The Bahraini monarchy has failed to reform causing a spike in violence and anti-americanism
Gengler 12 Justin Gengler, PhD from UMich focusing on Bahrain, 1-1-2012, “Why 2012 Will Be a Lot Like 2011,” Religion and Politics, http://bahrainipolitics.blogspot.com/2012/01/why-2012-will-be-lot-like-2011.html
The launching of the website... to the "Great Satan."
Thus the plan: The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its democracy assistance for Bahrain by providing material support to civil society organizations in Bahrain.
Advantage 1: Sectarian Violence
Regional sectarian violence is on the brink.
Allawi 12 Ali A. Allawi served as Iraq’s minister of trade, defense and finance in succession between 2003 and 2006. January 1, 2012 “ How Iraq Can Define Its Destiny” accessed 1/6/12 at http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/opinion/how-iraq-can-define-its-destiny.html
Finally, the current... of Wahhabist Islam.
US action in Bahrain is key to stabilizing broader sectarian unrest.
Terrill 11 Dr. W. Andrew Terrill joined the Strategic Studies Institute in October 2001, and is SSI's Middle East specialist. Prior to his appointment, he served as a Middle East nonproliferation analyst for the International Assessments Division of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). “The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World” August 2, 2011, accessed 1/6/12 at http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/The-Arab-Spring-and-the-Future-of-US-Interests/2011/8/2#bahrain
The conflict in... Shi'ite community. Such
Prolonged sectarian wars causes extinction
Scheuer 11 Michael, professor of security studies at Georgetown spent twenty-two years in the CIA and is the author of Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War on Terrorism (The Sum of All Fears, The National Interest, March 17, 2011, , MCL)
With the West...the sum of all fears."
Sectarian violence would destabilize Pakistan.
Kauravi 11 Waqar Khan Kauravi, The writer specialises in peace and conflict studies. “ Syria: Powder keg of sectarianism” accessed 11/2/11 at http://pakobserver.net/201108/19/detailnews.asp?id=109664
But Syria politically... become another nightmare.
Leads to Indo-Pak war
Brookes 07 Heritage Foundation Senior Fellow Peter Brookes is a former deputy assistant secretary of defense. Last Updated: 5:00 AM, August 2, 2007 “ BARACK'S BLUNDER INVADE A NUCLEAR POWER?” accessed 11/2/11 at http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/item_oglsLqHa47sH2l3fTEDNJI;jsessionid=69D6DA667C97EDB8FBAF6471E064889E
The fall of Musharraf's... including the United States.
extinction
Starr 11 (Consequences of a Single Failure of Nuclear Deterrence by Steven Starr February 07, 2011 * Associate member of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation * Senior Scientist for PSR
Only a single... Russian nuclear forces.
Advantage 2: Human Rights
Widespread human rights abuses are taking place in Bahrain.
Press TV ‘11 Press TV, Mon Aug 1, 2011 6:35PM GMT, “ 'Bahrain regime unwilling to reform'” Interview with Nabeel Rajab, head of Bahrain Centre for Human Rights, accessed 8/2/11 at http://www.presstv.ir/detail/191891.html
In Manama, hundreds... or such a reform.
US action is needed and now is key
Aziz and Musalem, ’11 Sahar Aziz is a legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law (fall 2011), and has served as a senior policy advisor at the Office for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Abdullah Musalem holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade. July 2011 “ Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement” Institute for Social Policy and Understanding. Accessed 8/12/11 at http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf
While President... security strategy.
Human rights trump other claims – they are a prerequisite to preventing war and genocide.
Felice ’96 William F. Felice, Assistant Professor, International Relations and Global Affairs at Eckerd College, ’96 “Taking suffering seriously: the importance of collective human rights” A Volume in the SUNY series in Global Conflict and Peace Educaton. STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK PRESS.
A right can be defined... claims (Dworkin 1997, 364).
Advantage 3: US/Iraq Relations
US action key to US-Iraqi relations
Habibi 11 Nader Habibi is the Henry J. Leir professor of economics of the Middle East in Brandeis University's Crown Center for Middle East Studies. He was the director of forecasting and risk analysis for the Middle East and Africa region in the economic consulting firm IHS Global Insight before joining the faculty of Brandies University in 2007. “ U.S. Silence on Bahrain Crackdown Ignores Iraq Factor” Monday, April 25, 2011 accessed 10/18/11 at http://www.iranreview.org/content/Documents/U_S_Silence_on_Bahrain_Crackdown_Ignores_Iraq_Factor.htm
Current U.S. policy... Sunnis and Shiites.
US-Iraq relations are key to solve Kurdish tensions
Cordesman 10[Anthony, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS, Jun, “Iraq and the United States Creating a Strategic Partnership,” ]
Such support will.. importer of Gulf oil.
Kurdish tensions in Iraq escalate regionally
Palka 11[Eugene, PhD and Professor of Geography and a Colonel in the United States Army, May 27, “Kurd-Arab tensions along the Green Line,” ]
I submit that the... neighbouring countries.
That causes Turkish-Syrian conflict
Mert 11[Nuray, Hurriyet Daily News, Aug 14, “The Turkey-Syria saga,” http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=the-turkey-syria-saga-2011-08-14]
It is not only... parties in the conflict.
This would cause World War 3 – draws in Iran, Russia and China
Snyder 11[Michael, DC-based lawyer, Jun 28, “Could We Actually See A War Between Syria And Turkey?” ]
War between Syria,,, as a result.
