TEXT: The United States federal government should expand its civil military support element throughout Yemen to provide local governance assistance.
Advantage 1 – Groupthink
Interagency cooperation between USAID and the DOD is needed – CMSE in Yemen provides the backdrop.
Kotlow 3/31/11 - Visiting Senior Service College Fellow at The Washington Institute. Former Defense and Army Attache at the U.S. Embassy in Yemen and Lebanon [Colonel Kazimierz "Kaz" Kotlow (Former political/military advisor to the Multinational Force (MNF) Commander in Iraq.) “Countering Extremism in Yemen: Beyond Interagency Cooperation,” Small Wars Journal, March 31, 2011]
Extremism, especially violent extremism, is a clear threat to the national security of the United Sta…. and should, expect their representatives to work directly with, and in support, of their interagency partners in a seamless manner. That expectation can help make this approach more systemic and less personality dependent.
Yemen will provide a model for other agency decisions.
Mitchell 8/1/11 - Foreign Service Officer with USAID. Assigned to a tour in Yemen (80s) [Robert E. Mitchell, “Yemen: Testing a New Coordinated Approach to Preventive Counterinsurgency,” Small Wars Journal, August 1, 2011]
An American-designed strategy attempts to link counterinsurgency and… where American anti-terrorism programs are not yet active.
Interagency cooperation key to prevent narrow institutional thinking – otherwise known as groupthink
Shemella 06 - Program Manager for Combating Terrorism @ The Center for Civil-Military Relations, Naval Postgraduate School [PAUL SHEMELLA, “Interagency Coordination: The Other Side of CIMIC,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 17, No. 4, 449–457, December 2006
Decision-makers can create interagency ‘task forces’, giving them…. timely and reliable interagency decisions their governments require for success. Pg. 452-456
Groupthink leads to overreliance on combat operations
Howard 04 – Major in the British Army [Major James R. Howard, “Preparing for War, Stumbling to Peace: Planning for Post-conflict Operations in Iraq,” A Monograph, pg. smallwarsjournal.com/documents/howard.pdf]
The new doctrine of Rapid, Decisive Operations… interventionist and nation building operations with disdain.80 pg. 23-24
That makes wars inevitable – Crises will escalate
Schneider 03 – Director, U.S. Air Force Counterproliferation Center, Maxwell Air Force Base [Barry R. Schneider, “Deterring International Rivals From War and Escalation,” Know Thy Enemy: Profiles of Adversary Leaders and Their Strategic Cultures, Edited By: Barry R. Schneider and Jerrold M. Post, July 2003 (Second edition)]
Decisions taken during periods… effectiveness and morality of their decisions. Pg. 8-9
Nuclear war absent the AFF
Chossudovsky 10 - Professor of Economics @ University of Ottawa [Michel Chossudovsky (Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), “Preparing for World War III, Targeting Iran,” Global Research, August 1, 2010, pg. http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?aid=20403&context=va]
Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads….. Venezuela and Cuba are also the object of US threats.
CMSE solves – 2 reasons
1. It unifies agencies through dialogue and experience
Lightsey 10 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr.,“PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM,” Special Warfare | May-June 2010 (Vol. 23, Issue 3) Pg. http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888
In ongoing irregular conflicts… reaching out to those neighboring regions.
2. Only the CMSE can change the structure of military decisions.
Shemella 06 - Program Manager for Combating Terrorism @ The Center for Civil-Military Relations, Naval Postgraduate School [PAUL SHEMELLA, “Interagency Coordination: The Other Side of CIMIC,” Small Wars and Insurgencies, Vol. 17, No. 4, 449–457, December 2006
Although CIMIC has become a term of art…. constructive cooperation. Pg. 449-451
Advantage 2 – Civil War
Saleh’s departure was irrelevant – tribal conflicts risk civil war.
Al-Tamimi 12/27 [Aymen Jawad Al-Tamimi, student @ Oxford U. and intern at the Middle East Forum, 12/27/2011 http://spectator.org/archives/2011/12/27/the-coming-collapse-of-yemen The American Spectator is a peer-reviewed/edited news forum]
Recently, Tawakkol Karman -- a member of the Islah party in Yemen,… full-blown collapse of the country over the next year.
The new political environment creates a unique power vacuum that intensifies civil conflict.
