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Politics - SKFTA

SKFTA will pass – votes are coming around

Hooper 9-10 [Molly K., writer for The Hill, “Obama-backed trade pacts could be heavy lift for House GOP” http://thehill.com/homenews/house/180751-obama-backed-trade-pacts-could-be-heavy-lift-for-house-gop]

And anti-trade interest groups are poised to been sounding out lawmakers informally.

Capitals key.

Wharton 11 [Wharton School’s Online Business Journal – Editorial Post – including the Deupty Dean & Executive Director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Business School, U.S.-South Korea Trade Pact: A Turning Point for American Exports?, http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2671]

The Tea Party Factor During the fall election season, … economic and foreign policy for decades.

<Link to Aff>

Passage sparks global trade

Hill 07 (Christopher, US Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs assistant secretary, “The United States-South Korea FTA: The Foreign Policy Implications.”, 6-13, http://seoul.usembassy.gov/413_061407.html)

Fourth, and finally, the KORUS FTA will give …Republic of Korea’s increasingly positive role in the world.

FLIPS the aff & causes extinction

PANZNER  08  Faculty – New York Institute of Finance.  Specializes in Global Capital Markets.  MA Columbia

[Michael J. Panzner,  Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse, Revised and Updated Edition [Paperback], p. 137-138]

Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of finance and …Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.

T – Elections

Democracy assistance must be targeted towards electoral laws, presses and institutions

IFES (International Foundation for Electoral Systems), 2011, http://www.ifes.org/Content/Topics/Democracy-Assistance.aspx

Topic In Brief:

Democracy assistance can be defined as …to electoral laws, processes and institutions.

Democracy is defined by elections –it should be the focal point of our education about “democracy”

WRIGHT & ROGERS  09   profs, sociology and law, U Wisconsin

[Erik Olin Wright & Joel Rogers –- July 2009, American Society: How It Really Works, http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~wright/ContemporaryAmericanSociety/Chapter%2017%20--%20Voting%20--%20FINAL.pdf]

Elections are at the very core of democracy. Even if …careful examination of its electoral system and how it works.

T – Assistance

Assistance is financial support

USAID 11 [ADS Chapter 303 Grants and Cooperative Agreements to Non-Governmental Organizations,” 06/23/2011 Partial Revision, pg. http://www.usaid.gov/policy/ads/300/303.pdf]

assistance - Financial support to accomplish …under procurement laws and regulations. (Chapter 303, 304) pg. 1

Arabic CP

This CP uses the Arabic name for the Aff’s target country instead of the English name.

And, using the local name is a key symbolic gesture.

Bates, 2007 (Constance S., Associate Professor in the Department of Management and International Business at Florida International University, “As Business Globalizes, So Should Country Names”, Global Business Languages, Volume 9

Issue 1, pgs. 57-66)

It seems there is progress over the …respect for the residents of other countries.

And, rejecting the aff is key – using the proper name is vital to breaking down colonialism.

Kearns and Berg, 2002 (Robin A., Corresponding Editor of the New Zealand Geographer and Professor of Geography at the University of Auckland, Lawrence D. Professor at Okanagan University College, “Proclaiming Place: Towards a Geography of Place Name Pronounciation”, Social & Cultural Geography)

Indeed, in his survey of Hawaiian experience, Herman similarly notes that proposals …that underpin and reinforce neo-colonialism.

Block Evidence:

The net benefit outweighs any solvency deficit – the colonial strategy makes a nuclear confrontation with Russia and China inevitable – using imperialist logic to relate to the Middle East and North Africa sets up the possibility of escalation.

Saba, 8-22-2011 (Behrouz, analyst for New America Media, “Gaddafi Falls While the Arab Spring Continues to Bear Deadly Fruit”, http://newamericamedia.org/2011/08/gaddafi-falls-while-the-arab-spring-continues-to-bear-deadly-fruit.php)

New Colonialism’s Divisive Strategy In the aftermath of protests…generate wealth through robust manufacturing, service and agricultural sectors.

Making a conscious choice is key – using both doesn’t take a clear performative stance – which means it can’t undermine traditional narratives.

Kearns and Berg, 2002 (Robin A., Corresponding Editor of the New Zealand Geographer and Professor of Geography at the University of Auckland, Lawrence D. Professor at Okanagan University College, “Proclaiming Place: Towards a Geography of Place Name Pronounciation”, Social & Cultural Geography)

Before proceeding further, we now consider the processes involved in the otherwise …can be deployed to assert a politics of representation.

EU-NED CP

The CP solves better - EU-NED coop prevents backlash to US assistance

Gershman ‘6 – President of the National Endowment for Democracy [Carl Gershman, “The Backlash against Democracy Assistance,” Testimony to the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, Jun 8, 2006, pg. http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-remarks-and-presentations/060806]

The new repressive climate in certain states has in fact highlighted the benefits … assistance and also leverage additional resources.

Democracy cooperation stabilizes the Black Sea region – It’s a conduit for instability throughout Eurasia

Garber ‘8 - Deputy Assistant Secretary of State [Judy Garber, “Transatlantic Perspectives on Black Sea Region: U.S. seeks to promote cooperation among countries in the region,” Keynote Address at the Woodrow Wilson Center Conference, 10 June 2008, pg. http://www.america.gov/st/texttrans-english/2008/June/20080612162948eaifas0.3606836.html#ixzz1S5cj0Z00]

The Black Sea lies at a strategic crossroads of geography and … linking Europe with the Caspian basin, Central Asia, and the broader Middle East.

