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Emory KeSe
1AC – Plan Text



The United States federal government should substantially increase support to strengthen capacity for Syrian political opposition groups.

1AC – Civil War

ADVANTAGE ONE  CIVIL WAR

Assad’s escalating sectarian tensions to stay in power  unchecked instability spills over into the broader Middle East.
Nasr, 8-28-11
[Vali, professor at Tufts University, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the author of “The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future,” “If the Arab Spring Turns Ugly,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss&pagewanted=all]

THE Arab Spring is a hopeful … Iraq, it is already happening.

Crackdowns are becoming increasingly violent and reform is impossible  the longer Assad stays in power, the more likely it is that that escalates.
Mideast Reports, 7-20-11
[“Moving Syria Forward: US Policy Options in Syria,” http://www.mideastreports.org/blog/2011/7/20/moving-syria-forward-us-policy-options-in-syria.html]

The Syrian revolution, which few … for the post-regime era.

Regime collapse is inevitable  democracy assistance stabilizes the transition and prevents sectarian escalation.
Doran & Shaikh, August ‘11
[Michael S., senior fellow in the Saban Center, Brookings Institution, Salman, director of the Brookings Doha Center and fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, “Getting Serious in Syria,” August, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1001]

The Arab Spring threatens to … process of transition to begin.

Sustained unrest draws in Israel, Iran, and risks CBW theft.
Sharpe, 4-28-11
[Jeremy, Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs, Congressional Research Service, “Syria: Issues for the 112th Congress and Background on U.S. Sanctions,” http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33487.pdf]

Foreign observers are now debating … supply of riot control equipment.”14

Syria-Israel conflict guarantees WMD use  Hezbollah and Hamas will get involved and impact defense doesn’t apply.
Ceren, 8-1-11
[Omri, PhD candidate at USC, founder and editor of Mere Rhetoric, a political blog dealing with the geopolitical, cultural, and economic dimensions of the global war between the West and political Islam, has been published in international outlets such as the Jerusalem Post, and his investigative journalism has been cited by the Associated Press, Reuters, CNN, the BBC, the New York Times, and other outlets, “Just How Bad Could a Syrian Collapse Get?” http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/08/01/syrian-collapse-israel/]

A war between Israel and … Israeli politicians to overreact less.

That risks nuclear winter.
Morgan, ‘9
[Dennis Ray, Professor of Current Affairs @ Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, South Korea, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race”, Futures, Volume 41, Issue 10, December 2009, Pages 683-693, ScienceDirect]

In a remarkable website on nuclear … and fragile ecosphere as well.

Goes global quickly.
Corsi, ‘7
[Jerome, “Syria ready with bio-terror if U.S. hits Iran,” WorldNetDaily.com, March 5, 2007, WorldNetDaily,http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=54542]
cites Dr. Jill Dekker, director of the Public Health Preparedness program for the European Homeland Security Association under the French High Committee for Civil Defense, a consultant to the NATO Defense Establishment in bio-warfare and counter terrorism, member of the board of advisors of the Intelligence Summit

When asked how Syria might … what the weapon looks like."

Extinction.
Singer, ‘1
[Clifford E., Director of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security at the University of Illinois at Urbana—Champaign, (Professor of nuclear engineering @ University of Illinois at Urbana—Champaign), “Will Mankind Survive the Millennium?,” The Bulletin of the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Volume XIII / Number 1 / Spring 2001 pg. http://www.acdis.uiuc.edu/research/S&Ps/2001-Sp/S&P_XIII/Singer.htm]

In recent years the fear … and if this is achieved.

The plan is vital to gaining Alawite support  key to prevent sectarian violence.
Abrams, 8-2-11
[Elliott, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, CFR, “Preventing Civil War in Syria,” http://www.cfr.org/syria/preventing-civil-war-syria]

Finally, the U.S. should be pressing … -Assad era that is coming.