Byman 11 [Daniel Byman is a professor in the security studies program at Georgetown University and the research director of the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution. He is the author of A High Price: The Triumphs and Failures of Israeli Counterterrorism., 3/22/2011, http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2011/03/whats_next_for_yemen.2.html]
As U.S. missiles slam into Libya, Saudi troops put down demonstrations in Bahrain…. patronage systems Saleh established all come up for grabs.
*US silence radicalizes the opposition – US must actively support good governance
Naouss 4/1/11 – Research Associate @ United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Communications Coordinator @ Carnegie Middle East Center. [Robert Naouss (Masters in history and international relations from 'Université Saint Joseph') “How Reluctance in Libya and Yemen Bolsters Al-Qaeda,” Policymic, April 2011, Pg. http://www.policymic.com/articles/how-reluctance-in-libya-and-yemen-bolsters-al-qaeda]
The present situation in Yemen… super powers only when it suits them!
There’s no substitute for a US response – lack of action intensifies conflict.
Gundun 7/19/11 - U.S. spokesperson for Yemen’s Coordinating Council for the Youth Revolution of Change (CCYRC). [James Gundun, “West, Saleh Unite Against Yemen’s Transnational Council,” The Trench, July 19, 2011, pg. http://hadalzone.blogspot.com/2011/07/west-saleh-unite-against-yemens.html]
Once again Washington has tasked London to… increase U.S. military influence in Yemen.
Yemen civil war triggers Iran-Saudi war
AFP 10 [American Foreign Policy, “Yemen Then and Now: Lessons from the North Yemen Civil War,” 28 March 2010, pg. http://afpprinceton.com/tag/iran/]
The Houthis, a rebel group in northern Yemen… understand that forces greater than religion are at play.
Civil war pulls in Saudi Arabia and Iran – Local dispute settlement’s key
Phillips 11 - Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs @ Heritage Foundation [James Phillips, “What the President Must Do About Yemen,” The Heritage Foundation, WebMemo #3204, March 24, 2011, pg. http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/03/what-the-president-must-do-about-yemen]
Engage the opposition. American diplomats… Yemen will become a failed state that AQAP can exploit.
Triggers Iran-Saudi military confrontation and arms race – Saudis will use Yemeni instability as justification
WSJ 4/16/11 (“The New Cold War.” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704116404576262744106483816.html.)
"The cold war is a reality," says one senior Saudi official… Yemeni protests in that context.
Iran nuclearization spurs Mideast nuclear war
Krepinevich 7/14/11 (Andrew, president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. “Panetta’s challenge: China’s and Iran’s weapons programs.” Washington Post, July 14, 2011. http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/panettas-challenge-chinas-and-irans-weapons-programs/2011/07/12/gIQAinvxEI_story.html.)
If Iran becomes a nuclear… a “limited” nuclear war in the Middle East.
Oil prices will skyrocket – 2 reasons
First is the South and demand side - Yemen is a chokepoint for Saudi shipments.
Markman 4/5/11 - Journalist and Portfolio manager for The Markman Portfolios [Jon D. Markman, “Rising Oil Prices: Is Yemen Next?,” Seeking Alpha, April 5, 2011, pg. http://seekingalpha.com/article/261969-rising-oil-prices-is-yemen-next]
Going forward, however, the next culprit in this…. But also you have one more major oil exporter that is then not exporting.
Second is the North and supply side - Conflict will weaken Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province and destabilize production
STRATFOR 4/21/11 [“Islamist Militancy in a Pre- and Post-Saleh Yemen,” April 21, 2011 | 0859 GMT, pg. http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110420-islamist-militancy-pre-and-post-saleh-yemen]
The real heavyweight in Yemen is Saudi Arabia…. channeling jihadist efforts toward the al-Houthi threat.
That risks the mother of all oil shocks – Production outages could last for years
Atuanya 3/10/11 – Consultant geologist and geophysicist with about 3 decades of activity in the energy sector [Dennis U. Atuanya (B.Sc. Hons (Geology), M.Sc. (Geophysics)), “Global Crude Oil Prices: The Lingering Uncertainty,” Seeking Alpha, March 10, 2011, pg. http://seekingalpha.com/article/257535-global-crude-oil-prices-the-lingering-uncertainty]
In terms of global reserves, the MENA region….. price shock, possibly the "mother of all."