Orientalism Kritik

The aff’s orientalist discourse leads to genocide.

Pinar Batur, PhD @ UT-Austin – Prof. of Scociology @ Vassar, ‘7 [“The Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide,” in Handbook of the The Soiology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, eds. Vera and Feagin, p. 446-7]

At the turn of the 20th century, the “Terrible Turk” was the image …frequency. The 21st century opened up with genocide, in Darfur.

Vote Neg to reject their discourse.

BILGIN 2005 – PROF IR BIKENT UNIVERSITY

REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE, PAGE 7

From a critical perspective, thinking differently about …research could make on the subject of research (Wyn Jones 1999:148-50).

AT: Bahrain Fifth Fleet Advantage

There has already been a dialogue – it collapsed – the opposition and government are not cooperative.

Kinninmont, 2011.

(Jane Kinninmont is a Senior Research Fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House. 7-18-2011. “Beyond Bahrain’s Dialogue.” http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/18/after_bahrain_s_dialogue)

Al-Wefaq National Islamic Society, Bahrain's single largest political movement, yesterday …society is subject to significant intimidation today.

We won’t leave Bahrain, if we did we’d go somewhere else, and other military installations prevent your impacts

The Australian, 2011.

(Hugh Tomlinson. “US Fleet may quit troubled Bahrain.” 7-21-2011. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/us-fleet-may-quit-troubled-bahrain/story-e6frg6so-1226098580227)

Sources in Washington and the Gulf have confirmed a growing consensus …a crucial bulwark against Iranian influence in the region

Link goes the wrong direction. The aff’s regime change will mean the US gets booted.

Cooley and Nexon, 2011.

(Alexander and Daniel. 4-5-2011. ALEXANDER COOLEY is Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College and a member of Columbia University's Arnold A. Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies. DANIEL H. NEXON is Associate Professor in the School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government at Georgetown University. “Bahrain’s Base Politics.” Foreign Affiars. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67700/alexander-cooley-and-daniel-h-nexon/bahrains-base-politics?page=2)

On February 14 of this year, inspired by the movements in Tunisia and Egypt…"base politics" of Bahrain are part of a broader pattern.

We’d be fine – your ev assumes an old strategic model

Koplovsky, 2006.

(Michael. Deputy Chief of Mission @ U.S. Embassy Lusaka, Career Foreign Service Office. 10-23-2006. “Precipitating the Inevitable: the Surprisingly Benign Impact of Losing Basing Rights in Bahrain.” http://govwin.com/knowledge/ precipitating-inevitable-surprisingly-benign-impact/18387)

Large, permanent, forward U.S. bases (MOBs) are falling out of …or less constant U.S. deterrent and operational presence.26

Saudi Relations DA – Bahrain Link

Turn – Saudi Arabia -

Current US rhetoric on Bahrain concedes to Saudi interests – they won’t tolerate US-imposed democratic reform

Karasik 8/1/11 (Theodore, Director of Research and Development at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai and Beirut. “A Conversation with Dr. Thedore Karasik of INEGMA on the ‘Arab Spring’.” Saudi-US Relations Information Service, August 1, 2011. http://www.susris.com/2011/08/01/a-conversation-with-dr-theodore-karasik-of-inegma-on-the-arab-spring/.)

SUSRIS: Let’s talk about the trajectory of events in the Gulf. … Arab world will reform, but at their own pace and scope.

Saudis are especially committed to controlling Bahrain – US pressure for political reform angers the Saudis – it splits them on common interests like Iran

Pant 9/4/11 (Harsh, Reader in International Relations, Department of Defence Studies, King’s College London. “A new balance of power in the Middle East.” Business Standard, September 4, 2011. http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/harsh-v-pantnew-balancepower-inmiddle-east/447953/)

Saudia Arabia sent troops to Bahrain earlier …would only open the door to greater instability.

It drives Saudis to proliferate

Guzansky 8/1/11 (Yoel, research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. "TEHRAN TESTS SAUDIS' NERVE ON NUKES", LEXIS, SRM)

UNTIL recently it appeared that US security guarantees …reactors at a cost of more than $US300 billion.

Nuclear war.

Edelman et al 11 (Eric S., Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Andrew Krepinevich, President of the CSBA. Evan Montgomery, Research Fellow at the CSBA. “The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran: The Limits of Containment.” Foreign Affairs, January 1, 2011. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran.)

More important, emerging nuclear powers in the Middle East … potentially triggering a regional nuclear war.

Saudi Relations DA – Block Evidence

Even mild changes to the SQ would destroy US-Saudi relations – Saudis view Bahrain crisis as an existential threat

Ghazal 11 (Amal, Assistant professor of Middle Eastern History, Dalhousie University, “Underneath Bahrain's struggle for democracy lie long-running sectarian tensions, exacerbated by a fearful Saudi Arabia.,” http://www.themarknews.com/articles/4185-saudi-interests-stand-in-the-way-of-bahrain-s-democracy) atw

Saudi Arabia looks at Bahrain as a buffer …administration scape-goated Mubarak too quickly).

