Contention 1: Economy

...

Econ down now. Instability on the brink. Foreign Direct Investment key now to create jobs.

Daily News Egypt, 9-25-11

[Daily News Egypt carries local and regional business, political and cultural, news and analysis, from an Egyptian perspective. “Lack of Economic Policy deters local/foreign investment” http://thedailynewsegypt.com/economy/analysis-lack-of-economic-policy-deters-local-foreign-investment.html]

As Egypt’s transitional government struggles ...government is relaying.

Revolution and instability have caused “capital flight” crushing hope of economic recovery.

Ferguson, a professor of history at Harvard University, 6-5-11

[Niall, a professor of business administration at Harvard Business School. “The Revolution Blows Up” http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/06/05/egypt-the-revolution-blows-up.html]

Western journalists …. the onset of the Arab Spring.

Current economic assistance fails- doesn’t support growth or get past red tape.

Dadush and Dunne, Director of the International Economics Programs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Fall, 2011
 [Uri, “American and European Responses to the Arab Spring: What’s the Big Idea?” http://www.twq.com/11autumn/index.cfm?id=458]

Egypt and ,,, backward regions.

Egyptian recovery is key to global recovery.

Schuman, writes about Asia and global economic issues as a correspondent for TIME based in Hong Kong, 2-2-2011

[Michael, “Does the turmoil in Egypt threaten the global recovery?” http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/02/02/does-the-turmoil-in-egypt-threaten-the-global-recovery/#ixzz1TT6k4O6d] GW

At first glance, the ...an unwelcome surprise.

And even brief shut-down of the Suez creates global econ collapse and war.

Allan Erickson, 2/3/2011, Allan Erickson enjoyed an eleven-year career in radio, television and print journalism as a reporter, talk show host, and operations manager, “The Fall of Egypt and the Prospect of Nuclear War,” Portland Political Buzz Examiner, http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-portland/the-fall-of-egypt-and-the-prospect-of-nuclear-war

Worldwide attention has been focused ...have ever seen.

Economic collapse triggers global war between the US, India and China.

Walter Russell Mead, 2/4/2009. Senior Fellow in US Foreign Policy Studies at CFR. “Only Makes You Stronger,” The New Republic, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=1.

The greatest danger both to ...still have to fight.

...

And, Egypt is the regional determinant—US investment is key.

Kagan and Dunne, Senior Fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe and Senior Associate Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 3-7-11

[Robert and Michelle, “Why Egypt Has to be the U.S. Priority in the Middle East” http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0307_egypt_kagan.aspx]

With the … be kind if we blow this opportunity. 

Now is key. Prolonged decline leads to radical takeover.
 Dadush and Dunne, Director of the International Economics Programs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Fall, 2011 [Uri, “American and European Responses to the Arab Spring: What’s the Big Idea?” http://www.twq.com/11autumn/index.cfm?id=458]

Although Gulf States … final outcome.

FDI k/t jobs NOW!

Dunne 4-22-11 Michele Dunne is as a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and editor of the online journal, the Arab Reform Bulletin  http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/04/22/what-europe-can-do-for-egypt/9s9

While the strong anti-...the democratic experiment.

Only job creation will be able to kick-start Egypt’s economy stop instability

Kinninmont and Johnson, 6-9-11

[Jane- Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham house, Toni, Senior Staff writer CFR.org” “Shaky economies for Egypt, Tunisia” http://www.cfr.org/economics/shaky-economies-egypt-tunisia/p25243cid=rss-middleeast-shaky_economies_for_egypt%2C_tun-060911&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+region%2Fmiddle_east+%28CFR.org+-+Regions+-+Middle+East%29]

The successful ousting of Tunisian ...the unemployment issue.

...

Contention 2: Relations

Egypt is leaning away from the US, but an FTA revives that relationship – it’s pivotal to solve Egypt-Israel war.

Robert Satloff, 9/14/2011, executive director of The Washington Institute, “High-Level US Attentione Needed to the Dire Situation in Egypt,” The Cutting Edge, http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=52749

Last weekend's mob attacks on ...anti-West.

Egyptian-Israeli war draws in great powers and goes nuclear

James Russell, Spring 2009, Editor of Strategic Insights, Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers

Strategic stability in the region ...the entire world.