Disruption will cause oil prices to go to $300
Babej 3/29/11 - Contributor to Forbes [Marc E. Babej, “A Saudi Oil Supply Disruption-The Ultimate Marketing Crisis Scenario,” Forbes, 3/29/2011 @ 01:48PM |pg. http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcbabej/2011/03/29/a-saudi-oil-supply-disruption-the-ultimate-marketing-crisis-scenario/]
And still: in 2011, the term “unlikely” doesn’t quite carry the weight it used… containing oil derivatives.
Global energy wars with China & expanded coal use
King 08 – Researcher @ Center for New American Security [Neil King, Jr. (Columnist for the Wall Street Journal), “Peak Oil: A Survey of Security Concerns,” CNAS Energy Security Visionaries Series, Center for New American Security, JULY 2008, pg. www.aspousa.org/aspousa4/.../_CNAS_King_Peak_Oil_WorkingPaper.pdf]
Many commentators in the United States… the wise steps and avoid the rash ones. Pg. 13-15
*AND, US-China war risks World War III
Starke 09 – Colonel in the US Army [Colonel Timothy J. Starke, “China’s Military and Space Transformation: Implications for U.S. and Northeast-Asia,” Strategy Research Project, 24-03-2009, pg. http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA500675&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf]
Prospects of violent conflict between the United… of China’s true intentions. Pg.
*This impact alone o/w their DAs
Klare 08 – Professor of Peace and World Security Studies @ Hampshire College [Michael Klare, “Oil, War and Geopolitics: the struggle over what remains,” Ralph Miliband lecture in the programme for 2007/2008, Wednesday 9 January 2008 pg. www2.lse.ac.uk/publicEvents/pdf/20080109_Klare.pdf]
What worries me about all of this is not… and I look forward to your comments and questions
A decline in oil production will cause countries to scramble for resources in the Arctic – it’ll be a US-Russia nuclear war
Matthews 09 [Owen Matthews, “The coldest war: Russia and U.S. face off over Arctic resources,” Daily Mail, Last updated at 10:08 AM on 19th May 2009, pg. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1184291/The-coldest-war-Russia-U-S-face-Arctic-resources.html]
The year is 2020, and, from the Middle East to Nigeria,…. shields and destroy entire cities.
Extinction
Starr 10 - Director of Clinical Laboratory Science Program @ University of Missouri [Steven Starr (Senior scientist @ Physicians for Social Responsibility.), “The climatic consequences of nuclear war” | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 12 March 2010, Pg. http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/op-eds/the-climatic-consequences-of-nuclear-war]
This isn't a question to be avoided… global famine that could kill one billion people
AND, expanded coal use risks extinction
Hansen 09 - Director of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies [James Hansen (Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences @ Columbia University and Ph.D. in Physics from the University of Iowa), “Coal-fired power stations are death factories. Close them,” The Observer, Sunday 15 February 2009, pg. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/15/james-hansen-power-plants-coal]
A year ago, I wrote to Gordon Brown asking… contribution to the number that would be committed to extinction if carbon dioxide rose another 100 ppm.
CMSE’s assistance prevents civil war – Ethiopia proves
Lightsey 10 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr.,“PERSISTENT ENGAGEMENT: Civil Military Support Elements [CMSE] Operating in CENTCOM,” Special Warfare | May-June 2010 (Vol. 23, Issue 3) Pg. http://afpakwar.com/blog/archives/6888
Nonkinetic strategy - In a 2009 article in Foreign Affairs…. U.S. government will do the right thing at the right time.
CMSE resolves the underlying grievances that will facilitate conflict escalation
Walsh 10 - Civil affairs team leader in the Pacific Command supporting 97th Civil Affairs Battalion (Airborne) [Captain Sean P. Walsh (deployed to Iraq in 2007-2008 as a member of the 2d Stryker Cavalry Regiment and served as a rifle platoon leader and civil military planner.), “Divorce Counseling: Civil Affairs Proponency under a New Support Paradigm,” MILITARY REVIEW, November-December 2010]
Described by the Army as “gun-toting diplomats,” CA units… insurgency an irrelevant mode of pursuing a grievance.”4 pg. 71
We provide a micro-scale diplomatic model that solves
Lightsey 08 – Major assigned to the JFK Special Warfare Center and School’s 1st Special Warfare Training Group. Combat tours include on to Qatar as commander of a CMSE that had elements across Pakistan, Tajikistan and Yemen. [Major Ross F. Lightsey Sr., “Civil Affairs Support to the Surge,” Special Warfare, March-April 2008, Volume 21 Issue 2]
DIME principle – Commanders… depressed areas and to jump-start local economies. Pg
