutional arrangements … history and unique political system.

Europe collapse now—Italy

Brummer, 10/10

Alex Brummer, Daily Mail, 10/10/11, ALEX BRUMMER: There is a way out of eurozone meltdown...But it's going to hurt, www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2059698/Eurzone-crisis-latest-views-There-way-meltdown--going-hurt.html

For months now the markets have been … locations such as the U.S. and Asia.

EU relations irrelevant AND collapse causes revival

Bergmann 10

Max Bergmann, Center for American Progress Senior Fellow, 3/9/2010, U.S. Neglect May Be Just What the EU Needs, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=5241

Obama also remains remarkably popular … would, in turn, rekindle the alliance.

EU soft power fails

Dempsey, 9/28

Judy Dempsey, Int'l Herald Tribune Europe Senior Correspondent, 9/28/11, The Failure of Soft Power, carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=45617

Europeans have long believed soft power to be … a stellar example of the EU’s use of soft power.

Credibility garnered from transitions solves Iran expansionism

Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf

America’s interest in preventing Iran … that commitment in practice.

Goes nuclear

Herbert I. London 10, President Emeritus of Hudson Institute, “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East”, June 23, http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds

The gathering storm in the Middle East … in its veracity. That is a truly bad sign.

payroll

Decline doesn’t cause war

Morris Miller, Professor of Administration @ the University of Ottawa, ‘2K

(Interdisciplinary Science Review, v 25 n4 2000 p ingenta connect)

The question may be reformulated. Do wars … of violence to abort another).

Tax cut doesn’t solve

Bruce Bartlett 8-30, columnist of the Fiscal Times, was executive director of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress and senior policy analyst in the Reagan White House, “The Case Against a Payroll Tax Cut”, http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/the-case-against-a-payroll-tax-cut/

However, there is no evidence that …. the temporary payroll tax cut.

Other issues come first and spur fights

Beutler, 11/1

(TPM Sr. Congressional Reporter, http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/11/senate-dems-face-major-challenge-on-key-part-of-obama-jobs-bill.php)

“The President has proposed a number … we’re in for a long two months.

The aff doesn’t spend new money

Kahzbak 10/17/11

http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/506109

 Rana is a graudate of American University in Cairo, where she studied political science and mass communications and media arts.

 According to a report released by the US-based democracy advocacy NGO called The Project on Middle East Democracy, US$65 million has been earmarked from the 2012 US federal budget to support democratic development in Egypt. In the meantime, the US Department of State's financing for Egypt remained constant at US$1.3 billion.

N/U—Budget fights

MacInnis, 11/7

(Reuters Columnist, http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-apec-obama-poliitcstre7a60xm-20111106,0,3144491.story)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's efforts … election battle gathers steam.

N/U—Education Reform

Parsons, 11/8

(LA Times Political Reporter, http://articles.latimes.com/print/2011/nov/08/news/la-pn-obama-philadelphia-20111108

Obama presses Congress on education, … plans to make liberal use of his bully pulpit.

N/U-Solyndra

Hull, 11/10

(Columnist-Mercury News, http://www.mercurynews.com/bay-area-news/ci_19299486

The highly partisan battle over bankrupt … rate hovers around 9 percent.

Super-committee outweighs

Newhauser, 11/7

(Roll Call Staff, http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_54/Democrats-Wary-of-Unemployment-Loss-210055-1.html?pos=hme)

Rep. Kevin Brady, a senior … Stanton contributed to this report.

Executive action is normal means

Leo Kapakos, Examiner, 10/25, President Obama's use of executive power to battle GOP's political games overdue, www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-new-york/president-obama-s-use-of-executive-power-to-battle-disgraceful-gop-long-overdue

“We can’t wait” is the new mantra … getting lawmaker’s approval.

GOP blocks

Sullivan, 11/11

(Reuters Columnist, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/11/us-washington-summit-tax-payroll-f-idUSTRE7AA41320111111)

(Reuters) - President Barack Obama's job-,… the entitlements problem worse."

Winners win

Marshall and Prins 11, Bryan W., poli sci at Miami University, Ohio, Brandon C., poli sci at the University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3 (September) 2011

Presidents rely heavily on … political capital at home (Fordham 2002).

Obama not key---based on GOP electoral considerations

Youngman, 11/10

(Columnist-The Hill, http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/192973-white-house-thinks-obama-has-regained-upper-hand-with-gop)

One senior administration … say, ‘We just raised your taxes $1,000.’

Presidential leadership’s irrelevant

Jacobs and King 10, University of Minnesota, Nuffield College, (Lawrence and Desmond, “Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency,”  Perspectives on Politics (2010), 8: 793-802) 

 But personality is not a solid foundation for a …. Presidential sales pitches go only so far.

Plan is a win for Obama

Lane, editorial board – Washington Post, 2/15/’11

(Charles ,” Obama can reap political capital from revolt in Egypt,” The News Tribune)

If Obama reaches out effectively to the … Egypt over the rest of his term.

Consumer retrenchment non-unique and inevitable

Knowledge@Wharton 10-13, “The Great Deleveraging: Will Consumer Spending Ever Recover?”, http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/10/13/the-great-deleveraging-will-consumer-spending-ever.aspx

"People are feeling very uncertain," says … won't see that increase," Hoyt notes.

1ar – no solve cred

Europe will never be perceived as a leader

Miller, 11

Rory Miller, Director of the Middle East and Mediterranean Studies Program at King's College London, Sept/Oct 2011, Europe's Palestine Problem, Foreign Affairs, 90.5

In the face of this impasse, a … the Israelis and the Palestinians.