Independently, the Muslim Brotherhood has the organizational advantage of every other political party- parliamentary control is assured.

Trager, Ira Weiner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, September, 2011

[Eric, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Pennsylvania “The Unbreakable Muslim Brotherhood” Ebsco]

IN THE months since Mubarak's ...Banna in 1928."

Muslim brotherhood take-over collapses Egypt-Israel relations, causes war.

Rubin, the director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, 8-14-11

[Barry, He is a featured columnist at PJM (http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/) and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal, “The Region: The revolutionary movement's big split”, http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=233765]

The Sunni-Shi’ite fighting ...in any way.

Even if the Egyptian peace treaty with Israel is not overturned, Egypt will support Israel’s enemies.

Daniel Byman, Summer 2011...Lebanese ally Hezbollah.

This causes an Israeli unilateral attack.

Daniel Byman, Summer 2011, Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Research Director of the Saban Center tor Middle East Policy at Brookings, “Israel’s pessimistic view of the Arab Spring,” The Washington Quarterly,

Should pressure ease, and ...confrontation with Israel.

Terrorist attack on Israel causes WMD use and extinction.

Beres, the professor of political science and international law at Purdue University, 8-17-11

[Louis, the chair of Project Daniel (Israel), “Israel, anarchy and global chaos”, http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-EdContributors/Article.aspx?id=234092]

The probability of expanding Middle ...human are leveled

But- trade Liberalization stops Islamist take-over. Only economic restructuring allows for democracy in the long-term.

Yildrim, Postdoctoral Fellow in Regional Political Economy The Niehaus Center, Princeton University, 4-25-11

[A. Kadir, “Globalization and the Rise of Muslim Democratic Parties: The Role of the BusinessSector.” International Relations Faculty Colloquium, Princeton University]

In this paper, I have … in the system

...

Regenerating the economy and upward mobility tempers Muslim Brotherhood from radical Islam.

Pict, an economics teacher at the Louisiana Scholar’s College, 2-11-2011

[James, “After Mubarak: The Muslim Brotherhood” http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/stimulus/2011/feb/11/after-mubarak-muslim-brotherhood/]

Were the poor driving the ...an Islamic bent.

FTA would check back populist and statist tendencies from new Egyptian government.
Washington Post, 4-25-2011

[How the U.S. can help Egypt http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how_the_us_can_help_egypt/2011/04/25/AFvh14kE_story.html]

We’d like to think … a secular democracy.

FTA signals U.S. commitment to Egypt’s transition and solves relations

Dunne et al, 6/2011, Michele Dunne is as a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and editor of the online journal, the Arab Reform Bulletin, Jeffrey Gedmin former prez of radio free Europe, Marek Dabrowski Professor of Economics, former President of the CASE - Center for Social and Economic Research in Warsaw, Uri Dadush is senior associate and director in Carnegie's International Economics Program, Hafez Ghanem is Assistant Director-General, Economic and Social Development Department, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Mara Revkin junior fellow at Carnegie, Dalibor Rohac, Dessy Roussanova, Michal Safianik, Tarik Yousef, “Egypt’s Democratic Transition: Five Important Myths About the Economy and International Assistance,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/07/21/egypt-s-democratic-transition-five-important-myths-about-economy-and-international-assistance/41ca#

Far-reaching reforms … transport infrastructure.

PLAN: The United States federal government should offer a Free Trade Agreement to Egypt on the condition of Egyptian democratic reforms. We’ll clarify.

...

Contention 3: Solvency

Egyptians want an FTA

Statloff 9/14

(Robert Statloff; Sep 14, 2011; Statloff is the executive director of The Washington Institute; http://goo.gl/6FIQE)

Even so, this does ...S. policy.

You get no DA

1. Congress pushing demo promo—Egypt funding proves

Kull 9/5 (Stephen, staff writer- CNN.com, 2011, “Why Muslims are Still Mad at America,” CNN World, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/05/why-muslims-are-still-mad-at-america/)

This is not simply imagined...the Muslim Brotherhood.

2. Congressman Dreir has offered an FTA to Egypt

Ibrahim 9/30

(Merette Ibrahim; writer for youm7.com; http://english.youm7.com/News.asp?NewsID=345896&)

CAIRO: U.S...economy of Egypt.”

