PLAN TEXT
PLAN: The USFG should substantially increase its democracy assistance for Bahrain by providing material support for civil society organizations through the State Department’s Middle East Partnership Initiative.
SOLVENCY
The US should increase its democracy assistance through the State Departments Middle East Partnership Initiative.
Alhasan ’12 Hasan Tariq Alhasan is currently pursuing a Master in International Political Economy at the London School of Economics, UK, having obtained an undergraduate degree in Political Science (Middle East concentration) from the Institut d’Etudes Politiques (Sciences Po) in Paris, France. 19 January 2012 “ Counter-balancing Saudi Arabia: why the US should not abandon Bahrain’s reformists” accessed 1/20/12 at http://www.opendemocracy.net/hasan-tariq-alhasan/counter-balancing-saudi-arabia-why-us-should-not-abandon-bahrain%E2%80%99s-reformists
Over the past year, several western academics and … Crown Prince’s reform agenda, arguably one of the country’s few remaining ways out of its boiling political crisis.
US action solves – Bahrain is key to the region and reform is the only potential stabilizer.
Gershman ’11 (Carl Gershman, President of the National Endowment for Democracy At the Presentation of the Ion Ratiu Democracy Award to Nabeel Rajab of Bahrain The Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington, D.C. December 1, 2011
I want to begin by congratulating Nabeel Rajab for receiving … can seize this opportunity and realize its full potential.
Action now is key – it solves Saudi obstructionism.
Fakhro and Ulrichsen ‘12 Elham Fakhro and Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, 19 January 2012 .Elham Fakhro is a research associate for international law and strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies - Middle East. She also worked with the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry during its mandate period. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen is a research fellow at the London School of Economics (LSE). His work includes The Logistics and Politics of the British Campaigns in the Middle East (Palgrave, 2010). His latest book, Insecure Gulf: The End of Certainty and the Transition to the Post-Oil Era (Hurst & Co.) is published on May 23, 2011. “ Post-BICI Bahrain: between reform and stagnation” accessed 1/25/12 at http://www.opendemocracy.net/kristian-coates-ulrichsen-elham-fakhro/post-bici-bahrain-between-reform-and-stagnation
Given that Saudi Arabia’s ruling Al-Saud will simply … of Bahrain’s February 14 uprising is fraught with dangers as it could as easily signal the next phase of the confrontation as it could the resolution of the present one.
The past dialogue was a sham but opposition groups are still open to a more serious one.
AFP ’11 (AFP) – Dec 19, 2011 “ Bahrain opposition urges talks” accessed 1/6/12 at http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gzDdkobtrfgmiVO69MsqNU9nHAJg?docId=CNG.65f564f60f03ebab6c4103aa632a6e7a.361
Bahrain opposition groups have urged the government to …of a highly critical report of abuses by the security forces during the protests in February and March.
The US must push reform and the regime has an economic incentive to allow it.
Bockenfeld ‘11 (Cole Bockenfeld is Director of Advocacy at the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED). This article was written for the Common Ground News Service (CGNews). 04 October 2011 “ Protecting the US-Bahraini relationship” accessed 1/6/12 at http://www.commongroundnews.org/article.php?id=30471&lan=en&sp=0&isNew=0&partner=rss&emc=rss
The United States has maintained a key security relationship with Bahrain … government have a responsibility to act and deliver meaningful reform and accountability, or risk the very scenario both wish to avoid.
AID NOW: Tunisia
Google News - March 29, 2012 (AFP, "US to provide $100 million to Tunisia", http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hEu6OAJ6GKNrPCUlfHQ2AreDbt1w?docId=CNG.986cfcc24d5cff1f983c8f37ea3af555.61)
WASHINGTON — The United States said Thursday … delivers for the Tunisian people, and to help Tunisian businesses -- large and small -- become engines of job creation," Clinton said.
AID NOW: Syria
Barnard, 3/27
Anne Barnard / Beirut/ (Lebanon) Mar 27, 2012, 00:23 IST, 2012 The New York Times News Service, “ US and Turkey to step up 'nonlethal' aid to Syria rebels Ankara shuts embassy in Damascus in diplomatic arm-twisting” accessed 3/27/12 at http://business-standard.com/india/news/usturkey-to-stepnonlethal-aid-to-syria-rebels/469157/
The US had already announced that it had been providing … that no weaponry would be sent.
AID NOW: Egypt
The Moment, 3/26
The Moment, Nigeria's most independent Newspaper, Posted at 26/03/2012 11:15 AM | Updated at 26/03/2012 11:15 AM “ U.S. approves Egypt military aid despite rights fears” accessed 3/27/12 at http://www.momentng.com/en/news/7122/us-approves-egypt-military-aid-despite-rights-fears.html
THE Obama administration on Friday formally released $1.3 … Hosni Mubarak.
AID NOW: Warming
CNS News, 3/27, 2012
(Obama Request $770 Million to Fight ‘Global Warming’ Overseas…, FoxNation, http://nation.foxnews.com/president-obama/2012/03/27/obama-requests-770-million-fight-global-warming-overseas)
(CNSNews.com) — The Obama administration has requested $770 … that if approved by Congress would bring total foreign climate change spending to $3.3 billion.
