1-US-Israeli relations are stable now
Bloomfield 9-13-11
[Douglas, “Ex-Mossad Chief: US-Israel Cooperation ‘Never Better’”, The Jewish Week, http://www.thejewishweek.com/blogs/political_insider/ex_mossad_chief_us_israel_cooperation_never_better]
Military, intelligence and...president as anti-Israel?
2-But even with this intervention, relations can still be fractured – ideological barriers mean that Israel can never accept democratization as anything but a threat to their security
Waxman ‘11
[Dov, associate professor in political science at Baruch College and the Graduate Center of the City University of New York “Israel’s Demophobia”, Foreign Policy, Februrary 18, accessed online http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/18/israel_s_demophobia]
Israeli antipathy towards...them that chance.
3- Increased Israeli threat perception will cause nuclear disclosure.
Steinberg 1998
[Gerald, professor of political science at Bar Ilan University, Israel, “Israel and the United States: Can the Special Relationship survive the new strategic environment”, Middle East Review of International Affairs, vol 2 no 4, December, http://faculty.biu.ac.il/~steing/arms/israel&us.htm]
The changes in...overt second-strike deterrent.
4-And, Israeli disclosure leads to Iranian nuclearization
Adamsky 2011
[Dima, Assistant Professor at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy, and Strategy, Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya, “The Morning After in Israel”, Foreign Affairs 90.2, March/April]
Assuming that Iranian...of Israeli deterrence.
5-Nuclear Disclosure would massively increase the risk of nuclear war
Joshi 2000
[Sharad, assistant professor in the Graduate School of International Policy & Management (GSIPM) at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. His research involves various facets of international security studies, especially terrorism, insurgency, conflict, and nuclear proliferation matters in South Asia. He joined the Monterey Institute as a postdoctoral fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) from Sept. 2006 to Oct. 2008. Dr. Joshi has also served as a research associate at CNS and the institute's Monterey Terrorism Research & Education Program. He holds a PhD from the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, University of Pittsburgh., New Delhi, India “Israel’s nuclear policy: a cost-benefit analysis”, Strategic Analysis: A monthly journal of the IDSA, March, vol xxii no 12, http://www.ciaonet.org/olj/sa/sa_00jos01.html]
The introduction of ...used increases drastically.