A2 T: Conditions

We meet: The offer of the FTA is the form of democracy assistance- NOT the condition itself.

Over-Arching claims of DA is bad. Must use case-by-case basis.

PHILLIPS January 2008(D avid L. Phillips is a project director of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and currently a visiting scholar at Columbia University’s Center for the Study of Human Rights.  ENHANCING DEMOCRACY ASSISTANCE A RESEARCH PROJECT OF THE NATIONAL COMMITTEE ON AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY AND AND PROJECT DIRECTORS. acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/65/Enhancing%20Democracy%20Assistance.pdf

Today’s democracy assistance must … also play an important advocacy role.

Counter-Interpretation: Plan action must be positively conditioned and using established means of Democracy Assistance.

Thomas Carothers is vice-president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is the author or editor of many books on democracy promotion, January 2009. “Democracy Assistance: Political vs. Developmental?” JOURNAL OF DEMOCRACY, Volume 20, Number 1

Identifying the essential elements …. conclusion about which approach is dominant is difficult.

Prefer our interp:

Predictable ground -- Conditioning Trade Assistance has been done in the past.

Jones, Oct 2011(General James L. Jones was appointed by the U.S. Secretary of State as special envoy for Middle East security. He served as chairman of the Atlantic Council from June 2007 to January 2009, when he assumed the post of National Security Advisor which he held until November 201) .Bipartisan Policy Center Investing in the Revolution: Economics and the Prospects for Democracy in Egypt”http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/B PC%2 0Egypt%20Paper.pdf

In addition to technical assistance, … content enjoy dutyfree status in the U.S.

Ground: Mechanism based limits  produce best starting point for clash

Phillips 2k8 David L. Phillips is a project director of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and currently a visiting scholar at Columbia University’s Center for the Study of Human Rights., 2008. “Enhancing Democracy Assistance,” AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY INSTERESTS, 30: 156-175

A toolbox of approaches and methods … used democracy assistance techniques.

Their Interp is Bad:

Over-Limiting: All US aid is conditioned they AND there is no distinction between assistance and promotion.

Lappin, 9-12-11

[Richard, Faculty of PoliticalSciencesat the University of Belgrade, “Defining Democracy Assistance” Email exchange between Will Mosley-Jensen (Georgia Debate) and Richard Lappin, http://www.georgiadebate.org/2011/09/defining-democracy-assistance]

In my article I stressed the importance … support the advance of democracy everywhere.'

Mixes Burdens: Their interp begs the question of whether or not any mechanism “directly” increases democracy.

Destroys education: Limits out entire countries of the topic- can’t give election monitoring to Syria.

Education:

Reasonability Good: Competing interpretations is infinitely regressive and is a race to the bottom.

Don’t Vote on Potential Abuse

China Heg Add-On

The Suez Canal disruption causes expansion of China’s naval power.

Butler, 1-31-11

[Joanne, a senior economics fellow at the Caesar Rodney Institute of Delaware, “What would China do if the Suez Canal were closed?”

HYPERLINK "http://dailycaller.com/2011/01/31/what-would-china-do-if-the-suez-canal-were-closed/" \l "ixzz1Z6li3qAg" \t "_blank" http://dailycaller.com/2011/01/31/what-would-china-do-if-the-suez-canal-were-closed/#ixzz1Z6li3qAg accessed date: 9-26-11] y2k

Despite the turmoil in Egypt, the Suez Canal is … interesting very fast. Stay tuned.

No US/China war – relations are stable – and economics checks

Sargent 8 (Sara, Business Reporter – Medill News Service, “China Space Launch Raises Fears”, UPI, 10-3, Lexis)

In January 2007 China conducted …an exceptionally unlikely scenario.

-- Relations resilient

China Daily 3 (2-13, Lexis)

During President Jiang Zemin's visit to …differences in Sino-US relations.

-- Won’t go nuclear

PPG 4 (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Pennsylvania), 9-29, Lexis)

U.S. military capacity is now so … Chinese are definitely not into terrorism.