1ar – burden sharing fails

They don’t know what burden sharing is—the EU can’t and won’t increase defense commitments – that’s boot

CP can’t overcome two-tiered structure

Borger, 11

Julian Borger, The Guardian, 6/15/11, Nato chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen warns of 'two-tier' force, www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/15/nato-chief-warns-of-two-tier-force

Nato's secretary general has warned … may in the long run weaken our alliance."

Debt crisis

Carafano, 11

James Carafano, Heritate Defense Policy Senior Fellow, 9/29/11, Defense in an Age of Austerity, http://csis.org/files/attachments/110929_panel1_transcript.pdf

But the question is, why are … them to buy a bigger house.

1ar – signal

Adv. 1

Egypt’s on brink of sectarian devolution

Soufan Group 10/11/11

 The Soufan Group LLC (TSG) is an international strategic consultancy group that advises governments, corporations, and institutions on policy, strategy, security, and risk management; and trains law enforcement, intelligence, judicial, and security services. The group combines the technical knowledge and field experience of operatives with the skill sets of consultants and the academic rigor of policy analysts, to provide an unparalleled service with remarkable results for clients. One of the distinctive features of The Soufan Group is that its representatives are internationally respected for both their expertise and for their integrity. It is the combination of these attributes that distinguished them during their government agency and military service, and then led them to TSG. And it is these qualities that inspire the trust of governments and other clients.

http://soufangroup.com/news/details/?Article_Id=155

 It is seven months now … Christians and Muslims is likely to continue

Sectarian violence leads to Egyptian civil war and destroys global stability – only civil society solves

Umam 10/18/11

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/10/18/dealing-with-democratic-transition-egypt.html

 The writer is a lecturer in the Department of International Relations, Paramadina University, Jakarta.

Conflicts between Muslim … threat to global peace and international stability. 

Protracted sectarian violence splits Egypt – kills econ, desertification, forces intervention

Zunger 2/2/11

http://yonatanzunger.com/2011/02/02/the-potentially-bad-news-from-egypt/

 Professionally, I’m a principal engineer at Google and Chief Architect for Social. My primary responsibility is the overarching technical design of Google’s social products, especially the Google+ Project. I’ve been at Google since 2003, during which time I’ve worked on artificial intelligence (in the search quality / ranking team), search infrastructure (as head of the ultra-high capacity search group), and planet-scale distributed storage.  Before that, I was at Stanford’s Institute for Theoretical Physics, where I worked on using unconventional geometries and topologies (noncommutative, twistor, etc) to study the low-level structure of spacetime. My physics papers are available via the arXiv.  During my undergraduate and graduate careers, I became very interested in history — first in Late Antiquity and then in the early Middle Ages. My core interest was initially in social history and the study of daily life in these periods, and gradually mixed with my existing interest in religion to an especial interest in the religious history of these periods. This led to extensive coursework and research, and almost led to my doing a graduate minor. Lately I’ve been moving my eye backwards a bit and starting to study the emergence of monotheism in the Late Bronze Age Middle East.  I come from a large Jewish, Israeli family. On the religious side, it varies from the ultra-Orthodox (In the rabbi business for over 2,500 years) to ultra-secular (Karl Marx is my Nth cousin), and watching this discourse play out left me deeply interested in all the related matters, from individual faith (and how it differs for people) to the social meaning of religion. On the political side, you can’t grow up with wars breaking out at the drop of a hat and not become a news junkie. You just can’t. So I read it compulsively. And analyze it compulsively, looking for signals of what’s really going on and what’s about to happen.

 If short-term but intense … worse problems in the long term.

Desert expansion = extinction, outweighs war

Kepner 6

 Desertification in the Mediterranean region: a security issue

William G. Kepner is an Envi- ronmental Contaminant spe- cialist for the Fish and Wildlife

 Among the more intractable … of global environmental change.

Egyptian failed state = massive refugee floods and terrorist safe haven in Egypt

Brown 10/24/11

http://www.ecopts.com/?p=1138

 Stephen Brown is a contributing editor at Frontpagemag.com. He has a graduate degree in Russian and Eastern European history

If a collapse does occur in …, largest human tragedy.

Biggest internal link to EU cohesion

Economist 4/11/11

http://www.economist.com/blogs/charlemagne/2011/04/north_african_migration

 FOR THE past year excessive … another of Europe's great integration projects.  

Causes global depression and runaway warming

Strahan 10/13/11

http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=1300

 David Strahan is an award-winning investigative journalist and documentary film-maker who specializes business and energy. For a decade he reported and produced extensively for the BBC’s Money Programme and Horizon strands. He is also the author of The Last Oil Shock: A Survival Guide to the Imminent Extinction of Petroleum Man, published by John Murray, and continues to write, broadcast and consult on energy. He is a trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, fellow of the RSA, and an honorary researcher at the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

 The climate always takes a … to uncontrollable global warming.  

Adv. 2

Asian wars go nuclear

Landy, National Security Expert @ Knight Ridder, 3/10/’2K

(Jonathan, Knight Ridder, lexis)

Few if any experts think China … according to the Commerce Department.

Most likely escalation scenario

Dibb, Professor of Security Studies @ the Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, ‘1

(Paul, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0JIW/is_1_54/ai_75762211)

The areas of maximum … when confronted with major crises.

Crises in Asia escalate – geography

Cimbala, 2008

Stephen Cimbala, Professor of Political Science at Penn State University, March 2008, “Anticipatory Attacks: Nuclear Crisis Stability in Future Asia,” Comparative Strategy, 27:2, informaworld

The spread of nuclear weapons … of major interstate warfare.

Low threshold – hot spots

Richardson, 2006

Corey Richardson, East Asia security issues and presidential management fellow with the US DOD, 9-9-2006, “South Korea must choose sides,” Asia Times, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/HI09Dg02.html

While the details of … some crucial point in the future.