That’s speeds up Assad’s collapse.
Kodmani, 7-31-11
[Bassma, executive director of the Arab Reform Initiative, “To Topple Assad, It Takes a Minority,” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/01/opinion/to-topple-assad-it-takes-a-minority.html]

AFTER four months of popular … join the revolt en masse.

Political training stabilizes the transition and contains violence.
Tabler & Karlin, 5-25-2011
[Andrew J., Next Generation fellow in the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, Mara, “Obama's Push-Pull Strategy: How Washington Should Plan for a Post-Assad Syria,” http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC06.php?CID=1638]

As the United States works … States' most problematic regional adversaries.


1AC – Iran

ADVANTAGE TWO  IRAN

US is ceding leadership on Syria to Turkey  prevents effective policy and destroys US regional influence  only the plan restores it.
Badran, 8-16-11
[Tony, research fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “Obama’s Options in Damascus: Why It’s Time to Rein in Syria – and Turkey”]

“Syria…is engaging … remains the United States’ alone.

Leading from behind allows Iran to cement influence in post-Assad Syria.
Rubin, 8-17-11
[Michael, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School's Center for Civil-Military Relations; and a senior editor of the Middle East Quarterly, former staff adviser for Iran and Iraq in OSD/ISA/NESA at the Pentagon, B.S. degree in biology, PhD in history from Yale, previously worked as a lecturer in history at Yale University, Hebrew University in Jerusalem, and at three different universities in northern Iraq, “Iran Strengthens Its Hold on Syria,”http:www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/08/17/iran-shia-iraq-syria/]

On February 15, 1991, during a campaign stop … and whomever Assad leaves behind.

US inaction alienates the opposition  demonstrating unconditional resolve is key to leverage US influence.
Hamid, 7-13-11
[Shadi, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and a fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. “President Obama's Syria Problem,” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/07/president-obamas-syria-problem/241861/]

After regime thugs attacked the U.S. … might still become our friends.

US support is key  the aff reverses any residual anti-Americanism.
Tobin, 7-8-11
[Jonathan S., Senior Online Editor of Commentary magazine, chief politics blogger, former editor in chief of the Jewish Exponent in Philadelphia, columns have regularly appeared in the Jerusalem Post and many other newspapers, over the course of his career, he has won more than 50 journalism awards for commentary, editorial writing, and arts criticism, named both the best editorial columnist and the best arts critic in Philadelphia by the Society of Professional Journalists, has lectured on campuses and to organizations around the country and has appeared on CNN, FOX News Channel, the FOX Business Channel, the BBC, and numerous other media outlets “U.S. Support Doesn’t Taint Syrian Protests,”http:www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/07/08/american-support-doesn%E2%80%99t-taint-syrian-protests/]

U.S. Ambassador Robert S. Ford and … know they are not alone.

Independently, democracy assistance deters Iran.
POMED, 7-15-11
[“POMED Notes: Sen. Graham on the War on Terror,” http://pomed.org/blog/2011/06/pomed-notes-sen-graham-on-the-war-on-terror.html/]

Graham also said that “isolationism … President Bashar al-Assadwith a democratic regime.

Iran’s actively pursuing hegemony throughout the region  Syria is a critical front that solidifes US influence.
Satloff, 6-23-11
[Robert, Executive Director, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Testimony prepared for delivery to the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs Thursday, June 23, 2011 “Iran and Syria: Next Steps” By Dr. Robert Satloff Executive Director, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy,” http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/sat062311.pdf]

Four months ago, I had the … a strategic achievement of immense proportion.

Supporting the opposition ends Iranian hegemony peacefully.
Alhomayed, 6-24-11
[Tariq, editor in chief of Asharq Al Awsat, London, “Curbing Iranian influence without conflict,” http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2011/06/24/154651.html]

Thus we could assume today, … opportunity? That is the question!