U.S. nuclear primacy checks war

Lieber and Press 6 (Keir A., Assistant Professor of Political Science – Notre Dame and Daryl G., Associate Professor of Political Science – University of Pennsylvania, Foreign Affairs, March / April, Lexis)

For almost half a century, the … emboldened and unconstrained United States, will worry.

Backlash

US influence in Egypt is key to checking Iran

Clemons, 11

 (Steven Clemens, founder of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation, Publisher of the popular political blog The Washington Note, Mr. Clemons is a long-term policy practitioner and entrepreneur in Washington, D.C. He has served as Executive Vice President of the Economic Strategy Institute, Senior Policy Advisor on Economic and International Affairs to Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) and was the first Executive Director of the Nixon Center, “How Outcome in Egypt Could Affect the United States,” New America Foundation February 2, 2011, HYPERLINK "http://newamerica.net/publications/articles/2011/how_outcome_in_egypt_could_affect_the_united_states_44092" http://newamerica.net/publications/articles/2011/how_outcome_in_egypt_could_affect_the_united_states_44092 )

How will it affect the U.S. role … impact on the region could be profound.

Egypt is the wild card- even a small shift in Iran-Egypt relations causes major re-alignment

Marashi and Parsi, 11

(Reza Marashi is the research director for the National Iranian American Council. Previously, he served in the U.S. State Department in the Office of Iranian Affairs, and was an analyst at the Institute for National Strategic Studies. Trita Parsi is the founder and president of the National Iranian American Council. He is the author of Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Iran, Israel and the United States, which earned a 2008 Arthur Ross Book Award from the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the 2010 recipient of the Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. Arab Spring Seen From Tehran, The Cairo Global Review, HYPERLINK "http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:LRrs1q1gueIJ:www.aucegypt.edu/gapp/cairoreview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx%3Faid%3D62+http://www.aucegypt.edu/gapp/cairoreview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx%3Faid%3D62&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a&source=www.google.com" http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:LRrs1q1gueIJ:www.aucegypt.edu/gapp/cairoreview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx%3Faid%3D62+http://www.aucegypt.edu/gapp/cairoreview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx%3Faid%3D62&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a&source=www.google.com )

As Iran jockeys for regional preeminence, … to conform to U.S.–Israel–Saudi efforts to contain it

That causes US-Iran war via miscalculation

Dreyfuss, 11

(Robert, investigative journalist whose work has appeared in The Nation, Rolling Stone, Mother Jones, The American Prospect, and other progressive publications. His work also appears on line at TomPaine.com. Dreyfuss received a bachelor's degree from Columbia University. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Dreyfuss was Middle East Intelligence director of the Executive Intelligence Review, the flagship journal of the Lyndon LaRouche movement. His 1981 book, Hostage to Khomeini, was commissioned by Lyndon LaRouche and it was cowritten with Thierry LeMarc. The book was published by the LaRouche publishing house of the time, New Benjamin Franklin House. In the 1990s Dreyfuss wrote on intelligence issues and foreign affairs, and profiled a number of organizations and public figures, “Averting a Disaster in the Persian Gulf,” June 8, 2011, HYPERLINK "http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2011/06/averting-a-disaster-in-the-persian-gulf.html" http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2011/06/averting-a-disaster-in-the-persian-gulf.html )

Both warned that military miscalculations … clear idea of Iran's security concerns."

The impact is extinction- outweighs on probability and magnitude

Chossudovsky, 10

(Michel Chossudovsky is an award-winning author, Professor of Economics (Emeritus) at the University of Ottawa and Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), Montreal. He is the author of The Globalization of Poverty and The New World Order (2003) and America’s “War on Terrorism” (2005), Preparing for World War III, Targeting Iran, Part I: Global Warfare, August 1, 2010, HYPERLINK "http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?aid=20403&context=va" http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?aid=20403&context=va )

The real threat to global security … will be fought with sticks and stones.”

1. Not Pass – GOP.

Shahid, a staff reporter for NY Daily News, 10-29-11

[Aliyah, “President Obama in weekly address: Millionaires are willing to pay higher taxes for my jobs bill” http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/president-obama-weekly-address-millionaires-pay-higher-taxes-jobs-bill-article-1.968823#ixzz1cCuX00Lg accessed date: 10-29-11] y2k

Senate GOPers …… in the past, he said.