Outweighs – most people

May 1997

Michael May, Engineering-Economic Systems at Stanford, Washington Quarterly, Summer 1997.

The unpalatable facts, …e civilized world devastated.

US – India relations are high but underutilized – the aff is key to promote an active partnership

Daniel Twining and, Senior Fellow for Asia at the German Marshall Fund, Richard Fontaine 11, Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, “The Ties that Bind? U.S.—Indian Values-based Cooperation”, The Washington Quarterly 34:2 pp. 193-205 Spring 2011

In his November 2010 speech … agenda for that cooperation.

Cooperation on civil society spills over

Richard L. Armitage et al 10, Deputy Secretary of State from March 2001 to February 2005, “Natural Allies”, October, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Natural%20Allies_ArmitageBurnsFontaine.pdf

Twelve years ago, then-… reforms in recipient countries.

Strong relations solve inevitable Asian war

Richard L. Armitage et al 10, Deputy Secretary of State from March 2001 to February 2005, “Natural Allies”, October, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Natural%20Allies_ArmitageBurnsFontaine.pdf

The U.S. relationship with … regional and global partnership.

Only the plan solves sectarian violence in Egypt---civil society support key

Chaulia, 10/19

(Professor and Vice Dean at the Jindal School of International Affairs in Sonipat, India, and the first ever B Raman Fellow for Geopolitical Analysis at the Takshashila,  Institution.http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/MJ19Df01.html

The running street battles in … Bin Laden with Gandhi in Tahrir Square.

solvency

No impact to stigma

Haas, 9/8

(9/8, Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the American Foreign Policy Council, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/09/08/v-print/123482/the-stakes-are-far-too-high-for.html)

America cannot dictate the … U.S. help and later thanked Washington for its efforts.

Liberal buy-in solves crackdowns

McIrney, 9/28

(Exec Director-POMED, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/28/scaf_s_assault_on_egypt_s_civil_society)

Civil society is an essential … to unequivocally stand up for their rights.

No impact

Amira Maaty 11, program officer on the MENA team of the NED, “Civil society a force in Egypt’s democratization”, April 29, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/04/civil-society-a-force-in-egypts-democratization/

In the run- up to Egypt’s … groups based outside the capital.

cred

Saying Israel comes first is shoddy reporting and stalls reform

Gray 8/15/11

http://www.democracystandard.com/israel/middle-east-turmoil-is-not-the-same-old-story/

 Matthew Gray is a former teacher and freelance writer currently living in Bristol, England.  He is currently pursuing his MA in Conflict Resolution in Divided Societies at King’s College, London.  He has a PGCE in Religious Studies and Ethics from the University of Bristol and a BA in Philosophy from the University of Maryland, College Park.

 Yet the article proceeds to … that is still sweeping through the Middle East.

spending

The aff doesn’t spend new money

Kahzbak 10/17/11

http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/506109

 Rana is a graudate of American University in Cairo, where she studied political science and mass communications and media arts.

 According to a report released by the US-based democracy advocacy NGO called The Project on Middle East Democracy, US$65 million has been earmarked from the 2012 US federal budget to support democratic development in Egypt. In the meantime, the US Department of State's financing for Egypt remained constant at US$1.3 billion.

Budget cuts will fail

Carter, former deputy assistant secretary of the Treasury, 8/18/’11

(James, “Dealing with the Budget Numbers,” http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/274950/dealing-budget-numbers-james-carter#)

Third, the history of budget … after year three of the deal — that is, after 2014.

Supercommittee swamps the link

Kaminski, 11

Jane Kaminski, US Global Leadership Coalition, 8/22/11, A Comprehensive National Security Strategy , www.usglc.org/2011/08/22/a-comprehensive-national-security-strategy/

As the debate heats up over the … for resources with other agencies.

No impact to downgrade – U.S. still least risky option for investors

Reich. Professor of Public Policy at UC-Berkeley and former Secretary of Labor, 9/26/2011

[Robert, “Why this is exactly the time to rebuild America’s infrastructure,” lexis]

Seems like only yesterday …, China's growth is slowing.

Decline doesn’t cause war

Morris Miller, Professor of Administration @ the University of Ottawa, ‘2K

(Interdisciplinary Science Review, v 25 n4 2000 p ingenta connect)

The question may be … form of violence to abort another).

Weak credibility eviscerates US power projection

Cohen, 11

Craig Cohen, vice president for Research and Programs at CSIS and editor of this volume, serves as principal adviser to CSIS president, June 2011, “Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of U.S. Power,” http://csis.org/files/publication/110613_Cohen_CapacityResolve_Web.pdf

This study finds that citizens of … order for decades to come.

Nuclear war

Barnett, Professor, Warfare Analysis and Research Dept – U.S. Naval War College, 3/7/’11

(Thomas, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads)

Events in Libya are a further … in battle deaths from state-based conflicts.

china relations da

Broader strategic cooperation outweighs

Jeffrey A. Bader 11, visiting scholar at the China Center at Brookings, “U.S.-China Senior Dialogue: Maintaining the Balance”, May 6, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0506_strategic_economic_dialogue_bader.aspx

The S&ED comes at a …will be on the agenda of the S&ED.

Relations are resilient, but the cooperation that their impacts assume is impossible

Harry Harding 11, founding dean of the School of Leadership and Public Policy at the University of Virginia, “Are China and the U.S. on a collision course?”, June 14, http://thinkingaboutasia.blogspot.com/2011/06/are-china-and-us-on-collision-course.html

In my judgment, it is … unification through the use of force.

Credibility turns and outweighs the internal link

Alterman, 11

Jon Alterman, CSIS Middle East Senior Fellow, May 2011, The Middle East Turns East, csis.org/files/publication/0511_MENC.pdf

An increasing U.S. … strong position in the Middle East.