A1: IRAN
Protesters in Bahrain don’t want an Iranian style government.
ICG ’11 (International Crisis Group, “POPULAR PROTESTS IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (III): THE BAHRAIN REVOLT” Middle East/North Africa Report N°105 – 6 April 2011. Accessed 8/18/11 at http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/105-%20Popular%20Protests%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20-III-The%20Bahrain%20Revolt.ashx
All in all, as Crisis Group previously described, there is no credible …other, prompting a rhetorical escalation.62
Democratic Bahrain would put pressure on Iran for its own reforms.
Dabashi ’11 (Hamid Dabashi is Hagop Kevorkian Professor of Iranian Studies and Comparative Literature at Columbia University in New York. 27 May 2011 11:12 “ The role of the Islamic Republic in Bahrain” accessed 8/7/11 at http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/201152615949157661.html
Clearing through all the hypocrisies and duplicities that cloud the vision, the … an early blooming of the Arab Spring.
The best way to keep Iranian influence out of Bahrain is through increased Democratization.
Cooley and Nexon ’11 (ALEXANDER COOLEY is Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College and a member of Columbia University's Arnold A. Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies. DANIEL H. NEXON is Associate Professor in the School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government at Georgetown University. April 5, 2011 “ Bahrain's Base Politics” accessed 8/9/11 at http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=2
Abandoning the idea of a zero-sum trade-off … to scramble after it is under way.
Green movement opposes nuclearization.
Lutz, ‘09
Meris Lutz in Beirut, Los Angeles Times, “IRAN: Green movement 'understands world's concerns' over nuclear Iran” September 23, 2009, accessed 2/24.12 at http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2009/09/iran-green-movement-understands-worlds-concerns-over-nuclear-iran-reaches-out-to-us.html
A spokesman for Iranian opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi is …in fact has similar concerns itself," the statement said.
Green movement can still be revived.
Dehghanpisheh, 2/14
“In Iran, a Stirring of Green Protesters Produces a Clampdown” By Babak Dehghanpisheh Tuesday, Feb. 14, 2012 Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2106842,00.html#ixzz1nKhU2gPA
There was a palpable sense of excitement among the supporters of … at all in the streets, it still rattles the regime."
Even reform changes how the nuclear issue plays out.
Ash, ‘10
Timothy Garton Ash is a historian, political writer and Guardian columnist. guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 9 June 2010 13.59 EDT “ Iran's tortured Green movement is down but not out. We can still help One harrowing year since the stolen election, the people of Iran need the world's attention to go beyond the nuclear issue” accessed 2/24/12 at http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jun/09/iran-tortured-green-elections-nuclear
Bombing Iran, as advocated by hotheads in the US and Israel, would …set of linkages around the nuclear issue.
SCENARIO 1: Nuclearization
Iran is going nuclear now – IAEA report proves.
Jeffry Goldberg, 6/6/2011, is a national correspondent for The Atlantic. Author of the book Prisoners: A Story of Friendship and Terror, he has reported from the Middle East and Africa, “Iran Wants the Bomb, and It’s Well on Its Way: Jeffrey Goldberg” Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-06/iran-wants-the-bomb-and-it-s-well-on-its-way-jeffrey-goldberg.html
The IAEA’s new report makes for dry reading -- the agency doesn’t turn …intelligence agencies and independent analysts think that the Iranians already possess enough low- enriched uranium to produce two or three bombs.
Recent production of nuclear fuel rods prove earlier optimistic assessments of Iran’s nuclear program were all wrong.
Daya, ‘12
Ayesha Daya, Bloomberg, - Jan 2, 2012 3:49 AM PT “ Iran Makes First Nuclear Fuel Rod” accessed 1/2/12 at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-02/iran-makes-first-nuclear-fuel-rod-as-it-offers-to-restart-talks.html
Iran produced its first nuclear fuel rod, state-run news agencies reported, as the … psychological warfare launched by Iran against what they see as the tough economic sanctions being placed against it by the U.S.”
Iranian nuclearization starts an arms race, gives terrorists nuclear weapons and risks a nuclear war that would draw in the United States
Matthew Kroenig, Jan/Feb 2012, Kroenig is an assistant professor of Government at Georgetown University and a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, From July 2010 to July 2011, he was a Special Adviser in the Office of the U.S. Secretary of Defense, responsible for defense strategy and policy on Iran, “Time to Attack Iran: Why a Strike Is the Least Bad Option,” Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/print/13405
Some states in the region are doubting U.S. resolve to stop the …as a crisis unfolds, resulting in a nuclear exchange between the two countries that could draw the United States in, as well.
Middle East proliferation dramatically increases the risk of regional nuclear war
Allison ‘6 (Graham, Dir. – Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs – Harvard JFK School of Gov., Boston globe, “The Nightmare This Time”, 3-12, L/N)
Barry Posen, professor of political science at MIT, has presented the most cogent … loose enough to guard against decapitation inherently mean more fingers on more triggers and consequently more prospects of a nuclear weapons launch.