2. Obama doesn’t have capital AND winner’s win – this is specific to Jobs bill.

Clift and Cohn, 9-23-11

[Eleanor and Douglas, staff writers for Poconorecord News, “Obama cannot bypass Congress” http://www.poconorecord.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20110923/NEWS04/109230324/-1/news04 accessed date: 9-24-11] y2k

WASHINGTON — President Obama is ……stayed home.

3. Political Capital is not key AND Piecemeal fails

AP, 10-20-11

[“One Fake Jobs Bill Defeated Three” http://www.sacbee.com/2011/10/20/3990764/one-fake-jobs-bill-defeated-three.html#ixzz1bLaaFiib accessed date: 10-21-11] y2k

WASHINGTON (AP) — Despite a campaign-…. chance of success jobs bill By AP | October 21, 2011 Chat inShare Email

4. No bipartisanship AND Obama has already spent capital AND Infrastructure spending bill already causes the link– the evidence assumes every parts of the job bill, including payroll tax cuts

Miami Herald, 10-28-11

[“Partisan divisions prevent Congress from passing jobs bills” http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/10/28/2476802/partisan-divisions-prevent-congress.html#ixzz1cCtcAhKH accessed date: 10-29-11] y2k

WASHINGTON — After weeks …..private-sector job creators," McConnell said, "instead of looking for ways to punish them."

5. Assistance to Egypt boosts Obama’s capital

Foley, a staff reporter for Huntington Post, 2-14-2011

[Elise, “Obama Proposes Cuts To Democracy-Promoting Programs Abroad, Despite GOP Rebukes Over Egypt” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/14/obama-proposes-cuts-to-de_n_822861.html accessed date: 7-20-2011] y2k

WASHINGTON -- Amid the tumultuous …… to $104 million.

6. Not top of the docket – Congress is working on 6 different legislations.

NRDC, 11-10-11

[National Resource Defense Council, “Legislative Watch November 10, 2011” http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/legwatch/legislative_watch_november_10.html accessed date: 11-10-11] y2k

The House of …..y U.S. border, land or sea.

8. Congress will not act AND capital not key AND Obama will divert to executive orders – that still solves jobs.

Cohen, a staff reporter for CNN, 11-02-11

[Tom, “Obama uses executive orders as a political tool” http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/01/politics/obama-executive-orders/ accessed date: 11-2-11] y2k

Washington (CNN) -- President Barack Obama …..with the president

9. Link Thumper – Net-neutrality.

Jackson, a staff reporter for GCN, 11-8-11

[William, “Congress, White House ready to throw down over net neutrality” http://gcn.com/Articles/2011/11/08/Net-Neutrality-White-House-Congress-fight.aspx?Page=1

The Obama administration …..net neutrality

10. Veteran Jobs bill proves no spillover

AP, 11-10-11

[“Senate approves jobs benefits for veterans” http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/senate-approves-jobs-benefits-for-veterans/2011/11/10/gIQAQFgM9M_story.html Accessed date: 11-10-11] y2k

WASHINGTON — A united Senate ……economy.

11. Not intrinsic – no reason why logical policymaker cannot pass both.

12. FTA solves the impact.

Chao, a Distinguished Fellow at The Heritage Foundation, 10-20-11

[Elaine, “One fake jobs bill defeated, three real jobs bills ratified” http://www.sacbee.com/2011/10/20/3990764/one-fake-jobs-bill-defeated-three.html#ixzz1bLb6DrFt accessed date: 10-20-11] y2k

Read more: …..

and industrial goods.

Aff: George Mason KM
Round 5
ASU BN
Eric Robertson

Plan: USFG should offer an FTA to Egypt on the condition of Democratic reforms

1AC:

Egypt economy/Suez Canal
Relations/Israel Strikes on Egypt

2AC offense:
perm on cp
winners win
condo/perf con

1AR: perm/winners win/condo

2AR: Perm on cp

1AC Civil Society

The US engages in some democracy assistance in Bahrain but it’s not enough – security concerns are always put first.

Katzman, ’11 Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs July 7, 2011, Congressional Research Service “ Bahrain: Reform, Security, and U.S. Policy” accessed 8/2/11 at http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/95-1013.pdf

For many …government.