Independently prevents a massive arms race

Kemp 10

Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center, served in the White House under Ronald Reagan, special assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs on the National Security Council Staff, Former Director, Middle East Arms Control Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2010, The East Moves West: India, China, and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, p. 233-5

A third scenario, Asian Balance of …—particularly nuclear terrorism.

Goes nuclear

Cirincione 2k (Joseph, director of the Non-Proliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Foreign Policy, “The Asian Nuclear Reaction Chain,” 3/22/00, lexis)

The blocks would fall quickest and … first combat use of a nuclear weapon since 1945.

Currency and human rights

Lakshman, 11/12

(Columnist-The Hindu, http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article2621976.ece)

This week even the stunning …. or pirate foreign intellectual property.”

ptx

No risk of nuclear terror

Mueller 10 (John, professor of political science at Ohio State, Calming Our Nuclear Jitters, Issues in Science and Technology, Winter, http://www.issues.org/26.2/mueller.html)

Politicians of all stripes …or one in three billion per attempt.

Obama vetoes-additional JSF funding, START restrictions and detainee treatment

FDL 11

FiredogLake Newsdesk, 5-25

http://news.firedoglake.com/2011/05/24/obama-administration-threatens-veto-of-defense-bill-over-redefinition-of-aumf/

 President Obama has …just excerpt the SAP on this point:

Executive action is normal means

Leo Kapakos, Examiner, 10/25, President Obama's use of executive power to battle GOP's political games overdue, www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-new-york/president-obama-s-use-of-executive-power-to-battle-disgraceful-gop-long-overdue

“We can’t wait” is the new … without getting lawmaker’s approval.

If it’s stalled the NDAA would just be stripped of the controversial measures-also, debate only comes up in December

Federal Times 10-6-11

http://www.federaltimes.com/article/20111006/DEPARTMENTS01/110060302/1015/CONGRESS02

 "It seems like the Senate is unable …, and perhaps not until next year.

Super-committee outweighs

Newhauser, 11/7

(Roll Call Staff, http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_54/Democrats-Wary-of-Unemployment-Loss-210055-1.html?pos=hme)

Rep. Kevin Brady, a … contributed to this report.

Reid’s blocking a vote and it’s just traditional partisanship-no PC needed

FDL 10-10-11

Firedog Lake

http://news.firedoglake.com/2011/10/10/house-armed-services-chair-mckeon-ill-block-defense-authorization-bill-if-military-chaplains-can-perform-same-sex-marriages/

 Then there is the detainee issue. … be used for political clubbing.

Presidential leadership’s irrelevant

Jacobs and King 10, University of Minnesota, Nuffield College, (Lawrence and Desmond, “Varieties of Obamaism: Structure, Agency, and the Obama Presidency,”  Perspectives on Politics (2010), 8: 793-802) 

 But personality is not a solid …. Presidential sales pitches go only so far.

Winners win

Marshall and Prins 11, Bryan W., poli sci at Miami University, Ohio, Brandon C., poli sci at the University of Tennessee & Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, “Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S. Presidential Decisions to Use Force”, Presidential Studies Quarterly 41, no. 3 (September) 2011

Presidents rely heavily on … political capital at home (Fordham 2002).

EU

Doesn’t solve US leverage with the SCAF – the perm is key

Ash 5/18/11

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/18/obama-define-great-euro-atlantic-project

 Timothy Garton Ash is a historian, political writer and Guardian columnist

 From what I can gather, the … since the second world war.

Europe collapse now—Italy

Brummer, 10/10

Alex Brummer, Daily Mail, 10/10/11, ALEX BRUMMER: There is a way out of eurozone meltdown...But it's going to hurt, www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2059698/Eurzone-crisis-latest-views-There-way-meltdown--going-hurt.html

For months now the markets … as the U.S. and Asia.

Europe can’t solve global problems

Bacevich, 10

Andrew, Bacevich, Boston University IR and History Professor, March/April 2010, Let Europe Be Europe,"http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/22/let_europe_be_europe?page=full, 2/28]

Europe, however, is another … It keeps them out of mischief.

US stance on reform makes or breaks Al-Qaeda

Zarate and Gordon summer 11

 Juan C. Zarate is a Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism (2005— 2009). He can be reached at jzarate@csis.org. David A. Gordon is the Program Manager and a Research Assistant with the CSIS Transnational Threats Project. He can be reached at dgordon@csis.org. Both are working on a year-long CSIS study on the future of al-Qaeda and its associated movements 

 Copyright # 2011 Center for Strategic and International Studies

The Washington Quarterly • 34:3 pp. 103122

DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2011.588305

If inadequate reform leads to … the organic movements in the region.

k

The role of the ballot is to simulate enactment of the plan. That’s the most productive way to engage Mid East politics

Heydemann, director – Program on Philanthropy and Nonprofit Sector @ Social Science Research Council, frmr Prof Poli Sci – Columbia, ‘2

(Steve, “Defending the Discipline,” Journal of Democracy Vol. 13, No. 3, Muse)

Though Kramer's book is … in the Middle East during the course of the 1990s.

Humans are uniquely suited to innovate complexity

Bookchin, philosophy – Institute for Social Ecology, ‘95

(Murray, http://lamiae.meccahosting.com/~a0004f7f/StudiesInAnti-Capitalism/Documents_TWO_files/SocialAnarchismOrLifestyleAnarchism.pdf)

What is of crucial … and change the world.