Iranian influence destroys US control of the Persian Gulf  devastates hegemony.
O’Donnell, ‘9
[Thomas, Universidad Central de Venezuela, Centro de Estudios del Desarrollo (UCV-CENDES), Caracas “The Political Economy of Oil in the U.S.‐Iran Crisis: U.S. globalized oil interests vs. Iranian regional interests,” October, http://www.gpia.info/files/u16/O_Donnell_2009-05.pdf]

Each of these components acts … U.S.-Iran confrontation must be analyzed.

Unchecked Iran guarantees nuclear miscalculation.
Ben-Meir, ‘6
[Alon, Professor of international relations @ Center for Global Affair, New York University, “Ending Iranian Defiance,” New York (UPI) Feb 06, 2007, pg. http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Ending_Iranian_Defiance_999.html]

That Iran stands today able … not halting its nuclear program.

Global nuclear wars.
Kagan, ‘7
[Robert, Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “End of Dreams, Return of History” Policy Review,http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/8552512.html#n10]

This is a good thing, and … will provide an easier path.

Tech is key  US provision establishes common trust and builds alliances that edge out Iranian interests.
Weiss, 6-7-2011
[Michael, director of communications at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank that promotes democratic geopolitics, spokesman for Just Journalism, which examines how Israel and the Middle East are portrayed in the U.K. media, “Meet the Syrian Opposition,” http://www.slate.com/id/2296323/pagenum/all/#p2]

There are plenty of geopolitical … who might someday become allies.

2AC – Regime Collapse Inev

Regime collapse inevitable -- just a question of how to manage transitional stability.

Shaikh, 8-4-11

[Salman, Director – Brookings Institution, Doha Center, “Syria’s Assad Should be an International Pariah,”http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0804_syria_shaikh.aspx?]

An often-heard sentiment in … country into a state of chaos.

2AC – AT Islamist Takeover

Very few Muslim Brotherhood people and they have no power and will acquiesce to secular goals.

Weiss, 6-7-2011

[Michael, director of communications at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank that promotes democratic geopolitics, spokesman for Just Journalism, which examines how Israel and the Middle East are portrayed in the U.K. media, “Meet the Syrian Opposition,” http://www.slate.com/id/2296323/pagenum/all/#p2]

The Islamist quotient in the … representative power are more definitive.

2AC – AT Golan

Status quo untenable and irreversible.

Abdulhamid, 5-25-11

[Ammar, Syrian Exile and Opposition Leader, Founder of the Tharwa Foundation, “TURMOIL IN SYRIA AND THE REGIONAL CONSEQUENCES,” http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/Syria_transcript.pdf]

What we happen right now … . And a new era has begun.

No chance now. Cmonnn.

Slavin, 4-26-11

[Barbara, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, senior diplomatic reporter for USA Today, the Author of “Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies,”  “Friends Or Foes, Syria's Neighbours Wary Of Assad's Ouster,” http://www.globalissues.org/news/2011/04/26/9416]

For the foreseeable future, Alpher … may not last,' he said.

2AC – AT Topicality

USAID says we’re T

Huber, 08 Hebrew University of Jerusalem Department of International Relations

Daniela, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 43–62,  March 2008, “Democracy Assistance in the Middle East and North Africa: A Comparison of US and EU Policies”, p. 45-6, http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/69109__790479070.pdf, accessed 6-3-11

What is Democracy Assistance? The … efficient, responsive, and accountable. (USAID, 2005: 4)

2AC – AT NK Regime Change DA

small arsenals -- they’re stable.

Seng ’98 (Jordan, PhD Candidate in Pol. Sci. – U. Chicago, Dissertation, “STRATEGY FOR PANDORA'S CHILDREN: STABLE NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION AMONG MINOR STATES”, p. 203-206)

However, this "state of affairs" … decision to press that button.

No chance of a revolution. All their impacts are empirically denied.

Feigenbaum ‘9  (Evan, Senior Fellow for East, Central, and South Asia – CFR, questioned at Washingtonpost.com, “N. Korea To Boycott Nuclear Talks, Restart Weapons Plant”, 4-19, L/N)

Harrisburg, Pa.: If China fears instability … state, refugee flows, and so on.