Saudi Arabia’s adopted a Brezhnev strategy for neighbors like Bahrain – US democracy promotion destroys the alliance – troops in Bahrain proves their commitment to preserving absolutism

Riedel 8/24/11 (Bruce, senior fellow in the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. “Brezhnev in the Hejaz.” The National Interest, September-October 2011. http://nationalinterest.org/article/brezhnev-the-hejaz-5733?page=show.)

As the end-of-an-era grim reaper approaches Saudi … become the guarantor of the counterrevolution.

Relations are recovering, but the wound’s fresh – the US must continue appeasing the Saudis

Hannah 11 (John, senior fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Bandar’s return.” Foreign Policy, April 22, 2011. http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/04/22/bandars_return.)

To minimize the risk that any of these … the effort will need to be sustained.

AT: Bahrain Iraq Advantage

US intervention can only hurt transitions

Bacevich, 2011.

(Andrew. Professor of history and IR at Boston University. 2-20-2011. “They’re doing it without us.” http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/20/opinion/la-oe-bacevich-war-20110220)

In Afghanistan, then Iraq and now, of course,…notwithstanding the wonders of computers, iPhones and social networking.

The US has no power and the GCC won’t allow intervention

Al-Tamini, 2011.

(Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi intern for the Middle East Forum; student at Brasenose College, Oxford University. 6-19-2011. “Bahrain: Can The U.S. Do Anything?” http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/06/bahrain_can_the_us_do_anything.html)

But here is the catch: Saudi Arabia, which is …events lies in the hands of the Saudis and the GCC.

Naval power declining – cuts, economy, and ship erosion.

HELPRIN  11     senior fellow at the Claremont Institute

[Mark Helprin, March 2, 2011.  The Decline of U.S. Naval Power, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704150604576166362512952294.html]

Last week, pirates attacked and executed four Americans … intermediate and short-range ballistic missiles—there are only 20.

Iran can't afford to block the Strait.

Reuters, 1 – 7  (Jonathon Saul and David Sheppard, “Iran unlikely to risk blocking Strait of Hormuz”, 2010, http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE6062W020100107)

Iran is unlikely to risk blocking or mining the Strait …seaborne oil trade, about 17 million barrels, passes daily.

It would be physically impossible to maintain a disruption.

Reuters, 1 – 7  (Jonathon Saul and David Sheppard, “Iran unlikely to risk blocking Strait of Hormuz”, 2010, http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE6062W020100107)

Many analysts believe that, if Iran retaliated, it would … meaningful period after hostilities began," it said in a study.

Iran won't risk the consequences. Blocking the strait guts international sympathy and invites US retaliation.

O’Neil ‘9  (William former official in the Office of the Sec. Def. and the Navy, International Security, “Costs and Difficulties of Blocking the Strait of Hormuz”, 33:3, Winter 08/09)

To begin, Talmadge should have put greater … adventurous or desperate of Iranian leaders.

Recent Events disprove---experts agree

Bloomberg 11, ‘Iraq, Kuwait Incident “Highly Unlikely” to Escalate’, Jan 11, 2011, http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2011/01/11/iraq-kuwait-incident-highly-unlikely-to-escalate/

Bloomberg reports that Iraq is investigating the … Risks Group said in a briefing note today.

Single individuals don’t control Iranian decisionmaking and even hardliners aren’t commited to conflict

Boroujerdi and Fine, 07  - Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program at Syracuse University AND graduate student in International Relations at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University  (Mehrzad and Todd, “A NUCLEAR IRAN: THE LEGAL IMPLICATIONS OF A PREEMPTIVE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY: IRANIAN NUCLEAR MIASMA”, 57 Syracuse L. Rev. 619, lexis)

First, it is a mistake to assume that the decision-… isolate the precise interests of individuals within these groupings. n13

Group decisionmaking dynamics prevent Iran from initiating war

Boroujerdi and Fine, 07  - Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Middle Eastern Studies Program at Syracuse University AND graduate student in International Relations at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University  (Mehrzad and Todd, “A NUCLEAR IRAN: THE LEGAL IMPLICATIONS OF A PREEMPTIVE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY: IRANIAN NUCLEAR MIASMA”, 57 Syracuse L. Rev. 619, lexis)

Even though Ahmadinejad uses foreign policy issues …a boldly offensive or miscalculated action less realistic.

Middle East war won’t escalate even if Israel used nuclear weapons

Hennigan 6  (Jim, Lawyer, The Beat, July 25 http://www.metrobeat.net/gbase/Expedite/Content?oid=oid%3A3946)

Israel may have gone “nuclear” over Hezbollah’s cross-border incursion …requires a conspiracy of events that Oliver Stone would envy.

1NC Cites
Politics

KORUS will pass – early October.
DONGA  9 – 26 – 11  
`US to submit bill to ratify FTA with Korea early next month`, http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?bicode=060000&biid=2011092668408

The U.S. is expected to submit a … will reaffirm the solid bilateral alliance. 

Capital is key – Obama has to use capital to keep all current controversies from stopping passage – key to the alliance
KIM  9 – 6 – 11  senior partner specializing in international trade at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP in Washington, D.C.
Sukhan Kim, Pushing the FTA to the finish line, http://koreajoongangdaily.joinsmsn.com/news/article/Article.aspx?aid=2941157

Notwithstanding … to finally get on with ratification of Korus FTA. 

