DA
SKFTA will pass – votes are coming around
Hooper 9-10 [Molly K., writer for The Hill, “Obama-backed trade pacts could be heavy lift for House GOP” ]
And anti-trade interest groups … been sounding out lawmakers informally.
Capitals key.
Wharton 11 [Wharton School’s Online Business Journal – Editorial Post – including the Deupty Dean & Executive Director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Business School, U.S.-South Korea Trade Pact: A Turning Point for American Exports?, ]
The Tea Party Factor During … and foreign policy for decades.
Their increase will be controversial – Congress will mandate hearings and a justification
Wittes 08 – Senior fellow for Middle … Role in Building Arab Democracy, 2008, pg. 150]
Finally, congressional understanding and patience … and respectful of these needs. y
FTA key to the alliance – South Korea sees failure as a betrayal
Yonhap News 8-29-11 [Lee Chi-dong, Severe damage to alliance expected if FTA fails: CRS, ]
WASHINGTON, Aug. 29 (Yonhap) -- A collapse … and Northeast Asia is declining."
US-South Korean relations are key to regional stability
Blair and Hanley ’01 (Admiral Dennis C., Commander-in-Chief – US Pacific Command, and Dr. John. T. Strategic Adviser – Asia, Washington Quarterly, Winter, Lexis)
The way ahead in Northeast … in security and peaceful development.
Asian conflict triggers global nuclear war
Dibb 01 (Paul, Prof – Australian National University, Strategic Trends: Asia at a Crossroads, Naval War College Review, Winter,)
The areas of maximum danger … when confronted with major crises.
CP 1
The European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights should offer all necessary funding to the National Endowment for Democracy to provide funding and training resources to anti-corruption programs for Egypt.
The CP solves better - EU-NED coop prevents backlash to US assistance
Gershman ‘6 – President of the National Endowment for Democracy [Carl Gershman, “The Backlash against Democracy Assistance,” Testimony to the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, Jun 8, 2006, pg. ]
The new repressive climate in … and also leverage additional resources.
Democracy cooperation stabilizes the Black Sea region – It’s a conduit for instability throughout Eurasia
Garber ‘8 - Deputy Assistant Secretary of State [Judy Garber, “Transatlantic Perspectives on Black Sea Region: U.S. seeks to promote cooperation among countries in the region,” Keynote Address at the Woodrow Wilson Center Conference, 10 June 2008, pg. ]
The Black Sea lies at a … , and the broader Middle East.
Boom goes the dynamite
Amineh ‘3 – Professor of International Relations @ … .]
The increasing involvement of the US, … war and crisis in Iraq.
*CEA = post-Soviet Central Eurasia
K
The aff’s orientalist discourse leads to genocide.
Pinar Batur, PhD @ UT-Austin – Prof. … Relations, eds. Vera and Feagin, p. 446-7]
At the turn of the … up with genocide, in Darfur.
Vote Neg to reject their discourse.
BILGIN 2005 – PROF IR BIKENT UNIVERSITY
REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST A CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE, PAGE 7
From a critical perspective, thinking differently … security in theory and practice.
(continued) PAGE 58
Emphasising the mutually interactive relationship … subject of research (Wyn Jones 1999:148-50).
CP 2
The Republic of Turkey should allocate necessary funding and training resources to anti-corruption programs for Egypt.
Turkish leadership is unraveling – independent action on the Arab Spring revives credibility and prevents Turkey from realigning with the West.
Rosenberg 11 [David, Turkey’s Middle East drive falters in Arab Spring, ]
The rival Palestinian factions, Hamas … favor of the Middle East.”
Perceived closeness with the US undermines Turkish soft power and its democratic model. It paves the way for Iranian hegemony
Ayoob 11 - Professor of International Relations @ … heading toward a Turko-Persian future.
DA
Iran influence down but not out—US regional interference risks disrupting the current slide
Krieger 7/27/11 (Hilary, Poll: Arab views of Iran plummet in wake of Arab spring, Jerusalem Post, )
In 2006, after the Lebanon war … be for it to interfere.
Egypt is distancing itself from the US—this is the key to checking Iranian regional influence
Freeman ’11, Ambassador and president emeritus of the Middle East Policy Council (Chas W., Jr., The Arab Reawakening: Strategic Implications, Middle East Policy, Vol. XVIII, No. 2, Summer)
Egypt, in particular, has been … politics are sure to follow.
Unchecked Iran guarantees war with the US
Smith ‘7 [Travis Smith, “Offensive Realism, Hegemony and Iran,” Theory & Analysis, Sunday, February 25, 2007, pg.]
As Mearsheimer mentions in The … on a scale implying the world.
Cred
The plan will be used by the military to completely discredit groups receiving aid—all assistance is documented by the security establishment—accusations of foreign influence are deadly for reformers
Washington Post 7/30/11 (Leila Fadel and Ernesto Londono, Military stokes xenophobia in Egypt, )
CAIRO — Facing mounting challenges and … Council of the Armed Forces.
“The military council is deliberately creating an atmosphere of deep suspicion and hostility toward anyone that dares criticize its performance,” said Hossam Bahgat, director of the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights.
