Plan
The United States Federal Government should provide substantial constitutional support for democratic reform in Bahrain.
Advantage 1: Sectarian Violence
US action key to preventing sectarian violence.
Habibi, ‘11
Nader Habibi is the Henry J. Leir professor of economics of the Middle East in Brandeis University's Crown Center for Middle East Studies. He was the director of forecasting and risk analysis for the Middle East and Africa region in the economic consulting firm IHS Global Insight before joining the faculty of Brandies University in 2007. “ U.S. Silence on Bahrain Crackdown Ignores Iraq Factor” Monday, April 25, 2011 accessed 10/18/11 at http://www.iranreview.org/content/Documents/U_S_Silence_on_Bahrain_Crackdown_Ignores_Iraq_Factor.htm
Sectarian violence in Iraq spills over.
Montero, ‘7
David Montero, Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor / February 2, 2007 “ Shiite-Sunni conflict rises in Pakistan” accessed 10/18/11 at http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0202/p01s02-wosc.html
Sectarianism violence creates massive unending Middle East war.
Scheuer, Professor of security studies at GTown, 3-17-11
[Michael, spent twenty-two years in the CIA “The Sum of All Fears, The National Interest” http://nationalinterest.org/-commentary/the-sum-all-fears-5032?page=show, MCL
Causes great power war and goes nuclear.
James Russell, Spring 2009, Editor of Strategic Insights, Senior Lecturer Department of National Security Affairs, “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” Security Studies Center Proliferation Papers
Bahraini instability spills over to the Saudi – causes Saudi-Iran conflict
Bauer, BA, the institute of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Exeter, 2011
[William “Further Bahrain Unrest Would Be Saudi Arabia's Worst Nightmare”, http://www.policymic.com/articles/further-bahrain-unrest-would-be-saudi-arabia-s-worst-nightmare]
A Saudi-Iran conflict also goes nuclear
London, President of Hudson Institute, 6-28-10
[Herbert, professor emeritus of New York University, Herbert, “The Coming Crisis In The Middle East,” http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east]
Advantage 2: 5th Fleet
Instability threatens the 5th fleet and fuels Iranian influence
WSJ 11
JULIAN E. BARNES, Wall Street Journal, FEBRUARY 18, 2011, “U.S. Takes Cautious Line on Fifth Fleet's Base”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703561604576150662599202064.html
Instability makes the base untenable.
Katzman, ’11 Kenneth Katzman Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs July 7, 2011, Congressional Research Service “ Bahrain: Reform, Security, and U.S. Policy” accessed 8/2/11 at http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/95-1013.pdf
No impacts to their basing DA – Other potential hosts of navy are years away from ready.
Tomlinson, ‘11
Hugh Tomlinson From: The Australian July 21, 2011 “ US fleet may quit troubled Bahrain” accessed 8/10/11 at http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/us-fleet-may-quit-troubled-bahrain/story-e6frg6so-1226098580227
Departure kills American Naval credibility and destroys Heg
Corpsey, ‘10
Seth, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, former Naval Office and deputy senior under secretary of the Navy in the administration of Reagan and Bush II, “The US Navy in Distress”, Strategic Analysis, Vol.3 34 No. 1, January.
U.S. action is key – perception of credible Iran deterrence key to international security alliances and US power
Etzioni 11
[—Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, George Wash U. Frmr sociology prof at Columbia. PhD in sociology from UC Berkeley, Amitai, The Coming Test of U.S. Credibility, March-April 2011, Military Review, http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf]
Hegemony solves nuclear war and extinction. Multipolarity inevitable, but US power soothes the transition and is empirically correlated to perpetual great power peace
Barnett 11
[Thomas P.M. Barnett 11 Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads ]
Independently, naval power solves great power wars
Conway et al 7
[Conway et al 7 [James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower,” October, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf]
And, a strong US navy is uniquely critical to preventing a benign kind of heg that breeds instability and kills the economy
Eaglan and McGrath 11
[Mackenzie Eaglen is Research Fellow for National Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation. Bryan McGrath is a retired naval officer and the Director of Delex Consulting, Studies and Analysis in Vienna, Virginia. On active duty, he commanded the destroyer USS Bulkeley (DDG 84) and served as the primary author of the current maritime strategy, “Thinking About a Day Without Sea Power: Implications for U.S. Defense Policy”, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2011/05/Thinking-About-a-Day-Without-Sea-Power-Implications-for-US-Defense-Policy, May 16, 2011 ]
Economic declines causes global nuclear war
Merlini, the chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute of International Affairs, 2011
[Cesare, “A Post-Secular World?” Survival, vol. 53 no. 2 pp. 117–13 http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/articles/2011/04_international_relations_merlini/04_international_relations_merlini.pdf accessed date: 11-11-11]
Unchecked Iranian influence leads to nuclear war. Credible deterrence checks
Ben-Meir, ’7 Alon Ben-Meir is professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses in international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies. Published: 02.07.07, 03:15 “Ending Iran's defiance American pressure at this time will not be taken lightly by Iranian regime” accessed 8/20/11 at http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3361650,00.html
Solvency
Only the US can break the deadlock for constitutional monarchy in Bahrain – most recent and qualified evidence
Gershman 12/1
[ Gershman 12/1—Carl, President of the National Endowment for Democracy, “The Price of Freedom and Democracy: Defiant Bahrainis and the Arab Spring”, http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-presentations-and-articles/the-price-of-freedom-and-democrac]
Plan solves – US aid provides the signal needed for genuine dialogue and reforms to occur; plan key to successful democracy in the long run.
Aziz and Musalem, 11 – *legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law, holds an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the University of Texas AND **holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade (Sahar and Abdullah, “Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement,” http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf)
Rehabilitating the Crown Prince is critical to draw the opposition back to the table and reach a deal that results in democratic reforms sufficient enough to block Iranian influence in the Gulf
Aneja 11
[—Researcher for Institute for Defense Studies and West Asia Correspondent for “The Hindu” Atul Aneja, INDIA'S NATIONAL MAGAZINE, Frontline, vol 28, Issue 8, April 09-22, 2011, Contagion of hope http://www.frontlineonnet.com/fl2808/stories/20110422280802400.htm ]
US support bolsters the Crown Prince – makes dialogue possible
Leigh 11
[—Journalist at Time and Hindustan Times The U.S. and Bahrain: How to Talk Just Tough Enough with an Ally, Karen Leigh, Wednesday, June 08, 2011, Time http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2076559,00.html]
The regime has shifted to a stance that makes reform possible
Urlichsen 11
[Sr. Research Fellow @ L.S.E. OpenDemocracy, Bahrain: evolution or revolution?,Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, 1 March 2011, Work includes The Logistics and Politics of the British Campaigns in the Middle East (Palgrave, 2010). His latest book,Insecure Gulf: The End of Certainty and the Transition to the Post-Oil Era (Hurst & Co.) is published on May 23, 2011.]
US explicit democracy key to constitutional monarchy and negotiated solutions – solves conflict and sectarian war
Indyk and Stork 11
[Ambassador & Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution, Stork is a Deputy Director of Middle East and North Africa Division @ Human Rights Watch Official Transcript of a Project on Middle East Democracy Panel with Indyk & Stork: “Tensions in the Persian Gulf after the Arab Uprisings: Implications for U.S. Policy,” Project on Middle East Democracy, U.S. Capitol Visitor Center, SVC 212-10, June 29, 2011, 9:00-11:00am, http://pomed.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Tensions_in_the_Persian_Gulf_June_29_20111.pdf ]
