General Actions:
Lee-Manov
Last modified by Administrator on 2012/10/17 22:24
Affirmative
US needs to take the lead on Libyan reconstruction—that rebuilds US image throughout the region—ceding leadership to others undermines good will
Paul Wolfowitz 11-3, former United States Ambassador to Indonesia, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, President of the World Bank, and former dean of the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University. He is currently a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, “America's Opportunity in Libya”,
Libya is the key test case
Ghitis 11 (World Politics Review Contributing Editor, 8/25, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/9882/world-citizen-libya-emerges-as-major-test-of-western-u-s-influence)
Governance assistance strengthens the TNC and builds credibility
Engel 11/2 (Former Research Assistant-The Washington Institute & Beirut-based analyst who recently traveled across Libya, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3417)
Aid now, but not for governance
Christopher M. Blanchard 12-8, analyst in Middle Eastern Affairs at CRS, “Libya: Transition and U.S. Policy”, https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33142.pdf
But it doesn’t solve leadership – we’re deferring to other actors
WSJ, 12/28
(“MIA on the Shores of Tripoli”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204879004577110292563937610.html
Credibility garnered from transitions solves expansionism
Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf
Causes regional war and miscalc
Marc Lynch 11, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, “Upheaval: U.S. Policy Toward Iran in a Changing Middle East”, June, http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Upheaval_Lynch_2.pdf
Goes nuclear
James A. Russell, Senior Lecturer, National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, ‘9 (Spring) “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” IFRI, Proliferation Papers, #26, http://www.ifri.org/downloads/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf
The possibility of miscalculation is already built into the system – US credibility is the only way to solve
Herbert I. London 10, President Emeritus of Hudson Institute, “The Coming Crisis in the Middle East”, June 23, http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=7101&pubType=HI_Opeds
Libyans have called for US assistance – backlash is a myth created by western academics to defend isolationism
Hamid 10/1
Shadi Hamid, 10/1/11, What Obama and American Liberals Don’t Understand About the Arab Spring, http://www.tnr.com/article/environment-energy/95538/arab-spring-obama-realism-democracy-neoconservatives-mubarak?page=0,0
The aff transitions to an ideational model of US engagement – it’s fundamentally distinct from past autocracy promotion
Peter Fettner 11, prof and PhD candidate in philosophy at Temple, published writer and researcher on US foreign policy, (writing under the pseudonym Byron), “Investigative Analysis: Soft Power in the Middle East – Reforming American Foreign Policy”, August 26, http://www.presstorm.com/2011/08/soft-power-in-the-middle-east-reforming-american-foreign-policy/
Lack of NTC transparency will escalate to civil war between militias
Allen, 1/25
(Editor-Dem Digest, Iraq 2004, Libya 2012?, http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2012/01/iraq-2004-libya-2012/)
Militias fuel a regional arms explosion
Waddington 12/19/11
I'm currently pursuing a PhD through the University of Johannesburg. My thesis examines the role of resource scarcity, specifically water, in shaping normative approaches to contemporary and future warfare. I completed an MA at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, examining the potential role(s) of private military and security contractors in peacekeeping activities. I taught various business ethics related courses for the School of Management Studies at UKZN from 2005 to 2011,
Weapons dispersal from Libya = Taliban success
Drweiga 12/6/11
http://www.aviationtoday.com/rw/training/military/Libyas-MANPADs-Legacy_75305.html
Andrew Drwiega is a senior defence journalist with a particular focus on military rotorcraft. He was the editor of Defence Helicopter for seven years. Andrew has reported on attachment from Iraq three times (the latest of which was with a US Marine Corps MV-22 squadron), and twice with British forces in Afghanistan (Kandahar and Camp Bastion) as well as from numerous NATO and British exercises.
India/Pakistan nuclear war and extinction
Foust 8/27/9
http://www.registan.net/index.php/2009/08/27/the-case-for-afghanistan-strategic-considerations/
While living in Kazakhstan in 2003, Joshua began a torrid love affair with Central Asia that hasn’t yet petered out. In real life he’s spent the vast majority of his adult life doing defense and intelligence consulting. In addition to writing for Registan.net, Joshua is a fellow at the American Security Project. He is also a columnist for PBS Need to Know. Joshua is a regular contributor to other national and international publications, where he discusses energy policy, military policy, and the cultural components of warfare. His writing has appeared in The Atlantic, The New York Times, Reuters, The Christian Science Monitor, The Columbia Journalism Review, and World Politics Review. Joshua is: a native speaker of English, decent at French, knows just enough street Russian to get around a market and the mashrutkas, and is learning Farsi at an abysmal pace when not consumed with work or writing
Militias prevent oil sector recovery – only the plan offsets the impact of a shock
UPI 1-25, “Libya boosts oil output but dangers lurk”, http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2012/01/25/Libya-boosts-oil-output-but-dangers-lurk/UPI-28071327525246/
Kazakhstan shocks coming
Levine 12/22/11
http://oilandglory.foreignpolicy.com/category/wordpress_tag/libya
uthor Steve LeVine is a contributing editor at Foreign Policy, a Schwartz Fellow at the New America Foundation, and author of The Oil and the Glory, a history of oil told through the 1990s-2000s oil rush on the Caspian Sea. He is also an adjunct professor at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, where he teaches energy and security in the Security Studies Program. LeVine, also the author of Putin's Labyrinth, a profile of Russia through the lives and deaths of six Russians, is a former chief foreign affairs writer for BusinessWeek and Central Asia and Caucasus correspondent for the Wall Street Journal, based in Almaty and Baku. He previously covered the same region for the New York Times and Newsweek. From 1988-1991, he was Pakistan-Afghanistan correspondent for Newsweek. From 1985-1988, he was Manila correspondent for Newsday.
Collapses the global economy
Warner 1/5/12
Jeremy Warner, assistant editor of The Daily Telegraph, is one of Britain's leading business and economics commentators. A serial winner of awards, he has also been honoured for an "outstanding contribution in defence of freedom of the media" by the Society of Editors for his refusal to reveal sources to Government inspectors. He is @jeremywarneruk on Twitter.
Extinction
Kemp 10
Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center, served in the White House under Ronald Reagan, special assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs on the National Security Council Staff, Former Director, Middle East Arms Control Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2010, The East Moves West: India, China, and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, p. 233-4
Best studies prove growth solves conflict
Jedidiah Royal 10, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, “Economic Integration, Economic Signalling And The Problem Of Economic Crises”, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215
Technical assistance gives the NTC the means to disarm militias
ICG 12-14, international crisis group – independent non-profit NGO, “holding libya together: security challenges after qadhafi”, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/North%20Africa/115%20Holding%20Libya%20Together%20--%20Security%20Challenges%20after%20Qadhafi.pdf
The United States federal government should substantially increase its democratic governance support for Libya.