That’s the only way to combat entropy – turns their ethics

Coon 1/2/11

My name is Carleton Coon. I am the author of these essays, except as otherwise noted, and the owner/manager of this website. I am a retired US diplomat living in Washington Virginia, and in Washington DC. I was born in 1927, graduated from Harvard in 1949 (after serving briefly in the US Army at the end of World War II), and joined the US Foreign Service that same year. 37 years of government service saw me posted in a variety of countries stretching from Morocco to Nepal. From 1981-1984 I was US Ambassador to Nepal. I retired in 1985. After retirement I rediscovered some old interests that I had had little time to pursue during my diplomatic career. Music was one, mostly western classical but also non-western. With the help of rapidly evolving computer programs I composed a number of works, mostly chamber and piano. Meanwhile I renewed an old interest in human evolution, which I had inherited from my anthropologist father, and traveled widely in parts of the world I had not previously visited. I wrote essays on the human condition and several books. My interests increasingly focused on humanism and I became involved with the American Humanist Association. In 2004 I was elected to the AHA Board and shortly afterwards became AHA’s Vice President. I served as VP for five years, then retired (for the second time) and turned to family, writing, and further reflection on the human condition.

http://www.progressivehumanism.com/progressive-humanism/entropy-and-life/

It is based on a simple proposition: … an ethical basis for his life.

And, strategic anthropomorphism – all creatures identify with similar beings – it’s inevitable, but we can make decisions for the benefit of other beings

Werner Scholtz 5, Associate Professor in Law – North-West University, “animal culling: a sustainable approach or anthropocentric atrocity?: issues of biodiversity and custodial sovereignty”, MqJICEL (2005) Vol 2

The CBD recognizes that the …the linkage between man and environment.

And the permutation’s pragmatic struggle for animal rights is the only feasible option – the alt devolves into paradigm wars

David Favre, Professor of Law at MSU, 4 10 Animal L. 87

This division stems from divergent visions …. if they remain legal property. 12

Solves their thought experiment

Tarik Kochi & Noam Ordan 8, Queen’s University & Bar Ilan University, An Argument for the Global Suicide of Humanity, Borderlands VOLUME 7 NUMBER 3

While we are not interested in … we try to forget, suppress or repress it.

Their ethics collapses down to the lowest common denominator – causes genocide

David R. Schmahmann and Lori J. Polacheck, a partner in the firm of Nutter, McLennan & Fish, Boston College Environmental Affairs Law Review, SPRING, 95

In the end, however, it is the aggregate of these … being and the Colorado beetle. 26

spending

Recent empirics go neg

Barnett, senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC, contributing editor/online columnist for Esquire, 8/25/’9

(Thomas P.M, “The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis,” Aprodex, Asset Protection Index, http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules--security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx)

When the global financial …. beyond advising and training local forces.

No chance of riders

Taylor, 11/8

(AP Political Reporter, http://articles.boston.com/2011-11-08/news/30373960_1_deficit-cuts-obama-and-congressional-republicans-automatic-cuts/2)

Republicans were largely … Harkin, D-Iowa, referring to the GOP policy riders.

International affairs will be the first thing to go

Cornwell, 9/7

Susan Cornwell, Reuters, 9/7/11, Obama's "smart power" plan risks death of 1,000 cuts, www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/07/us-usa-budget-power-idUSTRE78613G20110907

President Barack Obama's pledge to … a devastating impact on the work that we do."

Super committee triggers the link—1.5 trillion is a bit more than the plan

Cornwell, 9/7

Susan Cornwell, Reuters, 9/7/11, Obama's "smart power" plan risks death of 1,000 cuts, www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/07/us-usa-budget-power-idUSTRE78613G20110907

The deficit-cutting deal … Qorvis Communications.

Empirically denied – interest rates falling since S&P

Fallow, New Zealand Herald, 10/1/2011

[Brian, “It is up to us to prove them wrong,” lexis]

The downgrading of the … the United States, US interest rates have fallen.

ptx

Their authors are biased

BBC 8 Monitoring South Asia, 2/29/l/n

The grossly exaggerated … momentum of the threat of "terrorism."

The plan—not bipart—determines case solvency

Gelb 10/25

Leslie H. Gelb, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, a former senior official in the State and Defense Departments,10/25/11, We Bow to the God Bipartisanship, nationalinterest.org/print/article/we-bow-the-god-bipartisanship-6048

Contrary to Gates’s Holy Grail …, which in the end is good politics as well.

Obama is heavily involved in Super Committee now

Calmes, 11/10

(NYT Columnist, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/10/us/politics/deficit-reduction-panel-at-impasse-but-obama-sees-no-reason-to-step-in.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print)

“The president could greatly … Congressional process.”

Obama will veto

Defense Communities 10-12-11

http://www.defensecommunities.org/headlines/precarious-path-ahead-for-defense-authorization-bill/

  On the Senate side, Majority … in the House-passed version, H.R. 154

8% chance of the internal link

Matthew N Beckmann and Vimal Kumar 11, Associate Professor of Political Science at UC Irvine, econ prof at the Indian Institute of Tech, “Opportunism in Polarization”, Presidential Studies Quarterly; Sep 2011; 41, 3

The final important piece in our …, which often will not matter, but can in close cases.

Journalists love constructing ‘pc key’ narratives – prefer academics

Dickinson 9 professor of political science at Middlebury College (Matthew, “Sotomayor, Obama and Presidential Power,”  May 26, 2009 Presidential Power http://blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/2009/05/26/sotamayor-obama-and-presidential-power/]

What is of more interest to me, however, is … that cannot be measured through legislative boxscores.

t

We meet – no funding is going to NGO’s

Kausch, 10

[Kristina, researcher at FRIDE, “ Assessing Democracy Assistance: Egypt,” Project Report Assessing Democracy Assistance http://www.fride.org/publication/781/egypt]

The United States are providing ... the use of US economic aid to Egypt.