Military leaders have in particular sought to disparage the April 6 movement, one of the most active in the mosaic of groups that brought down Mubarak in February. Army officers have asserted that the group’s members received military training in Serbia and are receiving U.S. funding — allegations that the group denies and the military has not publicly substantiated.
For any group seeking U.S. assistance, … amounts they’ve received from abroad.”
The relationship is done—US interference can only hurt—the best thing they can do is stay away
Cook ’11, Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (Steven A., The U.S.-Egyptian Breakup, Foreign Affairs, 2/2/11, )
Where, then, does this leave … the Free Officers took over.
US has no credibility because of past dictator support—aid arouses suspicion and risks fueling corruption
Goldstone ’11, the Virginia E. and John T. Hazel, Jr., Professor at George Mason University's School of Public Policy (Jack A., Understanding the Revolutions of 2011, Foreign Affairs, May/Jun 2011, Vol. 90 Issue 3, p8-16)
Noting that high unemployment spurred … technical assistance in institution building.
No matter what the aff is, it’ll be spun negatively.
Terrill, 6-27-11
[Dr. W. Andrew, Middle East specialist, Strategic Studies Institute, “The Arab Upheavals and the Future of the U.S. Military Policies and Presence in the Middle East and the Gulf,” ]
In an insightful if sardonic … as something of a “hero-nation.”4
No impact to a nuclear Iran – they will restrain themselves out of fear of retaliation by the US
Lindsay and Takeyh 10 [James M., Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair, Council on Foreign Relations, and Ray, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations, "After Iran Gets the Bomb," Foreign Affairs; Mar/Apr2010, Vol. 89 Issue 2, p33-49, EBSCO]
A nuclear Iran might also … deter Iran from acting impetuously.
History of nuclear arms presence and conflict in the Mideast proves -- Iran nuclearization won’t cause an arms race
Bahgat 11 (Gawdat, professor at the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University. “A Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East: Myth or Reality?” Mediterranean Quarterly 22.1, Winter 2011. .)
Nuclear Proliferation in the … ignite a regional nuclear arms race.
New proliferators will build small arsenals -- they’re stable.
Seng ’98 (Jordan, PhD Candidate in Pol. Sci. – U. Chicago, Dissertation, “STRATEGY FOR PANDORA'S CHILDREN: STABLE NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION AMONG MINOR STATES”, p. 203-206)
However, this "state of affairs" … if a few more people have t
Prolif will be slow even in the new era.
Tepperman ‘9 (Jonathon, former Deputy Managing Ed. Foreig Affairs and Assistant Managing Ed. Newsweek, Newsweek, “Why Obama should Learn to Love the Bomb”, 44:154, 9-7, L/N)
The risk of an arms … decision to press that button.
Stability
Democracy assistance is useless—it’s valuable only when unnecessary, doesn’t help Egyptians’ situation, and has no impact on military power-plays
Peters ’11, assistant professor in the department of government at Wesleyan University (Anne Mariel, , Foreign Policy Mideast, 2/14/11, )
One of the most enduring … democracy and governance funding can do.
Numerous impediments to a successful democratic transition in Egypt
The Economist 7/14/11 (The Arab Awakening: Revolution Spinning in the Wind, )
Yet for all their drama, … things as food and energy.
Multiple structural problems with Egypt’s economy doom democratic efforts
Pillar 6/6/11, director of graduate studies at Georgetown University's Security Studies Program and a former national intelligence officer for the Near East and South Asia (Paul, The Coming Disillusionment in Egypt, The National Interest, )
The expectations for the revolution … , not just a year or two.
No global escalation
Dyer, 02 – Ph.D. in Military and Middle Eastern History from the University of London and former professor at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst and Oxford University (Gwynne, Queen’s Quarterly, “The coming war”, December, questia)
All of this indicates an … are out of the business.
Conflict will not escalate – casualties low and empirically false
Luttwak 7 senior adviser at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (Edward “The middle of nowhere”, May 2007, Prospect)
Why are middle east experts … a season of conflict in Darfur.
The empirical death toll is minimal.
Leitenberg ‘5 (Milton, Senior research scholar at the University of Maryland, Trained as a Scientist and Moved into the Field of Arms Control in 1966, First American Recruited to Work at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Affiliated with the Swedish Institute of International Affairs and the Center for International Studies Peace Program at Cornell University, Senior Fellow at CISSM, ASSESSING THE BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AND BIOTERRORISM THREAT, )
The conclusions from these independent … prepared within the preceding 24 months.
No Saudi instability.
Obaid 3/10/2011 [NAWAF, senior fellow at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, There Will Be No Uprising in Saudi Arabia. Foreign Policy.
]
The past few months have … the kingdom's security and safety."
Oil shocks empirically denied.
Jin-Seo, 4-17-11
[Cho, South Korea Times, “Beware of Asia's political shock, not Arab oil shock,” ]
*cites Thierry de Montbrial, head of the Institut Francais des Relation Internationals, a major think tank in France
If East Asia is a fault … -term cuts and political difficulties."
No transition wars.
D. Scott Bennett and Timothy Nordstrom, February 2k. Department of Political Science Professors at Pennsylvania State. “Foreign Policy Substitutability and Internal Economic Problems in Enduring Rivalries,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Ebsco.
In this analysis, we focus … account for substitutability between them.