2AC – AT Coercion

Role of the ballot is the evaluation of policy simulation and to maximize the lives saved. 

Cummisky 96 (David, professor of philosophy at Bates College, Kantian Consequentialism, pg. 145)

We must not obscure the … sacrifice some to save many.

2AC – AT Saudi DA

Arab Spring makes Saudi relations low now, US action on Syria revitalizes them.

Mead, 4-23-11

[Walter Russell, Henry Kissinger senior fellow for US foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, “War In Syria Next?”http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2011/04/23/war-in-syria-next/]

Even though the US and … record in the Middle East.

Absolutely no way Saudis will proliferate, even if Iran does first -- hurts their economy, no tech, no desire to

Lippman 8/5/11 (Thomas, senior adjunct scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. “Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Policy.” August 5, 2011. http://www.susris.com/2011/08/05/saudi-arabia%E2%80%99s-nuclear-policy-lippman/)

It is widely believed among … all weapons of mass destruction.

2AC – AT EU CP

doesn’t solve civil war -- Assad escalates violence based off of US inaction.

WP, 8-1-11

[“Syria’s Ramadan massacre,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/syrias-ramadan-massacre/2011/08/01/gIQAZHCKoI_story.html]

WHEN THE SYRIAN regime lost … people of Hama with impunity?

EU action won’t check Iran or Hezbollah -- US action is key to that shit.

Dergham, 9-4-11

[Raghida, Columnist and Senior Diplomatic Correspondent, Al Hayat, “How Will Iran and Hezbollah Respond to the Syrian Regime’s Predicament?” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/raghida-dergham/how-will-iran-and-hezboll_1_b_947499.html]

New York - The campaign waged … nor through its Lebanese mouthpieces.

2AC – AT SKFTA

Seriously no war.

Kang, ‘10

[David, professor of international relations and business and director of the Korean Studies Institute at the University of Southern California, “Korea’s New Cold War,” 12-31, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/koreas-new-cold-war-4653]

However, despite dueling artillery barrages … the fighting into a general war.

No SKFTA – tea baggers, unions, textile industry

Hooper 9-10 [Molly K., writer for The Hill, “Obama-backed trade pacts could be heavy lift for House GOP”http://thehill.com/homenews/house/180751-obama-backed-trade-pacts-could-be-heavy-lift-for-house-gop]

House Republican leaders face a tough … senior members,” the source said.

Won’t pass – democrats

Good 9-17 [Chris, associate editor at The Atlantic, where he writes for the Politics channel, The Atlantic, Republicans Support Obama's Trade Agenda. Do Democrats? http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/09/republicans-support-obamas-trade-agenda-do-democrats/245248/]

Next week, Senate Majority Leader … support among his Democratic allies.

Obama’s new millionaire tax causes Congressional fights

NYT 9-17 [Jackie Calmes, Obama Tax Plan Would Ask More of Millionaires, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/18/us/politics/obama-tax-plan-would-ask-more-of-millionaires.html

With a special joint congressional committee … from wages than from investments.

Capital loss on Syria inevitable.

Dergham, 9-4-11

[Raghida, Columnist and Senior Diplomatic Correspondent, Al Hayat, “How Will Iran and Hezbollah Respond to the Syrian Regime’s Predicament?” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/raghida-dergham/how-will-iran-and-hezboll_1_b_947499.html]

New York - The campaign waged … in Damascus to breathe through.

Bipartisan support for the aff. 

Richter, 7-28-11

[Paul, LA Times, “Tough bipartisan questioning by Congress of U.S. policy on Syria,” http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/middleeast/la-fg-us-syria-20110728,0,7950584.story?]

Reporting from Washington— Senior State … and North Africa this year.

Winners win.

Blow, 9-9-11 

[Charles, writer for the NYT, Rise of the Fallen? http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/10/opinion/blow-rise-of-the-fallen.html]

So why does it feel … take fire from both sides.