Observation One: The Status Quo
The US has been silent on Bahrain and refused to engage the opposition—this guarantees eventual meltdown
ULRICHSEN 2011 (Kristian Coates Ulrichsen is a research fellow at the London School of Economics, “Gulf States: studious silence falls on Arab Spring,” Open Democracy, April 25, http://www.opendemocracy.net/kristian-coates-ulrichsen/gulf-states-studious-silence-falls-on-arab-spring...
The choice to suppress demonstrations rather than engage...reform, the next explosion could be greater still.
Bahraini opposition groups are pressuring the US to withdraw the Fifth Fleet now but there’s no alternative
DIETZ 2011 (David, “Should the US Reconsider its Relationship with Bahrain?” The Mideaster, April 21, http://themideaster.com/2011/04/21/should-the-us-reconsider-its-relationship-with-bahrain/)
Matar Ebrahim Matar, a leader of the opposition ... military presence are more broadly distributed.
Advantage One: Democracy
Democracy is receding worldwide – new studies show that democracy is at its lowest point in decades
KURLANTZICK 2011 (Joshua Kurlantzick is Fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, “New Republic: Optimism Spells Democracy's Decline,” NPR, May 31, http://www.npr.org/2011/05/31/136812788/new-republic-optimism-spells-democracys-decline)
As the revolt that started this past winter in Tunisia ... of their own internal human rights abuses.
Middle East war goes Global
London 10 (Herbert I. London, President of the Hudson Institute, a New York University based political think tank, and professor of Humanities at New York University, Hudson New York, 6/28/10, http://www.hudson-ny.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east)
The coming storm in the Middle East is gaining momentum....if one, falls, the tent collapses.
Democracy key to peace in the Middle East
Kirkup 11 (James Kirkup, Democracy is route to peace in Middle East, says David Cameron, The Telegraph, Feb 21, 2011, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/8339054/Democracy-is-route-to-peace-in-Middle-East-says-David-Cameron.html)
Freedom and democracy are the best way to ....free press and healthy political parties.
Advtantage two: Human rights
Human rights abuses in Bahrain continue while the U.S. remains silent. US must speak against Human Rights abuses in Bahrain or risk further instability and democratic breakdown
Human Rights First 2011 (is a nonprofit, nonpartisan human rights organization based in New York City and Washington, D.C., September 23, 2011, http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/2011/09/23/united-states-government-urged-to-break-the-silence-on-bahrain-abuses/)
Washington, DC –The United States Government must ...Today, this administration needs to get on the right side of history in Bahrain.”
Bahrain cries for intervention but falling on U.S. deaf ears
The Christian Science Monitor 2011
(Kristen Chick, The Christian Science Monitor, The CSM is a newspaper that covers international and United States current events, April 14, 2011 Thursday, Why US silence on Bahrain's crackdown could backfire; For the fourth time in two weeks, a detainee died in police custody. Witnesses say his body, like the others, bore signs of abuse..http://www.lexisnexis.com.www.whitelib.emporia.edu/lnacui2api/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T12866436654&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T12866431067&cisb=22_T12866436656&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=7945&docNo=3)
As Bahrain's government intensifies its campaign to crush dissent..."Where is the world? Why are they silent?"
Just expressing US discontent with human rights abuses in Bahrain are not enough – waving our finger won’t cut it we must act now
Watertown Daily Times 2011(Watertown Daily Times, a daily newspaper published in Watertown, New York. It provides coverage of Jefferson County, Lewis County, and St. Lawrence County, Monday May 16th, 2011, Bahrain Abuses U.S. should insist ally respects human rights, http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20110516/OPINION01/305169961/ )
Human rights activists appeared at a congressional...should take a stand consistent with its principles
And, dehumanization justifies total exclusion, making all their impacts inevitable. Murder, rape, torture & genocide are not acceptable
Maiese, 3
[Michelle, July, “Dehumanization,” Beyond Intractability, http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/dehumanization/, acc. 10-31-09, JT]
Dehumanization is a psychological process ...accepted norms of behavior regarding one's fellow man seem reasonable, or even necessary.