Their increase will be controversial – Congress will mandate hearings and a justification
Wittes 08 – Senior fellow for Middle East Policy @ Brookings Institution w/ research emphasis on democracy in the Arab World[Tamara Cofman Wittes (Deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs @ U.S. Department of State), Freedom’s Unsteady March: America’s Role in Building Arab Democracy, 2008, pg. 150]

Finally, congressional understanding and patience … funders must be sensitive to and respectful of these needs. y

KORUS sustains US leadership in Asia
Wharton 11 [Wharton School’s Online Business Journal – Editorial Post – including the Deupty Dean & Executive Director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Business School, U.S.-South Korea Trade Pact: A Turning Point for American Exports?, http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2671]
 [U.S.-South Korea Trade Pact: A Turning Point for American Exports?, http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2671] What's more, the fate of the pact has national security implications, says Brian Pomper, a partner … has put his reputation on the line."

multiple scenarios for war
Goh 8 (Evelyn, Lecturer in International Relations in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the Univ of Oxford, International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, “Hierarchy and the role of the United States in the East Asian security order,” 2008 8(3):353-377, Oxford Journals Database)

This is the main structural dilemma: as long as the … not doing so would appear to be much worse. 

Topicality

A.  Democracy Assistance is that which DIRECTLY fosters democracy in a recipient country.
Lappin 10 – Visiting Scholar in the Faculty of Political Science @ University of Belgrade [Richard Lappin (PhD Candidate in the Centre for Peace Research and Security Studies @ University of Leuven, Belgium & Participated in over a dozen democracy assistance missions with the UN, EU, OSCE/ODIHR and Carter Center.)“Post-Conflict Democracy Assistance: A State of the Art’, Cahiers of the Centre for Peace Research & Strategic Studies, No.85, 2010]

Establishing the definitional clarity of democracy assistance …does not therefore include economic and social aid programmes.’174 pg. 33-35 

B.  Violation – the aff is indirect.  Only assistance that goes to the core of political contestation is topical – other forms like improving civil society, the atmosphere for democracy are indirect.  
CAROTHERS  03  Sr. Associate at Carnegie – general DA expert
[Thomas Carothers- June 2003, IS GRADUALISM POSSIBLE? Choosing a Strategy for Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/wp39.pdf]

INDIRECTLY PROMOTING DEMOCRACY
The second identifiable U.S. strategy for stimulating gradualist …of elections, even if they are not to Washington’s liking.

Saudi DA

Current US democracy rhetoric concedes to Saudi interests – they won’t tolerate US-imposed democratic reform
Karasik 8/1/11 (Theodore, Director of Research and Development at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai and Beirut. “A Conversation with Dr. Thedore Karasik of INEGMA on the ‘Arab Spring’.” Saudi-US Relations Information Service, August 1, 2011. http://www.susris.com/2011/08/01/a-conversation-with-dr-theodore-karasik-of-inegma-on-the-arab-spring/.)

 SUSRIS: Let’s talk about the trajectory of events in the Gulf…world will reform, but at their own pace and scope. 

Saudi Arabia supports Saleh – They think he is the only actor who can prevent a civil war and defeat al Qaeda
Lister 9/30/11 [Tim Lister, “Saleh returns to Yemen as al-Awlaki was killed,” CNN, updated 2:03 PM EST, Fri September 30, 2011, pg. http://www.cnn.com/2011/09/30/world/meast/analysis-yemen-saleh-awlaki/]

Anwar al-Awlaki was killed exactly one week after President …s now a patchwork of pro- and anti-Saleh enclaves.

It drives Saudis to proliferate
Guzansky 8/1/11 (Yoel, research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. "TEHRAN TESTS SAUDIS' NERVE ON NUKES", LEXIS, SRM)

UNTIL recently it appeared that US security … reactors at a cost of more than $US300 billion.

Saudi prolif spurs regional arms race
Bowman 08 (Bradley, International Affairs Fellow at the CFR. “Chain Reaction: Avoiding a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East.” Report to the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, February 2008. http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CPRT-110SPRT39674/html/CPRT-110SPRT39674.htm.)

A Saudi nuclear weapon might also spur a regional … Saudi Arabia would pursue a nuclear weapon and take steps to decrease this likelihood.

Middle East prolif escalates and goes nuclear
Edelman et al 11 (Eric S., Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Andrew Krepinevich, President of the CSBA. Evan Montgomery, Research Fellow at the CSBA. “The Dangers of a Nuclear Iran: The Limits of Containment.” Foreign Affairs, January 1, 2011. http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran.)

More important, emerging nuclear powers in the … the wrong party, potentially triggering a regional nuclear war.

Kritik

The aff’s orientalist discourse leads to genocide.
Pinar Batur, PhD @ UT-Austin – Prof. of Scociology @ Vassar, ‘7 [“The Heart of Violence: Global Racism, War, and Genocide,” in Handbook of the The Soiology of Racial and Ethnic Relations, eds. Vera and Feagin, p. 446-7]

At the turn of the 20th century, the “Terrible Turk” was the … up with genocide, in Darfur.

Vote Neg to reject their discourse.
BILGIN 2005 – PROF IR BIKENT UNIVERSITY
REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE, PAGE 7
From a critical perspective, thinking differently about … on the subject of research (Wyn Jones 1999:148-50).

EU-NED CP

The European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights should offer all necessary funding to the National Endowment for Democracy to provide democracy assistance for civil law enforcement in Yemen. 

