Advantage 1: AQAP
1. the US is committed to military approaches to against AQAP in the SQ – these backfire, producing greater recruiting pools for terrorism.
Johnsen 10 (Gregory D., a former Fulbright fellow in Yemen, is currently a Ph.D. candidate in Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, “Ignoring Yemen at Our Peril,” Foreign Policy, October 31, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/10/31/ignoring_yemen_at_our_peril?page=0,1)
US commitment to democracy assistance in Yemen will dry up the AQAP recruitment pool – this is key to prevent attacks on the US
Green 11 (Daniel, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen,” Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/.
Now is a key opportunity for the US to win the hearts and minds of the Yemeni people
Green 11 (Daniel, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, focusing on Yemen, al-Qaeda, counterinsurgency, and stability operations, “The American Moment in Yemen,” Fikra Forum, April 18, http://fikraforum.org/2011/04/the-american-moment-in-yemen/.)
Power transition in Yemen is Immediate. Saleh is stepping down to allow for elections early, but the opposition parties will continue to protest.
CNN 9/12/11 [http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/09/12/yemen.saleh.power.transfer/index.html?hpt=hp_t1, Yemen president authorizes deputy to negotiate power transfer, Journalist Hakim Almasmari and CNN's Mohammed Jamjoom contributed to this report.]
the US is committed to military approaches to against AQAP in the SQ – these backfire, producing greater recruiting pools for terrorism.
Johnsen 10 (Gregory D., a former Fulbright fellow in Yemen, is currently a Ph.D. candidate in Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, “Ignoring Yemen at Our Peril,” Foreign Policy, October 31, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/10/31/ignoring_yemen_at_our_peril?page=0,1)
AQAP will attack the US
Boucek 2011
[Dr. Christopher, Associate, Middle East Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Written Testimony Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs Washington, D.C. July 19, 2011, http://foreign.senate.gov/hearings/hearing/?id=6dfc834d-5056-a032-5221-41d3cf94e791]
Al-Qaeda can get nukes and they’ll use them
Arbuckle 8 (Larry J. Arbuckle, Lieutenant, United States Navy, June 2008, “THE DETERRENCE OF NUCLEAR TERRORISM THROUGH AN ATTRIBUTION CAPABILITY,” http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2008/Jun/08Jun_Arbuckle.pdf)
The impact is extinction
Sid-Ahmed ‘4
(Mohamed, Managing Editor for Al-Ahali, “Extinction!” August 26-September 1, Issue no. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm)
Advantage 2: Leadership
1. US Middle East leadership is in decline and Zero Sum with Iran – supporting transitions within Yemen is key.
Etzioni ’11 professor of international relations at George Washington University
Amitai, “Shifting Sands”, The Journal of International Security Affairs, www.securityaffairs.org/issues/2011/20/etzioni.php, CMR]
Iranian Hegemony causes numerous conflicts and arms races in the Middle East
Charbel 10 (Bechara Nassar, taught @ American University @Beruit, Middle East Online, http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/opinion/?id=39390, AD 7/7/11) AV
If Iran develops a nuclear weapon it will use it against Israel or arm a terrorist organization.
Gardiner, director of the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom.07
(Nile, “Iran’s act of war” http://www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ed032707b.cfm)
Even if Iran doesn’t strike; Israel will preemptively strike if it doesn’t trust the US leadership to prevent Iranian Proliferation.
Ritter in 6
Scott, Former Chief UN Weapons Inspector for Iraq, Target Iran, pg. 145-146
The impact is extinction
Bosco 6 (David, Senior Editor at Foreign Policy Magazine, “Could This Be the Start of World War III?” http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/latimes/access/1081680701.html?dids=1081680701:1081680701&FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&type=current&date=Jul+23%2C+2006&author=David+Bosco&pub=Los+Angeles+Times&edition=&startpage=M.1&desc=ARMAGEDDON, AD 7/7/11)
China and Russia will intervene; escalates to nuclear world war.
Abid Ullah Jan 2006 “Why American will Reap in Iran What It Doesn’t Expect”, Posted February 20, http://mathaba.net/0_index.shtml?x=528456>
Middle East conflict will lead to global nuclear war.
Steinbach 2002 (John, Hiroshima/Nagasaki Peace Committee, March, “Israel Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Threat to Peace”, http://www.global research.ca/articles/STE203A.html)
Plan: The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its democracy assistance to Yemen by supporting a base for democratic transition through assistance for local governance, anti-corruption, and economic reform as per the recommendation of Greenfield.
[no tag]
Greenfield, program officer with the Middle East and North Africa division at the Center for International Private Enterprise, and travels frequently to Yemen, the Gulf, and throughout the region, 10
[Danya, | January 14, 2010, Sustainable Development Is Possible in Yemen, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/01/sustainable_development_yemen.html]
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