Independently, Nuclear terrorism leads to extinction
Ayson ’10 (Robert Ayson, 2010, Centre for Strategic Studies, Victoria University of Wellington (NZ), “After a Nuclear Terrorist Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 33, DOI: 10.1080/1057610X.2010.483756
But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear attack and a catastrophic interstate … certainly raise alarms in Moscow that might require a degree of advanced consultation from Washington that the latter found itself unable or unwilling to provide.
SCENARIO 2: Indo-Pak War
Nuclear Iran will leverage Islamist groups to destabilize India.
Siddharth Ramana, 6/11/2011, Research Officer, Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, “Debate: Is A Nuclear Iran Good For India? – Analysis,” Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies
First, the myth of Shiite ascendancy helping India’s battle against … and tranquility.
That triggers nuclear war
Juan C. Zarate, 2/18/2011, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, was deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security adviser for combating terrorism from 2005 to 2009, graduated from Harvard twice, “An alarming South Asia powder keg”, Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/18/AR2011021805662.html
Lashkar-i-Taiba holds the match that could spark a conflagration between …, The Post reported that Pakistan's nuclear weapons and capabilities are set to surpass those of India.
Extinction
Chaffin ’11 (“Reorienting U.S. Security Strategy in South Asia”, Greg Chaffin, July 8, 2011, research assistant with Foreign Policy In Focus. http://www.fpif.org/articles/reorienting_us_security_strategy_in_south_asia
The greatest threat to regional security (although curiously not at the top of … their own cross-border incursions to nab or kill anti-Indian terrorists, either preemptively or after the fact. Such provocative action could very well lead to all-out war between the two that could quickly escalate.
A2: HUMAN RIGHTS
Widespread human rights abuses are taking place in Bahrain.
Press TV ‘11 (Press TV, Mon Aug 1, 2011 6:35PM GMT, “ 'Bahrain regime unwilling to reform'” Interview with Nabeel Rajab, head of Bahrain Centre for Human Rights, accessed 8/2/11 at http://www.presstv.ir/detail/191891.html
In Manama, hundreds of recently-fired workers have …such a dialogue or such a reform.
US action is needed and now is key.
Aziz and Musalem ’11 (Sahar Aziz is a legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law (fall 2011), and has served as a senior policy advisor at the Office for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Abdullah Musalem holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade. July 2011 “ Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement” Institute for Social Policy and Understanding. Accessed 8/12/11 at http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf
While President Obama’s Middle East speech on May 19, 2011 … is at the center of its entire national security strategy.
Human rights trump other claims – they are a prerequisite to preventing war and genocide.
Felice ’96 (William F. Felice, Assistant Professor, International Relations and Global Affairs at Eckerd College, ’96 “Taking suffering seriously: the importance of collective human rights” A Volume in the SUNY series in Global Conflict and Peace Educaton. STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK PRESS.
A right can be defined as a claim on other to a certain kind … rights “trump” other claims (Dworkin 1997, 364).
A3: SECTARIAN VIOLENCE
Regional sectarian violence is on the brink.
Allawi ‘12
Ali A. Allawi served as Iraq’s minister of trade, defense and finance in succession between 2003 and 2006. January 1, 2012 “ How Iraq Can Define Its Destiny” accessed 1/6/12 at http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/opinion/how-iraq-can-define-its-destiny.html
Finally, the current atmosphere in the region reeks of an …disaster — prompted in no small measure by the nefarious work of bigoted and ignorant clerics, often inspired by the intolerant ideology of Wahhabist Islam.
US action key to preventing sectarian violence.
Habibi ’11 (Nader Habibi is the Henry J. Leir professor of economics of the Middle East in Brandeis University's Crown Center for Middle East Studies. He was the director of forecasting and risk analysis for the Middle East and Africa region in the economic consulting firm IHS Global Insight before joining the faculty of Brandies University in 2007. “ U.S. Silence on Bahrain Crackdown Ignores Iraq Factor” Monday, April 25, 2011 accessed 10/18/11 at http://www.iranreview.org/content/Documents/U_S_Silence_on_Bahrain_Crackdown_Ignores_Iraq_Factor.htm
Current U.S. policy toward Bahrain not only ignores the … in part toward the United States. Furthermore, it could reignite sectarian violence between Iraq's Sunnis and Shiites.
Sectarian violence in Iraq spills over.
Montero ‘7 (David Montero, Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor / February 2, 2007 “ Shiite-Sunni conflict rises in Pakistan” accessed 10/18/11 at http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0202/p01s02-wosc.html
In this Punjabi city of shrines, Shiites and Sunnis prayed … University of New York, in an e-mail.
Goes Nuclear
Raman ‘7 (CNN's Aneesh Raman reports from Cairo. Also in this broadcast, HISHAM KASSEM, MIDEAST ANALYST “ Opposing the 'Surge'; Energy Challenge; Second Air Strike Against Suspected al Qaeda Targets in Somalia” Aired January 24, 2007 - 14:01 ET THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED. Accessed 10/18/11 at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0701/24/cnr.05.html
RAMAN: For years, Sunnis, given their reach, have dominated … to all Arab streets. But unthinkable as it may seem, people here are bracing for anything.