The CP solves better - EU-NED coop prevents backlash to US assistance
Gershman ‘6 – President of the National Endowment for Democracy [Carl Gershman, “The Backlash against Democracy Assistance,” Testimony to the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, Jun 8, 2006, pg. http://www.ned.org/about/board/meet-our-president/archived-remarks-and-presentations/060806]

The new repressive climate in certain states has in fact highlighted … assistance and also leverage additional resources.

Democracy cooperation  is key to stabilize the Black Sea.
Garber ‘8 - Deputy Assistant Secretary of State [Judy Garber, “Transatlantic Perspectives on Black Sea Region: U.S. seeks to promote cooperation among countries in the region,” Keynote Address at the Woodrow Wilson Center Conference, 10 June 2008, pg. http://www.america.gov/st/texttrans-english/2008/June/20080612162948eaifas0.3606836.html#ixzz1S5cj0Z00]

The Black Sea lies at a strategic crossroads of geography and culture, … Europe with the Caspian basin, Central Asia, and the broader Middle East.

Nuclear war.
Amineh ‘3 – Professor of International Relations @ Webster University [Mehdi Parvizi Amineh, Ph.D (Ph. D in Poli Sci @ University of Amsterdam & Senior research fellow and Programme director of the Energy Programme Asia @ International Institute for Asian Studies) “Globalisation, Geopolitics and Energy Security in Central Eurasia and the Caspian Region,” Hand-out of lecture held on June 19 2003, Clingendael International Energy Programme, pg. http://www.clingendael.nl/ciep/events/20030619/20030619_amineh.pdf]

The increasing involvement of the US, the EU, Russia… terrorism in Afghanistan, and the war and crisis in Iraq.
*CEA = post-Soviet Central Eurasia 

Case

Al Qaeda’s on the run – Bin Laden and Awleki’s deaths deprives them of charismatic leaders
Amanpour 9/30/11 – CNN investigative reporter [Christiane Amanpour, “Is al Qaeda on the Run? If So, the Next Step Is How to Defeat, or Negotiate Peace With, the Taliban,” ABC News, Sep 30, 2011 2:42pm, pg. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/09/is-al-qaeda-on-the-run-if-so-the-next-step-is-how-to-defeat-or-negotiate-peace-with-the-taliban/]

Americans woke up this morning to some news that … across the border in Pakistan.

Al-Awlaki death deters
The Times 10/1/11 [Giles Whittell, “Al-Awlaki airstrike reveals a shift in anti-terror strategy,” The Times, October 01, 2011 10:24AM, pg. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/al-awlaki-airstrike-reveals-a-shift-in-anti-terror-strategy/story-e6frg6zo-1226154882971

A top priority for President Obama's revamped security team …assets on the ground and the Pentagon's Joint Special Operations Command.

They do not have a large pool of recruits – They have been demoralized
Reuters 9/30/11 [William Maclean “Analysis - Qaeda woes deepen with loss of top propagandist,” | Fri Sep 30, 2011 5:41pm BST, pg. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/09/30/uk-yemen-awlaki-analysis-idUKTRE78T3CC20110930]

Anna Murison, of Britain's Exclusive Analysis, said that "operationally … believed Awlaki had a "key operational role."

No impact to oil
a. No disruptions-rebel groups lack capabilities and support, tankers will withstand attacks, and attempting groups will be detected-experts agree
Reuters 11, Analysis - Vital shipping lanes can weather turmoil in Yemen, 6/3/11, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/06/03/uk-yemen-shipping-idUKTRE75240220110603

(Reuters) - Merchant ships using a vital trade route … the current level of warships to protect shipping."

b. No risk-pirates lack capabilities, tankers can withstand attacks, and no motivation to link up with Yemen rebels
Reuters 11, Analysis - Vital shipping lanes can weather turmoil in Yemen, 6/3/11, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/06/03/uk-yemen-shipping-idUKTRE75240220110603

Turmoil in Yemen could embolden the Islamist …can still hijack them and fetch fat ransoms."

No indopak
Younger generation, new diplomacy, and new responsibilities make Indo-Pak nuclear war impossible
CSM 8/1/11 (Talking is Good, Christian Science Monitor, http://www.thespec.com/opinion/editorial/article/570954--talking-is-good)

Exhibit A is Hina Rabbani Khar. The thirty-something woman who holds …permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.

Odds of the war going nuclear are ZERO.  Their high probability assessment is media hype  
Enders 02 [David, “Experts say nuclear war still unlikely,” Michigan Daily, 1/30. http://www.michigandaily.com/content/experts-say-nuclear-war-still-unlikely.]

University political science Prof. Ashutosh Varshney becomes … looking for ways out of the current tension," Lieberthal said.

US has suspended its police and military training programs in Yemen – Stability is a prerequisite for them to be reinstated
Benjamin 7/19/11 - Coordinator of the Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism [Daniel Benjamin, “US Policy in Yemen,” Testimony Before the Subcommittee on Near Eastern and South and Central Asian Affairs of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, July 19, 2011, pg. http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/rm/2011/165195.htm]

To help meet our security interests, in 2010, the U.S. … to recommence our assistance when the situation improves.

US Special Forces officers will provide the training  
Ranger Against War 10 [“Yemen Police,” Friday, April 02, 2010, pg. http://rangeragainstwar.blogspot.com/2010/04/yemen-police.html]

Ever-magnanimous with money (cause we've got the presses!), the U.S. will provide $... functions beyond the range of an AK rifle.