Counter-interp – substantially means 7.5% from the baseline

Wolff 11

[Jonas, senior research fellow at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF), Germany, and chairman of PRIF’s Research Council, The Carnegie Papers, “Challenges to Democracy Promotion the case of Bolivia,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/democracy_bolivia.pdf]

 In this context, the Congressional … orientation—of democracy aid in U.S. assistance overall. 4

They overlimit – we’re the biggest Egypt aff

Campbell 10

Leslie Campbell is senior associate and regional director for the Middle East and north Africa at the National Democratic Institute in the United States.

http://www.ndi.org/files/Party_Building_MENA_Campbell.pdf

Democracy assistance in Egypt, most of it … Egyptian politics in the long term.

And they’re arbitrary – substantially is subjective

Hopkins 9

Starting and Managing a Nonprofit Organization: A Legal Guide, p. google books

 Bruce R. Hopkins

Senior Partner

Polsinelli Shughart PC

700 West 47th Street, Suite 1000

Kansas City, Missouri

(Cass, Clay, Jackson & Platte Cos.)

The* true* measure of substantiality remains elusive. … are too vague and thereby tend to encourage subjective and selective enforcement."

scaf

Liberal buy-in solves crackdowns

McIrney, 9/28

(Exec Director-POMED, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/28/scaf_s_assault_on_egypt_s_civil_society)

Civil society is an essential component of any … unequivocally stand up for their rights.

No impact

Amira Maaty 11, program officer on the MENA team of the NED, “Civil society a force in Egypt’s democratization”, April 29, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2011/04/civil-society-a-force-in-egypts-democratization/

In the run- up to Egypt’s January 25 revolution, the state was … as well as groups based outside the capital.

civil society bad

No offense—Egyptian civil society is suffocating now

Robert Danin, CFR, 10/27/11, Egypt’s Troubling Road to the Ballot Box, blogs.cfr.org/danin/2011/10/27/egypts-troubling-road-to-the-ballot-box/

NGOs in Egypt are facing what POMED’s Stephen … shutdown or physical assault against its offices or staff.

NGO assistance builds civil society—independent of democratization

Fagan, 11

Adam Fagan, School of Politics and International Relations, Queen Mary, June 2011, EU assistance for civil society in Kosovo: a step too far for democracy promotion?, Democratization, Volume 18, Issue 3

The problem for many commentators is precisely this … it may ultimately be laying the foundations for civic participation and the legitimation of NGOs in the future.23

No impact to local ownership args

Fowler 11

Alan Fowler, affiliate professor at the Institute of Social Studies, honorary research professor at the University of KwZulu Natal, 8/26/11, BEYOND CIVIL SOCIETY: CIVIC DRIVEN CHANGE AND GOVERNANCE IN AFRICA1, www.istr.org/networks/africa/PDF/PaperFowler.pdf

As role models, in aid recipient countries western … contemporary socio-political processes of change within, between and above nation states.

cred

Saying Israel comes first is shoddy reporting and stalls reform

Gray 8/15/11

http://www.democracystandard.com/israel/middle-east-turmoil-is-not-the-same-old-story/

 Matthew Gray is a former teacher and freelance writer currently living in Bristol, England.  He is currently pursuing his MA in Conflict Resolution in Divided Societies at King’s College, London.  He has a PGCE in Religious Studies and Ethics from the University of Bristol and a BA in Philosophy from the University of Maryland, College Park.

 Yet the article proceeds to argue that the dictators … are fighting against the democratic wave that is still sweeping through the Middle East.

No impact to stigma

Haas, 9/8

(9/8, Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy at the American Foreign Policy Council, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/09/08/v-print/123482/the-stakes-are-far-too-high-for.html)

America cannot dictate the future of this economically … U.S. help and later thanked Washington for its efforts.

private cp

Privatized aid fails and undermines US credibility

Dobransky, 11

(Adjunct Professor-Poli Sci-Cleveland State University, http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2011/0104/comm/dobransky_coming.html)

The argument against privatized foreign aid is … establishment.  Just witness the government’s experience with the contractor Blackwater (now, Xe).

The CP causes infighting between NGO’s

Rana Lehr-Lehnardt 5, assistant law prof at UMKC, “NGO Legitimacy: Reassessing Democracy, Accountability and Transparency”, 4-16, http://scholarship.law.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1020&context=lps_clacp&sei-redir=1#search=%22government%20aid%20NGOs%20transparency%22

Private funding is also problematic. One scholar and … of other more pressing issues.

Obama key to signal

Lina Khatib 11, Program Manager at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford University, “The Arab Spring Casts Obama as United States Public Diplomacy Messenger”, August 25, http://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/index.php/newswire/cpdblog_detail/the_arab_spring_casts_obama_as_united_states_public_diplomacy_messenger/

Why is it that Obama has become the … be condemned to falling on deaf ears in the Arab world.

EU forum

Doesn’t solve US leverage with the SCAF – that’s Esposito

The perm is key

Ash 5/18/11

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/18/obama-define-great-euro-atlantic-project

 Timothy Garton Ash is a historian, political writer and Guardian columnist

 From what I can gather, the two speeches … transatlantic partnership since the second world war.

Links to politics

Reuters 11

Reuters, 9/21/11, Obama seeks to ease doubts on global leadership, mobile.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE78K39V20110921

Foreign policy has slipped down his policy list… say his "leading from behind" approach undermines U.S. global prestige.

EU burden sharing on the Arab spring collapses cooperation

Erlanger, 9/21

Stevene Erlanger, Paris bureau chief for the New York Times, 9/21/11, What the War in Libya Tells Europe, www.carnegieendowment.org/2011/09/21/what-war-in-libya-tells-europe/57ij

But less happily, he said, "if 'leading from behind' … look elsewhere for reliable defense partners."