PLAN: The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its democracy assistance for Bahrain by providing material support to civil society organizations in Bahrain.

Solvency

Now is a key time for democracy in Bahrain.

Aziz and Musalem, ’11 Sahar Aziz is a legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law (fall 2011), and has served as a senior policy advisor at the Office for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.  Abdullah Musalem holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade. July 2011 “ Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement”  Institute for Social Policy and Understanding. Accessed 8/12/11 at http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf

Bahrain …interest.

There is still a chance to peacefully transition in Bahrain.

ICG, ’11 International Crisis Group, “POPULAR PROTESTS IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (III): THE BAHRAIN REVOLT” Middle East/North Africa Report N°105 – 6 April 2011. Accessed 8/18/11 at http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/105-%20Popular%20Protests%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20-III-The%20Bahrain%20Revolt.ashx

The crackdown …at worst.

US Key TO STOPPING Saudi influence while bringing regional actors to the table.

Abrams, former senior director for the Near East, 11-25-11

[Elliot, deputy national security adviser handling Middle East affairs in the George W. Bush administration and a senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, “Abrams: Last Chance of Bahrain”, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/25/abrams-last-chance-for-bahrain/]

That means …e coming months.

Civil society provides the signal for genuine dialogues and political reforms – key to democracy.

Aziz and Musalem, ’11 Sahar Aziz is a legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law (fall 2011), and has served as a senior policy advisor at the Office for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.  Abdullah Musalem holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade. July 2011 “ Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement”  Institute for Social Policy and Understanding. Accessed 8/12/11 at http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf

Notwithstanding this …role and respond accordingly.

Civil society has already proven effective.

Aziz and Musalem, ’11 Sahar Aziz is a legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law (fall 2011), and has served as a senior policy advisor at the Office for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.  Abdullah Musalem holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade. July 2011 “ Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement”  Institute for Social Policy and Understanding. Accessed 8/12/11 at http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf

By the …authoritarianism.

Advantange 1- Iran

Iran influence is growing in squo.

Choksy, Professor of Central Eurasian Studies and History at Indiana University, 1-06-12

[Jamsheed, “Iran Still Has Hope For The Arab Spring, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2012/Jan-06/159026-iran-still-has-hope-for-the-arab-spring.ashx#axzz1ijQuzBmC]

In Egypt’s …in the Arab world will continue.

Iran is taking advantage of US drawdown in Iraq – now is key.

Schreck et al ’10 ADAM SCHRECK,  Associated Press writers Ali Akbar Dareini in Tehran and Sinan Salaheddin in Baghdad contributed reporting.  June 15, 2010, 5:45AM ET “Iraqis feel Iran's growing clout in their wallets” accessed 9/10/11 at http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9GBKNFG0.htm

Trade with …r's fall in 2003.

Increased Iranian influence makes the use of nuclear weapons more likely.

Hitchens, ’10 Christopher Hitchens, Slate, Posted Monday, May 17, 2010, at 11:42 AM ET “ Don't Let Iran Blackmail the World As the international community stands by, Tehran comes closer to unveiling its nukes.” Accessed 8/20/11 at http://www.slate.com/id/2254073/pagenum/all/#p2

On May 15, …to deliver them.

Unchecked Iranian influence leads to nuclear war.

Ben-Meir, ’7 Alon Ben-Meir is professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses in international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.  Published: 02.07.07, 03:15 “Ending Iran's defiance American pressure at this time will not be taken lightly by Iranian regime” accessed 8/20/11 at http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3361650,00.html

The fact that …conflagration.

This would draw in the US—leading to Global Nuclear Conflict

Jain, visiting fellow for Washington Institute, August, 2011

[Ash, “Nuclear Weapons and Iran’s Global Ambitions: Troubling Scenarios”]

Increased …a nuclear Iran.

Two internal links:

1^st:  Democratic Transition

Current Democratic uprisings in Bahrain threaten Iran

Dabashi, ’11 Hamid Dabashi is Hagop Kevorkian Professor of Iranian Studies and Comparative Literature at Columbia University in New York.  27 May 2011 11:12 “ The role of the Islamic Republic in Bahrain” accessed 8/7/11 at http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/201152615949157661.html

Clearing …of the Arab Spring.