Terrorists will attack US troops
Choi 11 – Professor of Political Science @ University of Illinois-Chicago [Seung-Whan Choi, Ph.D. “Does U.S. Military Intervention Reduce or Increase Terrorism?,” Prepared for the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting in Seattle, Washington, September 1-4, 2011]

The empirical results indicate that indiscriminate U.S. military …military involvements and any potential backfiring of its missions. Pg. 24

US revenge attacks will escalate the conflict  
Nevin 03 – Professor of Psychology @ University of New Hampshire [John A. Nevin, “RETALIATING AGAINST TERRORISTS,” Behavior and Social Issues, 12, 109-128 (2003)

Overall, there was no evidence that violent governmental …government troops were killed by terrorists.  Pg. 126-127

WMD terror – Their takeout will not account for cell mutations  
Atran 04 - Professor of psychology, anthropology, and natural resources @ University of Michigan. [Scott Atran (Director of research at the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique in Paris), The Washington Quarterly, 27:3 pp. 67–90]

There is good reason to be anxious. One distinct …meaner mutations of suicide networks and cells.  Pg. 70

Nuclear war
Freilich 10 – Senior Fellow in the International Security Program @ Harvard University [Chuck Freilich (Former Deputy National Security Adviser in Israel.), “The Armageddon Scenario: Israel and the Threat of Nuclear Terrorism,” THE BEGIN-SADAT CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES BAR-ILAN UNIVERSITY Mideast Security and Policy Studies No. 84, April 2010]

The Middle East faces another explosion today – of potential …could give rise to more nuclear terrorism.24 pg. 6-7

Nuclear terrorism doesn’t cause extinction
Mueller ‘10 (John, Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies at the Mershon Center for International Security Studies and a Professor of Political Science at The Ohio State University, A.B. from the University of Chicago, M.A. and Ph.D. @ UCLA, Atomic Obsession – Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda, Oxford University Press, Accessed @ Emory)

In the ensuing decades, massive exaggerations of the physical …an earthquake, one-thousandth the force of a hurricane."

a. No bioterror Death tolls are massively exaggerated.
Leitenberg ‘6 (Milton, Senior research scholar at the University of Maryland, Trained as a Scientist and Moved into the Field of Arms Control in 1966, First American Recruited to Work at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Affiliated with the Swedish Institute of International Affairs and the Center for International Studies Peace Program at Cornell University, Senior Fellow at CISSM, http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0217-27.htm)

The United States has spent at least … more than 11 million people each year?

International multilateralism fails  it's a pipedream
Smith in ‘4 (Lee, Visiting Fellow @ Hudson Institute, “The West's Favorite Fantasy Why do we put so much faith in the myth of multilateralism?” 9-13, http://slate.msn.com/id/2106610/

Multilateralism is a nice idea, but in …that these were always false gods.

Latent power sustains hegemony.
Wohlforth 7  (William, Olin Fellow in International Security Studies at Yale University, Unipolar Stability: The Rules of Power Analysis, A Tilted Balance, Vol. 29 (1), Spring)

US military forces are stretched thin, its budget and … tap potentially large wellsprings of latent power. 

2NC Cites

Bandar’s diplomacy skills and increased sense of Saudi encirclement make increase the probability more – decreased trust in the US spurs Bandar to acquire missiles and nukes
Hannah 11 (John, senior fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Bandar’s return.” Foreign Policy, April 22, 2011. http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/04/22/bandars_return.)

I've lost count of how many times people have asked me … weapons capability, has that time finally arrived? 

He’ll also renew old alliances and terrorist connections, igniting Sunni-Shiite war and wave of terrorist attacks on Iran
Hannah 11 (John, senior fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Bandar’s return.” Foreign Policy, April 22, 2011. http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/04/22/bandars_return.)

Even short of these extreme scenarios, other …unintended consequences of well-financed takfirists run amok. 

Despite some common concerns, current issues like democratization cause conflict
Miller and Wright 11 (Aaron David, Woodrow Wilson International Center; Robin, journalist and foreign policy analyst. “The United States, Saudi Arabia, and the Arab Spring” – interview by Diane Rehm. Carnegie Endowment, June 8, 2011. http://carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=44485&solr_hilite=Saudi+Arabia#.)

 WRIGHT10:14:46And the Saudis felt that when the United States turned …illusions and its  the imperfections in its policies.

Other issues can’t sustain relations – Obama lacks the personal ties of past administrations
Bremmer 11 (Ian, president of the Eurasia Group, political risk research and consulting firm. “Washington’s stark choice: Democracy or Riyadh.” Financial Times, March 17, 2011. 

Events of the past three months have shattered many …, who often oppose Mr Obama’s policies.

US can’t always fall back on economic and security ties – actual Saudi policy can be independent of relations
Marone 9 (David, Master’s candidate. “The U.S. Footprint on the Arabian Peninsula: Can We Avoid a Repeat of the Pullout from Saudi Arabia? (thesis)” Naval Postgraduate School: December 2009. http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA514375&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf.)

 Primarily, historical research explains the dynamics … the United States shares with GCC countries. 