Tactical cooperation’s non-unique and doesn’t spillover to higher strategy 

Melia 10,  Deputy Executive Director of Freedom House, previously Director of Research at the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, and Adjunct Professor in the School of Foreign Service, at Georgetown University, (Thomas, "Supporting Democracy Abroad: Transatlantic Cooperation at a Crossroads," in “ Shoulder to Shoulder: Forging a Strategic U.S.–EU Partnership,”  transatlantic.sais-jhu.edu/transatlantic-topics/Articles/eu-us/forging-eu-us-partnership/us-eu_book_democracy_thomas_melia.pdf)

Emphasis in original

 Today, with the world in the midst of a global political recession – with … contributed to democratic advancement in recent years.

Europe can’t solve global problems

Bacevich, 10

Andrew, Bacevich, Boston University IR and History Professor, March/April 2010, Let Europe Be Europe,"http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/22/let_europe_be_europe?page=full, 2/28]

Europe, however, is another matter. By the dawn of this century, … project? It keeps them out of mischief.

EU relations irrelevant AND collapse causes revival

Bergmann 10

Max Bergmann, Center for American Progress Senior Fellow, 3/9/2010, U.S. Neglect May Be Just What the EU Needs, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=5241

Obama also remains remarkably popular … involved Europe would, in turn, rekindle the alliance.

The CP’s forum would be a massive distraction—prevents crisis management on the eurocrisis

Lehne, 9/28

Stefan Lehne, formerly the political director of the Austrian Ministry for European and International Affairs. From 2002 to 2008 he served as the director of the Council of the European Union’s Directorate General for External and Politico-Military Affairs where he was in charge of the Balkans, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 9/27/11, Can Lisbon’s Potential be Realized?, carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=45608

Imagine for a moment that Washington … costs money. Very little money means very little foreign policy.

Turns the net-benefit—need to fix the Eurozone crisis now—that determines the relationship and burden sharing, not the CP

Stokes, 10/20

Bruce Stokes, senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, 10/20/11, An unreliable partner for the US?, www.europeanvoice.com/article/imported/an-unreliable-partner-for-the-us-/72342.aspx

Failure to solve the eurozone crisis will … 23 October and in the weeks that follow.

Asia trip

No risk of China War – mutual cooperation

Friedberg 2005, Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs and Director of Policy Planning in the Office of the Vice President, International Security, Vol. 30, No. 2 (Fall 2005), pp. 7–45

Fortunately, a number of the factors to which the … relations, even if they were not accompanied immediately by more profound and far-reaching domestic political reforms.

NGO’s reps and diplomats overseas now

POMED 10-27, “U.S. Entrepreneurship Delegation Visits Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco”, http://pomed.org/blog/2011/10/u-s-entrepreneurship-delegation-visits-tunisia-algeria-morocco.html/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+POMED_blog+%28Project+on+Middle+East+Democracy+Blog%29

U.S. State Department Special …; and networking opportunities.

Super-committee outweighs

Newhauser, 11/7

(Roll Call Staff, http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_54/Democrats-Wary-of-Unemployment-Loss-210055-1.html?pos=hme)

Rep. Kevin Brady, a senior member of the … Stanton contributed to this report.

N/U—Veteran’s benefits

Nakamura, 11/7

(WP Columnist, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/44/post/obama-to-announce-new-veteran-jobs-initiative-to-keep-pressure-on-congress/2011/11/07/gIQAsfHUvM_blog.html)

President Obama kept the pressure on … funding for modernizing roads and bridges.

Middle East diplomatic focus inevitable

Gvosdev, 10/28

Nikolas K. Gvosdev, former editor of the National Interest, faculty of the U.S. Naval War College, 10/28/11, The Realist Prism: U.S. Must Put Words Into Action in Asia-Pacific, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/10490/the-realist-prism-u-s-must-put-words-into-action-in-asia-pacific

Although it is welcome to see such a clear … budget and other military accounts are threatened.”

Budget fights kill Asia focus

Pollack, 11/9

senior fellow Foreign Policy at Brookings,  “Obama’s Pacific Trip: What Will Be the President’s Message?” Brookings, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/1109_apec_pollack.aspx

However, uncertainty pervades the president’s visit, … the United States seeks to convey, and that nearly all in the region want to see.

boehner

Zero risk

Ian Fletcher 8-29, Senior Economist of the Coalition for a Prosperous America, “Avoid Trade War? We're Already In One!”, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ian-fletcher/avoid-trade-war-were-alre_b_939967.html

The curious thing about the concept of … no different if we join the party.

Tit-for-tat disputes won’t escalate

Feigenbaum 10 (Evan A., Adjunct senior fellow for Asia Council on Foreign Relations Head of the Asia practice group at the Eurasia Group, 10/19, “Reluctant Warriors,” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/10/19/reluctant_warriors)

But U.S.-China relations can probably weather a … doing a lot more of it with one another.

Link non-unique—Boehner came out in support of tax increases

AP, 11/4/11, John Boehner: Debt Deal Will Include New Tax Revenues , www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/04/john-boehner-tax-revenues_n_1075957.html

House Speaker John Boehner said Thursday …. that raising taxes is not good for our economy."

Triggers the disad

Jake Sherman, Politico, 11/8/11, Odds stack up against debt panel, dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=7621CBEB-5C83-4919-BF0E-EB161BEBEC4F

Yet after that session, rank-and-…y many GOP lawmakers.

Executive action is normal means

Leo Kapakos, Examiner, 10/25, President Obama's use of executive power to battle GOP's political games overdue, www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-new-york/president-obama-s-use-of-executive-power-to-battle-disgraceful-gop-long-overdue

“We can’t wait” is the new mantra unveiled by the … woes of millions of American families without getting lawmaker’s approval.