Advantage Three: Naval Power
Democracy assistance is critical to maintain the fleet—failure to encourage dialogue will force withdrawal which collapses American military power and deterrence
STIMSON CENTER 2011 (The Henry L. Stimson Center is a nonprofit, nonpartisan institution devoted to enhancing international peace and security through a unique combination of rigorous analysis and outreach, “Anchors Away: The future of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain,” July 21, http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/the-us-fifth-fleet-in-bahrain/)
The home base of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet ....scenarios from materializing.
The plan is critical to engage opposition groups and maintain support for US naval presence in Bahrain
COOLEY AND NEXON 2011 (Alexander, Assoc Prof Poli Sci at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies; Daniel, Assoc Prof School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#)
It is time for U.S. officials to reconsider their...forced to scramble after it is under way.
Scenario One: the Gulf
Despite opposition to US power there’s no alternative—no one else can guarantee Middle Eastern stability in the short term, even if long-term withdrawal is inevitable
FREEMAN 2011 (Chas, Ambassador Freeman is a retired U.S. Foreign Service officer and president emeritus of the Middle East Policy Council, “The Arab Reawakening: Strategic Implications,” Middle East Policy, Summer, Lexis)
These changes are occurring as the United States ... the corporate arena than in foreign policy.
Naval presence is key to deter Iran
Goure and Grant 9 (Dr. Daniel Goure, Vice President with the Lexington Institute, a nonprofit public-policy research organization, was a member of the 2001 Department of Defense Transition Team, erved as a senior analyst on national security and defense issues with the Center for Naval Analyses, Science Applications International Corporation, SRS Technologies, R&D Associates and System Planning Corporation, was the Deputy Director, International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Dr. Rebecca Grant, Director of the General Billy Mitchell Institute for Airpower Studies at the Air Force Association, report is under consideration for publication in the Naval War College Review, “U.S. Naval Options for Influencing Iran,” April 2009) http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/library/resources/documents/Defense/us-naval-options.pdf
Engaging Iran is both a difficult and complex endeavor....region and deterring Iranian aggression.
Left unchecked, Iranian regional aggression causes nuclear war
Ben-Meir 7 (Alon Ben-Meir professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU, Realpolitik: Ending Iran’s defiance, 2007, http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2007/02/06/Realpolitik-Ending-Irans-defiance/UPI-69491170778058/)
Feeling emboldened and unrestrained... of the severe consequences of not halting its nuclear program.
Scenario Two: Global Sea Power
The perception of American bias towards Bahrain’s government feeds a global movement against US basing—the United States must find a middle ground in supporting the opposition or risk losing military bases in Bahrain and worldwide
COOLEY AND NEXON 2011 (Alexander, Assoc Prof Poli Sci at Barnard College and member of Colombia University’s Institute for War and Peace Studies; Daniel, Assoc Prof School of Foreign Service and Department of Government at Georgetown, “Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases,” Foreign Affairs, April 5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=show#)
The use of force and foreign troops against peaceful ....its autocratic friends under the bus.
Forward deployed naval power is critical to overall US capabilities—this allows us to deter and defeat any challenger and contain every impact
ENGLAND, JONES, AND CLARK 2011 (Gordon England is a former secretary of the Navy. General James Jones is a former commandant of the Marine Corps. Admiral Vern Clark is a former chief of naval operations; “The Necessity of U.S. Naval Power,” July 11, http://gcaptain.com/necessity-u-s-naval-power?27784)
The future security environment underscores two broad ...what we will need to meet the challenges of the future.
Overseas basing key to US power – laundry list of impacts
Kramer and Nelson 5 (Franklin D. Kramer, Chairman of the Atlantic Council, C. Richard Nelson, Atlantic Council, “Global Futures and Implications for U.S. Basing,” 6/1/5) http://www.acus.org/publication/global-futures-and-implications-us-basing
U.S. overseas bases serve as both substance ...U.S. power in a variety of ways
Can’t solve the root cause of war – democracy & deterrence empirically reduce its likelihood and escalation
Moore 4 – Dir. Center for Security Law @ University of Virginia, 7-time Presidential appointee, & Honorary Editor of the American Journal of International Law, Solving the War Puzzle: Beyond the Democratic Peace, John Norton Moore, pages 41-2.
If this “theory of government failure,” and ....dramatically increased or decreased?