US is currently quiet on the Arab Spring – more active demo promo clashes with Saudi Arabia
Gause 9/12/11 (Gregory, Professor of Political Science at the University of Vermont. “Ten Years After 9/11: Managing US-Saudi Relations.” Carnegie Endowment, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/91211_transcript_SaudiPanelOne.pdf.) 

I think that the United States’ reaction to the Arab … politics of the region should develop.  

Saudis are all bark and no bite on Palestinian Statehood – no backlash in the past – current strain in relations is due to US Arab Spring policy
Satloff 11 (executive director of The Washington Institute. “Filling the Strategy Vacuum in the Middle East.” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, June 14, 2011. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1652.)

 The first such effort  the false bravado of former Saudi …of a bad idea at the UN is patently absurd. 

Saudi Arabia wants an elevated in privileged role in Yemen – challenging them is extremely offensive
Terrill 11 (W. Andrew, Middle East Specialist at the Strategic Studies Institute. “The Conflicts in Yemen and US National Security.” Strategic Studies Institute, January 2011. http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA536229&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf%5Djap.)

A key country that must be considered in … relationship with Yemen can both help and hinder U.S. objectives for that country. 

Saudis don’t care about US demo promo elsewhere – Yemen is special – democracy there risks Shia empowerment
Bhadrakumar 10 (MK, former career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey. “Obama's Yemeni odyssey targets China,” Asia Times, January 9, 2010.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LA09Ak02.html.)

 Yemenis are an intelligent people and are famous …in the oil rich-region in which it has profound interests. 

It’s a significant reduction in their operational capabilities
Reuters 9/30/11 [William Maclean “Analysis - Qaeda woes deepen with loss of top propagandist,” | Fri Sep 30, 2011 5:41pm BST, pg. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/09/30/uk-yemen-awlaki-analysis-idUKTRE78T3CC20110930]

Jeremy Binne, a terrorism specialist at IHS Jane's, said: "Arguably, the … produce slick media for Anglophone audiences."

Major blow to al Qaeda
Las Vegas Sun 9/30/11 [“It’s a major blow to al Qaeda: With al-Awlaki dead, al-Qaida lacks Western voice,” Associated Press, Friday, Sept. 30, 2011 | 5:18 p.m., pg. http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2011/sep/30/al-awlaki-dead-al-qaida-lacks-western-voice/]

SANAA, Yemen  The killings of U.S.-born cleric Anwar al-Awlaki and another … "leader of external operations."

Death of al-Awlaki solves – His recruitment efforts can’t be replaced
CBS News 9/30/11 [Tucker Reals, “Al Qaeda's Anwar al-Awlaki killed in Yemen,” September 30, 2011 5:02 AM, pg. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/09/30/501364/main20113732.shtml]

WASHINGTON - The same U.S. military counterterrorism … jetliner and the planning of other attacks on Americans.

Awlaki killing deprives them of a charismatic leader
Reuters 9/30/11 [William Maclean “Analysis - Qaeda woes deepen with loss of top propagandist,” | Fri Sep 30, 2011 5:41pm BST, pg. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/09/30/uk-yemen-awlaki-analysis-idUKTRE78T3CC20110930]

John J. LeBeau, a former operational officer for the Central … un-charismatic (al Qaeda leader Ayman) Zawahri as its public face."

1NR Cites
No impact to oil shocks
Jin-Seo, 4-17-11
[Cho, South Korea Times, “Beware of Asia's political shock, not Arab oil shock,” http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2011/04/328_85316.html]
*cites Thierry de Montbrial, head of the Institut Francais des Relation Internationals, a major think tank in France

If East Asia is a fault line of a global political economy, another crack may … reasons, such as fear of short-term cuts and political difficulties." 

No war with Russia
Bandow 08 (Doug, former senior fellow at the Cato Institute and former columnist with Copley News Service, 3/“Turning China into the Next Big Enemy.” http://www.antiwar.com/bandow/?articleid=12472)

In fact, America remains a military colossus. The Bush … aren't going to be able to put him back together.

Politics

a) Draws in great powers
Schieffer 8 US Ambassador to Japan [J. Thomas, "Japan and The United States," 1/18, Vital Speeches of the Day, ebsco]

We should remember that Asia is the last place on Earth where great powers can still collide. On the Korean peninsula and in the Taiwan Strait a 'guns of August' scenario still exists that could take us to a nuclear holocaust where hundreds of millions would perish.

b) Hostility and destructive power
Hoge 4 Foreign Affairs editor (James, "A Global Power Shift in the Making," July/August, Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20040701facomment83401/james-f-hoge-jr/a-global-power-shift-in-the-making.html)

This time, the populous states of Asia are the aspirants …will challenge the West's adaptability.

AND – capital is the deciding factor – Obama is able to keep KORUS from getting bogged down in controversial unrelated issues now and the TAA debacle because he has the leadership and capital to do so – that’s KIM.  Here’s more evidence – as long as he has capital he’ll get it done.
Mclarty and Cunningham, 11  1.  chief of staff to President Clinton in 1993-94  2.  aide to President Clinton and to then-Sen. Joseph Biden
THOMAS "MACK" MCLARTY III AND NELSON W. CUNNINGHAM, 1/24/11, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703954004576090290103169526.html

Now, in a few short weeks, Mr. Obama has renegotiated … Shays, for example—to help quarterback the effort.