Club for Growth keeps GOP in line

Hughes, 11-10

“ US Rep Brooks Challenges House Speaker On China Currency Policy,”http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111110-715673.html

So far, Boehner has had the upper hand… to quell any dissent among the rank and file.

The aff doesn’t spend new money

Kahzbak 10/17/11

http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/506109

 Rana is a graudate of American University in Cairo, where she studied political science and mass communications and media arts.

 According to a report released by the … Egypt remained constant at US$1.3 billion.

Obama will veto

Lengell, 10/12

(Sean, Washington Times, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/oct/12/boehner-still-defiant-china-currency-bill/)

But the bill presents a thorny problem for the … passes both chambers as written.

US-China trade disputes inevitable

ICTSD, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, 10/26/11, Disputes Roundup: China in the Spotlight over Zeroing, Internet Censorship, ictsd.org/i/news/bridgesweekly/116989/

This past week has seen the US and …. trade impact of periodically shutting down US business’ websites in China.

The aff solves Iran expansion

Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf

America’s interest in preventing Iran … aspirations of publics in the Arab world and Iran, and demonstrate that commitment in practice.

Extinction

Herbert I. London 10, President Emeritus of Hudson Institute, “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East”, June 23, http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds

The gathering storm in the Middle East is … in its veracity. That is a truly bad sign.

tradeoff

Budget re-allocation link is not unique

Lander, 11/10

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/10/us/politics/obama-orders-savings-of-4-billion-for-use-elsewhere.html?pagewanted=print

Obama Cuts $4 Billion, Then Uses It Elsewhere

By MARK LANDLER

WASHINGTON — Cutting wasteful government … contends are more worthwhile.

budget pounds trip

Swamps the link

Graham and Gvosdev 11 (What Should be the Next Phase in U.S.-Russia Relations? Conference Speech U.S. Global Engagement Program Thomas E. Graham, Nikolas K. Gvosdev June 3, 2011 http://www.carnegiecouncil.org/resources/transcripts/0424.html)

The problem, I think, … able to devote to the U.S.-Russia relationship is going to go down.

Their author

Bower (NU’s author), 10/27

Ernest Bower, CSIS Southeast Asia Program Director, 10/27/11, Why November Matters for Obama, the-diplomat.com/2011/10/27/why-november-matters-for-obama/

Politically, this is a lot of travel to … a political news cycle.

Eating his focus

MacInnis, 11/7

(Reuters Columnist, http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-apec-obama-poliitcstre7a60xm-20111106,0,3144491.story)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's … battle gathers steam.

Massive budget fights coming this week – Obama gets involved over riders

Khimm, 11/3

“The White House’s warning shot to the GOP on the budget,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/the-white-houses-warning-shot-to-the-gop-on-the-budget/2011/11/03/gIQA3WZxiM_blog.html

Lately, most of the focus on the Hill has centered … this very high-risk game.”

1ar super committee pounder

Obama is heavily involved

Calmes, 11/10

(NYT Columnist, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/10/us/politics/deficit-reduction-panel-at-impasse-but-obama-sees-no-reason-to-step-in.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print)

“The president could greatly enhance the chances of … assistance,” he added. “But by design this is a Congressional process.”

They’re taking all his capital

Leonard, 10/24

(Political & Economic Columnist-Salon, http://www.salon.com/2011/10/24/can_obama_fix_geithners_housing_bust/singleton/)

Against this context, the refrain “We can’t wait… and helped somebody.

It’s the dominant issue in Washington

MacInnis, 11/7

(Reuters Columnist, http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-apec-obama-poliitcstre7a60xm-20111106,0,3144491.story)

Whether or not Obama sticks to his trip itinerary, … to the president," Green said.

Obama involved now

MacInnis, 11/7

(Reuters Columnist, http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/sns-rt-us-apec-obama-poliitcstre7a60xm-20111106,0,3144491.story)

White House officials are … from budgets over the next decade.

at: obama not involved

Alt causes to dip focus--Uzbekistan

DC Velocity, 10/25/11, U.S., Uzbek diplomatic talks focus on Afghan supply routes, www.dcvelocity.com/articles/20111025diplomatic_talks_on_afghan_supply_routes/

When you think of topics … Distribution Network," Clinton said.

Asia trip was delayed dude AND Libya and Iraq focus triggers the link

Reuters, 10/28/11, Top Obama aide delays trip to China, India: White House, www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/28/us-usa-china-india-idUSTRE79R5E320111028

President Barack Obama's top national security … at the cost of scarce U.S. jobs.

Spending capital in the pacific

AP 9/8 (‘Pacific president’ Obama behind big US diplomatic push at meeting of Pacific leaders Associated Press, Published: September 8 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/pacific-president-obama-behind-big-us-diplomatic-push-at-meeting-of-pacific-leaders/2011/09/08/gIQAvHIGBK_story.html)

President Barack Obama has … as White House officials.

Israel is a constant drain – disproves the internal link

Economist 9-17, “A problem with club Med”, https://www.economist.com/node/21529038

When is anything going to go right for …. for its friendship with Israel.

AT: South China Sea

No SCS conflict—tensions cause conflict management

Gupta 10/23

Rukmani Gupta, Associate Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses,10/23/11, South China Sea Conflict? No Way, the-diplomat.com/2011/10/23/south-china-sea-conflict-no-way/

These suggestions to recalibrate ….s seems somewhat exaggerated.

Wont escalate—tensions are bluffs for negotiating leverage

Gupta 10/23

Rukmani Gupta, Associate Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses,10/23/11, South China Sea Conflict? No Way, the-diplomat.com/2011/10/23/south-china-sea-conflict-no-way/

Despite what opinion pieces in the … to secure a better negotiating stance.