Political Reform would check back Iranian influence.

ICG, ’11 International Crisis Group, “POPULAR PROTESTS IN NORTH AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (III): THE BAHRAIN REVOLT” Middle East/North Africa Report N°105 – 6 April 2011. Accessed 8/18/11 at http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/105-%20Popular%20Protests%20in%20North%20Africa%20and%20the%20Middle%20East%20-III-The%20Bahrain%20Revolt.ashx

Manama’s …the wrong direction.

U.S Aid k.t promote democratic dialogues which also check back Iranian influence.

Gershman, President of the NED, 12-01-11

[Carl, “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring”, http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democracy]

In fact, ..its full potential.

2^nd internal link: 5^th Fleet

Instability jeopardizes the 5^th Fleet in Bahrain.

Katzman, ’11 Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs July 7, 2011, Congressional Research Service “ Bahrain: Reform, Security, and U.S. Policy” accessed 8/2/11 at http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/95-1013.pdf

Unrest in …collectively.

Specifically, instability kills US Naval BMD presence in the gulf. 

Ellison, chairman and founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, 2-22-11

[Riki, chairman and founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, "Unstable Momentum in Middle East Causes More US Need for Missile Defense", Feb 22, PR Newswire, http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/unstable-momentum-in-middle-east-causes-more-us-need-for-missile-defense-116674494.html]

Today… world safer.

That deters Iran – only permanent basing solves credible BMD deterrence.

Goure and Grant, former Deputy Director of the International Security Programs at the CSIS and PhD, 2009

[Daniel, PhD, and Rebecca, "US Naval Options for Influencing Iran", Lexington Institute, Report under consideration for publication in the Naval War College Review, 

Iran ..of missiles.

Advantage 2 – Sectarian violence

US action key to preventing sectarian violence.

Habibi, ‘11

Nader Habibi is the Henry J. Leir professor of economics of the Middle East in Brandeis University's Crown Center for Middle East Studies. He was the director of forecasting and risk analysis for the Middle East and Africa region in the economic consulting firm IHS Global Insight before joining the faculty of Brandies University in 2007.  “ U.S. Silence on Bahrain Crackdown Ignores Iraq Factor”  Monday, April 25, 2011 accessed 10/18/11 at http://www.iranreview.org/content/Documents/U_S_Silence_on_Bahrain_Crackdown_Ignores_Iraq_Factor.htm

Current U.S. …and Shiites.

Sectarian violence in Iraq spills over.

Montero, ‘7

David Montero, Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor / February 2, 2007 “ Shiite-Sunni conflict rises in Pakistan” accessed 10/18/11 at http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0202/p01s02-wosc.html

In this Punjabi ]=.. City University of New York, in an e-mail.

Sectarianism violence creates massive unending Middle East war.

Scheuer, Professor of security studies at GTown, 3-17-11

[Michael, spent twenty-two years in the CIA “The Sum of All Fears, The National Interest”  http://nationalinterest.org/-commentary/the-sum-all-fears-5032?page=show, MCL

With the West …he sum of all fears."

Causes great power war and goes nuclear.

James Russell, Spring 2009, Editor of Strategic Insights, Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers

Strategic …entire world.

Bahraini instability spills over to the Saudi – causes oil shock and Saudi-Iran conflict

Bauer, BA, the institute of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Exeter, 2011

[William “Further Bahrain Unrest Would Be Saudi Arabia's Worst Nightmare”, http://www.policymic.com/articles/further-bahrain-unrest-would-be-saudi-arabia-s-worst-nightmare]

For …political unrest.

A Saudi-Iran conflict also goes nuclear

London, President of Hudson Institute, 6-28-10

[Herbert, professor emeritus of New York University, Herbert, “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East,” http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east]

The coming …exchange.

Oil shock kills economy

Babej, contributor to Forbes, 3-29-11

[Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis-Scenario,” http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej-/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/]

This morning, …ntaining oil derivatives.

Economic collapse triggers global war between the US, India and China.

Walter Russell Mead, 2/4/2009. Senior Fellow in US Foreign Policy Studies at CFR. “Only Makes You Stronger,” The New Republic, http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=1.

The greatest …still have to fight.