It’s going to pass now –
A.  External Signals
YONHAP  9 – 22 – 11  
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/09/23/19/0301000000AEN20110923006300315F.HTML

President Lee Myung-bak said Thursday he anticipates South … before submitting the bills implementing the FTAs.

B.  Despite TAA fights – it’ll get done.
WALLACES FARMER  9 – 29 – 11  
Struggle over FTAs Continues. http://wallacesfarmer.com/story.aspx/struggle-over-ftas-continues-8-53532

 The U.S. House of Representatives could soon take up a bill key … become law, how quickly will they be implemented?

D.  Bipart support
WASHINGTON POST  9 – 16 – 11  
Five things to watch on the Hill next week, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/2chambers/post/five-things-to-watch-on-the-hill-next-week/2011/09/16/gIQAUsHxXK_blog.html

 Trade deals: The three long-stalled free-trade agreements with South Korea, Panama … the chance to make the case that they are working on creating jobs. 

Korea will pass it – moving forward
ARIRANG  9 – 29 – 11
 GNP Floor Leader: DP's '10+2' Proposal Close to Being Accepted, http://www.arirang.co.kr/News/News_View.asp?nseq=120909&code=Ne3&category=4

 Korea's ruling party lawmaker says progress has been … by the Korean government to minimize negative effects on local industries before ratification. 

Obama has enough – its about comparisons
Keilar 9-14 [Brianna, Obama to GOP: You're either with me, or you're against me., http://whitehouse.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/14/obama-to-gop-youre-either-with-me-or-youre-against-me/]
It's quite the role reversal.  As the president tries to … on this wager it appears the President Obama is going all in.

Policies to change US foreign policy in the Middle East costs capital – fight strong forces in Washington
Hadar 09 [research fellow in foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute in Washington DC., Leon T. Hadar, Obama Must Look Past Pseudo Events, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2009/05/obama_must_look_past_pseudo_ev.html]
But style and media management aside, it is too …than the new president's style and public relations skills. 

AIPAC hates the plan – straight from the horse’s mouth
Sidman 5-23-11 [Fern Sidman, writer for Israel National News, “AIPAC: Kohr Points to Danger of ‘Arab Spring’” http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/144434]
During the morning session of day two of the…in stark contrast to the true nature of democratic institutions. 

Standing up to AIPAC is political suicide – they’re stronger than the president
Rooney 11 [John K, “AIPAC Sold-out Congress Fawns Over Netanyahu” Retired US Senator Reveals AIPAC’s Power Over the US – Egyptian Socialists Unite, http://cutdc.com/2011/05/26/retired-us-senator-reveals-aipacs-power-over-the-us-egyptian-socialists-unite/]
The US Congress was hanging on every word… of enthusiasm that is thrown on Benjamin Netanyahu.”

Congress opposes the plan – want more clarity in the area
Rettig 11 [Jessica Rettig, Limited Options for United States in Yemen” 6-14-11, http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2011/06/14/limited-options-for-united-states-in-yemen]
According to the Congressional Research Service [CRS], last fiscal year, … and how it would affect the country's economic problems.

1.  Stage is set – they are debating them now
   TEXAS FARM BUREAU  9 – 27 – 11  
   Senate sends TAA to House floor, http://newsradio1420.com/newsradio/newsMaker.asp?storyID=26346
   The stage is set for establishing free trade agreements (FTAs) … all four bills can be signed into law by mid-October.” 

2.  ONLY unforeseen problems
DONGA  9 – 10 – 11  
 “Penny wise and pound foolish,” http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?biid=2011091077078

The U.S. Congress has begun taking steps to … could take effect as early as January next year. 

GOP won’t fight on Jobs
STEINHAUER  9 – 16 – 11   NYT Staff
Jennifer, House G.O.P. Leaders Find Some Things to Like About Obama’s Jobs Plan, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/17/us/politics/house-gop-leaders-find-some-things-to-like-about-obamas-jobs-plan.html

House Republican leaders rejected some main … are good faith discussions, may be possible.”

A. Foreign policy wins count for nothing
Drezner 8-22-11 [Daniel, writer for Foreign Policy, Winners and losers from Libya … this week, http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/22/winners_and_losers_from_libya_this_week]
5) President Obama.  On the one hand, Obama certainly … is not exactly Obama's strong suit at the moment.

B. Our link happens first
Silber 07 [PhD Political Science & Communication – focus on the Rhetoric of Presidential Policy-Making – Prof of Poli Sci – Samford, [Marissa, WHAT MAKES A PRESIDENT QUACK?, Prepared for delivery at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, August 30th-September 2nd, 2007, UNDERSTANDING LAME DUCK STATUS THROUGH THE EYES OF THE MEDIA AND POLITICIANS]
Important to the discussion of political capital is whether … definition of a lame duck President must be developed. 

Winners don’t win – controversies hurt capital – Obama will do a poor job spinning the plan
GERSON 12 – 19 – 10  Washington Post Political Commentator
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/16/AR2010121604039.html
In some areas - such as education reform or the tax deal … sabotaged by his sense of superiority.

Capital is limited – agencies, personnel, and time
Lewis 10 [David E., Professor of Political Science and Law at Vanderbilt University, The Politics of Presidential Appointments: Political Control and Bureaucratic Performance, Princeton University Press, Google Books]
Second, presidents do not have unlimited ability to … raises red flags for Congress. Presidents must choose their battles.