Sectarian violence in Iraq is increasing
Ghosh 1/5 Palash R. Ghosh, International Business Times, January 5, 2012 11:02 AM EST “ Iraq: Scores Die As Sectarian Violence Intensifies” accessed 1/6/12 at http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/277061/20120105/iraq-scores-die-sectarian-violence-intensifies.htm
At least six,,, of mass murder.
Sectarian violence in Iraq spills over
Montero 07 David Montero, Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor / February 2, 2007 “ Shiite-Sunni conflict rises in Pakistan” accessed 10/18/11 at http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0202/p01s02-wosc.html
In this Punjabi... New York, in an e-mail.
This leads to nuclear war
Raman 07 CNN's Aneesh Raman reports from Cairo. Also in this broadcast, HISHAM KASSEM, MIDEAST ANALYST “ Opposing the 'Surge'; Energy Challenge; Second Air Strike Against Suspected al Qaeda Targets in Somalia” Aired January 24, 2007 - 14:01 ET THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED. Accessed 10/18/11 at http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0701/24/cnr.05.html
RAMAN: For years... bracing for anything.
Advantage 4: Leadership
Leadership and clear objectives in Bahrain is key to prevent Obama from being seen as weak
The Washington Times 11
The Washington Times Wednesday, March 16, 2011 “ EDITORIAL: Obama’s Gulf in leadership Mishandling Bahrain exposes White House weakness” accessed 10/12/11 at http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/mar/16/obamas-gulf-in-leadership/
Given these facts... is growing weaker
Perceived strength is key to Global Stability and preventing Russian expansion
Hanson 9 Victor Davis Hanson is the Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow in Residence in Classics and Military History at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, a professor of Classics Emeritus at California State University, Fresno, and a nationally syndicated columnist for Tribune Media Services. He is also the Wayne & Marcia Buske Distinguished Fellow in History, Hillsdale College, where he teaches each fall semester courses in military history and classical culture. Interview by Bernard Chapin Pajamas Media “ Change, Weakness, Disaster, Obama Victor Davis Hanson Answers the Questions” December 16, 2009 accessed 10/12/11 at http://victorhanson.com/articles/hanson121609.html
BC: Are we... whom it will bite or when.
This leads to nuclear war
Blank 9 Stephen J. Blank, March 2009 “ RUSSIA AND ARMS CONTROL: ARE THERE OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION?” PhD. in History from the University of Chicago and has served as the Strategic Studies Institute's expert on the Soviet block and post-Soviet world since 1989
Proliferators or nuclear states... their own people.172
Solvency
Lack of US pressure gives the regime a green light to shut down protesters – empirically proven
Leigh 11 Karen Leigh Wednesday, June 08, 2011, “ The U.S. and Bahrain: How to Talk Just Tough Enough with an Ally” accessed 12/23/11 at http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2076559,00.html
On Tuesday — just seven... and tear gas.
Civil society has already proven effective in Bahrain
Aziz and Musalem 11 Sahar Aziz is a legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law (fall 2011), and has served as a senior policy advisor at the Office for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Abdullah Musalem holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade. July 2011 “ Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement” Institute for Social Policy and Understanding. Accessed 8/12/11 at http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf
By the end... traditional authoritarianism.
Now is a key time for the US to act in Bahrain
Aziz and Musalem 11 Sahar Aziz is a legal fellow at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, an associate professor of law at Texas Wesleyan University School of Law (fall 2011), and has served as a senior policy advisor at the Office for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Abdullah Musalem holds degrees in sociology as well as Middle Eastern language and cultures. Mr. Musalem grew up in Bahrain, where he has conducted social research, and has been a frequent visitor to the county over the past decade. July 2011 “ Citizens, Not Subjects: Debunking the Sectarian Narrative of Bahrain’s Pro-Democracy Movement” Institute for Social Policy and Understanding. Accessed 8/12/11 at http://ispu.org/pdfs/640_ISPU%20Report_Bahrain_Aziz_Musalem_WEB.pdf
Bahrain has... national interest.
Right now is a key time for US action – Bahrain is key to the region and reform is the only potential stabilizer
Gershman 11 Carl Gershman, President of the National Endowment for Democracy At the Presentation of the Ion Ratiu Democracy Award to Nabeel Rajab of Bahrain The Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington, D.C. December 1, 2011
I want to begin by... its full potential.
Opposition leaders are urging the US to help
Al-Ekri et. al. 10Abdul Nabi Al-Ekri President Bahrain Transparency Society, Essa AlGhayeb Deputy Secretary General Bahrain Human Rights Society, Mohammed Al-Maskati President Bahrain Youth Society for Human Rights, Nabeel Rajab President Bahrain Center for Human Rights, Ghada Jamshir President Women's Petition Committee. “ Open letter to Hillary Clinton on eve of political dialogue in Bahrain” Manama, 30 November 2010, Bahrain Center for Human Rights, accessed 1/6/12 at http://www.bahrainrights.org/en/node/3628
When the United States... resolve the situation.
Even if we fail- action is key to improve Bahrain’s perception of the US
Slackman 11 Michael, [New York Times] 2/21/2011, “Dim view of U.S. Stance on Bahrain Shiites is Described” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/22/world/middleeast/22bahrain.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all
MANAMA, Bahrain — The... wounded many more
Aid now to Morocco
PR Newswire 12-23 2011. http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/congress-president-approve-extending-us-aid-for-morocco-reforms-to-western-sahara-advance-us-policy-backing-moroccan-autonomy-solution-136156558.html
Congress has approved... in the country.
The government won’t block
Alhasan 12/6 Hasan Tariq Alhasan, political analyst, 12-6-2011, “Taxation: Bahrain's alternative path to political reform,” openDemocracy,
The kingdom will... to further democracy.